Mini-Preview: Gophers vs. Buckeyes

I suppose I should write a preview here.  Can't imagine why, so it'll be short. 

Ohio State is one of the best teams in college ball, but as long as William Buford keeps playing with his head up his rectum and continues to not bring his jump shot to the games they are vulnerable.  The problem is they aren't exactly vulnerable to a team like the Gophers.  Even if Buford fell off the bus getting to the arena and broke his face off and couldn't play they'd still be a prohibitive favorite.  They are one of the best defensive teams in the country, and for an offensively challenged Gopher squad every point is going to be a struggle.  I did read somewhere yesterday that Ohio State's guards and big men struggle with ball screens (I think it was on Grantland.com), but unfortunately the Gophers don't really have the guards to take advantage of that.  Something to keep an eye on, because if the Gophers manage to stay in this one it's going to take having at least one guard (Dre Westbrook?) and at least one forward/center (Rodney?) running the pick-and-roll to near perfection.

Offensively there is also a tiny bit of good news.  The Gophers biggest weakness, as we all know for years and years, has been giving up too many open 3-pointers and Ohio State is a terrible shooting three-point team, especially with Buford apparently shooting left-handed or something.  But that's it for good news.  I have no idea how they're going to handle Sullinger with one guy who is too passive and one guy who is too clumsy and slow.  I fully expect we'll see a large dose of Andre Ingram tonight because Ralph and/or Elliason will be on the shelf with foul trouble.  I do hope Rodney Williams matches straight up with DeShaun Thomas, because I would actually love to see that matchup and see how Rodney fares.

So if the Gophers figure out a way to limit Sullinger, get some offense out of Ralph, Rodney can slow Thomas, and they can use ball screens to get in the lane and get good shots, they can hang.  I'm not expecting any of those things to happen.  I expect to see Aaron Craft and company be all over the Gopher guards in the half-court, causing a turnover-fest, and I expect them to feed Sullinger the ball where he will either score or find an open teammate for a shot when they double him.  Whether or not those shots go down will decide if this is an easy Ohio State win or a complete blow-out.

Ohio State 68, Minnesota 52

Week in Review - 2/13/2011

There are no word about the Gophers, or at least nothing more than a throwaway line here and there, in the below post.  Mainly because they didn't play this weekend.  I ripped off about 1,200 words after the loss to the dirty dirtball Sconnies, and I don't really feel the need to do it again when nothing has changed.  Plus there was only one comment left after that post where I poured out my heart and thoughts and so you asshole don't deserve any more.  You're lucky I post at all.


WHO WAS AWESOME

1.  Kentucky Wildcats.  I'm now starting to think that worrying about Kentucky being a young team and/or having a less than elite in-game coach doesn't really matter because good god thee guys are just not fair.  What did Kentucky do this week?  Well, they demolished their top contender in the conference by 20 (Florida, more on them later) and then went into Vandy, a pretty tough place to play, and beat the Commodore, probably the third best team in the conference.  They've got unstoppable inside scorers (Anthony Davis, Terrence Jones), three-point shooters (Doron Lamb, Darius Miller), slashers (Jones, Michael Gilchrist), shot blockers (Davis, Jones), and lock down perimeter defenders (Miller, Gilchrist).  Their "weak link" is point guard Marquis Teague, and he'd be the best player on 90% of college teams.  Just sick.  I have no idea how they're going to lose in March.

2.  Austin Rivers.  He's still got too much of a tendency to go one man show, and when he has the ball on the break you know he's taking the shot 80% of the time, but holy crap was Rivers awesome against North Carolina.  29 points with 6 three-pointers and everyone was big, including the game winner right in Tyler Zeller's stupid face.  Reading what some fans of both teams have written and this might be the "best" win by Duke in this rivalry, coming at Chapel Hill versus one of UNC's most talented squads, at least in recent memory.  And they basically did it because Austin Rivers' decided to breakout.  I think going pro after this season will be best for everyone involved because Rivers game is an NBA game and he's struggled trying to adjust playing within the constraints of a tight system rather than, "go get 40 Austin", but man, he is the real deal.

3.  Wichita State Shockers.  I don't usually like to talk about the Missouri Valley on account of it sucks so bad, but Wichita's win over Creighton this weekend was truly a thing of beauty.  See, at the beginning of the year Wichita was supposed to be this year's MVC darling, a team with a shot to knock off some good squads, have a successful conference season, and roll to an easy at-large bid with a chance to make some noise.  Then they lost to both Alabama and Temple in Puerto Rico and everybody was like, meh, while Creighton raced out to a 21-2 start and has everyone's darling Doug McDermott and was like Lindsay Lohan stealing everything Rachel McAdams had.  But then Wichita went to Creighton and completely destroyed the Blue Jays and no Creighton has lost three straight while Wichita can put this win with their win over UNLV and good computer numbers and are probably more likely to make it at-large than Creighton.  So suck on that, Lohan.

4.  St. Louis Billikens.   I'm guessing reading about St. Louis doesn't exactly rank in the top 5 of anybody's favorite things to do list, but it' rare you see a team take care of business like they have and have jumped from the lower-mid bubble to near the top of it.  The Billikens won on the road this week at both St. Joe's and LaSalle, two teams in contention for the Atlantic 10 crown, and now sit at 8-3, just a half game behind Temple, and that followed up a week where they beat St. Bonaventure and Dayton, two other teams towards the top of the A-10.  Their non-conference strength of schedule is awful (213 in the country) but they do have win over Washington, Oklahoma, Boston College, and Villanova - not exactly the 1927 Yankees but a better lineup than the Gophers' can show.  And they're trending up.  Fully expect Majerus to finally be back in the big dance.

5.  Cal Bears.  Ye, the Pac-10 is still horrible and yes, there's a good chance it's a one bid conference, but that's exactly what makes a team actually going out and doing something worthwhile notable because nobody ever does it in this league.  The Bears went on their road trip through Southern California and won at both USC and UCLA (their RPIs are 228 and 121, but remember it's the Pac-10 so we're on a different curve here).  This now brings them to 10-3 and 20-6 overall, and at least getting near the middle of the bubble.  Oh, and in case you're wondering Justin Cobbs had 28 point and 10 assists in those two wins.  (Also noteworthy:  Oregon also was 2-0 this week.  Devoe had 29 points and 7 assists.)  It's so funny I'm going to stab myself in the ankle with the bayonet I have sitting next to the couch.


WHO SUCKED

1.  Florida Gators.  Bit of a rough one for the Gators and those who at one point listed the Gators as a sleeper Final Four team.  First, on Tuesday, the had a big chance to make a statement going into Lexington to play the #1 Kentucky Wildcats and walked out 20-point losers, and then on Saturday they took a home gimme win vs. Tennessee and somehow ended up losing by five.  Actually I shouldn't say somehow, because it's pretty obvious than when a team is as dependent on the three-pointer the way Florida is (6th in the country in % of points coming from behind the line) when the shots aren't falling they're screwed.  The Gators 17-56 from behind the arc in those two games, significantly worse than their season mark of nearly 40%.  And a special shout-out to Erving Walker and Bradley Beal, who, along with Kenny Boynton, are basically the entire team and were 1-11 from 3 against Kentucky and 2-11 against Tennessee.  That reliance on the three makes them both a threat to make a run in March and an early upset candidate.  Guess I'm going to have to guess right.

2.  William Buford.  Buford actually had a pretty good game earlier in the week against Purdue (29 points on 10-17 shooting) which hurt the narrative a bit but he's been absolutely awful lately other than that game, and saved one of his worst for their big loss against Sparty, shooting 2-12 with 3 turnover (to 1 assist) for a grand total of 4 points.  Looking back, outside of that game against Purdue the last time Buford shot 50% or better in a game was the first game of 2012, and he's shot 29-104 in those games, and has had 29 turnover versus 21 assists.  Ohio State is really good and are absolutely a title contender, but if Buford doesn't get it figured out there's no way they're getting past the sweet 16. 

3.  Baylor Bears.  I still like these guys a lot, but after they lost to both Kansas (at home) and Missouri (on the road) this week it might be time to take a harder look.  Because they've now been swept by both those teams, and considering there are only three really good teams in the Big 12 (with apologies to Iowa State) that means that Baylor hasn't had a good win in quite some time.  There's no doubt they're still a very good team with the resume to prove it (wins over Kansas State, Miss State, West Virginia, St. Mary's, BYU, and San Diego State), but there are alarm bells ringing all over the place after those two sweeps.  Worth noting that Perry Jones scored 5 points against Kansas on 1-8 shooting and 4 points on 2-12 shooting against Missouri, which means he's only broken double digit scoring once in four game against these two teams.  I'm going to go ahead and not do anymore research and just assume he's a choker in big games.  Join me, won't you?

4.  The Grammys.  I'm thrilled they chose to award the Foo Fighters with basically every award they were up for, but I can't forgive them for slighting Wiz Khalifa for best rap performance and song.  You're seriously going to give the Grammy to Jay-Z and "Mail it in" Kanye for Otis over the masterpiece Black & Yellow from Wiz and give the other one to some collaboration with like six singer/rappers?  Joke.  I suppose I should just be happy it was nominated, but it should have won, but the politics of not giving a grammy to such a power collaboration probably made this inevitable.  The grammys used to mean something and be about the music but, much like when they stopped eating the groundhog in Punxatawney, we live in a sissified society.  Shame.  Check it:


5.  Murray State and Harvard.  I'm going to lump these two schools together because they both have an outside chance at an at-large berth, both stumbled this weekend (Murray lost to Tennessee State or Tech I'm not sure but I'm not looking it up and Harvard lost to Princeton), and both should probably do everything they can to win their league.  Harvard still looks pretty good with only one Ivy loss, and now that I look apparently Murray State is a lock to get an at-large according to ESPN so maybe I'm stupid.  I'm sorry, but how exactly are they a lock?  Even at 21-1 their RPI is 57 (Gophers are 54, FYI), Strength of schedule is 292, and non-conference strength of schedule is 132.  They only have four wins over the RPI top 150, and the two best are over Memphis and Southern Miss whose RPIs are top 25 but everyone know they suck.  One more conference loss and I say ship 'em to the NIT.  Plus maybe then I'll get to see them live at Williams' Arena, score!


Oh, and in case you're wondering if you missed him, no, I didn't write about Jeremy Lin because oh my god will you people shut up.

Wisconsin is Hitler

Just got back from the game.  I'm not even going to attempt to make this an organized post.  Just a bunch of thoughts.  So away we go for fun times.

1.  I hate Wisconsin.  I mean I really hate everything about Wisconsin.  I hate their stupid team, and their stupid players, and their stupid evil coach, and their stupid fans, and their stupid cheese obsession.  The only good things about Wisconsin are Spotted Cow Brewery and that you can play craps there.  Honestly if the ground opened up and swallowed the entire state (sans Turtle Lake) in a giant fire of aids the world would be a better place.  And the fans, oh my god.  Yes, you're allowed to cheer for your team when you're visiting another arena, but you are not allowed to stand up and yell, "Yes Jordan Taylor!" after every made basket and draw attention to yourself in a way that would be obnoxious even if you were rooting for the home team, and especially not if you're going to where some gay tie-dyed t-shirt that apparently says Wisconsin on it like some kind of dirty hippy.

2.  The last play.  I completely agree that putting the ball in Andre Hollins's hands was the right call.  He had been the best player for the Gophers the entire second half and deserved to have that chance.  What I don't understand was the time out called in order to have him go 1-on-1 with four guys standing still.  Give him a pick, or, when he first makes his move, run a screen away from the ball somewhere, because Hollins going against Taylor is rarely going to work.  Taylor is one of the best defenders in the league (although Snacks disagreed with the rebuttal "nuh uh") so they're not going to double to help.  The whole success of the isolation drive comes either from the dribbler beating his man and either getting to the rim or drawing the defense and finding and open man.  Calling the timeout gave Wisconsin's evil coach a chance to drill into his players brains (literally?  maybe) to not leave their men, and even though Sconnie's players are dumb, like all good Nazis they're great at following orders.

Hollins had a great game.  He stood up to Jordan Taylor and several times got the better of him, especially on the defensive end.  It was a breakout game for a possible future star and he was extremely fun to watch.  But at this point in their respective careers he's not going to beat Taylor very often.  He's just not, especially with nothing else going on away from the ball and the team being completely dependent on him to create the offense.  Plus, why call a timeout to call that play when you could just as easily yell "Andre go 1-on-1 when the shot clock gets down to 8 seconds."  Calling the timeout just gave the Dr. Robotnik a chance to remind his drones to stay home (note I haven't watched the last play because I'd rather have Jon Lovitz piss directly into my eyeballs, but if anybody doubled at all it came super late).  That "play" was just never going to work. 

The best chance they had was when they were stalling and running the clock and Taylor switched onto Rodney Williams.  Someone has to recognize that, whether it's Rodney himself, Hollins, or Tubby (especially him) and get Williams's ass into the paint.  At worst you end up with a slightly scrambling Wisconsin defense as they figure out who should be where, at best you end up with a mismatch and get Rodney the ball, in a game where he was practically unguardable because Wisconsin is slow and are assholes.  But nobody saw it, there was no real play called, Dre did his best in a tough situation, and that was that.

3.  It's easy to think about the bad, but there was some good at least, beyond even Hollins and Williams having really good games, and the big call-out for me was the defense.  Yes, Wisconsin hit too many three pointers, but after their 3-3 start they went just 6-20 and that included a couple of prayers by Taylor and Gasser that really shouldn't have gone in.  They played good,  physical defense and against a physical team and got the better of them most of the time, especially Hollins.  To use a stupid, annoying phrase that idiotic announcers overuse but fuck it I can't think of anything better right now, they punched the bully in the mouth and the bully well, didn't fall down because Sconnie still won, but they definitely held their own.  This point would feel way better if the Gophers had managed to eek out the win.

Which brings me to another positive, which is the comeback - failed yes, but still, they did fight back.  Also I just realized I'm talking about a moral victory and I really don't want to do that so let's move on from that part now.  Instead I'll just mention that the Barn was rockin' and the crowd did a great job.  It was funny because we were talking about Williams Arena before the game and wondering if a young kid who had never been there would be impressed.  And after the game we realized the problem with the Barn isn't the Barn, it's that the product has been so stale and mediocre the atmosphere just wanes of it's own volition.  Put a good product out there and the place rocks and there's no better place to be in college basketball except like Cameron and Phog Allen and you know, sweet places like that.

4.  Speaking of volition, I heard both Spencer and whoever that other idiot is mention that the Gophers should have had momentum going into overtime but I disagree.  When they blew their chance at the regulation I sure as shit didn't think, "they got this."  It was more like, "that was their shot, now we're hosed."

5.  And not to get back to the negative but what do you expect from me, but the Gophers were just awful in OT.  The offense degraded into playground ball where whoever has it just puts their head down and heads to the basket consequences be damned, and I'm sorry but the Gophers seem to be missing a guy like Hot Sauce or Half Man Half Amazing or Skip to my Lou.  The Gophers did a great job taking the ball to the rack in the flow of the offense all game, but lost their rhythm in OT.

6.  Sobieski vodka is the goods.  Nostrovia!  Also Maverick Ahanmisi has no business being on the court in a Big 10 game.  Chances I go to the game Tuesday:  10%.

7.  Oh, and forgot to mention that Ralph's OVER/UNDER on sportsbook.com for points + rebounds tonight was 11.5.  That is absolutely embarrassing for a senior 7-foot starter on a major college team.  AND HE DIDN'T CLEAR THE OVER.  If he had accepted my facebook friend request I'd totally defriend him right now.

Preview: Gophers vs. Badgers

So we watched Shark Night last night.  I was going to live blog it but that fell through and it's probably good that it did because after a promising beginning the thing just went completely off the rails (as I suppose most of these movies do) and it wouldn't have been worth reading.  Some of your high (and low) lights that I remember in the light of the cold dark day: 

-  I did not get any 3D glasses from the Redbox machine so I could not watch this in crisp cool 3D.  False advertising.

-  It had the dude in it from the O.C.  You know, the guy who says, "Welcome to the O.C. bitch" to Ryan in the pilot?  Unfortunately they did not work in any kind of sly O.C. reference which was a shame and SPOILER ALERT he ended up being the villain.  Yes we had villains not just sharks.  And by the way, I can't hear that Hallelujah song without thinking about Marissa dying.  Is that the most effed up thing you've ever heard in your life or what?  It's like my biggest shame or something.  You know, other than my life.

 -  It had a whole bunch of different species of sharks in it, which was a nice touch.  No goblin sharks though.

-  The main characters were a mishmash of Breakfast Club stereotypes who would never hang out in real life.

-  Apparently if you have your entire arm bitten off you can still live for like, ever (or until you get eaten by a shark) and even have the strength to use a makeshift spear to spear a hammerhead to death if a guy who is applying to med school applies a tourniquet.  Good information to have.

-  All sharks are blood-thirsty predators who will immediately chase down and eat any person who gets in the water.  This includes normally more timid species such as the hammerhead and the thresher shark, which has never attacked a human other than one time when one of them was provoked so the person probably deserved it.

-  Then my two favorite parts.   First, O.C. Villain dude tells hero guy that he is going to feed him to a tiger shark.  Truly terrifying creature.  Tiger sharks are probably my favorite because they're so bad ass and just don't give a fuck and will eat anything that comes near their mouth.  They have the second most recorded attacks on humans behind the great white.  If you go surfing in Hawaii you will get eaten by a tiger shark.  FACT.  They rock.  They look like this:

Then they cut to a shot of the "tiger shark" and it looks like this:

Scary looking?  Yes.  Scary?  No.  That's a sand tiger shark, and while the tiger shark has eaten 29 people in unprovoked attacks, the sand tiger's total is one.  One person.  Ever.  Plus if you've ever been to an aquarium that shark should look familiar because they're such big pussies they can survive and thrive in aquariums.  People always put them in aquariums because of that and that they look scary, but don't be fooled.  Might as well be a dolphin.  Nice science, movie jerks.

And then #2 is this:


Seriously that is so sweet it almost made up for the entire movie.  But it didn't.  Do not recommend.

Anyway I guess there's a game tomorrow.   By now you pretty much know what you're going to get with Wisconsin - a bunch of dumb-ass hillbilly hicks who are at the same time both douchey and too dumb to be douchey who are going to play an insanely boring game in which if they ever run while dribbling the Grinch will pull them out of the game and stare at them in anger like they're roast beast because his heart is two sizes too small.  You know the names - Sam Okey, Brian Butch, Kirk Penney, Mark Vershaw, Alando Tucker, Devin Harris, Joe Krabbenhoft, Kam Taylor, and, even though he was less annoying than the rest of these guys, Jon Leuer.  Almost completely unlikable, and this year's version of this team might be the most boring and annoying of any yet.

You don't need to be some kind of clearly brilliant analytical mind like Rick Reilly to know that the best player on this team is Jordan Taylor, but he might not be the real key tomorrow night.  You see, because as usual Wisconsin's offensive game plan is to walk the ball up as slowly as possible, pass it around the perimeter until someone falls asleep and then make a three-pointer.  It's what they always do.  But there's been a problem - they haven't shot well this year.  The Badgers are hitting just 35.6% from three this year, their worst mark since 2007.  They're also assisting on fewer made buckets than ever, with assists on just 50.9% of all made baskets, the lowest rate since 2003 (the oldest year I can find data for this).  So what does that mean?

I'm not exactly sure, but Taylor is taking fewer shots, making fewer shots, and this is the second least efficient Wisconsin offense since 2003 (again, oldest year available) behind just 2006.  Wisconsin's strengths on offense that have always led to a highly efficient team have been taking care of the basketball, crisp ball movement, and good outside shooting.  Of those three, taking care of the basketball is the only one Wisconsin is as sharp on as usual, which has led to some rough games this season already - three home losses including one to Iowa. 

The Gophers cannot let the Badger offense get going from outside.  In the loss to Iowa they were 3-28 from three (with just 9 assists).  In the loss to Michigan they shot just 7-20 and had only 6 assists for the game, Michigan State 5-22 with 5 assists, Ohio State 5-27 (10 assists), Marquette 5-19 (8 assists), and UNC 8-28 (6 assists).  It's pretty clear.  No open looks, no easy buckets, play tough defense and that's how you can beat this version of Wisconsin, because this is one of the best defensive teams in Bo Ryan's tenure.

No, really.  Taylor is very good, Ryan Evans gives them an athletic, wing tweener type they don't really have, and they have more than the usual gaggle of goofy looking white dudes to throw out there, and as anyone who has ever played at an open gym will tell you those goofy looking white guys are freaking tough.  They have extra long arms they use like Plastic Man, they go all out on every single possession even when their man doesn't have the ball, they're disciplined and don't take chances, and they freaking love to box out.  The Gophers are going to have a ton of problems scoring tomorrow, but it can be done because Wisconsin doesn't force you to turn the ball over, they just force you to take bad shots.  But Iowa of all teams was able to score 72 on them by being smart and WORKING THE BALL INSIDE (only 6 three point attempts for the Hawkeyes all game - yes the Hawkeyes).  Sconnie plays so slowly you will get precious few possessions, so be smart and make the right choices with the ball.

Look, I'll be the first to tell you this Wisconsin team is overrated and has a very good chance to be an early out in the tournament.  At the same time, their list of losses is at North Carolina, Marquette, Iowa, Michigan State (in OT), at Michigan, and at Ohio State - that's it.  That is a damn nice looking list outside of Iowa.  This is not a bad Wisconsin team by any means and this is going to be a very tough game for the Gophers and I fully expect a defensive struggle.  Actually whatever the OVER/UNDER is tomorrow, take the UNDER.  I don't care if it's 100, take the under. 

It all comes down to this.  Another must win, but this might be the last one.  I'm hoping not.

Minnesota 51, Wisconsin 47

My look at the Top 25 (part I - with bonus book review)

Ok I admit it - that Gopher loss to Iowa has completely drained me of my caringnessitude about this season.  I'll be back if they beat Wisconsin, but right now I don't see anything in this team that makes me believe they're going to snag an NCAA bid, and that's the whole point of the season.  That's why I took a nap on Sunday instead of watching them play Nebraska - I couldn't bear to watch another road implosion.  Luckily and happily for me, they ended up winning which is good.  Now it's time to play an extremely overrated Wisconsin team and if they can't win this one, that'll pretty much do it for the season.  I may write a preview and I may not, but you know what you're getting from the Badgers anyway.  Instead, I'm going to focus on the National Picture a bit, and give my thoughts on the Top 25.  I did this last year and it was a big hit with me and I don't really care about anyone else.  These are the rankings in the ESPN/USA today poll, not my personal rankings.

1. Kentucky Wildcats.  I think there are four teams this year that are head and shoulders above everybody else in terms of pure talent (Kentucky, Missouri, Baylor, and UNC) but Kentucky is head and shoulders above the other three who are head and shoulders above the rest and they're playing up to their talent this year.  Only loss is that 1-pointer at Indiana, and they've won 8 of their last 10 by at least double digits.  You're always at risk in the tournament with a young team and a coach who is 95% recruiter/5% game coach, but Doron Lamb, Terrence Jones, and Darius Miller have been there before and can give you some leadership where Calipari fails.  They also only go 6.5 deep even with all the blowouts so that's a concern (and I have no idea why Cal isn't giving more run to some other guys in these big wins to help hedge against possible foul trouble in a tournament game when you need someone to step in).  Plenty of worries here, but I'm going to have an awfully hard time picking anybody else as my national champion come bracket fill-out time. 

2.  Syracuse Orange.  I didn't list the Cuse as one of those top-4 talented teams this year but that's no slight to them because I think they do the best job of playing as an overall "team" (along with Mizzou).  Now that the Fab Melo situation has been figured out they've got a rare mix of players where they can dominate you in the paint, on the perimeter, or slashing to the hole and with their athlete's this year Boeheim's zone might be one of his best ever.  Opponent's do kill them on the offensive boards which can spell doom in a tight one, and I'm having trouble buying them completely because they lack any single win you can point to and say "holy shit Cuse is the goods", but they aren't 23-1 by accident.  Probably the one top team where I'm just not quite sure what to think.

3.  Ohio State Buckeyes.  Ohio State is a team I think is flying a little bit under the radar right now, as much as that's possible for a team ranked third in the country.  They beat Wisconsin this weekend in a slow-it-down, plodding game and just a couple of weeks ago beat Indiana in a more uptempo game.  Their ability to win without having to dictate the pace of the game is a huge positive, not to mention that in William Buford and Jared Sullinger they have what might be the best inside-outside scoring duo in the country right now.  They're a bit suspect from a big man stand point outside of Sullinger and, as usual, don't have much depth, but unless DeShaun Thomas shoots them right out of a game they have a great chance at another Final Four berth.

4.  Missouri Tigers.  One of the only teams I consider both supremely talented and supremely "team-y" for lack of a better term, Mizzou would be my clear pick to take the whole thing in March if it wasn't for damn Kentucky.  The Tigers have a reputation as a high-scoring, fast-paced team and they are high-scoring, but they score a ton of points not because they play so fast (105th in the country in tempo) but because they're so efficient (#1 in offensive efficiency).  Simply put, they make a lot of shots (#2 in the country in effective FG%) and they take a lot of shots because they rarely turn the ball over (#4 in the country) - thus they score a ton of points and force you to keep up.  They have the best back court in the nation and although they look a little weak on the front line since they only really have one true forward in Ricardo Ratliffe, their win going into Baylor and taking on maybe the best front court in college tells me everything I know - it's either going to be Missouri or Kentucky cutting down the nets at the end.

5.  North Carolina Tar Heels.  Probably the second most talented team in the NCAA behind Kentucky, but they seem to missing every single intangible quality possible - nothing new for a Roy Williams led team.  There's no leadership, no hustle, no killer instinct, and no drive.  I know they only have three losses, but in two of those they were absolutely crushed (by UNLV and Florida State).  And really, outside of the season opening win against Michigan State on a boat do they have a really good win?  Wisconsin is overrated, Texas is terrible, and although Long Beach is a very good mid-major that's still all they are.  I can't really guarantee an early exit because there is so much talent here, but Harrison Barnes, Kendall Marshall, and Tyler Zeller are all quite types who are looking for someone to follow - one of them needs to become THE guy or we're looking at a non-sweet 16 team here.

6.  Baylor Bears.  I have a feeling this is going to be the trendy pick for the Final Four (say they're a two seed) to come out of whatever region they end up in and it's tough to argue with - their two losses have been to Missouri and Kansas and that's it.  One underrated aspect of Baylor is they are one of the best free throw shooting teams in the country at 74.2% (35th in the nation) and that's helped them win a lot of close ones (six wins over major conference foes of 5 pts or fewer) and could be a difference maker in March.  The big worry is although Pierre Jackson has helped them out with the ball-handling this year Baylor is still one of the worst teams in the country in turning the ball over, and as we know one bad game and you're done.

7.  Florida Gators.  I still think Florida is a Final Four contender because they have such a good back court, but neither Patric Young nor Erik Murphy has become a consistent inside force and that's what they'll need to make a run because despite being perimeter oriented they aren't very good defensively.  Erving Walker has settled down and become less chucker and more distributor and he's really allowed Boynton and Beal to flourish.  I would love to see a Florida/Missouri match-up - the over/under would be about 170.

8.  Murray State Racers.  Please.  They've played nobody, and I mean nobody.  Their strength of schedule is 251, and non-conference it's 119.  The only teams they've played that are "real" teams are Memphis (won by 4), Southern Miss (won in double OT), and Dayton (won by 17) and there's a good chance non of them make the NCAA Tournament, which would make Murray State 0-0 against NCAA Tournament teams.  It's a cute team and a cute story, but not only have they not played anyone they aren't even beating the bad teams all that convincingly.  They shoot over 40% from three so you can't completely write them off, but I have a pretty strong feeling they're a first game loss.

9.  Duke Blue Devils.  Same year same basic soft Duke team where all you really need is a strong inside dude who can push their finesse big guys around and some guards who can get said big man the ball as well as defend the three.  It's why they lost to Florida State and why they lost to Miami on Sunday.  Mike Kryzkyzkewski loves pansies - it's true.

SIDE BAR:  I just finished up reading this book - The Last Great Game by Gene Wojciechowski who, to the best of my knowledge, is not related to that little Duke wiener, and I rather enjoyed it despite half the book being about Duke.  That might have been the best part, because it basically proved that Christian Laettner really was an asshole, Bobby Hurley really was a whiner, and that Duke team was one of the least likeable teams in the history of history.   The Kentucky half of the book is even better, since I was young enough at that time I didn't really realize how crazy it was that UK was even in that position considering the massive sanctions they were under in the few years prior.  To get Pitino from the NBA, keep several of their recruits from fleeing despite the team being banned from the postseason, and for Pitino to get a recruit the caliber of Jamal Mashburn despite him knowing he couldn't play in the tournament is all just crazy.  And Wojo (this one, not the annoying little rat) either has really old notes or a lot of these guys have incredible memories, because he paints a very vivid and detailed picture.  Really, if you dig on college hoops books - as I do - I put this right up there with Feinstein's best work.

10.  Kansas Jayhawks.  The Jayhawks are interesting because even though I'm not necessarily impressed with them so far this year, they are the only team other than Kentucky who ranks in the top 10 in Ken Pomeroy's both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings.  Maybe I should be, but I always worry about team's that are so reliant on two players (Thomas Robinson and Tyshawn Taylor use a combined nearly 60% of KU's possessions).  I know that those two are worthy of that kind of reliance - both are probably top 10 National Player of the Year candidates right now - but a bad game from either of them probably dooms them. 

11.  Georgetown Hoyas.  Georgetown certainly wasn't supposed to be here after losing three starters from last year's team, but Henry Sims has really stepped up in his senior year (tripled his scoring and doubled or nearly doubled everything else) and they've gotten major contributions from some unheralded freshmen and have ridden their defense to a surprising 18-4 record.  And that's really all I got, because watching a Georgetown game makes me sleepy.

12.  Michigan State Spartans.  I could be wrong, but I think this might be one of Izzo's best teams.  Sure, they've lost a couple road games in the Big Ten but that's to be expected.  Don't forget after they lost to UNC and Duke to open the season they went on a 15-game winning streak which included wins over Florida State and Gonzaga, as well as Indiana and Wisconsin if you're impressed by that sort of thing.  The emergence in the second part of the season of Keith Appling has taken a lot of pressure off Draymond Green who is a lot better when he can concentrate on rebounding and facilitating the offense and let his points come naturally rather than having to carry the full offensive load.  Looking at this group and with Izzo's March history they could be a Final Four team with the right draw.

13.  St. Mary's Gaels.  I didn't even realize St. Mary's was all that good this year, but the whitey whitersons are 11-0 in the WCC (and don't forget, BYU is here now too) and are 6-2 against the RPI Top 100.  And Matthew Dellavedova doesn't just have one of the coolest names and sexiest hair in the NCAA, he's one of the best all-around guards as well.  I really need to catch one of their games this year before the tournament (maybe the Bracket Busters game against Murray State) so I can really evaluate them but it's clear they can light it up, and that always makes 'em dangerous.

14.  San Diego State Aztecs.  Even more surprising than G-Town being ranked highly is SDSU being up here because they lost almost everything from last year's team and it was looking like it'd be another case of a mid-major having everything come together and then crashing down after graduations/early defections, but Jamaal Franklin has gone from bit player to superstar, while Chase Tapley has gone from afterthought to star and SDSU is 6-1 in a tough Mountain West and already has wins over the other two major players in UNLV and New Mexico.  Next week is a monster because they play the Rebels Saturday and New Mexico the following Wednesday so if they handle that it may be time to start looking at them as a legit Final Four contender.

15.  Creighton Blue Jays.  These guys are really annoying because everyone is slobbering all over them, but what I see is a terrible defensive team playing in a way down Missouri Valley whose only significant non-conference win is over the aforementioned SDSU.  They're going to be somewhere in that 4-7 range for a seed and I have a feeling they're going to end up being a pretty trendy Sweet 16 pick (or more).  It could happen, because they do have a player of the year candidate who could carry them in Doug McDermott and they can really shoot the lights out, but if they end up going against a 13-10 seed who can score with them they could be a first round casualty - Iona or Oral Roberts would be a terrible matchup for them. 



So that's part 1.  I was going to do it all at once but then I got about 8 teams deep and I was all like oh god this is a lot of teams.  So I'm cutting her off at 15 for now.  I might do the next 10 (+ some notables who received votes) tomorrow night but I might go out to the bar instead.  Hell, I might be do both because I'm just crazy like that.

Also on the numbers me, Snacks, and Old Man split we had 8-7 for the Super Bowl so if Bradshaw doesn't score and the Giants instead kick a field goal two win 18-17 we would have won BOATLOADS divided by three.  But alas, I sit here.  Still poor.

Friday Stuff

I realize it makes more sense to have this post up Friday morning rather than Friday night because I can't imagine anyone other than the deranged and the incredibly lonely read this blog on the weekend, particularly Super Bowl weekend, but I really didn't feel like writing before now.  I passes several very fun offers of things to do tonight to write this for you, so you better read it.  Also I lied just now.  My Friday plans are pretty much set in stone every week and it's called put the kids to bed, have a drink while watching some stupid tv show, and go to bed early.  I'M A DYNAMO!

First order of business would be a preview for Sunday's game against Nebraska, but I don't really feel like making an entire post about the crap factory that is Tubby Smith's squad.  According to Loretta8 from Sippin' on Purple, whose Northwesterners just beat them by 10, their big men didn't do anything against David freaking Curletti, they have a couple of ok guards who can get hot from three, and they play terrible defense.  Sounds great.  Kenpom.com confirms they aren't a very good defensive team, Bo Spencer is a guy who can get way hot and possible win a game on his own, and even though Jorge Brian Diaz is their center who was supposed to take the leap in his third season he's actually regressed to the point where he's averaging a career low in minutes and only played 18 against Northwestern.

Sounds like a game the Gophers should win, but after that debacle against Iowa I don't see how you can possibly trust this team.  You could just say they're completely terrible, but then again they won at Indiana so you can't just write them off on the road.  The Gophers are officially your crazy cousin who lives in New York and once showed up at Thanksgiving in a Misfits t-shirt with those weird plug things in her ears and pink hair and a boyfriend with a face tattoo with news she dropped out of college to play the harmonica for an underground thrash band, but then showed up for Christmas in a prim and proper button up pink sweater driving a Honda Civic and announced she had just enrolled at Moody Bible College and then stayed up all night playing cribbage with your mom and drinking green tea.  I have no idea what to expect.  Still, Wikipedia tells me Nebraska is a terrible program and I can't quite bring myself to quit on this season even though Tubby probably has.  Gophers 65, Huskers 61.

-  I suppose the other big news is that there's the Super Bowl this weekend and everybody keeps bugging me to know my pick.  Well fine, my bet to win the Super Bowl at TopBet is the Giants, although the smart money is on Giants +3.  New York's offense isn't that much worse than New England's, but their defense is infinitely better.  Of course, I'm pretty sure my opinion on this is not to be trusted because the only thing I hate more than Boston/New England fans are people who wear stupid hats and listen to Coldplay.  Honestly if somebody told me that I could choose who wins this Super Bowl and if I choose New England all hunger and poverty in the world would be wiped out I'd need like 48 hours to decide.  So yes, my opinion is slightly skewed but I think it's a legit thought.

Of course, on the other side is that everyone, and I mean everyone, loves the Giants +3 and usually when something like that happens you're wrong because people are idiots.  And they have Gronkowski, who is probably not even hurt and even if he is like it will matter.  They'll give him some of that Bud Kilmer magic juice and he'll rack up 3 TDs in the first half.  Gronky for MVP.  You heard it hear first.

Gophers vs. Iowa: Live Blog

Am I blogging the Gopher/Hawkeye game?  Yes.  Why, you ask?  Not very sure.  I think the best reason is that, on the very good chance that things go south, this and future generations can study what I type and come to conclusions about what happens to a rational man's brain when his favorite sports' team, a team made of 18-22 year old kids in this case, fails in a spectacular fashion after building said man's hopes up.  A case study on a meltdown.  Some people leave their bodies to science and/or donate their organs, I do this.  Because, let's face it, I don't science would much want my body (just like my wife, hey-oh!).

20:00 - I wrote a short preview tonight because the way to win this game is simple - score points.  Attack the zone, be aggressive in transition and in the half-court, and score points.  Iowa is terrible defensively so all you have to do is go after them and score points.  Their offense can be scary but it's not good enough to outscore you if you play well.  Remember, it was just 64-62 when Iowa won in the Barn - Gophers need more points than that.

19:59 - Iowa starts in man, which is a good call by McCaffrey (the opposite of coming to Iowa in the first place) because you know the Gophers practiced against it over and over all week, so don't give them that zone right away, save it for when/if you need it.  Man-to-man leads to an easy steal and a lay-up anyway, so it's 2-0 Iowa and Julian Welch now bricks a long jumper.  Great.

18:24 - For the record, Dawger thinks Welch is/will be one of the best Gopher PGs ever, so his mistakes aren't really his fault.

18:05 - Two transition opportunities for Iowa and twice the Gophers haven't gotten back quickly.  They're lucky it's only 2-0.  I'm not a fan of Tubby's line change substitution patterns, but if you're ever going to do it that would have been the right time.

17:36 - Ralph 16-footer to tie it up.  He could still end up the best center in gopher history, you just gotta believe.

16:50 - I bet Roy Marble is way prouder of his kid than Ralph Sampson is of his.  Don't you picture the older Ralph just mentally abusing Ralph III?  Like in high school Ralph III would be like, hey dad (who was probably never at the games) I had a triple-double last night and Ralph II would be all like, "triple-double?  I used to get quadruple doubles in high school?  Why were you slacking off?  Now go mow the lawn."

16:01 - Another Welch turnover and he's out for Maverick instead of Andre Westbrook for some reason.  I don't get this substitution.  Also I want to clarify that I call Dre Hollins Andre Westbrook because he reminds me of Russell, not Lawrence.  Let's not make that mistake.

15:09 - Well say this for Ralph, he's being aggressive.  He's being terrible, but he's being aggressive.   7-2 Iowa at the first break as the Gophers look sloppier than Lindsay Lohan (that's not dated yet, right?)

14:24 - Out of the break Iowa goes to a half-court trap which scares Oto half to death so he just gives them the ball so they can score.  9-2 Iowa.  It's over.

13:59 - Ahanmisi fouled on a 3-pointer.  1-3 on the FTs.  What a dickwagon.

13:36 - Another Gopher turnover.  Every time I watch this team play it makes me wish turnovers were the goal of the game.  :championship:

12:33 - At what point does the Gophers' failure to get back to stop the Hawkeyes in transition stop being about lazy players and start becoming about the coach?  I know he can't exactly run out there yet - he's not Pete Rose - but at some point it has to be the prep work, no?

11:34 - Eight and a half minutes, 1-8 shooting, 3 points, 8 turnovers.  13-3 Iowa.  This is like Marcellus Wallace and Zed so far.

11:16 - Turnover against the press.  I wish I was kidding.  The good news is Iowa doesn't look like they have their world-beater pants on (they would probably be black Zubaz with like, corn on 'em) so I still think the Gophers can get back into this, as long as they play the rest of the game the exact opposite of how they have been playing.

9:56 - Two consecutive possessions with a shot by the Gophers, new record.  They made one, now 15-5.  Now 17-5.

9:30 - Ralphie with the hammer dunk and the foul.  Seriously might be the most aggressive Sampson has been all year.  I think he's got seven of the team's 8 points right now and has missed around 3 shots too.  I like seeing him go after it, reminds me of what I saw way back when before I was stabbed in the nuts.

8:45 - Iowa is just awful.  Seriously terrible.  There is zero reason for the Gophers to lose this game.  None.  They've played one of the worst games in basketball history - the hoops equivalent of 41-donut, if you will - so far and yet are only down 18-11 after Welch's 3-point play. 

7:49 - Iowa misses, Austy Hollins 3-ball.  18-14, and some dumb white guy just had his lay-up swatted by Sampson.  On the ensuing possession Hollins misses a WIDE OPEN three, Rodney tips the board out and it leads to an Iowa lay-up on the break.  That's a pretty rough swing, momentumally.

6:16 - 20-17 Iowa and here comes the zone.  This is going to decide the game right here I type as Welch throws the ball right out of the back of the end zone.

5:40 - I'm not even sure Iowa has a rebound yet.  Jesus these guys really fucking suck.  How the hell do they have those semi-impressive wins they have?  I'm pretty sure Penn State would beat these guys nine out of every 10 games.

4:25 - Despite all that, after a missed open three and a missed lay-up on the follow, the Gophers are still down to these assholes 20-19.  The points are just like, right there for the taking.  I've threatened this before, but if they don't win this game I'm done with this team.  This is like watching a bad high school team and Matt Gatens just hit nothing but backboard on a wide open three-pointer.  How can the Gophers possibly be losing?  Oh.  Right.  They're the Gophers.

2:32 - So I've been watching a lot of the old Scooby-Doo's with Wonderbaby^TM these days, and holy crap was that show racist.  Well racist isn't really the proper term because it's just the way the world was back then, I guess stereotypical is the right word.  Tonight's episode took place in China Town and 80% of the chinese characters were basically Hong Kong Phooey and at one point Shaggy impersonated a Chinese dude and it included slits for eyes, buck teeth, and Ls and Rs pronounced as Ws.  I'm not saying it wasn't hilarious, I'm just saying it was weird to see not only on TV but on a kids' show.  And the Gophers are up 27-24 after a couple made threes.

0:00 - 27-24 is your halftime score.  And this is why the preview I wrote for this game was so short and half-assed - Iowa completely sucks balls.  Like, they're the suckiest bunch of sucks who ever sucked.  There's no fucking secret formula to winning this one, just don't play like assholes and the Gophers should walk.  Well they played like assholes for most of the first half and Iowa was so bad that was completely wiped out by a good, solid four minutes of ball.  So just do that the second half.  Don't come out with this stupid shit where you look lost and confused and suck.  Just attack Iowa and they'll crumble like the French - after all, Napoleon was defeated in Iowa.

Napoleon was finally defeated at Waterloo.  Look it up, noob.

19:31 - Iowa with an offensive board off a missed free throw.  Wonderful.  Great way to start the half.

19:02 - Nice hooker by Ralph.  Suck it, Ralph's dad.  Mow your own damn lawn.

18:50 -  Iowa with a terrible full-court press leads to a Sampson dunk.  31-28 Gophers. 

18:34 -  Iowa has to be the worst team in the country.  Bryce Cartwright spins, completely out of control but puts up a terrible jump shot any way and then some big dumb white just crashes over the back of Joe Coleman as if he doesn't really even understand the rules and just thinks if you can get the ball, get it.  Like letting some kind of animal loose.

18:10 -  Iowa just missed a lay-up on a 2-on-1, but because the Gophers still aren't hustling back they got the o-board and another crack at a lay-up.  Which they missed, leading to a transition 3-pointer for Austin Hollins.

17:02 - Six fouls on the Gophers already.  Iowa seems to employing the "fat kid in sixth grade who put his head down and dribbled at the rim" offense, and the Gophers are obliging by fouling them.  Of course, Iowa is fucking terrible so Basabe just missed both free throws.

16:30 - It's officialy, Austin Hollins can't shoot.  He's like 2-5 on threes which sounds good but if you'd seen any of them he's been completely and totally wide open on all of them.  I mean like, Magic Johnson just got AIDS but is playing in the all-star game and nobody wants to guard him open.

15:45 -  You're never going to believe this, but the Gophers just had another unforced turnover which led to a Matt Gatens dunk and it's now 36-33 Gophers.  In a related story, Matt Gatens can dunk.

15:09 - Iowa crowd all fired up but an Armelin three shuts 'em up.  Suck on that, corn boys.  Go home and fix one of the four cars sitting on your lawn and watch Dukes of Hazzard while drinking Schlitz.  That actually describes all of my uncles on my mom's side, who grew up on a farm, when I was growing up, so I know what I'm talking about here.

14:30 - So who's excited for three more years of Aaron White after this?  I can't decide what hurts my eyes more, his hair or his blindingly white skin.  I know white guys always stand out on the court (even on Iowa) but this is like somebody suited up Powder.  Although I guess that would be pretty helpful having Powder on your team because he could like, move the ball with is mind and shit.  Way better than having that ball-hogging Teen Wolf.

12:49 - Also now that I wrote Teen Wolf  I'm reminded I once compared Evan Turner to a werewolf on this blog, but I'll be damned if I can remember why.

12:29 - Rodney misses the jumper, the rebound goes through to Iowa dudes to the Gophers again, ball goes to Westbrook who takes it at Oglesby and crosses him over to where he has about 6 feet of room to knock down the 14-footer (and does).  45-35.  Yes, 35.  Jesus these guys suck. 

11:35 - Iowa brings out the 3/4 court trap again and the Gophers make two horrible and wild passes.  Somehow Iowa tracks down neither of them.

10:54 - Another foul on the perimeter, Iowa goes to the line again.  That's four straight Iowa points and they're all at the line.  I can't believe the Gophers are still in danger of losing.

10:24 - The cure for a struggling offense?  Elliott Elliason 8-foot jumpers.  I'm just kidding.  He completely bricked it and then scores to cut it to 4 because their slow white guy is still quicker than Elliason.

9:20 - Let's play guess the Gophers offense out of a timeout:  Did they A. Run a well-designed play that led to a good shot, or B.  Didn't even have a play because Tubby neglected to call one and passed the ball around the perimeter until there was little left on the shot clock forcing Coleman to try a desperation shot that didn't hit the rim leading to a shot clock violation?  If you chose A you are a liar.

8:56 - Remember the Joe Coleman from earlier in the year who was a terrible off the ball defender?  He's back, Gatens 3 makes it 45-44 Gophers as Joe completely loses him on a fake cut.

8:30 - Welch answers!!!  Probably one of the best point guards in Gophers history.

7:40 - Sampson's shot is slow, hesitant, and blocked and that reminds me that he's done nothing this half at all.  Just like a woman, you start praising her and talking about how much you like her and she turns her back on you and starts banging the bartender at the bowling alley.

6:23 - If a tip counts as an o-board that's two offensive rebounds on one possession for Sampson leading to two made free throws for Ralph.  I take it back.  I take it all back.  I still love this guy and I don't care who knows it except probably he shouldn't know because of the whole bartender thing.

5:27 - It's a 50-49 game and Rodney Williams misses two free throws.  God this team is just retarded.

5:12 - Basabe makes two (SEE HOW FUCKING EASY THAT IS YOU DICKHEADS) and Iowa now leads 51-50. 

4:45 - Welch with another huge three.  Nobody hits more clutch shots on this team than Welch other than if it's to win or ice the game, but from about 8 minutes left to 2 minutes left he's just nails.

3:58 - Hollins hits a three somehow and Gophers lead 56-53.  Keep up the inside-outside offense and things should be good, until Iowa starts fouling and the Gophers miss every free throw and let Iowa win.  You know damn well it's coming.

3:43 - Powder pushes Oto down to the ground (probably with his mind) on a Gatens missed free throw.  Big spot for Oto since it's 1-and-1.  He missed.  Board to Elliason.  Leads to a three-pointer by Oto and a 59-54 Gopher lead.  What a weird possession in a really weird game.  Gophers are 10-16 from three, despite being a terrible shooting team and the only thing Iowa does fairly well defensively is defend the three.  Just goes to show you that stats don't matter, nerd.  Little computer men and numbers you feed into your calculator don't play basketball, people play basketball and heart and grit and hustle matter.

2:26 - By the way I got to do a fancy work dinner earlier this week.  We went to Seven and went with the Spicy Salmon Roll and Calamri for appetizers and then grilled asparagus, truffle mac-and-cheese, and roasted corn for our sides.  I went with the Picanha steak for my entree, which is a Brazillian cut of sirloin using the sirloin cap and served with a garlic oil infusion that is to die for.  I've only had Picanha before at Fogo de Chao and it was easily my favorite cut, so to get it for an entree was an awesome treat.  Seriously, if you can get to Seven and don't order this you are an asshole.

1:55 - Hollins (the bad one) misses another three, leading to a monster dunk right in Ralph's effeminate, tentative face to tie the game at 59.  This blows ass.

1:09 - Gophers go to Sampson who is doubled and then turns it over leading to a fast break for Iowa where Welch fouls Cartwright.  He makes both.  Iowa up 2.  I really wish I grew up something gay like dancing or hunting so I wouldn't even care about sports.  Maybe snowmobiling.  That seems pretty dumb.

0:42 - Do they ever even fucking run a god damn play?  Ever?  Nobody had a god damn clue what to do on that possession!  Can anyone explain to me what exactly it is that Tubby does out there because he sure as fuck doesn't coach or recruit.  He doesn't do shit.  Honest to jesus baby santa christ he's fucking worthless. 

0:00 - ballgame.  Fuck you Tubby.

0:00 - Let's watch that possession again.  Remember, Gophers are down two here, this is a huge possession and basically the game. 

Shotclock time:

35 - ball into Welch, dribbles across half-court.

27 - to Hollins in the middle of the court, 35 feet from the rim.

25 - swing to Coleman on the wing, still 35 feet from the rim.

22 - Coleman dribbles to mid-court swings it back to Hollins on the left now 30 feet from the rim.

19 - Over to the right side to Coleman, still 30 feet from the rim.  Coleman clearly looks confused.

17 - To Welch in the center, 26 feet from the rim

14 - Welch drives and puts up a contested, double-teamed, ill-advised 18 footer that misses and that's the game.

Guess how many timeouts they had?  Two.  Look I am all for letting your players play, but you've seen this group before and I don't think they qualify for Mensa even if you combined all their basketball IQs.  Fine, give 'em a chance to look competent if you really want to, but when they spend 21 seconds outside of 26 feet from the rim it's time to call a timeout.  This is just an embarrassment.  I can no longer think of a single reason to believe in Tubby Smith as the coach.  He's terrible and he only tries about once every three games.  He was invisible tonight.  Congrats on your National Championship with Kentucky, I'm glad Rick Pitino was such a good recruiter.  What a fucking joke.  Officially an Iowa State fan now.

Game Preview: Gophers vs. Iowa

I assume at this point I don't need to tell you that this is pretty close to a must win game for the Gophers in order to avoid another bad loss on the ole NCAA Tournament resume (Iowa RPI is 121).  I also shouldn't need to tell you that despite being a bad team Iowa is dangerous - along with their win at The Barn they also won at Wisconsin and beat Michigan at home, three very good wins.  Of course for a dangerous team they are just as likely to completely lay an egg and are currently on a three-game losing skid that includes a home loss to Nebraska and allowing Indiana to break 100 on them.  In short, you really have no idea what you're going to get with this year's edition of Iowa basketball.

Well actually you know you're going to get a really terrible defensive team that plays at a high tempo so the opportunity will be there for the Gophers to score a lot of points.  One of the only things Iowa does defensively at even a mediocre level is defend the three-point shot, and the Gophers don't rely much on it so who really cares.  The only real concern is when Iowa switches to that aggressive 1-3-1 (and they will because it basically swung the game in Minneapolis) will the Gophers be able to handle it?  They shredded Northwestern's similar zone by attacking the gaps and getting inside the perimeter, and if they do that same thing against the Hawkeyes they'll score a ton of points.  I fear they turn the ball over like crazy, because that's another trait of this team.

That's it.  That's the whole thing, the whole preview.  If the Gophers play good, smart offense, make the right decisions, move the ball, and attack the zone they'll probably end up scoring 90+ points and Iowa's offense isn't good enough to score any where near that many points against a Gopher team that's pretty good defensively.  The tops Iowa can probably score here is in the low 70.  Which means if the Gophers play like a bunch of scared little bunny rabbits against the zone they probably lose 72-65 or something.  I choose to believe in this team for some reason.  I probably should write a bunch more but I just got my ass kicked gambling-wise for like the 15th night in a row so I don't really feel like it.

Gophers 83, Iowa 70.

Week in Review - 1/30/2012

 So I'm going no introduction.  Suck it.

WHO WAS AWESOME


1.  Gopher Basketball.  The basketball gods giveth, and they taketh away but in this case in the reverse order of that.  The Gophers lost a game they probably should have won when the played the Illini in Champaign and then made up for it by winning on Saturday when they should have lost, and would have if Meyers Leonard had just backed out of the way.  In any case, the Gophers are now 4-5 in conference play and would probably sneak into the tournament if it started today, which means they're in good position assuming they don't screw things up, making this week a monster.  They head to Iowa and then to Nebraska, two winnable road games that are more than just winnable, they're must wins.  I've been hurt too many times by Gopher teams and women to be fooled again, which is why I'm not buying into this team until after this week.  If they can win two road games they need to I'll go ahead and buy in.  Until then consider me cautiously optimistic.

Two players who deserve extra praise following the Illinois win are Chip Armelin and Andre Hollins or Andre Westbrook as he is known when I talk.  Armelin was the hero of the first half and basically the reason the Gophers went into half-time with a lead thanks to his energy, fearlessness, an accurate jumper, and a couple of great passes including a Magic-esque fake behind the back drop-off on a fastbreak.  Armelin was awesome.

But Andre Hollins might have been even better in the second half and overtime.  The Gophers had a pretty easy time of it in overtime and Andre Hollins was the biggest reason, and seriously how much does he remind you of Russell Westbrook?  I can't be the only one who sees this.  Not a great shooter but has the ability to get hot, with the strongest part of his game his ability to get to the rim, which is a strength because he's willing to take it in there against anybody.  I suppose that could describe Joe Coleman as well, but Hollins kind of looks like Westbrook too.  I don't know, but with Hollins and Coleman maybe this team has a future after all.  Stay tuned.


2.  Kevin Love.  I figured he'd sign, I guessed he'd sign, but until it happens you can't ever relax, especially in a place that has seen all non-Twin beloved figures bolt and/or force their way out at some point, but now Love is ours.  For at least three years, and I think that's the best part of this deal for both sides.  Love is a smart dude who knows what he's doing, which is why it wasn't surprising when I read an article pre-lockout about him and how he and his agent were putting 90% of his income or something into an account not to be touched and he was just living off of 10%, which is really what everybody in pro sports should do but almost nobody does.  He continued his smart behavior by going with the 3-year opt out clause in his deal, which basically says, "Yes, I want to play here and build a winner but if that's not happening and the team isn't doing what it's supposed to I want out" which, again is a smart way to go about things.  Plus, now the Wolves absolutely have to work to build a team around him or he can just take off.  Three more years of Love + Rubio + Williams.  How good can they be?  I have no clue yet, but I am damn glad we will get to find out.

3.  Detroit Tigers.  Well shit.  Just when you think the Twins have a chance to be relevant (V-Martinez out for the year, White Sox trading everything away) the Tigers go and sign Prince Fielder.  Part of me wants to point out that giving a 9-year contract to a guy who is in the kind of shape Fielder's in and who only has one real skill (hitting) who is 29 years old probably means the last couple of years of that contract, at a minimum, are going to be a burden.  But I'm also smart enough to recognize that the part of me that wants to point that out is really nothing more than just a jealous asshole because this freaking sucks.  Fielder and Cabrera give the Tigers two of what, the five best hitters in the game?  And Avila and Peralta can hammer the ball as well.  If Delmon Young's figured out or if Brennan Boesch or Austin Jackson ever do that lineup is going to be sick, as if it isn't already.  And although there's plenty of questions behind Verlander, Fister-Scherzer-Porcello has a chance to be pretty solid.  Detroit's not a runaway favorite in the Central or anything, but they're clearly a favorite.  Just a great move that says, "F money, we're going for it" and the kind of thing the Twins would never, ever do in a million years.  Is the Chili Davis signing the biggest FA move of our lifetime?  Am I forgetting anything?  I'm moving to Detroit.

Just kidding.  I don't want to get shot.  Unless I do it myself after the Gophers lose to both Iowa and Nebraska.


4.  Lou Diamond Phillips.  I'm guessing most people don't watch Celebrity Cook-Off but for me if it's a cooking competition I'm pretty much watching no matter what, and LDP beat out Coolio to take this one down, although both of them would have been worthy champions.  Labamba was more refined, while Coolio had his own ideas and his own recipes which apparently worked well (mayo on cheesy bread?) but these two were definitely the two best cooks who took it seriously.  Joey Fatone can knock out Italian food but has zero range and zero creative skill, and there wasn't another cook besides those three who seemed worthwhile (Aaron Carter was one and his big dish was a macaroni salad lolololololol).  So nice work Lou for a good season where I actually learned stuff.  I look forward to not hearing your name again for 10 years or so until you resurface playing an Indian Chief is some sort of fancy movie.  Probably Sitting Bull or some shit.  With Ashton Kutcher as Custer.

5.  Iowa State Cyclones.  One of the most enjoyable basketball experiences I've ever had was going down to Ames for the first time (Snacks is a graduate and I was visiting him) and going to Hilton Coliseum and watching a good but not great Cyclones team take down a Kansas team that I think was ranked #1 going into the game, including seeing Minnesota's own Jake Sullivan pull up from 35-feet on a 3-on-2 fast break and nail a 3 (no joke, that was probably the coolest thing I've ever seen on a basketball court in person).  This weekend the Cyclones did it again, knocking off the Jayhawks 72-64, once again behind a native Minnesotan.  This time it wasn't a under-recruited, short little whiteboy with a deadly jumper who is in range from anywhere on the court, but a tatted up, nationally recognized top recruit with some mental problems and the kind of well-rounded game where he leads the team in points, rebounds, assists, blocks, and is 0.2 behind in steals.  Seriously I don't know if you've seen him yet this year but Royce White is really, really, really good.  Really good.  Put him on this Gopher team and they're an automatic NCAA team.  Put him and Mbakwe on this team and you're talk Sweet 16 team with upside.

God dammit.


WHO SUCKED

1.  Ralph Sampson.  It's official, the Gophers are now actively winning games in spite of Sampson.   5 points and 5 fouls with only three rebounds and couldn't be bothered to block a shot.  Not only was he crappy in measurable things, but he just got crushed by Meyers Leonard who had at least two and maybe three offensive boards on missed Illinois free throws that he got by just leaning on Ralph and moving him too far under the rim to do anything about it.  And Sampson just let it happen again and again.  Several times Sampson didn't even look interested, like the one time I specifically watched him and when Illinois took a jump shot he just stood there while Leonard went right around him and grabbed the o-board.  The guy had six offensive rebounds for the game and I'm fairly certain all six came against Sampson.  In a career full of disappointing games and poor effort, this one really took the cake.  Elliason is a better option at this point.  You may consider my heart-broken.  Just like when Emma Stone dyed her hair blonde.  Why Emma?  Why?

2.  San Diego State.  The funny thing, and I guess it's not really funny but whatever shut up, is that I actually had SDSU teed up as WHO WAS AWESOME after they went into Wyoming and rolled an underrated Cowboy team that was starting to look sleeperiffic.  I know beating Wyoming, even in Laramie, isn't usually impressive but trust me that was a really good win, not to mention SDSU was 18-2 in a year when they had lost four starters and the core of a sweet 16 team and weren't supposed to add up to much.  Probably the biggest surprise (pleasant surprise) of the year.  And then they roll into Fort Collins and just get smoked by the Colorado State and getting out-played in every way possible.  Big deal?  No, not really because the Aztecs are basically in the tournament no matter what, especially because collapse is nearly impossible since the Mountain West is meh this year, but just a hugely disappointing loss.  Why I care so much, I couldn't begin to tell you.

3.  Bruce Weber.  I have no idea how this guy still has a job.  He's one of the worst game coaches this side of Rick Barnes, and nobody does less with more than Weber.  When is the last time he actually exceeded expectations?  I know he did well at Southern Illinois (recruiting better than the rest of the conference, naturally, since that's the one thing he excels at) and he had a good start at Illinois with Self's players including that Final Four, but since then they've been garbage, right?  I mean I know they've made the NCAA Tournament like 4 of the 6 years since then and as Gopher fans we'd kill for that level of success, but based on the recruits he's bringing in that's pathetic, especially since they've only won two tournament games in that span.  I guess that's what happens when you hitch your wagon to fat non-point guard with no real point guard skills Demetri McCamey for four years and don't bother to, you know, recruit another point guard for four freaking years.  See you probably thought I wouldn't ever be able to work in another dig at McCamey, but then BAM! there we are.  Did you know he did 0 bench reps at the college hoops draft combine.  Zero.  Should have made it a donut eating contest.


4.  Central Michigan Chippewas.  Not that this week at 0-2 was particularly bad for Central Michigan because they plain old suck at 7-13 and have lost five straight, but it's time to call attention this because I thought they were supposed start getting more gooder.  Remember two years ago when Trey Ziegler was the #28 recruit in the country and had offers from Arizona, Duke, Michigan State, Michigan, and UCLA amongst others?  And then remember how he passed up all those opportunities in order to play for his dad at CMU?  Yeah, apparently it didn't matter because 10 total games last year and might be worse this year.  Ziegler leads the team in scoring, rebounding, and assists for the second straight year, but who cares because they're terrible.  It's basically the same story from the same year as Ray McCallum who ended up going to Detroit to play for daddy, but at least they're showing some signs of improvement - this Ziegler thing is a nightmare.

5.  Phil Mickelson.  Lefty is a bonafide stud when it comes to Torrey Pines.  He's won there three times in his career, he has 8 top-fives including a solo second here last year.  He's played at Torrey Pines 22 times on the PGA Tour, grew up playing on this course, lives like 5 minutes away, and hasn't missed a cut there in 10 years.  So how'd he do this weekend at the Farmers Insurance Open?  Natually he shot a +5 on Thursday, the day when over 2/3rds of the field went under par, and then missed the cut.  What an asshole.


Also I totally missed this which is why it's just getting mentioned here, but apparently Kyle Stanley didn't win the golf tournament today, despite having a 3-shot lead going into the last hole.  I was watching the end, but after he laid up on his second shot on the par-5 eighteenth hole to about 75 yards I figured it was over and clicked off.  According the words that other people typed, Stanley spun his approach shot right off the green, then on his second try put it 45 feet away and 3-putted (!!!) from there to end up going to a playoff with Brandt Snedeker who won after Stanley missed a five-foot par putt on the second playoff whole.  Jesus.  I'm damn glad I flipped the channel because if I had watched that I would have alternated laughing and feeling depressed to the point where I'd probably become the Joker.  By the way, did you know in the comic books there's a whole subplot where Joker rapes Commissioner Gordon's daughter?  Seriously, comic books are way fucked up.  I'm scared of comic book fans, for realsies.

Also I really should have mentioned the Magic as a team who sucked.  They're in the dumpster at this point.  Zero chance Howard finishes out the year there.  Howard for Beasley, Webster, Williams, and Wes Johnson works under the cap.  Just sayin'.

Game Preview: Minnesota vs. Illinois

This afternoon for lunch we went to this really cool authentic Mexican deli-type place where you could order our tacos or burritos or whatever you wanted with any one of a whole bunch of different meat choices, and I noticed that among those choices were beef tripe, beef tongue, pork stomach, and beef head.  Now, I really like trying new foods - not that long ago I had wild boar with escargot as an appetizer - and usually if there's a new type of meat (to me) on the menu I'll give it a shot.  I've never had anything like those, and I figured I could handle tongue because I know a lot of people consider tongue to be quite tasty, so that's what I was going to have.  Then I got to the counter and I ordered the adobo carnitas.  I'm such a sissy.

I opened with that because I have very little reaction to the loss at Michigan State because as I said in my preview post I didn't really care because I expected them to lose and the game essentially meant nothing as far as their NCAA Tournament hopes since I knew there was no chance they could pull an upset.  And also because I missed 90% of the game running around getting my car stuff figured out and then a torturous experience picking up dinner for the family at Zantigo that took nearly 40 minutes somehow.  But now the real season begins.  Now it's do or die time, starting with Saturday against Illinois.

Illinois is on a two-game losing skid after dropping a home game to Wisconsin and a roadie at Penn State, but are still in pretty good shape at 15-5 and 4-3 in conference thanks to big wins over Ohio State and Gonzaga and only the Penn State loss sitting in the "bad loss" column, even if it is understandable to lose a road conference game.  They certainly are ahead of the Gophers in the conference pecking order, but they may need this game as badly as Minnesota does because their next game is against Michigan State, and if they don't beat the Gophers they may be looking at a 4-game losing streak and sub-500 league record.

And make no mistake, Illinois can absolutely win this game.  If the Gophers' home losses to Iowa and Purdue don't tell you they can lose at any time, Illinois's wins at Maryland and Northwestern and neutral site victory of Richmond let you know the Illini don't shrivel up and die on the road.  Both teams are extremely evenly matched which you'd realize if you subscribed to kenpom.com and looked them up, so this one is going to come down to execution and mistakes, but if you wanted to take one thing to look at and concentrate on to decide how this game was going to go down, I'd point you towards the Illini's three-point shooting.  Actually the #1 deciding factor will probably be if Tubby decides to give a crap about this game or not, but the 3-point shooting thing is definitely #2.

The Gophers' issues with defending the three under Tubby Smith are as well known as they are perplexing, but as a refresher they allow opponents to shoot 35.8% from three, which ranks 218th in the nation - not good.  Normally I would say that's ok against Illinois because they're not a particularly good shooting team, hitting just 32.9% on the year (ranks #222) and no real great shooters, but teams continually get more of their points from three against the Gophers than they normally would, simply because they're open more often.

Plus, Illinois does have a tendency to fall in love with the shot and they have just enough mediocre, high-volume shooters that they have a high likelihood of somebody getting hot, and sometimes thats all you need.  Like in the Illini's win over Ohio State when Brandon Paul completely lost his mind and hit 8-10 from three (he's a 35% shooter this year and that includes that game) en route to 43 points and basically won that game for them.  D.J. Richardson was 4-7 in their win over Gonzaga.  Sam Maniscalco was 5-8 in their win over Maryland.  And most of their losses have come when they shoot too many threes and nobody makes them: 7-25 vs. UNLV, 4-16 vs. Missouri, 5-21 vs. Purdue, 7-22 vs. Penn State, and 3-12 vs. Wisconsin.

So that's your real key here.  Hope they shoot a lot of threes (given the Gophers' defense this is likely), miss a lot (less likely), and hope nobody gets hot (even less likely).  I have, of course, not mentioned the Illini's best player, center Meyers Leonard, but that's because he's gonna do what he does.  He's gonna go for 12-20 points and 6-10 rebounds and that's that.  I also expect that, because he and Ralph are similar, finesse type players who both lack the ability to just take the other out of the game, those two will cancel each other out like last time.

Other than the 3-point thing the other big thing the Gophers need to do is force turnovers.  Illinois still struggles with point guard (as they have since Chester Frazier graduated) and rely on an undersized shooting guard (Maniscalo) , a small forward (Paul), and a freshman (Tracy Abrams) to handle most of their ball-handling.  Abrams playing time has really increased since conference play started and I'd assume he'll get most of the ball work (he he) on Saturday, but he can be a turnover machine at times and struggled against the Gophers in Champaign (5 TOs). 

Pressure on the ball-handlers and shutting down the 3-pointer are your keys to the game.  If they can continue with the attacking, aggressive, get-in-the-lane offense they've showcased the last 3 games they'll be able to score against Illinois, but if they let the Illini get off from 3 and play that shitty stand around crapfense they did against Iowa and Purdue Illinois will win this game.  As Fred Durst once said, you gotta have faith.

Minnesota 62, Illinois 56.