When Brian Dozier first broke in with the Twins in 2012 he had zero power, no plate discipline, was a really bad shortstop, and looked like another meaningless triple A call-up in a meaningless season. Last season he nearly doubled his walk rate and increased his power quite a bit, and the move to 2B turned him into an adequate fielder, leading to a WAR of 2.8 for the season, ranking him 8th best in the majors among second basemen. I still wasn't buying it. But now we have this season.
Dozier has made some real, positive changes. His walk rate has gone from 4.7% in his rookie year to 8.2% last year and is all the way at 13.2% this year. Though his average has stayed nearly the same in all three seasons (.234-.244-.246), this has resulted in a marked improvement in his on-base percentage (.271-.312-.351). He has gone from a laughable option as a leadoff hitter that just told you how truly horrible the Twins were to a legit leadoff guy who leads the majors in runs scored. If he can figure out a way to get that average up you'd really have something here, but Dozier's plate discipline in the bigs has finally got up to what he showed in the minors and it's showing some real positive results.
He's done it by drastically reducing the number of pitches he swings at, both in and out of the strike zone, and he's making more contact and although his line drive rate is down those lost liners are going as fly balls rather than ground balls and they are flying to the wall and over it, driving a huge power spike. Dozier's 11 home runs this year is tops among all 2B, and his ISO took another jump this year so far and ranks #3 for the position and currently ranks above guys like Carlos Gonzalez, Joey Votto, Matt Kemp, and Ryan Howard. Yes you're reading that correctly - Dozier is showing more power than those guys this year. As tempting as it could be to feel like this is a fluke, his steady increase in both walks and power without much of a change in strikeouts or average feels like this is for real. He was this player in the minors once he got comfortable, so maybe 2+ years into this thing he's grown into his batting skills. Not for nothing, but his BABIP this year is just .254, and although his career number is going to be a little below .300 because of how many flyballs he hits, that tells me he's even been a little unlucky this year - maybe there's a .280 hitter lurking in here somewhere.
But wait there's more. Turns out Dozier is a hell of a base runner. Ultimate Base Running is a tricky stat and who knows the accuracy, but attempting to award value to runners who go from 1st to 3rd on a single, end up with a double instead of getting thrown out trying to stretch for an extra base, and tagging up successfully seems like a worthwhile endeavor, and Dozier is excellent at these things. Looking at these things along with his 12 steals in 16 attempts and Fangraphs awards him 3.5 runs above replacement so far this year based solely on his base running alone. That may not sound like a ton, but Fangraphs calls anything above 4 "Great" and he's nearly there already. In fact, his current ranking is #2 in all of baseball behind Dee Gordon with the value he creates on the base paths. This isn't a fluke either, as he finished exactly at that 3.5 number for all of last season, which ranked him 26th in the majors and 4th among all second basemen.
Fielding isn't his strong suit, but since switching to second he's been adequate. Fangraphs has him slightly below average, costing the Twins one run over the course of the season with his fielding. He doesn't make many errors and turns a nice double play, he just doesn't have outstanding range. All-in-all this doesn't really hurt the Twins much, and he more than makes up for hit with his bat and base running.
Put it all together and what do you have? A second baseman who ranks #3 in WAR in the entire major leagues (behind Ian Kinsler and Chase Utley). It seems insane but he's got a really good chance at going 20/20 this year with a longshot at 30/30. More than likely the HR/FB rate will have to come down simply because it's so far above his career number, but given his steady career progression and the fact that it's not a completely ridiculous number (29 players have a higher ratio right now), it's not a guarantee. If his BABIP ticks up a bit and everything stays the same you have yourself a hell of a second baseman and one of the best hitters in the league at that position, and one only making about a half million dollars.
Fangraphs values a win above replacement at about $5 million, and with Dozier's WAR of 2.9 last year it says he was worth $13.8 mill last season, and he's already at 1.9 and $10.3 early this season. Much of his value comes from his base running, which is something that should help keep him under the radar and the Twins have him under team control through 2018 so there's no rush, but if he ends up finishing the season out as he's started it it might be wise for the Twins to get ahead of the arbitration and sign him to a deal, because I'm starting to suspect we might be looking at a Minnesota fixture at second base. And I can't believe I'm typing that, but Dozier has the look of a player who has actually developed from a project to a quality ballplayer. I know it's rare that we see something like that around here so it might be tough to recognize, but I am now a fan. Plus there's that hair.
Tuesday, May 27, 2014
Monday, May 19, 2014
Monday Musings
I know, I'm a terrible blogger. But it's really not my fault. Gopher basketball is in a dead period for recruiting, so there's nothing to talk about there, and the Twins are sucking the life out of me once again on their way to another probably 90+ loss season. How depressing is it that they're at .500 at the quarter mark of the season, but it feels like they're overachieving on a massive level? It just feels like they're about to go on a 3-17 streak. Anyway, since I have a bye in softball tonight, might as well put the time to good use. I mean use. Here's some stuff:
- I suppose the biggest news locally is that Kevin Love has come out and said he won't sign an extension with the Wolves and plans to test free agency after next season - which means there's no chance in hell the Wolves end up signing him. It was somehow both completely expected and a huge stomach punch at the same time. Kahn really fucked us by not giving Love that fifth year (plus the whole out clause thing), and the only hope was that Flip could somehow trick him into staying. Looks like it didn't work, so it's time to shift into getting as much as the Wolves can for him. I would prefer it happen prior to this year's draft since it's so loaded, but Love wants to go to a contender and it's hard finding one of those with both young and promising players and draft picks, and assuming nobody will trade for him unless he agrees to sign a long term deal with them Love's going to need to be on board with his destination. Some possibilities:
- I suppose I may need to do a Phil Hughes breakdown at some point, given that he's been lights out in his last four games. Seriously, a 1.37 ERA, a WHIP under 1.00, an opponent's slash line of .230/.228/.300, and 20 Ks vs. 0 BBs in 26 innings is really impressive stuff. He'll throw again on Wednesday in San Diego, and if he throws another gem, which seems likely given both the opponent and the park, I'll put up a post looking at his results a little more in depth.
- Remember how I hit the trifecta in the Kentucky Derby and was going Sizzler? Well I hit it for the Preakness too. Same bet, same risk amount. Big difference, however, in payout. The Preakness had 10 horses, while the Derby had 19, so odds were significantly reduced already, and then the Preakness had 3 big favorites hit the first three spots while the Derby at least had one significant longshot sneak in there. So the Derby payout was $1,541. The Preakness payout? $38. No joke. Was quite the letdown, but at least I've hit two now so I'll be playing for my own Triple Crown in a couple weeks.
- Looks like Justin Morneau's skull seems to finally be ok seeing as he's off to a hell of a start. He's hitting .327, which ranks 5th in the NL, with 9 homers (6th) and 32 RBI (4th). Seriously once teammate Troy Tulowitzki finally gets hurt Morneau might be the front runner for MVP. His power is way up, with an ISO near his career high in his MVP year, and although you can at least partially credit Coors for that, Morneau deserves the credit for cutting his K rate nearly in half and getting back down to where it was in his prime years. He's being more aggressive, particularly at balls in the strike zone, and is hammering them pretty good. His HR/FB rate is probably unsustainable so the home runs will probably taper off a bit, but he's in line for a pretty damn good season. Here's a nerdy article talking about how he's one of the top players when it comes to hammering the ball compared to last season.
- Among major league starters the Twins' have three of the highest 15 WHIPS - #1 Kevin Correia at 1.68, #10 Ricky Nolasco at 1.53, and #15 Kyle Gibson at 1.47. That, of course, doesn't include Mike Pelfrey who got shut down with a fake injury with a WHIP of 1.99. I mean that's just like what? Doesn't something need to be done at this point? From the constant injuries that go from day-to-day to season ender without a trip to the DL, to the jettisoning of any talented player if they don't play "the Twins way", to this constant need to go back to the same shitty veterans like Matt Guerrier and Jason Bartlett just because they've been Twins before, to the in season roster mis-management that leads to not having a center fielder but having four shortstops this organization is a complete mess. I need to write a whole post on this before I find myself down the rabbit hole here. To sum up:
- I was going to try to hit on the Gophers recruiting targets for 2015, but holy hell are Richard Pitino and the boys busy. According to 247sports.com they have 26 offers out to 2015 unsigned players and I just really don't feel like going through all of that right now. There are various levels of interest from the recruits, so I'll just hit a couple of the highlights (all rankings from 247 industry composite number) -
PG Jarvis Johnson (Minneapolis, MN), #81 overall/#18 PG - A De La Salle kid and the first legitimate shot for Pitino to keep the border closed on the players he wants. At all but the top programs keeping the borders closed on your top talent is a good way to build a program, and a guy like Johnson is good enough to boost the Gophers without being so good he's got programs you can't say no to after him - although Michigan State did just get involved so gulp. The Gophers are considered a pretty big favorite over Wisconsin for his services, but the whole Sparty thing throws everything off. Pretty important recruit here.
SG Jimmy Whitt (Columbia, MO), #96 overall/23 SG - This guy is piling up offers left and right, and although Arkansas is considered the favorite I've seen his name pop up around the Gophers a couple of times and there are so many teams involved things are still pretty murky. One wrinkle is it looks like he digs Kansas but they haven't offered yet, so most likely once Kansas misses out on some of their top targets they'll move on to Whitt and he'll sign immediately even though he acted like he liked all these other schools because Kansas is jerks.
SF Danjel Purifoy (Centreville, AL), #43 overall/#10 SF - Worth noting as he's the highest rated player who is given "Warm" interest in the Gophers by 247, along with every SEC school and Maryland, Michigan, and Wichita. Yes, Kentucky has reportedly offered but I'm guessing he's a back burner type for them, just given Calipari's ability to grab top 10-ish recruits at every position every year. Purifoy should get you seriously excited given he's an absolutely insane athlete who can handle the ball. He'd come in and immediately start for the Gophers and he can score, defend, and rebound already. His jumper isn't very good right now but when nobody can stop your drive you can be a bit more patient with that. This guy, we want.
PF Alex Illikainen (Grand Rapids, MN), #65 overall, #17 PF - If you could say the Gophers have one traditional recruiting strength regardless of coach, it's been out state Minnesota kids. I'm trying to remember a non-city kid from the state who the Gophers wanted and didn't get and I can't think of one. The closest I can come is Cody Johnson who ended up at Iowa State but I don't think the Gophers really recruited him. I guess you could count J.P. Macura if you wanted but I meant more country kids, not places like Lakeville, and the whole coaching change thing makes it a crap shoot. In any case, the Gophers should be in decent shape for Illikainen, although the competition isn't from anyone who strikes particular fear into my heart (Cal, Creighton, Iowa State, and Indiana are the other schools who have offered and he's shown interest in). He's a perfect stretch four who can also run the floor well and finish in transition, so he not only is from Minnesota but he'd fit Pitino's system perfectly. He's pretty much a Gopher Hole wet dream, and in this case I can't blame them.
C Akolda Manyang (Duluth, MN), #1 overall JUCO, #1 overall JUCO C - Pulling kids from Junior College is always a crap shoot as their are some incredible success stories and some disasters and everything in between, but he's highly rated, he's seven feet tall, and he's at least got some other high majors after him (Oklahoma, Arizona State). I promise if things heat up I'll try to track down some kind of scouting or more info on him, but for now he's really tall and some people like him.
Honestly if Pitino got an all Minnesota class (with Manyang, Illikainen and Johnson) that would be a pretty good class and make those weirdos who want the team to be like, only Minnesota kids happy too. Two top 100 kids and the top Juco would be a nice step up for the program and a natural build, made all the easier by it being local kids. That being said, Pitino is so aggressive and he has so many offers out to so many top kids I'm hoping that after so many near misses last year he finally lands somebody that is like wow - #22 Allonzo Trier, #39 Eric Davis, #42 Jalen Adams, #21 Brandon Ingram, #6 Chieck Diallo, #27 Moustapha Diagne, and #16 Doral Moore are all in play to various degrees. Hopefully he gets one (or more).
- I suppose the biggest news locally is that Kevin Love has come out and said he won't sign an extension with the Wolves and plans to test free agency after next season - which means there's no chance in hell the Wolves end up signing him. It was somehow both completely expected and a huge stomach punch at the same time. Kahn really fucked us by not giving Love that fifth year (plus the whole out clause thing), and the only hope was that Flip could somehow trick him into staying. Looks like it didn't work, so it's time to shift into getting as much as the Wolves can for him. I would prefer it happen prior to this year's draft since it's so loaded, but Love wants to go to a contender and it's hard finding one of those with both young and promising players and draft picks, and assuming nobody will trade for him unless he agrees to sign a long term deal with them Love's going to need to be on board with his destination. Some possibilities:
- LAKERS: The long rumored destination given Love's ties to LA, this is going to be a tough one to make work. The Lakers have a ridiculous amount of money tied up in Kobe ($30m) and Gasol ($19m) and would almost certainly have to include Gasol to make the money work and that does the Wovles very little good. They also have basically zero interesting young players with the possible exception of Kendall Marshall. They do have the sixth slot in the lottery in this year's draft, but they've already traded their 2015 and 2017 first round picks, which means they can't trade 2016. No chance Love gets to the Lakers without a third team getting involved.
- CHICAGO: Taj Gibson and Jimmy Butler are a decent starting point to get a trade done, and the Bulls have #16 and #19 in this year's draft, and Chicago has 2015 first rounders from both Sacramento and Cleveland. Gibson, Butler, and four first round picks would normally be enough to get it done but both those 2015 picks have some weird protections on them that actually mean they're either going to be non-lottery picks or no picks at all. Probably the front-runner.
- GOLDEN STATE: The Warriors can offer the best package of players, giving either Harrison Barnes or Klay Thompson as the centerpiece and maybe including either David Lee or Andrew Bogut. They have zero draft picks to trade, however, having given up their 2014 and 2017 already. The Warriors would likely need to get a third team involved, but starting with Barnes or Thompson is a good jumping off point.
- BOSTON: I'm assuming the Wolves have no interest in Rondo, but Boston can still start with Jeff Green and Kelly Olynyk which is a decent enough start. More interestingly, the Celtics have the #5 spot in the lottery in 2014 and the #17 pick as well, along with three 2015 firsts, and two first in each of 2016, 2017, and 2018 (thanks Brooklyn!). I'm not sure if Boston's involved at all, and they're further from contention than anybody else on this list, but the combination of draft picks and the ability to use Rondo to entice a third team to throw some stuff in makes Boston the team I'd most like to see Love traded to (also it's nice to have traditions, and Minnesota stars going to Boston is a tradition as old as time).
- PHOENIX: The Suns have the last spot in the lottery this year and picks 18 and 27 as well, and will get the Wolves pick if it falls to #14. They also have the Lakers' 2015 first rounder. Assuming they won't give up Erik Bledsoe there isn't much here player wise, but I can already see the Wolves trying to talk fans into some combination of the two Morris twins and Archie Goodwin.
- KNICKS: They're going to come up because they're New York, but they have no chance of getting a trade done. Their only asset is Tim Hardaway, because they've completely traded away their next three drafts. The Knicks' only hope is that a trade doesn't get done and they can get him as a free agent.
Best case scenario is some of these teams and others get together and somehow the Wolves end up with a huge haul. Something like the Wolves get a bunch of the Celtics picks, and the Celtics ship Rondo to the Bulls who then throw an extra pick or Jimmy Butler or somebody the Wolves way. Of course, I've been a Minnesota fan for long enough to expect a terrible trade. They'll probably deal him straight up for Andrew Bogut.
- I suppose I may need to do a Phil Hughes breakdown at some point, given that he's been lights out in his last four games. Seriously, a 1.37 ERA, a WHIP under 1.00, an opponent's slash line of .230/.228/.300, and 20 Ks vs. 0 BBs in 26 innings is really impressive stuff. He'll throw again on Wednesday in San Diego, and if he throws another gem, which seems likely given both the opponent and the park, I'll put up a post looking at his results a little more in depth.
- Remember how I hit the trifecta in the Kentucky Derby and was going Sizzler? Well I hit it for the Preakness too. Same bet, same risk amount. Big difference, however, in payout. The Preakness had 10 horses, while the Derby had 19, so odds were significantly reduced already, and then the Preakness had 3 big favorites hit the first three spots while the Derby at least had one significant longshot sneak in there. So the Derby payout was $1,541. The Preakness payout? $38. No joke. Was quite the letdown, but at least I've hit two now so I'll be playing for my own Triple Crown in a couple weeks.
- Looks like Justin Morneau's skull seems to finally be ok seeing as he's off to a hell of a start. He's hitting .327, which ranks 5th in the NL, with 9 homers (6th) and 32 RBI (4th). Seriously once teammate Troy Tulowitzki finally gets hurt Morneau might be the front runner for MVP. His power is way up, with an ISO near his career high in his MVP year, and although you can at least partially credit Coors for that, Morneau deserves the credit for cutting his K rate nearly in half and getting back down to where it was in his prime years. He's being more aggressive, particularly at balls in the strike zone, and is hammering them pretty good. His HR/FB rate is probably unsustainable so the home runs will probably taper off a bit, but he's in line for a pretty damn good season. Here's a nerdy article talking about how he's one of the top players when it comes to hammering the ball compared to last season.
- Among major league starters the Twins' have three of the highest 15 WHIPS - #1 Kevin Correia at 1.68, #10 Ricky Nolasco at 1.53, and #15 Kyle Gibson at 1.47. That, of course, doesn't include Mike Pelfrey who got shut down with a fake injury with a WHIP of 1.99. I mean that's just like what? Doesn't something need to be done at this point? From the constant injuries that go from day-to-day to season ender without a trip to the DL, to the jettisoning of any talented player if they don't play "the Twins way", to this constant need to go back to the same shitty veterans like Matt Guerrier and Jason Bartlett just because they've been Twins before, to the in season roster mis-management that leads to not having a center fielder but having four shortstops this organization is a complete mess. I need to write a whole post on this before I find myself down the rabbit hole here. To sum up:
- I was going to try to hit on the Gophers recruiting targets for 2015, but holy hell are Richard Pitino and the boys busy. According to 247sports.com they have 26 offers out to 2015 unsigned players and I just really don't feel like going through all of that right now. There are various levels of interest from the recruits, so I'll just hit a couple of the highlights (all rankings from 247 industry composite number) -
PG Jarvis Johnson (Minneapolis, MN), #81 overall/#18 PG - A De La Salle kid and the first legitimate shot for Pitino to keep the border closed on the players he wants. At all but the top programs keeping the borders closed on your top talent is a good way to build a program, and a guy like Johnson is good enough to boost the Gophers without being so good he's got programs you can't say no to after him - although Michigan State did just get involved so gulp. The Gophers are considered a pretty big favorite over Wisconsin for his services, but the whole Sparty thing throws everything off. Pretty important recruit here.
SG Jimmy Whitt (Columbia, MO), #96 overall/23 SG - This guy is piling up offers left and right, and although Arkansas is considered the favorite I've seen his name pop up around the Gophers a couple of times and there are so many teams involved things are still pretty murky. One wrinkle is it looks like he digs Kansas but they haven't offered yet, so most likely once Kansas misses out on some of their top targets they'll move on to Whitt and he'll sign immediately even though he acted like he liked all these other schools because Kansas is jerks.
SF Danjel Purifoy (Centreville, AL), #43 overall/#10 SF - Worth noting as he's the highest rated player who is given "Warm" interest in the Gophers by 247, along with every SEC school and Maryland, Michigan, and Wichita. Yes, Kentucky has reportedly offered but I'm guessing he's a back burner type for them, just given Calipari's ability to grab top 10-ish recruits at every position every year. Purifoy should get you seriously excited given he's an absolutely insane athlete who can handle the ball. He'd come in and immediately start for the Gophers and he can score, defend, and rebound already. His jumper isn't very good right now but when nobody can stop your drive you can be a bit more patient with that. This guy, we want.
PF Alex Illikainen (Grand Rapids, MN), #65 overall, #17 PF - If you could say the Gophers have one traditional recruiting strength regardless of coach, it's been out state Minnesota kids. I'm trying to remember a non-city kid from the state who the Gophers wanted and didn't get and I can't think of one. The closest I can come is Cody Johnson who ended up at Iowa State but I don't think the Gophers really recruited him. I guess you could count J.P. Macura if you wanted but I meant more country kids, not places like Lakeville, and the whole coaching change thing makes it a crap shoot. In any case, the Gophers should be in decent shape for Illikainen, although the competition isn't from anyone who strikes particular fear into my heart (Cal, Creighton, Iowa State, and Indiana are the other schools who have offered and he's shown interest in). He's a perfect stretch four who can also run the floor well and finish in transition, so he not only is from Minnesota but he'd fit Pitino's system perfectly. He's pretty much a Gopher Hole wet dream, and in this case I can't blame them.
C Akolda Manyang (Duluth, MN), #1 overall JUCO, #1 overall JUCO C - Pulling kids from Junior College is always a crap shoot as their are some incredible success stories and some disasters and everything in between, but he's highly rated, he's seven feet tall, and he's at least got some other high majors after him (Oklahoma, Arizona State). I promise if things heat up I'll try to track down some kind of scouting or more info on him, but for now he's really tall and some people like him.
Honestly if Pitino got an all Minnesota class (with Manyang, Illikainen and Johnson) that would be a pretty good class and make those weirdos who want the team to be like, only Minnesota kids happy too. Two top 100 kids and the top Juco would be a nice step up for the program and a natural build, made all the easier by it being local kids. That being said, Pitino is so aggressive and he has so many offers out to so many top kids I'm hoping that after so many near misses last year he finally lands somebody that is like wow - #22 Allonzo Trier, #39 Eric Davis, #42 Jalen Adams, #21 Brandon Ingram, #6 Chieck Diallo, #27 Moustapha Diagne, and #16 Doral Moore are all in play to various degrees. Hopefully he gets one (or more).
Wednesday, May 7, 2014
Who's this Danny Santana guy?
One thing you can be sure of when you're a fan of a crappy baseball team is there will be people running in and out of the lineup you've never heard of all the time, and with the Twins' crappy options at shortstop given Pedro Florimon's inability to hit at all they've gone with the revolving door approach at the position. I should have hit on Eduardo Nunez after they acquired him, and may still do that, but with Danny Santana getting all the playing time lately it's time to figure out just who the hell this guy is.
John Sickels from minorleagueball.com ranked him the Twins' #15 prospect, Baseball America ranked him ninth, and Aaron Gleeman put him at #14. In short, he's a possible "shortstop of the future" and somehow we should be paying very close attention to and pulling for as hard as you can pull. If you click on that Baseball America link you can see his ranking within the organization the last four years has gone 25-20-11-9, so he's been improving and moving in the right direction. Sickels had estimated he'd be up late 2014, so he's a little bit ahead of schedule. But I'm getting ahead of myself. We should look at a little background.
Santana was signed out of the Dominican by the Twins as a 17-year old and who has had a rather rapid rise to AAA, playing at a below average age for the league at each stop. His career slash line is .274/.318/.393, which means he walks little and doesn't have much power - then again as a shortstop you don't necessarily need those things to be effective. He has some speed with 117 career minor league steals with a decent success rate of 69%, and although he strikes out a lot (career 18.5%) he had improved in 2012 and 2013 with a rate of 14.1% and 16.0% before ballooning up to 26% this year in AAA (in fairness, his first year at that level).
Since he's a shortstop, if he can put up his exact career numbers at the major league level, get a little better on the bases, and play above average defense he could conceivably grab the SS position on the team for the foreseeable future. That .274 average would have been 6th among all big league shortstops last year, while a .318 OBP would have been 7th and the .393 SLG 8th and his .711 OPS would have been 6th. Remember, the bar of shortstop offense is quite low outside of the freaks, so Santana's numbers, despite his lack of walks and power (just 25 career home runs, not a ton of extra base hits though he could be a 20 double/10 triple guy if everything breaks right), would make him a top 10 offensive shortstop. The steals are intriguing too, given that just 6 shortstops stole 20+ bases last season (Santana had 30 in 2013 at AA ball). It may be asking a lot, but looking at the numbers it's not out of the realm of possibility.
More important, however, is if he can play defense at a high level. His career fielding percentage at shortstop in the minors is .932, which is really, really bad. He was at .918 this season when he was called up, and even his best seasons were around .940-.950 which is still really, really bad. Like, dead last in the league bad. His range factor per game is 4.01, and as unreliable as that metric is (it's just assists+putouts / games) it's all we have for the minors. I couldn't find any leaderboards for it, but just checking a guy with range (Florimon, 4.63) and a guy without (Jhonny Peralta, 4.33) that number doesn't inspire confidence either.
That said, he's definitely a guy to keep a close watch on. The fielding could still develop and he's at least intriguing enough with his bat that it's worth giving him time. I wouldn't be against just handing him the starting job and pretty much letting him run with it for the year. If he can field and hit at the big league level the Twins may finally have a real shortstop.
John Sickels from minorleagueball.com ranked him the Twins' #15 prospect, Baseball America ranked him ninth, and Aaron Gleeman put him at #14. In short, he's a possible "shortstop of the future" and somehow we should be paying very close attention to and pulling for as hard as you can pull. If you click on that Baseball America link you can see his ranking within the organization the last four years has gone 25-20-11-9, so he's been improving and moving in the right direction. Sickels had estimated he'd be up late 2014, so he's a little bit ahead of schedule. But I'm getting ahead of myself. We should look at a little background.
Santana was signed out of the Dominican by the Twins as a 17-year old and who has had a rather rapid rise to AAA, playing at a below average age for the league at each stop. His career slash line is .274/.318/.393, which means he walks little and doesn't have much power - then again as a shortstop you don't necessarily need those things to be effective. He has some speed with 117 career minor league steals with a decent success rate of 69%, and although he strikes out a lot (career 18.5%) he had improved in 2012 and 2013 with a rate of 14.1% and 16.0% before ballooning up to 26% this year in AAA (in fairness, his first year at that level).
Since he's a shortstop, if he can put up his exact career numbers at the major league level, get a little better on the bases, and play above average defense he could conceivably grab the SS position on the team for the foreseeable future. That .274 average would have been 6th among all big league shortstops last year, while a .318 OBP would have been 7th and the .393 SLG 8th and his .711 OPS would have been 6th. Remember, the bar of shortstop offense is quite low outside of the freaks, so Santana's numbers, despite his lack of walks and power (just 25 career home runs, not a ton of extra base hits though he could be a 20 double/10 triple guy if everything breaks right), would make him a top 10 offensive shortstop. The steals are intriguing too, given that just 6 shortstops stole 20+ bases last season (Santana had 30 in 2013 at AA ball). It may be asking a lot, but looking at the numbers it's not out of the realm of possibility.
More important, however, is if he can play defense at a high level. His career fielding percentage at shortstop in the minors is .932, which is really, really bad. He was at .918 this season when he was called up, and even his best seasons were around .940-.950 which is still really, really bad. Like, dead last in the league bad. His range factor per game is 4.01, and as unreliable as that metric is (it's just assists+putouts / games) it's all we have for the minors. I couldn't find any leaderboards for it, but just checking a guy with range (Florimon, 4.63) and a guy without (Jhonny Peralta, 4.33) that number doesn't inspire confidence either.
That said, he's definitely a guy to keep a close watch on. The fielding could still develop and he's at least intriguing enough with his bat that it's worth giving him time. I wouldn't be against just handing him the starting job and pretty much letting him run with it for the year. If he can field and hit at the big league level the Twins may finally have a real shortstop.
Thursday, May 1, 2014
Thursday Thoughts
- So the "big" news of the day in Gopher land is that the Big 10/ACC Challenge match-ups were announced and the Gophers got screwed. No, it's not Florida State for the 12th time, but they ended up getting slated to go on the road to Wake Forest. Despite finishing 7th in the league, the Gophers get last season's 11th place Demon Deacons who are probably going to be even worse. At the same time, the 6th place Hawkeyes get North Carolina, and Illinois and Indiana, who both finished below the Gophers, get much more favorable match-ups in Miami and Pitt, and last place Purdue got a fun match-up in NC State. This is horseshit.
There are 14 Big Ten teams. There are 15 ACC teams. Should be pretty straight forward, although with the realignment I suppose they had some leeway to play with things, but this is bullshit. No chance in hell Purdue, 12th in the Big Ten, should get NC State, who finished tied for 7th. If things were fair, horrible shit box Virginia Tech sits out (not Notre Dame) and based on records you get:
Virginia vs. Michigan
Louisville vs. Wisconsin
Syracuse vs. Michigan State
Duke vs. Nebraska
UNC vs. Ohio State
Pitt vs. Iowa
Clemson vs. Maryland
NC State vs. Minnesota
FSU vs. Illinois
Miami vs. Indiana
Wake vs. Penn State
Georgia Tech vs. Northwestern
Notre Dame vs. Purdue
BC vs. Rutgers
Way better and much more fair. Fucking NCAA Fascist bastards. Wake sucks, and they might even be worse next year. One of their top bench guys is transferring, and they're losing two starters. It's probably not all bad because their two leading scorers are back and they've got some decent young players, but I'm crabby so I'm bitching because the Gophers clearly got screwed because they're looked at as a bottom tier Big Ten program. Maybe they are but shit, you don't have to out of your way to fucking remind me. I need a drink.
- Going with Knob Creek.
- A little more news that might be of interest to Gopher fans is that Naadir Tharpe is transferring from Kansas. You may remember Tharpe from blogs such as this one because at one point he was ranked #90 overall and the #20 point guard in the country and all things pointed to him being a Gopher. If you don't feel like reading back, Tharpe had a two school list of Minnesota and Rutgers and then Rutgers signed Myles Mack so he canceled his official to Rutgers and the Gophers were in the driver's seat. Then Josiah Turner signed with Arizona (which did not work out well - DUI, kicked off team, transfer, reneg on transfer enter NBA draft, not drafted) which meant Kansas didn't have a point guard in their incoming class so they called Tharpe and about five minutes later, without even a visit, he was a Jayhawk. Once again, I don't need to be reminded constantly how the Gopher program ranks nationally. Thanks again, Tum Tum Nairn (who did almost the same thing).
Now, after 3 so so years in which he's made pretty good progress each year (1ppg/1apg to 6ppg/3apg to 9ppg/5apg) he's out. Kansas is fairly loaded at guard, and Tharpe actually lost his starting spot for a few games, but Tharpe is transferring to be closer to his daughter in Massachusetts (I think) who has been having some health issues. I would assume BC, UMass, and any of those Rhode Island schools are in play, and who knows, maybe UCONN. This is a pretty clear case of somebody who deserves a hardship waiver to be immediately eligible. So he's probably 50/50. The NCAA is neat.
- It's been awfully hard to keep up with the Twins this year considering they never seem to play, when they do it's almost always day games, my vpn trick to make mlb.com think I'm in California so I can watch their games on my computer has stopped working, and the pitching staff is once again horrible. Who could have possibly predicted that trying to upgrade the starters by signing two mediocre or worse starters and resigning a terrible one wouldn't have worked?
The team's starters post an ERA of 6.08, a WHIP of 1.64, a FIP of 4.74, and a xFIP of 4.95, numbers that are second worst, worst, second worst, and worst in the majors and this was coming into the day not even accounting for Pelfrey getting destroyed. Every single one of those numbers is worse than last year. Look at this rotation (ERA/FIP/xFIP/WHIP):
They're clawing around .500 thanks to an offense that has been putting up a shocking amount of runs ranking fifth in the majors, but man does that ever feel like fool's gold. Second in the majors in walks (after finishing 7th last season) should hold up and the team likely will keep putting runners on base, but there feels like to much fluky, timely hitting bringing in all those runs especially since they were a bottom six run scoring team last year. Sam Fuld (who I thought was brought in to be a fifth/sixth outfielder, not an every day starter), Trevor Plouffe, and Chris Colabello are all probably playing way over their heads, and I find it unlikely that Brian Dozier really has the kind of power he's showing so far. Now Joe Mauer and Aaron Hicks should probably be better than they're showing (can you believe Chris Herrmann pinch hit for Hicks today? Talk about a career low point) so it could kind of even out a bit, but if this team's going to do anything it's with pitching. And this pitching sucks. At least
- The Kentucky Derby is this weekend, and I'm always big fan and have given you jerks picks each of the last four years. Four years ago I hit Super Saver and two years ago my wife picked the winner with I'll Have Another, so you know what that means - I'm practically guaranteed to pick the winning horse.
My favorite bet is Intense Holiday at 16/1. He fits the profile of your typical derby winner - solid year at age 2 with improvement at age 3. He's also one of the best closers in the field. If he can stay middle of the pack for most of the race he should be able to make a late charge. Like this horse a lot. Also put down on Danza at 9/1 and Medal Count at 25/1. Danza is coming in hot and is a fast horse, but also has a lot of stamina in his pedigree, could very well be a wire to wire winner. Medal Count is similar to Danza in that he has a lot of stamina, but similar to Intense Holiday in that his best bet is to win with a late charge because he's not as fast as Danza. Long shot to win but I'll take a closer with stamina at 25/1. My kids chose Candy Boy (25/1) because hey, candy, and the wife went with Vicar's in Trouble because "he sounds British." So there you go. I'll probably do some kind of trifecta or exacta or something with my three horses and one of the front runners. Looking to win big this year.
BOATLOADS!
(ended up doing an trifecta box with Danza, Intense Holiday, California Chrome, Commanding Curve, and Wildcat Red)
There are 14 Big Ten teams. There are 15 ACC teams. Should be pretty straight forward, although with the realignment I suppose they had some leeway to play with things, but this is bullshit. No chance in hell Purdue, 12th in the Big Ten, should get NC State, who finished tied for 7th. If things were fair, horrible shit box Virginia Tech sits out (not Notre Dame) and based on records you get:
Virginia vs. Michigan
Louisville vs. Wisconsin
Syracuse vs. Michigan State
Duke vs. Nebraska
UNC vs. Ohio State
Pitt vs. Iowa
Clemson vs. Maryland
NC State vs. Minnesota
FSU vs. Illinois
Miami vs. Indiana
Wake vs. Penn State
Georgia Tech vs. Northwestern
Notre Dame vs. Purdue
BC vs. Rutgers
Way better and much more fair. Fucking NCAA Fascist bastards. Wake sucks, and they might even be worse next year. One of their top bench guys is transferring, and they're losing two starters. It's probably not all bad because their two leading scorers are back and they've got some decent young players, but I'm crabby so I'm bitching because the Gophers clearly got screwed because they're looked at as a bottom tier Big Ten program. Maybe they are but shit, you don't have to out of your way to fucking remind me. I need a drink.
- Going with Knob Creek.
- A little more news that might be of interest to Gopher fans is that Naadir Tharpe is transferring from Kansas. You may remember Tharpe from blogs such as this one because at one point he was ranked #90 overall and the #20 point guard in the country and all things pointed to him being a Gopher. If you don't feel like reading back, Tharpe had a two school list of Minnesota and Rutgers and then Rutgers signed Myles Mack so he canceled his official to Rutgers and the Gophers were in the driver's seat. Then Josiah Turner signed with Arizona (which did not work out well - DUI, kicked off team, transfer, reneg on transfer enter NBA draft, not drafted) which meant Kansas didn't have a point guard in their incoming class so they called Tharpe and about five minutes later, without even a visit, he was a Jayhawk. Once again, I don't need to be reminded constantly how the Gopher program ranks nationally. Thanks again, Tum Tum Nairn (who did almost the same thing).
Now, after 3 so so years in which he's made pretty good progress each year (1ppg/1apg to 6ppg/3apg to 9ppg/5apg) he's out. Kansas is fairly loaded at guard, and Tharpe actually lost his starting spot for a few games, but Tharpe is transferring to be closer to his daughter in Massachusetts (I think) who has been having some health issues. I would assume BC, UMass, and any of those Rhode Island schools are in play, and who knows, maybe UCONN. This is a pretty clear case of somebody who deserves a hardship waiver to be immediately eligible. So he's probably 50/50. The NCAA is neat.
- It's been awfully hard to keep up with the Twins this year considering they never seem to play, when they do it's almost always day games, my vpn trick to make mlb.com think I'm in California so I can watch their games on my computer has stopped working, and the pitching staff is once again horrible. Who could have possibly predicted that trying to upgrade the starters by signing two mediocre or worse starters and resigning a terrible one wouldn't have worked?
The team's starters post an ERA of 6.08, a WHIP of 1.64, a FIP of 4.74, and a xFIP of 4.95, numbers that are second worst, worst, second worst, and worst in the majors and this was coming into the day not even accounting for Pelfrey getting destroyed. Every single one of those numbers is worse than last year. Look at this rotation (ERA/FIP/xFIP/WHIP):
- Ricky Nolasco: 6.67/5.36/4.32/1.75
- Phil Hughes: 5.14/3.42/3.72/1.39
- Kevin Correia: 7.33/4.21/5.24/1.67
- Mike Pelfrey: 7.32/8.22/6.87/1.88
- Kyle Gibson: 4.34/3.55/4.79/1.55
As Ian Malcolm once said, "that is one big pile of shit." Gibson's the only one who has looked halfway decent but his last two outings have been pretty bad and I fear his hot start was mostly fluky. Hughes has been far and away the second best starter on this team so far. Phil Hughes! The good news is most of these guys aren't quite as bad as they've looked since with one exception their FIPs and xFIPS are lower than their ERA, which suggests that either luck or bad defense is making things worse and considering the team's horrendous corner outfielders it could be that, but they aren't suddenly going to get better. The bad news is that Mike Pelfrey might actually be worse than he's looked. Worse!
They're clawing around .500 thanks to an offense that has been putting up a shocking amount of runs ranking fifth in the majors, but man does that ever feel like fool's gold. Second in the majors in walks (after finishing 7th last season) should hold up and the team likely will keep putting runners on base, but there feels like to much fluky, timely hitting bringing in all those runs especially since they were a bottom six run scoring team last year. Sam Fuld (who I thought was brought in to be a fifth/sixth outfielder, not an every day starter), Trevor Plouffe, and Chris Colabello are all probably playing way over their heads, and I find it unlikely that Brian Dozier really has the kind of power he's showing so far. Now Joe Mauer and Aaron Hicks should probably be better than they're showing (can you believe Chris Herrmann pinch hit for Hicks today? Talk about a career low point) so it could kind of even out a bit, but if this team's going to do anything it's with pitching. And this pitching sucks. At least
- The Kentucky Derby is this weekend, and I'm always big fan and have given you jerks picks each of the last four years. Four years ago I hit Super Saver and two years ago my wife picked the winner with I'll Have Another, so you know what that means - I'm practically guaranteed to pick the winning horse.
My favorite bet is Intense Holiday at 16/1. He fits the profile of your typical derby winner - solid year at age 2 with improvement at age 3. He's also one of the best closers in the field. If he can stay middle of the pack for most of the race he should be able to make a late charge. Like this horse a lot. Also put down on Danza at 9/1 and Medal Count at 25/1. Danza is coming in hot and is a fast horse, but also has a lot of stamina in his pedigree, could very well be a wire to wire winner. Medal Count is similar to Danza in that he has a lot of stamina, but similar to Intense Holiday in that his best bet is to win with a late charge because he's not as fast as Danza. Long shot to win but I'll take a closer with stamina at 25/1. My kids chose Candy Boy (25/1) because hey, candy, and the wife went with Vicar's in Trouble because "he sounds British." So there you go. I'll probably do some kind of trifecta or exacta or something with my three horses and one of the front runners. Looking to win big this year.
BOATLOADS!
(ended up doing an trifecta box with Danza, Intense Holiday, California Chrome, Commanding Curve, and Wildcat Red)
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