Week in Review - 02.07.11

 Well that was pretty thoroughly depressing.  Ohio State completely controlled that game the whole way and, just in case you were starting to suffer from delusions of grandeur, reminded you that the Gophers are completely mediocre, and nothing more than first round fodder for a good team to take down.  Chip Armelin played his ass off and made me love him even more than I already do, Hoff always plays hard, and Mbakwe is still a beast, but god most of these guys drive me crazy.  Ralph had a good statistical game, but I swear he suffers from some sort of modified form of narcolepsy where instead of falling asleep he just falls into a general malaise, and I think Rodney Williams sometimes forgets he's actually playing a basketball game for real and isn't just messing around with some buddies at the gym.  And for a "tough guy" Iverson has periods where he's as soft as new born baby.

Terrible defense yesterday, too.  How many open layups and dunks did Ohio State get, my god.  And most of those were off of poor decisions or poor effort.  And did they really need to double-down every time anybody got the ball in the post?  Ohio State shoots way too well for that.  And why did Hoff disappear for about 8 minutes of game time in the middle of the second half?  I just don't get how this game unfolded.  Yeah, Ohio State is far more talented and just an overall better team, but the Gophers didn't even bother to put up a fight, and just gave the damn thing away.  I think the upside for this season has now shifted to a first round NCAA win.  Let's hope they can get that done.  And also maybe pick up a point guard from somewhere.

WHO WAS AWESOME

1.  Florida Gators.  Pretty much gotta be the team of the week, and for good reason.  If you can admit that Tennessee and the whole SEC West sucks then there are only three good teams in the conference:  Florida, Vanderbilt, and Kentucky.  And guess who Florida beat this week?  Yep, Vandy and Kentucky.  Both wins came at home, so it isn't an earth-shaking pair of victories, but it's always nice to assert yourself and win at home.  I still think Vandy is probably the best team in this conference, but I think Florida is probably better than Kentucky.  Those two chuckers they play at guard make me awfully nervous, but I think Chandler Parsons, though having the name of a rich gay guy, is the kind of all-around player who can step up and help carry a team in March.  Assuming they aren't completely shot out of the game those two chuckleheads.

2.  Arizona Wildcats.  Guess who's leading the Pac-10?  It's not Washington because they suck, but Arizona was able to take care of business this week, winning both games on their North California swing versus Stanford and Cal.  It's not really any great shakes beating either of those squads, especially when it takes you triple OT to beat the Bears, but they were able to win two road games, something those donkeys from Washington couldn't handle.  Derrick Williams is a really, really good player, but he doesn't have much help which means Zona is heading towards a nice first round exit come March.  But at least that first round exit will happen in the NCAAs, not the NIT.  Probably.

3.  Harrison Barnes.  He started as a well-publicized All-American as a freshman, quickly became the poster child for overhyped, overrated, freshmen who get too much press despite not having accomplished anything yet, but at this point he's finally starting to look like he might be getting it, and the Tar Heels are clicking.  Barnes helped lead UNC to a big road win over Boston College earlier this week, scoring 26 points on 9-16 shooting, and then followed that up with a nice 17 and 10 outing against Florida State - an excellent defensive squad (and those come after a 25-point night against NC State last week).  With him coming around and Kendall Marshall filling in nicely as the starting PG after Larry Drew's departure (he had 16 assists in that FSU game), the Heels are suddenly looking like a threat, and making the Gophers' March resume look better.  

4.  Wisconsin Badgers.  I don't much like to praise anything or anybody from, affiliated with, or who has heard of Wisconsin, but it's time to give credit to the Badgers who, after beating Purdue and then soundly thrashing Michigan State have laid out a pretty convincing case to be the #2 team in the conference.  Looking back at their record their three losses were on the road against a very hot and dangerous Penn State (except this weekend against Michigan, LOL), on a neutral court against a now top-10 Notre Dame, and in Vegas against UNLV - potentially all three NCAA teams, although it looks bleak for the Nittany Lions right now.  And all this with only two players who don't trip over their own feet at least three times a day.  Maybe Bo Ryan really is some kind of wizardly grinch.

5.  Syracuse Orange.  What's a damn good way to stop a four-game losing streak that followed an 18 game winning streak and included a home loss to Seton Hall?  How about going up to Storrs, Connecticut and beating the #7 team in the country in their own place?  Rick Jackson had another double-double (his 16th), but Scoop Jardine and Fab Melo still sucked, and then those two still sucked against South Florida on Saturday, even thought the Orange won.  So even though this entry is about how awesome Syracuse was, I'm also saying that unless Scoop remembers how to shoot or they get anything out of Melo, they aren't really a March threat. 


WHO SUCKED

1.  Washington Huskies.  Way to go, dingleberries.  The easiest road trip in the Pac-10 is to Oregon, where the Ducks and Beavers might be the second and third worst team in the conference (Ariz State is #1, hands down), so what does Warshington do on their trip this week?  Drop both games to fall out of first place, losing by 13 to Oregon State and 5 to the regular Oregon.  Special shout out to Isaiah Thomas, who shot 2-11 with 7 turnovers against State, practically giving the game away single-handedly.  Maybe he's the one who's point-shaving?  With five home games left and just two roadies (the Arizona trip) their still in good shape, if not to overtake Arizona at least to grab an at large bid in March thankfully, because there's not much that's more fun than watching Washington circus ball. 

2.  Michigan State Spartans.  What else is there left to write?  They lost to Iowa by 20, and then got smoked by Wisconsin by almost 30.  I don't know what you call it when you fall further than rock bottom, but whatever it is that's where you'd find Sparty right now.  I can't imagine being a fan of there's right now, must be brutally frustrating.

3.  Demetri McCamey.  You guys know this guy sucks, right?  I know his overall numbers for the season look good, but in his last seven games he's shot 20 for 69, turned it over 22 times, and basically kicked away the game a handful of times.  I can't get over it, and mostly I can't get over how at the end of the Indiana game they used Brandon Paul to run their offense instead of their "point" guard.  I am going to be everything I own against them in March.

4.  Baylor Bears.  Seriously?  I mean seriously?  An elite 8 team last year that brought in one of the best freshmen in the country, and you can't even beat Oklahoma or manage a better than .500 record in the Big 12, which has like, 3 good teams?  Iowa State's only conference victory is over Baylor, and they haven't beaten anybody with a pulse this entire year, generally preferring to not even compete.  Damn it, this team was set up for a very successful season.  They only player they lost was Tweety Carter, and he can't mean anything since the only person nicknamed Tweety who every mattered at all was this chick from my high school who got her nipple pierced and then let me see it.  Just so frustrating.  I thought getting them at 30-1 to win the whole thing was a steal.  Turns out, 30-1 to make the tournament at all might have been poor odds.  And yes I know they helped themselves out with a nice win over A&M on Saturday, but I already wrote all that so it stays.

5.  Texas A&M Aggies.  Speaking of A&M, they did a hell of a job of making sure nobody would make the mistake of thinking they were an elite team ever again.  They were ranked 10th before losing at Nebraska last week, but had a couple of big home games this week that could have helped to cancel that one out.  First they had a huge chance to make a statement with a home game against #3 Texas, but apparently couldn't get up for their hated rival and got blown out 69-49, helped out by their stud Khris Middleton going 0-9 from the floor.  Then they followed that up by losing, again at home, to the basically worthless Baylor Bears.  Just an ugly week, and now they go on the road to Texas Tech and Colorado, games they should win, but then again this could be the beginning of their shame spiral.  Not too dissimilar to the Gophers actually.


Pretty good little Super Bowl, too.  Even though I hate Wisconsin and everything in it, this version of the Packers is easily the least offensive I can ever remember, so their win doesn't kill me inside like it did last time they won.  The only Packer I really hate now is A.J. Hawk, who completely sucks at football but saw how good Clay Matthews is and decided to copy his girlie hair so instead of pointing out how bad he was, maybe people who start referring to them as a tandem and Matthews could save his career.  And it worked.  Way to go, girl.

No, it didn't bug me that they won, and it was a pretty good and entertaining game that I made a little money on (for the second year in a row I lost my game bet but more than made up for it on props - Orange Gatorade, baby!), so I'm pretty satisfied with that part.  The overall production though?  Oof.  The halftime show was completely brutal and other than the Darth Vader commercial overall they were pretty lame, but the worst part of the night was by far how this:

has somehow morphed into Cyndi Lauper.  Seriously, her transition from dream girl to no thank you is nearly complete.  Won't someone step in to prevent this national tragedy?

Game Preview: Minnesota Gophers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes

Not much has changed for Ohio State since my last preview.  They've still got 0 losses, they still have a variety of weapons they can use to kill you, and Jared Sullinger is still a beast.  Maybe the biggest change is their little PG, Aaron Craft, has gone from after-throught to bonafide stud on both ends of the court.  So they're probably even better this time around.  Joy.

There is hope, however, because they just seem ripe to be upset.  For whatever reason they generally don't blow teams out, and let teams that are inferior to them hang around most of the game.  It hasn't hurt them yet, but it's been close.  Add in their close, down-to-wire wins they've had on the road, including games against Northwestern (without Shurna), Illinois, Iowa, and Michigan, and this game could be had by a good Gopher team.

But are they good?  Frankly, I don't know.  It's hard to get a handle on them post-Nolen, whether they're the team that looked so good and fluid against Michigan and Northwestern, or the team that struggled to run an offense against Purdue and Indiana.  Personally, I think it's closer to the latter, and Ohio State not only has a variety of defenders they can put on Hoffarber and force the offense to start too far out, too far on the wing, and with the wrong person, but they also have the size to negate the 3-big attack Minnesota can trot out, and that's even assuming someone can get them the ball.

No, this one's not going to be close.  The Gophers just need to concentrate on winning their remaining home games and beating one of Penn State, Iowa, or Northwestern on the road.  Do that, and they're comfortably in the tournament no matter what happens in the Big Ten tourney.  Lose all your road games or drop a home game, and things are more interesting, by which I mean less interesting and more painful.

Lastly, word out of North Carolina is Larry Drew II has left the Heels, and I say Tubby goes and gets him.  Yes, he'd have to sit out a year and yes, he'd only have one year of eligibility left and yes, he was a bit of a disappointment at UNC, but this ain't North Carolina and I don't see anything resembling a point guard coming on the horizon.  Two reasons to believe it's possible and they're both the same:  his dad is the coach of the Atlanta Hawks.  NBA connection to Tubby.  Atlanta connection to Tubby.  Believe it.

And don't worry about Sunday's game.  It won't be close.

Ohio State 107, Gophers 54.

Relax, Nerds.

Ok, raise your hand if you thought the Gophers were going to get through this entire Big Ten schedule without dropping a road game they had no business losing, especially with Al Nolen out?  Are you raising your hand right now?  If you are, now drop that hand and smack yourself in the cubes because you are a retard. 

There was plenty to worry about tonight and maybe it's the beer talking but my plan is to just let this game slide.  The Gophers are still in good shape to get a bid, the emergence of Austin Hollins tonight can't be seen as anything except a huge positive, and if they hadn't completely embarrassed themselves at the free throw line they walk out of Bloomington with a win.  Sunshine and lollipops?  Sure.  Puppy dogs and ice cream?  Yeah, why not. 

I'm just not ready to freak out yet.  Usually the Gophers lose three or four of these games per year, and this is their first one (second if you want to count Virginia).  After they get smoked by Ohio State on Sunday they'll have a losing Big Ten record, but they'll be set up for a 10-8 conference record, and with their non-conference results they'll get in as a 7 seed and lose to VCU.

Toss the confetti.

Game Preview: Minnesota Gophers vs. Indiana Hoosiers

Once again, rather than rehashing everything I wrote in the previous game vs. Indiana's preview (which you can peruse at your leisure right here), I'm going to just focus on some things that have changed since the last time these two teams met, a hard fought 67-63 Gopher win here in Minneapolis.

1)  So, like, is Indiana good now?  Let's not get crazy.  Despite the win over Illinois (vastly overrated) and pushing Michigan State to overtime (vastlier overrated), this still isn't a very good team, but there's no doubt they're are pesky, plucky, gritty, and very David Eckstein-y.  On top of that, they have actually developed one of the better offenses (efficiency wise) in the country, ranking at #41 in the country in that metric, although that's still 8th in the Big Ten.  The nearly all white guy Hoosiers are an excellent shooting team, knocking down 38.4% of their threes (37th) and 52.6% of their twos (29th) and any team that has the ability to shoot like that can be dangerous on any given night.

2)  What's up with this Jordan Hulls cat?  He's slowly developing into a hell of a point guard.  With Maurice Creek slowed and now out with that knee injury and Verdell Jones banged up as well, somebody had to step up and help out Christian Watford, and Hulls answered the call.  After scoring in double figures in just 5 of the team's first 12 games, he's now hit that mark in 10 of the last 11, and scored 17 and 18 in those two big games against the Illini and Spartans.  He can get loose from three (49% this year), but one of his biggest strength is putting the ball on the floor and getting into the lane.  I'm not so worried about Watford, because he does the majority of his damage inside and the Gopher bigs held him down in Minneapolis, but I'm very concerned about who checks Hulls with Nolen out.  That will probably decide this matchup. 

3)  Can the Hoosiers follow Purdue's blueprint to slowing the Gopher offense?  Purdue held the Gophers to their second-lowest point total of the season (and Wisconsin shouldn't count) and one of the main ways they did it was staying up in Hoffarber's face and making it very difficult to get the offense started anywhere near where it should, leaving Blake to pass off to the wing further out than they'd like.  I'd love to say this was an anomaly due to a great defender, but Purdue used Ryne freaking Smith.  With Hoff's (god love 'em) inability to drive past his defender, Indiana won't need a lightning quick defender to replicate this success.  All they'll need is a pesky, annoying white dude, and that is something their is no shortage of in Bloomington.

4)  So are we screwed without Al Nolen then?  If you remember back to the last time these teams played, the Gophers fell behind and were only able to come back and grab the win due to some incredible play from Nolen, causing me to write this love missive (which is probably more romantic than anything I've ever said to Mrs. W, sadly).  The way he brought the team back was simple enough:  getting passed his man and into the lane, then either scoring or finding an open teammate; simple enough for him, I should say.  Since the Gophers currently lack any player with the capacity to do that, other than maybe Chip Armelin whose ball-handling is too suspect, I'd say this doesn't bode well for them. 

5)  Is this a must win, and can they do it?  I wouldn't say it is a must win, because I think I'd actually be more impressed with a win than disheartened by a loss, but it is the kind of game that can help put a more accurate label on this team.  Road wins are always hard to come by in the Big Ten, and kenpom.com predicts that although the Gophers win it will be by a mere point, so you can expect a hard fought game.  I still believe that the three-big lineup is a huge weapon, and one that could potentially destroy Indiana (along with many other teams), but the Purdue game reminded me that it doesn't matter how good your big guys are, somebody has to get them the ball.

Indiana 66, Gophers 60

6)  Wait, after you wrote all this you just saw the news that Christian Watford is out for an indefinite period with a wrist injury.  Doesn't this change everything you wrote?  Yes.  Yes it does.  Now they're whiter, pluckier, and nearly devoid of any talent.

Gophers 70, Indiana 58

And finally, my Big Ten Power Poll for the week:

1)  Ohio State Buckeyes.  Not only the best team in the conference, but the best team in the country.

2)  Wisconsin Badgers.  No big surprise they were able to beat Purdue at home, but it was impressive the way they were able to come back with a minute left after squandering a 6-point lead late.  Who could have guessed Ryan Evans would be the guy who hit the biggest shot of the game? 

3)  Purdue Boilermakers.  They look good and definitely pass the eye test, but I can't really get on board until they manage a really good win.  Their two best victories are home wins over Michigan State and Minnesota - not the most impressive resume. 

4)  Minnesota Gophers.  Whether they are merely an NCAA Tournament team or an NCAA Tournament team that can do some damage depends on the success of the 3-big lineup, Blake's ability to handle the point, and the development of some freshman (and if Rodney Williams can step up an offer some consistent scoring).  That's probably too many ifs for this team to make a significant March run.

5)  Illinois Fighting Illini.  Most overrated team in America. 

6)  Penn State Nittany Lions.  Jeff Brooks went down with a shoulder injury last night and Penn State needed either Andrew Jones or David Jackson to step up to give them an inside presence if they were going to compete with Illinois - neither could do it.  If Brooks is out for any kind of extended period of time, even more than 1 game, kiss that long shot NCAA bid good-bye.

7)  Michigan State Spartans.  Most underachieving team in the country, or just that overrated?  Watching them try to play defense, I'm starting to lean towards the latter.  Something has to change, and in a hurry, or you're looking at an NIT team.  If anybody can figure this out, it's Izzo.

8)  Northwestern Wildcats.  The only thing keeping them this high is that they've beaten the three teams below them.  What a disappointing season for them.

9)  Michigan Wolverines.  Two game win streak is a nice start towards turning the ship around.  With a lot of youth on board - there isn't a single senior on the roster - they could be setting themselves up to be a nice sleeper team next year.

10)  Indiana Hoosiers.  The big win over Illinois finally gives Crean something to build on, but did the choke away of a second one (at Mich State) deflate the momentum?  If that didn't do it, the injury to Watford probably did - that's a killer.

11)  Iowa Hawkeyes.  The signs of life out of Indiana and Michigan doom Iowa to the basement

Week in Review 1.31.2011

 Can somebody please explain to me what is going in college basketball this year?  Michigan State, a final four team last year that lost nothing more than Raymar Morgan and replaced him with more talent, is in danger of missing the NCAA Tournament and lost to Michigan for the first time in 23 years, and at home.  Which was Michigan's first road win all year.   Syracuse, who started the season at 18-0, has now lost four straight, which included losses to two other top 10 teams in Pitt and Villanova.  Teams who both lost this week - Villanova twice.  Duke, who looked nearly unstoppable most of the year, lost to St. Johns, the same team that lost to both St. Bonaventure and Fordham.  BYU gave San Diego State it's first loss on the year, and then turned around and got beat by New Mexico, Texas A&M lost to lowly Nebraska, and UCONN completely blew a home game they had in hand against Louisville.  Two of the top five, 3 of the top 10, and 5 of the top 15 teams in the preseason poll aren't even ranked right now.  It's insane.  I know it's great for a fun season and an even better NCAA Tournament, but it's been hell on my bank account so let's just knock this crap off.


WHO WAS AWESOME

1.  St. Johns Red Storm.   If ever a team could have used a win like this it's St. Johns, and beating Duke by 15 is an awfully nice chip to have in your pocket when March rolls around.  They're in good shape RPI-wise thanks to a very tough strength of schedule, and a 4-5 Big East is probably ok, but this game gives them a huge marquee win and stops a three-game skid, not to mention the shot of confidence they probably get considering they just completely blew the doors off the Blue Devils.  The schedule gets easier going forward here, so you can expect to see the Red Storm with a bid for the NCAA Tournament.  Which is what I called, way back in October.  Seriously, sometimes it's hard being so smart.

2.  Penn State Nittany Lions. You gotta admit, they're doing what they can.  It's an uphill climb considering they're just 12-8 and missed every chance to get a quality non-conference win, but they're now 5-4 in a good Big Ten, the RPI is moving up (now #45), the strength of schedule is good (#6), the win over Duquesne is looking better and better, and, even if Michigan State is free-falling, the wins over Illinois and Wisconsin will hold up nicely.  Talor Battle is getting help from PSU's trio of senior forwards - David Jackson, Andrew Jones, and especially Jeff Brooks - and that makes this team very dangerous.  Their home court advantage has been quite strong this year, if they can steal a game or two on the road they'll be in the big dance.

3.  Duquesne Dukes.  At the beginning of the year, the Atlantic 10 was supposed to be very strong at the top with Xavier, Temple, Dayton, and Richmond, and the rest of the schools kind of blah.  Three of the four have been good, but Dayton has sucked (which they deserve) and Duquesne has not only snuck into their spot, but might be the best team in the conference.  They beat Temple earlier this year, and after shellacking Dayton on Saturday are now 7-0 in conference play and tied with Xavier at the top.  The schedule is favorable, with Xavier still to come at home and both Dayton and Richmond on the road, but everything else is against pretty bad squads.  I don't know if they can get an at-large - the RPI sits at #89 despite the gaudy record, but it would be a shame if they fall short because this is a really fun team to watch.  Or at least it was fun watching them destroy the most hated team in the country.  I'm referring to Dayton and it's dirty hippie fans.

4.  Darius Morris.  I said he's the best point guard in the country and he really helps bolster my argument when he does things like he did against Iowa on Sunday:  12 pts, 11 assists, 10 rebounds for just the third triple-double in Michigan history (Manny Harris, Gary Grant).  Considering Kalin Lucas and Talor Battle are not point guards, and I have no idea what McCamey is but he sure as hell isn't a PG (more later), that leaves Morris up against Jordan Taylor, Michael Thompson, Al Nolen, Bryce Cartwright, Aaron Craft, Lewis Jackson, and Jordan Hulls.  Not a bad group, and Craft might end up the best of the bunch eventually, but I'd take Morris for sure over every other one of those guys except maybe Jordan Taylor.  That one would be close, but if you need a pure distributor Morris is your man.  If you need more scoring go with Taylor.  Or roofies.

5.  Georgetown Hoyas.  I'm not sure if there's a tougher team to figure out than the Hoyas.  They're clearly good, but are they GOOD or just good?  They have three awesome guards and a suspect interior, so are they are March sleeper because of their guard play or a March quick out because of a weak interior?  I don't know either, but they are looking like they might be hitting their stride, so if you want to jump on the wagon I'd do it now.  Their win over St. Johns was expected, but doing it by 25 was not, and then going to Villanova and knocking off the #7 Wildcats wasn't.  Austin Freeman is a stone cold pimp (scored 10 of G-Town's last 12 against Nova, and assisted on the other 2), Jason Clark is a dead-eye from deep, and Chris Wright just makes it all happen.  If they get anything from their post guys they're a final four team.  Although they could also go out in the first round.  Just like every other god damn team in this crazy stupid year.



WHO SUCKED

1.  Syracuse Orange.  First their defense was exploited on the road at Pitt, then Villanova shot the lights out to beat them in Syracuse, then they were shredded by Seton Hall - in Syracuse - and followed that up by dropping yet another game to Marquette.  So that makes four straight losses piggybacking their 18-0 start.  Three of the four losses are explainable, even if the home loss to Nova is unfortunate, but that loss at home to Seton Hall is troubling and rather inexplicable - especially since they lost by 22.  The Hall had only two prior conference wins, over bottom feeders DePaul and South Florida, but they roll into the Carrier Dome and run the Orange out of it.  Here's what I think happened - Pitt exploited the zone and showed how athletic guards with some size could dribble-penetrate into the gaps and either score or find open teammates and everybody else has copied them.  Each team they've lost to on this skid has guards who can do just that.  They're done.  Cooked.  Over.

2.  Michigan State Spartans.  Well you knew this was coming, and these guys are just a mess.  A home loss to Michigan and an comeback overtime one-point win against Indiana, also at home, say that this isn't a team that's starting slowly and will peak in March.  No, this is more like a team that sucks and will be lucky to sniff the NCAA tournament, let alone peak during it.  Suddenly, despite being nearly the same team that made the Final Four last year, they're turning the ball over like crazy and playing nearly zero defense - not a great combination.  Their strength of schedule is good, which will keep them in the postseason picture if they can turn it around or at least play like an average team, but it's looking less and less likely that it's even a possibility.  If Wisconsin doesn't implode late in the game in East Lansing, Jeremiah Rivers doesn't miss free throws down the stretch, and Northwestern doesn't blow a lead with 30 seconds to play, the Spartans are 2-7 and in 10th place.  I know that's a lot of IFs, but it just underscores how awful they've been.  And I really don't have a clue why.

3.  Demetri McCamey. I've said it a million times, but I'll say it again:  Demetri McCamey is not a point guard and Illinois will not win their first round NCAA game with him running the show.  He proved me right yet again in the Illini's awful loss @ Indiana this week - Indiana's first win over a ranked team in their last 20 tries.  McCamey's line:  6 points on 2-11 shooting (2-7 from three, nice job getting in the lane, guy), with 3 assists and 5 turnovers.  Even worse, down the stretch Illinois had Brandon Paul running the point, who isn't a point guard either.  Trust me you guys, I know the numbers look like something a good PG would put up (15 pts and 7 assists per game), but just watch him.  Or watch Illinois in any late game situation, several of which they've screwed up already this year.  He's awful.  Please, I beg you, pick against them in round 1 of the tournament.  It's a lock. 

4.  Butler Bulldogs.  I'm actually really sick of writing about Butler, but they keep showing up here because they are a huge disappointment and they suck.  This week they did an absolute awesome job of making sure they don't get an at-large bid, losing to both Milwaukee (at home) and Valparaiso (on the road), dropping their Horizon record to 6-4, overall record to 14-8, and chances of getting an at-large to about 1.4%.  Of course, I'm sure they'll win their conference tournament and sneak in, and everybody will think they are a trendy upset pick, but you'll know they suck and pick against them.  I swear to god if there's a first round Butler/Illinois matchup I'm going to the light something on fire.

5.  The Coreys.  No, not Haim and Feldman.  Those guys rocked in everything, even Dream a Little Dream and that Lost Boys movie with that hot chick from the final season of the O.C. (pictured).  I mean the stupid fake Coreys from Villanova, who are less irritating than Scottie Reynolds but still make me want to punch my own nuts with a pepper grinder.  Villanova had a rough week, losing to Providence on the road and then at home to Georgetown, dropping them to 5-3 in the Big East, and fake Corey Haim and fake Corey Feldman didn't help.  Corey Fisher (Feldman) shot 7-20 in the two games, while Corey Stokes (Haim), whose only identifiable skill is scoring (shooting heroin) went 4-23 (Four.  For. Twenty.  Three) and registered four turnovers against just one assist.  Those two aren't the only reason they went 0-2 this week, because the whole team sucked outside of Maalik Wayns (who we'll call Nicole Eggert), but the Corey's are what make this team go.  Just like grandpa's cadillac.  Probably end up about the same, too.

Oh, and I missed the second half of the Gopher game because I was at a kids' birthday party, so my thoughts on that are:  did you really expect them to win @ Purdue?  Just worry about the games they could/should win.  Let's just win in Bloomington here, mmmmkay?  This one is terrifying.

Game Recap: Gophers 81, Northwestern 70 (plus Purdue mini-preview)

Who knew that putting a 6-11 guy, a 6-10, and a 6-9 behemoth, none of whom possess ball-handling skills that would rank higher than "6th grade" would result in Globetrotter ball breaking out?  Ralph Sampson, Colt Iverson, and Trevor Mbakwe started last night's game together and were in almost the entire time, spending much of it displaying interior passing that surpassed the realm of shocking and went straight into mind-boggling.  Did you know Colt Iverson could pull off a deft touch-pass leading to a Mbakwe dunk?  No you didn't, liar.

Combine the size of those giants (along with a 6-7 Rodney Williams playing shooting guard) with a Northwestern front-line that ranged from "slight and frail as a 12-year old girl with a skinned knee" to "mobile as an oak tree" and it's easy to see why the Gophers dominated the game.  They were layuping and dunking all over people's heads, leading to 53% shooting on a night they went 2-11 from three (the bigs were 15-24), while on the other end the Wildcats (more like Mildcats, am I right?) treated the area inside the three point line as if it were poison, chucking up 39 three-point attempts (61% of their shots) from behind the arc.  Despite getting cracked in the chin, John Shurna was the only player who seemed to try to penetrate at all, and on a night when the shots weren't falling (just 12 threes went in), it wasn't too difficult to shut them down.

Their switch to that dreaded 1-3-1 seemed to confuse the Gophers for a time, something it's done to no other team this year, letting Northwestern creep back and actually grab the lead at the half, but credit Tubby for fixing that issue in half #2.  Getting the ball to Sampson at the top of the key, where he essentially posted up, allowed him to turn and see who had the advantage on their man out of Mbakwe and Iverson, and get them the ball.  Credit Ralph, because as soft as he is on the interior at times, he is a good enough passer that they can get away with playing him at the 3 in these situations.

Blake passed his first test as the team's new point guard, and really surprised me by still being able to score and get shots.  The freshman back-ups were used sparingly, but were effective enough at not screwing up to help get Blake the ball, and Rodney Williams played one of his better games as a Gopher, I thought.  He wasn't flashy, outside of that monster dunk that was #2 on Sportscenter's plays of the night, but he was very effective.  Although he had just four points, he chipped in 5 rebounds, 6 assists, 2 steals, and 2 blocks with just 2 turnovers (44 fantasy points) despite handling the ball more than usual.  I was impressed.

So the Gophers passed their first test post-Nolen, but a far bigger challenge awaits this weekend, traveling to West Lafayette to take on #12 Purdue.  I previewed the Boilers just a couple weeks ago, so you can read that here, but specific to this matchup I have a few quick questions:

1)  Who the hell is going to guard Lewis Jackson?  Seriously, I need to know.  Blake can't.  Rodney probably could, but then who guards E'Twaun Moore?  Maverick can't.  Hollins?  Armelin?  Go zone?  All I know is that even Al Nolen had a hell of a time keeping Jackson out of the lane (remember, Al's biggest successes when Jackson drove were either blocking his shot or stripping him of the ball, not keeping him out of the lane), so I don't have a clue how they're going to stop him from penetrating.  It'll be like a date with your sister.

2)  Will that 3-big lineup work again?  On offense, yes.  Purdue isn't inept on the interior, but outside of JaJuan Johnson (and that's a big "outside of" by the way), their two other size guys (Patrick Bade and Travis Carroll) don't exactly make big contributions (combined average of under 18 minutes per game).  Defensively, however, I'm not sure how it's going to work.  Hoffarber and Iverson will be liabilities, but Purdue isn't exactly the most athletic team in the conference (Carroll, Ryne Smith, DJ Byrd), but if they can play that 2-3 zone as effectively as they played it against the Wildcats they'll have a chance.  And besides, what's Tubby's other option anyway?  They have no choice but to go with Hoff, Rodney, Colt, Ralph, and Mbakwe for the majority of the game.

3)  Is Purdue overrated?  They rank #12 in both polls and #10 in Ken Pomeroy's statistical rankings, and I'm going to say slightly, and also very much at the same time.  Slightly, because I think they are a top 15 type team nationally based on watching them play.  Very much, because if you look at their results they've done basically nothing so far this year.  Outside of a win over Michigan State, they don't have a single win over a top 50 RPI team, losing in their other three opportunities, and they just got shellacked by Ohio State (although, realistically, there's no shame in that - the Buckeyes would have beaten any team in the country last night, including the NBA).  So although they look like a good team, they haven't really proven to be just yet.

4)  Can the Gophers win in Mackey Arena?  Can they?  Yes.  Will they?  I'd say probably not, but I got a funny feeling and it's not just in my pants.  The three bigs lineup has me feeling confident.  Maybe it's just the "shiny new toy" aspect, or maybe I'm a deranged homer, but I just don't see how Purdue can stop it short of Hoffarber shatting himself, and I don't see that happening.  So it all really comes down to if you think the Gophers can stop Purdue.  And guess what?  I think they can.

Minnesota 67, Purdue 64.

Game Preview: Minnesota Gophers vs. Northwestern Wildcats

I can't think of a better way to start out this preview than a quote that frequent commenter Loretta8 left in our comment box regarding Northwestern and how badly they sucked against Wisconsin.  Loretta8, by the way, is a Northwestern fan and one of the authors of Sippin on Purple, the best Big Ten team blog out there (and it's not even close).  Anyway, his take on tonight's game:

Northwestern definitely sucked, letting Josh fucking Gasser get a triple double is one of the low points in program history, and there's a lot of competition for that honor.

As for the weak non-con schedule, I'm furious about it, but not because it's hurt NU's NCAA chances, they were never good enough to get an at-large bid anyways. Instead, it kept them with a decent won/loss record for far too long, allowing for more and more national media stories, from hacks who thought a team that has zero bench and plays defense like it would give them herpes could actually make the NCAAs, same shit the last three years.

I'll save you some time for Wednesday's NU preview: NU sucks, Gophers by 25.

Well then.

Apparently people don't all agree, because earlier this week Snacks e-mailed me about how he is absolutely convinced that the Gophers won't/can't win this game.  Quite a storied matchup here between two teams with fanbases that are convinced they can't win.  The movable object vs. the stoppable force.  David vs. David.  The Washington Generals vs. Prairie View A&M.  Epic doesn't begin to describe it.

In all seriousness though, there's no reason at all the Gophers should lose this game, even without Al freaking Nolen.  It feels like Northwestern should be good because they do actually have some weapons:

John Shurna might not look like much, but he's one of the best all-around players in the country and has been a top 4 scorer in the conference both of the last two years.  Even if he is slowed currently by an ankle injury he still managed to score 24 against Michigan just a few games ago.

Drew Crawford can be incredibly explosive, and he had one of the highest scoring fantasy days of any Big Ten player this year when he put up 25 points, 9 rebounds, 8 assists, 3 blocks, and 2 steals against St. Francis.  And it's not like that's the only team he can brutalize, because he's scored 16 or more in four Big Ten games already.

Michael Thompson, or "Juice" if you're a complete dork, is one of the best point guards in the conference, even if his shooting has taken a bit of a step back, and the second leading scorer on the team.  He's also very consistent, scoring between 11 and 18 points in 15 of 19 games this year.

Besides those three, they have the insanely underrated Luka Mirkovic, who was pretty much the steal of our fantasy league draft, and freshman Jershon Cobb.  Mirkovic is pretty much the slowest player in the conference, and in the Big Ten that's saying something, but he's got one pretty reliable move where he goes from block to block, moving to his left, and ends up sealing his man with his body and making a lefty lay-up.  He somehow put up a 20 and 12 game against Indiana.  Cobb is your typical freshman, just as likely to be a non-factor as he is to contribute, but he did blow up for 18 against Illinois.

In short, this is a very, very good offense, good enough to rank 14th in overall offensive efficiency.  They shoot well from both two (52.2%, 41st in the coutnry) and three (40.4%, 13th), and rarely turn the ball over (9th best in D-I).  They're going to get their shots, and against a piss-poor defensive team like the Gophers they are going to be open and make quite a few.  They will score some points.  That's the bad news.

The good news is that they are absolutely dreadful on defense.  The once terrifying 1-3-1 (learn more here in an excellent post) is now about as effective as an empty gym at stopping opponents.   They can't defend the two (opponents shoot 50.8%, 269th in the country) or the three (36.7%, also 269th), all of which adds up to the 295th effective field goal percentage defense in the nation, the 3rd worse among teams from the Big 10, Big 12, Big East, ACC, Pac-10, SEC, Conference USA, Mountain West, and the WAC - only Wyoming and Oregon State are worse.  This means the Gophers should score some points, especially on the inside and especially because they have the towering trio of Sampson, Mbakwe, and Iverson, who should have their way in the paint.

Now, the X-factor is how the Gophers handle that zone without their point guard.  Guys like Demetri McCamey and Jordan Taylor can penetrate and find open teammates in that zone all night long, and if Nolen was healthy I'd be confident he'd do the same.  It's up to Blake and Armelin and Maverick and whoever else gets thrown out there, so I'm less sure of the results.  I trust Blake, but that's about it.  Can he play 36 minutes of point guard?  Yeah, why not.

Minnesota 78, Northwestern 70

NERDS!!!!!!

Week in Review - 01.24.2011

 Well, it's now obvious how to fix the Vikings.  Simply trade your second round pick over to Chicago for Caleb Hanie, give him the rock, and sit back and watch him destroy the league.  The guy's like the second coming of Jonathan Moxon!  Of course, if Chicago is smart they're going to demand your first round pick.  Is Hanie worth #12 overall?  I think it's pretty clear that he is.

WHO WAS AWESOME

1.  Gopher basketball.  Ok, awesome might be a bit strong here, but considering that at no point did I expect them to end up winning that game in Ann Arbor and they pulled it out semi-convincingly I can give credit where credit is due - particularly since Al Nolen was out for the entire second half.  I'm not even sure which part was most impressive for the Gophers:  Blake filling in at point guard and doing a great job (6 assists to 0 turnovers) including a couple of big baskets down the stretch, the absolute pounding they put on the boards (out-reobunded Michigan 37-11), or the quality shots they were getting that led to 63% shooting.  Just an all around excellent game.  Now let's hope Nolen isn't hurt for an significant period of time.

At this point the Gophers have to be considered a near lock to make the NCAA Tournament.  An RPI of 24 with a Strength of Schedule of 41, 3 wins over RPI top 25 teams, and just one bad loss (Virginia, RPI 121).  Absolute worst case scenario, will be an 7-11 Big 10 record, and that's if there only wins the rest of the year are home games against Northwestern, Michigan, and Penn State.  Obviously in that case they wouldn't get in, but 9-9 should do it so all they need to do is win 2 games out of @ Purdue, @ Indiana, vs. Ohio State, vs. Illinois, @ Iowa, @ Penn State, vs. Michigan State, and @ Northwestern.  That shouldn't be an issue, with or without Nolen.  I can see an 11 or 12 win season as a definite possibility, in which case the Gophers are set up for a 5 or so seed.  Perfectly placed for a first round loss to Old Dominion. 

2.  Texas Longhorns.  Quite the nice little run by the Longhorns, starting the week off with a ho-hum 21-point win over #10 ranked and previously 1-loss Texas A&M, and then followed that up by going into Allen Fieldhouse and beating undefeated and 2nd ranked Kansas by 11, ending the Jayhawks 69-game home winning streak.  I don't even think it's possible for a team to have a better week, and if you weren't totally sold on the Longhorns, and I wasn't, I don't think you can deny them any longer.  Jordan Hamilton has decided to become a stud, Tristan Thompson is a force, Gary Johnson plays a quality role, and Corey Joseph seems to be figuring it out.  They've got an outstanding inside/outside balance and could make a hell of a run in March.  Of course, Rick Barnes is still involved, so it wouldn't be shocking in the least to see them lose 10 straight and miss the tournament.  We'll see.

3.  Alabama Crimson Tide.  If you're going to make a run an your first NCAA tournament bid since 2006 you need to win some big games.  Which is exactly what Alabama did with their 2-point victory over #12 Kentucky, giving them a much needed resume boost.  They are just 11-7 overall, their losses to St. Peter's and Iowa are a bit tough to explain, and they have a pretty crappy strength of schedule so they still have a ton of work to do.  That was the last game on their schedule against a currently ranked team and they play in the crappy SEC West so a big run isn't out of the question.  They're 3-1 in conference now, so something like 12-4 isn't out of the question.  That would be enough to get them in, no doubt.  It would actually be pretty sweet to have them matched up against the Gophers, because I'd love to see a Mbakwe/JaMychal Green match-up.

4. Memphis Tigers.  There was a lot of preseason talk about whether this was the year Memphis finally lost it's stranglehold on Conference USA (at least on the rare occasions when anybody talked about C-USA) after winning it each year since 2006.  There was a lot of talk about Larry Eustacy's Southern Miss taking the crown, or maybe UTEP or UAB would finally take that next step up or perhaps Central Florida and their hot start signaled the changing times.  Well you can shut your whore mouth about all that, because Memphis beat both UAB and Southern Miss this week, both on the road, and are now tied with UTEP at the top of the standings.  Now, this Memphis team isn't anywhere near the class of Calipari's old teams, but for one week at least they made sure everybody knew they weren't done just yet.  That sentence was stupid and something a hack writer for SI.com would write.  My apologies.  Smelly pirate hooker.

5.  Jimmer Fredette.  I've avoided talking about him so far this year, mainly because everybody else is and whenever people like something I automatically hate it (see:  Brett Favre, Nickelback, or Olive Garden) but I can't ignore the elephant in the room any longer - he's really good and really mormon.  He scored 42 points on Saturday on the road at a pesky Colorado State team, giving him two 40+ games in his last three times out and is currently leading the country in scoring at 26.7 points per game.  He's also efficient, and his 48% shooting, including 41% from three, along with his 90% accuracy from the free throw stripe is a good reason why BYU is the 6th best team in the nation by offensive efficiency.  Are they an actually good team?  I'd say yes, probably, but let's wait to see what happens Wednesday against San Diego State.  I know the Jimmer is bad ass though.  Seriously, just watch this: 






WHO SUCKED

1.  Colorado Buffaloes.  Waah wah!  The DWG curse strikes again, and all the momentum and positivity and sleeper talk Colorado built up with their 3-0 start in Big 12 play has now come to a screeching halt after an epic crash and burn this week, losing both to Oklahoma and Nebraska, two of the worst teams in the Big 12 and both losses are resume killers.  The conference is strong enough where they'll have plenty of opportunities to get marquee wins and build their profile back up, but this is a pretty massive setback.  It would be like the Gophers losing to Michigan and Indiana, only if they didn't have those good wins from Puerto Rico.  My bad Colorado fans, you can blame this one on me.

2.  Gonzaga Bulldogs.  Another team who absolutely god awful week and made huge strides in tanking their at-large chances.  Gonzaga, whose overall record is now just 13-7, lost twice this week, to San Francisco and Santa Clara, both contenders in the West Coast Conference, but not the same kind of contender St. Mary's has been the last few years.  In short, the kind of teams that the Gonzagas of the past would just roll right over, but clearly this year's Zags aren't quite the same type of team.  Which is weird, because a nucleus of Steven Gray, Robert Sacre, and Elias Harris should be enough to carry them to a WCC title.  Clearly, all those other dorks I've never heard of must really, really suck.  Now, their strength of schedule was ridiculous and do have wins over Baylor, Oklahoma State, and Xavier so they'll still almost certainly get a bid, but this isn't he same kind of dangerous Gonzaga team, more like out in round 1.

3.  Kenny Boynton.  It didn't take long for me to find my most-hated player after Scottie Reynolds' graduation, so congratulations Kenny Boynton, a chucker of such epic proportions that he makes Chris Kingsbury cringe at his shot selection, Reynolds' himself chuckle at the volume of shots he puts up, and Al Nolen chuckle at his accuracy.  Boynton has shot the rock 121 times this year from beyond the arc, and has hit a whopping 30.6% (and that's after going 4-7 on Saturday), after shooting 29% last year.  This year is 81st in three-point attempts in the country, and out of those 81 players, only four have a worst shooting percentage than Boynton.  Not dissimilar to last year, when he was 28th in the country in 3-point attempts, and had the worst shooting percentage out of the top 100 attempters.  Seriously, you should watch this guy.  He's completely insane.

4. Northwestern Wildcats.  Did you freaking see that score yesterday?  I guess we can cross off "Can Northwestern make it's first NCAA Tournament" from the list of storylines for 2011.  You just can't lose at home by 32, especially to a good but not great Wisconsin team.  As it stands Northwestern's record is now 13-6, and although none of those losses classify as "bad" (margin of loss not a factor), their RPI is a dismal 69, their strength of schedule is horrendous at #122, and their best win right now is over Michigan - their only win over a top 100 RPI team.  It's just ugly, and it's exactly what they deserve for scheduling such a terrible non-conference slate in a year where they knew they were trying to make a run for an NCAA bid.  Terrible.  Just terrible.

5.  Central Florida Knights.  Hey, remember when UCF started out all hot and were 14-0 and beat Florida and Miami and everyone was "OMG Michael Jordan's kid is single-handedly making UCF into an awesome team" and nobody would ever shut up about it and it was just like John Madden/Brett Favre love-fest and everybody was giving out handjobs?  Remember that?  Well suck it, liberal media, because UCF sucks and Jordan's kid sucks, and you suck.  They're now 1-4 in C-USA after losing to East Carolina and Rice, two of the absolute worst teams in the conference, this week and your boyfriend Marcus Jordan was a combined 3-14 shooting in the two games and probably got his ass beat by his dad because of his losing.  So maybe we shouldn't all be so desperate to turn something into a cute little story when nothing has even happened yet.  And speaking of cute, there are lots of good pictures of UCF fans out there:

 

Big 10 Power Poll - 5 Questions

Gopher Nation from The Daily Gopher is another participant in Myron Medcalf's Big 10 Power Poll for startibune.com, and he sent out 5 questions to all the voters.  Check TDG on Monday for his recap of everybody's answers, mine are below with his questions in bold:

1 - The Gophers endured probably the most difficult start to the Big Ten season that one could imagine.  On the road against three of the league's best all resulted in a loss, though two of those games were one possessions games with under a minute to go.  Now Purdue is the only road game left against an upper-tier Big Ten team, but what about the other road games?  What road game against a mid or lower tier team concerns you the most and why?

Every single one.  But, if I'm forced to pick just a single game I'll take the game at Iowa on February 13th.  Penn State is an obvious choice, but by the time the Gophers head to their place PSU might not be considered a lower tier team anymore, and there are a couple things going against the Gophers when they head to Iowa.  First, that would be the most damaging game to lose in terms of an NCAA Tournament resume, so that right there has me half convinced they're going to lose.  A bigger worry is a look at exactly when they head to Iowa - it's right after home games against Ohio State and Illinois.  Can you see the Gophers getting one or two very big, nice home wins and then going and laying an egg the next time out in Iowa City?  Of course you can, you're a Gopher fan.  You've been here before. 

2 - The short bench and minutes played by starters has been a hot topic lately.  To me there are two angles to this topic.  First of all this means we are forced to rely on a few true freshmen in the backcourt for the rest of the Big Ten season.  By the time we get to the Big Ten tournament which of the freshmen will step up (if any) and be a consistent factor off the bench.  Secondly, can the current starters (plus Iverson) continue to play the extended minutes they are playing for the remaining schedule?  Will they be able to apply pressure defense and play transition offense without wearing down?  

It's definitely not a positive.  I still think Hollins and Armelin have good potential (and Walker, but he's out for the year) but they certainly aren't ready to play heavy minutes yet, so what choice does Tubby really have?  Those two are capable of giving the team a combined 25-30 minutes each game, slanted towards whichever one seems to have his head on straight that game, and I think I could handle Ahanmisi for about 10 minutes.  Which means Rodney, Nolen, and Hoffarber have to play about 28 minutes or so apiece each night.  With Nolen and Blake getting more like 30-32, that means Rodney needs to play just 22-25 each night, and Mbakwe, Sampson, and Iverson need to play right around 28 per game as well.  That's a lot of minutes for the six main guys, but I don't see any choice.  If Ohio State can do it, why not the Gophers?

3 - The Gophers haven’t won a Big Ten title, officially, since 1982. Even if you include the vacated Big Ten title in 1997, this program has finished top three in the Big Ten two times since the 1980-81 season.  “What will it take for this program to make the strides necessary to compete for Big Ten titles in basketball?”

Talent.  Talent wins out.  Good coaches can coach lesser players up, but in order to really compete at the top of the basketball world you need talent and that comes from recruiting.  Whether it's getting the highly rated prospects or identifying future stars that aren't as nationally recognized, the talent needs to get better.  Tubby has certainly upgraded the level of player coming here since he took over, but right now the program is at a "compete for a B10 title every 4 years or so when a really good class are seniors" and not in the class of the perennial contenders in the conference.  

4 - Let's move on to some Big Ten talk.  We've all been participating in the power poll and Ohio State has been the near unanimous #1 all season.  It would be hard to argue that anyone else will win the league but when all is said and done who will be the second best team in the conference and why?

Wow, that is tough to say because every team is flawed.  Purdue and Wisconsin are both completely reliant on their duos.  Michigan State might be the most talented on paper but they are a mess right now.  The Gophers are still the Gophers.  I'd have to go with Illinois by default.  They're a good, but not great, team and have enough talent spread out amongst all their players to be a threat on any given night, so I'd expect they'll end up finishing second when the season schedule is through.  They'll also lose in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, and that's a guarantee.

5 - The Barn...stand up or sit down? Here is your opportunity to rant...

I will never, ever understand why people think they have the right to tell other people how to cheer for their favorite team.  Not everybody is a yeller, and guess what?  I think when you yell instructions to the players or refer to them by their first names that makes you an idiot with more than a touch of delusion.  How do you like that?  Stand if you want, sit if you want.  Nobody should be able to make you sit down if you want to stand, and nobody should try to make you stand up if you want to sit.  Seriously, just leave people alone, weirdos.

Game Preview: Minnesota Gophers vs. Michigan Wolverines

To be simplistic, there are four types of games in Big Ten play:  Home against good teams, home against bad teams, away vs. good teams, and away vs. bad teams.  We know how the Gophers play on the road against good teams (hard fought games, but unable to break through) and how they play home against bad teams (ugly wins).  We just saw them play a home game against a good team and they played great.  Now, on Saturday, we get to learn how they play on the road against bad teams when they travel to Ann Arbor to take on Michigan.

While all games are important in the Big Ten, the road games against bad teams may very well be the most important ones to walk away from with a W, because although a road win at Michigan or similar team certainly won't get you into the tournament, lose too many of these and you rack up too many tallies under the "bad loss" column and that can definitely keep you out.  Everybody is going to lose their road games, and probably a home game or two, against the top of the conference - that's unavoidable.  It is imperative to take care of business against lesser foes so that loss total doesn't rise high enough to raise questions.

That's not to say beating Michigan should be a cakewalk, because they are tough and they have dominated the Gophers recently.  They've beaten the Gophers four games in a row including an embarrassing loss in Ann Arbor at the end of last year where Michigan just destroyed them 83-55, a loss which likely knocked Minnesota out of the NCAA Tournament until they played their way back in with a nice run in the B10 tourney.

This year's version of the Wolverines may be a better team, but it's hard to tell.  One thing's for certain - they have the capacity to play with anybody.  They've played three of the best teams in the land this year in Syracuse, Kansas, and Ohio State and walked away with a 3-point loss, and overtime loss, and a 4-point loss so they're dangerous at any time.  They did, however, recently get blown out @ Indiana in a game where they shot just 36% and are in the midst of a four-game losing streak, so they can also lose to anybody at any time.

Which team shows up on Saturday?  Well, seeing is how they are at home and likely licking their chops to get at a team they've owned, I'd say the good version, and there's enough talent here to see them to the win.

Their best player by far is sophomore Darius Morris who is leads the team in both scoring (15.7 per game) and assists (7.1, 2nd in the country and 5th in the nation), and he's the best point guard in the entire Big Ten (McCamey -> suck it).  Which is why it is going to sound weird when I say not to worry about him.  Not because he's not good, it's because he is so good, and incredibly consistent.  Essentially no matter what the Gophers do, he's going to score his 15-20 points and dish out 5-9 assists.  It's pretty much like clockwork, so instead of worrying about him, worry about his crappy teammates.  None of them are particularly good, but a bunch of them can do just enough well that if a couple of them have good games it could push the Wolverines to a win.

Shooting guard Tim Hardaway is the second leading scorer at 11 per game, mainly because he never stops shooting.  He's an absolute chucker who is fifth in the conference in 3-point attempts despite having hit just 27% of them this year.  But, like all chuckers he can get hot, which he's done a few times this year, scoring 19 points or more in a game three times including vs. Kansas.

Zack Novak is another guy who loves the three, but he's a bit more selective with his shot (36%).  He's also a good rebounder for his size (6.5 per game at 6-4) and can score in the lane.  Even though he looks like your average dork you'd see at the YMCA hoopin' it up, he's actually pretty athletic, has a good shot, and can control a game at times.  He's registered three double-double this year, all against non-cupcakes:  Kansas, Harvard, and Oakland.

Power forward Jordan Morgan is a beast at 6-8, 240 lbs. and is one of the best rebounders in the conference on a per-minute basis, averaging 6.1 rebounds per game in just 23 minutes.  He's not generally a big fan of scoring, but nonetheless like everybody else on this team he's had his moments, notching 20 points twice.

Stu Douglass is another guard, a junior who has basically been a disappointment in his three years at Michigan.  He's not a distributor at all, and isn't much of a scorer, so he mainly just stands around and shoots the occasional three.  Of course, he's had his big nights as well, hitting at least three 3-pointers five different times this year, and put up 17 points in their last game against Northwestern.

Evan Smotrycz is basically Jon Beilein's wet dream of a player:  white, tall, loves the cock three-pointer.  He's hit double figures in scoring twice this year, and interestingly his two best output games were against Clemson and Ohio State, so he doesn't shrink from good competition.  Not that that's what he'll see when the Gophers are in town.

Jon Horford is also worth mentioning - yes he's Al's brother - because against the Gophers he'll probably exceed his season average of 8.7 minutes because they'll need his size out there (he's 6-9, 220).  He obviously doesn't get much time, but when he's given a chance he produces.  In the three games he's been given at least 15 minutes of playing time (never more than 17) he's averaged 6 points and, impressively, 7 rebounds.  If I was a Michigan fan I'd kill myself, but before I did that I'd be excited to see him play since he'll probably break that season high 17 minutes.  Could be Horford's breakout game.  You heard it here first.

So basically just let Morris do what Morris do, but limit all these other dorks.  None of them are particularly imposing or terrifying in any way, but if more than 1 of them are on it's going to be a long night.  The Gophers shouldn't have any particularly problems with Michigan's defense, but on the other end they're going to have to defend the three-point line like crazy.  Michigan doesn't turn the ball over much (24th in the country in TO %) so they're going to get their shots, and they love the three-ball (8th in the country in 3-pt attempts per FG attempt).  Morris, Hardaway, Novak, Douglass, Smotrycz, and Matt Vogrich all like the shoot the three.  If they're open, they'll make 'em.

The Gophers should win this game on talent, but talent doesn't always win out.  On the road against a team who shoots a ton of three-pointers when they can't defend the three and a team that has won 4 in a row against them and completely owned them lately when this could easily be a let-down game for Minnesota and is basically a desperation must win for Michigan?  Tell me how that sounds like a Gopher win?

Michigan 74, Minnesota 68.

 
Nice glasses.