Wednesday, December 28, 2011

Wednesday Writings

 So I decided not to watch the tivo'd version of the Gopher game.  I received some advice that really it would just frustrate me beyond belief, and I realized that makes a lot of sense.  I know as an alleged Gopher blogger watching the game would arm me with more information, but I'm thinking the trade-off between getting that info and wanting to kill myself like 30 different times made it not really worth it.  I do promise to have a preview up of the big Gopher/Wolverine tilt on Sunday, and have it up tomorrow night.  Really, I promise.  In the meantime, here's just a couple things about stuff.

-  I saw the most weirdest thing ever when watching the Diamond Head Classic over Christmas.  UTEP is playing Clemson and they (the Miners) go with the Triangle-and-2 on Andre Young and Tanner Smith, their two leading scorers and only two play-makers with the ball in their hands.  Not only that, but it was the most extreme T-and-2 I've ever seen.  They were actually guarding them wherever they went and not looking at the ball, so at times Smith and Young would stand out by the half court line and their defenders would follow, which meant the game basically turned into 3-on-3 on one end of the court.  It worked too, because those two scored just 14 points and tallied 4 assists (both about half their season average) and UTEP won by double-digits.  One of the weirdest, coolest things I've ever seen.

-  Let's check in real quick on my NCAA Wagers on teams to win the whole thing, and see where we stand:
  • Vanderbilt 40-1 (current: 40-1).  They've lost every meaningful game they've played.  Consider this bet dead in the water.
  • Wisconsin 50-1 (current 40-1).  I have no idea why I made this bet, but it came it at 1am on a Friday when I probably had a drink or two.  I think Wisconsin is incredibly overrated this year and they'll be lucky to win 10 Big 10 games so I don't think they remotely have a teeny tiny shot at winning the NCAA Tournament.  I guess I can consider this a hedge against the pure agony that would result if the Badgers did, in fact, find a way to win.
  • Xavier 25 -1 (current: 40-1).  I have no idea why this number dropped.  The Musketeers dropped 3 of their last 4 but were dealing with the suspensions and other fallout from the fight with Cincy.  Prior to that they had wins over Vandy, Georgia, Purdue, and Butler.  None of those teams are good, but none of them are terrible either (well, maybe Butler) so X was rolling well pre-throwdown.  I don't know.  I'd recommend you take a look at this one if you are looking to throw some gambling money around.  I also just found that I have a little extra on these guys from even earlier at 60-1.  So that's good.
  • Illinois 100-1 (current: 200-1).  Was purely a value play at the time.  Based on the athleticism of Paul and Richardson and the great off-season reports on Leonard I thought it was worth a shot.  Clearly that hasn't played itself out so far, but the win over Gonzaga and a 4-point loss to Mizzou say this team still has potential.  At 200-1 any person with a gambling account should throw $1 on this.
  • Texas A&M 100-1 (current: 100-1).  Tough to get a read on these guys because they've spent most of the year without their best player, but he's back now and they lost to Rice.  Not loving this one.
  • Syracuse 15-1 (current 6-1).  Feeling pretty good about this one, as the Cuse are one of the legit 5 best teams in the country. 
  • New Mexico 100-1 (current: 300-1).  Garbage bet.
  • Arizona 60-1 (current 60-1).  I have no idea why this number hasn't moved.  Arizona is completely awful and can't beat anybody.  On the bright side, they're in the Pac-12 which is like puking on your own face so they're guaranteed to at least make the tournament.  Kind of.
  • Florida 40-1 (current 25-1).  My favorite bet.  The Gators pretty clearly had the kind of back court players that can lead you to a championship, the only question was if they'd have enough in the front court to be able to make a real push.  Patric Young and Erik Murphy have answered that and Florida might be the best "sleeper" team out there.  They hung right with Ohio State and Syracuse, blew out TAMU and FSU, and likely will only play 3-ranked teams the rest of the regular season (Kentucky twice and Miss State) so they'll end up with a favorable seed.  There's still value here at 25-1 - in fact I just threw a few more bucks at it.
  • Missouri 75-1 (current 20-1).  My second favorite bet, if only because I have half the amount on Mizzou that I have on Florida.  Advanced metics adore what Missouri has done this year and it's tough to argue with the results because they're 12-0, ranked in the top 10, and have blown out pretty much everybody they've played.  I'm not sure there's value left here at 20-1 because that style of play can backfire hard, but if they swoon a bit and drop to 30 or 40 to 1 jump on that.
  • Baylor 35-1 (current 10-1).  According to current odds (and preseason odds), the most likely winner I have money on and I do feel pretty good about it.  They're crushing teams, winning on the road, and winning some tough battles (including the semi-home win over a good Miss State team tonight).  I don't like them much at 10-1, but at 35-1 it was a great bet.
  • UCONN 30-1 (current 20-1).  I grabbed this the minute it came across Twitter that Andre Drummond was going to be playing this year, before they had a chance to move the line (it moved all the way to 10-1).   It's tough to know where the value should be here because they haven't really been tested yet, but there's certainly plenty of talent.  And if Drummond keeps improving they could still end up snagging a 1 or 2 seed.  Really.  It's also my biggest bet out of all the futures I'm on, so I'd like this one to hit yes please.
  • Iowa State 200-1 (current 500-1).  I took this one back in May.  Yes, May.  Figured it was worth a shot.  Oops.
 So that's where I stand.  Keep in mind I'm sort of addicted to future bets, because it's kind of like an investment.  For example, I lost about $100 on baseball futures this year, but because I made so many futures bets I had $700 come into my account.  So even though I pumped out $800, I pumped that out in March, then had the money come back way in October.  So in a weird way that's probably kind of stupid but whatever shut up it felt like I made a free $700.  So I keep doing it.  I have a ton of money into NFL futures (actually looks like it will be a real life profit), a ton in the NBA, and I even have money on Best Picture for the Oscars.  No, I'm pretty sure you have a problem.

-  I was going to write a bunch more about the NBA (Rubio rocks, Lakers suck), the Saints (Brees's record should really have an asterisk), Jayma Mayes (sneaky hot), and Ginger Snaps (underrated movie), but I'm bored now and to be honest that comment you had about my gambling problem really hurt.  I'm not mad mad, but I don't think we should talk for a little bit.  Just to show you there's no hard feelings I'll leave you with a pic of Katharine Isabelle (star of Ginger Snaps), but we probably shouldn't talk for a while.  Especially because you're going to say she's a plain jane, aren't you, you sick son of a bitch?
You gonna tell me this is a plain jane too, dickfuck?

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