Whew. Were you like me and had your heart drop when Florida popped up on the screen? Terrifying, but ultimately the committee made the right choices and the Gophers were rewarded for an incredible last week of ball. I like the matchup quite a bit, too. Not necessarily because I think the Gophers will have an easy time with Xavier or anything, but mainly because I think that region is pretty weak. If they can get by the Musketeers, they get the weakest three seed in the second round. They also caught a pretty big break by playing in Milwaukee, where they should have a sizable advantage in fans.
One thing is for sure, it's exciting, and the season no longer goes down as a failure. I'll be back with a true preview before I head out to Chicago with Snacks and Snake, but for now I'm predicting a Gopher win.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Colt Iverson. How did this happen? And I'm not even talking numbers, although basically scoring double his season average in every game is impressive, but his game was completely unrecognizable and I mean that in a good way. His moves were suddenly polished, and he had a lot of them. He now suddenly has a drop step. He's using shot fakes beautifully and looks like Kevin McHale down there. He can score with either hand. I have no idea what is going on here. I thought his upside was going to be like a Greg Ostertag rebounder/enforcer type who is most valuable for setting picks and his five fouls per game, but suddenly things have gotten really interesting. If this is for real, the Gophers are suddenly a dangerous team. Please let this be for real - like the Loch Ness Monster - and not some kind of false production - like the Moon Landing.
2. San Diego State. If you're on the bubble going into your conference tournament there is one surefire way to make sure you get a bid - win the whole thing, and that's what the Aztecs did, winning the MWC tournament, including wins over UNLV and New Mexico. SDSU is a dangerous team, and they went 2-1 against New Mexico this year with the loss being by just two points. Drawing Tennessee is always a mystery since they are the kind of team who could either flame out early or go on a deep run, but I'm calling an Aztec upset in the first round.
3. Duke. It's always tough to praise Duke, but they did what a lot of other regular season conference champions couldn't manage and they went out and won their conference tournament. They got lucky a bit in that Maryland got knocked out early by Georgia Tech, but winning the ACC is still winning the ACC. As a bonus, they picked up the fourth #1 seed and were somehow placed in the easiest region in the history of college basketball. But, since they're Duke, I'm sure they'll still screw it up somehow.
4. Ohio. Every year some middling team from a smaller conference gets hot and makes a run, winning their conference tournament and setting themselves up to get their doors blown off in the first round. This year, that honor goes to the Ohio Bobcats for winning the MAC, with Georgetown being the doors-blow-offer. Kent State or Akron would have been a dangerous foe, but they couldn't get it done so now we're saddled with the crappy Bobcats. And how tough is that region? The top five seeds are all legit Final Four contenders, including probably the best #1 and best #2. It should end up playing pretty close to form as I only see one real first round upset possibility, but whoever ends up coming out of there is really going to have to earn it.
5. Second-Tier basketball tournaments. I know nobody really gives a crap about the NIT, CBI, or CIT because the only thing that matters is the NCAA Tournament, and I agree with a lot of that, but I also really like the second-tier tournaments. There's some intrigue with these. Illinois and Dayton ended up in the same bracket, and that would be a pretty good matchup. Will either UCONN or North Carolina put their talent together finally and play well, or have they completely given up for the year? And if nothing else, be thankful they exist so there's some college ball to watch/wager on all week long.
WHO SUCKED
1. Conference USA. It looked like this might be a break-through year for C-USA with a legitimate chance of them getting four teams in the dance depending on how the conference tourney shook out. It shook alright, with Memphis and UAB both getting dumped by crappy teams in the quarters, ending both team's NCAA dreams and assuring that outside of UTEP, nobody would be getting an at-large bid from the conference. They did manage to get two team's in thanks to Houston's championship win, but the Cougars are crappy and UTEP got a shitty seed, so there's a good chance C-USA goes 0 for the tournament this year.
2. Virginia Tech. This is the team that most people seem to have a problem with being excluded from the tournament, but the Hokies aren't even close to deserving a bid. That 23-8 mark looks nice, but their non-conference Strength of Schedule ranked a ridiculous 344th in the country. Their only non-conference wins over teams that are even remotely not god awful were over Penn State and Georgia, pretty much the defining line before you get to god awful. And as good as a 10-6 conference mark looks, they didn't beat either Duke or Maryland. Combine all that with a first round loss to Miami in the ACC tournament, and there is no way the Hokies deserved a bid. Sorry VT, maybe try to schedule some real teams in the future.
3. Dayton. Well it is now official - this year's trip to Chicago will be a bit hollow, since when we go to the Dayton bar there won't be any Dayton fans there, unless I guess maybe there's an NIT game or something. Considering they were supposed to be at the top of the A-10 and be a sweet-16 type team, this year can't be considered anything other than a disaster. Other than one win over Xavier and an early non-conference victory over Georgia Tech, they couldn't beat anybody, whiffing on games against Villanova, Kansas State, and New Mexico, and they lost plenty of games they couldn't afford to lose. Coming down the stretch they lost games to St. Louis, Richmond, and Duquesne. Losing to Richmond and St. Louis might have been manageable, but the loss to Duquesne was a crusher.
4. Mississippi State. Jarvis Varnado deserves better than the NIT, but for the second straight year MSU didn't do enough to get into the tournament and had to try to win SEC tournament to get in. Last year it worked, this year it came just short. The Bulldogs were damn close though, leading Kentucky by three with 4.9 seconds to go in the game. The Wildcats, however, pulled off the rare intentionally miss a free throw, get the rebound and score to tie the game move and sent it into overtime where they ended up winning and sent MSU to the NIT. Hopefully they can play well and at least make it to Madison Square Garden and send Varnado out in style, a player like that deserves it. I'm really going to miss him.
5. Northwestern. Ouch. From 10-1 media sleeper sensation to earn their first ever NCAA bid all the way to a 7 seed in the NIT (and will play vs. Rhode Island in round 1). I'm not too worried about them though, they'll almost certainly get a bid next year. With Shurna and Thompson both back, Coble returning from injury, and Drew Crawford getting better they have a real chance at an upper-division finish in the conference next year. That sounds weird.
THE GOPHERS MADE THE TOURNAMENT!!!!!
Monday, March 15, 2010
Thursday, March 11, 2010
Calm Down, I'm Here
If you follow this blog, you know I haven't really posted this week save one quick update from California, and if you follow the comments on this blog, you know the natives are getting pretty restless, so here I am. Seriously you guys, I really didn't have the opportunity to write anything. I had no computer the entire time I was out in California, and I didn't get back until last night after 10pm so there wasn't really any chance to get to the writing. But now I'm back, and I'm ready to write some stuff.
- First off, yes, losing Joe Nathan for the year really sucks, but we'll live. And not because he sucks now or something. Everybody needs to calm down about his blown save in the playoffs, and stop talking about how the Twins should have traded him - something I heard noted huge idiot Pat Reusse say on the radio when I was accidentally listening to that channel. He's a fantastic, fantastic closer, and you know exactly what you're getting - 40 or so saves with a 90% conversion rate, an ERA under 2.00, a WHIP under 1.00, and shit ton of strikeouts. He won't easily be replaced, and, actually, is pretty much irreplaceable.
But the good news that even if whatever direction the Twins' decide to go in - naming a replacement or closer by committee - ends up being a disaster, it's only going to cost them about three games. Aaron Gleeman breaks down the math, but the difference between a 90% save rate (Nathan) and an 80% save rate (a horrible closer) is only 5 blown saves over the course of a season, and if the Twins' bullpen ends up being average, it's only 2 extra blown saves.
If I had to make a guess, I'd say the Twins' will spread the save opportunities out between Guerrier, Mijares, and Rauch and they'll do just fine, like an average bullpen. I think that when they flame out, they'll flame out spectacularly and we might end up watching some ugly, ugly ninth innings, but overall this isn't the kind of thing that is going to hurt enough to make the differences between playoffs or second place.
There are plenty of other problems with this team that should take care of that.
- Secondly, you're probably wondering how Carlos Gomez is doing. Well I'll tell you. He's hitting .278/.316/.389 with two doubles, a walk, two Ks, and three steals in 18 at bats. That means he's getting more hits and showing the same amount of gap power while striking out about half as often and he's gotten better at stealing bases. He's also still not walking at all. It's Spring Training and all so that basically means those numbers are meaningless, but I just thought you'd like to know how Captain 5-Tool was doing so far.
- I don't know if I've mentioned this in this space, but you should all know I HATE St. Patrick's Day. I can't stand it. I hate it almost as much as I hate Wisconsin, although this hate has nothing to do with geography - I have no beef with the Irish. I just hate you people who go out and use that day as an excuse to act like total morons. If New Year's Eve is known as amateur night, St. Patrick's should be called I've never ever drank before but I'm going to chain-swallow a bunch of Irish-sounding shots to try to look cool night.
- Oh, you're probably here to read about the Gopher game. I laugh at you. Who cares? It means nothing. Well, not nothing. It does give the team the chance to play a game that might give them a chance to be on the bubble if they win. If that sounded convoluted, well, that's your team's chances to make the NCAA Tournament. A win tomorrow over Sparty at least puts them in the conversation depending on what other teams do. With UAB and Memphis both losing in the C-USA quarters, Arizona State losing early in the Pac, and Wake on a tremendous slide there are spots coming available. Somebody is going to step up and take those spots, why not the Gophers?
I CHOOSE TO BELIEVE
Gophers 70, Michigan State 65.
- First off, yes, losing Joe Nathan for the year really sucks, but we'll live. And not because he sucks now or something. Everybody needs to calm down about his blown save in the playoffs, and stop talking about how the Twins should have traded him - something I heard noted huge idiot Pat Reusse say on the radio when I was accidentally listening to that channel. He's a fantastic, fantastic closer, and you know exactly what you're getting - 40 or so saves with a 90% conversion rate, an ERA under 2.00, a WHIP under 1.00, and shit ton of strikeouts. He won't easily be replaced, and, actually, is pretty much irreplaceable.
But the good news that even if whatever direction the Twins' decide to go in - naming a replacement or closer by committee - ends up being a disaster, it's only going to cost them about three games. Aaron Gleeman breaks down the math, but the difference between a 90% save rate (Nathan) and an 80% save rate (a horrible closer) is only 5 blown saves over the course of a season, and if the Twins' bullpen ends up being average, it's only 2 extra blown saves.
If I had to make a guess, I'd say the Twins' will spread the save opportunities out between Guerrier, Mijares, and Rauch and they'll do just fine, like an average bullpen. I think that when they flame out, they'll flame out spectacularly and we might end up watching some ugly, ugly ninth innings, but overall this isn't the kind of thing that is going to hurt enough to make the differences between playoffs or second place.
There are plenty of other problems with this team that should take care of that.
- Secondly, you're probably wondering how Carlos Gomez is doing. Well I'll tell you. He's hitting .278/.316/.389 with two doubles, a walk, two Ks, and three steals in 18 at bats. That means he's getting more hits and showing the same amount of gap power while striking out about half as often and he's gotten better at stealing bases. He's also still not walking at all. It's Spring Training and all so that basically means those numbers are meaningless, but I just thought you'd like to know how Captain 5-Tool was doing so far.
- I don't know if I've mentioned this in this space, but you should all know I HATE St. Patrick's Day. I can't stand it. I hate it almost as much as I hate Wisconsin, although this hate has nothing to do with geography - I have no beef with the Irish. I just hate you people who go out and use that day as an excuse to act like total morons. If New Year's Eve is known as amateur night, St. Patrick's should be called I've never ever drank before but I'm going to chain-swallow a bunch of Irish-sounding shots to try to look cool night.
- Oh, you're probably here to read about the Gopher game. I laugh at you. Who cares? It means nothing. Well, not nothing. It does give the team the chance to play a game that might give them a chance to be on the bubble if they win. If that sounded convoluted, well, that's your team's chances to make the NCAA Tournament. A win tomorrow over Sparty at least puts them in the conversation depending on what other teams do. With UAB and Memphis both losing in the C-USA quarters, Arizona State losing early in the Pac, and Wake on a tremendous slide there are spots coming available. Somebody is going to step up and take those spots, why not the Gophers?
I CHOOSE TO BELIEVE
Gophers 70, Michigan State 65.
Monday, March 8, 2010
California is weird, dude
God I have so much to say/write about. Unfortunately, I won't be getting my new computer until Wednesday, so for now this computer in the businnes area of the hotel will have to do, and there is a line behind me so I'll have to keep this short. This place is weird as crap. I'm in Burbank/Hollywood for the new job orientation, and the people here are bizarre. I once called Dayton fans hipster doofuses, which set off a bit of an email firestorm, but I need to apologize to Dayton fans - the true hipster doofuses are out here. Every single person is wearing one of those stupid hats Kevin from the Office wears when he's playing with his band or does something equally douchey by wearing a tie, but wearing it completely untied and just hanging around his neck like a scarf or something. And everyone in the hotel bar just sits and talks about their "scripts" or their "productions." Yeah, I'm sure successfull people just get done with a long day of working and still want to talk about it. I even heard one guy mention the name "Sandler." First, you're a dork. Second, are you really sure you want to proud of attaching Sandler to a project these days? He hasn't been good since that movie with Damon Wayans.
I really have mentally catalogued about a billion things to write about, including this Nick Blackburn signing and everything, but I have no time. This sucks. No computer, stuck in a hotel in an area code where sports are over by 8pm? Seriously it's just after nine here and sports have been over for an hour. I've been stuck playing Texas Hold 'Em on my new phone. And I haven't even seen a celebrity yet. How can I seduce Natalie Portman back up to my room if I don't even see her? Actually I think I might have been in the same line at the rent-a-car place as some PGA golfer. He had nothing but golf clothes on and had some placard around his neck that said "PGA TOUR" and they are in California this week, but I didn't recognize him so at best he's somebody like Marc Leishman. Joy. Or he was just some poser, and I'm starting to think this is the Poser capital of the world.
Oh, and sorry for no Week in Review this week, but what am I gonna do? Believe me it is killing me to not be able to write. I can only assume it's much worse for you since you have nothing good to read while trying to kill time at your shitty job. Here's you short Week in Review:
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. All the teams who won bids. Except Wofford. Good lord the SoCon sucks. That Wofford/App State game tonight was an affront to everyone who likes basketball. No chance they win or cover in the tournament.
2. Those teams who did what they needed to. This would include St. Mary's, Seton Hall, Wake Forest, etc. The teams who needed who win to get in or stay in consideration. It's always nice when a team rises to the occassion. I wouldn't know what that is like.
3. My fantasy college hoops team. I won. Yes, I won the championship. Special thanks to John Shurna, who had a monster week for me, and also to Ralph Sampson, who my opponent had and who did nothing. Congratulations to me, the World Champion of the World.
WHO SUCKED
1. California. You people are weird.
2. All the teams who choked. This would include teams like Dayton, Illinois, and Minnesota. You had your chances and you've ruined them all at several different times. It saddens me that someone like Illionis is probably going to get in. If not them, someone with a simiarly shitty profile. But it's ok, because I have a real good handle on the tournament this year. If I don't win my pool, I'll be shocked.
3. Anyone who didn't watch that Siena/Fairfield game for the MAAC championship. That was a classic. Siena down 15, roars back, we get OT - just a great game to watch, completely different than the WCC final (and the WCC will be going 0-2 in the tournament, guaranteed). Siena is going to be a damn tough team to figure out. They really beat nobody this year and were behind in every MAAC tourny game, but they won every MAAC tourny game, and if you remember the NCAAs last year the same thing happened and they ended up beating Ohio State. I thought their zero big wins profile meant they weren't going to be able to do anything, but maybe that's just their MO. Very weird team.
4. Women's Basketball. I don't give a crap what UCONN women's basketball is doing unless we have some full contact nudity. Don't cut away from the last four minutes of the CAA championship to show me that crap. Title IV be damned.
Ok, I wrote all this in about 8 minutes so you can stuff your sorrys in a sack if there's a typo or a mistake. Captain Weirdo is his bowler hat and Trader Joe's sweatshirt is sweating me to get on a computer so he can email his mom about how somebody halfway looked at his script but he'll still be home in time for dinner. And he's like 40.
California is weird, dude. I see why Zack and Slater ruled this town.
I really have mentally catalogued about a billion things to write about, including this Nick Blackburn signing and everything, but I have no time. This sucks. No computer, stuck in a hotel in an area code where sports are over by 8pm? Seriously it's just after nine here and sports have been over for an hour. I've been stuck playing Texas Hold 'Em on my new phone. And I haven't even seen a celebrity yet. How can I seduce Natalie Portman back up to my room if I don't even see her? Actually I think I might have been in the same line at the rent-a-car place as some PGA golfer. He had nothing but golf clothes on and had some placard around his neck that said "PGA TOUR" and they are in California this week, but I didn't recognize him so at best he's somebody like Marc Leishman. Joy. Or he was just some poser, and I'm starting to think this is the Poser capital of the world.
Oh, and sorry for no Week in Review this week, but what am I gonna do? Believe me it is killing me to not be able to write. I can only assume it's much worse for you since you have nothing good to read while trying to kill time at your shitty job. Here's you short Week in Review:
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. All the teams who won bids. Except Wofford. Good lord the SoCon sucks. That Wofford/App State game tonight was an affront to everyone who likes basketball. No chance they win or cover in the tournament.
2. Those teams who did what they needed to. This would include St. Mary's, Seton Hall, Wake Forest, etc. The teams who needed who win to get in or stay in consideration. It's always nice when a team rises to the occassion. I wouldn't know what that is like.
3. My fantasy college hoops team. I won. Yes, I won the championship. Special thanks to John Shurna, who had a monster week for me, and also to Ralph Sampson, who my opponent had and who did nothing. Congratulations to me, the World Champion of the World.
WHO SUCKED
1. California. You people are weird.
2. All the teams who choked. This would include teams like Dayton, Illinois, and Minnesota. You had your chances and you've ruined them all at several different times. It saddens me that someone like Illionis is probably going to get in. If not them, someone with a simiarly shitty profile. But it's ok, because I have a real good handle on the tournament this year. If I don't win my pool, I'll be shocked.
3. Anyone who didn't watch that Siena/Fairfield game for the MAAC championship. That was a classic. Siena down 15, roars back, we get OT - just a great game to watch, completely different than the WCC final (and the WCC will be going 0-2 in the tournament, guaranteed). Siena is going to be a damn tough team to figure out. They really beat nobody this year and were behind in every MAAC tourny game, but they won every MAAC tourny game, and if you remember the NCAAs last year the same thing happened and they ended up beating Ohio State. I thought their zero big wins profile meant they weren't going to be able to do anything, but maybe that's just their MO. Very weird team.
4. Women's Basketball. I don't give a crap what UCONN women's basketball is doing unless we have some full contact nudity. Don't cut away from the last four minutes of the CAA championship to show me that crap. Title IV be damned.
Ok, I wrote all this in about 8 minutes so you can stuff your sorrys in a sack if there's a typo or a mistake. Captain Weirdo is his bowler hat and Trader Joe's sweatshirt is sweating me to get on a computer so he can email his mom about how somebody halfway looked at his script but he'll still be home in time for dinner. And he's like 40.
California is weird, dude. I see why Zack and Slater ruled this town.
Friday, March 5, 2010
More Conference Tournaments - 3/5
If you pay attention to my fantasy college hoops team and/or the comments when I sometimes write them, you know that I'm in a huge battle for the the world championship of fantasy college hoops and I needed Draymond Green to score 33 points last night to even the score with my opponent with ten games to go each. Well, he picked up exactly 33 (14 points, 9 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 steal), so we are tied with exactly ten games left to go. Barn freaking burner here folks. Saturday is going to be a huge day. Eight of my ten remaining games are Saturday, but he has only five of his dudes going, so I need to have a huge, huge Saturday. Root for me folks. You owe me that much.
In real basketball news, Seton Hall kept their dream alive with a win over Rutgers on the road, while Dayton couldn't do the same thing despite leading Richmond the whole game until there were five minutes left. The Hall still has work to do, while Dayton can now kick back and wait to see if they get a a one or a two seed in the NIT. Ole Miss also kept the dream alive, and with a quickly weakening bubble they are looking better by the day, as is Washington who knocked off Oregon on the road and is starting to look like they will give the Pac-10 two teams instead of just one.
In conference tournament news, Drake began their March towards a MVC tournament crown and surprise NCAA bid by knocking off Southern Illinois, and today will probably beat Northern Iowa and put them back on the bubble. And speaking of conference tournaments, these tournaments kick-off either today or this weekend:
COLONIAL: Similar to the Missouri Valley, the Colonial was the mid-major darling not long ago, highlighted by George Mason's improbable Final Four run, but has fallen off a bit. Also similar to the Missouri Valley the CAA has just one team in play for an at-large - Old Dominion.
FAVORITE: Old Dominion. The Monarchs are a legitimate threat thanks to their stingy defense (21st in D-efficiency), deliberate pace (299th in tempo), and balanced attack (six guys average between 7 and 15 ppg). They have already beaten Georgetown and Charlotte this year and hung right with Richmond and Missouri.
SLEEPER: William & Mary. There are a lot of good, not great, teams to choose from here, and VCU is probably better overall, but W&M is the type of team that is extremely dangerous if they get hot. The rely on the three a ton (5th most reliant on it in the NCAA) and if they get hot they can put teams down in a hurry, just ask Wake and Richmond who they beat this year.
W's PICK: Old Dominion. They are the best team, but it wouldn't surprise me to see them, W&M, VCU, or George Mason win this. The one upper division team you don't have to worry about is Northeastern - they're terrible.
MID-ATLANTIC: The real MAAC hasn't been as fun since Luis Flores graduated, but they do always seem to have one pretty good team whether it's been Manhattan, Niagara, or Siena over the past years. This year it is Siena once again, but this time the Saints haven't done enough for at-large consideration and will need to win the tournament if they're going to notch a first-round upset for the third season in a row.
FAVORITE: Siena. The Saints ran through the conference at 17-1 and with four scorers averaging 14-16 points per game to go with national assist leader Ronald Moore (7.7pg), this team is legit.
SLEEPER: Fairfield. The Stags weren't the team to give Siena their only MAAC loss (that was Niagara), but they were the only team to lose by less than 10 in both meetings with the Saints. That's pretty much the only positive I can find.
W's PICK: Siena. If they had shown they can beat a good team this year, I'd be thinking Sweet 16 for these guys. As it stands they were 0-4 this year against the RPI Top 50, which is why they need to win this thing to get to the dance as well as a pretty good reason to doubt them.
WEST COAST CONFERENCE: Blah blah blah Gonzaga blah blah blah.
FAVORITE: Gonzaga. Again. I loved their team last year and thought they had enough juice to knock out North Carolina, which they clearly didn't. I don't like them as much this year, but this is still a Sweet 16 type team.
SLEEPER: St. Marys. I don't know how much of a sleeper they are since I think everyone who falls college hoops to this level of detail is aware that they have been the Saliere to Gonzaga's Mozart for like fifty years. Of course, this year Gonzaga beat them in both matchups by an average of 15, so I don't know if they're really a threat.
W's PICK: Gonzaga. Outside of St. Mary's there isn't anyone else here who can even challenge them, and I don't think the Gaels pose much of a challenge. More like a puff of wind, really.
SUN BELT: Remember when South Alabama and Western Kentucky were both awesome? Well Courtney Lee and Taco Hawk have both graduated, so you can forget all about it.
FAVORITE: Troy. The Trojans grabbed the number one seed despite a tie atop the conference standings with North Texas and Middle Tennessee. I also don't know jack crap about them. They did beat Auburn earlier and their leading scorer, Brandon Hazzard, has a pretty cool name.
SLEEPER: Western Kentucky. It's not like the fell completely off the face of the earth, finishing fourth behind those other three clowns, and A.J. Slaughter is still here and was part of the Hilltopper teams that won three NCAA Tournament games the past two years. And his name is even cooler than Hazzard.
W's PICK: Western Kentucky. It just won't quite feel like an NCAA Tournament without the Hilltoppers. Plus they beat Vanderbilt earlier this year, so why not?
SUMMIT LEAGUE: Thankfully all those white little weiners from North Dakota State graduated so we don't have to hear about them as a sleeper and read 8 billion stories and be told we should root for them since they reside next door to Minnesota. The downside of course, is that I know almost nothing about the Summit League.
FAVORITE: Oakland. About the only thing I do know is that Oakland is good, and they have a pretty good player and probable future NBAer in junior center Keith Benson who is averaging a double/double this season. Although I really don't like how this Oakland is in Michigan. Too confusing.
SLEEPER: IUPUI. The second place team and only Summit team to beat Oakland this year.
W's PICK: South Dakota State. They finished fourth, hung with Oakland in both games, and the tournament is in South Dakota this year. The main reason to expect them to win, however, is because the media in Minnesota would pick up on it and beat it to death, thus killing my soul once again.
SOUTHERN: Davidson has fallen back into obscurity now that your favorite overrated player has graduated, but there's still a little intrigue here - just no at-large possibility or supremely overrated guard.
FAVORITE: Wofford. Not just because they have Minnesota boy and better brother Noah Dahlman. They are actually a pretty decent team who went 13-3 in the SoCon and beat both Georgia and South Carolina, and held their own against Michigan State and Pitt.
SLEEPER: College of Charleston. They snagged the headlines with their win over North Carolina, although that's looking less impressive by the day, and finished just a game back of Wofford. Plus they still have Bobby Cremins as coach so you can never count them out.
W's PICK: Wofford. They are battle tested after taking on some pretty good teams outside of conference play, they've won ten straight, and actually have an RPI just one spot behind your beloved Gophers. Kill me.
MID-AMERICAN: Doesn't it seem like the MAC should be better? I remember Kent State was pretty good a few years back, and Akron was a good team for the last few years, but when is the last time the MAC snagged an at-large bid?
FAVORITE: Kent State/Akron. Whichever team gets the number one seed would be the favorite since it's up for grabs. That's because these two teams play tonight and are tied atop the standings. The top seeds don't play until next Thursday, even though the opening rounds get going on Sunday.
SLEEPER: Western Michigan. The loser of tonight's game would be your most likely winner if it's not the favorite, but I'm going to give the Sleeper nod to WMU. They have David Kool, who not only has an awesome name but has also led the MAC in scoring for each of the past two years and was 4th the year before that. Sure, they were just 8-8 and they lost to both Akron and Kent State, but they hung tough in both those games, and they're just such a Kool team.
W's PICK: Akron. No matter what happens tonight, I'm picking the Zips. They got hosed big-time back in the Dru Joyce III/Romeo Travis days when they should have snagged at least one at-large bid, and then finally made it last season only to lose to Gonzaga. Four starters are back from that team, and I have a good feeling about this team. Because I know so much about them. Not making that up at all.
BIG SKY: I've always been a fan of the Big Sky, mainly because most of Mama W's family went to that school (as did she for a semester) and because I've been to a game at their arena. I also like this group because of Northern Colorado, because it's fun to say NoCo and also because one time in Chicago me, Bogart, Snake, and Dawger met some guy who played safety for them and he told us about how Colt Brennan shredded them for like 600 yards. Cool story, brah.
FAVORITE: Weber State. For what seems like the 20th year in a row the Wildcats won the regular season crown, which means if they lose in this tournament they get an auto-bid in the NIT, setting up a potential Minnesota vs. Weber State matchup. WORLD'S ARE COLLIDING!!
SLEEPER: NoCo. And not just for the reasons laid out above. The Bears finished one game behind Weber, beat them once, and also took out some mid-tier teams in San Jose State and TCU, and lost to Oklahoma by just one.
W's PICK: Weber. They are actually a pretty decent team who knocked off Utah and has an RPI in the top 100. Good a reason as any, I suppose.
In site news, I am starting a new job on Monday. What that means is that I have to give this laptop back and the end of the day, and I won't be getting my new one until Tuesday when I'm in California, so I won't be posting again until probably Tuesday evening. That also means you won't get a game recap from me for the Iowa/Gopher game. But you probably wouldn't get one anyway because I can't really come up with a reason to watch it. And if you really want a preview here it is:
These teams both suck. Prediction: Gophers 33, Iowa 14.
In real basketball news, Seton Hall kept their dream alive with a win over Rutgers on the road, while Dayton couldn't do the same thing despite leading Richmond the whole game until there were five minutes left. The Hall still has work to do, while Dayton can now kick back and wait to see if they get a a one or a two seed in the NIT. Ole Miss also kept the dream alive, and with a quickly weakening bubble they are looking better by the day, as is Washington who knocked off Oregon on the road and is starting to look like they will give the Pac-10 two teams instead of just one.
In conference tournament news, Drake began their March towards a MVC tournament crown and surprise NCAA bid by knocking off Southern Illinois, and today will probably beat Northern Iowa and put them back on the bubble. And speaking of conference tournaments, these tournaments kick-off either today or this weekend:
COLONIAL: Similar to the Missouri Valley, the Colonial was the mid-major darling not long ago, highlighted by George Mason's improbable Final Four run, but has fallen off a bit. Also similar to the Missouri Valley the CAA has just one team in play for an at-large - Old Dominion.
FAVORITE: Old Dominion. The Monarchs are a legitimate threat thanks to their stingy defense (21st in D-efficiency), deliberate pace (299th in tempo), and balanced attack (six guys average between 7 and 15 ppg). They have already beaten Georgetown and Charlotte this year and hung right with Richmond and Missouri.
SLEEPER: William & Mary. There are a lot of good, not great, teams to choose from here, and VCU is probably better overall, but W&M is the type of team that is extremely dangerous if they get hot. The rely on the three a ton (5th most reliant on it in the NCAA) and if they get hot they can put teams down in a hurry, just ask Wake and Richmond who they beat this year.
W's PICK: Old Dominion. They are the best team, but it wouldn't surprise me to see them, W&M, VCU, or George Mason win this. The one upper division team you don't have to worry about is Northeastern - they're terrible.
MID-ATLANTIC: The real MAAC hasn't been as fun since Luis Flores graduated, but they do always seem to have one pretty good team whether it's been Manhattan, Niagara, or Siena over the past years. This year it is Siena once again, but this time the Saints haven't done enough for at-large consideration and will need to win the tournament if they're going to notch a first-round upset for the third season in a row.
FAVORITE: Siena. The Saints ran through the conference at 17-1 and with four scorers averaging 14-16 points per game to go with national assist leader Ronald Moore (7.7pg), this team is legit.
SLEEPER: Fairfield. The Stags weren't the team to give Siena their only MAAC loss (that was Niagara), but they were the only team to lose by less than 10 in both meetings with the Saints. That's pretty much the only positive I can find.
W's PICK: Siena. If they had shown they can beat a good team this year, I'd be thinking Sweet 16 for these guys. As it stands they were 0-4 this year against the RPI Top 50, which is why they need to win this thing to get to the dance as well as a pretty good reason to doubt them.
WEST COAST CONFERENCE: Blah blah blah Gonzaga blah blah blah.
FAVORITE: Gonzaga. Again. I loved their team last year and thought they had enough juice to knock out North Carolina, which they clearly didn't. I don't like them as much this year, but this is still a Sweet 16 type team.
SLEEPER: St. Marys. I don't know how much of a sleeper they are since I think everyone who falls college hoops to this level of detail is aware that they have been the Saliere to Gonzaga's Mozart for like fifty years. Of course, this year Gonzaga beat them in both matchups by an average of 15, so I don't know if they're really a threat.
W's PICK: Gonzaga. Outside of St. Mary's there isn't anyone else here who can even challenge them, and I don't think the Gaels pose much of a challenge. More like a puff of wind, really.
SUN BELT: Remember when South Alabama and Western Kentucky were both awesome? Well Courtney Lee and Taco Hawk have both graduated, so you can forget all about it.
FAVORITE: Troy. The Trojans grabbed the number one seed despite a tie atop the conference standings with North Texas and Middle Tennessee. I also don't know jack crap about them. They did beat Auburn earlier and their leading scorer, Brandon Hazzard, has a pretty cool name.
SLEEPER: Western Kentucky. It's not like the fell completely off the face of the earth, finishing fourth behind those other three clowns, and A.J. Slaughter is still here and was part of the Hilltopper teams that won three NCAA Tournament games the past two years. And his name is even cooler than Hazzard.
W's PICK: Western Kentucky. It just won't quite feel like an NCAA Tournament without the Hilltoppers. Plus they beat Vanderbilt earlier this year, so why not?
SUMMIT LEAGUE: Thankfully all those white little weiners from North Dakota State graduated so we don't have to hear about them as a sleeper and read 8 billion stories and be told we should root for them since they reside next door to Minnesota. The downside of course, is that I know almost nothing about the Summit League.
FAVORITE: Oakland. About the only thing I do know is that Oakland is good, and they have a pretty good player and probable future NBAer in junior center Keith Benson who is averaging a double/double this season. Although I really don't like how this Oakland is in Michigan. Too confusing.
SLEEPER: IUPUI. The second place team and only Summit team to beat Oakland this year.
W's PICK: South Dakota State. They finished fourth, hung with Oakland in both games, and the tournament is in South Dakota this year. The main reason to expect them to win, however, is because the media in Minnesota would pick up on it and beat it to death, thus killing my soul once again.
SOUTHERN: Davidson has fallen back into obscurity now that your favorite overrated player has graduated, but there's still a little intrigue here - just no at-large possibility or supremely overrated guard.
FAVORITE: Wofford. Not just because they have Minnesota boy and better brother Noah Dahlman. They are actually a pretty decent team who went 13-3 in the SoCon and beat both Georgia and South Carolina, and held their own against Michigan State and Pitt.
SLEEPER: College of Charleston. They snagged the headlines with their win over North Carolina, although that's looking less impressive by the day, and finished just a game back of Wofford. Plus they still have Bobby Cremins as coach so you can never count them out.
W's PICK: Wofford. They are battle tested after taking on some pretty good teams outside of conference play, they've won ten straight, and actually have an RPI just one spot behind your beloved Gophers. Kill me.
MID-AMERICAN: Doesn't it seem like the MAC should be better? I remember Kent State was pretty good a few years back, and Akron was a good team for the last few years, but when is the last time the MAC snagged an at-large bid?
FAVORITE: Kent State/Akron. Whichever team gets the number one seed would be the favorite since it's up for grabs. That's because these two teams play tonight and are tied atop the standings. The top seeds don't play until next Thursday, even though the opening rounds get going on Sunday.
SLEEPER: Western Michigan. The loser of tonight's game would be your most likely winner if it's not the favorite, but I'm going to give the Sleeper nod to WMU. They have David Kool, who not only has an awesome name but has also led the MAC in scoring for each of the past two years and was 4th the year before that. Sure, they were just 8-8 and they lost to both Akron and Kent State, but they hung tough in both those games, and they're just such a Kool team.
W's PICK: Akron. No matter what happens tonight, I'm picking the Zips. They got hosed big-time back in the Dru Joyce III/Romeo Travis days when they should have snagged at least one at-large bid, and then finally made it last season only to lose to Gonzaga. Four starters are back from that team, and I have a good feeling about this team. Because I know so much about them. Not making that up at all.
BIG SKY: I've always been a fan of the Big Sky, mainly because most of Mama W's family went to that school (as did she for a semester) and because I've been to a game at their arena. I also like this group because of Northern Colorado, because it's fun to say NoCo and also because one time in Chicago me, Bogart, Snake, and Dawger met some guy who played safety for them and he told us about how Colt Brennan shredded them for like 600 yards. Cool story, brah.
FAVORITE: Weber State. For what seems like the 20th year in a row the Wildcats won the regular season crown, which means if they lose in this tournament they get an auto-bid in the NIT, setting up a potential Minnesota vs. Weber State matchup. WORLD'S ARE COLLIDING!!
SLEEPER: NoCo. And not just for the reasons laid out above. The Bears finished one game behind Weber, beat them once, and also took out some mid-tier teams in San Jose State and TCU, and lost to Oklahoma by just one.
W's PICK: Weber. They are actually a pretty decent team who knocked off Utah and has an RPI in the top 100. Good a reason as any, I suppose.
In site news, I am starting a new job on Monday. What that means is that I have to give this laptop back and the end of the day, and I won't be getting my new one until Tuesday when I'm in California, so I won't be posting again until probably Tuesday evening. That also means you won't get a game recap from me for the Iowa/Gopher game. But you probably wouldn't get one anyway because I can't really come up with a reason to watch it. And if you really want a preview here it is:
These teams both suck. Prediction: Gophers 33, Iowa 14.
Thursday, March 4, 2010
Well that sucked
Well yesterday certainly sucked. As you probably inferred from the post directly below this one, we had to put our kick-ass super awesome cat Merlin down yesterday. He was fine in the morning and near death in the evening due to some pretty serious health issues that suddenly popped up. You will be missed, good buddy. You will be missed.
On to the basketball, because life does go on, after all and there are bubbles and tournaments that need attention. The two biggest bubble games were the Memphis vs. UAB and UCONN vs. Notre Dame tilts, and the big winners were the Tigers and the Irish. The Memphis win puts them on the same level as UAB, both squarely in the middle of the bubble. They both close with tough C-USA matchups (Memphis vs. Tulsa, UAB @ UTEP) and then the C-USA Tourney. It's not hard to imagine a scenario with either both in, or both out. Notre Dame's big win assures them of at least a .500 record in the Big East, which might be enough to get them in, while UCONN is now 7-10 in conference play and looking very dicey.
Florida State and Rhode Island also picked up big wins (over Wake and Charlotte). FSU is in better shape than Rhodey (who will probably need to make the A-10 final or big up a big win in the tournament), Charlotte is done, and Wake is suddenly looking like a bubble team instead of a "lock" thanks to a four-game skid. They really need to win their finale at home against Clemson or the ACC tournament is going to become huge for them.
In the three other games with at-large implications Virginia Tech beat NC State, SDSU crushed Colorado State, and Mississippi State was upset by Auburn. The Hokies now have nine ACC wins with a game at Georgia Tech left on the schedule. If they pull that one out and get to ten wins it's going to be hard to keep them out, despite an empty computer profile. SDSU is still tracking to give the MWC four teams. BYU, New Mexico, and maybe UNLV are all pretty much in already and the Aztecs might need to pick one of them off in the MWC tournament. If that upset comes against UNLV things get very interesting between the two teams. Finally, the Bulldogs' loss to Auburn might have tossed them from the conversation, which sucks because I'd love to watch Varnado in the tournament. Oh, and I forgot St. Louis lost to Temple which kills their chances.
As usual during this week, there are a few conference tournaments kicking off today:
NORTHEAST CONFERENCE: Generally, year-after-year, the worst three conferences are the MEAC, the Independents, and the SWAC. This year the MEAC actually crept ahead of someone - the NEC. They were hurt by the addition of Bryant who went 1-29, but this is a bad, bad group of basketball teams. The days of Charles Jones and LIU are long gone.
FAVORITE: Quinnipiac. The Bobcats finished in a regular-season tie at the top of the NEC standings with Robert Morris, but get favorite status thanks to a better overall record and a win over RMU in their only regular season meeting.
SLEEPER: Mount Saint Mary's. The Mountaineers finished three games behind the conference leaders, but come into the NEC tournament with a ten-game winning streak that including wins over both Quinnipiac and RMU. I started to do some research to see why they got so hot in the last two months of the season, but then I remembered that this is the NEC and I've probably spent too much time on it already.
W's PICK: Quinnipiac. I almost went with Robert Morris since they won this thing last year, but QP leads the conference in scoring, rebounding, and field goal percentage. Should be enough to win.
MISSOURI VALLEY: Once the darling of the mid-major crowd, the MVC has fallen off the face of the earth and now has just one team with a shot at an at-large in Northern Iowa. Perhaps a great indicator of the drop is Southern Illinois at 6-12 in MVC play. Once the jewel (along with Creighton) of the MVC, years of sustained high-level play have come to an end, and most of the rest of the conference has followed.
FAVORITE: Northern Iowa. I actually think the Panthers are really overrated this year, but they won the conference regular season crown by three games and have an overall record of 25-4. Of course, those losses are to DePaul (RPI = 191), Bradley (107), Wichita State (51), and Evansville (243) and outside of wins over Siena and Old Dominion (and Wichita) there's nothing here. This is not a team that will pull an upset in the first round of the NCAAs. Trust me.
SLEEPER: Illinois State. They finished just 11-7 in the conference, but they might be the most talented team. They have the leading MVC scorer (Osiris Eldridge), rebounder (Dinma Odiakosa), field-goal percentage shooter (Odiakosa), and third-leading assist guy (Lloyd Phillips). They've won six of their last seven, and this same group has fallen just short of the NCAAs and ended up in the NIT the past two seasons.
W's PICK: Drake. Just for our very own Rockies guy. Plus they have that Josh Young guy, who is probably the best player in Iowa.
AMERICAN EAST: This isn't a highly rated conference by any stretch, but they do seem to produce teams that are tough outs in the tournament (Vermont, Albany). This year doesn't look like it will it will continue that trend, with no real good teams coming out of the AEC. Additionally, Binghampton, who had a chance to be a decent sleeper this week, has pulled out of the tournament due to the ongoing legal woes with the program.
FAVORITE: Stony Brook. They won the conference with a 13-3 mark and had a 5-1 mark against the other top teams.
SLEEPER: Maine. They finished in third and were the only upper-division team to beat Stony Brook.
W's PICK: Vermont. The Catamounts have the pedigree and, more importantly, have one of the best players most people haven't heard of in Marquis Blakely, a 6-5 senior forward who does it all for Vermont. I haven't actually seen him play (Vermont isn't on TV as much as you might think), but ranking second in scoring, rebounding, and field goal percentage and fourth in assists in the AEC is pretty impressive.
TONIGHT'S BUBBLE GAMES
Seton Hall @ Rutgers - The Pirates are still alive based almost solely on the fact that they are in the Big East, where at 7-9 they can still pull to .500, and that's a possibility with this game and than another one at Providence. If they can win the last two on the road and then do something in the Big East Tournament they have a good shot at a bid.
Dayton @ Richmond - The Flyers were supposed to be good, but instead find themselves clinging to life. A win would go a long way towards a bid, but a loss here probably ends the dream.
LSU @ Ole Miss - The Rebels have climbed back into the picture with a late two game winning streak and a quickly weakening bubble (also the reason Lunardi has the Gophers as the fifth team out right now, but don't hold your breath). Of course, like a lot of other teams right now a loss probably puts them out.
Washington @ Oregon - God the Pac 10 sucks.
USC @ Arizona State - Yep, still sucks.
RIP Merlin. If there's a cat heaven go ahead and give your Cat God a nice swipe of a claw for me.
And then kick him in his little cat nuts.
On to the basketball, because life does go on, after all and there are bubbles and tournaments that need attention. The two biggest bubble games were the Memphis vs. UAB and UCONN vs. Notre Dame tilts, and the big winners were the Tigers and the Irish. The Memphis win puts them on the same level as UAB, both squarely in the middle of the bubble. They both close with tough C-USA matchups (Memphis vs. Tulsa, UAB @ UTEP) and then the C-USA Tourney. It's not hard to imagine a scenario with either both in, or both out. Notre Dame's big win assures them of at least a .500 record in the Big East, which might be enough to get them in, while UCONN is now 7-10 in conference play and looking very dicey.
Florida State and Rhode Island also picked up big wins (over Wake and Charlotte). FSU is in better shape than Rhodey (who will probably need to make the A-10 final or big up a big win in the tournament), Charlotte is done, and Wake is suddenly looking like a bubble team instead of a "lock" thanks to a four-game skid. They really need to win their finale at home against Clemson or the ACC tournament is going to become huge for them.
In the three other games with at-large implications Virginia Tech beat NC State, SDSU crushed Colorado State, and Mississippi State was upset by Auburn. The Hokies now have nine ACC wins with a game at Georgia Tech left on the schedule. If they pull that one out and get to ten wins it's going to be hard to keep them out, despite an empty computer profile. SDSU is still tracking to give the MWC four teams. BYU, New Mexico, and maybe UNLV are all pretty much in already and the Aztecs might need to pick one of them off in the MWC tournament. If that upset comes against UNLV things get very interesting between the two teams. Finally, the Bulldogs' loss to Auburn might have tossed them from the conversation, which sucks because I'd love to watch Varnado in the tournament. Oh, and I forgot St. Louis lost to Temple which kills their chances.
As usual during this week, there are a few conference tournaments kicking off today:
NORTHEAST CONFERENCE: Generally, year-after-year, the worst three conferences are the MEAC, the Independents, and the SWAC. This year the MEAC actually crept ahead of someone - the NEC. They were hurt by the addition of Bryant who went 1-29, but this is a bad, bad group of basketball teams. The days of Charles Jones and LIU are long gone.
FAVORITE: Quinnipiac. The Bobcats finished in a regular-season tie at the top of the NEC standings with Robert Morris, but get favorite status thanks to a better overall record and a win over RMU in their only regular season meeting.
SLEEPER: Mount Saint Mary's. The Mountaineers finished three games behind the conference leaders, but come into the NEC tournament with a ten-game winning streak that including wins over both Quinnipiac and RMU. I started to do some research to see why they got so hot in the last two months of the season, but then I remembered that this is the NEC and I've probably spent too much time on it already.
W's PICK: Quinnipiac. I almost went with Robert Morris since they won this thing last year, but QP leads the conference in scoring, rebounding, and field goal percentage. Should be enough to win.
MISSOURI VALLEY: Once the darling of the mid-major crowd, the MVC has fallen off the face of the earth and now has just one team with a shot at an at-large in Northern Iowa. Perhaps a great indicator of the drop is Southern Illinois at 6-12 in MVC play. Once the jewel (along with Creighton) of the MVC, years of sustained high-level play have come to an end, and most of the rest of the conference has followed.
FAVORITE: Northern Iowa. I actually think the Panthers are really overrated this year, but they won the conference regular season crown by three games and have an overall record of 25-4. Of course, those losses are to DePaul (RPI = 191), Bradley (107), Wichita State (51), and Evansville (243) and outside of wins over Siena and Old Dominion (and Wichita) there's nothing here. This is not a team that will pull an upset in the first round of the NCAAs. Trust me.
SLEEPER: Illinois State. They finished just 11-7 in the conference, but they might be the most talented team. They have the leading MVC scorer (Osiris Eldridge), rebounder (Dinma Odiakosa), field-goal percentage shooter (Odiakosa), and third-leading assist guy (Lloyd Phillips). They've won six of their last seven, and this same group has fallen just short of the NCAAs and ended up in the NIT the past two seasons.
W's PICK: Drake. Just for our very own Rockies guy. Plus they have that Josh Young guy, who is probably the best player in Iowa.
AMERICAN EAST: This isn't a highly rated conference by any stretch, but they do seem to produce teams that are tough outs in the tournament (Vermont, Albany). This year doesn't look like it will it will continue that trend, with no real good teams coming out of the AEC. Additionally, Binghampton, who had a chance to be a decent sleeper this week, has pulled out of the tournament due to the ongoing legal woes with the program.
FAVORITE: Stony Brook. They won the conference with a 13-3 mark and had a 5-1 mark against the other top teams.
SLEEPER: Maine. They finished in third and were the only upper-division team to beat Stony Brook.
W's PICK: Vermont. The Catamounts have the pedigree and, more importantly, have one of the best players most people haven't heard of in Marquis Blakely, a 6-5 senior forward who does it all for Vermont. I haven't actually seen him play (Vermont isn't on TV as much as you might think), but ranking second in scoring, rebounding, and field goal percentage and fourth in assists in the AEC is pretty impressive.
TONIGHT'S BUBBLE GAMES
Seton Hall @ Rutgers - The Pirates are still alive based almost solely on the fact that they are in the Big East, where at 7-9 they can still pull to .500, and that's a possibility with this game and than another one at Providence. If they can win the last two on the road and then do something in the Big East Tournament they have a good shot at a bid.
Dayton @ Richmond - The Flyers were supposed to be good, but instead find themselves clinging to life. A win would go a long way towards a bid, but a loss here probably ends the dream.
LSU @ Ole Miss - The Rebels have climbed back into the picture with a late two game winning streak and a quickly weakening bubble (also the reason Lunardi has the Gophers as the fifth team out right now, but don't hold your breath). Of course, like a lot of other teams right now a loss probably puts them out.
Washington @ Oregon - God the Pac 10 sucks.
USC @ Arizona State - Yep, still sucks.
RIP Merlin. If there's a cat heaven go ahead and give your Cat God a nice swipe of a claw for me.
And then kick him in his little cat nuts.
Wednesday, March 3, 2010
That was the Most Pathetic Thing I Have Ever Seen.
At least we don't have to worry about sweating on Selection Sunday anymore. I know I said I was anticipating a loss, but I couldn't have predicted this. Absolutely pathetic in every possible way. I don't know what was worse, the lay-up line they gave Michigan, the complete lack of anything resembling defensive pressure by the Gophers, or the stagnant offense. Also, can anybody tell me if Tubby ever went back to the zone, or was the one dunk allowed when Sims slipped behind the zone so damaging that he stayed in the man-to-man the entire game despite the fact that there wasn't a single Gopher who could cover any single Wolverine the entire game? I don't know, because at the 15 minute mark of the second half I put my DVR on x3 mode and never saw a reason to stop as the Michigan side of the score kept rising.
Utter and complete humiliation, and everybody - with the possible exception of Damian Johnson - is to blame. Obviously in my tenure as a Gopher fan I've seen bad defeats. I've been let down, disappointed, and even embarrassed at times, but I believe this is the first time I've been ashamed. Zero effort, poor preparation, no hustle or defense at all, and no adjustments. If there were a way to dismiss the entire team and coaching staff and start over right now, I'd be all for it.
But if the Gophers don't seem to care about getting to the NCAA Tournament I don't see why I should, so let's just move on. It's still March, and if you care about basketball there is still a lot to pay attention to (not to mention Spring Training is getting going). Cincinnati lost a game last night that knocked them off the bubble with the Gophers (possible NIT match-up?), while Florida couldn't quite pull off the upset against Vanderbilt. That loss doesn't kill them, but it would have been very helpful to get.
And congrats to UTEP, who beat Marshall last night and clinched their first Conference USA Championship, which should be good enough to clinch an NCAA bid as well. Clemson likely also punched their ticket by knocking off Georgia Tech, as did Marquette with their win over Louisville. Meanwhile, Illinois joined the Gophers in their efforts to get the Big Ten just four bids. Good work, gents!
Plenty of action going on today, including a couple of monster games involving four good teams: Kansas State @ Kansas and Maryland @ Duke. Of course, there are also a couple conference tournaments kicking off again today, and since you brought it up:
ATLANTIC SUN: The A-Sun is a lower tier conference which seems even lower because outside of Belmont none of the team's are really recognizable: Jacksonville? Lipscomb? Kennesaw State? And they are currently in a state of flux with new additions South Carolina Upstate and Florida Gulf Coast - seems like a really geographically specific conference.
FAVORITE: Belmont. There is actually a four-way tie at the top of the standings with Belmont, Campbell, Lipscomb, and Jacksonville, but I give the nod to Belmont because they have the highest ranking by Ken Pomeroy's numbers (#131) and rank in the top 170 in both offensive and defensive efficiency - the only team in the conference to do so.
SLEEPER: Lipscomb. They swept Belmont and split against the other contenders, and that's good enough for me. Plus, they rank in the top 80 in offensive efficiency, the only A-Sun team to rank that high in anything.
W's PICK: Belmont. They seem to always play tough and pushed Duke to the limit in the tournament last year, not to mention a near-upset in the regular season of Tennessee a couple of years ago.
PATRIOT LEAGUE: The Patriot ranks even worse than the A-Sun, coming in 27th out of 33 in conference ratings at Kenpom.com, but is more fun because I read John Feinstein's book about it (The Last Amateurs) a few years ago, which highlighted that this is the kind of conference where a star player has to drop off the team because he needs more time to work on his Biochem Doctorate. I don't condone that kind of quitting or having your priorities that out of whack, but it was a fun book.
FAVORITE: Lehigh. They won the regular season crown at 10-4, and Snacks has a Lehigh Hooded Sweatshirt for some reason so he could always where that when he goes to the bar to watch the play-in game.
SLEEPER: Navy. I always think team's that play a radically different style from the rest of the conference are dangerous, and Navy qualifies with a up-tempo game that ranked 14th fastest in the country when only one other team in the Patriot ranked in the top 100, even if they don't play any defense (DEf = 286th). But Navy did sweep Lehigh and they have the conference's top scorer in Chris Harris.
W's PICK: Bucknell. These team's are all terrible, so it comes down to who gets hot and Bucknell has won five of their last six. Plus, they are at least kind of a name school (Kansas = hi).
TONIGHT'S BUBBLE GAMES
Temple @ St. Louis - The Billikens need to keep winning. They are probably all the way out barring a run all the way to the A-10 final, but knocking off a RPI Top 20 team would help.
Wake Forest @ Florida State - Both teams could use this game, but FSU needs it to get a bid while Wake needs it to stop their losing streak (they're almost certainly in already).
UCONN @ Notre Dame - Not quite an elimination game, since I think even the loser can still get into the tournament, but the winner takes a big step forward.
Charlotte @ Rhode Island - A true bubble elimination game right here.
NC State @ Virginia Tech - Va Tech is in "can't lose another game" mode.
Miss State @ Auburn - I think the Bulldogs are in pretty good shape, but a loss to Auburn would put that all in jeopardy.
Memphis @ UAB - Another elimination game - certainly for Memphis, probably for UAB.
Colorado State @ San Diego State. SDSU is another team in "can't lose" mode.
I also want to mention that this post is the first time I've used the "NIT" post label in two years. That's fairly depressing. Although it brings me to a good question - which is more prestigious, the CBI or the CIT?
Utter and complete humiliation, and everybody - with the possible exception of Damian Johnson - is to blame. Obviously in my tenure as a Gopher fan I've seen bad defeats. I've been let down, disappointed, and even embarrassed at times, but I believe this is the first time I've been ashamed. Zero effort, poor preparation, no hustle or defense at all, and no adjustments. If there were a way to dismiss the entire team and coaching staff and start over right now, I'd be all for it.
But if the Gophers don't seem to care about getting to the NCAA Tournament I don't see why I should, so let's just move on. It's still March, and if you care about basketball there is still a lot to pay attention to (not to mention Spring Training is getting going). Cincinnati lost a game last night that knocked them off the bubble with the Gophers (possible NIT match-up?), while Florida couldn't quite pull off the upset against Vanderbilt. That loss doesn't kill them, but it would have been very helpful to get.
And congrats to UTEP, who beat Marshall last night and clinched their first Conference USA Championship, which should be good enough to clinch an NCAA bid as well. Clemson likely also punched their ticket by knocking off Georgia Tech, as did Marquette with their win over Louisville. Meanwhile, Illinois joined the Gophers in their efforts to get the Big Ten just four bids. Good work, gents!
Plenty of action going on today, including a couple of monster games involving four good teams: Kansas State @ Kansas and Maryland @ Duke. Of course, there are also a couple conference tournaments kicking off again today, and since you brought it up:
ATLANTIC SUN: The A-Sun is a lower tier conference which seems even lower because outside of Belmont none of the team's are really recognizable: Jacksonville? Lipscomb? Kennesaw State? And they are currently in a state of flux with new additions South Carolina Upstate and Florida Gulf Coast - seems like a really geographically specific conference.
FAVORITE: Belmont. There is actually a four-way tie at the top of the standings with Belmont, Campbell, Lipscomb, and Jacksonville, but I give the nod to Belmont because they have the highest ranking by Ken Pomeroy's numbers (#131) and rank in the top 170 in both offensive and defensive efficiency - the only team in the conference to do so.
SLEEPER: Lipscomb. They swept Belmont and split against the other contenders, and that's good enough for me. Plus, they rank in the top 80 in offensive efficiency, the only A-Sun team to rank that high in anything.
W's PICK: Belmont. They seem to always play tough and pushed Duke to the limit in the tournament last year, not to mention a near-upset in the regular season of Tennessee a couple of years ago.
PATRIOT LEAGUE: The Patriot ranks even worse than the A-Sun, coming in 27th out of 33 in conference ratings at Kenpom.com, but is more fun because I read John Feinstein's book about it (The Last Amateurs) a few years ago, which highlighted that this is the kind of conference where a star player has to drop off the team because he needs more time to work on his Biochem Doctorate. I don't condone that kind of quitting or having your priorities that out of whack, but it was a fun book.
FAVORITE: Lehigh. They won the regular season crown at 10-4, and Snacks has a Lehigh Hooded Sweatshirt for some reason so he could always where that when he goes to the bar to watch the play-in game.
SLEEPER: Navy. I always think team's that play a radically different style from the rest of the conference are dangerous, and Navy qualifies with a up-tempo game that ranked 14th fastest in the country when only one other team in the Patriot ranked in the top 100, even if they don't play any defense (DEf = 286th). But Navy did sweep Lehigh and they have the conference's top scorer in Chris Harris.
W's PICK: Bucknell. These team's are all terrible, so it comes down to who gets hot and Bucknell has won five of their last six. Plus, they are at least kind of a name school (Kansas = hi).
TONIGHT'S BUBBLE GAMES
Temple @ St. Louis - The Billikens need to keep winning. They are probably all the way out barring a run all the way to the A-10 final, but knocking off a RPI Top 20 team would help.
Wake Forest @ Florida State - Both teams could use this game, but FSU needs it to get a bid while Wake needs it to stop their losing streak (they're almost certainly in already).
UCONN @ Notre Dame - Not quite an elimination game, since I think even the loser can still get into the tournament, but the winner takes a big step forward.
Charlotte @ Rhode Island - A true bubble elimination game right here.
NC State @ Virginia Tech - Va Tech is in "can't lose another game" mode.
Miss State @ Auburn - I think the Bulldogs are in pretty good shape, but a loss to Auburn would put that all in jeopardy.
Memphis @ UAB - Another elimination game - certainly for Memphis, probably for UAB.
Colorado State @ San Diego State. SDSU is another team in "can't lose" mode.
I also want to mention that this post is the first time I've used the "NIT" post label in two years. That's fairly depressing. Although it brings me to a good question - which is more prestigious, the CBI or the CIT?
Tuesday, March 2, 2010
Welcome to March
Yep, it's the best time of the year folks - March. And although everybody knows about and loves the big tournament, I am almost as entertained by all the conference tournaments going on as well, and they start this week - today, actually. As I do every year, I'm going to run them down for you with some mini-previews - mini-previews I'm pretty sure nobody reads, but I don't really care that much about you anyway. I like doing it, and I'm kind of in charge around here, so let's get to it. And if you're looking for a Michigan preview, it's in this post I put up yesterday.
These tournaments kick-off today:
OHIO VALLEY: It seems like Murray State has dominated this conference over the past couple of decades dating all the way back to Popeye Jones and his Shrek-like ears and this year is no exception. It's also one of the slowest paced and most deliberate conferences around, with all but the 1-15 Tennessee-Martin squad ranking in the bottom 50% of the nation in terms of tempo. Also known as Yawn City.
FAVORITE: Murray State. They ripped through the league this year at 17-1 and were 24-3 overall and actually have people talking about them in consideration for an at-large bid even though their best non-conference win was over East Tennessee State. Once again, most people are morons.
SLEEPER: Morehead State. They won this thing last year (and won the play-in game in the tourney), they were the only team to beat Murray in conference play this year, and they have future NBA second-round pick Kenneth Faried.
W's PICK: Morehead State. More experience, and I think Murry State is a bit overrated this year.
BIG SOUTH: One of the worst conferences in the Country, nobody can score the basketball in the Big South. The best squad in terms of offensive efficiency, Coastal Carolina, was no better
FAVORITE: Coastal Carolina.
SLEEPER: Radford. It's not easy to find a sleeper in a conference this bad, and as tempting as VMI is to pick due to their crazy style of play (#1 tempo, #347 defense) they are just not good enough this year, so I'm going with Radford. They have the best non-conference win out of anybody in the Big South (over George Mason), they already beat Coastal Carolina once, the have the likely conference POY in Artsiom Parakhouski, and they are in second place. Good enough for me.
W's PICK: Radford. I'm not picking a team called the Chanticleers that wears teal, so Radford gets the pick by default.
HORIZON: Same situation in the Horizon that we've had the last several years - Butler is the class of the league and the only one who will get an at-large bid if they need one. If the Bulldogs go the distance and win the Horizon crown it opens up a bid for one lucky bubble team. If they get knocked off, somebody like is going to be looking at an NIT berth.
FAVORITE: Butler.
SLEEPER: Detroit. They aren't the second-place team, or even third, fourth, or so on. They are actually in 7th and were just 9-9 in the Horizon, but they are dangerous. They are an experienced, talented team (with transfers from Indiana Eli Holman and Xavier Keeling) and they gave Butler all they could handle, losing by just two (in overtime) and five in their two meetings.
W's PICK: Butler. They are so far above and beyond everyone else in this conference they can walk their way to the championship.
BUBBLE WATCH
Only one game affecting the bubble last night (although if Texas hadn't pulled it out against Oklahoma we my have found the Longhorns suddenly questioning their credentials) and that was Utah State against Fresno, and the Aggies destroyed them by about 40. Utah State doesn't have a great profile, but they've won 14 in a row and have a nice win over BYU. With only one regular season game left (against New Mexico State) at this point Gopher fans have two things to root for, either an Aggie loss in the final game or early in the WAC tournament which would knock them out of at-large consideration or that they win the tournament. If USU gets all the way to the championship and then loses, I have a feeling they are in - which obviously knocks another bubble team out.
Tonight's Bubble Games (along with the Gophers/Michigan, which is again previewed right here):
Illinois @ Ohio State - Despite the 10-6 conference record the Illini are still shaky. With just this game and then a home tilt against Wisconsin left they probably need to get one more win.
Villanova @ Cincinnati - The Bearcats are the opposite of Illinois with a nice non-conference profile but have struggled in the Big East. This chance, at home, to grab a big-time win can't be squandered.
Vanderbilt @ Florida - The Gators are in pretty good shape, but a loss to Georgia last week put them back in question mark status. Beating Vandy will probably lock up the bid.
UTEP @ Marshall - Thanks to a strong run through C-USA, the Miners are in good shape. They can't afford more than maybe one more loss and Marshall is a tough team, so this is a big one.
South Florida @ DePaul - USF isn't even in ESPN's Bubble Watch right now, but if they win this and then knock off UCONN at home on Saturday that gets them to 9-9 in the Big East with wins over UCONN, Georgetown (road), and Pitt with only one really bad loss (Central Michigan). If that happens, they become an at-large threat depending on their Big East tournament performance.
Georgia Tech @ Clemson - Both teams are in good shape, so instead of an elimination game this more like a "win and you've guaranteed yourself a bid" game.
Louisville @ Marquette - Pretty much the same as above
But really, all that matters right now is this damn Gopher game tonight. I'm peeing in my pants scared right now. Please don't hurt me again Manny.
These tournaments kick-off today:
OHIO VALLEY: It seems like Murray State has dominated this conference over the past couple of decades dating all the way back to Popeye Jones and his Shrek-like ears and this year is no exception. It's also one of the slowest paced and most deliberate conferences around, with all but the 1-15 Tennessee-Martin squad ranking in the bottom 50% of the nation in terms of tempo. Also known as Yawn City.
FAVORITE: Murray State. They ripped through the league this year at 17-1 and were 24-3 overall and actually have people talking about them in consideration for an at-large bid even though their best non-conference win was over East Tennessee State. Once again, most people are morons.
SLEEPER: Morehead State. They won this thing last year (and won the play-in game in the tourney), they were the only team to beat Murray in conference play this year, and they have future NBA second-round pick Kenneth Faried.
W's PICK: Morehead State. More experience, and I think Murry State is a bit overrated this year.
BIG SOUTH: One of the worst conferences in the Country, nobody can score the basketball in the Big South. The best squad in terms of offensive efficiency, Coastal Carolina, was no better
FAVORITE: Coastal Carolina.
SLEEPER: Radford. It's not easy to find a sleeper in a conference this bad, and as tempting as VMI is to pick due to their crazy style of play (#1 tempo, #347 defense) they are just not good enough this year, so I'm going with Radford. They have the best non-conference win out of anybody in the Big South (over George Mason), they already beat Coastal Carolina once, the have the likely conference POY in Artsiom Parakhouski, and they are in second place. Good enough for me.
W's PICK: Radford. I'm not picking a team called the Chanticleers that wears teal, so Radford gets the pick by default.
HORIZON: Same situation in the Horizon that we've had the last several years - Butler is the class of the league and the only one who will get an at-large bid if they need one. If the Bulldogs go the distance and win the Horizon crown it opens up a bid for one lucky bubble team. If they get knocked off, somebody like is going to be looking at an NIT berth.
FAVORITE: Butler.
SLEEPER: Detroit. They aren't the second-place team, or even third, fourth, or so on. They are actually in 7th and were just 9-9 in the Horizon, but they are dangerous. They are an experienced, talented team (with transfers from Indiana Eli Holman and Xavier Keeling) and they gave Butler all they could handle, losing by just two (in overtime) and five in their two meetings.
W's PICK: Butler. They are so far above and beyond everyone else in this conference they can walk their way to the championship.
BUBBLE WATCH
Only one game affecting the bubble last night (although if Texas hadn't pulled it out against Oklahoma we my have found the Longhorns suddenly questioning their credentials) and that was Utah State against Fresno, and the Aggies destroyed them by about 40. Utah State doesn't have a great profile, but they've won 14 in a row and have a nice win over BYU. With only one regular season game left (against New Mexico State) at this point Gopher fans have two things to root for, either an Aggie loss in the final game or early in the WAC tournament which would knock them out of at-large consideration or that they win the tournament. If USU gets all the way to the championship and then loses, I have a feeling they are in - which obviously knocks another bubble team out.
Tonight's Bubble Games (along with the Gophers/Michigan, which is again previewed right here):
Illinois @ Ohio State - Despite the 10-6 conference record the Illini are still shaky. With just this game and then a home tilt against Wisconsin left they probably need to get one more win.
Villanova @ Cincinnati - The Bearcats are the opposite of Illinois with a nice non-conference profile but have struggled in the Big East. This chance, at home, to grab a big-time win can't be squandered.
Vanderbilt @ Florida - The Gators are in pretty good shape, but a loss to Georgia last week put them back in question mark status. Beating Vandy will probably lock up the bid.
UTEP @ Marshall - Thanks to a strong run through C-USA, the Miners are in good shape. They can't afford more than maybe one more loss and Marshall is a tough team, so this is a big one.
South Florida @ DePaul - USF isn't even in ESPN's Bubble Watch right now, but if they win this and then knock off UCONN at home on Saturday that gets them to 9-9 in the Big East with wins over UCONN, Georgetown (road), and Pitt with only one really bad loss (Central Michigan). If that happens, they become an at-large threat depending on their Big East tournament performance.
Georgia Tech @ Clemson - Both teams are in good shape, so instead of an elimination game this more like a "win and you've guaranteed yourself a bid" game.
Louisville @ Marquette - Pretty much the same as above
But really, all that matters right now is this damn Gopher game tonight. I'm peeing in my pants scared right now. Please don't hurt me again Manny.
Monday, March 1, 2010
I am terrified to write this preview
Yes, I am terrified. The Gopher win over Illinois this weekend did just enough to get them back into bubble talks, and with two "easy" games left - at Michigan and vs. Iowa - things should be looking in decent shape for them to stay in consideration.
But my entire Minnesota rooting life has conditioned me to expect the worst and I am nearly certain they will lose one of these two games. Will they win the "tougher" one and beat Michigan just to drop the "easy" game and the end of the schedule? Or will they just drop this first one here and put everyone out of their misery? Or is it possible, just possible, they'll ask win both games, as they should, and go into the Big Ten Tournament in good enough shape to justify consideration?
I don't know, I just don't, but this feels just like watching the Vikings/Saints all over again. You don't know why or how, but you just know things aren't going to go in your favore.
1. So how has Michigan done since their soul-crushing defeat of the Gophers? They followed up that win by winning at Iowa, and since have lost three straight: versus Penn State and Illinois and at Ohio State while failing to score more than fifty-five points in any game. They have continued to be terrible at scoring the basketball, and have shot 36% or less in all three games during the losing streak while continuing to be horrible at shooting the three-pointer, hitting a combined 17-76 (22%) in the three games while shooting them with the frequency of a drunk wrestler at open gym, taking 76 of them compared to just 40 by their opponents. In short, they're still bad.
2. Remind me again how the Gophers lost last time? Michigan actually scored the ball, hitting 50% from the field and 7-14 from three, with less reliance on the three-point shot because they were able to get the ball inside, leading to DeShawn Sims doing whatever he wanted and scoring 27 points. Not to mention that the Wolverines only turned it over eight times, and the future (and the now) of the Gophers, Devoe and Sampson, combined to score just eleven points on 3-12 shooting. You can read my live blog of the game here, but I have to warn you that by the end it just degenerated into me insulting the Gophers using British slang.
3. So are we still worried about Sims? Well, he followed up that monster game against the Gophers with another good one against Iowa (27 and 10), but since then has fallen back to earth. He's gone 10 and 8, 7 and 13, and 11 and 6 in the losing streak, and has hit on just 34% of his field goal attempts. The problem isn't even that he's fallen back in love with the three-point shot, which he has a tendency to do, since he took just three attempts in those three games. Since he started since slump, Ralphie has gone in the opposite direction, and even though he didn't put up impressive numbers against Illinois he is still showing more emotion and more aggressiveness. I think Ralph dominates Sims, so I'm not worried. I mean, I'm worried, but I'm not worried.
4. Any sneaky "key-to-the-game" type players for the Gophers this time around? I'm going with Paul Carter and, to a lesser extent, Rodney Williams. Michigan has a limited number of athletes, and when they're busy trying to check the Gophers' main guys, Carter and Williams should be able to have success getting inside. Especially Carter, who has been very good lately when given the playing time. In his last three games where he's played more than 10 minutes (Michigan, Northwestern, and Illinois) he's hit double-figures in scoring and grabbed at least 3 boards while hitting 13 of 18 shot attempts. Rodney had his second-best game in the Big Ten season against Illinois, going for 8 points and 6 rebounds, and could be finally breaking out - no better time than the present.
5. So do they stay alive for a bid? There really isn't any reason to believe Michigan is going to win this game. They are a bad, bad team, and the only Big Ten wins they have grabbed in Ann Arbor this year were against Iowa, Indiana, and Ohio State without Evan Turner. Of course, they also beat UCONN in Crisler. Even more of course, the beat the Gophers in Minneapolis. And the most of course of all, is that this is the kind of game I believe in my black heart, deep down inside, that the Gophers always have and always will lose. I wish I didn't feel that way, but be honest - would you really be surprised?
Michigan 68, Minnesota 64.
But my entire Minnesota rooting life has conditioned me to expect the worst and I am nearly certain they will lose one of these two games. Will they win the "tougher" one and beat Michigan just to drop the "easy" game and the end of the schedule? Or will they just drop this first one here and put everyone out of their misery? Or is it possible, just possible, they'll ask win both games, as they should, and go into the Big Ten Tournament in good enough shape to justify consideration?
I don't know, I just don't, but this feels just like watching the Vikings/Saints all over again. You don't know why or how, but you just know things aren't going to go in your favore.
1. So how has Michigan done since their soul-crushing defeat of the Gophers? They followed up that win by winning at Iowa, and since have lost three straight: versus Penn State and Illinois and at Ohio State while failing to score more than fifty-five points in any game. They have continued to be terrible at scoring the basketball, and have shot 36% or less in all three games during the losing streak while continuing to be horrible at shooting the three-pointer, hitting a combined 17-76 (22%) in the three games while shooting them with the frequency of a drunk wrestler at open gym, taking 76 of them compared to just 40 by their opponents. In short, they're still bad.
2. Remind me again how the Gophers lost last time? Michigan actually scored the ball, hitting 50% from the field and 7-14 from three, with less reliance on the three-point shot because they were able to get the ball inside, leading to DeShawn Sims doing whatever he wanted and scoring 27 points. Not to mention that the Wolverines only turned it over eight times, and the future (and the now) of the Gophers, Devoe and Sampson, combined to score just eleven points on 3-12 shooting. You can read my live blog of the game here, but I have to warn you that by the end it just degenerated into me insulting the Gophers using British slang.
3. So are we still worried about Sims? Well, he followed up that monster game against the Gophers with another good one against Iowa (27 and 10), but since then has fallen back to earth. He's gone 10 and 8, 7 and 13, and 11 and 6 in the losing streak, and has hit on just 34% of his field goal attempts. The problem isn't even that he's fallen back in love with the three-point shot, which he has a tendency to do, since he took just three attempts in those three games. Since he started since slump, Ralphie has gone in the opposite direction, and even though he didn't put up impressive numbers against Illinois he is still showing more emotion and more aggressiveness. I think Ralph dominates Sims, so I'm not worried. I mean, I'm worried, but I'm not worried.
4. Any sneaky "key-to-the-game" type players for the Gophers this time around? I'm going with Paul Carter and, to a lesser extent, Rodney Williams. Michigan has a limited number of athletes, and when they're busy trying to check the Gophers' main guys, Carter and Williams should be able to have success getting inside. Especially Carter, who has been very good lately when given the playing time. In his last three games where he's played more than 10 minutes (Michigan, Northwestern, and Illinois) he's hit double-figures in scoring and grabbed at least 3 boards while hitting 13 of 18 shot attempts. Rodney had his second-best game in the Big Ten season against Illinois, going for 8 points and 6 rebounds, and could be finally breaking out - no better time than the present.
5. So do they stay alive for a bid? There really isn't any reason to believe Michigan is going to win this game. They are a bad, bad team, and the only Big Ten wins they have grabbed in Ann Arbor this year were against Iowa, Indiana, and Ohio State without Evan Turner. Of course, they also beat UCONN in Crisler. Even more of course, the beat the Gophers in Minneapolis. And the most of course of all, is that this is the kind of game I believe in my black heart, deep down inside, that the Gophers always have and always will lose. I wish I didn't feel that way, but be honest - would you really be surprised?
Michigan 68, Minnesota 64.
Week in Review - 3/1/2010
Well that was a pretty good win. Not good as in pretty, or good as in they finally figured out how to close out a game, but good as in that was a season saver. I can't really give you the usual brilliant, in-depth analysis you've come to expect because I was watching the game while at a beer bust, but I saw enough to know my prediction of a big gopher lead early, a gopher lead late, and a Illinois comeback and win damn near came true. That's not the important thing, however. The important thing is that they did get this win, and now are in ok shape for a tournament bid, even showing up on the "last four out" for Joe Lunardi. Win at Michigan and beat Iowa here, then win one big ten tournament game and it's very interesting.
If you just compare the Gophers and Illinois quick, they have basically the same record, although Illinois is two games better in conference play. The Gophers have the better RPI (70 to 74) and better Strength of Schedule (37 to 61). Both teams have two wins over top 25 RPI teams, while Illinois has a total of four over top 50 teams compared to just three for the Gophers and they have nearly identical records against the top 100. The Gophers have three bad losses (vs. teams over 100 in the RPI) while Illinois has two. The Gophers are 4-8 in road/neutral games, while Illinois is 6-8. The best win by either of the two teams goes to the Gophers with their win over Butler, and both team's have beaten Wisconsin.
I know the bids supposedly don't compare teams within the conference like this and look at the team's as an overall whole, but it's useful to know where the Gophers stand in comparison to the Illini. It also serves as a depressing reminder that if you reverse almost any loss on the Gopher schedule, they are ahead of Illinois, but as it stands right now they are probably slightly behind. In any case, it's time to win. There's no room for error.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Notre Dame. Bill Simmons' Ewing Theory in full effect? Seriously, has anybody has as impressive a week all year as Notre Dame had this week? They beat both Pitt and Georgetown, both by double-digits, and have gone from "probably out" to "probably in" all in a four day span - and they've done it without Luke Harangody. Since he's been out it's just been a bunch of role-players just used to deferring to him, but maybe we're finding out they aren't role players (even if Tory Jackson has the decision-making skills of a rock). Ben Hansbrough has stepped up his scoring since Harangody went out, averaging 15 per game (compared to 12), but the guy who has really helped out is junior forward Carleton Scott, who is averaging 9.3 points and 6.3 rebounds per game since the injury compared to 3.5 of each beforehand. Basically the Irish have played really well since Luke went down, and now find themselves in good shape for an NCAA bid. Which means he'll come back next week, they'll lose two, bow out early in the Big East tournament, and find themselves in the NIT again.
2. Syracuse. Wow. And also, wow. What an impressive victory over Villanova, the alleged #8 team in the land. The Orange smoked Scottie Reynolds and the rest of those dorks 95-77 which followed up their road win earlier in the week over Providence. To go out and annihilate another top ten team like the Wildcats is impressive, and I'm starting to think the Orange are the team to beat in March. I was pretty clearly wrong about Wes Johnson, who is an absolute stud, and I think Andy Rautins used my criticism of him from last year as a motivational tool because he's somehow become a top flight point guard and he's not even a point guard. I was talking to a friend who is a Syracuse alum, and he said that this isn't the Cuse's most talented team, but it is their best. He said usually they have a focal point guy who a lot of times undermines the whole team concept - it worked with Carmelo, didn't with Donte Greene - but this year it's just seven guys who have bought in to the team concept. Really good team. Right now, they're probably my #1.
3. New Mexico. If you kind of thought New Mexico wasn't anything special and just kept rising in the polls because they were basically just chillin' in the Mountain West, you aren't alone. If you still think that, you're an idiot. The Lobos put the word out that they are the real deal, going into Provo and beat BYU 83-81, the Cougars first home loss this year and one of only a handful the last few years. The win clinches at least a tie for the MWC crown for the Lobos, and brings New Mexico to 6-0 this year against ranked teams. That's right, 6-0. They've beaten BYU twice, UNLV, Cal, Texas Tech, and Texas A&M, and also have wins over decent teams like Dayton, Louisiana Tech, and New Mexico State. Three of this team's top four players are of the 6-5 to 6-8 athletic wing types, and the other dude gives them the strong and experience point play you need in March. This team is a threat.
4. Marquette. Now this is how a bubble team is supposed to respond to a challenge in late March. Marquette was probably right in the middle of the bubble, but with two wins this week, both on the road, both in overtime, and one over fellow bubble team Seton Hall, they're probably in for sure. First, the Eagles beat St. John's in their place 63-61 on a Jimmy Butler jumper as time expired in overtime, and then they went to Seton Hall and knocked the Pirates out of NCAA contention 84-83. I didn't expect much out of Marquette this year, not after losing three starting guards who were basically the whole team, but Lazar Hayward has gotten even better and Butler and Darius Johnson-Odom are very good players. And Marquette is probably better than the 19-9 record would indicate. Other than an inexplicable loss to DePaul and an early season loss to NC State every loss on the record has been by single-digits to an NCAA-caliber team.
5. Tay Waller. I know you don't know who this is, but that's why I'm here, to be nerdy enough about college hoops to know who people like Tay Waller are. And also he's on my fantasy team, which has now made the finals. Anyway, Waller had a big week but you won't hear about because he plays for crappy Auburn. The 6-2 senior guard for the Tigers was a top 10 JuCo player back in 2008 coming out of NW Florida Community College, and after being pretty solid for his year and three-quarters (way better than Bostick) he's really hit his stride, scoring more than 26 in each of Auburn's last three games, scoring 29 against Ole Miss in a loss and then 26 to lead the Tigers to a win over LSU this week. He's not on any NBA radars or anything, but he'll probably end up making a nice living overseas, and he deserves to be recognized even if he plays for the shitbox that is the Auburn Tigers. Plus, he probably gets to roll around with broads like these all the time.
WHO SUCKED
1. Wake Forest. Probably the worst week any team has had in the history of basketball. No joke. The Demon Deacons started off the week by losing at ACC bottom-feeder North Carolina State, and then followed that up by getting embarrassed at home by the embarrassing Carolina Tar Heels. To put this in Big Ten terms, that would be like losing at Indiana and then losing at home to Michigan. [NOTE: I just realized what I did there. hahahahahahahahahaha kill me.] And I had the misfortune to watch a good chunk of that Carolina game, and holy crap is Wake awful. I've never seen a team play so lazily and selfishly all at the same time. It was like watching five Westbrooks. I refuse to believe this team is 8-6 in the ACC, and was 8-3 at one point. This is a first-round upset waiting to happen, I don't care if they draw Bethune-Cookman in round one.
2. John Wall. Has the phenom hit the proverbial wall? His raw numbers are ok - 12 pts, 5 rebounds, 4 assists in a 20-point win over South Carolina and 19-5-6 in the loss to Tennessee, but if you look deeper he had a pretty sub-par week. He shot just 10-31 overall and was 0-7 from three-point range, and he turned the ball over 11 times in the two games - yes, that's more turnovers than field goals made this week. And although he has always been a bit of a turnover machine (averaging 4.0 per game) his shooting is what would really concern me - he hasn't shot better than 50% in a game since February 2nd. Maybe it's just a simple fluctuation of his numbers, but if I was a Kentucky fan I'd be pretty concerned that he seems to be struggling a bit at this time of the year. In any case, there's no way a team this young (three of the top four players are freshmen) and this volatile (both Cousins and Wall are crazy) with that coach is going to the final four. You go ahead and pick them there, but they're going to get knocked off by some seven seed. Just watch.
3. Virginia Tech. When your hopes for an at-large bid are best described as "little margin for error and only in decent shape because of an impressive ACC record" one thing you really shouldn't do is go out the next week and drop two ACC games - one at home (to Maryland) and one to a bottom-tier team (Boston College). The Hokies are still 21-7 overall and 8-6 in conference play, but there's not a whole lot to be impressed with. They have a win over Clemson, one over Wake, and a non-conference win over Seton Hall, and that's it. Everything else is against a bottom tier team. I don't know what to think about their chances, they're a super confusing team. You could make a pretty good argument spanning anywhere from "they should be easily in" to "they have no chance." Take your pick.
4. The Atlantic 10. Going into this week there were seven teams in the A-10 that had a shot at getting an at-large bid to the tournament, but things are not breaking the right way and it's starting to look more and more likely that the conference will end up with three teams going (Temple, Xavier, and Richmond are all basically locks). Dayton is probably fourth on the list, but at 8-6 in the conference might not have enough juice, and they had a huge chance to knock of Temple this week and whiffed. Another team that had a chance at a big upset and missed out was St. Louis, who has a nice 10-4 conference record but is lacking big wins, which makes their loss to Xavier this week even more damaging. Charlotte and Rhode Island both looked to have an inside track at a bid earlier this year, but both have faded coming down the stretch and both knocked themselves out of bid contention with losses they couldn't have this weekend - Charlotte lost to George Washington, Rhode Island to St. Bonaventure. So the A-10 will likely have just three teams dancing, maybe four if Dayton gets it together, which isn't bad, but isn't as lofty as it could have been. Also, Richmond and Temple are going down quickly, Xavier is the only team here that can make a run. Mark it down.
5. Purdue. Ruh roh. You kind of had to wonder just how the Boilers would respond with Robbie Hummel out. They still have E'Twaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson which still gives them one of the better 1-2 punches in the country, but Hummel was kind of the glue guy, along with being a top scorer. They certainly didn't have any time to ease into, welcoming Michigan State to Keady Court right off the bat, and the results weren't pretty. The only managed 44 points, shot just 30%, and were out-rebounded 44-16 as the Spartans won 53-44. Yes by the way, those numbers are correct they were out-rebounded 44-16. I think they'll end up being a lot better without Hummel than they showed on Sunday, and they have games against Penn State and Indiana this coming week to work on some things, but this has to be a pretty big concern for Boiler Nation.
I guess there was also some kind of big whoopity-doo hockey game between the Americans and the Commies or something, but I didn't really pay attention. I heard the commies won, so I expect Canada to start taking over Red Dawn style anytime now. WOLVERINES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (but not on Tuesday)
BUBBLE GAMES OF NOTE:
Fresno State @ Utah State. I've written about them before, but the beat rolls on. USU needs to win and keep winning. Even at 23-6 they can't really afford a loss because, outside of a win over BYU, there's not much there in the non-conference profile. They would probably be ok if they lost in the WAC final to either New Mexico State or Louisiana Tech, but any loss short of that will keep likely knock them out of at-large consideration
If you just compare the Gophers and Illinois quick, they have basically the same record, although Illinois is two games better in conference play. The Gophers have the better RPI (70 to 74) and better Strength of Schedule (37 to 61). Both teams have two wins over top 25 RPI teams, while Illinois has a total of four over top 50 teams compared to just three for the Gophers and they have nearly identical records against the top 100. The Gophers have three bad losses (vs. teams over 100 in the RPI) while Illinois has two. The Gophers are 4-8 in road/neutral games, while Illinois is 6-8. The best win by either of the two teams goes to the Gophers with their win over Butler, and both team's have beaten Wisconsin.
I know the bids supposedly don't compare teams within the conference like this and look at the team's as an overall whole, but it's useful to know where the Gophers stand in comparison to the Illini. It also serves as a depressing reminder that if you reverse almost any loss on the Gopher schedule, they are ahead of Illinois, but as it stands right now they are probably slightly behind. In any case, it's time to win. There's no room for error.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Notre Dame. Bill Simmons' Ewing Theory in full effect? Seriously, has anybody has as impressive a week all year as Notre Dame had this week? They beat both Pitt and Georgetown, both by double-digits, and have gone from "probably out" to "probably in" all in a four day span - and they've done it without Luke Harangody. Since he's been out it's just been a bunch of role-players just used to deferring to him, but maybe we're finding out they aren't role players (even if Tory Jackson has the decision-making skills of a rock). Ben Hansbrough has stepped up his scoring since Harangody went out, averaging 15 per game (compared to 12), but the guy who has really helped out is junior forward Carleton Scott, who is averaging 9.3 points and 6.3 rebounds per game since the injury compared to 3.5 of each beforehand. Basically the Irish have played really well since Luke went down, and now find themselves in good shape for an NCAA bid. Which means he'll come back next week, they'll lose two, bow out early in the Big East tournament, and find themselves in the NIT again.
2. Syracuse. Wow. And also, wow. What an impressive victory over Villanova, the alleged #8 team in the land. The Orange smoked Scottie Reynolds and the rest of those dorks 95-77 which followed up their road win earlier in the week over Providence. To go out and annihilate another top ten team like the Wildcats is impressive, and I'm starting to think the Orange are the team to beat in March. I was pretty clearly wrong about Wes Johnson, who is an absolute stud, and I think Andy Rautins used my criticism of him from last year as a motivational tool because he's somehow become a top flight point guard and he's not even a point guard. I was talking to a friend who is a Syracuse alum, and he said that this isn't the Cuse's most talented team, but it is their best. He said usually they have a focal point guy who a lot of times undermines the whole team concept - it worked with Carmelo, didn't with Donte Greene - but this year it's just seven guys who have bought in to the team concept. Really good team. Right now, they're probably my #1.
3. New Mexico. If you kind of thought New Mexico wasn't anything special and just kept rising in the polls because they were basically just chillin' in the Mountain West, you aren't alone. If you still think that, you're an idiot. The Lobos put the word out that they are the real deal, going into Provo and beat BYU 83-81, the Cougars first home loss this year and one of only a handful the last few years. The win clinches at least a tie for the MWC crown for the Lobos, and brings New Mexico to 6-0 this year against ranked teams. That's right, 6-0. They've beaten BYU twice, UNLV, Cal, Texas Tech, and Texas A&M, and also have wins over decent teams like Dayton, Louisiana Tech, and New Mexico State. Three of this team's top four players are of the 6-5 to 6-8 athletic wing types, and the other dude gives them the strong and experience point play you need in March. This team is a threat.
4. Marquette. Now this is how a bubble team is supposed to respond to a challenge in late March. Marquette was probably right in the middle of the bubble, but with two wins this week, both on the road, both in overtime, and one over fellow bubble team Seton Hall, they're probably in for sure. First, the Eagles beat St. John's in their place 63-61 on a Jimmy Butler jumper as time expired in overtime, and then they went to Seton Hall and knocked the Pirates out of NCAA contention 84-83. I didn't expect much out of Marquette this year, not after losing three starting guards who were basically the whole team, but Lazar Hayward has gotten even better and Butler and Darius Johnson-Odom are very good players. And Marquette is probably better than the 19-9 record would indicate. Other than an inexplicable loss to DePaul and an early season loss to NC State every loss on the record has been by single-digits to an NCAA-caliber team.
5. Tay Waller. I know you don't know who this is, but that's why I'm here, to be nerdy enough about college hoops to know who people like Tay Waller are. And also he's on my fantasy team, which has now made the finals. Anyway, Waller had a big week but you won't hear about because he plays for crappy Auburn. The 6-2 senior guard for the Tigers was a top 10 JuCo player back in 2008 coming out of NW Florida Community College, and after being pretty solid for his year and three-quarters (way better than Bostick) he's really hit his stride, scoring more than 26 in each of Auburn's last three games, scoring 29 against Ole Miss in a loss and then 26 to lead the Tigers to a win over LSU this week. He's not on any NBA radars or anything, but he'll probably end up making a nice living overseas, and he deserves to be recognized even if he plays for the shitbox that is the Auburn Tigers. Plus, he probably gets to roll around with broads like these all the time.
WHO SUCKED
1. Wake Forest. Probably the worst week any team has had in the history of basketball. No joke. The Demon Deacons started off the week by losing at ACC bottom-feeder North Carolina State, and then followed that up by getting embarrassed at home by the embarrassing Carolina Tar Heels. To put this in Big Ten terms, that would be like losing at Indiana and then losing at home to Michigan. [NOTE: I just realized what I did there. hahahahahahahahahaha kill me.] And I had the misfortune to watch a good chunk of that Carolina game, and holy crap is Wake awful. I've never seen a team play so lazily and selfishly all at the same time. It was like watching five Westbrooks. I refuse to believe this team is 8-6 in the ACC, and was 8-3 at one point. This is a first-round upset waiting to happen, I don't care if they draw Bethune-Cookman in round one.
2. John Wall. Has the phenom hit the proverbial wall? His raw numbers are ok - 12 pts, 5 rebounds, 4 assists in a 20-point win over South Carolina and 19-5-6 in the loss to Tennessee, but if you look deeper he had a pretty sub-par week. He shot just 10-31 overall and was 0-7 from three-point range, and he turned the ball over 11 times in the two games - yes, that's more turnovers than field goals made this week. And although he has always been a bit of a turnover machine (averaging 4.0 per game) his shooting is what would really concern me - he hasn't shot better than 50% in a game since February 2nd. Maybe it's just a simple fluctuation of his numbers, but if I was a Kentucky fan I'd be pretty concerned that he seems to be struggling a bit at this time of the year. In any case, there's no way a team this young (three of the top four players are freshmen) and this volatile (both Cousins and Wall are crazy) with that coach is going to the final four. You go ahead and pick them there, but they're going to get knocked off by some seven seed. Just watch.
3. Virginia Tech. When your hopes for an at-large bid are best described as "little margin for error and only in decent shape because of an impressive ACC record" one thing you really shouldn't do is go out the next week and drop two ACC games - one at home (to Maryland) and one to a bottom-tier team (Boston College). The Hokies are still 21-7 overall and 8-6 in conference play, but there's not a whole lot to be impressed with. They have a win over Clemson, one over Wake, and a non-conference win over Seton Hall, and that's it. Everything else is against a bottom tier team. I don't know what to think about their chances, they're a super confusing team. You could make a pretty good argument spanning anywhere from "they should be easily in" to "they have no chance." Take your pick.
4. The Atlantic 10. Going into this week there were seven teams in the A-10 that had a shot at getting an at-large bid to the tournament, but things are not breaking the right way and it's starting to look more and more likely that the conference will end up with three teams going (Temple, Xavier, and Richmond are all basically locks). Dayton is probably fourth on the list, but at 8-6 in the conference might not have enough juice, and they had a huge chance to knock of Temple this week and whiffed. Another team that had a chance at a big upset and missed out was St. Louis, who has a nice 10-4 conference record but is lacking big wins, which makes their loss to Xavier this week even more damaging. Charlotte and Rhode Island both looked to have an inside track at a bid earlier this year, but both have faded coming down the stretch and both knocked themselves out of bid contention with losses they couldn't have this weekend - Charlotte lost to George Washington, Rhode Island to St. Bonaventure. So the A-10 will likely have just three teams dancing, maybe four if Dayton gets it together, which isn't bad, but isn't as lofty as it could have been. Also, Richmond and Temple are going down quickly, Xavier is the only team here that can make a run. Mark it down.
5. Purdue. Ruh roh. You kind of had to wonder just how the Boilers would respond with Robbie Hummel out. They still have E'Twaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson which still gives them one of the better 1-2 punches in the country, but Hummel was kind of the glue guy, along with being a top scorer. They certainly didn't have any time to ease into, welcoming Michigan State to Keady Court right off the bat, and the results weren't pretty. The only managed 44 points, shot just 30%, and were out-rebounded 44-16 as the Spartans won 53-44. Yes by the way, those numbers are correct they were out-rebounded 44-16. I think they'll end up being a lot better without Hummel than they showed on Sunday, and they have games against Penn State and Indiana this coming week to work on some things, but this has to be a pretty big concern for Boiler Nation.
I guess there was also some kind of big whoopity-doo hockey game between the Americans and the Commies or something, but I didn't really pay attention. I heard the commies won, so I expect Canada to start taking over Red Dawn style anytime now. WOLVERINES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (but not on Tuesday)
BUBBLE GAMES OF NOTE:
Fresno State @ Utah State. I've written about them before, but the beat rolls on. USU needs to win and keep winning. Even at 23-6 they can't really afford a loss because, outside of a win over BYU, there's not much there in the non-conference profile. They would probably be ok if they lost in the WAC final to either New Mexico State or Louisiana Tech, but any loss short of that will keep likely knock them out of at-large consideration
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