As you may or may not know, the U.S. Open is tomorrow at Pebble Beach. I usually do a preview of some sort for the golf majors, but that sounds boring. Instead, I took a look at the odds to win as offered by a website that caters to people who are interested in that sort of thing. Much like I picked the winner of the Kentucky Derby and nearly picked the winner of the Belmont (my pick finished second), I'm going to give you a few good value bets here, and odds are one of these guys will be the winner.
Hunter Mahan, 30-1. My favorite bet on the board because I think he's going to win the whole thing. He's a stud at the majors, and particularly the U.S. Open where he has finished 13th, 18th, and 6th the last three years. He's also had a pretty good year, with a win already at the Phoenix Open and a 6th place finish at the Masters. The fact that he's missed the last two cuts concerns me, particularly the Memorial, but he's one of the best ball-strikers on tour and is going to win a U.S. Open some year - why not now?
Jim Furyk, 18-1. There are a handful of true favorites (as much as I believe he'll win, even I don't think Mahan is a real favorite) who all have a shot at this the one I think with the best shot also has the best odds in Furyk. He's already won twice this year, he's an absolute US Open monster (including one win), and you're telling me his odds should be four times worse than Tiger (who is 9/2)? Or twice as bad as Mickelson and Lee Westwood (9/1)? And equal to Dustin Johnson (who I do like, but not at just 18/1)? If he hadn't burned me hard by missing the cut at the Masters I'd say this was the best bet on the board.
Robert Karlsson, 66-1. This is probably the best bet on the board. Because of Karlsson's eye injury in 2009, causing him to either play poorly or not play at all for most of the year. Don't forget but before that he was one of the best golfers in the world, and was actually ranked #6 in 2008 after winning the European Order of Merit and finishing in the top 10 in three of the four majors (and finishing 20th in the fourth). He's showing that he's back lately, with a win on the European Tour earlier this year and a 2nd place finish last week at the St. Jude. Frankly, at 66-1 you're almost stupid not to bet on him.
Retief Goosen, 30-1. Goosen's combination of a solid year with some top finishes plus a solid US Open track record make him an intriguing pick. The good news is that he's made 7 of 8 cuts, he's grabbed five top tens in those 8 tournaments, he's hot, finishing 15th last week, and he has two career US Open wins and has finished top 16 the last two years. The bad news? The cut he missed this year was at Pebble Beach. Ouch.
Nick Watney, 35-1. I love Watney to win a major at some point in his career. He hits greens, he putts well, he drives well, and he's just a solid all-around player, who has the kind of demeanor that seems to never get to high and never get too low. Just a steady, steady player, who is capable of brillance at times. He hasn't fared well at the U.S. Open in his young career (CUT - T60 - CUT), but he generally plays well at Pebble. This is probably the weakest of the bets I'm listing, but I'm convinced he's going to win a major at some point, and if he does it here and I don't list him I'll never be able to live with myself.
Heath Slocum, 80-1. Out of all the big underdogs, this guy actually has a chance to win. He doesn't have much of a track record in the majors, although his best ever finish is a T9 at the 2008 US Open, but he's got a lot working in his favor. He's having a great year, making the cut in 14 of 15 tournaments entered with three top 10s and nine top 30s. He played in the Masters this year for just the second time ever and finished 18th (this would be essentially just his third U.S. Open). Maybe most interestingly, the two biggest keys to this course for the Open this year are Driving Accuracy and Greens in Regulation; Slocum ranks 4th and 7th in those metrics. If he can find a hot putter, he could breakthrough for a win. Hey, Lucas Glover last year had only been in two other US Opens and had missed the cut both times. It could happen.
Showing posts with label Retief Goosen. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Retief Goosen. Show all posts
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
Wednesday, April 7, 2010
Fare thee Well, Paul Carter (+ Masters Preview)
In definite bummer news, it came out early this morning from Nadine at the Gopher Hole that Paul Carter is transferring to be closer to his family. If you remember, his sister is sick with something I don't remember so I'm going to say cancer, and since Carter is close with her he feels he needs to be there for his family. While most Gopher transfers have simply been players who shouldn't have been recruited to the Big Ten in the first place (Limar Wilson, Engen Nurumbi, Aliou Kane), discipline problems (Brandon Smith), or just unhappy (Antoine Broxsie), this is a transfer that actually is a bummer, although it makes a lot of sense for him.
I was hoping Carter could be next year's Damian Johnson, and his offensive game was progressing nicely outside of the 2.5 missed layups per game. Not to mention it was always fun to debate who would win a no-rules bar fight between him and Westbrook. I wish Carter nothing but the best, and hope he has much success wherever he ends up. Whoever is lucky enough to snag him will be getting a good player, a by all accounts great person, and I assume one hell of a bar fighter. This also ensures the Gophers will have enough scholarships for Maurice Walker, Cory Joseph, and Royce White, should that come to fruition, so if you're looking for a silver lining there you go.
With that said, this weekend is of course the Return of Tiger Open held at Augusta, so I feel the need to give a bit of a preview, top ten style. If you're itching to talk Twins we'll get their eventually, but it's only been two games so settle down, nerd. I will say that Delmon looks great, not just because he slimmed down but he seems like he has an idea of what he's doing at the plate. More on that later this week or maybe next.
If you're looking to wager on the tournament, your best bets (for the money) are Furyk at 15-1, Dustin Johnson at 33-1, Nick Watney at 45-1, Mike Weir at 50-1, and Zach Johnson at 55-1. Anyway, here are your top 11, much like I do with NFL odds:
1. Jim Furyk. More of a hunch than anything specifically pointing to him as the favorite, but it's not as if it's a total shot in the dark. Furyk won just a few weeks ago at the Transitions, which, granted, isn't the most high-profile of tournaments but there is still a pretty decent field and it was Furyk's first win since 2007 so he's got momentum. He followed that up with an 11th at the Arnie Palmer against a very good field, and he's always been pretty good at Augusta with four top tens in his career (T-10 last year) and has only missed the cut here once. Plus, there's nothing better than watching that sweet, fundamental swing of Furyk's. That's why they call him "The Big Fundamental."
2. Lee Westwood. Nobody hates it more than me when a dirty Euro comes over here and tramps all over our country and steals our women and our green jackets, but Westwood has the look of a player who is ready to finally win his first major. Also the look of someone with terrible teeth, dumbo ears, and who needs a shower.
3. Ernie Els. With the way this jackass is playing he should probably be your favorite to win this week, but he's played as many holes on the weekend at Augusta the last three years as I have (hint: it's zero). Prior to those missed cuts, however, Els had five top tens from 2000-2004. How much of his crappy play the last few years was due to injury and how much was just being bad? Is he back and awesome or was it all kind of a fluke? I don't know. You tell me.
4. Tiger Woods. God, I don't know where to slot him. I'm not worried about him mentally since he's basically a robot programmed soley to golf and have sex with whores, but he hasn't played competitive golf in months, and playing practice rounds isn't the same thing. I think he's a lot more likely to blow away the field and set a course record than he is to implode and miss the cut. Plus it would be kind of sweet to watch/listen to all the spazzes who hate him cry.
5. Ian Poulter. Poulter is a dingleberry who wears hot pink pants and he missed the cut in his last start, but I can't help but shake the feeling that he's going to be in the mix on Sunday. He seems to live for the big events, even though as I now look at his career in majors it really isn't all that impressive. Huh. This could be one of those "perception isn't reality" kind of things. I guess we'll find out how stupid I am by Sunday. Or, god forbid, Friday.
6. Retief Goosen. He seems to be popping up on a lot of lists as a favorite, and why not? He's playing as well as he has in years with five top-10s already this year, and he's an absolute majors horse. He has four career top-3s at Augusta, and prior to missing the cut last year he had finished top-20 seven consecutive years at the Masters. He's almost certainly going to be a factor again this year.
7. Delmon Young. Is there anything he can't do?
8. Nick Watney. I love this guy. He's just a solid all-around player with no major holes in his game and who rarely seems intimidated by a strong field, a famous course, or a big tournament. He's been solid, if unspectacular this year, but has shown in the past that he can get around at Augusta. In his two career appearances here he's finished 11th and 19th. I think things are lining up for him to jump up and surprise this weekend.
9. Charl Schwartzel. Kind of a sleeper pick, but when he's everybody's big sleeper is he really a sleeper anymore? Schwartzel has played in four tournaments in the States and has three top 10s (including two WGC events) and has two wins on the European Tour to boot. His name is retarded, but he can clearly play and he's from South Africa where apparently everyone is good at golf and racism.
10. Steve Stricker. He has to be on this list because he's just so damn good and consistent, mostly because he's so good with the putting stick. Now that Adam Scott died, he's clearly the best golfer without a major victory and he's been in such a zone that he's almost certainly going to get one this year. Why not now?
11. Padraig Harrington. He's so good in majors that you can't possibly discount him, even if he sort of seems like he's been coasting since that incredible run where he won 3 out of 6 majors. But like I said, you can't discount him. Like an Ipod on Black Friday.
I was hoping Carter could be next year's Damian Johnson, and his offensive game was progressing nicely outside of the 2.5 missed layups per game. Not to mention it was always fun to debate who would win a no-rules bar fight between him and Westbrook. I wish Carter nothing but the best, and hope he has much success wherever he ends up. Whoever is lucky enough to snag him will be getting a good player, a by all accounts great person, and I assume one hell of a bar fighter. This also ensures the Gophers will have enough scholarships for Maurice Walker, Cory Joseph, and Royce White, should that come to fruition, so if you're looking for a silver lining there you go.
With that said, this weekend is of course the Return of Tiger Open held at Augusta, so I feel the need to give a bit of a preview, top ten style. If you're itching to talk Twins we'll get their eventually, but it's only been two games so settle down, nerd. I will say that Delmon looks great, not just because he slimmed down but he seems like he has an idea of what he's doing at the plate. More on that later this week or maybe next.
If you're looking to wager on the tournament, your best bets (for the money) are Furyk at 15-1, Dustin Johnson at 33-1, Nick Watney at 45-1, Mike Weir at 50-1, and Zach Johnson at 55-1. Anyway, here are your top 11, much like I do with NFL odds:
1. Jim Furyk. More of a hunch than anything specifically pointing to him as the favorite, but it's not as if it's a total shot in the dark. Furyk won just a few weeks ago at the Transitions, which, granted, isn't the most high-profile of tournaments but there is still a pretty decent field and it was Furyk's first win since 2007 so he's got momentum. He followed that up with an 11th at the Arnie Palmer against a very good field, and he's always been pretty good at Augusta with four top tens in his career (T-10 last year) and has only missed the cut here once. Plus, there's nothing better than watching that sweet, fundamental swing of Furyk's. That's why they call him "The Big Fundamental."
2. Lee Westwood. Nobody hates it more than me when a dirty Euro comes over here and tramps all over our country and steals our women and our green jackets, but Westwood has the look of a player who is ready to finally win his first major. Also the look of someone with terrible teeth, dumbo ears, and who needs a shower.
3. Ernie Els. With the way this jackass is playing he should probably be your favorite to win this week, but he's played as many holes on the weekend at Augusta the last three years as I have (hint: it's zero). Prior to those missed cuts, however, Els had five top tens from 2000-2004. How much of his crappy play the last few years was due to injury and how much was just being bad? Is he back and awesome or was it all kind of a fluke? I don't know. You tell me.
4. Tiger Woods. God, I don't know where to slot him. I'm not worried about him mentally since he's basically a robot programmed soley to golf and have sex with whores, but he hasn't played competitive golf in months, and playing practice rounds isn't the same thing. I think he's a lot more likely to blow away the field and set a course record than he is to implode and miss the cut. Plus it would be kind of sweet to watch/listen to all the spazzes who hate him cry.
5. Ian Poulter. Poulter is a dingleberry who wears hot pink pants and he missed the cut in his last start, but I can't help but shake the feeling that he's going to be in the mix on Sunday. He seems to live for the big events, even though as I now look at his career in majors it really isn't all that impressive. Huh. This could be one of those "perception isn't reality" kind of things. I guess we'll find out how stupid I am by Sunday. Or, god forbid, Friday.
6. Retief Goosen. He seems to be popping up on a lot of lists as a favorite, and why not? He's playing as well as he has in years with five top-10s already this year, and he's an absolute majors horse. He has four career top-3s at Augusta, and prior to missing the cut last year he had finished top-20 seven consecutive years at the Masters. He's almost certainly going to be a factor again this year.
7. Delmon Young. Is there anything he can't do?
8. Nick Watney. I love this guy. He's just a solid all-around player with no major holes in his game and who rarely seems intimidated by a strong field, a famous course, or a big tournament. He's been solid, if unspectacular this year, but has shown in the past that he can get around at Augusta. In his two career appearances here he's finished 11th and 19th. I think things are lining up for him to jump up and surprise this weekend.
9. Charl Schwartzel. Kind of a sleeper pick, but when he's everybody's big sleeper is he really a sleeper anymore? Schwartzel has played in four tournaments in the States and has three top 10s (including two WGC events) and has two wins on the European Tour to boot. His name is retarded, but he can clearly play and he's from South Africa where apparently everyone is good at golf and racism.
10. Steve Stricker. He has to be on this list because he's just so damn good and consistent, mostly because he's so good with the putting stick. Now that Adam Scott died, he's clearly the best golfer without a major victory and he's been in such a zone that he's almost certainly going to get one this year. Why not now?
11. Padraig Harrington. He's so good in majors that you can't possibly discount him, even if he sort of seems like he's been coasting since that incredible run where he won 3 out of 6 majors. But like I said, you can't discount him. Like an Ipod on Black Friday.
Wednesday, April 8, 2009
The Masters Preview
Since we seem to lose all our golf guys (ok, maybe a golf post every week was a little excessive) I'm going to have to take the reins here for a preview of The Masters, which begins tomorrow. Don't worry, there will be plenty of Twins talk to come.
The Favorite: Tiger Woods. Obviously. Tiger would almost certainly have been the favorite no matter what happened his last time out, but winning at Bay Hill two weeks ago tells the world know that he is all the way back. If you had to choose between Tiger and the Field, who would you pick? The field, obviously, but you'd at least have to think about it.
The Top 10 Contenders:
1. Paul Casey. Yes, I consider Casey your best bet to knock off Tiger this week. He's only played in the US three times this year, but those include a win at the Shell last week and a runner up finish in the Match Play Championship. Add in a 10th and 11th at the last two Masters, and a made cut in eight straight majors, and I think he's the guy to watch out for.
2. Zach Johnson. He won here two years ago, but then followed that up with a pretty mediocre 2008. It looks like the Hangover has abated, with Joaquin Phoenix's double having a pretty nice 2009, with a win at the Sony Open and five top 17s on the year.
3. Retief Goosen. Probably the best golfer at the Masters to never win the tournament, Goosen has finished in the top 3 here four times, and his career finishes since 2002 are very impressive: 2, 13, 13, 3, 3, 2, 17. He seemed to be on the downslope of his career last year, but has seen a resurgence this season with a win already at the Transitions Championship and another top 3 on the resume. This could be the year he finally gets his green jacket.
4. Phil Mickelson. Can't put Lefty any lower than this, and it was a tough call putting him even this low. Mickelson is incredibly uneven at times, but there's no doubting his ability when he's on. He also loves this tournament, with two wins and a total of eleven top 10s in 15 tries as a pro. If that's not enough, he's already got two wins this year, including a WGC event. I'm starting to wonder why I put him fourth.
5. Padraig Harrington. Since Paddy won his second straight Major at the PGA last year, he had been in coast mode, missing the cut in the next two tournaments and not finishing in the top 50 until March this year. The good news for Paddy fans is that he seems to be rounding into shape, with a 20th, 11th, and 26th in his last three. With the last two majors under his belt, and a 7th and 5th in his last two trips to Augusta, Harrington might get one step closer to the Paddy Slam.
6. Geoff Ogilvy. Ogilvy, despite a bit of a final round collapse last week, usually thrives in big tournaments, with four of his six career wins being either Majors (1) or WGC Events (3). He's also playing well right now, with two of those six career wins coming this season already. He's never seriously contended at Augusta (career best T-16th), but he's also never missed the cut here.
7. Mike Weir. Do you remember that Weir won here in 2003? Me neither. I always forget that and then realize it right before the tournament, and then realize again that Weir is pretty damn good at Augusta, with four top 20s in five tries since he won. He's also playing solid golf so far this season, with zero missed cuts and two top 3 finishes.
8. Nick Watney. I'm as surprised as you are to see this kid on the list, but he's burst on the scene in a big way this year, and has probably been the most consistent golfer so far this year. Watney has a win at the Buick and two other top 5 finishes. In fact, Watney has finished in the top 25 in seven of his eight tournaments this year. This is his second trip to Augusta, and he proved last year that he can handle it, finishing in a tie for 11th place. Stranger things have happened.
9. Robert Karlsson. I didn't know this until I was looking up his majors record on Wikipedia, but apparently he has two nicknames: "Ivan Drago" and "The Scientist." How awesome is that? If you need more, Karlsson finished in the top 10 in three of the four majors last year, including 8th at the Masters, finished 20th in the other Major, and won the European Order of Merit (the commie Player of the Year). He's also looking good, coming into the tournament with a T-14 finish last week.
10. Brandt Snedeker. He's not exactly having the best year, with as many missed cuts as made so far, but I have a hunch about the 2007 Rookie of the Year, particularly after he finished 17th his last time out at the Arnie Palmer. Snedeker generally plays well in Majors that aren't the British Open, with two top tens last year including a T-3 at Augusta.
10 "Contenders" Who Have No Shot:
1. Sergio Garcia. This pains me. If you pay attention to the Golf posts I make round here, you know I love the Sergio, but it's not his year, at least not at the Masters. The sexy Spaniard hasn't done much this year, with just one finish in the top 30, and the Masters is not where he's going to turn it around, with three missed cuts in his last four attempts here.
2. Vijay Singh. One of the more obvious "big" names to put on the list, the big Fiji has really struggled this year coming off knee surgery in January. Since his return, he has missed three cuts and finished 53rd and 59th. The Masters is generally not a place where players return to form, and Singh's streak of 10 straight top 25 finishes here is in jeopardy.
3. Luke Donald. As long as we're talking injuries, let's talk Donald's wrist. Luke had wrist surgery and missed the second half of the season last year, and then had to withdraw from the Match Play Event due to wrist trouble again. He's played in two tournaments since then, and managed a top 20 at the WGC, but comes in with a MC at the Houston Open. He also missed the cut at Augusta last year.
4. Adam Scott. Here's another one who is trying to return from an injury, and not at all succeeding. Scott injured himself surfing last December (note: Surfing is stupid. You look like a seal from below. Sharks eat seals. Ergo, if you surf, sharks will eat you) and hasn't hit his stride in his return, coming into the Masters on the heels of missed cuts in his last two events. Considering he's never finished better than 25th here since 2003, I don't see this being his big return event.
5. Jim Furyk. I never thought there would be a tournament where I'd consider Furyk to not be a factor, but since a 3rd place finish at the last WGC event, he's played really poorly, finishing 52nd and missing the cut in his last two times out. In fact, in the last six rounds he's played he's only broken 70 once, and has carded two separate rounds of 78. Add in that he hasn't really contended at Augusta since 2003, and I don't think this is Jimmy's week.
6. Ernie Els. Unlike Goosen, who seems to have pulled himself out of a career decline, the same can't really be said for Els, who has won only once since 2004. It's not that he's playing terrible golf, but he just doesn't really seem to ever be a serious threat to win anymore, much less at a major. Particularly Augusta, considering he's missed the cut the past two years.
7. Anthony Kim. Remember when Kim was the next big thing? He was one of the hottest golfers last season, picking up two wins and finishing fourth in the Fed Ex Cup Playoffs. He started out hot again this year, with a second place finish in the first tournament of the year, but has really cooled since then with nary a top 25 finish to his name. Add in that this is his first trip to Augusta, and I'm not seeing it.
8. Stewart Cink. People like Cink. People like blood sausage, too. People are morons. I can't stand this guy. Sure, he finished 3rd last year at Augusta, but he's sucked all year, with a 24th place finish his best, has only won once since 2004, and generally chokes anytime he's in contention for anything except for biggest homo on the tour. Want more? He named his two sons Connor and Reagan, and has a twitter account or page or whatever it is. H-O-M-O.
9. Steve Stricker. Speaking of choking when the pressure is on, holy cow has Stricker had his hands around his throat this year. On paper, his three top fives already this year look great, but consider that he had the lead at one point in all three of those tournaments and gave it back. Google "Steve Stricker chokes" and you'll see a ton of hits. Sound like a guy who can handle the pressure of the final round of the Masters? Add in that he's missed the cut here in five of his eight tries, including his last three attempts, and you can rule him out.
10. Kenny Perry. The Dan Akroyd clone may have had a good year last year, but he did it playing only one round in a major: he didn't qualify for the Masters or the US Open (and didn't attempt to), declined to play in the British, and got hurt after one round at the PGA. Perry is playing well this year (four top-10s already) but his lack of success at Augusta (five missed cuts in 8 tries), unfamiliarity with the course and tournament (hasn't played in the Masters since 2005), and overall lack of Major experience (only played five rounds total in the last 8 majors) tell me to stay away.
THE WILDCARD:
- Rory McIlroy. If you pay attention to golf, you know who this is. If you don't, he's the next young challenger to Tiger Woods, or at least is being portrayed that way. He's a 19-year old kid from Northern Ireland, and has already risen to the #17 ranked golfer in the world rankings. He already won in Dubai earlier this year, and finished 5th at the Accenture Match Play to go along with three other top 20s in the states. Simply put, he's young, he's untested in a Major, and by all rights shouldn't be in contention. However he's played well this year under pressure, seems completely unflappable and in control at all times, and is supremely talented. Really, I have no idea how to place him. I had him in both the Top Contenders and Players With No Chance categories at different points when I was thinking about this. Nothing would shock me.
There you have it. As a reward, here's a fun little picture of Natalie Gulbis:
The Favorite: Tiger Woods. Obviously. Tiger would almost certainly have been the favorite no matter what happened his last time out, but winning at Bay Hill two weeks ago tells the world know that he is all the way back. If you had to choose between Tiger and the Field, who would you pick? The field, obviously, but you'd at least have to think about it.
The Top 10 Contenders:
1. Paul Casey. Yes, I consider Casey your best bet to knock off Tiger this week. He's only played in the US three times this year, but those include a win at the Shell last week and a runner up finish in the Match Play Championship. Add in a 10th and 11th at the last two Masters, and a made cut in eight straight majors, and I think he's the guy to watch out for.
2. Zach Johnson. He won here two years ago, but then followed that up with a pretty mediocre 2008. It looks like the Hangover has abated, with Joaquin Phoenix's double having a pretty nice 2009, with a win at the Sony Open and five top 17s on the year.
3. Retief Goosen. Probably the best golfer at the Masters to never win the tournament, Goosen has finished in the top 3 here four times, and his career finishes since 2002 are very impressive: 2, 13, 13, 3, 3, 2, 17. He seemed to be on the downslope of his career last year, but has seen a resurgence this season with a win already at the Transitions Championship and another top 3 on the resume. This could be the year he finally gets his green jacket.
4. Phil Mickelson. Can't put Lefty any lower than this, and it was a tough call putting him even this low. Mickelson is incredibly uneven at times, but there's no doubting his ability when he's on. He also loves this tournament, with two wins and a total of eleven top 10s in 15 tries as a pro. If that's not enough, he's already got two wins this year, including a WGC event. I'm starting to wonder why I put him fourth.
5. Padraig Harrington. Since Paddy won his second straight Major at the PGA last year, he had been in coast mode, missing the cut in the next two tournaments and not finishing in the top 50 until March this year. The good news for Paddy fans is that he seems to be rounding into shape, with a 20th, 11th, and 26th in his last three. With the last two majors under his belt, and a 7th and 5th in his last two trips to Augusta, Harrington might get one step closer to the Paddy Slam.
6. Geoff Ogilvy. Ogilvy, despite a bit of a final round collapse last week, usually thrives in big tournaments, with four of his six career wins being either Majors (1) or WGC Events (3). He's also playing well right now, with two of those six career wins coming this season already. He's never seriously contended at Augusta (career best T-16th), but he's also never missed the cut here.
7. Mike Weir. Do you remember that Weir won here in 2003? Me neither. I always forget that and then realize it right before the tournament, and then realize again that Weir is pretty damn good at Augusta, with four top 20s in five tries since he won. He's also playing solid golf so far this season, with zero missed cuts and two top 3 finishes.
8. Nick Watney. I'm as surprised as you are to see this kid on the list, but he's burst on the scene in a big way this year, and has probably been the most consistent golfer so far this year. Watney has a win at the Buick and two other top 5 finishes. In fact, Watney has finished in the top 25 in seven of his eight tournaments this year. This is his second trip to Augusta, and he proved last year that he can handle it, finishing in a tie for 11th place. Stranger things have happened.
9. Robert Karlsson. I didn't know this until I was looking up his majors record on Wikipedia, but apparently he has two nicknames: "Ivan Drago" and "The Scientist." How awesome is that? If you need more, Karlsson finished in the top 10 in three of the four majors last year, including 8th at the Masters, finished 20th in the other Major, and won the European Order of Merit (the commie Player of the Year). He's also looking good, coming into the tournament with a T-14 finish last week.
10. Brandt Snedeker. He's not exactly having the best year, with as many missed cuts as made so far, but I have a hunch about the 2007 Rookie of the Year, particularly after he finished 17th his last time out at the Arnie Palmer. Snedeker generally plays well in Majors that aren't the British Open, with two top tens last year including a T-3 at Augusta.
10 "Contenders" Who Have No Shot:
1. Sergio Garcia. This pains me. If you pay attention to the Golf posts I make round here, you know I love the Sergio, but it's not his year, at least not at the Masters. The sexy Spaniard hasn't done much this year, with just one finish in the top 30, and the Masters is not where he's going to turn it around, with three missed cuts in his last four attempts here.
2. Vijay Singh. One of the more obvious "big" names to put on the list, the big Fiji has really struggled this year coming off knee surgery in January. Since his return, he has missed three cuts and finished 53rd and 59th. The Masters is generally not a place where players return to form, and Singh's streak of 10 straight top 25 finishes here is in jeopardy.
3. Luke Donald. As long as we're talking injuries, let's talk Donald's wrist. Luke had wrist surgery and missed the second half of the season last year, and then had to withdraw from the Match Play Event due to wrist trouble again. He's played in two tournaments since then, and managed a top 20 at the WGC, but comes in with a MC at the Houston Open. He also missed the cut at Augusta last year.
4. Adam Scott. Here's another one who is trying to return from an injury, and not at all succeeding. Scott injured himself surfing last December (note: Surfing is stupid. You look like a seal from below. Sharks eat seals. Ergo, if you surf, sharks will eat you) and hasn't hit his stride in his return, coming into the Masters on the heels of missed cuts in his last two events. Considering he's never finished better than 25th here since 2003, I don't see this being his big return event.
5. Jim Furyk. I never thought there would be a tournament where I'd consider Furyk to not be a factor, but since a 3rd place finish at the last WGC event, he's played really poorly, finishing 52nd and missing the cut in his last two times out. In fact, in the last six rounds he's played he's only broken 70 once, and has carded two separate rounds of 78. Add in that he hasn't really contended at Augusta since 2003, and I don't think this is Jimmy's week.
6. Ernie Els. Unlike Goosen, who seems to have pulled himself out of a career decline, the same can't really be said for Els, who has won only once since 2004. It's not that he's playing terrible golf, but he just doesn't really seem to ever be a serious threat to win anymore, much less at a major. Particularly Augusta, considering he's missed the cut the past two years.
7. Anthony Kim. Remember when Kim was the next big thing? He was one of the hottest golfers last season, picking up two wins and finishing fourth in the Fed Ex Cup Playoffs. He started out hot again this year, with a second place finish in the first tournament of the year, but has really cooled since then with nary a top 25 finish to his name. Add in that this is his first trip to Augusta, and I'm not seeing it.
8. Stewart Cink. People like Cink. People like blood sausage, too. People are morons. I can't stand this guy. Sure, he finished 3rd last year at Augusta, but he's sucked all year, with a 24th place finish his best, has only won once since 2004, and generally chokes anytime he's in contention for anything except for biggest homo on the tour. Want more? He named his two sons Connor and Reagan, and has a twitter account or page or whatever it is. H-O-M-O.
9. Steve Stricker. Speaking of choking when the pressure is on, holy cow has Stricker had his hands around his throat this year. On paper, his three top fives already this year look great, but consider that he had the lead at one point in all three of those tournaments and gave it back. Google "Steve Stricker chokes" and you'll see a ton of hits. Sound like a guy who can handle the pressure of the final round of the Masters? Add in that he's missed the cut here in five of his eight tries, including his last three attempts, and you can rule him out.
10. Kenny Perry. The Dan Akroyd clone may have had a good year last year, but he did it playing only one round in a major: he didn't qualify for the Masters or the US Open (and didn't attempt to), declined to play in the British, and got hurt after one round at the PGA. Perry is playing well this year (four top-10s already) but his lack of success at Augusta (five missed cuts in 8 tries), unfamiliarity with the course and tournament (hasn't played in the Masters since 2005), and overall lack of Major experience (only played five rounds total in the last 8 majors) tell me to stay away.
THE WILDCARD:
- Rory McIlroy. If you pay attention to golf, you know who this is. If you don't, he's the next young challenger to Tiger Woods, or at least is being portrayed that way. He's a 19-year old kid from Northern Ireland, and has already risen to the #17 ranked golfer in the world rankings. He already won in Dubai earlier this year, and finished 5th at the Accenture Match Play to go along with three other top 20s in the states. Simply put, he's young, he's untested in a Major, and by all rights shouldn't be in contention. However he's played well this year under pressure, seems completely unflappable and in control at all times, and is supremely talented. Really, I have no idea how to place him. I had him in both the Top Contenders and Players With No Chance categories at different points when I was thinking about this. Nothing would shock me.
There you have it. As a reward, here's a fun little picture of Natalie Gulbis:
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