I was lucky enough to be a part of the Star Tribune's Myron Medcalf's power poll, which I will link to once he gets it up and running tomorrow. My submission is here:
(Link to the poll, now up and running)
1. Ohio State Buckeyes. Not only do they have the biggest and most impressive win after beating Florida tonight, but their one possible weakness - point guard - doesn't look like a weakness any more. Freshman Aaron Craft has 14 assists against just 3 turnovers in their two games. Oh, and fellow freshman Jared Sullinger is averaging 22 points and 12 rebounds. Look out.
2. Michigan State Spartans. Off the court issues and injuries don't seem to be affecting Sparty, and I don't know why I would ever doubt an Izzo team. They head to Maui next week, where we should get an idea if they're a national title favorite, or merely a contender.
3. Illinois Fighting Illini. We'll know more about Illinois after this week's Coaches vs. Cancer tourney where they play Texas and either Maryland or Pitt, but they've looked good in their three games since struggling in their exhibition contests.
4. Minnesota Gophers. If you're ranking the quality of wins by Big Ten teams thus far, the Gophers probably have #2 and #3 with their wins over Wofford and Siena. The only problem is the Siena game exposed a few too many flaws to put them in the upper tier. Like several other Big Ten teams they're in an upcoming tournament with several other qualities teams and we'll know more after we see how that shakes out.
5. Purdue Boilermakers. Tough to know how they're going to be with Hummel on the shelf when their only game was against Howard. I'm slotting them below the Gophers due to Minnesota's two quality wins already, but above Wisconsin since they made the Sweet 16 last year with basically the same team.
6. Wisconsin Badgers. Beating up on Prairie View and North Dakota isn't going to impress anybody. Going to UNLV this weekend and playing the Rebels right when they get Tre'Von Willis back will.
7. Northwestern Wildcats. Got to give the Cats for opening on the road and taking care of business, but their non-conference schedule is so weak this year it would take monumental collapses from the teams above them for Northwestern to move up in this poll before conference play starts. It may also keep them from their first NCAA bid.
8. Indiana Hoosiers. Indiana is out to a 3-0 start, and even if they haven't really played anybody their win over a so-so Wright State team by 23 is the most impressive win out of the conference's bottom feeders.
9. Penn State Nittany Lions. Barely knocked off St. Joseph's tonight. This does not bode well for Talor Battle's chances to finally make it to an NCAA Tournament.
10. Michigan Wolverines. Played, and beat, a team in South Carolina Upstate that I'm not even sure is Division I in their opener. Although I suppose if they stick to that level of competition it's pretty much the only way they'll have a good season.
11. Iowa Hawkeyes. If there was any doubt who the worst team in the Big Ten was going to be this year, and their probably shouldn't have been, the Hawkeyes erased it by losing to South Dakota State. When Gatens is back from injury they might have enough offense to steal an upset win here or there, but I can't foresee any possible way they move out of this 11th spot at any point.
Tuesday, November 16, 2010
Monday, November 15, 2010
Minnesota Gophers vs. Siena Saints Game Diary
I was all set to finally make it to Williams Arena for my first game of the year, when the double whammy lightning bolt of pink eye for Wonderbaby and work blowout for Mrs. W knocked those plans out of orbit, leaving me on the couch, watching the game like the rest of you slackers. So I might as well make the most of it and write some stuff down.
20:00 - Game hasn't started yet, we're currently watching the end of the Wake Forest/Hampton game that is inexplicably going down to the wire. Seriously, that Iowa/Wake Forest matchup in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge might feature the worst team in Big Ten history vs. the worst team in ACC history. I guess that's kind of historic, in it's own retarded way.
20:00 - I did finally watch the Gopher/Wofford game and paid like, 75% attention to it. Two things stood out for me: Ralph Sampson III looking like he actually wants to dominate fools this year, and Al Nolen doing three things I didn't think he was capable of: knocking down a three and doing in confidently, penetrating into the lane and aggressively attacking the basket, and getting into the lane and knowing exactly where his teammates were for the dish. If that was for real, and I'm not betting on it, the Gophers are going to be awfully tough to beat because he's still unguardable. And also I think I love Chip Armelin like a fat kid loves cake.
19:44 - Austin Hollins starting? Interesting. And boy did he just get schooled by Clarence Jackson. Really can't let that guy get off. I hope there's nothing going on with Rodney.
19:02 - Siena going zone here, and the Gophers hit threes on their first two possessions, one by Blake and one by Hollins. Both wide open, too. I read Siena isn't maybe the strongest defensive team, so the open shots will be there, just gotta keep knockin' 'em down. Siena has answered with a couple of threes of their own and leads 8-6, but neither of those were due to a defensive breakdown by the Gophers, so I'm not concerned yet.
17:33 - Beautiful move and reverse lay-in by Hollins. Boy does that kid look good. He might be better than Rodney Williams already.
16:37 - Hoffarber answers a Siena three-pointer (wide open) with one of his own (wide open). Not a ton of defense being played here.
15:58 - Al Nolen just hit a shake-and-bake step back jumper. I feel like I'm in bizarro world with Kevin, Gener, Feldman, and Fargas. Next thing you know I'm gonna get yelled at for eatin' olives.
15:43 - Another god damn three-pointer by Siena, and the Saints lead 18-13. The defense isn't even that bad, they're just hitting tough shots. Can't last, right?
15:10 - Nolen dribbles into the lane and picks up his dribble with no idea what he's going to do with the ball. Sigh.
14:29 - Rodney is in, and just passed up a jumper so he could throw the ball into the crowd instead. I wonder if Hollins has just straight up outplayed Williams to the point where he's earned the start. Wouldn't shock me.
13:44 - Siena goes man-to-man, forces Rodney into another turnover after trapping him in the corner. Siena leads 22-15, and I don't want to say I'm getting nervous, so I just won't say anything at all.
13:09 - Rodney drives to the hole. Shot got blocked, which obviously isn't ideal, but it's good to see him try to make that play. And then Jackson hits another three-pointer. Dude is out of his mind right now, with 14 points on 6-6 shooting. Also Siena as a team is shooting 10-12. Yes, that's 10-12. Remember in my preview how I said Jackson was the kind of guy who could single-handedly win this for Siena? Yeah, it's like that.
12:05 - Just saw that Georgia Tech is losing by ten to Kennesaw State late in the second half. The bottom of the ACC this year is just brutal. Like, I think the bottom of the Big Ten might end up being better.
10:22 - Rossiter finally gets on the board, going right by Sampson as if he was standing still. I gotta say man, right now Siena looks like they're playing on a whole different level than the Gophers. Not like the Gophers are playing poorly, but Siena just looks out of their mind good. You may consider me nervous.
9:34 - Nolen clangs a three.
8:50 - Very quick four straight for Sampson, boosted by a good steal, good rebound off his own miss, and good pass by the Hoff. Ok, I'm just going to say it. Blake should play every minute of every game this year. He's not the most talented player on the team, but he's their best player. Of course, as I'm typing that Jackson completely loses him around a couple of screens leading to a shooting foul, and reminding me why Blake can't play every minute of every game. If I had to sum up his offensive contributions vs. his defensive shortcomings in picture form, it would look like this:
You guess which is which.
7:06 - God Rodney Williams drives me crazy. He's now developed a sideways float on his jump shot, meaning that of the two things he did well last year, he no longer does one of them. He also just got schooled by a UTEP two-step by a white dude. I still have faith. But it's more like my faith that the Loch Ness Monster is real than my faith in gravity still working tomorrow.
5:56 - Georgia Tech is about to lose to Kennesaw. Really a banner season so far for the ACC.
3:26 - This game needs more Mbakwe.
2:28 - One handed monster jam by Mbakwe on a run-out off a great pass in transition from Hoffarber (and great catch by Reign Man II). Seriously, I should be coaching this team. Everything I say is right.
1:55 - Armelin with a great drive to pull the Gophers to within two. I gotta say, and I know it's early, but lookin' like Tubby found a couple of gems in this class in Armelin and Hollins. Those two are looking like they are both going to be outstanding four year players.
1:15 - Mbakwe with a nice baseline spin move into a lay-up and the foul, hits the free throw to give the Gophers back the lead at 33-32. Who was it who said the Gophers needed to get the ball to Mbakwe more? Genius.
HALF - Siena goes to half with a 34-33 lead because nobody can cover Jackson. He should cool off here in the second half and the Gophers have most of the momentum and seem to be figuring this thing out, so I'm not worried anymore. Gophers will end up winning by eleven.
19:40 - Another board for Hoffarber. I honestly wouldn't be shocked if he ends up getting a triple double at some point this year. I mean, he probably won't because 10 assists in a college game is pretty damn difficult to do, but it could happen.
18:08 - Gophers clang a couple of three-pointers, while Siena scores on a couple layups. The Saints are the more aggressive team right now. It's leading to a lot of turnovers, but also too many easy buckets.
15:47 - We head to the under 16 timeout with Siena still up, but just by a count of 42-41 after Hoffarber and Hollins each hit a three-pointer. I'll tell you what's driving me nuts in this game, and that's this incredible over reliance on the three pointer for offense. I know that it's what is open, as in other than a couple I don't think most of them have been forced, but they need to be making a more concerted effort to get the ball inside. Sampson and Mbakwe have been damn near unstoppable when they get a chance, so let's do that more often. If nothing else, they're getting doubled and opening up the outside even more.
14:38 - Gophers up two, and Siena is doing everything in their power to give this game away. Time to put this baby to bed.
13:40 - God damn Clarence Jackson. Another three.
12:32 - Nobody wants to win this game. It's just a turnover-fest right now. It would be like watching Wake Forest play Iowa, but if they decided to play at faster than their usual glacial pace. And also if Teen Wolf was on one of the teams, because guess who just hit another three-pointer? Yep, Clarence "Dickface" Jackson. This is like Lazelle Durden all over again. I wonder if he's related to Tyler Durden.
10:34 - Work it inside. Reign Man II gets another dunk. Work it inside. Rodney Williams lay-up. Gophers now lead 53-48, and in case their was any doubt that I'm a god damn basketball genius, I think we can put that debate to rest.
9:30 - Work it inside, missed layup but the double team leads to a Rodney Williams tip-dunk.
8:55 - Trevor Mbakwe's head looks like his brain is on the outside. And he's got another double-double tonight. It's pretty clear the lineup should be Nolen/Hollins/Hoffarber/Mbakwe/Sampson for now, with Joseph in for Hollins when he gets back Then you have a bench of Hollins, Armelin, Iverson,
6:40 - Rodney alley-oop, Sampson lay-in, and the Gophers are suddenly up 59-49. That alley-oop to Rodney was pretty incredible. He just sort of never came down after he jumped, waited for the ball, and dunked it. Even though I think he has holes in his game you could drive a truck through it isn't hard to see why pro scouts are drooling when they watch him play. He's the next Harold Minor.
3:53 - Gophers lead by 10 into the final TV timeout, and right now Siena is a we bit lost and hasn't made an actual field goal in something like 10 game minutes, mostly due to turnovers. Well, that and piss poor shooting. I think it's in their heads because when they have the ball now they look more like a group of second graders who don't know the rules - or the Gophers usual halfcourt offense. I don't know why it's so difficult to remember to just give the ball to Jesus Shuttlesjackson and get out of his way.
2:05 - Rossiter fouls out with 8 points and can't be more than a handful of boards. Really unimpressed, and I was looking forward to seeing him play since he's supposed to be a favorite for the MAAC Player-of-the-year award. Talk about a let-down. This is just like that movie about the werewolf with the guy from that movie with Alicia Silverstone.
1:55 - Six point game and Nolen misses the front-end right after Rodney hit just 1 of 2. Let's not make this interesting here, guys. Remember, they have Kyle Watson from Above the Rim out there.
1:14 - Four point game, Nolen at the line. Rattles home the first, thank god. Misses the second, but Kickass Mbakwe grabs the offensive board. Hoff at the line and I think it's time we put a notch in the win column.
Gophers win 76-69. Good win. Not a great win, but Siena is a solid team who threw their best shot at the Gophers, and Minnesota weathered the storm, shut Siena's offense down completely, and tore them apart in the paint after spending too much of the game living on the perimeter. Nicely done.
20:00 - Game hasn't started yet, we're currently watching the end of the Wake Forest/Hampton game that is inexplicably going down to the wire. Seriously, that Iowa/Wake Forest matchup in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge might feature the worst team in Big Ten history vs. the worst team in ACC history. I guess that's kind of historic, in it's own retarded way.
20:00 - I did finally watch the Gopher/Wofford game and paid like, 75% attention to it. Two things stood out for me: Ralph Sampson III looking like he actually wants to dominate fools this year, and Al Nolen doing three things I didn't think he was capable of: knocking down a three and doing in confidently, penetrating into the lane and aggressively attacking the basket, and getting into the lane and knowing exactly where his teammates were for the dish. If that was for real, and I'm not betting on it, the Gophers are going to be awfully tough to beat because he's still unguardable. And also I think I love Chip Armelin like a fat kid loves cake.
19:44 - Austin Hollins starting? Interesting. And boy did he just get schooled by Clarence Jackson. Really can't let that guy get off. I hope there's nothing going on with Rodney.
19:02 - Siena going zone here, and the Gophers hit threes on their first two possessions, one by Blake and one by Hollins. Both wide open, too. I read Siena isn't maybe the strongest defensive team, so the open shots will be there, just gotta keep knockin' 'em down. Siena has answered with a couple of threes of their own and leads 8-6, but neither of those were due to a defensive breakdown by the Gophers, so I'm not concerned yet.
17:33 - Beautiful move and reverse lay-in by Hollins. Boy does that kid look good. He might be better than Rodney Williams already.
16:37 - Hoffarber answers a Siena three-pointer (wide open) with one of his own (wide open). Not a ton of defense being played here.
15:58 - Al Nolen just hit a shake-and-bake step back jumper. I feel like I'm in bizarro world with Kevin, Gener, Feldman, and Fargas. Next thing you know I'm gonna get yelled at for eatin' olives.
15:43 - Another god damn three-pointer by Siena, and the Saints lead 18-13. The defense isn't even that bad, they're just hitting tough shots. Can't last, right?
15:10 - Nolen dribbles into the lane and picks up his dribble with no idea what he's going to do with the ball. Sigh.
14:29 - Rodney is in, and just passed up a jumper so he could throw the ball into the crowd instead. I wonder if Hollins has just straight up outplayed Williams to the point where he's earned the start. Wouldn't shock me.
13:44 - Siena goes man-to-man, forces Rodney into another turnover after trapping him in the corner. Siena leads 22-15, and I don't want to say I'm getting nervous, so I just won't say anything at all.
13:09 - Rodney drives to the hole. Shot got blocked, which obviously isn't ideal, but it's good to see him try to make that play. And then Jackson hits another three-pointer. Dude is out of his mind right now, with 14 points on 6-6 shooting. Also Siena as a team is shooting 10-12. Yes, that's 10-12. Remember in my preview how I said Jackson was the kind of guy who could single-handedly win this for Siena? Yeah, it's like that.
12:05 - Just saw that Georgia Tech is losing by ten to Kennesaw State late in the second half. The bottom of the ACC this year is just brutal. Like, I think the bottom of the Big Ten might end up being better.
10:22 - Rossiter finally gets on the board, going right by Sampson as if he was standing still. I gotta say man, right now Siena looks like they're playing on a whole different level than the Gophers. Not like the Gophers are playing poorly, but Siena just looks out of their mind good. You may consider me nervous.
9:34 - Nolen clangs a three.
8:50 - Very quick four straight for Sampson, boosted by a good steal, good rebound off his own miss, and good pass by the Hoff. Ok, I'm just going to say it. Blake should play every minute of every game this year. He's not the most talented player on the team, but he's their best player. Of course, as I'm typing that Jackson completely loses him around a couple of screens leading to a shooting foul, and reminding me why Blake can't play every minute of every game. If I had to sum up his offensive contributions vs. his defensive shortcomings in picture form, it would look like this:
7:06 - God Rodney Williams drives me crazy. He's now developed a sideways float on his jump shot, meaning that of the two things he did well last year, he no longer does one of them. He also just got schooled by a UTEP two-step by a white dude. I still have faith. But it's more like my faith that the Loch Ness Monster is real than my faith in gravity still working tomorrow.
5:56 - Georgia Tech is about to lose to Kennesaw. Really a banner season so far for the ACC.
3:26 - This game needs more Mbakwe.
2:28 - One handed monster jam by Mbakwe on a run-out off a great pass in transition from Hoffarber (and great catch by Reign Man II). Seriously, I should be coaching this team. Everything I say is right.
1:55 - Armelin with a great drive to pull the Gophers to within two. I gotta say, and I know it's early, but lookin' like Tubby found a couple of gems in this class in Armelin and Hollins. Those two are looking like they are both going to be outstanding four year players.
1:15 - Mbakwe with a nice baseline spin move into a lay-up and the foul, hits the free throw to give the Gophers back the lead at 33-32. Who was it who said the Gophers needed to get the ball to Mbakwe more? Genius.
HALF - Siena goes to half with a 34-33 lead because nobody can cover Jackson. He should cool off here in the second half and the Gophers have most of the momentum and seem to be figuring this thing out, so I'm not worried anymore. Gophers will end up winning by eleven.
19:40 - Another board for Hoffarber. I honestly wouldn't be shocked if he ends up getting a triple double at some point this year. I mean, he probably won't because 10 assists in a college game is pretty damn difficult to do, but it could happen.
18:08 - Gophers clang a couple of three-pointers, while Siena scores on a couple layups. The Saints are the more aggressive team right now. It's leading to a lot of turnovers, but also too many easy buckets.
15:47 - We head to the under 16 timeout with Siena still up, but just by a count of 42-41 after Hoffarber and Hollins each hit a three-pointer. I'll tell you what's driving me nuts in this game, and that's this incredible over reliance on the three pointer for offense. I know that it's what is open, as in other than a couple I don't think most of them have been forced, but they need to be making a more concerted effort to get the ball inside. Sampson and Mbakwe have been damn near unstoppable when they get a chance, so let's do that more often. If nothing else, they're getting doubled and opening up the outside even more.
14:38 - Gophers up two, and Siena is doing everything in their power to give this game away. Time to put this baby to bed.
13:40 - God damn Clarence Jackson. Another three.
12:32 - Nobody wants to win this game. It's just a turnover-fest right now. It would be like watching Wake Forest play Iowa, but if they decided to play at faster than their usual glacial pace. And also if Teen Wolf was on one of the teams, because guess who just hit another three-pointer? Yep, Clarence "Dickface" Jackson. This is like Lazelle Durden all over again. I wonder if he's related to Tyler Durden.
10:34 - Work it inside. Reign Man II gets another dunk. Work it inside. Rodney Williams lay-up. Gophers now lead 53-48, and in case their was any doubt that I'm a god damn basketball genius, I think we can put that debate to rest.
9:30 - Work it inside, missed layup but the double team leads to a Rodney Williams tip-dunk.
8:55 - Trevor Mbakwe's head looks like his brain is on the outside. And he's got another double-double tonight. It's pretty clear the lineup should be Nolen/Hollins/Hoffarber/Mbakwe/Sampson for now, with Joseph in for Hollins when he gets back Then you have a bench of Hollins, Armelin, Iverson,
6:40 - Rodney alley-oop, Sampson lay-in, and the Gophers are suddenly up 59-49. That alley-oop to Rodney was pretty incredible. He just sort of never came down after he jumped, waited for the ball, and dunked it. Even though I think he has holes in his game you could drive a truck through it isn't hard to see why pro scouts are drooling when they watch him play. He's the next Harold Minor.
3:53 - Gophers lead by 10 into the final TV timeout, and right now Siena is a we bit lost and hasn't made an actual field goal in something like 10 game minutes, mostly due to turnovers. Well, that and piss poor shooting. I think it's in their heads because when they have the ball now they look more like a group of second graders who don't know the rules - or the Gophers usual halfcourt offense. I don't know why it's so difficult to remember to just give the ball to Jesus Shuttlesjackson and get out of his way.
2:05 - Rossiter fouls out with 8 points and can't be more than a handful of boards. Really unimpressed, and I was looking forward to seeing him play since he's supposed to be a favorite for the MAAC Player-of-the-year award. Talk about a let-down. This is just like that movie about the werewolf with the guy from that movie with Alicia Silverstone.
1:55 - Six point game and Nolen misses the front-end right after Rodney hit just 1 of 2. Let's not make this interesting here, guys. Remember, they have Kyle Watson from Above the Rim out there.
1:14 - Four point game, Nolen at the line. Rattles home the first, thank god. Misses the second, but Kickass Mbakwe grabs the offensive board. Hoff at the line and I think it's time we put a notch in the win column.
Gophers win 76-69. Good win. Not a great win, but Siena is a solid team who threw their best shot at the Gophers, and Minnesota weathered the storm, shut Siena's offense down completely, and tore them apart in the paint after spending too much of the game living on the perimeter. Nicely done.
Sunday, November 14, 2010
Big Ten Wrap-Up, 11.15.2010
It was a pretty good week for the Big Ten, as long as you aren't a fan of the Iowa Hawkeyes. The Hawkeyes opened the Fran McCaffery era at home with a resounding thud of a loss to South Dakota State, 79-69, forcing just 10 turnovers and allowing the Jackrabbits to knock down 10 three-pointers. SDSU is not really supposed to contend in the Summit League, so this isn't a loss to a sneaky mid-major contender; this is a loss to a bad team by a really bad team. Suddenly my prediction of five total wins this year for Iowa is looking downright optimistic.
As far as the other teams go it was pretty much cupcake city. The best win definitely goes to our Minnesota Gophers, beating up the favorite to win the SoCon in Wofford, 69-55. Because of the mini-vacation that Mrs. W and I took (a vacation that ended up with us getting propositioned by swingers) I haven't had a chance to watch the game yet, but I have it on Tivo and will put some thoughts up on it soon, probably Tuesday to go along with any thoughts I have after the Siena game tonight. In any case, it was a nice win for the Gophers, and a good way to start the season. Particularly with the Devoe Joseph suspension it was important to start the year strong and they certainly did.
The other team worth highlighting here is the Illinois Fighting Illini. After struggling in their two exhibition games, the Illini seem to have hit their stride beating UC-Irvine by 14, Toledo by 39, and Southern Illinois by 18 to jump out to a 3-0 start. I still think Illinois is being overrated by a lot of people, but they are starting to look like a Big Ten contender.
COMING UP THIS WEEK
The Gophers take on Siena (previewed here) on Monday, and that kicks off a pretty good week of Big Ten hoops. On Tuesday Ohio State travels to #11 Florida in what should be a hell of a game, and then on Thursday a couple of tournaments get started: Minnesota goes to Puerto Rico to open against Sun Belt favorite Western Kentucky, hoping to get a second round matchup against North Carolina, while Illinois gets Texas (and then either Maryland or Pitt) in New York in the Coaches vs. Cancer tourney. Iowa travels to Xavier to get killed on Friday, while Penn State welcomes a sneaky Fairfield team that might end up walking away with an upset. Finally, the good games wrap up on Saturday with Wisconsin traveling to UNLV, and then the final Puerto Rico Tip-Off game for the Gophers, which will hopefully be the championship.
AROUND THE NATION
Not much in the way of marquee games or big upsets this past week, but Georgetown went into Old Dominion and won a battle of a game, while Temple knocked off Seton Hall in a game that way loom large when it comes time to talk bubbles at the end of the year. Other than that, the best win of the week (outside the Gopher win over Wofford) would probably go to Syracuse, who used a huge second half to beat a decent Northern Iowa team by 22. The Panthers aren't the class of Missouri Valley this year, but they'll be one of the better teams in the conference so beating them by over 20 is a nice win for the Orange.
Meanwhile, along with Iowa two other teams lost games they certainly shouldn't have: Siena getting beat by Vermont and Wake Forest losing to Stetson. While Wake was pretty much known this was going to be a rough year, I don't think anybody would have expected them to lose to a team like Stetson - a team that was legitimately one of the worst in the country last year and is usually right around that tier. The Siena loss is more puzzling because despite losing some key players they were still expected to be one of the better mid-major teams. Vermont isn't really supposed to contend in the American East, so this loss is a huge hit for Siena's at-large hopes already, and by extension will make a Gopher win over the Saints less impressive on paper.
As far as the other teams go it was pretty much cupcake city. The best win definitely goes to our Minnesota Gophers, beating up the favorite to win the SoCon in Wofford, 69-55. Because of the mini-vacation that Mrs. W and I took (a vacation that ended up with us getting propositioned by swingers) I haven't had a chance to watch the game yet, but I have it on Tivo and will put some thoughts up on it soon, probably Tuesday to go along with any thoughts I have after the Siena game tonight. In any case, it was a nice win for the Gophers, and a good way to start the season. Particularly with the Devoe Joseph suspension it was important to start the year strong and they certainly did.
The other team worth highlighting here is the Illinois Fighting Illini. After struggling in their two exhibition games, the Illini seem to have hit their stride beating UC-Irvine by 14, Toledo by 39, and Southern Illinois by 18 to jump out to a 3-0 start. I still think Illinois is being overrated by a lot of people, but they are starting to look like a Big Ten contender.
COMING UP THIS WEEK
The Gophers take on Siena (previewed here) on Monday, and that kicks off a pretty good week of Big Ten hoops. On Tuesday Ohio State travels to #11 Florida in what should be a hell of a game, and then on Thursday a couple of tournaments get started: Minnesota goes to Puerto Rico to open against Sun Belt favorite Western Kentucky, hoping to get a second round matchup against North Carolina, while Illinois gets Texas (and then either Maryland or Pitt) in New York in the Coaches vs. Cancer tourney. Iowa travels to Xavier to get killed on Friday, while Penn State welcomes a sneaky Fairfield team that might end up walking away with an upset. Finally, the good games wrap up on Saturday with Wisconsin traveling to UNLV, and then the final Puerto Rico Tip-Off game for the Gophers, which will hopefully be the championship.
AROUND THE NATION
Not much in the way of marquee games or big upsets this past week, but Georgetown went into Old Dominion and won a battle of a game, while Temple knocked off Seton Hall in a game that way loom large when it comes time to talk bubbles at the end of the year. Other than that, the best win of the week (outside the Gopher win over Wofford) would probably go to Syracuse, who used a huge second half to beat a decent Northern Iowa team by 22. The Panthers aren't the class of Missouri Valley this year, but they'll be one of the better teams in the conference so beating them by over 20 is a nice win for the Orange.
Meanwhile, along with Iowa two other teams lost games they certainly shouldn't have: Siena getting beat by Vermont and Wake Forest losing to Stetson. While Wake was pretty much known this was going to be a rough year, I don't think anybody would have expected them to lose to a team like Stetson - a team that was legitimately one of the worst in the country last year and is usually right around that tier. The Siena loss is more puzzling because despite losing some key players they were still expected to be one of the better mid-major teams. Vermont isn't really supposed to contend in the American East, so this loss is a huge hit for Siena's at-large hopes already, and by extension will make a Gopher win over the Saints less impressive on paper.
Thursday, November 11, 2010
Minnesota Golden Gophers Basketball: Upcoming Opponents (+ Devoe Joseph opinion)
After a couple quick appetizers of exhibition games, the Minnesota Gophers basketball team finally gets things underway with a quick couple of games against quality mid-major opponents in the Wofford Terriers tonight and the Siena Saints on Monday. Since I am going out of town this weekend for a much needed vacation away from the kids I won't be computering at all, so I might as well fire up two previews for the price of one. We love to give out sweet deals like that here at DWG, particularly on all your stationery or invitation needs (look to the right).
I'll start with Wofford, since they're first and that's a logical way to do things. The Terriers may be the Gophers' stiffest test that doesn't take place in Puerto Rico this offseason, because this team is very solid. They return four starters from last year's SoCon Champion team, a team that won 26 games last year and almost knocked off Wisconsin in the first round of the NCAA Tournament last year and almost beat Pitt in last year's season opener.
Most importantly amongst those returning starters is Minnesota-boy Noah Dahlman, the SoCon player of the year last season after 17 points and 6 rebounds per game while shooting 58% from the floor. He's an absolute brute who never stops working on the glass, and because of that relentlessness he's almost impossible to shut down (he's scored in double-figures 48 straight games). Unless he's added a jump shot in the offseason his range doesn't extend beyond the paint, and that should play well for the Gophers. He won't be able to out-muscle Colt Iverson or Trevor Mbakwe, and even if he can push Ralph around a little he's still got the reach on Dahlman. Wisconsin and Illinois both kept him in check last season (10 and 5, 13 and 2), and I expect the Gophers to do the same.
Dahlman is the only returnee who averaged more than 9.5 points per game last year, so there's no one player to focus on outside of him, but Wofford won a lot of games with their defense last year, ranking 41st in the country in defensive efficiency. Luckily for the Gophers, however, they come by that ranking mainly by defending the three well (not a key for the Gophers outside of Blake) and keeping teams off their offensive boards (not something the Gophers rely on). Most of all, I had the opportunity to watch Wofford play against Wisconsin as well as in the SoCon Championship against Appalachian State. They are slow. S-L-O-W. They caught a huge break getting Wisconsin in last year's tournament because both their pace of play and overabundance of non-athletically gifted white dudes helped Wofford to keep pace. That won't happen against Minnesota tonight. Wofford is a good team, but the Gophers shouldn't have any issues here.
Minnesota 71, Wofford 53.
Now we move on to a mini-Mid-Major dynasty in Monday's opponent, the Siena Saints. Siena has made the last three NCAA Tournaments, notching wins over Ohio State and Vanderbilt, but have some big shoes to fill - they lose last year's national assist leader in Ronald Moore, last year's MAAC player of the year in Alex Franklin, and maybe the best all-around player in program history in Edwin Ubiles - not to mention their coach Fran McCaffery who has gone on to national basketball power and totally good situation Iowa.
That's not to say the cupboard is bare, because the Saints return two absolutely excellent in players in 6-9 forward Ryan Rossiter and 6-4 guard Clarence Jackson - either of whom could end up winning the MAAC Player of the Year Award.
Rossiter, one of the goofiest looking mofos you're ever going to see, averaged 14 points and 11 rebounds per game last season, to go along with 1 steal, assist, and block. He's a smart player who uses an almost plastic-man type body to get himself into great position, and is one of the best offensive rebounders in the country. He doesn't have the size to bang with Iverson or Mbakwe or even Sampson, but he's smart and he's crafty. If Iverson starts on him I'd expect Colt to spend a good amount of time in foul trouble.
Jackson, who averaged 14 points per game last year, is a dynamic scorer who can hit from the outside (71 threes last year led the team) and can also put the ball on the floor and get to the rim. He's streaky, and can be shut down (11 games in single-digits) but he can also explode (9 games over 20 points). It would behoove the Gophers to not let Jackson get off, because he's the type that could single-handedly win a game for the Saints. Since he's probably a little bit too big for Al Nolen to take one-on-one, this could be a great chance for Rodney Williams to show that he can be a defensive stopper. He was the physical tools for it, so this could be a great test if he gets the matchup.
Outside of those guys Siena is a great big pile of unknown, since Jackson, Rossiter, and the three departed starters from last year made up 77% of the team's minutes played and 85% of their points scored. I'm sure there is talent there somewhere since McCaffery had created a bit of a mini-dynasty and that recruiting area is rich with potential hidden gems, but if the Gophers can shut down at least one of the Jackson/Rossiter duo they should have little trouble with the Saints. If this was last year I would be concerned, but since this team is in flux and has a new coach, I'm confident in the Gophers.
Also I want to mention that the Saints have a player named Just-in'love Smith. Ouch.
Minnesota 76, Siena 65
[Since I posted this I saw on Twitter that Devoe is suspended indefinitely due to non-academic off the court issues, and won't be playing until at least after Puerto Rico.
Snacks has since texted me that he "hates Tubby" and "hopes Devoe transfers." I'm not quite to that point, but it is rather frustrating how the Gophers are constantly dealing with off the court issues. Either Tubby is far too strict or he recruits nothing but headcases, either way this is hardly a ringing endorsement of the coach. No matter how you feel about the issue or whose feet you choose to lay the blame at, this clearly sucks ass. Once again a promising Gopher season is starting under a dark cloud.
I'll reserve further judgment until we know more (if we ever do), but it's time for the University to decide if it wants to be a basketball school or not I'm not saying they should let athletes get away with murder, but at UNLV Tre'Von Willis choked his girlfriend and got three games. At Michigan State Korie Lucious was busted for drunk driving and got just one game. At Memphis Jelan Kendrick missed a few practices after threatening his teammates, and it's looking like Lace Dunn might not miss any games at Baylor despite being arrested for domestic assault. And Devoe is going to miss at least five games for something that will likely be in the realm of skipping class or smoking a j.
Look, I understand some people's need to believe that their University "does things the right way" and "doesn't put up with any crap" and "only recruits good kids." I do. And that's all well and good, but, with all due respect to those of that view point, Fuck that. I don't give a crap what Devoe does in his spare time, and if he graduates or not is really the thing I care about least in the entire world. I want him to play ball, and I want my team to win games and I don't care how they do it or whether or not the players still call their mothers every week like good little boys or if they go to church every Sunday. I don't care about that, I just want to win, baby. Royce White was already run off, and Trevor Mbakwe almost followed him. Who's next?]
I'll start with Wofford, since they're first and that's a logical way to do things. The Terriers may be the Gophers' stiffest test that doesn't take place in Puerto Rico this offseason, because this team is very solid. They return four starters from last year's SoCon Champion team, a team that won 26 games last year and almost knocked off Wisconsin in the first round of the NCAA Tournament last year and almost beat Pitt in last year's season opener.
Most importantly amongst those returning starters is Minnesota-boy Noah Dahlman, the SoCon player of the year last season after 17 points and 6 rebounds per game while shooting 58% from the floor. He's an absolute brute who never stops working on the glass, and because of that relentlessness he's almost impossible to shut down (he's scored in double-figures 48 straight games). Unless he's added a jump shot in the offseason his range doesn't extend beyond the paint, and that should play well for the Gophers. He won't be able to out-muscle Colt Iverson or Trevor Mbakwe, and even if he can push Ralph around a little he's still got the reach on Dahlman. Wisconsin and Illinois both kept him in check last season (10 and 5, 13 and 2), and I expect the Gophers to do the same.
Dahlman is the only returnee who averaged more than 9.5 points per game last year, so there's no one player to focus on outside of him, but Wofford won a lot of games with their defense last year, ranking 41st in the country in defensive efficiency. Luckily for the Gophers, however, they come by that ranking mainly by defending the three well (not a key for the Gophers outside of Blake) and keeping teams off their offensive boards (not something the Gophers rely on). Most of all, I had the opportunity to watch Wofford play against Wisconsin as well as in the SoCon Championship against Appalachian State. They are slow. S-L-O-W. They caught a huge break getting Wisconsin in last year's tournament because both their pace of play and overabundance of non-athletically gifted white dudes helped Wofford to keep pace. That won't happen against Minnesota tonight. Wofford is a good team, but the Gophers shouldn't have any issues here.
Minnesota 71, Wofford 53.
Now we move on to a mini-Mid-Major dynasty in Monday's opponent, the Siena Saints. Siena has made the last three NCAA Tournaments, notching wins over Ohio State and Vanderbilt, but have some big shoes to fill - they lose last year's national assist leader in Ronald Moore, last year's MAAC player of the year in Alex Franklin, and maybe the best all-around player in program history in Edwin Ubiles - not to mention their coach Fran McCaffery who has gone on to national basketball power and totally good situation Iowa.
That's not to say the cupboard is bare, because the Saints return two absolutely excellent in players in 6-9 forward Ryan Rossiter and 6-4 guard Clarence Jackson - either of whom could end up winning the MAAC Player of the Year Award.
Rossiter, one of the goofiest looking mofos you're ever going to see, averaged 14 points and 11 rebounds per game last season, to go along with 1 steal, assist, and block. He's a smart player who uses an almost plastic-man type body to get himself into great position, and is one of the best offensive rebounders in the country. He doesn't have the size to bang with Iverson or Mbakwe or even Sampson, but he's smart and he's crafty. If Iverson starts on him I'd expect Colt to spend a good amount of time in foul trouble.
Jackson, who averaged 14 points per game last year, is a dynamic scorer who can hit from the outside (71 threes last year led the team) and can also put the ball on the floor and get to the rim. He's streaky, and can be shut down (11 games in single-digits) but he can also explode (9 games over 20 points). It would behoove the Gophers to not let Jackson get off, because he's the type that could single-handedly win a game for the Saints. Since he's probably a little bit too big for Al Nolen to take one-on-one, this could be a great chance for Rodney Williams to show that he can be a defensive stopper. He was the physical tools for it, so this could be a great test if he gets the matchup.
Outside of those guys Siena is a great big pile of unknown, since Jackson, Rossiter, and the three departed starters from last year made up 77% of the team's minutes played and 85% of their points scored. I'm sure there is talent there somewhere since McCaffery had created a bit of a mini-dynasty and that recruiting area is rich with potential hidden gems, but if the Gophers can shut down at least one of the Jackson/Rossiter duo they should have little trouble with the Saints. If this was last year I would be concerned, but since this team is in flux and has a new coach, I'm confident in the Gophers.
Also I want to mention that the Saints have a player named Just-in'love Smith. Ouch.
Minnesota 76, Siena 65
[Since I posted this I saw on Twitter that Devoe is suspended indefinitely due to non-academic off the court issues, and won't be playing until at least after Puerto Rico.
Snacks has since texted me that he "hates Tubby" and "hopes Devoe transfers." I'm not quite to that point, but it is rather frustrating how the Gophers are constantly dealing with off the court issues. Either Tubby is far too strict or he recruits nothing but headcases, either way this is hardly a ringing endorsement of the coach. No matter how you feel about the issue or whose feet you choose to lay the blame at, this clearly sucks ass. Once again a promising Gopher season is starting under a dark cloud.
I'll reserve further judgment until we know more (if we ever do), but it's time for the University to decide if it wants to be a basketball school or not I'm not saying they should let athletes get away with murder, but at UNLV Tre'Von Willis choked his girlfriend and got three games. At Michigan State Korie Lucious was busted for drunk driving and got just one game. At Memphis Jelan Kendrick missed a few practices after threatening his teammates, and it's looking like Lace Dunn might not miss any games at Baylor despite being arrested for domestic assault. And Devoe is going to miss at least five games for something that will likely be in the realm of skipping class or smoking a j.
Look, I understand some people's need to believe that their University "does things the right way" and "doesn't put up with any crap" and "only recruits good kids." I do. And that's all well and good, but, with all due respect to those of that view point, Fuck that. I don't give a crap what Devoe does in his spare time, and if he graduates or not is really the thing I care about least in the entire world. I want him to play ball, and I want my team to win games and I don't care how they do it or whether or not the players still call their mothers every week like good little boys or if they go to church every Sunday. I don't care about that, I just want to win, baby. Royce White was already run off, and Trevor Mbakwe almost followed him. Who's next?]
Wednesday, November 10, 2010
DWG Projected NCAA Tournament Teams
I figured I'd take a crack at projecting out who will be invited to the NCAA Basketball Tournament in March. Let's take a look at this when the tournament rolls around and see how I did.
American East (1): Maine
Atlantic 10 (3): Xavier, Temple, Richmond
ACC (6): Duke, North Carolina, NC State, Virginia Tech, Florida State, Maryland
Atlantic Sun (1): East Tennessee State
Big 12 (6): Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Texas, Missouri, Colorado
Big East (8): UCONN, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Pitt, St. Johns, Syracuse, Villanova, WVU
Big Sky (1): Weber State
Big South (1): Coastal Carolina
Big Ten (7): Minnesota, Illinois, Michigan State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Ohio State
Big West (1): UC-Santa Barbara
Colonial (2): VCU, Old Dominion
C-USA (2): Memphis, Southern Miss
Horizon (1): Butler
Ivy (1): Harvard
MAAC (1): Fairfield
MAC (1): Central Michigan
MEAC (1): Morgan State
Missouri Valley (2): Wichita State, Missouri State
Mountain West (4): San Diego State, BYU, New Mexico, UNLV
NEC (1): Central Connecticut State
Ohio Valley (1): Murray State
Pac-10 (3): Washington, UCLA, Arizona
Patriot (1): American
SEC (5): Miss State, Florida, Kentucky, Georgia, Ole Miss
Southern (1): Wofford
Southland (1): Stephen F. Austin
SWAC (1): Jackson State
Summit (1): Oakland
Sun Belt (1): Western Kentucky
WCC (1): Gonzaga
WAC (1): Utah State
Just missed: Seton Hall, Detroit, Dayton, Loyola-Marymount, George Mason, Tennessee
Wasn't that an exciting post?
Ok, I'll give you a little bit more and strongly recommend George Dohrmann's new book, Play their Hearts Out. It takes a look behind the scenes of the youth basketball machine and how it starts turning kids into commodities to be used and traded for money and prestige as early as 10-years old. It is a fascinating look into a weird, sometimes creepy world that turns a kids game being played by kids into big business. I couldn't put it down, and it's the gift that keeps on giving because most of the kids who are featured in the book are now freshman or sophomores in college and I keep seeing their names pop up playing for teams like Cal, Oregon State, New Mexico, and Maryland. In fact, the kid who hit the game-winner for Maryland tonight, Pe'Shon Howard, is one of the more prominent characters. I can't recommend it more highly. In fact, my brother is reading it now and my dad is reading it after him, but after that I can send it to somebody. If you want it for free, shoot me an email with your address.
American East (1): Maine
Atlantic 10 (3): Xavier, Temple, Richmond
ACC (6): Duke, North Carolina, NC State, Virginia Tech, Florida State, Maryland
Atlantic Sun (1): East Tennessee State
Big 12 (6): Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Texas, Missouri, Colorado
Big East (8): UCONN, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Pitt, St. Johns, Syracuse, Villanova, WVU
Big Sky (1): Weber State
Big South (1): Coastal Carolina
Big Ten (7): Minnesota, Illinois, Michigan State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Ohio State
Big West (1): UC-Santa Barbara
Colonial (2): VCU, Old Dominion
C-USA (2): Memphis, Southern Miss
Horizon (1): Butler
Ivy (1): Harvard
MAAC (1): Fairfield
MAC (1): Central Michigan
MEAC (1): Morgan State
Missouri Valley (2): Wichita State, Missouri State
Mountain West (4): San Diego State, BYU, New Mexico, UNLV
NEC (1): Central Connecticut State
Ohio Valley (1): Murray State
Pac-10 (3): Washington, UCLA, Arizona
Patriot (1): American
SEC (5): Miss State, Florida, Kentucky, Georgia, Ole Miss
Southern (1): Wofford
Southland (1): Stephen F. Austin
SWAC (1): Jackson State
Summit (1): Oakland
Sun Belt (1): Western Kentucky
WCC (1): Gonzaga
WAC (1): Utah State
Just missed: Seton Hall, Detroit, Dayton, Loyola-Marymount, George Mason, Tennessee
Wasn't that an exciting post?
Ok, I'll give you a little bit more and strongly recommend George Dohrmann's new book, Play their Hearts Out. It takes a look behind the scenes of the youth basketball machine and how it starts turning kids into commodities to be used and traded for money and prestige as early as 10-years old. It is a fascinating look into a weird, sometimes creepy world that turns a kids game being played by kids into big business. I couldn't put it down, and it's the gift that keeps on giving because most of the kids who are featured in the book are now freshman or sophomores in college and I keep seeing their names pop up playing for teams like Cal, Oregon State, New Mexico, and Maryland. In fact, the kid who hit the game-winner for Maryland tonight, Pe'Shon Howard, is one of the more prominent characters. I can't recommend it more highly. In fact, my brother is reading it now and my dad is reading it after him, but after that I can send it to somebody. If you want it for free, shoot me an email with your address.
Monday, November 8, 2010
Gophers outlast Winona State, Drive me Crazy
Have we seen this before? In an all to familiar twist, the Gophers really struggled in the half court against Winona. There was a lot of confusion and a lot of running down of the shot clock, leaving the guards to try to create on their own with single-digits left to shoot - sound familiar? What was happening was that Winona was doubling everywhere and everyone in the post, even going so far as to double the post before the ball was even delivered. This would lead to the guard with the ball trying to pass it into a post player with two guys on him, which, you'd think, would mean somebody was open.
And somebody was, but Winona was quick to recover, the open player wasn't making himself available in a passing lane, and the player with the ball wasn't making smart or quick decisions. This all leads to chaos, confusion, and a mere five point lead at halftime.
It was more of the same in half number two, leading to Ralph Sampson taking a pro range three while being blanket covered by his man and throwing it over the shot clock, and Colt Iverson putting it on the floor and trying to drive to the hole from the top of the key before having it knocked away. Thankfully Tubby pulled the line change and the second group was willing to get out and run, looking for opportunities in transition and quickly turned the small Gopher lead into almost twenty, showing how a team that was superior athletically could get a bunch of easy buckets by using that athleticism.
Things were pretty much fine after that. Winona made a game of it by hitting a crazy silly amount of three-pointers, and the Gophers won a game by six against a team they should have beaten by at least 20. I don't care that they're one of the best D-II teams, they're still a D-II team. But I really don't care about any of that, I really just care about the fact that they still can't run a proper half-court offense. Seriously, this worries me so much that my anticiperection for this season has now turned into a fear boner that they're going to let me down. Ugh. Maybe it would have been different if Devoe hadn't been hurt, or maybe he would have just been the one forcing up shots all the time. I don't know. I'm disgusted.
And Al Nolen is still Al Nolen. For all the good that is, and all the bad.
Two quick positives so I don't get accused of being all doom and gloom:
- Rodney Williams put the ball on the floor and drove to the hoop from the perimeter at least twice during the game, once successfully and once not, but he at least showed he can do it. He absolutely has all the potential ESPN keeps writing about. It's going to be fun to watch him put it all together.
- Maurice Walker showed some very nice moves in the paint, showcasing a real nice spin move and a soft touch around the hoop. Of course, it's a bit hard to truly evaluate him, considering Winona had nobody near his size, height-wise or weight-wise, and he may have weighed as much as any two Winona forwards, but still, he looked very good. As a fourth post guy, he's tough to beat.
Let's just hurry up and get to the real games. I don't want to waste all my righteous anger on games that don't count. I want to disappointed in games that actually matter in the standings.
And somebody was, but Winona was quick to recover, the open player wasn't making himself available in a passing lane, and the player with the ball wasn't making smart or quick decisions. This all leads to chaos, confusion, and a mere five point lead at halftime.
It was more of the same in half number two, leading to Ralph Sampson taking a pro range three while being blanket covered by his man and throwing it over the shot clock, and Colt Iverson putting it on the floor and trying to drive to the hole from the top of the key before having it knocked away. Thankfully Tubby pulled the line change and the second group was willing to get out and run, looking for opportunities in transition and quickly turned the small Gopher lead into almost twenty, showing how a team that was superior athletically could get a bunch of easy buckets by using that athleticism.
Things were pretty much fine after that. Winona made a game of it by hitting a crazy silly amount of three-pointers, and the Gophers won a game by six against a team they should have beaten by at least 20. I don't care that they're one of the best D-II teams, they're still a D-II team. But I really don't care about any of that, I really just care about the fact that they still can't run a proper half-court offense. Seriously, this worries me so much that my anticiperection for this season has now turned into a fear boner that they're going to let me down. Ugh. Maybe it would have been different if Devoe hadn't been hurt, or maybe he would have just been the one forcing up shots all the time. I don't know. I'm disgusted.
And Al Nolen is still Al Nolen. For all the good that is, and all the bad.
Two quick positives so I don't get accused of being all doom and gloom:
- Rodney Williams put the ball on the floor and drove to the hoop from the perimeter at least twice during the game, once successfully and once not, but he at least showed he can do it. He absolutely has all the potential ESPN keeps writing about. It's going to be fun to watch him put it all together.
- Maurice Walker showed some very nice moves in the paint, showcasing a real nice spin move and a soft touch around the hoop. Of course, it's a bit hard to truly evaluate him, considering Winona had nobody near his size, height-wise or weight-wise, and he may have weighed as much as any two Winona forwards, but still, he looked very good. As a fourth post guy, he's tough to beat.
Let's just hurry up and get to the real games. I don't want to waste all my righteous anger on games that don't count. I want to disappointed in games that actually matter in the standings.
Big Ten Wrap-up, 11/8/2010
Last week the rest of the Big Ten team's kicked off their exhibition slates (Illinois started the week before) and every team in the conference played a game. Surprise! They went 11-0, with only Illinois struggling in their game (and Michigan, but they suck). It doesn't really tell us much as far as beating up on this level of competition but we can find some player trends that can be interesting. You can find my thoughts on your beloved Gopher hoopsters here, but there were some interesting developments from other teams:
Finally, here are the futures bets I've got for the season. If you can still get any of these teams at anywhere near these odds I would highly recommend jumping on them, although most of them have come considerably down. Because I'm a genius.
TO WIN NCAA CHAMPIONSHIP:
Washington 60-1
Minnesota 150-1
Virginia Tech 200-1
San Diego State 100-1
NC State 200-1
Arizona 100-1
Baylor 30-1
TO WIN CONFERENCE REGULAR SEASON TITLE:
Minnesota 12-1 (BIG TEN)
St. Johns 12-1 (BIG EAST)
Missouri 6-1 (BIG 12)
I also kind of like NC State in the ACC at 8-1, but Duke is so loaded this year it's basically throwing money away betting against them.
- Illinois turned the ball over 20 and 23 times in their two exhibition games, leading to smaller than expected winning margins (10 and 9 points). I expect this to be their achilles heel throughout the year, since they haven't had an actual point guard since Chester Frazier graduated. And yes, I'm aware Demetri McCamey led the Big Ten in assists last year. I don't care. You will never convince me he's an actual point guard.
- Maurice Creek scored 16 points in 20 minutes during Indiana's win over Franklin College. It's not so much the dominating inferior competition, as it is coming back from a big time knee injury to take a team-high 14 shots in only 20 minutes that tells me he's being aggressive, which likely means there are no lingering issues.
- I was wondering if Purdue would end up with a third scorer emerging or if it would be a collective Robbie Hummel pick-me-up, and the first game was a collective effort with six guys scoring between six and nine points in their game against Indianapolis (Moore and Johnson led with 11 and 13), including talented freshmen Terone and Anthony Johnson.
- Draymond Green has added the three-point shot to his repertoire. Last year Green shot just 16 three-pointers all year, making two. Last week in Michigan State's game against Saginaw Valley State he shot three, making two. Interesting. Also if he and Maurice Walker ever guard each other in a game that floor is caving in.
- Jershon Cobb is going to make an impact for Northwestern after starting and scoring 12 points in 21 minutes. He's a top 150 recruit in the country, I'm assuming the first for the Wildcats, and they're looking to him immediately, which makes me think he's probably as good as advertised. Adding a fourth scorer makes Northwestern far more dangerous and far more relevant.
- Tim Hardaway, Jr. is certainly not afraid to shoot, and I'm guessing he's going to kill the Wolverines more than once this year. Despite shooting 1-7 from three and 2-10 overall he led the team in shot attempts and three-point attempts.
- John Gasser might be the non-descript, non-heraled white freshman who makes the biggest splash for the Badgers this year. He led Wisconsin freshmen in minutes (20) and points (9), and fun fact: he's from Port Washington, Wisconsin, which is where the hit TV show Step-by-Step took place. I always loved Al. Once she got old enough, I mean.
- Talor Battle is still not getting any help from his front court. Their senior starting trio tallied just a combined 18 points against a severly undersized East Stroudsberg team with nobody over 6-6 on the roster. If Penn State is going to make a surprising run to an NCAA bid, Battle's going to need somebody to help out in the paint. This doesn't bode well.
- I mentioned in my Big Ten preview that the one big weakness for the Buckeyes could be a point guard, but it perhaps freshman Aaron Craft is up for the task because he notched 8 assists to go along with 12 points in the Ohio State rout of Walsh. It's also tough to get a true gauge on somebody's value when their team wins 102-56, and Adam Boone once looked like the next Magic in an exhibition game, but this certainly isn't a bad sign for OSU.
- Iowa is still terrible, even if they did manage to win by 45. And Eric May will probably have to carry the team. Have fun with that.
COMING UP THIS WEEK
Illinois gets things rolling in the 2k Sports Coaches vs. Cancer Classic, playing UC-Irvine tonight and Toledo on Wednesday as the 2010-2011 College Basketball season gets officially rolling. Other Big Ten teams play their final exhibition tune-ups during the week before getting things started for real over the weekend, mainly versus cupcake city. The only two games that could be remotely competitive are the Gophers vs. Wofford and Northwestern vs. Northern Illinois. Wofford won the Southern Conference last year, almost upset Wisconsin in round 1 of the NCAA Tournament, and return four starters including conference POY (and Minnesota boy) Noah Dahlman. It should be a good test to see exactly where the Gophers stand this year. Northwestern vs. NIU is only interesting because it's rare a Big Ten team opens on the road, but the Wildcats should be able to handle them without issue.
AROUND THE NATION
Still no real games, just a bunch of exhibitions that nobody really reports on unless it's Duke, so no real comments here. Of note though is the play of Harrison Barnes, a preseason All-American as a freshman. Let's just say he didn't exactly live up to the hype in his first exhibition game, tallying just .
Coming up, the season gets started for Pitt, Texas, and Maryland early as they join Illinois in the Coaches vs. Cancer tourney and tip-off Monday, with Pitt facing a good tester right out of the box in Rhode Island. Then everybody gets going over the weekend, with the best games probably Seton Hall @ Temple, Georgetown @ Old Dominion, and Northern Iowa @ Syracuse on Friday, San Diego State @ Long Beach State and Weber State @ Utah State on Saturday, and South Dakota State @ Iowa on Sunday (LOL, at least it should be competitive).
Coming up, the season gets started for Pitt, Texas, and Maryland early as they join Illinois in the Coaches vs. Cancer tourney and tip-off Monday, with Pitt facing a good tester right out of the box in Rhode Island. Then everybody gets going over the weekend, with the best games probably Seton Hall @ Temple, Georgetown @ Old Dominion, and Northern Iowa @ Syracuse on Friday, San Diego State @ Long Beach State and Weber State @ Utah State on Saturday, and South Dakota State @ Iowa on Sunday (LOL, at least it should be competitive).
College hoops is here. It's finally here.
Finally, here are the futures bets I've got for the season. If you can still get any of these teams at anywhere near these odds I would highly recommend jumping on them, although most of them have come considerably down. Because I'm a genius.
TO WIN NCAA CHAMPIONSHIP:
Washington 60-1
Minnesota 150-1
Virginia Tech 200-1
San Diego State 100-1
NC State 200-1
Arizona 100-1
Baylor 30-1
TO WIN CONFERENCE REGULAR SEASON TITLE:
Minnesota 12-1 (BIG TEN)
St. Johns 12-1 (BIG EAST)
Missouri 6-1 (BIG 12)
I also kind of like NC State in the ACC at 8-1, but Duke is so loaded this year it's basically throwing money away betting against them.
Friday, November 5, 2010
Minnesota Gopher Basketball 2010: Player outlook
Much like Tom Cullen I managed to survive Captain Trips, and I also managed to watch the game against Northeastern State on replay on the Big Ten Network (well, three-quarters of it because after that it was like yawn), so here are some thoughts about the players who matter for the year. Overall, I really think this has a chance to be a very, very special season. M-O-O-N, that spells Go Gophers.
Maverick Ahanmisi: He looked pretty shaky in Canada, but was better against NE St. Early reports made it seem as if he couldn't dribble with his left hand or kept dribbling off his foot or couldn't play point guard, but he didn't look like he was a complete waste. If he ends up playing a lot of significant minutes that won't be good, but I'm cautiously optimistic he might be an ok back-up by the end of his time here.
Chip Armelin: The latest Gopher freshman signing for the class and reportedly the most athletic, he looks exactly as advertised - incredible athlete and a bit of a project. He showed he has a pretty good looking jump shot and is definitely a great athlete, but he was also out of position a ton on defense - mainly because he can't seem to harness his energy and is a bit of a spaz. Dare I say it, but he reminded me quite a bit of Rico Tucker. We all know Dan Monson failed to reign in and teach the highest potential gopher of all-time, sad story that is, but with Tubby here now I have faith Chip is going to end up a very, very good player. Just maybe not this year.
Elliott Eliason: Reports are that he's going to redshirt, and that makes sense given the Gophers' depth in the paint and the fact that it wouldn't kill him to put on some weight before taking on the big ten wide bodies. Still, from what I've seen I think he could contribute this year if he was needed. He seems to have a nice feel for the game and good fundamentals. Should be a quality player down the road.
Blake Hoffarber: Blake be Blake. I think he's turned into just the type of the player a contending team needs. He's obviously an amazing dead-eye shooter who has developed a hair trigger release, but he's also a very smart player, which leads to good passes, good decisions, and getting more rebounds than a player of his size and athletic ability should. I'm still a bit worried about him against the more athletic teams and their ability to expose him on defense and/or shut him down on the offensive end, but he's going to be the difference between winning and losing at least once this year. Could be the next Lee Humphrey.
Austin Hollins: Looking like he might be the best of this year's freshman, Hollins has shown an ability to play defense, handle the ball, shoot the perimeter shot, and put it on the floor and get to the rim. Just a really solid all-around game and very impressive for a player so young. I don't know how he'll hold up to a full season of Big 10 ball because he's still a bit slight, but he's going to contribute this year and be a big part of how far the team can go.
Colt Iverson: Iverson has gone from completely uncoordinated oaf two years ago to semi-skilled brutish oaf coming into this year (think Jeff Hagen with less fat and more elbows). Over the last two years he's added an awkward drop-step to a power layup and an awkward jump hook to a repertoire that used to be made up of "layup" and "dunk", so it was a solid step forward. I sort of think he's hit his ceiling skill-wise, but with better fundamentals and more confidence he could probably get himself in the 10 pt/8 reb range by his senior year. That's about a million years better than I expected, so I salute you, sir. Also plays the Miles Tarver role by making it clear he'll mix it up if you start effing with the high priced talent. Probably the most important role he plays on this team, and I'm not kidding. Still gets most of his points by out-muscling weaker and smaller players, so it will be interesting to see how he adjusts when he goes against defenders of similar stature, something he was unable to do last season.
Devoe Joseph: This is the scorer right here. Played limited minutes against NE St. due to an injury which shouldn't be a problem, but from what I've seen he's willingly and ably stepped into the Lawrence Westbrook role of the guy who can get his shot if nothing else is working. Hopefully this year most of that comes in the flow of the offense and we don't see as much of the "pass it around for 30 seconds, get nothing, and then throw it to the guard and make him get his own shot."
Trevor Mbakwe: Oh my baby santa jesus. Built like Deebo but with the athletic ability of Sidney Deane, Mbakwe is going to be an absolute force this year. I don't know if the Gophers have had anybody with that kind of combination - ever. I don't know if he has a jump shot, or at least I haven't noticed (probably because I'm too busy drooling), and we haven't seen him have to take his game at anybody anywhere near his skill or size level yet, but I am insanely optimistic here. Reign Man II has arrived.
Al Nolen: I said after last season that if Nolen could do what Eric Harris did, and that's take his game (great defender, great penetrator, good distributor, terrible shooter) and add a dependable three-point jump shot to it he'd be damn near unstoppable. I haven't seen any indication that it has happened and he wasn't looking to score at all against NE St., but then again he didn't have to because the Gophers could just do whatever they wanted whenever they wanted. It will be interesting to see how he responds against legit competition when he has no choice but to show he can make a bucket or two. If he's even a capable outside shooter it can elevate this team another level. Like Blake, I expect he will be the difference between winning and losing in at least one game this year, although I'm less confident of the the column he can put that game in.
Ralph Sampson III: I've made no secret of my love for Ralph on here and my firm belief that he can one day be a Big Ten POY contender, and he's shown that his outside touch on the jumper has gotten even better. I fear he might have a propensity to fall in love with the perimeter a bit too much, and he showed a tendency the last couple of years to completely disappear in games when the opponent's big men were knocking him around a bit, but hopefully he's shed that bit of softness and is willing to mix it up. With Mbakwe, Iverson, and Walker on the team he doesn't have to be a banger, but he can't shy away from battles under the rim either.
Maurice Walker: Definitely a big boy, but he looks like he's already slimmed down a bit since Canada and hopefully Tubby can keep him moving in that direction. He has good hands and good footwork, so less body he has to carry around the more athletic and quicker he's going to be. Should be solid for 10 minutes or so a game this year, but we won't really know how good or how ungood he will be this season until we see him against a team that has post players who don't get knocked out of bounds by his sheer size.
Rodney Williams: Still dunks like a crazy person and still hits threes, which are both very good things, but I'm still hoping to see him develop a mid-ranger jumper and/or learn to take the ball and attack the rim. All the potential in the world is there, and he'll be very good this year, but if he had Austin Hollins' game with his ability he'd be a Big Ten POY candidate right now. This is not a knock on Rodney, he's still just a sophomore, but I see so much ability and just hope Tubby can help him take it up a notch. If nothing else, he's looking like a good candidate to be an all league type defender right now.
In case you couldn't tell, I feel a bit too optimistic about the team this year, and it has nothing to do with dismantling NE State. Every Big Ten team (with the exception of Illinois this year) dismantles their exhibition opponents. It has more to do with looking at this collection of talent and knowing we have Tubby on the bench to direct it. Honestly at this point I'm thinking anything less than the Sweet 16 is a disappointment. I am crazy? M-O-O-N, that spells homer.
Maverick Ahanmisi: He looked pretty shaky in Canada, but was better against NE St. Early reports made it seem as if he couldn't dribble with his left hand or kept dribbling off his foot or couldn't play point guard, but he didn't look like he was a complete waste. If he ends up playing a lot of significant minutes that won't be good, but I'm cautiously optimistic he might be an ok back-up by the end of his time here.
Chip Armelin: The latest Gopher freshman signing for the class and reportedly the most athletic, he looks exactly as advertised - incredible athlete and a bit of a project. He showed he has a pretty good looking jump shot and is definitely a great athlete, but he was also out of position a ton on defense - mainly because he can't seem to harness his energy and is a bit of a spaz. Dare I say it, but he reminded me quite a bit of Rico Tucker. We all know Dan Monson failed to reign in and teach the highest potential gopher of all-time, sad story that is, but with Tubby here now I have faith Chip is going to end up a very, very good player. Just maybe not this year.
Elliott Eliason: Reports are that he's going to redshirt, and that makes sense given the Gophers' depth in the paint and the fact that it wouldn't kill him to put on some weight before taking on the big ten wide bodies. Still, from what I've seen I think he could contribute this year if he was needed. He seems to have a nice feel for the game and good fundamentals. Should be a quality player down the road.
Blake Hoffarber: Blake be Blake. I think he's turned into just the type of the player a contending team needs. He's obviously an amazing dead-eye shooter who has developed a hair trigger release, but he's also a very smart player, which leads to good passes, good decisions, and getting more rebounds than a player of his size and athletic ability should. I'm still a bit worried about him against the more athletic teams and their ability to expose him on defense and/or shut him down on the offensive end, but he's going to be the difference between winning and losing at least once this year. Could be the next Lee Humphrey.
Austin Hollins: Looking like he might be the best of this year's freshman, Hollins has shown an ability to play defense, handle the ball, shoot the perimeter shot, and put it on the floor and get to the rim. Just a really solid all-around game and very impressive for a player so young. I don't know how he'll hold up to a full season of Big 10 ball because he's still a bit slight, but he's going to contribute this year and be a big part of how far the team can go.
Colt Iverson: Iverson has gone from completely uncoordinated oaf two years ago to semi-skilled brutish oaf coming into this year (think Jeff Hagen with less fat and more elbows). Over the last two years he's added an awkward drop-step to a power layup and an awkward jump hook to a repertoire that used to be made up of "layup" and "dunk", so it was a solid step forward. I sort of think he's hit his ceiling skill-wise, but with better fundamentals and more confidence he could probably get himself in the 10 pt/8 reb range by his senior year. That's about a million years better than I expected, so I salute you, sir. Also plays the Miles Tarver role by making it clear he'll mix it up if you start effing with the high priced talent. Probably the most important role he plays on this team, and I'm not kidding. Still gets most of his points by out-muscling weaker and smaller players, so it will be interesting to see how he adjusts when he goes against defenders of similar stature, something he was unable to do last season.
Devoe Joseph: This is the scorer right here. Played limited minutes against NE St. due to an injury which shouldn't be a problem, but from what I've seen he's willingly and ably stepped into the Lawrence Westbrook role of the guy who can get his shot if nothing else is working. Hopefully this year most of that comes in the flow of the offense and we don't see as much of the "pass it around for 30 seconds, get nothing, and then throw it to the guard and make him get his own shot."
Trevor Mbakwe: Oh my baby santa jesus. Built like Deebo but with the athletic ability of Sidney Deane, Mbakwe is going to be an absolute force this year. I don't know if the Gophers have had anybody with that kind of combination - ever. I don't know if he has a jump shot, or at least I haven't noticed (probably because I'm too busy drooling), and we haven't seen him have to take his game at anybody anywhere near his skill or size level yet, but I am insanely optimistic here. Reign Man II has arrived.
Al Nolen: I said after last season that if Nolen could do what Eric Harris did, and that's take his game (great defender, great penetrator, good distributor, terrible shooter) and add a dependable three-point jump shot to it he'd be damn near unstoppable. I haven't seen any indication that it has happened and he wasn't looking to score at all against NE St., but then again he didn't have to because the Gophers could just do whatever they wanted whenever they wanted. It will be interesting to see how he responds against legit competition when he has no choice but to show he can make a bucket or two. If he's even a capable outside shooter it can elevate this team another level. Like Blake, I expect he will be the difference between winning and losing in at least one game this year, although I'm less confident of the the column he can put that game in.
Ralph Sampson III: I've made no secret of my love for Ralph on here and my firm belief that he can one day be a Big Ten POY contender, and he's shown that his outside touch on the jumper has gotten even better. I fear he might have a propensity to fall in love with the perimeter a bit too much, and he showed a tendency the last couple of years to completely disappear in games when the opponent's big men were knocking him around a bit, but hopefully he's shed that bit of softness and is willing to mix it up. With Mbakwe, Iverson, and Walker on the team he doesn't have to be a banger, but he can't shy away from battles under the rim either.
Maurice Walker: Definitely a big boy, but he looks like he's already slimmed down a bit since Canada and hopefully Tubby can keep him moving in that direction. He has good hands and good footwork, so less body he has to carry around the more athletic and quicker he's going to be. Should be solid for 10 minutes or so a game this year, but we won't really know how good or how ungood he will be this season until we see him against a team that has post players who don't get knocked out of bounds by his sheer size.
Rodney Williams: Still dunks like a crazy person and still hits threes, which are both very good things, but I'm still hoping to see him develop a mid-ranger jumper and/or learn to take the ball and attack the rim. All the potential in the world is there, and he'll be very good this year, but if he had Austin Hollins' game with his ability he'd be a Big Ten POY candidate right now. This is not a knock on Rodney, he's still just a sophomore, but I see so much ability and just hope Tubby can help him take it up a notch. If nothing else, he's looking like a good candidate to be an all league type defender right now.
In case you couldn't tell, I feel a bit too optimistic about the team this year, and it has nothing to do with dismantling NE State. Every Big Ten team (with the exception of Illinois this year) dismantles their exhibition opponents. It has more to do with looking at this collection of talent and knowing we have Tubby on the bench to direct it. Honestly at this point I'm thinking anything less than the Sweet 16 is a disappointment. I am crazy? M-O-O-N, that spells homer.
Wednesday, November 3, 2010
Gopher post Coming
I will have a post on the Gopher exhibition game and my expectations for the season probably tomorrow night or maybe Friday. Unfortunately, I got a flu shot last week and have now been hit with a terrible flu (whatever happened to "First do no harm"?) so I had to skip the game so I could sleep for 12 straight hours.
Monday, November 1, 2010
Big Ten College Basketball 2010 Preview
With the Gophers tipping off tonight I'm beyond geeked. I am incredibly fired up for both the Gophers and college basketball in general, and in that spirit, here is my Big Ten preview.
1. Ohio State Buckeyes. I'm not entirely sure why everybody seems to have forgotten or overlooked these guys, but they could be every bit as good as last year or even better. Evan Turner is a big loss, there's no doubt about that, but either or both of David Lighty or William Buford could make a leap and fill the scoring role. They have Diebler back to do what Diebler does, the defensive presence of Dallas Lauderdale back for the 8th year, and they add a major weapon in freshman center Jared Sullinger, Rivals #5 incoming recruit for this season. I had a chance to watch him a little bit this year, and he is absolutely the real deal and a complete beast down low. I think we're going to see a real battle if him and Mbakwe square off. All of that plus what ESPN ranks as the #2 recruiting class in the country and these guys are loaded again. The real question is who handles the ball? Remember, Turner was the de facto point guard last season and they never really developed anybody behind him. But if one of the wings can fill the Turner role or freshman Aaron Craft (#111 overall, #28 point guard) is good enough to play right away, the Buckeyes will be in the national picture.
2. Michigan State Spartans. I was pretty sure Sparty was going to be the favorite, but there is just too much negative news coming out of East Lansing these days. Chris Allen's transfer, Kalin Lucas's injury, Korie Lucious's suspension (2 games), Durrell Summers injury, Garrick Sherman's injury, freshman Adreian Payne's injury, allegations of sexual misconduct - it's a lot to deal with. Not that I would ever doubt Tom Izzo, who just continues to get everything out of his team and continues to routinely make Final Fours. Not that it's all him, of course. Don't forget Sparty did make the Final Four last year, only loses Allen and Raymar Morgan, and gains more talent with the #10 recruiting class in the country according to ESPN. Maybe it's nothing more than me trying to be contrarian because I'm bored with Michigan State's excellence, but despite the talent it seems things may be lining up for a disappointing year. Which, in East Lansing, means a five seed and a final four run.
3. Illinois Fighting Illini. I don't like this team. I don't like them at all, and I think it's mostly because I don't like Demetri McCamey's style or his stupid face, but you can't deny they have some serious sleeper potential. I know they missed the tournament last year and eventually lost to Dayton (yuck) in the NIT but they felt like they were just on the verge and they return everybody. Super annoying point guard who can win or lose a game single-handedly? Check. Super tall white dork who prefers the perimeter to the paint? Check. Strong as hell power forward who grabs every rebound and makes up for having a bit of a dandy as your center? Check. Two super athletic freshmen (now sophomores) and all the inconsistency that comes with it but should be better this year? Check. And they're adding three top 100 guys, the worst of whom is ranked #84. The Illini seem to underachieve each year under Weber since that incredible Dee Brown/Deron Williams team, but this year is probably his most talented squad since then.
4. Purdue Boilermakers. Tough to know exactly where to slot the Boilers after the Robbie Hummel injury, but the sneak peek last year sweet 16 run coupled with the fact that JaJuan Johnson and E'Twaun Moore still make up one hell of a 1-2 punch lead me to believe that we don't exactly need to be throwing any pity parties. Don't forget they'll also have their point guard, Lewis Jackson, healthy and for the entire year, and what appears to be no depth looking at stats is really just a byproduct of the Big Three dominating the ball (and rightly so). In reality, junior Ryne Smith and sophomore D.J. Byrd were Rivals top 150 players coming out of high school, Kelsey Barlow is a great athlete who I think has the potential to become a terrific all-around player, and the Boilers welcome a couple more top 100 guys this year in guards Anthony Johnson and Terone Johnson. Yeah, losing Hummel hurts their national championship aspirations, and somebody is going to have to become the "tough guy" in the paint, but they're going to be just fine.
5. Minnesota Gophers. I'm actually tempted to put the Gophers as high as third, but then I remember that nothing ever goes right for a Minnesota team, my hands start to tremble, and I begin silently - but uncontrollably - weeping (not dissimilar to my reaction every time Al Nolen picks the ball up in the lane with no idea where he's going).This is the most talented Gopher team in years, and that's without any improvement from Rodney Williams. If his offensive game starts to blossom this year I'm scared to think of how good they might actually be. They've got the inside covered, scorers on the perimeter including a bona fide go-to guy, good perimeter shooting, and good defense. If Nolen is smart with the ball and/or learned how to hit a jump shot and Rodney makes that leap it could be time to start talking Sweet 16 - or even beyond. But, because I don't/can't think positively I'm putting them at fifth - safely in the tourny with something like a six seed. Yes, I'm calling that the "worst case scenario" this year.
6. Wisconsin Badgers. Am I underrating Wisconsin for the 50th year in a row? Yeah, maybe. But screw that if you think I'm going to give those red dorks any actual credit. Really though, replacing Jason Bohannon and Trevon Hughes is going to be awfully difficult. Jordan Taylor is there and he will ease the transition by sliding in for Hughes, but who replaces Bohannon? And behind Taylor and Leuer (who, by the way, is going to have an absolutely monster year - you watch) who's here? A bunch of dorky, unproven white dudes with weird names like Jarmusz and Nankivil. And guess what the recruiting class is made up of? A bunch of three-star, nondescript white guys including a guy with the first name Duje. On paper this looks like a crappy team. Just like every year. So they'll probably prove me wrong and be in the running for a Big Ten title. And I'll hate every minute of it.
7. Northwestern Wildcats. The Kevin Coble quitting thing definitely takes their overall talent level down, but with John Shurna emerging last year Coble would be kind of redundant anyway since they're so similar, and I don't think that's the key to this team making their first ever tournament, either. I think that mostly rests in the hands of Michael Thompson. "Juice", as dorks like to call him, has been a quality point guard for the Wildcats for the past three years, and made a big leap forward last year to become one of the top point guards in the conference. If he can make a similar leap this year (or if Drew Crawford is ready to be Jordan Crawford) that will be the little extra push this team needs to make the tournament, since it's mostly the same team as last year. Of course, it also wouldn't hurt to play a little defense, because as frustrating as it can be to watch the Gophers try to figure out that 1-3-1, Northwestern was actually a terrible defensive team last year, ranking above only Iowa in the Big Ten in defensive efficiency rating. So, I guess, yeah. They should probably fix that.
8. Indiana Hoosiers. I think these guys have a little bit of sleeper potential, assuming Maurice Creek is 100% good to go. Not so much to make the NCAA Tournament but they could knock off a couple of the conference big boys when they come to Bloomington this year. Creek is tremendous, and I really like Christian Watford's game. If those two, along with Jeremiah Rivers and Derek Elston, can improve this year it will make the Hoosiers dangerous, and did you know Verdell Jones scored more than 14 points per game last year? I seriously had no idea, I guess he can score. Indiana is on the way back, but Tom Crean brings in a subpar class this year after whiffing on basically every top target they went after. Keep an eye on what happens with Cody Zeller, the #20 player in the class of 2011 who is from Indiana. If Crean can keep him home that could signal that Indiana is ready to get back to the upper class of the conference.
9. Penn State Nittany Lions. Well, this is the last chance for the sublime Talor Battle to make it to the NCAA tournament and I gotta say it doesn't look good since the team will be nearly identical to last year's team that won just 11 total games. To have a good front court in the Big Ten you need to big, experienced, and talented. Penn State's trio of David Jackson, Andrew Jones, and Jeff Brooks are big (average of 6-8 and 220 lbs.), and experienced (all three are seniors). Two out of three ain't bad - except in this case, where it is. Battle should get some help from incoming freshman point guard Taran Buie, a Rivals top 150 recruit and Battle's half-brother. But even if he's as good as Battle, which he won't be, they're going to need something from the paint, and I don't see where it's going to come from.
10. Michigan Wolverines. Beilein certainly had them moving in the right direction, but now after a disappointing year that saw Michigan not play in any postseason tournament Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims are gone, along with the 53% of the teams scoring, 43% of its rebounding, 34% of its assists, 47% of its blocks, and 41% of its steals that those two provided - and the cupboard is pretty bare. Darius Morris is going to end up being a very good point guard, but beyond him their best player is Zack Novak, and he is the very definition of average. There's some talent coming in, including Tim Hardaway's kid, Al Horford's brother, and Evan Smotrycz, a 6-8 shooter who plays perfectly for Beilein's system, but not nearly enough to make this team relevant this year. Somehow, Michigan is going through a rebuilding period for the second time in four years.
11. Iowa Hawkeyes. They already had last place locked up, and then word came out that their only good player, Matt Gatens, is out for an indefinite amount of time with a knee injury [ok, so it turns out it's only three weeks]. Honestly, they are going to struggle to win five games this year, and I don't mean in the Big Ten, I mean total. Looking at their schedule, it's not a cake walk, and I only see four games they'll be favored in (South Dakota St, LA-Monroe, SIU-Edwardsville, and Idaho State) and one other they might be favored in (LA Tech) - that's it. They'll be underdogs in every other game. Now, they'll probably manage an upset here or there, but if the Hawks get to 10 total wins this year it would be a miracle. New coach Fran McCaffery wants to play a more uptempo style so they'll be less boring now and in the future, but this year is going to be brutal. Think 2010 Gopher football brutal.
Now let's get it on.
Other Previews:
Mountain West
SEC
Atlantic 10
Big East
Pac 10
ACC
Big 12
3. Illinois Fighting Illini. I don't like this team. I don't like them at all, and I think it's mostly because I don't like Demetri McCamey's style or his stupid face, but you can't deny they have some serious sleeper potential. I know they missed the tournament last year and eventually lost to Dayton (yuck) in the NIT but they felt like they were just on the verge and they return everybody. Super annoying point guard who can win or lose a game single-handedly? Check. Super tall white dork who prefers the perimeter to the paint? Check. Strong as hell power forward who grabs every rebound and makes up for having a bit of a dandy as your center? Check. Two super athletic freshmen (now sophomores) and all the inconsistency that comes with it but should be better this year? Check. And they're adding three top 100 guys, the worst of whom is ranked #84. The Illini seem to underachieve each year under Weber since that incredible Dee Brown/Deron Williams team, but this year is probably his most talented squad since then.
7. Northwestern Wildcats. The Kevin Coble quitting thing definitely takes their overall talent level down, but with John Shurna emerging last year Coble would be kind of redundant anyway since they're so similar, and I don't think that's the key to this team making their first ever tournament, either. I think that mostly rests in the hands of Michael Thompson. "Juice", as dorks like to call him, has been a quality point guard for the Wildcats for the past three years, and made a big leap forward last year to become one of the top point guards in the conference. If he can make a similar leap this year (or if Drew Crawford is ready to be Jordan Crawford) that will be the little extra push this team needs to make the tournament, since it's mostly the same team as last year. Of course, it also wouldn't hurt to play a little defense, because as frustrating as it can be to watch the Gophers try to figure out that 1-3-1, Northwestern was actually a terrible defensive team last year, ranking above only Iowa in the Big Ten in defensive efficiency rating. So, I guess, yeah. They should probably fix that.
11. Iowa Hawkeyes. They already had last place locked up, and then word came out that their only good player, Matt Gatens, is out for an indefinite amount of time with a knee injury [ok, so it turns out it's only three weeks]. Honestly, they are going to struggle to win five games this year, and I don't mean in the Big Ten, I mean total. Looking at their schedule, it's not a cake walk, and I only see four games they'll be favored in (South Dakota St, LA-Monroe, SIU-Edwardsville, and Idaho State) and one other they might be favored in (LA Tech) - that's it. They'll be underdogs in every other game. Now, they'll probably manage an upset here or there, but if the Hawks get to 10 total wins this year it would be a miracle. New coach Fran McCaffery wants to play a more uptempo style so they'll be less boring now and in the future, but this year is going to be brutal. Think 2010 Gopher football brutal.
Now let's get it on.
Other Previews:
Mountain West
SEC
Atlantic 10
Big East
Pac 10
ACC
Big 12
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
