Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Game Preview: Gophers vs. Spartans

This game is non-interesting in an interesting way, and I mean that because it's the only game left on the schedule where I don't really care if the Gophers lose.  Obviously I hope they win, but going into East Lansing to play one of the better Spartan teams of the last few years is not a real great recipe for success and I harbor no illusions about their chances of winning (I'd put this around 1.2% - Ken Pomeroy says 11%).  Every other game the rest of the year is either a must win (every home game besides Mich State and Ohio State), a great chance to steal one on the road (@Nebraska (may be a must win), @Northwestern, @Iowa), or a good opportunity to grab a real quality victory (@ Wisconsin, Ohio State, Michigan State).  This is the only game left where a loss really doesn't represent any kind of negative hit or loss of a positive hit.

Draymond Green, Branden Dawson, and Keith Appling are all better than anybody the Gophers have.  Michigan State ranks #8 in both offensive and defensive efficiency while the Gophers are outside the top 50 in both.  Look at this link.  Look at it.  Green means good, red means bad, and neither means average.  Do you see any red on there?  No.  It's like the United States in the 1800s after all the Indians had been wiped out or whatever happened.  I don't know because I don't read books because I like to live life not read about it nerd, but I know that the Spartans rank higher than the Gophers in nearly every single metric you can think of.  Especially couches set on fire. 

I mean, I don't really want to oversell Michigan State here, but Draymond Green averages a double-double while still being in the top 10 in the Big 10 in assists.  They go 8 deep (and I mean actually 8 guys not like Maverick or whatever) and even managed to get Austin Thornton to be a quality contributor (side note:  this guy looks just like Bogart).  I'm pretty sure Brandon Wood kind of sucks but he'd be the leading scorer on the Gophers.  Sparty hasn't even come close to losing at home this year.  The closest any team has managed to stick is Lehigh who lost by 9 (and I assume Sparty was all like meh for this game).  They beat Florida State, who has since beat both Duke and UNC, by 16.  They beat Indiana by 15 and both Iowa and Purdue by nearly 30.  Yes 30.  They're a force.

I was going to write a whole bunch more on this, but after I started this post we had to go car shopping because my piece of shit car has broken down 3 times in the last two weeks and now I'm the owner of a spoiler-less Honda Civic.  Ballin'.

You jelly, brah?

Anyway, I can see the Gophs keeping this one semi-close and I don't think they'll get blown away like Nicole Eggert in that movie called Blown Away, but I don't think they ever seriously threaten either.  I'd love to be wrong.  Plus then I'd know what Dawger feels like all the time.

Michigan State 80, Minnesota 70.


Dawg said...

At least I don't have to squeeze into a large t-shirt!

Gary Busey said...

I don't subscribe to kenpom because I'm not a nerd or nerd enabler.

WWWWWW said...

Shoot I forgot you have to be a subscriber to see the stats.