Hoops Preview: Gophers vs. Syracuse

The beginning of the season, and the Richard Pitino Era, couldn't have gotten off to a much better start with the Gophers sitting at 5-0.  They've beaten up the cupcakes, survived a tough road game against a decent opponent, and proved good enough to battle a better than expected Coastal Carolina game and come out with a victory.  Now things get really interested, before getting super boring, as they head out to Maui to take on some very good opponents, starting with Syracuse.

As Pitino said in his press conference - you know what you're going to get from Boeheim and the Orange, and that's not a knock on them.  The first thing you have to worry about is that pesky 2-3 zone, and this year might be it's best iteration.  Syracuse can trot out five guys who are 6-7 or bigger to play it if they choose and they won't lose anything offensively because Michael Gbinje (transfer from Duke) can play the point.  Usually, however, they'll only have four of these guys and then another guard, either Tyler Ennis (6-4) or Trevor Cooney (also 6-4).  All this height and length means they not only can shut down a whole lot of passing lanes, but it also cuts down on the amount of the floor smaller guards (GULP!) can actually see, so one of the best ways to beat a zone, a skip pass, becomes close to impossible.  It also means if you're going to try to kill the zone with 3-point shooting, you'll need to create that much extra room in order to get a shot off.  In short, running this kind of zone with these kind of athletes with this kind of size under a coach who's been teaching it for like 60 years is pretty unfair.

What that combination has resulted in this season is a team that, well, is pretty much what you'd expect: they're creating a ton of turnovers (27% of opponent's possessions end in a turnover, 5th in the country) with a ton of steals (18%, 1st in country) and blocks (21%, 7th) and controlling the boards on both ends (8th in offensive rebounding, 21st in defensive).  Syracuse sports four players in the top 200 in steal percentage with two in the top 175 for blocked shot % (and another at 407).  This is a tough, tough defense to crack, but luckily there's one big weakness so far this year and it's one that plays into what the Gophers need to do to win this game - three point shooting.

Although there's some debate as to whether how much three point shooting is controlled by the defense given that there's very little correlation from year-to-year, especially compared to other statistics, but Syracuse's opponents have shot 37% this year, ranking the Orange D 253rd in the country, and you don't end up with that kind of ranking unless you're giving up open shots.  The Gophers have done a tremendous job of taking care of the ball this year (20th in the nation in turnover %) so if they can continue to do so and use ball penetration and quick passing (whoever plays the high post is going to be very important in this game) to get some open looks and get hot, that's going to be huge for the Gophers to pull it off.

Offensively, the Orange have actually been pretty crappy.  They're shooting the ball like hell so far and can't make free throws, but they take care of it pretty well and make up for all those misses by crashing the glass really well - not too far off what you'd expect from a young but very tall and athletic team with a freshman point guard.  With the departure of three major pieces from last year's team (Brandon Triche, Michael Carter-Williams, and James Southerland) C.J. Fair has tried to step in as the go to scorer, and although his stats are up (14.5 ppg to 18.0 ppg) his efficiency is down (more shots, lower percentage going in).  Same story with Jerami Grant, and with the freshman Ennis really struggling to shoot (29% from the floor) and their high field goal percentage inside guys (DaJuan Coleman and Rakeem Christmas) not getting/taking a lot of shots they've struggled for reliable scoring.

Syracuse was one of my top 10 teams coming into the season, and despite a struggle against St. Francis (NY) I'm not sure there's really any need to revise that.  Although I've been impressed by the Gophers so far and I'm starting to think they're better than I initially thought, going up against a team this talented and this big is too much in my opinion.  The Gophers could end up winning by getting hot and hitting a bunch of threes, and I've reached a point now where a win here actually wouldn't surprise me, but I think Syracuse is too big for a team with small guards and little to no depth in the paint.  Hopefully I'm wrong, but as long as the Gophers can go 2-1 I'll call this a very successful tournament.

Syracuse 70, Minnesota 63.

Gopher 2013-2014 Basketball Schedule Revealed

The Gopher hoop non-conference schedule was revealed Tuesday.  And here it is.  Rankings are from last year.

11/8 vs. LEHIGH  (RPI 107, kenpom 96):  A possible top 100 team is always a solid way to kick-off the new year, however the Gophers are a year too late.  The players responsible for that awesome Lehigh win over Duke in the NCAA Tournament two years ago have graduated, with C.J. McCollum in the NBA and Gabe Knutson probably like, filing taxes or something since Lehigh is a nerd school.  Nerds and wrestling I think.  Definitely not basketball. 

11/12 vs. MONTANA (RPI 74, kenpom 160): Hey an NCAA Tournament team last year!  Let's rock and roll!  Actually the Grizzlies have a nice little program going with back-to-back Big Sky Championships and despite losing two of their top three scorers Montana is the most likely non-conference home opponent to end up in the NCAA Tournament this season.  Yes, that is correct.  I'm serious.  No you shut up.

11/16 @ RICHMOND (RPI 91, kenpom 83):  The back half of a home-and-home started by Tubby Smith, Richard Pitino honored the commitment so the Gopher will face the Spiders in their only true home game of the non-conference schedule.  Richmond brings back three starters from last year's totally mediocre team, and not only might this be a road game but is likely to be the toughest Gopher opponent this year outside of the Maui Invitational.  Richmond plays at a pretty slow pace under Chris Mooney so I really like this one as a test to see if the Gophers can impose their will and influence tempo in a tough environment.  Could be a pretty good barometer for the entire season, although I believe it's pronounced thermometer. 

11/19 vs. COASTAL CAROLINA (RPI 259, kenpom 226):  Not really the Gophers' fault they got stuck with these guys as their "first round mainland opponent" in the Maui Invitational, but they weren't good last year and lost their starting back court so I'm guessing they aren't going to be good this year either.  On the bright side, you can count on at least one member of the Twin Cities' sports media to bust out an article about what a Chanticleer is (besides tasty, terrific pizza).  I predict Reusse, especially if the Gophers lose the previous game at Richmond.  He loves that condescending shit, too bad he doesn't do it well.

11/21 vs. WOFFORD (RPI 250, kenpom 256):  Wofford has really fallen off since the great Noah Dahlman brought the Terriers to back-to-back NCAA Tournaments (and near wins against Wisconsin and BYU), but at least they are bringing some firepower back from last year's terrible team.  Plus they got a guy named Indiana Faithfull which is pretty fricking crazy.

11/25 vs. SYRACUSE (RPI 14,  in Maui, kenpom 8):  The jewel of the schedule without a doubt, because Syracuse should be in the mix to be a top 10 team again this year.  Also, earlier when I wrote about this match-up I mentioned it would be the great back court of the Gophers vs. the great front court of Syracuse, but it turns out I forgot about Michael Gbinije.  He's a combo guard who transferred to the Orange after one year at Duke.  He was the #29 recruit in the country coming out of high school.  He's also 6-7 and should play at the top of the most wing-spanny zone I've ever seen, which could have all five guys at 6-7 or taller at times.  As that weird creepy witch said in the Robin Hood with Kevin Costner, "We're doomed."

11/26 vs. ARKANSAS (RPI 95/kenpom 71)(CAL (RPI 54/kenpom 56) in Maui:  Cal should be the better match-up here with both teams saw their top player leave school early to enter the NBA Draft (Cal = Allen Crabbe, first round pick; Arkansas = B.J. Young, undrafted - ha ha!) because Cal brings back Justin Cobbs (back in more ways than one) and most of their team from last year while Arkansas also loses Marshawn Powell, the team's second leading scorer, who left the team to go play in Europe or something.  This will either be an addition by subtraction year for Arkansas or subtraction by subtraction and probably that second one.  Hope for Cal.

11/27 vs. Team 3 in Maui, anywhere from Gonzaga (RPI 6/kenpom 4) to Chaminade (not in D-I):  Other options are Baylor (RPI 70/kenpom 26) and Dayton (RPI 114/kenpom 67).  Obviously the better the opponent the better the potential results, but seeing as how it's not a random draw for each game you need to win to continue getting quality opponents.  Syracuse will be tough, but losing to them and then beating Cal and Baylor or something would still be an outstanding result.  Most likely results are a loss in round 1 and then a win over both Arkansas and Dayton.  Not bad, but not great.  Like a night with your mom.

12/3 vs. FLORIDA STATE (RPI 84/kenpom 124):  Andrew Wiggins screwed up everything by choosing Kansas over the Seminoles and now this game is more yawn than not yawn.  Last year was one of the worst year's these guys have had under Leonard Hamilton, and with Michael Snaer gone the question is if they'll be worse.  Most the rest of the team is back and guys like Okaro White and Terrance Shannon could certainly take a leap, and there's a nice freshman coming in but Snaer was the do-everything team leader type that's tough to replace.  Although given how little that mattered last season maybe it turns out chemistry is overrated after all.  Don't tell Gardy. 

12/7 vs. NEW ORLEANS (RPI 346/kenpom 346):  Now things get really, really ugly.  You could probably talk yourself into the schedule so far, but these last four games are just nasty, starting with the worst of the worst in the Privateers and yes I had to look that up.  They're also in the Southland starting this year after being independent (looked that up) after they used to be D-I but somehow dropped back into D-II or something like that and then got reinstated (remembering this on my own).  Should be a fun game though for the first half at least since they're one of the most uptempo teams in the nation.  I got news for you though.  Ervin Johnson isn't walking through that door. 

12/10 vs. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (RPI 62/kenpom 103):  I'm sure everyone is thrilled again because for some reason people love the stupid little teams from the Dakotas, but guess what?  With Nate Wolters off to the NBA maybe SDSU just becomes a shitty little shithead team again.  Remember when the Gophers played them last year without Wolters?  Yeah it'll be like that again but probably worse because Jordan Dykstra probably still hasn't cut his hair.  I don't know what he's waiting for.  There is good news, however.  According to their website there are ZERO Minnesota natives on the roster this year.  So shut it already.

12/20 vs. NEBRASKA-OMAHA (RPI 285/kenpom 321):  I think they've been a D-I team for like 2 years, which is usually a pretty bad sign.  They kind of give the appearance of maybe being slightly interesting because 6 of their top 7 scorers from last season should be back.  The first college hockey game I ever went to was UMD vs. Nebraska-Omaha.  Their nickname is the Mavericks and they abbreviate their team NEOM.  The college World Series is still in Omaha.  I once had alligator in Omaha (not making that up...might have been Lincoln).  I'm just writing random facts now.  I once spent a night getting drunk in a hotel in Nebraska by myself.  Here is what I wrote that night.  Gripping.

12/28 vs.  TEXAS A&M CORPUS CHRISTI (RPI 323/kenpom 309):  Remember when these guys made the NCAA Tournament somehow and threw a little teeny tiny scare into Wisconsin before losing?  Man that would have been awesome if they one, am I right?  Since then they've had as many seasons with single-digit wins as double-digit, and I don't want to throw too many fancy stats at you or anything but not even winning 10 games in a season is a pretty good indicator of sucking and TAMUCC has back-to-back years with 6 total wins.  I was going to try to find something good to say but I need to get a drink so let's just wrap this up.


The key to a good schedule is lots of games against teams in the 50-150 range and avoiding playing teams that are sub 200 and especially sub-300.  The Gophers likely will have six or seven games against 200+ teams and might have three against teams in the top 100.  A strong league can smooth that out but you have to, you know, win the games.  It was always going to be an interesting season, but as Lewis Carroll once wrote, it's getting "interestinger and interestinger."

Gophers to play Syracuse in Maui Invitational

The Brackets were revealed for the Maui Invitational today, and your favorite team will play Syracuse in the first round, a game that is interesting not just because playing a team like the Orange is pretty sweet, but also because the rumored package deal of Isaiah Whitehead and Ja'Quan Newton is also considering the Cuse along with Minnesota.  WINNER TAKES ALL.

Interesting clash here, considering the Gophers are almost totally perimeter based right now thanks to the graduation of Mbakwe and Rodney Williams, while the Orange lost Brandon Triche, Michael Carter-Williams, and James Southerland and will be more reliant on inside play than ever with nearly every impact returnee an inside (or wing at best) player.  Of course, this being Jim Boeheim and Syracuse and they don't rebuild they just reload, they are bringing in ESPN's #5 point guard (#20 overall) in the country in Tyler Ennis as well as a couple forwards in the Top 100, which means the Cuse will have a huge size advantage over Minnesota but will be relying on a freshman point guard against a veteran laden opposing backcourt as well.

Speaking of point guards and dealing with some difficulties, the Gopher guards will have to contend with Syracuse's vaunted 2-3 zone.  The good news is Coach Pitino has experience in game planning for it from his days with Louisville.  The bad news is Syracuse's zone will likely be made up of Ennis and four guys who are at least 6-8 with wing spans that could probably cover the entire court end-to end.  The other good news, is without the guys who left Syracuse has almost no 3-point shooting unless one of the incoming freshmen is a marksman.  The other bad news, is I'm terrified of the Gopher guards going up against this zone, but that's from years of scarring after watching Monson and Tubby coached teams go up against zone defenses and collectively lose their shit.  Things should be different with Pitino at the helm.  Could be different.  Hopefully.  Please please please be different.

Anyway, this is a pretty sweet draw, and then in round two they will face either Arkansas or Cal, depending on win/lose.  I'm too tired to look it up, but I'm pretty sure Arkansas still sucks and Cal is a fringe NCAA team, so Cal would be the much better match-up but the Gophers would have to beat Cuse to get to them most likely.  Right now I'm not sure I see that happening, but hey, hooray for optimism.  Looking forward to it.


Elsewhere, brackets for a bunch of the other tournaments were announced as well.  Of note:

OLD SPICE CLASSIC (Big Ten rep: PURDUE):  The Boilers caught a rough draw in the first round in National Champion contender Oklahoma State (you heard it here first), especially much of the rest of this tournament is blah at best.  Outside of Memphis (and OK St) the best team might be LSU (who is supposed to be better this year) and that's an ugly tournament.  The good news for the Boilers is they should be able to run right through the loser's bracket to end up going 2-1.

VEGAS INVITATIONAL (Big Ten rep: NORTHWESTERN):  It's not a tournament because the matchups are already set between four teams (Northwestern, UCLA, Missouri, and Nevada) with UCLA and Missouri each playing Northwestern and Nevada.  Because we aren't getting that UCLA vs. Missouri match-up this is a super boring tournament invitational.

PUERTO RICO TIP-OFF (Big Ten rep: MICHIGAN):  Assuming the Wolverines can get past Long Beach, and they should, and VCU can get past FSU, and they should thank you very much Andrew Wiggins, that's a heck of a second round match-up.  After Michigan blew up everyone's bracket in dramatic fashion by blowing the doors off VCU last year, I'm interested to see how they handle havoc without either Burke or Hardaway.  Georgetown should come out the other side, now that Bruce Weber has another year under his belt at Kansas State and should begin dismantling everything Bob Huggins and Frank Martin built.

LEGENDS CLASSIC:  No Big Ten rep in this one, but notable because of Texas Tech and Tubby Smith's appearance.  The Red Raiders actually may be able to win their semifinal match-up (there are only 4 teams) against Pitt since the Panthers lost a ton off last year's team, but then they can expect to get their doors blown off by either Stanford or Houston.  Neither team is great, but Texas Tech is significantly worse than either.  Then again, Tubby has shown an aptitude for getting the most out of his teams in these early tournaments, so maybe his magic will work again.  Just watch out for February.

WOODEN LEGACY:  This is kind of a crappy tournament with teams like Fullerton and George Washington involved (and on the same side of the bracket for some reason) but there's probably enough intrigue to make this interesting considering how much people want to make sex to Doug McDermott of Creighton.  I'm most interested in seeing if Maurice Creek (transferred to GW) can make an impact or if those knees are 100% shot.

There's other tournaments too but they're mostly boring and holy crap did I ever just run out of steam.  Go to ESPN or whatever.  I'm done here.