I admit I thought Penn State had a chance to be a sleeper in the Big Ten this season. I said they had a chance to finish as high as 5th in the league this year (though I also said they could finish 14th and it wouldn't surprise me). As usual, I'm an idiot and they are terrible. They're 1-6 in conference play, which is actually worse than the Gophers if you can believe that. That lone win came against Rutgers at home, and outside of a nice win over George Washington there isn't a single thing in their schedule they can be proud of. The next best things are home wins over Akron and a 6-point road loss to Michigan State. It's been that kind of season.
I thought Penn State could be a sleeper because they had an "elite" player (depends on how you want to define elite though) and a bunch of returning upperclassmen. Hasn't quite worked out. D.J. Newbill (the "elite" guy) is pretty much playing out of his mind (22 points, 4.5 rebs, 3.1 assists per game with good shooting percentages) but nobody has stepped up to help.
Brandon Taylor is shooting the ball a ton but has stopped driving and become a jump shooter which has killed his percentages, and his increased ball handling has turned him into a turnover machine. Ross Travis is still an elite rebounder but has pretty much completely checked out offensively and is 5-29 on free throws this year (5-29!!!!). John Johnson, one of the only perimeter threats on the team, has been suspended indefinitely for being a bad boy. Donovan Jack turns the ball over whenever he touches it, Jordan Dickerson shoots 46% and he's 7-1, and Geno Thorpe has done the opposite of improve in his sophomore year. Freshman Shep Garner is having a nice season and he's going to be an outstanding four year player for the Nittany Lions in the Tim Frazier/Talor Battle mode (called it!) but he's the only one outside of Newbill who's not having a terrible season.
If the Gophers go zone, and they should, barring a monster game from Newbill (certainly possible) they should be able ton hold Penn State down. The Nittany Lions don't move the ball well with just 42% of their baskets coming off an assist (341st in the country) and they don't shoot the 3 well at just 32.8% (218th) - both of which are sort of keys when going up against a zone defense. Only Newbill and Garner - both at 36% - are credible three point shooters with Johnson in detention. Taylor will shoot 'em and he is 8-15 over his last 3 games so the Gophers should probably guard him and stuff, but overall this year he's been pretty brutal (prior to this hot streak he went 4-26). Letting most of the team bomb away should be to the Gophers' advantage.
Outside of that they're pretty average at most stuff, and I don't mean average for a Big 10 team I mean average for a division I team which includes all 344 teams. They foul a ton, don't create any turnovers, and are pretty lackluster at just about everything. They don't get the ball stolen from them much, which could be interesting since it's a Gopher strong point, and they defend ok but nothing special. It's a disappointing and not very scary team, and one the Gophers should be able to deal with.
That "should be" is really the key. I feel strongly enough to guarantee you the Gophers have an 8-12 point lead at some point in the second half. It's a Big Ten road game, and we've seen what happens to this team when they have a late lead. Is the win over Illinois enough to get this team back on track and confident enough to close this one out? Probably not but I'm rolling with it.
Minnesota 70, Penn State 62.
Showing posts with label D.J. Newbill. Show all posts
Showing posts with label D.J. Newbill. Show all posts
Wednesday, January 28, 2015
Monday, October 6, 2014
Big 10 Basketball Preview: #11 Penn State
Now Tim Frazier, like Talor Battle is gone. The next version may have just arrived in University Park (more on him later) but for now at least the cupboard isn't totally bare as the Nittany Lions bring back an all-league player (I assume, I didn't look this up) in D.J. Newbill, the second leading returning scorer in the conference at 17.8 points per game. Newbill doesn't have the all-around game Frazier had, but he was a more efficient scorer (50.2 vs. 46.3 eFG%) despite a higher usage rate, and he out-rebounded Frazier 4.9 vs. 4.4 per game while coming in second on the team in assists. He really is an excellent scorer, hitting double figures in 31 of 34 games last year, and also very consistent, as he never scored more than 25 in a game. That'll probably be different this year.
After Newbill you have five guys who are pretty much known commodities, seeing as they're all juniors or seniors. Ross Travis is the tough bang around rebounder, Brandon Taylor is the stretch four, Donovan Jack is the athlete, John Johnson is the shooter, and Jordan Dickerson is the seven footer. The good news is these guys are all experienced, all have a skill, and mostly all have size (only Johnson at 6-1 is smaller than 6-6). The not as good news is this is basically the same team from last year that went 6-12 in conference, except without their best player.
There's certainly upside here. With this many older players it increases the likelihood that one or more of them make more than a marginal improvement over last season and it's possible somebody becomes a solid second banana. Travis could develop a more complete offensive game and/or completely dominate the boards. Taylor or Jack could become an elite scorer. Johnson could destroy from the 3-point line or Dickerson could become a paint destroyer. That's why I'd say of all the lower division teams (as I'm predicting) I think Penn State has the most potential to jump up and surprise. Of course it's equally likely these guys are who we think they are, and they finish 11th. It will be especially difficult for anyone to make a big jump without a real playmaker, and that's why Shep Garner is so important.
Garner, a freshman guard from Philly, ranks as the 34th point guard in the country per ESPN, just three spots behind our own Nate Mason. The interesting thing to me is how similar his profile sounds to Tim Frazier's when he was a freshman: great instincts, lightning quick, ability to play either guard spot equally well, attacks the rim, needs to add strength. great ball handler and passer, under control, high basketball IQ - it's all here. Now it's a pretty bold statement to say this kid will come in and be the next Tim Frazier so I know it sounds crazy and probably won't happen, but if it does, remember you heard it here first. Plus he's from Philly and was basically a Penn State commit the minute he was born, so if does end up good we'll be tortured by that story over and over again and the universe likes to annoy me so.......
Anyway, PSU is a hard team for me to figure out. They could finish anywhere from 5th to 14th and it wouldn't shock me. Plus things are looking up with two ESPN Top 100 recruits already on board for 2015. Two more than the Gophers, FYI.
Other Previews:
#12 NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS
#13 PURDUE BOILERMAKERS
#14 RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS
After Newbill you have five guys who are pretty much known commodities, seeing as they're all juniors or seniors. Ross Travis is the tough bang around rebounder, Brandon Taylor is the stretch four, Donovan Jack is the athlete, John Johnson is the shooter, and Jordan Dickerson is the seven footer. The good news is these guys are all experienced, all have a skill, and mostly all have size (only Johnson at 6-1 is smaller than 6-6). The not as good news is this is basically the same team from last year that went 6-12 in conference, except without their best player.
There's certainly upside here. With this many older players it increases the likelihood that one or more of them make more than a marginal improvement over last season and it's possible somebody becomes a solid second banana. Travis could develop a more complete offensive game and/or completely dominate the boards. Taylor or Jack could become an elite scorer. Johnson could destroy from the 3-point line or Dickerson could become a paint destroyer. That's why I'd say of all the lower division teams (as I'm predicting) I think Penn State has the most potential to jump up and surprise. Of course it's equally likely these guys are who we think they are, and they finish 11th. It will be especially difficult for anyone to make a big jump without a real playmaker, and that's why Shep Garner is so important.
Garner, a freshman guard from Philly, ranks as the 34th point guard in the country per ESPN, just three spots behind our own Nate Mason. The interesting thing to me is how similar his profile sounds to Tim Frazier's when he was a freshman: great instincts, lightning quick, ability to play either guard spot equally well, attacks the rim, needs to add strength. great ball handler and passer, under control, high basketball IQ - it's all here. Now it's a pretty bold statement to say this kid will come in and be the next Tim Frazier so I know it sounds crazy and probably won't happen, but if it does, remember you heard it here first. Plus he's from Philly and was basically a Penn State commit the minute he was born, so if does end up good we'll be tortured by that story over and over again and the universe likes to annoy me so.......
Anyway, PSU is a hard team for me to figure out. They could finish anywhere from 5th to 14th and it wouldn't shock me. Plus things are looking up with two ESPN Top 100 recruits already on board for 2015. Two more than the Gophers, FYI.
Other Previews:
#12 NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS
#13 PURDUE BOILERMAKERS
#14 RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS
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