My 10 Predictions for the NFL season

1.  Dez Bryant is going to be a monster.  Seriously.  Physically he's one of the most gifted wideouts in the league.  Everybody knows most WRs breakout in their third season, and his first two years (45/561/6 and 63/928/9) point two a guy who is figuring it out (on the field, at least).  Dude may be a mess at times, but assuming he doesn't do something stupid like bringing a pound of weed through airport security or beating up a fan for making mom jokes and getting suspended he's going to be huge.  I'm talking 90/1,400/12 this year.  Of course, Tony Romo completely sucks donkey balls so it's possible he's too scared to throw it down field and just dinks it to Miles Austin and those TEs all the time, in which case I'd put the odds at 50/50 of Bryant blowing up Romo's car.

2.  Ryan Williams will be one of the better backs in the league.  He has to beat out Beanie Wells first, but let's be honest here that's not really going to be a problem. Williams was an absolute monster for Virginia Tech for two years, breaking the Va Tech single season rushing record and the ACC single season TD record, before the Cardinals took him early in the second round of the 2011 draft.  He then destroyed his knee on his first carry in his first preseason game, which is why Arizona fans and football fans in general were subjected to another year watching fatass Wells fall down again and again.  Williams is a threat to score every time he has the ball.  Wells is a threat to become the next Lendale White.  Of course, Williams also missed all of last year and the second half of his final college season due to injury so he's got a bit of china doll syndrome possibly going on so maybe everyone will get lucky and get to watch Wells again.  Joy!

3.  The Falcons are going to miss the playoffs.  Way way way way way too much hype here, and whenever that happens the results are generally in the exact opposite direction.   Matt Ryan is going to throw for 2 billion yards with Julio Jones and Roddy White both somehow catching for 1.5 billion apiece!  Jacquizz Rodgers is the next NFL super star!  Michael Turner will be rejuvenated by this holy crap passing offense!  Please.  Worst nicknamed player ever Matty Ice hasn't won anything, Michael Turner is going to Shaun Alexander this year, and Rodgers isn't the kind of runner who can be a feature back.  Atlanta won't be able to run this year, which means Ryan is going to have to throw a ton and even if his (and those wideouts who I confess are pretty damn good) stats look great he's also going to throw 40 interceptions.  Plus their defense sucks.  Everyone is going to feel stupid at the end of the year when they suck except me because I'm right, and then you're going to acknowledge me as your god.

4.  Percy Harvin is going to have a break out season.  No, he's not going be like Dez Bryant or anything, but Harvin should finally break the 1,000 receiving yards barrier and probably hit 100 catches.  You can see it coming if you're a Vikes fan who's been watching him for three years, but just to put some quantitativeness to the qualitativeness - from week 7 forward last year (which is when Christian Ponder) took over, Harvin touched the ball 100 times which was the most in the NFL.  Second place was Wes Welkerbury with 76.  Yeah, Ponder digs him some Percy.  He does get more touches than most WR due to the lining up in the backfield he does, particularly once AP went down to injury but even prior to that he was averaging more than 3 rush attempts per game.  Looking forward to this.

5.  Antonio Gates will break TE records.  I know everyone is all over Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham as the world's greatest tight ends - and rightly so because they had the two best seasons by a TE ever last year - but don't forget about Antonio Gates, who is primed to have an even better season that either of those two did last year.  You know Philip Rivers is going to throw for a whole bunch of yards just as sure as you know he's going to cry at least once this year, but who gets those yards?  Vincent Jackson is gone (#2 in catches last year).  Mike Tolbert (#3) is as well, and Vincent Brown (who was supposed to ascend to their new #1 WR) is out half the season with an injury.  That leaves Malcom Floyd (please) and Gates as your two main targets, and Antonio is finally healthy again after two injury plagued seasons where he still managed to average 57/780/8.  Before getting hurt he had the best 1.5 seasons of his career, and everything points to a career year for him - expect him to break 1,400 receiving yards, a new TE record.

6.  Andrew Luck will be better than Robert Griffin III this year.  Seems like 95% of opinions I've read on these two say Luck will have the better career but RG3 will be better this season.  Well I think Luck's better in both cases.  Nobody argues he's the more polished QB already, so the other two factors would be if Luck struggles to pick-up the offensive scheme and if RG3 had markedly better weapons surrounding him, but I don't see it in either case.  Luck basically called his own plays at Stanford, a team run by a "cerebral" former QB type like Jim Harbaugh (and by cerebral I mean in comparison to blockheads like Brad Childress) so I don't think he's going to majorly struggle with any system he's asked to run.  And as far as weapons, both Indy and the Skins are a mess at RB although I'd give the edge to the Colts based on at least having a clear idea of who is going to get the majority of the carries, and I'll take Reggie Wayne/Austin Collie over Santana Moss/Pierre Garcon every time.  What am I missing?  Clear advantage to Luck.  Also garcon means boy.

7.  The Chiefs are going to suck.  I have no idea why it seems everyone is picking these guys to win the AFC East this year.  None at all.  They're horrid.  The have three good offensive players and two play the same position and were both hurt all or most of last year (fun fact:  Jamaal Charles' middle name is Rashaad - that's a lot of a's), and the other one is Dwayne Bowe who is likely to end up shooting himself in the leg or getting suspended after buying weed in Mexico.  Matt Cassell might very well be the worst starting QB in the league, and the Chiefs have one of the worst pass defenses in the entire NFL going up against the pass happy Chargers (6th in passing yds last year) and Raiders (11th and should be even better) and a team that just upgraded from Tim Tebow to Peyton Manning.  Speaking of which....

8.  The Broncos will win their division.  Yes, I'm on board the Peyton train.  I kind of have to be since I drafted him like 15 years ago in our inaugural keeper league draft and have held him since, but I truly believe he can make a huge difference for Denver.  Demaryius Thomas has all the skill to be a lead WR and Eric Decker has both the game and the smarts to become Peyton's #1 target or at least a 1b to Thomas's 1a.  That offense should be good enough to put up some points, and that hyper aggressive defense (big on sacks and turnovers, low on actual stops) could turn for the better.   I'd feel better if I had heard of anyone on their offensive line and if their running back was someone better than Willis McGahee, but I feel pretty safe putting my blind trust in Peyton Manning and Champ Bailey.  Especially if this was 2003.

9.  The Saints are going to the Super Bowl.  Seems to me like everybody is ignoring the Saints, and I rarely hear them come up when postseason stuff is talked about.  In fact I don't think anyone on ESPN picked them to make the Super Bowl, but you best believe they'll be there.  They have the best QB on the planet (or #2 after Rodgers) who has a whole mess of weapons to throw too, and while most teams with three running backs have a mess on their hands they have three guys who would all start in many NFL situations.  That offense is straight up sick.  And you don't think that defense is going to be playing with a major chip on their shoulder?  Don't forget if this team doesn't see Alex Smith miraculously morph into Joe Unitas they're probably in the Super Bowl last year (they would've beat the Giants, I promise).  Now take that same basic team (oh no, Robert Meachem left!) and add a big ole steamy plate of gritty emotions?  They'll be there.  Other playoff teams:  NY Giants, Packers, 49ers, Lions, Eagles, Broncos, Texans, Pats, Ravens, Steelers, and Chargers.  And your champ.....

10.  The Ravens will win the Super Bowl.  That's right, I'm backing Joe Flacco.  I think we've got a perfect storm here.  A young QB coming into his own with an offense being revamped to take advantage of his talents and a WR (Torrey Smith) coming into his own right along with him.  Maybe the best offensive weapon in the game (Ray Rice) and one of the best defensive players (Haloti Ngata).  Veterans who can still play who know this might be their last shot (Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Matt Birk, Anquan Boldin).  And, similar to the Saints, you've got a team here who was very close to making the Super Bowl last year (if Lee Evans catches one more pass they're in) and has done very little tinkering.  Terrell Suggs injury is a bit of an unfortunate wrinkle, but so is your face.


HONORABLE MENTION:  Others who will be awesome - Eli Manning, Jay Cutler, LeSean McCoy, Chris Johnson, Matt Forte, Steven Jackson, Carson Palmer, Marshawn Lynch, Brandon Marshall, Hakeem Nicks, Marques Colston, Greg Olsen, David Wilson, Mark Ingram, and Brandon Pettigrew.  Those will suck - Cam Newton, Mike Vick, Darren McFadden, Arian Foster, Frank Gore, Ahmad Bradshaw, every Lions RB, Jordy Nelson, Victor Cruz, Miles Austin, Steve Johnson, and Vernon Davis.

BOOK IT.

Week in Review - 11/14/2011 (+ mini South Dakota State preview)

Hey thanks internet.  You are supposed to be there to let me watch the Pacquiao/Marquez fight without having to pay a dime.  Instead I had to watch 3 seconds at a time and then stare at a god damn hour glass.  You failed me internet.  You failed me.  We are totally fighting.

WHO WAS AWESOME.

1.  Gopher hoops.  Click here for a proper recap, but to put it short, that was a solid win against a solid team, and the fact that they were able to actually manage to come back from down 5 with six minutes to go, against said solid team, just really impresses me.  I guess I have a low impress threshold.  I suppose it's just one more thing Gopher basketball has stolen from me.  And yet I can't stop going back.  I'm like a beaten woman, aren't I.  Oh my god I'm Aaliyah and the Gophers are Chris Brown.

2.  Royce White.  God mother hell shit fart.  This sucks.  Royce with 25 and 11 in his ISU debut, with 3 blocks and a couple assists to go with it.  And here's you, sitting there in your Laz-E-Boy watching Cops and swirling your brandy around even though it's fucking Korbel and making snide comments about how you wonder how many security guards he's pushed down or how many laptops he's stolen.  It's people like you that will always hold the Gopher basketball program down with your judging judgement.  What about the bible, fella?  Doesn't it say "don't be a pompous judgmental ass or I'll turn you into a pillar of salt" or something?  I think it's in Leviticus.

3.  Utah State.  There were better wins this weekend - UNC's over Michigan State for one - but between pure emotion and actual effect on an NCAA bid Utah's State's win over BYU might end up being the biggest.  In terms of NCAA Tournament implications, Utah State always needs quality wins since they're in the WAC where quality wins are basically impossible to come by and this was only one of three games against quality opponents for USU.  Huge win in the RPI sense.  Also a huge win in the "i hate these fuckin' guys" sense, because Utah Staties hate BYU, mostly because they're a bunch of prissy dickheads.  Here is a video of Utah State students welcoming BYU to their arena.  Solid effort.

4. Kendall Marshall.  You know how sometimes thing don't live up to the hype like Terra Nova, every Hannibal Lecter movie after Silence of the Lambs, flavored Mountain Dew (other than Live Wire), the last two George R.R. Martin novels, or having kids?  Well I finally got a good chance to watch Kendall Marshall on Sunday against UNC-Asheville and this dude is straight legit.  The stats are crazy - he had 15 assists - but just watching him it's clear he's the best point guard UNC has had since Ed Cota and he might even be better.  He's got that smooth playability about him where he doesn't really look like he's moving quickly or even really trying (like Evan Turner) but continually gets past people and his court vision is off the charts.  Whether it's a simple entry pass, running the break, or getting the ball up the court as fast as possible by passing it ahead, he's a legit point guard and as far as pure points go I'm thinking he might be the best in the country.  Outside of Justin Cobbs, of course.

5. Mark Sanchez.  Actually he sucks and couldn't get the Jets in the end zone with four plays inside the 10 at the end of the game, but he's awesome because as part of a teaser I had Jets/Pats under 54 and so boom.  The final leg is Vikes/Pack over 43, and there's almost no way the Pack doesn't even get there by themself, am I right?

WHO SUCKED

1.  UCLA.  You know how the Pac-10 has been in shambles for a few years and getting even two NCAA bids was kind of an accomplishment?  Well it's probably going to happen again.  Arizona looks like a sloppy mess right now, but at least they managed to not eff it up so badly that they actually lost, unlike the Bruins.  Yes, UCLA managed to lose their opener.  Not only did they lose, they lost to a mid-tier WCC team in Loyola-Marymount.  At home.  By 11.  The first time LMU beat UCLA since 1941.  Ouch.  Particularly impressive was point guard Lazeric Jones going 1-11 from the field for the Bruins, but they'll get some help at the point next game when Jerime Anderson is back, who was suspended one game for stealing a laptop this summer.  Huh?  A one game suspension for stealing a laptop.  How interesting.  Personally I would have run him right off campus and made sure he transferred out, probably going to a school in a neighboring state where he'd have a right smashing debut.  It's the proper way to handle it.

2.  Butler.  I know Butler lost to Evansville last year early and still made the Nat Champ Game, and I know that losing Shelvin Mack and Matt Howard would be pretty tough for anybody so dropping a game to Evansville (in Evansville) is probably not that big a deal. Then again, last year at 9-9 was the first time Evansville reached .500 in conference (MVC) play since 2000 so losing to them is not exactly excusable.  Let me put it this way, outside the Aces two wins over Butler the last two years their only notable non-conference win dating back to 2001 was over Purdue in 2005.  This ain't exactly a giant killing program.  Maybe Evansville just has Butler's number, or maybe it's going to take a while to adjust to no Howard and no Mack, but maybe Butler just flat sucks this year.  They're going to struggle there's no doubt, because there's some quality Horizon opponents this year.  And speaking of......   

3. Vanderbilt.  You know how every time Vandy has a supposed good team they get bounced early in the NCAA Tournament?  Well apparently this year's version decided just to go out and start disappointing people right away because they lost on Sunday to Cleveland State 71-58.  Now in reality losing to Cleveland State isn't that bad of a loss because Cleveland State is one of the best teams in one of the best mid-major conferences in the country, and they will likely be in the running for an at-large bid come end of the year if they don't win the Horizon tournament.  But still, this was at Vanderbilt and the Commodores supposedly have their best team of all time and are ranked 7th in the country, so due to those circumstances this is a pretty crappy loss.  Vandy sucked, you might even say.

4. Kansas City Chiefs.  Actually there were so many NFL teams who embarrassed themselves this week it was hard to pick just one.  The Chiefs lost (at home) to Denver despite the Broncos completing just two passes the entire game.  The Ravens lost to the T-Jax led Seahawks while passing 53 times and only giving Ray Rice eight carries.  The Lions got smoked by the Bears by something like 50 points, the Eagles continued their unstoppable march to mediocrity by losing at home to a terrible Eagles team, and Buffalo reminded everyone they are Buffalo by getting crushed by Dallas.  Just a bizarre week in the NFL with a lot of really ugly games by ugly teams.  I'd say at this rate the Vikings actually have a chance to beat the Pack tonight.

5. Cain Velasquez. I don't know why I keep trying to get back into these fighting sports.  First Mayweather/Ortiz which ends in Floyd knocking out Ortiz while Ortiz is defenseless (his own fault but still), then Hopkins/Dawson which ended with an essential body slam and/or an old man looking to quit.  Now Saturday night I decide to check in on UFC and I get to see Velasquez, the "champion" (quotes should be read as air quotes), get hit in the face once, fall down, and then cry.  Seriously, pros should be able to take a punch, if I wanted to watch someone get knocked out I'd just ask someone to hit me (although the one time it actually happened after Dawger pickd a fight with some gang member and some other dude sucker punched me in the face and I was all like I will kill you mother fucker but he knocked my glasses off so I couldn't see shit and had no idea what was going on but I asked some other gang member dude to help me find my glasses since it was bullshit that the dude sucker punched me and he actually helped me look for them).  So yeah, I could beat up Cain Velasquez.  FACT.



As far as the Gophers go, they keep it going by taking on South Dakota State tonight.  The Jackrabbits are on a very similar plane as Bucknell as far as talent level goes - a good team from a terrible conference - and it should be a similar story to the Bucknell game - they have some good players and can be dangerous if the Gophers either don't play well or take them too lightly, but the Gophers really have no excuse for losing this game.

SDSU is another team that shoots the ball very well from three (41% last year) and they have a player in Nate Wolters who can take over a game and who many people who are stupid think should be a Gopher.  Wolters has a shot at winning Summit League Player of the Year this season, averaged 19 points, 5 rebounds, and 6 assists per game last year, and opened up this year by dropping 32 (with 11 assists) in the Jackrabbits' win over Western Michigan.  Wolters is also from St. Cloud, which means people in this state are needlessly in love with him and also means he'll have a bit of extra motivation.  Him coming out and scoring 30+ is a very real possibility.

There are a couple of other decent players here (Jordan Dykstra in the post and SG Griffen Callahan both have the ability to score 20), but, like on Friday, the Gophers have more size, athleticism, ability, talent, and depth.  I expect SDSU to come out with a burst of emotion and grittiness and keep this one tight in the first half, but the Gophers should pull this one out by 10+ by the time it's over.  Of course, I say should, but once again this isn't a cupcake opponent and if the Gophers let them get hot from the perimeter and nobody's making shots for the Gophers isn't going to be tough.  Mbakwe and Sampson will probably be doubled again all day, so somebody else is going to have to help.

Or Mbakwe just grabs 20 boards and scores on putbacks all game because SDSU has absolutely nobody who can keep him off the glass.

Minnesota 72, South Dakota State 62

(If you're looking for something a little more in-depth, I'd assume From the Barn has got you covered)

 

 

This picture comes up if you search for Jackrabbits Cheerleaders.  Good enough, amiright?

Weekend Review

WHO WAS AWESOME

1. Texas Tech. I mentioned last week that I was curious to find out if the whole run and gun by Texas Tech was a mirage or if they were a legit title contender, and Saturday’s win over #1 Texas showed that they are definitely worth mentioning. I think both of the teams I’m going to talk about right after this are better than they are, but a win over the #1 ranked team in the country is still a huge win, even if they play like crap and still almost beat you. A semi-miraculous dropped interception by Texas following a complete Tech collapse gave them new life, and Graham Harrell took advantage hitting Michael Crabtree, who is an absolute monster, for a TD to give the Red Raiders a 39-33 win, and probably jumping them up to #3 in the polls.

2. USC. Lest you thought an early season loss to Oregon State would knock the Trojans out of national title contention, they have done more than enough the last few weeks to serve notice that they are very much one of the top teams in the country. The beat up on Washington this week, winning 56-0 after leading 42-0 at halftime, just two weeks after thumping Washington State 69-0 after a 41-0 start by half. In between those games they travelled to 5-2 Arizona and knocked off the Wildcats 17-10. I don’t know if the defenses in the Pac 10 are just terrible or if Mark Sanchez is really that good, but he’s been carving people up this season, to the tune of 15 TDs vs. 5 INTs (3 in one game) in Pac play. The Trojans may very well be the best team in college football right now.

3. Florida. If it isn’t USC, it may very well be the Gators. Currently ranked 5th, they made a statement in a very big way, going into Georgia to face the #8 Bulldogs and walking out with a 49-10 victory that was only that close because of a garbage touchdown Georgia scored late. I’m not entirely certain what to make of Tim Tebow. Obviously with his size, strength, and speed he can dominate a game, and is pretty much a TD machine, like against Georgia this weekend he rushed for three scores and passed for two more. I’m just not sure what’s going to happen NFL-wise. In any case, with this win over Georgia and a 51-21 massacre over #4 at the time LSU, the Gators have a good argument that they are the #1 team in the land.

4. Bernard Berrian? I'm really kind of unsure about this one. On the one hand, he's scored in four straight games and made a couple of really, really nice catches yesterday. On the other hand, he had one ball where he was in the corner of the end zone and seemed to have no clue where he was and didn't get his feet in bounds, and he had another one where he pulled an Eric Decker and let it go right through his hands straight to a defender. But still, four straight games with a TD? We'll put him here for now.

5. College Basketball. No, not this weekend, but everything kicks off tonight, baby, and I couldn't be more excited. Sure, it's exhibition ball, but it will be nice to see some college hoops highlights on sportscenter and get away from the constant barrage of homoerotica that is football.

WHO SUCKED

1. Gopher Football. Some things never change, right? Despite a hugely successful season thus far, it’s not even surprising that the Gophers lost on an interception return for a TD with 12 seconds left in a tie game on a ball that was perfectly thrown to the Big Ten’s leading receiver who let it go right through his hands, off a defender’s facemask, and into another defender’s hands. I figured there was no way they were going 11-1 and their lofty ranking was a bit of a mirage, but when you lose at least lose at Wisconsin or to Iowa, this was embarrassing. They had plenty of opportunities to win this game, but a stagnant offense and the inability to stop backup Northwestern QB Mike Kafka, who underwent a metamorphosis (note the awkward literary joke here) into Tim Tebow for the afternoon. This doesn’t exactly ruin the season or anything, since you’d pretty much have to be delusional to think they were BCS bound, but it just announces that things are pretty much status quo with Minnesota football. Thank god basketball starts today.

2. South Florida. What a weird team to figure out. Two seasons ago they kind of made their “We have arrived” statement by knocking off #7 West Virginia at West Virginia the last game of the season, then won the Papajohns.com bowl behind super awesome do it all quarterback Matt Grothe. Then last season, they come out of the gates on fire, starting off 6-0 including wins over #17 Auburn and #5 West Virginia, and ended up ranked all the way to #5. Immediately after they completely imploded, losing three in a row to Rutgers, UCONN, and Cincinnati and ended up in the Sun Bowl instead of anything meaningful, where they got crushed by Oregon. This year, they once again started off on fire, going 5-0 with a win over #13 Kansas and getting them ranked tenth. Same pattern held, as they have now dropped three out of the last four to inferior competition, culminating in Thursday nights embarrassing loss to Cincinnati (not technically the weekend but whatever). Once again the Bulls find themselves heading towards some insignificant bowl rather than anything even within sniffing distance of the BCS games. Grothe is a junior at this point, so they have one more chance to get it right.

3. Michigan. It’s not exactly breaking news here that Michigan football sucks this season, but since they lost to Purdue Saturday that guarantees them a losing season, which warrants mentioning. The 48-42 loss, on a sweet hook-and-ladder play, drops the Wolverines to 2-7 overall, meaning they will end up finishing under .500 and will not be playing in a bowl game for the first time in the last 34 seasons. My, how the mighty have fallen. Between the collapse of the football program and the total suckitude of the basketball team since the Fab Five left has their ever been an athletic program in such a free fall? Granted, Indiana basketball is on it’s way, but for now, the Wolverines need to be considered as the biggest collapse in the history of the world, at least since the Gophers/Texas Tech bowl game. At least Brandon Minor looks pretty good.

4. Kansas City Chiefs. Oooooof. Brutal. They looked like they were cruising to win #2 on the season, with a 24-3 (including a TD pass TO Tyler Thigpen) lead with 2 minutes to go in the first half. They then gave up a kick return for a TD and a FG in those final two minutes, and still managed to have a lead until Tampa scored a TD from Jeff Garcia to Antonio Bryant with 19 seconds left and converted the 2-point try, and then won in overtime. Dwayne "The Show" Bowe deserves much, much better.

5. Detroit Lions. Sure, it's getting a little redundant putting them here, but yesterday was a special occasion that was quite similar to the above Kansas City paragraph. Except they were looking for their first win, and only had a 10 point lead on the Bears at half, but had knocked starting QB Kyle Orton out of the game, which is surprisingly a bad thing for the Bears this season. Except enter Rex Grossman, he of the career 32/34 TD to INT ratio, and he marched them up and down the field, throwing for one TD and running for another and saving my hopes in our Survivor Pick'em. Calvin "Megatron" Johnson deserves much, much better.