Thursday, May 23, 2013

A Look Back at My NBA Preview - How Horrible Was I?

Wolves get lucky #9 in this year's draft.

In honor of the Timberwolves not getting screwed (although not improving) in the NBA lottery, I thought I'd do an end of season recap.  Prior to the NBA season I picked the over under for each team with a brief team preview.  I didn't place any real money on these plays mostly because I hate waiting seven months for them to cash in, but unlike Mel Kiper who never looks back at his projections, we here at DWG take ownership of our awful predictions.

As I write this, I do not know the results of how I did, so this could end in apology or over the top gloating; but will likely end in a middling result where the only one that wins is the house.

In the Atlantic Division I had:

Nets: Under 46 -- They went 49-33.  LOSS
Knicks: Under 45.5 -- They went 54-28 LOSS
Celtics: Over 50.5 --  They went 41-40 LOSS (uh-oh)
Sixers: Under 45.5 -- They went 34-48 WIN
Raptors: Under 34.5 -- They went 34-48 WIN

What happened?

I had a 2-3 record in the Atlantic Division.  A lot of this could be attributed to the massive failure of the Celtics.  Rondo only played 38 games before tearing an ACL.  Rookie Jared Sullinger was also lost for the season and Jason Terry decided he was so very old and so very tired.  The Knicks had a great year on the back of Carmelo Anthony.  Ray Felton got back to being a good fat-back (Barry Foster) as opposed to a bad one (LenDale White) and the Knicks had a lot of depth to overcome injuries.

In the Central Division I had:

Cavaliers: Under 30.5 -- They went 24-58 WIN
Bulls: Over 47.5 -- They went 45-37 LOSS
Bucks: Over 36.5 -- They went 38-44 WIN
Pacers: Under 51.5 -- They went 49-32 WIN
Pistons: Under 31.5 -- They went 29-53 WIN

What happened?

Woohoo!  4-1 here.  The lines were pretty well set for this group wiht all teams within 2.5 wins except the Cavs.  The Bulls got strong for their playoff push, but couldn't quite pull out the 48 wins I required.  My boyfriend Paul George and the Pacers had/are having a great year, but that 51.5 number was just too big like my cholesterol.

In the Southeast Division I had:

Hawks: Under 43.5 -- They went 44-38 LOSS
Heat: Over 60.5 -- They went 66-16 WIN
Bobcats: Over 18.5 -- They went 21-61 WIN
Magic: Under 23.5 -- They went 20-62 WIN
Wizards: Under 27.5 -- They went 29-53 LOSS

What happened?

3-2 here.  What happened here is the Hawks screwed me.  Both losses were pretty close.  The Heat had an amazing regular season and are on their way to another championship (not even worth blogging about).  They blew away the 60.5 o/u.  Charlotte beat their 18.5 over, but the bigger win here is they're getting rid of the silly Bobcats moniker and going back to the Hornets.

In the Northwest Division I had:

Jazz: Over 43.5 -- They went 43-39 LOSS
Thunder: Under 58.5 -- They went 60-22 LOSS
Nuggets: Under 51.5 -- They went 57-25 LOSS
Blazers: Over 33.5 (said I "really like this") -- They went 33-49 LOSS
Timberwolves:  No Pick (WTF?) -- They went 31-51 NA

What happened?

0-4...Well, all of the good feelings have gone as I'm proven to be a complete imbecile.  I was most off on the Nuggets as I really didn't appreciate the impact of Andre Iguodala on this team.  I lost the Thunder/Jazz/Blazers by a combined 2.5 wins, so that sucks.  The only good news is I probably would have predicted over for the Timberwolves and I'm sure the number was 40-ish for them.

In the Western Division I had:

Kings: Under 30.5 -- They went 28-54 WIN
Suns: Under 31.5 -- They went 25-57 WIN
Warriors: Over 36.5 -- They went 47-35 WIN
Clippers: Over 49.5 -- They went 56-26 WIN
Lakers: Under 56.5 -- They went 45-37 WIN

What happened?

5-0! And he's back off the ropes!  This division appears to be where Vegas was the most off.  Some of it certainly due to the Lakers making a dirty diaper of their season.  Steph Curry (Wolves didn't need him) and the Warriors really took a nice step forward despite injuries to Bogut and Lee and Rush; they could be one to watch next year.

In the Western Division I had:

Mavericks: Over 41.5 -- They went 41-41 LOSS
Spurs: Under 56.5 -- They went 58-24 LOSS
Grizzlies: Under 48.5 -- They went 56-26 LOSS
Hornets Pelicans: Under 27.5 -- They went 27-55 WIN
Rockets: Over 33.5 -- They went 45-37 WIN

What happened?

2-3, not the greatest finish.  The Grizzlies had a great year and really exceeded expectations.  Houston did well with THE BEARD in tow.  Everyone else pretty held to form.

Overall record: 16-13

So, to summarize, I know slightly more about basketball than a coin-flip.  Also, the division I watch the most was my worst; so I must be extra delusional when it comes to teams close to the Wolves.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Pretty sure this is statistically indistinguishable from a coin flip.