Friday, January 6, 2017

Path to the Tournament

I can't believe I'm saying this, but the Gophers have a clear, and relatively simple, to an NCAA bid at this point.  I know, I know.  It's the Gophers, nothing is too dreadful to be out of their reach.  But at 14-2, with (according to ESPN) the #5 RPI and #9 strength of schedule the computer numbers are rock solid.  The SoS won't change much since it's all Big Ten play from here, and the RPI will only change dramatically if they go into freefall, which torpedo their chances anyway.  Those are great, great numbers.  The only other teams top 10 in both metrics are Villanova, Florida, and Kentucky.  Whoever put this schedule did a great job, but the team had to come through and they certainly have to this point.

14-2.  Who would have guessed.  And of the fourteen wins they have one over a Top 25 team (Arkansas), three more over Top 50 teams (Purdue, UT-Arlington, Vandy), and three more over Top 100 teams (Northwestern, Arkansas State, Lafayette).  Since the two losses are both against top 50 teams, things look pretty good.  Some of those RPIs will probably shift a bucket here and there, but make no mistake right now, this is a bullet proof resume.

Unfortunately right now only means a good start, and there is a whole big rest of the season left.  I believe the Gophers need 9 conference wins at this point to guarantee a bid.  Eight might do it as well with the computer numbers, but nine would be solid lead pipe lock status.  So let's see how we get there, shall we?

Looking at kenpom, since spreads tend to be pretty close to his estimates or at least within a few points, the Gophers will be favored in 3 games by double digits.  Call these the gimmies:  home vs. Iowa, home vs. Penn State, and home vs. Nebraska.  Those games are far later in the season than I'd like since I'd prefer to bang them out now rather than sweat them when they might become must wins, but those are three easy games.

There are seven more games (7!!!) they should be favored in:  vs. Ohio State, @Penn State, vs. Maryland, @Illinois, @Rutgers, vs. Indiana, and vs. Michigan.  If they take care of the three gimmies, and man, I really do wish those games weren't at the tail end of the season, they only have to go 4-3 in this group.  4-3!

The remaining games are the two vs. Wisconsin, @ Michigan State, @ Maryland, and @ Ohio State and the Gophers have shown they can win on the road already this year, so none of those are out of the realm of possibility.

Let's look at this in even a simpler way.  Kenpom also gives a % chance of victory.  Even if the Gophers only win the games he pegs them at 70% or greater, that still gets them to 8 conference wins, and leaves nine other games to pick up one win - just one!

There are plenty of red flags if you dig into their advanced stats but I am choosing to ignore that now because they have a really, really simple path to make the tournament and they are looking really, really good and are really, really fun.  In case you can't tell, yes, I've bought in.  That never ends well.  Hold on to your butts.


rghrbek said...

Agreed with your post completely. Beating OSU last night, although not a huge win, but a top 100 win, was a good victory. Especially since we have seen gopher teams lose those types of games in the past. Often.

Ranked 24 in the AP. No more hiding. Should be short lived with two more road games coming up. Hoping for a split. Don't care about rankings, just want BIG victories.

John R said...

How about a preview for tonight's game?? Or a live game blog??? Go all in brother!!! :-)

rghrbek said...

Here hoping he did not do it.
What a train wreck. Some offensive issues to be certain. This is not a great shooting team, so they need to get penetration (yes I just said that) more. However, MSU is or will be an elite defensive team by the end of the year.

The Daily Gopher has a nice breakdown of the gophers offense, and where they struggle and what needs to be done. Good read. I did not provide the link because I am fat and lazy. Google it.

rghrbek said...

We got him!

WWWWWW said...

Pretty good get. The recruiting part of the Pitino experience is definitely a trend in the right direction. The coaching part seems to wildly vary from game to game, half to half, minute to minute, but hopefully that'll catch up to the recruiting.

rghrbek said...

Agreed on the recruiting vs. coaching thing.

People pretty fired up about the in state recruits this year (at the time). Washington was a better get than any of those guys (guards), at least on paper. Plus the gophers need a lights out shooter (see this years team), and got that with Harris. Not too bothered about the two guys Wisconsin plucked from here either. Except that they are classic sconi types. White, and will fill some type of need and win more games than if they were gophers.

Have modest hopes for the game tomorrow...especially with how this offense has been performing.

I do hate bucky though.