Showing posts with label Andrew Luck. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Andrew Luck. Show all posts

Tuesday, September 4, 2012

My 10 Predictions for the NFL season

1.  Dez Bryant is going to be a monster.  Seriously.  Physically he's one of the most gifted wideouts in the league.  Everybody knows most WRs breakout in their third season, and his first two years (45/561/6 and 63/928/9) point two a guy who is figuring it out (on the field, at least).  Dude may be a mess at times, but assuming he doesn't do something stupid like bringing a pound of weed through airport security or beating up a fan for making mom jokes and getting suspended he's going to be huge.  I'm talking 90/1,400/12 this year.  Of course, Tony Romo completely sucks donkey balls so it's possible he's too scared to throw it down field and just dinks it to Miles Austin and those TEs all the time, in which case I'd put the odds at 50/50 of Bryant blowing up Romo's car.

2.  Ryan Williams will be one of the better backs in the league.  He has to beat out Beanie Wells first, but let's be honest here that's not really going to be a problem. Williams was an absolute monster for Virginia Tech for two years, breaking the Va Tech single season rushing record and the ACC single season TD record, before the Cardinals took him early in the second round of the 2011 draft.  He then destroyed his knee on his first carry in his first preseason game, which is why Arizona fans and football fans in general were subjected to another year watching fatass Wells fall down again and again.  Williams is a threat to score every time he has the ball.  Wells is a threat to become the next Lendale White.  Of course, Williams also missed all of last year and the second half of his final college season due to injury so he's got a bit of china doll syndrome possibly going on so maybe everyone will get lucky and get to watch Wells again.  Joy!

3.  The Falcons are going to miss the playoffs.  Way way way way way too much hype here, and whenever that happens the results are generally in the exact opposite direction.   Matt Ryan is going to throw for 2 billion yards with Julio Jones and Roddy White both somehow catching for 1.5 billion apiece!  Jacquizz Rodgers is the next NFL super star!  Michael Turner will be rejuvenated by this holy crap passing offense!  Please.  Worst nicknamed player ever Matty Ice hasn't won anything, Michael Turner is going to Shaun Alexander this year, and Rodgers isn't the kind of runner who can be a feature back.  Atlanta won't be able to run this year, which means Ryan is going to have to throw a ton and even if his (and those wideouts who I confess are pretty damn good) stats look great he's also going to throw 40 interceptions.  Plus their defense sucks.  Everyone is going to feel stupid at the end of the year when they suck except me because I'm right, and then you're going to acknowledge me as your god.

4.  Percy Harvin is going to have a break out season.  No, he's not going be like Dez Bryant or anything, but Harvin should finally break the 1,000 receiving yards barrier and probably hit 100 catches.  You can see it coming if you're a Vikes fan who's been watching him for three years, but just to put some quantitativeness to the qualitativeness - from week 7 forward last year (which is when Christian Ponder) took over, Harvin touched the ball 100 times which was the most in the NFL.  Second place was Wes Welkerbury with 76.  Yeah, Ponder digs him some Percy.  He does get more touches than most WR due to the lining up in the backfield he does, particularly once AP went down to injury but even prior to that he was averaging more than 3 rush attempts per game.  Looking forward to this.

5.  Antonio Gates will break TE records.  I know everyone is all over Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham as the world's greatest tight ends - and rightly so because they had the two best seasons by a TE ever last year - but don't forget about Antonio Gates, who is primed to have an even better season that either of those two did last year.  You know Philip Rivers is going to throw for a whole bunch of yards just as sure as you know he's going to cry at least once this year, but who gets those yards?  Vincent Jackson is gone (#2 in catches last year).  Mike Tolbert (#3) is as well, and Vincent Brown (who was supposed to ascend to their new #1 WR) is out half the season with an injury.  That leaves Malcom Floyd (please) and Gates as your two main targets, and Antonio is finally healthy again after two injury plagued seasons where he still managed to average 57/780/8.  Before getting hurt he had the best 1.5 seasons of his career, and everything points to a career year for him - expect him to break 1,400 receiving yards, a new TE record.

6.  Andrew Luck will be better than Robert Griffin III this year.  Seems like 95% of opinions I've read on these two say Luck will have the better career but RG3 will be better this season.  Well I think Luck's better in both cases.  Nobody argues he's the more polished QB already, so the other two factors would be if Luck struggles to pick-up the offensive scheme and if RG3 had markedly better weapons surrounding him, but I don't see it in either case.  Luck basically called his own plays at Stanford, a team run by a "cerebral" former QB type like Jim Harbaugh (and by cerebral I mean in comparison to blockheads like Brad Childress) so I don't think he's going to majorly struggle with any system he's asked to run.  And as far as weapons, both Indy and the Skins are a mess at RB although I'd give the edge to the Colts based on at least having a clear idea of who is going to get the majority of the carries, and I'll take Reggie Wayne/Austin Collie over Santana Moss/Pierre Garcon every time.  What am I missing?  Clear advantage to Luck.  Also garcon means boy.

7.  The Chiefs are going to suck.  I have no idea why it seems everyone is picking these guys to win the AFC East this year.  None at all.  They're horrid.  The have three good offensive players and two play the same position and were both hurt all or most of last year (fun fact:  Jamaal Charles' middle name is Rashaad - that's a lot of a's), and the other one is Dwayne Bowe who is likely to end up shooting himself in the leg or getting suspended after buying weed in Mexico.  Matt Cassell might very well be the worst starting QB in the league, and the Chiefs have one of the worst pass defenses in the entire NFL going up against the pass happy Chargers (6th in passing yds last year) and Raiders (11th and should be even better) and a team that just upgraded from Tim Tebow to Peyton Manning.  Speaking of which....

8.  The Broncos will win their division.  Yes, I'm on board the Peyton train.  I kind of have to be since I drafted him like 15 years ago in our inaugural keeper league draft and have held him since, but I truly believe he can make a huge difference for Denver.  Demaryius Thomas has all the skill to be a lead WR and Eric Decker has both the game and the smarts to become Peyton's #1 target or at least a 1b to Thomas's 1a.  That offense should be good enough to put up some points, and that hyper aggressive defense (big on sacks and turnovers, low on actual stops) could turn for the better.   I'd feel better if I had heard of anyone on their offensive line and if their running back was someone better than Willis McGahee, but I feel pretty safe putting my blind trust in Peyton Manning and Champ Bailey.  Especially if this was 2003.

9.  The Saints are going to the Super Bowl.  Seems to me like everybody is ignoring the Saints, and I rarely hear them come up when postseason stuff is talked about.  In fact I don't think anyone on ESPN picked them to make the Super Bowl, but you best believe they'll be there.  They have the best QB on the planet (or #2 after Rodgers) who has a whole mess of weapons to throw too, and while most teams with three running backs have a mess on their hands they have three guys who would all start in many NFL situations.  That offense is straight up sick.  And you don't think that defense is going to be playing with a major chip on their shoulder?  Don't forget if this team doesn't see Alex Smith miraculously morph into Joe Unitas they're probably in the Super Bowl last year (they would've beat the Giants, I promise).  Now take that same basic team (oh no, Robert Meachem left!) and add a big ole steamy plate of gritty emotions?  They'll be there.  Other playoff teams:  NY Giants, Packers, 49ers, Lions, Eagles, Broncos, Texans, Pats, Ravens, Steelers, and Chargers.  And your champ.....

10.  The Ravens will win the Super Bowl.  That's right, I'm backing Joe Flacco.  I think we've got a perfect storm here.  A young QB coming into his own with an offense being revamped to take advantage of his talents and a WR (Torrey Smith) coming into his own right along with him.  Maybe the best offensive weapon in the game (Ray Rice) and one of the best defensive players (Haloti Ngata).  Veterans who can still play who know this might be their last shot (Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Matt Birk, Anquan Boldin).  And, similar to the Saints, you've got a team here who was very close to making the Super Bowl last year (if Lee Evans catches one more pass they're in) and has done very little tinkering.  Terrell Suggs injury is a bit of an unfortunate wrinkle, but so is your face.


HONORABLE MENTION:  Others who will be awesome - Eli Manning, Jay Cutler, LeSean McCoy, Chris Johnson, Matt Forte, Steven Jackson, Carson Palmer, Marshawn Lynch, Brandon Marshall, Hakeem Nicks, Marques Colston, Greg Olsen, David Wilson, Mark Ingram, and Brandon Pettigrew.  Those will suck - Cam Newton, Mike Vick, Darren McFadden, Arian Foster, Frank Gore, Ahmad Bradshaw, every Lions RB, Jordy Nelson, Victor Cruz, Miles Austin, Steve Johnson, and Vernon Davis.

BOOK IT.

Thursday, August 16, 2012

I'm Back Now

What's up, nerds?  I've been in Denver this past week to visit Snacks, Mrs. Snacks, and new Baby Snacks and as such kept getting too drunk to post at night.  But now I'm back.  First, a few things about Denver:

1.  We went to a Rockies' game at Coors Field and I was impressed.  Very nice stadium, especially considering how old it is (relatively).  It reminded me quite a bit of the newer stadiums I've been too, including Target Field, but considering the Rockies' came into existence in 1993 and it went up a few years later, I was impressed.  Even more impressive was the security.  We had two tickets in their club level and two normal poor people tickets, so the plan was for me and the Mrs. to go into the club, then I'd go out with both tickets and get Snacks, then Mrs. W would go out and get Mrs. Snacks and everybody wins except for the Rockies.  The same scam Dawger used to get us into the Legends' Club at Target Field that worked flawlessly.  One problem - at Coors they're on the lookout for it.

When you go into the Club area they stamp the back of your ticket, and when you leave they stamp your hand.  Then when you try to get back in you can either show your stamp or you need an unstamped ticket.  If you have a stamped ticket but no stamp on your hand they won't let you back in.  Actually, Snacks managed to sweet talk his way in, but Mrs. Snacks was unable too.  So we all just went and sat somewhere else because nobody was there anyway because the Rockies totally blow.  Also Cuddyer didn't play that night which sucked because I wanted to be able to say I've booed him at two different parks for two different teams.  Ah well.

The other problem with Coors, besides the fun-hating, is that if you want to get a Rockies' shirt with one of their guy's names on the back you have almost zero options.  The only guys they had were Carlos Gonzalez, Tulowitzki, the manager, the mascot, or Giambi who I'm not even sure is on the team anymore.  I realize they're pretty faceless as a team and all, but when you can get an Alexei Casilla shirt at Target Field you'd think the Rocks would be a little more generous with the choices.

2.  Denver is right up there with Portland when it comes to homeless people, to the point where we could play the classic game, "Hippie or homeless" that we invented last time we were in Portland.  I'd give Denver the edge with the homeless dudes, but Portland wins for most hippies.  In both cities they're littered around the place to the point where you have to be careful you don't trip over anybody who is either passed our or sleeping on the ground.  Common denominators?  Horrid college basketball programs and a massive love of weed.  Drugs ruin lives, kids.  You'll either end up drunk under a bridge with a sign begging for money and claiming you're a veteran of some war or sleeping on the sidewalk with those weird holes in your ears wearing a knitted poncho and carrying around a skateboard.  Choose wisely.

3.   Denver was seemingly constructed by someone playing Sim City, and not just anyone but a child with severe ADD.  You can drive down a street and have some really nice bars next to some scary bars where you'd get murdered if you looked at them for too long.  Pretty much the same thing with houses - mansions next to houses that might actually currently be on fire.  Nothing makes sense.  A "long-term stay" business hotel a block from a Walgreen's in a neighborhood so bad the hotel clerk tells you "I wouldn't walk there."  A knock-off of Grand Avenue, but without any bars.  It was just weird and never made sense.  The only area I saw that made sense was the "Bail Bonds District", which was an intersection with seven different bail bonds places (no joke, seven.)  Normally you might feel a bit uneasy in that kind of neighborhood, but never fear because less than a block down was a restaurant that served things like duck liver mousse and escargot.  Bizarre.  Decent town, I had a lot of fun, but really kind of just ok. 

And that's that. Now for a couple real quick sports things because man am I tired:

1.  I kind of understand why the Nationals are planning on shutting Strasburg down when he hits 180 innings.  I completely disagree with it, however.   You're taking a positive (having Strasburg all year and for the playoffs) and eliminating it based on the fear of a negative (future arm issues for Strasburg).   I'm not 100% sure but I'm fairly certain there is no correlation between Tommy John surgery and future injuries, and Strasburg's surgery was basically two full years ago at this point, and it's generally said it takes 1 year to get back to normal.  His velocity is pretty close to what it was pre-surgery (pre = 97.3, current = 95.8) and although he's throwing his curve less it's been more effective - so yes, he's pretty much the same pitcher.  Smarter people and better writers than me (which is pretty much everybody) have tackled this already so I won't dwell on it, but it seems to me he's just as likely to get injured in his first Spring Training start next year, a random start in Mid-July next season, or at some point this year.  This is the opposite of taking a gamble - it's playing it safe to the extreme.  It's like having a 3-to-1 chip lead in a poker tournament and offering a 50/50 chop.  It's like getting 11 against a 6 in blackjack and not doubling down.  Horrid.

And if you're dead set on limiting him to 180 innings, why not skip a start earlier in the season here and there?  If you'd skipped a random start here or there vs. the Padres or Rockies or other shitty team he might still have 60-70 innings left instead of 40.  Or use him out of the bullpen.  Or do something.  By any metric you look at he and Gio Gonzalez have been the two most valuable players for the Nats this year, and Gio's probably been a little bit lucky while Stras is Stras.  I just don't get it.  How many shots do you really get at the playoffs?  Even if the future looks bright there's a billion things that could go wrong and this could be Washington's one and only shot.  And they're going to go into it without their best weapon.  Sad.  I almost hope Strasburg gets hurt early next year, but then I wouldn't get to watch him so I really don't.  Just almost.

-  I don't really want to talk Twins, so I won't much, but even if the lineup looks pretty much set already for next year (barring a trade of Morneau or Span) I'm very curious to see how the rotation turns out.  I mean, from 2-9 you have Mauer, Morneau, Carroll, Plouffe, Dozier, Willingham, Span, and Revere with Doumit your likely DH (along with M&M).  For better of for worse, that's probably what we're seeing next season.  They may sign a cheap free agent to help the middle infield like Jeff Keppinger (I would approve of this) or Maicer Izturis (I would not) or maybe some hitting type depth like Ty Wigginton (pass) or Ryan Spilborghs (omg gross) but basically that's your lineup.  The pitching though?

Lots of candidates.  Scott Baker will get a hell of a lot less interest as a free agent than he would have if he had, you know, pitched this year.  I can't see the Twins picking up his option at $9 million, but I can see them trying to resign him on the cheap so he could be back.  Pavano will hopefully not be around unless they can get him for super cheap, which again, may be possible since he's been injured nearly all year.  Nick Blackburn sucks donkey balls, but seeing as the Twins' are on the hook for $5.5m next year he's going to get every opportunity to be in the rotation.  Then you've got the young guys:  Scott Diamond (best pitcher on the team this and should be in the rotation next year for sure), Sam Deduno (his numbers mask how shitty he's actually been, but there is some potential here), P.J. Walters (remember when he had those couple good starts?), Cole DeVries (perfectly fits the teams no-walks no-Ks mandate), and Liam Hendriks (please god no).  Not to mention guys who have mainly been in the bullpen with starting experience in their past (Swarzak, Manship, Waldrop) and hopeful prospects (Gibson), guys picked up in trades (Pedro Hernandez), retreads (Luke French who the Twins apparently have), and guys I've never heard of (everyone at New Britain right now).

Let's be clear - it's a platter full of crap no doubt, but other than Scott Diamond nobody is guaranteed to be in the rotation next year.  You have four other spots and 13 possibilities (Baker, Pavano, Blackburn, Deduno, Walters, DeVries, Hendriks, Swarzak, Manship, Waldrop, Gibson, Hernandez, and French) not to mention a bunch of question marks at AA and the possibility the Twins sign a shitty free agent as per usual (Derek Lowe?  Joe Saunders? - both fit their shitty philosophy perfectly).  Free Agent wise your best (realistic) scenario is they find a way to sign Brandon McCarthy to a team friendly contract.  Worst case they sign one of the above dudes.  Actually worst case is they sign Dice-K, but I can't imagine even this team is that misguided.  It's a mess, but at least it's an interesting mess.  Or that's what I'm telling myself.  You have to be able to get a couple good pitchers out of 13 candidates, right?  Please?

- Lastly, can somebody help me out with the Luck vs. Robert Griffin III debate?  Luck started for three very productive years setting the single season and all-time records in the Pac-10 for completion percentage winning a dickload of awards (including two Hesiman runner-ups) and basically setting every Stanford record ever for a QB.  He also did it while running a pro-style offense under the tutelage of a former NFL QB, already known as a cerebral player, who then came in and made Alex Smith suddenly understand how to be an NFL QB, and did it while (in his senior season at least) basically calling all his own plays at the line like a second Peyton Manning.

Griffin won Big 12 freshman of the year in 2008 before missing 2009 with an injury, then had two awesome years culminating in a Heisman winning season in 2011 running the same offense under the same coach NFL superstars Case Keenum and Kevin Kolb ran in putting up insane numbers in college.  I get why Griffin is so tempting, particularly after Cam Newton's early season success, but if Newton doesn't get out to that hot start is Griffin even considered a rival to Luck at #1?  Everyone seems to point to his athleticism and runnability as to why he's so fascinating as a franchise player and granted his 4.41 forty-yard dash is a record for QBs and the 39 inch vertical is impressive, but he's not that far ahead of Luck, who ran a 4.67, had a 36 inch vertical, and actually beat RG3 in the broadjump at 10-4 vs. 10-0.  Actually Luck's measurables were very similar to Newtons (4.67 vs. 4.59, 36 inch vert vs. 35, and 10-4 vs. 10-6) and Luck's said to be a far better passer and the kind of guy who already understands the game at a veteran type level.

I'm not saying Griffin will be a bust, I'm just saying anyone comparing him to Luck is delusional at best.  And no I'm not just saying this as a fantasy smokescreen.  I'm taking Luck, assuming he's there for me.