The Twins are over .500. The hell?

Though being one game over .500 isn't exactly blowing up the league, the Twins had extremely low expectations with a Vegas over/under of 70.5 wins, so being on pace to win something like 84 games represents a substantially better season than expected.  One can't help but wonder how they got here, and if we can expect it to last and maybe see some semi-meaningful baseball in September again for the first time in what feels like forever.

The offense has been about what was expected:  Team overall OPS is .675, last year it was .713.  They're walking a little less and hitting with a little less power so far, but overall nothing out of the ordinary and they've averaged 4.56 runs per game this year compared to 4.41 last year so the offense is fine.  It'd be nice for Kurt Suzuki and Kennys Vargas to start hitting, but the offense is fine.  The defense has been atrocious as expected, so the improvement must have come from the pitching.

Sure enough, team ERA in 2015 is 4.07, down a half a run from 4.58 last year.  Even better, starters' ERA is 4.38, which is 10th worst in the majors but a major upgrade from last year's 5.06 and 2013's 5.26, both dead last in the majors.  Twins' relievers sport an ERA of 3.58, in line with 2014's 3.73 and 2013's 3.50, so any improvement has come from the starting pitching.  Might as well look at all these guys and see who might actually be, like, good.

PHIL HUGHES:  Hughes had a nearly impossible task trying to replicate both a career year and a historic walk/strikeout ratio, but he hasn't come close so far putting up numbers more in line with his Yankee days than last season.  He's still controlling walks well and his strikeouts, though down a bit, are at a nice number, but he's getting killed by home runs, allowing 1.91 HRs per 9 innings after allowing just 0.69 last year.  The good news is that he's allowing a home run on 15.1% of all his fly balls, which is likely an outlier since it would have been the second worst in the majors among starters with at least 150 innings pitched last season, and I'm pretty sure a Phil Hughes making about his half his starts at Target Field isn't going to end up at that number.  He got really lucky about home runs last year (6.2% HR/FB), but his true ability probably lies somewhere in the middle.  He probably won't be as good as last year, but he'll be better than he's been thus far.

KYLE GIBSON:  Gibson's ERA is down almost a full run from last season, but there are some serious red flags here.  His BABIP this year is just .267, below his career average and the league average, and his runners LOB% is 75.8%, which would be a top 30 mark most seasons - both significant indicators of luck.  Alarmingly his K/9 has dropped to 2.79 (from 5.37 last year) which is dead last in the majors, and his walks have jumped by 1 per nine innings at the same time to 3.86, 14th worst in the league.  He's also allowing a career worst 24% line drive rate and 83.6% contact rate.  Seeing as he's shown nothing at all to support his ERA improvement from last season you're looking at a serious regression candidate unless he starts missing some bats.

MIKE PELFREY:  The guy who nobody wanted in the rotation except for him and his family, and Pelfrey's put up a 2.63 ERA in five starts, but don't let that fool you - he's still terrible.  BABIP is .259, LOB % is 83.3%, and HR/9 is just 0.66 - there's no way this keeps up.  Those numbers last season would have ranked 18th, 1st, and 18th - does Pelfrey seem like a Top 20 pitcher to you?  I will say this - his 56% ground ball rate is a very good thing and his hard hit ball percentage is just 18.1%, second in the league and probably fluky but not as definitely fluky as his other peripherals  I'm not buying yet, but he's throwing a ton more split fingers and sliders and isn't relying as much on the fastball, and somehow he's managed to put more than 2 mph on his fast ball compared to last year.  I don't believe in Pelfrey, but I expected this paragraph to be much worse.  He may actually end up a decent number 4-5 starter.

TREVOR MAY:  Probably the most important of these guys given his youth and potential, May's 4.15 ERA is decent but the good news is he's probably even better than that.  His BABIP is high and his LOB % is low.  He's putting up a respectable 6.9 K/9 and has reigned in his massive control problems from last year to average just 1.73 walks per nine.  His HR numbers are a bit fluky and he should regress there a bit, but as long as he can control his walks he should be solid.  We may have something here.  Get it?  Control his walks?  May have something?  That's high comedy right there.

TOMMY MILONE:  You generally don't expect much from fifth pitchers, but Milone has been more like a seventh or eighth guy so far.  Among Twins' pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched he ranks last in walk rate, homer rate, FIP, and xFIP, and his ERA is second worst at 4.76.  Perhaps the worst part is that Milone's BABIP is a minuscule .243 and his LOB is over 80%, so he's actually been putting up these horrid stats while getting lucky.  Yuck.  His control is completely out of hand with 4.37 BB/9, nearly double his career average and he's just giving up a monstrous amount of home runs.  Assuming he hasn't lost it he should be better than this but he's never going to be special.  A guy with a 87 mph fastball has to be pretty sharp with control and pitch mix, so it certainly is possible he's lost it.   Might even work better for the Twins if he has, so they can finally get Alex Meyer up here.


So, kind of a mixed bag.  Some guys should be better than they've been, some worse.  Probably the kind of thing you'd expect on a team that's right around .500.  And hey, maybe they'll stay there.  That'd be cool.

Twins Preview - Throwers

I really don't want to do this.  The Twins' pitching has been horrible for years, and even though it might be a little bit better it's still bad and it's also boring.  I guess just dive right in?  Yeah ok.

Opening day starter Phil Hughes should be the ace.  The Twins signed him prior to last season on the cheap, hoping he'd be a better pitcher getting out of Yankee Stadium and boy did that pay off.  He slashed his walks to an insane 0.69 per 9 innings which was the third lowest mark since 1920.  1920!  And he somehow managed to do that while increasing his strikeouts and giving up half as many homers per fly ball.  The homers number is maybe a little fluky, but moving from Yankee Stadium to Target Field can explain a lot of that too and it's balanced by a slightly higher than it should have been BABIP.

I mean Hughes was a really, really good pitcher last year.  Imagine if the Twins weren't one of the two worst fielding teams in the league last year (I can't remember the other one).  Hughes' FIP, which stands for Fielding Independent Pitching and attempts to measure a pitcher based solely on things he can control, was 2.65, almost a full run lower than his ERA (that means the Twins' fielding and Hughes' luck were both really, really bad).  That number was fifth among qualified starters in all of baseball.  He was fifth among starters in WAR.  He won 16 games on a terrible team.  He finished 7th in Cy Young voting.  I mean geez.  I didn't even realize just how good he was.

Honestly, and it scares me to say this a little, there's really no reason not to expect him to be the same pitcher this season. None of the improvements he made are unsustainable, even if a little regression should probably be expected because that's only natural after you set an all-time freaking record for K/Walk ratio, and there's actually some room for his luck to improve.  Most of the projection systems like his walk rate to about double (to a still really good number in the low 1s) and his ERA/WHIP/FIP to go up accordingly, but what if he can come closer to replicating that 0.69?  Man wow.  I know his extension is a bit of a risk since it's pretty much based on one season, but if he can come close to that pitcher again it'll be an absolute bargain.

After Hughes come a couple vets in new Ervin Santana and last year's new Ricky Nolasco.   The latter was an unmitigated disaster, as Nolasco cashed in $12 million to put up career worsts in nearly every category to the tune of a 5.38 ERA and 1.52 WHIP, all while failing to reach 200 innings pitched.  Looking into the advanced stats there's not much of a reason for optimism, though he probably won't be worse.  Even so, I took him with my first pick in a horrible players fantasy league, where you're rewarded for sucking.  Santana is a good signing for a contending team who needs someone in the middle of their rotation, but he doesn't make much sense for a a team like the Twins, especially if it helped push Alex Meyer and Trevor May back down to AAA.  I mean, he's been a pretty good pitcher in five of the last six seasons and he'll almost certainly help the team win more games this season, but he's pretty pointless unless he's still good when this team is contending.  Which will be soon, right?  Whatever.  The team probably thought they were signing Johan Santana anyway.

Starter four is Kyle Gibson who has pretty much lost his top prospect shine but had a pretty successful second season.  He improved from his (admittedly disastrous) rookie call-up two years ago by getting better in pretty much every metric you can find.  His WAR was 2.1 last season, which puts him in line with guys like Chris Tillman and Henderson Alvarez in the pretty darn good pitcher area.  I'd really like to see him up his K rate to somewhere closer to what he was putting up in the minors, but you can't really argue to much with a 2:1 ground ball to fly ball ratio.  He's a solid #4 or a so-so #3 with potential for more if he can whiff more dudes.  Keep an eye on that.

Winning the fifth starter competition over Meyer, May, and Mike Pelfrey (who is in the bullpen in a move I'm sure will work out) is your guy Tommy Milone, who came over in the Sam Fuld trade in what was a steal because Fuld is terrible.  Not that Milone is anything particularly special, but he's made himself into a serviceable major league pitcher despite a fastball that doesn't break 87 miles per hour unless there's a stiff breeze behind him.  But he mixes his pitches well and generally keeps the walks down, so he's not the worst option you could have as a fifth starter - though I promise you he'll have games where he's missing his spots where you'll believe he's pretty much the worst.

That's it for the starters, so now we're on to the bullpen which is going to be awful.  Glen Perkins will close of course and he's pretty awesome.  I have a tendency since he's a Minnesotan on a Minnesota team (and also I'm kind of a shithead sometimes) to assume he's being locally overrated but Perkins really is an elite closer.  Since he took over the closer role permanently in 2013 he ranks 9th in saves (on a terrible team), 13th in K/9, 58th in ERA, and 22nd in FIP, and 25th in WHIP among all pitchers with at least 120 innings pitched - that's pretty damn good!  And he has four more extremely affordable years on his contract (including this season).  I kind of love the guy, but they should probably be listening at every trade deadline.  Some team in win-now mode who is desperate for a closer might do something foolish, and he's a very valuable trade chip.  For now, I'm just going to love watching him, and he's young enough he could be the closer when the team is in contention again (they will!), but you know, think about it.

I'm not saying shop him, not at all.  I'm just saying if say, the Dodgers and their bottomless pit of money find themselves in a dogfight for the division they could come sniffing around.  What if Kenley Jansen's injury festers and he's out all year, and terrible Brandon League and unproven Chris Hatcher aren't getting the job done?  Between Perkins's skills, proven closer status, and super nice contract he'd be an attractive option.  Maybe you can pry Kyle Seager or Julio Urias away.  That would be pretty stupid on the Dodgers' end, but that doesn't mean it can't happen.  They have a super deep farm system and they clearly want to win and they want to win now.

Casey Fien will be the main setup guy after another pretty good year even if he did slip a bit.  It's a smidge disconcerting, however, that his K/9 dropped from 10.6 in 2013 to 7.3 in 2014.  His velocity was actually up so there's a decent chance this was just a weird blip, but there was also a huge jump in contact rate.  Keep an eye on this guy.

Brian Duensing was brought back for some reason and he'll be the sole non-Perkins lefty even though he's really quite terrible at pitching.  He has been decent at getting lefties out in his career, but his inability to strike anyone out drives me crazy and he should never, ever pitch to right-handed batters.  I really don't know why they tendered him other than continuity and familiarity which, as you know, the Twins value to an absurd degree.  I'd rather just roll the dice on Caleb Thielbar.  Granted in his two seasons he's shown reverse splits and if the Twins looked at that then bravo, but I guess I don't buy the front office is that sophisticated.  There aren't really any other in house options for a lefty bullpen guy which is sad in and of itself, but there's always plenty of crappy lefty arms out there you could probably snag for a minor league deal.  In the long run I suppose it doesn't matter, but giving $2.7 million to a terrible Duensing is kind of gross.

The rest of the bullpen is pretty much a mess.  Tim Stauffer is a failed starter who's dealt with a couple of really significant injuries and he's probably the best of the group.  Mike Pelfrey is absolutely terrible and should be released but instead the Twins are putting him in the pen which also pissed him off, so this is just a great situation all around.  J.R. Graham pretty much made the team because he was a Rule 5 pick and has to be on the big league roster or be sent back to his original team, and I literally have no idea who Blaine Boyer is.  This is not an impressive collection of arms, and to make it even worse the only guy in the entire bullpen who is under 30 is Graham.  It's a group of old, failed pitchers.  I prefer my bullpen made up of hard throwing young guys with at least one who isn't sure where the ball might be going all the time.  That's fun.  This is a garbage fire.

It's not like the team's going anywhere anyway.  You could roll with 25-year old Michael Tonkin, 25-year old Stephen Pryor, 26-year old Lester Oliveros, 22-year old Nick Burdi, and 22-year old Jake Reed and be just as well off, if not better, and it would be a lot more fun.  Or hell, throw Meyer and/or May into the pen to start like the way the Orioles have handled Kevin Gausman.  I don't know.  I'm not entirely certain this team has a coherent plan beyond "waiting for 2016 and hoping all the prospects are good" but whatever.

All in all, the starters could be decent this year, and will most likely be the best the Twins have had in a few years.  The bullpen, however, is going to blow a lot of games.

Welcome to the Bigs, Kyle Gibson

Well it's finally happened.  The day we've all been waiting for - Kyle Gibson is coming to Minneapolis with his debut scheduled for Saturday against the Royals and James Shields.  By all accounts Gibson's fastball is back to the lower mid-90s where it was before he had Tommy John surgery, and with his plus slider and change I think it's been clear it's time to get Gibson to Target Field.  He's put up an ERA of 3.11 this year (FIP 2.96) and has struck out 7.67 batters per nine while walking 2.72 - all numbers in line with where he was prior to his injury.  Since the Super 2 deadline has passed and at this point the Twins' will control Gibson until 2019 no matter when they call him up now, the time is right.

It will be interesting - and exciting - to watch a pitcher who can actually strike out somewhere in the neighborhood of a batter per inning, but there is a big part of me that worries the Twins will try to turn him into their preferred (for some reason) mold of a strike thrower pitch to contact type, although it does look like they're actually putting their money where their mouth is when they talk about being ok with walks in exchange for more power pitching.  Since 2008, only two Twins pitchers threw at least 150 innings in a season and finished with 2.5 or more walks per nine (Francisco Liriano in 2010 and Brian Duensing in 2011).  This season, the Twins look like they'll have at least one if not more with Mike Pelfrey at 2.7, Vance Worley at 2.8, Sam Deduno at 3.2, and Scott Diamond not too far off the pace at 2.0.  Gibson's walk numbers should fit right in, although he should strike out significantly more batters.

Since Gibson is coming up, it's worth checking in on a couple other "power pitcher" prospects the Twins acquired - Trevor May (in the Ben Revere trade) and Alex Meyer (in the Denard Span trade).  May was always the kind of guy you think about when somebody uses the phrase "he's a thrower not a pitcher" and as such could actually use a little tweak towards striking out fewer in order to walk fewer if you want him to end up a starter, as long as it didn't go too far.  He seems to have made some strides from earlier in his minor league career and although his Ks are down a bit from last year his walks are down as well, although at 4.2 BB/9 that's still awfully high but manageable if he can keep his strikeouts high (see:  Gio Gonzalez, Matt Moore, and Ryan Dempster).  With an ERA of 3.68 and  WHIP of 1.43 I don't see May advancing past AA this year, and that's fine.  There's nothing here that is concerning to me and I'd say he's doing what you'd expect.

Meyer, with May at New Britain, is working his way back from a shoulder injury, which frankly terrifies me because of the Twins' history with arm injuries.  Prior to that, however, he was having a similar year to May with high strikeout totals (10.8 per 9) balanced by high walk totals (4.0 per 9) resulting in a decent ERA (3.68) and WHIP (1.31), all of which looking pretty solid for a 23-year old in AA for the first time.  Like May, I don't see him advancing a level at any point this year, particularly with the injury, but he seems to be progressing fine through the system and will hopefully close strongly enough to start the year at AAA next year.  Neither Meyer or May has been spectacular this year, but they haven't done anything to discourage Twins' fans either.

One last pitcher worth mentioning is Jose "J.O." Berrios, the dude the Twins drafted at the end of teh first round in 2012 out of a Puerto Rican High School.  He put up outstanding numbers last year at both Rookie Clubs (combined ERA of 1.17 and K/BB of 49/4) earning himself a promotion to low-A Cedar Rapids this year where he made the league's all-star team.  In nine starts this year he has notched an ERA of 3.17 with 56 Ks vs. 15 walks, outstanding numbers for a 19 year old.  Although he's young, it wouldn't surprise me to see him at high A or even AA to start next season.

Now, potential is one thing and results another, just ask the Kansas City Royals, but the Twins' seem well positioned with these four prospects going forward.  Berrios is the only one who hasn't been on a Top 100 Prospect List, but with only one year under his belt if he finishes this year strong he'll have a shot.  Add in Kohl Stewart and suddenly a major weakness - starting pitching prospects - has become a strength.  The future is bright, but let's hope we're looking at a Tampa kid of future rather than a Kansas City one.

Stupid Royals.

Twins Youth Movement Update

Well, the Twins are who we thought they were.  They're clearly lacking in the pitching department, but the offense that "isn't a problem" has kind of been a problem too.

Rather than go over how much everyone sucks in the majors, let's look at some of the players that make up one of the deeper groups of prospects in major league baseball.

Aaron Hicks

No longer on prospect lists since he made the squad, but I still want to point out a couple of things here.  He continues to show flashes of power and is obviously good in the field.  Striking out 1/3 of the time is awful though.  And he's struck out in 7 of his last 20 ABs, so it's not like that ratio is decreasing.  What is interesting though is that Hicks was a natural right handed hitter that has turned switch-hitter; which isn't all that unusual, but he's hitting much better from the right side than the left.  (.257 vs .138)  He's also hitting better without the pressure of leading off (.258) and a has a nice amount of extra base hits (12).  It's still early and he dug himself a massive hole to get out of so I'd give him more time.  In fact, there's really no problem with giving him the rest of the year since we all know it's a lost cause.  If those splits don't improve though, I wouldn't mind if they considered making him a full time right handed hitter. 


Let's look at players in the minors that are on Jesse Siegel and Nick Shlain's top 200 list. 

#6 Byron Buxton, CF

We knew Buxton was a tools monster when he was drafted.  What we're coming to learn is that he may be in the majors much sooner than initially expected.  He showed power and speed in rookie ball in 2012, but hit just .216 in the Gulf Coast league after hitting .286 at Elizabethton.  In 2013, Buxton is a house on fire.  He's hitting 332/436/556 with 7 homers (23 xbhs) in 187 ABs.  He has a somewhat high K rate at 17.1%, but he has an incredible 15.4% walk rate.  He's also stolen 23 bases.  He's also an elite type defender in the OF with great speed and that mid-90s fastball arm.

Check out this recent quote from former scout Bernie Pleskoff:

Remember the name. Write it down. He's only in Low-A now. He'll fly through the system, even if the Twins want to avoid rushing him. He has a lethal combination of power and speed. He has to cut down on strikeouts to be even more effective, but the man can play. He already has seven home runs and 37 RBI to complement his .316 batting average at Cedar Rapids. He is my third highest ranked outfield prospect behind only Taveras and Yelich.

Keith Law has him #2 overall behind just Taveras. "80 speed on the 20-80 scouting scale, a very quick bat, a plus arm, the potential for plus-plus defense in center -- is accompanied by more present baseball skill than I realized last spring. He's already 19, so a late-season promotion to high-A wouldn't be too aggressive if he continues to rake."

So, doing the way premature math, if he goes to high A ball this year and does well, we could see him in AA next year at 20 years old.  Anything can happen from there.  Here he is mashing a walk off grand slam:

#7 Miguel Sano, 3B

Sano is in High-A Fort Myers after spending all of last season in Low-A.  Still, he's the youngest player in the Florida State league and is absolutely crushing it.  Did you know Doug Mientkiewicz is managing the Fort Myers team?  Me either until just right now.  He has this to say about Sano, "I don't get the final word, but I think he is ready for Double-A."  Miguel is hitting 343/437/657 with 13 homers (29 xbhs) in 181 ABs. He strikes out a tad more than 25% of the time, but he's showing huge power, so that might be acceptable.  He also walks at a decent rate of 11.7%. 

The biggest thing that could slow down Sano's rocketship to the majors is his defense.  He's currently at 3B still although many have projected him to 1B or a corner OF spot eventually.  He made 42 errors last season in 125 games at third, and so far this year he's made 11 errors in 49 games.   So, he's shown some improvement at least, but he's certainly not major league ready there.

Fast forward to about 1:18 to watch Sano go yahtzee off of something called Jacob Partridge here:

 

#50 Kyle Gibson, SP

Unless Kyle Gibson injures his shoulder killing and burying a hooker in Rochester, we'll be seing him pitch for the Twins in June.  Waiting until mid-June earns the Twins another year of control by going past the super two deadline.  You can't blame the Twins for this unless you thought they just needed one more arm back when they were a .500 team. 



Gibson is kind of a "flat-brimmer", but I think he pulls it off.

Gibson, 25, is just 4-5 so far this year, but he's sporting a 2.82 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in 60.2 innings.  He's also only allowed 2 homeruns and just 48 hits.  And now I'm reading that he got beat up a little in today's start so add 6 runs in 6 innings today to those stats.  

#51 Eddie Rosario, 2B

Rosario is with our guy Sano in High-A ball and continues to hit.  In 2012 he moved from CF to 2B and did well.  This year he's only played 2B and is playing great defensively with just 3 errors in 41 games.  Eddie is hitting 324/365/503 with 4 homers (19 xbhs) in 173 at bats.  This is a slight improvement across the board compared to last year.  His walk rate is low at 6.3%, but he also has a pretty low K rate of 14.6%. 

#57 Alex Meyer, SP

The 6'9" Meyer was acquired in the Denard Span and is playing AA ball in New Brighton.  At 23, he's just two years removed from pitching for Kentucky in college.  He's shown some big time strikeout potential with 63 Ks in 54.2 innings pitched.  He has a mid-90s fastball and a mid 80s slider.  He's still pretty wild, with 4.15 BB/9; that will need to improve for him to take the next step.  This is also the main reason he has a 1.40 WHIP.

#86 Jose Berrios, SP

Jose Berrios was taken 32nd overall last year and pitched 30 innings in rookie ball and struck out basically everyone (49).  He's had 6 starts now in Low-A Cedar Rapids (Team Buxton) and is doing well.  He's thrown 33.1 innings, struck out 40 and walked just 6.  He also hasn't allowed a homer.  He has a 2.70 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. 

He's not super big at 6', 190lbs, so you have to wonder if he can remain a starter throughout the minors.  He has a good fastball that can hit the mid-90s.

#94 Trevor May, SP

Trevor May, like Meyer is also 23, but he came to pro ball right out of high school.  This means we can look at progression and trends as he moves through the ranks.  The big thing that sticks out for May is the walk rate; and not in a good way.  Throughout his minor league it's been around 5 BB/9 and it's right there so far this season as well (4.71).  Despite the free passes, he has a 3.88 ERA and is 4-2 at New Brighton.  

#149 Max Kepler, OF

Poor Max is broken.  He has a left elbow injury that hasn't allowed him to start his 2013.  We like him because he's German, though.

#179 Travis Harrison, 3B

Travis was draft in 2011 (50th overall) and is in his second minor league season.  The 20 year old has 8 homers (23 xbh) in 171 at bats for Low-A Cedar Rapids and has a 275/351/503 line.  In 59 games at 3B in 2012 he commited 24 errors.  So far this year he has 10 errors in 45 games at the hot corner. 

#212 Josmil Pinto, C

Wait, there's more?  Apparently their list of 200 goes beyond 200, so here we are.  24 year old Pinto is in AA and is hitting 337/430/537.  In related news, Drew Butera once hit .337 in a wiffle ball league.  He's also thrown out 32% of would be base-stealer-guys. 

So, no playoffs for the Twins this year, but maybe look for these minor league clubs to make the post-season.  Slap it high?

Fare thee Well, Ben Revere

The Twins, taking my advice and not standing pat, continued making moves at the Winter Meetings to improve pitching in the organization, a desperate and drastic need, this time shipping out Ben Revere to the Phillies for a couple of young arms, and in a Shyamalanian twist the return they got for him looks more impressive than what they got for his predecessor (mentor?  elder?) Denard Span.

I was a little bit surprised they would trade Revere since it seeded like such a natural thing to slide him into Span's spot, but it makes a lot of sense.  Revere is an elite fielder and has elite speed, but his lack of power, noodle arm, and questionable plate discipline were all major questions.  With his high rate of contact and slap hitting plus the speed and no power Revere's upside was pretty much Juan Pierre, which is fine, but when you have a chance to move a possible next Pierre for two good arms under 25 you pretty much have to do it.  When you also factor in that Aaron Hicks is a year away and considered a better prospect, not to mention eight billion other OFers who make up practically the Twins' entire top prospects list, it becomes a no brainer.

In getting Vance Worley from the Phillies the Twins' pick up a major league ready arm who still has upside, which is exactly what I'd hoped they'd end up getting by trading Span (although I am happy with the return they ended up getting for Denard).  Worley has been in the rotation for the Phils for the past two seasons (most of the time) and has put up an ERA of 3.60 with a WHIP of 1.37 those two years while striking out 7.7 batters per 9 innings, a stat I can only assume that confused the Twins since they hate striking guys out.  Worley isn't really a pure strikeout guy since his fastball maxes out in the low 90s (more like exactly 90, really) and he doesn't have a killer strikeout pitch (and actually his contact rate of 86.2% is about what Carl Pavano's was in his days as a Twin so it doesn't really make sense he strikes out nearly a batter an inning.  There are plenty of pitchers, however, who continue to defy what their peripheral stats say they should morph into at some point so it wouldn't be unprecedented for him to keep this up.  In any case it's not something to worry about.  Worley is a 25 year old middle-of-the-rotation starter who is now either the Twins' best or second best starter, depending on your feelings about Scott Diamond.  At that age there's still room for him to get better, and Worley would have been an acceptable return for Revere (or Span), but the Twins' got more.  Plus, dude rocks the Rec Specs.  Holla.

NERD.  ALERT.

Perhaps because Worley is coming off elbow surgery (although should be just fine) the Twins were also able to finagle Trevor May in the deal, and this my friends is one intriguing prospect.  Both Baseball America and MinorLeagueBall.com listed May as the Phillies #1 prospect coming into last year on the strength of a mid-90s fastball and some ridiculous strikeout rates (11 K/9 or better in every stop after rookie ball).  He hit Double-A this year and things were a little rougher, posting an ERA of 4.87 and a WHIP of 1.45, although he still struck out more than a batter per inning (9.1 per 9).   By all accounts May was struggling with location, which manifested itself both in more walks (4.7 per  nine) and hits allowed (8.4 per nine).  Interestingly, the 4.7 BB/9 was worse than the previous year, but was still better than 2008, 2009, and 2010 - the increased hits allowed is the real concern.  Given the Twins' relative success in developing pitchers with control - although generally that manifests more as few walks rather than pinpoint control - I'm cautiously optimistic.  In any case, dude has #1 stuff by all accounts and despite the issues with his command last year he's still considered the Twins #5 overall prospect by MLB.com (Sano/Buxton/Meyer/Hicks/May).  Awesome.

Looking at the two trades, let's count the positives:

1.  Traded a good, not great, player, but at a position where a MLB ready back-up was available with a comparable skill set to upgrade a position of weakness

2.  Traded a low cost, quality but limited player for two badly needed assets with a replacement a year away.

3.  Acquired a low cost, team controlled middle-of-the rotation (2-3-4 depending on development) starter under the age of 25.

4.  Acquired 2 big-time prospects with the potential to develop #1 type stuff who aren't soft-tossing nancy boys and actually show an interest in making people swing and miss.

5.  Recognized the team's biggest weakness (pitching throughout the organization) and biggest area of depth (Young OFers) and moved one for the other.

6.  Recognized that occasionally it's good to have pitchers who throw the ball so hard that professional hitters can't catch up to hit and/or have so much movement they can't hit it. 

And the negatives:

1.  Denard Span was a true leadoff hitter with a lead-off hitter skill set who was very affordable.

2.  Ben Revere was really fun to watch and a good guy who was super duper affordable.

3.  Darin Mastroianni will probably have to play CF now and maybe even lead-off too which is kind of gross.

That's all I got.  There's really no way to hate these trades, especially the Revere one.  The team upgraded it's biggest weakness (organization wide) by using it's biggest strength without hurting the future, only the present where they weren't going to contend anyway, while acquiring the exact type of player they're shied away from which has proven to be the type that can make a major difference.  Freaking awesome.  Even that Mastroianni crack was a little overdone, because he's not that big a drop from Revere.  Using WAR (and I confess I don't know what this means other than it tries to measure total value and is impacted by plate appearances) Revere was a 3.4 in 553 PAs, Mastroianni was a 1.5 in just 186.  Game freaking on, brohan.  We goin' Sizzla.



As far as the Gophers won pretty easily in LA, beating USC 71-57 by doing what they've done all year:  tough perimeter defense (USC 1-9 on 3s, hitting the boards (out-rebounded the Trojans 36-29), turned over the opponent (17 TOs), and moved the ball (16 assists).  Since the game was on the Pac-10 Network which nobody in Minneapolis gets and I went to the bar with Bogart, Bear, Snake, Dawger, and Crazy Eddie instead of staying in and watching it on my computer I don't really have much else to say.  They're now poised to crusie to wins over NDSU and LaFayette and go into their December 31 game against Michigan State at 12-1 and likely ranked in or near the Top 10.  Michigan State at home is pretty much the perfect test for this team if you want to know where they stand.  If they're as good as I think they are they should handle Sparty at home.  If they don't, you know we're looking at fool's gold once again.  Pretty much the biggest game in Gopher history since the Final Four.  No biggie.