In news that is super not shocking to anybody who has been paying attention, the nation's #20 point guard (#90 overall) according to Rivals and Gopher target Naadir Tharpe signed on with the Kansas Jayhawks today.
Tharpe had been a big target of the Gophers, and at one point they were looking like the front runners to land him. He seemingly had cut his list to Minnesota and Rutgers, or at least those were the only two schools he had made plans to make an official visit to see, but ended up canceling his visit to Rutgers after they signed a different point guard, leaving the Gophers in prime position to secure a commitment. Despite reporting that he had a great time and really liked Tubby, Tharpe never declared his intention to enroll at the U, and the writing was on the wall.
As more time passed, Tharpe garnered more and more interest with teams like NC State and Oklahoma sniffing around, but then came the big blow: enter Kansas. After their higher rated higher profile point guard targets went elsewhere, the Jayhawks went after Tharpe and it didn't take long for them to woo their strumpet. Josiah Turner (#2 PG) chose Arizona on September 19th, Anthony Wroten (#8) chose Washington on October 13th, and suddenly Bill Self was after Tharpe. He scheduled a visit to Lawrence for October 22nd, but apparently didn't need it, because after Self called Monday night to extend an offer he didn't even take 48 hours to accept.
So basically the Gophers are the nice, safe, mildy attractive chick while Kansas is the super hot chick with the killer rack who puts out. I'd like to make some kind of pro-Gopher joke here, but I can't. Why wouldn't you pick the hot chick with the sweet ass? The only thing the dumpy girl has to offer is you know she won't upgrade to a better guy in a year. Which, by the way, is apt because that's kind of what I see happening to Tharpe.
I have a feeling he's a bit of his element here, and KU is just going to upgrade the position in one of their next classes, leaving him on the bench. They've already offered the #4, #5, #6, and #9 point guards for the class of 2012, so to torture this analogy a bit further, they've basically got four better looking, more successful dudes on speed dial. If people still used speed dial.
But that, of course, is really neither here nor there, and what we really need to concern ourselves with here is that there is suddenly only one recruit remaining who we really care about who could become a Gopher, Andre Hollins, and it suddenly looks like the point guard cupboard is bare (Hollins is a combo guard). With Al Nolen graduating after this year, and the only point guards on the roster being a shooting guard, a guy who might not be D-I material, and a football player, I'm beyond nervous.
Fact of the matter is they need to land a point guard, and they need to land a good one. Going into battle with a bunch of last minute hail mary type signees isn't going to get it done. This isn't Iowa.
Thursday, October 14, 2010
Tuesday, October 12, 2010
ACC College Basketball 2010 Preview
The ACC has been almost been a two team league lately, and it looks like it might stay that way. Sure, NC State and Virginia Tech are up this year, but Clemson, Georgia Tech, and especially Wake Forest are down. Even when UNC was bad last year, you knew it wouldn't last, and in Duke's darkest days they recovered. It seems every other school is on a constant up/down cycle. Either Duke or UNC has either won outright or tied for the ACC regular season championship the last seven years and 17 of the last 20. That's lame. Somebody do something.
1. Duke Blue Devils. I mean, you pretty much have to pick them first, right, no matter how much it burns when you say it? Scheyer is gone, but they are so loaded with everybody else coming in, and the rumor is that incoming frosh PG Kyrie Irving is the best player on the Duke roster - and Singler is still here. About the only real issues are with Brian Zoubek and Lance Thomas gone there are some questions about Duke's toughness inside since they're all a bunch of dandies down in Durham. I'll also be curious to see how many games Seth Curry shoots the Devils right out of.
2. North Carolina Tar Heels. I hate putting them second since they didn't even bother to make the NCAA Tournament last season, but the talent level is there - at least on paper. Harrison Barnes is going to be a great one, Kevin Durant II, maybe, and Henson and Zellar are supposed to be star types as well. The real question, as it was last year, is what of the PG spot? Larry Drew was a disappointment most of last season, and I've read some are questioning if incoming freshman Kendall Marshall is really ACC material (and of course, the next thing you read says he's the best PG in this class). Projected starting shooting guard Will Graves was also just dismissed for the ever ubiquitous "violation of team rules" so there's even more uncertainty in the backcourt. Combine those questions with the thin frontcourt and although they have the talent and I'm picking them at #2 they also have to potential to fall apart for a second consecutive season. I'm hoping for the second one.
3. North Carolina State Wolfpack. This is the team I'll be rooting for out of the ACC this year, and they pretty much deserve to have a nice season. Sid Lowe hasn't show himself to necessarily be much of a game coach, which we are all pretty familiar with here in Minnesota, but his recruiting efforts are paying off. The Wolfpack landed one of the best classes in the country (ESPN ranks it as the 7th best) with power forward C.J. Leslie and guards Lorenzo Brown and Ryan Harrow all ranking in the top 37 in the country according to Rivals. With their All-ACC second team PF Tracy Smith back along with big-time shooter Scott Wood, all the talent is there for NC State to be relevant for the first time since Fire & Ice. Yes, Fire & Ice. You know you remember them.
4. Florida State Seminoles. There are plenty of question marks, but FSU also has some seriously top flight talent coming back, and this team continues to be a defensive powerhouse year-after-year, which means they always have a chance. Helping out would be some offensive firepower, and they have two guys with a chance to really bring it: Chris Singleton, a junior forward who can do it all, and Michael Snaer, a sophomore guard and great athlete who needs to improve his shot. Also look for Xavier Gibson to try to fill in for Solomon Alabi. He might end up as the biggest key to FSU's season. Also, literally since he's 6-11, 240.
5. Virginia Tech Hokies. They were going to be my sleeper and I was going to pick them second in the ACC for this year, but injuries have hurt their depth and although I fear I may be dropping them too far, I also think their depth behind Malcolm Delaney was their biggest strength. And there's no doubt Delaney is an ACC Player-of-the-Year candidate and a possible All-American, but it will be up to that supporting cast to take VT as far as they are going to go. The best news for the Hokies, however, is that they finally put together a decent non-conference schedule, so the annual tradition of coach Seth Greenberg bitching that his team deserves an NCAA bid despite not having played anybody out of conference all year should mercifully come to an end.
6. Maryland Terrapins. The Terps lose a ton, with three career 1,000 point scorers on their way out in dirty stud Greivis Vasquez, backcourt mate Eric Hayes, and swingman Landon Milbourne, but Gary Williams still has some good talent and also sweats a lot. Jordan Williams proved himself to be one of the best rebounders in the conference last year and has a very good all-around game, and Sean Mosley is one of those solid, all-around guards who score when needed, are smart with the ball, and grab too many rebounds for their size; an excellent complementary piece, but they need a star to team with Williams. The recruiting class is deep, but not exceptional at the top, so expect Maryland to be a solid, yet unspectacular team this year. Sort of like set-up man extraordinaire Scott Shields.
7. Miami Hurricanes. It's not often a team loses it's highest scoring guard (James Dews) and highest scoring post player (Dwayne Collins) and gets better without an outstanding recruiting class, but that may be the case for the Hurricanes this year thanks to Durand Scott. Don't forget that although Miami finished last in the ACC at 4-12 (way to go, Gophers) they did have a nice little run going in the ACC tournament beating Wake, Virginia Tech in a game the Hokies needed desperately, and losing by just three to Duke, and the biggest reason for their success in two of those three games was the play of Scott. He's not much of a shooter (just 29% from three on just 58 attempts), but if he ever adds that piece to his game he could end up an all-league type of player, or get good enough to transfer like Denis Clemente did.
8. Virginia Cavaliers. Most of the positive affects of hiring Tony Bennett won't be felt until his recruiting classes have more time to gel, particularly with Sylvan Landesburg no longer being on the team, and last year was pretty meh but I have a hunch this year the Cavaliers are going to be tough and knock off a team or two they shouldn't (please not the Gophers please). A large and talented class of freshmen, led by guards K.T. Harrell (#30 recruit by Rivals) and Joe Harris (#119) and forwards James Johnson (#108) and Will Regan (#148), will join an established star, if second tier one, in forward Mike Scott and two other returning starters. That's a lot of talent in Charlottesville, more than we've seen in quite some time. They probably aren't ready to be truly dangerous yet, but they're going to be pesky. You watch. If they don't knock off more than one top 25 team this year I'll send everyone who remembers this prediction a token of my shame as an act of contrition.
9. Boston College Eagles. Most of the squad is back from last season, with just the transferring Rakim Sanders missing, but the problem is what's left just isn't all that exciting. Joe Trapani is already an excellent all-around player and should thrive in new coach Steve Donahue's offense, and there are a couple of other decent players but the team is thin, both in bodies and in talent. Donahue is already paying dividends on the recruiting trail (one site I saw has them with the #17 recruiting class in the country for next year) so things should turn around soon for B.C., just not this year.
10. Clemson Tigers. Nearly everybody is back from last year's NCAA team, but the one guy missing is going to be very difficult to replace in Trevor Booker, who was top 10 last year in the ACC in scoring, rebounding, and field goal percentage, even if they do have his little brother. Booker basically carried that team last season, and it may be up to the only other double-digit scorer from last year, point man Demontez Stitt, to carry them this year. He did score 21 in their NCAA Tournament loss to Missouri, but reached 20 points just two other times last year, and doesn't average many assists for a point guard (just 3.1 apg). Really there is a lot of blah talent here, and unless somebody takes a big leap forward the Tigers' streak of three straight NCAA Tourny bids will end at three.
11. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. The Jackets have a lineup of guards that could potentially be as good as any group in the country. Mfon Udofia, Iman Shumpert, Brian Oliver, and Glen Rice, Jr. was a nice group last year and will be outstanding this year. Unfortunately, there's nothing in the front court after Derrick Favors and Gani Lawal took off for the NBA and Zack Peacock graduated, so it's going to be awfully difficult to compete. The only non-freshman over 6'-6" is seven-footer Brad Sheehan whose scored less than a hundred points in his combined three years, and the freshman aren't exactly superstars, with one who redshirted last year because he wasn't ready and another coming off a torn ACL. It's going to be a rough year in Atlanta (although honestly when isn't it? Talk about murder-happy people, sheesh), but with the shooting and perimeter skills of the guards they might shock a team here and there.
12. Wake Forest Demon Deacons. At least the Jackets have their guards, the Demon Deacons can't even say they have that with the losses of Al-Farouq Aminu, Ishmael Smith, Chas McFarland, and LD Williams, leaving them with just C.J. Harris (9.9 ppg) as their only returning scorer. There is a good recruiting class coming in to Winston-Salem with four players in Rivals top 100 arriving on campus this year so the future looks bright, but this is going to be a pretty awful team this season. I mean, like, Dan Monson's Gophers terrible. Yes, for real.
Other Previews:
The Big 12
1. Duke Blue Devils. I mean, you pretty much have to pick them first, right, no matter how much it burns when you say it? Scheyer is gone, but they are so loaded with everybody else coming in, and the rumor is that incoming frosh PG Kyrie Irving is the best player on the Duke roster - and Singler is still here. About the only real issues are with Brian Zoubek and Lance Thomas gone there are some questions about Duke's toughness inside since they're all a bunch of dandies down in Durham. I'll also be curious to see how many games Seth Curry shoots the Devils right out of.
2. North Carolina Tar Heels. I hate putting them second since they didn't even bother to make the NCAA Tournament last season, but the talent level is there - at least on paper. Harrison Barnes is going to be a great one, Kevin Durant II, maybe, and Henson and Zellar are supposed to be star types as well. The real question, as it was last year, is what of the PG spot? Larry Drew was a disappointment most of last season, and I've read some are questioning if incoming freshman Kendall Marshall is really ACC material (and of course, the next thing you read says he's the best PG in this class). Projected starting shooting guard Will Graves was also just dismissed for the ever ubiquitous "violation of team rules" so there's even more uncertainty in the backcourt. Combine those questions with the thin frontcourt and although they have the talent and I'm picking them at #2 they also have to potential to fall apart for a second consecutive season. I'm hoping for the second one.
3. North Carolina State Wolfpack. This is the team I'll be rooting for out of the ACC this year, and they pretty much deserve to have a nice season. Sid Lowe hasn't show himself to necessarily be much of a game coach, which we are all pretty familiar with here in Minnesota, but his recruiting efforts are paying off. The Wolfpack landed one of the best classes in the country (ESPN ranks it as the 7th best) with power forward C.J. Leslie and guards Lorenzo Brown and Ryan Harrow all ranking in the top 37 in the country according to Rivals. With their All-ACC second team PF Tracy Smith back along with big-time shooter Scott Wood, all the talent is there for NC State to be relevant for the first time since Fire & Ice. Yes, Fire & Ice. You know you remember them.
4. Florida State Seminoles. There are plenty of question marks, but FSU also has some seriously top flight talent coming back, and this team continues to be a defensive powerhouse year-after-year, which means they always have a chance. Helping out would be some offensive firepower, and they have two guys with a chance to really bring it: Chris Singleton, a junior forward who can do it all, and Michael Snaer, a sophomore guard and great athlete who needs to improve his shot. Also look for Xavier Gibson to try to fill in for Solomon Alabi. He might end up as the biggest key to FSU's season. Also, literally since he's 6-11, 240.
5. Virginia Tech Hokies. They were going to be my sleeper and I was going to pick them second in the ACC for this year, but injuries have hurt their depth and although I fear I may be dropping them too far, I also think their depth behind Malcolm Delaney was their biggest strength. And there's no doubt Delaney is an ACC Player-of-the-Year candidate and a possible All-American, but it will be up to that supporting cast to take VT as far as they are going to go. The best news for the Hokies, however, is that they finally put together a decent non-conference schedule, so the annual tradition of coach Seth Greenberg bitching that his team deserves an NCAA bid despite not having played anybody out of conference all year should mercifully come to an end.
6. Maryland Terrapins. The Terps lose a ton, with three career 1,000 point scorers on their way out in dirty stud Greivis Vasquez, backcourt mate Eric Hayes, and swingman Landon Milbourne, but Gary Williams still has some good talent and also sweats a lot. Jordan Williams proved himself to be one of the best rebounders in the conference last year and has a very good all-around game, and Sean Mosley is one of those solid, all-around guards who score when needed, are smart with the ball, and grab too many rebounds for their size; an excellent complementary piece, but they need a star to team with Williams. The recruiting class is deep, but not exceptional at the top, so expect Maryland to be a solid, yet unspectacular team this year. Sort of like set-up man extraordinaire Scott Shields.
7. Miami Hurricanes. It's not often a team loses it's highest scoring guard (James Dews) and highest scoring post player (Dwayne Collins) and gets better without an outstanding recruiting class, but that may be the case for the Hurricanes this year thanks to Durand Scott. Don't forget that although Miami finished last in the ACC at 4-12 (way to go, Gophers) they did have a nice little run going in the ACC tournament beating Wake, Virginia Tech in a game the Hokies needed desperately, and losing by just three to Duke, and the biggest reason for their success in two of those three games was the play of Scott. He's not much of a shooter (just 29% from three on just 58 attempts), but if he ever adds that piece to his game he could end up an all-league type of player, or get good enough to transfer like Denis Clemente did.
8. Virginia Cavaliers. Most of the positive affects of hiring Tony Bennett won't be felt until his recruiting classes have more time to gel, particularly with Sylvan Landesburg no longer being on the team, and last year was pretty meh but I have a hunch this year the Cavaliers are going to be tough and knock off a team or two they shouldn't (please not the Gophers please). A large and talented class of freshmen, led by guards K.T. Harrell (#30 recruit by Rivals) and Joe Harris (#119) and forwards James Johnson (#108) and Will Regan (#148), will join an established star, if second tier one, in forward Mike Scott and two other returning starters. That's a lot of talent in Charlottesville, more than we've seen in quite some time. They probably aren't ready to be truly dangerous yet, but they're going to be pesky. You watch. If they don't knock off more than one top 25 team this year I'll send everyone who remembers this prediction a token of my shame as an act of contrition.
9. Boston College Eagles. Most of the squad is back from last season, with just the transferring Rakim Sanders missing, but the problem is what's left just isn't all that exciting. Joe Trapani is already an excellent all-around player and should thrive in new coach Steve Donahue's offense, and there are a couple of other decent players but the team is thin, both in bodies and in talent. Donahue is already paying dividends on the recruiting trail (one site I saw has them with the #17 recruiting class in the country for next year) so things should turn around soon for B.C., just not this year.
10. Clemson Tigers. Nearly everybody is back from last year's NCAA team, but the one guy missing is going to be very difficult to replace in Trevor Booker, who was top 10 last year in the ACC in scoring, rebounding, and field goal percentage, even if they do have his little brother. Booker basically carried that team last season, and it may be up to the only other double-digit scorer from last year, point man Demontez Stitt, to carry them this year. He did score 21 in their NCAA Tournament loss to Missouri, but reached 20 points just two other times last year, and doesn't average many assists for a point guard (just 3.1 apg). Really there is a lot of blah talent here, and unless somebody takes a big leap forward the Tigers' streak of three straight NCAA Tourny bids will end at three.
11. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. The Jackets have a lineup of guards that could potentially be as good as any group in the country. Mfon Udofia, Iman Shumpert, Brian Oliver, and Glen Rice, Jr. was a nice group last year and will be outstanding this year. Unfortunately, there's nothing in the front court after Derrick Favors and Gani Lawal took off for the NBA and Zack Peacock graduated, so it's going to be awfully difficult to compete. The only non-freshman over 6'-6" is seven-footer Brad Sheehan whose scored less than a hundred points in his combined three years, and the freshman aren't exactly superstars, with one who redshirted last year because he wasn't ready and another coming off a torn ACL. It's going to be a rough year in Atlanta (although honestly when isn't it? Talk about murder-happy people, sheesh), but with the shooting and perimeter skills of the guards they might shock a team here and there.
12. Wake Forest Demon Deacons. At least the Jackets have their guards, the Demon Deacons can't even say they have that with the losses of Al-Farouq Aminu, Ishmael Smith, Chas McFarland, and LD Williams, leaving them with just C.J. Harris (9.9 ppg) as their only returning scorer. There is a good recruiting class coming in to Winston-Salem with four players in Rivals top 100 arriving on campus this year so the future looks bright, but this is going to be a pretty awful team this season. I mean, like, Dan Monson's Gophers terrible. Yes, for real.
Other Previews:
The Big 12
Monday, October 11, 2010
Twins Season Wrap: 10 Roster Questions for Next Year
With the season officially in the crapper and my heart broken clean in two, I thought I'd look at some of the pressing offseason roster questions that Bill Smith and the Twins' front office are going to have to deal with, and then never speak of the Twisn again. There are a lot of things that are going to change, which makes this year's defeat all the more soul crushing - the team was setup to win this year, and they failed. Failed hard.
1. Will Morneau be back? Hard to believe a simple knee to the head could end someone's career, but the fact that he missed the last three months of the season and still can't string together more than a few days without a relapse/dizzy spell who the hell knows what could happen. I won't bother to just wildly speculate since I don't have any knowledge of it or any kind of medical background except what I learned on Scrubs, but as unfathomable as it seems that he might not be around next year, did you think there was even a slight chance he'd miss the rest of the season?
2. How high will the payroll go? Right now the Twins have seven players under contract for next year, but those seven (Mauer, Morneau, Nathan, Cuddyer, Baker, Span, and Blackburn) total $68 million in payroll. Most other current Twins are arbitration eligible and most will get raises, so the Twins will have to make some hard decisions about who to keep and who to let go. And wherever they let players go, I'd guess they try to plug those holes from within. Will that mean Alexi Casilla as a full-time starter and Anthony Swarzak in the rotation? I hope not, but it wouldn't surprise me.
3. Jason Kubel's option? Kubel had an off year this season, at least compared to the prior year, and has a team option remaining that the Twins can pick up which would pay him $5.25 million (or they can buy him out for $350k). I hate having two defensive butchers at the corner outfield positions with him and Delmon, and Kubel is certainly more suited to a DH role, so his true value depends on whether Thome comes back. Which, brings us to....
4. Will Thome return on the cheap? Jim Thome was only signed this year because he was willing to take a very cheap $1.5 million to come play part time. With Morneau's injury and subsequent position shifting of everyone, his value skyrocketed and he more than proved himself worth every penny. If Morneau comes back, Thome goes back to his part-time role. Would he be willing to do it again, or at this point does he want to be full-time player again?
5. What's going to happen with Delmon Young? Delmon is arbitration eligible and made $2.6 million last year, but coming off the year he had, including surpassing magic numbers of 20 HRs and 100 RBI, he's going to get a healthy raise if they go to arbitration. If his agent is worth his shit, however, they'll be pushing for a long-term contract, and the question is if the Twins will go for it. Nick Markakis of the Orioles had a similar year in 2008 and ended up signing a 6-year, $66 million deal. Are you ready to pay Delmon $11 per year?
6. How is the bullpen going to shake out? Joe Nathan is the only bullpen guy with a guaranteed contract for next season, so this is where a lot of choices are going to have to be made. Fuentes is a free agent and will be gone, but everybody else is a question mark. Matt Guerrier, Jessie Crain, and Jon Rauch are all free agents and Matt Capps is arbitration eligible and will get a significant raise from the $3.5 million he made this year if he's offered. With the payroll already where it is, they probably won't be bringing everybody back, and I'd be pretty shocked if Rauch is a Twin next season.
7. How will the middle infield look next year? Orlando Hudson is a free agent, and I'd be pretty shocked if they brought him back, while J.J. Hardy, Alexi Casilla, and Matt Tolbert are all arbitration eligible. Hardy made $5.1 million this year, and even if he doesn't get a raise that is still a pretty high number for medium production, but the alternatives make me want to kill myself. Unless they decide to try to pay for Juan Uribe, a free agent from the Giants next year, Hardy is pretty much the only viable option. And if they start next year with Punto as their starting SS, we might as well just give the season up for dead. Speaking of......
8. They can't possibly pick up Nick Punto's option, right? The choices are to either agree to pay him $5 million next year (Five. Freaking. Million) or buy him out for $500k. Putting aside how terrible that contract was, I know they are in love with him over at Target Field but even they have to realize that $5MM is a ridiculous number for a good fielding utility man, right? Their best bet would be to buy him out, then offer him a contract for a year in the $500k - $1 million range to be their back up, although they should probably just pay him the minimum since he's essentially stolen over $13 million from the Twins the last few years.
9. Will the 'stache be back? This might be the toughest decision to make, since Carl Pavano was brilliant all year and carried the team at times. Of course, pitchers who are brilliant and carry their team generally make a lot of money. He made $7 million this year, and, unless the Twins move quickly, will hit the open market, and who knows who is going to offer him what and for how long. One advantage is that there is no way the Yankees will be after him since he burned them once before, but there are plenty of other teams who have money and need pitching. Whatever the cost, I would be nervous giving Pavano anything more than a 2-year deal, but if you want to keep him you might have to, and don't be shocked if he makes $10+ million per year with a new deal.
10. Pavano or no, what about the rest of the rotation? Baker is pretty much stuck since he's got a contract ($5 million next year) as is Blackburn ($3 million), Brian Duensing is still under team control, so he'll be here, and Francisco Liriano will be back as well, whether it's through arbitration or if they decide to sign him longer term. Slowey is also still under arbitration, so I'd expect him to be back as well. None of the in-house options are very attractive at this point, unless Kyle Gibson has just an amazing spring, so I'd expect the rotation to look pretty similar to start the year, with those five above the guys they go with if they don't end up signing Pavano. There will probably be a few other scraps on the open market, because they'll have no shot at Cliff Lee, but I wouldn't expect the Twins to go after anybody unless they think they can get a steal on a veteran they think is undervalued (like Pavano was). I wouldn't be shocked to see Javier Vazquez as a Twin next year, although if I was to bet on it I'd guess next year's rotation would be Liriano, Duensing, Baker, Slowey, and Blackbun. Doesn't that just get you fired up?
Well, there you have it. It will be interesting to see what they end up doing in a variety of areas, and to see the results. Worst case, the team takes a nosedive and sucks. Best case, another division title and they get swept out of the first round of the playoffs. Either way, it guarantees a season ending in frustration. Thank god college hoops isn't too far away, because Gopher basketball is never frustrating.
Catchers and pitchers report in 19 weeks.
1. Will Morneau be back? Hard to believe a simple knee to the head could end someone's career, but the fact that he missed the last three months of the season and still can't string together more than a few days without a relapse/dizzy spell who the hell knows what could happen. I won't bother to just wildly speculate since I don't have any knowledge of it or any kind of medical background except what I learned on Scrubs, but as unfathomable as it seems that he might not be around next year, did you think there was even a slight chance he'd miss the rest of the season?
2. How high will the payroll go? Right now the Twins have seven players under contract for next year, but those seven (Mauer, Morneau, Nathan, Cuddyer, Baker, Span, and Blackburn) total $68 million in payroll. Most other current Twins are arbitration eligible and most will get raises, so the Twins will have to make some hard decisions about who to keep and who to let go. And wherever they let players go, I'd guess they try to plug those holes from within. Will that mean Alexi Casilla as a full-time starter and Anthony Swarzak in the rotation? I hope not, but it wouldn't surprise me.
3. Jason Kubel's option? Kubel had an off year this season, at least compared to the prior year, and has a team option remaining that the Twins can pick up which would pay him $5.25 million (or they can buy him out for $350k). I hate having two defensive butchers at the corner outfield positions with him and Delmon, and Kubel is certainly more suited to a DH role, so his true value depends on whether Thome comes back. Which, brings us to....
4. Will Thome return on the cheap? Jim Thome was only signed this year because he was willing to take a very cheap $1.5 million to come play part time. With Morneau's injury and subsequent position shifting of everyone, his value skyrocketed and he more than proved himself worth every penny. If Morneau comes back, Thome goes back to his part-time role. Would he be willing to do it again, or at this point does he want to be full-time player again?
5. What's going to happen with Delmon Young? Delmon is arbitration eligible and made $2.6 million last year, but coming off the year he had, including surpassing magic numbers of 20 HRs and 100 RBI, he's going to get a healthy raise if they go to arbitration. If his agent is worth his shit, however, they'll be pushing for a long-term contract, and the question is if the Twins will go for it. Nick Markakis of the Orioles had a similar year in 2008 and ended up signing a 6-year, $66 million deal. Are you ready to pay Delmon $11 per year?
6. How is the bullpen going to shake out? Joe Nathan is the only bullpen guy with a guaranteed contract for next season, so this is where a lot of choices are going to have to be made. Fuentes is a free agent and will be gone, but everybody else is a question mark. Matt Guerrier, Jessie Crain, and Jon Rauch are all free agents and Matt Capps is arbitration eligible and will get a significant raise from the $3.5 million he made this year if he's offered. With the payroll already where it is, they probably won't be bringing everybody back, and I'd be pretty shocked if Rauch is a Twin next season.
7. How will the middle infield look next year? Orlando Hudson is a free agent, and I'd be pretty shocked if they brought him back, while J.J. Hardy, Alexi Casilla, and Matt Tolbert are all arbitration eligible. Hardy made $5.1 million this year, and even if he doesn't get a raise that is still a pretty high number for medium production, but the alternatives make me want to kill myself. Unless they decide to try to pay for Juan Uribe, a free agent from the Giants next year, Hardy is pretty much the only viable option. And if they start next year with Punto as their starting SS, we might as well just give the season up for dead. Speaking of......
8. They can't possibly pick up Nick Punto's option, right? The choices are to either agree to pay him $5 million next year (Five. Freaking. Million) or buy him out for $500k. Putting aside how terrible that contract was, I know they are in love with him over at Target Field but even they have to realize that $5MM is a ridiculous number for a good fielding utility man, right? Their best bet would be to buy him out, then offer him a contract for a year in the $500k - $1 million range to be their back up, although they should probably just pay him the minimum since he's essentially stolen over $13 million from the Twins the last few years.
9. Will the 'stache be back? This might be the toughest decision to make, since Carl Pavano was brilliant all year and carried the team at times. Of course, pitchers who are brilliant and carry their team generally make a lot of money. He made $7 million this year, and, unless the Twins move quickly, will hit the open market, and who knows who is going to offer him what and for how long. One advantage is that there is no way the Yankees will be after him since he burned them once before, but there are plenty of other teams who have money and need pitching. Whatever the cost, I would be nervous giving Pavano anything more than a 2-year deal, but if you want to keep him you might have to, and don't be shocked if he makes $10+ million per year with a new deal.
10. Pavano or no, what about the rest of the rotation? Baker is pretty much stuck since he's got a contract ($5 million next year) as is Blackburn ($3 million), Brian Duensing is still under team control, so he'll be here, and Francisco Liriano will be back as well, whether it's through arbitration or if they decide to sign him longer term. Slowey is also still under arbitration, so I'd expect him to be back as well. None of the in-house options are very attractive at this point, unless Kyle Gibson has just an amazing spring, so I'd expect the rotation to look pretty similar to start the year, with those five above the guys they go with if they don't end up signing Pavano. There will probably be a few other scraps on the open market, because they'll have no shot at Cliff Lee, but I wouldn't expect the Twins to go after anybody unless they think they can get a steal on a veteran they think is undervalued (like Pavano was). I wouldn't be shocked to see Javier Vazquez as a Twin next year, although if I was to bet on it I'd guess next year's rotation would be Liriano, Duensing, Baker, Slowey, and Blackbun. Doesn't that just get you fired up?
Well, there you have it. It will be interesting to see what they end up doing in a variety of areas, and to see the results. Worst case, the team takes a nosedive and sucks. Best case, another division title and they get swept out of the first round of the playoffs. Either way, it guarantees a season ending in frustration. Thank god college hoops isn't too far away, because Gopher basketball is never frustrating.
Catchers and pitchers report in 19 weeks.
Thursday, October 7, 2010
Wednesday, October 6, 2010
Game 1 - Yankees/Twins running Diary
I just finally got the baby to sleep (for how long who knows, stay tuned) but I'm just now able to put some thoughts down on virtual paper here for your game 1 Yankees v. Twins matchup. We're in the bottom of the second, and here is what I have to say so far:
- I really hate sac bunting in the first, especially with the second batter of the game. If the pitcher just doesn't have it early, you're giving him a free out. Plus, there's that whole thing about how sac bunts don't really help you very often, which has been statistically proven.
- Liriano pees his pants when Marcus Thames is up.
- Sabathia intentionally throwing at Thome because of that one time when they played together in Cleveland and Thome didn't invite him to a BBQ party at his house.
- If Cuddy was saving it for the playoffs this year, I'm ok with that. Although he owes us about 10 more based on his play all season.
- So that's where we stand. 2-0 Twins, Liriano looking mostly good. Sabathia just struck out Valencia who did an awfully good impression of someone who has never seen a slider before. CC looks good, I have a hunch he's on tonight, but after intentionally beaning Thome because he slept with his wife he made his one mistake to Cuddy and luckily he was able to take advantage, so Liriano needs to keep this up and keep the Twins ahead because I don't think they're going to get much more.
- Tonight's drink of choice: Three Philosophers beer. To be followed by Coors Light.
- Double for Hardy, which proves that all of you who questioned me when I said the Twins had the advantage at shortstop can now suck it.
- Slower Vince Coleman swings like a girl - again. Inning over.
- So I had the most fantastically interesting dinner last night. We went to Vincent with work, the kind of thing I desperately miss with my new job, since if you pay way to much attention here you know I used to get fancy dinners all the time (along with a lot of fun travel) that I don't anymore, so I was really looking forward to it, and I ended up trying several things I'd never had.
We opened with appetizers both comforting (baked camembert) and exotic (escargot), and I did end up trying the snails, which was my first time ever. They basically drenched them in a garlic butter sauce (to mask the taste) and serve them boiling hot (to mask the texture) which leads to me to ask why exactly people eat them at all, but I tried them and other than being hot they were fine. Of course, I mostly tasted garlic butter, which I think was the point. Back to the game, more about the meal later.
- Leadoff walk to Gardner. This, frankly, sucks, and Liriano is doing that thing where he looks scard to throw a strike, nibbles nibbles nibbles, and walks a bunch of guys. At least Jeter's up, this is a double play waiting to happen.
- OMG throw a strike asshole.
- Base hit Jeter. First and second nobody out and I want to cry. That's the second 0-2 count he's had where he's allowed the runner to reach base. I can't help but feel like we've got the bad Liriano tonight.
- Two fly outs and a K of A-Rod that left him looking absolutely silly. So maybe we have the good Liriano, although I'm starting to suspect they are one in the same.
- TNT just let us know Sabathia and Orlando Hudson are good friends dating back to 1999 when they were teammates in the Sally League. I wonder what color skirts they wore and who baited the hook when the went fishing. Base knock, Hudson.
- Mauer grounds out with Hudson running and slides into first like an idiot (but is out), but noone of that matters because O-Hud ends up taking third like Jake Taylor on a bunt. Brilliant play. I guess Hudson skirt is the color of rocket fuel and veteran savvy. And he just scored on a wild pitch, 3-0 Twins. I'm starting to feel good and I hate it.
- Ron Darling, one of our announcers tonight, "Along with throwing, giving up passed balls has been a big weakness of Posada this year." So what, exactly, is left? I know. I bet he always invites Sabathia to the BBQs at his house.
- Favorite text so far tonight, courtesy of Snacks, "I will commit murder at a twins game someday due to bathroom etiquette rules."
- Liriano gets Thames out. Everything is coming up Millhouse.
- Great inning for Liriano, which brings me back to my great meal. The next course I had was a poached eggs with a salted cod puree, bell peppers, and little slices of some kind of sausage. I'm not usually an egg fan, at all, but the other option for this course was a pureed soup of root vegetables, and I do not like pureed soups, so I went with this. The accompaniments were good enough to offset my usual distaste for egg, and I thought it was quite good, although not very exciting. More coming up.
- Here's an idea - the Twins sign Carl Crawford for next year, trade Kubel or Delmon for a pitcher, and outright cut Cuddyer. Who's in?
- Next course I was really tempted to go with the white fish, because there's nothing more I like than a really well cooked piece of fish (other than maybe properly cooked, rock-salted prime rib with a well seasoned au jus) but I just couldn't bring myself to pass on the wild boar because, really, when am I going to have wild boar again? It was pretty good, stringy to be sure and the closest taste I can come up with to it would be beef jerky (which is not remotely an insult) but overall quite good and I'm glad I had it. Also came with brussel sprouts which I had also never tasted, and these were pretty outstanding. I don't know if they were just good plain or if it was the squash puree mixed with them, but I was impressed.
- 1-2-3 for Liriano including a couple of strikeouts and he's back to looking sharp. I'm really glad I didn't jump in my car, drive to Target Field, hop the fence, run on to the field and tackle and/or choke Liriano whilst yelling "They can't hit you asshole!" Not that I was contemplating it. Barely even warmed up the car.
- Oh, and FYI - I'm chatting with a Yankee fan as I watch, and if he's any representation of that team they are really, really down on this year's squad and don't feel remotely confident. As in, win this first game and the fans, if not the team, will curl up and die faster than a snail in a boiling vat of garlic butter. My biggest concern is who pitches the 8th. That inning is going to make or break this game.
- Easy inning for Sabathia, and through five these are a couple of good pitching performances, although nothing compared to Halladay's no-hitter earlier today. Which, incidentally, is what the announcers for this game just talked about for that entire half-inning. So, to recap, three idiots who get paid handsomely to do a job I could do much better, just spent an entire inning talking about a game that was already over. Brilliant. And I know everybody thinks they could be a better announcer than the actual announcers, and most of you are wrong, but I actually could be better. I'd be the next Jack Buck (NOT Joe) crossed with a little Vin Scully and a dash of Keith Olbermann back when he was good combined with Brad Pitt's looks and Brad Pitt's body.
- Texeira double here in the top 6 with one out. It's still 3-0, and now I'm terrified Liriano is going to walk A-Rod because he's scared to set up the 3-run, game tying HR. Seriously, if that happens this is a sweep. No way the Twins could survive having the momentum yanked out from under them like that.
- Indeed, he walks A-Rod (although I'm pretty certain that ball four was a strike). Game all set to be tied here. Full expecting my heart to be ripped out.
- Base hit by Cano, 3-1. I don't think I can do this. Might have to just change the channel for a while.
- Strikes out Thames, which has to be huge pyschologically since that guy hits everything Liriano throws, and hits it a ton. Now it's Posada, and Franky is at 97 pitches so you know Gardy's hair trigger is getting itchy.
- Old man time with a base hit to score one, now 3-2 Twins, runners on first and second for Granderson, who should probably strike out on 3 pitches. Christ, guy has no clue where the strike zone is anyway.
- Granderson off the wall. Yanks lead 4-3. I'm done. Fuck this.
- Oh my sweet christ Sabathia walked in the tying run after walking Valencia on four straight pitches. How can that possibly happen? And with two outs after having struck Valencia out twice already. Just throw it down the middle and odds are he pees his pants.
- Tied heading to the seventh, just waiting to see if it's Guerrier or Crain who loses the game. In the meantime, I'll tell you about my dessert. I went with the Nutella crepe with vanilla ice cream and I have to tell you this might have been the best thing I've ever eaten. I had never had Nutella, but I know it's popular in certain places, and it was certainly popular with my mouth last night. The warm chocolatey crepe combined with the cold vanilla ice cream was perfect, and I'm not a dessert guy at all. No chance I would have ordered it on my own if it wasn't part of our Prix Fixe menu. And I'm damn glad it was. Outstanding.
- Crain on. Hopefully he'll be the Nutella Crepe in my garbage can of my life.
- Now I'm done for real.
- I really hate sac bunting in the first, especially with the second batter of the game. If the pitcher just doesn't have it early, you're giving him a free out. Plus, there's that whole thing about how sac bunts don't really help you very often, which has been statistically proven.
- Liriano pees his pants when Marcus Thames is up.
- Sabathia intentionally throwing at Thome because of that one time when they played together in Cleveland and Thome didn't invite him to a BBQ party at his house.
- If Cuddy was saving it for the playoffs this year, I'm ok with that. Although he owes us about 10 more based on his play all season.
- So that's where we stand. 2-0 Twins, Liriano looking mostly good. Sabathia just struck out Valencia who did an awfully good impression of someone who has never seen a slider before. CC looks good, I have a hunch he's on tonight, but after intentionally beaning Thome because he slept with his wife he made his one mistake to Cuddy and luckily he was able to take advantage, so Liriano needs to keep this up and keep the Twins ahead because I don't think they're going to get much more.
- Tonight's drink of choice: Three Philosophers beer. To be followed by Coors Light.
- Double for Hardy, which proves that all of you who questioned me when I said the Twins had the advantage at shortstop can now suck it.
- Slower Vince Coleman swings like a girl - again. Inning over.
- So I had the most fantastically interesting dinner last night. We went to Vincent with work, the kind of thing I desperately miss with my new job, since if you pay way to much attention here you know I used to get fancy dinners all the time (along with a lot of fun travel) that I don't anymore, so I was really looking forward to it, and I ended up trying several things I'd never had.
We opened with appetizers both comforting (baked camembert) and exotic (escargot), and I did end up trying the snails, which was my first time ever. They basically drenched them in a garlic butter sauce (to mask the taste) and serve them boiling hot (to mask the texture) which leads to me to ask why exactly people eat them at all, but I tried them and other than being hot they were fine. Of course, I mostly tasted garlic butter, which I think was the point. Back to the game, more about the meal later.
- Leadoff walk to Gardner. This, frankly, sucks, and Liriano is doing that thing where he looks scard to throw a strike, nibbles nibbles nibbles, and walks a bunch of guys. At least Jeter's up, this is a double play waiting to happen.
- OMG throw a strike asshole.
- Base hit Jeter. First and second nobody out and I want to cry. That's the second 0-2 count he's had where he's allowed the runner to reach base. I can't help but feel like we've got the bad Liriano tonight.
- Two fly outs and a K of A-Rod that left him looking absolutely silly. So maybe we have the good Liriano, although I'm starting to suspect they are one in the same.
- TNT just let us know Sabathia and Orlando Hudson are good friends dating back to 1999 when they were teammates in the Sally League. I wonder what color skirts they wore and who baited the hook when the went fishing. Base knock, Hudson.
- Mauer grounds out with Hudson running and slides into first like an idiot (but is out), but noone of that matters because O-Hud ends up taking third like Jake Taylor on a bunt. Brilliant play. I guess Hudson skirt is the color of rocket fuel and veteran savvy. And he just scored on a wild pitch, 3-0 Twins. I'm starting to feel good and I hate it.
- Ron Darling, one of our announcers tonight, "Along with throwing, giving up passed balls has been a big weakness of Posada this year." So what, exactly, is left? I know. I bet he always invites Sabathia to the BBQs at his house.
- Favorite text so far tonight, courtesy of Snacks, "I will commit murder at a twins game someday due to bathroom etiquette rules."
- Liriano gets Thames out. Everything is coming up Millhouse.
- Great inning for Liriano, which brings me back to my great meal. The next course I had was a poached eggs with a salted cod puree, bell peppers, and little slices of some kind of sausage. I'm not usually an egg fan, at all, but the other option for this course was a pureed soup of root vegetables, and I do not like pureed soups, so I went with this. The accompaniments were good enough to offset my usual distaste for egg, and I thought it was quite good, although not very exciting. More coming up.
- Here's an idea - the Twins sign Carl Crawford for next year, trade Kubel or Delmon for a pitcher, and outright cut Cuddyer. Who's in?
- Next course I was really tempted to go with the white fish, because there's nothing more I like than a really well cooked piece of fish (other than maybe properly cooked, rock-salted prime rib with a well seasoned au jus) but I just couldn't bring myself to pass on the wild boar because, really, when am I going to have wild boar again? It was pretty good, stringy to be sure and the closest taste I can come up with to it would be beef jerky (which is not remotely an insult) but overall quite good and I'm glad I had it. Also came with brussel sprouts which I had also never tasted, and these were pretty outstanding. I don't know if they were just good plain or if it was the squash puree mixed with them, but I was impressed.
- 1-2-3 for Liriano including a couple of strikeouts and he's back to looking sharp. I'm really glad I didn't jump in my car, drive to Target Field, hop the fence, run on to the field and tackle and/or choke Liriano whilst yelling "They can't hit you asshole!" Not that I was contemplating it. Barely even warmed up the car.
- Oh, and FYI - I'm chatting with a Yankee fan as I watch, and if he's any representation of that team they are really, really down on this year's squad and don't feel remotely confident. As in, win this first game and the fans, if not the team, will curl up and die faster than a snail in a boiling vat of garlic butter. My biggest concern is who pitches the 8th. That inning is going to make or break this game.
- Easy inning for Sabathia, and through five these are a couple of good pitching performances, although nothing compared to Halladay's no-hitter earlier today. Which, incidentally, is what the announcers for this game just talked about for that entire half-inning. So, to recap, three idiots who get paid handsomely to do a job I could do much better, just spent an entire inning talking about a game that was already over. Brilliant. And I know everybody thinks they could be a better announcer than the actual announcers, and most of you are wrong, but I actually could be better. I'd be the next Jack Buck (NOT Joe) crossed with a little Vin Scully and a dash of Keith Olbermann back when he was good combined with Brad Pitt's looks and Brad Pitt's body.
- Texeira double here in the top 6 with one out. It's still 3-0, and now I'm terrified Liriano is going to walk A-Rod because he's scared to set up the 3-run, game tying HR. Seriously, if that happens this is a sweep. No way the Twins could survive having the momentum yanked out from under them like that.
- Indeed, he walks A-Rod (although I'm pretty certain that ball four was a strike). Game all set to be tied here. Full expecting my heart to be ripped out.
- Base hit by Cano, 3-1. I don't think I can do this. Might have to just change the channel for a while.
- Strikes out Thames, which has to be huge pyschologically since that guy hits everything Liriano throws, and hits it a ton. Now it's Posada, and Franky is at 97 pitches so you know Gardy's hair trigger is getting itchy.
- Old man time with a base hit to score one, now 3-2 Twins, runners on first and second for Granderson, who should probably strike out on 3 pitches. Christ, guy has no clue where the strike zone is anyway.
- Granderson off the wall. Yanks lead 4-3. I'm done. Fuck this.
- Oh my sweet christ Sabathia walked in the tying run after walking Valencia on four straight pitches. How can that possibly happen? And with two outs after having struck Valencia out twice already. Just throw it down the middle and odds are he pees his pants.
- Tied heading to the seventh, just waiting to see if it's Guerrier or Crain who loses the game. In the meantime, I'll tell you about my dessert. I went with the Nutella crepe with vanilla ice cream and I have to tell you this might have been the best thing I've ever eaten. I had never had Nutella, but I know it's popular in certain places, and it was certainly popular with my mouth last night. The warm chocolatey crepe combined with the cold vanilla ice cream was perfect, and I'm not a dessert guy at all. No chance I would have ordered it on my own if it wasn't part of our Prix Fixe menu. And I'm damn glad it was. Outstanding.
- Crain on. Hopefully he'll be the Nutella Crepe in my garbage can of my life.
- Now I'm done for real.
Monday, October 4, 2010
Win Twins: American League Division Series Preview
Even though we all know the New York Yankees are going to sweep since they completely own the Minnesota Twins in every way, Kubel homer off Rivera aside, I feel like I should toss up some kind of preview of some kind since I like to pretend I'm a Twins writer. So how about we take a look, position by position, so we can truly get a read on how badly teh Yanks are going to own this sucker.
CATCHER: Joe Mauer (.327/.402/.469 - 9 HRs) vs. Jorge Posada (.248/.357/.454). Mauer is going to win this battle against any playoff catcher this year, although there's somebody in San Fran who might make a pretty good argument, but his hitting - even with his power disappearing - combined with his defense make him easily the winner in this argument. Posada is still an ageless wonder but his skills are starting to diminish, even though - and you're going to hear this a lot with NYY - he's still patient and draws a lot of walks and can still hit for power. His arm is basically shot (he only threw out 16% of base-stealers this year) but that won't really matter since the Twins can't/don't really run. ADVANTAGE: Twins
FIRST BASE: Michael Cuddyer (.271/.336/.417 - 14 HRs) vs. Mark Texeira (.256/.365/.481 - 33 HRs). This year was an off year for Tex (worst avg, obp, and slugging since he was a rook), but he still blows what the Twins have to offer completely out of the water. The bad Cuddy showed up this year, which is unfortunate because this is when they could use him most, what with their best player on the shelf the second half of the year. Hopefully he can recapture some of that 2006/2009 magic, because the Twins are going to need all the big bats they can get. Plus, Texeira is a 3-time gold glover, and although it's commendable that Cuddy is willing to play wherever they need him he's a god awful 1B-man. ADVANTAGE: Yankees
SECOND BASE: Orlando Hudson (.268/.338/.372 - 10 SBs) vs. Robinson Cano (.319/.381/.534 - 29 HRs). Look at those numbers. Cano is just ridiculous. Do you realize that slugging percentage of Cano's is the second-highest of any player in this series, behind on Jim Thome? And we know what Thome has done, but Cano isn't that far behind. And he plays frickin' second base! I don't mind Hudson, despite the fact that he's hit .171 since September 8th, but he's far, far, far outclassed here. Cano is basically Joe Mauer with power, while O-Hud is, well, Alexi Casilla with a a better reputation. ADVANTAGE: Yankees
THIRD BASE: Danny Valencia (.311/.351/.448 - 7 HRs) vs. Alex Rodriguez (.270/.341/.506 - 30 HRs). Similar to Texeira, A-Rod had one of the worst years of his entire career but still blows the Twins' offering away. Not as badly as Tex, thanks to Valencia's high average, good defense, and the fact that he seems to be getting better, but Rodiguez is still so far beyond Dannyboy that, much like Dr. Dre said to his rival rappers, "You couldn't see me with binoculars." Oh, and if you want to make the argument right now that A-Rod chokes in the playoffs do me a favor: shut down the internet window you are viewing this blog on and never, ever, ever come back here again because you are a retard. Also, and this has nothing to do with anything right now except that I'm watching Zombieland, I really dig Emma Stone. ADVANTAGE: Yankees
SHORTSTOP: J.J. Hardy (.268/.320/.394 - 6 HRs) vs. Derek Jeter (.270/.340/.370 - 18 SBs). In what is quickly becoming a common theme, Jeter is having the worst year of his career, but this one is at least close. In actually, Hardy out OPSes Jeter, even though it's like comparing Alexi Casilla to Matt Tolbert, thanks to his higher slugging, and according to every defensive metric I looked it, which is everything fangraphs has, Hardy is a better fielder. So we're going to have to give this one to Minnesota. Which doesn't feel right. And not because it's Captain Intensity and Sportsmanship, because he's been overrated for years, but because it's Hardy and he kind of sucks. Sorry ladies. ADVANTAGE: Twins
LEFT FIELD: Delmon Young (.298/.333/.493 - 21 HRs) vs. Brett Gardner (.277/.383/.379 - 47 SBs). Tough call, because these guys couldn't be more different. Young is the lumbering stick-man, finally coming into his own and showing some of his promise while at every pitch within a 4-mile radius of home plate. Gardner is the fleet of foot slap-hitter who is probably the best left-fielder in baseball and is very selective at the plate. It is close, but Young's extra power can't make up for Gardner's non-hitting skills. And I don't mean like, his ability to cook a nice steak on the grill (top notch from what I hear. He uses a little bit of garlic butter is the rumor), I mean the speed and fielding thing. ADVANTAGE: Yankees
CENTER FIELD: Denard Span (.264/.331/.348 - 26 SBs, 10 3Bs) vs. Curtis Granderson (.247/.324/.468 - 24 HRs). Sigh. Remember when Span looked like he was going to become your prototypical leadoff hitter? Like a poor man's Tim Raines with less steals? Well now he's more like a poor man's Vince Coleman with way, way less steals (NOTE: Coleman was actually a terrible hitter, which you probably don't remember because you were blinded by his blindingly blinding speed. Blind.) Granderson has been just barely good this year, but he destroys the new, slower Vince Coleman. Quick, guess how many walks Spoleman has had since August 24th: It's 12. Jason Repko has nine in that same time frame, and he plays like every 8th day. In short, Denard Span is a huge disappointment and I hope he gets the mumps. ADVANTAGE: Yankees
RIGHT FIELD: Jason Kubel (.249/.323/.427 - 21 HRs) vs. Nick Swisher (.288/.359/.511 - 29 HRs). Both of these guys would be better off playing softball so don't expect any great fielding antics (unless you count diving and catching a ball a normal fielder would get to standing up as a great fielding play), but Swisher is merely bad while my boy Kubes is basically a butcher of historic proportions. And as far as hitting goes, Kubel is Kubel this year, while Swisher is what Kubel was last year. No contest. ADVANTAGE: Yankees
DESIGNATED HITTER: Jim Thome (.283/.412/.627 - 25 HRs) vs. Lance Berkman (.248/.368/.413). Thank god Thome is involved here, because he'd win a comparison against anyone. Berkman? Please. A-Rod? Not this year. Babe Ruth? Sorry fatty. Zeus? No mythical beings allowed. Jesus? I said no mythical beings allowed. So Berkman and his big giant chin have no chance. ADVANTAGE: Twins
STARTER #1/#5: Francisco Liriano (14-10, 3.62 ERA, 1.26 WHIP) vs. CC Sabathia (21-7, 3.18 ERA, 1.19 WHIP). This is an incredibly even matchup, especially because when you start looking at the nerd stats Liriano actually comes out pretty far ahead thanks to his great HR/9 mark and because his walk and strikeout numbers are way better than Sabathia's. Just looking at the "mainstream" stats you'd pick Sabathia, but go a bit deeper and it's pretty obvious Liriano has actually been the better pitcher this year, and it's actually not all that close. ADVANTAGE: Twins
STARTER #2: Carl Pavano (17-11, 3.75 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) vs. Andy Pettitte (11-3, 3.28 ERA, 1.27 WHIP). This is a pretty even matchup, if you ignore the fact that the Twins seemingly couldn't hit Pettitte if he tossed the ball underhand. A little wrinkle here is that Pettite is just getting back from injury, having pitched just three times since mid-July, and topped out at just 88 pitches in those three starts since returning. Pavano has been very good this year, even though he's tapered off a bit since that streak of 18 consecutive complete games or whatever it was, and with his propensity to throw strikes the patient approach of the Yankees shouldn't bother him, and may even play in his favor. ADVANTAGE: Twins
STARTER #3: Brian Duensing (10-3, 2.62 ERA, 1.20 WHIP) vs. Phil Hughes (18-8, 4.19 ERA, 1.25 WHIP). One thing I really love about this matchup is that since the all-star break Hughes has been absolutely awful, with an ERA near 5 despite a fluky low BABIP of .262 and less than a 2-1 KK/BB ratio. That means he's been simply dreadful. And we know, outside of his last few starts, that Duensing has been brilliant this year, so all signs point to a Twinkie advantage. Except of course, that the last time he pitched at Yankee Stadium in the playoffs he got shelled. Still.....ADVANTAGE: Twins
STARTER #4: Nick Blackburn (10-12, 5.42 ERA, 1.45 WHIP) vs. A.J. Burnett (10-15, 5.26 ERA, 1.51 WHIP). I know Blackburn has been pitching must better since his trip to AAA, and I know Burnett is mostly a mess, but I can't possibly give the advantage to the Twins here. Blackburn doesn't have great stuff so he must rely on location so much that his margin for error is razor-thin, and when he's even slightly off he's gotten roasted by the likes of Baltimore, Oakland, and Kansas City - can you imagine what the Yankees will do to him if he's not 100% locked in? It's not like Burnett has been great lately, since June 4th his ERA is 6.46, and I know Blackburn has come up in the clutch in the past, but I just can't do it. Plus Sabathia is almost certainly going to be the one pitching this game. ADVANTAGE: Yankees
[NOTE: New York hasn't announced their pitching lineup, so this is all just conjecture. Good chance Sabathia comes back to pitch game #4 (where he'd obviously have a huge advantage over Blackburn), leaving Pettitte vs. Liriano for game 5 if it gets that far.]
CLOSER: Matt Capps (42/48 saves, 2.47 ERA, 1.26 WHIP) vs. Mariano Rivera (33/38 saves, 1.80 ERA, 0.83 WHIP). Father fucking time aka the Sandman just keeps rolling along, and you can throw out that blown save to the Twins earlier because those 2 ERs he allowed accounted for 33% of the ERs he allowed through August. Of course, he's been super-mortal here in September, with an ERA of 7.38 and 3 blown saves in the month, but I'm not exactly ready to call him done just yet. Plus, the best team Capps has ever played on before this year was a 68-win Pirate team, so not only has he never pitched in the playoffs, but he's really never pitched in a meaningful game. Seriously, how do you feel when you think about Capps coming in to Yankee Stadium in the bottom of the ninth with the Twins up 3-2? Nauseous, at best. ADVANTAGE: Yankees
BULLPEN: Crain/Fuentes/Guerrier/Mijaries/Rauch vs. Wood/Chamberlain/Robertson/Gaudin/Logan. I haven't seen the Yankees postseason roster, so I'm not sure if all those guys will be on there, but the main three - Wood, Chamberlain, and Robertson - certainly will be. Wood has basically been unhittable since he came over from Cleveland, but Chamberlain hasn't been great this year (although he still strikes out a ton of guys and can be untouchable when he's on) and Robertson is definitely hittable. One thing that should help the Twins out is that the only lefty in the pen is Boone Logan, and although he's been good this year and particularly tough on lefties, he's been awful in his career overall and hasn't ever pitched in the postseason - could be where the Twins can take advantage. Overall, despite the struggles in the last couple of weeks, I like the Twins' group better. Although every single one of them scares me to death. ADVANTAGE: Twins
Total it all up and the Twins look good on the mound, with the Yankees holding an advantage at the plate and win the overall breakdown by the slimmest of margins at 8-7. Of course, games aren't played with words on crappy, third-rate blogs, they're played between the lines where anything can happen. Because this is your state, this is your team, and this is Twins Territory!
Yanks in 4.
But not if WonderbabyTM has anything to say about it.
If you're looking for another take, here's Reusse's breakdown using a similar method, but the results are very, very different and a lot more stupider.
CATCHER: Joe Mauer (.327/.402/.469 - 9 HRs) vs. Jorge Posada (.248/.357/.454). Mauer is going to win this battle against any playoff catcher this year, although there's somebody in San Fran who might make a pretty good argument, but his hitting - even with his power disappearing - combined with his defense make him easily the winner in this argument. Posada is still an ageless wonder but his skills are starting to diminish, even though - and you're going to hear this a lot with NYY - he's still patient and draws a lot of walks and can still hit for power. His arm is basically shot (he only threw out 16% of base-stealers this year) but that won't really matter since the Twins can't/don't really run. ADVANTAGE: Twins
FIRST BASE: Michael Cuddyer (.271/.336/.417 - 14 HRs) vs. Mark Texeira (.256/.365/.481 - 33 HRs). This year was an off year for Tex (worst avg, obp, and slugging since he was a rook), but he still blows what the Twins have to offer completely out of the water. The bad Cuddy showed up this year, which is unfortunate because this is when they could use him most, what with their best player on the shelf the second half of the year. Hopefully he can recapture some of that 2006/2009 magic, because the Twins are going to need all the big bats they can get. Plus, Texeira is a 3-time gold glover, and although it's commendable that Cuddy is willing to play wherever they need him he's a god awful 1B-man. ADVANTAGE: Yankees
SECOND BASE: Orlando Hudson (.268/.338/.372 - 10 SBs) vs. Robinson Cano (.319/.381/.534 - 29 HRs). Look at those numbers. Cano is just ridiculous. Do you realize that slugging percentage of Cano's is the second-highest of any player in this series, behind on Jim Thome? And we know what Thome has done, but Cano isn't that far behind. And he plays frickin' second base! I don't mind Hudson, despite the fact that he's hit .171 since September 8th, but he's far, far, far outclassed here. Cano is basically Joe Mauer with power, while O-Hud is, well, Alexi Casilla with a a better reputation. ADVANTAGE: Yankees
THIRD BASE: Danny Valencia (.311/.351/.448 - 7 HRs) vs. Alex Rodriguez (.270/.341/.506 - 30 HRs). Similar to Texeira, A-Rod had one of the worst years of his entire career but still blows the Twins' offering away. Not as badly as Tex, thanks to Valencia's high average, good defense, and the fact that he seems to be getting better, but Rodiguez is still so far beyond Dannyboy that, much like Dr. Dre said to his rival rappers, "You couldn't see me with binoculars." Oh, and if you want to make the argument right now that A-Rod chokes in the playoffs do me a favor: shut down the internet window you are viewing this blog on and never, ever, ever come back here again because you are a retard. Also, and this has nothing to do with anything right now except that I'm watching Zombieland, I really dig Emma Stone. ADVANTAGE: Yankees
SHORTSTOP: J.J. Hardy (.268/.320/.394 - 6 HRs) vs. Derek Jeter (.270/.340/.370 - 18 SBs). In what is quickly becoming a common theme, Jeter is having the worst year of his career, but this one is at least close. In actually, Hardy out OPSes Jeter, even though it's like comparing Alexi Casilla to Matt Tolbert, thanks to his higher slugging, and according to every defensive metric I looked it, which is everything fangraphs has, Hardy is a better fielder. So we're going to have to give this one to Minnesota. Which doesn't feel right. And not because it's Captain Intensity and Sportsmanship, because he's been overrated for years, but because it's Hardy and he kind of sucks. Sorry ladies. ADVANTAGE: Twins
LEFT FIELD: Delmon Young (.298/.333/.493 - 21 HRs) vs. Brett Gardner (.277/.383/.379 - 47 SBs). Tough call, because these guys couldn't be more different. Young is the lumbering stick-man, finally coming into his own and showing some of his promise while at every pitch within a 4-mile radius of home plate. Gardner is the fleet of foot slap-hitter who is probably the best left-fielder in baseball and is very selective at the plate. It is close, but Young's extra power can't make up for Gardner's non-hitting skills. And I don't mean like, his ability to cook a nice steak on the grill (top notch from what I hear. He uses a little bit of garlic butter is the rumor), I mean the speed and fielding thing. ADVANTAGE: Yankees
CENTER FIELD: Denard Span (.264/.331/.348 - 26 SBs, 10 3Bs) vs. Curtis Granderson (.247/.324/.468 - 24 HRs). Sigh. Remember when Span looked like he was going to become your prototypical leadoff hitter? Like a poor man's Tim Raines with less steals? Well now he's more like a poor man's Vince Coleman with way, way less steals (NOTE: Coleman was actually a terrible hitter, which you probably don't remember because you were blinded by his blindingly blinding speed. Blind.) Granderson has been just barely good this year, but he destroys the new, slower Vince Coleman. Quick, guess how many walks Spoleman has had since August 24th: It's 12. Jason Repko has nine in that same time frame, and he plays like every 8th day. In short, Denard Span is a huge disappointment and I hope he gets the mumps. ADVANTAGE: Yankees
RIGHT FIELD: Jason Kubel (.249/.323/.427 - 21 HRs) vs. Nick Swisher (.288/.359/.511 - 29 HRs). Both of these guys would be better off playing softball so don't expect any great fielding antics (unless you count diving and catching a ball a normal fielder would get to standing up as a great fielding play), but Swisher is merely bad while my boy Kubes is basically a butcher of historic proportions. And as far as hitting goes, Kubel is Kubel this year, while Swisher is what Kubel was last year. No contest. ADVANTAGE: Yankees
DESIGNATED HITTER: Jim Thome (.283/.412/.627 - 25 HRs) vs. Lance Berkman (.248/.368/.413). Thank god Thome is involved here, because he'd win a comparison against anyone. Berkman? Please. A-Rod? Not this year. Babe Ruth? Sorry fatty. Zeus? No mythical beings allowed. Jesus? I said no mythical beings allowed. So Berkman and his big giant chin have no chance. ADVANTAGE: Twins
STARTER #1/#5: Francisco Liriano (14-10, 3.62 ERA, 1.26 WHIP) vs. CC Sabathia (21-7, 3.18 ERA, 1.19 WHIP). This is an incredibly even matchup, especially because when you start looking at the nerd stats Liriano actually comes out pretty far ahead thanks to his great HR/9 mark and because his walk and strikeout numbers are way better than Sabathia's. Just looking at the "mainstream" stats you'd pick Sabathia, but go a bit deeper and it's pretty obvious Liriano has actually been the better pitcher this year, and it's actually not all that close. ADVANTAGE: Twins
STARTER #2: Carl Pavano (17-11, 3.75 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) vs. Andy Pettitte (11-3, 3.28 ERA, 1.27 WHIP). This is a pretty even matchup, if you ignore the fact that the Twins seemingly couldn't hit Pettitte if he tossed the ball underhand. A little wrinkle here is that Pettite is just getting back from injury, having pitched just three times since mid-July, and topped out at just 88 pitches in those three starts since returning. Pavano has been very good this year, even though he's tapered off a bit since that streak of 18 consecutive complete games or whatever it was, and with his propensity to throw strikes the patient approach of the Yankees shouldn't bother him, and may even play in his favor. ADVANTAGE: Twins
STARTER #3: Brian Duensing (10-3, 2.62 ERA, 1.20 WHIP) vs. Phil Hughes (18-8, 4.19 ERA, 1.25 WHIP). One thing I really love about this matchup is that since the all-star break Hughes has been absolutely awful, with an ERA near 5 despite a fluky low BABIP of .262 and less than a 2-1 KK/BB ratio. That means he's been simply dreadful. And we know, outside of his last few starts, that Duensing has been brilliant this year, so all signs point to a Twinkie advantage. Except of course, that the last time he pitched at Yankee Stadium in the playoffs he got shelled. Still.....ADVANTAGE: Twins
STARTER #4: Nick Blackburn (10-12, 5.42 ERA, 1.45 WHIP) vs. A.J. Burnett (10-15, 5.26 ERA, 1.51 WHIP). I know Blackburn has been pitching must better since his trip to AAA, and I know Burnett is mostly a mess, but I can't possibly give the advantage to the Twins here. Blackburn doesn't have great stuff so he must rely on location so much that his margin for error is razor-thin, and when he's even slightly off he's gotten roasted by the likes of Baltimore, Oakland, and Kansas City - can you imagine what the Yankees will do to him if he's not 100% locked in? It's not like Burnett has been great lately, since June 4th his ERA is 6.46, and I know Blackburn has come up in the clutch in the past, but I just can't do it. Plus Sabathia is almost certainly going to be the one pitching this game. ADVANTAGE: Yankees
[NOTE: New York hasn't announced their pitching lineup, so this is all just conjecture. Good chance Sabathia comes back to pitch game #4 (where he'd obviously have a huge advantage over Blackburn), leaving Pettitte vs. Liriano for game 5 if it gets that far.]
CLOSER: Matt Capps (42/48 saves, 2.47 ERA, 1.26 WHIP) vs. Mariano Rivera (33/38 saves, 1.80 ERA, 0.83 WHIP). Father fucking time aka the Sandman just keeps rolling along, and you can throw out that blown save to the Twins earlier because those 2 ERs he allowed accounted for 33% of the ERs he allowed through August. Of course, he's been super-mortal here in September, with an ERA of 7.38 and 3 blown saves in the month, but I'm not exactly ready to call him done just yet. Plus, the best team Capps has ever played on before this year was a 68-win Pirate team, so not only has he never pitched in the playoffs, but he's really never pitched in a meaningful game. Seriously, how do you feel when you think about Capps coming in to Yankee Stadium in the bottom of the ninth with the Twins up 3-2? Nauseous, at best. ADVANTAGE: Yankees
BULLPEN: Crain/Fuentes/Guerrier/Mijaries/Rauch vs. Wood/Chamberlain/Robertson/Gaudin/Logan. I haven't seen the Yankees postseason roster, so I'm not sure if all those guys will be on there, but the main three - Wood, Chamberlain, and Robertson - certainly will be. Wood has basically been unhittable since he came over from Cleveland, but Chamberlain hasn't been great this year (although he still strikes out a ton of guys and can be untouchable when he's on) and Robertson is definitely hittable. One thing that should help the Twins out is that the only lefty in the pen is Boone Logan, and although he's been good this year and particularly tough on lefties, he's been awful in his career overall and hasn't ever pitched in the postseason - could be where the Twins can take advantage. Overall, despite the struggles in the last couple of weeks, I like the Twins' group better. Although every single one of them scares me to death. ADVANTAGE: Twins
Total it all up and the Twins look good on the mound, with the Yankees holding an advantage at the plate and win the overall breakdown by the slimmest of margins at 8-7. Of course, games aren't played with words on crappy, third-rate blogs, they're played between the lines where anything can happen. Because this is your state, this is your team, and this is Twins Territory!
Yanks in 4.
But not if WonderbabyTM has anything to say about it.
If you're looking for another take, here's Reusse's breakdown using a similar method, but the results are very, very different and a lot more stupider.
Big 12 College Basketball 2010 Preview
That's right kids, I'm back to give my NCAA basketball previews, conference by conference, for another year, because it's about that time, to bring forth the rhythm and the rhyme, I'm a get mine so get yours, I want to see sweat comin' out your pores. I'm starting with the Big 12 this year because that's where my sleeper for the NCAA Championship resides. Come on, swing it.
1. Baylor Bears. And this would be that sleeper. They did lose three starters off the Elite 8 team from last year, including lottery pick Ekpe Udoh and starting point man Tweety Carter, but the pieces are in place for a deep run by the Bears. LaceDarius Dunn is back, might be the best guard in the nation, and is capable of taking over a game all by himself, and talented freshman center Perry Jones is the type of freshman who can carry a team and will be one of the top newcomers in the country. The key to how far they'll be able to go will be the development of a couple of sophomore guards who were bit players last year but were both highly regarded recruits. If either Nolan Dennis or A.J. Walton can fill that Tweety Carter role the Bears could absolutely be cutting down the nets at the conclusion of the season. Actually I'd even go so far as to say probably. They'll probably be cutting down the nets. Current odds: 30-1. You might want to throw a sawbuck on that.
2. Kansas Jayhawks. Like Baylor, the Jayhawks lose a lot of firepower from last year, but it's not like Kansas just goes around recruiting stiffs - there are a ton of very talented guys who will be asked to step up their contributions this year, and based on pedigree they shouldn't have a problem doing it. Assuming Josh Selby ends up being declared eligible they will be a national contender, and even if he isn't they should be a quality, deep team. I would guess he'll be cleared, being that this is Kansas and not Kentucky. Expect Kansas to be one of the best teams in the country and a top seed, only to be upset in the tournament for something like the 9th time in the last 10 years, not counting that year they won of course.
3. Kansas State Wildcats. Expect these guys to be media darlings this year (one magazine I've looked at picked them first in the conference) due to their crazy eyed coach and Jake Pullen and his beard. I absolutely love Pullen, and have written about him on this blog a couple of times, but it will be interesting to see how he responds without backcourt mate Denis Clemente this year. Still, besides Pullen there are a bunch of athletic, talented big men and wings, and if a couple of them can improve upon last year (particularly Wally Judge, a top 20 recruit according to Rivals a year ago who played only 12 minutes per game last year) they could go far. Also you know that mafia looking coach of there's has mob ties, so if anybody hears anything about a fix involving K-State can you let me know so I can throw some dollars at it?
4. Missouri Tigers. Mizzou took a hit when prized recruit (#12 according to Rivals) Tony Mitchell was ruled ineligible for the fall semester, but there's still plenty of talent returning including the team's three top scorers from last year in guards Kim English and Marcus Denmon and forward Laurence Bowers. They are pretty well stocked in both the backcourt and the frontcourt and have a very nice recruiting class coming in, even without Mitchell. The Tigers traditionally play an awesomely fun 40-minutes of hell type of ball, and with their stockpile of guards and athletic wings they're loaded for a nice run. Or, more accurately, 40 minutes of run per game.
5. Texas Longhorns. It pains me to praise them after they stole Cory Joseph from the Gophers, but the Longhorns will be much the same - supremely talented - despite losing four starters. Will that talent gel, like in 2008, or will it fizzle into disappointment as it did last year? Don't know, but it should be fun to watch. Joseph and Tristan Thompson are two of the top freshman in the country. Jai Lucas was a highly touted PG out of high school who has disappointed but is looking for a new start. Jordan Hamilton looks like a likely breakout star. Gary Johnson has been an excellent sidekick for years, but will finally be a feature player. Like I said, lots of talent. Let's see if Rick Barnes screws this one up, because you know there's only three things in Texas: steers, queers, and underachieving sports teams.
6. Texas Tech Red Raiders. I'm not sure how talented they are, but they are definitely experienced with five of their top six players returning, all of whom are going to be seniors. Mike Singletary (not that one) was talented enough to score 43 against TAMU a two years ago and score 20 in a game ten times last year, and John Roberson led the Big 12 in assists last season. With some good talent coming in to join the experienced old people this team will probably end up being tough to beat. They aren't going to be any kind of real contender for the national title or anything, but they'll probably upset some of the top conference contenders at home.
7. Colorado Buffaloes. Colorado actually has a chance to make the NCAA Tournament this year, which seems weird to say but they have a couple of supremely talented players in Alec Burks and Cory Higgins. Burks actually flirted with the NBA draft this offseason after winning Big 12 Freshman of the Year, but ultimately returned for another year, and Higgins has been All-Big 12 third team twice in his career. If these two get any help, any help at (from, say, former Gopher recruit Austin Dufault) all they'll threaten to make the NCAA Tournament and will be the best Buffaloes team in a long time. Although I suppose that isn't saying much since they have just two tournament appearances (and one win) since 1970. So they're due.
8. Texas A&M Aggies. While most of the other teams above them in this ranking seem to have at least one of their key contributors back, the Aggies are going to be looking for some role players to step up. David Loubeau gets the most press as a possible breakout type, but Khris Middleton is the guy I expect to make major strides and become a star. He hit double-figures in scoring in four of the Aggies last five games last season after getting there just six times prior, while hitting 12 of 22 three-pointers. He's a three point marksman who is also an athletic scorer. Or, as I like to call it, a perfect basketball player. Yes, I'm saing Middleton basketball player heading towards multiple All-American teams and a likely Hall-of-Fame NBA career. What of it?
9. Oklahoma State Cowboys. James Anderson won't be easy to replace, and losing second leading scorer Obi Muonelo is an extra little kick in the teeth, but there is some good talent returning. Marshall Moses showed some nice flashes last year, and Keiton Page is fun in that mad-bomber kind of way. Still, the key to the season might be freshman Michael Cobbins, one of the top ranked power forwards in the country according to Rivals, and the kind of player, if as good as advertised, who could take this team from "meh" to "huh."
10. Nebraska Cornhuskers. We here in Big Ten country will get to see them just a bit more often in the future, and hopefully for them the move will help their talent level because this is one of the more moribund college hoops programs in the country. That isn't to say there's no talent here - Brian Diaz is a nice seven-footer who is just a sophomore and had some high quality games for the Huskers last year- but it's not the kind of talent that's going to compete for anything meaningful. Again. Hopefully the conference move and a new stadium will help upgrade the talent level because, frankly, we've already got a Penn State.
11. Iowa State Cyclones. Freddy Hoiberg is certainly in for two very different years the next couple of seasons. Next year, with an interesting recruiting class this year (including eligibility risk Calvin Godfrey) and next joining up with Big Ten problem children Royce White and Chris Allen there will be a lot of eyes looking to see how his "take a chance on anybody with talent, despite the baggage" strategy works out. This year, however, there's no pressure and no worries because there isn't much talent (although I am a fan of Diante Garrett) and only four players are back from last year. I am betting things turn around in a hurry with Hoiberg and his risk/reward strategy, however. Or blow up in his face like Royce White at the Mall of America.
12. Oklahoma Sooners. Losing your three best players (Willie Warren, Tiny Gallon, Tommy Mason-Griffin) who made up basically your entire offense is going to hurt, but perhaps not as much as any possible ramifications coming down from the NCAA due to the Tiny Gallon situation. Capel is an excellent young coach, but with nearly the entire starting lineup gone and nobody signed for after this season things aren't exactly looking up in Norman. There is some talent in the large recruiting class coming in this year, with an elite-level player in Cameron Clark, so if they can squeak past the NCAA hit squad things could turn around, but for this year they'll probably be a scrappy, last-place team that scares a lot of conference opponents at times, but loses out on talent at the end. Like Gopher football, except without the scaring opponents part. Or the scrappy part.
If you came here for baseball talk, what with the playoffs and all, don't worry your pretty little head. I'm cooking up a little ALDS primer, coming your way tomorrow. Or possibly Wednesday morning. Here's a preview: We're doomed.
1. Baylor Bears. And this would be that sleeper. They did lose three starters off the Elite 8 team from last year, including lottery pick Ekpe Udoh and starting point man Tweety Carter, but the pieces are in place for a deep run by the Bears. LaceDarius Dunn is back, might be the best guard in the nation, and is capable of taking over a game all by himself, and talented freshman center Perry Jones is the type of freshman who can carry a team and will be one of the top newcomers in the country. The key to how far they'll be able to go will be the development of a couple of sophomore guards who were bit players last year but were both highly regarded recruits. If either Nolan Dennis or A.J. Walton can fill that Tweety Carter role the Bears could absolutely be cutting down the nets at the conclusion of the season. Actually I'd even go so far as to say probably. They'll probably be cutting down the nets. Current odds: 30-1. You might want to throw a sawbuck on that.
2. Kansas Jayhawks. Like Baylor, the Jayhawks lose a lot of firepower from last year, but it's not like Kansas just goes around recruiting stiffs - there are a ton of very talented guys who will be asked to step up their contributions this year, and based on pedigree they shouldn't have a problem doing it. Assuming Josh Selby ends up being declared eligible they will be a national contender, and even if he isn't they should be a quality, deep team. I would guess he'll be cleared, being that this is Kansas and not Kentucky. Expect Kansas to be one of the best teams in the country and a top seed, only to be upset in the tournament for something like the 9th time in the last 10 years, not counting that year they won of course.
3. Kansas State Wildcats. Expect these guys to be media darlings this year (one magazine I've looked at picked them first in the conference) due to their crazy eyed coach and Jake Pullen and his beard. I absolutely love Pullen, and have written about him on this blog a couple of times, but it will be interesting to see how he responds without backcourt mate Denis Clemente this year. Still, besides Pullen there are a bunch of athletic, talented big men and wings, and if a couple of them can improve upon last year (particularly Wally Judge, a top 20 recruit according to Rivals a year ago who played only 12 minutes per game last year) they could go far. Also you know that mafia looking coach of there's has mob ties, so if anybody hears anything about a fix involving K-State can you let me know so I can throw some dollars at it?
4. Missouri Tigers. Mizzou took a hit when prized recruit (#12 according to Rivals) Tony Mitchell was ruled ineligible for the fall semester, but there's still plenty of talent returning including the team's three top scorers from last year in guards Kim English and Marcus Denmon and forward Laurence Bowers. They are pretty well stocked in both the backcourt and the frontcourt and have a very nice recruiting class coming in, even without Mitchell. The Tigers traditionally play an awesomely fun 40-minutes of hell type of ball, and with their stockpile of guards and athletic wings they're loaded for a nice run. Or, more accurately, 40 minutes of run per game.
5. Texas Longhorns. It pains me to praise them after they stole Cory Joseph from the Gophers, but the Longhorns will be much the same - supremely talented - despite losing four starters. Will that talent gel, like in 2008, or will it fizzle into disappointment as it did last year? Don't know, but it should be fun to watch. Joseph and Tristan Thompson are two of the top freshman in the country. Jai Lucas was a highly touted PG out of high school who has disappointed but is looking for a new start. Jordan Hamilton looks like a likely breakout star. Gary Johnson has been an excellent sidekick for years, but will finally be a feature player. Like I said, lots of talent. Let's see if Rick Barnes screws this one up, because you know there's only three things in Texas: steers, queers, and underachieving sports teams.
6. Texas Tech Red Raiders. I'm not sure how talented they are, but they are definitely experienced with five of their top six players returning, all of whom are going to be seniors. Mike Singletary (not that one) was talented enough to score 43 against TAMU a two years ago and score 20 in a game ten times last year, and John Roberson led the Big 12 in assists last season. With some good talent coming in to join the experienced old people this team will probably end up being tough to beat. They aren't going to be any kind of real contender for the national title or anything, but they'll probably upset some of the top conference contenders at home.
7. Colorado Buffaloes. Colorado actually has a chance to make the NCAA Tournament this year, which seems weird to say but they have a couple of supremely talented players in Alec Burks and Cory Higgins. Burks actually flirted with the NBA draft this offseason after winning Big 12 Freshman of the Year, but ultimately returned for another year, and Higgins has been All-Big 12 third team twice in his career. If these two get any help, any help at (from, say, former Gopher recruit Austin Dufault) all they'll threaten to make the NCAA Tournament and will be the best Buffaloes team in a long time. Although I suppose that isn't saying much since they have just two tournament appearances (and one win) since 1970. So they're due.
8. Texas A&M Aggies. While most of the other teams above them in this ranking seem to have at least one of their key contributors back, the Aggies are going to be looking for some role players to step up. David Loubeau gets the most press as a possible breakout type, but Khris Middleton is the guy I expect to make major strides and become a star. He hit double-figures in scoring in four of the Aggies last five games last season after getting there just six times prior, while hitting 12 of 22 three-pointers. He's a three point marksman who is also an athletic scorer. Or, as I like to call it, a perfect basketball player. Yes, I'm saing Middleton basketball player heading towards multiple All-American teams and a likely Hall-of-Fame NBA career. What of it?
9. Oklahoma State Cowboys. James Anderson won't be easy to replace, and losing second leading scorer Obi Muonelo is an extra little kick in the teeth, but there is some good talent returning. Marshall Moses showed some nice flashes last year, and Keiton Page is fun in that mad-bomber kind of way. Still, the key to the season might be freshman Michael Cobbins, one of the top ranked power forwards in the country according to Rivals, and the kind of player, if as good as advertised, who could take this team from "meh" to "huh."
10. Nebraska Cornhuskers. We here in Big Ten country will get to see them just a bit more often in the future, and hopefully for them the move will help their talent level because this is one of the more moribund college hoops programs in the country. That isn't to say there's no talent here - Brian Diaz is a nice seven-footer who is just a sophomore and had some high quality games for the Huskers last year- but it's not the kind of talent that's going to compete for anything meaningful. Again. Hopefully the conference move and a new stadium will help upgrade the talent level because, frankly, we've already got a Penn State.
11. Iowa State Cyclones. Freddy Hoiberg is certainly in for two very different years the next couple of seasons. Next year, with an interesting recruiting class this year (including eligibility risk Calvin Godfrey) and next joining up with Big Ten problem children Royce White and Chris Allen there will be a lot of eyes looking to see how his "take a chance on anybody with talent, despite the baggage" strategy works out. This year, however, there's no pressure and no worries because there isn't much talent (although I am a fan of Diante Garrett) and only four players are back from last year. I am betting things turn around in a hurry with Hoiberg and his risk/reward strategy, however. Or blow up in his face like Royce White at the Mall of America.
12. Oklahoma Sooners. Losing your three best players (Willie Warren, Tiny Gallon, Tommy Mason-Griffin) who made up basically your entire offense is going to hurt, but perhaps not as much as any possible ramifications coming down from the NCAA due to the Tiny Gallon situation. Capel is an excellent young coach, but with nearly the entire starting lineup gone and nobody signed for after this season things aren't exactly looking up in Norman. There is some talent in the large recruiting class coming in this year, with an elite-level player in Cameron Clark, so if they can squeak past the NCAA hit squad things could turn around, but for this year they'll probably be a scrappy, last-place team that scares a lot of conference opponents at times, but loses out on talent at the end. Like Gopher football, except without the scaring opponents part. Or the scrappy part.
If you came here for baseball talk, what with the playoffs and all, don't worry your pretty little head. I'm cooking up a little ALDS primer, coming your way tomorrow. Or possibly Wednesday morning. Here's a preview: We're doomed.
Tuesday, September 28, 2010
Random Thoughts on a Tuesday Night
It's some random thoughts on a Tuesday night, much like the title told you. What the title didn't tell you, however, and what you know that people who just read the title and clicked close don't, is that I'm sucking back some sweet, sweet alcohol while I type this, in the form of vodka & iced tea. Is that weird? I feel like that might be weird, but it's good. So suck it.
- I read something today where a writer asked if Dayton was the next Butler, college hoopswise. I wish I could find the damn article, but nevertheless it sent me into a rage, as you'd guess, because I hate Dayton worse than I hate you. If you recall, or if you're new, you might remember that the Bar I frequent when I go to Chicago for the NCAA Tournament with Snacks, Snake, and Dawger when we visit Bogart and his giant TV is also a Dayton bar, and one year we were there Dayton was actually playing and their fans were some of the biggest idiot poser fancy boys I had ever seen.
So, last year when I was previewing the Atlantic 10 I referred to Dayton fans as hipster doofuses and predicted they'd miss the NCAA Tournament. Dayton fans found the blog and did not much appreciate my comments. Several emails of an unsavory nature were exchanged, there was mention of my living in a trailer (note: not true), and let's just say it wasn't pretty. Also, I fucking hate Dayton. Thus, said article which I can not find pretty much prompted this entire post.
And it deserves to be written about, because Dayton is about as far from Butler as Nick Blackburn is from a competent pitcher. First, Dayton's conference is light years beyond Butler's. The Horizon is a perennial one-bid conference, whereas the A-10 almost always sends between two and four teams; might as well ask if Xavier is the next North Carolina. Secondly, what exactly are we basing this dynastic prediction on, four straight years of underachievement topped off by an NIT Championship? One NCAA berth in the last six years? Really, an NIT Championship doesn't mean anything - really, despite what they want you to think nobody uses it as a springboard to success, ever - and even if it did, Dayton is losing seven players and 3 starters so who cares? This whole dynasty is based around an overrated PF (Chris Wright) who can't ever stay healthy, and now they need a freshman and a transfer from fucking Drake to be their ballhandlers.
Dayton is a dynasty the same way Two and a Half Men is a good show - it's not true and you'd have to be a god damned moron to think so. The Flyers and their fans can all bite me.
- Jennifer Love Hewitt is going to be guesting on Law & Order: SVU? Man, how far has she fallen? If you have a chance and haven't, go rent Heartbreakers and prepare for boner city. No kidding, probably the hottest chick in a movie ever not counting Mila Kunis in Forgetting Sarah Marshall, Audrina in Sorority Row, and Tiffani Thiessen in anything ever. You forget, but Jennifer Love Hewitt used to be at the absolute top of the hot chick pyramid. Now she's doing Lifetime movies and guest spots. She's now the Dayton of hot chicks. Sad.
- I'm all for relaxing, but anybody else think the Twins might want to continue playing this season instead of just packing it in until the playoffs start? I'm not entirely sure of the rules here, but I think if they don't start winning games Bud Selig might step in and renounce them from the playoffs. And who the hell is going to be the fourth starter now? Slowey threw batting practice yesterday, and tonight Blackburn is getting lit up by Mike Aviles and Kila Ka'aihue for christ's sake. Everything is set up for Baker, and he's probably the best choice anyway because he's the least likely to give up 6 runs in 3 innings. Not that he's necessarily not likely, just slightly less likely than the velocity haters he's in competition with.
Seriously, close your eyes. Now take off your pants. Now imagine it's game four of the ALDS, we're at Yankee stadium, and the Twins are down 2 games to 1, but all games have been closely played. They need someone to shut down the Yankees on the road. Who is the last pitcher you'd want out there? Correct, it's Nick Blackburn. I would have also accepted Kevin Slowey, Anthony Swarzak, or Jeff Manship. Scott Baker ranks slightly ahead of them because he's more likely to be absolutely lights out, no matter who he's facing. Of course, we could also see the longest home run in the history of Yankee baseball (and Mantle allegedly hit a 600 footer). Yes, longer than Mantles. Imagine a 3-0 count on A-Rod. Now take off your pants again. Now imagine the bases are loaded and the winning run is on third, so Baker has to throw a strike. How far could A-Rod hit that ball? 700 ft? 800?
- Anybody else watching The Event? I don't think it's terrible just yet, but I do think it's trying awfully hard to be both Lost and 24, even though I never ever watched 24 because it takes more than gun fights and explosions to entertain me. Anyway, it seems ok and any time D.B. Sweeney is involved you know I'm a fan, but this show could take a wrong turn in an awful hurry. I mean, this "plot" is like tightrope thin. Kind of like how the Dark Tower series by Stephen King could be brilliant on TV in the right hands, but would be a laughable train wreck if handled incorrectly. Or like the Game of Thrones series coming up on HBO. Real delicate stuff here. Actually, I'm not really sure why I made that comparison, except that those are two of my favorite book series and one is coming to TV and the other might be soon. Really, so far The Event is weird and doesn't make much sense and I only watched about half of episode two, but it's got this chick in a bikini so I'll keep watching:
- Speaking of Episode 2, Mrs. W bought WonderbabyTM a Star Wars coloring book today, which she loved, and she likes to watch me play Lego Star Wars, so we watched a half hour of Episode I today (went with that one because it's most kid friendly) and she thought it rocked and didn't want to turn it off. I'm looking to have her fully nerdifyed by age 4.
- So who's excited for the Ryder Cup? I am. I think the Euro team is far better than the Americans, but we have a few units down on the USA just because, like Billy Mitchell, I'm proud to represent my country, even when I'm not really representing anything and really am more just betting on people who are representing my country. Like Lex Luger. Anyway, Sergio sucking too bad all year to not make the team is a huge break for the Americanos, because that dude is a machine at this stuff (career 14-3-3 record). Nobody on the American team is a good Ryder Cup player, and Mickelson and Furyk are two of the worst, and unfortunately Jeff Overton made the team and then Rickie Fowler got picked for some reason, so really there is no reason to be on the USA except blind faith in good ole apple pie and blue jeans. And a good underdog payout.
- The Rockies are losing again tonight, and most people don't really care, but we have the Rockies at OVER 85.5 wins for the year, and currently they are at 83-73 which means they need to go 3-3 to win the bet, which is starting to look less and less likely due to this incredible un-Rocky-like skid they are in which, if they lose again tonight, will have them at 1-8 in their last 9 games. Which means that nine games ago they were 82-65 and needed to go just 4-11 to win it for us. Thanks assholes. I blame Helton.
- Also the Mets just need to lose two more games. Pray for us.
- I'm sure there's more, but the baby is waking up and by the time I get done feeding and taking care of him, whatever mojo is driving this post will be long gone. So I'll just leave you with this: Dez Bryant is going to destroy the NFL, Randy Moss style. If not this year, then next.
Make your time.
- I read something today where a writer asked if Dayton was the next Butler, college hoopswise. I wish I could find the damn article, but nevertheless it sent me into a rage, as you'd guess, because I hate Dayton worse than I hate you. If you recall, or if you're new, you might remember that the Bar I frequent when I go to Chicago for the NCAA Tournament with Snacks, Snake, and Dawger when we visit Bogart and his giant TV is also a Dayton bar, and one year we were there Dayton was actually playing and their fans were some of the biggest idiot poser fancy boys I had ever seen.
So, last year when I was previewing the Atlantic 10 I referred to Dayton fans as hipster doofuses and predicted they'd miss the NCAA Tournament. Dayton fans found the blog and did not much appreciate my comments. Several emails of an unsavory nature were exchanged, there was mention of my living in a trailer (note: not true), and let's just say it wasn't pretty. Also, I fucking hate Dayton. Thus, said article which I can not find pretty much prompted this entire post.
And it deserves to be written about, because Dayton is about as far from Butler as Nick Blackburn is from a competent pitcher. First, Dayton's conference is light years beyond Butler's. The Horizon is a perennial one-bid conference, whereas the A-10 almost always sends between two and four teams; might as well ask if Xavier is the next North Carolina. Secondly, what exactly are we basing this dynastic prediction on, four straight years of underachievement topped off by an NIT Championship? One NCAA berth in the last six years? Really, an NIT Championship doesn't mean anything - really, despite what they want you to think nobody uses it as a springboard to success, ever - and even if it did, Dayton is losing seven players and 3 starters so who cares? This whole dynasty is based around an overrated PF (Chris Wright) who can't ever stay healthy, and now they need a freshman and a transfer from fucking Drake to be their ballhandlers.
Dayton is a dynasty the same way Two and a Half Men is a good show - it's not true and you'd have to be a god damned moron to think so. The Flyers and their fans can all bite me.
- Jennifer Love Hewitt is going to be guesting on Law & Order: SVU? Man, how far has she fallen? If you have a chance and haven't, go rent Heartbreakers and prepare for boner city. No kidding, probably the hottest chick in a movie ever not counting Mila Kunis in Forgetting Sarah Marshall, Audrina in Sorority Row, and Tiffani Thiessen in anything ever. You forget, but Jennifer Love Hewitt used to be at the absolute top of the hot chick pyramid. Now she's doing Lifetime movies and guest spots. She's now the Dayton of hot chicks. Sad.
- I'm all for relaxing, but anybody else think the Twins might want to continue playing this season instead of just packing it in until the playoffs start? I'm not entirely sure of the rules here, but I think if they don't start winning games Bud Selig might step in and renounce them from the playoffs. And who the hell is going to be the fourth starter now? Slowey threw batting practice yesterday, and tonight Blackburn is getting lit up by Mike Aviles and Kila Ka'aihue for christ's sake. Everything is set up for Baker, and he's probably the best choice anyway because he's the least likely to give up 6 runs in 3 innings. Not that he's necessarily not likely, just slightly less likely than the velocity haters he's in competition with.
Seriously, close your eyes. Now take off your pants. Now imagine it's game four of the ALDS, we're at Yankee stadium, and the Twins are down 2 games to 1, but all games have been closely played. They need someone to shut down the Yankees on the road. Who is the last pitcher you'd want out there? Correct, it's Nick Blackburn. I would have also accepted Kevin Slowey, Anthony Swarzak, or Jeff Manship. Scott Baker ranks slightly ahead of them because he's more likely to be absolutely lights out, no matter who he's facing. Of course, we could also see the longest home run in the history of Yankee baseball (and Mantle allegedly hit a 600 footer). Yes, longer than Mantles. Imagine a 3-0 count on A-Rod. Now take off your pants again. Now imagine the bases are loaded and the winning run is on third, so Baker has to throw a strike. How far could A-Rod hit that ball? 700 ft? 800?
- Anybody else watching The Event? I don't think it's terrible just yet, but I do think it's trying awfully hard to be both Lost and 24, even though I never ever watched 24 because it takes more than gun fights and explosions to entertain me. Anyway, it seems ok and any time D.B. Sweeney is involved you know I'm a fan, but this show could take a wrong turn in an awful hurry. I mean, this "plot" is like tightrope thin. Kind of like how the Dark Tower series by Stephen King could be brilliant on TV in the right hands, but would be a laughable train wreck if handled incorrectly. Or like the Game of Thrones series coming up on HBO. Real delicate stuff here. Actually, I'm not really sure why I made that comparison, except that those are two of my favorite book series and one is coming to TV and the other might be soon. Really, so far The Event is weird and doesn't make much sense and I only watched about half of episode two, but it's got this chick in a bikini so I'll keep watching:
- Speaking of Episode 2, Mrs. W bought WonderbabyTM a Star Wars coloring book today, which she loved, and she likes to watch me play Lego Star Wars, so we watched a half hour of Episode I today (went with that one because it's most kid friendly) and she thought it rocked and didn't want to turn it off. I'm looking to have her fully nerdifyed by age 4.
- So who's excited for the Ryder Cup? I am. I think the Euro team is far better than the Americans, but we have a few units down on the USA just because, like Billy Mitchell, I'm proud to represent my country, even when I'm not really representing anything and really am more just betting on people who are representing my country. Like Lex Luger. Anyway, Sergio sucking too bad all year to not make the team is a huge break for the Americanos, because that dude is a machine at this stuff (career 14-3-3 record). Nobody on the American team is a good Ryder Cup player, and Mickelson and Furyk are two of the worst, and unfortunately Jeff Overton made the team and then Rickie Fowler got picked for some reason, so really there is no reason to be on the USA except blind faith in good ole apple pie and blue jeans. And a good underdog payout.
- The Rockies are losing again tonight, and most people don't really care, but we have the Rockies at OVER 85.5 wins for the year, and currently they are at 83-73 which means they need to go 3-3 to win the bet, which is starting to look less and less likely due to this incredible un-Rocky-like skid they are in which, if they lose again tonight, will have them at 1-8 in their last 9 games. Which means that nine games ago they were 82-65 and needed to go just 4-11 to win it for us. Thanks assholes. I blame Helton.
- Also the Mets just need to lose two more games. Pray for us.
- I'm sure there's more, but the baby is waking up and by the time I get done feeding and taking care of him, whatever mojo is driving this post will be long gone. So I'll just leave you with this: Dez Bryant is going to destroy the NFL, Randy Moss style. If not this year, then next.
Make your time.
Sunday, September 26, 2010
Gopher happenings
Lots going on in the nation of the Gopher this weekend. First, Gopher football lost to Northern Illinois, what else is there to say? Take everything that was said after the loss to South Dakota, multiply by 10, and repeat. I was at this game and you could feel the apathy from the crowd the whole way, and the amount of people pouring out of the stadium at halftime was staggering. Not that it's ever been a hot ticket with everything else there is in town, but Gopher football is a joke both in terms of product and fan interest, which is pretty sad considering the beautiful stadium that's just a year old. Pretty amazing accomplishment by Brewster, actually, and the only thing he's accomplished.
It's almost unfortunate the way recruiting works, because that's really the only reason for him to still have a job right now, although he's been doing such a bang up job that having his signees leave might actually improve the team. I mean, he's taken a thoroughly average BCS program in every way and taken it to the bottom. Certainly they are the worst team in the Big Ten, and might very well be the worst BCS football team in the country, a possibility Marcus Fuller wrote about. And Brewster has done this all with a shiny new stadium. Pretty amazing. Not even Dan Monson could have pulled this off.
And speaking of Monson, that would be a good segue into some good news: Tubby and Gopher hoops locked up Joe Coleman of Hopkins for the 2011 season on Friday. I already wrote quite a bit about Coleman here and here, so I won't go over it all again, but needless to say I'm pretty happy about this. Getting the best player in Minnesota each year should be a priority, assuming he's a Big Ten caliber player, and Coleman is far beyond that. He's ranked as #116 overall and the #34 shooting guard by Rivals, #80 and #26 by ESPN, and the #29 small forward by Scout, so it's safe to say he should be a pretty high quality edition.
In other recruiting news, there were a couple interesting developments in other players the Gophers are after. First, Andre Hollins visited campus this weekend, and got to see the football team embarrass itself, but by all accounts enjoyed his visit. He says all five schools on his final list (Minnesota, Harvard, Stanford, Auburn, and Ole Miss) are still tied at the top, but let's hope some of the local talent did their best to swing him in our favor. Also, Josh Oglesby, who had previously whittled his list down to Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, and Arizona State, has dropped the Illini from consideration so the Gophers are now in the final 3. Both Hollins and Oglesby are combo guards who are pretty much consensus top 150 players so either (or both) would be a quality get.
Lastly, a few recruiting notes around the state (and if you are on Twitter and aren't following Ryan James, you really need to). First, Shelby Moats, who the Gophers were interested in but who I said seemed more suited to a nerd school, once again proved how smart I am by signing on with Vanderbilt. He's perfect for that system and they love their academics, so he can go ahead and join the Tri-Lams without being persecuted. And finally, Chaska's Ross Travis, a player the Gopher never showed a ton of interest in even though there was a segment of the fan base who thought they should, has signed with Penn State. This way we will be able to watch and judge if and to what degree Tubby made a mistake on this kid twice a year. Let's hope his eye for talent is still 20/20.
It's almost unfortunate the way recruiting works, because that's really the only reason for him to still have a job right now, although he's been doing such a bang up job that having his signees leave might actually improve the team. I mean, he's taken a thoroughly average BCS program in every way and taken it to the bottom. Certainly they are the worst team in the Big Ten, and might very well be the worst BCS football team in the country, a possibility Marcus Fuller wrote about. And Brewster has done this all with a shiny new stadium. Pretty amazing. Not even Dan Monson could have pulled this off.
And speaking of Monson, that would be a good segue into some good news: Tubby and Gopher hoops locked up Joe Coleman of Hopkins for the 2011 season on Friday. I already wrote quite a bit about Coleman here and here, so I won't go over it all again, but needless to say I'm pretty happy about this. Getting the best player in Minnesota each year should be a priority, assuming he's a Big Ten caliber player, and Coleman is far beyond that. He's ranked as #116 overall and the #34 shooting guard by Rivals, #80 and #26 by ESPN, and the #29 small forward by Scout, so it's safe to say he should be a pretty high quality edition.
In other recruiting news, there were a couple interesting developments in other players the Gophers are after. First, Andre Hollins visited campus this weekend, and got to see the football team embarrass itself, but by all accounts enjoyed his visit. He says all five schools on his final list (Minnesota, Harvard, Stanford, Auburn, and Ole Miss) are still tied at the top, but let's hope some of the local talent did their best to swing him in our favor. Also, Josh Oglesby, who had previously whittled his list down to Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, and Arizona State, has dropped the Illini from consideration so the Gophers are now in the final 3. Both Hollins and Oglesby are combo guards who are pretty much consensus top 150 players so either (or both) would be a quality get.
Lastly, a few recruiting notes around the state (and if you are on Twitter and aren't following Ryan James, you really need to). First, Shelby Moats, who the Gophers were interested in but who I said seemed more suited to a nerd school, once again proved how smart I am by signing on with Vanderbilt. He's perfect for that system and they love their academics, so he can go ahead and join the Tri-Lams without being persecuted. And finally, Chaska's Ross Travis, a player the Gopher never showed a ton of interest in even though there was a segment of the fan base who thought they should, has signed with Penn State. This way we will be able to watch and judge if and to what degree Tubby made a mistake on this kid twice a year. Let's hope his eye for talent is still 20/20.
Thursday, September 23, 2010
Gopher Recruiting Update
When it comes to Gopher basketball recruiting for next season there are really only four names you need to care about: Joe Coleman, Naadir Tharpe, Andre Hollins, and Josh Oglesby. That's it. Everybody else of consequence has signed with Virginia (Malcolm Brogdon and Paul Jesperson) or seems like more of a fallback and will probably go somewhere like Northwestern or Stanford or some other smart person school with his big brain and slow white body (Shelby Moats - and don't get me wrong, I like what I've read and think he could be successful here, but my instincts tell me he's going to a smarty pants school). Here is who is relevant:
SG Joe Coleman - Hopkins, MN - #34 SG and #116 overall by Rivals. He's rated even higher by ESPN, and there's no doubt he should be the #1 priority for Tubby and crew. Not because he plays the biggest position of need for 2011-2012, which is pretty clearly point guard, but because he's a highly rated player from Minnesota. Tubby did a great job getting Rodney Williams and Royce White, even though we're still kind of waiting for Rodney to arrive and obviously Royce never really did. Or, more accurately, he arrived wielding a sledgehammer, destroying everything around him before fleeing to Ames. But it's still important to keep Minnesota kids who are highly rated in state because it sends a message to future players.
Guys like Tyus Jones, class of 2014 PG already on everybody's radar, see top instate talent, guys they've played against and/or played with in camps and on all-star teams, heading to play for the Gophers and it creates a culture where that just becomes what you do. Obviously you can't solely recruit instate players, this isn't hockey in the 90s, but it can become almost automatic that a top flight instate player stays home, but that has to be built up, and Tubby has to continue that momentum and that means getting Coleman. The fact that his brother, Dan, played here cements it ever further that Coleman is the #1 most important player in this class.
All accounts I've read say he is going to be deciding soon, possibly as early as today, and he's basically narrowed it down to Santa Clara and the Gophers after eliminating Iowa State earlier this week following their signing of SG Tyus McGee. With the Broncos the Gophers only real competition it almost seems like a given, but don't underestimate the beautiful weather and the pretty girls in California. And don't forget Ray Cowels, formerly of Hopkins, is still out there to help sell Coleman on the West Coast. I know I was worried that he'd talk Rodney into it, and obviously that didn't happen, but it's still something to be concerned about.
PG Naadir Tharpe - Wolfeboro, NH - #20 PG and #91 overall by Rivals. Tharpe is an extremely important get as well, because after this coming season Al Nolen graduates (or loses eligibility at least) and that leaves the team with no real point guard unless you want to count Bryant Allen or Maverick Ahanmisi, and I really don't. There's really no other point guard on the radar either, although there is a combo guard I'll talk about in a minute, but I'd rather go to battle with a true point than a combo (plus we already have one of those in Devoe), and by all accounts Tharpe is a true point guard.
ESPN speaks glowingly of his skills in their scouting report, citing his "tight handle", "excellent court vision", and ability to run the offense and break and apply ball pressure. The Gophers are said to be at the top of his list following his visit September 17th, when he tweeted he had an excellent steak at Seven with Tubby, which should be good news but makes me nervous. He had only scheduled two visits, with the Gophers and with Rutgers, but ended up canceling the Rutgers visit after they signed a different point. With Minnesota the only team on the radar I was hopeful he would sign quickly after coming to Minneapolis, but despite telling everyone he had an excellent visit and that he connected with Tubby and really enjoyed himself, that didn't happen.
Tharpe has come out and said he won't make a decision until Spring, which gives more teams a chance to come sniffing around, and Kansas has now expressed interest after PG Josiah Turner signed with Arizona. Did he not make the Gophers his choice simply because he's a young kid who is enjoying the process and all the attention, or was there something he didn't like when he was here? Either way, you're going to have to hold your breath for a while and hope no other program worms its way into his heart. Gophers lead on him, for now.
SG Josh Oglesby - Cedar Rapids, IA - #36 SG and #119 overall on Rivals. Oglesby is an interesting one, because depending on the source he's either a pure shooter or a combo guard, and ESPN doesn't have him evaluated at all. It's also hard to get a read on where he's leaning, because he has apparently loved every school visit he's made (including his visit to Minnesota last weekend), and he hasn't really given anybody a pecking order, outside of his top four: Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, and Arizona State - not in any particular order.
He's from the great Corn state, so I'm sure there is part of him that would love to become a Hawkeye and return that school to glory, but have you seen the mess that program is right now? It seems like a good player with other viable options might shy away, so that's the hope here. Ryan James of GopherIllustrated.com describes him as "the unselfish marksman" (sounds like a combo guard to me) and he's been called the best shooter in Iowa, which you know has a bunch of kids like Jimmy Chitwood, so that's not exactly faint praise. He will visit Illinois this weekend and then make his way down the Arizona State the following one, so we should know more by early October. I do know that the more I read about him, the more I like him. Seems very Blake Hoffarber-y.
SG Andre Hollins - Memphis, TN - #40 SG and #126 overall by Rivals. Andre is no relation to incoming Gopher freshman Austin Hollins, but he sounds pretty similar: a smart player with a good jump shot who can also put it on the floor and drive and plays good defense. Sign me up. He's also another nerd, like Moats, who is takes his academics very seriously, which is why he includes Harvard and Stanford in his top 5. Of course, he also has Ole Miss, so who knows how serious he is about it.
The Gophers are also in his top 5, and he will be making his official visit to the campus this weekend, having previously visited Auburn and Harvard and come away impressed. He still has future visits to Stanford and Ole Miss coming up and, similar to Oglesby, he has committed to making all of his official visits before making his decision. His final trip is to Stanford on October 15th, so we won't know more until then.
Also like Oglesby, Hollins is a combo guard but more of a two, so if the Gophers were to miss out on Tharpe and get Hollins (or Oglesby) they would at least have someone capable of running the point along with Devoe and those other two, even if it isn't his #1 skill set position. It sounds like Andre, his dad, and his coach are all very impressed with Tubby Smith, enough so to get the Gophers in his top five at a late date, and hopefully that will be enough to help pull him to the Gophers.
Now there are a few other guys who could be in play, but these four are pretty clearly the main targets and the main priorities, and they should be. If all four end up whiffs it could be another mediocre recruiting class for Tubby, and losing Coleman would especially hurt. So let's not let that happen. Agreed? Agreed.
SG Joe Coleman - Hopkins, MN - #34 SG and #116 overall by Rivals. He's rated even higher by ESPN, and there's no doubt he should be the #1 priority for Tubby and crew. Not because he plays the biggest position of need for 2011-2012, which is pretty clearly point guard, but because he's a highly rated player from Minnesota. Tubby did a great job getting Rodney Williams and Royce White, even though we're still kind of waiting for Rodney to arrive and obviously Royce never really did. Or, more accurately, he arrived wielding a sledgehammer, destroying everything around him before fleeing to Ames. But it's still important to keep Minnesota kids who are highly rated in state because it sends a message to future players.
Guys like Tyus Jones, class of 2014 PG already on everybody's radar, see top instate talent, guys they've played against and/or played with in camps and on all-star teams, heading to play for the Gophers and it creates a culture where that just becomes what you do. Obviously you can't solely recruit instate players, this isn't hockey in the 90s, but it can become almost automatic that a top flight instate player stays home, but that has to be built up, and Tubby has to continue that momentum and that means getting Coleman. The fact that his brother, Dan, played here cements it ever further that Coleman is the #1 most important player in this class.
All accounts I've read say he is going to be deciding soon, possibly as early as today, and he's basically narrowed it down to Santa Clara and the Gophers after eliminating Iowa State earlier this week following their signing of SG Tyus McGee. With the Broncos the Gophers only real competition it almost seems like a given, but don't underestimate the beautiful weather and the pretty girls in California. And don't forget Ray Cowels, formerly of Hopkins, is still out there to help sell Coleman on the West Coast. I know I was worried that he'd talk Rodney into it, and obviously that didn't happen, but it's still something to be concerned about.
PG Naadir Tharpe - Wolfeboro, NH - #20 PG and #91 overall by Rivals. Tharpe is an extremely important get as well, because after this coming season Al Nolen graduates (or loses eligibility at least) and that leaves the team with no real point guard unless you want to count Bryant Allen or Maverick Ahanmisi, and I really don't. There's really no other point guard on the radar either, although there is a combo guard I'll talk about in a minute, but I'd rather go to battle with a true point than a combo (plus we already have one of those in Devoe), and by all accounts Tharpe is a true point guard.
ESPN speaks glowingly of his skills in their scouting report, citing his "tight handle", "excellent court vision", and ability to run the offense and break and apply ball pressure. The Gophers are said to be at the top of his list following his visit September 17th, when he tweeted he had an excellent steak at Seven with Tubby, which should be good news but makes me nervous. He had only scheduled two visits, with the Gophers and with Rutgers, but ended up canceling the Rutgers visit after they signed a different point. With Minnesota the only team on the radar I was hopeful he would sign quickly after coming to Minneapolis, but despite telling everyone he had an excellent visit and that he connected with Tubby and really enjoyed himself, that didn't happen.
Tharpe has come out and said he won't make a decision until Spring, which gives more teams a chance to come sniffing around, and Kansas has now expressed interest after PG Josiah Turner signed with Arizona. Did he not make the Gophers his choice simply because he's a young kid who is enjoying the process and all the attention, or was there something he didn't like when he was here? Either way, you're going to have to hold your breath for a while and hope no other program worms its way into his heart. Gophers lead on him, for now.
SG Josh Oglesby - Cedar Rapids, IA - #36 SG and #119 overall on Rivals. Oglesby is an interesting one, because depending on the source he's either a pure shooter or a combo guard, and ESPN doesn't have him evaluated at all. It's also hard to get a read on where he's leaning, because he has apparently loved every school visit he's made (including his visit to Minnesota last weekend), and he hasn't really given anybody a pecking order, outside of his top four: Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, and Arizona State - not in any particular order.
He's from the great Corn state, so I'm sure there is part of him that would love to become a Hawkeye and return that school to glory, but have you seen the mess that program is right now? It seems like a good player with other viable options might shy away, so that's the hope here. Ryan James of GopherIllustrated.com describes him as "the unselfish marksman" (sounds like a combo guard to me) and he's been called the best shooter in Iowa, which you know has a bunch of kids like Jimmy Chitwood, so that's not exactly faint praise. He will visit Illinois this weekend and then make his way down the Arizona State the following one, so we should know more by early October. I do know that the more I read about him, the more I like him. Seems very Blake Hoffarber-y.
SG Andre Hollins - Memphis, TN - #40 SG and #126 overall by Rivals. Andre is no relation to incoming Gopher freshman Austin Hollins, but he sounds pretty similar: a smart player with a good jump shot who can also put it on the floor and drive and plays good defense. Sign me up. He's also another nerd, like Moats, who is takes his academics very seriously, which is why he includes Harvard and Stanford in his top 5. Of course, he also has Ole Miss, so who knows how serious he is about it.
The Gophers are also in his top 5, and he will be making his official visit to the campus this weekend, having previously visited Auburn and Harvard and come away impressed. He still has future visits to Stanford and Ole Miss coming up and, similar to Oglesby, he has committed to making all of his official visits before making his decision. His final trip is to Stanford on October 15th, so we won't know more until then.
Also like Oglesby, Hollins is a combo guard but more of a two, so if the Gophers were to miss out on Tharpe and get Hollins (or Oglesby) they would at least have someone capable of running the point along with Devoe and those other two, even if it isn't his #1 skill set position. It sounds like Andre, his dad, and his coach are all very impressed with Tubby Smith, enough so to get the Gophers in his top five at a late date, and hopefully that will be enough to help pull him to the Gophers.
Now there are a few other guys who could be in play, but these four are pretty clearly the main targets and the main priorities, and they should be. If all four end up whiffs it could be another mediocre recruiting class for Tubby, and losing Coleman would especially hurt. So let's not let that happen. Agreed? Agreed.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
