After the Purdue game I wrote "a win is a win." After this game, I'll say a road win in the Big Ten is a road win in the Big Ten. Despite one of the worst stretches of the season since the Arkansas game, the Gophers played a little better down the stretch, took advantage of some luck with Penn State's two best players fouling out, and got a conference road win. I'll take it. Mostly because I don't exactly have a choice. Anyway, here are 10 things I liked and didn't like about the Penn State game:
1. No matter how ugly the game was, the Gophers made the plays they needed to down the stretch. And yes, it was crazy ugly, but they did what they needed too. Malik Smith nailing four key free throws after not hitting a thing all day. DeAndre Mathieu with a huge steal and a huge tip in after struggling to score most of the first half. Austin Hollins, having maybe his worst game as a Gopher which is hard to envision after how he played against Michigan, coming up with an absolute monster steal right when the Gophers needed it. Maybe it doesn't get to that point if Frazier and Newbill don't foul out, and maybe none of those plays get made and Penn State coasts to a W. But guess what? They did, they didn't, and the Gophers did what they needed to win. It probably seems a bit Pollyanna-ish, which is generally against my character, but screw it, this is most likely a lost year between coaches anyway, so I'm gonna take what I can get.
2. Nobody, and I mean nobody, could stop Tim Frazier. Mathieu tried, both Hollinses tried, even Ahanmisi tried and it didn't matter, because Frazier could get into the lane whenever he wanted - and he wanted to a lot. And I don't know if it was by design as an overreaction to the end of the Purdue game, but it seemed like every time Frazier (or one of their crappy guards, even) got into the lane the Gopher help hung back, giving Frazier floater after floater after floater as the world's worst announcing team was happy to tell you over and over and over again. Luckily he fouled out right as we were getting down to it, and I don't think the Gophers win that game if he's still on the floor because, like I said, the Gophers had zero ability to stop his dribble penetration.
That's now three straight Big Ten games and dribble penetration has been a major, major issue in all three, and most of it is coming off ball screens. Early in the game, when the Gophers had control, the big men were hedging well and pushing the ball handler out until the screened man could recover and all was well. Then it all went to shit. The Gopher bigs started hedging too early or too late, and when Penn State started doing the double pick at the top of the key for Frazier the Gophers basically started committing four players to dealing with it, which meant there were skip passes available. I'm starting to think the Gophers just don't have the personnel to handle most Big Ten teams defensively, and that's no good for anyone.
3. Elliott can kind of control the paint. Another double double with four blocks, and it looked early like the Gopher game plan was going to force feed him the ball on the block and it was working. Even when Mo was in getting him the ball down low was working offensively. Then the Gophers decided to go completely away from that strategy and become a jump shooting team again. Do you know that Eliason only had two field goal attempts in the second half, and one of them came on a tip in? Not that he should be getting a ton of FGAs, but when he's demonstrated already that Penn State struggles to guard him I wouldn't mind seeing a touch or two, you know? And I'm not even sure Walker played in the second half. I can't believe I'm saying this, but against most teams Elliott needs to be an offensive focal point, just for variety's sake. Not against Michigan State.
3. I've always been an Oto defender, but he's just lost out there far too often. He has no idea where to go on defense, and that goes for both his positioning as well as things like hedging on screens and help defense. These things aren't new, but as his playing time becomes more and more high profile they just stand out more and more. Then he does things like, let's a pass go through his legs five hole style and then falls down trying to go after it which leads to a Penn State lay-up, or he let's himself get pushed under the basket on a Penn State free throw leading to a Nittany Lion rebound in a big, big, big spot. And it's not like it's just this game, you can point to at least 2-3 mistakes of his each game, easy. I think he's got some offensive ability as the jump shot seems to have come back as Pitino's given him more confidence to take open shots, and he brilliantly slipped a screen at one point and then nailed the 18 footer, but I really don't know if he can offset his piss poor defense with his mediocre offense. Then again, the only other choice at the 4 spot is a Joey King who completely panics any time he has the ball in a non scoring position, so really Pitino is pretty well screwed here.
4. Speaking of things that are horrible, Stephen Bardo is just the worst announcer ever. Repetitious, stating the obvious, creating a narrative and sticking with it no matter what, repetitious, infatuated with anyone banking in a shot, and he tends to repeat the same thing over and over again. Honestly, how many times did you hear that the Gophers were the best free throw shooting team in the Big Ten but were having a bad game? Or that it was a miracle Penn State was winning even though Newbill was barely playing due to foul trouble? How about him trying to sell the fact that bad free throw shooting is contagious. Seriously, once I noticed how horrible he was I kept waiting to see if he'd bring any insight at all to the broadcast, and he did - once. When Oto slipped that screen mentioned above, Bardo made sure to point it out and even explain it. But that was it. There was literally not one single other word he uttered that added to the broadcast. Someone should light his car on fire.
5. I'm all for consistency and installing a system, but if it's not working I'm not sure sticking with it makes sense. Naturally I'm talking about the press, which wasn't working and was creating easy buckets for Penn State who kept beating the Gophers down the floor and creating odd man rush situations and wasn't creating any turnovers or easy baskets for Minnesota. I suppose I shouldn't have expected it, given that he never backed off when Arkansas was shredding the Gophers. Normally I would say you need to adapt your system to your personnel and if it's not working it's not working, but in this case I think I'm ok with it. Pitino likely knows his ceiling is an NCAA bid this year and next and it's not likely either team will have much of any chance to go further, so it's all about building his brand for the class of 2015 and beyond. Let those kids see how Minnesota basketball is balls to the wall and fun fun fun for 40 minutes and hope it pays dividends. It's going to cause some ugly situations, like tonight, but it should pay off down the road. I hope. Please.
6. Penn State doubled on a lot of ball screens, and neither team took advantage. The point of doubling on a ball screen of course, is to create turnovers, and although the Gophers turned it over an uncomfortable 14 times I can't remember even one coming off of a Penn State double. If you're not turning it over on a double, that means you should be able to find an open man and unless the defensive rotations are very tight you should be able to get an open shot. That didn't happen either. And it wasn't because Penn State's rotations were so great, more that the Gophers were slow to swing the ball, or hesitant to drive the ball, or just couldn't make the right pass. Overall the Gopher offense was pretty rough tonight, and getting a win on a night when things just aren't working properly is probably a good sign. Or not. I don't know. This team is frustrating.
7. Malik Smith has proven himself to be a very valuable Gopher, but I'm not exactly sure he should be driving the paint. I love a lot of what he brings, and my buddy, "The Bear" has taken to calling him J.R. after J.R. Smith which is pretty much perfect, but when he puts the ball on the floor and drives it's an adventure. As with all true chuckers, which Malik most definitely is even though he has toned it down a bit from his FIU days, once he has the ball in the paint he's damn sure he's going to be able to score which leads to some, um, creative moves. And creative can work, just look at Mathieu and Dre Hollins when they get into the lane, but that's not exactly something that's in his skill set. When he puts his head down and heads to the hole it's kind of like Mav bringing the ball up against the press - just hope things don't go too terribly wrong and somebody gets lucky.
8. Dre Mathieu's gambling finally paid off. Dre has a habit of going after a steal, and I don't mean jumping passing lanes, I mean he tries to pick pockets all the freaking time. He loves both not moving his feet and swiping at the ball in front of him and trying to sneak around behind a ball handler and poke the ball out from behind. I can't actually remember any of this working for him this year, although with a steal rate in the top 70 of the country it must have happened, but I remember plenty of times he put himself completely out of proper defensive position. Tonight, however, he managed to poke the ball away from whoever it was that's Penn State's third ball handler is in one of the biggest spots of the game and, I guess, the season so far. I've said I like my point guard a little bit reckless, and that includes defense when you're as fast with hands as quick as Mathieu's, so I'm ok with all this, I'm just happy to see it pay off in a big, big way.
9. Speaking of the Honey Gopher, he just doesn't quit and I love it. Mathieu's best move is to drive way into the lane, probably too far truth be told, and then figure out what he's doing from there. At just 5-9 and against Big Ten big men, both in size and ability, this can lead to some really ugly shots and/or turnovers - and it has, no doubt. But in a situation where that wasn't working many less confident players would change their game and start playing differently, but Honey Gopher just kept pounding away and it paid off huge for Minnesota with him scoring the team's last four field goals including two absolute monsters. He's proven himself to be a huge late get for Pitino, and he's perfect for what Pitino wants to do on both sides of the court. I am a big, big fan.
10. Illinois is ranked?!??!?! How can this be? I'm watching the game and all of a sudden the flash up "Next, #23 Illinois takes on #4 Wisconsin" and I was like, wait, Illinois is ranked? The same team who lost to Georgia freaking Tech? The same team who almost lost to UIC, IPFW, and Dartmouth? The team whose best win was a lucky one over Missouri? Sorry folks, but Illinois is terrible. Completely terrible. Fact. And losing to Wisconsin by like, a hundred or something just proves I'm right. You watch, the Gophers will lose by less at Wisconsin than Illinois, and that's a guarantee I would have made before tonight, too.
Alright so I admit most of these things sound negative even though they won, but seriously that was a really ugly win. There is, and I'm not saying anything you don't know, a whole lot of major flaws with this team and right now it's really difficult to envision them upsetting any of the top tier Big Ten teams. Right now I can come up with 6 maybe 7 more games they really should win, but 3 of those are on the road so it's hard to think they can take all 3 down. They're going to need to win the games they should and steal at least 1, two depending on how many the drop where they shouldn't. It's going to be awfully tough to get an NCAA bid, but hey, what the hell, right? I'll just enjoy the ride. Until I end up throwing the remote at my TV. But if I didn't do it tonight, maybe I'm actually a level headed fan? Seems unlikely, but hey, on Boy Meets World Eric goes from a girl obsessed but mostly normal teenager to a completely ditzy buffoon of a college kid, so I guess anything is possible.
Showing posts with label Tim Frazier. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tim Frazier. Show all posts
Wednesday, January 8, 2014
Tuesday, January 7, 2014
Game Preview: Gophers vs. Penn State
The Gophers head into State College to take on Penn State, and as usual the Nittany Lions aren't necessarily very good, but can still be dangerous. Given that conference road games are usually a little dicey, I don't exactly have a great feeling about this one. They haven't really done much since they beat St. John's back in November, losing to Ole Miss, Pitt, Princeton, Michigan State, and Illinois since then, but I'm scared anyway. Penn State can look really good - like when they scored 47 points in the first half against the Spartans - and they can look really bad - such as when they scored 16 in the second half of that same game. Last time out Penn State scored just 55 points on less than 30% shooting against Illinois, so it'll be on the Gophers to sack up and play some defense and beat this team down.
Penn State can hurt you in a variety of ways what with five players who averaged double figures in scoring. It all starts with do everything point guard Tim Frazier (averaging 17 points, 7 assists, and 4 rebounds per game) although good news for the Gophers is he's been horrible in Big Ten play this year, shooting 6-23 while averaging just 8.5 points and 3 assists. Frazier's overall numbers are in line with his career levels, but he's just been held down by a couple of very good defenses. Given that the Gophers' are struggling defensively this year, Frazier is a great player who is due to bounce back in a big way, and home games have a tendency to help get slumps straightened out, I'm more than a little afraid of Frazier in this game.
Of course, Frazier isn't even their leading scorer. That would be 6-4 shooting guard D.J. Newbill, who is averaging 18 per game and has only been held under 15 once this season (last game against Illinois). Newbill is a pretty solid scorer who can get to the rim and has a good mid-range jumper. He can also knock down the three pointer (43% this year) although it's not his main skill. If Penn State has a guy who will kill the Gophers with threes it's probably Josh Johnson, a transfer from Pitt who hit 38% two seasons ago. He just became eligible three games ago and has gone 6-10 from behind the arc in those games while scoring 18+ points twice. Two bench guards, Graham Woodward (from Minnesota yay!) and Allen Roberts are three-point specialists who the Gophers have to hope don't get hot.
Penn State's front court is pretty much made up of three guys: The athletic stretch 4 who can block shots and hit threes in Brandon Taylor, the gritty, hustly, dirty work rebounder in Ross Travis, and the guy who comes off the bench in Donovan Jack. All three are just good enough to have a monster game and throw everything out of whack - Taylor had 18 points with 5 threes against Michigan State, Travis had 17 points and 13 rebounds against Ole Miss, and Jack scored 18 against both LaSalle and Marshall. Given the Gophers issues with dribble penetration and interior defense, expect at least one of these guys to go off. The Nittany Lions also have a seven footer in sophomore Jordan Dickerson, but he didn't see the court until the last three games, although playing 15 minutes last game against Illinois means he may become a rotation piece and the Gophers could see him.
Overall, I think the Gophers are definitely the better team. They have another point in their favor in that Penn State doesn't have a true center outside of Dickerson, so the Gophers will have opportunities to go with a smaller lineup, and let's face it the team is markedly better when neither Oto Osenieks nor Joey King are on the court. Not in the Gophers' favor is that this is a road game in the Big Ten, and Penn State can score points. The Gophers will just need to make enough jumpers to out score them.
Minnesota 77, Penn State 74
Penn State can hurt you in a variety of ways what with five players who averaged double figures in scoring. It all starts with do everything point guard Tim Frazier (averaging 17 points, 7 assists, and 4 rebounds per game) although good news for the Gophers is he's been horrible in Big Ten play this year, shooting 6-23 while averaging just 8.5 points and 3 assists. Frazier's overall numbers are in line with his career levels, but he's just been held down by a couple of very good defenses. Given that the Gophers' are struggling defensively this year, Frazier is a great player who is due to bounce back in a big way, and home games have a tendency to help get slumps straightened out, I'm more than a little afraid of Frazier in this game.
Of course, Frazier isn't even their leading scorer. That would be 6-4 shooting guard D.J. Newbill, who is averaging 18 per game and has only been held under 15 once this season (last game against Illinois). Newbill is a pretty solid scorer who can get to the rim and has a good mid-range jumper. He can also knock down the three pointer (43% this year) although it's not his main skill. If Penn State has a guy who will kill the Gophers with threes it's probably Josh Johnson, a transfer from Pitt who hit 38% two seasons ago. He just became eligible three games ago and has gone 6-10 from behind the arc in those games while scoring 18+ points twice. Two bench guards, Graham Woodward (from Minnesota yay!) and Allen Roberts are three-point specialists who the Gophers have to hope don't get hot.
Penn State's front court is pretty much made up of three guys: The athletic stretch 4 who can block shots and hit threes in Brandon Taylor, the gritty, hustly, dirty work rebounder in Ross Travis, and the guy who comes off the bench in Donovan Jack. All three are just good enough to have a monster game and throw everything out of whack - Taylor had 18 points with 5 threes against Michigan State, Travis had 17 points and 13 rebounds against Ole Miss, and Jack scored 18 against both LaSalle and Marshall. Given the Gophers issues with dribble penetration and interior defense, expect at least one of these guys to go off. The Nittany Lions also have a seven footer in sophomore Jordan Dickerson, but he didn't see the court until the last three games, although playing 15 minutes last game against Illinois means he may become a rotation piece and the Gophers could see him.
Overall, I think the Gophers are definitely the better team. They have another point in their favor in that Penn State doesn't have a true center outside of Dickerson, so the Gophers will have opportunities to go with a smaller lineup, and let's face it the team is markedly better when neither Oto Osenieks nor Joey King are on the court. Not in the Gophers' favor is that this is a road game in the Big Ten, and Penn State can score points. The Gophers will just need to make enough jumpers to out score them.
Minnesota 77, Penn State 74
Thursday, October 31, 2013
Big Ten Preview
Here we are on the eve of the Gophers kicking off their exhibition season. Given that, here is a bunch of words that will serve as my official Big Ten preview. I already talked about the Big Ten like a hundred years ago, and here's a post where I kind of talk about NCAA basketball this year in general, so this will be the capper on the trilogy of posts that form my NCAA preview this year. Man, I feel like I'm writing an epic or something. Everybody knows the best things come in trilogies. I dare you to find something other than Twilight that proves this wrong. Indiana Jones tried to make a fourth something and it bombed. Trilogies are the best, ergo, I am the best. Here are my thoughts, teams in order of my predicted finish.
1. MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS. It's almost unfair. The Spartans return Keith Appling, Gary Harris, Denzel Valentine, Branden Dawson, and Adreian Payne this year. That's at least three NBA players. For me, Michigan State is the top team in the Big Ten by a pretty wide margin, and I think they're the second best team in the entire country (behind Louisville).
If you check out kenpom.com, you'll see the Spartans finished as the ninth best team last year according to his metrics. Every team in front of them is experiencing some pretty major roster turnover from last season (with the exception of Louisville), while Sparty loses only Derrick Nix and conveniently still have Payne to just stick right in there. Plus what was Nix's main contributions? Rebounding on both ends of the floor and making high percentage shots. Well Michigan State as a team is great at rebounding and makes a high percentage of their shots, so it's not like they're losing somebody who single-handedly changed their team like DeShaun Thomas. Plus with Izzo as their coach you know they'll just get better as the year goes on. It's just not fair. Of course, Keith Appling is the kind of player who can burn down a season pretty much by himself so I guess we have that going for us. Which is nice.
2. OHIO STATE BUCKEYES. Even though the Buckeyes only lose one player from last season (unless you count Evan Ravenel as a person, which I don't) but at the same time you could argue that they lost more than any other team in the conference because DeShaun Thomas. Not only did he take a ton of his team's shots (30th most of any player in D-1 by percentage) but he was very efficient as well, leading the team in offensive rating by a pretty good amount. Now he's gone, possibly in the NBA but I couldn't be bothered to look it up, but in any case he gone.
So now Ohio State is made up of a ton of formerly highly rated recruits who have been deferring to Thomas, two new freshman (both top 65 recruits by ESPN of course, this is Ohio State after all not some shit box program), and the Wes Ellsbury Eckstein Welker Punto of college basketball Aaron Craft. Seriously, who is going to lead the team in scoring this year? Any of Craft, Lenzelle Smith, Sam Thompson, LaQuinton Ross, Shannon Scott, Amir Williams, or Kameron Williams could end up leading the team and it wouldn't be a surprise. Actually, watch Kameron Williams because he's basically the new DeShaun Thomas but shorter and skinnier. He's definitely never seen a shot he didn't like. Plus look at this guy, tell me he doesn't look like a chucker:
Doesn't he kind of look like Pauly D.? Come on, you know you see it. And Pauly D. would definitely be a chucker if he was a basketball player. I'm also going to assume J-Woww is still hot even though I haven't watched that show in like 3 years.
I can't wait to watch this guy. I love chuckers when they aren't on my team.
3. WISCONSIN BADGERS. I've written too much about Wisconsin already, which you can see if you click on the two links above, but I can't help but be really high on them this year as much as it pains me. I think their starting guards are absolutely perfect for Bo's system this year. His boring, boring system of boring opponents to death by being so boring. Then add in Sam Dekker, who brings a level of athleticism and ability the Badgers haven't had since, geez, maybe Devin Harris, and there's a whole new wrinkle to the offense. The biggest knock on the Badger offense, besides being so boring, is they get over reliant on the 3-point shot and don't penetrate the lane at times. Well Dekker can solve all that by being unguardable.
Yes, there are a million questions about the front court, but if Bo Ryan is good at anything, besides being boring and looking ugly and acting like a baby, it's getting seldom used, little regarded big white guys to suddenly be productive and efficient when needed. Plus Nigel Hayes may be in position to contribute as a freshman, and he led the team in rebounding in their exhibition against UW-Platteville. Yes, I hated writing every word of this.
4. MICHIGAN WOLVERINES. People seem to think Michigan is going to be really, really good this year and I suppose that might end up being true, but I think they're more of a good not great team. I mean, it's a pretty big deal to lose your two starting guards to the NBA, especially when they pretty much dominated the ball all the time. Going from Tre Burke to one of Spike Albrecht, Caris LeVert, or a freshman is going to be a bit startling, even if Derrick Walton is one of the top PGs incoming this year.
I know there's some good talent back but is this really a top 10 team? Nik Stauskas is just a shooter (a very good one) and Mitch McGary is a rebounder/dunker guy (a very good one). Where's the playmaker who makes this an elite team gonna come from? If Glenn Robinson makes that leap or freshman SF Zak Irvin is a game changer right away (and the PG situation works out) they could certainly end up meeting these preseason expectations, but that's too many unknown variables for me to be really confident in Michigan this year. So yeah. I'm also guessing that off all this predictions this is the one that's going to make me look really stupid at the end of the year. Possibly Penn State too. You'll see why.
5. IOWA HAWKEYES. The trendy pick for not just Big Ten sleeper but national sleeper, and why not seeing as how they basically have the same team from last year and they were very, very good the second half of the season making it all the way to the NIT Championship game. Last year Iowa was pretty good at just about everything except shooting where they were just dreadful, ranking 308th in the NCAA in 3-point percentage. That's pretty much going to decide just how good they can be, and with the same team back things don't look great, but they do everything else well enough that I think 5th is just about right.
One major problem from last year, and the reason they didn't make the NCAA tournament most likely, is their non-conference schedule was shit. It left their RPI somewhere in the 70s and it's awfully damn hard to get an at-large bid with an RPI up there (and a SoS somewhere in the mid-100s). Well, they went ahead and made the exact same screw-up. They have their typical game against Iowa State, play Notre Dame in the B10/ACC Challenge, and they play in the Battle 4 Atlantis where they could pick up some good games, so none of that sounds too bad. Their mistake lies in scheduling way too many schools that could be in the 300s for RPI and zero other teams that have even an outside shot to crack the top 100. And yes, if this sounds familiar it should because the Gophers did the same damn exact thing and I don't want to talk about it.
One semi-helpful thing with looking at the Hawkeyes is they've already played six exhibition games this season thanks to their August trip to Europe (they went 5-1 with a loss to the great Hyeres-Toulon Basket team. I found box scores for five of the games, and they shot 32% for the trip from three, which is a slight uptick from last year but at the same time they were playing exhibition games against Europeans who were probably plucked from the local YMCA if they have those in Europe. Also this Peter Jok guy? The one newcomer this year for Iowa? Holy cow what a gunner. He took 31 threes in the five games to lead the team, and was either hot (4-8 and 4-7) or really not (1-4, 1-5, 1-7). Pretty ballsy for a freshman, but he and Josh Oglesby might be the keys for Iowa as the guys most likely to provide the outside shooting they need. Either way one thing is for certain: Iowa smells like shit.
6. INDIANA HOOSIERS. Indiana, like Michigan, is another team I feel is getting a little bit too much national love based on how gutted they are to last season. They do bring in a hell of a recruiting class (four ESPN Top 100 guys) and they actually complement what they bring back, but I guess, again like Michigan, I'm just hesitant to throw my opinion behind a team with so many questions. Besides the four new guys you've got Yogi Ferrell who can't shoot, Will Sheehey who is kind of a spaz, and a bunch of guys who played very limited minutes last year.
Obviously Tom Crean's hair is recruiting it's ass off so it's probably stupid to dismiss this team with that many ESPN Top 100 guys still hanging around. Along with those new 4 and Ferrell there are two others from last year, so yeah this team is talented I guess. The good news though is they seem to be losing out on recruits all of a sudden. Top 100 guy James Blackmon Jr. had committed but backed out, and they've lost out at the last minute on Top 100s Theo Pinson, Goodluck Okonoboh, and Devin Robinson. Hopefully this means that recruits are figuring out what a huge piece of crap Tom Crean is. Because it's true. [After I wrote this part Blackmon re-committed to Indiana. I stand by my theory that Tom Crean sucks as a human.]
7. PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS. This is the team,
outside the Gophers, I'm having the hardest time ranking, and I think,
like the Gophers, it's because my emotions keep getting in the way.
See, I love guys like Tim Frazier and want them to do well. When Talor
Battle was at Penn State (and no, this is not some kind of Penn State
phenomenon) I desperately wanted him to do well and carry his team to
the NCAA tournament - which he did only to be beaten by some Temple
jerks. Obviously putting them 7th, and I think this is pretty much
their ceiling, means I don't think Frazier is going to make it, but if
he's 100% back and everything gels perfectly they could do it.
It would have helped if that jerk Jermaine Marshall wouldn't have transferred and deserted Frazier, but with him (Frazier) out all of last season with that knee injury at least that meant everybody else who is back got to gain some valuable experience scoring the ball, mostly D.J. Newbill, but overall there just isn't enough here outside of Frazier to really have faith in this team. Ross Travis is a heck of a rebounder and the Gophers could definitely use him, but hopefully they'll end up with a different Travis instead (Reid Travis announces Nov 8 with a final three of Duke, Stanford, and Minnesota - have faith).
8. MINNESOTA GOPHERS. I'm honestly a little concerned I have them too high - yes, too high - but what can I say optimism is flowing through my veins right now (and it's a really weird feeling, like that one time I woke up not hungover). But of course that optimism is tinged by reality and pessimism that I cannot escape, and I just don't think there's enough in the front court here to really be even a middle-tier Big Ten team this year.
You've got three guys who are more perimeter guys, a high jumper who is probably way too small to pull it off, and a guy who yes, lost a bunch of weight, but has dealt with knee issues so who knows what you're going to get? Eliason is the only known commodity, and I think he's just fine as a Big Ten center, but if he's in foul trouble who knows what you're going to get? Not to mention you still need to find a starting 4 man out of this group of unknowns, and I don't have a particularly good feeling about any of them. The guard play should be top notch and that alone will keep them in a lot of games, and you just know there's a night here where all the 3-pointers are dropping and they shoot like 14-24 and knock off one of the top teams, but that's not going to be reliable enough to count on night after night. I hope I'm wrong, but I see the upside here as a bubble team. Here's hoping they make it.
9. ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI. Hey you know what's cool about Illinois? Besides nothing? They're another team who has already played an exhibition game this season, and since there are tons of questions about how the team's going to shake out maybe we can learn a little something from that box score. Such as how Tracy Abrams, the point guard, led the team in shot attempts. Oh what an Illinois thing. Seriously, Chester Frazier must be rolling in his grave looking at the line of shoot first point guards who have populated that back court since he graduated. Well the line is just two, but they've both been extra annoying so it seems longer.
This was going to be a rough year in Illinois either way, but losing out on Ahmad Starks (transfer from Oregon State, going for the ole "closer to home" waiver - denied) is going to hurt since he averaged 10 pts per game last season. It's always tough to figure out how a team will shake out with so many newcomers (I count 2 transfers (+Starks) and five freshmen) but I'm pretty sure most of these guys suck. Could they make some noise later in the season after they've had time to play together for a while? No.
10. NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS. This is a team that for some reason, probably because I like the dudes at Sippin' on Purple, I kept wanting to rank higher but then I slapped myself in the face and looked closer and was like gross. After being right on the verge of that elusive first ever NCAA bid for a couple years, they took a step back last season (a Drew Crawford injury will do that) and finished 13-19 (4-14 in conference) and finally fired their coach. Oh, what's that? You didn't know Northwestern has a new basketball coach well you should since he's a former Dukie which means it's all anybody can talk about.
But I don't want to talk about that even though it's kind of interesting that we should see Northwestern playing in a whole new way. I'm more interested in wondering how good their back court might be if Crawford is fully healed and all good again and stuff. The one good thing about his injury last year was it allowed Reggie Hearn to step forward and thrive, and he actually put up nearly identical numbers to what Crawford did before he got hurt. Should be a pretty dynamic back court, plus they have that little lesbian still running around running point.
11. PURDUE BOILERMAKERS. Well, Purdue has A.J. Hammons, a guy named Basil Smotherman, and a guy (Travis Carroll) whose nickname is "Tacos" because of an auto-correct mistake on a scoreboard. That's pretty much all the positives. Maybe this freshman Kendall Stephens could end up being pretty good. And I suppose they do have two guys with the last name Johnson which means they could nickname themselves Johnson & Johnson, which is catchy. Not Tacos catchy, but still catchy.
I'm not really sure what's going on here with Purdue lately. If this season goes the way I'm expecting that'll make a second straight sub-par season and a second straight year missing the NCAA Tournament after making it six straight years (2 Sweet Sixteens). Looking at this year's freshman class and who is on the hook for 2014 there isn't really much of an impact here. In fact, Painter hasn't brought in anything resembling an impact class since that crazy Moore/Johnson/Hummel/Martin quartet, and that was back in 2007. Does this mean we're witnessing the slow death of Purdue basketball? Yes.
12. NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS. I wrote about 11 teams, took my kids trick-r-treating, and boy am I tired. Yet here is Nebraska staring me right in my stupid face. I think we all believe that at some point Tim Miles will get Nebraska turned around and at least making them competitive. This is not that year.
After finishing 5-13 last season they return just two starters and I wouldn't exactly say the "Nebraska recruiting hot bed thing" hasn't started yet so ouch. Top returner is mad bomber Ray Gallegos (no relation to Mike Gallego) who led the Big Ten with 271 three-point attempts, but made just 30.6% of them. Remember how Gallegos went 6-9 from three against the Gophers at the Barn? Yeah, that didn't happen all that often. This Shavon Shields guy might be ok and they have a bunch of transfers coming in, most notably Terran Petteway from Texas Tech (that's the opposite of exciting), Florida transfer Walter Pitchford (whose name reminds me of Kevin Pickford who was that cool guy who was gonna throw the party in Dazed and Confused so I already like him) and guard Tai Webster out of New Zealand. According to some Webster would have been a top 50 type recruit if he came up through the AAU system and is an absolute steal for Miles. So maybe Nebraska will provide some excitement this year. Beyond just when we kicked their football asses!!!! SKI U MAH!!!!!
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| Big fan of this behavior |
1. MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS. It's almost unfair. The Spartans return Keith Appling, Gary Harris, Denzel Valentine, Branden Dawson, and Adreian Payne this year. That's at least three NBA players. For me, Michigan State is the top team in the Big Ten by a pretty wide margin, and I think they're the second best team in the entire country (behind Louisville).
If you check out kenpom.com, you'll see the Spartans finished as the ninth best team last year according to his metrics. Every team in front of them is experiencing some pretty major roster turnover from last season (with the exception of Louisville), while Sparty loses only Derrick Nix and conveniently still have Payne to just stick right in there. Plus what was Nix's main contributions? Rebounding on both ends of the floor and making high percentage shots. Well Michigan State as a team is great at rebounding and makes a high percentage of their shots, so it's not like they're losing somebody who single-handedly changed their team like DeShaun Thomas. Plus with Izzo as their coach you know they'll just get better as the year goes on. It's just not fair. Of course, Keith Appling is the kind of player who can burn down a season pretty much by himself so I guess we have that going for us. Which is nice.
2. OHIO STATE BUCKEYES. Even though the Buckeyes only lose one player from last season (unless you count Evan Ravenel as a person, which I don't) but at the same time you could argue that they lost more than any other team in the conference because DeShaun Thomas. Not only did he take a ton of his team's shots (30th most of any player in D-1 by percentage) but he was very efficient as well, leading the team in offensive rating by a pretty good amount. Now he's gone, possibly in the NBA but I couldn't be bothered to look it up, but in any case he gone.
So now Ohio State is made up of a ton of formerly highly rated recruits who have been deferring to Thomas, two new freshman (both top 65 recruits by ESPN of course, this is Ohio State after all not some shit box program), and the Wes Ellsbury Eckstein Welker Punto of college basketball Aaron Craft. Seriously, who is going to lead the team in scoring this year? Any of Craft, Lenzelle Smith, Sam Thompson, LaQuinton Ross, Shannon Scott, Amir Williams, or Kameron Williams could end up leading the team and it wouldn't be a surprise. Actually, watch Kameron Williams because he's basically the new DeShaun Thomas but shorter and skinnier. He's definitely never seen a shot he didn't like. Plus look at this guy, tell me he doesn't look like a chucker:
Doesn't he kind of look like Pauly D.? Come on, you know you see it. And Pauly D. would definitely be a chucker if he was a basketball player. I'm also going to assume J-Woww is still hot even though I haven't watched that show in like 3 years.
I can't wait to watch this guy. I love chuckers when they aren't on my team.
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| That's a beer bong coming in from the right side there. |
Yes, there are a million questions about the front court, but if Bo Ryan is good at anything, besides being boring and looking ugly and acting like a baby, it's getting seldom used, little regarded big white guys to suddenly be productive and efficient when needed. Plus Nigel Hayes may be in position to contribute as a freshman, and he led the team in rebounding in their exhibition against UW-Platteville. Yes, I hated writing every word of this.
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| This seems like a lot of teeth. |
I know there's some good talent back but is this really a top 10 team? Nik Stauskas is just a shooter (a very good one) and Mitch McGary is a rebounder/dunker guy (a very good one). Where's the playmaker who makes this an elite team gonna come from? If Glenn Robinson makes that leap or freshman SF Zak Irvin is a game changer right away (and the PG situation works out) they could certainly end up meeting these preseason expectations, but that's too many unknown variables for me to be really confident in Michigan this year. So yeah. I'm also guessing that off all this predictions this is the one that's going to make me look really stupid at the end of the year. Possibly Penn State too. You'll see why.
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| I still hate Iowa, but this is a good argument it it's favor |
One major problem from last year, and the reason they didn't make the NCAA tournament most likely, is their non-conference schedule was shit. It left their RPI somewhere in the 70s and it's awfully damn hard to get an at-large bid with an RPI up there (and a SoS somewhere in the mid-100s). Well, they went ahead and made the exact same screw-up. They have their typical game against Iowa State, play Notre Dame in the B10/ACC Challenge, and they play in the Battle 4 Atlantis where they could pick up some good games, so none of that sounds too bad. Their mistake lies in scheduling way too many schools that could be in the 300s for RPI and zero other teams that have even an outside shot to crack the top 100. And yes, if this sounds familiar it should because the Gophers did the same damn exact thing and I don't want to talk about it.
One semi-helpful thing with looking at the Hawkeyes is they've already played six exhibition games this season thanks to their August trip to Europe (they went 5-1 with a loss to the great Hyeres-Toulon Basket team. I found box scores for five of the games, and they shot 32% for the trip from three, which is a slight uptick from last year but at the same time they were playing exhibition games against Europeans who were probably plucked from the local YMCA if they have those in Europe. Also this Peter Jok guy? The one newcomer this year for Iowa? Holy cow what a gunner. He took 31 threes in the five games to lead the team, and was either hot (4-8 and 4-7) or really not (1-4, 1-5, 1-7). Pretty ballsy for a freshman, but he and Josh Oglesby might be the keys for Iowa as the guys most likely to provide the outside shooting they need. Either way one thing is for certain: Iowa smells like shit.
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| Indiana was surprisingly lacking in pictures. |
Obviously Tom Crean's hair is recruiting it's ass off so it's probably stupid to dismiss this team with that many ESPN Top 100 guys still hanging around. Along with those new 4 and Ferrell there are two others from last year, so yeah this team is talented I guess. The good news though is they seem to be losing out on recruits all of a sudden. Top 100 guy James Blackmon Jr. had committed but backed out, and they've lost out at the last minute on Top 100s Theo Pinson, Goodluck Okonoboh, and Devin Robinson. Hopefully this means that recruits are figuring out what a huge piece of crap Tom Crean is. Because it's true. [After I wrote this part Blackmon re-committed to Indiana. I stand by my theory that Tom Crean sucks as a human.]
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| I like her she seems smart. |
It would have helped if that jerk Jermaine Marshall wouldn't have transferred and deserted Frazier, but with him (Frazier) out all of last season with that knee injury at least that meant everybody else who is back got to gain some valuable experience scoring the ball, mostly D.J. Newbill, but overall there just isn't enough here outside of Frazier to really have faith in this team. Ross Travis is a heck of a rebounder and the Gophers could definitely use him, but hopefully they'll end up with a different Travis instead (Reid Travis announces Nov 8 with a final three of Duke, Stanford, and Minnesota - have faith).
8. MINNESOTA GOPHERS. I'm honestly a little concerned I have them too high - yes, too high - but what can I say optimism is flowing through my veins right now (and it's a really weird feeling, like that one time I woke up not hungover). But of course that optimism is tinged by reality and pessimism that I cannot escape, and I just don't think there's enough in the front court here to really be even a middle-tier Big Ten team this year.
You've got three guys who are more perimeter guys, a high jumper who is probably way too small to pull it off, and a guy who yes, lost a bunch of weight, but has dealt with knee issues so who knows what you're going to get? Eliason is the only known commodity, and I think he's just fine as a Big Ten center, but if he's in foul trouble who knows what you're going to get? Not to mention you still need to find a starting 4 man out of this group of unknowns, and I don't have a particularly good feeling about any of them. The guard play should be top notch and that alone will keep them in a lot of games, and you just know there's a night here where all the 3-pointers are dropping and they shoot like 14-24 and knock off one of the top teams, but that's not going to be reliable enough to count on night after night. I hope I'm wrong, but I see the upside here as a bubble team. Here's hoping they make it.
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| The pillow says Illinois. Nice microwave. |
This was going to be a rough year in Illinois either way, but losing out on Ahmad Starks (transfer from Oregon State, going for the ole "closer to home" waiver - denied) is going to hurt since he averaged 10 pts per game last season. It's always tough to figure out how a team will shake out with so many newcomers (I count 2 transfers (+Starks) and five freshmen) but I'm pretty sure most of these guys suck. Could they make some noise later in the season after they've had time to play together for a while? No.
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| The website said these were Northwestern girls. Good enough for me. |
But I don't want to talk about that even though it's kind of interesting that we should see Northwestern playing in a whole new way. I'm more interested in wondering how good their back court might be if Crawford is fully healed and all good again and stuff. The one good thing about his injury last year was it allowed Reggie Hearn to step forward and thrive, and he actually put up nearly identical numbers to what Crawford did before he got hurt. Should be a pretty dynamic back court, plus they have that little lesbian still running around running point.
11. PURDUE BOILERMAKERS. Well, Purdue has A.J. Hammons, a guy named Basil Smotherman, and a guy (Travis Carroll) whose nickname is "Tacos" because of an auto-correct mistake on a scoreboard. That's pretty much all the positives. Maybe this freshman Kendall Stephens could end up being pretty good. And I suppose they do have two guys with the last name Johnson which means they could nickname themselves Johnson & Johnson, which is catchy. Not Tacos catchy, but still catchy.
I'm not really sure what's going on here with Purdue lately. If this season goes the way I'm expecting that'll make a second straight sub-par season and a second straight year missing the NCAA Tournament after making it six straight years (2 Sweet Sixteens). Looking at this year's freshman class and who is on the hook for 2014 there isn't really much of an impact here. In fact, Painter hasn't brought in anything resembling an impact class since that crazy Moore/Johnson/Hummel/Martin quartet, and that was back in 2007. Does this mean we're witnessing the slow death of Purdue basketball? Yes.
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| Bottom. |
After finishing 5-13 last season they return just two starters and I wouldn't exactly say the "Nebraska recruiting hot bed thing" hasn't started yet so ouch. Top returner is mad bomber Ray Gallegos (no relation to Mike Gallego) who led the Big Ten with 271 three-point attempts, but made just 30.6% of them. Remember how Gallegos went 6-9 from three against the Gophers at the Barn? Yeah, that didn't happen all that often. This Shavon Shields guy might be ok and they have a bunch of transfers coming in, most notably Terran Petteway from Texas Tech (that's the opposite of exciting), Florida transfer Walter Pitchford (whose name reminds me of Kevin Pickford who was that cool guy who was gonna throw the party in Dazed and Confused so I already like him) and guard Tai Webster out of New Zealand. According to some Webster would have been a top 50 type recruit if he came up through the AAU system and is an absolute steal for Miles. So maybe Nebraska will provide some excitement this year. Beyond just when we kicked their football asses!!!! SKI U MAH!!!!!
Monday, October 31, 2011
Big Ten Preview: #12 Penn State
Well that was a fun little run last year, wasn't it? To see a guy like Talor Battle, a little do-it all guy whose talent so far exceeded everyone else on the team that he wasn't asked to do everything, take his team on a happy fun late season run, including an appearance in the Big Ten Tournament Championship, and grab their first NCAA bid since the annoying Crispins were running around State College. Of course, the dream died when Juan Fernandez hit that off-balance shot in the NCAA First Second Round, and it's been dying every since.
First off, and biggest, everybody graduated. Not just the great Battle, but three other starters as well (David Jackson, Andrew Jones, and Jeff Brooks), and the heir apparent to Battle, Taran Buie, transferred to Hofstra after being suspended mid-season. All that means Penn State is losing 87% of its scoring, 74% of its rebounding, and 53% of its assists. On top of that, despite leading the team to its first NCAA Bid in a thousand years, Coach Ed DeChellis bounced to Navy (Navy!) and with him talented Dayton transfer Juwan Staten changed his mind about joining the squad and will suit up for West Virginia instead. So the Nittany Lions roll into this season with a new coach, a whole new team, and not a lot of reasons for optimism.
The one bright spot, and the reason the still get 47% of their assists back from last year, is point guard Tim Frazier. He's an excellent point guard who excels at getting into the lane, setting teammates up (4th in the B10 in assists last year), and getting to the line. He's not much of a scorer (6.3 ppg last year) and even less of a shooter (just 56 3pt attempts in two years), and although his skills make him valuable on a team like this, where he is clearly the best player, he's not a great fit. The positive is that he should be able to help make his teammates better by finding them open looks, the question is if there's anybody here who is capable of even making those.
Really, there's nothing to get excited about here. The only other players back who averaged more than 10 minutes per game last season are forwards Billy Oliver and Cammeron Woodyard, which at least means Penn State will have some size with some experience, but the two combined to shoot just 28% from the field last season which means somebody is going to have to make an enormous talent leap to make the Nittany Lions even competitive, whether it's one of those two, Jermaine Marshall (the only other returnee who averaged even five minutes per game), or one of a plethora of newcomers who I don't feel like writing about because I'd just be guessing.
It's going to be a rough year for Penn State, and the chance of a winless conference season is a very real possibility, but at least Tim Frazier is fun to watch. Hopefully he can elevate his game this year and make Penn State at least watchable if it's the only game on TV.
DWG's OVER/UNDER on conference wins: 1.5
First off, and biggest, everybody graduated. Not just the great Battle, but three other starters as well (David Jackson, Andrew Jones, and Jeff Brooks), and the heir apparent to Battle, Taran Buie, transferred to Hofstra after being suspended mid-season. All that means Penn State is losing 87% of its scoring, 74% of its rebounding, and 53% of its assists. On top of that, despite leading the team to its first NCAA Bid in a thousand years, Coach Ed DeChellis bounced to Navy (Navy!) and with him talented Dayton transfer Juwan Staten changed his mind about joining the squad and will suit up for West Virginia instead. So the Nittany Lions roll into this season with a new coach, a whole new team, and not a lot of reasons for optimism.
The one bright spot, and the reason the still get 47% of their assists back from last year, is point guard Tim Frazier. He's an excellent point guard who excels at getting into the lane, setting teammates up (4th in the B10 in assists last year), and getting to the line. He's not much of a scorer (6.3 ppg last year) and even less of a shooter (just 56 3pt attempts in two years), and although his skills make him valuable on a team like this, where he is clearly the best player, he's not a great fit. The positive is that he should be able to help make his teammates better by finding them open looks, the question is if there's anybody here who is capable of even making those.
Really, there's nothing to get excited about here. The only other players back who averaged more than 10 minutes per game last season are forwards Billy Oliver and Cammeron Woodyard, which at least means Penn State will have some size with some experience, but the two combined to shoot just 28% from the field last season which means somebody is going to have to make an enormous talent leap to make the Nittany Lions even competitive, whether it's one of those two, Jermaine Marshall (the only other returnee who averaged even five minutes per game), or one of a plethora of newcomers who I don't feel like writing about because I'd just be guessing.
It's going to be a rough year for Penn State, and the chance of a winless conference season is a very real possibility, but at least Tim Frazier is fun to watch. Hopefully he can elevate his game this year and make Penn State at least watchable if it's the only game on TV.
DWG's OVER/UNDER on conference wins: 1.5
Thursday, February 17, 2011
Live Blog: Minnesota Gophers vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
You know what's great? Technology. You know why? Because a working dad like me can come home from work, eat dinner with his family (homemade pizza), play with the kids, put the kids to bed, watch the best show on TV (Parks & Rec), spend quality time with his wife (wink wink) and still watch a game that started at 6pm thanks to the miracle of DVR. And I already have a buzz on. Sweet.
Keep in mind throughout this game that I made a semi-large wager on Talor Battle over 26.5 points+rebounds+assists, so I'll be rooting for him to do well at the same time I'm dying for a Gopher win. Here's what I know: Bogart told me to look for Mbakwe at 6:11 left in the first half, and Dawger called me at 8:24, which would be not long after the game ends. I've been trying to figure out why he'd call me, but I'm guessing at this point we're going down to the wire. Let's see.
19:24 - Iverson fouled on the games first possession, makes one. Sounds about right. It's a bit disconcerting that with the big lineup in the ball didn't get anywhere near the point until there were 4 seconds left on the shot clock, but whatever.
18:36 - Gophers in a zone and are really shading Battle. Whichever area Battle is the defender is almost playing man on Battle, even without the ball. Interesting strategy which leads to Battle getting nothing but backboard on a pro range three. What a stupid bet.
17:27 - Jesus christ, Ralph. Although I don't know if that's really his fault, not really sure why Mbakwe thought it would be a good idea to outlet to Sampson. But sheesh, that was like watching a baby deer try to stand up for the first time.
16:35 - Rodney Williams with the travel trying to drive, moving his feet before he gets the ball on the ground. How many times has that happened this year? Twice per game or so, no?
16:10 - Battle for three. 5-3 PSU. Sampson with a deep two-pointer to tie it up. That guy sure loves his jumpshot.
14:26 - Battle with another three to make it 11-7 Penn State. Hair trigger style too, he looks incredibly dialed in. Obviously that's a negative. They have him running baseline against the Gopher 2-3, and they're going to need the wings to pay more attention, because he completely ran Iverson into a pick on that one.
13:38 - David Jackson misses another three. This guy should play for Michigan. Complete and total chucker, never saw a shot he didn't want to take, and at 6-7 basically refuses to go anywhere near the paint. I should also mention he's a starter on my fantasy team. Yes, my team sucks.
12:27 - Why do they keep calling Jackson "DJ Jackson?" Is that what he actually goes by? Because all the literature on Penn State calls him David. Not that I'd ever question Stephen Bardo, the worst starter on that awesome '89 Illinois team: Bardo, Kendall Gill, Nick Anderson, Kenny Battle, Lowell Hamilton. That was a hell of a squad.
12:04 - Armelin loves shooting. And that's good, because at least somebody is always looking to score. He doesn't really even seem to force it very often, it's just whenever it's open he's going to take it. He could end up being a pretty big-time scorer some day.
9:12 - Another three by Battle, 14-11 Penn State. Assisted by Tim Frazier. Those two give me nightmares. Battle can't graduate fast enough for me. Or run out of eligibility. Whichever.
8:16 - A three by some guy and penn state has five threes making up 15 of their 17 points. And it could easily be more but "D.J." Jackson can't shoot for shit. God damn the Gophers are awful at defending the three-pointer.
7:55 - Hey I have a book recommendation for the five of you who read this blog who actually read books: Scorecasting by Tobias Moskowitz and L. Jon Wertheim. It's basically like Freakonomics, but with sports topics. So where Freakonomics (also a great book) dug into the economics of drug-dealing and the socioeconomic patterns of naming your children, Scorecasting looks at things like "Does defense really win championships?" (yes, but so does offense), "Does calling a timeout to ice a player work?" (no), and "Why does home court advantage exist?" (it's the referees, for real.) Just really great stuff, clearly researched by nerds but presented in a way that normal people will enjoy reading. Read it, if for no other reason that the next time you want to throw something at your tv when your team is on the road and you're convinced they're getting screwed, you'll at least have some facts that support you.
7:42 - Hoff for three, 19-16 Penn State. Let's do more of that, please. and Battle answers with a shot that doesn't even make any sense that he made it. I hate to say I told you so, but he's looking like he's beyond dialed.
6:42 - It's almost 6:11. I'm giddy with anticipation.
6:11 - Yep, that'll do it. Bardo calls Mbakwe a "grown man" which is still the stupidest compliment in history. Well, other than "dapper."
4:40 - Whoa. Battle missed. That's whack. PSU grabs the o-board of course. Luckily some guy who isn't Battle clangs the open three-pointer. Hoff with his third three and it's 26-24 Penn State. I don't understand how that guy gets open threes against anybody. If I was a coach every time my team let Hoff have an open three-ball they'd be running laps. And I don't mean at practice, I mean I'd take whoever's fault it was out right then and there and make him run around the court in front of the fans and cameras and everything. I'm tough like that.
3:50 - Ralph scores with a jump hook. I bet you can't guess who Bardo compared him too. Go ahead, you'll never get it right. Oh. Yeah. It was his dad. For the 53rd time this season.
1:41 - Another high-low from Iverson to Mbakwe and teh Gophers are up 28-26. They are killing them inside, but it should be even worse considering Penn State's only good inside players have both been on the bench for much of this half with foul issues. Just sad. I don't feel good at all right now.
0:28 - You know what the best movie I've seen in a long time is? Threat Level Midnight.
0:00 - 29-28 Penn State at half. Terrible half if you aren't Trevor Mbakwe (10 pts, 10 rebs at half). And that's with Jeff Brooks missing basically the entire first half. My tummy hurts. I need a beer.
19:24 - Frazier hits a desperation three-pointer with the shot clock at 1. Great. Good omen.
16:54 - Good god does Penn State love to launch the three-pointer. Is the Big Ten just a three-pointer dominated league? Northwestern, Michigan, and Wisconsin are all in love with it, and apparently Penn State is too. Hold on, let me get my tape recorder out: "Do some nerd research on if the Big Ten is a more three-point heavy league than the other ones." There.
16:04 - I desperately want to see Iverson shoot a three-pointer. What would that even look like? Probably similar to watching Ralph try to play PG on a fast break. Also the Gophers are still losing, 34-32. They really need to do something about that.
14:29 - Sampson hits a three, white announcer guy gushes, Bardo references his dad (#54 this year). Seriously, can we calm down with the moistness after Ralph hits a perimeter shot, please? Yes, it's great that a 7-footer can hit a three, but what would be even greater is if that 7-footer could spend more than 10% of his time in the paint instead of flitting about on the perimeter. You're a big man, get your ass in the paint and post up. If the perimeter jumper comes to you, great, but you should not be looking for it. It's like a counselor once told me, you're not an alcoholic if you're hunting the booze, you're an alcoholic if the booze is hunting you. Which means I need another beer.
13:32 - Here's my impression of Tim Frazier: I'm going to drive the lane because nobody on this slow ass team can stop me but I have no intention of even looking to score but it doesn't matter because the Gophers haven't figured this out so they collapse to stop me and guess what I know exactly where my buddy Talor is and I just found him for another open three-pointer which he of course nailed. Boom roasted.
13:06 - And it's all falling apart. Fart.
11:53 - Talor Battle must have the patience of a saint. If I were him and these were my teammates I'd be in prison.
10:38 - Sometimes doing a live blog isn't fun at all. Penn State 47, Minnesota 37. I might not type anymore.
8:25 - Five straight for the Gophers, getting it inside to Mbakwe and finding Hoff for a 3-pointer. Why is it those are literally the only two scoring options for this broke ass team?
7:43 - huh.
6:44 - Rodney Williams for three?
5:59 - Well lookie there, we're tied at 50 on what has to be Iverson's fifth assist at least. And then he follows it up with an idiotic out-of-position foul where he should have just given up the layup but instead tries to do something and ends up giving Penn State a free point. Apparently there's no magic IQ juice in retinol.
5:04 - Rodney with a great take and pull up and barely hits the far side of the rim. Love the aggressiveness, love using the athleticism to create an open jumper, hate the inability to shoot. And there's a lay-up and the foul for Rod. Free throw to tie.
5:04 - No. Of course. Christ.
4:45 - Rodney now looking extra aggressive, took the rock to the hole. Unfortunately his handles aren't exactly The Professor level and he basically handed the ball to Frazier. Fortunately, the refs inexplicably called him for the foul, and fortunately Rodney somehow made both free throws. 55-54 Penn State.
4:10 - Battle airball from about 35-feet as the shot clock expires. This I like.
3:49 - Rodney with a great fucking pass from the top of the key to find Iverson for a lay-up. Is this a coming out party? I feel like it might be a little bit.
2:09 - Hoff to Iverson for a dunk and 3-point Gopher lead. That was quite pretty, especially when you consider it was a couple of white dorks.
1:08 - Hoff takes a retardedly stupid shot, which he misses, which leads to a break for Penn State, which leads to an open 3 for Battle, which he of course makes, and it's now 62-60 Nittany Lions. Mother fuck.
0:52 - Do something, idiots.
0:38 - Hollins travels with 2 seconds on the shot clock. Here is what happened after a Tubby Smith timeout: pass in to Hoff, pick with no roll with Mbakwe at the top of the key, over to Rodney on the wing, dribble, dribble, throw to Hollins 35 feet from the hoop with 4 seconds on the shot clock. That's your play? Did you even draw anything up or did you just spend the whole time telling the team to play defense? Honest to Odin, Tubby is a bad game coach. Not terrible or horrible, but bad. Bad bad bad. What the fuck was that exactly? Every single time they need to run a play at the end of the game they got nothin? When they get in the huddle do you think Tubby just shrugs his shoulders? Embarrassing, predictable, and ridiculous. Also, for the record that's pretty much was Mrs. W says to me each night in bed.
0:22 - 16 seconds. It took 16 seconds to make sure to foul Battle. Fuckin' bunch of geniuses here.
0:22 - Lane violation? Please let this matter. It would be too sweet for it not to.
0:17 - Oh good, a timeout. I'm sure we'll be seeing an absolute superb play here.
0:14 - Hoff throws it directly out of bounds. I'm going to murder someone.
0:06- Hoff for three after two PSU free throws. Penn State still up by 2. I have no idea why I'm still typing words. FFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFfff.
0:06 - Battle misses the first. There's still a chance. Makes the second. Timeout Penn State. Can't wait to see what kind of brilliant play Tubby draws up. I'm willing to bet it ends up with Maverick getting the ball at the near free-throw line having to Tyus Edney it, but he will get to about mid-court and then throw it out of bounds.
Great play. Just great. Awesome. Coaching genius. I hate this team.
Keep in mind throughout this game that I made a semi-large wager on Talor Battle over 26.5 points+rebounds+assists, so I'll be rooting for him to do well at the same time I'm dying for a Gopher win. Here's what I know: Bogart told me to look for Mbakwe at 6:11 left in the first half, and Dawger called me at 8:24, which would be not long after the game ends. I've been trying to figure out why he'd call me, but I'm guessing at this point we're going down to the wire. Let's see.
19:24 - Iverson fouled on the games first possession, makes one. Sounds about right. It's a bit disconcerting that with the big lineup in the ball didn't get anywhere near the point until there were 4 seconds left on the shot clock, but whatever.
18:36 - Gophers in a zone and are really shading Battle. Whichever area Battle is the defender is almost playing man on Battle, even without the ball. Interesting strategy which leads to Battle getting nothing but backboard on a pro range three. What a stupid bet.
17:27 - Jesus christ, Ralph. Although I don't know if that's really his fault, not really sure why Mbakwe thought it would be a good idea to outlet to Sampson. But sheesh, that was like watching a baby deer try to stand up for the first time.
16:35 - Rodney Williams with the travel trying to drive, moving his feet before he gets the ball on the ground. How many times has that happened this year? Twice per game or so, no?
16:10 - Battle for three. 5-3 PSU. Sampson with a deep two-pointer to tie it up. That guy sure loves his jumpshot.
14:26 - Battle with another three to make it 11-7 Penn State. Hair trigger style too, he looks incredibly dialed in. Obviously that's a negative. They have him running baseline against the Gopher 2-3, and they're going to need the wings to pay more attention, because he completely ran Iverson into a pick on that one.
13:38 - David Jackson misses another three. This guy should play for Michigan. Complete and total chucker, never saw a shot he didn't want to take, and at 6-7 basically refuses to go anywhere near the paint. I should also mention he's a starter on my fantasy team. Yes, my team sucks.
12:27 - Why do they keep calling Jackson "DJ Jackson?" Is that what he actually goes by? Because all the literature on Penn State calls him David. Not that I'd ever question Stephen Bardo, the worst starter on that awesome '89 Illinois team: Bardo, Kendall Gill, Nick Anderson, Kenny Battle, Lowell Hamilton. That was a hell of a squad.
12:04 - Armelin loves shooting. And that's good, because at least somebody is always looking to score. He doesn't really even seem to force it very often, it's just whenever it's open he's going to take it. He could end up being a pretty big-time scorer some day.
9:12 - Another three by Battle, 14-11 Penn State. Assisted by Tim Frazier. Those two give me nightmares. Battle can't graduate fast enough for me. Or run out of eligibility. Whichever.
8:16 - A three by some guy and penn state has five threes making up 15 of their 17 points. And it could easily be more but "D.J." Jackson can't shoot for shit. God damn the Gophers are awful at defending the three-pointer.
7:55 - Hey I have a book recommendation for the five of you who read this blog who actually read books: Scorecasting by Tobias Moskowitz and L. Jon Wertheim. It's basically like Freakonomics, but with sports topics. So where Freakonomics (also a great book) dug into the economics of drug-dealing and the socioeconomic patterns of naming your children, Scorecasting looks at things like "Does defense really win championships?" (yes, but so does offense), "Does calling a timeout to ice a player work?" (no), and "Why does home court advantage exist?" (it's the referees, for real.) Just really great stuff, clearly researched by nerds but presented in a way that normal people will enjoy reading. Read it, if for no other reason that the next time you want to throw something at your tv when your team is on the road and you're convinced they're getting screwed, you'll at least have some facts that support you.
7:42 - Hoff for three, 19-16 Penn State. Let's do more of that, please. and Battle answers with a shot that doesn't even make any sense that he made it. I hate to say I told you so, but he's looking like he's beyond dialed.
6:42 - It's almost 6:11. I'm giddy with anticipation.
6:11 - Yep, that'll do it. Bardo calls Mbakwe a "grown man" which is still the stupidest compliment in history. Well, other than "dapper."
4:40 - Whoa. Battle missed. That's whack. PSU grabs the o-board of course. Luckily some guy who isn't Battle clangs the open three-pointer. Hoff with his third three and it's 26-24 Penn State. I don't understand how that guy gets open threes against anybody. If I was a coach every time my team let Hoff have an open three-ball they'd be running laps. And I don't mean at practice, I mean I'd take whoever's fault it was out right then and there and make him run around the court in front of the fans and cameras and everything. I'm tough like that.
3:50 - Ralph scores with a jump hook. I bet you can't guess who Bardo compared him too. Go ahead, you'll never get it right. Oh. Yeah. It was his dad. For the 53rd time this season.
1:41 - Another high-low from Iverson to Mbakwe and teh Gophers are up 28-26. They are killing them inside, but it should be even worse considering Penn State's only good inside players have both been on the bench for much of this half with foul issues. Just sad. I don't feel good at all right now.
0:28 - You know what the best movie I've seen in a long time is? Threat Level Midnight.
0:00 - 29-28 Penn State at half. Terrible half if you aren't Trevor Mbakwe (10 pts, 10 rebs at half). And that's with Jeff Brooks missing basically the entire first half. My tummy hurts. I need a beer.
19:24 - Frazier hits a desperation three-pointer with the shot clock at 1. Great. Good omen.
16:54 - Good god does Penn State love to launch the three-pointer. Is the Big Ten just a three-pointer dominated league? Northwestern, Michigan, and Wisconsin are all in love with it, and apparently Penn State is too. Hold on, let me get my tape recorder out: "Do some nerd research on if the Big Ten is a more three-point heavy league than the other ones." There.
16:04 - I desperately want to see Iverson shoot a three-pointer. What would that even look like? Probably similar to watching Ralph try to play PG on a fast break. Also the Gophers are still losing, 34-32. They really need to do something about that.
14:29 - Sampson hits a three, white announcer guy gushes, Bardo references his dad (#54 this year). Seriously, can we calm down with the moistness after Ralph hits a perimeter shot, please? Yes, it's great that a 7-footer can hit a three, but what would be even greater is if that 7-footer could spend more than 10% of his time in the paint instead of flitting about on the perimeter. You're a big man, get your ass in the paint and post up. If the perimeter jumper comes to you, great, but you should not be looking for it. It's like a counselor once told me, you're not an alcoholic if you're hunting the booze, you're an alcoholic if the booze is hunting you. Which means I need another beer.
13:32 - Here's my impression of Tim Frazier: I'm going to drive the lane because nobody on this slow ass team can stop me but I have no intention of even looking to score but it doesn't matter because the Gophers haven't figured this out so they collapse to stop me and guess what I know exactly where my buddy Talor is and I just found him for another open three-pointer which he of course nailed. Boom roasted.
13:06 - And it's all falling apart. Fart.
11:53 - Talor Battle must have the patience of a saint. If I were him and these were my teammates I'd be in prison.
10:38 - Sometimes doing a live blog isn't fun at all. Penn State 47, Minnesota 37. I might not type anymore.
8:25 - Five straight for the Gophers, getting it inside to Mbakwe and finding Hoff for a 3-pointer. Why is it those are literally the only two scoring options for this broke ass team?
7:43 - huh.
6:44 - Rodney Williams for three?
5:59 - Well lookie there, we're tied at 50 on what has to be Iverson's fifth assist at least. And then he follows it up with an idiotic out-of-position foul where he should have just given up the layup but instead tries to do something and ends up giving Penn State a free point. Apparently there's no magic IQ juice in retinol.
5:04 - Rodney with a great take and pull up and barely hits the far side of the rim. Love the aggressiveness, love using the athleticism to create an open jumper, hate the inability to shoot. And there's a lay-up and the foul for Rod. Free throw to tie.
5:04 - No. Of course. Christ.
4:45 - Rodney now looking extra aggressive, took the rock to the hole. Unfortunately his handles aren't exactly The Professor level and he basically handed the ball to Frazier. Fortunately, the refs inexplicably called him for the foul, and fortunately Rodney somehow made both free throws. 55-54 Penn State.
4:10 - Battle airball from about 35-feet as the shot clock expires. This I like.
3:49 - Rodney with a great fucking pass from the top of the key to find Iverson for a lay-up. Is this a coming out party? I feel like it might be a little bit.
2:09 - Hoff to Iverson for a dunk and 3-point Gopher lead. That was quite pretty, especially when you consider it was a couple of white dorks.
1:08 - Hoff takes a retardedly stupid shot, which he misses, which leads to a break for Penn State, which leads to an open 3 for Battle, which he of course makes, and it's now 62-60 Nittany Lions. Mother fuck.
0:52 - Do something, idiots.
0:38 - Hollins travels with 2 seconds on the shot clock. Here is what happened after a Tubby Smith timeout: pass in to Hoff, pick with no roll with Mbakwe at the top of the key, over to Rodney on the wing, dribble, dribble, throw to Hollins 35 feet from the hoop with 4 seconds on the shot clock. That's your play? Did you even draw anything up or did you just spend the whole time telling the team to play defense? Honest to Odin, Tubby is a bad game coach. Not terrible or horrible, but bad. Bad bad bad. What the fuck was that exactly? Every single time they need to run a play at the end of the game they got nothin? When they get in the huddle do you think Tubby just shrugs his shoulders? Embarrassing, predictable, and ridiculous. Also, for the record that's pretty much was Mrs. W says to me each night in bed.
0:22 - 16 seconds. It took 16 seconds to make sure to foul Battle. Fuckin' bunch of geniuses here.
0:22 - Lane violation? Please let this matter. It would be too sweet for it not to.
0:17 - Oh good, a timeout. I'm sure we'll be seeing an absolute superb play here.
0:14 - Hoff throws it directly out of bounds. I'm going to murder someone.
0:06- Hoff for three after two PSU free throws. Penn State still up by 2. I have no idea why I'm still typing words. FFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFfff.
0:06 - Battle misses the first. There's still a chance. Makes the second. Timeout Penn State. Can't wait to see what kind of brilliant play Tubby draws up. I'm willing to bet it ends up with Maverick getting the ball at the near free-throw line having to Tyus Edney it, but he will get to about mid-court and then throw it out of bounds.
Great play. Just great. Awesome. Coaching genius. I hate this team.
Wednesday, February 16, 2011
Game Preview: Minnesota Gophers vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
Hard to believe at this late date that the Gophers still haven't played Penn State, but here we are, with these two titans of college basketball about to square off, bubble implications abound. The Nittany Lions sit at 6-7 in conference play and are tied with Minnesota (and Michigan) for sixth in the conference, but while the Gophers are in right now and the Wolverines are starting to trend towards an outside shot at a longshot bid, the Lions are moving in the wrong direction and have ceased to be included on ESPN's Bubble Watch. Basically they'd need a miracle run that would include wins over the Gophers twice, Ohio State, and Wisconsin to get back in. The scary part is I think they can do it.
They already have a win over Wisconsin this year - the clear second best team in the league, and pushed Purdue to the wire at Purdue. They also still have that win over Illinois, which might not mean all that much right now but they were playing well at that time, and a win over Michigan State that will probably look better as time goes on. They also gave the Buckeyes their stiffest non-Wisconsin test so far in conference and did it in Columbus. Simply put, this team can beat, or lose to, any team at any time anywhere. And it all still starts with Talor Battle.
He has some decent help this year, finally, which we'll get to later, but Battle is still that scoring dynamo who can single-handedly win a game for PSU. He can hit the three, get to the rim, hit the mid-range, and get to the line. He can score or set up his teammates, he grabs a ton of rebounds for a little guy, and he's a good defender. To make it worse, he's basically torched the Gophers every time they've played other than one game in his freshman year, and tends to raise his level of play when needed - like when Penn State needs to win out the rest of the year to get him to his first and only NCAA Tournament. I fear what numbers he's going to put up, but based on his success against this team and Nolen still being out I think 35 isn't out of the question.
The good news for the Gophers is that most of his help comes from Jeff Brooks, a 6-8 senior who has made an incredible leap this season, nearly doubling his stats from last year (from 7.4 to 13.6 scoring, from 4.2 to 7.0 rebounding, and from 0.5 to 1.7 blocks all while increasing his field goal percent from .500 to .578). I say this is good news for the Gophers because although Brooks may accidentally wander outside from time to time he's more of your classic banger, and with Sampson, Iverson, and Mbakwe in the paint Brooksy is going to find it tough to operate - just ask Christian Watford, Melsahn Basabe (the second time), or Jordan Morgan.
Outside of those two, Penn State does have some additional players worth looking out for, including two more senior forwards in Andrew Jones and David Jackson. Jones a 6-10, 245 lb. big man who isn't much offensively at just 6.2 points per game, but who can help control the game through his work on the boards. He averages 5.8 per game, good for 12th in the conference, and has hit double-digits twice in conference play including 14 against Wisconsin. Jackson, on the other hand, is more your slasher/shooter, standing at 6-7 and averaging 10.4 points per game while shooting 36% from three. He doesn't completely rely on the three to get his points with less than half his FG attempts from behind the line, but he can use it to light up at opponent - he's hit three 3s in a Big Ten game three times this year. Since I'm not worried about Brooks, Jackson may be the biggest concern behind Battle.
I say maybe because the last guy I want to mention for the Lions is an intriguing sort, and that's sophomore point guard Tim Frazier. Frazier reminds me quite a bit of a taller (6-1) Lewis Jackson - lightning quick with a great ability to penetrate off the dribble and the kind of player we wouldn't worry all that much about if Al Nolen was around. But he's not, so I'm worried. Frazier is more of an assist guy with 4.8 per game on the year compared to 4.8 points per game, but he's gaining confidence and becoming more aggressive. After averaging 3.7 shots per game and 4.6 assists through PSU's first 20 games, he's averaged over 7 shots per game over their last four, increased his assists to 5.8 per game, and has shot 22 of his season total 56 free throws - that's 40% of his attempts in 17% of the games. He's attacking the basket and either scoring, setting up a teammate, or getting fouled. Basically Frazier is peaking right as he's about to play a team that's going to have trouble guarding him. Ungood. I'm looking for a career game here.
As far as team play goes, Penn State is a pretty good offensive team (36th in the country in offensive efficiency), if a bit of a chucker-type team (276th in 3-pt % despite shooting an above average amount of three-pointers), and a decent defensive team with some weaknesses. Unfortunately, their weakness - not forcing turnovers and getting torched from three - are things they don't really have to worry about with the Gophers who will turn it over plenty on their own and couldn't hit a three-pointer (outside of Hoff) if they fell out of a boat.
So what we have here is a desperate team full of desperate seniors who need to basically win out home for those seniors to have a chance to make their only NCAA Tournament appearance at home against a team that historically plays poorly on the road, and one of those seniors is one of the best all-around players in the conference who torches the Gophers regularly when they do have their best defender, a player who is currently out and who is also the only player on the roster who can guard the team's point guard who is gaining confidence and ready to explode into a mini-star. And also the best ways to be sure to beat Penn State - taking care of the basketball and hitting threes - are things the Gophers suck at. So yeah.
Penn State 67, Minnesota 63.
They already have a win over Wisconsin this year - the clear second best team in the league, and pushed Purdue to the wire at Purdue. They also still have that win over Illinois, which might not mean all that much right now but they were playing well at that time, and a win over Michigan State that will probably look better as time goes on. They also gave the Buckeyes their stiffest non-Wisconsin test so far in conference and did it in Columbus. Simply put, this team can beat, or lose to, any team at any time anywhere. And it all still starts with Talor Battle.
He has some decent help this year, finally, which we'll get to later, but Battle is still that scoring dynamo who can single-handedly win a game for PSU. He can hit the three, get to the rim, hit the mid-range, and get to the line. He can score or set up his teammates, he grabs a ton of rebounds for a little guy, and he's a good defender. To make it worse, he's basically torched the Gophers every time they've played other than one game in his freshman year, and tends to raise his level of play when needed - like when Penn State needs to win out the rest of the year to get him to his first and only NCAA Tournament. I fear what numbers he's going to put up, but based on his success against this team and Nolen still being out I think 35 isn't out of the question.
The good news for the Gophers is that most of his help comes from Jeff Brooks, a 6-8 senior who has made an incredible leap this season, nearly doubling his stats from last year (from 7.4 to 13.6 scoring, from 4.2 to 7.0 rebounding, and from 0.5 to 1.7 blocks all while increasing his field goal percent from .500 to .578). I say this is good news for the Gophers because although Brooks may accidentally wander outside from time to time he's more of your classic banger, and with Sampson, Iverson, and Mbakwe in the paint Brooksy is going to find it tough to operate - just ask Christian Watford, Melsahn Basabe (the second time), or Jordan Morgan.
Outside of those two, Penn State does have some additional players worth looking out for, including two more senior forwards in Andrew Jones and David Jackson. Jones a 6-10, 245 lb. big man who isn't much offensively at just 6.2 points per game, but who can help control the game through his work on the boards. He averages 5.8 per game, good for 12th in the conference, and has hit double-digits twice in conference play including 14 against Wisconsin. Jackson, on the other hand, is more your slasher/shooter, standing at 6-7 and averaging 10.4 points per game while shooting 36% from three. He doesn't completely rely on the three to get his points with less than half his FG attempts from behind the line, but he can use it to light up at opponent - he's hit three 3s in a Big Ten game three times this year. Since I'm not worried about Brooks, Jackson may be the biggest concern behind Battle.
I say maybe because the last guy I want to mention for the Lions is an intriguing sort, and that's sophomore point guard Tim Frazier. Frazier reminds me quite a bit of a taller (6-1) Lewis Jackson - lightning quick with a great ability to penetrate off the dribble and the kind of player we wouldn't worry all that much about if Al Nolen was around. But he's not, so I'm worried. Frazier is more of an assist guy with 4.8 per game on the year compared to 4.8 points per game, but he's gaining confidence and becoming more aggressive. After averaging 3.7 shots per game and 4.6 assists through PSU's first 20 games, he's averaged over 7 shots per game over their last four, increased his assists to 5.8 per game, and has shot 22 of his season total 56 free throws - that's 40% of his attempts in 17% of the games. He's attacking the basket and either scoring, setting up a teammate, or getting fouled. Basically Frazier is peaking right as he's about to play a team that's going to have trouble guarding him. Ungood. I'm looking for a career game here.
As far as team play goes, Penn State is a pretty good offensive team (36th in the country in offensive efficiency), if a bit of a chucker-type team (276th in 3-pt % despite shooting an above average amount of three-pointers), and a decent defensive team with some weaknesses. Unfortunately, their weakness - not forcing turnovers and getting torched from three - are things they don't really have to worry about with the Gophers who will turn it over plenty on their own and couldn't hit a three-pointer (outside of Hoff) if they fell out of a boat.
So what we have here is a desperate team full of desperate seniors who need to basically win out home for those seniors to have a chance to make their only NCAA Tournament appearance at home against a team that historically plays poorly on the road, and one of those seniors is one of the best all-around players in the conference who torches the Gophers regularly when they do have their best defender, a player who is currently out and who is also the only player on the roster who can guard the team's point guard who is gaining confidence and ready to explode into a mini-star. And also the best ways to be sure to beat Penn State - taking care of the basketball and hitting threes - are things the Gophers suck at. So yeah.
Penn State 67, Minnesota 63.
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