The Gophers have hired a replacement for Tubby Smith, rarely quickly actually despite the perception that the search was dragging, and they've gone with Rich Pitino, Rick Pitino's son and most recently the head coach of the Florida International Panthers out of the Sun Belt Conference. And, frankly, this is the kind of hire where if anybody tries to definitively tell you it's either a great or a horrible hire you should really punch them in the face because we simply won't know until a few years down the road.
Either way, this is a ballsy hire. Going for a 30-year old with exactly one year of head coaching experience under his belt - well, ask Todd Lickliter how touch it can be to move up from a mid-major (although the Sun Belt may have trended towards the low majors at this point) and Lickliter had six years at Butler before getting demolished in the Big 10. The main thing we know about our new Pitino is that he took FIU from 8-21 to 18-14 and came within two points of making the NCAA Tournament - so that's good. What else do we know?
Well, since 2007 he's either been an assistant at Louisville or Florida or an associate head coach at Louisville - these two programs excite me greatly. Both the Cardinals and Gators are known for extreme pressure defense, particularly on the perimeter, and outstanding guard play. I like all of those words. It looks like he tried to do the same thing last year at FIU with mixed success. The Panthers were fifth in the entire country in forcing turnovers and eleventh in creating steals while defending the three point line well but they got shredded on 2-pointers. They were also a big-time uptempo team (48th fastest) but turned it over too much themselves to be remotely efficient (272nd in turnovers). It's also worth noting that although he turned the team around compared to the prior season record-wise, he also had five starters departing and nine new players, so it's not like he was taking over a preexisting squad - he created that semi-succesful FIU team.
Recruiting-wise, who knows? Louisville and Florida perennially had great classes, but they both kind of sell themselves and I'm guessing neither the elder Pitino nor Billy Donovan need a whole lot of help selling their programs. I tried to track down some info on how involved but it's tough. I found a few references about him "helping Louisville build back-to-back top 15 classes" and he was able to bring in 8 new recruits very quickly after being hired at FIU, but running your own program and doing it at this level is a whole new experience so who knows.
For now? I'm on board. I love Rick Pitino and I love Billy Donovan and both have had Richard as a key part of their staff and both Louisville and Florida play a style I'd like to see the Gophers adopt and it looks like Pitino tried to install that at FIU last year (and mostly succeeded, given what he had to work with). Pitino is one of the few hires left who can give you the combination of a "name" as well as being a young, up and coming coach.
I trust Teague, and I love Pitino. What could possibly go wrong?
Wednesday, April 3, 2013
Tuesday, April 2, 2013
Gopher/NCAA Talkers
As much as I hate to interrupt a big string of posts by someone who isn't me, thus giving me needed time off, so much is happening and I haven't had a chance to comment on any of it, so it's time to do a quick run down of everything that is going on.
- Speaking of moving on, the latest rumor I've heard is that Scott Drew of Baylor may be a candidate for the Gophers. While Drew is elite in one aspect of being a basketball coach (recruiting) he's also extremely weak in another (game coaching). Everything else being equal I'd take a great recruiter/poor coach over a poor recruiter/game coach, but Drew does very little for me. I know I've said that I don't mind if coach's cheat as long as they win games as well, but I like my cheating to be a little more refined and a little more subtle. I'd rather have a guy cheat and I'm shocked to find out (Clem) than somebody like Drew who is the second guy named by anybody who follows the sport when asked to name the biggest cheaters (after Calipari, who probably doesn't cheat anymore). He's an NCAA investigation waiting to happen, and probably sooner rather than later.
- Gregg Marshall is still my top choice, but the damn Shockers keep winning so we'll have to keep waiting. Which is ok, really. Remember Tubby was fired just over a week ago and most coaching vacancies take at least two weeks to fill, so let's all calm down for a few minutes and let Norwood Teague do what he do.
- As far as the other rumored candidates - Anthony Grant, Buzz Williams, Dwayne Stephens, etc - Teague and the rest of the administration have done a great job keeping a lid on anything factual so far so we can't really even know if these guys are being considered so it's basically pointless to really even discuss them until we know something more concrete. And honestly I really prefer it this way where everything is just a rumor, so then we don't actually know if they're getting turned down left and right and we're going to end up with Andy Enright's head assistant or something. I remember when Tubby was hired and I had no idea he was even being considered. Granted that was an age before Twitter but still, I expect an announcement to come almost out of nowhere and I'm looking forward to it.
- Tubby Smith is the new coach at Texas Tech. It's a good hire for the Red Raiders, and a good fit for Smith at this point in his coaching life cycle. I have very little doubt that Texas Tech will make their way back to the NCAA Tournament at some point in the next five years. I also have very little doubt they won't become a perennial Big 12 title contender, but Smith should be perfect in terms of getting them back to respectability - then it becomes a matter of the program's final goals. This could very easily be the Tubby to Saul hand-off job that I'm pretty sure they were hoping Minnesota would be. Good luck to everyone involved.
- Steve Alford to UCLA and Andy Enfield to USC. I actually think Enfield is a better hire than Alford - well, maybe better fit, not necessarily better hire. Enfield was going to get a promotion, that was pretty obvious, and going to any Pac-12 school is a better fit for his wide open, high-flying, NBA style than a team in the B12 or B10 would have been. I have a feeling he would have flamed out in under 3 years in those conferences, but things should work in the Pac-10 and specifically at USC. I expect the Trojans to be very successful in the next few years.
Alford at UCLA is a big gamble to me, given that it's one of the top jobs in the entire country and he flamed out the last time he was in a major conference. He's done a great job with New Mexico, but some coaches aren't cut out for the biggest stages. This is Alford's second chance and if he blows this one he's going to be a mid-major guy for life. Interested to see if he can restore some luster to the brand. The good news is he shouldn't have to worry about recruiting too much since UCLA pretty much recruits for itself, success'll be dependent on his game coaching and he's always been just so-so there.
- I'll be back later this week with some baseball stuff. I was going to do it tonight but I'm pretty lazy.
- Speaking of moving on, the latest rumor I've heard is that Scott Drew of Baylor may be a candidate for the Gophers. While Drew is elite in one aspect of being a basketball coach (recruiting) he's also extremely weak in another (game coaching). Everything else being equal I'd take a great recruiter/poor coach over a poor recruiter/game coach, but Drew does very little for me. I know I've said that I don't mind if coach's cheat as long as they win games as well, but I like my cheating to be a little more refined and a little more subtle. I'd rather have a guy cheat and I'm shocked to find out (Clem) than somebody like Drew who is the second guy named by anybody who follows the sport when asked to name the biggest cheaters (after Calipari, who probably doesn't cheat anymore). He's an NCAA investigation waiting to happen, and probably sooner rather than later.
- Gregg Marshall is still my top choice, but the damn Shockers keep winning so we'll have to keep waiting. Which is ok, really. Remember Tubby was fired just over a week ago and most coaching vacancies take at least two weeks to fill, so let's all calm down for a few minutes and let Norwood Teague do what he do.
- As far as the other rumored candidates - Anthony Grant, Buzz Williams, Dwayne Stephens, etc - Teague and the rest of the administration have done a great job keeping a lid on anything factual so far so we can't really even know if these guys are being considered so it's basically pointless to really even discuss them until we know something more concrete. And honestly I really prefer it this way where everything is just a rumor, so then we don't actually know if they're getting turned down left and right and we're going to end up with Andy Enright's head assistant or something. I remember when Tubby was hired and I had no idea he was even being considered. Granted that was an age before Twitter but still, I expect an announcement to come almost out of nowhere and I'm looking forward to it.
- Tubby Smith is the new coach at Texas Tech. It's a good hire for the Red Raiders, and a good fit for Smith at this point in his coaching life cycle. I have very little doubt that Texas Tech will make their way back to the NCAA Tournament at some point in the next five years. I also have very little doubt they won't become a perennial Big 12 title contender, but Smith should be perfect in terms of getting them back to respectability - then it becomes a matter of the program's final goals. This could very easily be the Tubby to Saul hand-off job that I'm pretty sure they were hoping Minnesota would be. Good luck to everyone involved.
- Steve Alford to UCLA and Andy Enfield to USC. I actually think Enfield is a better hire than Alford - well, maybe better fit, not necessarily better hire. Enfield was going to get a promotion, that was pretty obvious, and going to any Pac-12 school is a better fit for his wide open, high-flying, NBA style than a team in the B12 or B10 would have been. I have a feeling he would have flamed out in under 3 years in those conferences, but things should work in the Pac-10 and specifically at USC. I expect the Trojans to be very successful in the next few years.
Alford at UCLA is a big gamble to me, given that it's one of the top jobs in the entire country and he flamed out the last time he was in a major conference. He's done a great job with New Mexico, but some coaches aren't cut out for the biggest stages. This is Alford's second chance and if he blows this one he's going to be a mid-major guy for life. Interested to see if he can restore some luster to the brand. The good news is he shouldn't have to worry about recruiting too much since UCLA pretty much recruits for itself, success'll be dependent on his game coaching and he's always been just so-so there.
- I'll be back later this week with some baseball stuff. I was going to do it tonight but I'm pretty lazy.
Sunday, March 31, 2013
NL West Preview
Did the Dodgers spend enough to win the West? I think so. Lincecum still looks like poo and the Dodgers keep adding players like they're team stacking in a fantasy league. My rankings for 2013:
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
2. San Francisco Giants
3. Arizona Diamondbacks
4. San Diego Padres
5. Colorado Rockies
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
2. San Francisco Giants
3. Arizona Diamondbacks
4. San Diego Padres
5. Colorado Rockies
Los Angeles Dodgers o/u 91 --- TRE says Over
Los Doyers won 86 games last year without a full year of Beckett, Crawford and new Angry Adrian Gonzalez. Not to mention a healthy Matt Kemp is back. They've also added Zack Grumpy and Korean Hyun-Jin Ryu to the rotation. They basically have about 7 dudes that would be the number one starter for the Twins. The rotation is now Clayton Kershaw, Greink, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Josh Beckett and Chris Capuano. Hanley is already hurt for a couple of months and Chad Billingsley is also on the DL. If there is a weakness on the team it may be the back end of the bullpen with Brandon League and Kenley Jansen.
Player to Watch: Yasiel Puig - The Cuban outfielder signed a 6 year, $36MM deal and ripped apart spring training like I tore apart my Easter ham. The 22 year old has been optioned to AA, but he could fast trak his way to the majors this year. Carl Crawford is not the healthiest dude in the world, after all.
San Francisco Giants o/u 88.5 --- TRE says Under
Lincecum went to super clips
Got a haircut and cut that thing off his lower lip
Looks like Gordon Leavitt
So the lady's still will have it
No power so velocity still slips
The Giants will miss Melky Cabrera and Lincecum still isn't looking very good so I don't expect a bounce back. Brian Wilson is also gone...he's waiting to sign with someone later this year once he's healthy. It's basically a hairless year for the Giants. They still have a good all around team and Brandon Belt could finally breakout with a full year at 1B, so they are a playoff contender.
Player to Watch: Barry Zito - Zito was good for 15 wins and a 4.15 ERA despite a fastball that is about as strong as my 3 year old's. The guy makes $20MM this year and has a team option for $18MM that vests if he pitches 200 innings this year. It has a $7MM buyout, so either way you're pissing away some money, but you can bet if he's approaching 200 innings they'll be tapping on the brakes.
Arizona Diamondbacks o/u 82.5 --- TRE says Over
Kirk Gibson likes his players extra gritty
Too bad most of them are fairly shitty
With Mark Grace in the clink
for getting silly with the drink
Even the announcing will suck, what a pity
The rotation seems solid with Ian Kennedy, Wade Miley, Trevor Cahill and Brandon McCarthy. The lineup however, has a few questions especially with Adam Eaton now out with an elbow injury. Paul Goldschmidt is an up and comer at 1B, Miguel Montero is a solid catcher and underrated with the bat. Prado and Kubel are also underrated offensively and Aaron Hill is coming off of a monster year. So there are some good players, but they are featuring Cliff Pennington at SS and AJ Pollock is now in CF. Gerardo Parra is a great 4th outfielder, but I'm not sure he's a guy you want playing full time for you. And Prado would look much better as your second baseman than playing 3B as he's got very little pop.
Player to Watch: Paul Goldschmidt - The JewBear is 6'3" and 250lbs and hits BOMBS. In his first full year he hit .286 with 20 homers and a whopping 18 stolen bases. He also cranked out 43 doubles. Look for a lot of those doubles to turn into homeruns this season.
San Diego Padres o/u 74.5 --- TRE says Under
All-star Headley jams his thumb on a base
Jed Gyorko comes in to replace
It's pronounced jerk-o you fool
and mocking its cool
Just try not to do it to his face
The Padres have been looking up in the standings for a few years now and I don't think it changes this year especially with the Headley injury news. Their rotation in subpar with Volquez, Richard, Stults, Marquis and Tyson Ross. Cory Luebke is an interesting upside starter, but he has to get healthy. The bullpen is also scary with perennial DL-guy Huston Street at the back end. With Headley, Yonder Alonso, Cameron Maybin and Everth Cabrera they were building a decent young core of quality bases guys. However, none of the others have made the leap like Headley did and I only think Alonso has the capability to do so. Carlos Quentin can hit, but needs to DH somewhere and Yasmani Grandal is an intriguing catcher option when he's not juicing.
Player to Watch: Jed Gyorko - Gyorko is a 3B that was blocked by Headley pre-injury so he's been busting his butt trying to learn second base. Now that Headley is out he's back over to the hot corner. He hit 328/380/588 with 24 homers in 92 games at AAA last season. He's not super big, but he has a great swing and if he's not dicking around with position changes too much he could have an impact.
 |
| Helton Mug Shot>>>>Grace Mug Shot |
Colorado Rockies o/u 71.5 --- TRE says Under
The Colorado staff is held by duct tape
The silver kind not the one with the great ape
If Tulo is healthy
and Helton's not relfy
The cellar they might just escape
The Rockies' staff has 3 pitcher trying to return to form in Chacin, De La Rosa and Nicasio and that's the plus side of their rotation. The rest is Jeff Francis and Jon Garland. Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki are legit stars though even though they are banged up a lot. Wilin Rosario and Dexter Fowler are young guys that are looking to make the next step from their breakout 2012 seasons. Fowler is an OBP machine in CF and Rosario hit 28 bombs at catcher. I'd like to see them sunset Todd Helton's career and move Cuddyer to first so they can get Eric Young Jr on the field. He has blazing speed that the team could use.
Player to Watch: Nolan Arenado - It seems like I'm always talking about the next 3B prospect in Colorado. From Chad Tracy to Ian Stewart and now Arenado. Arenado has yet to have a AAA at bat, but he's already the best third baseman they have and if Pacheco and Chris Nelson can't cut it, there's a decent chance Nolan is up by mid-season.
NL Central Preview
The new NL Central is without the Bottom Feeder Houston Astros, but should be tight at the top as usual. Here's my projected finish:
1. Cincinnati Reds
2. St. Louis Cardinals
3. Milwaukee Brewers
4. Pittsburgh Pirates
5. Chicago Cubs
Cincinnati Reds o/u 91 wins --- TRE says: Over
Aroldis Chapman decides to barter
Out of his role as a starter
His arm is a rocket
And although he does knock it
A starters' role is is much harder
The Reds should once again compete for the division crown after winning in 2012 and 2010. Their biggest additions were Shin-Shoo Choo who will lead off and play center field and Jon Broxton who WAS going to close until Aroldis Chapman decided he would prefer to be in the pen instead of start. Nevertheless, the Reds do have a strong rotation with Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, Bronson Arroyo and Homer Bailey. The bullpen was strong before Chapman's move and is now elite. Joey Votto could be the best hitter in baseball and is surrounded by Choo, Jay Bruce, Brandon Phillips and Todd
Frazier.
Player to Watch: Billy Hamilton - Billy Hamilton is making the move from shortstop to the outfield. He is a terror on the base paths, stealing 155 bags over 132 games in A and AA ball last season. He also appears to have a good eye as he collected 86 walks in the same period. Ryan Ludwick is a solid cog for the Reds, but if he should falter or a player should get injured, Billy will literally sprint onto the scene.
St. Louis Cardinals o/u 86 --- TRE says Over
Beating the Reds will be hard
and although they're not loaded with stars
They have the depth to compete
and a Kozma named Pete
Is 2013 the year of the Cards?
To me the Cardinals don't have enough with aging start Carlos Beltran and Matt Holliday to win the division. David Freese is already hurt and although Allen Craig can hit, he's also frequently injured. Stud prospect OF Oscar Taveras is probably one more year away, so they need to hold on with what they have. The starters are led by newly inked Adam Wainwright and Lance Lynn who are both good. Jaime Garcia is also solid and Jake Westbrook is serviceable. The bullpen is also good with Jason Motte and young flamethrower Trevor Rosenthal.
Player to Watch: Shelby Miller - Starter Shelby Miller could be a rookie of the year contender. The 2009 first round pick has a big fastball with movement. His two seamer has some sinking action and he has a 12-6 curve not unlike Adam Wainwright. He has the #5 starter job and he could be a difference maker for this team.
Milwaukee Brewers o/u 79.5 --- TRE says Over
Speculation of Ryan Braun goes on
The HGH user list he's upon
If Selig comes calling
the Brewers will be falling
And hopes of post season will be gone
The Brewers have some good players surrounding Braun, but none exceptional. The pitching staff is led by Yovani Gallardo and there are some young arms on the back end. Kyle Lohse has recently signed as well, which at a minimum adds depth and at maximum adds an all-star. Corey Hart is hurt and will be out until at least May. Rickie Weeks is coming off a poor season and Norichiki Aoki and Carlos Gomez are coming off surprisingly good seasons. I expect all three to return to the mean.
Player to Watch: John Axford - The Brewers don't have the best bullpen and John Axford is coming off a poor season. His ERA jumped from 1.95 to 4.67 and his walks went from 25 to 39.
Pittsburgh Pirates o/u 77.5 --- TRE says Over
When you're sucking for so very long
Every move seems to go wrong
But you get some first rounders
That don't come up and flounder
And your fans will sing a different song
Superstar Andrew McCutchen and the Pirates continue to grow and hope springs anew. The interesting thing about hop in Pittsburgh is that playoffs isn't so much the goal as getting to .500. The starting pitching is OK with AJ Burnett, James McDonald and Wandy Rodriguez. Young phenom starters Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon are still in the minors but on the verge of cracking into the majors. The corner outfield situation is a bit of a mess and Pittsburgh is looking for Starling Marte, Travis Snider or Jose Tabata to make a step forward.
Player to Watch: Pedro Alvarez - Two years ago Pedro Alvarez was expected to be a big time homerun threat and instead he hit .191 and spent much of the year in AAA. Last year, opinion was not so high and Alvarez came through and hit 30 homeruns. This year projections are once again high.
Chicago Cubs o/u 72.5 --- TRE says under
Another bleak year in Wrigley ahead
or at least that's what many have said
Anthony Rizzo can hit a ton
but as long as they got Scott Hairston
Their chances of the playoffs are dead.
The Cubs haven't been in the playoffs since 2008 and working on a rebuild. They signed my boyfriend Edwin Jackson who I badly wanted the Twins to land and they also brought in Carlos Villanueva, Scott Feldman and Scott Baker. Baker is already on the 60 day DL (shocker), so he'll miss at least the first two months of the season. Jeff Samarzija might be the ace of this staff; he struck out 180 batters last year.. They are shopping Alfonso Soriano and really Rizzo and Starlin Castro are the only above league average players they have. Jorge Soler and Javier Baez await opportunity in the minors and it will probably be sooner than later. In addition, you can expect the Cubs to be active in the free agent market next season -- perhaps targeting someone like Ellsbury. Until then it's Luis Valbuena, David DeJesus and pray for Rizzo.
Player to Watch: Anthony Rizzo - If you're watching the Cubs lineup, you're watching for Rizzo. Last year as a 22 year old he hit 342/405/696 in AAA and then upon call-up he hit 285/342/463 with 15 homers in 337 ABs.
1. Cincinnati Reds
2. St. Louis Cardinals
3. Milwaukee Brewers
4. Pittsburgh Pirates
5. Chicago Cubs
Team by Team Preview:
Cincinnati Reds o/u 91 wins --- TRE says: Over
Aroldis Chapman decides to barter
Out of his role as a starter
His arm is a rocket
And although he does knock it
A starters' role is is much harder
The Reds should once again compete for the division crown after winning in 2012 and 2010. Their biggest additions were Shin-Shoo Choo who will lead off and play center field and Jon Broxton who WAS going to close until Aroldis Chapman decided he would prefer to be in the pen instead of start. Nevertheless, the Reds do have a strong rotation with Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, Bronson Arroyo and Homer Bailey. The bullpen was strong before Chapman's move and is now elite. Joey Votto could be the best hitter in baseball and is surrounded by Choo, Jay Bruce, Brandon Phillips and Todd
Frazier.
Player to Watch: Billy Hamilton - Billy Hamilton is making the move from shortstop to the outfield. He is a terror on the base paths, stealing 155 bags over 132 games in A and AA ball last season. He also appears to have a good eye as he collected 86 walks in the same period. Ryan Ludwick is a solid cog for the Reds, but if he should falter or a player should get injured, Billy will literally sprint onto the scene.
St. Louis Cardinals o/u 86 --- TRE says Over
Beating the Reds will be hard
and although they're not loaded with stars
They have the depth to compete
and a Kozma named Pete
Is 2013 the year of the Cards?
To me the Cardinals don't have enough with aging start Carlos Beltran and Matt Holliday to win the division. David Freese is already hurt and although Allen Craig can hit, he's also frequently injured. Stud prospect OF Oscar Taveras is probably one more year away, so they need to hold on with what they have. The starters are led by newly inked Adam Wainwright and Lance Lynn who are both good. Jaime Garcia is also solid and Jake Westbrook is serviceable. The bullpen is also good with Jason Motte and young flamethrower Trevor Rosenthal.
Player to Watch: Shelby Miller - Starter Shelby Miller could be a rookie of the year contender. The 2009 first round pick has a big fastball with movement. His two seamer has some sinking action and he has a 12-6 curve not unlike Adam Wainwright. He has the #5 starter job and he could be a difference maker for this team.
Milwaukee Brewers o/u 79.5 --- TRE says Over
Speculation of Ryan Braun goes on
The HGH user list he's upon
If Selig comes calling
the Brewers will be falling
And hopes of post season will be gone
The Brewers have some good players surrounding Braun, but none exceptional. The pitching staff is led by Yovani Gallardo and there are some young arms on the back end. Kyle Lohse has recently signed as well, which at a minimum adds depth and at maximum adds an all-star. Corey Hart is hurt and will be out until at least May. Rickie Weeks is coming off a poor season and Norichiki Aoki and Carlos Gomez are coming off surprisingly good seasons. I expect all three to return to the mean.
Player to Watch: John Axford - The Brewers don't have the best bullpen and John Axford is coming off a poor season. His ERA jumped from 1.95 to 4.67 and his walks went from 25 to 39.
Pittsburgh Pirates o/u 77.5 --- TRE says Over
When you're sucking for so very long
Every move seems to go wrong
But you get some first rounders
That don't come up and flounder
And your fans will sing a different song
Superstar Andrew McCutchen and the Pirates continue to grow and hope springs anew. The interesting thing about hop in Pittsburgh is that playoffs isn't so much the goal as getting to .500. The starting pitching is OK with AJ Burnett, James McDonald and Wandy Rodriguez. Young phenom starters Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon are still in the minors but on the verge of cracking into the majors. The corner outfield situation is a bit of a mess and Pittsburgh is looking for Starling Marte, Travis Snider or Jose Tabata to make a step forward.
Player to Watch: Pedro Alvarez - Two years ago Pedro Alvarez was expected to be a big time homerun threat and instead he hit .191 and spent much of the year in AAA. Last year, opinion was not so high and Alvarez came through and hit 30 homeruns. This year projections are once again high.
 |
| Rizzo! |
Chicago Cubs o/u 72.5 --- TRE says under
Another bleak year in Wrigley ahead
or at least that's what many have said
Anthony Rizzo can hit a ton
but as long as they got Scott Hairston
Their chances of the playoffs are dead.
The Cubs haven't been in the playoffs since 2008 and working on a rebuild. They signed my boyfriend Edwin Jackson who I badly wanted the Twins to land and they also brought in Carlos Villanueva, Scott Feldman and Scott Baker. Baker is already on the 60 day DL (shocker), so he'll miss at least the first two months of the season. Jeff Samarzija might be the ace of this staff; he struck out 180 batters last year.. They are shopping Alfonso Soriano and really Rizzo and Starlin Castro are the only above league average players they have. Jorge Soler and Javier Baez await opportunity in the minors and it will probably be sooner than later. In addition, you can expect the Cubs to be active in the free agent market next season -- perhaps targeting someone like Ellsbury. Until then it's Luis Valbuena, David DeJesus and pray for Rizzo.
Player to Watch: Anthony Rizzo - If you're watching the Cubs lineup, you're watching for Rizzo. Last year as a 22 year old he hit 342/405/696 in AAA and then upon call-up he hit 285/342/463 with 15 homers in 337 ABs.
NL East Preview
.
I have succumbed to baseball fever and I'm looking forward to the season. I'll do a review of each division on this blog, hopefully finishing up by opening day or at least that week. Let's not get greedy. I'm not doing haikus this year because apparently ESPN is doing that now and screw them. Let's try something else. I'll also list the projected o/u for wins and give you my take.
The NL East is has two great teams, one very good team and two clunkers and I project the finish to be as follows:
1. Braves
2. Nationals
3. Phillies
4. Mets
5. Marlins
Atlanta Braves o/u 88 wins --- TRE says: Over
The Braves got two brothers named Upton
Together in the outfield they'll be sumpin'
They'll be soul patrollin' the yard
With sweet swinging Heyward
And an old guy on the hill named Hudson
The Braves load up with both Upton brothers and have Freddie Freeman and Jason Heyward coming into their own as legit stars. The bullpen is among the best in the game with Craig Kimbrel coming off perhaps the best season for a relief pitcher in baseball history. Veteran Tim Hudson leads the staff, but Kris Medlen had a fantastic 12 starts at the end of 2012. Mike Minor had a capable first full year and is the lone lefty on the staff.
Player to watch -- Julio Teheran: Julio was once considered among the top pitching prospects in all of baseball. He sucked the big one in AAA last year with a 5+ ERA, but came into spring firing bullets. In 26 innings, he had a 1.04 ERA and struck out 35. He had a 0.62 WHIP, giving up just 7 hist and 9 walks. He has a big fastball but now seems to have a handle on the sinker and the curveball as well.
Washington Nationals o/u 92 wins --- TRE says: Under
Bryce Harper's a cock and you know it.
Paints his face and cries and throws shit.
Not too many complain,
Even though he's pain
Since the scoreboard might break from homeruns hit.
Most have the Nationals winning the division and I don't blame them. They may have the best starting rotation in baseball with Strasburg, Gonzalez, Zimmermann, Haren and Detwiler. They've added Rafael Soriano to an already strong bullpen that features Drew Storen and Tyler Clippard. Twins fans are aware the Denard Span is now patrolling center field and phenom Bryce Harper has moved to left field to accommodate him. The infield is filled with vets that have had success, including third baseman Ryan Zimmerman. However, Zimmerman and LaRoche both have injury histories and the Nationals will need a full season from them both.
Player to Watch: Ian Desmond - The shortstop had a breakthrough 2012 where he had a 17 homer increase over the prior year (25). Just as importantly, his average and OBP also jumped 40+ points. He still doesn't walk a ton, but if the power and average remains he can be a difference maker at short. He enters the "golden" 27 year old season this year, which many consider the peak season for a MLBer.
Philadelphia Phillies o/u 85 wins --- TRE says: Over
The Phils are old and disgusting
Howard and Utley have swings that are rusting.
Roy Halladay's arm
Is causing alarm
And in left-field Delmon be hustling!
The Phillies still boast a solid starting rotation with Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay. However, Halladay appears to be struggling this spring. He's been beat like a pinata and has had some velocity issues. His last outing he was up to 89-90 mph though, so this could be much ado about nothing. If you think the pitching staff is old, get a load of the infield. Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins are the core of the team and each have the ability to drop like flies during the year. They added Michael Young so the average age of the infield would go down. Ben Revere and Dominic Brown are the youth movement and could provide a needed punch.
Player to Watch: Dominic Brown - Brown has been hyped as a top Phillies prospect for years now. He'll finally have a job all to himself after a massive spring. In 90 at bats he posted a 1.047 OPS and hit 7 homers. In 2011 he was the top prospect in baseball, it's amazing how players can be forgotten in 2 years.
New York Mets o/u 74.5 --- TRE says: Under
Amway out front of the gate
The Mets need some cash - Donate!
The Citi Field is nice
Just take my advice
To see decent baseball just wait
The Mets are in the midst of a rebuild that's been going on for oh, 7 years? They do have some young pitchers that look ready to step forward. Jon Niese is 26 and is coming off of a 15 season. Dillon Gee and Matt Harvey both will be experiencing their first full season in the majors. Harvey is a 2010 first round pick and has big time stuff. Shaun Marcum and Johan Santana were supposed to fill out the rotation, but Santana is already gone for the year again and Marcum is banged up as well. The offense is led by David Wright and the power of Ike Davis. The outfield is a mess with Collin Cowgill, Marlon Bird and Lucas Duda out there. Duda is the only one with potential to have a big year as he has loads of power.
Player to Watch: Travis D'Arnaud: D'Arnaud was the main piece the Mets received in the R.A. Dickey trade. He's a catcher that's shown big time power, albeit in the PCL. The Mets are saving another year of control by sending him to AAA for the start of the season, but he's likely to be up this year.
Miami Marlins o/u 64 --- TRE says: Over
Marlins trade all in a sale of fire
With just Stanton left things are dire
7 months after a new park
Is a bit early to jump the shark
Jeffrey Loria once again in the mire
What to say about the Marlins? They traded most of their players of note in the off-season after opening a brand new stadium in 2012. Do you remember the hype of 2012 with Ozzie Guillen, Jose Reyes, Heath Bell and Mark Buehrle all coming over? I do, and it fell on it's face. They're all gone now as is long time Marlin Josh Johnson. While the Marlins are going to be pretty bad this year, Jeffrey Loria's method of breaking it all down and starting anew has worked for him the past. They kept masher Giancarlo Stanton to build around, but there really isn't much else. Rob Brantly is a nice catching prospect that will have his first full season in the majors. He came from Detroit in the Anibal Sanchez deal. Top prospect Christian Yelich will likely be fast tracked to the majors. Top pitching prospect Jose Fernandez has already made the rotation.
Player to watch: C'mon, you're not watching the Marlins are you?
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| Nats Park |
I have succumbed to baseball fever and I'm looking forward to the season. I'll do a review of each division on this blog, hopefully finishing up by opening day or at least that week. Let's not get greedy. I'm not doing haikus this year because apparently ESPN is doing that now and screw them. Let's try something else. I'll also list the projected o/u for wins and give you my take.
The NL East is has two great teams, one very good team and two clunkers and I project the finish to be as follows:
1. Braves
2. Nationals
3. Phillies
4. Mets
5. Marlins
Team by Team Preview:
Atlanta Braves o/u 88 wins --- TRE says: Over
The Braves got two brothers named Upton
Together in the outfield they'll be sumpin'
They'll be soul patrollin' the yard
With sweet swinging Heyward
And an old guy on the hill named Hudson
The Braves load up with both Upton brothers and have Freddie Freeman and Jason Heyward coming into their own as legit stars. The bullpen is among the best in the game with Craig Kimbrel coming off perhaps the best season for a relief pitcher in baseball history. Veteran Tim Hudson leads the staff, but Kris Medlen had a fantastic 12 starts at the end of 2012. Mike Minor had a capable first full year and is the lone lefty on the staff.
Player to watch -- Julio Teheran: Julio was once considered among the top pitching prospects in all of baseball. He sucked the big one in AAA last year with a 5+ ERA, but came into spring firing bullets. In 26 innings, he had a 1.04 ERA and struck out 35. He had a 0.62 WHIP, giving up just 7 hist and 9 walks. He has a big fastball but now seems to have a handle on the sinker and the curveball as well.
Washington Nationals o/u 92 wins --- TRE says: Under
Bryce Harper's a cock and you know it.
Paints his face and cries and throws shit.
Not too many complain,
Even though he's pain
Since the scoreboard might break from homeruns hit.
Most have the Nationals winning the division and I don't blame them. They may have the best starting rotation in baseball with Strasburg, Gonzalez, Zimmermann, Haren and Detwiler. They've added Rafael Soriano to an already strong bullpen that features Drew Storen and Tyler Clippard. Twins fans are aware the Denard Span is now patrolling center field and phenom Bryce Harper has moved to left field to accommodate him. The infield is filled with vets that have had success, including third baseman Ryan Zimmerman. However, Zimmerman and LaRoche both have injury histories and the Nationals will need a full season from them both.
Player to Watch: Ian Desmond - The shortstop had a breakthrough 2012 where he had a 17 homer increase over the prior year (25). Just as importantly, his average and OBP also jumped 40+ points. He still doesn't walk a ton, but if the power and average remains he can be a difference maker at short. He enters the "golden" 27 year old season this year, which many consider the peak season for a MLBer.
Philadelphia Phillies o/u 85 wins --- TRE says: Over
The Phils are old and disgusting
Howard and Utley have swings that are rusting.
Roy Halladay's arm
Is causing alarm
And in left-field Delmon be hustling!
The Phillies still boast a solid starting rotation with Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay. However, Halladay appears to be struggling this spring. He's been beat like a pinata and has had some velocity issues. His last outing he was up to 89-90 mph though, so this could be much ado about nothing. If you think the pitching staff is old, get a load of the infield. Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins are the core of the team and each have the ability to drop like flies during the year. They added Michael Young so the average age of the infield would go down. Ben Revere and Dominic Brown are the youth movement and could provide a needed punch.
Player to Watch: Dominic Brown - Brown has been hyped as a top Phillies prospect for years now. He'll finally have a job all to himself after a massive spring. In 90 at bats he posted a 1.047 OPS and hit 7 homers. In 2011 he was the top prospect in baseball, it's amazing how players can be forgotten in 2 years.
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| Duda Cowboy |
Amway out front of the gate
The Mets need some cash - Donate!
The Citi Field is nice
Just take my advice
To see decent baseball just wait
The Mets are in the midst of a rebuild that's been going on for oh, 7 years? They do have some young pitchers that look ready to step forward. Jon Niese is 26 and is coming off of a 15 season. Dillon Gee and Matt Harvey both will be experiencing their first full season in the majors. Harvey is a 2010 first round pick and has big time stuff. Shaun Marcum and Johan Santana were supposed to fill out the rotation, but Santana is already gone for the year again and Marcum is banged up as well. The offense is led by David Wright and the power of Ike Davis. The outfield is a mess with Collin Cowgill, Marlon Bird and Lucas Duda out there. Duda is the only one with potential to have a big year as he has loads of power.
Player to Watch: Travis D'Arnaud: D'Arnaud was the main piece the Mets received in the R.A. Dickey trade. He's a catcher that's shown big time power, albeit in the PCL. The Mets are saving another year of control by sending him to AAA for the start of the season, but he's likely to be up this year.
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| Loriaface |
Miami Marlins o/u 64 --- TRE says: Over
Marlins trade all in a sale of fire
With just Stanton left things are dire
7 months after a new park
Is a bit early to jump the shark
Jeffrey Loria once again in the mire
What to say about the Marlins? They traded most of their players of note in the off-season after opening a brand new stadium in 2012. Do you remember the hype of 2012 with Ozzie Guillen, Jose Reyes, Heath Bell and Mark Buehrle all coming over? I do, and it fell on it's face. They're all gone now as is long time Marlin Josh Johnson. While the Marlins are going to be pretty bad this year, Jeffrey Loria's method of breaking it all down and starting anew has worked for him the past. They kept masher Giancarlo Stanton to build around, but there really isn't much else. Rob Brantly is a nice catching prospect that will have his first full season in the majors. He came from Detroit in the Anibal Sanchez deal. Top prospect Christian Yelich will likely be fast tracked to the majors. Top pitching prospect Jose Fernandez has already made the rotation.
Player to watch: C'mon, you're not watching the Marlins are you?
Thursday, March 28, 2013
Swing and a Miss (bring on Flip)
You have to hand it to Norwood Teague, the man's got balls. To fire Tubby Smith after the Gophers won an NCAA Tournament game for the first time in forever was gutsy. To do it so quickly after the Gophers were ousted by Florida said to me that Teague had a plan in place and was moving quickly to make it a reality. And now, with Shaka Smart signing an extension through 2023 to stay at VCU I fear things are going to becoming quite icky.
In my mind there's only one more home run hire, and that's Flip (and yes, Brad Stevens but you can forget it). Flip comes with plenty of question marks (but who doesn't) but he's the one I think can be an almost instant program changer. Three things I love:
1) He has a love for the program and the city loves him. There's something about bringing passion to your team that goes deeper than just being the coach that seems to resonate, and having a town behind you can raise the excitement level further which can only help with recruiting and fundraising (which is needed for a practice facility which I'm told is needed to aid recruiting).
2) He already has a relationship with the Big 3. Going beyond that his connections within NBA circles are only going to make playing for him that much more enticing. If Flip ends up being the hire in my opinion getting all three of them at the U suddenly is actually a possibility and I would almost guarantee at least one would stay home. If the hire ends up being anybody else, I'm not optimistic even one becomes a Gopher.
3) He can play a pro-style offense. There's evidence that playing an NBA style game can work at the college level (Florida Gulf Coast's coach is an ex-NBA assistant and he has them playing an NBA type game) so not only can that help win games but it's exciting - which recruits love - and helps players prepare for the NBA - which recruits love.
Last coaching search I was anti-Flip because he was an NBA guy, not a college guy. This time I am all in on Flip for the opposite reason.
My concern is that Teague might not even consider him, because of ego (and I'm not using ego in the negative sense here). Firing Tubby when he did was Teague's way of announcing that this is his athletic department and this is his chance to make a big-time hire, but I can't help but wonder if he'd view hiring Flip as more of Saunders making the decision to come here rather than Teague hiring him. What I mean is, I can see it being looked at as a "Flip hire" rather than a "Teague hire" and I don't know how else to explain it so if you don't get it either you're an idiot or I am and I'm betting it's you.
I think part of it is the Villa 7 thing they've built up, and I don't doubt it's a great thing for all involved, but I can't help but wonder if they're limiting their options by using Villa 7 exclusively when evaluating their options. The top 2 names out there right now seems to Buzz Williams (/makes wanking motion) and Anthony Grant (/yawn) and both have connections to Villa 7. Oh and by the way, there's no reason Buzz Williams would come to Minnesota from Marquette. None. So just stop it. Neither is Fred Hoiberg or any other dream candidate.
I think the plan was Shaka or bust, and they've gone bust. Time to reevaluate and strongly consider Flip Saunders if you're looking for a game changer. Anybody else and we're looking at a slow build, and we just went through a slow build that ended with a whimper on the eve of the best recruiting class the state of Minnesota has ever produced. I can't believe I'm typing this, but the Gophers need Flip.
But I'm pretty sure it's going to be Anthony Grant, which may very well turn out to be great in the long run. I'm just sick of the long run.
In my mind there's only one more home run hire, and that's Flip (and yes, Brad Stevens but you can forget it). Flip comes with plenty of question marks (but who doesn't) but he's the one I think can be an almost instant program changer. Three things I love:
1) He has a love for the program and the city loves him. There's something about bringing passion to your team that goes deeper than just being the coach that seems to resonate, and having a town behind you can raise the excitement level further which can only help with recruiting and fundraising (which is needed for a practice facility which I'm told is needed to aid recruiting).
2) He already has a relationship with the Big 3. Going beyond that his connections within NBA circles are only going to make playing for him that much more enticing. If Flip ends up being the hire in my opinion getting all three of them at the U suddenly is actually a possibility and I would almost guarantee at least one would stay home. If the hire ends up being anybody else, I'm not optimistic even one becomes a Gopher.
3) He can play a pro-style offense. There's evidence that playing an NBA style game can work at the college level (Florida Gulf Coast's coach is an ex-NBA assistant and he has them playing an NBA type game) so not only can that help win games but it's exciting - which recruits love - and helps players prepare for the NBA - which recruits love.
Last coaching search I was anti-Flip because he was an NBA guy, not a college guy. This time I am all in on Flip for the opposite reason.
My concern is that Teague might not even consider him, because of ego (and I'm not using ego in the negative sense here). Firing Tubby when he did was Teague's way of announcing that this is his athletic department and this is his chance to make a big-time hire, but I can't help but wonder if he'd view hiring Flip as more of Saunders making the decision to come here rather than Teague hiring him. What I mean is, I can see it being looked at as a "Flip hire" rather than a "Teague hire" and I don't know how else to explain it so if you don't get it either you're an idiot or I am and I'm betting it's you.
I think part of it is the Villa 7 thing they've built up, and I don't doubt it's a great thing for all involved, but I can't help but wonder if they're limiting their options by using Villa 7 exclusively when evaluating their options. The top 2 names out there right now seems to Buzz Williams (/makes wanking motion) and Anthony Grant (/yawn) and both have connections to Villa 7. Oh and by the way, there's no reason Buzz Williams would come to Minnesota from Marquette. None. So just stop it. Neither is Fred Hoiberg or any other dream candidate.
I think the plan was Shaka or bust, and they've gone bust. Time to reevaluate and strongly consider Flip Saunders if you're looking for a game changer. Anybody else and we're looking at a slow build, and we just went through a slow build that ended with a whimper on the eve of the best recruiting class the state of Minnesota has ever produced. I can't believe I'm typing this, but the Gophers need Flip.
But I'm pretty sure it's going to be Anthony Grant, which may very well turn out to be great in the long run. I'm just sick of the long run.
Tuesday, March 26, 2013
Where to now?
Things move pretty fast. Before I could even finish wondering what I was going to write about the Gophers this weekend while trying to piece together what actually happened from Bogart and Bear, the Gophers are done, Tubby is out, and it already feels like old news that the Gophers won a game, so it's time to move one. A few notes from our weekend in Chicago:
1. Andre Hollins is awesome, and would be even more so if he didn't have to be the #1 ball-handler.
2. I think I'm going to miss Rodney Williams more than any other Gopher I can remember, just because you knew he was going to do something in almost every game that would make your jaw drop.
3. When the waitress describes a Tucson Trashcan as "basically a Long-Island Iced tea but with red bull instead of coke and it comes in a 32-oz glass" you're probably better off skipping it, and it's definitely not wise to have each person order their own particularly at one in the afternoon.
4. The biggest danger of firing Tubby, in my opinion, isn't that it might hurt getting Travis, Vaughn, or Jones because I have yet to hear or read anything that makes me think Tubby was remotely close to landing any of those guys. I think the biggest danger is losing anyone off this year's team, specifically the Hollins's or Elliason because I don't know how you'd replace any of them.
So now what? I know the majority of hardcore Gopher fans either straight up wanted Tubby fired or, like me, certainly don't have a problem with it but the odds are just as great this is a step back as much as it is a step forward. Despite all the issues and wasted opportunities Tubby Smith certainly wasn't a "terrible" coach even if I called him such in the heat of the moment. He brought respectability back to the program, getting top 100 recruits to come to Minneapolis (and some of them even stayed), keeping the top Minnesota kids home (except for the one who got kicked out), and bringing the Gophers to 3 NCAA Tournaments in six years, a monumental task when you look at the years prior to his arrival, even winning a game this year.
Given all that, from the outside I can understand some of confusion about this move around the nation, even if the anger is pretty clearly misplaced and coming from somewhere it shouldn't, but anyone who follows the program knows this is as far as Smith is taking the Gophers, that much became clear and despite what some analysts think I believe we can get more out of this program. There is plenty of risk as I mentioned because it's not easy to recruit here - no practice facility, it's freezing during the biggest recruiting period (which means all the girls are bundled up which gives southern teams another advantage), and although if you grew up with the Barn you love it you could make a pretty compelling argument to a 17-18 year old kid that it's a dump. With Nebraska throwing all that money at the basketball program, Iowa returning to respectability, and Iowa State and Fred Hoiberg suddenly a hot destination things are just going to get tougher. Remember when Glen Mason was fired for being consistently mediocre which led to the program falling off a cliff? That's why this hire needs to be a home run.
Who would be a home run? I see three different tiers of hire:
1) The dream hires. Shaka Smart starts this list, and with his past with Teague and Ellis it's more possible than many seem to think, although with UCLA out there as well that makes it a bit more iffy, in my opinion. He has risk - specifically if he can recruit at this level if Havoc will work in the Big 10 (Michigan says no) - but he's still the #1 hire out there because every other dream hire has risks as well. I'd put just three other guys up here and two of them (Gregg Marshall, Brad Stevens) would have recruiting questions (and I don't think either would take the job) and Flip Saunders certainly has connections but who knows if he can coach or recruit at this level? Based on the success of Hoiberg in Ames, however, as well as Flip's clear passion for the program that jumps out if you follow him on Twitter he's won me over from "Meh" to "Yeah, I'll call him a dream hire."
1a) There's a few guys I can think of who although I wouldn't consider them "dream hires" I wouldn't hate them like the tier 3 guys below either - Chris Mack (Xavier), Anthony Grant (Alabama), Josh Pastner (Memphis), Buzz Williams (Marquette) - and a few others I can't think of off the top of my head. Although I'd be on board with these guys and others, I doubt any of them take the job. If they do, we re-evaluate, but I'd consider any of those guys as a good pick up.
2) Good hires who will underwhelm based on name alone. Closely related to tier 3 below, it's tough to really call out any of these because by definition they're guys very few of us will have heard of who Teague and Ellis identified thanks to the Villa 7 program. This could be anyone from the Florida Gulf Coast guy (I trust these guys can recognize a flash-in-the-pan vs. an actual coaching genius) or an assistant from some other program (although please not anyone from Wisconsin, I couldn't handle that style of play). This will be the kind of hire that will get plenty of less informed fans all riled up and get guys like Mike Wilbon to gloat about the Gophers making a mistake letting Tubby go. Trust me, if Teague goes in this direction you should consider that a positive. The real mistake would be hiring someone from tier 3.
3) Bad hires with name recognition. Chris Mooney would be a terrible hire because he's just like Dan Monson, who got hot at the right time and then sucked. Richmond has been horrible since they're sweet 16 run a couple of years ago. Ben Howland would be terrible because he was just run out of UCLA and would just be another Tubby Smith hire. I kind of feel the same way about Jay Wright from Villanova, but I'd place him a step above these guys I guess. Bruce Pearl is super duper annoying and can't really coach although he's a hell of a recruiter as long as he's cheating, and I've always supported cheating but I still don't really want this guy.
Bottom line? I think Teague was pretty much ready to make a change when he arrived, and this season confirmed in his mind that he could do better. I think he and Ellis are very confident in their ability to land a coach who can bring this program to the next level after their success with Anthony Grant, Shaka Smart, and the overall success of coaches connected to the Villa 7 program. I was ready for a change as well, so I'm willing to believe in them until they give me a reason not to. I was behind Tubby for five years, so I'm willing to give the new management at least that long.
Probably.
1. Andre Hollins is awesome, and would be even more so if he didn't have to be the #1 ball-handler.
2. I think I'm going to miss Rodney Williams more than any other Gopher I can remember, just because you knew he was going to do something in almost every game that would make your jaw drop.
3. When the waitress describes a Tucson Trashcan as "basically a Long-Island Iced tea but with red bull instead of coke and it comes in a 32-oz glass" you're probably better off skipping it, and it's definitely not wise to have each person order their own particularly at one in the afternoon.
4. The biggest danger of firing Tubby, in my opinion, isn't that it might hurt getting Travis, Vaughn, or Jones because I have yet to hear or read anything that makes me think Tubby was remotely close to landing any of those guys. I think the biggest danger is losing anyone off this year's team, specifically the Hollins's or Elliason because I don't know how you'd replace any of them.
So now what? I know the majority of hardcore Gopher fans either straight up wanted Tubby fired or, like me, certainly don't have a problem with it but the odds are just as great this is a step back as much as it is a step forward. Despite all the issues and wasted opportunities Tubby Smith certainly wasn't a "terrible" coach even if I called him such in the heat of the moment. He brought respectability back to the program, getting top 100 recruits to come to Minneapolis (and some of them even stayed), keeping the top Minnesota kids home (except for the one who got kicked out), and bringing the Gophers to 3 NCAA Tournaments in six years, a monumental task when you look at the years prior to his arrival, even winning a game this year.
Given all that, from the outside I can understand some of confusion about this move around the nation, even if the anger is pretty clearly misplaced and coming from somewhere it shouldn't, but anyone who follows the program knows this is as far as Smith is taking the Gophers, that much became clear and despite what some analysts think I believe we can get more out of this program. There is plenty of risk as I mentioned because it's not easy to recruit here - no practice facility, it's freezing during the biggest recruiting period (which means all the girls are bundled up which gives southern teams another advantage), and although if you grew up with the Barn you love it you could make a pretty compelling argument to a 17-18 year old kid that it's a dump. With Nebraska throwing all that money at the basketball program, Iowa returning to respectability, and Iowa State and Fred Hoiberg suddenly a hot destination things are just going to get tougher. Remember when Glen Mason was fired for being consistently mediocre which led to the program falling off a cliff? That's why this hire needs to be a home run.
Who would be a home run? I see three different tiers of hire:
1) The dream hires. Shaka Smart starts this list, and with his past with Teague and Ellis it's more possible than many seem to think, although with UCLA out there as well that makes it a bit more iffy, in my opinion. He has risk - specifically if he can recruit at this level if Havoc will work in the Big 10 (Michigan says no) - but he's still the #1 hire out there because every other dream hire has risks as well. I'd put just three other guys up here and two of them (Gregg Marshall, Brad Stevens) would have recruiting questions (and I don't think either would take the job) and Flip Saunders certainly has connections but who knows if he can coach or recruit at this level? Based on the success of Hoiberg in Ames, however, as well as Flip's clear passion for the program that jumps out if you follow him on Twitter he's won me over from "Meh" to "Yeah, I'll call him a dream hire."
1a) There's a few guys I can think of who although I wouldn't consider them "dream hires" I wouldn't hate them like the tier 3 guys below either - Chris Mack (Xavier), Anthony Grant (Alabama), Josh Pastner (Memphis), Buzz Williams (Marquette) - and a few others I can't think of off the top of my head. Although I'd be on board with these guys and others, I doubt any of them take the job. If they do, we re-evaluate, but I'd consider any of those guys as a good pick up.
2) Good hires who will underwhelm based on name alone. Closely related to tier 3 below, it's tough to really call out any of these because by definition they're guys very few of us will have heard of who Teague and Ellis identified thanks to the Villa 7 program. This could be anyone from the Florida Gulf Coast guy (I trust these guys can recognize a flash-in-the-pan vs. an actual coaching genius) or an assistant from some other program (although please not anyone from Wisconsin, I couldn't handle that style of play). This will be the kind of hire that will get plenty of less informed fans all riled up and get guys like Mike Wilbon to gloat about the Gophers making a mistake letting Tubby go. Trust me, if Teague goes in this direction you should consider that a positive. The real mistake would be hiring someone from tier 3.
3) Bad hires with name recognition. Chris Mooney would be a terrible hire because he's just like Dan Monson, who got hot at the right time and then sucked. Richmond has been horrible since they're sweet 16 run a couple of years ago. Ben Howland would be terrible because he was just run out of UCLA and would just be another Tubby Smith hire. I kind of feel the same way about Jay Wright from Villanova, but I'd place him a step above these guys I guess. Bruce Pearl is super duper annoying and can't really coach although he's a hell of a recruiter as long as he's cheating, and I've always supported cheating but I still don't really want this guy.
Bottom line? I think Teague was pretty much ready to make a change when he arrived, and this season confirmed in his mind that he could do better. I think he and Ellis are very confident in their ability to land a coach who can bring this program to the next level after their success with Anthony Grant, Shaka Smart, and the overall success of coaches connected to the Villa 7 program. I was ready for a change as well, so I'm willing to believe in them until they give me a reason not to. I was behind Tubby for five years, so I'm willing to give the new management at least that long.
Probably.
Monday, March 25, 2013
Tubby Time Is Up
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| "You see, we started like this, and then..." |
DWG is right that this isn't a time for celebration, but it was definitely the right move to send Tubby packing and move on. It appears many want to make excuses for Tubby and give him the benefit of the doubt for 6 years of meh; but I'm done giving him a break. Years ago I was the guy that would laugh at those that called for his head as he dealt with players leaving and injuries and disappointing finishes.
However premature those people were, they weren't necessarily wrong. I thought this year might be the year that Tubby finally came through on the promise of being a B1G contender and he gave us a tie for 7th place with an 8-10 record? After going 15-1, they finish out going 6-12? They sported a 3-8 record on the road? For all of the big wins this team had, and they had plenty, they doubled up on mediocre and disappointing performances. Hell, even Dan Monson had two seasons in his chocolate fountain of a tenure where he was above .500 in B1G play. Tubby never managed to do it and finished 46-62 in the Big Ten overall. He did manage our first non-abdicated tourney win since 1990, which is pretty awesome. Basically we haven't done shit since I've had a side-spike unless we were cheating.
Based on the press conference today, Norwood Teague sounds serious about turning this program around. It's nice to hear some conviction in a time where most are probably ready to help tear down the Barn and sell the pieces for scrap. Norwood for one is satisfied with getting kicked in the nuts every February and neither am I. Now we also find out how well Teague can rally the boosters and gather funds as well as conduct a coaching search. I think many expect a new practice facility and other perks (private jets, yo?) might be part of the pitch to lure a new head coach into Minnesota. In addition, moving quickly allows the new coach to take a stab at changing some minds in recruiting as well as keeping what players Tubby did sign in the fold.
He Gone
I certainly wasn't expected to be writing this post quite this quickly, but it's now confirmed that Tubby is out at Minnesota. I actually thought the first round win over UCLA would save him, but apparently not and so it's time to move on.
I expect there to be plenty of shock and outrage in the National Media talking about "who do the Gophers think they are" and what not, but I'm sorry there's not reason this program shouldn't be at least the NCAA hunt every single year. Perhaps worst of all was watching Smith's seemingly inability to coach, whether game planning before the game or in-game adjustments. Add in the state of recruiting and the importance of getting at least one of Tyus Jones, Rashad Vaugh, or Reid Travis and it makes sense to move quickly The simple fact alone that I wrote like four different posts wondering what was wrong with Smith tells me all I need to know about it being time to move on.
So now we wait. I'll have plenty more posts coming about the coaching possibilities as well as recapping the Gophers weekend and trying to remember anything that happened in Chicago this weekend, but I wanted to get these thoughts up quickly. I'm not celebrating Tubby's firing today, but I do think it was the right move. Hard to believe it's been that long since the Smith hiring and the program is only slightly better off that where it was when Tubby took over. Hell, I started this blog within a few days of his hiring, so it would probably make sense to shut 'er down along with Tubby - but I'm not going to.
I'll be back with more later. Probably.
I expect there to be plenty of shock and outrage in the National Media talking about "who do the Gophers think they are" and what not, but I'm sorry there's not reason this program shouldn't be at least the NCAA hunt every single year. Perhaps worst of all was watching Smith's seemingly inability to coach, whether game planning before the game or in-game adjustments. Add in the state of recruiting and the importance of getting at least one of Tyus Jones, Rashad Vaugh, or Reid Travis and it makes sense to move quickly The simple fact alone that I wrote like four different posts wondering what was wrong with Smith tells me all I need to know about it being time to move on.
So now we wait. I'll have plenty more posts coming about the coaching possibilities as well as recapping the Gophers weekend and trying to remember anything that happened in Chicago this weekend, but I wanted to get these thoughts up quickly. I'm not celebrating Tubby's firing today, but I do think it was the right move. Hard to believe it's been that long since the Smith hiring and the program is only slightly better off that where it was when Tubby took over. Hell, I started this blog within a few days of his hiring, so it would probably make sense to shut 'er down along with Tubby - but I'm not going to.
I'll be back with more later. Probably.
Tuesday, March 19, 2013
NCAA Game #1 Preview: Gophers vs. UCLA
The Gophers are seeded 11th in the NCAA Tournament this week, which was a good break because the sixth seeds as a group are fairly week and pretty vulnerable. Even better, the Gophers couldn't have secured a better match-up than UCLA, which is why, despite all their warts and their limping into the tournament, the Gophers actually find themselves a 3-point favorite.
The biggest issue for UCLA is with an injury, as freshman swingman Jordan Adams, the team's second leading scorer, broke his foot in the Pac-12 tournament semi-final win over Arizona and will miss the remainder of the season (the Bruins then lost in the championship to Oregon by 9). With transfers of some key pieces to begin the year (both Josh Smith and Tyler Lamb bugged out) the Bruins now have just seven players who appeared in more than five games this year. Considering UCLA is an up-tempo team (35th fastest team in D-I) who knows how this affects their game plan, and if there is any foul trouble at all they could be in bad shape quickly.
Also putting them in bad shape? They have absolutely nobody who can guard Trevor Mbakwe. I mean nobody. Their two big men, David and Travis Wear, and neither athletic nor particularly strong. They are finesse bigs, kind of like a really poor man's Cody Zeller, and if you recall Mbakwe had a double-double in both games against Indiana including a 21-12 at Williams where he destroyed Zeller. The Wears do have a couple of inches on him, but I don't expect that to matter. The only other option Ben Howland will have is bringing freshman Tony Parker off the bench, but Parker is raw, fat (6-9, 275 lbs.), and Howland clearly doesn't trust him (averaged just 6 minutes per game and he's played a grand total of 14 minutes in their last six games). Parker may have the strength to at least both Mbakwe a little bit, but in the athleticism department he gets blown away. Another possibility is 6-8 freshman Kyle Anderson, but he's more of a perimeter player (despite averaging 8.6 rebs per game he's not a "on the block" kind of guy). They literally have no other options.
I'm going to stop right here and say this again. UCLA HAS NOBODY WHO CAN GUARD TREVOR MBAKWE. They don't. The Gophers need to feed him the ball. Over and over and over. He should touch the ball in or near the paint on every single possession he's in the game. It's that simple. It should become clear quickly they'll have to double him, and then it will come down to if the Gophers can make open shots. Either than or UCLA will switch to zone, in which case the Gophers offensive rebounding should kill them because the Bruins are a horrible rebounding team. If the Gophers make Mbakwe the focal point of their offense on Friday they should win this game.
I could stop right here, but I want to type more.
First, I don't trust Tubby and/or the players to get Mbakwe the ball on every possession. I'm hoping for the best, but wouldn't be shocked to see him with 4 field goal attempts again. Well, actually he should have more than that because he should end up with 5-8 offensive rebounds himself, but you know what I mean.
Secondly, UCLA has maybe the best individual player in this tournament in Shabazz Muhammad, and that's always a bit terrifying (ask Duke re: Derrick Williams). Sometimes a player like this can get so hot, so dialed in, that nothing a defense can do can stop them and they can carry their team to victory after victory. Muhammad is that kind of talent. He can score inside, he can score outside. He can drive to the paint, he can hit the jumper. If he's fully engaged he's a handful - but therein lies the rub for UCLA.
There have plenty of articles I've seen asking if Muhammad already has one foot out the door to the NBA and pretty much announced he was one and done before recruiting even got serious. Howland already announced he was leaving after this year, and the vibes coming out of Westwood it just feels like everybody's ready to pack-up and move on. From the issues that came out last year with Howland and Reeves Nelson, overall team discipline issues, and several transfers it just feels like everybody is ready to be done and move on (note: sounds like Howland is likely gone, which really creates extra competition for Shaka Smart if the Gophers move in that direction). With a kid who has had "NBA lock" written all over him for years it's not surprising Muhammad has mailed it in a few times this year (double digits rebounds just 3 times this year, 20+ points just once in his last 6 games, one steal in the last 4 combined, the game when he shot 11 three-pointers despite making just two). Who knows what UCLA gets out of him? I read he seemed more intense during the Pac-12 Tournament so maybe they get a fully focused Muhammad, but maybe not.
Outside of Muhammad the offense basically breaks down into North Carolina cast-off Larry Drew (yes, he transferred but the Heel fans were happy to see him go) breaking down his man off the dribble and creating opportunities for the other Bruins (Kyle Anderson, both Wears, and Norman Powell are all decent jump shooters even if none are even mediocre three-point threats). Drew isn't much of a scorer himself but he does do well getting into the lane to set-up others. Outside of not letting Muhammad go off (this is a wonderful test for Rodney Williams to prove his draft worthiness if he gets that call, FYI, although personally I think Austin Hollins is probably a better play) having Dre Hollins be able to handle Drew 1-on-1 is the #1 defensive key to the game.
Let's face it - this game sets up perfectly for the Gophers. What's their #1 strength? Rebounding. What's UCLA's #1 weakness? Rebounding. What's the Gophers #1 weakness? Guarding against the 3 and half-court offense. UCLA? Don't shoot the three at all (and their #1 guy was Adams) and try to run-and-gun which should give the Gophers plenty of transition opportunities. The Bruins #1 strength? They don't turn the ball over, but the Gophers don't rely on turnovers anyway (and they create their additional opportunities from offensive rebounds). Think the "vibe" around this team is off? It's even worse at UCLA where Howland's dismissal slip is probably already half-filled out and most of the players are sick of him (I don't think the Gophers and Tubby have reached this stage yet).
The scariest thing about this game for the Gophers is how perfectly it sets up for the Gophers. As a life long Minnesota sports fan I know that's when things usually go wrong, and yet, as a life long Minnesota sports fan I keep getting sucked back in. I'm buying.
Gophers 73, UCLA 66. Round 2: Gophers 60, Florida 88.
The biggest issue for UCLA is with an injury, as freshman swingman Jordan Adams, the team's second leading scorer, broke his foot in the Pac-12 tournament semi-final win over Arizona and will miss the remainder of the season (the Bruins then lost in the championship to Oregon by 9). With transfers of some key pieces to begin the year (both Josh Smith and Tyler Lamb bugged out) the Bruins now have just seven players who appeared in more than five games this year. Considering UCLA is an up-tempo team (35th fastest team in D-I) who knows how this affects their game plan, and if there is any foul trouble at all they could be in bad shape quickly.
Also putting them in bad shape? They have absolutely nobody who can guard Trevor Mbakwe. I mean nobody. Their two big men, David and Travis Wear, and neither athletic nor particularly strong. They are finesse bigs, kind of like a really poor man's Cody Zeller, and if you recall Mbakwe had a double-double in both games against Indiana including a 21-12 at Williams where he destroyed Zeller. The Wears do have a couple of inches on him, but I don't expect that to matter. The only other option Ben Howland will have is bringing freshman Tony Parker off the bench, but Parker is raw, fat (6-9, 275 lbs.), and Howland clearly doesn't trust him (averaged just 6 minutes per game and he's played a grand total of 14 minutes in their last six games). Parker may have the strength to at least both Mbakwe a little bit, but in the athleticism department he gets blown away. Another possibility is 6-8 freshman Kyle Anderson, but he's more of a perimeter player (despite averaging 8.6 rebs per game he's not a "on the block" kind of guy). They literally have no other options.
I'm going to stop right here and say this again. UCLA HAS NOBODY WHO CAN GUARD TREVOR MBAKWE. They don't. The Gophers need to feed him the ball. Over and over and over. He should touch the ball in or near the paint on every single possession he's in the game. It's that simple. It should become clear quickly they'll have to double him, and then it will come down to if the Gophers can make open shots. Either than or UCLA will switch to zone, in which case the Gophers offensive rebounding should kill them because the Bruins are a horrible rebounding team. If the Gophers make Mbakwe the focal point of their offense on Friday they should win this game.
I could stop right here, but I want to type more.
First, I don't trust Tubby and/or the players to get Mbakwe the ball on every possession. I'm hoping for the best, but wouldn't be shocked to see him with 4 field goal attempts again. Well, actually he should have more than that because he should end up with 5-8 offensive rebounds himself, but you know what I mean.
Secondly, UCLA has maybe the best individual player in this tournament in Shabazz Muhammad, and that's always a bit terrifying (ask Duke re: Derrick Williams). Sometimes a player like this can get so hot, so dialed in, that nothing a defense can do can stop them and they can carry their team to victory after victory. Muhammad is that kind of talent. He can score inside, he can score outside. He can drive to the paint, he can hit the jumper. If he's fully engaged he's a handful - but therein lies the rub for UCLA.
There have plenty of articles I've seen asking if Muhammad already has one foot out the door to the NBA and pretty much announced he was one and done before recruiting even got serious. Howland already announced he was leaving after this year, and the vibes coming out of Westwood it just feels like everybody's ready to pack-up and move on. From the issues that came out last year with Howland and Reeves Nelson, overall team discipline issues, and several transfers it just feels like everybody is ready to be done and move on (note: sounds like Howland is likely gone, which really creates extra competition for Shaka Smart if the Gophers move in that direction). With a kid who has had "NBA lock" written all over him for years it's not surprising Muhammad has mailed it in a few times this year (double digits rebounds just 3 times this year, 20+ points just once in his last 6 games, one steal in the last 4 combined, the game when he shot 11 three-pointers despite making just two). Who knows what UCLA gets out of him? I read he seemed more intense during the Pac-12 Tournament so maybe they get a fully focused Muhammad, but maybe not.
Outside of Muhammad the offense basically breaks down into North Carolina cast-off Larry Drew (yes, he transferred but the Heel fans were happy to see him go) breaking down his man off the dribble and creating opportunities for the other Bruins (Kyle Anderson, both Wears, and Norman Powell are all decent jump shooters even if none are even mediocre three-point threats). Drew isn't much of a scorer himself but he does do well getting into the lane to set-up others. Outside of not letting Muhammad go off (this is a wonderful test for Rodney Williams to prove his draft worthiness if he gets that call, FYI, although personally I think Austin Hollins is probably a better play) having Dre Hollins be able to handle Drew 1-on-1 is the #1 defensive key to the game.
Let's face it - this game sets up perfectly for the Gophers. What's their #1 strength? Rebounding. What's UCLA's #1 weakness? Rebounding. What's the Gophers #1 weakness? Guarding against the 3 and half-court offense. UCLA? Don't shoot the three at all (and their #1 guy was Adams) and try to run-and-gun which should give the Gophers plenty of transition opportunities. The Bruins #1 strength? They don't turn the ball over, but the Gophers don't rely on turnovers anyway (and they create their additional opportunities from offensive rebounds). Think the "vibe" around this team is off? It's even worse at UCLA where Howland's dismissal slip is probably already half-filled out and most of the players are sick of him (I don't think the Gophers and Tubby have reached this stage yet).
The scariest thing about this game for the Gophers is how perfectly it sets up for the Gophers. As a life long Minnesota sports fan I know that's when things usually go wrong, and yet, as a life long Minnesota sports fan I keep getting sucked back in. I'm buying.
Gophers 73, UCLA 66. Round 2: Gophers 60, Florida 88.
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