The Gophers' 2014 recruiting class is now complete (probably) with the recent signings of Zach Lofton (who almost certainly won't be eligible until 2015) and Bakary Konate, who join Gaston Diedhiou, Josh Martin, Carlos Morris, and Nate Mason to make up Richard Pitino's first official recruiting class. It's not an amazing class by any means, with 247sports ranking it 9th in the Big Ten (this doesn't include Lofton since he's a transfer from Illinois State) but it's a dramatic shift in personnel traits. All five of the freshmen are extremely athletic and should be able to get up and down the court. Make no mistake - this team is changing.
Konate, who ranks as the 182nd best player and 15th best center by 247sports, is originally from Spain, and most recently played at Sunrise Christian Academy in Kansas. Louisville had offered earlier, however Konate's academics weren't in order and the Cardinals moved on. The Gophers swept in and grabbed him over Texas A&M, Tulane, and Creighton, foregoing any other visits other than to Minnesota because he says he knew this is where he wanted to be. So that's cool. Konate still needs to take the SAT and get a good enough score to gain admission to Minnesota, but his coach says that shouldn't be a problem. Which is exactly what he has to say.
Hopefully it isn't an issue, because Konate sounds like he's going to be fun. He's big, strong, and super athletic and he does two really fun things - blocks shots and hits outside jumpers. He's a true center at 6-11, and although they say he's not super polished on the block the fact that he can step out and hit 2s and even 3s adds a nice wrinkle. The one big weakness they say is that he's not as strong in the lower body as he is in the upper, which could get him pushed around in the Big Ten, but if Pitino can get Mo Walker to lose weight, hopefully he can get Konate to gain weight. He's a great pick up this late. Not much video out there, but here's him dunking against a D-I team.
Zach Lofton, originally from Columbia Heights, is transferring in from Illinois State. It's said he'll be applying for a waiver to play right away next season, but he doesn't really have any good reasons for one so it's unlikely. Of course, this being the NCAA who the hell knows what they'll decide. Once Lofton decided to leave the Illinois State program he didn't look at anybody other than the Gophers, hoping they'd make him an offer. They did, and despite a lot of whining and questioning from rubes at Gopher Hole, I think this is an excellent signing.
Lofton scored 11.3 points per game for the Redbirds last season (he also spent a year at a JuCo), which would normally have fans very excited, but his .339 shooting percentage including .292 from three has some fans up in arms about how he "sucks" and using a scholarship for three years is "a waste" and how the Gophers should get someone better (because everyone is just clamoring to transfer here). Perhaps fans are scarred by the whole Malik Smith thing (small school volume shooter with iffy percentages), but this is a very different situation. I promise.
For one thing, Malik Smith was a three point shooter and that's basically it. His final year at FIU he took 71% of his shots from behind the 3-point line and only 12% at the rim. Lofton took 52% from behind the arc and 19% at the rim last season - those are marked differences. Smith went a little more extreme with the Gophers at 78% and 10%, but even if Lofton shifts more towards a 3-point shooter role (I don't expect this to happen) he would probably wind up with similar splits as Dre Hollins last year, a vastly different type of player than Malik Smith.
Watching the video on him (see below) some of his shot selection is cringe-worthy but he's also light years ahead of Malik in terms of athleticism. I also don't see Pitino giving Lofton the same green light he game Smith given that they don't have a past relationship. Illinois State was also a very young team which may have played a part as well.
The other thing people are all pantie bunched about is that he had some disciplinary issues and missed the final 3 games of the Redbirds' season. Unless you're the kind of person who wants your players' all squeaky clean I don't see why this should bother you. He was a little bit immature but it was clear this whole thing came about because of a bad relationship with his coach and there are two other players transferring out as well, both of whom played in every game last season, which tells me maybe the clash isn't because Lofton is some kind of bad seed. There were also four transfers out the prior season, the current coach's first.
So you have a coach with 7 players transferring out since he got the job. Hard for me to not give Lofton the benefit of the doubt, and even if he did act like kind of a dick (he did) who really cares? Who cares about the 3 game suspension? When Mo Walker was basically carrying the team did anyone give a shit about his early season suspension? These things happen, and as long as the player stays eligible I don't really give a crap. If he's acting up and being a general shithead I trust Pitino can handle it. He's a completely worthwhile signee and in his first season he'll have a chance to step in and be a big offensive cog for the team considering both Dres will be gone. I'm baffled by the people who are upset about this. Well, I guess I'm not, actually. I've pretty much come to expect it.
Thursday, April 24, 2014
Wednesday, April 23, 2014
Twins ditch Mastroianni, pick up Sam Fuld. Upgrade?
[And right as I post this I see on Twitter the Gophers picked up commitments from Zach Lofton and Bakary Konate. Post coming on that tomorrow.]
Never let it be said that I don't tackle the tough questions on this blog. With the Twins grabbing Sam Fuld of waivers and subsequently losing Darin Mastroianni to the Blue Jays it's finally time to look at the big question every is asking these days - who is the better sixth outfielder? I know, I'm brave to put myself out there like this on such an important and controversial topic, but someone has to do it. The people demand answers.
Mastroianni's career slash numbers are .220/.288/.295, while Fuld's are .233/.312/.334 - both pretty terrible. Fuld's minor league career numbers are .283/.371/.402, and Mastroianni is at .280/.370/.370. Generally pretty comparable and crappy. The differences are Fuld walks a little bit more, Mastroianni strikes out about twice as often, and although neither is going to hit it out of the park very often Fuld has slightly more gap power. Edge to Fuld. Since we're talking sixth outfielder here (when everyone's healthy) the biggest value these guys could bring is as a pinch hitter, and I would definitely feel better with Fuld up there than Mastroianni who mostly just made me roll my eyes. He's not a great bat by any means, but he is an upgrade.
Both had some success stealing bases in the minors and both have exactly one big league season with a nice steals total - Mastroianni had 21 in 2012, Fuld 20 in 2011. For their careers Mastroianni has stolen 24 bases while being caught just 4 times, while Fuld totals 38 with 13 caught. Edge Mastroianni, but in general I hate pinch running so maybe not having the faster guy is an overall positive? Fuld balances the speed difference by being a better overall base running, at least according to UBR (Ultimate Base Running), a complicated way to try to quantify base running ability. I don't know how much credence we can really lend to it, but for whatever it's worth Fuld's been goode for his career while Mastroianni has been simply average.
Defensively, and this is important since this is the center field back up spot, these guys are both quite good according to Fangraphs' defensive metrics, specifically UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating). Fuld has overall been better over his career, but Mastroianni jumps ahead if you look at it on a per 150 games basis. They both have good range and a good arm, and neither make many errors. Call it a tie.
I'll take the swap. They're pretty much dead even in most things except Fuld is better with the stick, and since their role is going to mainly be coming off the bench I'd rather have a better hitter. Mastroianni is four years younger than Fuld, which would be a selling point in some cases, but not here. Reality is these guys are non-prospects, so age doesn't really matter. They're both better than Alex Presley, anyway.
Now you have the answer to this pressing topic that I'm pretty sure most Twins fans weren't even aware of. I'm generous like that.
Never let it be said that I don't tackle the tough questions on this blog. With the Twins grabbing Sam Fuld of waivers and subsequently losing Darin Mastroianni to the Blue Jays it's finally time to look at the big question every is asking these days - who is the better sixth outfielder? I know, I'm brave to put myself out there like this on such an important and controversial topic, but someone has to do it. The people demand answers.
Mastroianni's career slash numbers are .220/.288/.295, while Fuld's are .233/.312/.334 - both pretty terrible. Fuld's minor league career numbers are .283/.371/.402, and Mastroianni is at .280/.370/.370. Generally pretty comparable and crappy. The differences are Fuld walks a little bit more, Mastroianni strikes out about twice as often, and although neither is going to hit it out of the park very often Fuld has slightly more gap power. Edge to Fuld. Since we're talking sixth outfielder here (when everyone's healthy) the biggest value these guys could bring is as a pinch hitter, and I would definitely feel better with Fuld up there than Mastroianni who mostly just made me roll my eyes. He's not a great bat by any means, but he is an upgrade.
Both had some success stealing bases in the minors and both have exactly one big league season with a nice steals total - Mastroianni had 21 in 2012, Fuld 20 in 2011. For their careers Mastroianni has stolen 24 bases while being caught just 4 times, while Fuld totals 38 with 13 caught. Edge Mastroianni, but in general I hate pinch running so maybe not having the faster guy is an overall positive? Fuld balances the speed difference by being a better overall base running, at least according to UBR (Ultimate Base Running), a complicated way to try to quantify base running ability. I don't know how much credence we can really lend to it, but for whatever it's worth Fuld's been goode for his career while Mastroianni has been simply average.
Defensively, and this is important since this is the center field back up spot, these guys are both quite good according to Fangraphs' defensive metrics, specifically UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating). Fuld has overall been better over his career, but Mastroianni jumps ahead if you look at it on a per 150 games basis. They both have good range and a good arm, and neither make many errors. Call it a tie.
I'll take the swap. They're pretty much dead even in most things except Fuld is better with the stick, and since their role is going to mainly be coming off the bench I'd rather have a better hitter. Mastroianni is four years younger than Fuld, which would be a selling point in some cases, but not here. Reality is these guys are non-prospects, so age doesn't really matter. They're both better than Alex Presley, anyway.
Now you have the answer to this pressing topic that I'm pretty sure most Twins fans weren't even aware of. I'm generous like that.
Monday, April 21, 2014
Is Kyle Gibson like, good?
Kyle Gibson had the pedigree of a star after constantly making top prospect lists throughout his minor league career, and not just for the Twins, but for the entire league. He had the track record with some very good minor league seasons, including 2013 before he was called up. Then he finally made his debut last June and looked very good against Kansas City and suddenly the sky was the limit, but that was where the good feelings stopped. In ten starts he compiled a ghastly 6.53 ERA with a drastic drop in his K/9 and way too high of a line drive rate. There were positive signs - his xFIP was a run and a half better than his ERA, his BABIP was unsustainably high, and his HR/FB probably was too. But I was a little bit worried.
This season he's been dazzling, winning all three of his starts on his way to a sparkling 0.93 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. In those three games he's totaled 19.1 innings pitched and allowed a mere 12 hits, although just 10 strikeouts versus 9 walks is a bit troubling. Terrible last year, great this year, which begs the question, Is Kyle Gibson like, good?
The first place to look is always BABIP, and just as he was super lucky last year, he's been very lucky this year with his BABIP at .211 (it was .350 last season). He's also stranded 90.5% of his base runners, a completely ridiculous number, and given up 0 home runs despite 33% of his balls in play being hit in the air - another number that simply won't hold up. Perhaps the scariest part is his strikeouts and walks. After being a big-time strikeout pitcher throughout the minors, and even being respectable in that regard post his surgery, that part of his game has completely gone away in the majors. He was poor last year at just 5.12 K/9, and has taken that down another notch to 4.68 this season. Gross. His walks, never a problem in the minors, have also taken a turn for the worse, from 3.53 per 9 last year to a positively Bedard-ian 4.19 this season.
That makes his K/BB ratio 1.45 last year and 1.1 this season - both numbers would rank dead last in the majors last season. Worse than notorious soft-tossing nancies Scott Diamond, Barry Zito, Trevor Cahill, Joe Saunders, Jeremy Guthrie, Mike Pelfrey, and Jason Hammel - these are not guys you want to mentioned with in pretty much any scenario. I don't know if this is something physical still going on or if it's the "Twins Way" once again screwing up someone's natural talents, but his fastball has fallen from an average of 92.1mph last season to 90.8 mph this year, a fairly alarming drop. He's also not getting batters to chase balls out of the zone and not missing many bats when he does throw strikes. None of this is good.
That's not to say there aren't some positives here. Part of the reason he's had success this year is he's been able to drastically reduce his line drive rate. It was a slightly below average 21.3% last season, and it's been slashed all the way down to 10.5% this season, 4th in the majors (and a number that would easily have been #1 last season). The best part is those line drives from last year are becoming ground balls (+7.4%) and pop-ups (+9.0%), the easiest ways to get dudes out. Based on his batted ball percentage his ERA should be around 2.75, which shows that although Gibson has been extremely lucky this season that doesn't necessarily rule out that he could still be a very good pitcher.
Right now Gibson looks like yet another Twins' pitch-to-contact guy who has gotten extremely lucky this year. He's definitely taken some strides forward from last season, but he isn't really showing that high end ceiling he was projected to have. You simply cannot be a top line pitcher with those kind of K numbers. If he can rediscover his old ability to get whiffs to somewhere in the 6 per 9 inning area he could maybe be a #3 pitcher, but as it stands right now he's looking like no more than a 4-5. Dammit. This is really not how I was hoping this investigation would turn out.
This season he's been dazzling, winning all three of his starts on his way to a sparkling 0.93 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. In those three games he's totaled 19.1 innings pitched and allowed a mere 12 hits, although just 10 strikeouts versus 9 walks is a bit troubling. Terrible last year, great this year, which begs the question, Is Kyle Gibson like, good?
The first place to look is always BABIP, and just as he was super lucky last year, he's been very lucky this year with his BABIP at .211 (it was .350 last season). He's also stranded 90.5% of his base runners, a completely ridiculous number, and given up 0 home runs despite 33% of his balls in play being hit in the air - another number that simply won't hold up. Perhaps the scariest part is his strikeouts and walks. After being a big-time strikeout pitcher throughout the minors, and even being respectable in that regard post his surgery, that part of his game has completely gone away in the majors. He was poor last year at just 5.12 K/9, and has taken that down another notch to 4.68 this season. Gross. His walks, never a problem in the minors, have also taken a turn for the worse, from 3.53 per 9 last year to a positively Bedard-ian 4.19 this season.
That makes his K/BB ratio 1.45 last year and 1.1 this season - both numbers would rank dead last in the majors last season. Worse than notorious soft-tossing nancies Scott Diamond, Barry Zito, Trevor Cahill, Joe Saunders, Jeremy Guthrie, Mike Pelfrey, and Jason Hammel - these are not guys you want to mentioned with in pretty much any scenario. I don't know if this is something physical still going on or if it's the "Twins Way" once again screwing up someone's natural talents, but his fastball has fallen from an average of 92.1mph last season to 90.8 mph this year, a fairly alarming drop. He's also not getting batters to chase balls out of the zone and not missing many bats when he does throw strikes. None of this is good.
That's not to say there aren't some positives here. Part of the reason he's had success this year is he's been able to drastically reduce his line drive rate. It was a slightly below average 21.3% last season, and it's been slashed all the way down to 10.5% this season, 4th in the majors (and a number that would easily have been #1 last season). The best part is those line drives from last year are becoming ground balls (+7.4%) and pop-ups (+9.0%), the easiest ways to get dudes out. Based on his batted ball percentage his ERA should be around 2.75, which shows that although Gibson has been extremely lucky this season that doesn't necessarily rule out that he could still be a very good pitcher.
Right now Gibson looks like yet another Twins' pitch-to-contact guy who has gotten extremely lucky this year. He's definitely taken some strides forward from last season, but he isn't really showing that high end ceiling he was projected to have. You simply cannot be a top line pitcher with those kind of K numbers. If he can rediscover his old ability to get whiffs to somewhere in the 6 per 9 inning area he could maybe be a #3 pitcher, but as it stands right now he's looking like no more than a 4-5. Dammit. This is really not how I was hoping this investigation would turn out.
Thursday, April 17, 2014
Is Chris Colabello like, good?
I've been getting a lot of shit lately because I haven't written anything Twins related. Honestly between the one million day games and my two completely insane children I haven't gotten to see that much. I have seen enough to finally make a post, and why not start with American League RBI leader Chris Colabello?
First off history is generally against him given that not many players don't crack the bigs until they're 29 years old and then go on to be stars. He also struck out 32% of the time last season (in 181 plate appearances) which would put him somewhere near the all-time strikeout record if it held up for a full season). When he did put the ball in play, he popped it up 17.4% of the time, a mark which would have been fourth worst in baseball. In short, Colabello was a really shitty hitter last season.
The Twins were determined to bring him back this year because he had a tremendous 2013 in AAA (.352/.427/.639) and frankly they didn't have a lot of other options unless you still foolishly believe in Chris Parmelee. So far he's rewarded them by hitting .333/.379/.519 with good power (6 doubles, 1 HR) and is leading the AL with 16 RBI. Gaudy numbers, to be sure, and quite the turnaround from last season. The question is, is Chris Colabello like, good?
Two major red flags right off the nerd stat bat - his walk % and his BABIP. Last season Colabello walked in a quite good 11.0% of his plate appearances. That would have ranked him in a tie for 29th in the majors last season. That was one of the only signs for optimism last season with Colabello, and it's completely gone away this year with him walking in just 3.8% of his plate appearances. Usually when a batter makes a leap you see that move in the opposite direction. He somehow went from a patient hitter to someone who walks at a Delmon Young level (they have the exact same walk rate). The other red flag is that his BABIP is .400 this season, a completely unsustainable number. Things do not look good so far for young Mr. Colabello.
There are, however, some positives. Most namely he's making more and better contact. His K rate has dropped from that ugly 32% to a more acceptable 25% - manageable if you're producing offensively - helped by him making contact 70% of the time when he swings this year compared to 65% last year, and more importantly making contact 81% on swings on balls in the strike zone compared to 73% last season. With that contact he's hitting more line drives (19% vs. 14%) and has yet to hit a single infield pop-up this year after doing it like it was his job last season.
So the real truth lies somewhere in between 2013 Chris Colabello and 2014 Chris Colabello. He's not a worse hitter than Nick Punto, but he's not an all-star either, which I suppose gives you a pretty wide range of outcomes but that's the difference between the two Colabellos. He'll probably regress and end up putting up something like .275/.320/.450 with low double digit home runs and an overinflated sense of worth when he finishes with 90-100 RBI. With his subpar defense he'll probably hover around replacement level for his career, and having to play 1B or a corner outfield spot without supplying the high level offense those premium offensive positions usually bring is a big negative.
Basically he's a capable bat of the bench. Who will end up starting 150+ games for the Twins. That says a whole lot.
Coming Monday: Is Kyle Gibson like, good?
First off history is generally against him given that not many players don't crack the bigs until they're 29 years old and then go on to be stars. He also struck out 32% of the time last season (in 181 plate appearances) which would put him somewhere near the all-time strikeout record if it held up for a full season). When he did put the ball in play, he popped it up 17.4% of the time, a mark which would have been fourth worst in baseball. In short, Colabello was a really shitty hitter last season.
The Twins were determined to bring him back this year because he had a tremendous 2013 in AAA (.352/.427/.639) and frankly they didn't have a lot of other options unless you still foolishly believe in Chris Parmelee. So far he's rewarded them by hitting .333/.379/.519 with good power (6 doubles, 1 HR) and is leading the AL with 16 RBI. Gaudy numbers, to be sure, and quite the turnaround from last season. The question is, is Chris Colabello like, good?
Two major red flags right off the nerd stat bat - his walk % and his BABIP. Last season Colabello walked in a quite good 11.0% of his plate appearances. That would have ranked him in a tie for 29th in the majors last season. That was one of the only signs for optimism last season with Colabello, and it's completely gone away this year with him walking in just 3.8% of his plate appearances. Usually when a batter makes a leap you see that move in the opposite direction. He somehow went from a patient hitter to someone who walks at a Delmon Young level (they have the exact same walk rate). The other red flag is that his BABIP is .400 this season, a completely unsustainable number. Things do not look good so far for young Mr. Colabello.
There are, however, some positives. Most namely he's making more and better contact. His K rate has dropped from that ugly 32% to a more acceptable 25% - manageable if you're producing offensively - helped by him making contact 70% of the time when he swings this year compared to 65% last year, and more importantly making contact 81% on swings on balls in the strike zone compared to 73% last season. With that contact he's hitting more line drives (19% vs. 14%) and has yet to hit a single infield pop-up this year after doing it like it was his job last season.
So the real truth lies somewhere in between 2013 Chris Colabello and 2014 Chris Colabello. He's not a worse hitter than Nick Punto, but he's not an all-star either, which I suppose gives you a pretty wide range of outcomes but that's the difference between the two Colabellos. He'll probably regress and end up putting up something like .275/.320/.450 with low double digit home runs and an overinflated sense of worth when he finishes with 90-100 RBI. With his subpar defense he'll probably hover around replacement level for his career, and having to play 1B or a corner outfield spot without supplying the high level offense those premium offensive positions usually bring is a big negative.
Basically he's a capable bat of the bench. Who will end up starting 150+ games for the Twins. That says a whole lot.
Coming Monday: Is Kyle Gibson like, good?
Tuesday, April 15, 2014
Welcome Aboard, Gaston Diedhiou!
In a move that seemingly nobody saw coming, the Gophers received a commitment from Gaston Diedhiou for 2014, and there is pretty much zero info out there about this guy. Most of the recruiting sites didn't even have a page for him until he signed. Here's what we know:
- He's 6-9, 225 lbs (maybe, but listed anywhere from 206-240) with a long wingspan over seven feet. He fits a need at PF, specifically a physical power forward, and hopefully he can be a rim protecting center when Eliason and Walker move on as well. If he can play.
- He's from Senegal and played at the Canarias Basketball Academy in Spain last season. He's the fifth player from there in this class to sign with a D-I program (Maryland, Louisville, Pitt, and UC-Riverside got the others) so they at least seem to put out decent talent. They've had 15 other guys sign with D-1 programs the last four years, but the best of the list is Boris Bojanovsky at Florida State.
- He will be 21 when he starts his career. That's right, a 21-year old freshman.
- It's irresistible to compare him to Gorgui Dieng, given their similarities and the Pitino connection. This kid is not Dieng. He may become him, but he's not him at this point at all.
Given that there aren't any scouting reports out there about him all you can do is watch a couple of youtube videos and I'm cautiously optimistic here. Keeping in mind that the level of competition looked rather sub-par and that this was a highlight video with the whole point being to showcase the best of his game, Diedhiou showed a few nice things.
He's definitely big and athletic, and he looks strong, although we'll see how that translates to the Big Ten. He appears to fundamentally understand rebounding and has good instincts, his free throw form and results look good, and they even showed him hitting a couple mid-range jumpers. He's comfortable putting the ball on the floor from the top of the key to get to the rim, and looks comfortable in the post going to his right either for a lay up if he can get around his man or a smooth looking jump hook. He only went left from the block once in the video, so that's likely something he'll need to work on.
You will hear him called a project, and maybe rightfully so, but he looked more polished in that video than I was expecting, and as a 20-year old he should be. Again, level of competition, highlight video and all those caveats but I was impressed. Hopefully I don't end up looking like an idiot. I'm getting kind of tired of that.
- He's 6-9, 225 lbs (maybe, but listed anywhere from 206-240) with a long wingspan over seven feet. He fits a need at PF, specifically a physical power forward, and hopefully he can be a rim protecting center when Eliason and Walker move on as well. If he can play.
- He's from Senegal and played at the Canarias Basketball Academy in Spain last season. He's the fifth player from there in this class to sign with a D-I program (Maryland, Louisville, Pitt, and UC-Riverside got the others) so they at least seem to put out decent talent. They've had 15 other guys sign with D-1 programs the last four years, but the best of the list is Boris Bojanovsky at Florida State.
- He will be 21 when he starts his career. That's right, a 21-year old freshman.
- It's irresistible to compare him to Gorgui Dieng, given their similarities and the Pitino connection. This kid is not Dieng. He may become him, but he's not him at this point at all.
Given that there aren't any scouting reports out there about him all you can do is watch a couple of youtube videos and I'm cautiously optimistic here. Keeping in mind that the level of competition looked rather sub-par and that this was a highlight video with the whole point being to showcase the best of his game, Diedhiou showed a few nice things.
He's definitely big and athletic, and he looks strong, although we'll see how that translates to the Big Ten. He appears to fundamentally understand rebounding and has good instincts, his free throw form and results look good, and they even showed him hitting a couple mid-range jumpers. He's comfortable putting the ball on the floor from the top of the key to get to the rim, and looks comfortable in the post going to his right either for a lay up if he can get around his man or a smooth looking jump hook. He only went left from the block once in the video, so that's likely something he'll need to work on.
You will hear him called a project, and maybe rightfully so, but he looked more polished in that video than I was expecting, and as a 20-year old he should be. Again, level of competition, highlight video and all those caveats but I was impressed. Hopefully I don't end up looking like an idiot. I'm getting kind of tired of that.
Wednesday, April 9, 2014
Season's Over
I guess I haven't posted in a while and you've probably been sad about it and cried a lot. For that I suppose I'm sorry. I've been busy and tired and quite lazy.
So late congratulations to the Gophers on winning the NIT. It sucks to be in the NIT, but if you get stuck there you might as well win the damn thing. No, this is not better than a loss in the First Four as far as being a fan or program-wise, but hey, a bunch of kids worked their asses off, got to spend some time in the NYC, and won a championship for themselves. Awesome for them, and although I doubt it helps recruiting it probably doesn't hurt to play two games in MSG on ESPN. Great seeing Austin Hollins win MVP or MOP or whatever too after playing great, especially because somewhere around early mid-season some of the looney tune fans around here (gopherhole) were calling for him to be benched. Because they're super rational you see.
Meanwhile Joey King reminded us that off the bench scoring guy is probably his upside, not his downside, and Dre Hollins told us the reason he didn't look healthy the second half of the year was because he wasn't healthy the second half of the year. Malik Smith managed to hit a couple of shots to close out his career, Oto Osenieks came back for an encore, and Maverick still fell down a lot. Mo and Elliott continued to look like two halves of an excellent player, and DeAndre Mathieu looked like a contender for Big 10 Player of the Year next season. Fun end to the year, even if I only watched 1.5 games of the entire NIT. Sorry.
So close the books on 2013-2014, and I'd probably give the season a B. I didn't expect this team to make the NCAA Tournament and they came awfully damn close, then closed with a strong run through the NIT. It pains me to think that it's likely they were 1 win away from an NCAA bid and that the win could have come at any time, including at home against shitty Illinois. Of course, it's also possible that even with that win they could have gotten snubbed which would really sting. Good season based on preseason expectations, but slightly poor season based on mid-season feelings. Sounds like a B.
Now we move on to Pitino Year 2. It's a pretty solid roster. The guards should be outstanding with Dre Hollins (hopefully healthy) and Mathieu forming one of the better back courts in the conference, if not the country and likely, I think, solid back-ups in Daquein McNeil who looked pretty good as a freshman and will be a year older and freshman Nate Mason. Losing both true 3s in Austin Hollins and Malik Smith will sting, but JuCo swingman Carlos Morris can hopefully fill those shoes. King and Charles Buggs are the returning PF, but freshman Josh Martin already has a Big 10 body so should be able to give minutes, if nothing else, and hopefully more. Center will be the same two headed monster but with another year stronger, wiser, and hopefully better.
Plenty of questions and holes, but that describes most teams at this point, and having your starting back court and center position rock solid is a good start. Plus the Gophers have three open scholarships for next season right now. One of them is supposed to be filled by Djuan Piper, according to the rumors, and it was supposed to happen tonight. It sounds like his decision has been pushed to tomorrow (Thursday) and according to the rumors it's either because of academic issues or second thoughts. Neither is good. He's ranked #147 by 247sports now and is a damn sight better than anything else the Gophers are going to pluck from the high school ranks this late - Spring recruiting can get rough (Mav -> hi!) and Piper and Bakary Konate, who I need to write up at some point, look like about it.
Of course, the great thing about the Gophers' position is they have space and they have needs, and with the transfer happy NCAA culture these days (which I enjoy) a graduate transfer PF or shooter guy would make a whole ton of sense for both parties. A lot of names are starting to surface and there are a lot more sure to come, not to mention non-grad transfers who could hope to get waivers or just sit a year before playing. The Gophers have a lot of flexibility with the roster for next season, and there's no way they're done yet. This should be fun.
So late congratulations to the Gophers on winning the NIT. It sucks to be in the NIT, but if you get stuck there you might as well win the damn thing. No, this is not better than a loss in the First Four as far as being a fan or program-wise, but hey, a bunch of kids worked their asses off, got to spend some time in the NYC, and won a championship for themselves. Awesome for them, and although I doubt it helps recruiting it probably doesn't hurt to play two games in MSG on ESPN. Great seeing Austin Hollins win MVP or MOP or whatever too after playing great, especially because somewhere around early mid-season some of the looney tune fans around here (gopherhole) were calling for him to be benched. Because they're super rational you see.
Meanwhile Joey King reminded us that off the bench scoring guy is probably his upside, not his downside, and Dre Hollins told us the reason he didn't look healthy the second half of the year was because he wasn't healthy the second half of the year. Malik Smith managed to hit a couple of shots to close out his career, Oto Osenieks came back for an encore, and Maverick still fell down a lot. Mo and Elliott continued to look like two halves of an excellent player, and DeAndre Mathieu looked like a contender for Big 10 Player of the Year next season. Fun end to the year, even if I only watched 1.5 games of the entire NIT. Sorry.
So close the books on 2013-2014, and I'd probably give the season a B. I didn't expect this team to make the NCAA Tournament and they came awfully damn close, then closed with a strong run through the NIT. It pains me to think that it's likely they were 1 win away from an NCAA bid and that the win could have come at any time, including at home against shitty Illinois. Of course, it's also possible that even with that win they could have gotten snubbed which would really sting. Good season based on preseason expectations, but slightly poor season based on mid-season feelings. Sounds like a B.
Now we move on to Pitino Year 2. It's a pretty solid roster. The guards should be outstanding with Dre Hollins (hopefully healthy) and Mathieu forming one of the better back courts in the conference, if not the country and likely, I think, solid back-ups in Daquein McNeil who looked pretty good as a freshman and will be a year older and freshman Nate Mason. Losing both true 3s in Austin Hollins and Malik Smith will sting, but JuCo swingman Carlos Morris can hopefully fill those shoes. King and Charles Buggs are the returning PF, but freshman Josh Martin already has a Big 10 body so should be able to give minutes, if nothing else, and hopefully more. Center will be the same two headed monster but with another year stronger, wiser, and hopefully better.
Plenty of questions and holes, but that describes most teams at this point, and having your starting back court and center position rock solid is a good start. Plus the Gophers have three open scholarships for next season right now. One of them is supposed to be filled by Djuan Piper, according to the rumors, and it was supposed to happen tonight. It sounds like his decision has been pushed to tomorrow (Thursday) and according to the rumors it's either because of academic issues or second thoughts. Neither is good. He's ranked #147 by 247sports now and is a damn sight better than anything else the Gophers are going to pluck from the high school ranks this late - Spring recruiting can get rough (Mav -> hi!) and Piper and Bakary Konate, who I need to write up at some point, look like about it.
Of course, the great thing about the Gophers' position is they have space and they have needs, and with the transfer happy NCAA culture these days (which I enjoy) a graduate transfer PF or shooter guy would make a whole ton of sense for both parties. A lot of names are starting to surface and there are a lot more sure to come, not to mention non-grad transfers who could hope to get waivers or just sit a year before playing. The Gophers have a lot of flexibility with the roster for next season, and there's no way they're done yet. This should be fun.
Wednesday, April 2, 2014
Gophers 67, Florida State 64
Well they won. Winning is better than losing, right? Even in the NIT which forces me and you to watch another game that we barely care about. They certainly tried to lose, but FSU just wanted the loss more. Anyway, here are ten things I liked and didn't like.
1. Joey King was a total spaz. For someone who was such a big part of the offense in this NIT run to win with him scoring just 3 points is a good thing. He only played 7 minutes due to foul trouble from the get go and I have no idea what he was doing out there. With Eliason out the Gopher "bigs" were in such bad shape Oto had to come back and play, yet King's out there jumping around like a little kid up past his bedtime. Maybe he was trying to hard to be a major factor, but the majority of his fouls were just stupid and caused by hyperactivity and lack of body control. It was probably the worst game anybody has ever played in the history of basketball. Probably.
2. Speaking of Oto, was it all just a lie? It has to be, right? Just a month or so ago we were all told Oto had such a serious injury that he had to hang it up for his career, yet here the Gophers are short handed and all of a sudden he's not only playing, but playing 32 minutes. He mostly looked like a guy who hadn't been playing basketball, but he made due with a hell of an effort and was pretty key for the Gophers - that rebound off a missed FT he grabbed in overtime was 100% pure hustle as he was boxed out by two Seminoles and just forced his way through. But clearly Pitino told hm he probably wasn't going to get minutes next year and Oto chose to retire rather than transfer, and they concocted this bogus story. I get it, but it sucks when it blows up like this. I can never trust anyone ever again.
3. Florida State did the Gophers a lot of favors. With Minnesota undermanned and undersized in the paint FSU should have attacked the basket all night. They grabbed 43% of their misses and were clearly better and bigger, but for some reason the majority of the night they were content to shoot perimeter jumpers, going 1-9 in the first half from three and then still doing it, going 3-9 in the second half and overtime. When they made their big run to take the lead as the game was winding down they did it by pounding the ball inside, mainly to Okaro White, and it worked (helped by a Gophers shooting slump). I have no idea why this wasn't the game plan consistently, especially when everyone on the Gophers ended up with foul trouble. I assume it's because Florida State is a dumb team, year after year.
4. Speaking of FSU, their defense was really horrible. It's surprising because Leonard Hamilton almost always has his Seminole teams as top defensive squads and their size, but the Gopher guards had their way with FSU driving to the paint last night. Fifty-one of the teams 67 points came from their guards, which shouldn't be surprising given the team make-up I guess, but Austin Hollins was as driving machine all night and Dre Hollins and Dre Mathieu were able to waltz in for easy layups on back to back plays near the end of regulation. With Florida State's size and shot blocking (23rd in the country by percentages) two little guys like that shouldn't be able to get to the rim, but they did it consistently either scoring or finding others for open looks. FSU also turned the ball over a ton, but enough about FSU. They done.
5. The A topic on twitter last night was the horrible announcing team. And they weren't wrong. Bobby Knight was terrible. Long stretches with no talking, rambling Abe Simpson like stories about wearing an onion on his belt (it was the style at the time) and his old teams and players, harping on the same points over and over, and asking his colleagues questions about the game he was allegedly watching. I usually like Knight as an announcer and I'm not going to make the obvious joke about him being drunk and/or senile because it was pretty clear he was just completely bored with the game. Even as it got towards the end and was supposedly getting pretty exciting he was still droning on about some dude from his 1978 team or something. He clearly has no interest in the NIT, and honestly I can't even blame him. Even I just wanted that game to hurry up and end.
6. The court was left alone, unlike NCAA games. You remember how back in the day the host schools court for the NCAA Tournament basically looked the way the court always looked? Maybe they'd change a logo or two but it was basically the same? And now how they white wash all courts to look identical, so if you're watching a game in Orlando and switch to a game in Anaheim it looks exactly the same except the location name is on the baseline? I was afraid they'd do something similar to MSG, but luckily they left it alone other than replacing any Knicks stuff with NIT stuff. Maybe it was apathy because it's the NIT, I don't know but I liked it. I'm actually now realizing I didn't notice if they changed it for the Sweet 16/Elite 8 games. This would be a way better point if I remembered to notice.
7. Malik Smith is broken. It's to the point where I'm actually feeling bad for him since this is the way his career is ending. He missed three of his four free throw attempts including two with eight seconds left and the Gophers up 3 so one make wins the game, and all four of his three-point attempts which drops him to two makes in his last 34 attempts and a line of 8-58 since he exploded against Nebraska. Did that game wreck him? It shouldn't considering he had a few games like that in his FIU days, but the results since are pretty remarkable. If you watch him his fundamentals are all over the place now too - he's not even squaring up to shoot a lot of the time. It would be nice for him to have a good game to close out his career against SMU, but at this point I think you have to hope for just a non-shitty game.
8. The Gophers did a really nice job of shutting down Aaron Thomas. Thomas played 36 minutes before fouling out and managed just 3 points on 1-8 shooting. Thomas led the team in scoring this year at 14.1 per, hit double figures in 16 straight games and 27 of their last 30, and had been over 20 points in each of their NIT victories before the Gophers stopped him. This is where I'd write about how they did it but I forgot to pay attention to it and by the time I realized they had completely stymied him he was in the process of fouling out. I'm a really good blogger.
9. Dre Hollins looked a lot better. His shot is still iffy, but he seemed much more lively to me and was attacking the rim more like he did prior to his injury, and his defense was a lot better too. He's had 2 steals in three of four NIT games, and prior to that the last time he had more than 1 was the Ohio State, two games prior to getting hurt. He's also had 7 and 4 assists the last two games with the last time he had more than 3 the Purdue game in Minneapolis on January 5th. I was of the opinion that shutting him down for the NIT and making sure he's healthy for next season might have made some sense, but everything seems to be coming up Milhouse so party on.
10. So now the Gophers have a chance at a Championship. And what do you hear over and over? "Making a deep run in the NIT is a springboard to success the following season." Is this true? I don't know, let's look.
NIT CHAMPIONS (next season results):
2013: Baylor (sweet 16) over Iowa (First Four)
2012: Stanford (missed tournament) over Minnesota (second round)
2011: Wichita State (first round) over Alabama (first round)
2010: Dayton (missed tournament) over North Carolina (elite 8)
2009: Penn State (missed tournament) over Baylor (elite 8)
That's the last five years which is all the effort I'm going to put into this. Seven of the 10 teams made the NCAA Tournament the following year with four of those recording a victory. I'm going to say that making the NIT Championship is a decent indicator of a team that makes the NCAA Tournament the following season but that's about it - and I'll take it. With only two seniors departing from this team they fit the profile. Maybe next year is the year I will finally see LOCK: Minnesota in ESPN's Bubble Watch. Still waiting.
Up next is SMU, a really good team who probably should have made the NCAA Tournament. I might preview it if I feel like it later. No promises.
1. Joey King was a total spaz. For someone who was such a big part of the offense in this NIT run to win with him scoring just 3 points is a good thing. He only played 7 minutes due to foul trouble from the get go and I have no idea what he was doing out there. With Eliason out the Gopher "bigs" were in such bad shape Oto had to come back and play, yet King's out there jumping around like a little kid up past his bedtime. Maybe he was trying to hard to be a major factor, but the majority of his fouls were just stupid and caused by hyperactivity and lack of body control. It was probably the worst game anybody has ever played in the history of basketball. Probably.
2. Speaking of Oto, was it all just a lie? It has to be, right? Just a month or so ago we were all told Oto had such a serious injury that he had to hang it up for his career, yet here the Gophers are short handed and all of a sudden he's not only playing, but playing 32 minutes. He mostly looked like a guy who hadn't been playing basketball, but he made due with a hell of an effort and was pretty key for the Gophers - that rebound off a missed FT he grabbed in overtime was 100% pure hustle as he was boxed out by two Seminoles and just forced his way through. But clearly Pitino told hm he probably wasn't going to get minutes next year and Oto chose to retire rather than transfer, and they concocted this bogus story. I get it, but it sucks when it blows up like this. I can never trust anyone ever again.
3. Florida State did the Gophers a lot of favors. With Minnesota undermanned and undersized in the paint FSU should have attacked the basket all night. They grabbed 43% of their misses and were clearly better and bigger, but for some reason the majority of the night they were content to shoot perimeter jumpers, going 1-9 in the first half from three and then still doing it, going 3-9 in the second half and overtime. When they made their big run to take the lead as the game was winding down they did it by pounding the ball inside, mainly to Okaro White, and it worked (helped by a Gophers shooting slump). I have no idea why this wasn't the game plan consistently, especially when everyone on the Gophers ended up with foul trouble. I assume it's because Florida State is a dumb team, year after year.
4. Speaking of FSU, their defense was really horrible. It's surprising because Leonard Hamilton almost always has his Seminole teams as top defensive squads and their size, but the Gopher guards had their way with FSU driving to the paint last night. Fifty-one of the teams 67 points came from their guards, which shouldn't be surprising given the team make-up I guess, but Austin Hollins was as driving machine all night and Dre Hollins and Dre Mathieu were able to waltz in for easy layups on back to back plays near the end of regulation. With Florida State's size and shot blocking (23rd in the country by percentages) two little guys like that shouldn't be able to get to the rim, but they did it consistently either scoring or finding others for open looks. FSU also turned the ball over a ton, but enough about FSU. They done.
5. The A topic on twitter last night was the horrible announcing team. And they weren't wrong. Bobby Knight was terrible. Long stretches with no talking, rambling Abe Simpson like stories about wearing an onion on his belt (it was the style at the time) and his old teams and players, harping on the same points over and over, and asking his colleagues questions about the game he was allegedly watching. I usually like Knight as an announcer and I'm not going to make the obvious joke about him being drunk and/or senile because it was pretty clear he was just completely bored with the game. Even as it got towards the end and was supposedly getting pretty exciting he was still droning on about some dude from his 1978 team or something. He clearly has no interest in the NIT, and honestly I can't even blame him. Even I just wanted that game to hurry up and end.
6. The court was left alone, unlike NCAA games. You remember how back in the day the host schools court for the NCAA Tournament basically looked the way the court always looked? Maybe they'd change a logo or two but it was basically the same? And now how they white wash all courts to look identical, so if you're watching a game in Orlando and switch to a game in Anaheim it looks exactly the same except the location name is on the baseline? I was afraid they'd do something similar to MSG, but luckily they left it alone other than replacing any Knicks stuff with NIT stuff. Maybe it was apathy because it's the NIT, I don't know but I liked it. I'm actually now realizing I didn't notice if they changed it for the Sweet 16/Elite 8 games. This would be a way better point if I remembered to notice.
7. Malik Smith is broken. It's to the point where I'm actually feeling bad for him since this is the way his career is ending. He missed three of his four free throw attempts including two with eight seconds left and the Gophers up 3 so one make wins the game, and all four of his three-point attempts which drops him to two makes in his last 34 attempts and a line of 8-58 since he exploded against Nebraska. Did that game wreck him? It shouldn't considering he had a few games like that in his FIU days, but the results since are pretty remarkable. If you watch him his fundamentals are all over the place now too - he's not even squaring up to shoot a lot of the time. It would be nice for him to have a good game to close out his career against SMU, but at this point I think you have to hope for just a non-shitty game.
8. The Gophers did a really nice job of shutting down Aaron Thomas. Thomas played 36 minutes before fouling out and managed just 3 points on 1-8 shooting. Thomas led the team in scoring this year at 14.1 per, hit double figures in 16 straight games and 27 of their last 30, and had been over 20 points in each of their NIT victories before the Gophers stopped him. This is where I'd write about how they did it but I forgot to pay attention to it and by the time I realized they had completely stymied him he was in the process of fouling out. I'm a really good blogger.
9. Dre Hollins looked a lot better. His shot is still iffy, but he seemed much more lively to me and was attacking the rim more like he did prior to his injury, and his defense was a lot better too. He's had 2 steals in three of four NIT games, and prior to that the last time he had more than 1 was the Ohio State, two games prior to getting hurt. He's also had 7 and 4 assists the last two games with the last time he had more than 3 the Purdue game in Minneapolis on January 5th. I was of the opinion that shutting him down for the NIT and making sure he's healthy for next season might have made some sense, but everything seems to be coming up Milhouse so party on.
10. So now the Gophers have a chance at a Championship. And what do you hear over and over? "Making a deep run in the NIT is a springboard to success the following season." Is this true? I don't know, let's look.
NIT CHAMPIONS (next season results):
2013: Baylor (sweet 16) over Iowa (First Four)
2012: Stanford (missed tournament) over Minnesota (second round)
2011: Wichita State (first round) over Alabama (first round)
2010: Dayton (missed tournament) over North Carolina (elite 8)
2009: Penn State (missed tournament) over Baylor (elite 8)
That's the last five years which is all the effort I'm going to put into this. Seven of the 10 teams made the NCAA Tournament the following year with four of those recording a victory. I'm going to say that making the NIT Championship is a decent indicator of a team that makes the NCAA Tournament the following season but that's about it - and I'll take it. With only two seniors departing from this team they fit the profile. Maybe next year is the year I will finally see LOCK: Minnesota in ESPN's Bubble Watch. Still waiting.
Up next is SMU, a really good team who probably should have made the NCAA Tournament. I might preview it if I feel like it later. No promises.
Friday, March 28, 2014
Sweet Sixteen Predictions (Friday)
Well I couldn't have read that Wisconsin/Baylor game any worse. I expected Frank Kaminsky to get killed, but instead he did the killing. It was like watching The Others and being like, man this is way creepy poor Nicole Kidman but then bam it turns out Nicole Kidman is dead the whole time. Oh, spoiler alert. Anyway thanks to Florida coming through, a couple over/unders, and hitting two middles with second half bets I overcame the big Baylor loss and made a little bit of money. Hopefully there's more to come tonight.
#11 Tennessee vs. #2 Michigan.
Advanced metrics absolutely love Tennessee. They rank 16th in offensive points per possession and 17th in defensive points per possession. The only other teams to rank in the top 20 in both this year are Wichita State, Florida, Virginia, and Louisville. That's a pretty damn impressive group. However I think this is a classic case of beating up on bad teams. The Vols have a win over Virginia back in December, but do you know their next best win? That win over a fading Iowa team. Next up? A win over a fading and overseeded UMass. Then Georgia, LSU, and Arkansas. See what I'm saying? Yeah they've won three games to get here and that's impressive, but I am not loving them.
Michigan, on the other hand, seems to be peaking at the right time. They destroyed both Wofford and Texas and everybody's clicking. Tennessee has overwhelmed their opponents with their size and rebounding so far, but that won't happen against Michigan. Jordan Morgan and Jon Horford might suck offensively but they can play defense. From there I think Michigan's perimeter guys can out score Tennessee's. I just think Michigan is a far superior team, so I'm going with Michigan -2 for four units
#7 UCONN vs. #3 Iowa State.
The loss of Georges Niang didn't hurt Iowa State against North Carolina, but it very well could against UCONN. Without him the Cyclones are very small, and although Melvin Ejim and Dustin Hogue play bigger than their size would suggest I'm not so sure that gets it done against a more rough and tumble former Big East team. It will also allow UCONN to go small with what is probably their best lineup, and one they have only been able to use about 5% of the time over the last 5 games because they generally need to have either Amida Brimah or Phillip Nolan in there at center for extra size. That's not really a concern against a Niang-less Iowa State, and Brimah's foul issues become much less important.
Then of course there's the whole Kemba Walker thing Shabazz Napier has going on right now. He's put up 24-8-6 against St. Joe's and 25-5-3 against Villanova despite missing a huge chunk of the first half. And man did you see some of those shots against Nova? Right now he's fearless and he's hot, and that is a dangerous combination to run up against. DeAndre Daniels seems to be peaking at the right time, and Ryan Boatright played as well as I've ever seen him play against Villanova. It wouldn't shock me to see this team make the Final Four. Sorry Clones. UCONN +2 for 3 units, and also a unit on the over 146 - ISU likes to get up and down, and I expect UCONN to get in the spirit.
#8 Kentucky vs. #4 Louisville.
Easily my most anticipated match-up of the weekend, and also the hardest to read for me. Before the tournament started I would have gone with Louisville -4.5 without hesitation, but Kentucky's win over Wichita was one of the most impressive top to bottom games I've seen anybody play this year. Everyone said at the beginning of the year that Kentucky was the most talented team in the country and if their talent came together they'd be the team to beat in the tournament, and that is still the case with at least five guys who are likely to be NBA first round picks in either this year's draft or the next. So that's the question, has this team now come together enough to beat the defending champs who, with the exception of the Manhattan game, have been rolling?
Well, it was just the sixth time this year a team scored 70+ against Wichita, and Kentucky shot 54% while doing it so they played pretty much a perfect shooting game on the offensive end. With Andrew Harrison's six turnovers and a total of 11 for the Wildcats vs. just 11 assists that tells me they didn't suddenly "get it" and considering six of those assists came from Julius Randle it's pretty clear the Kentucky guards still don't really know how to run a team. Another big piece of Kentucky's win was their 22 offensive rebounds, but the presence of Montrezl Harrell for Louisville should guarantee that at a minimum that number is cut in half, and the rest of Louisville's guys should be able to keep Kentucky off the boards better than Wichita did. Plus when it comes down to Calipari vs. Pitino with almost a week to prepare, I'll take Pitino every time. Louisville -4.5 for one unit and another unit on the over 139. Louisville tries to speed teams up and that should work beautifully against Kentucky.
#4 Michigan State vs. #1 Virginia.
People really seem to underrate Virginia this year, but a 16-2 run through the ACC, an ACC Tournament Championship, and a thorough thrashing of Memphis (with a mini scare against Coastal thrown in there) is one hell of a run. They've mainly done it with an incredible defense and a slow pace that left them allowing the fewest points per game in the country at 55.5. They also score at an efficient rate, a top 10 in the country rate, although they don't shoot the ball particularly well and can be prone to shooting slumps.
The Spartans should be able to handle them, however, because they're one of the best shooting teams in the country (13th by eFG%) and the execute extremely well and move the ball well (62% of baskets come from an assist, also 13th). I tried to find teams that have a similar profile that Virginia played this year and the closest two I could find were Duke and Wisconsin, team's that gave Virginia two of its six losses this year, and Michigan State is both a better rebounding and defensive team than either Duke or Virginia. Plus the Spartans put up those impressive numbers while rarely being healthy, and now they are. The pace shouldn't bother Sparty either, they can grind it out with the best of them. One unit on Michigan State -2, and two units on the under 127.
#11 Tennessee vs. #2 Michigan.
Advanced metrics absolutely love Tennessee. They rank 16th in offensive points per possession and 17th in defensive points per possession. The only other teams to rank in the top 20 in both this year are Wichita State, Florida, Virginia, and Louisville. That's a pretty damn impressive group. However I think this is a classic case of beating up on bad teams. The Vols have a win over Virginia back in December, but do you know their next best win? That win over a fading Iowa team. Next up? A win over a fading and overseeded UMass. Then Georgia, LSU, and Arkansas. See what I'm saying? Yeah they've won three games to get here and that's impressive, but I am not loving them.
Michigan, on the other hand, seems to be peaking at the right time. They destroyed both Wofford and Texas and everybody's clicking. Tennessee has overwhelmed their opponents with their size and rebounding so far, but that won't happen against Michigan. Jordan Morgan and Jon Horford might suck offensively but they can play defense. From there I think Michigan's perimeter guys can out score Tennessee's. I just think Michigan is a far superior team, so I'm going with Michigan -2 for four units
#7 UCONN vs. #3 Iowa State.
The loss of Georges Niang didn't hurt Iowa State against North Carolina, but it very well could against UCONN. Without him the Cyclones are very small, and although Melvin Ejim and Dustin Hogue play bigger than their size would suggest I'm not so sure that gets it done against a more rough and tumble former Big East team. It will also allow UCONN to go small with what is probably their best lineup, and one they have only been able to use about 5% of the time over the last 5 games because they generally need to have either Amida Brimah or Phillip Nolan in there at center for extra size. That's not really a concern against a Niang-less Iowa State, and Brimah's foul issues become much less important.
Then of course there's the whole Kemba Walker thing Shabazz Napier has going on right now. He's put up 24-8-6 against St. Joe's and 25-5-3 against Villanova despite missing a huge chunk of the first half. And man did you see some of those shots against Nova? Right now he's fearless and he's hot, and that is a dangerous combination to run up against. DeAndre Daniels seems to be peaking at the right time, and Ryan Boatright played as well as I've ever seen him play against Villanova. It wouldn't shock me to see this team make the Final Four. Sorry Clones. UCONN +2 for 3 units, and also a unit on the over 146 - ISU likes to get up and down, and I expect UCONN to get in the spirit.
#8 Kentucky vs. #4 Louisville.
Easily my most anticipated match-up of the weekend, and also the hardest to read for me. Before the tournament started I would have gone with Louisville -4.5 without hesitation, but Kentucky's win over Wichita was one of the most impressive top to bottom games I've seen anybody play this year. Everyone said at the beginning of the year that Kentucky was the most talented team in the country and if their talent came together they'd be the team to beat in the tournament, and that is still the case with at least five guys who are likely to be NBA first round picks in either this year's draft or the next. So that's the question, has this team now come together enough to beat the defending champs who, with the exception of the Manhattan game, have been rolling?
Well, it was just the sixth time this year a team scored 70+ against Wichita, and Kentucky shot 54% while doing it so they played pretty much a perfect shooting game on the offensive end. With Andrew Harrison's six turnovers and a total of 11 for the Wildcats vs. just 11 assists that tells me they didn't suddenly "get it" and considering six of those assists came from Julius Randle it's pretty clear the Kentucky guards still don't really know how to run a team. Another big piece of Kentucky's win was their 22 offensive rebounds, but the presence of Montrezl Harrell for Louisville should guarantee that at a minimum that number is cut in half, and the rest of Louisville's guys should be able to keep Kentucky off the boards better than Wichita did. Plus when it comes down to Calipari vs. Pitino with almost a week to prepare, I'll take Pitino every time. Louisville -4.5 for one unit and another unit on the over 139. Louisville tries to speed teams up and that should work beautifully against Kentucky.
#4 Michigan State vs. #1 Virginia.
People really seem to underrate Virginia this year, but a 16-2 run through the ACC, an ACC Tournament Championship, and a thorough thrashing of Memphis (with a mini scare against Coastal thrown in there) is one hell of a run. They've mainly done it with an incredible defense and a slow pace that left them allowing the fewest points per game in the country at 55.5. They also score at an efficient rate, a top 10 in the country rate, although they don't shoot the ball particularly well and can be prone to shooting slumps.
The Spartans should be able to handle them, however, because they're one of the best shooting teams in the country (13th by eFG%) and the execute extremely well and move the ball well (62% of baskets come from an assist, also 13th). I tried to find teams that have a similar profile that Virginia played this year and the closest two I could find were Duke and Wisconsin, team's that gave Virginia two of its six losses this year, and Michigan State is both a better rebounding and defensive team than either Duke or Virginia. Plus the Spartans put up those impressive numbers while rarely being healthy, and now they are. The pace shouldn't bother Sparty either, they can grind it out with the best of them. One unit on Michigan State -2, and two units on the under 127.
Wednesday, March 26, 2014
Sweet 16 Thoughts - Thursday
So far things in the NCAA Tournament have gone pretty close to what I expected. All my Final Four teams are still alive (Florida, Louisville, Arizona, Michigan State - and yes I know that's a pretty popular combination), and I called Kansas going out early. My only real misses were believing in Creighton (or maybe not believing in Baylor), believing in Duke despite knowing how horrible their defense was (I have no idea why I didn't take Michigan here), and thinking Syracuse had figured out their issues. Overall, my bracket still has a chance to win, so thank you for asking. Anyway, here's what's happening on Thursday:
#11 Dayton vs. #10 Stanford.
There are many great looking games that will be played this weekend, and this game will also be played. There isn't a lot of shine to it because even though both teams are underdogs neither team is very sexy. Stanford is nerds and Dayton is Dayton. Although Dayton looks like the more athletic team with guys like Sibert, Sanford, and Pierre who can kind of do a little of everything, Stanford has not just size but skilled size in Dwight Powell and Stefan Nastic, as well as Josh Huestis who seems to play big.
It should be a close game, but unfortunately for lose who were hoping to experience a little schadenfreude at the expense of Reid Travis with Johnny Dawkins flaming out and getting fired (which clearly isn't happening now), I think he gets another big win. I'm on Stanford here laying the three.
#6 Baylor vs. #2 Wisconsin.
I know Scott Drew is a horrible coach. I know it all the way to the bottom of my tiny black heart, but I'm not so sure Bo Ryan is that much better, at least this year and Baylor is absolutely clicking at the right time. More than that, how the hell is Wisconsin going to deal with Baylor's size and athleticism? Cory Jefferson is what Nigel Hayes hopes to be in four years and he's having a great run to end his career. Isaiah Austin seems to finally be getting it, Rico Gathers is a rebounding machine, and the wings are Royce O'Neale and Taurean Prince who are 6-6 and 6-7. Frank Kaminsky might actually get killed. You realize Duje Dukan will likely have to be prominently involved here?
Wisconsin's only chance is if Scott Drew plays a zone, which is actually Baylor's preferred, and they get hot. Drew is dumb enough to do it, but even if he does their size might bother Wisconsin enough so it actually works. This is still my biggest bet of the weekend at five units to cover three and a half and another unit on the moneyline. Also taking the under 137 for a unit, as I think Wisconsin is going to play slower and hope Baylor is dumb enough to not be able to guard. Also possible.
#4 UCLA vs. #1 Florida.
Florida was my pick to win a couple months ago and still is, and I realize that's not really going out on a limb but I just can't find any weaknesses here. They have the second best defense in the country (on a per possession basis) behind Arizona and a top 20 offense as well. They have senior leadership that seems to count in March and excellent guard play with the SEC player of the year in Scottie Wilbekin. They have five guys who can have a blow up game so if anybody is off (maybe outside Wilbekin if we're talking things beyond shooting) oh well just move on to the next guy.
I like UCLA a lot and Kyle Anderson is one of my favorite players and if Zach LaVine and Norman Powell are clicking those three and Jordan Adams form a damn good four pack, but LaVine has been horrible lately. For UCLA to win you're going to be counting on the Wear twins and Tony Parker to check Florida's group of tight end looking guys who can come at you in waves. No chance. Florida -4.5 for three units. I also think there's a decent chance this goes over the 137 because UCLA likes to run and Florida can run with anybody, but I can also see a repeat of their game against Pitt where the Bruins can't score and the Gators just grind clock. Pass for now, but I'm sure I'll do something with it prior to tip because I'm an action junkie.
#4 San Diego State vs. #1 Arizona.
This has not been a kind tournament to defensive minded teams who are limited offensively - Kansas State, Ohio State, Cincinnati, and St. Louis are all gone. San Diego State fits that mold as well with one difference - Xavier Thames. You could try to make a similar argument in favor of Cincy and Sean Kilpatrick, but where it always seems like Kilpatrick has to struggle to score, Thames seems to do it much more effortlessly. I know that kind of sounds stupid since Kilpatrick averaged over 20 points per game this year, but I managed to watch a lot of Cincy and see SDSU a few times and it's just an impression I got, I can't really back it up. Just trust me I'm much smarter than you.
Yes, the Wildcats have the #1 point-per-possession defense in the field, and it's because they force opponents to take jump shots and pack the paint to take away almost anything driving to the rim. Well, Thames doesn't drive - he's taken only 17% of his shots this year at the rim but hits 40% on both two point and three point jumpers. Arizona is basically going to be daring an excellent jump shooter to shoot jump shots. I don't think that will be enough for the Aztecs to pull off an upset, but with that dynamic and a really, really good defense I expect this to be close. I know Arizona beat SDSU by 9 in San Diego earlier this year, but Arizona had Brandon Ashley in that game and SDSU didn't have Dwayne Polee so I'm on SDSU getting seven for two units. I also expect a real grind it out game, but the 122 is too low a number for me since it's a tournament game I figure to be close which could result in a lot of fouls, especially since my perception is in an elimination game losing teams continue to foul longer than they normally would. Instead I'm throwing two units on the first half line, under 55.5.
#11 Dayton vs. #10 Stanford.
There are many great looking games that will be played this weekend, and this game will also be played. There isn't a lot of shine to it because even though both teams are underdogs neither team is very sexy. Stanford is nerds and Dayton is Dayton. Although Dayton looks like the more athletic team with guys like Sibert, Sanford, and Pierre who can kind of do a little of everything, Stanford has not just size but skilled size in Dwight Powell and Stefan Nastic, as well as Josh Huestis who seems to play big.
It should be a close game, but unfortunately for lose who were hoping to experience a little schadenfreude at the expense of Reid Travis with Johnny Dawkins flaming out and getting fired (which clearly isn't happening now), I think he gets another big win. I'm on Stanford here laying the three.
#6 Baylor vs. #2 Wisconsin.
I know Scott Drew is a horrible coach. I know it all the way to the bottom of my tiny black heart, but I'm not so sure Bo Ryan is that much better, at least this year and Baylor is absolutely clicking at the right time. More than that, how the hell is Wisconsin going to deal with Baylor's size and athleticism? Cory Jefferson is what Nigel Hayes hopes to be in four years and he's having a great run to end his career. Isaiah Austin seems to finally be getting it, Rico Gathers is a rebounding machine, and the wings are Royce O'Neale and Taurean Prince who are 6-6 and 6-7. Frank Kaminsky might actually get killed. You realize Duje Dukan will likely have to be prominently involved here?
Wisconsin's only chance is if Scott Drew plays a zone, which is actually Baylor's preferred, and they get hot. Drew is dumb enough to do it, but even if he does their size might bother Wisconsin enough so it actually works. This is still my biggest bet of the weekend at five units to cover three and a half and another unit on the moneyline. Also taking the under 137 for a unit, as I think Wisconsin is going to play slower and hope Baylor is dumb enough to not be able to guard. Also possible.
#4 UCLA vs. #1 Florida.
Florida was my pick to win a couple months ago and still is, and I realize that's not really going out on a limb but I just can't find any weaknesses here. They have the second best defense in the country (on a per possession basis) behind Arizona and a top 20 offense as well. They have senior leadership that seems to count in March and excellent guard play with the SEC player of the year in Scottie Wilbekin. They have five guys who can have a blow up game so if anybody is off (maybe outside Wilbekin if we're talking things beyond shooting) oh well just move on to the next guy.
I like UCLA a lot and Kyle Anderson is one of my favorite players and if Zach LaVine and Norman Powell are clicking those three and Jordan Adams form a damn good four pack, but LaVine has been horrible lately. For UCLA to win you're going to be counting on the Wear twins and Tony Parker to check Florida's group of tight end looking guys who can come at you in waves. No chance. Florida -4.5 for three units. I also think there's a decent chance this goes over the 137 because UCLA likes to run and Florida can run with anybody, but I can also see a repeat of their game against Pitt where the Bruins can't score and the Gators just grind clock. Pass for now, but I'm sure I'll do something with it prior to tip because I'm an action junkie.
#4 San Diego State vs. #1 Arizona.
This has not been a kind tournament to defensive minded teams who are limited offensively - Kansas State, Ohio State, Cincinnati, and St. Louis are all gone. San Diego State fits that mold as well with one difference - Xavier Thames. You could try to make a similar argument in favor of Cincy and Sean Kilpatrick, but where it always seems like Kilpatrick has to struggle to score, Thames seems to do it much more effortlessly. I know that kind of sounds stupid since Kilpatrick averaged over 20 points per game this year, but I managed to watch a lot of Cincy and see SDSU a few times and it's just an impression I got, I can't really back it up. Just trust me I'm much smarter than you.
Yes, the Wildcats have the #1 point-per-possession defense in the field, and it's because they force opponents to take jump shots and pack the paint to take away almost anything driving to the rim. Well, Thames doesn't drive - he's taken only 17% of his shots this year at the rim but hits 40% on both two point and three point jumpers. Arizona is basically going to be daring an excellent jump shooter to shoot jump shots. I don't think that will be enough for the Aztecs to pull off an upset, but with that dynamic and a really, really good defense I expect this to be close. I know Arizona beat SDSU by 9 in San Diego earlier this year, but Arizona had Brandon Ashley in that game and SDSU didn't have Dwayne Polee so I'm on SDSU getting seven for two units. I also expect a real grind it out game, but the 122 is too low a number for me since it's a tournament game I figure to be close which could result in a lot of fouls, especially since my perception is in an elimination game losing teams continue to foul longer than they normally would. Instead I'm throwing two units on the first half line, under 55.5.
Tuesday, March 25, 2014
Gophers 81, Southern Miss 73
Good win, and on to Madison Square Garden. Here are 10 things I liked and didn't like about the Southern Miss game. And it's going to be fast, because I have some sweet 16 stuff I need to ignore my real work for tomorrow.
1. Obviously the A topic here is Austin Hollins's monster game. 32 points. 6-11 from 3. 2-3 from 2. 11-11 from the line. 4 assists and 3 steals with no turnovers to boot. Plus he was as active as I can ever remember seeing him, just running all over the court especially without the ball which is a place he can disengage from a game from time to time. Great going away game from Austin in his final game at the Barn and I'm glad he got to have a huge moment in front of the home crowd after he's been beaten up pretty hard by a certain segment of fans (*cough* gopherhole). A good well rounded player who cares as much about defense as offense is always a nice luxury to have and although I wouldn't call him a Gopher legend (he's no Stan Gaines) he will be sorely missed next season. I'd slot him somewhere below Damian Johnson and above Travarus Bennett. Pretty good spot to be in.
2. The other A topic should be the freaking horrible announcers and actually all around production by ESPN. Good lord are Dan Dakitch and whoever the other guy was terrible. How many times did they get Austin and Andre Hollins confused? And every time the Gophers had the ball all they could talk about was how the Gophers needed to get Austin the ball, even though I'm positive they meant Andre because they had no idea he wasn't 100% because I don't think - no, I know - neither of them has seen a Gopher game this year. Then what happens? The show a graphic to show Austin's great stats and the picture is Andre. Good lord we could have expected this in year 1 with both of them, but it's year 3. I was surprised, however, they never mentioned that they are brothers. Odd.
3. Great job handling pressure......until the last two minutes. The Gophers turned the ball over 10 times which for them I would consider good. But two of the ten came in the last two minutes and it felt like a lot more because the Gophers suddenly seemed all panicky. Southern Miss is a big time turnover creating team, which makes the overall numbers very impressive. I said they'd have to take care of the ball to win and they did. If they had played like this more often, well, we probably wouldn't have any more Gopher ball to watch, but we'd all be a lot happier with the season.
4. Someone in the middle of the zone - unstoppable. Against that matchup zone, and really any zone, is getting someone in the middle of the zone, right about the free throw line, and getting them the ball. Tonight it was usually either Joey King (more on him later) or Elliot Eliason there - when someone was there - and almost every time they got the ball either King hit a jumper or King or Eliason were able to find an open shooter, and the team was actually hitting open shots tonight so everybody was all smiling and stuff. Sadly, far too often nobody bothered to get in the middle, which is like why not? I would love to have some kind of breakdown of points per possession when they got a touch in the middle vs. not. One led to easy shots, the other a ton, and a mean a ton, of contested long jumpers and three pointers. Just some terrible shots tonight. Some great offense too. Schizo team, as usual.
5. The rebounding and defense kind of sucked. A 14-4 edge on the offensive rebounds is not very good, and letting Southern Miss shoot over 50% on twos is not ideal. No reason to harp on this, because it's been a season long theme, luckily tonight their offense was good enough to overcome it. Moving on.
6. This Mavsurgence is not real. Mav has made some headlines after scoring 21 in the first round game against High Point, but that was High Point. Since then he's come back to normal but is at least hitting his shots which is really his only role or should be. Tonight he had a possession where he basically like, kicked the ball away from himself and then fell down. It felt like a metaphor for something, but I'm not sure what.
7. Joey King is good? Seriously, is he? I hated him at first, he slowly won me over, but after scoring 15 points tonight that makes four straight games in double figures, which I'm told is the first time he's done that in his career, I'm wondering if he's actually good. Like, starting Big 10 caliber good? He looked awfully good as the middle guy against the zone, he's started to get better from three without relying on it, he's gone from zero post moves to something like 0.8 post moves, and just, stopped being such a tit. I can't believe I might be a fan. Not what I was expecting.
8. Dre Hollins is still broken. He's shooting like shit, yes at 6-38 in his last four games (not a misprint) but other than a down tick because he can't get to the rim as easily as he used to that's not what I'm talking about. There were two plays tonight that made it crystal clear he doesn't have the burst he did before he hurt his ankle. One was a run out where he had one of those one on two breaks but the two are out of position so you generally take it right at the rim and he tried but was turned back because he was too slow and the other was a trap towards the end of the game that he usually would be able to dribble out of with his quickness but was unable to. It makes this win (and the last one) even more impressive by the Gophers doing it with a best player who is max at 90% of his capability. Hopefully he's all back next year.
9. I am far too excited about Mo Walker next year. I can't get over about how good he's been since his breakout against Ohio State. He's learned to trust his body and can just bull his way into lay-ups, even against good defenders. He's got a semi decent jumper out to about 16 feet, and he can pass the ball very well for a man his size. If he adds 1-2 post moves other than his jump hook and the drop step lower your shoulder he could end up nearly unstoppable. Generally I don't trust college kids to work all that hard because I remember being a college kid, but this is a guy who lost 60 pounds or whatever, I can see him busting his ass to add a dream shake and a fall away or something. So excited. Unreasonably so.
10. Why not win it I guess. The NIT mostly sucks. It's hard to care about, you play mediocre teams who you have no idea whether they're at all interested, and many of the games run up against NCAA games and as such go unwatched. But hell, as long as you're stuck in it you might as well win it, right? And wins over St. Mary's and Southern Miss are nice wins you can build on? I don't know. The Gophers are still playing, and god help me I'm still watching. Let's hope they win two more.
1. Obviously the A topic here is Austin Hollins's monster game. 32 points. 6-11 from 3. 2-3 from 2. 11-11 from the line. 4 assists and 3 steals with no turnovers to boot. Plus he was as active as I can ever remember seeing him, just running all over the court especially without the ball which is a place he can disengage from a game from time to time. Great going away game from Austin in his final game at the Barn and I'm glad he got to have a huge moment in front of the home crowd after he's been beaten up pretty hard by a certain segment of fans (*cough* gopherhole). A good well rounded player who cares as much about defense as offense is always a nice luxury to have and although I wouldn't call him a Gopher legend (he's no Stan Gaines) he will be sorely missed next season. I'd slot him somewhere below Damian Johnson and above Travarus Bennett. Pretty good spot to be in.
2. The other A topic should be the freaking horrible announcers and actually all around production by ESPN. Good lord are Dan Dakitch and whoever the other guy was terrible. How many times did they get Austin and Andre Hollins confused? And every time the Gophers had the ball all they could talk about was how the Gophers needed to get Austin the ball, even though I'm positive they meant Andre because they had no idea he wasn't 100% because I don't think - no, I know - neither of them has seen a Gopher game this year. Then what happens? The show a graphic to show Austin's great stats and the picture is Andre. Good lord we could have expected this in year 1 with both of them, but it's year 3. I was surprised, however, they never mentioned that they are brothers. Odd.
3. Great job handling pressure......until the last two minutes. The Gophers turned the ball over 10 times which for them I would consider good. But two of the ten came in the last two minutes and it felt like a lot more because the Gophers suddenly seemed all panicky. Southern Miss is a big time turnover creating team, which makes the overall numbers very impressive. I said they'd have to take care of the ball to win and they did. If they had played like this more often, well, we probably wouldn't have any more Gopher ball to watch, but we'd all be a lot happier with the season.
4. Someone in the middle of the zone - unstoppable. Against that matchup zone, and really any zone, is getting someone in the middle of the zone, right about the free throw line, and getting them the ball. Tonight it was usually either Joey King (more on him later) or Elliot Eliason there - when someone was there - and almost every time they got the ball either King hit a jumper or King or Eliason were able to find an open shooter, and the team was actually hitting open shots tonight so everybody was all smiling and stuff. Sadly, far too often nobody bothered to get in the middle, which is like why not? I would love to have some kind of breakdown of points per possession when they got a touch in the middle vs. not. One led to easy shots, the other a ton, and a mean a ton, of contested long jumpers and three pointers. Just some terrible shots tonight. Some great offense too. Schizo team, as usual.
5. The rebounding and defense kind of sucked. A 14-4 edge on the offensive rebounds is not very good, and letting Southern Miss shoot over 50% on twos is not ideal. No reason to harp on this, because it's been a season long theme, luckily tonight their offense was good enough to overcome it. Moving on.
6. This Mavsurgence is not real. Mav has made some headlines after scoring 21 in the first round game against High Point, but that was High Point. Since then he's come back to normal but is at least hitting his shots which is really his only role or should be. Tonight he had a possession where he basically like, kicked the ball away from himself and then fell down. It felt like a metaphor for something, but I'm not sure what.
7. Joey King is good? Seriously, is he? I hated him at first, he slowly won me over, but after scoring 15 points tonight that makes four straight games in double figures, which I'm told is the first time he's done that in his career, I'm wondering if he's actually good. Like, starting Big 10 caliber good? He looked awfully good as the middle guy against the zone, he's started to get better from three without relying on it, he's gone from zero post moves to something like 0.8 post moves, and just, stopped being such a tit. I can't believe I might be a fan. Not what I was expecting.
8. Dre Hollins is still broken. He's shooting like shit, yes at 6-38 in his last four games (not a misprint) but other than a down tick because he can't get to the rim as easily as he used to that's not what I'm talking about. There were two plays tonight that made it crystal clear he doesn't have the burst he did before he hurt his ankle. One was a run out where he had one of those one on two breaks but the two are out of position so you generally take it right at the rim and he tried but was turned back because he was too slow and the other was a trap towards the end of the game that he usually would be able to dribble out of with his quickness but was unable to. It makes this win (and the last one) even more impressive by the Gophers doing it with a best player who is max at 90% of his capability. Hopefully he's all back next year.
9. I am far too excited about Mo Walker next year. I can't get over about how good he's been since his breakout against Ohio State. He's learned to trust his body and can just bull his way into lay-ups, even against good defenders. He's got a semi decent jumper out to about 16 feet, and he can pass the ball very well for a man his size. If he adds 1-2 post moves other than his jump hook and the drop step lower your shoulder he could end up nearly unstoppable. Generally I don't trust college kids to work all that hard because I remember being a college kid, but this is a guy who lost 60 pounds or whatever, I can see him busting his ass to add a dream shake and a fall away or something. So excited. Unreasonably so.
10. Why not win it I guess. The NIT mostly sucks. It's hard to care about, you play mediocre teams who you have no idea whether they're at all interested, and many of the games run up against NCAA games and as such go unwatched. But hell, as long as you're stuck in it you might as well win it, right? And wins over St. Mary's and Southern Miss are nice wins you can build on? I don't know. The Gophers are still playing, and god help me I'm still watching. Let's hope they win two more.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
