Game Preview: Minnesota Gophers vs. Eastern Kentucky Colonels

Another bad team makes the trek to the Barn to take on your beloved Minnesota Gophers, this time in the form of the Eastern Kentucky Colonels, an Ohio Valley squad that comes in at 5-4 on the year, although that winning record is a bit misleading.  Since I just had a rather large, fancy meal (appetizers = meat & cheese plates, calamari with roaster red peppers (best calamari I've ever had), salad = romaine, red apple, red onion with a gorgonzola dressing (outstanding), main course = pan-seared swordfish (mushy texture and underseasoned, quite subpar, dessert = 20-year tawny port (tasty) so I don't have a ton of time to bang this out, so let's just hit the most important parts.  According to Kenpom.com, they have played nearly the worst schedule of any D-I team this year, and those two wins include games against two non D-I schools with "Christian" in the name, with Indiana State the only recognizable school in the bunch.  They also have registered losses against TX-Pan American (ranked #302) and Presbyterian (#296), the same team that got beat by 40 against Vanderbilt.
 
On the flip side, however, their only game against a decent team was against Murray State and they played well, falling 74-72, so they do have some fight in them and that mainly comes from their offense.  They are an above average offensive team, mainly due to good shooting (uh oh) and their ability to get to the line - they rank 15th in the country in Free throw attempts per field goal attempt.  They do turn the ball over often (232nd) and don't get offensive rebounds (287th) so they could struggle to get shots and if they get one it better go in.

Of course, the Gophers' biggest weakness has been when an opponent gets hot, and the Colonels have some candidates to do just that.  Five players average between 8.8 and 12.9 points per game, and their best player, Justin Stommes, hasn't even hit his stride yet after being suspended for the team's first three games for a violation of team rules.  Stommes is a 6-7 wing who plays like a point guard, distributing (led the team in assists both this year and last), driving (led the team in free throw attempts and makes last year), and shooting (42% from three both last year and this year).  To add to that, he's from Cold Spring, MN so you know this is going to be a big game for him.  Even if he's only the fifth leading scorer this year, he was the leader last year and he is absolutely the guy the Gophers have to watch out for.  And don't forget about that pesky super accurate from three-point land thing.  Not that that could ever hurt the Gophers.

Along with Stommes, four other guys can score the basketball with regularity:  guards Willie Cruz (9.9 pg), Josh Daniel (11.9), and Joshua Jones (10.0) and forward Spencer Perrin (12.9).  Daniel (41%) and Jones (46%) are excellent three-point shooters, as is guard Jeff Allgood (41%) off the bench.  As you could have guessed, they shoot an excellent percentage from three as a team and use it as a major weapon in their offense - so yes, there is reason to be nervous.  They have a lot of shooters to cover, and a guy like Stommes is going to be able to penetrate and find them open looks.  I have a feeling the Colonels are going to score a respectable amount of points.

The good news is EKU is an absolutely brutal defensive team, ranking 292nd in overall defensive efficiency and they've put up those kind of awful numbers against terribly bad opponents, so the Gophers should be able to score more.  They can't cover the three (teams actually shoot just as well against them as against Minnesota) so Blake Hoffarber and Devoe Joseph should have open looks, and their overall lack of size means that Trevor Mbakwe and Ralph Sampson should have plenty of chances in the paint.  Freshman Jeff Johnson (6-8, 228lbs) and sophomore Ruud de Jong (6-9, 245) are the only players with any real size, and de Jong hasn't played this year and may still not be playing - I can't find anything definitive.

So, in summary, EKU will turn it over but will also score some points, both at the line and behind the three-point stripe, but when they miss the won't get many second chances, while on the other end the Gophers should have open shots all day by dumping it in to the big guys and either letting them go to work or having them kick it out for open jumpshots, and then should be able to crash the glass to rebound their misses.  Sounds like an easy win for the Gophers, but it all depends on if they actually go to the bigs and just how many threes the Colonels can make.  To say my faith has been shaken is an understatement.  Gophers grab the win to secure a sweep of directional Kentucky schools, but it's going to be closer than it should be:

Minnesota 78, Eastern Kentucky 69.

Minnesota Gophers 83, St. Joseph's Hawks 73

Well it wasn't exactly pretty and didn't really cement the Gophers as a top 25 team, but a win is a win, a road win is always good, and not losing to a terrible terrible terrible team is even better.  St. Joe's hit 9 threes to stay in the game, which is too high, but shot just 31% because they had to hoist 29 attempts just to make those 9 trey-balls.  A cynic would say that St. Joe's really should have made more because they kept getting open look after open look, but are just a poor shooting team.  And that's exactly what I say.  The perimeter defense is still terrible, but at least they got a win.  I'm going to just jump ahead to the player-by-player comments here before I get way too negative after a win.  And yes, I was the kind of sucker who paid cash money so I could watch this game.

Devoe Joseph (19 pts, 3 assists, 4-6 on threes):   Those of you out there who complain about him not moving the ball enough or trying to do too much on his own, I'm very sorry to tell you this, but you are idiots.  He's not a point guard, he's a shooting guard being forced to play point, so naturally he's not going to be a elite distributor.  He's a pure scorer, and he hit a couple of huge threes down the stretch to make sure the Gophers didn't lose this game.  Once again, stop complaining about him.  If you don't I will come to your house hit you in the balls with a tiny hammer.

Ralph Sampson (10 pts, 5 rebs):  Pretty ugly overall for Ralph, whether because CJ Aiken is a good defender or because his dad was in attendance and sending weird satan vibes his way I couldn't tell you, but he did seem to perk up in the second half of the second half, and just in time.  He hit a couple of very nice buckets late right as St. Joe's was attempting to make a run, and he still looks so insanely smooth (think Rob Thomas featuring Santana) out there, but this tendency to shrink when he finds resistance is troubling.  As a freshman it's almost expected, but as a junior I'm a little bit irritated. 

Rodney Williams (2 pts, 1 reb):  Maybe the worst game he's played.  Got in foul trouble early and ended up playing just 8 minutes.  Let's move on.

Blake Hoffarber (14 pts, 3 assists, 4-6 on threes):  He still leaves a lot to be desired on the defensive end - both on and off the ball - but when he came up limping after hitting a three-pointer in the first half you can bet I was holding my breath in horror (just like at the end of the Blair Witch Project, which I don't care who you are if you didn't think that was scary in the theater you're either a liar or a moron).  He's just such a steadying influence on this team, not to mention he's shooting out of his head this year, and for him that's saying something.  I can't get over how much he means to this team.  I never, ever imagined myself saying that.     

Trevor Mbakwe (12 points, 16 rebounds):  Player of the game, which is something I have a feeling we're going to be saying a lot.  He nearly had a double-double at half time and kind of faded a bit, and he shot a brutal 16-footer early in the game that reminded everyone why he shouldn't be wandering outside of the paint very often, but he's just such a POWER FORWARD.  I love it.  It's like a regular player ate one of those magic mushrooms from Mario Brothers, he's just a beast.  Here's an awesome summary from the game play-by-play:

Awesome.  It would have been better if he scored instead of turned the ball over, of course, but still awesome.

Maurice Walker (10 points, 5 rebs, 4 assists):  The night belonged to Mo, who not only put up some excellent numbers but displayed enthusiasm and emotion (and effort) he hadn't really shown yet this year.  He was demanding the ball in the post, scoring when it was there and finding open teammates when it wasn't, and then yelling, chest-pounding, and generally whooping it up out there.  It was unreal from somebody who seemed disinterested a large chunk of the year thus far.  Seriously it was like Taco Bell announced they were going to an all-you-can-eat business model.

Chip Armelin (4 points, 4 rebs):  Not to overstate things, but this guy is amazing to watch.  He never, ever stops moving, and when the Gopher offense does that stupid crap when it stagnates and everybody looks lost having a guy who likes to run from baseline-to-baseline for fun can be a major asset, and that's what he did when St. Joe's went zone.  His numbers don't look all that great, but he is a major component of this team and a huge part of how well the offense plays on any given night.

Austin Hollins (6 pts, 4 assists, 4 steals):  Steady.  Guy is just steady, which is a major compliment for a freshman.  Other than a semi-flashy steal late and perhaps one of the worst air-balled wide open three-pointers in the history of basketball he pretty much went unnoticed.  Maybe it's his play, or maybe it's because I was watching a crappy internet feed while holding a screaming baby and trying to get Wonderbaby^TM to stop throwing Teddy Grahams at the dragons on the TV, but I just don't take much notice of him.  Much like that baby I just mentioned.  Dude is just steady.  Like Eddie.

Colton Iverson (0 pts, 3 rebs):  Outside of those statues on Easter Island that were obviously put there by aliens or time travelers, I've never seen anybody or anything so effective at just taking up space.  There will be teams he just can't play against due to his physical limitations (which would be moving at relatively the same speed as those same statues), but St. Joe's ain't one of 'em.

Maverick Ahanmisi (6 pts):  This is way up on the list of things I wasn't expecting to say at any point in the next four years, but Mav looked quite good out there today.  Not that this is a huge bar here, but I think he already looks like a better player than Justin Cobbs.  Now, we haven't gotten into conference play yet so things can change, but swapping Cobbsy for Maverick looks pretty good to me right now.


Lastly, here is the link to this week's Star Tribune Big 10 Power Poll as presented by Myron P. Medcalf.  Check it out for the overall rankings.

Here is the ballot I submitted (remember this is through Tuesday's games):


1.  Ohio State Buckeyes - They haven't played since the last poll, but nobody can convince me there's a better Big Ten team.

2.  Michigan State Spartans -  Definitely in the upper tier with Ohio State, but if this was anybody other than the Spartans with their reputation for slow starts and runs in March, I'd be very concerned with their inability to beat any top-flight teams.

3.  Illiinois Fighting Illini - A very nice win over Gonzaga shows the Illini's early season struggles are behind them, they are deep and are seemingly getting better every time out - a scary proposition.

4.  Purdue Boilermakers - It feels like they're struggling, but really the loss to Richmond is the only blip on their schedule.  Wins last week at Virginia Tech and vs. Alabama might not be exactly marquee, but they are quality.

5.  Wisconsin Badgers - It might have been a fluke, but NC State should be a bubble team at worst this year and Wisconsin throttled them by 40.  Jon Leuer might very well be the best player in the conference.

6.  Northwestern Wildcats - The only undefeated team in the conference other than Ohio State, Northwestern has handled their business against inferior opponents.  Unfortunately the schedule is empty as can be until Big Ten play starts, so we won't really be able to get a handle on how good Northwestern is until then.

7.  Minnesota Gophers - The loss to Virginia and narrow win over Cornell exposed some pretty big weaknesses in the Gophers.  It's tough to say how things would look if Al Nolen wasn't hurt,

8.  Michigan Wolverines - I still think people are sleeping on the Wolverines a bit.  That win over Clemson is a good one, and .  Darius Morris is the real deal, if they get anything out of their front court (and Jordan Morgan suddenly looks interesting) they could shock a team or two.

9.  Indiana Hoosiers -The record looks nice at 7-1, but those seven wins were against teams with a combined 12 wins against Division I teams combined - not exactly murderer's row.  Let's see how they fare against Kentucky on Saturday, that will let us know if we need to pay attention or not.

10.  Penn State Nittany Lions -  Saturday's win over Duquesne is decent, but the Nittany Lions still need to get a big win - they've whiffed against Ole Miss and Maryland so far.  Sunday's game against Virginia Tech is their last chance before conference play, but getting taken to the wire by Mount St. Mary's doesn't bode well for their chances..


11.  Iowa Hawkeyes -  The win over Northern Iowa pulls them closer to leaving the cellar.  Too bad UNI is way down this year.


Actually I'm kind of thinking this is separating itself into tiers pretty clearly.  You have the Spartans and Buckeyes in a class by themselves at the top, with Illinois a half-step below.  Then Purdue, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Northwestern in another tier.  Below them is Michigan and Indiana, and then in a final, sad tier is Penn State and Iowa.  Obviously there could be some shifting here and there, but it's pretty clear to me where the teams separate themselves from each other.

Did you know mannequins don't have a weiner?

Game Preview: Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. St. Joseph's Hawks

I am not going to mess around here.  The Saint Joe's team your Minnesota Gophers are playing tonight is not a good team.  Not remotely.

They sit at 3-5 with double-digit or nearly double-digit losses to some bad teams:  Western Kentucky (by 28), Drexel (by 12), Penn State (by 9), and Princeton (by 9).  Their three wins are against a horrible group of teams - Norfolk State, Fairfield, and Rutgers.  Really, other than a 9-point loss to Villanova, which I should point out is a heated rivalry game, they've shown almost no signs of life.

They don't really do anything well, either.  The can't shoot (244th in effective field goal percentage), they don't get offensive rebounds when they miss (293rd), although they allow their opponents to do so with some frequency (216th).  They never turn their opponents over (256th) and allow them to score at will (51% 2-pointers against, 264th).  Even the Gopher kryptonite, perimeter shooting, shouldn't be too much of a concern since St. Joe's doesn't shoot them often (32% of attempts are threes, 187th) or well (27.8%, 308th).

THAT BEING SAID, keep in mind this:

 

What you might notice is that every team other than Wofford, UNC, and NDSU (two of which were cold as ice) shot the 3-better against the Gophers than they have as a whole this season.  What this tells me is you can't count out anybody against them because they can give up open looks in bunches and if one player (Siena) or multiple players (Virginia) are knocking them down, they're going to be able to stay in the game (Cornell) and maybe even snag the win, as long as they have somebody who can hit.  Natually, since the Hawks are still technically a division-I team, they do.

They have their chuckers of course, every bad team does.  "Shooting" guard Justin Crosgile is 4-21 this year after shooting just 31% last year, while freshman Patrick Swilling (I think related to the LB) is an admirable 0-12 and CJ Aiken (more on him in a bit) is 3-13.  But then there's Carl Jones and Langston Galloway.

Neither shoot a great percentage (35% and 32%, respectively), and neither shoot ridiculously often (tied for the team lead at 34 attempts, which is half as many as Hoff has shot), but they are the two leading scorers and two leading shot attempters on the team, and against a defense that has zero idea how to defend the three-point line this worries me.  It's not like these guys can't get hot:  Jones averages 17 points a game and hit 4 of 5 three-point attempts the last time out against Princeton and Galloway is the hot-shot freshman who averages 10 a game and hit 4-of-5 from three against Rutgers.  What if they're both hot?  You know they're going to get open looks, and you know we've mediocre three-point shooters light it up when they're open already this year against the Gophers (Ferry, Wroblewski, Farrakhan, Joe Harris, Clarence Jackson, etc.).  Scary.  And I didn't even mention Daryus Quarles, a freshman who doesn't shoot a ton but went 4-for-5 against Norfolk State from behind the line and is shooting 50% on the year.

Inside, the Gophers should have the advantage as they will against most teams.  Idris Hilliard is St. Joe's leading post scorer (9.9 per game) and the team's leading rebounder (5.1 per).  He's not going to overwhelm you with his size or strength (6-7, 220), but he's a smart senior player who knows where his strengths lie and isn't going to start wandering about the perimeter.

Of more interest is freshman center C.J. Aiken, considered one of the top freshmen centers in the country coming into the year.  He's played fine for a frosh (7 pts, 5 rebs per game), but has mostly made his mark defensively with 3.5 blocks per game.  Ralphie boy better bring his A-game, because if he gets a couple shots swatted I can see him shutting down for the night.  Not that Trevor Mbakwe and the rest of the offense shouldn't have their way with St. Joe's, but if that's so obviously the case then why am I so nervous?

Really, there's very little reason to worry about this game.  St. Joe's is a bad, bad, bad, bad team.  However the Gopher shortcomings on the perimeter open the door a crack for any team to step through, as we saw against both Virginia and Cornell, and being on the road for the first time all season is always an interesting adventure, and this team doesn't strike me as particularly mentally tough.  And what happens if Aiken gets the best of Sampson early?  So many things can go wrong.  I wish this game wasn't on the schedule.

Minnesota 69, St. Joe's 65

Week in Review - 12.06.2010

 Back by popular demand - the week in review.  I would have had this up for your Monday morning consumption, however Comcast decided to make sure nobody in the midwest who uses their service was able to access the internet.  I was caught in their evil web of lies and evil.  Luckily, we're back, so let's go.


WHO WAS AWESOME

1.  Trevor Mbakwe.  I'm starting to think calling him Reign Man II was maybe the most accurate thing I've ever done.  Freakishly athletic?  Check.  Strong dunker?  Check.  Incredible rebounder?  Check.  Unable to score from further than 8 feet from the rim?  Check.  Commits dumb fouls?  Check.  Seriously, all he needs is a bunch of kids by different ladies and a bunch less IQ points and he'd be Shawn Kemp, and I mean that as a total compliment because Kemp was one of my all-time favorites.  Really maybe the lone bright spot in a pretty crappy week for your favorite team, Mbakwe put up 18 and 11 against Virginia, and nearly brought the Gophers back in that game, and then followed it up with 12 and 16 vs. Cornell.  It will be interesting to see how he fares against the other Big Ten bigs, but so far he looks like he's on a whole different level out there - something the Gophers haven't seen at PF since......Courtney James, I guess?

2.  LaceDarius Dunn.  The Baylor star guard has simply been on fire since being cleared on a domestic assault charge that was clearly a case of either mistaken identity or someone trying to frame him.  In his three games back he's scored 24, 20, and 24 and averaged 4.3 rebound and 3.3 assists to go along with that while shooting 53% from the floor and going 16-31 from three, including 6-12 in Thursday's win over Arizona State.  The Bears are looking good with Lace looking primed for a big year, stud recruit Perry Jones living up to the hype, and the guys the needed to step up (A.J. Walton, Quincy Acy) have played well.  They've had a candy soft schedule so far, but keep an eye open for their December 18th game against Gonzaga, that one should give an idea of just how good Baylor can be.  They're still 30-1 to win the whole thing.  I suggest you grab some of that action now.

3.  Jon Leuer.  Of all the Minnesota high school players who the Gophers have lost out on, Leuer might end up hurting the most.  He joins a nice list of high school greats who spurned Dan Monson and found success elsewhere (Troy Bell, Cole Aldrich, Cory Johnson, Ryan Amoroso, Kammron Taylor, Lawrence McKenzie (initially), and Isaiah Dahlman (just kidding) to name a few) but if his stats so far this year are any indication Leuer might be the best of the bunch.  He dominated in both games this week, both in the big win over NC State (22 pts, 11 rebs, 2 stls, 2 blks, 2 assists) and in the easy win over South Dakota (29 pts, 9 rebs, 4 blks, 2 steals, 2 assists), and his overall numbers are certainly Big Ten POY worthy (20/8/2/1/2 with 50% shooting).  Pretty depressing.  He's like Mike Bauer if he actually kept improving instead of falling in love with the three-pointer and ignoring everything else.

4.  North Carolina Tar Heels.  I wouldn't exactly say they're going to be alright, but the win over Kentucky shows they can at least beat a quality, if overrated, team.  Tyler Zeller looks like an absolute player and he absolutely dominated the Wildcats, putting up 27 points (on 8-13 shooting), 11 boards, and 5 blocks and teamed with John Henson to block 8 shots and force Terrence Jones, a super-stud as a freshman so far this, into 3-17 shooting, basically confusing him, not allowing him to get any clean looks in the paint, and basically winning the game for the Heels because their guards and Barnes are still meh.  I don't know if they can get into the NCAA Tournament, but every quality win they can get helps the Gophers' chances so let's go Heels. 

5. San Diego State Aztecs.  A couple of very solid wins this week for SDSU, who continue to cruise.  This week they played a couple of other quality mid-majors - St. Mary's and Wichita State - and had zero problems.  They beat both teams by 14, and now sit and 8-0 with a quality win over Gonzaga on their resume already.  They've got a pretty easy road until they hit Mountain West play, and the MWC should be strong enough this year that SDSU should cruise to a bid as long as they don't complete crash and burn, and there's no reason to suspect that they might.  They have enough balance (6 guys score at least 8 per game) to handle a bad night from anybody, and the star power in Kawhi Leonard to carry them far in March.  Consider them a solid sleeper.  And I have them at 100-1.  Holla.


WHO SUCKED

1.  Minnesota Gophers Perimeter Defense.  Once is a fluke, twice is a problem, and a season-long issue is a major major problem that is going to kill this team at some point.   Virginia shot 10-13 from behind the arc and Cornell followed that up going 14-33, and the Gophers are now allowing their opponents to shoot 38.8% from three for the season, which ranks 296th in the country and dead last in the Big Ten.  Making the alarm bells right a wee bit harder is the fact that Northwestern, Michigan State, and Illinois all rank in the top 25 in three-point shooting in the country, and every Big Ten team outside of Penn State, Iowa, and Michigan shoot better than the D-I average.  So basically we're looking at two choices - learn how to defend the perimeter, whether through scheme, hard work, smarter decisions, or some combination, or get shredded all season long.  Not exactly Sophie's Choice here.  And if Tubby can't fix this, we have to start questioning him a bit, don't we? 

2.  The Pac 10.   USC did manage to beat Texas on Sunday, but prior to that the Pac-10 was cruising towards a second straight year of terribleness.  Just this week USC lost to TCU, Oregon State lost to Utah Valley (and got crushed by Colorado), and UCLA lost to Montana - and you can find a handful of games just like that for the conference each and every week.  Washington is looking like a Final Four type team and Arizona looks solid, but that's pretty much it.  UCLA and Washington State each have a shot at a bid depending on how things go, but it's very likely we're looking at just two tournament teams here.

3.  Atlantic 10.  If you pay way too much attention to this blog you know I probably like the A-10 a little bit more than I really should (with the exception of Dayton, which is full of whiny poser pansies), so it is with great pain I must announce that the A-10 is most certainly down this year.  There were supposed to be four very strong teams (Xavier, Dayton, Richmond, and Temple) along with a handful of sleeper candidates (St. Louis, Charlotte, and Rhode Island) - unfortunately it's not quite looking that way.  Just this week, St. Louis got smoked by Portland, Charlotte was downed by East Carolina, Xavier got rolled by Miami (OH), East Tennessee State came into Dayton and beat the Flyers, and Richmond, the one team that's looking good so far, lost to Old Dominion.  With the exception of the ODU game those are all bad, bad losses.  I'm thinking two bids might be the best case scenario here.  Shame.  And it would be a double shame if one of them went to Dayton.

4.  Virginia Tech Hokies.  The past two years have ended the same way for the Hokies:  Coach Seth Greenberg whining and bitching because Va Tech didn't get an NCAA tournament bid despite a good conference season because they would schedule an insanely weak non-conference slate.  This year they finally scheduled up, but that doesn't help if you can't win, and they can't win.  So far they've lost to Kansas State, UNLV, Purdue, and Virginia - the last two this week alone - and are now just 4-4 with only a win over Oklahoma State to show for their efforts.  They still have shots coming up against Penn State and Mississippi State, but man, they better do something.  Special shout-out to Hokie star Malcolm Delaney for shooting 2-18 (TWO FOR EIGHTEEN!!lol) and committing the fourth of his turnovers on the final play of the game to lose the game.  Bravo. 

5.  North Carolina State Wolfpack.  Not so much for their loss to Syracuse on Saturday, because the Orange are a very good team and NC State hung tough until the end, but for their embarrassing destruction by Wisconsin in their Big-10/ACC Challenge match-up.  They lost by 39, shot 32% while allowing 50% from Wisconsin, were out-rebounded 40-26, turned it over 13 times to just 9 assists, and forced just six turnovers.  In short, a total disaster.  They are certainly a talented team, but still very young, so a game like this was probably inevitable, but they need to start grabbing some quality wins here in order to justify my faith in them.  They have a game coming up in a couple weeks against Arizona.  Better win that one.



Honorable mention to Old Dominion, who were basically following a perfect blueprint on how to get an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament as a mid-major until this weekend when they lost to Delaware in their conference opener.  The Fightin' Blue Hens are expected to be a factor in the CAA race or any race, really, so this loss is going to hurt.  ODU has probably done enough to buy themselves some breathing room, but this loss cuts that cushion way, way down.  Way to go, jerks!

Also, can we please calm down about Michael Jordan's kid?  Thanks.

Game Preview: Minnesota Gophers vs. Cornell Big Red

Remember two years ago when the Cornell Big Red came to the Barn to play the Minnesota Gophers?  It was kind of an event because the team was pretty good and their was a little bit of a local angle.  The Gophers ended up winning, but Cornell's program grew and improved and last year reached the Sweet 16 in the NCAA Tournament.  Excited stuff.  But all good things must end.

Dead-eye shooter with a local tie to Minnesota?  Gone.  Seven-footer who could control the game on both ends?  Gone.  Quick and smart pass-first point guard who made it all happen?  Gone.  Five other players encompassing most of your depth?  Gone.  Coach who turned a nothing program into a top program?  Gone.

So you see, it's not really very exciting this time, because this team is bad.  They come in 2-5 with a 20-point loss to Syracuse and a 24-point loss to Seton Hall in their only games against high majors, sporting three other losses at the hands of Boston, Lehigh, and St. Bonnie's - Yeesh.  According to Kenpom.com they are below average both offensively and defensively, are a terrible shooting team (just 40% from 2-point range, 34% from three), and give up a ton of offensive rebounds while rarely grabbing one of their own.  They also rarely block shots and only occasionally grab a steal.  In short, a perfect team for the Gophers to play to get their swerve back.

The only main contributor the Big Red have back is guard Chris Wroblewksi (not to be confused with Stephen Tobolowsky):

Wroblewksi was sort of the assistant point guard last year but has been asked, out of necessity, to be more of a scorer this season.  This, as it usually is, has been a disaster.  Although he's increased his scoring from 8.9 to 13.8 points per game he's done it far less efficiently, shooting just 34% (37% from three) this year compared to 44% (and 45% from three) last year.  He's also managed to reach Courtney Fortson-like levels in turnovers, going from a respectable 1.9 per game last year to a game altering 4.6 per game this season.  Well done, all around.  I always find taking a quality, pass-first complementary and smart player and trying to make him into a team-carrying, shoot-first, ball dominator is a recipe for success.

And really, what more do you need to know?  Wroblewski missed the first two games for a reason that I'm not going to look up, and while he was out senior forward Aaron Osgood stepped up, leading the team with 16.5 points per game while shooting 79% from the floor.  Since Wroblewski has been back, he averaged just 4.3 points in the next three games while shooting just 25%, and has sat out since with a knee injury, obviously faked to avoid playing with Wroblewksi.  I also can't find any information on how bad the injury is or if he's going to be playing on Saturday, and I looked for like, 2 minutes.  So your guess is as good as mine.

The last player I want to mention, and this is almost solely because of what happened against Virginia, is guard Andrew Ferry, a transfer from Valparaiso.  The reason I want to mention him, as you might guess, is because he really likes to shoot three-pointers.  He's not particularly great at them, hitting at just 34% for the year, but Mustapha fucking Farrakhan was shooting just 27% before he played Minnesota, so there's that.  Anyway, he's shot 50 threes in 7 games, hasn't shot less than 4 in a game, has attempted 12 twice, and 75% of his field goal attempts have come from three.  So he's going to run around the three-point line looking for the slightest opening to chuck up a three.  They have another very similar guy in Max Groebe (if that's not a sweet nazi name I don't know what is), and Wroblewski is a bit of a chucker himself.

I'm going to start a new paragraph now because this is important.  If the Gophers play the same kind of lack-luster defense they did against Virginia, these three dorks are going to keep this game close.  The biggest difference is Cornell doesn't have a guy like Mike Scott and his split-finger of doom to dominate Ralph and score on the inside.  What they do have is Big Red Bear, Here Comes Treble, and all the brilliance of the Nard Dawg on their side.  It shouldn't be enough (please god), but I'm afraid they're going to make this more interesting than it should be thanks to crap-tastic defense on the perimeter.

Minnesota 74, Cornell 66.

Big Ten Power Poll - 12/1/2010

It's getting harder and harder to rank these teams for Myron Medcalf's poll on the Star Tribune each week.  Mostly because almost every Big Ten basketball team has disappointed in some way lately.  You can check out the poll on Medcalf's blog right here.


1.  Ohio State Buckeyes.  With their win at Florida State last night along with their earlier win at Florida the Buckeyes might now have the two most impressive wins by anybody in the whole conference.  Other than depth I'm not seeing any weaknesses in this team - through their top seven they are absolutely loaded.  

2.  Michigan State Spartans.  The game against Duke will let us know exactly where Sparty is right now.  But does it really matter where they are in December?  You know where they'll be in March.

3.  Illinois Fighting Illini.  The win over North Carolina was decisive and impressive, but I'm starting to wonder just how difficult that really is?  Still, Illinois has some nice looking wins already and are balanced and deep.  Starting to look like a definite Sweet 16 type of team.

4.  Northwestern Wildcats.  The schedule is still soft, but Northwestern is taking care of business and easy wins over Creighton and Georgia Tech this week were a step up in competition, but posed no issue for the Wildcats.  Shurna-Thompson-Crawford is actually a dynamic trio, as weird as that is to say about a Northwestern team.

5.  Purdue Boilermakers.  The loss to Richmond is disconcerting, but not a disaster since they're one of the better A-10 teams.  They still need a third scorer to emerge, but so far nobody has shown enough consistency to be the guy. 


6.  Minnesota Gophers.  Absolutely pathetic effort led to not only losing to Virginia, but getting humiliated in the process.  Yes, they were missing Al Nolen and Rodney Williams left early due to injury, but that can't excuse poor effort.   

7.  Michigan Wolverines.  Hung tough with Syracuse in the Legends' Classic but couldn't get the job done, and followed that up with a unimpressive effort in a loss to UTEP.  I was prepared to have them 10th, but the big win over Clemson - hard fought, on the road, and in never a doubt fashion - props them up quite a bit.  Darius Morris is the best point guard in the league, and it's not even close.

8.  Wisconsin Badgers.  The trip to Orlando has to be considered a disappointment, the Badgers come home 2-1 but without a single win over a probable NCAA tournament team.  Wisconsin is now 0-2 against probable tournament teams, and it would serve them well to beat NC State coming up.

9.  Indiana Hoosiers.  They're sitting at 6-0, but have yet to play anybody.  Their upcoming Big 10/ACC Challenge match against Boston College will be a match-up of two teams that are looking better than expected so far this year.  And Christian Watford is amazing.

10.  Penn State Nittany Lions.  The loss earlier in the week to Ole Miss was PSU's first chance at a quality win.  They have a huge opportunity coming up with Maryland coming to State College - it sets up very well for a big Penn State upset.  I'm calling it now.

11.  Iowa Hawkeyes.  Tough loss at Wake Forest keeps Iowa in the cellar.  They have a couple nice looking players who seem to be developing and gelling.  They're going to upset somebody once we hit Big Ten play.

NCAA Basketball: Thanksgiving Tournament Wrap

A hell of a lot of good basketball just wrapped up with the pre-Thanksgiving and Thanksgiving tournaments the last two weeks, so much so that it would be easy to miss some of the important stuff, especially with all the drinking and eating and football watching and generally being a complete moron doing really stupid stuff going on.  So I'm here to help.  Tournament by tournament, here's what you need to know:

PUERTO RICO TIP OFF
Championship:  Minnesota Gophers over West Virginia Mountaineers
Biggest positive:  Minnesota.  I wasn't really sure where they'd fall in the Big Ten pecking order.  Somewhere in the middle, likely, but towards the top of that middle or towards the bottom?  Well, wins over three potential tournament teams help answer that and push the Gophers towards the top of the conference.
Biggest negative:  North Carolina Tar Heels.  A year after the worst season for UNC in recent memory, the Tar Heels started this year with a lot of positivity and a lofty #8 ranking the country, but losses to both Minnesota and Vanderbilt show that this team isn't quite there yet.  A loss to one or the other could be shrugged off, since both are possible NCAA Tournament teams, but losses to both sends up a bit of a red flag.
Also of note:  Davidson 64, Western Kentucky 51.  This game, as well as WKU's narrow 2-point win over Hofstra, say that the Hilltoppers aren't going to be making the NCAA Tournament as at at-large.

NIT SEASON TIP OFF
Championship:  Tennessee Volunteers over Villanova Wildcats
Biggest positive:  Tennessee.  All their losses from last season had me convinced they were badly overrated and would be in the NIT at best this year, and then all the Bruce Pearl nonsense solidified that thought for me.  Turns out their better than I gave them credit for, and the combination of super freshman Tobias Harris on the inside and dynamic scorers Cameron Tatum and Scotty Hopson on the wings is looking like enough to drive the Vols to success.
Biggest negative:  Wake Forest Demon Deacons.  "Wait, I didn't see them in New York" is what you might be saying, and you're right, but that's because they got bounced out of the qualifying round - the "gimme" round held on their home floor.  Of course they also drew Virginia Commonwealth who was probably the favorite to come out of that region, but it just confirms that this is going to be a dark, dark year in Winston-Salem.  If this loss to VCU (by 21, if I didn't mention it) doesn't cement it, the earlier loss to Stetson and subsequent loss to Winthrop (both also at home) are pretty big clues.  But the biggest clue?  Iowa was favored over them in their ACC/Big Ten Challenge matchup tonight, and the game was at Wake.
Also of note:  VCU 89, UCLA 85.  Not content with just getting to New York, VCU then went ahead and beat UCLA to nab a third-place finish.  That's going to go a long way in getting the Colonial multiple bids this year.

COACHES VS CANCER CLASSIC
Championship:  Pitt Panthers over Texas Longhorns
Biggest positive:  Texas.  Last year the Longhorns had all the talent in the world, were ranked #1 at one point, and then death spiraled down and didn't even receive an NCAA bid.  This year saw a lot of turnover, and I'm not sure anybody really knew what to expect, as usual with a Rick Barnes team.  Beating Illinois and then hanging right with Pitt before losing by two shows they have some talent, it's just a matter of if they put it all together.  
Biggest negative:  Cory Joseph.  In the two games in New York, Joseph shot just 3-13, including 0-4 from three, with 5 assists and 3 turnovers, and threw up a ridiculous shot at the end of the final with the Longhorns down two when he thought he had been fouled in an attempt to get to free throw line.  The ref disagreed, and he threw away Texas's chance to win. 
Also of note:  Maryland Terrapins.  They went 0-2 in New York, but they weren't expected to win either game.  Losing to Pitt by nine and to Illinois by four bodes well for the Terps' chances in ACC play.


MAUI INVITATIONAL
Championship:  Connecticut Huskies over Kentucky Wildcats
Biggest positive:  Kemba Walker.  Coming into this tournament nobody was really sure what to make of UCONN.  Sure, they'd be a middle of the road Big East team most likely, but where would that really put them in the overall pecking order?  Well, Walker carried them on his back to the title here with games of 31, 30, and 29 points, and made sure everybody knew that he was good enough, and had enough talent around him, to make the Huskies a threat.
Biggest negative:  Oklahoma Sooners.  Eesh.  The Sooners looked decent in their opener, hanging with Kentucky, but completely fell apart from there.  First, they lost by 18 to a terrible Virginia squad who just go rolled by Washington by 40+, then they lost to Chaminade, the little host school who had won just five times in the 26 years prior of the tournament's existence.  Not only did they go down, but they went down bickering amongst themselves.  This is going to be a long year in Norman. 
Also of note: Wichita State goes 2-1, but leaves disappointed after blowing their opening round game against UCONN, a game they led by four with just four minutes to go.  It would end up being the only resume-building opportunity the Shockers would get, matching up against Virginia and Chaminade in their final two.  That could hurt come Selection Sunday.


CBE CLASSIC
Championship:  Duke Blue Devils over Kansas State Wildcats
Biggest positive:  Duke.  I have no idea how anybody is going to beat this team.  Marquette tried to go small to match Duke's quickness and whichever Plumlee it was destroyed them inside, then K-State tried to run with them and Duke ran 'em out of the gym.  They are good inside (Plumlees), have great guards (Nolan Smith, the unguardable Kyrie Irving), and have dead-eye shooters who you can't leave to go help (Andre Dawkins, Seth Curry).  And that's all without bothering to mention the ACC pre-season player of the year in Kyle Singler.  Look out, because they have a chance to go undefeated.  No, I'm not crazy. 
Biggest negative:  Duke.  The exact paragraph I just wrote is actually more of a negative because I, and everybody with a soul, hates Duke.
Also of note:  Gonzaga 66, Marquette 63.  Marquette lost both games in Kansas City, first to Duke by five and then this one to the Zags by 3.  Though those are both big missed opportunities, they also signal that for the second straight year a down year in Marquette might not be as down as we think.


OLD SPICE CLASSIC
Championship:  Notre Dame Fighting Irish over Wisconsin Badgers
Biggest positive:  Notre Dame.  The Irish picked up two wins over NCAA caliber teams, beating both the Badgers for the title and Georgia in the opening round.  It's very likely Temple and Texas A&M were the only other teams to even pick up one in Orlando.
Biggest negative:  Temple.  As noted, the Owls did pick up a win over Georgia that looks good, but losses to both Cal and Texas A&M are huge negatives.  A&M might be a bubble team, so that one will hurt, and Cal is likely to be a bottom of the barrel Pac-10 team while the Pac-10 is likely to be a bottom of the barrel conference.  The Owls were supposed to be the class of the A-10, but they sure didn't play like it.
Also of note: Notre Dame 58, Wisconsin 51.  The Badgers came into Orlando with a chance to pick up some nice victories, but Boston College's win over Texas A&M took that game off the board, and Wisconsin blew their chance against the Irish.  They come without a high profile win to show-off in March.


CHARLESTON CLASSIC
Championship:  Georgetown Hoyas over North Carolina State Wolfpack
Biggest positive:  Georgetown.  This wasn't exactly a murderer's row of teams, but beating Big South favorite Coastal Carolina by 19, SoCon favorite Wofford by 15, and a very good NC State team by 15 is a pretty nice weekend.  The Hoyas will be good, and in an odd-twist, guard dominated - their three top scorers are all guards.   
Biggest negative:  George Mason Patriots.  There's been a lot of early season success out of the Colonial Conference so far this year (VCU, Old Dominion), but George Mason whiffed on their chance to join in by losing to Wofford in the third-place game.  It's not an awful loss, but when you're a mid-major you need to win every one of these types of games to have a shot at a bid.
Also of note:  Wofford 82, George Mason 79.  I already mentioned this above as a negative for GMU, but it's a definite positive for the Terriers.  They have a brutal early schedule, but unfortunately missed out on a chance for an even bigger win by losing to Xavier in triple-overtime last week.  The 2-5 record also includes a loss to lowly Air Force, so an ambitious schedule goes for naught and Wofford will need to win their way in if they want to play in the NCAAs.


PARADISE JAM
Championship:  Old Dominion Monarchs over Xavier Musketeers
Biggest positive:  ODU.  This is what you need to do if you're a mid-major hoping to be in at-large consideration come March.  The Monarchs won the Paradise Jam Championship, beating St. Peter's (doesn't matter), Clemson (possible tournament team), and Xavier (very likely tournament team).  That is two huge wins, and assuming they don't falter in a strong Colonial ODU is in great shape.  
Biggest negative:  Alabama Crimson Tide.  From NCAA possibilities to the bottom of the league, the Tide embarrassed themselves, losing to Seton Hall (acceptable), Iowa (not acceptable), and St. Peter's (abominable).  Remember in Monson's last year or almost last year when the Gophers went to the Old Spice Classic and went 0-3, including a loss to Montana?  This is like that.
Also of note:  Clemson 64, Seton Hall 58.  Two teams that will likely find themselves in similar spots come year's end, this third place game could mean the difference between NCAA and NIT. 


SOUTH PADRE ISLAND INVITATIONAL
Championship:  BYU Cougars over St. Mary's Gaels
Biggest positive:  BYU.  It's questionable how much the two wins BYU picked up will really help them because I'm not sure South Florida or St. Mary's are tournament teams, but the way in which the Cougars won could be valuable in March.  The win over South Florida went to double OT before BYU hit a game-winner, and then the win over the Gaels was a one point victory on a 3-pointer by the Jimmer with 10 seconds left.  That kind of late game experience could pay-off big.  
Biggest negative:  Texas Tech.  The obvious choice as a downer since they were the team that went 0-2, it's sad for Tech because they have an experienced team with postseason aspirations, but getting blown out by St. Mary's and then blowing the lead against USF late says they suck.
Also of note:  Liberty 67, Chicago State 65.  This tournament has two brackets, a good one and a crappy one, and Liberty won the crappy one.  I can't think of a single reason why that's remotely noteworthy.


76 CLASSIC
Championship:  UNLV Runnin' Rebels over Virginia Tech Hokies
Biggest positive: UNLV.  Wins over both Virginia Tech and Oklahoma State give the Rebels two quality victories.  Since the Mountain West is likely to be very solid again with four very good teams, even if they beat up on each other the Rebels are in good position to nab an NCAA bid once again.
Biggest negative:  Murray State Racers.  Murray State has been tabbed as this year's Butler - not a bad call considering there stellar play in March last year and that they have essentially that whole team back - but they missed out on a big opportunity here.  After beating Stanford in round 1 they lost to both UNLV and Oklahoma State in the next two rounds, and neither game was close.  With their earlier loss to Ole Miss and nothing really left on the schedule outside of the Ohio Valley conference games their hopes at an at-large disappeared this weekend.
Also of note: Virginia Tech 56, Oklahoma State 51.  The Hokies have missed the tournament the past two years due to weak non-conference scheduling and a lack of quality out-of-conference wins.  This at least gives them one good victory - more than they had either of the last two years.

CHICAGO INVITATIONAL CHALLENGE
Championship:  Richmond Spiders over Purdue Boilermakers
Biggest positive:  Richmond.  The Spiders were supposed to be at the top of the Atlantic-10 this year and were considered a very likely NCAA Tournament team.  An early loss to Iona, however, had experts like me questioning if this was just another in a long line of A-10 "sleepers" who were actually not very good.  This win over Purdue helps put some of that unease to rest.  
Biggest negative:  Purdue.  No surprise here, this was set-up as basically a coronation for Purdue, but Richmond spoiled that, and that's not good for the Boilers.
Also of note:  Wright State 82, Oakland 79.  Oakland (which is in Michigan) is supposed to be a mid-major sleeper due to the presence of seven-footer Keith Benson, but if you can't even beat Wright State...I mean, come on.

LEGENDS CLASSIC
Championship:  Syracuse Orange over Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Biggest positive:  Georgia Tech.  They aren't going to make the NCAA tournament or anything, but the Yellow Jackets needed some positives after losing to lowly Kennesaw State early this year and looking like they might be nothing more than a big joke this season.  Blowing out Albany and Niagara in the early rounds, beating UTEP in the semis, and then losing to the Cuse by just four in the final is a step in the right direction.
Biggest negative:  Michigan Wolverines.  Michigan started the year playing well, beating up on the cupcakes and then even hung tough with Syracuse in the semis, leading for most of the game before losing by just four.  Unfortunately, instead of still salvaging something they ended up losing to UTEP in the third place game instead.
Also of note:  Detroit Titans.  There was a second, consolation regional held in Michigan, and Detroit won it by beating Albany, Bowling Green, and Niagara in consecutive days.  Even if it's not exactly a murderer's row of opponents it's still a nice little run and was highlighted by former Indiana Hoosier Eli Holman who put up a double-double in each game.  Detroit is a nice little sleeper in the Horizon.

LAS VEGAS INVITATIONAL
Championship:  Kansas Jayhawks over Arizona Wildcats
Biggest positive:  Kansas.  The Jayhawks stomped MAC favorite Ohio, easily handled a very good Arizona team, now rank sixth in the polls and first according to Ken Pomeroy's tempo-free stats (www.kenpom.com).  And they've done all this without the services of their top recruit Josh Selby.  When he finally starts playing this team is an instant title contender.  Of course, some times a high profile freshman disrupts chemistry to a point where the team gets worse, so let's hope for a little Kris Humphries/Stephon Marbury from Selby.
Biggest negative:  Nobody, really.  Everybody finished where they should, the good teams stomped the bad, and nobody's play stood out as exceptionally poor.  If you had to pick one negative, go with Ohio.  Last year's upset winner over Georgetown in the first round of the tournament was picked to win their conference again, and losing by 57 to Kansas is certainly not what they had in mind. 
Also of note:  Solomon Hill.  Arizona has one of the best player's in the country in Derrick Williams, but he can't do it himself.  If Hill can play like he did against Santa Clara (20 pts) rather than how he did against Kansas (9 pts) more often, Arizona will have a much better chance of getting back to the NCAA Tournament.

GREAT ALASKA SHOOTOUT
Championship:  St. Johns Red Storm over Arizona State Sun Devils
Biggest positive:  St. Johns, my Big East sleeper pick, started the season questionably enough, losing to St. Mary's, but handled themselves nicely in Alaska by going 3-0.  With no other possible NCAA Tournament teams in this field, the Red Storm basically had to win this tournament.  And they did. 
Biggest negative:  Ball State.  Not that Ball State is supposed to be anything (it's been a long time since Theron Smith), but it's never good to lose to non-Division I squad, and the Cardinals were dropped by the host Alaska-Anchorage, and in embarrassing fashion, 62-44.
Also of note:  Weber State 82, Drake 81.  Weber State won't be an at-large NCAA team, but they are considered the favorites to come out of the Big Sky, and taking third place in Alaska is a solid outing for this team.  Plus Mrs. W went to Weber State for a year and I visit Ogden almost yearly, so it's always nice to give them a little pub.


And that should pretty well cover it.  There were a few others, but really nobody cares who wins the Cancun Challenge or the Philly Hoop Group Classic because the teams involved are irrelevant, and I think I've typed just about enough for one evening.  There are a bunch more of these tournaments coming up around Christmas-time, including a couple involving Big Ten representation (Northwestern in the MSG Holiday Festival and Indiana in the Las Vegas Classic) so I might recap them after the holidays.  By then I'm pretty sure there will be nothing left to care about as far as the Gophers are concerned.  That team is absolute garbage.

Pathetic Effort

Pathetic.  Pathetic pathetic pathetic.  I was actually considering just filling this entire post with that word, but then realized that word wasn't shameful enough.  Then I was going to do shameful, but that isn't strong enough either.  I was going to to check my thesaurus, but then I got lazy.  Also, there just isn't a word to describe that sad disgrace.

Seriously, even with a 10-point lead at the half you could see things weren't as they should be.  Oh, we all laughed, talked, bought concessions, laughed at the baton girl and Doogie's sweatpants, but we knew.  I remarked to one of my companions at the game (@Mpls_B) had been a pathetic effort, particularly on defense.  His reponse, "there's no reason they shouldn't be beating this team by 20 at half."  But shirley, there was no way they wouldn't blow this out by 20, right?

WELL WHEN YOU DON'T PLAY ANY GOD DAMN DEFENSE AND STAY IN A ZONE DESPITE YOUR OPPONENT HITTING EVERY THREE-POINTER THEY SHOOT (and it's the only, single, solitary thing they do well on offense) IT'S PRETTY GOD DAMN HARD TO WIN.

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I can't write about this.  This was reminiscent of the final Dan Monson year or the Kris Humphries year.  Let's try player-by-player, got to be some good there.

Trevor Mbakwe.  Aaah.  That feels better.  This guy is unreal good.  Nearly brought the team back in the final five minutes all by himself by getting offensive rebounds off the nearly infiite amount of  bricks they were chucking up there.  Love him.

Ralph Sampson.  Whatever time machine he found needs a new flux capacitor, because this was like switching out the cool, confident George McFly who punched out Biff with that nerdy dorky one from the beginning of the movie.  Virginia's Mike Scott is a tough, physical player, and after he bumped Ralph a couple of times he crumpled up into his shell like a koopa troopa.  This makes me super confident for Big Ten play.

Blake Hoffarber.  His numbers (and yes, Dawger, his fantasy points) look great, but he missed several open looks when the Gophers were trying to get a run going.  If he hits any one of those shots the comeback would have had a chance, but he missed when it counted.  Also basically refused to guard anybody running through a ball screen.  I think every first half point for Virginia came from the guy Hoffarber was guarding.

Maverick Ahanmisi.  A freshman point guard and not a particularly good one.  He's still better than I expected, but there's no way he should be playing significant minutes in important games right now. 

Austin Hollins.  I'm not even entirely sure he played.  The box score says he did, and says he nabbed three steals, but I'll be damned if I remember a single one of them. 

Devoe Joseph.  Awesome offensive machine in the first half, missed a couple of shots in the second and suddenly got tight, lost confidence and focus, and it was clang city.  And as much as I love him, there's no way he should be anywhere near running an offense.

Colt Iverson.  Got abused by Mike Scott like he was a national league team in 1986.  Brought some good energy on the offensive end, but energy don't score buckets. 

Mo Walker.  Gave them some good minutes in the second half, mainly because he tried.  Jesus christ that is a pathetic sentence.  God they sucked tonight.

Rodney Williams.  Was called "doubtful", then played five minutes, had a spectacular dunk, and re-injured himself.  Hopefully not seriously.

Chip Armelin.  A slower Rico Tucker, and I mean that in the good way.  A little out of control at times, but he at least gives you energy and effort and seems like the only guy who is always looking to score.  If he's not All Big 10 by his senior year I'll eat a donkey. 


Seriously, awful game.  It's easy to point at no Al Nolen and say that's the reason, and really this was such an awful game instead of scoffing like a scoffer and chalking that excuse up to homerism I'm actually considering it as legit.  And, since he's supposed to be out for "a few weeks" we might as well start ordering our NIT tickets now, kids.

When people call me "pessimistic" or "negative", there's a always a game like this around the corner to just prove the old axiom "never trust a Gopher team."

Preview: Minnesota Gophers vs. Virgina Cavaliers

Tonight your beloved Minnesota Golden Gophers basketball team will welcome the Virginia Cavaliers to Williams Arena for the opening match-up of the ACC/Big Ten Challenge.  A chance to get a quality win, you ask?  An opportunity to get a feel for how good the Gophers can be against a quality foe, you wonder? 

No.  Not at all.

Unfortunately, the way the match-ups fell gives the Gophers a sub-par opponent in the Cavs, a team that won just five conference games last year and saw it's best player booted due to academics, the starting point guard go down due to knee injury before the season started, and last year's top recruit transfer to Central Florida.  Tony Bennett has the program moving in the right direction, and next year's recruiting class is one of the better ones in the country, but this year this team is sort of, well, not good.

They are 3-3, and did manage a win over Oklahoma - but then that same Oklahoma team lost to Chaminade.  The good, or even mediocre, teams Virginia has played have all won handily (Wichita State by 12, Stanford by 19, and Washington by an absurd 43), and so should Minnesota. 

The biggest concern when it comes to defending Virginia is power forward Mike Scott, a bruising double-double machine (17 pts, 9 rebs per game this year) who has been basically doing the same thing for three years.  He's not a star, but he's an outstanding player, who is unfortunately been thrust into the "#1 option" role when he should probably be more of a complimentary player.  I say that because he is too easy to shut down at times, as shown by the 0 point/3 rebs, 0 point/1 reb, and 2 point/1 reb. lines he put up in ACC play last year.  He also has absolutely nothing playing next to him in the paint - the next five leading scorers are all guards, only one other post player averages more than 1.8 points per game, and that guy (Will Sherrill) is more of a perimeter guy, with 20 of his 28 field goal attempts on the year from behind the three point line.

So clearly this is a guard oriented team, and that's reflected in two of their strengths - they don't turn the ball over a ton (81st in the country) and they shoot well from three (39.4% - 46th in the country), and contrary to what you'd expect, they are excellent at keeping their opponents off the offensive boards (34th in the country).  Also contrary to what you would expect, they are absolutely god awful against the three-pointer, with their opponents shooting 46.6% on the year, 339th in the country - their are only 345 teams.  They are also no very good against 2-pointers, allowing 48.4% shooting and ranking 198th.  An efficient offensive team like the Gophers should be able to absolutely shred them.  Look for Hoff to hit about 8 three-pointers.

And that should be enough.  Hoff should have good looks from three most of the game, along with Devoe Joseph if he plays, and Sampson, Mbakwe and company should be able to find open spots in the paint all game.  I expect this to be similar to the Western Kentucky game in that the Gophers will probably shoot around 60% or so, although scoring will probably be down because Virginia plays a much slower game than WKU, and there should be fewer turnovers.  That kind of scoring efficiency is going to be touch for the Cavs to deal with, especially since their best player isn't a "carry the team" type and should be bracketed by the Gophers' bigs fairly effectively.  The one danger is that Virginia gets ridiculously hot from three - and they can. 

The Cavs shot over 45% from three twice this year, and guards Billy Baron (brother of former Rhode Island sharp shooter Jimmy), Joe Harris, and Mustapha Farrakhan as well as Sherrill have all hit at least three three-pointers in a single game.  If multiple guys are hot tonight, and it's possible given that the Gophers are thoroughly average at defending the three, there does exist a non-zero possibility of an upset.  Ken Pomeroy gives Virginia a 12% chance of winning.  I'd put it at more like 4%.

Minnesota 75, Virginia 60 

Big Ten Power Poll 11.23.2010

Here is my ballot for this week's Big 10 Power Poll, which you can find over on Myron Medcalf's blog on startribune.com each week.  Last week's is here.


1.  Ohio State Buckeyes.  That win over Florida last week is still the best win of any Big Ten team, and the 19-point win over Morehead State is nice as well.  Plus, have you seen these guys play?  Yikes.

2.  Minnesota Gophers.  North Carolina's loss to Vanderbilt took a little of the luster off the Gophers win, but the weekend in Puerto Rico served notice to the Big Ten that Minnesota is a contender with five wins over possible tournament teams already.  Even in the traditionally physical Big Ten, I'm not sure who can deal with the size and skill combination the Gophers can bring.

3.  Illinois Fighting Illini.  Nothing wrong with a third-place finish in the Coaches vs. Cancer classic, especially when your win is over Maryland and your loss was to Texas in OT.  If one of the trio of wings emerges (Brandon Paul, Jereme Richmond, DJ Richardson) they're going to be lethal.

4.  Purdue Boilermakers.   While most of the rest of the Big Ten contenders are playing in high quality tournaments against NCAA Tournament caliber competition, Purdue played Austin Peay in the Chicago Invitational Challenge.  What ever happened to challenging yourself when you think you're a national title contender?  I should knock them down another couple of spots on general principle.

5.  Michigan State Spartans.  Struggling against Chaminade and losing to UCONN in Maui shows that the Spartans aren't bulletproof, particularly since they lost to UCONN in late game meltdown fashion.  Talentwise they're still in the top 2, but results-wise they're closer to the middle; although there's little doubt Izzo will have them back at the top soon enough.

6.  Wisconsin Badgers.  Wisconsin's loss to UNLV over the weekend wasn't necessarily unexpected - on the road against a probably NCAA Tournament team - but it does drop them to the bottom of the contenders list.  They have a great opportunity to build their resume over Thanksgiving at the Old Spice Classic because they should be one of the two best teams in the field (along with Temple).

7.  Michigan Wolverines.  Bumping Michigan to the top of the lower tier this week, because even though they haven't played a quality opponent they have taken care of business with an average margin of victory of 24 points in their three games.  Tim Hardaway Jr. and Darius Morris are starting to look like a dynamic back court; it'll be interesting to see how they do against Syracuse on Friday.

8.  Northwestern Wildcats.  Still haven't played anybody, and haven't looked all that impressive in their wins over cupcakes, struggling to a win over Texas-Pan American.  With their horrid non-conference schedule, the Wildcats' margin for error is razor thin.

9.  Indiana Hoosiers.  They're beating up on bad teams, which is an improvement from last year at least.  Maurice Creek hasn't been the same player he was last year before he got hurt, but his 19 point outburst against Evansville is a sign that he may still get back to that level.

10.  Penn State Nittany Lions.  Yet another team that hasn't played anybody, and even with that soft schedule they don't have a 20-point win.  On the bright side, it's looking like Penn State might have a breakout star (and some help for Talor Battle) in forward Jeff Brooks, who's averaging 17 points a game after putting up just 7.4 last year.

11.  Iowa Hawkeyes.  When I saw Iowa beat Alabama, a supposed tournament team this year, I thought I was going to have to move them up.  Then the Tide lost to a terrible terrible terrible St. Peter's team, Iowa lost to Dan Monson and Long Beach, and everything suddenly made sense.  Even with Gatens back, this is a very poor Iowa squad.


Upcoming this week:

Michigan State will play in the third place game at the Maui Invitational against the loser of Washington and Kentucky.  That's still an opportunity to get a high quality win, and for the Spartans to reassert themselves as a final four contender.  A 1-2 trip isn't disastrous, but would be a huge disappointment.

Another tournament goer is Wisconsin, who travels to Orlando for the Old Spice Classic.  There are bunch of middling teams involved this year, and Wisconsin and Temple should end up the class of tournament, but wins over most of the other teams (Cal, Georgia, Notre Dame, and Texas A&M in particular) are going to be good wins come March.  Big opportunity for the Badgers here.

Basically only three other games of note the rest of the week:  Michigan will play Syracuse in New Jersey, Penn State will play at Ole Miss, and Northwestern welcomes Creighton to Evanston.  For the Wildcats it's their first opponent worth a damn, while Penn State needs wins of that caliber if they want to grab an NCAA bid, and for the Wolverines we get to find out if they're any good. 

I'm gonna say no.