Observe and Report

Although this movie looks like a prequel to Paul Blart Mall Cop, this movie is dark, twisted and sick. I would compare it to Bad Santa meets Requiem for a Dream. O and R was written and directed by Jody Hill who is best known for his HBO comedy series Eastbound and Down (if you haven’t seen this then I am sad for you because you are likely too poor to afford HBO and you are probably currently reading this blog at the local library because you are too poor to afford a computer and internet).

Seth Rogen stars as Ronnie Barnhardt, a bipolar mall security guard who appears innocent and harmless but has inner demons that would rival Mike Tyson’s. His miserable life, love of firearms and delusional self importance proves to be as combustible as a gasoline soaked building waiting for a lit match. You really want this guy to catch a break because he is beyond pathetic. You soon realize it will never happen because he is crazier then a Brittany Spears/Gary Busey lovechild. Once you come to this realization you eventually just kick back and wait for the train wreck to occur.

Some central themes of the movie include: excessive violence, lots of full frontal male nudity, date-rape (?), illicit drug use, beating up cops, getting beat up by cops, child abuse, racism, handicapism, alcoholism and last but not least Anna Ferris’ smoking hot body.

If you are looking for a light hearted, feel good comedy then I would stay very far away from this film. Go rent Dane Cook and listen to his 20 minute bit about saying God bless you (actual Dane Cook bit). If you like to be shocked, surprised, disgusted and humiliated then you will enjoy Observe and Report.

I give this film 4 red rockets

0 Red Rockets = Cut your eyes out before watching it
1 Red Rocket = Wait for it on TBS
2 Red Rockets = Red Box/Netflix it
3 Red Rockets = Blockbuster it
4 Red Rockets = Get your ass to the theater ASAP and pony up the $10.00.

Weekend Review

So who else is going to miss Travis Busch? Remember that one time when he fell on the floor? Or that other time when he ended up on the ground? Or the way he always fell down at every opportunity? Man, what a bummer. That Travis Busch, he do be hustlin.

WHO WAS AWESOME

1. Evan Longoria. The 2008 rookie of the year hasn't exactly slowed down, leading the majors after the first week of play with five home runs after hitting twenty-seven last year. He is also second with 10 rbi, and has blistered the ball at a .481/.481/1.185 clip - yes that slugging percentage is accurate and is also tops in the majors. In an era where it seems like more prospects flame out than produce (I'm looking your way Delmon), it's rare to see a kid like this shoot to the top of the league's best. When the Rays signed him to a lucrative five year deal when he was still in the minors it raised some eyebrows, but now it looks genius since they are only going to have to pay him $17 million over the next seven freaking years (assuming they don't re-work the deal). Seriously, he's only making $550,000 this year for that kind of production. Nice.

2. Roy Halladay. The first pitcher to get to two wins this year, Halladay shut down the Indians on Saturday, giving up just one run and five hits while striking out seven or seven innings. He was hurt by the long ball in his first start, giving up a couple of solo shots to the Tigers, which is why he has a less than impressive 3.86 ERA right now, but his 1.00 WHIP, .212 OBA, and 3-to-1 K/BB ratio says he is still a top pitcher again this year. And why not? The guy has been lights out every year he’s been healthy, finishing in the top five in the Cy Young voting the past three years and winning it in 2003 – and he had nine complete games last year, just to prove he’s a man’s man – all while playing for the crappy Blue Jays. I’m a big Halladay fan. It sickens me that he’s going to make $14 million this year and A.J. Burnett is going to make $16.5. So wrong.

3. Emilio Bonifacio & Josh Johnson. It’s ok if you haven’t heard of either of these guys, but they are pretty much the biggest two reasons the Marlins are currently 5-1 and sitting on top of the NL East. Bonifacio, who came over in a weird ass trade that the Nationals made for Josh Willingham, who is now their fourth outfielder, has absolutely been on fire and has really been a catalyst for the team. He's second in the NL in average, batting .500, and leads the league in steals with four already. He's also shown a bit of pop, with a double, triple, and inside-the-park home run mixed in there. He obviously can't keep up this pace, but if he can manage a three hundred average that trade is going to look worse than it already does.

As good as Bonifacio has been, Johnson has been even better on the hill for the Marlins. He's 2-0, and has posted an ERA of 0.57 (leading all two start pitchers) and a WHIP of 0.83. His last time out he out-dueled Johan Santana, pitching a complete game against the Mets, striking out seven while giving up just five hits and one run. Johnson returned in the middle of last season from Tommy John surgery and pitched well, coming into this season as kind of a sleeper in fantasy circles. I don't think anybody expected him to look this dominating though. With these two joining the group Florida put together, the Marlins are suddenly a threat to win the division.

4. Nick Swisher. Good with the A's, horrible with the Sox, and now suddenly Swisher looks reborn in pinstripes. He started the season as a backup for the Yanks, but after getting a start in the third game and killing the ball, he's started every game since and looks like an all-star, hitting .471/.550/1.118 with two home runs and 9 rbi. One of Swisher's best skills has always been his ability to work a count and take a walk (he's had more than 80 walks the past three years) and to hit for power, but he's never hit for a particularly high average - especially last year when he struggled to get over .200, finishing at .219 and leading the Sox to trade him. If he can add a high average to the power and the walks, look out.

5. Adam Lind. I’ve been pimping Travis Snider, who has been good at .286/.286/.643, but the real story for the Jays offense has been Lind, who is off to tremendous start in his third major league season. He leads the league in RBI with 12, and has crushed opponents' pitching to the tune of .400/.419/.767 with 3 home runs. If you hadn't heard of him that's ok, I had barely heard of. He was considered an elite prospect at one time, but failed to live up to that promise his first two years, failing to break a .760 OPS in either season. Is he now living up to the hype, or is this nothing more than a hot start that we can expect to fade? I don't know, but now he gets to come to the cozy Metrodome and face home run giving up machines Slowey, Perkins, and Baker and hit balls over the baggy, so his hot start will probably continue for at least another week.


WHO SUCKED

1. Minnesota Twins Offense. Uh oh, folks. You can’t explain all the team’s offensive troubles away by saying Mauer is missing, and it’s been ugly. Span has been awesome as a leadoff hitter (.419 OBP with 5 walks) and Nick Punto has been good (.353 BA with a .476 OBP), but that's pretty much it other than a couple of nice Morneau home runs. Delmon is hitting .133, Gomez is at .136, and Crede is at .160 as the team has more regulars hitting under .200 than over .300. Also I'm not sure if you are aware of this, but getting shut out twice in your first six games is not good. Once again, it doesn't seem to matter who is on the mound, good young pitchers (Felix Hernandez), old washed up pitchers (Bartolo Colon), injured pitchers (Erik Bedard), mediocre pitchers (Jarrod Washburn), or long-time nemesises (Mark Buehrle) they are getting shut down far too often already. Currently ranking in the bottom five in the league in average, OBP, and slugging, they will get a boost when (if?) Mauer returns, but some of these other guys need to turn it around in a hurry.

Lastly, if you saw Delmon's homerun yesterday it was a thing of beauty and a little preview into what he could become with a little more patience. He took two close pitches that were off the plate to get to a 2-0 count, and then hit the next meaty fastball over the middle out of the yard. If he can do that more often, maybe he can live up to his alleged tremendous potential.

2. Cliff Lee. Well it’s official, Cliff Lee sucks and I’m a moron – or even more of a moron than usual, I guess I should say. Lee lost again to drop to 0-2, and lost again in blowout fashion against Toronto on Saturday. Last year’s fluke pitched just five innings, giving up 7 hits and 4 walks on the way to giving up 4 earned runs. This now leaves Lee at 0-2, with a WHIP of 2.20 and an ERA of 9.90. I still don’t get it. How can a pitcher completely dominate for a full year, like Cliffy last season, and suddenly complete lose it just one year later? There’s nothing that says Lee should suck now, both his BABIP and LOB % last year weren’t fluky, completely weird numbers that deflated his ERA, but watching him pitch this year all of a sudden who the hell knows what’s going on. Glad I have him on two fantasy teams (actually, on one team my three top starters are Lee, Liriano, and Roy Oswalt – all 0-2 after this weekend). This also keeps the Indians in a bad way, sitting at 0-5 to start the year (they did win on Sunday to get to 1-5).

3. Tim Lincecum. The other Cy Young award winner from last season hasn’t had much success either. Unlike Lee, there weren't many questions about Lincecum. The only real issue was how many wins he would be able to pick up, considering the Giants are awful, but that his other stats should still be pretty good. Not the case thus far. The little guy lasted just three innings (a career low) in his opening day start against Milwaukee, giving up 3 runs, 4 hits, and 3 walks before getting pulled and looking generally unimpressive, and then followed that up on Saturday by giving up a career high 10 hits to go with three walks and four runs in just 5 and 1/3. Something is very much off right now, as he is fifth in the league with 14 hits allowed in just 8.1 innings, and has walked to many guys resulting in a 2.40 WHIP, the second worst number in the league amongst pitchers with two starts. I would expect him to rebound more than I would Lee, but neither have looked anywhere near their 2008 form thus far.

4. Cole Hamels. He’s still my boyfriend and all, but he certainly didn’t impress me in his first start since winning the World Series MVP, getting lit up by the Rockies to the tune of 11 hits and 7 earned runs allowed in just 3 and 2/3 innings pitched. He had a bit of an injury scare in Spring Training with a sore elbow, but it was supposed to be nothing more than elbow inflammation. Does this mean he’s hurt more than we think? It could be, especially since his fastball averaged just 87 mph in that game compared to his career average of 90. It’s something to keep an eye on, especially with Hamels poor history with injuries. If he’s hurt I might have to kill myself. Or just find a new obsession. Halladay looking pretty good these days.

5. Everyone in contention at the Masters. I could I suppose put Angel Cabrera in the awesome column for winning, but it really didn’t feel like anybody won the tournament as much as everybody lost it and Cabrera won by everyone else screwing up worse. The top two, Cabrera and Perry, both played half-assed throughout the tournament until Perry birdied 15 and hit an incredible tee shot at 16 to birdie again and get to -14 and a two stroke lead. He then proceeded to pull an Albany and shat all down his leg, bogeying the final two holes to drop into a three-way tie with Cabrera and Chad Campbell (who actually played at -3 on the day and based on his four days in Augusta probably should have ended up winning).

The playoff was even more of a choke-fest, with Cabrera in the woods, Campbell in the sand, and Perry chunking his approach shot. Perry and Cabrera saved par, but Campbell missed a short par putt to eliminate himself. On the final hole, Cabrera played well and Perry doinked his approach way off to the left of the green, giving Cabrera an easy win. It was pretty lame. Like watching Greg Norman and Steve Stricker battle down the stretch.

The most exciting part of the final round was watching Mickelson and Woods, who were grouped together, make a run up the leaderboard to get back into contention. Mickelson tied a Masters record with a 30 on the front side to get to -10 and just two shots back, but lost his mojo with a double bogey after hitting into the water at twelve, and ended up at +1 on the back to finish three shots back in fifth. Woods started more slowly, but turned it on after the turn, going three under on holes 13-16, also getting to -10. He then bogeyed the final two holes, however, to finish in a tie for sixth with John Merrick and Steve Flesch, and Steve Stricker.

So yeah, congrats Angel Cabrera on your second major win. It wasn’t the most impressive, but winning a war of attrition is still winning.


And that'll do it. Starting tomorrow, I'm going to attempt to do Daily Updates rather than weekly. Don't worry your pretty little head, they'll still be additional posts sprinkled throughout the week, hopefully with a little bit of Sidler Nerd Baseball talk, Dawger movie reviews and Gopher updates, and Snake hockey bits.

Some Stuff Quick

- Cry. Travis Busch is leaving the Gophers. The team declined to renew his scholarship, so Buschy is taking his ball and leaving which, with the graduation of Shamala, leaves the team dangerously low in the unathletic white guy department. The Daily Gopher reports that the Pioneer Press reports that Busch is getting interest from Winona State and Nebraska-Omaha, and I'm kind of surprised. I actually figured that his little hustle routine and pigmentless skin would have a higher profile team (like a Northern Iowa or Valpo) come calling, but it would seem not. Faith in the world slightly restored. Slightly.

- One of the things I'm most impressed with this early in the season is the improvement of Carlos Gomez's batting approach. His stats aren't staggering, but looking deeper (or even just watching him) you can see he's matured and made changes, and the Spring Training reports to that weren't just Spring fluff. Last season, according to fangraphs, Gomez swung at 36.8% of pitches thrown that were out of the strike zone, and so far this season he's only gone after 21.7%. He's even letting more balls in the zone go as well, swing at 58% of strikes this year compared 68% last season. Overall, he's swinging at just 34% of pitches this year, whereas last year he went after 53%. This is awesome, and should not only contribute to more walks and less strikeouts, but also to a higher batting average and slugging percentage as he stops going after pitches he can't hit. Excellent.

- Also excellent is Alexi Casilla turning the double play. I agree with The Fourth Strike that he and Punto might be the best double play combination in the league - fielding wise at least. Certainly not offensively, since Punto sucks and that honor pretty clearly goes to Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla in Florida.

- ESPN released their final list of the top 100 prospects, The ESPNU 100, for 2009. As you'd guess, two Gophers ended up in the top 100, with Royce coming in at #35 and Rodney at #42. According to this list, they end up being the #2 and #3 ranked freshman coming into the Big Ten for next season, since there isn't a whole lot of talent coming into the conference, behind just Indiana's Christian Watford at #34.

- Oh, and if you're wondering, last year Delmon Young swung at 39.9% of pitches out of the zone (fourth in the league) and this year he's so far gone after a whopping 60%, and overall has gone after a staggering 64% of pitches he's seen.

- Joe Crede just hit a home run in his first at-bat against the Sox. So awesome. Eat it, queers.

- The Masters is shaping up nicely, with a couple of surprises at the top of the leaderboard in Chad Campbell and Kenny Perry, with nearly all the big names in striking distance, including Furyk, Garcia, Kim, Singh, Ogilvy, Mickelson, Villegas, Westwood, Harrington, and el Tigre all within seven shots. Shaping up to be a fun weekend, although my new least favorite golfer in the world Zach Johnson won't be there after shooting a freaking 80 today. 80! Raymond Floyd is 66 years old and hasn't won on the Champions tour since 2000. There were only five rounds the entire first two days of the tournament worse. What a giant piece of crap. Thanks for sucking and making me look like an idiot.

- I have two movies queued up to live blog when I get a chance. The first is Shark Attack 3: Megalodon, which I have mentioned before and finally found again and Tivo'd, and The Sandlot 3, starring Dylan McKay which I can't wait to watch - it has to be better than Sandlot 2, which had girls playing ball for god's sake.

- Since baseball is harder to keep up with who is being Awesome and who is sucking in a given week, I'm considering going to a "Daily Review" every morning rather than just the weekly roundup. So that would mean daily content updates. Stay tuned.

- By the way, if you search this blog for "Shark" it returns 11 posts, only one of which references Greg Norman and zero of which reference the San Jose Sharks if they still exist. I may have a problem of some sort.

EDIT: Un-freaking-believable. I get my ESPN Streak for the Cash up to 10, and Phoenix gets beat by Memphis - and not only beat, they get rolled by 20. F that. Turns out Phoneix played their backups more than their starters. God that sucks.

The Masters Preview

Since we seem to lose all our golf guys (ok, maybe a golf post every week was a little excessive) I'm going to have to take the reins here for a preview of The Masters, which begins tomorrow. Don't worry, there will be plenty of Twins talk to come.





The Favorite: Tiger Woods. Obviously. Tiger would almost certainly have been the favorite no matter what happened his last time out, but winning at Bay Hill two weeks ago tells the world know that he is all the way back. If you had to choose between Tiger and the Field, who would you pick? The field, obviously, but you'd at least have to think about it.

The Top 10 Contenders:

1. Paul Casey. Yes, I consider Casey your best bet to knock off Tiger this week. He's only played in the US three times this year, but those include a win at the Shell last week and a runner up finish in the Match Play Championship. Add in a 10th and 11th at the last two Masters, and a made cut in eight straight majors, and I think he's the guy to watch out for.

2. Zach Johnson. He won here two years ago, but then followed that up with a pretty mediocre 2008. It looks like the Hangover has abated, with Joaquin Phoenix's double having a pretty nice 2009, with a win at the Sony Open and five top 17s on the year.

3. Retief Goosen. Probably the best golfer at the Masters to never win the tournament, Goosen has finished in the top 3 here four times, and his career finishes since 2002 are very impressive: 2, 13, 13, 3, 3, 2, 17. He seemed to be on the downslope of his career last year, but has seen a resurgence this season with a win already at the Transitions Championship and another top 3 on the resume. This could be the year he finally gets his green jacket.

4. Phil Mickelson. Can't put Lefty any lower than this, and it was a tough call putting him even this low. Mickelson is incredibly uneven at times, but there's no doubting his ability when he's on. He also loves this tournament, with two wins and a total of eleven top 10s in 15 tries as a pro. If that's not enough, he's already got two wins this year, including a WGC event. I'm starting to wonder why I put him fourth.

5. Padraig Harrington. Since Paddy won his second straight Major at the PGA last year, he had been in coast mode, missing the cut in the next two tournaments and not finishing in the top 50 until March this year. The good news for Paddy fans is that he seems to be rounding into shape, with a 20th, 11th, and 26th in his last three. With the last two majors under his belt, and a 7th and 5th in his last two trips to Augusta, Harrington might get one step closer to the Paddy Slam.

6. Geoff Ogilvy. Ogilvy, despite a bit of a final round collapse last week, usually thrives in big tournaments, with four of his six career wins being either Majors (1) or WGC Events (3). He's also playing well right now, with two of those six career wins coming this season already. He's never seriously contended at Augusta (career best T-16th), but he's also never missed the cut here.

7. Mike Weir. Do you remember that Weir won here in 2003? Me neither. I always forget that and then realize it right before the tournament, and then realize again that Weir is pretty damn good at Augusta, with four top 20s in five tries since he won. He's also playing solid golf so far this season, with zero missed cuts and two top 3 finishes.

8. Nick Watney. I'm as surprised as you are to see this kid on the list, but he's burst on the scene in a big way this year, and has probably been the most consistent golfer so far this year. Watney has a win at the Buick and two other top 5 finishes. In fact, Watney has finished in the top 25 in seven of his eight tournaments this year. This is his second trip to Augusta, and he proved last year that he can handle it, finishing in a tie for 11th place. Stranger things have happened.

9. Robert Karlsson. I didn't know this until I was looking up his majors record on Wikipedia, but apparently he has two nicknames: "Ivan Drago" and "The Scientist." How awesome is that? If you need more, Karlsson finished in the top 10 in three of the four majors last year, including 8th at the Masters, finished 20th in the other Major, and won the European Order of Merit (the commie Player of the Year). He's also looking good, coming into the tournament with a T-14 finish last week.

10. Brandt Snedeker. He's not exactly having the best year, with as many missed cuts as made so far, but I have a hunch about the 2007 Rookie of the Year, particularly after he finished 17th his last time out at the Arnie Palmer. Snedeker generally plays well in Majors that aren't the British Open, with two top tens last year including a T-3 at Augusta.


10 "Contenders" Who Have No Shot:

1. Sergio Garcia. This pains me. If you pay attention to the Golf posts I make round here, you know I love the Sergio, but it's not his year, at least not at the Masters. The sexy Spaniard hasn't done much this year, with just one finish in the top 30, and the Masters is not where he's going to turn it around, with three missed cuts in his last four attempts here.

2. Vijay Singh. One of the more obvious "big" names to put on the list, the big Fiji has really struggled this year coming off knee surgery in January. Since his return, he has missed three cuts and finished 53rd and 59th. The Masters is generally not a place where players return to form, and Singh's streak of 10 straight top 25 finishes here is in jeopardy.

3. Luke Donald. As long as we're talking injuries, let's talk Donald's wrist. Luke had wrist surgery and missed the second half of the season last year, and then had to withdraw from the Match Play Event due to wrist trouble again. He's played in two tournaments since then, and managed a top 20 at the WGC, but comes in with a MC at the Houston Open. He also missed the cut at Augusta last year.

4. Adam Scott. Here's another one who is trying to return from an injury, and not at all succeeding. Scott injured himself surfing last December (note: Surfing is stupid. You look like a seal from below. Sharks eat seals. Ergo, if you surf, sharks will eat you) and hasn't hit his stride in his return, coming into the Masters on the heels of missed cuts in his last two events. Considering he's never finished better than 25th here since 2003, I don't see this being his big return event.

5. Jim Furyk. I never thought there would be a tournament where I'd consider Furyk to not be a factor, but since a 3rd place finish at the last WGC event, he's played really poorly, finishing 52nd and missing the cut in his last two times out. In fact, in the last six rounds he's played he's only broken 70 once, and has carded two separate rounds of 78. Add in that he hasn't really contended at Augusta since 2003, and I don't think this is Jimmy's week.

6. Ernie Els. Unlike Goosen, who seems to have pulled himself out of a career decline, the same can't really be said for Els, who has won only once since 2004. It's not that he's playing terrible golf, but he just doesn't really seem to ever be a serious threat to win anymore, much less at a major. Particularly Augusta, considering he's missed the cut the past two years.

7. Anthony Kim. Remember when Kim was the next big thing? He was one of the hottest golfers last season, picking up two wins and finishing fourth in the Fed Ex Cup Playoffs. He started out hot again this year, with a second place finish in the first tournament of the year, but has really cooled since then with nary a top 25 finish to his name. Add in that this is his first trip to Augusta, and I'm not seeing it.

8. Stewart Cink. People like Cink. People like blood sausage, too. People are morons. I can't stand this guy. Sure, he finished 3rd last year at Augusta, but he's sucked all year, with a 24th place finish his best, has only won once since 2004, and generally chokes anytime he's in contention for anything except for biggest homo on the tour. Want more? He named his two sons Connor and Reagan, and has a twitter account or page or whatever it is. H-O-M-O.

9. Steve Stricker. Speaking of choking when the pressure is on, holy cow has Stricker had his hands around his throat this year. On paper, his three top fives already this year look great, but consider that he had the lead at one point in all three of those tournaments and gave it back. Google "Steve Stricker chokes" and you'll see a ton of hits. Sound like a guy who can handle the pressure of the final round of the Masters? Add in that he's missed the cut here in five of his eight tries, including his last three attempts, and you can rule him out.

10. Kenny Perry. The Dan Akroyd clone may have had a good year last year, but he did it playing only one round in a major: he didn't qualify for the Masters or the US Open (and didn't attempt to), declined to play in the British, and got hurt after one round at the PGA. Perry is playing well this year (four top-10s already) but his lack of success at Augusta (five missed cuts in 8 tries), unfamiliarity with the course and tournament (hasn't played in the Masters since 2005), and overall lack of Major experience (only played five rounds total in the last 8 majors) tell me to stay away.


THE WILDCARD:

- Rory McIlroy. If you pay attention to golf, you know who this is. If you don't, he's the next young challenger to Tiger Woods, or at least is being portrayed that way. He's a 19-year old kid from Northern Ireland, and has already risen to the #17 ranked golfer in the world rankings. He already won in Dubai earlier this year, and finished 5th at the Accenture Match Play to go along with three other top 20s in the states. Simply put, he's young, he's untested in a Major, and by all rights shouldn't be in contention. However he's played well this year under pressure, seems completely unflappable and in control at all times, and is supremely talented. Really, I have no idea how to place him. I had him in both the Top Contenders and Players With No Chance categories at different points when I was thinking about this. Nothing would shock me.


There you have it. As a reward, here's a fun little picture of Natalie Gulbis:

Spring is Here...

Ok so since we last saw each other Ogilvy won the match play just as I predicted, Goosen took his new spectacles through the winners circle, Phil won his first WGC event, Sean O’Hair gave Tiger his first win of the year and in between golfers won other tournaments.

This week however everyone sets their sights on Augusta, GA to the year’s first major. College madness is over, three quarters of the NBA and NHL teams are waiting to start the playoffs and the baseball season is just underway so now is the perfect time to focus on one of sports greatest stages. If you find a way to get away from church and hunting for eggs this weekend you are going to be treated to some great golf, no matter who ends up winning there has not been a real blow out since Tiger in 1997 so look for a spot on the couch come Sunday and make sure to tune in by the time the last group gets to 10, because as you may have heard the Masters does not start until the back 9 on Sunday.

You may wonder why things seem different about this golf tournament, well it is because the organizers and the members have a great reverence for the game, that, and they have a shit ton of money. They like to say “patrons” not fans or spectators, they’ve kicked out CBS commentators for life for making comments about the greens being fast, like they had bikini wax on them (McCord is still kicking himself) and once when they were challenged by some women’s lib dyke Martha Burke and it looked like their sponsors could be harmed they came out and said they could support the tournament without sponsors for at least 20 years. Martha went away, sponsors came back and the tournament lost nothing in reputation.

Enough about history and trivia, lets get to the players and who has a chance, who looks like they do and who wont win this weekend.

The Top 5 that Could:

Tiger - Duh, but really if you watched his win at the API he really didn’t win. His timing looks off, his driving was very erratic and until the last hole he didn’t make that many putts. All that said he is still Tiger and this is still Augusta and he is still Tiger; look for him to be there on Sunday.
Phil – He has 2 of the last 5 green jackets, he is coming off a missed cut so he got some extra time at Augusta and he is T9 in putts per GIR so he is converting chances, if he keeps the ball somewhat near the fairway this week he will be there on Sunday.
Harrington – You cannot keep this guy out of the conversation; ummm raise your hand if you have a chance for three majors in a row…OK just Paddy. I think he may be closer to those “that could but wont contend” but I just think he will find a way to push through and make some type of charge. A T5 and T7 the last two years and tack on a T13 in 2004 tells me he knows his way around.
Paul Casey – Wouldn’t say he is coming in hot, since he won with a bogey last week but he is coming off his first PGA tour win and he also has success in the past here T10, T11 and T6 last year, 2007 and 2004 respectively. The key this year however is he has found something in his putting, he doesn’t have enough rounds played on tour to count in the stats but he is leading in putts per round, that will help him this weekend.
Robert Karlsson – This was a tough pick, but I truly think Karlsson is ready to make a splash. He hits a lot greens but it will come down if he can get streaky with the putter, he is not great with the putter week in and week out but if he catches fire watch out.

5 that Could but Wont:

Kim – Pains me to say this but the awesome next Tiger contender from last year has turned into a money chasing country jumper. He has not played two weeks in a row on Tour partly due to injury but mostly due to travel, he will not have enough to contend in his first Masters.
Ogilvy – Again, great player but Aussies don’t win at Augusta, I don’t know why its just a rule.
Sergio – Listen, missed 3 of the last 4 cuts and hasn’t registered a top 10 all year, I cant even remember seeing him play all that often here or abroad.
Rory McIlroy – No not Roy McAvoy the guy that kept hitting 3WD into the drink at the US Open playing with Crockett, Rory is 19 and Europes next white hope. There is a ton of hype around this kid and for good reason but there is no chance he even puts up a top 10 but just remember the name he could win more majors than Faldo by the time he hangs it up.
Villeges – I so hope he plays well because he is fun to watch but it’s his first time here and its just not going to happen. Monday-Wednesday this week weather wise is nothing like it is going to be TH-SUN so he will be looking at a totally different course, its just not going to happen.

No Chance:

Adam Scott – Way too busy banging Kate Hudson and falling off surf boards to care about golf.
Tim Clark – He won the par 3 competition, no winner has ever won the Masters in the same year, sorry Tim, nice ace though.
Anyone from Australia except Norman
Mike Wier – Former champ, great, not coming close ever again.
Ian Poulter – Where have you gone? At least he will look good while playing.

Darkhorses-Couples, Norman, Watney, Singh and Westwood.

I am leaning towards Phil making a run but I would love to see Norman or Couples make a run just one more time, anyway it ends up I will be happy this is the greatest event in sports in my opinion and its not just that the beers are 2 bucks, there is only 4 minutes of commercials for every hour on TV but it’s the history around every corner and it’s the biggest event that comes back to the same course every year. Sit back and enjoy, I think I will be back naxt week to recap then off till the US Open or whenever.

Faldo

PS--Sorry didnt proof cant imagine any of the readers reading at higher than a third grade level anyway so whatever. I did manage to include some page breaks though.

Weekend Review

WHO WAS AWESOME

1. Ty Lawson. I could just put the whole UNC team here after an incredible run through the NCAA tournament where they were never really challenged, but I want to recognize Lawson because I've dogged him pretty good in the past. He's really made a huge leap in his point guard play from last year. He's still not the best shooter, although he's getting better (shot 50% from three in the tournament) but he's figured out how to completely take over a game from the point position without having to score, and he did it again last night, culminating in the Final Four MVP award (I assume, I didn't look it up). Lawson really elevated his game in the tournament, outdoing his season averages in scoring, rebounding, stealing, and assisting while turning it over less. I don't usually change my mind about a player - ever - but this is a rare exception. Congrats to the Heels, and thank god we don't have watch/hear about Hansbrough anymore.

2. Derek Lowe. I think I described Lowe signing with the Braves using words like retread and patchwork, and might even have thrown a washed up in there, I don’t remember for sure. In any case, Lowe proved me wrong in the Braves’ 4-1 opening day win over the defending champion Phillies (who trotted out Greg Myers instead of Cole Hamels for some reason that I don’t want to look up). Lowe was masterful, going 8 innings and only allowing 2 hits, naturally walking nobody and striking out four. When Lowe is on, he does exactly what he did on Sunday night – doesn’t strike out many, but walks zero and gets a lot of ground balls (the Phillies hit 13 ground balls compared to 7 in the air). I’m not quite ready to start believing in Atlanta, because I still think Javier Vazquez sucks, but it looks like Lowe might have at least one quality season left in him.

3. NY Mets Bullpen. The biggest reason for the Met collapses the past two years have een their shitty bullpen, culminating last year in the most blown leads in the entire major leagues. Instead of standing pat and signing some journeyman and pretending like it’s going to help (cough, cough) they went out and did something about it. They signed single-season save record holder Francisco Rodriguez away from the Angels to close, and then helped their middle relief by making a trade for Seattle closer J.J. Putz, also getting set up man Sean Green in the deal. On Monday, that paid off, as the three new acquisitions combined to toss 3 and 1/3 innings of scoreless ball, giving up just one baserunner and striking out two, giving Johan Santana the win. It is probably pretty awesome to have a GM who actually will do something.

4. Travis Snider. As bad as my call on Cliff Lee looks right now (more on that later), my call on Snider as AL ROY looks just as brilliant. Snider was one of the top prospects in baseball for the last couple of years, and looked the part when he was called up by Toronto at the end of last season, hitting .301/.338/.466 with 2 homers in 79 at bats. Yesterday, he started his ROY campaign with a bang, going 2-4 with a solo homerun off Tiger ace Justin Verlander. Keep an eye on this kid.

5. Felix Hernandez. I could just have easily put the Twins' offense in the who sucked column instead, and specifically Mike Cuddyer who struck out three times against Hernandez and pretty much looked overmatched (yes he had a hit and an rbi, but it was not pretty and leaving three guys on base negates that). Instead, I'll let the optimism flow for a bit longer, and credit The King with an excellent outing. He's been a bit of an enigma in his short career, bursting on the scene as a rookie in 2005 and looking awesome, then regressing a bit the last three years, being a good pitcher, but not living up to the promise he showed that first half season. That being said, he's as talented as anybody throwing the ball, and maybe this is the start of the year he puts it all together. Or maybe the Twins' offense is as bad without Mauer as I feared. If they can't get anything going against Bedard tonight, it's time to worry.


WHO SUCKED

1. A.J. Price. Before the MSU/UCONN game tipped off, Bogart, Snake, and myself were at the Dayton bar and were discussing who would be on our all-tournament team so far. I picked A.J. Price as one of my guards, which I suppose doomed him to his horrid performance against the Spartans. Price’s numbers were bad enough, 5-20 shooting, 2 turnovers and just one assist, but watching him play was even worse. Adrien and Thabeet were really able to dominate the Spartan big guys inside, but Price continually decided not to get them the ball, and instead insisted on trying to bull his way into the lane and kept forcing up some brutally bad shots. I think he was just trying to draw fouls and get to the line, but the refs were calling the game Big Ten style and he just looked like a fool. When he wasn’t busy looking like an idiot, he was lazily walking around the three point line – I seriously watching him an entire UCONN possession where he never even moved as fast as a jog. Just a really horrible game and effort from a guy who was having a good tournament that cost his team the game – yes, I am blaming the UCONN loss entirely on Price.

2. Cliff Lee. A lot of people looked at Cliff Lee’s incredible numbers last year and decided he had to have been a fluke. A lot of people figured a mediocre pitcher couldn’t suddenly make the leap Lee made to win the AL Cy Young award last year and then keep it up, and he’d come crashing back to earth. They saw his 1.10 WHIP (vs career of 1.31) and 2.54 ERA (career = 4.1) and his 5.0 K/BB ratio (career = 2.5) and figured it was an aberration. Not me. I was convinced his pin point control and cerebral approach was more Greg Maddux-like, and he’d sustain this success. Once again, I’m an idiot. Lee got completely rocked by Texas yesterday, barely getting himself out of the fifth and finishing with a line of 5ip, 10 hits, 1 walk, and 7 earned runs given up, including a three-run homer by Hank Blalock. I drafted him in two fantasy leagues where people were avoiding taking him, assuming he would suck this year. Looks like they were right and now I’m screwed.

3. C.C. Sabathia. The Yankees' big, fat, offseason pickup, Sabathia got rocked yesterday by the lowly Orioles to the tune of 4 and 1/3 innings, 8 hits, and 6 earned runs. It wasn't so much those numbers that are scary, although they are, but even worse, Sabathia walked 5 and struck out nobody. Not a single one. For a pretty good strikeout pitcher throughout his career, that's warning sign number 1. Warning sign number 2 was the way the game unfolded, if you watched. The problem was that he couldn't get his fastball by anybody. The batters he faced were always able to at least foul it off, and once they realized they didn't need to be scared of the heater, they were able to lay off his slop slider he usually uses to get batters to chase, leading to the five walks. It's early, obviously, but after one game this is a bad sign for the Yanks.

4. Jason Motte. If you play fantasy baseball, you know that one of the toughest categories to figure out is saves. Not only are you never really sure when to draft the closers, but only a handful of teams have a real, established guy who you know will be in the role all year, so you're always looking for someone you can draft late. When Motte dominated his way through spring training and was anointed the Cardinals closer, it was a boon to those who pay attention to these kind of things. Most people don't know who he is, so he was available pretty late and it sounded like not only was he basically given the closer role for the year, but that he would dominate. Oops. Motte came into yesterday's game against the Pirates looking to shut the door with a 4-2 lead. By the time he finally got out of the top of the ninth, the Pirates led 6-4, and Motte had given up four hits and four earned runs to earn the loss and blown save. Perhaps he wasn't as huge a late steal as I (and many others) anticipated. Sorry Bogart.

5. Chris Allen. I can't bring myself to put the Spartans here as a whole, since they beat two #1 seeds just to get to this position, even though they turned it over 21 times and generally gave themselves no chance to win last night, but I can single out one player who had an awful final four, and that's the most dangerous player in the Big Ten, Chris Allen. Allen, who can usually score ten points in about 30 seconds if you aren't paying attention, couldn't hit anything in the final two games, going a combined 1-14 from the floor in the two games, including 0-9 from three, wrapping up a tournament where he shot just over 25% from the field. Of course, this will probably just make him angrier and he will end up being the runner-up for Big Ten Player of the Year next season (JaJuan Johnson has that one in the bag).


Finally, in case you missed it, I'll leave you with One Shining Moment from last night. Yes, it's already on line.



God I love that.

Place Holder: Weekend Review

Weekend Review isn't ready because thanks to stupid Chicago weather, our plane was delayed last night for several hours and we didn't get back home until almost midnight. I plan to post the Weekend Review tomorrow morning instead. It will be better this way, because then i can include the basketball championship and the first Twins game in the write up.

Until then..

Quick MLB Preview

Is it ok if I'm already kind of bored with the Final Four. I don't find anything compelling. UNC is lame. Michigan State is boring. Villanova is infuriating. I guess UCONN is ok. So I'll pick UCONN over UNC in the final. See? Boring. If you really want some hoop talk, check out this thread over at the Gopher Hole where I'm having a "discussion" about Stephen Curry.

Instead, I'll do a quick little preview of MLB this year, since the season kicks off on Sunday:




NATIONAL LEAGUE:

NL EAST
1. Phillies - A very good offense bolstered by one of the best pitchers in the game and my boyfriend, Cole Hamels. Blanton or Myers need to come up big, and not having JC Romero for the first 50 games will sting. Look for rookie J.A. Happ to make his mark.
2. NY Mets - No, JJ Putz and K-Rod won't be saviors, but they will help quite a bit. Where they can't help is the rotation, which is very shaky after Johan and also includes Livan. No way can I pick a team to win their division when Livan is involved.
3. Marlins - I don't know who the GM is in Florida, but he's quietly assembled some real talent. They have a very good, young rotation with Nolasco, Johnson, Sanchez, Miller, and Volstad, and the best offensive double-play combo in baseball with Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla. The future is bright, with 1B Gaby Sanchez about to make a splash, at least until they trade all their stars again.
4. Braves - In general, it seems people are high on the Braves to return to prominence this year, but I don't see it. A patchwork top of the rotation (Lowe & Vazquez) and much after them. Rookie pitcher Tommy Hanson could be good this year, but may be a year away.
5. Nationals - Expansion is awesome. SP Jordan Zimmerman is a glimmer of hope. At least they have Adam Dunn now, who is entertaining to watch if nothing else.

NL Central
1. Cubs. Chicago have a very good rotation this year, almost identical to last year's, and upgraded their offense by bringing in OBP Monster Milton Bradley. If he can stay healthy and out of trouble he'll score a ton of runs with the guys behind him. Closer is a question mark with newly acquired Kevin Gregg beating out Carlos Marmol.
2. Reds - Another young team I'm enamored with, an offense Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, Jay Bruce, and Edwin Encarnacion (and maybe Chris Dickerson if he's ready) can score some runs. They also have a solid rotation mix of vets (Arroyo and Harang) and youngsters (Cueto and Volquez - maybe Homer Bailey). I expect them to surprise.
3. Brewers - If Gallardo is over his injuries, it's a huge shot in the arm for the Brew Crew. Their offense is very good, but without Sabathia and Sheets the pitching sucks (Jeff Suppan!) and I don't know if you can trust Hoffman to close anymore.
4. Cardinals - An even worse starting rotation lives in St. Louis, and that's even if you guess Chris Carpenter can return to form after an injury - if he doesn't, forget it. Pujols and a handful of good outfielders are all they have.
5. Astros - It's a tough division to call, and really the teams could fall in any order after the Cubs, but someone had to be picked for fifth and I am going with the Astros. They're old, their infield is terrible, and their rotation is empty behind Oswalt.
6. Pirates - The good news for Houston is they don't have to worry about finishing in last. Pittsburgh has that rare ability to not only fail to find promising prospects, but to rarely develop them to their full potential when they do turn one up.

NL West
1. Diamondbacks - An exciting young offense, headed by a guy I expect to make a big leap in OF Justin Upton, two of the best pitchers in the game in Dan Haren and Brandon Webb, and a possible rookie-of-the-year candidate in pitcher Max Scherzer have me excited for Arizona this year.
2. Dodgers - The late signings of Manny Ramirez and Orlando Hudson help immensely and have made LA a popular pick to win their division, but there are too many question marks for me. How good are Kemp, Ethier, and Loney? Is Chad Billingsley really an ace? Can Jonathan Broxton be a shut-down closer? Just too many questions, although it wouldn't surprise me if they win the whole thing, either.
3. Giants - Almost a default third place pick, because the final three teams in this division are all pretty awful. San Fran gets third because of a decent rotation, highlighted by a couple of studs in Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain and the signing of Randy Johnson. The offense has youngster Pablo Sandoval and that's about it.
4. Rockies - Well, they have a somewhat promising lineup with youngsters Tulowitzi, Ian Stewart, Chris Iannetta, and possibly Carlos Gonzalez who came over in the Holliday deal. The pitching is brutally bad.
5. Padres - They have Jake Peavy and Chris Young. End positives. Seriously, their starting double-play combination this year is likely to be David Eckstein and Luis Rodriguez (yes, that L-Rod). Wow.


AMERICAN LEAGUE

AL East
1. Rays - A full season from Longoria, a breakout year from Upton (believe it) and adding David Price to an already good rotation? They might be even better this year.
2. Red Sox - Say what you want about Manny, but Jason Bay isn't nearly as good. With Ortiz seemingly on the decline, the offense doesn't have nearly as much pop as the last few years. Good young players and excellent pitching insures they will be in the playoff picture, but I don't think they are nearly as good as the Rays.
3. Yankees - A-Rod is still one of the best players in the game and Texeira can hit, but behind them it's all old and declining (Jeter, Posada, Damon, Matsui) or young and unproven. With a very old and injury prone rotation, this team won't even come close to the postseason.
4. Blue Jays - Not a horrible team, with some good offensive prospects including ROY candidate OF Travis Snider, Toronto could threaten to overtake the Yankees if their rotation of people I've barely heard of behind Halladay (thanks to injuries to Shawn Marcum and Dustin McGowan) can pull it together.
5. Orioles. Adam Jones is good, and Matt Wieters is supposed to be the next Joe Mauer, but with more power. That's all.

AL CENTRAL
1. Twins - As the Monkees said, "I'm a believer." Of course, this assumes Mauer and Baker come back quickly. The pitching and defense should be very good, as long as they can score some runs.
2. Indians - I very much like what they've done, adding some small, key pieces, and I don't think Cliff Lee's season last year was a fluke. If either Hafner comes back strong or Matt LaPorta can be Evan Longoria, they could overtake the Twins.
3. White Sox - Chicago still has plenty of pop, although most of it is old, and their rotation is the same thing we've seen for years. Question marks in the outfield (DeWayne Wise) and infield (Josh Fields and Chris Getz) keep them in third.
4. Royals - Added some nice pieces in Juan Cruz, Mike Jacobs, and Coco Crisp without losing much. If hitters Billy Butler and Alex Gordon and the young pitching staff live up to their potential, the Royals could finish even higher. Joakim Soria is quietly one of the best closers in baseball.
5. Tigers - I'm still not exactly sure what happened here, but with Detroit neglecting to give Jim Leyland an extension I'm not sure what exactly they are trying to do. Their offense should be good again, but with Bonderman hurt their pitching sucks once again, all the way down to the bullpen. Rick Porcello could be a star someday, but he's no savior this year.

AL WEST
1. Angels - because someone has to win. The Angels have the only decent pitching rotation in the division, even with Lackey and Santana starting the season on the DL, and are bringing in promising rook Nick Adenhart. There offense should be good enough to replace Texeira, especially if Kendry Morales is as good as promised.
2. Texas - As usual, the Rangers bring an excellent offense and horrible pitching to the table. This year is more of the same.
3. Mariners - Completely dysfunctional, Seattle at least has Felix Hernandez and Erik Bedard. Their best prospect, DH/C Jeff Clement who would probably hit fourth for them, is starting the season in AAA for some unfathomable reason.
4. Athletics - Bringing in Giambi and Holliday will probably not be enough to get the worst offense in baseball last year up to competitive shape, especially since they're pulling Holliday away from Coors so his numbers are sure to go down. With no good starters (Duchscherer is hurt) and an unproven closer, they're screwed.

AL Champ: Rays
AL Rookie of the Year: Travis Snider, TOR
AL MVP: BJ Upton, TB
AL Cy Young: Francisco Liriano

NL Champ: Diamondbacks
NL Rookie of the Year: Tommy Hanson, ATL
NL MVP: David Wright, NYM
NL Cy Young: Dan Haren, ARI

World Series: Rays over D-Backs


So there you go. Now I'm off to Chicago for the weekend, no computer in hand, so I'll talk at you on Monday.

Book Recommendation: When March went Mad

As I mentioned briefly in a prior post, I recently finished reading When March Went Mad, and I couldn't recommend it more highly. It is written by Seth Davis of SI.com and CBS fame, and takes a look at the 1979 NCAA Basketball Championship between Magic Johnson and the Michigan State Spartans and Larry Bird and the undefeated Indiana State Sycamores - still the highest rated NCAA Basketball Championship game ever.

Davis doesn't just cover the game, however, or just the two main stars. He goes into great detail covering just about every game the two teams played during the season. He chronicles the ups and downs, last second wins, and tough losses (well, not in the Sycamores' case) in detail. He also gets the perspective of anybody and everybody involved in these teams' dream seasons. From secondary stars on the teams, to the head and assistant coaches, to fans, to the last man on the bench. There is no angle left uncovered here.

The depth of his storytelling is also impressive. We learn not only about how good Larry Bird was, but also about his sometimes inappropriate sense of humor, and his painful desire to stay out of the spotlight, so much so that after leaving Indiana he worked on a garbage truck and had no interest in going to any college, including Indiana State. It was his grandmother who invited the ISU coaches into her kitchen to talk to Larry and helped convince him to go - who knows what would have happened without her. And this is just one example of the behind the scenes stories Davis uncovered for this book.

When March Went Mad really covers it all. From the recruitment of Bird and Magic to their respective colleges, to the years leading up to '78-'79, to the magical season itself, their first meeting (and Bird's brush off of Magic's handshake), to the championship game itself and ending with a nice "where are they now" style roundup of many of the people we meet throughout the book, it's truly a thorough look at the game and people who launched college basketball from afterthought to main event.

If you enjoy Feinstein's college basketball books, this is in a similar vein (although Davis does a better job of keeping himself out of the story), and I highly recommend it to any college basketball fan, or really any basketball fan at all.

Delmon vs. Denard - or random bastardization of data

There's Delmon Young missing another catch.

This post doesn't have much of a point. I've had a couple of gin & tonics (WWWWWW, please note--no fruit juice) and I'm getting fired up that the Twins might have a defense that lives up to the hype this year. A good defense does not include Delmon...

After reading this post at USS Mariner about when, if ever, Ken Griffey Jr. should play in the outfield instead of the plus-defender Endy Chavez, I thought about the LF situation for the Twins--Delmon vs. Denard.

Instead of recreating the wheel, and owing to the fact that Dave and DMZ at USS Mariner are smarter than me, I'm just going to borrow their data. Follow the link if you want the details, but all MLB teams fell between 1,463 and 1,732 fly balls last year and 27% of those went to LF.

Since the Twins have three extreme fly ball pitchers, I'm going to estimate 1,700 for them this season. Twins pitchers gave up 183 HRs in 2008, so let's go with 180 this year--1,520 catchable fly balls for the outfielders. 27% of that total gives Twins left fielders 410 opportunities.

Again borrowing from USS Mariner, a really good defensive LF will get to 80-85% of chances and a bad one will be around or below 70%. Obviously Delmon isn't the good defensive outfielder of the two...

Over the course of the season, using a 70/80 split translates to Denard creating an additional 41 outs with his glove. USS Mariner says that each flyball out is 0.9 runs prevented.

Using that calculation, Denard's defense is worth about 37 runs compared to Delmonstrosity's rollerskating in LF.

I'm finally getting to my point--what kind of offense can Delmon provide to make up the 37 runs he gives up in the field?

That's about the difference between Delmon and Ryan Braun last year.

Granted, that's an extreme example since LF isn't going to be an either/or situation. Both players are going to see time in the field.

But despite a less-than-Spantastic spring for Denard, I don't see Delmon being that much better at the plate, even if he's platooned. I'm just hoping the Twins can minimize Delmon's damage in the field; keeping him off the field for Baker and Slowey starts is a good, easy way to do that.