I know you're probably sick of reading about it by now, but this is a really fascinating Sweet 16 this year. You have a little bit of everything. You've got eleven different conferences represented. You've got your small conference upstarts (Northern Iowa, Cornell, St. Mary's), your big conference upstarts (Kansas State, Baylor), your small conference dynasties (Xavier, Butler), your traditional powers (Kentucky, Duke, Syracuse), your underachieving squads starting to put it together (Tennessee, Washington), team's dealing with injuries old (Purdue) and new (Michigan State, West Virginia), and the best team god ever assembled (Ohio State).
You've got the two best players this year (John Wall, Evan Turner), media darlings (Omar Samhan), precious little white boys with a hometown angle (Ryan Wittman), transfers who flourished (Denis Clemente, Ekpe Udoh, Jordan Crawford), cheaters (John Calipari, Bob Huggins), slime balls (Coach K, Calipari), and spazzes (Izzo, Frank Martin). You've got lightning quick guards (Jake Pullen, Isaiah Thomas, Terrell Holloway), do-it-all wings (Durrell Summers, David Lighty, Wes Johnson, Devin Ebanks), dead-eye shooters (Farokhmanesh, Jon Scheyer, Scotty Hopson), and monster big men (JaJuan Johnson, Matt Howard, DeMarcus Cousins).
Seriously, I'm really fired up for these next four days. It should be awesome. Here are my picks, gambling-wise, ranked from least amount of units vs. most amount of units wagered.
WEST VIRGINIA -4 vs. WASHINGTON: I'm more than a bit surprised that I'm not more confident in the Mountaineers, but I think the injury to Truck Bryant is going to play a bigger role than you'd think in this particular match up. WVU has zero answer for Isaiah Thomas, and he can completely control the tempo of a game, as New Mexico found out. Since WVU likes to play a slower-paced game, that could become an issue. Still, in the end, Washington doesn't have the athletes to play with WVU beyond Thomas and Quincy Pondexter, so they'll probably run out of gas in the end - assuming Huggy Bear doesn't orchestrate another one of his teams' patented choke jobs. THE PICK: West Virginia -4, 1 Unit
SYRACUSE -7 vs. BUTLER: Another tough game to read. One of the ways Butler beats more athletic, more talented teams is by being so fundamentally sound, but this year's Syracuse team won as many games as they did by being equally fundamentally sound. Still, I doubted Butler this year, and that waxing they put on a very good UTEP team tells me I might have underestimated them. I expect this to be a pretty hard fought, low-scoring affair between two good teams, and in that kind of situation you go with the points. THE PICK: Butler +7, 1 Unit (Bonus Pick: UNDER 138.5, 1 Unit)
DUKE -8 vs. PURDUE: Not really sure how to call this one. Duke is the better team, and Purdue can't win on emotion forever, but there are some reasons to believe in Purdue here. With or without Hummel, they are a very tough defensive squad. Couple that with a Duke team that relies monster-heavily on the three-pointer for the offense, and one cold night, whether because Duke can't hit or because of tough Purdue defense and the door is suddenly open for an upset. With the Johnson and Moore it's possible, since they're tough match ups for Duke, and if Kramer can get under Scheyer's skin it could be a long night. Something tells me this is either going to be a blow out or a Purdue upset, so the spread does me no good. THE PICK: Purdue to Win @ +340, 1 Unit.
KANSAS STATE -5 vs. XAVIER: If you've read this blog leading up to the tournament, you know I'm a big fan of Xavier this year, and not a believer in Kansas State, so this pick is pretty easy. Nothing has really changed through two rounds, since X has looked good in their two wins while K-State has been less than overwhelming. Still, any team with two good guards is a danger at this point, so I can't go to heavy. THE PICK: Xavier +5, 3 Units (Bonus Pick: OVER 152, 1 Unit)
OHIO STATE -4.5 vs. TENNESSEE: The Vols are the kind of team who have been up-and-down all year, and now that they're in the Sweet 16 they probably have you thinking they have it all together now. Well you're wrong. They barely beat a San Diego State team that barely bothered to show up, and then lucked into a second round game against the least deserving team in the field in Ohio, and couldn't really get it going until the second half against them. No my friends, the Vols are doing this with smoke and mirrors and they are about to be exposed. If you really feel the need to gamble on Tennessee, take the money line, because they have just as good a chance at winning as they do at covering 4.5. THE PICK: Ohio State -4.5, 3 Units (Bonus Pick: OVER 134, 2 Units)
KENTUCKY -9 vs. CORNELL: I feel a bit weird here, because part of me says that Cornell just got lucky, matching up against two slow-it down, grind it out, non-super-athletic, non-super-quick teams, but another part of me says that this is the kind of team that could take the youngsters on Kentucky completely out of their game. And it's not like Trevon Hughes or Jordan Taylor are slow. Not to mention, and I hate referencing something that happened in January and was a loss, but they did hang with Kansas right up until the end and that's a pretty athletic team. I think this is going to be a fascinating game. In the end, Kansas probably wins, but those are a lot of points, and Cornell seems to be all business right now. They don't think they're done yet. THE PICK: Cornell +9, 3 Units
BAYLOR -4 vs. ST MARY'S: I'm still not 100% convinced Baylor is all that terrific, but I think more than anything the Gaels are riding easy matchups. Well, by beating overrated teams, at least. Richmond had me convinced, but they didn't even come close to coming close to showing up, and it was clear to everyone, pre-bracket even, that there was no way in hell Villanova was a legit 2-seed. Maybe more than anything else, and I'm going to bring this up again later, but did it sort of feel like St. Mary's won their Super Bowl already? Not to mention that Baylor is the same team as St. Mary's, but only if St. Mary's got an upgrade. Good interior player - but Udoh is better than Samhan - surrounded by good perimeter players - but Baylor's guards are head and shoulders better than St. Mary's guards. It's hard to see how St. Mary's keeps this much of a game, Baylor should win by ten. Oh, and the game is in Houston, so it's pretty much a home game. THE PICK: Baylor -4, 5 Units (Bonus Pick: OVER 143, 1 Unit)
MICHIGAN STATE -1.5 vs. NORTHERN IOWA: Ok, tell me this line isn't fishy and media driven. First, Kalin Lucas is hurt, and it's being played up as a big story. Second, UNI just knocked off the major favorite in the tournament, and everyone knows it and can't stop talking about it. These two facts alone have probably swung this line by about two points. And there's more. UNI's coach just agreed to a 10-year deal a couple of days ago, while the tournament is still going on. Farokhmanesh is the darling of the tournament - hell, the whole team is the darling of the tournament. It just feels like they're good and done and fat and happy and basking in the glow right now. Meanwhile, Tom Izzo, notorious advancer in NCAA tournaments, has the team locked down in the gym, going over the game plan without Lucas over and over and over, and making sure his team knows that they haven't accomplished jack shit just yet. Not to mention Bill Self has clearly established himself as the kind of guy who makes chocking out of the tournament into a routine, while Izzo is the complete opposite, and this feels like the line should be more like 7. THE PICK: Michigan State -1.5, 8 Units
I know my bracket picks haven't been doing that well (although I still have all my final four teams left), but the gambling has been successful thus far, so I highly recommend that you follow these picks blindly.
Wednesday, March 24, 2010
Tuesday, March 23, 2010
Let's Talk Closers
I wasn't planning on writing anything since I'm still so damn tired from that damn Chicago trip, but I happened to be in the car and flipped on the radio and listened to a little Twins Spring Training game. Even though we're in the heart of the NCAA Tournament, and the two rounds where the best basketball is usually played, it still made my heart skip a beat for summer and some hardball. Of course, I also had to hear Gordy and Gladden talk about how Jesse Crain would be a great closer if he could just throw strike one, and I don't exactly miss that, but you take the good with the bad.
And even though I know the Twins aren't going to make a move, and even though I know they are going try to go with a closer-by-committee, and even though I know it's not going to work and they're going to wait too long to try and fix it, I'm going to look at the outside possibilities anyway. Mainly to educate myself on how many options are out there that are going to be ignored.
So here are 10 possible closers we might find wearing a Twins' jersey and working as a closer at some point this year, in the order I found information on them:
1. John Smoltz. I bring him up because a reader mentioned him in the comments, but the only thing I find attractive about him is that he's a free agent and wouldn't cost anything outside of the contract to acquire. At 43 with rapidly dropping velocity and a rapidly rising flyball rate, it's tough to figure out what would be attractive here. He just took a job with TBS, but his contract has provisions in it where he can leave to play ball if he gets a contract offer. How badly would that move reek of desperation? And how much does it sound like something that is going to happen around July?
2. Kerry Wood. In the last year of his contract (unless he finishes 55 games this year), Wood is a natural to come up in every closer-related trade rumor. Of course, Wood is hurt again, this time with a strained back muscle, and with $10.5 million coming his way this year there's no way the Twins would make a move for him now, and nor should they. If he comes back strong and nobody has stepped up by mid-summer, I can see this one happening, division foe or not.
3. Mike MacDougal. I'm not sure about this one, especially because he just got released by the freaking Marlins, but MacDougal did have 20 saves last season for the Nationals and has notched 20+ in two other seasons in his career. He throws hard and gets a lot of groundballs, so he's an intriguing possibility, but he walks as many as he strikes out these days. I'd be much more interested in him if he had become available prior to Spring Training, but if he's willing to sign for cheap I'd endorse this move.
4. Heath Bell. I've mentioned him here before, and he's probably the best possible option, but the Padres are apparently asking for Glen Perkins and two "good" prospects. I've said it before, if by "good" they mean guys like Ben Revere, they can screw off, but if they mean guys more like Trevor Plouffe, I'd consider myself intrigued. This team is in position to win this year, and a move like this takes that up another notch, not to mention showing a nice shift in team philosophy.
5. Derrick Turnbow. Remember this guy? He notched 39 saves for the Brewers in 2005 with a sub-2.00 ERA and looked poised to be a star, but fell off a cliff since then. In the next three seasons he's posted a total ERA north of six and has started walking nearly as many batters as he strikes out, and hasn't pitched in the majors since 2008. He was just released by the Marlins, who apparently stockpiled crappy relievers this Spring, and it actually sounds like he's retiring due to a shoulder injury, but I'm including him here mostly because I already typed all that stuff above before I read the part about the injury.
6. Jason Frasor. The other hot name behind Bell, and I'm not entirely certain why he's such a hot commodity. He saved just 11 out of 14 opportunities, and last year was the first time he posted an ERA under 4 in the last four seasons and the first time he ever put up a WHIP under 1.2. He's cheaper than Bell, would cost less in prospects, so I see the interest, but I'm not sure he's necessarily any better than Rauch, Neshek, or any of the other clowns the Twins have. That said, if they can get him in a straight swap for Glen Perkins I would enthusiastically endorse it.
7. Matt Capps. I know the Twins had their shot to sign him this off-season if they really wanted him, and they wisely laid off, but time's have changed with Nathan's elbow issues. I can't imagine the Nationals really need a $4.5 million closer this year when they're going to struggle to win 65-games, and with just a one-year deal it's hard to imagine them not looking to deal him around mid-season. I fear he's really more of a middle reliever type who's been forced into a closer role, and he regressed big-time last year, so I can't imagine the Twins making this move unless he either provs himself to be back to being good or they get really desperate.
8. Francisco Cordero. He's a pretty big long shot, considering he will make $12 million each of the next two years, but I'm starting to have to stretch to get to 10 and what do the Reds need with a $12 million closer? Actually they have a pretty good young roster, but if it seems they aren't quite ready I can see the Reds moving guys like Cordero, Aaron Harang, and Bronson Arroyo - they could always try to convert Jose Arredondo into a closer. I doubt the Twins get involved here, but it's always possible, particularly if anything further goes wrong with Nathan.
9. Octavio Dotel. He seems to be about 100 years old, but he keeps plugging along, putting up decent numbers. He's now on the Pirates, making $3.5 million this year, and they have a club option for next year for $4.5 (although the option becomes team/player mutual if he's traded). The Pirates have started to show that their front office gets it, and there's really no need for them to bother keeping him - not to mention having that trade clause in there shows they've had that in mind since they signed him. Actually, other than Bell, Frasor, or (god help me) Smotlz, he's probably the most likely to end up a Twin.
10. Eddie Guardado. He's almost certainly going to retire, and there is really no point in bothering to bring him in since him getting people out is basically little more than a rumor at this point, but tell me this, as a Twins' fan, that this doesn't sound like something they'd do.
Of course, I could be wrong about all this too. ESPN's Eric Karabell believes Jon Rauch could be the next closing star - or at least the next David Aardsma, and really if you look at the ten guys I listed above it's mostly garbage.
I don't know. I'd still feel a lot better if they got Bell, or are at least prepared to pull the trigger on Wood if he shows he's recovered. All I really know is that this sucks, because the Twins did basically everything I wanted them to do, and now we have to worry about this. Arg. At the very least, tell me they're going to pick somebody, hopefully Rauch, and just go with him. I have less than zero interest in dealing with watching some kind of closer-by-committee garbage all year. I prefer to focus my rage on one player at a time.
Sweet 16 predictions coming Wednesday night, so if you are still waiting on my picks to make your wagers, just sit tight.
And even though I know the Twins aren't going to make a move, and even though I know they are going try to go with a closer-by-committee, and even though I know it's not going to work and they're going to wait too long to try and fix it, I'm going to look at the outside possibilities anyway. Mainly to educate myself on how many options are out there that are going to be ignored.
So here are 10 possible closers we might find wearing a Twins' jersey and working as a closer at some point this year, in the order I found information on them:
1. John Smoltz. I bring him up because a reader mentioned him in the comments, but the only thing I find attractive about him is that he's a free agent and wouldn't cost anything outside of the contract to acquire. At 43 with rapidly dropping velocity and a rapidly rising flyball rate, it's tough to figure out what would be attractive here. He just took a job with TBS, but his contract has provisions in it where he can leave to play ball if he gets a contract offer. How badly would that move reek of desperation? And how much does it sound like something that is going to happen around July?
2. Kerry Wood. In the last year of his contract (unless he finishes 55 games this year), Wood is a natural to come up in every closer-related trade rumor. Of course, Wood is hurt again, this time with a strained back muscle, and with $10.5 million coming his way this year there's no way the Twins would make a move for him now, and nor should they. If he comes back strong and nobody has stepped up by mid-summer, I can see this one happening, division foe or not.
3. Mike MacDougal. I'm not sure about this one, especially because he just got released by the freaking Marlins, but MacDougal did have 20 saves last season for the Nationals and has notched 20+ in two other seasons in his career. He throws hard and gets a lot of groundballs, so he's an intriguing possibility, but he walks as many as he strikes out these days. I'd be much more interested in him if he had become available prior to Spring Training, but if he's willing to sign for cheap I'd endorse this move.
4. Heath Bell. I've mentioned him here before, and he's probably the best possible option, but the Padres are apparently asking for Glen Perkins and two "good" prospects. I've said it before, if by "good" they mean guys like Ben Revere, they can screw off, but if they mean guys more like Trevor Plouffe, I'd consider myself intrigued. This team is in position to win this year, and a move like this takes that up another notch, not to mention showing a nice shift in team philosophy.
5. Derrick Turnbow. Remember this guy? He notched 39 saves for the Brewers in 2005 with a sub-2.00 ERA and looked poised to be a star, but fell off a cliff since then. In the next three seasons he's posted a total ERA north of six and has started walking nearly as many batters as he strikes out, and hasn't pitched in the majors since 2008. He was just released by the Marlins, who apparently stockpiled crappy relievers this Spring, and it actually sounds like he's retiring due to a shoulder injury, but I'm including him here mostly because I already typed all that stuff above before I read the part about the injury.
6. Jason Frasor. The other hot name behind Bell, and I'm not entirely certain why he's such a hot commodity. He saved just 11 out of 14 opportunities, and last year was the first time he posted an ERA under 4 in the last four seasons and the first time he ever put up a WHIP under 1.2. He's cheaper than Bell, would cost less in prospects, so I see the interest, but I'm not sure he's necessarily any better than Rauch, Neshek, or any of the other clowns the Twins have. That said, if they can get him in a straight swap for Glen Perkins I would enthusiastically endorse it.
7. Matt Capps. I know the Twins had their shot to sign him this off-season if they really wanted him, and they wisely laid off, but time's have changed with Nathan's elbow issues. I can't imagine the Nationals really need a $4.5 million closer this year when they're going to struggle to win 65-games, and with just a one-year deal it's hard to imagine them not looking to deal him around mid-season. I fear he's really more of a middle reliever type who's been forced into a closer role, and he regressed big-time last year, so I can't imagine the Twins making this move unless he either provs himself to be back to being good or they get really desperate.
8. Francisco Cordero. He's a pretty big long shot, considering he will make $12 million each of the next two years, but I'm starting to have to stretch to get to 10 and what do the Reds need with a $12 million closer? Actually they have a pretty good young roster, but if it seems they aren't quite ready I can see the Reds moving guys like Cordero, Aaron Harang, and Bronson Arroyo - they could always try to convert Jose Arredondo into a closer. I doubt the Twins get involved here, but it's always possible, particularly if anything further goes wrong with Nathan.
9. Octavio Dotel. He seems to be about 100 years old, but he keeps plugging along, putting up decent numbers. He's now on the Pirates, making $3.5 million this year, and they have a club option for next year for $4.5 (although the option becomes team/player mutual if he's traded). The Pirates have started to show that their front office gets it, and there's really no need for them to bother keeping him - not to mention having that trade clause in there shows they've had that in mind since they signed him. Actually, other than Bell, Frasor, or (god help me) Smotlz, he's probably the most likely to end up a Twin.
10. Eddie Guardado. He's almost certainly going to retire, and there is really no point in bothering to bring him in since him getting people out is basically little more than a rumor at this point, but tell me this, as a Twins' fan, that this doesn't sound like something they'd do.
Of course, I could be wrong about all this too. ESPN's Eric Karabell believes Jon Rauch could be the next closing star - or at least the next David Aardsma, and really if you look at the ten guys I listed above it's mostly garbage.
I don't know. I'd still feel a lot better if they got Bell, or are at least prepared to pull the trigger on Wood if he shows he's recovered. All I really know is that this sucks, because the Twins did basically everything I wanted them to do, and now we have to worry about this. Arg. At the very least, tell me they're going to pick somebody, hopefully Rauch, and just go with him. I have less than zero interest in dealing with watching some kind of closer-by-committee garbage all year. I prefer to focus my rage on one player at a time.
Sweet 16 predictions coming Wednesday night, so if you are still waiting on my picks to make your wagers, just sit tight.
Monday, March 22, 2010
Week in Review - 3/21/2010
Well, we made it back from Chicago and everyone is still alive. Sorry for the lateness of this post, but believe me after pulling consecutive days with 12+ hours logged at the bar, the last thing I could manage when I got back on Sunday was writing some stupid crap for this stupid blog. But now that I'm back, even though I still feel like crap, I figure I should at least put up some kind of half-assed Week in Review (well, more half-assed than usual, I mean.)
Quickly, two things that stood out from the Chicago weekend:
1) A Colombian man openly weeping in the middle of the Dayton bar while listening to latin music on his pink Ipod.
2) Loud, obnoxious Kansas fan yelling "yes" when Kansas hit that meaningless three with 0.4 left in the game. He either forgot the actual score or has no idea how basketball works, and I'm not sure which way is funnier but I know he had all of us rolling in the back room after we heard him.
Anyway, on to the usual garbage:
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Xavier. It's hard to blame the Gophers too much for the loss on Friday, particularly when the Musketeers were the far better team, and they continued to show that by beating Pitt on Sunday to advance to the Sweet 16 for the third consecutive season - one of just two teams (Michigan State is the other) who can make that claim. Sure, there were things the Gophers could have done better/differently, but the entire game it seemed as if the Gophers were doing everything in their power just to keep it close, and I don't really remember ever thinking they had a chance to pull it out. Jordan Crawford was by far the best player on the court with his 28 point, 6 rebound, 5 assist performance (which he followed up with 27-6-6 against Pitt) and the Gophers had no idea how to keep Love and McLean off the boards. Xavier has enough talent to take down Kansas State and could advance to the Elite 8 this week. I don't think they have enough juice to beat Syracuse, but once you get this deep, anything can happen.
2. Joe Mauer. Or Bill Smith or Ron Shapiro or whoever you want to give the credit too. The important thing is that Mauer is signed Even if he regresses a bit, his downside is probably something like .310/.390/.480 with 15 homers, and from a gold glove catcher even that is probably worth close to what he's getting paid. Add in his upside, MVP-potential, and what he means to this town, and it had to be done. I'd say this is all they had left to do, but with Nathan now out for the year I think they need to make another move. This team is really good and right on the verge, and I'm afraid if they don't do something it's going to be a disaster. Tell me you don't see them going closer-by-committee, having it become a disaster, and not realizing or trying to make a change until it's too late. That's exactly something the Twins would do. I read somewhere that the Padres want Perkins and two "good" prospects for Heath Bell. Now, if that "good" level means guys like Ben Revere and Wilson Ramos I'd tell the Padres to go screw, but if they're talking like Trevor Plouffe and Steven Tolleson then it's time to run, not walk, to make this deal.
3. Ali Farokhmanesh. The biggest upset of the tournament thus far has got to be UNI's victory over Kansas (well, Ohio over G-Town was probably bigger, but essentially meaningless), and the hero was without question Cedar Falls' version of Jamal Abu Shamala in Farokmanesh. That monster three pointer he hit with 30 seconds left was the stupidest, dumbest, ballsiest shot I've ever seen, and since it went down and ended up being the game winner, Farok goes down as a hero rather than a goat, and is going to end up being a tournament legend who is talked about long after his playing days are done a la Bryce Drew. Add in the fact that he also hit a three with under five seconds to go to give the Panthers their opening round win over UNLV, and this kid had one hell of a weekend. It's just unfortunate that he's a terrorist.
4. Cornell. Remember all that "under-seeded" talk? Well, two wins and a sweet 16 berth says that wasn't just crazy talk. I still contend the Big Red caught a nice break in running up against two team's that play a similar style and weren't going to out-athletic them, but you can't really talk down to an Ivy League team that ends up playing in the second week of the tournament. Even though Ryan Wittman gets most of the press, especially here with his Minnesota connection, seven-footer Jeff Foote might end up being the key against Kentucky. He's not just some big ole seven-footer who plays because he's seven feet tall in the Ivy League, he has some legit skill and good footwork and is going to need it all against Kentucky. This is going to be a real tester, since Kentucky is playing as well as it has all year. I'd love to see Calipari go down, no matter how unlikely it may be.
5. Michigan State. How annoying are the Spartans? It's the same thing every year, they look mediocre all through the Big Ten season, end up with a middle-high type seed, you think they're ripe for the upset, and then they just keep winning. That monstrously entertaining win over Maryland on Sunday gave Michigan State their third Sweet-16 in as many years (meanwhile the Gophers haven't made it that far in over ten years) and showed once again why you never, ever doubt Izzo. I read that there is a 90% chance Sparty will be without Kalin Lucas against Northern Iowa, and normally I'd say that is a pretty big deal, but it doesn't seem to matter who is there or gone on Izzo's teams, so they'll probably win by ten. Oh, and Durrell Summers is absolutely going to be a huge star next season. All Big-10 First Team.
WHO SUCKED
1. Scottie Reynolds. There's not much as enjoyable as watching a truly overrated chucker nearly shoot his team to a loss in the first round against a 15-seed and then, after his team manages to escape thanks to an NCAA mandate to the refs that Robert Morris isn't allowed to win, doing the same thing 48 hours later, but this time they couldn't escape and were dropped by the suddenly super popular Omar Samhan and St. Mary's 75-68. I'm not kidding either. Your precious All-American shot 2-15 in the first game and was 2-11 in the second, going 4-26 in what has to be a record in futility from someone who idiotic fans love because they're stupid. He makes Stephen Curry look like Magic Johnson. I'm almost sad he's graduating, just because he's so fun to root against, but I will enjoy not having to hear about him anymore. Maybe the most overrated player in history.
2. The Big East. Speaking of overrated, what do we think of the Big East? Eight teams with bids, called the best conference in all the land for the second-year in a row, and yet only two teams (Syracuse and West Virginia) are still alive for the Sweet 16. It's really not that bad if you think about how they made up 1/8th of the invitees and still make up 1/8th of the remaining teams, but they were set up for a lot more success. Both Villanova and Georgetown had Final Four aspirations and Pitt was a three-seed, Marquette and Notre Dame as six seeds were picked by some to make the Sweet 16 but lost in the first round, and Louisville was thought to be a challenge for Duke in round two but couldn't even get past Cal. That's currently a 6-6 record for the conference by my count, which sounds ok until you think about how they had a 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 6, 6, and 9 seed. Seriously, pretty embarrassing.
3. The Mountain West. Well, if we're going to talk about disappointing conferences we can't very well ignore the Mountain West, which had three teams invited, two with a good chance at getting to the Sweet 16, but instead ended up going just 2-3, with their top team (New Mexico) getting bounced hard in round 2 by Washington by 20 and BYU refusing to even show up in their second round guy against Kansas State after just squeaking by a Florida team that probably didn't even deserve a bid. Not that I necessarily thought these guys were great, but this certainly doesn't help my argument that high-mid-major teams from conferences like the A-10 and MWC can be valid sleepers in the NCAA tournament. Apparently you have to go to smaller conferences like the Ivy or Missouri Valley to have a prayer.
4. Richmond. Hey, speaking of teams that suck and aren't valid sleepers, let's give it up for my most disappointing team of the dance - The Richmond Spiders. I was so fired up for these guys to make a run. They closed out winning twelve of their last fourteen including a huge win over Xavier in the A-10 tournament, and even though I knew St. Mary's was a dangerous 10 seed I was still expecting a Richmond win followed by another win over Villanova. Obviously not. And they would have beaten Villanova, too, just like the Gaels did, but they decided not to show up for their first game. Seriously, have to seen this stat? Richmond was out-rebounded 39-16? How is that even possible? The earlier mentioned Samhan had twelve boards all by himself, which means he damned near out-rebounded the Spiders all by himself. Ridiculous. And such a good team, too. I mean, they just had 35 rebounds in a game against Xavier the prior week. Such a shame.
5. Blake Hoffarber. I'm sick of Hoffarber. Actually that's not exactly true, I'm just sick of an offense that relies so heavily on someone who can't create his own shot. Hoff is just fine. He's a great shooter (unless he's too open), he's a good rebounder for his size and lack of athleticism, and he's a smart player. I'm just sick of watching all these good teams and all these good players and we're stuck watching the Gophers and their two players who can create their own shot, one of whom is likely functionally retarded. I want better players, dammit. Get on it, Tubby. You need to get this program turned all the way around before you bolt to Auburn. Don't you betray me, too. I'm still trying to recover from Rico Tucker turning his back on me.
Quickly, two things that stood out from the Chicago weekend:
1) A Colombian man openly weeping in the middle of the Dayton bar while listening to latin music on his pink Ipod.
2) Loud, obnoxious Kansas fan yelling "yes" when Kansas hit that meaningless three with 0.4 left in the game. He either forgot the actual score or has no idea how basketball works, and I'm not sure which way is funnier but I know he had all of us rolling in the back room after we heard him.
Anyway, on to the usual garbage:
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Xavier. It's hard to blame the Gophers too much for the loss on Friday, particularly when the Musketeers were the far better team, and they continued to show that by beating Pitt on Sunday to advance to the Sweet 16 for the third consecutive season - one of just two teams (Michigan State is the other) who can make that claim. Sure, there were things the Gophers could have done better/differently, but the entire game it seemed as if the Gophers were doing everything in their power just to keep it close, and I don't really remember ever thinking they had a chance to pull it out. Jordan Crawford was by far the best player on the court with his 28 point, 6 rebound, 5 assist performance (which he followed up with 27-6-6 against Pitt) and the Gophers had no idea how to keep Love and McLean off the boards. Xavier has enough talent to take down Kansas State and could advance to the Elite 8 this week. I don't think they have enough juice to beat Syracuse, but once you get this deep, anything can happen.
2. Joe Mauer. Or Bill Smith or Ron Shapiro or whoever you want to give the credit too. The important thing is that Mauer is signed Even if he regresses a bit, his downside is probably something like .310/.390/.480 with 15 homers, and from a gold glove catcher even that is probably worth close to what he's getting paid. Add in his upside, MVP-potential, and what he means to this town, and it had to be done. I'd say this is all they had left to do, but with Nathan now out for the year I think they need to make another move. This team is really good and right on the verge, and I'm afraid if they don't do something it's going to be a disaster. Tell me you don't see them going closer-by-committee, having it become a disaster, and not realizing or trying to make a change until it's too late. That's exactly something the Twins would do. I read somewhere that the Padres want Perkins and two "good" prospects for Heath Bell. Now, if that "good" level means guys like Ben Revere and Wilson Ramos I'd tell the Padres to go screw, but if they're talking like Trevor Plouffe and Steven Tolleson then it's time to run, not walk, to make this deal.
3. Ali Farokhmanesh. The biggest upset of the tournament thus far has got to be UNI's victory over Kansas (well, Ohio over G-Town was probably bigger, but essentially meaningless), and the hero was without question Cedar Falls' version of Jamal Abu Shamala in Farokmanesh. That monster three pointer he hit with 30 seconds left was the stupidest, dumbest, ballsiest shot I've ever seen, and since it went down and ended up being the game winner, Farok goes down as a hero rather than a goat, and is going to end up being a tournament legend who is talked about long after his playing days are done a la Bryce Drew. Add in the fact that he also hit a three with under five seconds to go to give the Panthers their opening round win over UNLV, and this kid had one hell of a weekend. It's just unfortunate that he's a terrorist.
4. Cornell. Remember all that "under-seeded" talk? Well, two wins and a sweet 16 berth says that wasn't just crazy talk. I still contend the Big Red caught a nice break in running up against two team's that play a similar style and weren't going to out-athletic them, but you can't really talk down to an Ivy League team that ends up playing in the second week of the tournament. Even though Ryan Wittman gets most of the press, especially here with his Minnesota connection, seven-footer Jeff Foote might end up being the key against Kentucky. He's not just some big ole seven-footer who plays because he's seven feet tall in the Ivy League, he has some legit skill and good footwork and is going to need it all against Kentucky. This is going to be a real tester, since Kentucky is playing as well as it has all year. I'd love to see Calipari go down, no matter how unlikely it may be.
5. Michigan State. How annoying are the Spartans? It's the same thing every year, they look mediocre all through the Big Ten season, end up with a middle-high type seed, you think they're ripe for the upset, and then they just keep winning. That monstrously entertaining win over Maryland on Sunday gave Michigan State their third Sweet-16 in as many years (meanwhile the Gophers haven't made it that far in over ten years) and showed once again why you never, ever doubt Izzo. I read that there is a 90% chance Sparty will be without Kalin Lucas against Northern Iowa, and normally I'd say that is a pretty big deal, but it doesn't seem to matter who is there or gone on Izzo's teams, so they'll probably win by ten. Oh, and Durrell Summers is absolutely going to be a huge star next season. All Big-10 First Team.
WHO SUCKED
1. Scottie Reynolds. There's not much as enjoyable as watching a truly overrated chucker nearly shoot his team to a loss in the first round against a 15-seed and then, after his team manages to escape thanks to an NCAA mandate to the refs that Robert Morris isn't allowed to win, doing the same thing 48 hours later, but this time they couldn't escape and were dropped by the suddenly super popular Omar Samhan and St. Mary's 75-68. I'm not kidding either. Your precious All-American shot 2-15 in the first game and was 2-11 in the second, going 4-26 in what has to be a record in futility from someone who idiotic fans love because they're stupid. He makes Stephen Curry look like Magic Johnson. I'm almost sad he's graduating, just because he's so fun to root against, but I will enjoy not having to hear about him anymore. Maybe the most overrated player in history.
2. The Big East. Speaking of overrated, what do we think of the Big East? Eight teams with bids, called the best conference in all the land for the second-year in a row, and yet only two teams (Syracuse and West Virginia) are still alive for the Sweet 16. It's really not that bad if you think about how they made up 1/8th of the invitees and still make up 1/8th of the remaining teams, but they were set up for a lot more success. Both Villanova and Georgetown had Final Four aspirations and Pitt was a three-seed, Marquette and Notre Dame as six seeds were picked by some to make the Sweet 16 but lost in the first round, and Louisville was thought to be a challenge for Duke in round two but couldn't even get past Cal. That's currently a 6-6 record for the conference by my count, which sounds ok until you think about how they had a 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 6, 6, and 9 seed. Seriously, pretty embarrassing.
3. The Mountain West. Well, if we're going to talk about disappointing conferences we can't very well ignore the Mountain West, which had three teams invited, two with a good chance at getting to the Sweet 16, but instead ended up going just 2-3, with their top team (New Mexico) getting bounced hard in round 2 by Washington by 20 and BYU refusing to even show up in their second round guy against Kansas State after just squeaking by a Florida team that probably didn't even deserve a bid. Not that I necessarily thought these guys were great, but this certainly doesn't help my argument that high-mid-major teams from conferences like the A-10 and MWC can be valid sleepers in the NCAA tournament. Apparently you have to go to smaller conferences like the Ivy or Missouri Valley to have a prayer.
4. Richmond. Hey, speaking of teams that suck and aren't valid sleepers, let's give it up for my most disappointing team of the dance - The Richmond Spiders. I was so fired up for these guys to make a run. They closed out winning twelve of their last fourteen including a huge win over Xavier in the A-10 tournament, and even though I knew St. Mary's was a dangerous 10 seed I was still expecting a Richmond win followed by another win over Villanova. Obviously not. And they would have beaten Villanova, too, just like the Gaels did, but they decided not to show up for their first game. Seriously, have to seen this stat? Richmond was out-rebounded 39-16? How is that even possible? The earlier mentioned Samhan had twelve boards all by himself, which means he damned near out-rebounded the Spiders all by himself. Ridiculous. And such a good team, too. I mean, they just had 35 rebounds in a game against Xavier the prior week. Such a shame.
5. Blake Hoffarber. I'm sick of Hoffarber. Actually that's not exactly true, I'm just sick of an offense that relies so heavily on someone who can't create his own shot. Hoff is just fine. He's a great shooter (unless he's too open), he's a good rebounder for his size and lack of athleticism, and he's a smart player. I'm just sick of watching all these good teams and all these good players and we're stuck watching the Gophers and their two players who can create their own shot, one of whom is likely functionally retarded. I want better players, dammit. Get on it, Tubby. You need to get this program turned all the way around before you bolt to Auburn. Don't you betray me, too. I'm still trying to recover from Rico Tucker turning his back on me.
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Tournament Predictions
Ok, I think I have my bracket all figured out. But before I get to telling you what is going to happen, I'm going to go ahead and strongly recommend the new Alice in Wonderland movie. With about as strong of a recommendation as I can give. I'm a huge fan of the original stories, and this managed to stay true to those while being completely original at the same time. Well, not completely original. At it's core it's kind of the same story that's been done a million times, but doing it with time-honored characters with enough of a twist so it doesn't feel cliched is a tall task, but Burton pulls it off brilliantly.
It's not for everyone, like most of Burton's work, and only scores 53% positive on Rotten Tomatoes, but if you like Burton, Sleepy Hollow, Nightmare Before Christmas, and/or the original Alice stories you need to go see this, and in 3D if you can. I was skeptical about 3D, but it's not at all intrusive or distracting, and really just gives the screen more depth. And, of course, there are the few jump scenes. I could write paragraphs on this movie, but that's not why we're here, so just go see it.
On to the tournament. Here's what is going to happen:
MIDWEST REGION
FIRST ROUND
-Kansas over Lehigh - Slaughter.
-UNLV over Northern Iowa - UNI gets all this pub for their great defense, but they suck on offense.
-Mich State over New Mex State - This is one 12/5 game that isn't remotely up for grabs.
-Maryland over Houston - The Cougars have a few good players, but they're lucky to be here. Maryland is a Final Four contender.
-SDSU over Tennessee - The Vols are just streaky enough to lose a first round game.
-Georgetown over Ohio - Slaughter.
-Oklahoma State over Georgia Tech - The really funny thing is that the Yellow Jackets have enough talent to challenge for a Final Four berth, but they can't put it together.
-Ohio State over UCSB - Slaughter.
SECOND ROUND
-Kansas over UNLV - I like the MWC, and I like UNLV, but they have no chance to match up with Kansas.
-Maryland over Michigan State - One of the toughest calls for me in the entire tournament, but I think Greivis Vasquez is the kind of player who can carry a team in this kind of tournament thing.
-Georgetown over SDSU - Like I said, I like the MWC, as shown by having SDSU win one, but they can't hang with the Hoyas.
-Ohio State over Oklahoma State - James Anderson vs. Evan Turner should be fantastic, but Turner has a lot more help.
SWEET SIXTEEN
-Maryland over Kansas - This might be my dumbest call of the tournament, but everyone really needs to chill about Kansas. They aren't nearly as good as you would all like to believe. They're basically the same team from last year, and I don't remember them in the Final Four.
-Ohio State over Georgetown - The Buckeyes have zero answer for Greg Monroe, but the Hoyas have no answer for Turner. Or Lighty. Or Buford. One of those last two is going to have a huge tournament, I'm just not sure which.
ELITE 8
-Ohio State over Maryland - I've said since the year started that Ohio State was a Final Four team, I can't very well back off now.
WEST REGION
FIRST ROUND
-Syracuse over Vermont - VM beat the Cuse as a 14 a few years ago, and I expect this one to be closer than you'd think, despite the fact that one fact has nothing at all to do with the other.
-Florida State over Gonzaga - FSU is great defensively, as long as they can find some scoring they should roll.
-UTEP over Butler - Butler finally grabs a high seed, just in time to lose to the new Butler.
-Vandy over Murray State - I don't even like Vandy, but why are people calling Murray a possible sleeper? They're awful.
-Xavier over Minnesota - My official pick is actually the Gophers, but I'm picking X for my bracket.
-Pitt over Oakland - This is going to be tight, trust me.
-BYU over Florida - This one isn't. Florida doesn't even belong in the tournament.
-Kansas State over North Texas - Not really sure what to make of K State, but this isn't the game they're going to lose.
SECOND ROUND
-Syracuse over Florida State - The Seminoles "Good D No O" shtick will work against the Zags, but you need to bring a complete game to beat the Orange.
-UTEP over Vanderbilt - I like UTEP and I hate Vandy. I actually would have picked Vandy to lose against almost anybody, but I don't want to validate morons who think Murray State is an upset candidate.
-Xavier over Pitt - Or Minnesota over Pitt, doesn't matter who wins round 1, Pitt isn't getting out of the weekend.
-BYU over Kansas State - I anguished over this one. I know taking a 7 over a 2 is a risk and really sets me up to lose a bunch of points, but I can't help it. K State is going down early, and BYU is the call.
SWEET SIXTEEN
-Syracuse over UTEP. The Miners run ends.
-BYU over Xavier. Pretty good matchup, but BYU gets to play in Salt Lake if they make it this far.
ELITE 8
-Syracuse over BYU. The Salt Lake thing makes this close, but the Orange advance to the Final Four without having to play anyone seeded higher than a 7.
EAST REGION
FIRST ROUND
-Kentucky over ETSU - Laugher. Probably the biggest margin of the tournament.
-Texas over Wake Forest - I was looking forward to picking against both of these teams, and now they're matched up so I have to pick somebody to win. I'll go with the Longhorns since they have more talent.
-Temple over Cornell - I, like man, think both these teams were underseeded and like them both quite a bit. Somebody's got to win though, and the Owls have more talent.
-Wisconsin over Wofford - I watched Wofford win their conference championship. That was by default. They, and the entire SoCon, are garbage.
-Marquette over Washington - I heard somebody saying the Pac 10 is undervalued because of East Coast Bias. That may be true a lot of years, but this year the Pac is just terrible. There is no way this game should be a pick 'em.
-New Mexico over Montana - This game bores me.
-Clemson over Missouri - I liked Mizzou here until I found out they have a starter out and his replacement hurt.
-WVU over Morgan State - One last hurrah for the chucker.
SECOND ROUND
-Kentucky over Texas - Texas actually has the talent to knock out the Wildcats, and I really hope they do.
-Wisconsin over Temple - Fascinating match up of two similar teams, but Wisconsin does it better.
-New Mexico over Marquette - A lot of people are taking Marquette here, but I have too strong of a crush on Darington Hobson.
-WVU over Clemson - Since I have Clemson winning last round pretty much by default, I can't very well have them beating my Final Four team.
SWEET SIXTEEN
-Kentucky over Wisconsin - Another good opportunity for Kentucky to slip up, but I'm not seeing it.
-WVU over New Mexico - Hobson is really good, but the Mountaineers have about five guys who are nearly as good, with a couple who are probably better.
ELITE 8
-WVU over Kentucky - This is going to be a hell of a game. Look for De'Sean Butler to continue his heroics.
SOUTH REGION
FIRST ROUND
-Duke over Ark-Pine Bluff - I'm just glad the Golden Lions got to play in a real game.
-Louisville over Cal - I'm not really sure what to think of either team. Both can be really good or really bad. I'll give the advantage to Pitino.
-Texas A&M over Utah State - The Aggies knock out a team from Utah in the first round for the third year in a row. Anti-Mormon bias.
-Siena over Purdue - I'm almost starting to think this is reaching "too obvious" status, but I can't talk myself out of it.
-ODU over Notre Dame - I don't get it, the Irish went on a tear without Harangody, but now he's back. Ergo, they're going to suck again. Plus ODU is pretty good.
-Baylor over Sam Houston - I think I read somewhere that this might end up being a barn-burner. That would F up a lot of brackets.
-Richmond over St. Mary's - Love me some Spiders. If they were playing any other 10 seed they'd blow them away, bad luck getting the Gaels.
-Villanova over Robert Morris - Nova is overrated, but not so overrated that RMU could win.
SECOND WIN
-Duke over Louisville - I know some people (Snacks) are taking the Cardinals here, and although I can see it, I can't quite pick it.
-Texas A&M over Siena - I'm close to picking Siena here, but I can't quite talk myself into it, seeing as how they beat nobody this year.
-Baylor over ODU - I know Baylor is the sexy pick for the Final Four, and even I am picking them here, but this will be a dangerous game for them.
-Richmond over Villanova - I told you I liked the Spiders. But Villanova is supremely overseeded at #2. They are in a complete tailspin right now, and Scottie Reynolds is the most overrated player since Steph Curry.
SWEET SIXTEEN
-Duke over Texas A&M - You know what's sick? The Aggies are the best team the Blue Devils could possibly face in the first three rounds. NCAA loves Duke like a fat kid loves cake.
-Baylor over Richmond - Well, I don't love the Spiders quite this much.
ELITE 8
-Duke over Baylor - I just can't put Baylor in the Final Four. Any other 2 seed, any other three seed, and a bunch of four or five seeds would go over Duke, but none of them ended up in this bracket. This sucks.
FINAL FOUR
-Syracuse over Ohio State - The Orange is just such a complete team. I love the Buckeyes, but I think the Cuse is just a bit better.
-West Virginia over Duke - The Dukies finally play a real team, and they get smoked.
-Syracuse over West Virginia - A Big East showdown for the crown, with Syracuse taking it down and Andy Rautins proving me completely wrong by winning Most Outstanding Player.
There you go, the perfect bracket. Just go ahead and copy those picks and you'll be rolling in the dough Scrooge McDuck style. Unless you are in the same pool I am, in which case you can't copy my picks. It's unethical.
It's not for everyone, like most of Burton's work, and only scores 53% positive on Rotten Tomatoes, but if you like Burton, Sleepy Hollow, Nightmare Before Christmas, and/or the original Alice stories you need to go see this, and in 3D if you can. I was skeptical about 3D, but it's not at all intrusive or distracting, and really just gives the screen more depth. And, of course, there are the few jump scenes. I could write paragraphs on this movie, but that's not why we're here, so just go see it.
On to the tournament. Here's what is going to happen:
MIDWEST REGION
FIRST ROUND
-Kansas over Lehigh - Slaughter.
-UNLV over Northern Iowa - UNI gets all this pub for their great defense, but they suck on offense.
-Mich State over New Mex State - This is one 12/5 game that isn't remotely up for grabs.
-Maryland over Houston - The Cougars have a few good players, but they're lucky to be here. Maryland is a Final Four contender.
-SDSU over Tennessee - The Vols are just streaky enough to lose a first round game.
-Georgetown over Ohio - Slaughter.
-Oklahoma State over Georgia Tech - The really funny thing is that the Yellow Jackets have enough talent to challenge for a Final Four berth, but they can't put it together.
-Ohio State over UCSB - Slaughter.
SECOND ROUND
-Kansas over UNLV - I like the MWC, and I like UNLV, but they have no chance to match up with Kansas.
-Maryland over Michigan State - One of the toughest calls for me in the entire tournament, but I think Greivis Vasquez is the kind of player who can carry a team in this kind of tournament thing.
-Georgetown over SDSU - Like I said, I like the MWC, as shown by having SDSU win one, but they can't hang with the Hoyas.
-Ohio State over Oklahoma State - James Anderson vs. Evan Turner should be fantastic, but Turner has a lot more help.
SWEET SIXTEEN
-Maryland over Kansas - This might be my dumbest call of the tournament, but everyone really needs to chill about Kansas. They aren't nearly as good as you would all like to believe. They're basically the same team from last year, and I don't remember them in the Final Four.
-Ohio State over Georgetown - The Buckeyes have zero answer for Greg Monroe, but the Hoyas have no answer for Turner. Or Lighty. Or Buford. One of those last two is going to have a huge tournament, I'm just not sure which.
ELITE 8
-Ohio State over Maryland - I've said since the year started that Ohio State was a Final Four team, I can't very well back off now.
WEST REGION
FIRST ROUND
-Syracuse over Vermont - VM beat the Cuse as a 14 a few years ago, and I expect this one to be closer than you'd think, despite the fact that one fact has nothing at all to do with the other.
-Florida State over Gonzaga - FSU is great defensively, as long as they can find some scoring they should roll.
-UTEP over Butler - Butler finally grabs a high seed, just in time to lose to the new Butler.
-Vandy over Murray State - I don't even like Vandy, but why are people calling Murray a possible sleeper? They're awful.
-Xavier over Minnesota - My official pick is actually the Gophers, but I'm picking X for my bracket.
-Pitt over Oakland - This is going to be tight, trust me.
-BYU over Florida - This one isn't. Florida doesn't even belong in the tournament.
-Kansas State over North Texas - Not really sure what to make of K State, but this isn't the game they're going to lose.
SECOND ROUND
-Syracuse over Florida State - The Seminoles "Good D No O" shtick will work against the Zags, but you need to bring a complete game to beat the Orange.
-UTEP over Vanderbilt - I like UTEP and I hate Vandy. I actually would have picked Vandy to lose against almost anybody, but I don't want to validate morons who think Murray State is an upset candidate.
-Xavier over Pitt - Or Minnesota over Pitt, doesn't matter who wins round 1, Pitt isn't getting out of the weekend.
-BYU over Kansas State - I anguished over this one. I know taking a 7 over a 2 is a risk and really sets me up to lose a bunch of points, but I can't help it. K State is going down early, and BYU is the call.
SWEET SIXTEEN
-Syracuse over UTEP. The Miners run ends.
-BYU over Xavier. Pretty good matchup, but BYU gets to play in Salt Lake if they make it this far.
ELITE 8
-Syracuse over BYU. The Salt Lake thing makes this close, but the Orange advance to the Final Four without having to play anyone seeded higher than a 7.
EAST REGION
FIRST ROUND
-Kentucky over ETSU - Laugher. Probably the biggest margin of the tournament.
-Texas over Wake Forest - I was looking forward to picking against both of these teams, and now they're matched up so I have to pick somebody to win. I'll go with the Longhorns since they have more talent.
-Temple over Cornell - I, like man, think both these teams were underseeded and like them both quite a bit. Somebody's got to win though, and the Owls have more talent.
-Wisconsin over Wofford - I watched Wofford win their conference championship. That was by default. They, and the entire SoCon, are garbage.
-Marquette over Washington - I heard somebody saying the Pac 10 is undervalued because of East Coast Bias. That may be true a lot of years, but this year the Pac is just terrible. There is no way this game should be a pick 'em.
-New Mexico over Montana - This game bores me.
-Clemson over Missouri - I liked Mizzou here until I found out they have a starter out and his replacement hurt.
-WVU over Morgan State - One last hurrah for the chucker.
SECOND ROUND
-Kentucky over Texas - Texas actually has the talent to knock out the Wildcats, and I really hope they do.
-Wisconsin over Temple - Fascinating match up of two similar teams, but Wisconsin does it better.
-New Mexico over Marquette - A lot of people are taking Marquette here, but I have too strong of a crush on Darington Hobson.
-WVU over Clemson - Since I have Clemson winning last round pretty much by default, I can't very well have them beating my Final Four team.
SWEET SIXTEEN
-Kentucky over Wisconsin - Another good opportunity for Kentucky to slip up, but I'm not seeing it.
-WVU over New Mexico - Hobson is really good, but the Mountaineers have about five guys who are nearly as good, with a couple who are probably better.
ELITE 8
-WVU over Kentucky - This is going to be a hell of a game. Look for De'Sean Butler to continue his heroics.
SOUTH REGION
FIRST ROUND
-Duke over Ark-Pine Bluff - I'm just glad the Golden Lions got to play in a real game.
-Louisville over Cal - I'm not really sure what to think of either team. Both can be really good or really bad. I'll give the advantage to Pitino.
-Texas A&M over Utah State - The Aggies knock out a team from Utah in the first round for the third year in a row. Anti-Mormon bias.
-Siena over Purdue - I'm almost starting to think this is reaching "too obvious" status, but I can't talk myself out of it.
-ODU over Notre Dame - I don't get it, the Irish went on a tear without Harangody, but now he's back. Ergo, they're going to suck again. Plus ODU is pretty good.
-Baylor over Sam Houston - I think I read somewhere that this might end up being a barn-burner. That would F up a lot of brackets.
-Richmond over St. Mary's - Love me some Spiders. If they were playing any other 10 seed they'd blow them away, bad luck getting the Gaels.
-Villanova over Robert Morris - Nova is overrated, but not so overrated that RMU could win.
SECOND WIN
-Duke over Louisville - I know some people (Snacks) are taking the Cardinals here, and although I can see it, I can't quite pick it.
-Texas A&M over Siena - I'm close to picking Siena here, but I can't quite talk myself into it, seeing as how they beat nobody this year.
-Baylor over ODU - I know Baylor is the sexy pick for the Final Four, and even I am picking them here, but this will be a dangerous game for them.
-Richmond over Villanova - I told you I liked the Spiders. But Villanova is supremely overseeded at #2. They are in a complete tailspin right now, and Scottie Reynolds is the most overrated player since Steph Curry.
SWEET SIXTEEN
-Duke over Texas A&M - You know what's sick? The Aggies are the best team the Blue Devils could possibly face in the first three rounds. NCAA loves Duke like a fat kid loves cake.
-Baylor over Richmond - Well, I don't love the Spiders quite this much.
ELITE 8
-Duke over Baylor - I just can't put Baylor in the Final Four. Any other 2 seed, any other three seed, and a bunch of four or five seeds would go over Duke, but none of them ended up in this bracket. This sucks.
FINAL FOUR
-Syracuse over Ohio State - The Orange is just such a complete team. I love the Buckeyes, but I think the Cuse is just a bit better.
-West Virginia over Duke - The Dukies finally play a real team, and they get smoked.
-Syracuse over West Virginia - A Big East showdown for the crown, with Syracuse taking it down and Andy Rautins proving me completely wrong by winning Most Outstanding Player.
There you go, the perfect bracket. Just go ahead and copy those picks and you'll be rolling in the dough Scrooge McDuck style. Unless you are in the same pool I am, in which case you can't copy my picks. It's unethical.
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
Gophers Sweet-16 Bound?
As I'm sure you are aware, the Gophers have somehow made the NCAA tournament as an 11 seed, and now take on Xavier Friday morning. As you may also be aware, I will be traveling with Snacks and Snake to visit Bogart and watch the first two rounds this weekend. I'm not really sure why I bring that up, except that I'm pretty fired up about both developments. There's nothing quite like drinking and watching March Madness all day and tonight and then drinking and playing Madden on a 12-foot TV. And I'm almost as excited for the Gophers. So let's hop to it, Gomer.
1. So just how good is Xavier? Good, but not great or unbeatable. The record is an impressive 24-8, and going 14-2 in a very good A-10 this year is nothing to be ignored, but that shouldn't be looked at as a sign of invincibility in any way. Although the Musketeers played a very good out-of-conference schedule, they missed out on almost every opportunity to grab a big win. They lost to Marquette, Baylor, Kansas State, Butler, and Wake Forest, with their best wins coming over Florida and Cincinnati. Their record against the other NCAA teams from the A-10 was just 1-2 and they lost by 25 against Dayton. They won't beat themselves (there isn't a bad loss in the bunch) so he Gophers won' be able to stumble into a victory, but if they play as well as they can this game is eminently winnable.
2. That twin towers thing the Gophers have going on, will that work again? Not only could it work, but it might have to. Xavier has some serious size on the inside; 6-9, 265lb. Jason Love, 7-0, 265lb. Kenny Frease, and 6-8, 235lb. Jamel McLean all play at least 17 minutes a game, shoot better than 50%, and Love and McLean average around a triple-double per game each. If you go ahead and add in the fact that Xavier is one of the best team's in the country at defending the three-pointer (opponents shoot just 29% from three against them), and it's clear that Ralph, Colton, or both are going to have to have a big game if the Gophers are going to advance.
3. Who are the key players for the Musketeers? Point guard Terrell Holloway and swingman Jordan Crawford. Holloway is quick as all hell and is one of those kind of guards who seem like they are just a hair short of completely out of control, but this year he's managed to nearly double his points (to 11.8 per game) and assists (to 3.9) while leaving his turnovers at a comfortable 1.9, and has become a truly dangerous lead guard, and a great closer at the end of games with his 85% free throw shooting. Crawford, formerly of the Hoosiers, is the the team's leading scorer at 19.7 per, and has turned himself into a hell of an all-around player. He's hit double-figures in all but one game this season, and that was the fourth game of the year. He's tough to handle at 6-4 because he can get to the rim and can hit the three - he's a very, very good player (and a member of my fantasy team this year). If anybody in this game from either side could single-handedly carry their team to victory, it's Crawford.
4. Anything else we need to know? Pace. Speed, and Pace. Xavier plays a quick, uptempo game and ranked 38th in tempo, while the Gophers play far slower, ranking 205th. I think the Gopher number is deflated a bit by playing in such a slow conference overall, but they're never going to be confused for Tarkanian's UNLV teams. They can really push because of their athletes, and especially because of Holloway and his back-up, Mark Lyons. They are both incredibly quick, incredibly fast with or without the ball, and generally make good decisions (particularly Holloway). In fact, PM Thor from the Xavier message board I became a member of this offseason thanks to my incredibly accurate A-10 preview wants us to know,
5. So who wins? Make no mistake, this Xavier team is very, very good. Don't relax because they're A-10, don't relax because, outside of Jordan Crawford, you may not recognize any names, don't relax because they are just a six seed and don't relax because the Gophers played so well against Michigan State and Purdue - this is a good team that is probably underseeded by a spot or two. That being said, they aren't invincible either, and the Gophers have looked so, so good in the past month save for a couple games, and this game will probably come down to the very end. I also think both teams are better than Pitt, and whoever wins here ends up advancing to the Sweet 16, minimum. My head gives a slight edge to X, but my heart says otherwise:
Minnesota 66, Xavier 65.
There are three important things to remember here:
1. This should be a great game.
2. In general, the Musketeer fanbase seems like a bunch of pretty good guys, at least in my limited experience.
3. Whoever wins, at least those assholes from Dayton are stuck in the NIT.
1. So just how good is Xavier? Good, but not great or unbeatable. The record is an impressive 24-8, and going 14-2 in a very good A-10 this year is nothing to be ignored, but that shouldn't be looked at as a sign of invincibility in any way. Although the Musketeers played a very good out-of-conference schedule, they missed out on almost every opportunity to grab a big win. They lost to Marquette, Baylor, Kansas State, Butler, and Wake Forest, with their best wins coming over Florida and Cincinnati. Their record against the other NCAA teams from the A-10 was just 1-2 and they lost by 25 against Dayton. They won't beat themselves (there isn't a bad loss in the bunch) so he Gophers won' be able to stumble into a victory, but if they play as well as they can this game is eminently winnable.
2. That twin towers thing the Gophers have going on, will that work again? Not only could it work, but it might have to. Xavier has some serious size on the inside; 6-9, 265lb. Jason Love, 7-0, 265lb. Kenny Frease, and 6-8, 235lb. Jamel McLean all play at least 17 minutes a game, shoot better than 50%, and Love and McLean average around a triple-double per game each. If you go ahead and add in the fact that Xavier is one of the best team's in the country at defending the three-pointer (opponents shoot just 29% from three against them), and it's clear that Ralph, Colton, or both are going to have to have a big game if the Gophers are going to advance.
3. Who are the key players for the Musketeers? Point guard Terrell Holloway and swingman Jordan Crawford. Holloway is quick as all hell and is one of those kind of guards who seem like they are just a hair short of completely out of control, but this year he's managed to nearly double his points (to 11.8 per game) and assists (to 3.9) while leaving his turnovers at a comfortable 1.9, and has become a truly dangerous lead guard, and a great closer at the end of games with his 85% free throw shooting. Crawford, formerly of the Hoosiers, is the the team's leading scorer at 19.7 per, and has turned himself into a hell of an all-around player. He's hit double-figures in all but one game this season, and that was the fourth game of the year. He's tough to handle at 6-4 because he can get to the rim and can hit the three - he's a very, very good player (and a member of my fantasy team this year). If anybody in this game from either side could single-handedly carry their team to victory, it's Crawford.
4. Anything else we need to know? Pace. Speed, and Pace. Xavier plays a quick, uptempo game and ranked 38th in tempo, while the Gophers play far slower, ranking 205th. I think the Gopher number is deflated a bit by playing in such a slow conference overall, but they're never going to be confused for Tarkanian's UNLV teams. They can really push because of their athletes, and especially because of Holloway and his back-up, Mark Lyons. They are both incredibly quick, incredibly fast with or without the ball, and generally make good decisions (particularly Holloway). In fact, PM Thor from the Xavier message board I became a member of this offseason thanks to my incredibly accurate A-10 preview wants us to know,
"Xs guards are going to run you ragged. Get ready to run from end to end."We've all seen games where the Gophers seemingly refuse to get back, and refuse to play anything resembling transition defense. If that happens against the Musketeers, this could get very ugly, very quickly.
5. So who wins? Make no mistake, this Xavier team is very, very good. Don't relax because they're A-10, don't relax because, outside of Jordan Crawford, you may not recognize any names, don't relax because they are just a six seed and don't relax because the Gophers played so well against Michigan State and Purdue - this is a good team that is probably underseeded by a spot or two. That being said, they aren't invincible either, and the Gophers have looked so, so good in the past month save for a couple games, and this game will probably come down to the very end. I also think both teams are better than Pitt, and whoever wins here ends up advancing to the Sweet 16, minimum. My head gives a slight edge to X, but my heart says otherwise:
Minnesota 66, Xavier 65.
There are three important things to remember here:
1. This should be a great game.
2. In general, the Musketeer fanbase seems like a bunch of pretty good guys, at least in my limited experience.
3. Whoever wins, at least those assholes from Dayton are stuck in the NIT.
Monday, March 15, 2010
Week in Review - 3/15/2010
Whew. Were you like me and had your heart drop when Florida popped up on the screen? Terrifying, but ultimately the committee made the right choices and the Gophers were rewarded for an incredible last week of ball. I like the matchup quite a bit, too. Not necessarily because I think the Gophers will have an easy time with Xavier or anything, but mainly because I think that region is pretty weak. If they can get by the Musketeers, they get the weakest three seed in the second round. They also caught a pretty big break by playing in Milwaukee, where they should have a sizable advantage in fans.
One thing is for sure, it's exciting, and the season no longer goes down as a failure. I'll be back with a true preview before I head out to Chicago with Snacks and Snake, but for now I'm predicting a Gopher win.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Colt Iverson. How did this happen? And I'm not even talking numbers, although basically scoring double his season average in every game is impressive, but his game was completely unrecognizable and I mean that in a good way. His moves were suddenly polished, and he had a lot of them. He now suddenly has a drop step. He's using shot fakes beautifully and looks like Kevin McHale down there. He can score with either hand. I have no idea what is going on here. I thought his upside was going to be like a Greg Ostertag rebounder/enforcer type who is most valuable for setting picks and his five fouls per game, but suddenly things have gotten really interesting. If this is for real, the Gophers are suddenly a dangerous team. Please let this be for real - like the Loch Ness Monster - and not some kind of false production - like the Moon Landing.
2. San Diego State. If you're on the bubble going into your conference tournament there is one surefire way to make sure you get a bid - win the whole thing, and that's what the Aztecs did, winning the MWC tournament, including wins over UNLV and New Mexico. SDSU is a dangerous team, and they went 2-1 against New Mexico this year with the loss being by just two points. Drawing Tennessee is always a mystery since they are the kind of team who could either flame out early or go on a deep run, but I'm calling an Aztec upset in the first round.
3. Duke. It's always tough to praise Duke, but they did what a lot of other regular season conference champions couldn't manage and they went out and won their conference tournament. They got lucky a bit in that Maryland got knocked out early by Georgia Tech, but winning the ACC is still winning the ACC. As a bonus, they picked up the fourth #1 seed and were somehow placed in the easiest region in the history of college basketball. But, since they're Duke, I'm sure they'll still screw it up somehow.
4. Ohio. Every year some middling team from a smaller conference gets hot and makes a run, winning their conference tournament and setting themselves up to get their doors blown off in the first round. This year, that honor goes to the Ohio Bobcats for winning the MAC, with Georgetown being the doors-blow-offer. Kent State or Akron would have been a dangerous foe, but they couldn't get it done so now we're saddled with the crappy Bobcats. And how tough is that region? The top five seeds are all legit Final Four contenders, including probably the best #1 and best #2. It should end up playing pretty close to form as I only see one real first round upset possibility, but whoever ends up coming out of there is really going to have to earn it.
5. Second-Tier basketball tournaments. I know nobody really gives a crap about the NIT, CBI, or CIT because the only thing that matters is the NCAA Tournament, and I agree with a lot of that, but I also really like the second-tier tournaments. There's some intrigue with these. Illinois and Dayton ended up in the same bracket, and that would be a pretty good matchup. Will either UCONN or North Carolina put their talent together finally and play well, or have they completely given up for the year? And if nothing else, be thankful they exist so there's some college ball to watch/wager on all week long.
WHO SUCKED
1. Conference USA. It looked like this might be a break-through year for C-USA with a legitimate chance of them getting four teams in the dance depending on how the conference tourney shook out. It shook alright, with Memphis and UAB both getting dumped by crappy teams in the quarters, ending both team's NCAA dreams and assuring that outside of UTEP, nobody would be getting an at-large bid from the conference. They did manage to get two team's in thanks to Houston's championship win, but the Cougars are crappy and UTEP got a shitty seed, so there's a good chance C-USA goes 0 for the tournament this year.
2. Virginia Tech. This is the team that most people seem to have a problem with being excluded from the tournament, but the Hokies aren't even close to deserving a bid. That 23-8 mark looks nice, but their non-conference Strength of Schedule ranked a ridiculous 344th in the country. Their only non-conference wins over teams that are even remotely not god awful were over Penn State and Georgia, pretty much the defining line before you get to god awful. And as good as a 10-6 conference mark looks, they didn't beat either Duke or Maryland. Combine all that with a first round loss to Miami in the ACC tournament, and there is no way the Hokies deserved a bid. Sorry VT, maybe try to schedule some real teams in the future.
3. Dayton. Well it is now official - this year's trip to Chicago will be a bit hollow, since when we go to the Dayton bar there won't be any Dayton fans there, unless I guess maybe there's an NIT game or something. Considering they were supposed to be at the top of the A-10 and be a sweet-16 type team, this year can't be considered anything other than a disaster. Other than one win over Xavier and an early non-conference victory over Georgia Tech, they couldn't beat anybody, whiffing on games against Villanova, Kansas State, and New Mexico, and they lost plenty of games they couldn't afford to lose. Coming down the stretch they lost games to St. Louis, Richmond, and Duquesne. Losing to Richmond and St. Louis might have been manageable, but the loss to Duquesne was a crusher.
4. Mississippi State. Jarvis Varnado deserves better than the NIT, but for the second straight year MSU didn't do enough to get into the tournament and had to try to win SEC tournament to get in. Last year it worked, this year it came just short. The Bulldogs were damn close though, leading Kentucky by three with 4.9 seconds to go in the game. The Wildcats, however, pulled off the rare intentionally miss a free throw, get the rebound and score to tie the game move and sent it into overtime where they ended up winning and sent MSU to the NIT. Hopefully they can play well and at least make it to Madison Square Garden and send Varnado out in style, a player like that deserves it. I'm really going to miss him.
5. Northwestern. Ouch. From 10-1 media sleeper sensation to earn their first ever NCAA bid all the way to a 7 seed in the NIT (and will play vs. Rhode Island in round 1). I'm not too worried about them though, they'll almost certainly get a bid next year. With Shurna and Thompson both back, Coble returning from injury, and Drew Crawford getting better they have a real chance at an upper-division finish in the conference next year. That sounds weird.
THE GOPHERS MADE THE TOURNAMENT!!!!!
One thing is for sure, it's exciting, and the season no longer goes down as a failure. I'll be back with a true preview before I head out to Chicago with Snacks and Snake, but for now I'm predicting a Gopher win.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Colt Iverson. How did this happen? And I'm not even talking numbers, although basically scoring double his season average in every game is impressive, but his game was completely unrecognizable and I mean that in a good way. His moves were suddenly polished, and he had a lot of them. He now suddenly has a drop step. He's using shot fakes beautifully and looks like Kevin McHale down there. He can score with either hand. I have no idea what is going on here. I thought his upside was going to be like a Greg Ostertag rebounder/enforcer type who is most valuable for setting picks and his five fouls per game, but suddenly things have gotten really interesting. If this is for real, the Gophers are suddenly a dangerous team. Please let this be for real - like the Loch Ness Monster - and not some kind of false production - like the Moon Landing.
2. San Diego State. If you're on the bubble going into your conference tournament there is one surefire way to make sure you get a bid - win the whole thing, and that's what the Aztecs did, winning the MWC tournament, including wins over UNLV and New Mexico. SDSU is a dangerous team, and they went 2-1 against New Mexico this year with the loss being by just two points. Drawing Tennessee is always a mystery since they are the kind of team who could either flame out early or go on a deep run, but I'm calling an Aztec upset in the first round.
3. Duke. It's always tough to praise Duke, but they did what a lot of other regular season conference champions couldn't manage and they went out and won their conference tournament. They got lucky a bit in that Maryland got knocked out early by Georgia Tech, but winning the ACC is still winning the ACC. As a bonus, they picked up the fourth #1 seed and were somehow placed in the easiest region in the history of college basketball. But, since they're Duke, I'm sure they'll still screw it up somehow.
4. Ohio. Every year some middling team from a smaller conference gets hot and makes a run, winning their conference tournament and setting themselves up to get their doors blown off in the first round. This year, that honor goes to the Ohio Bobcats for winning the MAC, with Georgetown being the doors-blow-offer. Kent State or Akron would have been a dangerous foe, but they couldn't get it done so now we're saddled with the crappy Bobcats. And how tough is that region? The top five seeds are all legit Final Four contenders, including probably the best #1 and best #2. It should end up playing pretty close to form as I only see one real first round upset possibility, but whoever ends up coming out of there is really going to have to earn it.
5. Second-Tier basketball tournaments. I know nobody really gives a crap about the NIT, CBI, or CIT because the only thing that matters is the NCAA Tournament, and I agree with a lot of that, but I also really like the second-tier tournaments. There's some intrigue with these. Illinois and Dayton ended up in the same bracket, and that would be a pretty good matchup. Will either UCONN or North Carolina put their talent together finally and play well, or have they completely given up for the year? And if nothing else, be thankful they exist so there's some college ball to watch/wager on all week long.
WHO SUCKED
1. Conference USA. It looked like this might be a break-through year for C-USA with a legitimate chance of them getting four teams in the dance depending on how the conference tourney shook out. It shook alright, with Memphis and UAB both getting dumped by crappy teams in the quarters, ending both team's NCAA dreams and assuring that outside of UTEP, nobody would be getting an at-large bid from the conference. They did manage to get two team's in thanks to Houston's championship win, but the Cougars are crappy and UTEP got a shitty seed, so there's a good chance C-USA goes 0 for the tournament this year.
2. Virginia Tech. This is the team that most people seem to have a problem with being excluded from the tournament, but the Hokies aren't even close to deserving a bid. That 23-8 mark looks nice, but their non-conference Strength of Schedule ranked a ridiculous 344th in the country. Their only non-conference wins over teams that are even remotely not god awful were over Penn State and Georgia, pretty much the defining line before you get to god awful. And as good as a 10-6 conference mark looks, they didn't beat either Duke or Maryland. Combine all that with a first round loss to Miami in the ACC tournament, and there is no way the Hokies deserved a bid. Sorry VT, maybe try to schedule some real teams in the future.
3. Dayton. Well it is now official - this year's trip to Chicago will be a bit hollow, since when we go to the Dayton bar there won't be any Dayton fans there, unless I guess maybe there's an NIT game or something. Considering they were supposed to be at the top of the A-10 and be a sweet-16 type team, this year can't be considered anything other than a disaster. Other than one win over Xavier and an early non-conference victory over Georgia Tech, they couldn't beat anybody, whiffing on games against Villanova, Kansas State, and New Mexico, and they lost plenty of games they couldn't afford to lose. Coming down the stretch they lost games to St. Louis, Richmond, and Duquesne. Losing to Richmond and St. Louis might have been manageable, but the loss to Duquesne was a crusher.
4. Mississippi State. Jarvis Varnado deserves better than the NIT, but for the second straight year MSU didn't do enough to get into the tournament and had to try to win SEC tournament to get in. Last year it worked, this year it came just short. The Bulldogs were damn close though, leading Kentucky by three with 4.9 seconds to go in the game. The Wildcats, however, pulled off the rare intentionally miss a free throw, get the rebound and score to tie the game move and sent it into overtime where they ended up winning and sent MSU to the NIT. Hopefully they can play well and at least make it to Madison Square Garden and send Varnado out in style, a player like that deserves it. I'm really going to miss him.
5. Northwestern. Ouch. From 10-1 media sleeper sensation to earn their first ever NCAA bid all the way to a 7 seed in the NIT (and will play vs. Rhode Island in round 1). I'm not too worried about them though, they'll almost certainly get a bid next year. With Shurna and Thompson both back, Coble returning from injury, and Drew Crawford getting better they have a real chance at an upper-division finish in the conference next year. That sounds weird.
THE GOPHERS MADE THE TOURNAMENT!!!!!
Thursday, March 11, 2010
Calm Down, I'm Here
If you follow this blog, you know I haven't really posted this week save one quick update from California, and if you follow the comments on this blog, you know the natives are getting pretty restless, so here I am. Seriously you guys, I really didn't have the opportunity to write anything. I had no computer the entire time I was out in California, and I didn't get back until last night after 10pm so there wasn't really any chance to get to the writing. But now I'm back, and I'm ready to write some stuff.
- First off, yes, losing Joe Nathan for the year really sucks, but we'll live. And not because he sucks now or something. Everybody needs to calm down about his blown save in the playoffs, and stop talking about how the Twins should have traded him - something I heard noted huge idiot Pat Reusse say on the radio when I was accidentally listening to that channel. He's a fantastic, fantastic closer, and you know exactly what you're getting - 40 or so saves with a 90% conversion rate, an ERA under 2.00, a WHIP under 1.00, and shit ton of strikeouts. He won't easily be replaced, and, actually, is pretty much irreplaceable.
But the good news that even if whatever direction the Twins' decide to go in - naming a replacement or closer by committee - ends up being a disaster, it's only going to cost them about three games. Aaron Gleeman breaks down the math, but the difference between a 90% save rate (Nathan) and an 80% save rate (a horrible closer) is only 5 blown saves over the course of a season, and if the Twins' bullpen ends up being average, it's only 2 extra blown saves.
If I had to make a guess, I'd say the Twins' will spread the save opportunities out between Guerrier, Mijares, and Rauch and they'll do just fine, like an average bullpen. I think that when they flame out, they'll flame out spectacularly and we might end up watching some ugly, ugly ninth innings, but overall this isn't the kind of thing that is going to hurt enough to make the differences between playoffs or second place.
There are plenty of other problems with this team that should take care of that.
- Secondly, you're probably wondering how Carlos Gomez is doing. Well I'll tell you. He's hitting .278/.316/.389 with two doubles, a walk, two Ks, and three steals in 18 at bats. That means he's getting more hits and showing the same amount of gap power while striking out about half as often and he's gotten better at stealing bases. He's also still not walking at all. It's Spring Training and all so that basically means those numbers are meaningless, but I just thought you'd like to know how Captain 5-Tool was doing so far.
- I don't know if I've mentioned this in this space, but you should all know I HATE St. Patrick's Day. I can't stand it. I hate it almost as much as I hate Wisconsin, although this hate has nothing to do with geography - I have no beef with the Irish. I just hate you people who go out and use that day as an excuse to act like total morons. If New Year's Eve is known as amateur night, St. Patrick's should be called I've never ever drank before but I'm going to chain-swallow a bunch of Irish-sounding shots to try to look cool night.
- Oh, you're probably here to read about the Gopher game. I laugh at you. Who cares? It means nothing. Well, not nothing. It does give the team the chance to play a game that might give them a chance to be on the bubble if they win. If that sounded convoluted, well, that's your team's chances to make the NCAA Tournament. A win tomorrow over Sparty at least puts them in the conversation depending on what other teams do. With UAB and Memphis both losing in the C-USA quarters, Arizona State losing early in the Pac, and Wake on a tremendous slide there are spots coming available. Somebody is going to step up and take those spots, why not the Gophers?
I CHOOSE TO BELIEVE
Gophers 70, Michigan State 65.
- First off, yes, losing Joe Nathan for the year really sucks, but we'll live. And not because he sucks now or something. Everybody needs to calm down about his blown save in the playoffs, and stop talking about how the Twins should have traded him - something I heard noted huge idiot Pat Reusse say on the radio when I was accidentally listening to that channel. He's a fantastic, fantastic closer, and you know exactly what you're getting - 40 or so saves with a 90% conversion rate, an ERA under 2.00, a WHIP under 1.00, and shit ton of strikeouts. He won't easily be replaced, and, actually, is pretty much irreplaceable.
But the good news that even if whatever direction the Twins' decide to go in - naming a replacement or closer by committee - ends up being a disaster, it's only going to cost them about three games. Aaron Gleeman breaks down the math, but the difference between a 90% save rate (Nathan) and an 80% save rate (a horrible closer) is only 5 blown saves over the course of a season, and if the Twins' bullpen ends up being average, it's only 2 extra blown saves.
If I had to make a guess, I'd say the Twins' will spread the save opportunities out between Guerrier, Mijares, and Rauch and they'll do just fine, like an average bullpen. I think that when they flame out, they'll flame out spectacularly and we might end up watching some ugly, ugly ninth innings, but overall this isn't the kind of thing that is going to hurt enough to make the differences between playoffs or second place.
There are plenty of other problems with this team that should take care of that.
- Secondly, you're probably wondering how Carlos Gomez is doing. Well I'll tell you. He's hitting .278/.316/.389 with two doubles, a walk, two Ks, and three steals in 18 at bats. That means he's getting more hits and showing the same amount of gap power while striking out about half as often and he's gotten better at stealing bases. He's also still not walking at all. It's Spring Training and all so that basically means those numbers are meaningless, but I just thought you'd like to know how Captain 5-Tool was doing so far.
- I don't know if I've mentioned this in this space, but you should all know I HATE St. Patrick's Day. I can't stand it. I hate it almost as much as I hate Wisconsin, although this hate has nothing to do with geography - I have no beef with the Irish. I just hate you people who go out and use that day as an excuse to act like total morons. If New Year's Eve is known as amateur night, St. Patrick's should be called I've never ever drank before but I'm going to chain-swallow a bunch of Irish-sounding shots to try to look cool night.
- Oh, you're probably here to read about the Gopher game. I laugh at you. Who cares? It means nothing. Well, not nothing. It does give the team the chance to play a game that might give them a chance to be on the bubble if they win. If that sounded convoluted, well, that's your team's chances to make the NCAA Tournament. A win tomorrow over Sparty at least puts them in the conversation depending on what other teams do. With UAB and Memphis both losing in the C-USA quarters, Arizona State losing early in the Pac, and Wake on a tremendous slide there are spots coming available. Somebody is going to step up and take those spots, why not the Gophers?
I CHOOSE TO BELIEVE
Gophers 70, Michigan State 65.
Monday, March 8, 2010
California is weird, dude
God I have so much to say/write about. Unfortunately, I won't be getting my new computer until Wednesday, so for now this computer in the businnes area of the hotel will have to do, and there is a line behind me so I'll have to keep this short. This place is weird as crap. I'm in Burbank/Hollywood for the new job orientation, and the people here are bizarre. I once called Dayton fans hipster doofuses, which set off a bit of an email firestorm, but I need to apologize to Dayton fans - the true hipster doofuses are out here. Every single person is wearing one of those stupid hats Kevin from the Office wears when he's playing with his band or does something equally douchey by wearing a tie, but wearing it completely untied and just hanging around his neck like a scarf or something. And everyone in the hotel bar just sits and talks about their "scripts" or their "productions." Yeah, I'm sure successfull people just get done with a long day of working and still want to talk about it. I even heard one guy mention the name "Sandler." First, you're a dork. Second, are you really sure you want to proud of attaching Sandler to a project these days? He hasn't been good since that movie with Damon Wayans.
I really have mentally catalogued about a billion things to write about, including this Nick Blackburn signing and everything, but I have no time. This sucks. No computer, stuck in a hotel in an area code where sports are over by 8pm? Seriously it's just after nine here and sports have been over for an hour. I've been stuck playing Texas Hold 'Em on my new phone. And I haven't even seen a celebrity yet. How can I seduce Natalie Portman back up to my room if I don't even see her? Actually I think I might have been in the same line at the rent-a-car place as some PGA golfer. He had nothing but golf clothes on and had some placard around his neck that said "PGA TOUR" and they are in California this week, but I didn't recognize him so at best he's somebody like Marc Leishman. Joy. Or he was just some poser, and I'm starting to think this is the Poser capital of the world.
Oh, and sorry for no Week in Review this week, but what am I gonna do? Believe me it is killing me to not be able to write. I can only assume it's much worse for you since you have nothing good to read while trying to kill time at your shitty job. Here's you short Week in Review:
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. All the teams who won bids. Except Wofford. Good lord the SoCon sucks. That Wofford/App State game tonight was an affront to everyone who likes basketball. No chance they win or cover in the tournament.
2. Those teams who did what they needed to. This would include St. Mary's, Seton Hall, Wake Forest, etc. The teams who needed who win to get in or stay in consideration. It's always nice when a team rises to the occassion. I wouldn't know what that is like.
3. My fantasy college hoops team. I won. Yes, I won the championship. Special thanks to John Shurna, who had a monster week for me, and also to Ralph Sampson, who my opponent had and who did nothing. Congratulations to me, the World Champion of the World.
WHO SUCKED
1. California. You people are weird.
2. All the teams who choked. This would include teams like Dayton, Illinois, and Minnesota. You had your chances and you've ruined them all at several different times. It saddens me that someone like Illionis is probably going to get in. If not them, someone with a simiarly shitty profile. But it's ok, because I have a real good handle on the tournament this year. If I don't win my pool, I'll be shocked.
3. Anyone who didn't watch that Siena/Fairfield game for the MAAC championship. That was a classic. Siena down 15, roars back, we get OT - just a great game to watch, completely different than the WCC final (and the WCC will be going 0-2 in the tournament, guaranteed). Siena is going to be a damn tough team to figure out. They really beat nobody this year and were behind in every MAAC tourny game, but they won every MAAC tourny game, and if you remember the NCAAs last year the same thing happened and they ended up beating Ohio State. I thought their zero big wins profile meant they weren't going to be able to do anything, but maybe that's just their MO. Very weird team.
4. Women's Basketball. I don't give a crap what UCONN women's basketball is doing unless we have some full contact nudity. Don't cut away from the last four minutes of the CAA championship to show me that crap. Title IV be damned.
Ok, I wrote all this in about 8 minutes so you can stuff your sorrys in a sack if there's a typo or a mistake. Captain Weirdo is his bowler hat and Trader Joe's sweatshirt is sweating me to get on a computer so he can email his mom about how somebody halfway looked at his script but he'll still be home in time for dinner. And he's like 40.
California is weird, dude. I see why Zack and Slater ruled this town.
I really have mentally catalogued about a billion things to write about, including this Nick Blackburn signing and everything, but I have no time. This sucks. No computer, stuck in a hotel in an area code where sports are over by 8pm? Seriously it's just after nine here and sports have been over for an hour. I've been stuck playing Texas Hold 'Em on my new phone. And I haven't even seen a celebrity yet. How can I seduce Natalie Portman back up to my room if I don't even see her? Actually I think I might have been in the same line at the rent-a-car place as some PGA golfer. He had nothing but golf clothes on and had some placard around his neck that said "PGA TOUR" and they are in California this week, but I didn't recognize him so at best he's somebody like Marc Leishman. Joy. Or he was just some poser, and I'm starting to think this is the Poser capital of the world.
Oh, and sorry for no Week in Review this week, but what am I gonna do? Believe me it is killing me to not be able to write. I can only assume it's much worse for you since you have nothing good to read while trying to kill time at your shitty job. Here's you short Week in Review:
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. All the teams who won bids. Except Wofford. Good lord the SoCon sucks. That Wofford/App State game tonight was an affront to everyone who likes basketball. No chance they win or cover in the tournament.
2. Those teams who did what they needed to. This would include St. Mary's, Seton Hall, Wake Forest, etc. The teams who needed who win to get in or stay in consideration. It's always nice when a team rises to the occassion. I wouldn't know what that is like.
3. My fantasy college hoops team. I won. Yes, I won the championship. Special thanks to John Shurna, who had a monster week for me, and also to Ralph Sampson, who my opponent had and who did nothing. Congratulations to me, the World Champion of the World.
WHO SUCKED
1. California. You people are weird.
2. All the teams who choked. This would include teams like Dayton, Illinois, and Minnesota. You had your chances and you've ruined them all at several different times. It saddens me that someone like Illionis is probably going to get in. If not them, someone with a simiarly shitty profile. But it's ok, because I have a real good handle on the tournament this year. If I don't win my pool, I'll be shocked.
3. Anyone who didn't watch that Siena/Fairfield game for the MAAC championship. That was a classic. Siena down 15, roars back, we get OT - just a great game to watch, completely different than the WCC final (and the WCC will be going 0-2 in the tournament, guaranteed). Siena is going to be a damn tough team to figure out. They really beat nobody this year and were behind in every MAAC tourny game, but they won every MAAC tourny game, and if you remember the NCAAs last year the same thing happened and they ended up beating Ohio State. I thought their zero big wins profile meant they weren't going to be able to do anything, but maybe that's just their MO. Very weird team.
4. Women's Basketball. I don't give a crap what UCONN women's basketball is doing unless we have some full contact nudity. Don't cut away from the last four minutes of the CAA championship to show me that crap. Title IV be damned.
Ok, I wrote all this in about 8 minutes so you can stuff your sorrys in a sack if there's a typo or a mistake. Captain Weirdo is his bowler hat and Trader Joe's sweatshirt is sweating me to get on a computer so he can email his mom about how somebody halfway looked at his script but he'll still be home in time for dinner. And he's like 40.
California is weird, dude. I see why Zack and Slater ruled this town.
Friday, March 5, 2010
More Conference Tournaments - 3/5
If you pay attention to my fantasy college hoops team and/or the comments when I sometimes write them, you know that I'm in a huge battle for the the world championship of fantasy college hoops and I needed Draymond Green to score 33 points last night to even the score with my opponent with ten games to go each. Well, he picked up exactly 33 (14 points, 9 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 steal), so we are tied with exactly ten games left to go. Barn freaking burner here folks. Saturday is going to be a huge day. Eight of my ten remaining games are Saturday, but he has only five of his dudes going, so I need to have a huge, huge Saturday. Root for me folks. You owe me that much.
In real basketball news, Seton Hall kept their dream alive with a win over Rutgers on the road, while Dayton couldn't do the same thing despite leading Richmond the whole game until there were five minutes left. The Hall still has work to do, while Dayton can now kick back and wait to see if they get a a one or a two seed in the NIT. Ole Miss also kept the dream alive, and with a quickly weakening bubble they are looking better by the day, as is Washington who knocked off Oregon on the road and is starting to look like they will give the Pac-10 two teams instead of just one.
In conference tournament news, Drake began their March towards a MVC tournament crown and surprise NCAA bid by knocking off Southern Illinois, and today will probably beat Northern Iowa and put them back on the bubble. And speaking of conference tournaments, these tournaments kick-off either today or this weekend:
COLONIAL: Similar to the Missouri Valley, the Colonial was the mid-major darling not long ago, highlighted by George Mason's improbable Final Four run, but has fallen off a bit. Also similar to the Missouri Valley the CAA has just one team in play for an at-large - Old Dominion.
FAVORITE: Old Dominion. The Monarchs are a legitimate threat thanks to their stingy defense (21st in D-efficiency), deliberate pace (299th in tempo), and balanced attack (six guys average between 7 and 15 ppg). They have already beaten Georgetown and Charlotte this year and hung right with Richmond and Missouri.
SLEEPER: William & Mary. There are a lot of good, not great, teams to choose from here, and VCU is probably better overall, but W&M is the type of team that is extremely dangerous if they get hot. The rely on the three a ton (5th most reliant on it in the NCAA) and if they get hot they can put teams down in a hurry, just ask Wake and Richmond who they beat this year.
W's PICK: Old Dominion. They are the best team, but it wouldn't surprise me to see them, W&M, VCU, or George Mason win this. The one upper division team you don't have to worry about is Northeastern - they're terrible.
MID-ATLANTIC: The real MAAC hasn't been as fun since Luis Flores graduated, but they do always seem to have one pretty good team whether it's been Manhattan, Niagara, or Siena over the past years. This year it is Siena once again, but this time the Saints haven't done enough for at-large consideration and will need to win the tournament if they're going to notch a first-round upset for the third season in a row.
FAVORITE: Siena. The Saints ran through the conference at 17-1 and with four scorers averaging 14-16 points per game to go with national assist leader Ronald Moore (7.7pg), this team is legit.
SLEEPER: Fairfield. The Stags weren't the team to give Siena their only MAAC loss (that was Niagara), but they were the only team to lose by less than 10 in both meetings with the Saints. That's pretty much the only positive I can find.
W's PICK: Siena. If they had shown they can beat a good team this year, I'd be thinking Sweet 16 for these guys. As it stands they were 0-4 this year against the RPI Top 50, which is why they need to win this thing to get to the dance as well as a pretty good reason to doubt them.
WEST COAST CONFERENCE: Blah blah blah Gonzaga blah blah blah.
FAVORITE: Gonzaga. Again. I loved their team last year and thought they had enough juice to knock out North Carolina, which they clearly didn't. I don't like them as much this year, but this is still a Sweet 16 type team.
SLEEPER: St. Marys. I don't know how much of a sleeper they are since I think everyone who falls college hoops to this level of detail is aware that they have been the Saliere to Gonzaga's Mozart for like fifty years. Of course, this year Gonzaga beat them in both matchups by an average of 15, so I don't know if they're really a threat.
W's PICK: Gonzaga. Outside of St. Mary's there isn't anyone else here who can even challenge them, and I don't think the Gaels pose much of a challenge. More like a puff of wind, really.
SUN BELT: Remember when South Alabama and Western Kentucky were both awesome? Well Courtney Lee and Taco Hawk have both graduated, so you can forget all about it.
FAVORITE: Troy. The Trojans grabbed the number one seed despite a tie atop the conference standings with North Texas and Middle Tennessee. I also don't know jack crap about them. They did beat Auburn earlier and their leading scorer, Brandon Hazzard, has a pretty cool name.
SLEEPER: Western Kentucky. It's not like the fell completely off the face of the earth, finishing fourth behind those other three clowns, and A.J. Slaughter is still here and was part of the Hilltopper teams that won three NCAA Tournament games the past two years. And his name is even cooler than Hazzard.
W's PICK: Western Kentucky. It just won't quite feel like an NCAA Tournament without the Hilltoppers. Plus they beat Vanderbilt earlier this year, so why not?
SUMMIT LEAGUE: Thankfully all those white little weiners from North Dakota State graduated so we don't have to hear about them as a sleeper and read 8 billion stories and be told we should root for them since they reside next door to Minnesota. The downside of course, is that I know almost nothing about the Summit League.
FAVORITE: Oakland. About the only thing I do know is that Oakland is good, and they have a pretty good player and probable future NBAer in junior center Keith Benson who is averaging a double/double this season. Although I really don't like how this Oakland is in Michigan. Too confusing.
SLEEPER: IUPUI. The second place team and only Summit team to beat Oakland this year.
W's PICK: South Dakota State. They finished fourth, hung with Oakland in both games, and the tournament is in South Dakota this year. The main reason to expect them to win, however, is because the media in Minnesota would pick up on it and beat it to death, thus killing my soul once again.
SOUTHERN: Davidson has fallen back into obscurity now that your favorite overrated player has graduated, but there's still a little intrigue here - just no at-large possibility or supremely overrated guard.
FAVORITE: Wofford. Not just because they have Minnesota boy and better brother Noah Dahlman. They are actually a pretty decent team who went 13-3 in the SoCon and beat both Georgia and South Carolina, and held their own against Michigan State and Pitt.
SLEEPER: College of Charleston. They snagged the headlines with their win over North Carolina, although that's looking less impressive by the day, and finished just a game back of Wofford. Plus they still have Bobby Cremins as coach so you can never count them out.
W's PICK: Wofford. They are battle tested after taking on some pretty good teams outside of conference play, they've won ten straight, and actually have an RPI just one spot behind your beloved Gophers. Kill me.
MID-AMERICAN: Doesn't it seem like the MAC should be better? I remember Kent State was pretty good a few years back, and Akron was a good team for the last few years, but when is the last time the MAC snagged an at-large bid?
FAVORITE: Kent State/Akron. Whichever team gets the number one seed would be the favorite since it's up for grabs. That's because these two teams play tonight and are tied atop the standings. The top seeds don't play until next Thursday, even though the opening rounds get going on Sunday.
SLEEPER: Western Michigan. The loser of tonight's game would be your most likely winner if it's not the favorite, but I'm going to give the Sleeper nod to WMU. They have David Kool, who not only has an awesome name but has also led the MAC in scoring for each of the past two years and was 4th the year before that. Sure, they were just 8-8 and they lost to both Akron and Kent State, but they hung tough in both those games, and they're just such a Kool team.
W's PICK: Akron. No matter what happens tonight, I'm picking the Zips. They got hosed big-time back in the Dru Joyce III/Romeo Travis days when they should have snagged at least one at-large bid, and then finally made it last season only to lose to Gonzaga. Four starters are back from that team, and I have a good feeling about this team. Because I know so much about them. Not making that up at all.
BIG SKY: I've always been a fan of the Big Sky, mainly because most of Mama W's family went to that school (as did she for a semester) and because I've been to a game at their arena. I also like this group because of Northern Colorado, because it's fun to say NoCo and also because one time in Chicago me, Bogart, Snake, and Dawger met some guy who played safety for them and he told us about how Colt Brennan shredded them for like 600 yards. Cool story, brah.
FAVORITE: Weber State. For what seems like the 20th year in a row the Wildcats won the regular season crown, which means if they lose in this tournament they get an auto-bid in the NIT, setting up a potential Minnesota vs. Weber State matchup. WORLD'S ARE COLLIDING!!
SLEEPER: NoCo. And not just for the reasons laid out above. The Bears finished one game behind Weber, beat them once, and also took out some mid-tier teams in San Jose State and TCU, and lost to Oklahoma by just one.
W's PICK: Weber. They are actually a pretty decent team who knocked off Utah and has an RPI in the top 100. Good a reason as any, I suppose.
In site news, I am starting a new job on Monday. What that means is that I have to give this laptop back and the end of the day, and I won't be getting my new one until Tuesday when I'm in California, so I won't be posting again until probably Tuesday evening. That also means you won't get a game recap from me for the Iowa/Gopher game. But you probably wouldn't get one anyway because I can't really come up with a reason to watch it. And if you really want a preview here it is:
These teams both suck. Prediction: Gophers 33, Iowa 14.
In real basketball news, Seton Hall kept their dream alive with a win over Rutgers on the road, while Dayton couldn't do the same thing despite leading Richmond the whole game until there were five minutes left. The Hall still has work to do, while Dayton can now kick back and wait to see if they get a a one or a two seed in the NIT. Ole Miss also kept the dream alive, and with a quickly weakening bubble they are looking better by the day, as is Washington who knocked off Oregon on the road and is starting to look like they will give the Pac-10 two teams instead of just one.
In conference tournament news, Drake began their March towards a MVC tournament crown and surprise NCAA bid by knocking off Southern Illinois, and today will probably beat Northern Iowa and put them back on the bubble. And speaking of conference tournaments, these tournaments kick-off either today or this weekend:
COLONIAL: Similar to the Missouri Valley, the Colonial was the mid-major darling not long ago, highlighted by George Mason's improbable Final Four run, but has fallen off a bit. Also similar to the Missouri Valley the CAA has just one team in play for an at-large - Old Dominion.
FAVORITE: Old Dominion. The Monarchs are a legitimate threat thanks to their stingy defense (21st in D-efficiency), deliberate pace (299th in tempo), and balanced attack (six guys average between 7 and 15 ppg). They have already beaten Georgetown and Charlotte this year and hung right with Richmond and Missouri.
SLEEPER: William & Mary. There are a lot of good, not great, teams to choose from here, and VCU is probably better overall, but W&M is the type of team that is extremely dangerous if they get hot. The rely on the three a ton (5th most reliant on it in the NCAA) and if they get hot they can put teams down in a hurry, just ask Wake and Richmond who they beat this year.
W's PICK: Old Dominion. They are the best team, but it wouldn't surprise me to see them, W&M, VCU, or George Mason win this. The one upper division team you don't have to worry about is Northeastern - they're terrible.
MID-ATLANTIC: The real MAAC hasn't been as fun since Luis Flores graduated, but they do always seem to have one pretty good team whether it's been Manhattan, Niagara, or Siena over the past years. This year it is Siena once again, but this time the Saints haven't done enough for at-large consideration and will need to win the tournament if they're going to notch a first-round upset for the third season in a row.
FAVORITE: Siena. The Saints ran through the conference at 17-1 and with four scorers averaging 14-16 points per game to go with national assist leader Ronald Moore (7.7pg), this team is legit.
SLEEPER: Fairfield. The Stags weren't the team to give Siena their only MAAC loss (that was Niagara), but they were the only team to lose by less than 10 in both meetings with the Saints. That's pretty much the only positive I can find.
W's PICK: Siena. If they had shown they can beat a good team this year, I'd be thinking Sweet 16 for these guys. As it stands they were 0-4 this year against the RPI Top 50, which is why they need to win this thing to get to the dance as well as a pretty good reason to doubt them.
WEST COAST CONFERENCE: Blah blah blah Gonzaga blah blah blah.
FAVORITE: Gonzaga. Again. I loved their team last year and thought they had enough juice to knock out North Carolina, which they clearly didn't. I don't like them as much this year, but this is still a Sweet 16 type team.
SLEEPER: St. Marys. I don't know how much of a sleeper they are since I think everyone who falls college hoops to this level of detail is aware that they have been the Saliere to Gonzaga's Mozart for like fifty years. Of course, this year Gonzaga beat them in both matchups by an average of 15, so I don't know if they're really a threat.
W's PICK: Gonzaga. Outside of St. Mary's there isn't anyone else here who can even challenge them, and I don't think the Gaels pose much of a challenge. More like a puff of wind, really.
SUN BELT: Remember when South Alabama and Western Kentucky were both awesome? Well Courtney Lee and Taco Hawk have both graduated, so you can forget all about it.
FAVORITE: Troy. The Trojans grabbed the number one seed despite a tie atop the conference standings with North Texas and Middle Tennessee. I also don't know jack crap about them. They did beat Auburn earlier and their leading scorer, Brandon Hazzard, has a pretty cool name.
SLEEPER: Western Kentucky. It's not like the fell completely off the face of the earth, finishing fourth behind those other three clowns, and A.J. Slaughter is still here and was part of the Hilltopper teams that won three NCAA Tournament games the past two years. And his name is even cooler than Hazzard.
W's PICK: Western Kentucky. It just won't quite feel like an NCAA Tournament without the Hilltoppers. Plus they beat Vanderbilt earlier this year, so why not?
SUMMIT LEAGUE: Thankfully all those white little weiners from North Dakota State graduated so we don't have to hear about them as a sleeper and read 8 billion stories and be told we should root for them since they reside next door to Minnesota. The downside of course, is that I know almost nothing about the Summit League.
FAVORITE: Oakland. About the only thing I do know is that Oakland is good, and they have a pretty good player and probable future NBAer in junior center Keith Benson who is averaging a double/double this season. Although I really don't like how this Oakland is in Michigan. Too confusing.
SLEEPER: IUPUI. The second place team and only Summit team to beat Oakland this year.
W's PICK: South Dakota State. They finished fourth, hung with Oakland in both games, and the tournament is in South Dakota this year. The main reason to expect them to win, however, is because the media in Minnesota would pick up on it and beat it to death, thus killing my soul once again.
SOUTHERN: Davidson has fallen back into obscurity now that your favorite overrated player has graduated, but there's still a little intrigue here - just no at-large possibility or supremely overrated guard.
FAVORITE: Wofford. Not just because they have Minnesota boy and better brother Noah Dahlman. They are actually a pretty decent team who went 13-3 in the SoCon and beat both Georgia and South Carolina, and held their own against Michigan State and Pitt.
SLEEPER: College of Charleston. They snagged the headlines with their win over North Carolina, although that's looking less impressive by the day, and finished just a game back of Wofford. Plus they still have Bobby Cremins as coach so you can never count them out.
W's PICK: Wofford. They are battle tested after taking on some pretty good teams outside of conference play, they've won ten straight, and actually have an RPI just one spot behind your beloved Gophers. Kill me.
MID-AMERICAN: Doesn't it seem like the MAC should be better? I remember Kent State was pretty good a few years back, and Akron was a good team for the last few years, but when is the last time the MAC snagged an at-large bid?
FAVORITE: Kent State/Akron. Whichever team gets the number one seed would be the favorite since it's up for grabs. That's because these two teams play tonight and are tied atop the standings. The top seeds don't play until next Thursday, even though the opening rounds get going on Sunday.
SLEEPER: Western Michigan. The loser of tonight's game would be your most likely winner if it's not the favorite, but I'm going to give the Sleeper nod to WMU. They have David Kool, who not only has an awesome name but has also led the MAC in scoring for each of the past two years and was 4th the year before that. Sure, they were just 8-8 and they lost to both Akron and Kent State, but they hung tough in both those games, and they're just such a Kool team.
W's PICK: Akron. No matter what happens tonight, I'm picking the Zips. They got hosed big-time back in the Dru Joyce III/Romeo Travis days when they should have snagged at least one at-large bid, and then finally made it last season only to lose to Gonzaga. Four starters are back from that team, and I have a good feeling about this team. Because I know so much about them. Not making that up at all.
BIG SKY: I've always been a fan of the Big Sky, mainly because most of Mama W's family went to that school (as did she for a semester) and because I've been to a game at their arena. I also like this group because of Northern Colorado, because it's fun to say NoCo and also because one time in Chicago me, Bogart, Snake, and Dawger met some guy who played safety for them and he told us about how Colt Brennan shredded them for like 600 yards. Cool story, brah.
FAVORITE: Weber State. For what seems like the 20th year in a row the Wildcats won the regular season crown, which means if they lose in this tournament they get an auto-bid in the NIT, setting up a potential Minnesota vs. Weber State matchup. WORLD'S ARE COLLIDING!!
SLEEPER: NoCo. And not just for the reasons laid out above. The Bears finished one game behind Weber, beat them once, and also took out some mid-tier teams in San Jose State and TCU, and lost to Oklahoma by just one.
W's PICK: Weber. They are actually a pretty decent team who knocked off Utah and has an RPI in the top 100. Good a reason as any, I suppose.
In site news, I am starting a new job on Monday. What that means is that I have to give this laptop back and the end of the day, and I won't be getting my new one until Tuesday when I'm in California, so I won't be posting again until probably Tuesday evening. That also means you won't get a game recap from me for the Iowa/Gopher game. But you probably wouldn't get one anyway because I can't really come up with a reason to watch it. And if you really want a preview here it is:
These teams both suck. Prediction: Gophers 33, Iowa 14.
Thursday, March 4, 2010
Well that sucked
Well yesterday certainly sucked. As you probably inferred from the post directly below this one, we had to put our kick-ass super awesome cat Merlin down yesterday. He was fine in the morning and near death in the evening due to some pretty serious health issues that suddenly popped up. You will be missed, good buddy. You will be missed.
On to the basketball, because life does go on, after all and there are bubbles and tournaments that need attention. The two biggest bubble games were the Memphis vs. UAB and UCONN vs. Notre Dame tilts, and the big winners were the Tigers and the Irish. The Memphis win puts them on the same level as UAB, both squarely in the middle of the bubble. They both close with tough C-USA matchups (Memphis vs. Tulsa, UAB @ UTEP) and then the C-USA Tourney. It's not hard to imagine a scenario with either both in, or both out. Notre Dame's big win assures them of at least a .500 record in the Big East, which might be enough to get them in, while UCONN is now 7-10 in conference play and looking very dicey.
Florida State and Rhode Island also picked up big wins (over Wake and Charlotte). FSU is in better shape than Rhodey (who will probably need to make the A-10 final or big up a big win in the tournament), Charlotte is done, and Wake is suddenly looking like a bubble team instead of a "lock" thanks to a four-game skid. They really need to win their finale at home against Clemson or the ACC tournament is going to become huge for them.
In the three other games with at-large implications Virginia Tech beat NC State, SDSU crushed Colorado State, and Mississippi State was upset by Auburn. The Hokies now have nine ACC wins with a game at Georgia Tech left on the schedule. If they pull that one out and get to ten wins it's going to be hard to keep them out, despite an empty computer profile. SDSU is still tracking to give the MWC four teams. BYU, New Mexico, and maybe UNLV are all pretty much in already and the Aztecs might need to pick one of them off in the MWC tournament. If that upset comes against UNLV things get very interesting between the two teams. Finally, the Bulldogs' loss to Auburn might have tossed them from the conversation, which sucks because I'd love to watch Varnado in the tournament. Oh, and I forgot St. Louis lost to Temple which kills their chances.
As usual during this week, there are a few conference tournaments kicking off today:
NORTHEAST CONFERENCE: Generally, year-after-year, the worst three conferences are the MEAC, the Independents, and the SWAC. This year the MEAC actually crept ahead of someone - the NEC. They were hurt by the addition of Bryant who went 1-29, but this is a bad, bad group of basketball teams. The days of Charles Jones and LIU are long gone.
FAVORITE: Quinnipiac. The Bobcats finished in a regular-season tie at the top of the NEC standings with Robert Morris, but get favorite status thanks to a better overall record and a win over RMU in their only regular season meeting.
SLEEPER: Mount Saint Mary's. The Mountaineers finished three games behind the conference leaders, but come into the NEC tournament with a ten-game winning streak that including wins over both Quinnipiac and RMU. I started to do some research to see why they got so hot in the last two months of the season, but then I remembered that this is the NEC and I've probably spent too much time on it already.
W's PICK: Quinnipiac. I almost went with Robert Morris since they won this thing last year, but QP leads the conference in scoring, rebounding, and field goal percentage. Should be enough to win.
MISSOURI VALLEY: Once the darling of the mid-major crowd, the MVC has fallen off the face of the earth and now has just one team with a shot at an at-large in Northern Iowa. Perhaps a great indicator of the drop is Southern Illinois at 6-12 in MVC play. Once the jewel (along with Creighton) of the MVC, years of sustained high-level play have come to an end, and most of the rest of the conference has followed.
FAVORITE: Northern Iowa. I actually think the Panthers are really overrated this year, but they won the conference regular season crown by three games and have an overall record of 25-4. Of course, those losses are to DePaul (RPI = 191), Bradley (107), Wichita State (51), and Evansville (243) and outside of wins over Siena and Old Dominion (and Wichita) there's nothing here. This is not a team that will pull an upset in the first round of the NCAAs. Trust me.
SLEEPER: Illinois State. They finished just 11-7 in the conference, but they might be the most talented team. They have the leading MVC scorer (Osiris Eldridge), rebounder (Dinma Odiakosa), field-goal percentage shooter (Odiakosa), and third-leading assist guy (Lloyd Phillips). They've won six of their last seven, and this same group has fallen just short of the NCAAs and ended up in the NIT the past two seasons.
W's PICK: Drake. Just for our very own Rockies guy. Plus they have that Josh Young guy, who is probably the best player in Iowa.
AMERICAN EAST: This isn't a highly rated conference by any stretch, but they do seem to produce teams that are tough outs in the tournament (Vermont, Albany). This year doesn't look like it will it will continue that trend, with no real good teams coming out of the AEC. Additionally, Binghampton, who had a chance to be a decent sleeper this week, has pulled out of the tournament due to the ongoing legal woes with the program.
FAVORITE: Stony Brook. They won the conference with a 13-3 mark and had a 5-1 mark against the other top teams.
SLEEPER: Maine. They finished in third and were the only upper-division team to beat Stony Brook.
W's PICK: Vermont. The Catamounts have the pedigree and, more importantly, have one of the best players most people haven't heard of in Marquis Blakely, a 6-5 senior forward who does it all for Vermont. I haven't actually seen him play (Vermont isn't on TV as much as you might think), but ranking second in scoring, rebounding, and field goal percentage and fourth in assists in the AEC is pretty impressive.
TONIGHT'S BUBBLE GAMES
Seton Hall @ Rutgers - The Pirates are still alive based almost solely on the fact that they are in the Big East, where at 7-9 they can still pull to .500, and that's a possibility with this game and than another one at Providence. If they can win the last two on the road and then do something in the Big East Tournament they have a good shot at a bid.
Dayton @ Richmond - The Flyers were supposed to be good, but instead find themselves clinging to life. A win would go a long way towards a bid, but a loss here probably ends the dream.
LSU @ Ole Miss - The Rebels have climbed back into the picture with a late two game winning streak and a quickly weakening bubble (also the reason Lunardi has the Gophers as the fifth team out right now, but don't hold your breath). Of course, like a lot of other teams right now a loss probably puts them out.
Washington @ Oregon - God the Pac 10 sucks.
USC @ Arizona State - Yep, still sucks.
RIP Merlin. If there's a cat heaven go ahead and give your Cat God a nice swipe of a claw for me.
And then kick him in his little cat nuts.
On to the basketball, because life does go on, after all and there are bubbles and tournaments that need attention. The two biggest bubble games were the Memphis vs. UAB and UCONN vs. Notre Dame tilts, and the big winners were the Tigers and the Irish. The Memphis win puts them on the same level as UAB, both squarely in the middle of the bubble. They both close with tough C-USA matchups (Memphis vs. Tulsa, UAB @ UTEP) and then the C-USA Tourney. It's not hard to imagine a scenario with either both in, or both out. Notre Dame's big win assures them of at least a .500 record in the Big East, which might be enough to get them in, while UCONN is now 7-10 in conference play and looking very dicey.
Florida State and Rhode Island also picked up big wins (over Wake and Charlotte). FSU is in better shape than Rhodey (who will probably need to make the A-10 final or big up a big win in the tournament), Charlotte is done, and Wake is suddenly looking like a bubble team instead of a "lock" thanks to a four-game skid. They really need to win their finale at home against Clemson or the ACC tournament is going to become huge for them.
In the three other games with at-large implications Virginia Tech beat NC State, SDSU crushed Colorado State, and Mississippi State was upset by Auburn. The Hokies now have nine ACC wins with a game at Georgia Tech left on the schedule. If they pull that one out and get to ten wins it's going to be hard to keep them out, despite an empty computer profile. SDSU is still tracking to give the MWC four teams. BYU, New Mexico, and maybe UNLV are all pretty much in already and the Aztecs might need to pick one of them off in the MWC tournament. If that upset comes against UNLV things get very interesting between the two teams. Finally, the Bulldogs' loss to Auburn might have tossed them from the conversation, which sucks because I'd love to watch Varnado in the tournament. Oh, and I forgot St. Louis lost to Temple which kills their chances.
As usual during this week, there are a few conference tournaments kicking off today:
NORTHEAST CONFERENCE: Generally, year-after-year, the worst three conferences are the MEAC, the Independents, and the SWAC. This year the MEAC actually crept ahead of someone - the NEC. They were hurt by the addition of Bryant who went 1-29, but this is a bad, bad group of basketball teams. The days of Charles Jones and LIU are long gone.
FAVORITE: Quinnipiac. The Bobcats finished in a regular-season tie at the top of the NEC standings with Robert Morris, but get favorite status thanks to a better overall record and a win over RMU in their only regular season meeting.
SLEEPER: Mount Saint Mary's. The Mountaineers finished three games behind the conference leaders, but come into the NEC tournament with a ten-game winning streak that including wins over both Quinnipiac and RMU. I started to do some research to see why they got so hot in the last two months of the season, but then I remembered that this is the NEC and I've probably spent too much time on it already.
W's PICK: Quinnipiac. I almost went with Robert Morris since they won this thing last year, but QP leads the conference in scoring, rebounding, and field goal percentage. Should be enough to win.
MISSOURI VALLEY: Once the darling of the mid-major crowd, the MVC has fallen off the face of the earth and now has just one team with a shot at an at-large in Northern Iowa. Perhaps a great indicator of the drop is Southern Illinois at 6-12 in MVC play. Once the jewel (along with Creighton) of the MVC, years of sustained high-level play have come to an end, and most of the rest of the conference has followed.
FAVORITE: Northern Iowa. I actually think the Panthers are really overrated this year, but they won the conference regular season crown by three games and have an overall record of 25-4. Of course, those losses are to DePaul (RPI = 191), Bradley (107), Wichita State (51), and Evansville (243) and outside of wins over Siena and Old Dominion (and Wichita) there's nothing here. This is not a team that will pull an upset in the first round of the NCAAs. Trust me.
SLEEPER: Illinois State. They finished just 11-7 in the conference, but they might be the most talented team. They have the leading MVC scorer (Osiris Eldridge), rebounder (Dinma Odiakosa), field-goal percentage shooter (Odiakosa), and third-leading assist guy (Lloyd Phillips). They've won six of their last seven, and this same group has fallen just short of the NCAAs and ended up in the NIT the past two seasons.
W's PICK: Drake. Just for our very own Rockies guy. Plus they have that Josh Young guy, who is probably the best player in Iowa.
AMERICAN EAST: This isn't a highly rated conference by any stretch, but they do seem to produce teams that are tough outs in the tournament (Vermont, Albany). This year doesn't look like it will it will continue that trend, with no real good teams coming out of the AEC. Additionally, Binghampton, who had a chance to be a decent sleeper this week, has pulled out of the tournament due to the ongoing legal woes with the program.
FAVORITE: Stony Brook. They won the conference with a 13-3 mark and had a 5-1 mark against the other top teams.
SLEEPER: Maine. They finished in third and were the only upper-division team to beat Stony Brook.
W's PICK: Vermont. The Catamounts have the pedigree and, more importantly, have one of the best players most people haven't heard of in Marquis Blakely, a 6-5 senior forward who does it all for Vermont. I haven't actually seen him play (Vermont isn't on TV as much as you might think), but ranking second in scoring, rebounding, and field goal percentage and fourth in assists in the AEC is pretty impressive.
TONIGHT'S BUBBLE GAMES
Seton Hall @ Rutgers - The Pirates are still alive based almost solely on the fact that they are in the Big East, where at 7-9 they can still pull to .500, and that's a possibility with this game and than another one at Providence. If they can win the last two on the road and then do something in the Big East Tournament they have a good shot at a bid.
Dayton @ Richmond - The Flyers were supposed to be good, but instead find themselves clinging to life. A win would go a long way towards a bid, but a loss here probably ends the dream.
LSU @ Ole Miss - The Rebels have climbed back into the picture with a late two game winning streak and a quickly weakening bubble (also the reason Lunardi has the Gophers as the fifth team out right now, but don't hold your breath). Of course, like a lot of other teams right now a loss probably puts them out.
Washington @ Oregon - God the Pac 10 sucks.
USC @ Arizona State - Yep, still sucks.
RIP Merlin. If there's a cat heaven go ahead and give your Cat God a nice swipe of a claw for me.
And then kick him in his little cat nuts.
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