Big Ten Basketball Preview: #7 Michigan State Spartans

It feels very weird putting the Spartans this low in the conference rankings, but losing Adreian Payne, Gary Harris, and Keith Appling will do that.  Michigan State has suffered heavy and significant defections before, but this time the holdovers and replacements aren't strong enough to bring Sparty back to the top of the conference.  They should still be in the mix for an NCAA bid and will likely get one, it'll just be more of a struggle than years past when it was basically locked up by February, especially since Kenny Kaminski was dismissed from the team, leaving Sparty extremely thin in the bigs department.

Without Kaminski the big men are Branden Dawson, who is awesome, Matt Costello, who isn't, and Gavin Schillling, who is untested at best but being Shane Schilling's brother doesn't bode well for him, and that's it.  Dawsen they don't have to worry about assuming he doesn't break his hand punching a wall again or doing something else stupid.  Usually when a player is thrust into a position to go from supporting player to go-to guy like Dawsen I'd consider it a big question, but Dawsen is totally awesome and should be a monster this year.  It would probably help if he could develop any kind of jump shot, but he'll be just fine and be in the running for conference player of the year.  Beyond him?  It's dicey.

Matt Costello is the leading returnee at 14.7 minutes per game last year, and he was pretty productive in that time averaging 4.0 points and 3.3 rebounds per game while shooting 60% from the field.  He doesn't seem like the type to blossom into a star, but the Big Ten specializes in the whole Big White Stiff to Star transformation - look no further than Frank Kaminsky last year - so nothing would really surprise me.  The other legit option in the front court is Gavin Schilling, younger brother of Shane and Cody   He played sparingly last year, just 238 total minutes.  He gives them size (6-9, 240) and a complete inability to make free throws (11-21 last year) if nothing else.  Other than that the only size is a collection of unknowns, most of which are pretty underwhelming, though freshman Marvin Clark is at least interesting, in a hasn't been disappointing yet way.

As unsettled as the bigs are, the littles are in about as good of shape as they could be after losing both starting guards.  Travis Trice is back and should be able to slide into Appling's role with no issue whatsoever.  He's a better shooter than Appling was, if not quite as good a creator.  Should be an easy transition.  Denzel Valentine is also back on the wing, and he's one of the more underrated all around players in the conference, probably because he's so depressingly ugly.  He averaged 8 points, 6 rebs, nearly 4 assists, and 1 steal per game last year and I'm guessing there wouldn't be more than a handful of players who hit all those marks last season.  Fun Fact:  In our Fantasy Big Ten league he finished third in the league in scoring among returning players behind Frank Kaminsky and Rayvonte Rice, and he should better his numbers with more opportunity this year.  Sparty also adds two interesting freshmen on the perimeter on Lourawls Nairn (traitor) and Javon Bess, and has almost Gopher Alvin Ellis who looked good in a limited role last year, so the perimeter is really not a concern.

Michigan State has as many unanswered questions as anybody in the conference this year, yet I saw one magazine preview had them ranked as high as second in the conference.  That makes no sense to me, and I have pretty close to blind faith in Izzo, but somewhere from 5-8 feels about right.  That should put them in line to pick up a bid with a low single digit seed and then inevitably march to the Elite 8 because Izzo is a complete wizard in March.  Hate him.


OTHER PREVIEWS
#8 IOWA HAWKEYES
#9 MARYLAND TERRAPINS
#10 INDIANA HOOSIERS
#11 PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS
#12 NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS
#13 PURDUE BOILERMAKERS
#14 RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS

Michigan State Aftermath

I've taken some time, calmed down, self-medicated, and I'm ready to discuss the Gopher basketball team again.  Not specifically the Michigan State game because if we start talking about that I will probably murder all the furniture in my house, but in a more general, "this whole year sucked" compared to "last night sucked" sense.  I have so many conflicting emotions about it all - sadness, anger, confusion, anger again, sleepiness, horniness, then depression - that I can't really sort it all out, so let's do it in self-interview fashion.  If it helps your visualization techniques you can picture the questioner as Benicio del Toro and the answerer as me without any pants.


Q.  There are some pretty legitimate reasons why the Gophers suck now, right?

A.  Yes, and that's why it's hard to get too enraged (but make no mistake, I'm still enraged) because it's pretty easy to assign the most blame for this disaster on God/Buddha/Allah/Kali/Tiamat/Merlin, as misguided as that might be.  Of course, it all starts with Al Nolen's injury - or perhaps it starts with Devoe Joseph's defection - but in any case the net results is zero point guards, zero depth, and complete disaster.  Blake playing the point when he's not remotely suited for the role, with the sweet double whammy of putting the teams only perimeter threat in a position where, given his abilities, it's more difficult to get shots and score.  Ralph Sampson playing the three, where no matter how badly he wants to be a perimeter guy, he just doesn't have the skill set.  Is he a good perimeter player for a big man?  Absolutely.  Is a three?  Hell mother flipping no.  And you have three freshmen that should be playing 20-25 between them playing about 20 minutes each.

I mean, you can trace most of their close losses to an inability to play well at the close of games, and so much of that starts with a competent lead guard.  Michigan State had Kalin Lucas last night.  Penn State beat the Gophers because Talor Battle made plays.  Hell, Wisconsin just barely beat Michigan, but they did because they had Jordan Taylor out there making plays (and a little luck) just as he did against Purdue.  The Gophers don't have that.  Instead they have players who travel unguarded on a final possession, players who panic at the first sign of a trap, and an inability to execute half-court plays at the end of the game because the only player good enough to get the ball to a shooter is the shooter himself, and passing to yourself is traveling.  Unfortunately.

This game should have been a battle between two snake-bitten and underachieving teams.  Hell, Tubby Smith and Tom Izzo could have traded war stories like Captain Quint and Hooper on the Orca.  Instead of stories about a big Chinese fella in an arm-wrestling contest and a thresher shark's tail, they could have discussed player defections, suspensions, and injured players.  But instead it was more like Tubby was Chief Brody, just sitting there with stupid smile on his face.  Or that dumb Alex kid who paddles out too far on his gay little raft.

In any case, yes, there are plenty of easy excuses as to why this team has underachieved, should you choose to latch on to them.


Q.  Doesn't it seem like some of these guys should be better though?

A.  And really, here is my biggest issue.  I could excuse a bad season if it wasn't playing out in this particular way.  I mean, was every recruiting service wrong about some of these guys or is the seeming lack of development on far too many players indicative a real problem with the way they're taught?  Some of these guys were major, big-time recruits, but I'm not seeing the development.  I mean, Chief Brody was afraid of water and stayed in the car on the ferry ride over to Amity Island from the mainland in the beginning, but ended up the badass who killed the crap out of the shark - where's that kind of development here?  Was Sampson destined to fall in love with his perimeter game and shrink in big spots whether he was a Gopher or a Terrapin?  Would Colton Iverson be nothing more than a stronger, heavier version of the same gangly, elbow-y, pasty tornado if Billy Donovan was in charge of him instead of Tubby?  What about Rodney Williams lack of development?  He's exactly like last year - flashes of potential sandwiched in between long stretches of invisibility.  Would he be stuck in this holding pattern of mediocrity if he had ended up at Kansas or UCONN?  Obviously I don't have a flux capacitor nor any plutonium so I can't generate 1.21 gigawatts to travel to an alternate universe so I don't know the answer to these questions, but it bugs the shit out of me that we aren't talking one guy, or even two, but we're talking three.  Throw Devoe in if you want.  Like, literally you can throw him into the shark-invested waters off Cable Junction near Amity Island if you want.

Then there's the inability to draw up anything resembling an effective play out of a timeout, something I did mention was harder without a true point guard, but it was an issue back when Nolen was still around and has just gotten worse.  Or the way the freshmen seem to constantly freeze in nearly every high leverage game situation - either freeze or go balls out, either way it's a bad choice.  Or the random substitution patterns and inability to stick to anything resembling a consistent rotation - granted that's suddenly become less of an issue this year.  The mass defections of quality players - even excepting Paul Carter that's still far too many transfers in two years.  How about, due to those transfers, there isn't a viable starting point guard on the roster outside of Nolen, and there isn't one on the roster next year.  Maverick Ahanmisi's upside is a good back-up, and, for all the talk that Andre Hollins is going to be the PG next year, he's 1.  a freshman and 2.  playing SG in high school.  It's got disaster written all over it (not him, but the sitch).

Perhaps my biggest complaint is that I thought we'd be farther, here.  This is year 4, and although the team is in better shape than when he first arrived, you don't really hire Tubby Smith to get your program back to mediocrity - that's why you hire Todd Lickliter.  I guess the best way I can put this is that I was expecting this:  "Y'all know me. Know how I earn a livin'. I'll catch this bird for you, but it ain't gonna be easy. Bad fish. Not like going down the pond chasin' bluegills and tommycods. This shark, swallow you whole. Little shakin', little tenderizin', an' down you go. And we gotta do it quick, that'll bring back your tourists, put all your businesses on a payin' basis. But it's not gonna be pleasant. I value my neck a lot more than three thousand bucks, chief. I'll find him for three, but I'll catch him, and kill him, for ten. But you've gotta make up your minds. If you want to stay alive, then ante up. If you want to play it cheap, be on welfare the whole winter. I don't want no volunteers, I don't want no mates, there's just too many captains on this island. Ten thousand dollars for me by myself. For that you get the head, the tail, the whole damn thing" but instead I think we got the idiots who try to catch the shark using a pot roast with a tire for a bobber.

Q.  How do you foresee the rest of the year/offseason playing out?

A.  It really wouldn't shock me to see them lose the next four games and just call it a season, but I expect them to win two of the next three, win the B10 tournament opener, lose their second, and make a very prestigious appearance in the NIT.  From there who cares.  Then things get interesting.  Who leaves, like Roy Scheider after the sequel, and who sticks around like Lorraine Gary until the disaster that was Jaws 4?

Does Tubby leave?  A frustrating year, an inability to advance the program, and lack of progress towards his precious practice facility could make leaving while his name still has plenty of cachet an attractive option for someone closing in on his last run.  People always question if he'd really want to start over at a new program at his age, but I ask what's worse, that or squandering your last opportunity?  It would surprise me if jumping ship to somewhere that's more of a basketball hotbed and has state-of-the-art facilities and a rabid fanbase (read:  NC State) suddenly looks better to him that what's going here in basketballs Siberia.  Don't forget, he was in play at some level before they hired Sid Lowe, who's about to get canned.

And how about Rodney and Trevor Mbakwe?  There are convincing arguments for either of them to jump ship and go pro.  Rodney could enter the NBA draft and based solely on potential have a shot at being a late first round pick.  He shouldn't, and anybody who takes him should have their head examined, but it's a possibility.  Not to mention the chance that he just decides things aren't working out here.  He's not developing into the NBA player his high-school career suggested he would and I'm guessing he's not blind or myopic enough that he can't see that.  It wouldn't shock me if he decides that he's not ready for the NBA but that Minnesota isn't he place to make that happen.  As far as Mbakwe he's not an NBA player, although he could potentially develop into one with some improvements to his game, but he could make a living playing overseas.  There's got to be a temptation factor there for an "old" senior who has had multiple legal issues and has been in school for too many years.  If he's offered six figures to play pro ball in Australia or Israel, who'd begrudge him for leaving?

The only other transfer risk I really see is Mo Walker.  With his best bud (get it, bud?) and possibly a guy who had a heavy hand in getting him here (although that seems less likely now) gone is he interested in sticking around, especially considering he has essentially a zero percent chance of starting next year?  I think he'll probably stick around, but you never know.

Actually, I think most of them stick around.  I'd say Walker is about 10% to leave, Williams 20%, Mbakwe 25%, and Tubby 50/50%.  I hope they all stay.  I really do, because I'm not ready to give up on Tubby going from the baby shark that ate the license plate to the shark that ate all them people, but I really didn't expect this team to still be sitting where it is.  I really thought they'd be much farther by now.

Q.  So what do you make of the Gophers' chances at this point to earn an NCAA Tournament bid?

A.  Farewell and adieu, to you my Spanish ladies.  Farewell and adieu, you ladies of Spain.  For we've received orders to sail back to Boston, and so nevermore shall we be seeing you again.

Tom Izzo Won't Go Away

It seems Tom Izzo will be staying with the Spartans in what seemed obvious from the beginning but had just enough legs to make me hope he'd leave the conference.  Seriously, who would want to go to Cleveland to coach, even with LeBron?  And without him that team is probably worse than the Timberwolves.  I have a feeling ole Tommy wasn't ever too serious about this, and was just wondering why, after 5 final four appearances in 10 years, he doesn't get the ole ass-kiss treatment from the media dickholes like Coach K and Roy Williams enjoy.  When the Cavs came a-calling and started stroking Tommy a little bit, I think he probably enjoyed it quite a bit, but when it came time to get down to it he realized what a good thing he has going in East Lansing, and he made the right call.  Plus, Cleveland.  Oof.

And that's just the latest in a number of possible Big Ten Basketball weakening moves that would have helped the Gophers that went the wrong way.  If Izzo left, Delvon Roe had said he'd transfer.  Obviously he is now staying.  JaJuan Johnson and E'Twaun Moore put their names into the NBA draft.  Far, far, far worse players with less chance of being drafted have stayed in the draft in the past, but these two made the right decision and backed out.  Talor Battle and Demetri McCamey could have stayed in and maybe gotten picked in the second (plenty of players have stayed in hoping for the second round selection) but both made teh right call and came out.  Two Ohio State players (William Buford and David Lighty) are exactly the type the NBA loves - neither even entered their name for consideration.  Iowa easily could have justified giving Lickliter another year or so, essentially guaranteeing further years of suck.  I mean, McCaffrey will probably suck too, but Lickliter was a guarantee, and I'm not so sure the Hawkeyes aren't better off without those transfers (especially booze-hound Tucker).

So yeah, the conference is going to be an absolute monster this year.  Purdue and Michigan State are National Championship contenders and Ohio State isn't far behind.  Illinois is pretty loaded, and Northwestern is looking feistier than ever.  Wisconsin is always a pain in the ass, and Indiana's excellent class from last year will have another year of experience.  Plus Talor Battle is back and you know he's going to win a couple of games all by himself, you just hope they aren't against the Gophers.

Tubby's got his work cut out for him.



Other random thoughts while watching the Twins game and the NBA game.

-  Wow.  Todd Helton just hit that ball a mile.  I hear all this talk about him being washed up, and I'm not sure I see it.  Guy is a legend.  He should probably be able to set his own ground rules at this point.  I hope Colorado fans appreciate what they have there.  He's just a gritty, gutty gamer who gets it done.

-  Uh oh, looks like Lamar Odom decided to show up tonight.

-   Do you want to know what sucked?  Avatar.  We rented it this weekend on Blu-ray to watch on my fancy new Blu-ray player, and I'll admit the visuals were not overrated.  It was truly some of the most stunning scenery and visual scenes I've ever seen in a movie.  Of course, after an hour of that you start getting sick of watching cartoon/computer graphics, realize this story is going no where, and then cry silently to yourself as you realize you have two hours left.

Really though.  I've heard so much about this movie, I was tricked into thinking it must have a good, or at least coherent, plot.  I didn't count on the fact that if you give most people pretty pictures you don't have to include any kind of fancy "character development", "plot", or "common sense" because your average movie goer is the same kind of slack-jawed yokel who enjoys Olive Garden, Nickelback, Old Country Buffet, High School football, Overalls, Remember the Titans, Garth Brooks, giving their kid a mohawk, David Eckstein, hockey, garage sales, the blue collar comedy tour, church, college football, Teri Hatcher, Marlboro Reds, Everybody Loves Raymond re-runs, brandy, unions, Michael Cuddyer, Wheel of Fortune, State Fairs, the Terminator movies, pick-up trucks, Mama Dawger, Barbecue, Circus Circus, Dean Koontz, wrestling, the Winter Olympics, Josh Hartnett, the Vikings, the sacrifice bunt, naming their kid Tyler, Rob Schneider, showing a little hustle, Disney World, Domino's Pizza, Leann Chinn, and pointing out the difference between Nascar and whatever other kind of car racing there is because when I say "Nascar sucks" I really mean car racing in general and I don't care nor do I need you to explain that open-wheel racing or whatever it's called is better.  No, it's not.  It's still driving a car in a circle.  It's stupid.

Sorry.

Anyway, the plot sucked, I had no reason to care about any of the characters, not even Smurfette, and just when things seem like they're going to make sense and the "good guys" (who are really just blue hippies) are going to get destroyed, perhaps the biggest Deus Ex Machina since The Stand (or Jurassic Park, if you prefer) except this one makes even less sense.  Remember how Snow White could get the birds and the squirrels to do her bidding?  It's like that, but this isn't supposed to be for kids.

And, and I'm sorry here I'm rambling, there's this part where they make this huge deal about the guy from Clash of the Titans who plugs himself into his World of Warcraft machine so he can hump the bloofer lady has to subdue some dragon/bird thing and now there's this unbreakable bond and crap.  Then for the climax, he just goes and gets a different horsedragonbird anyway.  So dumb.

Rent it on Blu-ray, watch it for an hour, and then turn it off.  That's all you need.

-  Fun fact:  Joe Mauer signed a contract for $184 million.  Those numbers add up to 13.  Also adding up to 13?  4-6-3.  Believe it.

-  The basketball game just went to commercial (it's a Laker romp thus far) and they said, "Avatar on Blu Ray!  Own it today!"  Don't you dare, people.  Don't you dare.  If you do it I forbid you from reading this blog.  I would rather watch Slovenia/Serbia on a continuous loop.  I want you to notice how those teams haven't played, but they are two of the biggest slow-it-down defensive teams who would bore you to tears.  Shows I'm paying attention.

-  Shannon Brown can still jump.

-  I'm not convinced that if the Lakers win this Kobe should win MVP over Gasol.

-  Rajon Rondo is 4-16 on free throws in this series.  I don't know if I've ever heard anything quite so ridiculous.

-  US Open winner call:  Hunter Mahan.  Grandslam's rebuttal:  Dustin Johnson.

-  Well this is ugly.

-  Delmon 3-4 tonight.  Delmon rising?  Delmon rising.

-   Tiffani Thiessen gave birth to a baby girl tonight.  No word on if it's mine. (NOTE:  it probably is)

-  Lakers up 27.  I say again:  Lakers up 27.  I see no reason to continue here.  And the announcer just said "tooken" as in "the Celtics haven't tooken many free throws."  I wish I knew who this guy was.  I can't decide if he's awesome or I hate him.  It's like being married.