Gophers play Virginia Tech or something I don't care

I have to be honest with yous guys, I'm having a little trouble getting motivated to writing up a preview of Wednesday's game versus the Hokies.  It's just such a kick in the cubes to have Mbakwe go down for the year.  I don't even know if my adjusted goal of an NIT bid is a ridiculously unreachable goal at this point.  I just don't know.  I suppose I could just talk about Virginia Tech a bit.  I suppose that could do it.  If you're looking for Mbakwe/Gopher-related thoughts, here's what I wrote after the injury.

Virginia Tech is in the rare position of having lost their best player from last season and actually becoming a better team because they can now run an offense besides, "Jesus christ Delaney will you give the ball to somebody else!"  They also lost their best post player in Jeff Allen, who averaged nearly a double-double last year, but of course that would be a bigger deal except for the fact that your precious god hates me and Minnesota sports in general and struck down our hercules with a lightning bolt or something.  I don't know shut up.  I'm grieving.

Anyway, Virginia Tech comes in at 5-1 with a win over Oklahoma State and their only loss to Syracuse, and they're doing because the guys who were supposed to take steps forward did so and their much heralded freshman class (#12 according to ESPN) is living up to the billing.  They're actually a pretty fun team to watch outside of their coach Seth Greenberg who's a giant bag of dicks because their sort of built in that all swingman mold - the majority of the team is between 6-3 and 6-9, athletic, and skilled enough to handle the ball or play in the paint.

Erick Green and Dorenzo Hudson are the team's two leading scorers (14.8 and 14.3 per game) and although nearly is what you'd call a true point (although Green is closer), but both can handle the ball and run the offense.  Both are more penetrators than pure shooters, though both can hit the open three ball when it's made available, and both are lock-down defenders.  All of which means the Gopher guards are going to have their hands absolutely and completely full all night long.  Jarrell Eddie, whose name I'm pretty sure is all backwards, is the third starter out on the wing and the teams third leading scorer at 8.8 per game.  He's a big wing (6-7) who can rebound (4.2 per game) and handle the ball (2-1 A-to-TO ratio), and another who can hit the three but doesn't depend on it.  I really hate this back court.

Up front is where the Gophers could have done some damage if the world wasn't just one gigantic F-U.  Victor Davila starts at PF or C depending on how you want to define it and one of the few guys on this team who is basically locked into one position.  At 6-8, 242 he is one of the few guys who might have been able to handle the Mbakwe/Sampson tandem which obviously is a mute point now.  Davila is not spectacular and just kind of goes about his business, but that could be because the guy who starts next to him, freshman Dorrian Finney-Smith brings about the kind of unstated spectacularity that you might not even realize is there until you look at the stat sheet.  He's not a big-time scorer yet (just 8 per game), but at 10.3 rebounds per game and 3.3 assists (leads the team despite being 6-8) he's obviously one of those guys who can really play the game but who is just waiting for his offensive game to catch up to the rest of what he can do.  He's struggled with his shot so far (.378 shooting percentage) but eventually he's going to figure it out and rip someone's spine out like he was Sub-Zero performing a Murder Death Kill.  I hope it's not the Gophers, although their heart was already ripped out so what's another body part?

Coming off the bench is some talent as well - freshman guard Robert Brown is the team's third leading scorer, sophomore Cadarian Raines gives the team some size coming off the bench, and combo forward C.J. Barksdale is a big time recruit who is athletic and a bit raw, but the team relies pretty heavily on its starting five and Brown (Green, Finney-Smith, and Hudson all average at least 31 minutes per game and Brown is the only bench player to average over 14) so that's who you need to worry about.  A bunch of long, athletic wing types who play shut down defense, rebound well, and can score a variety of ways.  Great.  Can't wait.

As far as team style goes, the Hokies play slow, but play efficiently by moving the ball for open shots.  They are a good three-point shooting team (40% for the season), but don't rely on it because they have guards who can get into the paint.  Based on Minnesota's performance in Orlando I expect Virginia Tech to do everything they can to get the ball to their guards while they're moving and in position to turn the corner on the defender and get into the paint, drawing help and the kicking it to the open man either for a three pointer or a short jumper or lay-up.  Actually I expect every team to try that since the Gophers can't defend it so far, but Va Tech is built for success using that exact strategy.  Defensively, Va Tech is outstanding defending the three - which the Gophers don't bother with anyway - but are also excellent at defending the two pointer and blocking shots.

Honestly maybe it's just my natural pessimism setting in after Mbakwe's injury after a small period of denial/optimism, but this is an absolutely terrible opponent for the Gophers right now.  The guards are going to get murdered on both ends by the Hokies's perimeter guys, and Va Tech's inside play isn't bad enough for Ralph to take advantage without Mbakwe there to help out.  Barring a miracle, this isn't going to be close - which is a shame, because the Gophers are favored by three if Trevor's there. 

Virginia Tech 77, Minnesota 62.  And let the doomsaying begin.  For once I won't be part of it, because this injury kills this season, and would for any team and any coach.  God damn Dayton.  They ruin everything.  Now if you'll excuse me I'm going to go listen to this mix CD I made that is nothing but Coldplay, Dido, and that Time of Your Life song by Greenday.

You know what I think's under that sweatshirt?  Nothing.

NCAA Hoops Preview - The ACC

As much as the idea of Syracuse not being in the Big East kind of churns my stomach, the upside that at least there will be a team in the conference capable of challenging UNC and Duke once in a while.  I know they've traditionally been the best 2 teams, but things have just been ridiculous lately and might be topping (bottoming) out this year because nearly ever team has been killed by graduations and can't reload like those two nancies, so Duke and UNC are Final Four contenders at the same time you can't definitively point to any other ACC squad and say "that's a tournament team."

So I guess there's that.

1.  NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS.  For most teams losing a guy like Leslie McDonald for the season to a knee injury would be a big blow, but not this year's Heels.  That is basically the only loss they suffered from their roster.  Harrison Barnes, last year's #2 recruit and potential top 3 pick in the NBA draft last year, decided to return for another year of seasoning and, after a rough start to his career, began to flourish at the end, scoring 18+ points in 9 of the team's last 10 games.  Tyler Zeller is still there and his offensive game is really turning into a thing of beauty, and the defense of John Henson will be there as well to block more shots than jesus.  They also have their point guard back in Kendall Marshall, who is already turning into one of the best PGs in UNC History (although nobody will ever be better than Ed Cota).  In case you want more, they also bring in a couple of new studs in F James McAdoo (#8 by Rivals) and P.J. Hairston (#13 and called the best shooter in this class), and have a bunch of other former top recruit types from the last couple of years who I haven't even mentioned.  Yes, they're loaded.  There's a reason why they're 3-1 to win the whole thing (sucker bet).

2.  DUKE BLUE DEVILS.  Kyrie Irving, Kyle Singler, and Nolan Smith is a huge amount of production and talent to lose, but you know the drill - unfortunately for every one who doesn't worship Satan, they just replace talent with talent are look to once again be one of the best teams in the nation.  That isn't to say they won't have some weaknesses, however, because I refuse to believe that no matter how many Plumlees you have (and Duke is now up to 3) those aren't the type of bigs who are going to take you to a National Championship.  Not counting, of course, the one they won 2 years ago, but that was really all Brian Zoubek.  The three most interesting story lines to me are whether or not Seth Curry can be a team player and not end up a massive chuck monster like his brother, whether or not Austin Rivers (#1 freshman in the country) can integrate himself into a real (and good) team when his whole high school career has been him having to score 40 to carry a lackluster supporting cast, and just how gay is Duke, anyway?

3.  MIAMI HURRICANES.  The Canes are one of the few teams that were not hit hard by graduations/defections and return a couple of dynamic guards in Durand Scott and Malcolm Grant along with double-double machine Reggie Johnson who pretty much destroyed Duke last year since those pansies can't handle big, strong post players.  And I'm sure you remember Scott and Grant, seeing as how they combined for 36 points against the Gophers two seasons ago in Florida completing the teams 3-game collapse after faltering in Anaheim and completely buzzkilling all the good feelings after they beat Butler.  Yeah, I hate Miami.

4.  VIRGINIA CAVALIERS.  Mike Scott and his 16 and 10 averages are back after red-shirting last year due to an injury, and I like their plan of going with Scott and spreading a bunch of shooters out on the floor.  And no, it's not just because Virginia shot 10-13 from three last year to kill the Gophers, they legitimately have some good shooters (Joe Harris, K.T. Harrell, and Sammy Zeglinski can all shoot it and both incoming freshmen can hit from outside) and Mike Scott is a legitimate beast.  Overall Virginia was 19th in the country in 3-pt percentage and 23rd in % of points coming from behind the line, and that was with Scott only around for 10 games.  I don't know.  Maybe it is my memories of that game coloring my opinion, but I see the Cavs as a dangerous team this year.

5.  FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES.  FSU is likely a near guarantee for an NCAA bid because their defense is always so good it's unlikely they'll completely implode, but you can't quite trust them because they are never offensively a good team and this year they don't have a real PG.  They didn't last year either and things worked out, but last year they had Chris Singleton (most of the year) and Derwin Kitchen, both of whom could actually score once in a while and both of whom are gone.  You know the defense will be there and you know they'll probably beat either UNC or Duke in Tallahassee, but it will be up to the offense whether this is a good team or a very good team.  They're bringing in three top 150 recruits, all of whom are supposedly offensive players, so if any of them can get going right away that'll be a big boost.  Remember the name Antwan Space.  Just do it.

6.  CLEMSON TIGERS.  Not unlike the Seminoles, Clemson was hit hard by graduation, losing Demontez Stitt (leading scorer and assist man) and Jerai Grant (second leading scorer and leading rebounder) but they are such a solid defensive squad under Brad Brownell that they'll still be in the hunt for an NCAA bid, although at this point in the ACC most of these teams could finish anywhere from 5th to 10th.  Still, the Tigers will have some talent including Devin Booker, the younger brother of former Clemson All-ACC performer Trevor.  He hasn't quite made the same splash that Trevor did in his first two years, but the potential is probably there I'd assume.  And speaking of potential, they actually have a McDonald's All-American on their roster in Milton Jennings.  He managed 4 double-doubles last season, which makes Trevor Mbakwe laugh, but he could end up being the x-factor for Clemson.  Whatever that means.  I don't know, I'm just typing, man.

7.  VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES.  The Hokies have a couple huge holes to fill, losing both Malcolm Delaney and Jeff Allen who basically did everything for them.  Fortunately, the have plenty of options to fill those holes, including two other returning double-digit scorers and a nice big recruiting class that includes some likely future stars - PF C.J. Barksdale, SG Robert Brown, and SF Dorian Finney-Smith are all top 100 on Rivals list with Finney-Smith topping the list at #31.  So yeah, there are some big losses for the Hokies, but they might end up better in the long run.  They had some serious choke jobs the last couple of years, and Delaney was a big part - mainly because he wanted the ball and everybody knew he was getting the ball.  Perhaps a little balance could work in V-Tech's favor?  Whatever it takes so we don't have to listen to Seth Greenberg whine about the selection committee again.  My least favorite spring ritual.

8.  NC STATE WOLFPACK.  Losing Tracy Smith is tough, but losing both your point guards - including emerging star Ryan Harrow (who transferred to Kentucky after the coaching change from Lowe to Gottfried) is going to be tougher.  State still has one of the most exciting players in the conference in PF C.J. Leslie, who was the #14 recruit in the nation his freshman year and averaged 11 & 7, along with a couple of other nice players in SG Lorenzo Brown (#37 last year) and dead-eye shooter Scott Wood so they'll be middle of the road with some chances to surprise people.  If Brown can handle the point - or incoming CS-Bakersfield transfer guy can - they could finish significantly higher than this.  I really love me some C.J. Leslie.

9.  GEORGIA TECH YELLOW JACKETS.  Do you think Glen Rice Jr. might have to look at a picture or two of Sarah Palin when Tech travels to Cameron or the Dean Dome or really anywhere?  Hopefully for them he'll be able to block it out, because he's going to be the main offensive weapon on this team and has the talent and situation to potentially blossom into an All-ACC type of player, particularly with Iman Shumpert leaving for the NBA and Brian Oliver transferring to Seton Hall.  Maybe the best news for Tech, however, is that Paul Hewitt is finally gone because even though he was a hell of a recruiter the guy was routinely out coached and over matched.  Brian Gregory turned the garbage dumpster of Dayton into something reasonably mediocre and Tech is a much better program so he'll likely have them turned around sooner rather than later.

10.  MARYLAND TERRAPINS.  Yet another team that got hit hard by graduation, not only did Maryland lose a ton off last year's team but when Gary Williams decided to quit coaching an a pretty inopportune time like some kind of sweaty rhinoceros he didn't do the team any favors because most of the recruits he'd signed, and there were some good ones, jumped ship.  They did manage to hold on to Nick Faust, a hometown kid who is a very good player (#48 rivals) and will make this team's strength - the back court - even stronger.  The biggest questions will be on the interior.  With the beast that was Jordan Williams and his double-double average off to the NBA and no notable additions with size, they'll have to turn to unproven upperclassmen to play in the paint.  That always works well.

11.  WAKE FOREST DEMON DEACONS.  Wake might have been the worst major conference team in 300 years last season, so they can only get better.  You'd think.  Unfortunately lack of talent continues to meet up with knuckleheadism, with former top 100 recruit J.T. Terrell leaving the team after getting arrested for a DWI and fellow top 100 recruit Melvin Tabb currently suspended indefinitely for some ambiguous reason.  The one big bright spot is SF Travis McKie who led the team in both scoring and rebounding last season.  And this is where I'd write a sentence to tie all of that together, but every time I tried to watch a Wake game last year they were losing by 25 in the first half so I didn't really pay all that much attention.   

12.  BOSTON COLLEGE EAGLES.  I don't know that I've ever seen something this dramatic, and it's hard to believe in this conference this year, but the Eagles come into this season with 92% of last year's scoring gone.  92%, yo.  That means I got a 92% chance of embarrassing myself.  I'll roll up on some shorty and be like "whats' up, yo" and she'll be like, "you don't know 20 ways to make me call you big poppa" because I don't, yo.  I just typed that from memory so it might not be dead on but it's definitely close.  Anyway, BC has 9 freshmen this year and I've never heard of any of them and they aren't on any lists so let's be honest, the quote was a much better use of our time.

Other Previews:
Big 12

Week in Review - 03.07.2011

I can't think of a single relevant thing to say about Gopher basketball right now, other than this is easily the most disappointing season I can recall - period.  Injuries played a part and so did a couple big defections, no doubt, but even with what was left and based on the start to the year this team should have been able to get a bid into the NCAA Tournament.  At this point the NIT even looks shaky.  What's more prestigious, the CBI or the CIT?  Let's just move on.  Lots of good basketball going on.

WHO WAS AWESOME

1.  Belmont Bruins.  Yes!  I know Coastal Carolina lost to Asheville so they won't be in the tournament, but they were just the second most interesting small college in play - Belmont was #1.  I mentioned it in my conference tournament preview, but I don't think anyone actually reads those so I'll mention it here - Belmont is ranked as the 20th best team in the country by kenpom.com.  It's all math and there's no eye test involved here so Belmont jumps up because of it's complete domination of the Atlantic Sun (30-4, average margin of victory around 25 points), but it's intriguing just because of how bizarre it is.  For reference, last year's top non-major or mid-major team was Murray State who was ranked at #50.  The year prior it was Siena at #59.  Teams like Belmont are never ranked that high, and I'm intrigued.  They played three good teams this year (Vandy - lost by 9 and Tennessee twice - lost by 9 and by 1) so they don't have any real great wins, but I'm very, very excited to see what they can do in the first round.

2.  Jon Diebler.  As much as I hate to give credit to a guy with one skill, Deibler had a hell of a week shooting the basketball.  He was 10-12 from three in the Buckeyes 82-61 win over Penn State and then followed that up this weekend going 7-8 as they dismantled Wisconsin.  Ohio State is a dangerous team no matter what - maybe the best team in the nation - but when Diebler is on they're basically unstoppable.  Obviously nobody can keep up that level of shooting accuracy, but he won't need to.  If he can hit even 50% in the tournament they're going to be almost impossible to beat.  Can a team with only six players really win the national title?  I guess we'll find out.

3.  Virginia Commonwealth Rams.  I believe from what I've seen of VCU that they belong in the NCAA  Tournament, even if their resume maybe disagrees.  That's why it's awesome they beat George Mason in the Colonial semi-finals (the Patriots are in regardless), not only do they get a chance to play Old Dominion tonight for an auto bid, but even a loss might put them in thanks to the quality victory they picked up.  They're 22-10 and 13-6 in a very good CAA, with an RPI of 56 and a SoS of 99.  They have wins over UCLA, Wichita State, ODU, and now George Mason.  They do have a couple bad losses (Georgia State, South Florida) but in a year with a whole bunch of weak bubble teams they stick out to me.  It would serve them better, of course, just to beat the Monarchs again and get the auto bid, but I think they deserve to be regardless.  

4.  North Carolina Tar Heels.  Guess who is suddenly the hottest team in college ball?  Two hugely impressive wins this week (@ Florida State, vs. Duke) run their win streak to seven, and they're now 26-4 overall with an ACC record of 14-2, and are in line for a two seed.  Basically Harrison Barnes has figured it out (averaging 17 and 6 during the streak) and Kendall Marshall has really blossomed since Larry Drew departed (10 pts, 7.5 assists per game the last seven).  The Heels are suddenly looking really, really tough.  Makes me cry with anger that the Gophers beat them.  Why separate knob?!  Why separate knob?!!??!

5.  Notre Dame Fighting Irish.  I'm going to help you out with your bracket.  This is a guaranteed Elite 8 team.  I'd say Final Four, because I think they are, but I can't guarantee a win over Ohio State, Pitt, or Kansas.  Here's the important thing to remember though - they're upset proof.  Too smart, too good, too disciplined, and too balanced.  They aren't going to lose to a bad/mediocre team - they're just not.  And they just finished up the season on an 11-1 run through the Big East.  They very well might be the best team in the nation.  Go ahead and put them into your Elite 8 - in ink.  Guaranteed.


WHO SUCKED

1.  Virginia Tech Hokies.  Has any team every pissed away a huge win quicker than the Hokies did to their big victory over Duke?   That win gave them the signature win they needed desperately, and with just two games to play they looked to suddenly be in solid shape.  They had BC at home and then traveled to Clemson, two fellow bubble teams, needing to win just one in order to feel pretty confident in their chances to get a bid.  Of course because it's Va Tech, they couldn't just take care of business and lost both.  And they weren't close with BC beating them by 15 and Clemson by 9.  They lost to a mediocre BC at home by 15 in a must win game.  Yuck.  Now they likely have to win two in the ACC tournament to avoid just missing the NCAAs again.  But really, who cares?  If they get in over VCU I'm going to burn the whole system to the ground.

2.  Maryland Terrapins.  The Terps were sort of supposed to be a bit of an ACC sleeper this year, but that clearly never happened, and they couldn't have put more of an upside down exclamation point on their season than they did this week dropping games to both Miami and Virginia (both by 14) to drop to 7-9 in the conference and making damn sure nobody put them anywhere near any bubbles of any kind.  Just ugly.  Apparently Jordan Williams (16.9 points, 11.6 rebs per game) can't do it all, and you actually need guards of some kind in order to win.  I guess we maybe kind of saw some of that this year at Williams Arena.

3.  Baylor Bears.  There are a lot of disappointing teams out there this year:  Maryland, as mentioned.  The Gophers, who make me cry.  Michigan State, who might sneak into the tournament anyway, and plenty of others with NCAA bid aspirations who are going to fall short.  No team, however, was as bad as Baylor this year - a team with National Championship aspirations who isn't even going to make the tournament.  An elite 8 team last year losing just one key player but gaining a consensus top-5 in the nation freshman?  How could they lose?  Well, in every possible way, culminated by losing four of their final five including two this week, @ Oklahoma State and Texas at home.  One they couldn't lose and the other they needed to win, but of course neither happened.  The only good news about all this is that maybe we'll get a chance to see them in person at the Barn.  That's an NIT CBI game I would actually show up for.  

4.  Klay Thompson.  Let me see if I have this right.  You've just won a huge game over one of the better teams in your conference on the road, a big enough win that it takes your team from "no way is this an NCAA Tournament team" to "maybe this is an NCAA tournament team."  You have one game left against UCLA, one of the two best teams in your conference and a good enough team that if you beat them on the road you suddenly jump to "this is probably an NCAA tournament team."  Huge game.  Monster game.  You're also the best player on your team and it isn't even close.  So what do you do?  Get busted for marijuana possession ON YOUR WAY HOME FROM THE USC GAME.  Seriously?  Jesus Smokey, wait until you get to your hotel.  Suspended for the game, which Washington State lost in overtime.  Do you think Thompson, who averages 21-5-4 per game, would have made a difference in a tight one?  Nice work, Marley.

5.   Gopher basketball.  Just because I want to put them in here one last time.  Unfortunately there's nothing left to say.  I was impressed by Blake's transformation from one-trick pony to do it all everything guy, and nobody gave more to the team than him.  I loved watching Mbakwe's terror show in the paint, not since Courtney James have the Gophers had a power forward like him, and Trevor's even better.  I hope he's back for another year.  I liked what I saw from Chip Armelin - an incredible athlete with a drive to score.  On a team full of guys who wait for the game to come to them, he goes out and grabs it - a little over enthusiastically at times, but at least he does it.  And I though Maverick Ahanmisi showed he could end up being a decent back-up PG some day, which is far greater praise than I expected to be giving him.  And that's pretty much it.   I can't come up with any other positive words to say.  So I'll just stop.  For now.


Finally, a shout-out to the Optimator, who won our first ever Big Ten Fantasy College Basketball League, smoking Snacks in the Championship game.  His team of Jordan Taylor, Verdell Jones, Aaron Craft, JaJuan Johnson, and Jeff Brooks took it home.  Nice work, nerd.

Week in Review - 02.21.2011

Well, we're in crunch time now, eh?  All that cushion, all that certainty, all that "should be in" stuff that the Gophers built up with those good wins over UNC and West Virginia is now gone and we are into do or die time.  It shouldn't be too much of an issue, because the next four aren't exactly going against world beaters:  Michigan State and Michigan at home, at Northwestern, and then back home against Penn State.  Win three - and they should win three - and they'll be 9-9, which, when combined with their non-conference wins and computer numbers would probably get them in.  Win all four, which is possible, and they're guaranteed in.  But win just 2, and you'll need a nice run in the B10 tournament.  Any less than that, and then turn out the lights - but not at Williams, because we'll be seeing a home game or two for the prestigious NIT.  Really, it's in the teams' hands and in their control.  Win the games you're supposed to win and you're in.  That's it.  Simple, really.  Practically guaranteed.  The Gophers would never let me down.

WHO WAS AWESOME

1.  Purdue Boilermakers.  I think beating the two best teams in your conference qualifies as having a pretty awesome week, and they certainly made their case that they, not Wisconsin, should be considered the second best team in the Big Ten.  Really, though, it doesn't get much more impressive than beating two top 10 ranked teams and conference foes at that, even if they were at home.  E'Twaun Moore had some big-time struggles in mid-season but he's hit his stride big time, hitting for at least 19 in his last four games, capping it off with a career high 38 against Ohio State on Sunday, a game in which he hit 13 of 18 shots and basically dominated the #1 team in the country or whatever they were ranked.  This is a whole different team when he's on (JaJuan Johnson is always on) and they pretty emphatically answered the question, "Who has Purdue really beaten?"  Big Ten actually looking pretty good for possibly three Sweet 16 teams.  But probably zero.

2.  Jake Pullen.  There's little doubt who picked up the biggest win of the week, even if it was way back on Monday night and already feels like it happened a long time ago.  K-State was basically drifting aimlessly, having taken their preseason top 10 (top 5?) ranking and basically pissed it away thanks to complacency and a crazy amount of turnovers, but there's never been any doubt they were talented.  Thanks to Pullen, who scored 38 in that big win over Kansas and followed up with 27 more in a blowout win over Oklahoma, they may be making a late push towards an NCAA bid.  ESPN's bracketology had them as a 10 seed after they beat the Jayhawks, with some late success - like a home win over Mizzou - they could end up a 6 or so seed.  Talk about a dangerous 6 seed, wow.

3.  The Colonial Athletic Conference.  There were four big winners in Bracket Busters:  George Mason, Virginia Commonwealth, Old Dominion, and Utah State.  All four of those teams picked up a quality win, which means each of them moved that much closer to grabbed an at-large bid.  Notice anything three of those teams have in common?  Yep, GMU, VCU, and ODU are all members of the CAA, and they TCB ASAP FYI, and can probably now RSVP for NCAA MM, although if either of them go FUBAR and lose to an inferior opponent they'll probably drop to the wrong side of the bubble, but right now it's actually looking fairly likely that the CAA will end up with three bids.  That's awesome. 

4. Cincinnati Bearcats.  You know how it seems like the Big Ten teams who are right on the edge of getting a bid seem to just play like garbage (Illinois, Minnesota, Northwestern)?  Teams from the Big East apparently don't subscribe to that style of perpetual disappointment, and Cincy is the latest team from that conference to go from outside the bubble to inside with a very nice week.  First they beat Louisville at home, and in convincing fashion, and then they followed it up by winning a very tough trap game @ Providence, going into overtime before blowing the Friars out by 12.  That moves them to 8-6 now in conference play, and that's big because their last four games are all very tough (@G-Town, UCONN, @ Marquette, G-Town).  This sets them up where they only need to win one of the four to get in.  Still not easy by any means, but if they can't win at least one of those four they don't really deserve it anyway.

5.  NBA All-Star Game.  I'm just kidding, I'm not retarded enough to watch that crap.  

5.  Tu Holloway.  Even though it's pretty retarded to change your name from Terrell to Tu I love this guy anyway. He notched a triple-double on Saturday in a surprisingly competitive game against Fordham, tallying 26 points, 11 rebounds, and 10 assists.  And he did it with zero turnovers and 8-11 shooting from the floor.  That's ridiculous.  That has to be one of the most efficient games of all-time.  I assume there is someway to look that up, but I'm drunk and tired and I'm not going to do it.  Somebody do it for me.  That's what the comments are for.  Let's assume our lists is 1.  That Bill Walton game, 2.  That christian laettner game, and 3.  Holloway's triple-double.  What else?


WHO SUCKED


1.  St. Mary's Gaels.  If there was an award for most effective killing of your at-large chances in a single week, St. Mary's would stand an awful good chance at winning that award this year, and possibly even for the entire decade.  They started the week in "almost certainly in" status, lost to a terrible, terrible, terrible San Diego team which knocked them to "probably out" status, and then blew there big chance to jump back in, losing at home to Utah State.  With Gonzaga so down this year it's difficult for the Gaels to get quality wins and as of right now their early season win over St. John's is the only real impressive win on their resume.  If they can close with home wins over Gonzaga and Portland, two of the better teams in the league, they would end up at 14-2 in WCC play.  I would guess if they can then at least get to the final in the conference tournament that would probably get them in, but man, did they ever plummet down the S-curve.


2.  Virginia Tech Hokies.  Oopsies.  Honestly, as frustrating as it is to be a Gopher fan - and it's damn frustrating let me tell you what - being a Hokie fan would be a nightmare.  Two straight years of being just barely on the wrong side of the bubble due to softer than Ralph Sampson non-conference scheduling, followed this year by a much better schedule which resulted in losing nearly every meaningful non-conf game and now probably losing one too many conference games they really couldn't afford to lose after dropping a game to Virginia on Saturday.  That gives the Hokies five conference losses:  Virginia, Georgia Tech, BC, UNC, and Virginia - yes, they were swept by Virginia.  Take those two losses plus the GT loss and they're going to need to basically be perfect from here on.  Hopefully not though because their coach is a douche. 


3.  Missouri Valley Conference.  If the MVC wasn't already a one-bid league, it certainly is now as Bracket Busters was not kind to teams from the Valley.  Or, more accurately, teams from the Valley just plain sucked.  Northern Iowa, who needed a win to have a shot at a bid, lost to George Mason (at home).  Wichita State, who needed a win to have a shot at a bid, lost to VCU (at home).  Missouri State, who needed a win to have a shot at a bid, lost to Valpo.  Actually, nine MVC teams played in Bracket Busters this weekend and they managed just three total wins, none of which came from teams with post-season aspirations outside of a possible NIT berth.  Just a terrible showing overall.  This feels more like something the Twins would do.  Somehow.   

4.  Duquesne Dukes.  Oh Duquesne you're breaking my heart.  A surprisingly hot start in Atlantic 10 play had the Dukes at 8-0 and atop conference play, but even more exciting they were looking like a fringe bubble candidate for an at-large bid.  It would be their first appearance since 1977 and behind a potent offense and a stingy defense they looked legit.  Of course, they did nothing in non-conference play so their margin of error was small, and it's now non-existent after they lost to American's most hated team, the Dayton Flyers, a game they led by six late before letting the evil Flyers go on a 10-0 run.  That's now the Dukes third loss in four games with Xavier being the only loss that didn't hurt.  Now Duquesne will need to win the A-10 tournament to make a bid.  I'm sure that will happen.

5.  Baylor Bears.  Well that ought to do it.  Although you could definitely argue that Michigan State or Kansas State are the most disappointing teams this season they are both still alive for an NCAA Tournament berth.  The same can't be said for Baylor anymore, who completely what can only be described as a four-month long dump on their own shoes by losing by 9 to Texas Tech.  AT HOME.  That's Texas Tech, record 12-15, Big 12 record 4-8, and RPI 139.  That's unforgivable.  Although that actually might not even be Baylor's worst loss this year, because they also dropped games to Oklahoma (12-13 (4-8), #132) and Iowa State (14-13 (1-11), #147.  Any one of those losses would be enough to cast a pretty big shadow on their chances in March.  Combine the three, and they're cooked.  Looks like I was right that their 30-1 number to win the championship was way off.  Just turns out I was wrong in the wrong direction.


I didn't have room for him here because too many teams shit the bed this week, but I also want to point out that Durrell Summers shot all of 1-8 this entire week (two games), mainly because in their game against Ohio State he was so bad he only played 16 minutes and in the game against Illinois he shot 1-7.  He should probably just quit and transfer.  I hear Ames is quite nice.

Want to know what else sucks?  When you think you put down on Aaron Baddeley to win the Northern Trust Open at 66-1, and you think you meant to because you specifically checked each book you have an account at to find the best odds. And then you watch the tournament all week and see he's in contention, and then when he's up 2 with just 2 holes to go and you pretty much have the win in the bag you go to check on what the exact amount you're about to win is and it turns out someway, somehow that bet isn't there and you can't blame anybody but yourself because you know damn well you were drinking Wednesday night and probably completely spaced on hitting "confirm" that final time.

FML.

Week in Review - 12.06.2010

 Back by popular demand - the week in review.  I would have had this up for your Monday morning consumption, however Comcast decided to make sure nobody in the midwest who uses their service was able to access the internet.  I was caught in their evil web of lies and evil.  Luckily, we're back, so let's go.


WHO WAS AWESOME

1.  Trevor Mbakwe.  I'm starting to think calling him Reign Man II was maybe the most accurate thing I've ever done.  Freakishly athletic?  Check.  Strong dunker?  Check.  Incredible rebounder?  Check.  Unable to score from further than 8 feet from the rim?  Check.  Commits dumb fouls?  Check.  Seriously, all he needs is a bunch of kids by different ladies and a bunch less IQ points and he'd be Shawn Kemp, and I mean that as a total compliment because Kemp was one of my all-time favorites.  Really maybe the lone bright spot in a pretty crappy week for your favorite team, Mbakwe put up 18 and 11 against Virginia, and nearly brought the Gophers back in that game, and then followed it up with 12 and 16 vs. Cornell.  It will be interesting to see how he fares against the other Big Ten bigs, but so far he looks like he's on a whole different level out there - something the Gophers haven't seen at PF since......Courtney James, I guess?

2.  LaceDarius Dunn.  The Baylor star guard has simply been on fire since being cleared on a domestic assault charge that was clearly a case of either mistaken identity or someone trying to frame him.  In his three games back he's scored 24, 20, and 24 and averaged 4.3 rebound and 3.3 assists to go along with that while shooting 53% from the floor and going 16-31 from three, including 6-12 in Thursday's win over Arizona State.  The Bears are looking good with Lace looking primed for a big year, stud recruit Perry Jones living up to the hype, and the guys the needed to step up (A.J. Walton, Quincy Acy) have played well.  They've had a candy soft schedule so far, but keep an eye open for their December 18th game against Gonzaga, that one should give an idea of just how good Baylor can be.  They're still 30-1 to win the whole thing.  I suggest you grab some of that action now.

3.  Jon Leuer.  Of all the Minnesota high school players who the Gophers have lost out on, Leuer might end up hurting the most.  He joins a nice list of high school greats who spurned Dan Monson and found success elsewhere (Troy Bell, Cole Aldrich, Cory Johnson, Ryan Amoroso, Kammron Taylor, Lawrence McKenzie (initially), and Isaiah Dahlman (just kidding) to name a few) but if his stats so far this year are any indication Leuer might be the best of the bunch.  He dominated in both games this week, both in the big win over NC State (22 pts, 11 rebs, 2 stls, 2 blks, 2 assists) and in the easy win over South Dakota (29 pts, 9 rebs, 4 blks, 2 steals, 2 assists), and his overall numbers are certainly Big Ten POY worthy (20/8/2/1/2 with 50% shooting).  Pretty depressing.  He's like Mike Bauer if he actually kept improving instead of falling in love with the three-pointer and ignoring everything else.

4.  North Carolina Tar Heels.  I wouldn't exactly say they're going to be alright, but the win over Kentucky shows they can at least beat a quality, if overrated, team.  Tyler Zeller looks like an absolute player and he absolutely dominated the Wildcats, putting up 27 points (on 8-13 shooting), 11 boards, and 5 blocks and teamed with John Henson to block 8 shots and force Terrence Jones, a super-stud as a freshman so far this, into 3-17 shooting, basically confusing him, not allowing him to get any clean looks in the paint, and basically winning the game for the Heels because their guards and Barnes are still meh.  I don't know if they can get into the NCAA Tournament, but every quality win they can get helps the Gophers' chances so let's go Heels. 

5. San Diego State Aztecs.  A couple of very solid wins this week for SDSU, who continue to cruise.  This week they played a couple of other quality mid-majors - St. Mary's and Wichita State - and had zero problems.  They beat both teams by 14, and now sit and 8-0 with a quality win over Gonzaga on their resume already.  They've got a pretty easy road until they hit Mountain West play, and the MWC should be strong enough this year that SDSU should cruise to a bid as long as they don't complete crash and burn, and there's no reason to suspect that they might.  They have enough balance (6 guys score at least 8 per game) to handle a bad night from anybody, and the star power in Kawhi Leonard to carry them far in March.  Consider them a solid sleeper.  And I have them at 100-1.  Holla.


WHO SUCKED

1.  Minnesota Gophers Perimeter Defense.  Once is a fluke, twice is a problem, and a season-long issue is a major major problem that is going to kill this team at some point.   Virginia shot 10-13 from behind the arc and Cornell followed that up going 14-33, and the Gophers are now allowing their opponents to shoot 38.8% from three for the season, which ranks 296th in the country and dead last in the Big Ten.  Making the alarm bells right a wee bit harder is the fact that Northwestern, Michigan State, and Illinois all rank in the top 25 in three-point shooting in the country, and every Big Ten team outside of Penn State, Iowa, and Michigan shoot better than the D-I average.  So basically we're looking at two choices - learn how to defend the perimeter, whether through scheme, hard work, smarter decisions, or some combination, or get shredded all season long.  Not exactly Sophie's Choice here.  And if Tubby can't fix this, we have to start questioning him a bit, don't we? 

2.  The Pac 10.   USC did manage to beat Texas on Sunday, but prior to that the Pac-10 was cruising towards a second straight year of terribleness.  Just this week USC lost to TCU, Oregon State lost to Utah Valley (and got crushed by Colorado), and UCLA lost to Montana - and you can find a handful of games just like that for the conference each and every week.  Washington is looking like a Final Four type team and Arizona looks solid, but that's pretty much it.  UCLA and Washington State each have a shot at a bid depending on how things go, but it's very likely we're looking at just two tournament teams here.

3.  Atlantic 10.  If you pay way too much attention to this blog you know I probably like the A-10 a little bit more than I really should (with the exception of Dayton, which is full of whiny poser pansies), so it is with great pain I must announce that the A-10 is most certainly down this year.  There were supposed to be four very strong teams (Xavier, Dayton, Richmond, and Temple) along with a handful of sleeper candidates (St. Louis, Charlotte, and Rhode Island) - unfortunately it's not quite looking that way.  Just this week, St. Louis got smoked by Portland, Charlotte was downed by East Carolina, Xavier got rolled by Miami (OH), East Tennessee State came into Dayton and beat the Flyers, and Richmond, the one team that's looking good so far, lost to Old Dominion.  With the exception of the ODU game those are all bad, bad losses.  I'm thinking two bids might be the best case scenario here.  Shame.  And it would be a double shame if one of them went to Dayton.

4.  Virginia Tech Hokies.  The past two years have ended the same way for the Hokies:  Coach Seth Greenberg whining and bitching because Va Tech didn't get an NCAA tournament bid despite a good conference season because they would schedule an insanely weak non-conference slate.  This year they finally scheduled up, but that doesn't help if you can't win, and they can't win.  So far they've lost to Kansas State, UNLV, Purdue, and Virginia - the last two this week alone - and are now just 4-4 with only a win over Oklahoma State to show for their efforts.  They still have shots coming up against Penn State and Mississippi State, but man, they better do something.  Special shout-out to Hokie star Malcolm Delaney for shooting 2-18 (TWO FOR EIGHTEEN!!lol) and committing the fourth of his turnovers on the final play of the game to lose the game.  Bravo. 

5.  North Carolina State Wolfpack.  Not so much for their loss to Syracuse on Saturday, because the Orange are a very good team and NC State hung tough until the end, but for their embarrassing destruction by Wisconsin in their Big-10/ACC Challenge match-up.  They lost by 39, shot 32% while allowing 50% from Wisconsin, were out-rebounded 40-26, turned it over 13 times to just 9 assists, and forced just six turnovers.  In short, a total disaster.  They are certainly a talented team, but still very young, so a game like this was probably inevitable, but they need to start grabbing some quality wins here in order to justify my faith in them.  They have a game coming up in a couple weeks against Arizona.  Better win that one.



Honorable mention to Old Dominion, who were basically following a perfect blueprint on how to get an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament as a mid-major until this weekend when they lost to Delaware in their conference opener.  The Fightin' Blue Hens are expected to be a factor in the CAA race or any race, really, so this loss is going to hurt.  ODU has probably done enough to buy themselves some breathing room, but this loss cuts that cushion way, way down.  Way to go, jerks!

Also, can we please calm down about Michael Jordan's kid?  Thanks.

ACC College Basketball 2010 Preview

 The ACC has been almost been a two team league lately, and it looks like it might stay that way.  Sure, NC State and Virginia Tech are up this year, but Clemson, Georgia Tech, and especially Wake Forest are down.  Even when UNC was bad last year, you knew it wouldn't last, and in Duke's darkest days they recovered.  It seems every other school is on a constant up/down cycle.  Either Duke or UNC has either won outright or tied for the ACC regular season championship the last seven years and 17 of the last 20.  That's lame.  Somebody do something. 

1.  Duke Blue Devils.  I mean, you pretty much have to pick them first, right, no matter how much it burns when you say it?  Scheyer is gone, but they are so loaded with everybody else coming in, and the rumor is that incoming frosh PG Kyrie Irving is the best player on the Duke roster - and Singler is still here.  About the only real issues are with Brian Zoubek and Lance Thomas gone there are some questions about Duke's toughness inside since they're all a bunch of dandies down in Durham.  I'll also be curious to see how many games Seth Curry shoots the Devils right out of.

2.  North Carolina Tar Heels.  I hate putting them second since they didn't even bother to make the NCAA Tournament last season, but the talent level is there - at least on paper.  Harrison Barnes is going to be a great one, Kevin Durant II, maybe, and Henson and Zellar are supposed to be star types as well.  The real question, as it was last year, is what of the PG spot?  Larry Drew was a disappointment most of last season, and I've read some are questioning if incoming freshman Kendall Marshall is really ACC material (and of course, the next thing you read says he's the best PG in this class).  Projected starting shooting guard Will Graves was also just dismissed for the ever ubiquitous "violation of team rules" so there's even more uncertainty in the backcourt.  Combine those questions with the thin frontcourt and although they have the talent and I'm picking them at #2 they also have to potential to fall apart for a second consecutive season.  I'm hoping for the second one.

3.  North Carolina State Wolfpack.  This is the team I'll be rooting for out of the ACC this year, and they pretty much deserve to have a nice season.  Sid Lowe hasn't show himself to necessarily be much of a game coach, which we are all pretty familiar with here in Minnesota, but his recruiting efforts are paying off.  The Wolfpack landed one of the best classes in the country (ESPN ranks it as the 7th best) with power forward C.J. Leslie and guards Lorenzo Brown and Ryan Harrow all ranking in the top 37 in the country according to Rivals.  With their All-ACC second team PF Tracy Smith back along with big-time shooter Scott Wood, all the talent is there for NC State to be relevant for the first time since Fire & Ice.  Yes, Fire & Ice.  You know you remember them.

4.  Florida State Seminoles.  There are plenty of question marks, but FSU also has some seriously top flight talent coming back, and this team continues to be a defensive powerhouse year-after-year, which means they always have a chance.  Helping out would be some offensive firepower, and they have two guys with a chance to really bring it:  Chris Singleton, a junior forward who can do it all, and Michael Snaer, a sophomore guard and great athlete who needs to improve his shot.  Also look for Xavier Gibson to try to fill in for Solomon Alabi.  He might end up as the biggest key to FSU's season.  Also, literally since he's 6-11, 240.    

5.  Virginia Tech Hokies.  They were going to be my sleeper and I was going to pick them second in the ACC for this year, but injuries have hurt their depth and although I fear I may be dropping them too far, I also think their depth behind Malcolm Delaney was their biggest strength.  And there's no doubt Delaney is an ACC Player-of-the-Year candidate and a possible All-American, but it will be up to that supporting cast to take VT as far as they are going to go.  The best news for the Hokies, however, is that they finally put together a decent non-conference schedule, so the annual tradition of coach Seth Greenberg bitching that his team deserves an NCAA bid despite not having played anybody out of conference all year should mercifully come to an end. 

6.  Maryland Terrapins.  The Terps lose a ton, with three career 1,000 point scorers on their way out in dirty stud Greivis Vasquez, backcourt mate Eric Hayes, and swingman Landon Milbourne, but Gary Williams still has some good talent and also sweats a lot.  Jordan Williams proved himself to be one of the best rebounders in the conference last year and has a very good all-around game, and Sean Mosley is one of those solid, all-around guards who score when needed, are smart with the ball, and grab too many rebounds for their size; an excellent complementary piece, but they need a star to team with Williams.  The recruiting class is deep, but not exceptional at the top, so expect Maryland to be a solid, yet unspectacular team this year.  Sort of like set-up man extraordinaire Scott Shields.  

7.  Miami Hurricanes.  It's not often a team loses it's highest scoring guard (James Dews) and highest scoring post player (Dwayne Collins) and gets better without an outstanding recruiting class, but that may be the case for the Hurricanes this year thanks to Durand Scott.  Don't forget that although Miami finished last in the ACC at 4-12 (way to go, Gophers) they did have a nice little run going in the ACC tournament beating Wake, Virginia Tech in a game the Hokies needed desperately, and losing by just three to Duke, and the biggest reason for their success in two of those three games was the play of Scott.  He's not much of a shooter (just 29% from three on just 58 attempts), but if he ever adds that piece to his game he could end up an all-league type of player, or get good enough to transfer like Denis Clemente did.

8.  Virginia Cavaliers.  Most of the positive affects of hiring Tony Bennett won't be felt until his recruiting classes have more time to gel, particularly with Sylvan Landesburg no longer being on the team, and last year was pretty meh but I have a hunch this year the Cavaliers are going to be tough and knock off a team or two they shouldn't (please not the Gophers please).  A large and talented class of freshmen, led by guards K.T. Harrell (#30 recruit by Rivals) and Joe Harris (#119) and forwards James Johnson (#108) and Will Regan (#148), will join an established star, if second tier one, in forward Mike Scott and two other returning starters.  That's a lot of talent in Charlottesville, more than we've seen in quite some time.  They probably aren't ready to be truly dangerous yet, but they're going to be pesky.  You watch.  If they don't knock off more than one top 25 team this year I'll send everyone who remembers this prediction a token of my shame as an act of contrition.

9.  Boston College Eagles. Most of the squad is back from last season, with just the transferring Rakim Sanders missing, but the problem is what's left just isn't all that exciting.  Joe Trapani is already an excellent all-around player and should thrive in new coach Steve Donahue's offense, and there are a couple of other decent players but the team is thin, both in bodies and in talent.  Donahue is already paying dividends on the recruiting trail (one site I saw has them with the #17 recruiting class in the country for next year) so things should turn around soon for B.C., just not this year.   

10.  Clemson Tigers.  Nearly everybody is back from last year's NCAA team, but the one guy missing is going to be very difficult to replace in Trevor Booker, who was top 10 last year in the ACC in scoring, rebounding, and field goal percentage, even if they do have his little brother.  Booker basically carried that team last season, and it may be up to the only other double-digit scorer from last year, point man Demontez Stitt, to carry them this year.  He did score 21 in their NCAA Tournament loss to Missouri, but reached 20 points just two other times last year, and doesn't average many assists for a point guard (just 3.1 apg).  Really there is a lot of blah talent here, and unless somebody takes a big leap forward the Tigers' streak of three straight NCAA Tourny bids will end at three. 

11.  Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets.  The Jackets have a lineup of guards that could potentially be as good as any group in the country.  Mfon Udofia, Iman Shumpert, Brian Oliver, and Glen Rice, Jr. was a nice group last year and will be outstanding this year.  Unfortunately, there's nothing in the front court after Derrick Favors and Gani Lawal took off for the NBA and Zack Peacock graduated, so it's going to be awfully difficult to compete.  The only non-freshman over 6'-6" is seven-footer Brad Sheehan whose scored less than a hundred points in his combined three years, and the freshman aren't exactly superstars, with one who redshirted last year because he wasn't ready and another coming off a torn ACL.  It's going to be a rough year in Atlanta (although honestly when isn't it?  Talk about murder-happy people, sheesh), but with the shooting and perimeter skills of the guards they might shock a team here and there.

12.  Wake Forest Demon Deacons.  At least the Jackets have their guards, the Demon Deacons can't even say they have that with the losses of Al-Farouq Aminu, Ishmael Smith, Chas McFarland, and LD Williams, leaving them with just C.J. Harris (9.9 ppg) as their only returning scorer.  There is a good recruiting class coming in to Winston-Salem with four players in Rivals top 100 arriving on campus this year so the future looks bright, but this is going to be a pretty awful team this season.  I mean, like, Dan Monson's Gophers terrible.  Yes, for real.


Other Previews:

The Big 12

Week in Review - 3/15/2010

Whew.   Were you like me and had your heart drop when Florida popped up on the screen?  Terrifying, but ultimately the committee made the right choices and the Gophers were rewarded for an incredible last week of ball.  I like the matchup quite a bit, too.  Not necessarily because I think the Gophers will have an easy time with Xavier or anything, but mainly because I think that region is pretty weak.  If they can get by the Musketeers, they get the weakest three seed in the second round.  They also caught a pretty big break by playing in Milwaukee, where they should have a sizable advantage in fans.

One thing is for sure, it's exciting, and the season no longer goes down as a failure.  I'll be back with a true preview before I head out to Chicago with Snacks and Snake, but for now I'm predicting a Gopher win.


WHO WAS AWESOME

1.  Colt Iverson.  How did this happen?  And I'm not even talking numbers, although basically scoring double his season average in every game is impressive, but his game was completely unrecognizable and I mean that in a good way.  His moves were suddenly polished, and he had a lot of them.  He now suddenly has a drop step.  He's using shot fakes beautifully and looks like Kevin McHale down there.  He can score with either hand.  I have no idea what is going on here.  I thought his upside was going to be like a Greg Ostertag rebounder/enforcer type who is most valuable for setting picks and his five fouls per game, but suddenly things have gotten really interesting.  If this is for real, the Gophers are suddenly a dangerous team.  Please let this be for real - like the Loch Ness Monster - and not some kind of false production - like the Moon Landing.

2.  San Diego State.  If you're on the bubble going into your conference tournament there is one surefire way to make sure you get a bid - win the whole thing, and that's what the Aztecs did, winning the MWC tournament, including wins over UNLV and New Mexico.  SDSU is a dangerous team, and they went 2-1 against New Mexico this year with the loss being by just two points.  Drawing Tennessee is always a mystery since they are the kind of team who could either flame out early or go on a deep run, but I'm calling an Aztec upset in the first round.

3. Duke.  It's always tough to praise Duke, but they did what a lot of other regular season conference champions couldn't manage and they went out and won their conference tournament.  They got lucky a bit in that Maryland got knocked out early by Georgia Tech, but winning the ACC is still winning the ACC.  As a bonus, they picked up the fourth #1 seed and were somehow placed in the easiest region in the history of college basketball.  But, since they're Duke, I'm sure they'll still screw it up somehow.

4.  Ohio.  Every year some middling team from a smaller conference gets hot and makes a run, winning their conference tournament and setting themselves up to get their doors blown off in the first round.  This year, that honor goes to the Ohio Bobcats for winning the MAC, with Georgetown being the doors-blow-offer.  Kent State or Akron would have been a dangerous foe, but they couldn't get it done so now we're saddled with the crappy Bobcats.  And how tough is that region?  The top five seeds are all legit Final Four contenders, including probably the best #1 and best #2.  It should end up playing pretty close to form as I only see one real first round upset possibility, but whoever ends up coming out of there is really going to have to earn it.

5.  Second-Tier basketball tournaments.  I know nobody really gives a crap about the NIT, CBI, or CIT because the only thing that matters is the NCAA Tournament, and I agree with a lot of that, but I also really like the second-tier tournaments.  There's some intrigue with these.  Illinois and Dayton ended up in the same bracket, and that would be a pretty good matchup.  Will either UCONN or North Carolina put their talent together finally and play well, or have they completely given up for the year?  And if nothing else, be thankful they exist so there's some college ball to watch/wager on all week long.



WHO SUCKED

1.  Conference USA.  It looked like this might be a break-through year for C-USA with a legitimate chance of them getting four teams in the dance depending on how the conference tourney shook out.  It shook alright, with Memphis and UAB both getting dumped by crappy teams in the quarters, ending both team's NCAA dreams and assuring that outside of UTEP, nobody would be getting an at-large bid from the conference.  They did manage to get two team's in thanks to Houston's championship win, but the Cougars are crappy and UTEP got a shitty seed, so there's a good chance C-USA goes 0 for the tournament this year.

2.  Virginia Tech.  This is the team that most people seem to have a problem with being excluded from the tournament, but the Hokies aren't even close to deserving a bid.  That 23-8 mark looks nice, but their non-conference Strength of Schedule ranked a ridiculous 344th in the country.  Their only non-conference wins over teams that are even remotely not god awful were over Penn State and Georgia, pretty much the defining line before you get to god awful.  And as good as a 10-6 conference mark looks, they didn't beat either Duke or Maryland.  Combine all that with a first round loss to Miami in the ACC tournament, and there is no way the Hokies deserved a bid.  Sorry VT, maybe try to schedule some real teams in the future.

3.  Dayton.  Well it is now official - this year's trip to Chicago will be a bit hollow, since when we go to the Dayton bar there won't be any Dayton fans there, unless I guess maybe there's an NIT game or something.  Considering they were supposed to be at the top of the A-10 and be a sweet-16 type team, this year can't be considered anything other than a disaster.  Other than one win over Xavier and an early non-conference victory over Georgia Tech, they couldn't beat anybody, whiffing on games against Villanova, Kansas State, and New Mexico, and they lost plenty of games they couldn't afford to lose.  Coming down the stretch they lost games to St. Louis, Richmond, and Duquesne.  Losing to Richmond and St. Louis might have been manageable, but the loss to Duquesne was a crusher. 

4.  Mississippi State.  Jarvis Varnado deserves better than the NIT, but for the second straight year MSU didn't do enough to get into the tournament and had to try to win SEC tournament to get in.  Last year it worked, this year it came just short.  The Bulldogs were damn close though, leading Kentucky by three with 4.9 seconds to go in the game.  The Wildcats, however, pulled off the rare intentionally miss a free throw, get the rebound and score to tie the game move and sent it into overtime where they ended up winning and sent MSU to the NIT.  Hopefully they can play well and at least make it to Madison Square Garden and send Varnado out in style, a player like that deserves it.  I'm really going to miss him.

5.  Northwestern.  Ouch.  From 10-1 media sleeper sensation to earn their first ever NCAA bid all the way to a 7 seed in the NIT (and will play vs. Rhode Island in round 1).  I'm not too worried about them though, they'll almost certainly get a bid next year.  With Shurna and Thompson both back, Coble returning from injury, and Drew Crawford getting better they have a real chance at an upper-division finish in the conference next year.  That sounds weird.

THE GOPHERS MADE THE TOURNAMENT!!!!!

Week in Review - 3/1/2010

Well that was a pretty good win.  Not good as in pretty, or good as in they finally figured out how to close out a game, but good as in that was a season saver.  I can't really give you the usual brilliant, in-depth analysis you've come to expect because I was watching the game while at a beer bust, but I saw enough to know my prediction of a big gopher lead early, a gopher lead late, and a Illinois comeback and win damn near came true.  That's not the important thing, however.  The important thing is that they did get this win, and now are in ok shape for a tournament bid, even showing up on the "last four out" for Joe Lunardi.  Win at Michigan and beat Iowa here, then win one big ten tournament game and it's very interesting.

If you just compare the Gophers and Illinois quick, they have basically the same record, although Illinois is two games better in conference play.  The Gophers have the better RPI (70 to 74) and better Strength of Schedule (37 to 61).  Both teams have two wins over top 25 RPI teams, while Illinois has a total of four over top 50 teams compared to just three for the Gophers and they have nearly identical records against the top 100.  The Gophers have three bad losses (vs. teams over 100 in the RPI) while Illinois has two.  The Gophers are 4-8 in road/neutral games, while Illinois is 6-8.  The best win by either of the two teams goes to the Gophers with their win over Butler, and both team's have beaten Wisconsin.

I know the bids supposedly don't compare teams within the conference like this and look at the team's as an overall whole, but it's useful to know where the Gophers stand in comparison to the Illini.  It also serves as a depressing reminder that if you reverse almost any loss on the Gopher schedule, they are ahead of Illinois, but as it stands right now they are probably slightly behind.  In any case, it's time to win.  There's no room for error.

WHO WAS AWESOME

1.  Notre Dame.  Bill Simmons' Ewing Theory in full effect?  Seriously, has anybody has as impressive a week all year as Notre Dame had this week?  They beat both Pitt and Georgetown, both by double-digits, and have gone from "probably out" to "probably in" all in a four day span - and they've done it without Luke Harangody.  Since he's been out it's just been a bunch of role-players just used to deferring to him, but maybe we're finding out they aren't role players (even if Tory Jackson has the decision-making skills of a rock).  Ben Hansbrough has stepped up his scoring since Harangody went out, averaging 15 per game (compared to 12), but the guy who has really helped out is junior forward Carleton Scott, who is averaging 9.3 points and 6.3 rebounds per game since the injury compared to 3.5 of each beforehand.  Basically the Irish have played really well since Luke went down, and now find themselves in good shape for an NCAA bid.  Which means he'll come back next week, they'll lose two, bow out early in the Big East tournament, and find themselves in the NIT again.  

2.  Syracuse.  Wow.  And also, wow.  What an impressive victory over Villanova, the alleged #8 team in the land.  The Orange smoked Scottie Reynolds and the rest of those dorks 95-77 which followed up their road win earlier in the week over Providence.  To go out and annihilate another top ten team like the Wildcats is impressive, and I'm starting to think the Orange are the team to beat in March.  I was pretty clearly wrong about Wes Johnson, who is an absolute stud, and I think Andy Rautins used my criticism of him from last year as a motivational tool because he's somehow become a top flight point guard and he's not even a point guard.  I was talking to a friend who is a Syracuse alum, and he said that this isn't the Cuse's most talented team, but it is their best.  He said usually they have a focal point guy who a lot of times undermines the whole team concept - it worked with Carmelo, didn't with Donte Greene - but this year it's just seven guys who have bought in to the team concept.  Really good team.  Right now, they're probably my #1.

3.  New Mexico.  If you kind of thought New Mexico wasn't anything special and just kept rising in the polls because they were basically just chillin' in the Mountain West, you aren't alone.  If you still think that, you're an idiot.  The Lobos put the word out that they are the real deal, going into Provo and beat BYU 83-81, the Cougars first home loss this year and one of only a handful the last few years.  The win clinches at least a tie for the MWC crown for the Lobos, and brings New Mexico to 6-0 this year against ranked teams.  That's right, 6-0.  They've beaten BYU twice, UNLV, Cal, Texas Tech, and Texas A&M, and also have wins over decent teams like Dayton, Louisiana Tech, and New Mexico State.  Three of this team's top four players are of the 6-5 to 6-8 athletic wing types, and the other dude gives them the strong and experience point play you need in March.  This team is a threat.

4.  Marquette.  Now this is how a bubble team is supposed to respond to a challenge in late March.  Marquette was probably right in the middle of the bubble, but with two wins this week, both on the road, both in overtime, and one over fellow bubble team Seton Hall, they're probably in for sure.  First, the Eagles beat St. John's in their place 63-61 on a Jimmy Butler jumper as time expired in overtime, and then they went to Seton Hall and knocked the Pirates out of NCAA contention 84-83.  I didn't expect much out of Marquette this year, not after losing three starting guards who were basically the whole team, but Lazar Hayward has gotten even better and Butler and Darius Johnson-Odom are very good players.  And Marquette is probably better than the 19-9 record would indicate.  Other than an inexplicable loss to DePaul and an early season loss to NC State every loss on the record has been by single-digits to an NCAA-caliber team. 

5.  Tay Waller.  I know you don't know who this is, but that's why I'm here, to be nerdy enough about college hoops to know who people like Tay Waller are.  And also he's on my fantasy team, which has now made the finals.  Anyway, Waller had a big week but you won't hear about because he plays for crappy Auburn.  The 6-2 senior guard for the Tigers was a top 10 JuCo player back in 2008 coming out of NW Florida Community College, and after being pretty solid for his year and three-quarters (way better than Bostick) he's really hit his stride, scoring more than 26 in each of Auburn's last three games, scoring 29 against Ole Miss in a loss and then 26 to lead the Tigers to a win over LSU this week.  He's not on any NBA radars or anything, but he'll probably end up making a nice living overseas, and he deserves to be recognized even if he plays for the shitbox that is the Auburn Tigers.  Plus, he probably gets to roll around with broads like these all the time.

WHO SUCKED

1.  Wake Forest.  Probably the worst week any team has had in the history of basketball.  No joke.  The Demon Deacons started off the week by losing at ACC bottom-feeder North Carolina State, and then followed that up by getting embarrassed at home by the embarrassing Carolina Tar Heels.  To put this in Big Ten terms, that would be like losing at Indiana and then losing at home to Michigan.  [NOTE:  I just realized what I did there.  hahahahahahahahahaha kill me.]   And I had the misfortune to watch a good chunk of that Carolina game, and holy crap is Wake awful.  I've never seen a team play so lazily and selfishly all at the same time.  It was like watching five Westbrooks.  I refuse to believe this team is 8-6 in the ACC, and was 8-3 at one point.  This is a first-round upset waiting to happen, I don't care if they draw Bethune-Cookman in round one.

2.  John Wall.  Has the phenom hit the proverbial wall?  His raw numbers are ok - 12 pts, 5 rebounds, 4 assists in a 20-point win over South Carolina and 19-5-6 in the loss to Tennessee, but if you look deeper he had a pretty sub-par week.  He shot just 10-31 overall and was 0-7 from three-point range, and he turned the ball over 11 times in the two games - yes, that's more turnovers than field goals made this week.  And although he has always been a bit of a turnover machine (averaging 4.0 per game) his shooting is what would really concern me - he hasn't shot better than 50% in a game since February 2nd.  Maybe it's just a simple fluctuation of his numbers, but if I was a Kentucky fan I'd be pretty concerned that he seems to be struggling a bit at this time of the year.  In any case, there's no way a team this young (three of the top four players are freshmen) and this volatile (both Cousins and Wall are crazy) with that coach is going to the final four.  You go ahead and pick them there, but they're going to get knocked off by some seven seed.  Just watch.

3.  Virginia Tech.  When your hopes for an at-large bid are best described as "little margin for error and only in decent shape because of an impressive ACC record" one thing you really shouldn't do is go out the next week and drop two ACC games - one at home (to Maryland) and one to a bottom-tier team (Boston College).  The Hokies are still 21-7 overall and 8-6 in conference play, but there's not a whole lot to be impressed with.  They have a win over Clemson, one over Wake, and a non-conference win over Seton Hall, and that's it.  Everything else is against a bottom tier team.  I don't know what to think about their chances, they're a super confusing team.  You could make a pretty good argument spanning anywhere from "they should be easily in" to "they have no chance."  Take your pick.

4.  The Atlantic 10.  Going into this week there were seven teams in the A-10 that had a shot at getting an at-large bid to the tournament, but things are not breaking the right way and it's starting to look more and more likely that the conference will end up with three teams going (Temple, Xavier, and Richmond are all basically locks).  Dayton is probably fourth on the list, but at 8-6 in the conference might not have enough juice, and they had a huge chance to knock of Temple this week and whiffed.  Another team that had a chance at a big upset and missed out was St. Louis, who has a nice 10-4 conference record but is lacking big wins, which makes their loss to Xavier this week even more damaging.  Charlotte and Rhode Island both looked to have an inside track at a bid earlier this year, but both have faded coming down the stretch and both knocked themselves out of bid contention with losses they couldn't have this weekend - Charlotte lost to George Washington, Rhode Island to St. Bonaventure.  So the A-10 will likely have just three teams dancing, maybe four if Dayton gets it together, which isn't bad, but isn't as lofty as it could have been.  Also, Richmond and Temple are going down quickly, Xavier is the only team here that can make a run.  Mark it down.

5.  Purdue.  Ruh roh.  You kind of had to wonder just how the Boilers would respond with Robbie Hummel out.  They still have E'Twaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson which still gives them one of the better 1-2 punches in the country, but Hummel was kind of the glue guy, along with being a top scorer.  They certainly didn't have any time to ease into, welcoming Michigan State to Keady Court right off the bat, and the results weren't pretty.  The only managed 44 points, shot just 30%, and were out-rebounded 44-16 as the Spartans won 53-44.  Yes by the way, those numbers are correct they were out-rebounded 44-16.  I think they'll end up being a lot better without Hummel than they showed on Sunday, and they have games against Penn State and Indiana this coming week to work on some things, but this has to be a pretty big concern for Boiler Nation.


I guess there was also some kind of big whoopity-doo hockey game between the Americans and the Commies or something, but I didn't really pay attention.  I heard the commies won, so I expect Canada to start taking over Red Dawn style anytime now.  WOLVERINES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (but not on Tuesday)



BUBBLE GAMES OF NOTE:

Fresno State @ Utah State.  I've written about them before, but the beat rolls on.  USU needs to win and keep winning.  Even at 23-6 they can't really afford a loss because, outside of a win over BYU, there's not much there in the non-conference profile.  They would probably be ok if they lost in the WAC final to either New Mexico State or Louisiana Tech, but any loss short of that will keep likely knock them out of at-large consideration

College Basketball Preview: ACC

Remember at the end of the Mountain West Review where I said I was going to get less fact, number, and research intensive?  Yeah, I'm still going to keep that going.  It's much easier for me, and probably a better read for you.  Plus, it lessons the chances of me getting attacked by rabid fans of whichever conference I review, and my feelings are already a little bruised after a Dayton fan said I probably live in a trailer.  I'm still trying to get over that one.  Why don't people realize that words hurt?

1.  Duke.  More like Puke, am I right?  Seriously I hate putting these guys first, I just hate it, but I think they're the team to beat while the Heels figure out their new team.  In a bit of a switch, the Devils will be thin in the back court this season, with just Nolan Smith, Jon Scheyer, and graduated from high school a year early guy and big time recruit Andre Dawkins.  Luckily for them they have a whole bunch of big tall white guys who like to play on the perimeter and are comfortable handling the ball, as usual, so lack of guard depth shouldn't hurt in the half court, at least.  That group includes Kyle Singler, the preseason favorite for ACC Player of the Year.

2.  North Carolina.  Losing Hansbrough, Lawson, Ellington, and Green gives the Heels a lot to replace, but as you would expect there's a whole other group here ready to step in.  How good can Ed Davis be?  We'll find out.  I remember last recruiting season it was Ed Davis this and Ed Davis that and blah blah blah.  He will be counted on to be a big part of the offense.  The Heels recruiting class is loaded, with all five guys in the Rivals top 70.  Carolina will be loaded with big guys, with leading returning scorer Deon Thompson back, Davis, and three of the recruits 6-10 or bigger, headlined by John Henson who was described by Athlon as a "game-changing talent."  The key might be PG Larry Drew, the only real PG on the roster and a top recruit two seasons ago who was sheltered behind Lawson.

3.  Georgia Tech.  "Georgia Tech?" is probably what you are saying right now, but you best believe the Jackets are ready to make a run.  They bring in an outstanding recruiting class, including Rivals #3 overall Derrick Favors, a 6-9 center out of Georgia and the next Ralph Sampson III, as well as two guys the Gophers were looking at:  PG Mfon Udofia (#32) and Glen Rice, Jr. (#45).  With Gani Lawal's surprise decision to not enter the NBA draft and Iman Shumpert also back, the Jackets have as much talent as anybody (well, other than UNC or Duke).  Sadly, there is not a point guard from NYC on the roster, but one of the other newcomers this year is named Brian Oliver, so they got that going for them.

4.  Maryland.  Grievis Vasquez is still around?!!?!?!  Guy is on the Wade Lookingbill/Brian Cardinal program apparently - except he's talented.  Very talented, very good all-around player, and a flat-out stud, as shown by his triple-double against North Carolina last year, as well as several other near triple doubles.  The Terps have almost everybody back from last year, but don't have a secondary star to compliment Vasquez.  If one of the returners or top 100 recruit Jordan Williams can elevate their game to help him, Maryland might have a sweet 16 run in them.

5.  Clemson.  It's tough to know what to make of the Tigers.  Losing both K.C. Rivers and his-range-starts-when-he-enters-the-gym-type Terrence Oglesby weakens their perimeter, but they still bring back superstud post player Trevor Booker.  He can not only score, but he's one of the best rebounders in the country.  McDonald's All-American Milton Jennings joins up to help solidify the paint, but, like UNC, point guard play will determine how far Clemson can go.  Hopefully Oglesby enjoys Europe, his loss certainly weakens their hopes.

6.  Florida State.  Toney Douglas is gone.  Wow, how weird is that?  Dude seemed like he had been around forever, but I never got sick of him - now the Seminoles need to start life without him and they have a pretty good base to work from.  As usual they will still have a bunch of athletes, starting with 6-9 wing Chris Singleton and 7-1 beast inside Soloman Alabi.  Perhaps most exciting, however, is #7 recruit in the country Michael Snaer, a combo guard who was the California Player of the Year, will be lacing them up for FSU despite offers from UCLA and Kansas.  He should give Henson and Favors a run for ACC Freshman of the Year, and gives the Seminoles a chance to win on any night.

7.  Virginia Tech.  This is a team that I can see ending up higher than 7th, but right now I'm putting them here because this is where they ended up and I don't feel like cutting and pasting anything right now.  They lose their leading scorer in A.D. Vassallo, but returning guard Malcolm Delaney is a pimp and forward Jeff Allen is a beast down low, giving them an excellent inside-outside tandem.  The Hokies have been an NIT staple the last few years (other than '07), but if those two can get a little help from someone else the NCAA Tournament is certainly within reach.

8.  Wake Forest.  Last year the Demon Deacons raced out to a 16-0 record and a #1 ranking in the polls before coming back to earth and then flaming out in the NCAA tournament with a first round loss to Cleveland State.  This year they will have a tougher road ahead, losing their two leading scorers, James Johnson and Jeff Teague, off to the NBA.  Luckily, they still have hyper athletic and likely lottery pick next year Al-Farouq Aminu to work with.  They should be a very athletic team once again this year, but a mediocre recruiting class on top of losing their two studs means a step back.

9.  Miami.  I'm going to have to be honest with you here - I don't think I've seen a Miami game in two years.  Usually I've seen almost ever team, particularly from the power conferences, at least once or so a year, but somehow I've missed the Canes.  I know they lose Jack McClinton, who was their stud for a couple of years, and that certainly can't help.  The things I'm reading say that they have some pretty talented pieces and might be better than they were last year, but since I've never heard of any of these people I don't really know.  and I assume they'll lose a player or two to some sort of suspension since Miami is full of criminals.  Wow, I should really get to know this team better before they play the Gophers December 2nd.

10.  Boston College.  The Eagles were in a lot of ways a one-man show last season, and with Tyrese Rice now gone, some of those bit parts need to become major cogs.  BC does have two really interesting players, both oversized wing guys who can score inside or out in 6-8 Joe Trapani and 6-5 Rakim Sanders - who was a big part of their upset win of UNC at Chapel Hill last year.  Their issue is with lackluster post play, and with no new signees for this season they'll be relying on the same guys; foul-prone center Josh Southern and undersized PF Corey Raji, whose improvement might be the key for this season. 

11.  Virginia.  Tony Bennett is the new coach in Virginia, so you can expect the Cavaliers to get very slow and very boring in the near future.   For now, Sylvan Landesburg is an incredible player, but he needs a J.R. Reynolds to go with his Sean Singletary, or a Curtis Staples to go with his Harold Deane.  Yes, I'm trying to say he needs help.  Top 100 recruit Tristan Spurlock, a 6-8 wing from Virginia who was recruited hard by Georgetown, could be what he needs, but I don't see much improvement this year.  Bennett will make a difference, as boring as he his, but it will take time.

12.  NC State.  Man, has the this program taken a down turn in the last three years, and with their top three scorers gone to graduation it's not going to get any better this year.  Tracy Smith looks like he's going to end up being a very good player, but there's not much else here to get excited about.  Sid Lowe is still around, and he brings in good size and a couple highly regarded players in PF Richard Howell (Rivals #61) and C DeShawn Painter (#127), but took a big hit when PG Lorenzo Brown (#37) failed to qualify academically and had to go to prep school.  The school seems to believe in Lowe, and with girls like those above I doubt anybody is even paying attention to the court. 


So there you have it.  The ACC is always competitive, always tough, and always one of the best conferences in the nation and it should be the same again last year.  And with that I'm off to Portland for a well-deserved vacation until Wednesday, so I won't be around to either comment on the Twins/Yankees series or defend myself against the inevitable hate mail that will follow from this preview.  Hopefully Dawger, Snake, or Sidler will write a Twins post or two, but those guys are pretty much lazy sacks of crap who are borderline illiterate, so I wouldn't bet on it. 


Other Previews:
Conference USA
Atlantic 10 
Mountain West