I feel like I've said this already multiple times this season, but what else is left to say? The Gophers allowed a team that is under .500 on the season to shoot 54% for the game, turned them over just 8 times, and let them score 89 points. You're simply not going to win that way. That's another bad loss, another road loss, and another black mark against the Gophers in the "finish strong" category. I don't think it matters what happens in the Big Ten Tournament they're going to be in the NCAA Tournament, but the seed has slipped so far at this point and the team is just playing so horrendously away from Williams that I'm not sure it matters. That was some of the worst defense I can remember seeing in a long, long time. Purdue seemingly had a Johnson penetrating at all times (hee hee) and the Gophers couldn't stop any of them. Just ridiculous.
The one thing that has kept me somewhat engaged as this season spirals off into oblivion is the possibility that this isn't so much a home thing as it's an away thing. What I mean is, maybe the Gophers aren't materially changed by being at Williams, but that they can't handle an opposing team's gym and crowd and a neutral court will work for them. Remember they played pretty well at the Battle 4 Atlantis, taking down both Memphis and Stanford and not getting completely killed from the tip by Duke. That's my big hope right now, an d it's a big reason why I'd rather see them get an 11 seed than a 7 (anything higher than a 7 is out the window at this point) because then they avoid a 1 or 2 seed and the "protection" situation of playing Kansas in Kansas City or something and having it not be technically a home game since KU is in Lawrence but 90% of the crowd is Jayhawk fans.
Where do they go from here? No clue, man. It's obvious that the same problems keep resurfacing year after year, and that has to be on the coach. An athletic team built to run playing a walk-up style (no fast break points vs. Nebraska). Inability to cover the 3-pointer. Inability to execute in the half court. Complete meltdowns against the zone. Massive swings between home and away. I'm sorry but that's on Tubby Smith. I really think the game may have actually passed him by at this point. He seems unable to either get through to his team, teach his team, adapt to the team he actually has, or some combination. I doubt the meltdowns against zone defense come about because Tubby doesn't attempt to teach the players how to deal with it, but I also doubt that the team can't grasp the concepts because by all accounts at a minimum both Hollinses are heady, cerebral players. Something is lost in the translation and that falls on the coach.
I've been on the fence, mostly because I just wasn't sure what kind of coach the team could get to come in here and how long the rebuilding process would be as well as dismissing Tubby pretty much eliminates any chance you have at getting Vaughn, Jones, or Travis (in my opinion) so I just wasn't sure, but after watching that effort against Purdue I'm officially saying I would prefer they part ways. Tubby helped bring the program back to respectability, but finishing in 9th place in your 6th year with your best team and only having two NCAA appearances and zero wins says "thanks, but we're all done here" to me. I'm not screaming from the rooftops that he needs to go - at least not yet - but I would prefer that they make a move. If the Gophers end up sticking with him for one more year, and one last chance, in order to try to get one of the Big 3 for 2014 I'll be ok with that, but I'm no longer under any illusions as to what this program can be under Tubby Smith.
The real question is who would you hire? The first name on most people's list is Shaka Smart, what with all the VCU connections we have in the athletic department now and obviously that's a dream hire, but would he really leave such a program on the rise that just moved to a better conference? Brad Stevens is another one you'll hear a lot, but I can't imagine why he'd leave Butler considering they're looking like they'll be part of the new Big East next season. The third name that seems to always come up is Flip Saunders, and as intriguing as that is I don't know that I'm in favor of it. I realize that sort of thing is working fine so far at Iowa State with Hoiberg, but I think I'd rather have someone with some college coaching/recruiting experience. I'm not against it, per se, but I'm not as for it as many people seem to be.
For me, it comes down to the following:
1. Gregg Marshall. This is the guy I want. He's built both Winthrop and Wichita State into power programs in their conference (and Winthrop was his first head coaching job which is extra impressive). He's 50, which is a little older than I'd like but he's only been a head coach for 15 years so the fire in the belly should still be there, and a Big 10 school is a definite step up from Wichita.
2. Larry Eustachy. The only retread type I will accept. After the unceremonious divorce from Iowa State he's resurrected both Southern Miss and Colorado State and turned them into NCAA Tournament programs. Has been a winner everywhere he's been, and he hasn't exactly been at power house schools.
3. Jeff Capel/Anthony Grant. Credit to From the Barn for pointing this out, but both Capel and Grant are former VCU coaches who parlayed their success there into head gigs with bigger outfits, to varying success. Capel struggled at Oklahoma and is back to being an assistant at Duke. Grant is at Alabama and is hoping to lead the Crimson Tide to their second straight NCAA Tournament berth, although it's not looking likely. Both would have to look at the Gopher job as a promotion and step up in prestige, and both are young which is what I'd prefer. I'd choose Capel over Grant, but it's close.
4. Chris Mack. Currently at Xavier, which was his first head job, he's just 43 and has had a lot of success. The problem with him is he's from Cincinnati, played college ball at Xavier, and has had two different stints as an assistant at Xavier, so he might already be at his dream job.
5. Someone else. How's that for specific? What I mean is there are a ton of qualified coaches out there, and it's not my job to find them all. I can get on board with anything from somebody who has built a couple of programs already all the way down to a hot shot assistant with zero head coaching experience, as long as someone can explain it to me and sell it. Luckily, the Gophers might have the right person and the right connections in their corner to do this the right way. The one thing I know I don't want is some retread (with one exception) which is basically what they tried with Tubby and it didn't work (well, it kind of worked I guess). Think young.
Of course this is all just idle speculation because Tubby might not be going anywhere. I highly doubt they'd can him if the team manages to win an NCAA Tournament game. Even if they lose their first round Big 10 game and then get killed as a 12 seed in the NCAA Tournament I'd still say it's 50/50 whether they hold on to him for another year or not, likely to hope they snag one of the Big 3 Minnesota recruits and/or reduce the buyout. Norwood Teague and Mike Ellis know coaches - they were there when both Anthony Grant and Shaka Smart were hired. If it's time for Tubby to go, I trust they'll know it, and when it comes to replacing him, I trust them there as well.
Saturday, March 9, 2013
Thursday, March 7, 2013
Friday Tournaments
I was going to write a bit more about the Gophers' loss and preview this weekend's game against Purdue, but I just can't. It's just too much. I bought in again after the Indiana and Penn State games, and was all set to officially pronounce them a lock for the NCAA Tournament after what I figured would be a fairly easy win against Nebraska and they go out and screw me over. Bad lineup, bad substitution patterns, bad shooting, bad defense, bad everything. I just don't know what to say any more. They need one more win, somewhere, before I'll feel safe, and I'll feel safer if that win is at Purdue on Saturday. Can they go 8-10 in conference play and get in without another quality win (which would mean two Big Ten Tournament wins)? I just don't know.
At this point losing both of the next two wouldn't surprise me, and then not hearing their name called Selection Sunday wouldn't shock me either. Forget how many good wins they have and their RPI and SOS - look at the road record and how they're finishing up. It's too much for me to take. Let's just concentrate on all the awesomeness that is March and forget all about Tubby Smith until Monday. I'm going to make an effort to not watch the game, but I'm sure I will find myself doing it anyway. I must really hate myself.
COLONIAL CONFERENCE
Not all that long ago the Colonial was the best mid-major in all the land, what with it's VCUs and George Masons making the Final Four and ranking as either the 12 or 13th best conference every year from 2010-2012. This year VCU is gone to the A-10, GMU is super mediocre, Old Dominion never got off the ground, and other traditional conference powers like Drexel and Hofstra have been pretty bad. Crappy teams like Northeastern and Towson have risen to the top, and the conference overall has floundered falling to 20th. Not exactly a ringing endorsement.
FAVORITE: Northeastern. They have the #1 seed thanks to their 14-4 record, but rank just #172 according to kenpom. I guess that's what you can expect when everybody in a conference is terrible. Yuck, what happened here? Plus the team that would have had the #2 seed, Towson, is ineligible for postseason play because not enough kids graduated or something. I guess the best thing that could happen is for George Mason to win the tournament and then a bunch of people take them to win their first round game which will definitely not happen. Point for me.
SLEEPER: George Mason. Hey look, it's George Mason! They actually fit the sleeper mold pretty well seeing as their the #4 seed but are the highest ranked team according to kenpom. That doesn't make them any good mind you, but this year you don't really have to be good to get out of the CAA.
W's PICK: Delaware. The Blue Hens have the league's leading scorer, a guy who led the league in rebounds and blocks while shooting 54% from the floor, and have gone 10-2 in their last twelve. Good enough for me.
SOUTHERN CONFERENCE
It's a familiar story here where Davidson is head and shoulders above the rest of the league. They struggled a bit post-Curry, missing the NCAA Tournament from 2009-2011, but made it back last year and should find themselves back once again, although they're going to have to do it the hard way and win the SoCon Tournament - this is a one bid league this year, Davidson or other.
FAVORITE: Davidson. Although this version of Davidson isn't on the level of the Stephen Curry teams, it's probably Bob McKillop's best squad since those days. They're not in the at large discussion due to way too many bad losses this year, but they seem to have righted the ship going 17-1 in SoCon play. They're a good, solid, if a little boring mid-major team and there isn't much else in the conference to even challenge them. They'll be interesting if they make it to the NCAAs because they lead the nation with a team 81% free throw percentage and they get to the line a lot. Against the wrong, hacky team that would give them a huge advantage. Kansas State is a very possible, and very favorable, match-up for Davidson. Plus my 2 year old could outcoach Bruce Weber.
SLEEPER: College of Charleston. Even when they aren't a very good team (22-9 isn't terrible or anything, but it's come against a pretty sorry schedule) Charleston always seems to be in the mix somehow. I'd feel better if Bobby Cremins was still there, but of all Davidson's home conference foes only Charleston was able to keep the final margin within double digits. Good enough for me.
W's PICK: Davidson. They're just so much better than everybody else in this conference. It would be a pretty major upset if the Wildcats don't make the NCAA Tournament.
SUN BELT CONFERENCE
This is one I'll be watching closely, because there's a team here (Middle Tennessee - yes, the team the Gophers beat in the NIT quarters last year) who has taken care of business all year, but simply has had a horrific schedule - partly terrible conference and partly poor OOC scheduling - and so there resume doesn't really stack up with most other bubble teams, but I hope they can win out in the Sun Belt tourney and go to the dance. For once, this hope is simply because I think they should be rewarded and not because I don't want to worry about another bubble team stealing a bid when they could help everyone relax and get an automatic. Feels good.
FAVORITE: Middle Tennessee. That 27-4 overall record and 19-1 in conference play is impressive, even if the Sun Belt is down a bit this year. It's even more impressive when you consider the Blue Raiders closed out with 16 straight wins and their lone conference loss came on the road and in overtime. Although the non-conference schedule lacks any kind of big signature win, they did beat Ole Miss, Vanderbilt, and Central Florida this year so they have at least knocked off some names if nothing. Funny, that overtime loss at Akron early in the year might be the difference between an at-large berth and heading back to the NIT.
SLEEPER: Louisiana-Lafayette. The Ragin' Cajuns aren't a very good team by any stretch of the imagination, but they dominate the Sun Belt statistical leaders list with two guys in the top five in scoring along with the #2 rebounder and the top assist man, top steals guy, and a top fiver in blocked shots. Sure, all these spots on the leaderboard are really just two guys and they benefit from a team that plays at one of the fastest paces in the country, but hey........Cajuns!
W's PICK: Troy. They're terrible, but because I really want Middle Tennessee to win this tournament and make it that practically guarantees they lose, and fully expect their spot to be taken by not only a terrible team, but a terrible team who plays at one of the slowest paces in the country. Like a more boring Wisconsin. Yes, that's a real thing.
MID-ATLANTIC ATHLETIC CONFERENCE
There was a time, when we were truly degenerate gamblers, when Bogart and I could have told you anything you wanted to know about the MAAC (or the Ivy) since those were the only two conferences that played on Friday nights and we bet nearly every one of their games. Manhattan was a juggernaut behind Luis Flores. Niagara, Siena, and Fairfield were solid teams. Loyola-MD and Canisius were terrible, and St. Peter's was always a wild card because they were pretty bad but had Keydren Clark so you never knew what they were gonna do. Although we've lost touch with our beloved MAAC (we are still degenerate gamblers, don't worry) it's grown up without us because the overall league is much better than it used it be. It's also much more boring because there isn't a dominant team this year.
FAVORITE: Niagara. The Purple Eagles not only have a sweet name that sounds like it was thought up by a four year old, they're also one of the best in the country at not turning the ball over (20th in the country). That's important because when you can't shoot, and Niagara can't, it's important to maximize your possessions. A point in Niagara's favor, however, is that they balance out their poor shooting by playing horrendous defense.
SLEEPER: Rider. Niagara won the league, but were swept by the Broncs (no, not Broncos - just Broncs). They also have a pretty good player in Jonathon Thompson, who I assume is related to Jason Thompson who I am guessing is the only NBAer from Rider and was pretty much unstoppable on March Madness for playstation2 back in the day. Yes, I played a franchise as Rider. I told you I was obsessed with the MAAC.
W's PICK: Iona. Another league where there's a whole handful of teams who could legitimately win this thing. I'm going with the Gaels because they have the best offense in the league and sport the league's best player (or at least best scorer) in Lamont Jones, formerly of Arizona. I can see a New York senior (from Harlem) putting the gas down and bringing his New York school to the NCAA Tournament as his last hurrah. Kind of like Trey Ziegler staying home to play for Dad at Central Michigan and then that team sucking so badly for two years his dad got fired, only the opposite.
SUMMIT LEAGUE
This league was supposed to be a battle of North and South Dakota State, just like when they fought in the Civil War, and although it certainly was, Western Illinois jumped up, using an 8-1 conference start en route to a 13-3 conference record, including a sweep over NDSU, and the #2 seed.
FAVORITE: South Dakota State. The Jackrabbits got the #1 seed, are the league's #1 rated offense, swept Western Illinois, and have the league's best player in Nate Wolters who might be the easiest pick for conference player of the year than any other player in any other conference. They're pretty horrendous defensively but have made up for it by making a ton of three-pointers - two things that just scream "this team is ripe for an upset in March".
SLEEPER: Oakland. The Golden Grizzlies are the only team in the Summit to have taken a bite (lol) out of all three top seeds, splitting with each team. They're a horrendous defensive team, but the offense obviously can be good enough to pick them up and upset anybody in the league on any given night. Can they do this for three games? No.
W's PICK: North Dakota State. The Bison have been without leading scorer Taylor Braun since mid-January due to injury, but he's back now and it doesn't look like he's missed a beat (22 pts last game). When NDSU had Braun they started 6-0 in conference including a win over SDSU, but went just 5-4 when he was out and even without him for that stretch kenpom's still rates NDSU as the best team in the Summit by a wide margin.
In last night's bubble-related news, Virginia and Kentucky both lost road games to bad teams which will slide them under the Gophers, almost no matter what. At this point even if the Gophers lose the next two and UVA and Kentucky don't go on a big conference tournament run they won't catch the Gophers. Sad that we need to actually care about that kind of thing again this year, but here we are.
Best news of the night (for a College BB fan)? Colorado crushed Oregon to ensure they're in (Oregon is probably in too). I like this Buffaloes team and they got screwed out of a win at Arizona earlier so I'm happy to see them in. Worst news? Louisiana Tech got crushed by New Mexico State for their first WAC loss, which drops them to 26-4 and 16-1 and sadly based on everything else that's probably enough to kill their at-large hopes. That's why you have to play, you know, somebody at some point.
So that'll do it folks. Have a good weekend and I hope all your dream come true. Somebody text me after the Gopher game and let me know what happens because I'm sure as shit not going to watch it.*
* = of course I am.
At this point losing both of the next two wouldn't surprise me, and then not hearing their name called Selection Sunday wouldn't shock me either. Forget how many good wins they have and their RPI and SOS - look at the road record and how they're finishing up. It's too much for me to take. Let's just concentrate on all the awesomeness that is March and forget all about Tubby Smith until Monday. I'm going to make an effort to not watch the game, but I'm sure I will find myself doing it anyway. I must really hate myself.
COLONIAL CONFERENCE
Not all that long ago the Colonial was the best mid-major in all the land, what with it's VCUs and George Masons making the Final Four and ranking as either the 12 or 13th best conference every year from 2010-2012. This year VCU is gone to the A-10, GMU is super mediocre, Old Dominion never got off the ground, and other traditional conference powers like Drexel and Hofstra have been pretty bad. Crappy teams like Northeastern and Towson have risen to the top, and the conference overall has floundered falling to 20th. Not exactly a ringing endorsement.
FAVORITE: Northeastern. They have the #1 seed thanks to their 14-4 record, but rank just #172 according to kenpom. I guess that's what you can expect when everybody in a conference is terrible. Yuck, what happened here? Plus the team that would have had the #2 seed, Towson, is ineligible for postseason play because not enough kids graduated or something. I guess the best thing that could happen is for George Mason to win the tournament and then a bunch of people take them to win their first round game which will definitely not happen. Point for me.
SLEEPER: George Mason. Hey look, it's George Mason! They actually fit the sleeper mold pretty well seeing as their the #4 seed but are the highest ranked team according to kenpom. That doesn't make them any good mind you, but this year you don't really have to be good to get out of the CAA.
W's PICK: Delaware. The Blue Hens have the league's leading scorer, a guy who led the league in rebounds and blocks while shooting 54% from the floor, and have gone 10-2 in their last twelve. Good enough for me.
SOUTHERN CONFERENCE
It's a familiar story here where Davidson is head and shoulders above the rest of the league. They struggled a bit post-Curry, missing the NCAA Tournament from 2009-2011, but made it back last year and should find themselves back once again, although they're going to have to do it the hard way and win the SoCon Tournament - this is a one bid league this year, Davidson or other.
FAVORITE: Davidson. Although this version of Davidson isn't on the level of the Stephen Curry teams, it's probably Bob McKillop's best squad since those days. They're not in the at large discussion due to way too many bad losses this year, but they seem to have righted the ship going 17-1 in SoCon play. They're a good, solid, if a little boring mid-major team and there isn't much else in the conference to even challenge them. They'll be interesting if they make it to the NCAAs because they lead the nation with a team 81% free throw percentage and they get to the line a lot. Against the wrong, hacky team that would give them a huge advantage. Kansas State is a very possible, and very favorable, match-up for Davidson. Plus my 2 year old could outcoach Bruce Weber.
SLEEPER: College of Charleston. Even when they aren't a very good team (22-9 isn't terrible or anything, but it's come against a pretty sorry schedule) Charleston always seems to be in the mix somehow. I'd feel better if Bobby Cremins was still there, but of all Davidson's home conference foes only Charleston was able to keep the final margin within double digits. Good enough for me.
W's PICK: Davidson. They're just so much better than everybody else in this conference. It would be a pretty major upset if the Wildcats don't make the NCAA Tournament.
SUN BELT CONFERENCE
This is one I'll be watching closely, because there's a team here (Middle Tennessee - yes, the team the Gophers beat in the NIT quarters last year) who has taken care of business all year, but simply has had a horrific schedule - partly terrible conference and partly poor OOC scheduling - and so there resume doesn't really stack up with most other bubble teams, but I hope they can win out in the Sun Belt tourney and go to the dance. For once, this hope is simply because I think they should be rewarded and not because I don't want to worry about another bubble team stealing a bid when they could help everyone relax and get an automatic. Feels good.
FAVORITE: Middle Tennessee. That 27-4 overall record and 19-1 in conference play is impressive, even if the Sun Belt is down a bit this year. It's even more impressive when you consider the Blue Raiders closed out with 16 straight wins and their lone conference loss came on the road and in overtime. Although the non-conference schedule lacks any kind of big signature win, they did beat Ole Miss, Vanderbilt, and Central Florida this year so they have at least knocked off some names if nothing. Funny, that overtime loss at Akron early in the year might be the difference between an at-large berth and heading back to the NIT.
SLEEPER: Louisiana-Lafayette. The Ragin' Cajuns aren't a very good team by any stretch of the imagination, but they dominate the Sun Belt statistical leaders list with two guys in the top five in scoring along with the #2 rebounder and the top assist man, top steals guy, and a top fiver in blocked shots. Sure, all these spots on the leaderboard are really just two guys and they benefit from a team that plays at one of the fastest paces in the country, but hey........Cajuns!
W's PICK: Troy. They're terrible, but because I really want Middle Tennessee to win this tournament and make it that practically guarantees they lose, and fully expect their spot to be taken by not only a terrible team, but a terrible team who plays at one of the slowest paces in the country. Like a more boring Wisconsin. Yes, that's a real thing.
MID-ATLANTIC ATHLETIC CONFERENCE
There was a time, when we were truly degenerate gamblers, when Bogart and I could have told you anything you wanted to know about the MAAC (or the Ivy) since those were the only two conferences that played on Friday nights and we bet nearly every one of their games. Manhattan was a juggernaut behind Luis Flores. Niagara, Siena, and Fairfield were solid teams. Loyola-MD and Canisius were terrible, and St. Peter's was always a wild card because they were pretty bad but had Keydren Clark so you never knew what they were gonna do. Although we've lost touch with our beloved MAAC (we are still degenerate gamblers, don't worry) it's grown up without us because the overall league is much better than it used it be. It's also much more boring because there isn't a dominant team this year.
FAVORITE: Niagara. The Purple Eagles not only have a sweet name that sounds like it was thought up by a four year old, they're also one of the best in the country at not turning the ball over (20th in the country). That's important because when you can't shoot, and Niagara can't, it's important to maximize your possessions. A point in Niagara's favor, however, is that they balance out their poor shooting by playing horrendous defense.
SLEEPER: Rider. Niagara won the league, but were swept by the Broncs (no, not Broncos - just Broncs). They also have a pretty good player in Jonathon Thompson, who I assume is related to Jason Thompson who I am guessing is the only NBAer from Rider and was pretty much unstoppable on March Madness for playstation2 back in the day. Yes, I played a franchise as Rider. I told you I was obsessed with the MAAC.
W's PICK: Iona. Another league where there's a whole handful of teams who could legitimately win this thing. I'm going with the Gaels because they have the best offense in the league and sport the league's best player (or at least best scorer) in Lamont Jones, formerly of Arizona. I can see a New York senior (from Harlem) putting the gas down and bringing his New York school to the NCAA Tournament as his last hurrah. Kind of like Trey Ziegler staying home to play for Dad at Central Michigan and then that team sucking so badly for two years his dad got fired, only the opposite.
SUMMIT LEAGUE
This league was supposed to be a battle of North and South Dakota State, just like when they fought in the Civil War, and although it certainly was, Western Illinois jumped up, using an 8-1 conference start en route to a 13-3 conference record, including a sweep over NDSU, and the #2 seed.
FAVORITE: South Dakota State. The Jackrabbits got the #1 seed, are the league's #1 rated offense, swept Western Illinois, and have the league's best player in Nate Wolters who might be the easiest pick for conference player of the year than any other player in any other conference. They're pretty horrendous defensively but have made up for it by making a ton of three-pointers - two things that just scream "this team is ripe for an upset in March".
SLEEPER: Oakland. The Golden Grizzlies are the only team in the Summit to have taken a bite (lol) out of all three top seeds, splitting with each team. They're a horrendous defensive team, but the offense obviously can be good enough to pick them up and upset anybody in the league on any given night. Can they do this for three games? No.
W's PICK: North Dakota State. The Bison have been without leading scorer Taylor Braun since mid-January due to injury, but he's back now and it doesn't look like he's missed a beat (22 pts last game). When NDSU had Braun they started 6-0 in conference including a win over SDSU, but went just 5-4 when he was out and even without him for that stretch kenpom's still rates NDSU as the best team in the Summit by a wide margin.
In last night's bubble-related news, Virginia and Kentucky both lost road games to bad teams which will slide them under the Gophers, almost no matter what. At this point even if the Gophers lose the next two and UVA and Kentucky don't go on a big conference tournament run they won't catch the Gophers. Sad that we need to actually care about that kind of thing again this year, but here we are.
Best news of the night (for a College BB fan)? Colorado crushed Oregon to ensure they're in (Oregon is probably in too). I like this Buffaloes team and they got screwed out of a win at Arizona earlier so I'm happy to see them in. Worst news? Louisiana Tech got crushed by New Mexico State for their first WAC loss, which drops them to 26-4 and 16-1 and sadly based on everything else that's probably enough to kill their at-large hopes. That's why you have to play, you know, somebody at some point.
So that'll do it folks. Have a good weekend and I hope all your dream come true. Somebody text me after the Gopher game and let me know what happens because I'm sure as shit not going to watch it.*
* = of course I am.
Wednesday, March 6, 2013
Sick of the Gophers
First of all, just let me say I have no idea what was going on with Tubby's substitution patterns tonight. I also don't know what is going on with the Hollinses, but they were inexplicably terrible tonight. This game was everything we saw against Northwestern, Iowa, Nebraska, and Illinois all over again and reminded me of how frustratingly bad this team can be. They're probably still in the NCAA Tournament but at this point barring a huge Big 10 Tournament run they'll be somewhere in the 7-10 range which means even if they somehow won their first round game they'll just get smoked in round 2. Just. I don't know. I should write more but I'm sick and after watching that game I really don't feel like it. So here's what I wrote before the game, previews and stuff.
MISSOURI VALLEY CONFERENCE
Oddly this is the only tournament kicking off Thursday, particularly since I remember Thursday always used to be the biggest day of the week. It seems a lot of the conferences have switched to Friday or Saturday starts (particularly the SoCon and the Colonial) in order to maximize their attendance and revenue which makes total sense for them but sucks for me so I hate it. Anyway, there's no real intrigue here because Wichita and Creighton are probably both in even if they get dropped in the first round, and nobody else has a chance at an at-large (Indiana State was borderline for a while, but dropped 5 of 6 to close out the season). Even so there should be some good basketball in this one.
FAVORITE: Creighton. At the beginning of the year Creighton was the big swinging dick of the MVC, then they hit a bit of a rough patch and all of a sudden Wichita was the bee knees, then the Blue Jays gave the Shockers a nice beatdown to not only reassert dominance, but also to grab the #1 seed in the tourney. By the way I still haven't figured out how good Doug McDermott really is and I have no idea what I'm going to do with Creighton when the brackets come out - which I guess is the same as every other team because I'm kind of an idiot.
SLEEPER: Illinois State. The Redbirds were supposed to be a MVC sleeper this year, and appeared to be good enough to make my top 68 teams preview at #52, but they struggled a smidge in conference play, dropping their first six MVC games. They finished out at 8-4 and with Jackie Carmichael have the guy who'd be a shoo-in for conference player-of-the-year if Doug McDermott didn't exist, and he's not even the leading scorer on his own team.
W's PICK: Northern Iowa. The MVC is loaded this year (9th best conference) and with the top two squads already assured of NCAA bids you can be the rest of the teams will be in crazy survival mode and that's when weird things happen. So why not take the team with the experienced coach (Ben Jacobson) and senior leadership (3 senior starters) who finished hot (won 7 of their final 8 conference games which included wins over Wichita, Creighton, and Illinois State)? Plus weird shit like this always seems to happen to annoying teams like Northern Iowa.
In meaningful games for Thursday night, we have Kentucky (@ Georgia) and Virginia (@ Florida State) both face pretty much must win road games to keep their bid chances alive, while Butler is on the road as well at UMass and even though they seem pretty solidly in at this point they'd be much better off not losing and giving the committee a reason to reconsider. The best game of the night (bubble wise) is Oregon @ Colorado in the Pac-12. Both are in solid shape, but the winner of this one pretty much punches their ticket, while the other will need to pick up another win elsewhere. Of course the real best game of the night is Wisconsin @ Michigan State, which will matter for seedings and all that jazz and should be entertaining as long as Wisconsin doesn't control pace and gets killed. Pretty slow for a Thursday, but there are games all day starting at 11am with the last one tipping off at 10:30pm, so who am I to complain? I love March.
MISSOURI VALLEY CONFERENCE
Oddly this is the only tournament kicking off Thursday, particularly since I remember Thursday always used to be the biggest day of the week. It seems a lot of the conferences have switched to Friday or Saturday starts (particularly the SoCon and the Colonial) in order to maximize their attendance and revenue which makes total sense for them but sucks for me so I hate it. Anyway, there's no real intrigue here because Wichita and Creighton are probably both in even if they get dropped in the first round, and nobody else has a chance at an at-large (Indiana State was borderline for a while, but dropped 5 of 6 to close out the season). Even so there should be some good basketball in this one.
FAVORITE: Creighton. At the beginning of the year Creighton was the big swinging dick of the MVC, then they hit a bit of a rough patch and all of a sudden Wichita was the bee knees, then the Blue Jays gave the Shockers a nice beatdown to not only reassert dominance, but also to grab the #1 seed in the tourney. By the way I still haven't figured out how good Doug McDermott really is and I have no idea what I'm going to do with Creighton when the brackets come out - which I guess is the same as every other team because I'm kind of an idiot.
SLEEPER: Illinois State. The Redbirds were supposed to be a MVC sleeper this year, and appeared to be good enough to make my top 68 teams preview at #52, but they struggled a smidge in conference play, dropping their first six MVC games. They finished out at 8-4 and with Jackie Carmichael have the guy who'd be a shoo-in for conference player-of-the-year if Doug McDermott didn't exist, and he's not even the leading scorer on his own team.
W's PICK: Northern Iowa. The MVC is loaded this year (9th best conference) and with the top two squads already assured of NCAA bids you can be the rest of the teams will be in crazy survival mode and that's when weird things happen. So why not take the team with the experienced coach (Ben Jacobson) and senior leadership (3 senior starters) who finished hot (won 7 of their final 8 conference games which included wins over Wichita, Creighton, and Illinois State)? Plus weird shit like this always seems to happen to annoying teams like Northern Iowa.
In meaningful games for Thursday night, we have Kentucky (@ Georgia) and Virginia (@ Florida State) both face pretty much must win road games to keep their bid chances alive, while Butler is on the road as well at UMass and even though they seem pretty solidly in at this point they'd be much better off not losing and giving the committee a reason to reconsider. The best game of the night (bubble wise) is Oregon @ Colorado in the Pac-12. Both are in solid shape, but the winner of this one pretty much punches their ticket, while the other will need to pick up another win elsewhere. Of course the real best game of the night is Wisconsin @ Michigan State, which will matter for seedings and all that jazz and should be entertaining as long as Wisconsin doesn't control pace and gets killed. Pretty slow for a Thursday, but there are games all day starting at 11am with the last one tipping off at 10:30pm, so who am I to complain? I love March.
Tuesday, March 5, 2013
Gophers vs. Huskers Preview + Wednesday Tournaments
The Gophers play Nebraska in Lincoln, and although some of the pressure has been alleviated by the wins over Indiana and Penn State, which locked the Gophers into the NCAA Tournament, they can still close strong and get maybe as high as a 3 seed, or crash and end up around a 10. My hope is they get to a six to avoid the 1-2 seed in the second round if they advance, and I think two more wins would do it - whether the last two regular season games or one of them and a B10 tournament win - so this is still a pretty important game.
Since the last time the Gophers played Nebraska the Huskers have gone 2-5 with the two wins home games vs. Iowa and Penn State. In that time they've also played Ohio State and Michigan State at home, losing both by less than ten (7 and 9) so they're not exactly a juggernaut, but road games in the Big 10 are never easy even if Nebraska doesn't really have any impressive home upsets to point to.
Overall Nebraska is a pretty terrible team. They don't do anything particularly well other than take care of the basketball, are thoroughly mediocre on defense, and area terrible shooting team. You remember when the Gophers smoked them at Williams, right? The talent disparity between the two teams is glaring, and the only thing that kept Nebraska at all in the game (and the Gophers won by 19) was Ray Gallegos going coo-coo from three and scoring 30 points. Could that happen again but like, way more dramatic? I suppose, but Gallegos has only scored more than 11 points once in the seven games since then, everyone else on Nebraska sucks, and the Gophers look like they've finally figured things out again. If you're going to have a lull like the Gophers did, have it in the middle of the season, not the end. I choose to believe they're back.
Minnesota 70, Nebraska 53
Now on to Wednesday's tournaments.
ATLANTIC SUN
Another pretty terrible conference like the Big South, but the one thing the A-Sun has going for it is two dominant teams in Mercer and Florida Gulf Coast who are both in the top two in the conference in both offensive and defensive efficiency. When you're dealing with a low major you can forget about having a balanced, deep league and you just have to hope you have a squad or two that is good enough to grab some name recognition by beating, or at least scaring, its first round NCAA foe. Both these teams have a least a chance.
FAVORITE: Mercer. The Bears take the one seed by a game over FGC, but I'm not sure they're the better team. The Bears have a nice non-conference win over Florida State, but FGC beat Miami. Both come in hot with Mercer finishing out at 9-1 and the Eagles at 9-2, and the Eagles won their last meeting last week by 3. This is one of those conference tournaments where if the favorites win out and Mercer meets FGC in the Final it will be worth your time to watch. Probably.
SLEEPER: North Florida. Well, probably not, but they do have Will Wilson, who you may remember as the point guard who never ever ever scores. You will be happy to know that Wilson, who played 31.5 minutes per game this year, upped his scoring average to 3.6 per game, a career high, while upping his assists to 6.1 per game. His total points this season were 112, nearly doubling his career point total which stood at 121 coming into the year. And he did, in fact, finally break double figures in a game this year notching 13 against Jacksonville so congratulations. Will Wilson, we salute you.
W's PICK: Florida Gulf Coast. The Eagles are just more tested, having played four tournament teams this year (Miami, Duke, Iowa State, VCU) while Mercer has just New Mexico. Granted that all happened a long time ago and is pretty much irrelevant, but like I said, it's awfully tough to separate these teams.
PATRIOT LEAGUE
I know you're thinking whoopity-doo another terrible conference and you're right, but you're also sort of wrong too. This might be the best version of the Patriot League I can recall (although they're still ranked as just the 17th best conference by kenpom). Bucknell and Lehigh are top 100 teams with two others in the 100s and only Navy falling past #300. Might not sound like much, but it's a step in the right direction and you can see the difference finally allowing athletic scholarships can make.
FAVORITE: Bucknell. Unfortunately C.J. McCollum broke his foot in a game against VCU this winter (a game Lehigh lost by only four) so the Bison won the league crown and the #1 seed. That's not a slam on Bucknell, who are a very good team with wins over Purdue and LaSalle this season, it's just a bummer because most of the Lehigh team that beat Duke was back this year and McCollum is an amazing player. Even so, Bucknell's Mike Muscala is a stud as well who averaged a double-double while leading the conference in scoring and rebounding, and if the Bison get through they're absolutely a threat to steal a win in the tournament.
SLEEPER: Army. The Black Knights play at a pace considerably fast than anyone else in the Patriot and do so while shooting, and making, a ton of three pointers. That's the kind of team I like for a sleeper.
W's PICK: Bucknell. If McCollum returns from injury (even as of 3 days ago, the most recent article I could find, things are still up in the air) things get more interesting, but if he doesn't I expect Bucknell to run the table pretty easily.
OHIO VALLEY
Belmont moving in to the OVC was supposed to create a two-headed monster at the top of the conference with the Bruins and Murray State. The only problem was the Racers didn't hold up their end of the bargain, whiffing on their only real out of conference chance to get a big win against Colorado (and what a horrible schedule they put together) and going just 10-6 in conference. Belmont still has an outside chance at an at-large given good computer numbers and a 14-2 conference record but it's an outside shot at best and the OVC will most likely remain a one-bid league.
FAVORITE: Belmont. These guys have been relevant long enough that I can even tell you their two best players without looking it up - Ian Clark and Kerron Johnson - a pair of senior guards who have been this team's leaders forever. Their are three other upperclassmen starters as well and those five play the majority of the team's minutes and basically score all their points. They've been in the last two NCAA Tournaments but haven't broken through for a win yet. With that experience now could this be the year.
SLEEPER: Eastern Kentucky. Given Murray State's rough year and not even ranking in kenpom's Top 25 they might be a more appropriate sleeper than EKU - the team that finished with the second best record in the league and only team in the top 2 in both O and D efficiency in the OVC - but I'm pretty sure Murray is still the sexier pick since the media has bludgeoned us all over the head with them for years. The Colonels create a ton of turnovers but don't defend all that well, which is generally death to teams who play the Bruins. Still, they've probably got the best shot to knock them off.
W's PICK: Belmont. I feel like I'm picking a lot of favorites, but that's kind of how it works in these conferences. Also, to answer my earlier rhetorical question, no it's not the year. Belmont won't win an NCAA Tournament game again.
WEST COAST CONFERENCE
A pretty uninteresting conference tournament but in an interesting way. There are two possible NCAA teams here: Gonzaga (locked in, possible #1 seed) and St. Mary's (right on the bubble). What St. Mary's could really use is another quality win, but the only way to get one at this point in the WCC is to beat Gonzaga. However, because of their seeds, beating Gonzaga is only possible in the WCC Tournament Final, which would put the Gaels in automatically. So either St. Mary's wins their way in, or they've already done enough to get the invite. Uninteresting in an interesting way, which is what I said if you had been paying attention.
FAVORITE: Gonzaga. Although the WCC is far better than a lot of other conferences I have or will be previewing (ranking 10th) there might not be a more prohibitive favorite in any conference than Gonzaga. The Zags are in line for a possible #1 seed, are 16-0 in conference play, and rank as the #4 team in the country according to kenpom. Sure, St. Mary's (rank #19), BYU (#71), and Santa Clara (#87) are quality teams with their eyes on the upset, but Gonzaga has crushed all three of these teams this year.
SLEEPER: San Francisco. It's not easy to pick a sleeper here when the top four just beat up on each other and killed everyone else (between the four good teams only three of their losses came to other teams) so I'll go with the team that picked up one of those (over BYU) and has an interesting statistical profile. The Dons, who are coached by Rex Walters which feels relevant for some reason, hit 40.2% of their three pointers this year, good for 9th best in the nation. So that's something. Although the way the WCC sets things up it's almost guaranteed to be either Gonzaga or St. Mary's coming out of here.
W's PICK: St. Mary's. This isn't an indictment of Gonzaga, because I do think they're a Final Four contender who deserves a one seed, but St. Mary's is going to be playing as if their lives depend on it in this game - and their tournament lives very well might. I think they're flying under the radar a bit, especially since Gonzaga swept them, and I don't want to have to stop watching Matthew Dellavedova yet. If loving that floppy haired little muppet is wrong I don't want to be right.
NORTHEASTERN CONFERENCE
You want to talk about a conference only a mother could love, let's go with the NEC. They're consistently ranked in the bottom quartile for conference strength, and if you look at the list of teams I don't know that they've ever even been close in an NCAA Tournament game, much less won one. There are a handful of other conferences who can never rise out of the bottom of the barrel as a whole, but outside of the SWAC I can recall each one of those conferences at least being competitive with many of them actually winning games here and there. Not so the NEC. Where have you gone, Charles Jones?
FAVORITE: Robert Morris. The closest thing the NEC puts out as a power program, the Colonials have missed the NCAA Tournament each of the last two seasons despite winning at least 12 conference games each year and advancing to the NEC Tournament Championship game. Both years they lost to LIU-Brooklyn, which is once again a viable scenario this season. Also researching that led me to the box score that reminded me that Robert Morris took Villanova to overtime as a 15 seed three years ago which just goes to show that I don't know what the hell I'm talking about.
SLEEPER: Bryant. "Who?" is what your asking and I don't blame you. As far back as 2008 Bryant was still in D-II before starting to transition to Division I. Four terrible years later (20 total wins including 2 last year) here are the Bulldogs in their first season eligible for the NCAA Tournament and sitting at 12-6 in the conference (good for a number 2 seed). Cool story, bro.
W's PICK: Bryant. It's too good of a story, although if they do make it and it gets crammed down our throats like everything else ESPN latches on too I'm going to regret rooting for this to happen. The Bulldogs aren't just a novelty - they rank #1 in the NEC in offensive efficiency and have two 17+ ppg scorers who cover you on the perimeter and in the paint with three other 9+ point scorers. They probably play too crappy on the defensive side to threaten anybody in the NCAA Tournament but as far as the NEC goes? It's in play. Sorry Robert Morris, maybe fourth time is the charm?
As far as Tuesday's results, Arkansas - a pretty big longshot as it stood - got crushed by Missouri which should take them out of the running for an at-large. Southern Miss lost by just four to Marshall, but that pretty much kilt them as well. Notre Dame probably sealed it with a win over St. Johns, while Iowa kept the dream alive by beating Illinois (who is probably safe either way). In the big elimination game between Ole Miss and Alabama the Rebels took care of business, beating Bama by four in a game they basically controlled from the tip so they're still alive, while Memphis locked up their bid, if they hadn't already, by taking down UTEP on the road. Meanwhile Boise State looked every bit a tournament team at UNLV, but because they didn't get the win they remain an absolutely difficult read. Just looking at season results and eye test they seem legit, but are about as hard on the bubble as possible. Interesting team to watch.
Wednesday's action features a nice mix of teams who really could use a big win - Villanova (vs. Georgetown), Iowa State (vs. Oklahoma State), Maryland (vs. UNC) - can lock up a bid with a win - Oklahoma (@ WVU), Cal (vs. Stanford), San Diego State (vs. Air Force), Minnesota (@ Nebraska) - and team's on shaky ground who can't afford a loss to an inferior opponent - Temple (@ Fordham), LaSalle (vs. G. Washington), and VCU (vs. Richmond). In other words, there's a ton going on that could shift a whole bunch of teams a whole bunch of lines. Should be fun night. I'll spend it watching the Gophers instead.
Since the last time the Gophers played Nebraska the Huskers have gone 2-5 with the two wins home games vs. Iowa and Penn State. In that time they've also played Ohio State and Michigan State at home, losing both by less than ten (7 and 9) so they're not exactly a juggernaut, but road games in the Big 10 are never easy even if Nebraska doesn't really have any impressive home upsets to point to.
Overall Nebraska is a pretty terrible team. They don't do anything particularly well other than take care of the basketball, are thoroughly mediocre on defense, and area terrible shooting team. You remember when the Gophers smoked them at Williams, right? The talent disparity between the two teams is glaring, and the only thing that kept Nebraska at all in the game (and the Gophers won by 19) was Ray Gallegos going coo-coo from three and scoring 30 points. Could that happen again but like, way more dramatic? I suppose, but Gallegos has only scored more than 11 points once in the seven games since then, everyone else on Nebraska sucks, and the Gophers look like they've finally figured things out again. If you're going to have a lull like the Gophers did, have it in the middle of the season, not the end. I choose to believe they're back.
Minnesota 70, Nebraska 53
Now on to Wednesday's tournaments.
ATLANTIC SUN
Another pretty terrible conference like the Big South, but the one thing the A-Sun has going for it is two dominant teams in Mercer and Florida Gulf Coast who are both in the top two in the conference in both offensive and defensive efficiency. When you're dealing with a low major you can forget about having a balanced, deep league and you just have to hope you have a squad or two that is good enough to grab some name recognition by beating, or at least scaring, its first round NCAA foe. Both these teams have a least a chance.
FAVORITE: Mercer. The Bears take the one seed by a game over FGC, but I'm not sure they're the better team. The Bears have a nice non-conference win over Florida State, but FGC beat Miami. Both come in hot with Mercer finishing out at 9-1 and the Eagles at 9-2, and the Eagles won their last meeting last week by 3. This is one of those conference tournaments where if the favorites win out and Mercer meets FGC in the Final it will be worth your time to watch. Probably.
SLEEPER: North Florida. Well, probably not, but they do have Will Wilson, who you may remember as the point guard who never ever ever scores. You will be happy to know that Wilson, who played 31.5 minutes per game this year, upped his scoring average to 3.6 per game, a career high, while upping his assists to 6.1 per game. His total points this season were 112, nearly doubling his career point total which stood at 121 coming into the year. And he did, in fact, finally break double figures in a game this year notching 13 against Jacksonville so congratulations. Will Wilson, we salute you.
W's PICK: Florida Gulf Coast. The Eagles are just more tested, having played four tournament teams this year (Miami, Duke, Iowa State, VCU) while Mercer has just New Mexico. Granted that all happened a long time ago and is pretty much irrelevant, but like I said, it's awfully tough to separate these teams.
PATRIOT LEAGUE
I know you're thinking whoopity-doo another terrible conference and you're right, but you're also sort of wrong too. This might be the best version of the Patriot League I can recall (although they're still ranked as just the 17th best conference by kenpom). Bucknell and Lehigh are top 100 teams with two others in the 100s and only Navy falling past #300. Might not sound like much, but it's a step in the right direction and you can see the difference finally allowing athletic scholarships can make.
FAVORITE: Bucknell. Unfortunately C.J. McCollum broke his foot in a game against VCU this winter (a game Lehigh lost by only four) so the Bison won the league crown and the #1 seed. That's not a slam on Bucknell, who are a very good team with wins over Purdue and LaSalle this season, it's just a bummer because most of the Lehigh team that beat Duke was back this year and McCollum is an amazing player. Even so, Bucknell's Mike Muscala is a stud as well who averaged a double-double while leading the conference in scoring and rebounding, and if the Bison get through they're absolutely a threat to steal a win in the tournament.
SLEEPER: Army. The Black Knights play at a pace considerably fast than anyone else in the Patriot and do so while shooting, and making, a ton of three pointers. That's the kind of team I like for a sleeper.
W's PICK: Bucknell. If McCollum returns from injury (even as of 3 days ago, the most recent article I could find, things are still up in the air) things get more interesting, but if he doesn't I expect Bucknell to run the table pretty easily.
OHIO VALLEY
Belmont moving in to the OVC was supposed to create a two-headed monster at the top of the conference with the Bruins and Murray State. The only problem was the Racers didn't hold up their end of the bargain, whiffing on their only real out of conference chance to get a big win against Colorado (and what a horrible schedule they put together) and going just 10-6 in conference. Belmont still has an outside chance at an at-large given good computer numbers and a 14-2 conference record but it's an outside shot at best and the OVC will most likely remain a one-bid league.
FAVORITE: Belmont. These guys have been relevant long enough that I can even tell you their two best players without looking it up - Ian Clark and Kerron Johnson - a pair of senior guards who have been this team's leaders forever. Their are three other upperclassmen starters as well and those five play the majority of the team's minutes and basically score all their points. They've been in the last two NCAA Tournaments but haven't broken through for a win yet. With that experience now could this be the year.
SLEEPER: Eastern Kentucky. Given Murray State's rough year and not even ranking in kenpom's Top 25 they might be a more appropriate sleeper than EKU - the team that finished with the second best record in the league and only team in the top 2 in both O and D efficiency in the OVC - but I'm pretty sure Murray is still the sexier pick since the media has bludgeoned us all over the head with them for years. The Colonels create a ton of turnovers but don't defend all that well, which is generally death to teams who play the Bruins. Still, they've probably got the best shot to knock them off.
W's PICK: Belmont. I feel like I'm picking a lot of favorites, but that's kind of how it works in these conferences. Also, to answer my earlier rhetorical question, no it's not the year. Belmont won't win an NCAA Tournament game again.
WEST COAST CONFERENCE
A pretty uninteresting conference tournament but in an interesting way. There are two possible NCAA teams here: Gonzaga (locked in, possible #1 seed) and St. Mary's (right on the bubble). What St. Mary's could really use is another quality win, but the only way to get one at this point in the WCC is to beat Gonzaga. However, because of their seeds, beating Gonzaga is only possible in the WCC Tournament Final, which would put the Gaels in automatically. So either St. Mary's wins their way in, or they've already done enough to get the invite. Uninteresting in an interesting way, which is what I said if you had been paying attention.
FAVORITE: Gonzaga. Although the WCC is far better than a lot of other conferences I have or will be previewing (ranking 10th) there might not be a more prohibitive favorite in any conference than Gonzaga. The Zags are in line for a possible #1 seed, are 16-0 in conference play, and rank as the #4 team in the country according to kenpom. Sure, St. Mary's (rank #19), BYU (#71), and Santa Clara (#87) are quality teams with their eyes on the upset, but Gonzaga has crushed all three of these teams this year.
SLEEPER: San Francisco. It's not easy to pick a sleeper here when the top four just beat up on each other and killed everyone else (between the four good teams only three of their losses came to other teams) so I'll go with the team that picked up one of those (over BYU) and has an interesting statistical profile. The Dons, who are coached by Rex Walters which feels relevant for some reason, hit 40.2% of their three pointers this year, good for 9th best in the nation. So that's something. Although the way the WCC sets things up it's almost guaranteed to be either Gonzaga or St. Mary's coming out of here.
W's PICK: St. Mary's. This isn't an indictment of Gonzaga, because I do think they're a Final Four contender who deserves a one seed, but St. Mary's is going to be playing as if their lives depend on it in this game - and their tournament lives very well might. I think they're flying under the radar a bit, especially since Gonzaga swept them, and I don't want to have to stop watching Matthew Dellavedova yet. If loving that floppy haired little muppet is wrong I don't want to be right.
NORTHEASTERN CONFERENCE
You want to talk about a conference only a mother could love, let's go with the NEC. They're consistently ranked in the bottom quartile for conference strength, and if you look at the list of teams I don't know that they've ever even been close in an NCAA Tournament game, much less won one. There are a handful of other conferences who can never rise out of the bottom of the barrel as a whole, but outside of the SWAC I can recall each one of those conferences at least being competitive with many of them actually winning games here and there. Not so the NEC. Where have you gone, Charles Jones?
FAVORITE: Robert Morris. The closest thing the NEC puts out as a power program, the Colonials have missed the NCAA Tournament each of the last two seasons despite winning at least 12 conference games each year and advancing to the NEC Tournament Championship game. Both years they lost to LIU-Brooklyn, which is once again a viable scenario this season. Also researching that led me to the box score that reminded me that Robert Morris took Villanova to overtime as a 15 seed three years ago which just goes to show that I don't know what the hell I'm talking about.
SLEEPER: Bryant. "Who?" is what your asking and I don't blame you. As far back as 2008 Bryant was still in D-II before starting to transition to Division I. Four terrible years later (20 total wins including 2 last year) here are the Bulldogs in their first season eligible for the NCAA Tournament and sitting at 12-6 in the conference (good for a number 2 seed). Cool story, bro.
W's PICK: Bryant. It's too good of a story, although if they do make it and it gets crammed down our throats like everything else ESPN latches on too I'm going to regret rooting for this to happen. The Bulldogs aren't just a novelty - they rank #1 in the NEC in offensive efficiency and have two 17+ ppg scorers who cover you on the perimeter and in the paint with three other 9+ point scorers. They probably play too crappy on the defensive side to threaten anybody in the NCAA Tournament but as far as the NEC goes? It's in play. Sorry Robert Morris, maybe fourth time is the charm?
As far as Tuesday's results, Arkansas - a pretty big longshot as it stood - got crushed by Missouri which should take them out of the running for an at-large. Southern Miss lost by just four to Marshall, but that pretty much kilt them as well. Notre Dame probably sealed it with a win over St. Johns, while Iowa kept the dream alive by beating Illinois (who is probably safe either way). In the big elimination game between Ole Miss and Alabama the Rebels took care of business, beating Bama by four in a game they basically controlled from the tip so they're still alive, while Memphis locked up their bid, if they hadn't already, by taking down UTEP on the road. Meanwhile Boise State looked every bit a tournament team at UNLV, but because they didn't get the win they remain an absolutely difficult read. Just looking at season results and eye test they seem legit, but are about as hard on the bubble as possible. Interesting team to watch.
Wednesday's action features a nice mix of teams who really could use a big win - Villanova (vs. Georgetown), Iowa State (vs. Oklahoma State), Maryland (vs. UNC) - can lock up a bid with a win - Oklahoma (@ WVU), Cal (vs. Stanford), San Diego State (vs. Air Force), Minnesota (@ Nebraska) - and team's on shaky ground who can't afford a loss to an inferior opponent - Temple (@ Fordham), LaSalle (vs. G. Washington), and VCU (vs. Richmond). In other words, there's a ton going on that could shift a whole bunch of teams a whole bunch of lines. Should be fun night. I'll spend it watching the Gophers instead.
Monday, March 4, 2013
Conference Tournament Previews (Tuesday Editiion)
It's March, which means I'll do what I do every year at this time. Well, actually what I do every year at this time is obsess over the Bubble and try to figure out exactly how many games the Gophers need to win to get a bid or if they're already out unless they win the B10 Tournament. Since I don't have to worry about that this year (they're in, nerds) I'll concentrate more on the other thing I do every year at the beginning of March - celebrate the smaller conference tournaments and rejoice in day action. So here's we go.
These tournaments kick-off the action, beginning on Tuesday:
[ED. NOTE: I stepped all over TRE's Gopher hockey post, so make sure to check it out.]
BIG SOUTH
Wow. What a way to kick things off. The Big South has traditionally been pretty bad, but usually one of the teams is at least a threat. In recent years Winthrop, UNC-Asheville, and Gardner Webb have at least been a threat to win a first round game (with Winthrop pretty much being a mid-major darling) but those days are gone. This is a bad conference (ranks #29 out of #31 NCAA eligible conferences.
FAVORITE: Charleston Southern. Both the Buccaneers and High Point finished the conference schedule at 12-4, but the Bucs get the #1 seed thanks to beating the Panthers in their only meeting this season. Although these two teams are the best of the Big South by a wide margin they still aren't very good, combining to beat just three teams ranked better than #200 in kenpom's ratings (and none better than #189) and they have a combined five wins over non D-I teams between them.
SLEEPER: Virginia Military Academy. I believe in all the years I've been doing this I've picked VMI as the sleeper in the Big South regardless of their record (8-8 this year) because they play such an interesting style - run, run, run, score, no defense. It hasn't really worked this year, outside of a 4-0 start to conference play, but despite that pace the Keydets rarely turn the ball over so they get off tons of shots. They just need to get hot and they can make a run, although that hasn't happened much this season.
W's PICK: High Point. This is rough. Every one of these teams has some pretty glaring flaws, even compared to their peers. I'll go with the Panthers who have the league's #1 most efficient offense top defensive squad vs. three-pointers, but really anybody could come out of here to get crushed later.
HORIZON LEAGUE
It's a definite change to not just write Butler in here, but these are the winds of change and so go the days of our lives or something. And now Butler might be joining that new basketball only conference with the Catholic 7 from the Big East? Or formerly Big East or new Big East? I can't keep up. I enjoyed the first few rounds of conference realignment as much as the next guy, but seriously can we take our foot of the gas so I can figure out who goes where for a year or two?
FAVORITE: Valparaiso. Despite the loss of the star power of Butler, there are still a couple of stacked teams in the Horizon in Valpo and Detroit, who both made my preseason list of Top 68 teams (at #36 and #46, respectively). Although neither is in the at-large conversation anymore, both have enough ability to pull off a first round upset in the NCAA Tournament.
SLEEPER: UW-Green Bay. The Phoenix (lol) have non-conference wins over NDSU and Marquette, two of just four wins this conference managed against Kenpom Top 100 teams this year (none of which came from Valpo or Detroit, it's worth noting). They probably aren't a major threat this year but UWGB is a really young team with only one senior, so expect the Phoenix to rise to the top of the standings in the next year or two. You like that? Expect the Phoenix to rise? God I'm Rick Reilly.
W's PICK: Valparaiso. It actually pains me a little to pick against Detroit and Ray McCallum who will be in the NBA someday and is super awesome, but Valpo is stacked. Their trio of Bobby Capobianco (formerly of Indiana), Ryan Broekhoff, and Kevin van Wijk give them a combination of size, ability, and experience that few mid-majors can match. Assuming they can get somebody - anybody - to give them capable guard play and this is a dangerous March team.
Last night in college basketball nothing really interesting happened. Louisville crushed Cincinnati, which was supposed to happen, and Kansas super-crushed Texas Tech, which was definitely supposed to happen. This helps Kansas creep closer to a one seed as well as putting more pressure on Cincy who was looking like a definite NCAA team earlier this year but has sputtered lately. As long as they don't blow their last game against South Florida they should still be ok, but they've lost four of their last five and six of their last eight, so there's definitely some pressure involved in that last game.
The biggest bubble news of the night was Baylor's loss at Texas, which pretty much ends the Bears hope for an at-large. Has anybody ever done less with more than Scott Drew? Well I guess that's a little rough considering he has two Elite Eights since 2010, but those teams seemed to succeed in spite of Drew, not because of him. Right?
As far as bubble action tonight Arkansas is probably in the biggest must win situation here (@ Missouri) with a too high RPI and this being a big chance to get a signature win to help bring that down, although Boise State could really, really use a win at UNLV. Notre Dame is probably already in but it would behoove them to not lose at home to St. John's. Illinois probably puts themselves solidly in if they win at Iowa, while a loss isn't a killer, while Memphis faces a similar game at UTEP but a loss would hurt the Tigers quite a bit more. Lastly, we have a true elimination game with Alabama @ Ole Miss. It's very possible neither team gets in, but the winner definitely won't (barring an SEC Tournament title). Fun time of year, especially when I'm not worried about the Gophers every single day. Neat.
These tournaments kick-off the action, beginning on Tuesday:
[ED. NOTE: I stepped all over TRE's Gopher hockey post, so make sure to check it out.]
BIG SOUTH
Wow. What a way to kick things off. The Big South has traditionally been pretty bad, but usually one of the teams is at least a threat. In recent years Winthrop, UNC-Asheville, and Gardner Webb have at least been a threat to win a first round game (with Winthrop pretty much being a mid-major darling) but those days are gone. This is a bad conference (ranks #29 out of #31 NCAA eligible conferences.
FAVORITE: Charleston Southern. Both the Buccaneers and High Point finished the conference schedule at 12-4, but the Bucs get the #1 seed thanks to beating the Panthers in their only meeting this season. Although these two teams are the best of the Big South by a wide margin they still aren't very good, combining to beat just three teams ranked better than #200 in kenpom's ratings (and none better than #189) and they have a combined five wins over non D-I teams between them.
SLEEPER: Virginia Military Academy. I believe in all the years I've been doing this I've picked VMI as the sleeper in the Big South regardless of their record (8-8 this year) because they play such an interesting style - run, run, run, score, no defense. It hasn't really worked this year, outside of a 4-0 start to conference play, but despite that pace the Keydets rarely turn the ball over so they get off tons of shots. They just need to get hot and they can make a run, although that hasn't happened much this season.
W's PICK: High Point. This is rough. Every one of these teams has some pretty glaring flaws, even compared to their peers. I'll go with the Panthers who have the league's #1 most efficient offense top defensive squad vs. three-pointers, but really anybody could come out of here to get crushed later.
HORIZON LEAGUE
It's a definite change to not just write Butler in here, but these are the winds of change and so go the days of our lives or something. And now Butler might be joining that new basketball only conference with the Catholic 7 from the Big East? Or formerly Big East or new Big East? I can't keep up. I enjoyed the first few rounds of conference realignment as much as the next guy, but seriously can we take our foot of the gas so I can figure out who goes where for a year or two?
FAVORITE: Valparaiso. Despite the loss of the star power of Butler, there are still a couple of stacked teams in the Horizon in Valpo and Detroit, who both made my preseason list of Top 68 teams (at #36 and #46, respectively). Although neither is in the at-large conversation anymore, both have enough ability to pull off a first round upset in the NCAA Tournament.
SLEEPER: UW-Green Bay. The Phoenix (lol) have non-conference wins over NDSU and Marquette, two of just four wins this conference managed against Kenpom Top 100 teams this year (none of which came from Valpo or Detroit, it's worth noting). They probably aren't a major threat this year but UWGB is a really young team with only one senior, so expect the Phoenix to rise to the top of the standings in the next year or two. You like that? Expect the Phoenix to rise? God I'm Rick Reilly.
W's PICK: Valparaiso. It actually pains me a little to pick against Detroit and Ray McCallum who will be in the NBA someday and is super awesome, but Valpo is stacked. Their trio of Bobby Capobianco (formerly of Indiana), Ryan Broekhoff, and Kevin van Wijk give them a combination of size, ability, and experience that few mid-majors can match. Assuming they can get somebody - anybody - to give them capable guard play and this is a dangerous March team.
Last night in college basketball nothing really interesting happened. Louisville crushed Cincinnati, which was supposed to happen, and Kansas super-crushed Texas Tech, which was definitely supposed to happen. This helps Kansas creep closer to a one seed as well as putting more pressure on Cincy who was looking like a definite NCAA team earlier this year but has sputtered lately. As long as they don't blow their last game against South Florida they should still be ok, but they've lost four of their last five and six of their last eight, so there's definitely some pressure involved in that last game.
The biggest bubble news of the night was Baylor's loss at Texas, which pretty much ends the Bears hope for an at-large. Has anybody ever done less with more than Scott Drew? Well I guess that's a little rough considering he has two Elite Eights since 2010, but those teams seemed to succeed in spite of Drew, not because of him. Right?
As far as bubble action tonight Arkansas is probably in the biggest must win situation here (@ Missouri) with a too high RPI and this being a big chance to get a signature win to help bring that down, although Boise State could really, really use a win at UNLV. Notre Dame is probably already in but it would behoove them to not lose at home to St. John's. Illinois probably puts themselves solidly in if they win at Iowa, while a loss isn't a killer, while Memphis faces a similar game at UTEP but a loss would hurt the Tigers quite a bit more. Lastly, we have a true elimination game with Alabama @ Ole Miss. It's very possible neither team gets in, but the winner definitely won't (barring an SEC Tournament title). Fun time of year, especially when I'm not worried about the Gophers every single day. Neat.
Gopher Hockey Noobery
What I know about Gopher hockey could fit on the back of a postcard to Bison Dele, but I feel like we need to take notice here. I know literally zero, so let's see what I can learn in one evening of internet study. Obviously I'll form opinions with no real knowledge behind them like usual.
Minnesota is the #2 team in the country behind something called Quinnipiac. A little research shows that Quinnipiac is in Connecticut and only has an 8,400 student enrollment. They recently did the switch from the Braves to the Bobcats (way to be original) and now have a super lame logo.
Anyway, those losers are going to back to looking up the Gophers' tailpipe in short order which will leave Quinnipiac alum and black licorice lover Turk Wendell in tears. The Gophers are 22-7-5 overall and in second place in the WCHA two points behind St. Cloud State. They're coming off a weekend split against #12 Denver; losing on Friday 2-0 and winning on Saturday 5-1. This weekend they head to Bemidji State for their last games in the WCHA as next year they move on to the Big Ten Hockey Conference next year. There's only six teams in the conference so far, so I'm not sure what's up with that; but I can't learn everything in one night.
Leading scorer Erik Haula is a junior for the Gophers and has 42 points in 31 games. He is a Wild seventh round draft pick from 2009. Here he is scoring a kick-ass goal against Devil Wisconsin in November. The Fin is second on the team in goals with 15.
Fellow junior and leading goal scorer (17) Nick Bjugstad is a 2010 first round pick (19) of the Florida Panthers. The 6'6" center netted 25 goals last year and his uncle Scott was a North Star. Here's a sweet goal against Bahstun Cahlledge.
Sophomore Kyle Rau is on a bit of a cold streak with just one goal in the past 12 games, but is still second on the team in points with 33. Get to know him here!
Freshman goalie Adam Wilcox is 3-3-1 in his last 7, but it appears he's done a pretty good job despite the recent record. In 32 starts he's only allowed 4 goals on 4 occasions and 3 goals on another 4. He also has two assists and that's pretty sweet. Here he is doing a cool drill where he basically just slides around on his knees.
The WCHA Final Five is March 21-23 at the Excel Energy Center and is sponsored by Red Baron Pizza, which is delicious. I'm looking for OUR Gophers to get there and kick some major ass. Shit, I don't know...I tried.
Minnesota is the #2 team in the country behind something called Quinnipiac. A little research shows that Quinnipiac is in Connecticut and only has an 8,400 student enrollment. They recently did the switch from the Braves to the Bobcats (way to be original) and now have a super lame logo.
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| Rawr! |
Anyway, those losers are going to back to looking up the Gophers' tailpipe in short order which will leave Quinnipiac alum and black licorice lover Turk Wendell in tears. The Gophers are 22-7-5 overall and in second place in the WCHA two points behind St. Cloud State. They're coming off a weekend split against #12 Denver; losing on Friday 2-0 and winning on Saturday 5-1. This weekend they head to Bemidji State for their last games in the WCHA as next year they move on to the Big Ten Hockey Conference next year. There's only six teams in the conference so far, so I'm not sure what's up with that; but I can't learn everything in one night.
Leading scorer Erik Haula is a junior for the Gophers and has 42 points in 31 games. He is a Wild seventh round draft pick from 2009. Here he is scoring a kick-ass goal against Devil Wisconsin in November. The Fin is second on the team in goals with 15.
Fellow junior and leading goal scorer (17) Nick Bjugstad is a 2010 first round pick (19) of the Florida Panthers. The 6'6" center netted 25 goals last year and his uncle Scott was a North Star. Here's a sweet goal against Bahstun Cahlledge.
Sophomore Kyle Rau is on a bit of a cold streak with just one goal in the past 12 games, but is still second on the team in points with 33. Get to know him here!
Freshman goalie Adam Wilcox is 3-3-1 in his last 7, but it appears he's done a pretty good job despite the recent record. In 32 starts he's only allowed 4 goals on 4 occasions and 3 goals on another 4. He also has two assists and that's pretty sweet. Here he is doing a cool drill where he basically just slides around on his knees.
The WCHA Final Five is March 21-23 at the Excel Energy Center and is sponsored by Red Baron Pizza, which is delicious. I'm looking for OUR Gophers to get there and kick some major ass. Shit, I don't know...I tried.
Thursday, February 28, 2013
Game Preview: Gophers vs. Nittany Lions
Unfortunately league rules say that the Gophers can't just end the season now and head to the NCAA Tournament and have to finish out their schedule, and as such they will welcome the Penn State Nittany Lions to Williams on Saturday, a game that just got much more interesting with Penn State's home win over Michigan last night. The Nittany Lions show signs of a team coming together with several close calls leading up to this one (a 2-pt loss to Iowa, 8-pt loss at Michigan, and a 5-pt loss at Illinois) so the Gophers can't overlook this one - not that they could anyway.
The Nittany Lions beat Michigan mainly on the strength of great 3-point shooting (10-20), Michigan's poor 3-point shooting (5-20), and forcing a lot of turnovers (15). These are not things Penn State usually does well, ranking 321st in the country in 3-pt shooting (29.1%), 217th in opponent's 3-point shooting (34.5%), and 286th in forcing turnovers (18% of opp. possessions). It sounds like a big fluke, but looking at their three games prior they've made major strides in all three of these categories, and considering the Gophers struggle defending the three and turn the ball over as if they hate it, I feel a bit concerned.
Penn State plays just seven guys, and they mainly rely on two guards - D.J. Newbill and Jermaine Marshall to supply most of the scoring with both averaging north of 15 points per game and accounting for almost exactly 50% of the team's scoring this year (50.4% to be exact). Both guys fit the chucker mold - high shot attempts, low percentages. Newbill is fourth in the league in FGA despite hitting just 41%, while Marshall is 7th and knocks down 39%. Three-pointers don't get much better, with Marshall again 7th in attempts despite just a 33% success rate. Newbill, to his credit, can't hit the three (29%) but also has about a third as many attempts as Marshall. Newbill also has the ability to pass the ball, ranking fourth in the conference with 4.1 assists per game, and rather than settling for jumpers like Marshall mainly does, Newbill attacks the rim and can draw fouls. Although neither is especially terrifying, either one can get hot (Marshall was 6-10 on threes vs. Michigan) and carry a team.
The complementary players all fill a specific role. Ross Travis, who the Gophers didn't need, is a horrific shooter who shoots way too many jump shots, but is a terrific rebounder who will probably annoy you at least once in the game. Sasa Borovnjak is your dopey foreign guy who hangs out in the lane all day but still only gets three rebounds per game. Brandon Taylor is the designated shooter (as much as their can be one with Newbill and Marshall involved) who sits outside and shoots threes all day (second on the team in 3PA) despite only hitting 31% and being 6-7, and Nick Colella is your annoying little walk-on guard dude. Travis, Borovnjak, and Taylor have all had semi-big games (although Taylor hasn't hit double figures since early January) but none of them should be able to do much against the Gophers.
Penn State has two ways to win this game: get crazy hot from three, which would have seemed impossible if it hadn't just happened last night, or catch the Gophers coming out flat, resting on their laurels after the big win against Indiana. I suspect the latter rather than the former to be the biggest danger, but there are a couple factors that I think mitigate that risk. First, Penn State is just as likely to come out flat and content after winning their first game in Big Ten play against a terrific opponent and then having to go on the road. Second, it's seniornight day! The one game in a season when you can count on your team coming out fired up and playing with total emotion. No chance the Gophers come out flat.
I think the most likely scenario is the Gophers come out fired up and ready to play, get a bunch of easy buckets, and push Penn State around until they realize they're completely out of their element, leading to a pretty easy Gopher W.
Minnesota 77, Penn State 53
The Nittany Lions beat Michigan mainly on the strength of great 3-point shooting (10-20), Michigan's poor 3-point shooting (5-20), and forcing a lot of turnovers (15). These are not things Penn State usually does well, ranking 321st in the country in 3-pt shooting (29.1%), 217th in opponent's 3-point shooting (34.5%), and 286th in forcing turnovers (18% of opp. possessions). It sounds like a big fluke, but looking at their three games prior they've made major strides in all three of these categories, and considering the Gophers struggle defending the three and turn the ball over as if they hate it, I feel a bit concerned.
Penn State plays just seven guys, and they mainly rely on two guards - D.J. Newbill and Jermaine Marshall to supply most of the scoring with both averaging north of 15 points per game and accounting for almost exactly 50% of the team's scoring this year (50.4% to be exact). Both guys fit the chucker mold - high shot attempts, low percentages. Newbill is fourth in the league in FGA despite hitting just 41%, while Marshall is 7th and knocks down 39%. Three-pointers don't get much better, with Marshall again 7th in attempts despite just a 33% success rate. Newbill, to his credit, can't hit the three (29%) but also has about a third as many attempts as Marshall. Newbill also has the ability to pass the ball, ranking fourth in the conference with 4.1 assists per game, and rather than settling for jumpers like Marshall mainly does, Newbill attacks the rim and can draw fouls. Although neither is especially terrifying, either one can get hot (Marshall was 6-10 on threes vs. Michigan) and carry a team.
The complementary players all fill a specific role. Ross Travis, who the Gophers didn't need, is a horrific shooter who shoots way too many jump shots, but is a terrific rebounder who will probably annoy you at least once in the game. Sasa Borovnjak is your dopey foreign guy who hangs out in the lane all day but still only gets three rebounds per game. Brandon Taylor is the designated shooter (as much as their can be one with Newbill and Marshall involved) who sits outside and shoots threes all day (second on the team in 3PA) despite only hitting 31% and being 6-7, and Nick Colella is your annoying little walk-on guard dude. Travis, Borovnjak, and Taylor have all had semi-big games (although Taylor hasn't hit double figures since early January) but none of them should be able to do much against the Gophers.
Penn State has two ways to win this game: get crazy hot from three, which would have seemed impossible if it hadn't just happened last night, or catch the Gophers coming out flat, resting on their laurels after the big win against Indiana. I suspect the latter rather than the former to be the biggest danger, but there are a couple factors that I think mitigate that risk. First, Penn State is just as likely to come out flat and content after winning their first game in Big Ten play against a terrific opponent and then having to go on the road. Second, it's senior
I think the most likely scenario is the Gophers come out fired up and ready to play, get a bunch of easy buckets, and push Penn State around until they realize they're completely out of their element, leading to a pretty easy Gopher W.
Minnesota 77, Penn State 53
Tuesday, February 26, 2013
Wait, what? Gophers beat who?
Wow. That was unexpected. I'm pretty sure I can't write anything too intelligent or insightful right now since I was pretty much watching that game on pure emotion, but I can throw down a few thoughts because if you're like me you are just going to spend all day at work reading everything you can find about the game. So I'll sit here with my celebratory cognac (fine, vodka and coke) and write a couple of thoughts. Also, it's not coke, it's R.C. *hangs head in shame
[NOTE: This formatting is horrendous. I'd fix it but I have no idea how.]
[NOTE: This formatting is horrendous. I'd fix it but I have no idea how.]
- This was the Gopher team we saw in the early season. If they can play like this to close out the year they're a sweet 16 contender again.
- This wasn't a case of Indiana playing poorly, the Gophers simply outplayed them.
- I thought Dre Hollins would be the one to step up and carry the team if anybody did, but no question it was Mbakwe setting the tone in the first half. Remember last year at the beginning of the season when the Gophers would spend three quarters of the game struggling against crappy teams and then Mbakwe would be all like "ok, I'm getting every missed shot now" and carry them back to a win? Yeah, that's what he was again tonight. Was amazing.
- Really, nobody played poorly though. Even those who didn't play well overall made huge plays at some point. Hollins, Hollins, and Rodney all shot poorly, but Dre hit some huge shots down the stretch (including that monster three down the stretch which, right before, I told the Bear (who came to the game with me) that if the Gophers hit a 3 on that possession I'd do something unspeakable to him so well, there's that), Austin had a couple of huge plays, and Rodney had that big Hakim Warrick style block on an Oladipo three as time was running out. Everybody came up with a big play at some point. Everybody. Even the 5 second call on Indiana came when Mo Walker was in the game. He had nothing to do with it, but he was there.
- Some will say this is enough to guarantee the Gophers a tournament berth no matter what happens the rest of the way. I'm not quite that certain, but at this point I'm confident if they can beat either Penn State at home OR Nebraska on the road that will do it. Obviously the more wins they can get the better the seed, but as long as the Gophers don't go 0-4 to finish up (including the B10 tournament) it should be the easiest Selection Sunday in years. Decades, really.
- I've gone on record as saying I'm terrified of a Mo Walker/Elliott Elliason starting front court next season. No longer. I'm not exactly fired up about it, but Elliason has done enough go convince me at worst he can be a Trevor Winter type, and he has two years to get better. Walker has shown enough flashes of potential to at least temper my scaredness. With Hollins, Hollins, and Coleman still going to be around those two just have to be not terrible for the team to at least be in contention for an NCAA bid. Still hoping and believing in a Chuck Buggs breakout. Believe with me.
- Speaking of believing, man did whoever is in charge of music botch the "Don't Stop Believing" music in the final minute or so of the game. Started it too late and never even got to the chorus. Horrible.
- Cody Zeller is every bit as good as advertised. He is smooth in the paint and has a bunch of really good moves he can go to on the block. He's also a bit soft, however, and disappeared after Mbakwe, Elliason, and Williams reminded him that this is the Big Ten and pushing people and elbows and what not is the norm. I heard someone mention that Indiana stopped looking for Zeller, but really Zeller stopped posting up hard in the second half. Sorry, but it's true.
- Also Victor Oladipo is ridiculous. If I had any criticism of Indiana tonight it's that they didn't just iso Oladipo every single time they had the ball, because Joe Coleman was the primary defender on him tonight and I'm sorry I like Coleman but he is a horrendous defender. Oladipo beat him to the paint every time he tried, and there were a couple of times I watched Coleman stand still as if rooted to the ground when he should have been providing some weak side help. Again, I like the guy a lot, but he's a horrific defender.
- That being said, overall the defense was outstanding tonight. Holding both Watford and Zeller to single digit scoring was huge, especially because Watford picked up six of his eight on shitty late threes that were half luck. Plus shutting down Hulls after his huge first half was big, and it happened because of more awareness of where he was and just a swarming defense that refused to give up good looks. We saw that kind of defense earlier in the year but it has since bailed, good to see it again.
- I haven't seen video of the play but Will Sheehey should be ashamed of himself if he really flopped there in the last 30 seconds or so, looking for a cheap flagrant against Dre Hollins. Crean should be even more ashamed if he encouraged him to do it. It's a rule that makes sense if common sense was applied, but it's not and it's reared it's ugly head too much this year in stupid places. To try to take advantage of it is embarrassing. I'd like to say you're better than that Crean, but I know you're not. ASS.
- 10 turnovers. That's it for the Gophers. Despite everything else I've written, which as usual is way more than I intended, that was really the key. Well that and the 17 offensive rebounds, but that's to be expected. This team is good enough to beat anyone in the country if they don't turn it over and actually play defense. This may be hyperbole but this R.C. is going to my head.
- I'm willfully ignoring the stretch of possessions where the Gophers offense seemed clueless and got nothing but terrible shots as the shot clock expired as well as the fact that this sets up the Gophers perfectly to lose their last 3 games and make everybody nervous. I will deal with all that later, for tonight, we party.
Monday, February 25, 2013
Game Preview: Gophers vs. Hoosiers
You guys remember way back when we thought the Gophers were a top 10 team with Final Four aspirations and they were going into Bloomington to play a monster game against the #5 Hoosiers? And then Indiana played a perfect first half to jump out to a 23 point halftime lead and we like oh man? And then the Gophers showed a tremendous amount of heart, hustle, and all out warrior mentality and came storming back and came within a botched rebound off a missed Indiana free throw of having a chance to improbably send the game to OT? Well I have bad news and bad news: Indiana is playing those perfect halves (sometimes two in one game) more and more often, while the Gophers have stopped showing any of those traits that helped get them back in the game at Assembly Hall.
Since that game, Indiana has gone 9-2 with blowout wins by 23 (Penn State), 37 (@ Purdue), 29 (Nebraska), and 28 (Purdue) to go along with marquee wins over #1 Michigan (by 8), @ #13 Michigan State (by 5), @ #10 Ohio State (by 13), and #4 Michigan State (by 4). They started the season as a juggernaut and are finishing as a juggernaut. They're blowing out bad teams and beating good teams, home and road. Meanwhile the Gophers are limping into the end of the season with their only three victories since the game in Bloomington coming in a lucky OT win against #20 Wisconsin, a last second win over Iowa, and a blowout of terrible Nebraska. Their last two games were a 19 point road loss at Iowa and a 26 point road loss at Ohio State. To say these teams have gone in opposite directions is a bit of an understatement, like saying Jennifer Lawrence is decent looking.
Statistically it's tough to find anywhere the Gophers have an edge. Minnesota should get some steals and block some shots and that's where the good news ends. Indiana lights it up from three, the Gophers can't defend the three. Minnesota turns it over like crazy, Indiana creates a good amount of turnovers. The Hoosiers are a great free throw shooting team, the Gophers are slightly below average (and outside of Hollinses are terrible). The Gophers biggest strength is getting offensive rebounds, and Indiana is adept at not allowing this to happen. The closest thing to a weakness for the Hoosiers is that they do turn the ball over almost as much as an average team (19% of possessions vs. national average of 20.2%). Can the Gophers play the kind of defense that forces Indiana into turning the ball over, all the while not getting too overextended with their aggression to allow open looks from both 3 and 2? They'll have to.
Indiana is simply loaded. They have two guys who are in the National Player of the Year discussion in Cody Zeller and Victor Oladipo who play different positions and impact the game in different ways and either or both can win a game basically on their own if they needed to. They have the underpants gnome in Jordan Hulls whose range starts when he crosses half court and who hits 50% of his threes anyway. All that without even mentioned Christian Watford yet, who might be the best inside/outside player in the conference. Even their one-time offensive weakness, freshman point guard Yogi Ferrell, has started to figure it out after realizing that nobody can keep him out of the lane. He still can't really shoot, but he's morphed into a Lewis Jackson type player, only one who still thinks he can hit threes - hopefully he takes a ton of them on Tuesday.
I realize everything I've written makes it sound like I think the Gophers have no chance, and that's not true, but I've just been so demoralized by the last two ass whippings it's tough to get positive right now. Normally I could point to the Gophers outscoring Indiana 52-36 in the second half in Bloomington and springboard that to the Gopher upset, but unfortunately the current Gopher squad so little resembles that team in its play that it may as well be a different season.
Even so, that second half and the first Illinois and Michigan State games say this team still has the talent to pull this one out, even if their recent plays gives very little indication that it would be possible. The players have to know just how big this game is, and if Tubby can find a little magic and rally the troops I still think the home court advantage in Williams could be enough to put the Gophers over the top, they just need a little bit to break right.
On the other hand, after looking lost for the better part of a month to the point where the players look to be close to quitting and Tubby can't blame the players for screw-ups fast enough the team almost looks like it's heading for a full breakdown. If Indiana jumps out to, say, a 15-5 lead that might be enough for everyone to go into their shell, pack up their things, and call it a day. That's why the first 8 minutes on Tuesday are going to be the most important. If Minnesota stays close, even if they lose but show that same ability and mental toughness from earlier this season, it will make me feel much better about the final stretch. If the Hoosiers win easily, however, it might be time to start making NIT plans.
Indiana 80, Minnesota 68.
Since that game, Indiana has gone 9-2 with blowout wins by 23 (Penn State), 37 (@ Purdue), 29 (Nebraska), and 28 (Purdue) to go along with marquee wins over #1 Michigan (by 8), @ #13 Michigan State (by 5), @ #10 Ohio State (by 13), and #4 Michigan State (by 4). They started the season as a juggernaut and are finishing as a juggernaut. They're blowing out bad teams and beating good teams, home and road. Meanwhile the Gophers are limping into the end of the season with their only three victories since the game in Bloomington coming in a lucky OT win against #20 Wisconsin, a last second win over Iowa, and a blowout of terrible Nebraska. Their last two games were a 19 point road loss at Iowa and a 26 point road loss at Ohio State. To say these teams have gone in opposite directions is a bit of an understatement, like saying Jennifer Lawrence is decent looking.
Statistically it's tough to find anywhere the Gophers have an edge. Minnesota should get some steals and block some shots and that's where the good news ends. Indiana lights it up from three, the Gophers can't defend the three. Minnesota turns it over like crazy, Indiana creates a good amount of turnovers. The Hoosiers are a great free throw shooting team, the Gophers are slightly below average (and outside of Hollinses are terrible). The Gophers biggest strength is getting offensive rebounds, and Indiana is adept at not allowing this to happen. The closest thing to a weakness for the Hoosiers is that they do turn the ball over almost as much as an average team (19% of possessions vs. national average of 20.2%). Can the Gophers play the kind of defense that forces Indiana into turning the ball over, all the while not getting too overextended with their aggression to allow open looks from both 3 and 2? They'll have to.
Indiana is simply loaded. They have two guys who are in the National Player of the Year discussion in Cody Zeller and Victor Oladipo who play different positions and impact the game in different ways and either or both can win a game basically on their own if they needed to. They have the underpants gnome in Jordan Hulls whose range starts when he crosses half court and who hits 50% of his threes anyway. All that without even mentioned Christian Watford yet, who might be the best inside/outside player in the conference. Even their one-time offensive weakness, freshman point guard Yogi Ferrell, has started to figure it out after realizing that nobody can keep him out of the lane. He still can't really shoot, but he's morphed into a Lewis Jackson type player, only one who still thinks he can hit threes - hopefully he takes a ton of them on Tuesday.
I realize everything I've written makes it sound like I think the Gophers have no chance, and that's not true, but I've just been so demoralized by the last two ass whippings it's tough to get positive right now. Normally I could point to the Gophers outscoring Indiana 52-36 in the second half in Bloomington and springboard that to the Gopher upset, but unfortunately the current Gopher squad so little resembles that team in its play that it may as well be a different season.
Even so, that second half and the first Illinois and Michigan State games say this team still has the talent to pull this one out, even if their recent plays gives very little indication that it would be possible. The players have to know just how big this game is, and if Tubby can find a little magic and rally the troops I still think the home court advantage in Williams could be enough to put the Gophers over the top, they just need a little bit to break right.
On the other hand, after looking lost for the better part of a month to the point where the players look to be close to quitting and Tubby can't blame the players for screw-ups fast enough the team almost looks like it's heading for a full breakdown. If Indiana jumps out to, say, a 15-5 lead that might be enough for everyone to go into their shell, pack up their things, and call it a day. That's why the first 8 minutes on Tuesday are going to be the most important. If Minnesota stays close, even if they lose but show that same ability and mental toughness from earlier this season, it will make me feel much better about the final stretch. If the Hoosiers win easily, however, it might be time to start making NIT plans.
Indiana 80, Minnesota 68.
Sunday, February 24, 2013
Where do the Gophers stand?
As of Sunday morning, the Gophers RPI is a robust 15 with the number 1 strength of schedule. I know what you're thinking, "Number 1 SoS? Get out of here", but it's the truth. Whether by design, luck, or something in between the Gophers managed to face very few true cupcakes this year. Going by RPI, only American (#286) and North Florida (#224) rank outside the top 200, which is cupcake territory. Every other opponent was at least decent, and having faced Duke (#1), Indiana (#6), Michigan State x 2 (#7), Michigan (#9), Memphis (#18), Ohio State (#23), Wisconsin x 2 (#24), Illinois x 2 (#33), Stanford (#67), Florida State (#68), Richmond (#80), South Dakota State (#84), North Dakota State (#86), Iowa x 2 (#90), Nebraska (#97), and USC (#100) you can see how they have the #1 SoS - I mean that is a pretty brutal slate. That's 20 games against the RPI top 100, and for comparison sake the #2 (Duke) and #3 (Miami) team's in SoS have played 18 and 16 games against that kind of competition.
Make no mistake, the Gophers computer numbers are extraordinarily strong. The only team to ever miss the tournament with anything resembling the Gophers' RPI was Missouri State in 2006 with an RPI of 21, but that was the year the Missouri Valley had 4 other teams get in and I'm guessing the committee wasn't about to put five teams in from a mid-major. Plus with 6 conference losses, no impressive out of conference wins, and a first round loss in the MVC Tournament they weren't really that strong of a team anyway - the situation is in no way comparable to the Gophers.
Breaking down the Gophers' results further, they've gone 3-6 against the RPI Top 25, 4-7 against the Top 50, and 12-8 against the top 100 - these are all really, really strong results. Add in road/neutral wins against Memphis, Illinois, Stanford, and FSU (all top 100 teams) and everything about their resume on paper says this is absolutely a tournament team. On paper.
As you know since you are reading this and I assume you're a Gopher fan, the Gophers haven't done anything worth noting in over a month outside of an extremely lucky OT win versus Wisconsin. They're currently in a 3-8 skid, and the last two losses have been really, really ugly - that matters. Right now the Gophers are on the bubble, but they're on the right side of the bubble. Joe Lunardi at ESPN has them as a 10 seed right now, but I'm guessing even a guy who somehow makes a living projecting the tournament field has no idea what to do with such a bizarre profile where the on court results and computer numbers don't match up.
I think for the Gophers to make it in the tournament it's pretty simple - they just need to finish strong. Whether it's beating Indiana, as unlikely as that feels right now, or by winning their final three games (Penn State, @Nebraska, @Purdue), a strong finish likely puts them in regardless of the results in the B10 Tournament. But fail to beat Indiana and drop one of those three games (I'm not even going to speculate on what would happen if they lost more than one, because that's pretty much season's over)? Suddenly the B10 Tournament becomes very important.
Let's assume they end up finishing 7th. The first round match-up would be against probably either Nebraska or Northwestern (Nebraska would be better since they're a top 100 RPI team right now). After that if they won the Gophers would play somebody like Michigan State who would probably just crush them. So, basically, the Gophers really need to take care of business to finish up the season.
There are plenty of other teams out there who are on the bubble and in similar shape to the Gophers, but it's not really worth worrying about them just yet because Minnesota's path is clear - finish strong. Beat Indiana and they're probably in even if they lose on of the last three. Lose to Indiana but finish out with three wins and they're in. Get to 9-9 in conference play one way or another and not only will we not have to sweat selection sunday, but the B10 Tournament becomes pretty meaningless as well. At 8-10 though? Well, then things get awfully tight.
I'd prefer to tackle the "fire Tubby or not" question in the offseason. For now, I'd just like to see the Gophers back in the tournament. Maybe even get a win. A boy can dream, can't he?
Make no mistake, the Gophers computer numbers are extraordinarily strong. The only team to ever miss the tournament with anything resembling the Gophers' RPI was Missouri State in 2006 with an RPI of 21, but that was the year the Missouri Valley had 4 other teams get in and I'm guessing the committee wasn't about to put five teams in from a mid-major. Plus with 6 conference losses, no impressive out of conference wins, and a first round loss in the MVC Tournament they weren't really that strong of a team anyway - the situation is in no way comparable to the Gophers.
Breaking down the Gophers' results further, they've gone 3-6 against the RPI Top 25, 4-7 against the Top 50, and 12-8 against the top 100 - these are all really, really strong results. Add in road/neutral wins against Memphis, Illinois, Stanford, and FSU (all top 100 teams) and everything about their resume on paper says this is absolutely a tournament team. On paper.
As you know since you are reading this and I assume you're a Gopher fan, the Gophers haven't done anything worth noting in over a month outside of an extremely lucky OT win versus Wisconsin. They're currently in a 3-8 skid, and the last two losses have been really, really ugly - that matters. Right now the Gophers are on the bubble, but they're on the right side of the bubble. Joe Lunardi at ESPN has them as a 10 seed right now, but I'm guessing even a guy who somehow makes a living projecting the tournament field has no idea what to do with such a bizarre profile where the on court results and computer numbers don't match up.
I think for the Gophers to make it in the tournament it's pretty simple - they just need to finish strong. Whether it's beating Indiana, as unlikely as that feels right now, or by winning their final three games (Penn State, @Nebraska, @Purdue), a strong finish likely puts them in regardless of the results in the B10 Tournament. But fail to beat Indiana and drop one of those three games (I'm not even going to speculate on what would happen if they lost more than one, because that's pretty much season's over)? Suddenly the B10 Tournament becomes very important.
Let's assume they end up finishing 7th. The first round match-up would be against probably either Nebraska or Northwestern (Nebraska would be better since they're a top 100 RPI team right now). After that if they won the Gophers would play somebody like Michigan State who would probably just crush them. So, basically, the Gophers really need to take care of business to finish up the season.
There are plenty of other teams out there who are on the bubble and in similar shape to the Gophers, but it's not really worth worrying about them just yet because Minnesota's path is clear - finish strong. Beat Indiana and they're probably in even if they lose on of the last three. Lose to Indiana but finish out with three wins and they're in. Get to 9-9 in conference play one way or another and not only will we not have to sweat selection sunday, but the B10 Tournament becomes pretty meaningless as well. At 8-10 though? Well, then things get awfully tight.
I'd prefer to tackle the "fire Tubby or not" question in the offseason. For now, I'd just like to see the Gophers back in the tournament. Maybe even get a win. A boy can dream, can't he?
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