AFC EAST
1. Patriots. Brady's back, and I'm pretty sure he's all the way back, which means big seasons for him, Moss, and Welker. The defense might be an issue this season, and the RB situation is confusing (way to go Maroney) but will probably end up with three or four guys splitting the yards and TDs, but they're certainly good enough to win the division and maybe the whole thing.
2. Dolphins. The preeminant Wildcat running team adds Pat White, perhaps the best dual threat QB in college football since Major Harris or Rickey Foggie? This is going to be spectacular, whether for good or ill. I'm betting good, and wouldn't be shocked to see the Dolphins make the playoffs and White become responsible for getting Teebo drafted in round 1 rather than round 3.
3. Jets. Mark Sanchez will be a good QB. Mark Sanchez will not be a good QB this year. Thomas Jones is 100 years old.
4. Bills. See, the thing is, you need a quarterback to win. Trent Edwards is not a real quarterback. Even worse is that the trade of Jason Peter means the Bills will have five brand new starters on the O-Line this year, and they didn't exactly sign a gang of Steve Hutchinsons. How long do you think T.O. is going to stay well-behaved in this situation? Honestly, this might be the most likely team to go 0-16 out of the whole bunch.
AFC NORTH
1. Steelers. They make almost no changes, and why should they? The only position I see them falling off in is at RB, where Willie Parker is about to fall off a cliff into Shaun Alexander-land, they have a high quality replacement waiting in the wings in Rashard Mendenhall.
2. Bengals. This is the team that I think will surprise. Carson is back, and coming with him will be Ochocinco who is "revitalized" which really just means he's a bitchy little whiner who wouldn't try last year because they sucked and now everyone thinks they will be good again so he will be good again - and I agree. Plus the defense isn't half bad, actually, at least not as bad as you think. Playoffs, baby. Believe.
3. Ravens. Mark Clayton still hasn't developed and Derrick Mason is hanging around, but Ray Rice should develop into a star this year. What happened to McGahee anyway?
4. Browns. Ok, maybe this is the team with the best chance to go 0-16, unless Brady Quinn has a magic arm. My sources say no. Expect James Davis to take Jamal's job by week 8.
1. Colts. Dropping Marvin Harrison is actually going to help the team, trying to shoehorn an old, broken down murderer into game plans hurt both Reggie Wayne and Anthony Gonzalez. Need proof? In the game Marvin missed last season, Peyton Manning threw for 364 yards and 3 TDs, completing 29 of 34 pass attempts. After 2004 it's hard to predict Peyton to "have his best year" ever again, but this could be the season.
2. Texans. Is this finally the year? It will be as long as Schaub stays healthy. These guys are pretty much solid all around, with the best receiver in football in Andre Johnson and a good offense and defense all the way around. If Matty can play all 16, they'll make the playoffs for the first time.
3. Titans. Once again, I refuse to believe in Tennessee. Collins isn't very good and has nobody to throw to, and when he gets hurt and/or falls off the wagon Vince Young is worse than T-Jax. LenDale White lost weight which means he's now slow and has no power instead of being slow with power, and Chris Johnson might be the most overrated running back in the league. The defense is good though.
4. Jags. Tough to put them fourth, but this is a very good division this year. MJD was going to be a star this year, but now he's banged up and will probably suck. Way to pick him in the top 3, everybody in America.
AFC WEST
1. Chargers. The demise of Ladainian Tomlinson has been greatly exaggerated. He was hampered big time by injuries last season, and still managed to put up decent numbers. This year Sproles should cut into his touches a bit, but assuming he's healthy he should return to an elite level in a big way. Plus, this division is absolute garbage after San Diego and they should win it without any problem.
2. Chiefs. Second place my default, there isn't a single other decent team in this division. The Chiefs get the nod because they have a decent QB with a good target to throw to in Bowe, but really anybody could get second here - and likely with a losing record.
3. Raiders. I flip flopped the Raiders and the Broncos in this spot a bunch of times, but in the end I'm giving the Raiders the edge. Both teams have god awful defenses, ok O-Lines and questions at QB, but while Tom Cable seemingly has the Raiders showing a new dedication and a positive attitude, the Broncos seem like a complete mess right now (of course, one Raider coach punching out another has them not too far behind). Either McFadden or Michael Bush will blow up this year, I'm just not sure which one.
4. Broncos. See above. Outside of Champ Bailey and Eddie Royal, everybody on this team sucks.
NFC EAST
1. Giants. An already good team with an excellent running game and defense took steps to shore up it's receiving core by taking Hakeem Nicks and Ramses Barden in the draft. Nicks has all the tools, and once he's up to speed on the mental game he should take over the #1 reciever role and remind people of Anquan Boldin.
2. Eagles. A very good defense needs help from the offense, and it looks like they will get it. Pick ups of Jeremy Maclin (the second best rookie WR after Nicks) and LaSean McCoy will pay off, with McCoy able to fill in and maybe even outplay Brian Westbrook, who will inevitably get hurt at some point.
3. Cowboys. Who exactly is Tony Homo going to throw the ball too outside of Jason Witten? The Cowboy receiving corps is terrible. Patrick Crayton? Miles Austin? These guys are garbage, and their "#1 reciever" Roy Williams is nothing more than a highly touted mediocre player mascarading as the go-to-guy (much like Nick Blackburn). Expect to see Felix Jones cut deeply in Marion Barber's carries, if not outright take the job away. Then Barber and Maroney can call each other to cry.
4. Redskins. Another awesome defense (holy crap this division is loaded on D) gets better with Albert Haynesworth and Brian Orakpo joining the d-line - this might seriously be the best defense in the league, but it doesn't matter. For the 10th year in a row the passing game is in the hands of Jason Campbell, Santana Moss, and Antwaan Randle-El. That hasn't work before, and it's not going to magically click now.
NFC NORTH
1. Vikings. Fine, I'm in. You got me. I believe. The defense is the best in history, Favre has another magic year in his arm, AP could run for 2,000+, and Percy Harvin will make everybody forget how good Randy Moss was as a rookie. I've been sucked in. And I hate myself for it.
2. Packers. Aaron Rodgers looks like the real deal and Charles Woodson is apparently ageless. However Ryan Grant sucks and the Packers switching from a 4-3 to a 3-4 defense without bothering to change any of there personnel. Sounds like a rebuilding year.
3. Bears. There's a lot of chatter about the Bears being good, but just as their offense is improving, their defense is declining (16th in points allowed last year) and aren't getting any younger. Cutler might have a good year, but with no actual receivers on the team the offensive improvement won't offset the now craptastic defense.
4. Lions. Rookie coach, rookie QB, and almost a completely new defensive squad doesn't add up to a very good year. The good news is, the Lions will be improved. The bad news is, it would be impossible not to be. Stafford to Megatron could end up a pretty solid connection (where else is he going to throw it?)
NFC SOUTH
1. Falcons. Everybody is in love with Atlanta this year, and you can count me in. Matt Ryan, Mike Turner, and Roddy White are the next Manning, Edge, and Harrison, and adding in Tony Gonzalez is going to make this one of the best offenses in the league. If the defense is any good they could be super bowl contenders.
2. Saints. Break out season for Robert Meachem. You heard it here first.
3. Panthers. These guys were 12-4 last season? Must have been a huge fluke, because other than Julius Peppers, Steve Smith and DeAngelo there's nobody good here. The defense is terrible and not improving, and Delhomme has been pretending to be an actual QB for years. This is a crash and burn season.
4. Bucs. Byron Leftwich at QB? Derrick Ward/Cadillac Williams/Earnest Graham as your RBs? A terrible O-Line? I have no idea what's going on here. It's like they're tanking to get a better draft pick. Dawger, your thoughts?
NFC WEST
1. 49ers. Tough call in this division, but a commitment to running the ball down everybody's throat with Frank Gore sounds pretty good to me - guy is a stud. The defense is pretty decent too. I see Shaun Hill having a caretaker Trent Dilfer-like season, which should be good enough to get San Fran into the playoffs.
2. Seahawks. I've written about Hasselbeck here before, no need to do it again. I also expect Edge to give Seattle a running threat they haven't had since Shaun Alexander turned 80 - no, not to that level or even a high level, but more like a respectful level.
3. Cardinals. Warner gets hurt by week six and Leinart sucks - and so does their defense.
4. Rams. Yet another team who could threaten the 0-16 season. It's entirely possible Steve Jackson could account for 90% of the yards gained by the Rams this year. Don't buy into the Donnie Avery hype.
Wild Card: Steelers over Texans, Colts over Bengals, Falcons over Eagles, Saints over 49ers.
Divisional: Colts over Chargers, Patriots over Steelers, Vikings over Falcons, Giants over Saints.
Championship Round: Colts over Pats, Vikings over Giants
Super Bowl: Colts over Vikings.
I would also just like to add here that I burned my hand two days ago with boiling water making Cup O' Noodles for lunch, so keep that in mind when reviewing these predictions.
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