At least until the Gophers are down by 20.
In the same conference room as yesterday with the same lunch. Wearing my lucky maroon sweater (Gophers 4-0 when I wear it). Let's hope for a miracle. Fully expected Westbrook to try to do too much today.
19:00 - Nolen falls down and turns the ball over. Nice offense. They didn't even bother to cross the 3-point line at any point. Already down 3-0.
18:44 - Just got an email from Snacks that Joe Lunardi has moved the Gophers to "lock" status for the tournament. Lunardi is the guy I'd trust the most, so that feels good.
18:13 - Another turnover as Shamala let's the ball go right through his hands. Ugh.
17:26 - DJ for three. Don't like the shot, but it fell. Another bad shot, this time Westbrook with a pull up three in transition, but again, he made it so who am I to argue?
16:45 - Westie with a steal and a layup. Gophers looking very good right now, fueled by some legitimately excellent defense. Next possession he tosses up a horrible running one handed hook shot thing from about 15 feet. I will never figure this guy out.
15:45 - Gophers lead 10-6 at the first timeout. Defense is looking really, really good and Sparty's only points are two Kalin Lucas three-pointers. If they can limit them to perimeter shots and keep them out of the paint they have a chance, but definitely have to keep Sparty off the offensive boards. The offense has looked good as well, mainly fueled by transition opportunities. Very loosey goosey out there. I'm thinking they aren't feeling the pressure after beating NW yesterday, and it's resulting in some very good play right now.
15:45 - Sweet jesus, they are now spending time putting different hair styles on Tom Izzo's picture. I'm serious. Like, they gave him a bald head, a Barry Melrose mullet, and other "famous" hairstyles. Nice job ESPN, you couldn't be more retarded. WHO'S MORE NOW???
15:07 - Chris Allen for three. I hate that guy. Absolute killer. He shoots like Hoffarber should shoot.
14:33 - Bostick on the board with a long lob pass alley-lay up thing. They are essentially playing with very little structure right now, and it's working. Bostick tips in a missed Iverson free throw, and the Gophers lead 16-13.
12:59 - Raymar Morgan with two fouls. That helps. Now if only they could find some way to contain Marquise Gray.
12:29 - Wow. Paul Carter (Quincy Lewis-lite) grabs an O-board and absolutely wrestles it away from the Spartans and completes a three-point play. Very impressive. I have no idea what team I'm watching right now.
11:52 - That god damn Allen hits a three from about three feet behind the line with 2 seconds on the shot clock. I seriously hate that guy. Gophers up 1 at the 12 minute timeout. Switched it up to a man-to-man from the 1-3-1 they were playing and I applaud this decision, as well as the decision to have Al Nolen on the bench. I don't think they can keep this up all game, but they are playing great right now and giving Michigan State everything they can handle.
11:45 - I might have to go to Canada for a few days for work. I'm terrified. Isn't Canada just a shitty version of Wisconsin? But colder?
11:03 - Erin Andrews lets us know that the Gophers are outrebounding the Spartans 10-3. Makes sense, the sheer effort and energy the Gophers are expending out there so far is impressive. It's as if they had 10 Travis Busches, but if they were all talented and not just a more annoying basketball version of Rudy. I still think they all want to punch him in the face.
9:09 - From Myron Medcalf's blog, as found by Inflection Point over at the Daily Gopher:
“Minnesota coach Tubby Smith said that he had to apologize to Bostick recently for not playing him more often. Smith said he’s been so focused on Bostick’s defensive lapses that he’s sometimes failed to realize how much his offense could help the team. We’ll see if he gets some more minutes against Michigan State Friday.”
I always knew Tubby read my bits.
9:06 - Erin Andrews now reports that Chester Frazier is injured and out for the Illinois/Michigan game tonight, and the Illini won't release any further details. Man, that would really hurt them if he's out for the tournament. They don't have anybody else who can play the point really. And don't say Jeff Jordan.
8:38 - Musberger just said, "Busch is on the floor" with disbelief in his voice. I feel the same way Brent, only with more anger and confusion.
8:14 - Crap, Summers misses two free throws, but the Gophers can't keep Marquise off the boards and then foul him as well. I wrote before the first game between these two that Gray might be a guy the Gophers would have to worry about. I was wrong then, but it looks correct now as Gray has 9 points already and hit both free throws to give the Spartans a 23-22 lead.
7:37 - Spartans still with the same lead as we head to timeout, Sampson will be on the line when we get back and should give the Gophers the lead or at least tie it up. Gophers still looking good, but the offense is stalling a bit (could be because Nolen and Busch are both in). Defense still looks good overall, but Spartans are starting to hit the offensive boards pretty hard. Even with Morgan and Suton on the bench with foul trouble they can't keep them off.
7:34 - hits just 1, tie game. Probably because they showed a shot of a heroin-addicted satan before his second attempt. I mean his dad.
6:13 - This game needs more Bostick.
5:57 - I knew Tubby was reading. Bostick in, posts up, and hits an incredible turnaround fadeaway. Like the Kobe Bryant style fadeaway I didn't even know he had. I think I motivated him.
4:58 - Westbrook has now turned it over on back-to-back possessions. Are we seeing evil Westbrook today?
3:55 - Michigan State up 1 at the timeout. Westie had the ball knocked out of his hands again, but the Gophers managed to recover it. He probably needs to sit and think about what he's done for a while. Another thing is the lack of the post up game. I don't know that I've seen Sampson or Iverson get the ball in the post at all today. With Suton out, this seems like it would be a good time to try it. Overall no real complaints about the offense.
3:06 - Once again, Tubby's reading as they try to get it to Sampson on the block who draws a holding call and hits both free throws to put the Gophers back on top 28-27.
0:57 - Gophers score on a beautiful 2-on-1 break with Joseph hitting Bostick for the layup to go back up 30-29. A great run out off a long rebound with Chris Allen actually missing a three pointer, which is a minor miracle all by itself.
HALFTIME - Michigan State leads 33-30 at the half after Lucas puts back his own miss at the buzzer. I can't complain about much, the Gophers are playing really well and are right there with a team that might end up being a number 1 seed. Raymar Morgan and Goran Suton have barely played, leading to the Gophers having an edge in rebounding, and we'll have to see how things shake out in the second half when those guys get back into the game. If the Gophers can keep playing tough defense the way they have been and keep creating transition opportunities, they have a chance. And it's probably time to abandon the high pick-and-roll. The Gophers keep trying it over and over, but Michigan State is way too good at defending it and it's just not working.
19:22 - Morgan dunk to open the half following a Gopher miss. Sparty up five. Feels like we're in a real dangerous time right here.
18:32 - Might have spoken too soon. Back-to-back turnovers for MSU.
16:50 - Still just a two point Spartan lead, but the Gopher offense is really not looking good right now. They've had to rush a shot and/or drive with the shot clock winding down on every possession this half.
14:25 - Sparty up to a six point lead at the timeout and something disturbing just happened. Bostick had post up position on the block against Lucas, and Nolen waved him away to clear out so he could drive. It worked out, and Sampson will be going to the line after a dish from Nolen, but I don't like it at all. Bostick has at least 4 or 5 inches on Lucas, and should have been given the ball.
14:25 - Ralph misses both free throws, then has the rebound come right to him and lets it go through his hands to Michigan State. Good news is they have the Hoffarber/Joseph/Bostick perimeter group in right now, so we could see a run.
13:21 - Another back door lob for a Spartan dunk, and they somehow keep getting behind the Gopher zone. That needs to stop if they want to get back in this. Now down 8.
12:57 - You know what I wish? I wish, just once, Tubby would diagram a play when they are in a timeout and the Gophers will have the ball coming out. Just once. Actually, strike that, I just wish he would CALL a play in a timeout.
11:44 - Now down 10 as Raymar Morgan takes it right at DJ and says, "I got your consideration for Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year right here pal." Ugh. This one's getting ugly, and Westbrook just keeps flinging up any shot that pops into his fat head.
11:25 - The Gophers have four assists. In the whole game.
9:38 - Does Westbrook have a tattoo of himself on his arm? Also Al Nolen is god damn awful.
7:20 - 49-40 Michigan State. Gophers looking like they're running out of gas. And Al Nolen sucks.
7:05 - You know, it's not the reason they are losing 51-41 right now, but the piss poor free throw shooting by the Gophers certainly isn't helping things.
5:46 - Missed three by Devoe, bringing the team's three point shooting to 2-14 for the game. Usually when they shoot shitty like that (read: almost every game) it's because they're taking horrible shot after horrible shot. Today they're taking pretty good shots, but are just missing them. Down 9, they are going to need to get it going from out there if they want to get back in this.
4:45 - DJ hits a three to make it an 8 point game after giving up a wide open layup to the Spartans.
4:10 - Missed shot, offensive rebound, foul, missed free throw, offensive rebound, bucket. Gophers down 10. Sigh.
FINAL - 64-56 Sparty wins.
Well, it was a pretty decent effort. The Gophers looked good for a half+, and I actually now have hope that they could win a first round game. As for Michigan State, they are back to being a hell of a good team. Good guards, good shooting, good big men, good athletes, deep bench, great defensively and on the boards. I think I could probably talk myself into putting these guys in the final four if the matchups fall right.
Friday, March 13, 2009
Weird Day
So that was a weird day, beginning with the Gophers actually coming back and winning a game it looked like they had kicked away. I'm not willing to call them a lock, but it's pretty close and I don't see any way they get knocked out now. Winning over Michigan State today would guarantee a bid, but I don't see it happening.
Michigan State is just too good, and we've seen how they can crush the Gophers. If Minnesota plays like they did for most of the Northwestern game, they can hang, but I don't see them winning. And they better bring their A game too. If they get crushed by the Spartans again, that's not going to be a good image to leave in the heads of the selection committee.
In other weirdness, the UCONN/Syracuse game went into six overtimes before the Cuse prevailed, and I watched every single one of them. It wasn't nearly as thrilling as it sounds. Every overtime ended in anti-climactic fashion. Nobody hit a big shot, and mainly towards the end of the OTs it was like watching the Gophers try to run a last minute play. Still, second longest game in history, so it's worth mentioning.
Five teams with their eyes on #1 bids played yesterday, and four of them lost. UCONN to Syracuse, Pitt to West Virginia, Oklahoma to Oklahoma State, and Kansas to Baylor - who looks like they are in position to make a run at the B12 title and justify my preseason love. Suddenly not only do Louisville and North Carolina look like locks for #1, but Michigan State and Memphis are in play as well. Hopefully the Gophers can knock the Spartans off that spot.
Speaking of the Gophers, they got a decent amount of help bubble-wise yesterday. Providence couldn't beat Louisville and probably ended their chance. Other teams who are now dead are UNLV (lost to San Diego State), Miami (lost to Virginia Tech), Kansas State (lost to Texas), Rhode Island (lost to Duquesne), and New Mexico (lost to Wyoming). Arizona also didn't do itself any favors, losing to Arizona State. They may still get in, but at this point they are probably behind Minnesota.
In the non-help division, Virginia Tech's win over Miami helped them, but they probably need one more, as do Temple (beat St. Joe's) and Maryland (beat NC State). Kentucky won their opening rounder, but needs probably 2 or 3 more wins. While Michigan, Oklahoma State, and Boston College probably all put themselves in, and maybe Florida and Penn State too - they're a really weird case. Additionally, USC may have put themselves in the conversation with an upset win over Cal. If they can manage to beat UCLA today, who knows.
Today will have plenty of interesting consequences for a lot of teams:
Virginia Tech plays North Carolina and has to win, as does Kentucky vs. LSU, San Diego State vs. BYU, and Temple vs. Xavier. Florida and Penn State might needs wins too.
And, just to top of the weirdness of the night, in case you missed it, I had a nice little chat with Devron Bostick.
Oh, prediction. Michigan State 71, Minnesota 64.
Michigan State is just too good, and we've seen how they can crush the Gophers. If Minnesota plays like they did for most of the Northwestern game, they can hang, but I don't see them winning. And they better bring their A game too. If they get crushed by the Spartans again, that's not going to be a good image to leave in the heads of the selection committee.
In other weirdness, the UCONN/Syracuse game went into six overtimes before the Cuse prevailed, and I watched every single one of them. It wasn't nearly as thrilling as it sounds. Every overtime ended in anti-climactic fashion. Nobody hit a big shot, and mainly towards the end of the OTs it was like watching the Gophers try to run a last minute play. Still, second longest game in history, so it's worth mentioning.
Five teams with their eyes on #1 bids played yesterday, and four of them lost. UCONN to Syracuse, Pitt to West Virginia, Oklahoma to Oklahoma State, and Kansas to Baylor - who looks like they are in position to make a run at the B12 title and justify my preseason love. Suddenly not only do Louisville and North Carolina look like locks for #1, but Michigan State and Memphis are in play as well. Hopefully the Gophers can knock the Spartans off that spot.
Speaking of the Gophers, they got a decent amount of help bubble-wise yesterday. Providence couldn't beat Louisville and probably ended their chance. Other teams who are now dead are UNLV (lost to San Diego State), Miami (lost to Virginia Tech), Kansas State (lost to Texas), Rhode Island (lost to Duquesne), and New Mexico (lost to Wyoming). Arizona also didn't do itself any favors, losing to Arizona State. They may still get in, but at this point they are probably behind Minnesota.
In the non-help division, Virginia Tech's win over Miami helped them, but they probably need one more, as do Temple (beat St. Joe's) and Maryland (beat NC State). Kentucky won their opening rounder, but needs probably 2 or 3 more wins. While Michigan, Oklahoma State, and Boston College probably all put themselves in, and maybe Florida and Penn State too - they're a really weird case. Additionally, USC may have put themselves in the conversation with an upset win over Cal. If they can manage to beat UCLA today, who knows.
Today will have plenty of interesting consequences for a lot of teams:
Virginia Tech plays North Carolina and has to win, as does Kentucky vs. LSU, San Diego State vs. BYU, and Temple vs. Xavier. Florida and Penn State might needs wins too.
And, just to top of the weirdness of the night, in case you missed it, I had a nice little chat with Devron Bostick.
Oh, prediction. Michigan State 71, Minnesota 64.
Thursday, March 12, 2009
SUPER IMPORTANT BREAKING NEWS!!1
If you pay attention to this blog, you're probably a raging drunk or have a super shitty job, but besides that you would also know that I have this complete and total fear that Devron Bostick is going to transfer due to lack of playing time. A fear that was multiplied today after Devron single handedly (ok, not really but close) gave the Gophers a big lead against Northwestern.
Well, after tonight, and a little bit of creepy facebook stalking, we can put those worries to rest after we had this exchange:
So there you go. Stop worrying about him transferring (and stop hoping for him to knock out Travis Busch) - ain't gonna happen. Nobody would lie to an anonymous internet stranger, would they? (I did ask him if I could post this, and he said yes, so that does make it pretty believable, at least in my opinion).
Well, after tonight, and a little bit of creepy facebook stalking, we can put those worries to rest after we had this exchange:
WWWWWW
Dude you're awesome. Please don't transfer.
9:25pmDevron
lol thanks n im not gne transfer... who did u hear that from
9:28pmWWWWWW
Nobody, just my own thoughts feeling frustration watching you not getting PT when you deserve it over people who are. I wouldn't blame you, I just hope you don't.
9:28pmDevron
oh ok but im not
9:29pmWWWWWW
Good man, I think you are the best offensive player on the team. Good luck tomorrow
9:30pmWWWWWW
Also, how often do you want to punch Travis Busch in the face?
9:31pmDevron
lol thanks bt trav my guy y u say dat
9:32pmWWWWWW
He just seems like he'd be irritating to play against with the constant running and hustling, but as a teammate I can see why he'd be your guy
9:33pmDevron
yea i wld hate him if he wasnt on our team lol bt he do be hustlin
So there you go. Stop worrying about him transferring (and stop hoping for him to knock out Travis Busch) - ain't gonna happen. Nobody would lie to an anonymous internet stranger, would they? (I did ask him if I could post this, and he said yes, so that does make it pretty believable, at least in my opinion).
WCHA Awards and Playoff Preview
The WCHA regular season ended last weekend. Some how the Gophers managed to finish in the top half of the league which really proves how mediocre the WCHA was this year. UND won the regular season title while still managing to suck, amazing! Here are the annual DWG WCHA Awards and a preview of the WCHA playoffs. Sadly Brian Schack did not make All Conference.WCHA First Team
F- Ryan Stoa (UMN)- Leading scorer in conference play. Will be playing in the NHL next season.
F- Ryan Lasch (SCSU)- Natural goal scorer who once again is one of the top scoring forwards in the country.
F- Ryan Duncan (UND)- This pains me to write because this kid is one of the most overrated players to ever skate in the WCHA. He has had a solid season for the team that won the league.
D- Jamie McBain (UW)- Top player on the Wisco. Probably 1st team All American. Great player.
D- Patrick Wiercioch(DU)- Several players could end up here but this Frosh has been fantastic all season. 2nd best rookie in the league.
G- Mark Cheverie (DU)- Number 1 or 2 in nearly every statistical category in the league. Alex Stalock from UMD would have been here if it wasn’t for his last two weeks. Talk about a case of the Albany’s.
All Frosh Team
F- Jordan Schroeder (UMN)- 2nd leading scorer in the conference and led the league in assists. Will most likely be picked as national frosh of the year be all the media outlets. Great player. Hopefully he sticks around for another season. Will be a top 5 pick this summer.
F- Jason Gregoire (UND)- Scored some big goals for UND this season. Will be a force the next 2 or 3 years.
F- Joe Colborne (DU)- Really started to come on the 2nd half of the season. Will be a monster if he plays another year of college. 1st round draft pick by Boston.
D- Patrick Wiercioch- If it wasn’t for Schroeder he would be frosh of the year.
D- Aaron Ness (UMN)- Much like the all conference team, the second D spot could go to several players. Ness had a good second half of the season and looks to be a stud in the future. Coaches also tend to give the awards to highly touted players. Plus he plays for the Gophers.
G- Brad Eidness (UND)- Also has a crack and making one of the all conference teams. Good young goalie who will only get better in the next couple years.
Conference MVP- Ryan Stoa- I could see several other players winning this award, but there is really no clear cut favorite. Stoa led the league in goals and pts while playing for an average team. I also want to give it to a gopher!
ROY- Jordan Schroeder- Lived up to the hype from day 1. His stats would have been better if Barriball could put the puck in the net.
Coach of the Year- Dave Hakstol- This pains me more than putting Duncan on the all conference team. You can’t deny the success this twat has had. You also can’t deny the fact that classless Dave wins games. UND still sucks and their logo should be changed to a honkie with a white sheet over his head. F’ing racisits!
WCHA Playoffs
#1 North Dakota vs #10 Michigan Tech- Michigan Tech is really bad and really boring to watch. This will most likely be a low scoring series but UND should sweep. UND does have a history of giving away a game in the playoffs but I wouldn’t count on it. UND wins 3-1 and 4-1 for a 2-0 sweep.
#2 Denver vs #9 Alaska- I have heard some people say they feel bad for Denver because they have to play Alaska this weekend. Those people are idiots. Yes, Alaska is better this season. That isn’t saying much. There is also chatter about Denver getting Bozak back this weekend which will really help him during the playoffs. Denver wins 3-2 and 4-2 for the sweep.
#3 Wisconsin vs #8 Mankato- Not sure what to expect in this series. Mankato has been playing really good hockey lately while Wisconsin has kind of gone in the tank. Because Wisconsin stole Mankato’s NCAA bid last year I am going with the revenge factor and picking the Mavericks. Mankato wins 3-2 Friday, Wisco wins 3-2 Saturday and Mankato wins 2-1 Sunday.....book it.
#4 CC vs #7 UMD— UMD couldn’t have got a better match up for the first round. After completely crapping down their leg the past two weekends they have dropped from a top 5 WCHA team looking to make the NCAA’s to this. The one thing they have going for them is CC is the most peace loving arena and team in the WCHA. You will be able to count the number of checks CC throws this weekend on your hands. Both teams have goalies that could potentially be red hot and steal the series. Although all signs are Stalock is in the toilet worse than WWWWWW’s life. CC wins in 3. UMD wins 3-2 Friday, CC 4-1 Saturday and CC 4-2 Sunday.
#5 Gophers vs #6 St. Cloud- Even though the Gophers are 4-0-0 vs St.Cloud this season I am worried. There is no possible way a team can get owned by this version of Gopher hockey. All St. Cloud has to do is sell the farm to shut down the Gophers top line and MN will score maybe 1 goal all weekend. You also have to factor in Kangas to this mess. He hit an all time low last Friday but did bounce back and pitch a shut out on Saturday. Which Kangas shows up this weekend will determine the series. If Jesus returns the Gophers win in two games. If Kangas 2009 shows up St. Cloud wins in 3. Gophers win 4-2 Friday, St. Cloud wins 3-2 on Saturday and who the hell knows on Sunday. I will pick the Gophers just because.
That will give us a final Five of UND, Denver, Mankato, Colorado College and MN. The only teams that should be allowed to play are UND and Denver. Vegas Tip of The Week= Denver wins the Final 5!
I have to go shower after putting Duncan and Hakstol on my awards list.
Let's see how this works
Trying to do this while doing actual work and watching the game on the TV in our conference room while taking a long lunch. Currently it's 2-0 Minnesota with 18 minutes left in the first half thanks to a strong Al Nolen drive. They really need to keep attacking the zone that way. Other things so far are that Nolen looks really energetic on defense, they already have two or three offensive rebounds, and Westbrook already took the dumbest shot imaginable. Grabbed an o-board, dribbled back about two feet and took a fadeaway 19 footer with about 33 on the shot clock. Awesome. Great decision.
16:50 - Gophers suddenly going back into the "pass it around the perimeter and chuck up a three when the shot clock runs down" mode. That needs to stop immediately.
16:15 - Ralph! He should dominate these slow white clowns. Keep getting it inside, one way or another.
15:24 - First TV timeout. Northwestern 5, Minnesota 4. No work yet accomplished. Gophers gave up a wide open three pointer to Coble after doubling down on some jackass who they don't need to double down on. In general, the offense is looking good, trying to get the ball inside quite a bit, but DJ and Ralph have already been whistled for traveling after getting the ball on the block. Hopefully they stick with the strategy, and the post men decide on a pivot foot.
14:30 - Not entirely sure why the Gophers are playing a 1-3-1 instead of a man-to-man. They are more athletic and should make things difficult with a tough pressure man-to-man like they did against Illinois in that one game where they were good. Luckily, the Wildcats are missing their threes so far, but they are getting open looks.
13:20 - Devron for three to make it 9-8 Minnesota. I really like that kid. I'm going to miss him. I'm guessing a Missouri Valley School.
11:00 - Second timeout, Gophers up 13-8. Tubby switched to a man, once again proving he reads this blog, and Paul Carter got a steal, once again proving I'm a genius. Offense still looking pretty solid, at least in theory, with Bostick scoring in the lane and Iverson scoring on a post-up jump hook. Turnovers are still a problem - Iverson had the ball taken right out of his hands and Bostick lost it in the lane at one point, but they are attacking the zone. Hoff missed a three badly but also had a great play tracking down a loose ball and saving it leading to a Gopher score. This would be an excellent time for him to get hot.
9:06 - Time out Northwestern with the Gophers running it to 18-8. Joseph hits a three off a perfectly executed secondary break by Hoffarber (team's best PG) and Carter, hitting him in the corner for the open three, followed by Iverson with a steal (!?) at the top of Northwestern's offense and taking it all the way in for an awkward dunk. The run is right now at 12-0, the man-to-man is working, and NW looks a little bit panicky. I like this.
7:33 - 22-11 Gophers at the timeout. I'm not sure what team I'm watching here. They are executing transition offense and fast break absolutely beautifully, punctuated by a 2-on-1 give and go by Joseph and Bostick resulting in a Devron jam. Defense looks good as well. Tough, aggressive, and energetic - getting into the passing lanes and generally being disruptive as hell. Interesting to note, this run is happening with Nolen and Westbrook on the bench. Hoff, Devron, Joseph, Carter, and Sampson are looking like a really smooth group right now.
7:22 - Busch is in. Expecting a Wildcat run at any moment. And he's matched up on Coble. That's great.
4:57 - Nolen continues to not know what to do when he gets in the paint, this time picking up his dribble and looking around like he's confused, then getting tied up.
3:39 - God dammit Nolen. Takes a completely idiotic three pointer, misses it, then puts his head down like a freaking school kid who got scolded and lets a Wildcat streak right by him for a layup. And Hoffarber clanks another one. Thank god for my boy Devron, who grabbed two offensive rebounds and ended up putting one of them back for a hoop on the last possession. We're at the four minute timeout, Gophers are still up 29-17 , but I'm thinking we need more Hoff/Joseph than Westbrook/Nolen from here on out.
0:43 - Jesus Christ Westbrook is a damn idiot sometimes. You don't need to go into "F YOU MODE" when you're up 29-22. Forcing the issue and taking every shot has it's place, but this sure as hell isn't it.
0:00 - Halftime, Gophers 31, Northwestern 25 when Coble hits a three at the buzzer. Overall it's been a good effot, with Joseph and Bostick really leading the way. The defense has tailed off a bit, particularly in transition, but the offense seems intent on getting the ball inside off the pass or the dribble, and that needs to continue. Coble has 19 at the half according to the announcers, although it doesn't seem like it. I don't think putting Busch on him is the answer. Also not the answer is Al Nolen. We need to see more Joseph than Nolen, and more Hoffarber than Westbrook.
Second Half (unfortunately my jackass co-workers have joined me in the conference room for lunch - expect updates to be less frequent)
20:00 - Bostick gets the second half start, I like this. And a 3-point play by DJ to get things going.
18:30 - See, right there, perfect Westbrook. Shot clock down to 10, slow white guy on him, takes it at him and hits a pull up 12 footer. Do that. Not the other thing from earlier. Gophers up 36-28.
15:07 - Iverson leads the game with 3 steals. That's weird.
14:08 - DJ squashing Coble, just killing him defensively. Forced Coble to do about 17 moves, and he's no dreamshaker, before he finally hits the side of the backboard with his "jumper."
12:25 - Gophers up 43-37, but this is suddenly beginning to feel a LOT like that last Michigan game.
10:30 - Ok, they're gone. Thank God. Stop asking me inane questions about work crap when I'm trying to watch the Gophers blow the game. Although Westbrook did a great job there with the shot clock winding down taking it at some poor white guy and blowing by him for the layup. He's definitely a weapon, but a dangerous, sometimes uncontrollable weapon. He's like an alligator. Excellent when you need him to kill prowlers, but if you don't keep a tight leash on him he will bite your face off. Foul on Busch (who is back in the game for some reason) trying to guard Coble - and NW is now in the bonus.
9:12 - Gophers suddenly struggling on offense, even with NW back in the same 1-3-1 that Minnesota destroyed earlier in the game, bad enough to get them to get out of it. Now they're confused again, and the Wildcats have cut the lead to four. Seriously, this is JUST LIKE the Michigan game.
8:55 - Seriously, Tubby Smith sucks. They call a timeout with 16 left on the shot clock because the offense isn't working, and they come back out with no play to run. Nothing. They just pass it around the perimeter again, leading to a NW steal and layup to cut the league to 2. How do you not call some kind of play? What the hell did he say during the timeout? Was it just a bunch of "keep your head up", "you guys are good" ra-ra crap? Seriously, how do you not have a play. It's now tied. God damn it.
7:59 - Tie game. Gophers playing tight. This one is probably over. I should just go do work now.
7:31 - Northwestern leads on a miracle swoopy layup thing by Michael Thompson. Unbelievable. Gopher offense tight and has no idea what to do right now. Jesus Christ Tubby, take a timeout, DO SOMETHING.
5:34 - Great defense by Minnesota, ending in DJ forcing Coble into a desperation airball for a shot clock violation. Use this momentum. Get it inside - YES. They find Sampson on the block, scores and the foul. Free throw made, Gophers up by 1 and that's four on Coble. Sampson is an awesome free throw shooter, and not just "for a big man." Keep this momentum going.
4:53 - Never mind, foul on Hoff on the perimeter because he seemingly can't even guard Jeremy Nash who luckily misses both free throws. GET THE BALL INSIDE.
4:25 - Nope, a not open perimeter jumper by Westbrook missed. Not a horrible shot, but not what they needed. Missed shot and an offensive rebound by the Wildcats, then a great block by DJ again. Nolen gets picked, but somehow manages to get a tie-up. Where are Devoe and Devron?
3:49 - 50-49 Gophers. I feel sick. Jim Jackson thinks this is where Westbrook takes over. I can't decide if that's good or bad.
3:01 - 52-49 after Westy hits his little pull up floater thing. Northwestern takes a timeout - what do you want to bet they have an actual play they're going to run here?
2:42 - Ok, they did have a play, but it was a backdoor lob to Nash? What the hell? I think I would have rather run no play. I guess Tubby wins that one.
2:10 - Two Westy free throws and it's 54-49. My relationship with Westbrook could be described as "tumultuous" and that would be an understatement. I think we're like Chris Brown and Rihanna.
1:11 - Sampson with a dunk, Northwestern with a miss, and now we are in foul mode for the Wildcats. I'm not quite ready to relax, but it's now a 8 point lead.
0:50 - Ten point lead. I am now relaxed.
FINAL - 66-53
Whew. I think that will likely lock up a spot in the tournament for the Gophers. Assuming they don't beat Michigan State, I would put their chances now at about 90%. I wouldn't be shocked if they don't get in, but I would be pretty surprised.
Excellent job locking down the defense when they did, holding Northwestern scoreless for something like the final six minutes of the game (other than the final thirty seconds), and great job by DJ of completely shutting down Coble in the second half. It got a little dicey there, and I said some things I probably didn't mean (sorry Tubby, I love you), but I damn near had a heart attack so I can't be held responsible. Let's just not embarrass ourselves tomorrow.
16:50 - Gophers suddenly going back into the "pass it around the perimeter and chuck up a three when the shot clock runs down" mode. That needs to stop immediately.
16:15 - Ralph! He should dominate these slow white clowns. Keep getting it inside, one way or another.
15:24 - First TV timeout. Northwestern 5, Minnesota 4. No work yet accomplished. Gophers gave up a wide open three pointer to Coble after doubling down on some jackass who they don't need to double down on. In general, the offense is looking good, trying to get the ball inside quite a bit, but DJ and Ralph have already been whistled for traveling after getting the ball on the block. Hopefully they stick with the strategy, and the post men decide on a pivot foot.
14:30 - Not entirely sure why the Gophers are playing a 1-3-1 instead of a man-to-man. They are more athletic and should make things difficult with a tough pressure man-to-man like they did against Illinois in that one game where they were good. Luckily, the Wildcats are missing their threes so far, but they are getting open looks.
13:20 - Devron for three to make it 9-8 Minnesota. I really like that kid. I'm going to miss him. I'm guessing a Missouri Valley School.
11:00 - Second timeout, Gophers up 13-8. Tubby switched to a man, once again proving he reads this blog, and Paul Carter got a steal, once again proving I'm a genius. Offense still looking pretty solid, at least in theory, with Bostick scoring in the lane and Iverson scoring on a post-up jump hook. Turnovers are still a problem - Iverson had the ball taken right out of his hands and Bostick lost it in the lane at one point, but they are attacking the zone. Hoff missed a three badly but also had a great play tracking down a loose ball and saving it leading to a Gopher score. This would be an excellent time for him to get hot.
9:06 - Time out Northwestern with the Gophers running it to 18-8. Joseph hits a three off a perfectly executed secondary break by Hoffarber (team's best PG) and Carter, hitting him in the corner for the open three, followed by Iverson with a steal (!?) at the top of Northwestern's offense and taking it all the way in for an awkward dunk. The run is right now at 12-0, the man-to-man is working, and NW looks a little bit panicky. I like this.
7:33 - 22-11 Gophers at the timeout. I'm not sure what team I'm watching here. They are executing transition offense and fast break absolutely beautifully, punctuated by a 2-on-1 give and go by Joseph and Bostick resulting in a Devron jam. Defense looks good as well. Tough, aggressive, and energetic - getting into the passing lanes and generally being disruptive as hell. Interesting to note, this run is happening with Nolen and Westbrook on the bench. Hoff, Devron, Joseph, Carter, and Sampson are looking like a really smooth group right now.
7:22 - Busch is in. Expecting a Wildcat run at any moment. And he's matched up on Coble. That's great.
4:57 - Nolen continues to not know what to do when he gets in the paint, this time picking up his dribble and looking around like he's confused, then getting tied up.
3:39 - God dammit Nolen. Takes a completely idiotic three pointer, misses it, then puts his head down like a freaking school kid who got scolded and lets a Wildcat streak right by him for a layup. And Hoffarber clanks another one. Thank god for my boy Devron, who grabbed two offensive rebounds and ended up putting one of them back for a hoop on the last possession. We're at the four minute timeout, Gophers are still up 29-17 , but I'm thinking we need more Hoff/Joseph than Westbrook/Nolen from here on out.
0:43 - Jesus Christ Westbrook is a damn idiot sometimes. You don't need to go into "F YOU MODE" when you're up 29-22. Forcing the issue and taking every shot has it's place, but this sure as hell isn't it.
0:00 - Halftime, Gophers 31, Northwestern 25 when Coble hits a three at the buzzer. Overall it's been a good effot, with Joseph and Bostick really leading the way. The defense has tailed off a bit, particularly in transition, but the offense seems intent on getting the ball inside off the pass or the dribble, and that needs to continue. Coble has 19 at the half according to the announcers, although it doesn't seem like it. I don't think putting Busch on him is the answer. Also not the answer is Al Nolen. We need to see more Joseph than Nolen, and more Hoffarber than Westbrook.
Second Half (unfortunately my jackass co-workers have joined me in the conference room for lunch - expect updates to be less frequent)
20:00 - Bostick gets the second half start, I like this. And a 3-point play by DJ to get things going.
18:30 - See, right there, perfect Westbrook. Shot clock down to 10, slow white guy on him, takes it at him and hits a pull up 12 footer. Do that. Not the other thing from earlier. Gophers up 36-28.
15:07 - Iverson leads the game with 3 steals. That's weird.
14:08 - DJ squashing Coble, just killing him defensively. Forced Coble to do about 17 moves, and he's no dreamshaker, before he finally hits the side of the backboard with his "jumper."
12:25 - Gophers up 43-37, but this is suddenly beginning to feel a LOT like that last Michigan game.
10:30 - Ok, they're gone. Thank God. Stop asking me inane questions about work crap when I'm trying to watch the Gophers blow the game. Although Westbrook did a great job there with the shot clock winding down taking it at some poor white guy and blowing by him for the layup. He's definitely a weapon, but a dangerous, sometimes uncontrollable weapon. He's like an alligator. Excellent when you need him to kill prowlers, but if you don't keep a tight leash on him he will bite your face off. Foul on Busch (who is back in the game for some reason) trying to guard Coble - and NW is now in the bonus.
9:12 - Gophers suddenly struggling on offense, even with NW back in the same 1-3-1 that Minnesota destroyed earlier in the game, bad enough to get them to get out of it. Now they're confused again, and the Wildcats have cut the lead to four. Seriously, this is JUST LIKE the Michigan game.
8:55 - Seriously, Tubby Smith sucks. They call a timeout with 16 left on the shot clock because the offense isn't working, and they come back out with no play to run. Nothing. They just pass it around the perimeter again, leading to a NW steal and layup to cut the league to 2. How do you not call some kind of play? What the hell did he say during the timeout? Was it just a bunch of "keep your head up", "you guys are good" ra-ra crap? Seriously, how do you not have a play. It's now tied. God damn it.
7:59 - Tie game. Gophers playing tight. This one is probably over. I should just go do work now.
7:31 - Northwestern leads on a miracle swoopy layup thing by Michael Thompson. Unbelievable. Gopher offense tight and has no idea what to do right now. Jesus Christ Tubby, take a timeout, DO SOMETHING.
5:34 - Great defense by Minnesota, ending in DJ forcing Coble into a desperation airball for a shot clock violation. Use this momentum. Get it inside - YES. They find Sampson on the block, scores and the foul. Free throw made, Gophers up by 1 and that's four on Coble. Sampson is an awesome free throw shooter, and not just "for a big man." Keep this momentum going.
4:53 - Never mind, foul on Hoff on the perimeter because he seemingly can't even guard Jeremy Nash who luckily misses both free throws. GET THE BALL INSIDE.
4:25 - Nope, a not open perimeter jumper by Westbrook missed. Not a horrible shot, but not what they needed. Missed shot and an offensive rebound by the Wildcats, then a great block by DJ again. Nolen gets picked, but somehow manages to get a tie-up. Where are Devoe and Devron?
3:49 - 50-49 Gophers. I feel sick. Jim Jackson thinks this is where Westbrook takes over. I can't decide if that's good or bad.
3:01 - 52-49 after Westy hits his little pull up floater thing. Northwestern takes a timeout - what do you want to bet they have an actual play they're going to run here?
2:42 - Ok, they did have a play, but it was a backdoor lob to Nash? What the hell? I think I would have rather run no play. I guess Tubby wins that one.
2:10 - Two Westy free throws and it's 54-49. My relationship with Westbrook could be described as "tumultuous" and that would be an understatement. I think we're like Chris Brown and Rihanna.
1:11 - Sampson with a dunk, Northwestern with a miss, and now we are in foul mode for the Wildcats. I'm not quite ready to relax, but it's now a 8 point lead.
0:50 - Ten point lead. I am now relaxed.
FINAL - 66-53
Whew. I think that will likely lock up a spot in the tournament for the Gophers. Assuming they don't beat Michigan State, I would put their chances now at about 90%. I wouldn't be shocked if they don't get in, but I would be pretty surprised.
Excellent job locking down the defense when they did, holding Northwestern scoreless for something like the final six minutes of the game (other than the final thirty seconds), and great job by DJ of completely shutting down Coble in the second half. It got a little dicey there, and I said some things I probably didn't mean (sorry Tubby, I love you), but I damn near had a heart attack so I can't be held responsible. Let's just not embarrass ourselves tomorrow.
Let's Not Screw This Up
If you're reading this blog you're either woefully lost or a Gopher basketball fan, and as such you know what's going on tomorrow.
The Gophers play Northwestern in the first round of the Big Ten tournament, in what is, in all likelihood, a must win for the Golden Gophers if they still want to get into the NCAA tournament. Is it possible they get in even with a loss. Yes, although unlikely. A win doesn't necessarily guarantee a bid, but I don't imagine a scenario in which they would get snubbed after a victory over the Wildcats - a top 100 RPI team.
You pretty much know what you're getting with Northwestern. A slow team - both of foot and in terms of pace - but with a quick, penetrating point guard. A 1-3-1 zone on one end, and a patient, methodical offense that relies heavily upon the three pointer on the other. Given the Gophers relative success against the Michigan 1-3-1, I am more confident this time around, although Northwestern does it better than the Wolverines. This is the third matchup between the two teams, with the games being split. However, if you look at it by halves, the Gophers won 3 of the 4. They outscored Northwestern in three halves by a combined 106-76, including winning the most recent game by a comfortable margin 72-45. Based on comparative resumes and the games against each other this year, as well as overall talent level and coaching (kind of starting to question this one though), I'd be inclined to pick the Gophers.
However.
The Gophers need to turn the other team over to win, and Northwestern doesn't turn it over. The Gophers are vulnerable against the three-pointer, and the Wildcats rely on it to win. The Gophers turn it over a lot, and Northwestern is good at forcing turnovers. The only numbers in the Gophers favor are that they block a lot of shots and NW gets their shot blocked a lot, and the Gophers are good at grabbing offensive rebounds while Northwestern is horrible at stopping them. That's not enough.
Northwestern 53, Minnesota 47 - but look on the bright side - we got our NIT tickets in the mail the other day.
Whatever. Yesterday Providence got the win they needed over DePaul after coming back, setting up a huge game for the Friars against Louisville today. If they lose, they're out. If they win, they might still be out but it would probably be enough to get them a bid. West Virginia ended Notre Dame's hope at a miracle run, and Texas Tech got an incredible 43 points from Mike Singletary (season average = 11), including 29 in a row, to upset Texas A&M in the first round of the Big 12. A&M is probably ok here, but things got a bit more nervous around College Station, while Oklahoma State probably punched their ticket with a first round win over Iowa State. And congratulations to Portland State and Robert Morris who won their conference tournaments and are heading to the dance.
Today, other than the Gopher game and the Providence game, we have plenty of bubble implications happening. Miami and V-Tech square off in a first round ACC game that is a bubble elimination game, although the winner might have to win in the second round too - same deal with UNLV vs. San Diego State in the MWC. Arizona can probably get in with a win, but they face a better team and their main rival in Arizona State. And in various tournaments, Michigan, Kentucky, Penn State, Temple, Rhode Island, Kansas State, Utah State, Maryland, Boston College, Florida, and New Mexico all think they still have a chance, and all have to win today.
Conference Previews:
BIG TEN: As mentioned above, the Gophers are just one of several teams here trying to grab a spot in the tournament, with Michigan State, Illinois, and Purdue the only locks. Penn State probably needs two wins, while the Gophers and Michigan need one. Wisconsin and Ohio State are very likely in even with a loss (and they play each other).
FAVORITE: Michigan State. The class of the conference. Purdue is still better than they've played so far, but the Spartans are the clear favorite.
SLEEPER: Penn State. They terrify me. With road wins over Michigan State and Illinois, they've shown they can beat anybody in the conference anywhere - how many other Big Ten teams would you say that about? With the good guard play they have, they have a chance.
W's PICK: Purdue. I feel like this is when the Boilers really turn it on.
WHO GETS IN?: Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio State, Wisconsin
ATLANTIC COAST: The best conference in the land from top-to-bottom. The Big East may be top heavier, but there really are no bad teams in the ACC (well, G-Tech and Virginia aren't very good - Go Gophers). BC, Maryland, Virginia Tech, and Miami are all still fighting for an NCAA berth.
FAVORITE: North Carolina. The Heels were pretty much the consensus favorite to win the National Championship at the beginning of the year, and not much has changed. An injury to Marcus Ginyard hurt their depth, and a few minor hiccups in ACC knocked them out of the #1 spot, but they're back and probably still the favorite to win.
SLEEPER: Boston College. The Eagles are on the bubble and close to the top of it, but still need at least a win. With wins over Duke and UNC earlier in the year, and a guard like Tyrese Rice who could have a Randolph Childress-like performance, they could surprise.
W's PICK: UNC. Even with Ty Lawson banged up, I think they are head and shoulders above everybody else. Duke, Clemson, and Wake are all good, but I not to UNC's level.
WHO GETS IN?: UNC, Duke, Clemson, Florida State, Boston College
SOUTHEASTERN: In the weakest year I can remember for the SEC, only LSU and Tennessee can feel good about their NCAA chances. Florida, South Carolina, and even Auburn are still fighting to get in, but the SEC may end up with only two bids this year.
FAVORITE: LSU. More by default than anything else, I don't think the Tigers are all that good but they rolled through conference play with a 13-3 record. There's really not much there in the non-conference, so who knows how good they really are. Marcus Thornton and Tasmin Mitchell are a good 1-2 punch, but center Chris Johnson, who got a lot of press after making huge leaps in his game last year, has regressed.
SLEEPER: Auburn. In a bad conference, a hot, somewhat decent team can make a run and win the whole thing. In the SEC's case, a horrible team can as shown by Georgia last year. Auburn comes in having won 8 of their last 9, including a win over LSU.
W's PICK: Tennessee. Built much more like a tournament team, I think the Vols roll.
WHO GETS IN?: LSU, Tennessee, South Carolina, Florida
SOUTHLAND: Remember when Northwestern State beat Iowa in the first round? That was awesome.
FAVORITE: Stephen F. Austin. That's a college, not a person
SLEEPER: McNeese State. Only 5-11 in the conference, but they beat SFA once.
W's PICK: Northwestern State. Maybe this time they can beat Wisconsin.
TOMORROW: Things keep going in the major conferences, and we get our Patriot Conference champ in a game between #1 American and #2 Holy Cross. Additionally there will be plenty of games with bubble implications going on in the various tournaments across the land. The most interesting might be St. Mary's vs. Eastern Washington. The Gaels scheduled this as more of a tune-up for recently returned star Patrick Mills than anything else, but St. Mary's is right on the middle of the bubble and Eastern Washington is #234 in the RPI. A win does nothing for their profile (although might help get Mills ready for the tournament) but a loss would almost certainly put them out. It's a calculated risk, and could backfire in a big way - but probably not, E Wash is awful.
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
Thieves!
Some dumb team (please don't be the Gophers) is going to have their heart broken on Sunday, and it's all due to Cleveland State. The Vikings beat Butler in the finals of the Horizon Conference Tournament to put them in the NCAAs, and with Butler a lock to receive an at-large bid, that means there is one less bid available for the bubble teams. I had it at about 10 bids remaining with 20 teams vying for one, so now we're down to 9.
A couple of teams that were just below the bubble, Cincinnati and Georgetown, would have needed a pretty strong run to merit even the slightest bit of consideration, but it doesn't matter anymore because they were both upset in the first round of the Big East tournament, Cincy by DePaul (who didn't win a Big East game all year) and Georgetown by St Johns. One other team affected by this is Providence, who is still on the bubble, albeit probably on the bottom. Now they face DePaul today instead of Cincy, and will definitely have to win this one and then find a way to upset Louisville if they want a chance.
For the smaller conferences #1 seeds Western Kentucky and North Dakota State won their bids (get ready to get even more sick of the NDSU story than you already are), but Weber State was upset in the semis of the Big Sky Tournament, which breaks my heart, guaranteeing that they are NIT bound.
On to today:
BIG TWELVE: Surprises abound in the Big 12 this year, with both Kansas and Missouri becoming final four candidates (more-so Kansas, obviously) and blowing through their preseason expectations. Texas A&M is a big surprise as having wrapped up a bid before the conference tournament kicks off, while Texas has been a mild disappointment and Baylor absolutely fell on it's face.
FAVORITE: Oklahoma. The Sooners might be able to snag a #1 seed if they can win the Big 12 tourney, and they are capable depending on Willie Warren. You know you're going to get a good game out of National POY favorite Blake Griffin, who led the Big 12 in scoring and rebounding (led nation in rebounding) while shooting 63%. If you toss out the game he got hurt in, he only played four games this year where he didn't record a double/double.
SLEEPER: Texas A&M. The Aggies are one of the hottest teams in the Big 12, coming in having won their last six games including three road wins and wins at home over Texas and Missouri. They went from fringe bubble team to NCAA lock in a matter of three weeks. The Aggies' Josh Carter and Donald Sloan form a potent guard duo, who bring experience and scoring to the table. Carter's three point shooting has fallen off since hitting over 50% two years ago, but he can still get hot as shown by his 7-10 vs. Iowa State.
W's PICK: Kansas. I still can't believe they are this good after losing so much talent off of last year's team, but they are very much for real. The Jayhawks are one of only four teams to rank in the top 20 in the country in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and still have an outside shot at a one seed if everything falls right. Although if Cole Aldrich sprains an ankle, I'd say it serves him right.
WHO'S IN: Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma State
BIG WEST: It's been a while since the Big West was relevant, and one of the teams that made it so was Utah State, who has since taken off for the WAC. Still, it's a balanced conference, with every team but one at 7-9 or better, so anything can happen - except for Long Beach winning, because there's no way Monson could coach his way out of a super market.
FAVORITE: Cal State-Northridge. The Matadors (seriously) won the conference with an 11-5 record and snagged the #1 seed. The rank first in scoring and rebounding in the Big West, and have a nice, deep squad.
SLEEPER: Cal State-Fullerton. Not because they're particularly balanced, or particularly good (7-9 in conference), but because they have the player most likely to pull a Curry. And I mean Curry last year when he carried Davidson to the Elite 8, not Curry this year where he was basically a slightly better Lawrence McKenzie. CSF's guard Josh Akognon ended up as the nation's ninth leading scorer at 23.5 points per game. He's a gunner, with an average of 20 attempts per game, but doesn't always connect, shooting just 39% from the floor and 36% from three. Good news for the Titans is he's capable of going off at any time - he scored 29+ ten times this season, including over 40 twice. Is this sounding familiar?
W's PICK: CS-Northridge. It's pretty much a crapshoot in this conference, so I'll go with defensive team, and that's Northridge.
CONFERENCE USA: Memphis has won something like 60 straight conference USA games, which really says more about C-USA than it does about Memphis, which is once again a one-bid league - barring a upset of massive proportions. It might be time for Memphis to look at joining a different league, but then again, they got a pretty good thing going.
FAVORITE: Memphis, obviously. They're killing people.
SLEEPER: UAB. There really isn't a sleeper here anywhere, but I suppose UAB has as good a chance as anybody, and there's a bit of a rivalry here as well. The Blazers best chance is for former Hoosier Robert Vaden to get hot, but he's pretty much gone off the deep end with the out of control chucking since he left Indiana - shooting just 39% for the year with more turnovers than assists. He also sucks a little extra hard against Memphis, going 3-32 in their two games. That is not a typo.
W's PICK: Memphis
MOUNTAIN WEST: Actually one of the more interesting conferences this year, you have two likely locks in Utah and BYU, and three other teams vying for what is likely a maximum of one more spot in San Diego State, New Mexico, and UNLV, who all have various points in their favor. New Mexico had the best conference finish, UNLV has the best non-conference wins, and San Diego State has the best RPI and a sweep of the Rebels.
FAVORITE: Utah. Some people swear by RPI and others think it's a joke, but Utah's RPI rank of 11 is nothing to ignore, and Ken Pomeroy's rankings put them at 26th. The Utes are a solid team, who picked up wins over Gonzaga and LSU in the non-conference season and narrowly missed against Cal, and went 12-4 in a very good Mountain West. The Utes sport a new version of Andrew Bogut in Luke Neville, one of the best big men in the country you've never heard of. The 7-2 Neville led the MWC in rebounding in 8.9 per game and was fourth in scoring at 16.9, all while shooting 61%.
SLEEPER: UNLV. The Rebels are a good team in their own right despite their fifth seed, sporting non-conference wins over Louisville and Arizona. And don't forget their biggest advantage; The tournament is held in Vegas and the Thomas & Mack Center - the Rebs home court.
W's PICK: BYU. Guess who ranks 13th in Pomeroy's ratings? Yep the Cougars. Seems high, but BYU ranks in the top 25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. There really isn't much in terms of huge wins in the non-conference season, with a win over Utah State being their biggest, but near misses against both Wake Forest and Arizona State show how good this team is, not to mention the 7-6 record against the top 50 and winning 9 out of 10 coming into the tournament.
WHO GETS IN?: Utah, BYU, UNLV
PAC 10: A lot of reports seem to suggest that the Pac 10 has fallen off from a very good year last season, but according to the Pomeroy numbers, the Pac is the #2 conference in all that land, with the Big Ten at #5. Sounds better to me than what conference RPI has, where the Big Ten is ranked second. Although the Pac has four teams pretty much locked in, Arizona is still fighting for it's life.
FAVORITE: Washington. The Huskies started the season kind of slowly at 2-5 with a loss to Portland mixed in there, but came on strongly during the conference season to finish in first place at 14-4 with a nice sweep of Arizona State mixed in. Washington had already had a nice, solid base with Quincy Pondexter, Justin Dentmon, and Jon Brockman, and it appears freshman point guard Isaiah Thomas was all they needed to take the next step.
SLEEPER: California. It seems like nobody has really noticed (damn east coast bias) but Cal has been a very good team, finishing third in the Pac 10 and sweeping Washington and Arizona. I wouldn't normally expect a team that lost Ryan Anderson and DeVon Hardin to be ready to compete for a Pac 10 title, but the guard combo of Patrick Christopher and Jerome Randle is one of the best around - this team could do some damage.
W's PICK: UCLA. I mean, come on, it's UCLA. I'm pretty sure they win this every year, and as good as the Washington and Cal guards are, Darren Collison and Josh Shipp are even better.
WHO GETS IN?: UCLA, Cal, Arizona State, Washington, Arizona
SOUTHWESTERN ATHLETIC:
And here we are, the worst rated conference in all the land, the prestigious SWAC.
FAVORITE: Alabama State. The Hornets ran through the SWAC with little difficulty going 16-2. Plus, they have the most awesome name in college ball, Chief Kickingstallionsims, who leads the league in field goal percentage.
SLEEPER: Arkansas-Pine Bluff. The fourth seed at just 11-7 in the SWAC, the Golden Lions are impressive in that they played the nation's most difficult non-conference schedule. Among their feats are losses to Cincinnati by 30, Purdue by 48, and Missouri by 54. They also have a guy named Terrance Calvin who led the team in points, rebounds, and assists, so he's probably good (relatively).
W's PICK: Jackson State. Hell, I don't know, but they're the second place team, they beat Alabama State once already, and these little conferences never seem to send the regular season winner. Plus that chick is from Jackson State.
ATLANTIC 10: I always find the A-10 fascinating, because every year they seem to product several teams that might be dangerous, but just aren't quite good enough to get to the tournament - it's very weird, and this year is no exception. Xavier is a lock for the NCAAs. Dayton (who beat Marquette), Temple (who beat Tennessee), and Rhode Island (who almost won at Duke) are all on the bubble, with Dayton looking likely in and the other two likely out.
FAVORITE: Xavier. The Musketeers have a pretty nice racket going, similar to Memphis but with less March success and more losses, and continue to be the dominant power in the A-10 year after year. This year they went 22-6 while playing one of the country's tougher schedules and notched wins over Missouri and Memphis. Derrick Brown, CJ Anderson, BJ Raymond, Jason Love, and Dante Jackson are all back from the Elite 8 team from last year, and they added freshman point guard Terrell Holloway. Xavier is a bit under the radar thanks to four A-10 losses, but they are absolutely a final four threat.
SLEEPER: Rhode Island. The Rams almost pulled off the shocker of the season, going into Cameron and nearly knocking off Duke back in November behind Jimmy Baron's 8-10 three point shooting, one of the most incredible shooting displays I've ever witnessed. Baron hasn't exactly cooled off since then, shooting an impressive 45% from three for the season while leading the A-10 in attempts. As an overall team, Rhode Island leads the conference in both field goal shooting and three point shooting, and could get hot and win the thing.
W's PICK: Xavier. I can't very well tout them as a final four candidate, and then not expect them to win.
WHO GETS IN?: Xavier, Dayton
TOMORROW: The last few conferences kick off their tournaments, with the ACC, SEC, and, of course, Big Ten - and for some reason they are joined by the Southland.
A couple of teams that were just below the bubble, Cincinnati and Georgetown, would have needed a pretty strong run to merit even the slightest bit of consideration, but it doesn't matter anymore because they were both upset in the first round of the Big East tournament, Cincy by DePaul (who didn't win a Big East game all year) and Georgetown by St Johns. One other team affected by this is Providence, who is still on the bubble, albeit probably on the bottom. Now they face DePaul today instead of Cincy, and will definitely have to win this one and then find a way to upset Louisville if they want a chance.
For the smaller conferences #1 seeds Western Kentucky and North Dakota State won their bids (get ready to get even more sick of the NDSU story than you already are), but Weber State was upset in the semis of the Big Sky Tournament, which breaks my heart, guaranteeing that they are NIT bound.
On to today:
BIG TWELVE: Surprises abound in the Big 12 this year, with both Kansas and Missouri becoming final four candidates (more-so Kansas, obviously) and blowing through their preseason expectations. Texas A&M is a big surprise as having wrapped up a bid before the conference tournament kicks off, while Texas has been a mild disappointment and Baylor absolutely fell on it's face.
FAVORITE: Oklahoma. The Sooners might be able to snag a #1 seed if they can win the Big 12 tourney, and they are capable depending on Willie Warren. You know you're going to get a good game out of National POY favorite Blake Griffin, who led the Big 12 in scoring and rebounding (led nation in rebounding) while shooting 63%. If you toss out the game he got hurt in, he only played four games this year where he didn't record a double/double.
SLEEPER: Texas A&M. The Aggies are one of the hottest teams in the Big 12, coming in having won their last six games including three road wins and wins at home over Texas and Missouri. They went from fringe bubble team to NCAA lock in a matter of three weeks. The Aggies' Josh Carter and Donald Sloan form a potent guard duo, who bring experience and scoring to the table. Carter's three point shooting has fallen off since hitting over 50% two years ago, but he can still get hot as shown by his 7-10 vs. Iowa State.
W's PICK: Kansas. I still can't believe they are this good after losing so much talent off of last year's team, but they are very much for real. The Jayhawks are one of only four teams to rank in the top 20 in the country in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and still have an outside shot at a one seed if everything falls right. Although if Cole Aldrich sprains an ankle, I'd say it serves him right.
WHO'S IN: Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma State
BIG WEST: It's been a while since the Big West was relevant, and one of the teams that made it so was Utah State, who has since taken off for the WAC. Still, it's a balanced conference, with every team but one at 7-9 or better, so anything can happen - except for Long Beach winning, because there's no way Monson could coach his way out of a super market.
FAVORITE: Cal State-Northridge. The Matadors (seriously) won the conference with an 11-5 record and snagged the #1 seed. The rank first in scoring and rebounding in the Big West, and have a nice, deep squad.
SLEEPER: Cal State-Fullerton. Not because they're particularly balanced, or particularly good (7-9 in conference), but because they have the player most likely to pull a Curry. And I mean Curry last year when he carried Davidson to the Elite 8, not Curry this year where he was basically a slightly better Lawrence McKenzie. CSF's guard Josh Akognon ended up as the nation's ninth leading scorer at 23.5 points per game. He's a gunner, with an average of 20 attempts per game, but doesn't always connect, shooting just 39% from the floor and 36% from three. Good news for the Titans is he's capable of going off at any time - he scored 29+ ten times this season, including over 40 twice. Is this sounding familiar?
W's PICK: CS-Northridge. It's pretty much a crapshoot in this conference, so I'll go with defensive team, and that's Northridge.
CONFERENCE USA: Memphis has won something like 60 straight conference USA games, which really says more about C-USA than it does about Memphis, which is once again a one-bid league - barring a upset of massive proportions. It might be time for Memphis to look at joining a different league, but then again, they got a pretty good thing going.
FAVORITE: Memphis, obviously. They're killing people.
SLEEPER: UAB. There really isn't a sleeper here anywhere, but I suppose UAB has as good a chance as anybody, and there's a bit of a rivalry here as well. The Blazers best chance is for former Hoosier Robert Vaden to get hot, but he's pretty much gone off the deep end with the out of control chucking since he left Indiana - shooting just 39% for the year with more turnovers than assists. He also sucks a little extra hard against Memphis, going 3-32 in their two games. That is not a typo.
W's PICK: Memphis
MOUNTAIN WEST: Actually one of the more interesting conferences this year, you have two likely locks in Utah and BYU, and three other teams vying for what is likely a maximum of one more spot in San Diego State, New Mexico, and UNLV, who all have various points in their favor. New Mexico had the best conference finish, UNLV has the best non-conference wins, and San Diego State has the best RPI and a sweep of the Rebels.
FAVORITE: Utah. Some people swear by RPI and others think it's a joke, but Utah's RPI rank of 11 is nothing to ignore, and Ken Pomeroy's rankings put them at 26th. The Utes are a solid team, who picked up wins over Gonzaga and LSU in the non-conference season and narrowly missed against Cal, and went 12-4 in a very good Mountain West. The Utes sport a new version of Andrew Bogut in Luke Neville, one of the best big men in the country you've never heard of. The 7-2 Neville led the MWC in rebounding in 8.9 per game and was fourth in scoring at 16.9, all while shooting 61%.
SLEEPER: UNLV. The Rebels are a good team in their own right despite their fifth seed, sporting non-conference wins over Louisville and Arizona. And don't forget their biggest advantage; The tournament is held in Vegas and the Thomas & Mack Center - the Rebs home court.
W's PICK: BYU. Guess who ranks 13th in Pomeroy's ratings? Yep the Cougars. Seems high, but BYU ranks in the top 25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. There really isn't much in terms of huge wins in the non-conference season, with a win over Utah State being their biggest, but near misses against both Wake Forest and Arizona State show how good this team is, not to mention the 7-6 record against the top 50 and winning 9 out of 10 coming into the tournament.
WHO GETS IN?: Utah, BYU, UNLV
PAC 10: A lot of reports seem to suggest that the Pac 10 has fallen off from a very good year last season, but according to the Pomeroy numbers, the Pac is the #2 conference in all that land, with the Big Ten at #5. Sounds better to me than what conference RPI has, where the Big Ten is ranked second. Although the Pac has four teams pretty much locked in, Arizona is still fighting for it's life.
FAVORITE: Washington. The Huskies started the season kind of slowly at 2-5 with a loss to Portland mixed in there, but came on strongly during the conference season to finish in first place at 14-4 with a nice sweep of Arizona State mixed in. Washington had already had a nice, solid base with Quincy Pondexter, Justin Dentmon, and Jon Brockman, and it appears freshman point guard Isaiah Thomas was all they needed to take the next step.
SLEEPER: California. It seems like nobody has really noticed (damn east coast bias) but Cal has been a very good team, finishing third in the Pac 10 and sweeping Washington and Arizona. I wouldn't normally expect a team that lost Ryan Anderson and DeVon Hardin to be ready to compete for a Pac 10 title, but the guard combo of Patrick Christopher and Jerome Randle is one of the best around - this team could do some damage.
W's PICK: UCLA. I mean, come on, it's UCLA. I'm pretty sure they win this every year, and as good as the Washington and Cal guards are, Darren Collison and Josh Shipp are even better.
WHO GETS IN?: UCLA, Cal, Arizona State, Washington, Arizona
SOUTHWESTERN ATHLETIC:
And here we are, the worst rated conference in all the land, the prestigious SWAC.
FAVORITE: Alabama State. The Hornets ran through the SWAC with little difficulty going 16-2. Plus, they have the most awesome name in college ball, Chief Kickingstallionsims, who leads the league in field goal percentage.
SLEEPER: Arkansas-Pine Bluff. The fourth seed at just 11-7 in the SWAC, the Golden Lions are impressive in that they played the nation's most difficult non-conference schedule. Among their feats are losses to Cincinnati by 30, Purdue by 48, and Missouri by 54. They also have a guy named Terrance Calvin who led the team in points, rebounds, and assists, so he's probably good (relatively).
W's PICK: Jackson State. Hell, I don't know, but they're the second place team, they beat Alabama State once already, and these little conferences never seem to send the regular season winner. Plus that chick is from Jackson State.
ATLANTIC 10: I always find the A-10 fascinating, because every year they seem to product several teams that might be dangerous, but just aren't quite good enough to get to the tournament - it's very weird, and this year is no exception. Xavier is a lock for the NCAAs. Dayton (who beat Marquette), Temple (who beat Tennessee), and Rhode Island (who almost won at Duke) are all on the bubble, with Dayton looking likely in and the other two likely out.
FAVORITE: Xavier. The Musketeers have a pretty nice racket going, similar to Memphis but with less March success and more losses, and continue to be the dominant power in the A-10 year after year. This year they went 22-6 while playing one of the country's tougher schedules and notched wins over Missouri and Memphis. Derrick Brown, CJ Anderson, BJ Raymond, Jason Love, and Dante Jackson are all back from the Elite 8 team from last year, and they added freshman point guard Terrell Holloway. Xavier is a bit under the radar thanks to four A-10 losses, but they are absolutely a final four threat.
SLEEPER: Rhode Island. The Rams almost pulled off the shocker of the season, going into Cameron and nearly knocking off Duke back in November behind Jimmy Baron's 8-10 three point shooting, one of the most incredible shooting displays I've ever witnessed. Baron hasn't exactly cooled off since then, shooting an impressive 45% from three for the season while leading the A-10 in attempts. As an overall team, Rhode Island leads the conference in both field goal shooting and three point shooting, and could get hot and win the thing.
W's PICK: Xavier. I can't very well tout them as a final four candidate, and then not expect them to win.
WHO GETS IN?: Xavier, Dayton
TOMORROW: The last few conferences kick off their tournaments, with the ACC, SEC, and, of course, Big Ten - and for some reason they are joined by the Southland.
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
Hot Tuesday Hoop Action
Last night was a good night for the conference tournaments, with both Siena and VCU winning their respective bids. Both teams have a good chance to knock somebody off in the first round, which makes everything more exciting - unless they catch the Gophers of course. Joining them in the dance are Chattanooga, which derailed the Charleston train after their upset of Davidson and Gonzaga who knocked off St. Mary's - although I still think the Gaels are safe. It kind of sucks Davidson isn't going to make it, since they're a guaranteed first round loss and I bet a bunch of you morons would have had them in the sweet 16.
Here's what we got today (day action!!).
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Mid American Conference: Maybe the best of the perennial one-bid conferences, the MAC can't seem to ever get a second team invited, even a few years ago when a very good Akron team went 26-7 including 13-3 in the conference but lost in the MAC final. This year will be no exception, except in this case there isn't anybody worthy of consideration.
FAVORITE: Bowling Green. It bodes well for the Gophers that Bowling Green is the #1 seed here, and would help them even more if the Eagles could find a way to win this thing. They weren't that much better than anybody else, and actually finished at 10-5 in a four way tie with Akron, Miami (OH), and Buffalo - and they're probably the worst of the four.
SLEEPER: Miami (OH). Miami, Akron, and Buffalo all play very good defense, like top 100 defensive efficiency level, and all are very even offensively. The biggest difference is that the RedHawks are battle tested as shown by the 14th toughest non-conference schedule in the country while Akron and Buffalo are in the 100s. Miami beat Temple, and gave UCLA, Dayton, and Xavier each a battle.
W's PICK: Miami. Even though the record doesn't show it, the Redbirds are a cut above the rest of the conference. One thing is for sure, there's no way Bowling Green wins this.
Western Athletic Conference: Utah State looked to be cruising to a WAC title and a berth in the NCAA tournament before hitting a big bump right at the end of the season and dropping three of their final six games. The regular season WAC championship is still there, but you can probably forget about an at-large berth and the Aggies will have to win the tournament in order to go dancing.
FAVORITE: Nevada. Utah State may have won the WAC, but due to the tournament being in Reno, Nevada has to be considered the favorite. And it's not like they're a horrible team, finishing second in the conference with a split over Utah State and a win over Oregon State on their resume.
SLEEPER: New Mexico State. The Aggies finished in a tie for third but ended up with the five seed due to tie breakers. NMSU boasts the leading scorer (Jahmar Young 18.1ppg) and rebounder (Wendell McKines 10.0rpg) in the WAC. They also lead the conference in scoring and shoot 39.8% from three as a team, 16th in the country. If they get hot they're going to be tough to beat, and they already beat Nevada in Reno.
W's PICK: Utah State. I have to believe in my boys. That blind faith, plus the 14-2 conference record and 10th best offensive efficiency in the country, are all I need to hear.
Big East: The first of the major conferences to get their tournament going, the Big East is in a very weird position because despite the 16 teams in the conference there might not be a single bubble team in the mix. Pitt, UCONN, Louisville, West Virginia, Syracuse, Marquette, and Villanova are all locks. Cincinnati, Georgetown, and Notre Dame were all on the bubble at one point but have knocked themselves off by losing, and Providence had a nice conference season but didn't do enough outside of it and would most likely have to win the tournament to get in. The Friars are the closest thing to a bubble team here, but even making the final might not be enough.
FAVORITE: Louisville. It would be easy enough to make a case for Pitt or UCONN as the favorite, but the Cardinals won the regular-season crown and grabbed the #1 seed, so I'm calling them the favorite. After some struggles early (see: losing somehow to Minnesota) Louisville seems to have figured it out and has won seven straight heading into the BE Tourney. Their killer 2-man punch of Earl Clark and Terrence Williams are playing as well as ever right now. Clark has a double-double in five of the past eight games, and Williams has averaged 16 points, 9 rebounds, and 7 assists in the team's last six games. If the Cardinals can get consistent guard play from Sosa and company they can't just win the BE Tournament, but the whole damn thing.
SLEEPER: Notre Dame. The Irish clearly have talent, as evidenced by their #9 ranking to start the season and their win at Texas early on. After a brutal seven game losing streak in the middle of the Big East schedule they finished up the season 5-3 to finish with an 8-10 conference record. They have a very potent offense (8th in the country in offensive efficiency) and have a ton of experience with their top seven scorers either seniors or juniors including Big East leading scorer and second leading rebounder Luke Harangody. We've seen it happen before with Gerry McNamara and Syracuse a few years ago, could Harangody and the Irish do it again?
W's PICK: Pitt. It pains me to admit it, because I really, truly hate these guys going all the way back to Brandin Knight and Carl Krauser, but I suspect this might be the year they are actually for real. Ugh.
WHO GETS IN: Pitt, Lousville, UCONN, Syracuse, Marquette, West Virginia, and Villanova.
Mid-Eastern Athletic: Well there's no way to really sugarcoat this. The MEAC is one of the worst conferences in the world, ranking 30th out 31 in conference strength this year. They have ranked 30th every year I can find data for (back to 2002) save for 2006, when they ranked 31st. So, yeah, whoever wins this tournament has a pretty good chance of playing in Dayton the Tuesday before the tournament truly begins.
FAVORITE: Morgan State. The Bears went 13-3 in the MEAC, and actually boast a pretty decent defensive squad, ranking 91st in the country in defensive efficiency. The Golden Bears also have a win over Maryland this season.
SLEEPER: Hampton. I mentioned that Morgan State is a good defensive team, but Hampton is even better ranking 67th in defensive efficiency and they swept Morgan State this year. Of course, they also rank 340th in offensive efficiency (out of 344).
W's PICK: Morgan State. Hampton may have their number, but everyone else has Hampton's number at just 6-10 in the conference.
TOMORROW: A whole ton of conferences get their tournaments going: Big Twelve, Big West, C-USA, Mountain West, Pac-10, SWAC, and the A-10. We also get the championship in the Northeastern Conference and the Big Sky.
Here's what we got today (day action!!).
>Mid American Conference: Maybe the best of the perennial one-bid conferences, the MAC can't seem to ever get a second team invited, even a few years ago when a very good Akron team went 26-7 including 13-3 in the conference but lost in the MAC final. This year will be no exception, except in this case there isn't anybody worthy of consideration.
FAVORITE: Bowling Green. It bodes well for the Gophers that Bowling Green is the #1 seed here, and would help them even more if the Eagles could find a way to win this thing. They weren't that much better than anybody else, and actually finished at 10-5 in a four way tie with Akron, Miami (OH), and Buffalo - and they're probably the worst of the four.
SLEEPER: Miami (OH). Miami, Akron, and Buffalo all play very good defense, like top 100 defensive efficiency level, and all are very even offensively. The biggest difference is that the RedHawks are battle tested as shown by the 14th toughest non-conference schedule in the country while Akron and Buffalo are in the 100s. Miami beat Temple, and gave UCLA, Dayton, and Xavier each a battle.
W's PICK: Miami. Even though the record doesn't show it, the Redbirds are a cut above the rest of the conference. One thing is for sure, there's no way Bowling Green wins this.
Western Athletic Conference: Utah State looked to be cruising to a WAC title and a berth in the NCAA tournament before hitting a big bump right at the end of the season and dropping three of their final six games. The regular season WAC championship is still there, but you can probably forget about an at-large berth and the Aggies will have to win the tournament in order to go dancing.
FAVORITE: Nevada. Utah State may have won the WAC, but due to the tournament being in Reno, Nevada has to be considered the favorite. And it's not like they're a horrible team, finishing second in the conference with a split over Utah State and a win over Oregon State on their resume.
SLEEPER: New Mexico State. The Aggies finished in a tie for third but ended up with the five seed due to tie breakers. NMSU boasts the leading scorer (Jahmar Young 18.1ppg) and rebounder (Wendell McKines 10.0rpg) in the WAC. They also lead the conference in scoring and shoot 39.8% from three as a team, 16th in the country. If they get hot they're going to be tough to beat, and they already beat Nevada in Reno.
W's PICK: Utah State. I have to believe in my boys. That blind faith, plus the 14-2 conference record and 10th best offensive efficiency in the country, are all I need to hear.
Big East: The first of the major conferences to get their tournament going, the Big East is in a very weird position because despite the 16 teams in the conference there might not be a single bubble team in the mix. Pitt, UCONN, Louisville, West Virginia, Syracuse, Marquette, and Villanova are all locks. Cincinnati, Georgetown, and Notre Dame were all on the bubble at one point but have knocked themselves off by losing, and Providence had a nice conference season but didn't do enough outside of it and would most likely have to win the tournament to get in. The Friars are the closest thing to a bubble team here, but even making the final might not be enough.
FAVORITE: Louisville. It would be easy enough to make a case for Pitt or UCONN as the favorite, but the Cardinals won the regular-season crown and grabbed the #1 seed, so I'm calling them the favorite. After some struggles early (see: losing somehow to Minnesota) Louisville seems to have figured it out and has won seven straight heading into the BE Tourney. Their killer 2-man punch of Earl Clark and Terrence Williams are playing as well as ever right now. Clark has a double-double in five of the past eight games, and Williams has averaged 16 points, 9 rebounds, and 7 assists in the team's last six games. If the Cardinals can get consistent guard play from Sosa and company they can't just win the BE Tournament, but the whole damn thing.
SLEEPER: Notre Dame. The Irish clearly have talent, as evidenced by their #9 ranking to start the season and their win at Texas early on. After a brutal seven game losing streak in the middle of the Big East schedule they finished up the season 5-3 to finish with an 8-10 conference record. They have a very potent offense (8th in the country in offensive efficiency) and have a ton of experience with their top seven scorers either seniors or juniors including Big East leading scorer and second leading rebounder Luke Harangody. We've seen it happen before with Gerry McNamara and Syracuse a few years ago, could Harangody and the Irish do it again?
W's PICK: Pitt. It pains me to admit it, because I really, truly hate these guys going all the way back to Brandin Knight and Carl Krauser, but I suspect this might be the year they are actually for real. Ugh.
WHO GETS IN: Pitt, Lousville, UCONN, Syracuse, Marquette, West Virginia, and Villanova.
Mid-Eastern Athletic: Well there's no way to really sugarcoat this. The MEAC is one of the worst conferences in the world, ranking 30th out 31 in conference strength this year. They have ranked 30th every year I can find data for (back to 2002) save for 2006, when they ranked 31st. So, yeah, whoever wins this tournament has a pretty good chance of playing in Dayton the Tuesday before the tournament truly begins.
FAVORITE: Morgan State. The Bears went 13-3 in the MEAC, and actually boast a pretty decent defensive squad, ranking 91st in the country in defensive efficiency. The Golden Bears also have a win over Maryland this season.
SLEEPER: Hampton. I mentioned that Morgan State is a good defensive team, but Hampton is even better ranking 67th in defensive efficiency and they swept Morgan State this year. Of course, they also rank 340th in offensive efficiency (out of 344).
W's PICK: Morgan State. Hampton may have their number, but everyone else has Hampton's number at just 6-10 in the conference.
TOMORROW: A whole ton of conferences get their tournaments going: Big Twelve, Big West, C-USA, Mountain West, Pac-10, SWAC, and the A-10. We also get the championship in the Northeastern Conference and the Big Sky.
Monday, March 9, 2009
First Fantasy Baseball Draft of the Year
I was so antsy for fantasy baseball that I signed up for a free yahoo league and drafted a team tonight. Things kind of fell apart because it moved too quickly (autodrafters) and it got to the point I couldn't cross people off my list so I kind of had to wing it (and also I was drinking). Here's where I ended up
C - Matt Wieters (buying into the hype)
1b/3b - Chris Davis (ditto, but with some production to back it up)
2b - Howie Kendrick (sort of ended up here by default, could be worse)
3b - Aramis Ramirez (got him when I didn't realize it was my turn and I timed out, but I was considering him here anyway so it's ok)
SS/2B/OF - Alexei Ramirez (good in the outfield, awesome as a SS)
OF - Grady Sizemore (40-40 this year?)
OF - Matt Holliday (leaving Coors will hurt, but I still think .300/.370/.500 with 25 homers and 20 steals is possible and even likely)
OF - Justin Upton (LOVE this guy this year. LOVE him.)
UTIL - OF Lastings Milledge (either going to breakout this year or whither away, betting on the breakout)
BENCH- SS Orlando Cabrera (don't particularly like him, but need a backup SS)
BENCH - 1B/3B/C Pablo Sandoval (could be a rookie of the year candidate in the NL, and qualifies at catcher)
BENCH - OF Carlos Gomez (so call me a homer. He gives me steals if nothing else - or at least did the first half of last year. Plus, Snacks says he will be thirty/thirty someday)
SP - Tim Lincecum (what's there to say - dude rocks)
SP - Rich Harden (don't particularly care for this pick - should have taken Cliff Lee or Felix Hernandez - both were available - instead. If Harden stays healthy it could still work)
SP - Ricky Nolasco (quietly had a great year last year, and PECOTO loves him)
SP - Zack Grienke (I dissed him last year, but now studying the numbers I can admit he looks like the real deal - not JD Durbin)
RP - Mariano Rivera - seems old and all, but a 0.67 WHIP last year? I bet this dude is throwing PECOTA into a tizzy, who could compare?
RP - Jose Valverde - 44 saves last year, and also is a free agent this year and will likely be traded to a contender = more saves
RP - Chad Qualls - PECOTA doesn't like him, but like F computers man. Bobby Fischer rules!
BENCH - SP Justin Duchscherer - was an all-star last year before getting hurt, and was helped by an insane .238 BABIP. Still, seems like a good gamble with one of my last picks.
BENCH- SP Jason Schmidt - I have no idea what to expect since he hasn't pitched since like 2005. Other choice here was Ian Snell of the Pirates, and although he is supposed to have potential the fact that he got the crap kicked out of him last year and he pitches for an awful team scared me away. Who knows, Schmidt might work out.
Guys I love who I missed - Evan Longoria, BJ Upton, Cole Hamels (:sadface:), Carl Crawford, Dan Haren, Nick Markakis, Matt Kemp, Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Jon Lester, Francisco Liriano, James Loney, Conor Jackson, Scott Baker, Carlos Guillen, Alex Gordon, Chris Iannetta (shut up Sidler), Adam Jones. I also left Jason Kubel out there. It makes me sad inside. Maybe I should drop Gomez, but I might need the steals.
DWG Bubble Watch
Here's how I see it.
CONFERENCE WINNERS (projected) - 31:
AMERICAN EAST: Binghampton
ACC: North Carolina
ATLANTIC SUN: East Tennessee State
ATLANTIC 10: Xavier
BIG TEN: Michigan State
BIG EAST: Louisville
BIG SKY: Weber State
BIG SOUTH: Radford
BIG WEST: CS-Northridge
BIG 12: Oklahoma
COLONIAL: VCU
C-USA: Memphis
HORIZON: Butler
MAC: Bowling Green
MAAC: Siena
MEAC: Morgan State
MISSOURI VALLEY: Northern Iowa
MOUNTAIN WEST: Utah
NORTHEAST: Robert Morris
OHIO VALLEY: Morehead State
PAC 10: Washington
PATRIOT: American
SEC: LSU
SOUTHERN: Chattanooga
SOUTHLAND: Stephen F. Austin
SWAC: Alabama State
SUMMIT: North Dakota State
SUN BELT: Western Kentucky
WEST COAST: Gonzaga
WAC: Utah State
IVY: Cornell
LOCKS FOR BIDS - 24
ACC (4): Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson, Florida State
ATLANTIC 10 (1): Dayton
BIG EAST (6): Pitt, UCONN, Marquette, Syracuse, West Virginia, Villanova
BIG TEN (3): Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois
BIG 12 (4): Kansas, Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M
PAC 10 (3): UCLA, Cal, Arizona State
SEC (1): Tennessee
MWC (1): BYU
WCC (1): St Marys - I don't see anyway they are kept out, barring a loss to E. Wash
So by my reckoning, that leaves 10 bids for about 20 teams. Here's how I would rank their chances:
1. Oklahoma State - 20-10 (9-7), RPI 26, SOS 8, 3-9 vs. Top 50, 8-10 vs. Top 100
2. Michigan - 19-12 (9-9), RPI 42, SOS 10, 6-9 vs. top 50, 10-11 vs. top 100
3. Creighton – 26-7 (14-4), RPI 39, SOS 105, 3-2 vs. top 50, 9-5 vs. top 100
4. Boston College - 21-10 (9-7), RPI 54, SOS 64, 4-4 vs. top 50, 8-8 vs. top 100
5. Ohio State - 20-9 (10-8), RPI 38, SOS 32, 5-8 vs. top 50, 9-9 vs. top 100
6. Minnesota - 21-9 (9-9), RPI 41, SOS 42, 5-7 vs. top 50, 8-9 vs. top 100
7. Utah State – 27-4 (14-2), RPI 27, SOS 133, 1-2 vs. top 50, 3-3 vs. top 100
8. Arizona - 19-12 (9-9), RPI 52, SOS 29, 5-8 vs. top 50, 9-11 vs. top 100
9. New Mexico – 21-10 (12-4), RPI 57, SOS 84, 3-4 vs. top 50, 5-7 vs. top 100
10. Florida - 22-9 (9-7), RPI 49, SOS 92, 2-6 vs. top 50, 9-8 vs. top 100
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11. UNLV – 21-9 (9-7), RPI 55, SOS 87, 4-4 vs. top 50, 8-6 vs. top 100
12. Penn State - 21-10 (10-8), RPI 61, SOS 95, 6-8 vs. top 50, 7-9 vs. top 100
13. Siena -25-7 (16-2), RPI 24, SOS 67, 0-4 vs. top 50, 4-5 vs. top 100
14. South Carolina - 21-8 (10-6), RPI 48, SOS 91, 1-5 vs. top 50, 7-7 vs. top 100
15. Miami - 18-11 (7-9), RPI 51, SOS 23, 2-7 vs. top 50, 7-10 vs. top 100
16. Temple – 19-11 (11-5), RPI 40, SOS 35, 1-5 vs. top 50, 4-7 vs. top 100
17. San Diego State – 21-8 (11-5), RPI 44, SOS 61, 1-5 vs. top 50, 4-7 vs. top 100
18. Maryland - 18-12 (7-9), RPI 65, SOS 26, 3-8 vs. top 50, 8-10 vs. top 100
19. Virginia Tech - 17-13 (7-9), RPI 59, SOS 25, 2-8 vs. top 50, 6-11 vs. top 100
20. Providence - 18-12 (10-8), RPI 71, SOS 48, 2-8 vs. top 50, 6-12 vs. top 100
21. Rhode Island – 22-9 (11-5), RPI 63, SOS 142, 2-5 vs. top 50, 6-6 vs. top 100
22. Kansas State - 21-10 (9-7), RPI 77, SOS 112, 3-5 vs. top 50, 5-8 vs. top 100
23. Auburn - 21-10 (10-6), RPI 64, SOS 69, 2-5 vs. top 50, 5-9 vs. top 100
I'm glad I did this. I thought they were closer to out than in, but now I feel a lot better about the Gophers chances. Of course, things could go all wonky in the conference tournaments. If Siena and Utah State win, they are no longer on the bubble and open up spots for other teams. If Butler loses, that takes away a bid from somebody. Same with any of the major conference tournaments, although it's pretty unlikely with the exception of the SEC, which is so weak it wouldn't surprise me to see a bubble team like South Carolina or even Auburn win it, and that takes a way a bid.
In my opinion, it all boils down to the first round Big Ten Tournament game for the Gophers. If they beat Northwestern, which would give the Gophers another win over a top 100 team, they are in - locked. If they lose, unless a lot of weird things happen and all other bubble teams around them are also upset in their first round games, it's all about the NIT, baby.
CONFERENCE WINNERS (projected) - 31:
AMERICAN EAST: Binghampton
ACC: North Carolina
ATLANTIC SUN: East Tennessee State
ATLANTIC 10: Xavier
BIG TEN: Michigan State
BIG EAST: Louisville
BIG SKY: Weber State
BIG SOUTH: Radford
BIG WEST: CS-Northridge
BIG 12: Oklahoma
COLONIAL: VCU
C-USA: Memphis
HORIZON: Butler
MAC: Bowling Green
MAAC: Siena
MEAC: Morgan State
MISSOURI VALLEY: Northern Iowa
MOUNTAIN WEST: Utah
NORTHEAST: Robert Morris
OHIO VALLEY: Morehead State
PAC 10: Washington
PATRIOT: American
SEC: LSU
SOUTHERN: Chattanooga
SOUTHLAND: Stephen F. Austin
SWAC: Alabama State
SUMMIT: North Dakota State
SUN BELT: Western Kentucky
WEST COAST: Gonzaga
WAC: Utah State
IVY: Cornell
LOCKS FOR BIDS - 24
ACC (4): Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson, Florida State
ATLANTIC 10 (1): Dayton
BIG EAST (6): Pitt, UCONN, Marquette, Syracuse, West Virginia, Villanova
BIG TEN (3): Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois
BIG 12 (4): Kansas, Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M
PAC 10 (3): UCLA, Cal, Arizona State
SEC (1): Tennessee
MWC (1): BYU
WCC (1): St Marys - I don't see anyway they are kept out, barring a loss to E. Wash
So by my reckoning, that leaves 10 bids for about 20 teams. Here's how I would rank their chances:
1. Oklahoma State - 20-10 (9-7), RPI 26, SOS 8, 3-9 vs. Top 50, 8-10 vs. Top 100
2. Michigan - 19-12 (9-9), RPI 42, SOS 10, 6-9 vs. top 50, 10-11 vs. top 100
3. Creighton – 26-7 (14-4), RPI 39, SOS 105, 3-2 vs. top 50, 9-5 vs. top 100
4. Boston College - 21-10 (9-7), RPI 54, SOS 64, 4-4 vs. top 50, 8-8 vs. top 100
5. Ohio State - 20-9 (10-8), RPI 38, SOS 32, 5-8 vs. top 50, 9-9 vs. top 100
6. Minnesota - 21-9 (9-9), RPI 41, SOS 42, 5-7 vs. top 50, 8-9 vs. top 100
7. Utah State – 27-4 (14-2), RPI 27, SOS 133, 1-2 vs. top 50, 3-3 vs. top 100
8. Arizona - 19-12 (9-9), RPI 52, SOS 29, 5-8 vs. top 50, 9-11 vs. top 100
9. New Mexico – 21-10 (12-4), RPI 57, SOS 84, 3-4 vs. top 50, 5-7 vs. top 100
10. Florida - 22-9 (9-7), RPI 49, SOS 92, 2-6 vs. top 50, 9-8 vs. top 100
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11. UNLV – 21-9 (9-7), RPI 55, SOS 87, 4-4 vs. top 50, 8-6 vs. top 100
12. Penn State - 21-10 (10-8), RPI 61, SOS 95, 6-8 vs. top 50, 7-9 vs. top 100
13. Siena -25-7 (16-2), RPI 24, SOS 67, 0-4 vs. top 50, 4-5 vs. top 100
14. South Carolina - 21-8 (10-6), RPI 48, SOS 91, 1-5 vs. top 50, 7-7 vs. top 100
15. Miami - 18-11 (7-9), RPI 51, SOS 23, 2-7 vs. top 50, 7-10 vs. top 100
16. Temple – 19-11 (11-5), RPI 40, SOS 35, 1-5 vs. top 50, 4-7 vs. top 100
17. San Diego State – 21-8 (11-5), RPI 44, SOS 61, 1-5 vs. top 50, 4-7 vs. top 100
18. Maryland - 18-12 (7-9), RPI 65, SOS 26, 3-8 vs. top 50, 8-10 vs. top 100
19. Virginia Tech - 17-13 (7-9), RPI 59, SOS 25, 2-8 vs. top 50, 6-11 vs. top 100
20. Providence - 18-12 (10-8), RPI 71, SOS 48, 2-8 vs. top 50, 6-12 vs. top 100
21. Rhode Island – 22-9 (11-5), RPI 63, SOS 142, 2-5 vs. top 50, 6-6 vs. top 100
22. Kansas State - 21-10 (9-7), RPI 77, SOS 112, 3-5 vs. top 50, 5-8 vs. top 100
23. Auburn - 21-10 (10-6), RPI 64, SOS 69, 2-5 vs. top 50, 5-9 vs. top 100
I'm glad I did this. I thought they were closer to out than in, but now I feel a lot better about the Gophers chances. Of course, things could go all wonky in the conference tournaments. If Siena and Utah State win, they are no longer on the bubble and open up spots for other teams. If Butler loses, that takes away a bid from somebody. Same with any of the major conference tournaments, although it's pretty unlikely with the exception of the SEC, which is so weak it wouldn't surprise me to see a bubble team like South Carolina or even Auburn win it, and that takes a way a bid.
In my opinion, it all boils down to the first round Big Ten Tournament game for the Gophers. If they beat Northwestern, which would give the Gophers another win over a top 100 team, they are in - locked. If they lose, unless a lot of weird things happen and all other bubble teams around them are also upset in their first round games, it's all about the NIT, baby.
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