This probably seems like a weird time to come back. The Gophers are now 0-3 on the Big Ten Season and at this point the only decent wins they can point to are an almost blown win against an ok Georgia team and a win at Wake Forest that we still aren't sure if it's a decent win or a throwaway win. The team's best player is pretty much in the tank and may or may not be still or newly hurt and the team depth seems to be getting shallower by the minute. A gritty effort was proven to not be enough, and the team continued the tradition of screwing up end of game possessions, dropping a heart breaker that would have been enough to restore some optimism to the fan base. It's not a wonderful time to be a fan.
But you know what? Kind of it is. The loss to Purdue basically told me everything I needed to know about what kind of team and year this was going to be (and this isn't hindsight, I said so in the preview) so, after a mini-breakdown or tantrum or hiatus or whatever term you prefer, I returned to watch the game against Ohio State with zero expectations, other than expecting the Buckeyes to win. With lowered expectations comes lower stress levels and in a strange way more of an enjoyable viewing experience. So after the Buckeye loss instead of being angry about another missed opportunity, I was pleased they hung in there and more of an "aw shucks would have been nice to get that one." That's not being happy with a moral victory, it's simply accepting reality. There was almost no way they were going to win that game - Ohio State is about 50 times better than they are - and it would take something miraculous to make the NCAA Tournament. Once you accept that, it makes this year much easier to swallow.
So with that out of the way, let's move on to Saturday's game at Michigan. The Wolverines have had some much celebrated issues this year - the losses to NJIT and Eastern Michigan - and, well, we still don't really know what's up with Michigan this year. They started strong with wins over decent Syracuse and Oregon and hung tight with Villanova and everything looked like they'd be ok. Then came those two horrible losses followed by an absolute drubbing by Arizona. Since then they've won an overtime home game against Illinois, lost at Purdue, and lost at Penn State. So who really knows what's up with this team? I lean towards lower middle tier Big Ten team with very little shot at teh NCAA Tournament, so this should be a pretty even match up.
The bad news is the Wolverines really take care of the ball, and in particular they rarely have it stolen away - the Gophers #1 move. The good news is they aren't particularly good at anything else. This isn't one of the great shooting teams of the past few years, although they sure do like to chuck the three. Of all Wolverine 3-point attempts so far this year, 43.5% of them have been three pointers, and the team makes 35.9% which is a good, but not great number. Guards Caris LeVert (39%) and Derrick Walton (29%) and wing Zak Irvin (35%) all have over 50 3-point attempts already on the year, and all are capable of putting up either a 5-7 or 1-7 performance. They rely on those three heavily, and all play 33-35 minutes per game, scoring about 60% of the team's points. Getting the three to put the ball on the floor and take contested 2-pointers would be an excellent strategy, rather than letting them find open threes. Anyone helping on a driver off a perimeter shooter should be benched immediately (that includes Spike Albrecht, who doesn't have the volume but hits 40% and needs an open shot to score).
After those four nobody else plays more than 19 minutes per game and you may have noticed those four are all perimeter players so you may be asking "does this mean Michigan is weak inside" and the answer is a resounding yes. The only size on the team comes from three freshmen - 6-7 Kam Chatman, 6-9 Mark Donnal, and 6-9 Ricky Doyle and although the three have been better than I expected (combined 50 minutes, 16 points, 9 rebounds per game) they still aren't much of an inside presence. They don't block any shots (Michigan is 335th in the country in block rate) or grab any offensive rebounds (322nd), though they do protect the defensive glass well overall (40th). Mo Walker should (SHOULD!) be in line for a pretty big game.
All-in-all to me it looks like a pretty even matchup, and that includes the Wolverines' home court advantage. The Gophers should be able to feast inside, while Michigan will have plenty of chances to hit outside shots. I think if the Gophers let the pressure of being 0-3 get to them, they'll do stupid things and miss open shots. If they're relaxed and playing ball, they'll win. This one's on Pitino.
And I still believe.
Minnesota 69, Michigan 66
Showing posts with label Caris LeVert. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Caris LeVert. Show all posts
Thursday, January 8, 2015
Sunday, October 26, 2014
Big Ten Basketball Preview: #6 Michigan Wolverines
Michigan is, without question, the most difficult team to rank this year. Losing Nik Stauskas, Glen Robinson III, and Mitch McGary (kind of) to the NBA is a lot to recover from. Of course, the year prior they lost Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway to the NBA and were on the cusp of a second straight final four last season. Michigan might have the horses to step up and replace the departed NBAers, but replacing a couple other, less heralded losses might end up the more difficult task.
Caris LeVert leads the returnees at 12.9 points per game last season, a whopping leap from 2.3 ppg the year before after his playing time more than tripled filling in for the departed Hardaway. LeVert got better in pretty much every way you could think of last season, which doesn't always happen with increased usage, which bodes well for his future improvement. He's not the shooter Stauskas was, but then again who is, and he's effective from deep without being reliant on it and he already has Stauskas's ability to get to the rim. There is a definite void where someone could step in to replace Stauskas's production and LeVert is candidate number 1.
Two other key returnees were highly regarded and productive freshmen last year in Zak Irvin and Derrick Walton Jr. Walton's the point guard who did a nice job keeping the offense flowing (7.9 points/2.9 assists per game) and shot the ball well when called upon. It'll be interesting to see if he can stay as efficient as he was last year when the offense will rely on him more this year. Irvin looked smooth and polished already and had games where his shot was unstoppable, but as most young players who are almost completely dependent on the 3-pointer he also had completely awful games. If he pulled a Stauskas and added to his offensive skill set that'll go a long way towards making this team a threat again.
Now that we've discussed the obvious ways Michigan can patch their holes, now we need to look at what could be they're undoing: the losses of Jordan Morgan (graduation) and Jon Horford (transfer). They only combined for 10.2 points per game last year, but they also combined for 9.2 rebounds and 33.9 minutes. Even worse, there is nobody returning with any paint experience. The most experience returnee among paint type guys is 6-7 junior Max Bielfeldt, who has played a grant total of 195 minutes in his two years at Ann Arbor. And no, there is no convenient grad transfer who can step right in and help immediately, which is pretty surprising actually.
Which means an awful lot rides on some pretty talented freshmen. Irvin's 6-7 so he can probably play some PF in a pinch, but they'll need major contributions from at least 2 of 6-7 Kameron Chatman, 6-9 D.J. Wilson, 6-9 Ricky Doyle, and 6-9 Mark Donnal. Chatman is the jewel, ranking as a top 30 national recruit. He's more of a small forward than power forward as is Wilson, but at this point it's not like the Wolverines have a lot of options. The true PF/C types are Doyle and Donnal. Doyle is a top 200 type recruit who had an impressive offer sheet. He also comes from a basketball family so theoretically should have a high basketball IQ, which will definitely help him make an impact right away next season. Donnal is a red-shirt freshman who was a top 100 guy last year. It sounds like he already has a pretty solid offensive game with the ability to score inside or out, and if he can give them solid defense it would go a long way towards solving their paint problem.
Plenty of questions for the Wolverines, and not a completely dissimilar situation to Indiana with the lack of any real obvious options inside. I ranked the the Hoosiers 10th but the Wolverines 6th. Partially because Michigan has more coming back, but also because I think Beliein has a good thing going and will be able to mix and match well enough to have the Wolverines back in the NCAA Tournament, while Tom Crean couldn't coach his way out of a paper bag.
OTHER PREVIEWS
#7 MICHIGAN STATE
#8 IOWA HAWKEYES
#9 MARYLAND TERRAPINS
#10 INDIANA HOOSIERS
#11 PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS
#12 NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS
#13 PURDUE BOILERMAKERS
#14 RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS
Caris LeVert leads the returnees at 12.9 points per game last season, a whopping leap from 2.3 ppg the year before after his playing time more than tripled filling in for the departed Hardaway. LeVert got better in pretty much every way you could think of last season, which doesn't always happen with increased usage, which bodes well for his future improvement. He's not the shooter Stauskas was, but then again who is, and he's effective from deep without being reliant on it and he already has Stauskas's ability to get to the rim. There is a definite void where someone could step in to replace Stauskas's production and LeVert is candidate number 1.
Two other key returnees were highly regarded and productive freshmen last year in Zak Irvin and Derrick Walton Jr. Walton's the point guard who did a nice job keeping the offense flowing (7.9 points/2.9 assists per game) and shot the ball well when called upon. It'll be interesting to see if he can stay as efficient as he was last year when the offense will rely on him more this year. Irvin looked smooth and polished already and had games where his shot was unstoppable, but as most young players who are almost completely dependent on the 3-pointer he also had completely awful games. If he pulled a Stauskas and added to his offensive skill set that'll go a long way towards making this team a threat again.
Now that we've discussed the obvious ways Michigan can patch their holes, now we need to look at what could be they're undoing: the losses of Jordan Morgan (graduation) and Jon Horford (transfer). They only combined for 10.2 points per game last year, but they also combined for 9.2 rebounds and 33.9 minutes. Even worse, there is nobody returning with any paint experience. The most experience returnee among paint type guys is 6-7 junior Max Bielfeldt, who has played a grant total of 195 minutes in his two years at Ann Arbor. And no, there is no convenient grad transfer who can step right in and help immediately, which is pretty surprising actually.
Which means an awful lot rides on some pretty talented freshmen. Irvin's 6-7 so he can probably play some PF in a pinch, but they'll need major contributions from at least 2 of 6-7 Kameron Chatman, 6-9 D.J. Wilson, 6-9 Ricky Doyle, and 6-9 Mark Donnal. Chatman is the jewel, ranking as a top 30 national recruit. He's more of a small forward than power forward as is Wilson, but at this point it's not like the Wolverines have a lot of options. The true PF/C types are Doyle and Donnal. Doyle is a top 200 type recruit who had an impressive offer sheet. He also comes from a basketball family so theoretically should have a high basketball IQ, which will definitely help him make an impact right away next season. Donnal is a red-shirt freshman who was a top 100 guy last year. It sounds like he already has a pretty solid offensive game with the ability to score inside or out, and if he can give them solid defense it would go a long way towards solving their paint problem.
Plenty of questions for the Wolverines, and not a completely dissimilar situation to Indiana with the lack of any real obvious options inside. I ranked the the Hoosiers 10th but the Wolverines 6th. Partially because Michigan has more coming back, but also because I think Beliein has a good thing going and will be able to mix and match well enough to have the Wolverines back in the NCAA Tournament, while Tom Crean couldn't coach his way out of a paper bag.
OTHER PREVIEWS
#7 MICHIGAN STATE
#8 IOWA HAWKEYES
#9 MARYLAND TERRAPINS
#10 INDIANA HOOSIERS
#11 PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS
#12 NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS
#13 PURDUE BOILERMAKERS
#14 RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS
Wednesday, January 1, 2014
Hoops Preview: Gophers vs. Wolverines
Oh hey there. Been a while. I didn't mean to not post the entire holiday break, but I was sort of busy and extremely lazy so here we are. Doesn't matter now though, because I'm back as the Gophers kick-off the Big Ten season, and the real beginning of the Richard Pitino era (hopefully it ends up being an era or something), and I, for one, and absolutely thrilled they're opening the conference season at home against Michigan - it's the perfect measuring stick. I'm still not exactly sure what to make of this Gopher team, but we should be able to learn a whole lot Thursday night.
Michigan is a good, but not great team, that sits at 8-4 with three completely understandable losses (road games at Duke and Iowa State, home game vs. Arizona) and one weird loss (vs. Charlotte in Puerto Rico). They rank highly according to kenpom.com at #20, but that's not so much higher than the Gophers (who rank #34). They're also without their dominant (potentially) big man in Mitch McGary leaving ho-hum guys Jordan Morgan (in his seventh year) and Jon Horford as their only real post players, meaning the Wolverines don't have a clear match-up advantage over the Gophers. Perfect opponent to open.
If the Gophers in, they'll be in the running for an NCAA bid since this is the kind of game an NCAA tournament team wins. If they lose, we will know that the NCAA is not a likely result this year. Pretty simple stuff. If this was a road game you can't really definitely say you learned anything because road conference games can be super weird, while a home win over somebody like Purdue tells you nothing (though a loss would) and a loss at home to somebody like Ohio State doesn't really tell you anything either, and a win might not either. But this is pretty simple - Michigan is pretty much the demarcation line between good Big Ten teams and bad ones - so win this game and things look good for the season outlook.
It's also an interesting test in another way because many of the people who criticized the Pitino hire liked to say that the uptempo style he'd like to run wouldn't work in the Big Ten. Michigan is one of the slowest team's in the country (rank #304) and behind just Wisconsin, Illinois, and Northwestern in the conference. Michigan doesn't turn it over and they love to shoot the three ball (this is a Beilein team after all), and are quite good at it, so if the press + zone isn't on it's game there is serious potential for Michigan to blow this game open - in fact, I'd say a Michigan double-digit win is actually more likely than a Gopher double-digit win, even if, spoiler alert, I'm going to pick the Gophers to win the game. This year's Michigan team actually profiles a lot like a typical Wisconsin team, so the Gophers will need to be highly in sync on defense to hold Michigan down.
The Wolverines are lead by one of the most interesting players in the NCAA in my opinion in Nik Stauskas. With Tre Burke and Tim Hardaway off to the NBA somebody was going to have to step up on this team and many assumed it would be Glenn Robinson. Although Robinson's scoring is up (14.2ppg vs. 11.0 ppg) it's because he's taking a few more shots and his percentages and efficiencies remain basically the same. Stauskas, on the other hand, has exploded and completely changed his game. Last season he was the designated 3-point bomber, this year he's expanded his game and become their go to guy (18.2ppg vs. 11.0ppg). He's still a major threat from 3 (48% on 5.5 attempts per game), but he's also been taking the ball to the rim more and that's resulted in a lot more free throw opportunities. He's the rare player who has upped his possessions but upped his efficiency as well, and he's very dangerous spotting up in transition. Frankly he's terrifying.
Michigan's other threats are all guards as well in freshman point guard Derrick Walton, freshman wing Zak Irvin, and sophomore wing Caris LeVert. Walton is the team's true point guard, and like most freshmen point guards he's struggled with turnovers and his shot. He's basically the team's top ballhandler but is also the only turnover prone player on the team, which works out well for the Gophers. Irvin is a versatile scorer but has basically turned himself into this year's Stauskas, which has to be kind of infuriating for Michigan fans since I feel like he could be so much more. Then again I suppose you could do worse than 40% on 5.5 three point attempts per game with minimal turnovers. Finally, LeVert is another primary ball handler and another guy who has upped his usage big time this year (from under 3 shots per game to over 10). Overall he's been very efficient and, surprise, never turns it over, but he's also been really all over the map in terms of effectiveness as a scorer (his last five games he's scored 24-4-15-1-16). Not letting LeVert be the third scorer the Wolverines need will be a major key for Minnesota.
Outside of that core there's not much offense to be found. Spike Albrecht has the ability to hit a bunch of threes (see: first half of National Title game) but mainly has proven himself to be a capable back-up point guard. As previously mentioned big guys Horford and Morgan grab some rebounds, set some picks, and can block some shots (which is where they'll mostly be effective against the Gophers - turning back guard penetration). Horford is a little more versatile as he has a little bit of a jump shot while Morgan has none, but neither should make any kind of major impact on the game offensively.
In a lot of ways this Michigan team is built to take apart a team that plays the way the Gophers do - slow it down, don't turn it over against the press, and exploit the open three-point opportunities which will present themselves against the zone and in transition. I'd actually really like to see the Gophers mix in a good bit of man-to-man in this game since I don't think Michigan can take advantage of any mis-matches, but a well drilled zone team can shut down a 3-point team as well by closing out on threes and making the offense take bad shots (see: Syracuse vs. Villanova). Should be fun to see.
Basically if the Gophers are a NCAA Tournament caliber team they'll win this game. If they don't win this game, most likely they aren't a NCAA Tournament team. I believe that either the zone will work, or Pitino is a good enough coach and a coach willing to make changes that the Gophers will end up in a man-to-man and I think the advantage shifts to the Gophers in that case. I choose to believe.
Minnesota 74, Michigan 66
Also, before we get to the pictures, check out this Gopher Hoops Rube Roundtable including yours truly put together by the guys over at From the Barn, a tradition in it's third year (I did not participate last season because I completely forgot). Anyway, it's good stuff, check it out.
Michigan is a good, but not great team, that sits at 8-4 with three completely understandable losses (road games at Duke and Iowa State, home game vs. Arizona) and one weird loss (vs. Charlotte in Puerto Rico). They rank highly according to kenpom.com at #20, but that's not so much higher than the Gophers (who rank #34). They're also without their dominant (potentially) big man in Mitch McGary leaving ho-hum guys Jordan Morgan (in his seventh year) and Jon Horford as their only real post players, meaning the Wolverines don't have a clear match-up advantage over the Gophers. Perfect opponent to open.
If the Gophers in, they'll be in the running for an NCAA bid since this is the kind of game an NCAA tournament team wins. If they lose, we will know that the NCAA is not a likely result this year. Pretty simple stuff. If this was a road game you can't really definitely say you learned anything because road conference games can be super weird, while a home win over somebody like Purdue tells you nothing (though a loss would) and a loss at home to somebody like Ohio State doesn't really tell you anything either, and a win might not either. But this is pretty simple - Michigan is pretty much the demarcation line between good Big Ten teams and bad ones - so win this game and things look good for the season outlook.
It's also an interesting test in another way because many of the people who criticized the Pitino hire liked to say that the uptempo style he'd like to run wouldn't work in the Big Ten. Michigan is one of the slowest team's in the country (rank #304) and behind just Wisconsin, Illinois, and Northwestern in the conference. Michigan doesn't turn it over and they love to shoot the three ball (this is a Beilein team after all), and are quite good at it, so if the press + zone isn't on it's game there is serious potential for Michigan to blow this game open - in fact, I'd say a Michigan double-digit win is actually more likely than a Gopher double-digit win, even if, spoiler alert, I'm going to pick the Gophers to win the game. This year's Michigan team actually profiles a lot like a typical Wisconsin team, so the Gophers will need to be highly in sync on defense to hold Michigan down.
The Wolverines are lead by one of the most interesting players in the NCAA in my opinion in Nik Stauskas. With Tre Burke and Tim Hardaway off to the NBA somebody was going to have to step up on this team and many assumed it would be Glenn Robinson. Although Robinson's scoring is up (14.2ppg vs. 11.0 ppg) it's because he's taking a few more shots and his percentages and efficiencies remain basically the same. Stauskas, on the other hand, has exploded and completely changed his game. Last season he was the designated 3-point bomber, this year he's expanded his game and become their go to guy (18.2ppg vs. 11.0ppg). He's still a major threat from 3 (48% on 5.5 attempts per game), but he's also been taking the ball to the rim more and that's resulted in a lot more free throw opportunities. He's the rare player who has upped his possessions but upped his efficiency as well, and he's very dangerous spotting up in transition. Frankly he's terrifying.
Michigan's other threats are all guards as well in freshman point guard Derrick Walton, freshman wing Zak Irvin, and sophomore wing Caris LeVert. Walton is the team's true point guard, and like most freshmen point guards he's struggled with turnovers and his shot. He's basically the team's top ballhandler but is also the only turnover prone player on the team, which works out well for the Gophers. Irvin is a versatile scorer but has basically turned himself into this year's Stauskas, which has to be kind of infuriating for Michigan fans since I feel like he could be so much more. Then again I suppose you could do worse than 40% on 5.5 three point attempts per game with minimal turnovers. Finally, LeVert is another primary ball handler and another guy who has upped his usage big time this year (from under 3 shots per game to over 10). Overall he's been very efficient and, surprise, never turns it over, but he's also been really all over the map in terms of effectiveness as a scorer (his last five games he's scored 24-4-15-1-16). Not letting LeVert be the third scorer the Wolverines need will be a major key for Minnesota.
Outside of that core there's not much offense to be found. Spike Albrecht has the ability to hit a bunch of threes (see: first half of National Title game) but mainly has proven himself to be a capable back-up point guard. As previously mentioned big guys Horford and Morgan grab some rebounds, set some picks, and can block some shots (which is where they'll mostly be effective against the Gophers - turning back guard penetration). Horford is a little more versatile as he has a little bit of a jump shot while Morgan has none, but neither should make any kind of major impact on the game offensively.
In a lot of ways this Michigan team is built to take apart a team that plays the way the Gophers do - slow it down, don't turn it over against the press, and exploit the open three-point opportunities which will present themselves against the zone and in transition. I'd actually really like to see the Gophers mix in a good bit of man-to-man in this game since I don't think Michigan can take advantage of any mis-matches, but a well drilled zone team can shut down a 3-point team as well by closing out on threes and making the offense take bad shots (see: Syracuse vs. Villanova). Should be fun to see.
Basically if the Gophers are a NCAA Tournament caliber team they'll win this game. If they don't win this game, most likely they aren't a NCAA Tournament team. I believe that either the zone will work, or Pitino is a good enough coach and a coach willing to make changes that the Gophers will end up in a man-to-man and I think the advantage shifts to the Gophers in that case. I choose to believe.
Minnesota 74, Michigan 66
Also, before we get to the pictures, check out this Gopher Hoops Rube Roundtable including yours truly put together by the guys over at From the Barn, a tradition in it's third year (I did not participate last season because I completely forgot). Anyway, it's good stuff, check it out.
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