Game Preview: Gophers vs. Ohio State

Because the schedule says they have to the Gophers are going to play Ohio State on Tuesday night and they are going to get killed.  The Gophers do one thing well on defense - create turnovers - and they suck at everything else.  Well the Buckeyes don't really turn the ball over and they shoot the ball at an incredible rate if you prefer the ball going in the basket.  They hit 41% from three and 58% from two which rounds out to the third best shooting team in the entire country by effective field goal percentage.  Does this really sound like a team the Gophers beat?

Did you watch these guys the last two games?  Unfortunately I did, other than the 10 minute stretch I fell asleep during the Maryland game because I was really sick.  So sick I couldn't even drink.  Oof.  Anyway, the Gophers press the shit out of you and try to create turnovers and when it works it's glorious.  When it doesn't, however, there are open shots all over the place and you have to hope the other team misses more than they should.  That's not going to happen against Ohio State.

The Buckeyes have three guys in the top 254 in the country in effective field goal percentage.  D'Angelo Russell shoots the ball so much he'd be a great chucker if he didn't make everything, Sam Thompson decided he is in fact not Rodney Williams 2.0 and has decided to make a ton of shots, and Marc Loving defied my prediction and is, in fact, awesome at making the ball go in the hole. 

Six of the other seven guys who play would actually also all rank in the top 254 if they played and/or shot more.  Amir Williams, Jea'Sean Tate, Trey McDonald, and Anthony Lee make everything they shoot because they know what shots they should take, Kam Williams is some kind of deadeye shooter, and Keita Bates-Diop is 6-7 and shoots 62% from two and 44% from three.  The one guy who is a little bit of a suspect shooter is Shannon Scott the world's greatest defender who is one of the few guards in the conference who could shut down Dre Mathieu and who has a world class assist rate because he's really good at setting up all these good shooters for easy shots.

Pretty simple equation for this one.  Gophers give up a ton of easy shots, Ohio State hits all easy shots.  The Gophers would have to score a ton to keep this one close, but Ohio State has no real defensive weaknesses so I'm not seeing how that happens.  Short of the Gophers creating a ton of turnovers, which not even Louisville could do against these guys, this is a bloodbath.

Ohio State 80, Minnesota 56.  

Big Ten Basketball Preview: #2 Ohio State Buckeyes

In typical Thad Matta fashion the Buckeyes lose a ton from last year's team.  The three top scorers from last year are gone in LaQuinton Ross (15.2 ppg, also led the team in rebounding), Lenzelle Smith (11.0ppg, also led in 3-pointers), and annoying yet admittedly valuable Aaron Craft (9.8 ppg, also led in assists and steals).  I mean, that's a team that's been gutted.  Unfortunately, in true Thad Matta fashion, Ohio State is going to be loaded again anyway.  The #1 ranked recruiting class in the conference this year (#8 nationally) will join the #2 class last year (on a per player, basis) along with the probably top available transfer who is immediately eligible and the Buckeyes will keep rolling.  Great.

The one guy who could be fun to watch is Marc Loving, who is going to end up near the top of my B10 Chucker Power Ratings if I actually end up doing that which I plan on but I'm pretty lazy.  Loving, a 6-7 wing who ranked as the 62nd best recruit in 2013 averaged about 5 points per game last season in 11 minutes per game.  More importantly, he took 23% of the Buckeyes' shots when he was on the floor last season while shooting 37% from the floor including just 26% from three.  I don't want to get too excited here since there is so much other talent here that could end up screwing this up, but those numbers are fantastic indicators when it comes to Chucker potential, which we all know is the second most entertaining thing that can happen in basketball behind Circus Ball.  The departure of LaQuinton Ross, Lenzelle Smith, and Aaron Craft opens up 426 shots from lasts season.  I think Loving has real potential to reach 30% of the team's shots when he's on the court, a number reached only by Ross and Terran Petteway last season, though more efficiently.  This has a chance to be a truly special season.

Of course there are plenty of people who will try to get in the way of that and help the Buckeyes win games more efficiently.  There are the returning contributors:  center Amir Williams (8pts/6rebs/2blks per) who is kind of a stiff offensively but is a defensive force, wing Sam Thompson (8pts/3rebs) who is crazy athletic but is kind of Rodney Williams-ish in that he's still waiting to put all that talent together, and point guard Shannon Scott (8pts/3.5asts/2stls) who was overshadowed by Craft but might actually have been a better defensively.  It wouldn't surprise me if any of these guys ended up leading the Buckeyes in scoring since they all have the talent and the opportunity is there.  If I'm guessing I'd put Scott the most likely to break out and Williams the least, but nothing would surprise me.

Then there's the freshman:  Kameron Williams (#58 overall/#13 shooting guard in 2013), Jae'Sean Tate (#28/#8 small forward in '14), Keita Bates-Diop (#22/#6 small forward), and especially De'Angelo Russell (#13/#1 shooting guard).  I mean, I agree that's an annoying amount of punctuation in the middle of those names, but that is a damn talented group being added to an already talented group.  Russell could be a one and done type of talent, and with Diop and Loving both at 6-7 they'll have a ton of positional flexibility.  If the freshman come together quickly enough and the returnees are improved that's one hell of a top 8, and considering Thad Matta generally goes only six or seven deep this team is plenty talented.

Oh, right, and in case you forgot they also signed transfer Anthony Lee from Temple who will be immediately eligible thanks to that graduate transfer rule that is well intentioned but is really just taken advantage of as a loophole for players who outperform initial expectations to jump to better schools.  Lee is a 6-9 power forward who averaged 14 points and 9 rebounds for the Owls last season and was pretty much regarded as the top available transfer on the market this offseason after putting up eleven double-doubles last year.  So the Buckeyes second five will probably be Williams (#58 freshman - redshirt), Tate (#28 freshman), Diop (#22 freshman), Loving (sophomore, #62 last year), and Trey McDonald (senior center).  That's probably a top 5 Big 10 team right there.  These guys just don't stop.

Oh, and they already have three Top 100 guys signed for next season.  Good stuff.


OTHER PREVIEWS:
#3 NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS
#4 MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS
#5 ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI
#6 MICHIGAN
#7 MICHIGAN STATE
#8 IOWA HAWKEYES
#9 MARYLAND TERRAPINS
#10 INDIANA HOOSIERS
#11 PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS
#12 NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS
#13 PURDUE BOILERMAKERS
#14 RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS

Gophers 63, Ohio State 53

I had really hoped the Gophers would manage to snag one win out of this brutal four game stretch, and here it is - so now I hope they can get two.  Sure, this win loses a little bit of luster since it was Ohio State's third straight loss, but they're going to be fine and this will still end up as a big time signature win at the end of the year.

Once again, 10 things I liked and didn't like about the game:

1.  I never thought I'd type this sentence this season, but the Gophers dominated the inside.  How good was Eliason yesterday?  No, his footwork is never going to make you think of Olajuwon, but he's managed to harness his post up game into something good enough to at least make defenses pay attention to him, and his rebounding and defense have been absolutely top notch this year to the point where he has a legitimate case as Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year if they hadn't already decided to give it to Aaron Craft before the season started.  Also have to mention Mo Walker last night, who did more good for this team in a 60 second span than he has the rest of his career combined.  I knew Ohio State had some issues in the paint but Amir Williams is Rickert-soft, and the Gophers bigs made the Buckeyes pay.

2.  The half-court offense was top notch.  I said the Gophers would need to take advantage in transition if they were going to try to compete, but once again it shows why I'm not a coach and instead just write about basketball while drunk.  I was concerned the Gophers would do that thing where they rely on the 3-ball in the half court and with OSU's perimeter defense that was never going to work.  Well it didn't work as they made just 3, but they didn't rely on it either, shooting only 14.  Instead they worked the ball around, were more patient than I can remember this team being - ever - and found good shots to where they shot 64% on two-point shots.  64%!!!!  That's insane.  Great game.

3.  I don't think I'll ever feel comfortable with the power forward spot.  Oto had a decent game, and I do like that he seems to have become the dude on the team who won't take any shit from anybody (something about having an Eastern Europeaner as the "enforcer" feels right), but it seems just about impossible for me to feel comfortable when he's in the game.  What's worse, is that I actually audibly groan when he's taken out because King is even worse.  I guess what I'm saying is, screw you NCAA for not giving us our Buckles (averaging 13 and 9 for FIU).

4.  The defensive game plan was solid too.  The pressure was soft with little to no trapping, which is a good plan against Craft and Shannon Scott if you're going to insist on pressing at all (and we know Pitino does) and half court was strictly zone, forcing the Buckeyes to beat you from the outside.  I mentioned in my preview that this was a good plan, and it worked well with solid rotations in most cases and good overall fundamental defense.  Their was a bit of an issue with LaQuinton Ross getting the ball at the free throw line and being able to score from there (he had 22) but they didn't let Craft or Scott beat them with penetration for the most part and the rebounded very well.  Excellent game on both ends, both in planning and execution. 

5.  Craft and Scott are as good as advertised defensively.  For all the hype I still came away impressed.  Very quick feet, fundamentally sound, and both have about the quickest hands I can remember seeing.  They also both have the basketball smarts to "jump routes" for lack of a better term, and each did it with success last night.  I was also impressed with Craft's ability to go over a screen but slip between his man and the screener so he doesn't give up any ground.  One other thing I noticed was that when the man they're guarding picks up the ball to pass sometimes rather than jump at him they'll jump back to try to get into the passing lane from close up, not every time, but it's not something I can recall seeing many guards do.

6.  Daquein McNeil has clearly jumped Maverick in the rotation.  Once again McNeil got the playing time that could have gone to Ahanmisi, and it's clear at this point that Pitino prefers the freshman.  Could simply be he knows neither of them is great now, but McNeil figures into his future plans while Mav is gone after this season.  McNeil certainly looks every bit the part of a freshman playing in the Big Ten for the first time, but to be fair most of the time so does Maverick.  All I know is Dawger thinks it should be Mav, which pretty much tells me that going with McNeil in those spots is the absolute right move. 

7.  I have no idea what's going on with Austin Hollins.  He did finally seem to snap out of his funk or whatever when he got his own rebound off a missed free throw and put it back in, later making a couple more FTs and getting a key steal, but he just looked lost out there for much of this game and really outside of the Purdue game hasn't been much of a factor in Big Ten play - or at least not a positive factor.  At this point he seems to be having trouble with basic skills like dribbling and catching, and it's really weird.  I don't know if it's a confidence issue or what, but given that Pitino seems to have raised the confidence level of pretty much every other player that seems unlikely.  I'm going to chalk it up to he's pressing a bit given it's his senior year, and assume at some point the real Austin Hollins comes back.  That would be helpful.

8.  Did you ever think a late signing, 5-9 Juco point guard would be this good?  I know I didn't, but thank god for the Honey Gopher who has clearly taken the point guard position over and allowed Dre Hollins to move to the #2, a move that helps the team immensely.  There was a string there in the second half when it looked like Ohio State might be making a move, but Mathieu hit a couple of short jumpers in order to keep the Gophers ahead - as big as Mo's big stretch was, Mathieu's might have been even bigger.  His assist to Dre to hit that monster three towards the end of the game was a thing of beauty, and a sign of a perfect match of player to coach as, in reality, the best move may have been to slow things down and run clock, but Mathieu has the freedom to run and create, and it worked to perfection.  He's one of the most fun players to watch I can remember in a while.  If you ever hear anyone say that Honey Gopher needs to slow down or play more in control I'm going to need you to hit them in the face with a shovel.  Please.  I don't ask you for much.

9.  Turnovers remain an issue.  18 turnovers and a 29% turnover rate is absolutely horrendous, and pulling out a win despite those numbers just shows how well every other facet of the game went for the Gophers last night.  In their five Big Ten games the Gophers are turning the ball over 21.8% of the time, dead last in the conference.  This might be skewed a bit because the Gophers have already played the top two defenses in the conference in Michigan State and Ohio State, but no doubt this is a major concern.

10.  An NCAA bid now becomes a very reasonable goal.  The Gophers are now 14-4 and 3-2 in conference play, with an RPI of 26 and SoS of 13 (per ESPN), and two wins already over RPI Top 25 teams (Ohio State, Florida State) - those are some pretty awesome numbers, and based on the fact that the SoS will probably go up rather than down and the RPI is so good right now, I'll say nine Big Ten wins gets the Gophers in.  Simple math says that means six more victories.  These games are there for the taking:  @Nebraska, Northwestern, @Northwestern, Illinois, Indiana, and Penn State.  Those games will likely see the Gophers favored, and those are your six wins right there.  There is also Purdue on the road which is certainly winnable.  If the Gophers win all those they're in.  If they lose one and win at Purdue they're in.  And if they manage to win any of the other games, any at all, any other major upset, and it would take a pretty bad collapse to keep them out.

So, you know.  Let's not do that.

Game Preview: Gophers vs. Ohio State

The Buckeyes are reeling, having lost two straight - on the road at Michigan State and at home to Iowa.  With some coaches/teams you might say that this is a great time to play them, when they might not be sure what's going on with them and perhaps their confidence is shot.  But this is Ohio State and Thad Matta, a team that's 15-2 and has won at least 29 games each of the last four seasons, and a team made up mostly of upperclassmen.  They're going to be mighty pissed.

Iowa managed to score 84 points against Ohio State, which is pretty incredible considering how good Ohio State is when it comes to defense, ranking 7th in overall defensive efficiency.  That's the first time the Buckeyes have given up that many points in almost two full seasons, and Iowa's 1.14 points per possession would rank Ohio State as a bottom 20 defense in the entire NCAA if that was a full season number.  Iowa was able to turn a Buckeye team over quite, a feat considering Ohio State takes pretty good care of the basketball, and convert a lot of those turnovers into points.  They also got into the paint and attacked the rim, shooting 55% from two (Ohio State allows just 43% shooting from two on the year).  The Gophers have a chance at replicating the turnovers, but Ohio State's incredible perimeter defense has me concerned that they won't be able to score enough points to keep up with the Buckeyes.

Ohio State absolutely shuts down the three-point line, both by limiting looks overall and by playing tough enough defense that opponents only make 26.9% of their attempts (7th in the country).  IOwa doesn't rely on the three and didn't against Ohio State, shredding them at the rim instead.  The Gophers, as we know, are heavily reliant on the three pointer.  Basically their offense matches up horribly against Ohio State. Additionally, the Gopher offense is heavily predicated on the guards making things happen with their three highest usage players (Draustin Hollins and the Honey Gopher) creating off penetration.  Once again, Ohio State's defense is set up perfectly to defend against this with Aaron Craft (not overrated, despite how often you have to hear about him) and Shannon Scott (nearly as good as Craft, if not as fundamentally sound) guarding a team's main ballhandlers and Sam Thompson and Amir Williams in the middle to block shots.  The Gophers are going to need to get transition opportunities and take advantage of them in order to score.

They should be able to get them, because offensively Ohio State is good but not great.  They're very efficient on two pointers (54%), but struggle a bit from three (34%) despite taking a big percentage of their shots from behind the arc (36%, 91st in NCAA).  If the Gophers play mainly zone, and I expect they will and they probably should, the hope would be the Buckeyes get into chucker mode and don't get hot.  If so, the Gophers need to run and run fast on every miss, because that will be their best opportunity for transition offense and the Buckeyes don't hit the offensive glass all that well.  Turnovers will likely be limited since Minnesota relies on steals quite a bit and Ohio State is the #1 team in the country at avoiding steals.


Personnel wise Ohio State is loaded with former high ranking recruits, and although none of them have become an offensive star they have seven guys who score between 7 and 13.6 points per game, and they play more like an NBA team when they have the ball, eschewing 2-point jump shots and either taking 3s or getting the ball to the rim.  6-8 swingman LaQuinton Ross is the closest thing they have to a go-to #1 option (leading scorer at 13.6ppg and only player with a real high shot %), and he's also the most likely to get lured into taking bad shots so hopefully that happens.  6-4 shooting guard Lenzelle Smith Jr. is the only other double digit scorer (12.2ppg) and he's one of the most efficient players in the conference because he avoids those two point jumpers (just 13% of his shots) choosing instead to shoot 3s (37% accuracy) or drive (61% on twos).  Despite only hitting 20 points once this year, he's probably the guy who scares me the most.

The rest of the team kind of takes their offense where they can get it.  Craft generally only shoots when he has either a wide open 3-pointer or can take it to the basket (9.1ppg), which he does often.  Scott (8.3ppg) is really fast, and although he's more likely to force up an outside shot he also excels at getting to the rim.  Amir Williams (9.6ppg) is pretty much the team's only post player and pretty much scores in the post and on offensive putbacks.  He's also the team's best rebounder (6.7rpg) although Ohio State really rebounds by committee with all 6 players who play 20 or more minutes averaging 3+ boards per game.  Sam Thompson (7.6ppg) will spend time in the paint as well, he's a Rodney Williams-like athlete with a better mid-range game. 6-7 freshman Marc Loving looks like he could be the next DeShaun Thomas with 7.0ppg in just 13 minutes per, and Amedeo Della Valle plays limited minutes (13mpg) but he's the closest thing Ohio State has to a shooter (37% from three, 68% of attempts from there) and against the Gophers zone we're certain to see him come in.

Vegas will likely have Ohio State as a 3-point favorite, and that seems about right to me.  Iowa showed that Ohio State is beatable and the Gophers the ability to beat them.  Run, attack the rim, hit the three when it's there, and limit dribble penetration by the Buckeyes and force them to become a jump shooting team.  Maybe easier said than done, but Iowa was able to do these things and come away with a huge win, and the Gophers have shown against Syracuse and Michigan State that they can compete with some of the nation's best.  Unfortunately, they've also shown against Syracuse and Michigan State that they can't close, and until they do I can't quite believe in them against a top tier opponent.

Ohio State 68, Minnesota 64

Two Down, One to Go for 2010

Tubby Smith secured his second committment for the class of 2010 with shooting guard Austin Hollins choosing Minnesota over the likes of Arkansas, Memphis, and Oregon State.

Hollins doesn't have any stars on Rivals, which doesn't necessarily mean he's terrible or anything, it just means they haven't evaluated him - which is really weird.  Scout.com gives him 3 stars and ranks him the #34 shooting guard in the country for his class.  Scouting reports I can find say he's an excellent shooter with good range, but is not the most athletic or strongest player.  One big key I saw on the Scout report is they say a strength of his is his upside/potential.  Has Tubby grabbed a diamond in the rough?

Pairing him with Eliason (with one scholarship still available) is a rather underwhelming class, but might be necessary.  With two consecutive classes ranked in the top 25 nationally, and large classes at that, grabbing some role players and high upside guys makes some sense, and I still have full and complete trust in Tubby so I'm not worried about it. 

I would still love to get a top flight PG like Joseph or McCallum, but those are starting to feel less and less likely to me.  Even if Tubby ends up with another player rated similarly to the two already aboard, this is by no means a step backwards, just a holding pattern.  Hopefully he can grab someone like Shannon Scott in 2011, the Georgia PG who is #12 on the Rivals 150 and already holds an offer from Minnesota, and bring in another top rated class.