I was considering doing a "Year in Review" post, like similar to the usual week in review but covering the whole year. But then I realized that would require me writing about things that happened like, months ago and years of heavy drinking and glue sniffing have made my memory really similar to that Memento guy and so I said eff it.
And really, other than highlighting an awesome guy and a sucky guy from the Gopher game on Sunday I don't really have much to say about the Gophers' two games this week (partially because I didn't watch most of the Illinois game.) They were expected to lose both games and did, while not embarrassing themselves in the process. What I'm really not sure what to think about are how the team has had chances to win both games and blew them both. If Julian Welch makes two free-throws, or even one, rather than missing the front end of a one-and-one in regulation against Illinois they probably win that game (certainly with two, maybe with one). If Welch makes an open lay-up in the first OT, they might win that game. If Rodney Williams knocks down a wide open three-pointer against Michigan we head to overtime. And if the team gets a good shot instead of a shot clock violation on their second-to-last possession, maybe the result is different (this one I blame on Tubby - nice playcall).
On the one hand, they were in both games and absolutely could have won either or both. On the other hand, they won neither and failed to capitalize on any of the opportunities that came their way. Since they weren't expected to win either game I'm going to choose to make no changes to my opinion of this team as a deeply flawed squad that has enough ability to be in the hunt for an NCAA bid as long as they make no mistakes (like losing to Iowa - suck it, Badgers) and win a game or two that they probably shouldn't. They had chances to steal two of those wins this week and whiffed. Hopefully they find a way to take advantage next time.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Ricky Rubio. Moral victories are for grandmas, sissies, and liberals so I'm really glad they beat the Mavs because I'd feel kind of weird talking up Rubio if the Wolves were sitting at 0-3, but I'd probably do it anyway because oh my god Ricky Rubio is so awesome he makes me crap my pants. Dude sees the court like a mofo. No, seriously, he's incredible. The way his head is always up and some of the angles and passes he sees are un-freaking-real. A lot of point guards can make a great pass hear and there, but I've seriously never seen anyone like this since Magic Johnson. Yeah, you heard me. Name another PG that sees the court the way Magic and Rubio did/do? Stockton? Every single assist he had was on a pick-and-roll and was the exact same pass (you can look it up). Paul? Please. Nash? Poor man's Rubio. He's just so good. We'll see about his defense and shooting in the future, but his passing is like whoa. Plus Ricky's even contagious because I saw Beasley pass up an open jumper to try to find a teammate for a lay-up against the Mavs. No, seriously it happened. Of course he turned it over by throwing it into traffic, but, like self-exploration, it's the thought that counts. [and then tonight, after I wrote this, they go and dominate the Spurs in a game they led wire-to-wire. Can you say playoffs? I'm seeing playoffs.]
2. Alamo Bowl. If you like stuff like defense and tackling you probably hated the Alamo Bowl and are also probably like 60 years old and drink sherry because that was freaking awesome. Baylor 67, Washington 56 in mother effing regulation are you kidding me? A bowl record for yardage, touchdowns, points, and "are you freaking kidding me" moments - how could you not love it? Baylor had three guys rush for over 100 yards, while Washington QB Keith Price waited until this bowl game to have the best game of his career, throwing for 438 yards and 4 TDs and rushing for three more scores. Fun fact: This was just Price's second career game with 300+ yards, second game with 4 TDs and no picks, and those 3 rushing TDs were the first 3 of his career - not his first 3 TD game, the first 3 rushing TDs ever. Just a crazy entertaining game in every way, and anything that gets cranky curmudgeons all up in arms whining about the days of leather helmets and 6-3 ball games ok in my book. Suck it, grandpa. Go listen to some Mellancamp.
3. Trey Burke. Son of a whore is this kid good. I don't even think I can blame the Gophers for this one because so much of what he did was just knocking down shots after creating space for himself. Obviously he's not going to shoot 8-11 from the floor very often, but his 46% from the field so far this year is pretty solid for somebody who takes as many mid-range jumpers as he does, particularly for a freshman, and his 76% free throw accuracy this year says he's probably going to be a very solid shooter who is just going to get better. Which depresses me immensely. You know where Burke was on Rivals Top 100 list? #142. You know where Andre Hollins and Joe Coleman were? #110 and #121. I like some of what I've seen from those two, but they are NO WHERE near Burke. God damn Beilein.
4. Spencer Hawes and Kyle Lowry. This is more representative of any player who is having a crazy good start to the NBA season but Hawes and Lowry stand out to me because Hawes is averaging 12.5 rebs per game so far and Lowry is leading the league with 11.5 assists per game. You know in a shortened season with basically no training camp you're going to see some weird things, and I suppose you could have seen Lowry coming, especially with Aaron Brooks out of the picture, but Hawes? Guy had the look of a career back-up and another big white stiff since he came out of Washington, and is suddenly shooting 68% from the floor after being a 47% career shooter with career highs in points and that massive jump in rebounds (career just 5.6 per game). Did he suddenly get it? Doubtful. It's not like he had anybody blocking his development, so I'm going with fluky fluke.
5. Indiana Hoosiers. How can I possibly leave them off after the beat Ohio State, which now means they've beat the #1 and #2 teams in the country this season (or that's what they were ranked when the Hoosiers beat them). What's most amazing to me is that it's basically the exact same team from the last couple of years when they were terrible. The only real change was the addition of Zeller, and although I'm really impressed with him (as documented somewhere within this stupid blog), he shouldn't be able to just suddenly make a terrible team good. Did Jordan Hulls and Verdell Jones suddenly become good? No, of course not. So I don't know. Maybe Zeller is that good. Maybe Tom Crean deserves a hell of a lot of credit. Maybe it's the whole Victor Oladipo thing. I don't know because I haven't watched Indiana yet this year, but I'm thinking I should probably want to do that.
WHO SUCKED
1. Ralph Sampson. Have you ever seen a big man more passive when he gets the ball on the block? It's like that center in that Simpsons episode about soccer - wing passes to center, center holds it, holds it, holds it. Every time just looking to pass, waiting for the double team. Almost hoping for that second defender like a chubby 17-year old girl staring at the phone just hoping that really cute boy will call (ok fine, chubby dude and cute girl and it was me, you happy now?). I looked at the box score for that Illinois game that I didn't really watch and saw Ralph had 19 shot attempts. 19! How is that even possible? What happened? That's a career high in shot attempts, the first time he's hit double figure attempts this year (you cannot make a big enough question mark/exclamation point combination for that one), and just the second time in his career he's topped 14 FGAs in a game. The last time? Last year against Illinois when he had 17 attempts. I'd say he must like the matchup against Illinois but their front line is completely different this year so you fucking figure it out. I give up on this mess. He now joins Voshon Lenard's senior year, Michael Bauer''s senior year, Rick Rickert, Adam Boone, and Antoine Broxsie on the most disappointing Gophers ever list.
2. Brock Lesnar. As you know if you pay a shockingly creepy amount of attention to the things I write you know that I used to be like way into boxing and am trying to get back into boxing and/or UFC or MMA or whatever you call it. Well I watched it again on Friday night and I saw some fairly entertaining undercards (Nate Ortiz omg hi 2 u) and then the main event happened and oh my Tebow. I wish we were having an actual conversation right now because I'd be all like "did you see that" and you'd either be like "yeah dude wtf" and we'd high five or you'd be like "no dude, what happened" and we'd high five. Basically Lesnar came out, clearly didn't want to be there, looked terrified like a little bunny, got kicked in the ribs, fell down, and instead of trying to get up he just covered his face with his hands either to cry or to try to block the 83 haymakers the other dude landed on his noggin before the ref mercifully ended the fight (maybe both). Then he quit the sport. It was, well, not very impressive to say the least.
3. Wisconsin Badgers. Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha. OMG. hahahahahahahahahahahaha. Iowa? You lost to Iowa at home? Oh my god so awesome. I knew the Badgers sucked this year. 3-28 from three. Awesome. And Iowa isn't even good at defending against the three-pointer. Nice offense, Bo Ryan. You know it's ok to drift inside the arc from time to time, right? So awesome.
4. Pitt Panthers. For whatever reason, behind Wisconsin, Iowa, and Duke on my most hated basketball schools list sits Pitt, so this pretty epic collapse they have going on is yet another loss, this time to Cincy, and this time at home. That loss follows an embarrassing home loss to Wagner and a road loss at dreadful Notre Dame. You may recall that Pitt started the year ranked 10th and won eleven of their first twelve games, so this is quite the slide. Turns out when you forget how to shoot, don't take care of the basketball, and play terrible defense you end up losing a bunch of games. Hell, at least the Gophers play defense (sort of).
5. Florida Gators. Since I consider Florida to be a legit sleeper to win the NCAA Tournament their loss earlier this week against Rutgers, one of the worst teams in the Big East, was a bit troubling. Both teams are pretty heavily backcourt dependent, so you'd think this would play right into the Gators' hands, but it wasn't meant to be. Although Florida's guards (Brad Beal, Kenny Boynton, Mike Rosario, and Erving Walker) scored a total of 55 points it came on just 18-53 shooting, they turned it over 15 times to just 10 assists, and they allowed Rutgers guards (also four dudes) to score 74 points on 31-57 shooting and they dished 15 assists to just 7 turnovers. I know they say Rutgers gym is a tough place for visiting teams to play (and I only remember that from way back when Quincy Douby was there and the team was decent), but this shakes my confidence in my sleeper team a little. On the other hand it's tough to believe all four of those guards will play poorly on the same night again. It would be like lightning striking twice, although if you ask that dude from The Great Outdoors that happens all the time.
I was gonna put something else here but it's really late and I'm still watching this damn Fiesta Bowl so I don't feel like it anymore.
Monday, January 2, 2012
Thursday, December 29, 2011
Preview: Gophers vs. Wolverines
So we move on from the disappointments of the Illinois game and up next is another road game against a slightly worse opponent in the Michigan Wolverines. Yes, slightly worse. Because although Michigan is ranked higher than Illinois in the polls (16 vs. 27), kenpom has Illinois a little bit better (46 vs. 52) and Illinois is significantly better in the RPI (20 vs. 59). If you're like me and wondering why you haven't heard anything about Michigan even though they were supposed to be like so awesome its the same reason their RPI is so crappy - they haven't played anyone since December 3rd (wins over Oakland, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Alabama A&M, and Bradley since then - all terrible teams). So, again, this makes them kind of hard to evaluate.
By now you know the basic drill with a John Beilein team - shoot a ton of threes coming from every single player/position on the court, a lot of ball movement, and mediocre man-to-man defense. This is year is no exception with one major wrinkle - the Wolverines, although still one of highest volume shooting three-point teams, have become extremely efficient on TWO pointers. This year they are hitting at 59.2% from two, tops in the nation. Notable in this is that all eight players who matter on this team hit at least 51% from two. So they got that going for them.
Despite their efficiency inside the arc, Michigan still lives and dies outside of it and as such their guards are the key and they have two really, really good (but not quite great) ones in Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway.
Burke, although just a freshman, is probably the best player on the team. He's their second leading scorer at 13 per game, leading assist guy with 5 per (ranks 3rd in b10), and chips in 3 boards and a steal per game. His turnovers are a little high at nearly 3 per game, but that's not out of line for a freshman point guard and his nearly 2-to-1 assist ratio is a nice number. He's an excellent penetrator (just like me, ask your mom), and can finish at the rim or kick-out to a teammate and is a solid shooter anywhere on the floor. I wouldn't have thought it possible but he's stepped in for the departed Darius Morris and Michigan hasn't missed a beat.
Although Burke might be their best player, Hardaway is almost certainly their most important simply because he dominates the ball as much as he does. So far this year he's done well, ranking in the top 500 in basically every advanced offensive metric other than the rebounding ones and he's mainly upped his effectiveness by shooting better from two (58% this year compared to 48% last year) and contributing more assists (2.9 vs. 1.7). He's still a terrible chucker overall (33% from three this year, 37% last year, and leads the team in three-point attempts) but he's masked that with his ability to get to the rim and the line this year. The Gophers would be wise to coax him into jacking up a ton of threes rather than having him gain confidence getting to the rim. You're taking a chance that he'll put up something like the 5-9 from 3 performance he put up against Oakland, but you're also better off betting that won't happen and keeping him away from the paint. He's a chucker, let him chuck and hope the percentages play themselves out the way they should.
Michigan has three other guys who can hurt you - Evan Smotrycz, Jordan Morgan, and Zack "8th year" Novak. Smotrycz is a 6-9 "power" forward who is third on the team in scoring (11.7) and leads in rebounds (6.7) despite being a perimeter playing nancy boy forward who spends more time outside the 3-point line than Ralph Sampson. He's been on fire lately, averaging over 18 a game over his last four, but he's done it by being unconscious from deep (15-19 in those four games, not a misprint). Obviously there's no way he can keep that up, but considering he gets most of his points from three the Gophers would do well to be sure his crazy shooting streak stops.
The other two, Morgan and Novak, are both technically forwards but couldn't be more different. Morgan is the model of efficiency, hitting 71% of his shots by never shooting anything other than a dunk or lay-up, and is big (6-8) and strong (240 lbs.). He also has a tendency to disappear in games and losing playing time in some games due to lack of effort. That's not an issue with Novak, who is under-sized, under-athletic, and under-talented but makes up for it with Eckstein-ien hustle and grit and an occasionally deft outside shot (which is the majority of his offensive game). He also manages to grab about five boards per game despite being just 6-4, which goes back to that whole constant effort thing. Since Novak hit six threes his freshman year against the Gophers they've done a pretty good job of holding him down, but I can't get that six three game out of my head. So yeah, I'm scared of a 6-4, floppy haired, mediocre athlete. But in my defense, he is left-handed.
So I guess I really don't know here. The Gophers are clearly better than I thought, especially against decent squads, based on my predicted massacres at the hands of Va Tech and Illinois which clearly didn't materialize. I don't know, with Ralph playing well (and in the paint) and with Julian Welch's influence clearly affecting this team they look really, really good. They can absolutely win this game, and I am very close to predicting them to do so. The only thing holding me back is that Michigan shoots so many threes and the Gophers are so completely terrible at defending them. I think that will bite them in the ass, and another winnable road game goes by the wayside.
Michigan 63, Minnesota 60.
By now you know the basic drill with a John Beilein team - shoot a ton of threes coming from every single player/position on the court, a lot of ball movement, and mediocre man-to-man defense. This is year is no exception with one major wrinkle - the Wolverines, although still one of highest volume shooting three-point teams, have become extremely efficient on TWO pointers. This year they are hitting at 59.2% from two, tops in the nation. Notable in this is that all eight players who matter on this team hit at least 51% from two. So they got that going for them.
Despite their efficiency inside the arc, Michigan still lives and dies outside of it and as such their guards are the key and they have two really, really good (but not quite great) ones in Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway.
Burke, although just a freshman, is probably the best player on the team. He's their second leading scorer at 13 per game, leading assist guy with 5 per (ranks 3rd in b10), and chips in 3 boards and a steal per game. His turnovers are a little high at nearly 3 per game, but that's not out of line for a freshman point guard and his nearly 2-to-1 assist ratio is a nice number. He's an excellent penetrator (just like me, ask your mom), and can finish at the rim or kick-out to a teammate and is a solid shooter anywhere on the floor. I wouldn't have thought it possible but he's stepped in for the departed Darius Morris and Michigan hasn't missed a beat.
Although Burke might be their best player, Hardaway is almost certainly their most important simply because he dominates the ball as much as he does. So far this year he's done well, ranking in the top 500 in basically every advanced offensive metric other than the rebounding ones and he's mainly upped his effectiveness by shooting better from two (58% this year compared to 48% last year) and contributing more assists (2.9 vs. 1.7). He's still a terrible chucker overall (33% from three this year, 37% last year, and leads the team in three-point attempts) but he's masked that with his ability to get to the rim and the line this year. The Gophers would be wise to coax him into jacking up a ton of threes rather than having him gain confidence getting to the rim. You're taking a chance that he'll put up something like the 5-9 from 3 performance he put up against Oakland, but you're also better off betting that won't happen and keeping him away from the paint. He's a chucker, let him chuck and hope the percentages play themselves out the way they should.
Michigan has three other guys who can hurt you - Evan Smotrycz, Jordan Morgan, and Zack "8th year" Novak. Smotrycz is a 6-9 "power" forward who is third on the team in scoring (11.7) and leads in rebounds (6.7) despite being a perimeter playing nancy boy forward who spends more time outside the 3-point line than Ralph Sampson. He's been on fire lately, averaging over 18 a game over his last four, but he's done it by being unconscious from deep (15-19 in those four games, not a misprint). Obviously there's no way he can keep that up, but considering he gets most of his points from three the Gophers would do well to be sure his crazy shooting streak stops.
The other two, Morgan and Novak, are both technically forwards but couldn't be more different. Morgan is the model of efficiency, hitting 71% of his shots by never shooting anything other than a dunk or lay-up, and is big (6-8) and strong (240 lbs.). He also has a tendency to disappear in games and losing playing time in some games due to lack of effort. That's not an issue with Novak, who is under-sized, under-athletic, and under-talented but makes up for it with Eckstein-ien hustle and grit and an occasionally deft outside shot (which is the majority of his offensive game). He also manages to grab about five boards per game despite being just 6-4, which goes back to that whole constant effort thing. Since Novak hit six threes his freshman year against the Gophers they've done a pretty good job of holding him down, but I can't get that six three game out of my head. So yeah, I'm scared of a 6-4, floppy haired, mediocre athlete. But in my defense, he is left-handed.
So I guess I really don't know here. The Gophers are clearly better than I thought, especially against decent squads, based on my predicted massacres at the hands of Va Tech and Illinois which clearly didn't materialize. I don't know, with Ralph playing well (and in the paint) and with Julian Welch's influence clearly affecting this team they look really, really good. They can absolutely win this game, and I am very close to predicting them to do so. The only thing holding me back is that Michigan shoots so many threes and the Gophers are so completely terrible at defending them. I think that will bite them in the ass, and another winnable road game goes by the wayside.
Michigan 63, Minnesota 60.
Wednesday, December 28, 2011
Wednesday Writings
So I decided not to watch the tivo'd version of the Gopher game. I received some advice that really it would just frustrate me beyond belief, and I realized that makes a lot of sense. I know as an alleged Gopher blogger watching the game would arm me with more information, but I'm thinking the trade-off between getting that info and wanting to kill myself like 30 different times made it not really worth it. I do promise to have a preview up of the big Gopher/Wolverine tilt on Sunday, and have it up tomorrow night. Really, I promise. In the meantime, here's just a couple things about stuff.
- I saw the most weirdest thing ever when watching the Diamond Head Classic over Christmas. UTEP is playing Clemson and they (the Miners) go with the Triangle-and-2 on Andre Young and Tanner Smith, their two leading scorers and only two play-makers with the ball in their hands. Not only that, but it was the most extreme T-and-2 I've ever seen. They were actually guarding them wherever they went and not looking at the ball, so at times Smith and Young would stand out by the half court line and their defenders would follow, which meant the game basically turned into 3-on-3 on one end of the court. It worked too, because those two scored just 14 points and tallied 4 assists (both about half their season average) and UTEP won by double-digits. One of the weirdest, coolest things I've ever seen.
- Let's check in real quick on my NCAA Wagers on teams to win the whole thing, and see where we stand:
- I was going to write a bunch more about the NBA (Rubio rocks, Lakers suck), the Saints (Brees's record should really have an asterisk), Jayma Mayes (sneaky hot), and Ginger Snaps (underrated movie), but I'm bored now and to be honest that comment you had about my gambling problem really hurt. I'm not mad mad, but I don't think we should talk for a little bit. Just to show you there's no hard feelings I'll leave you with a pic of Katharine Isabelle (star of Ginger Snaps), but we probably shouldn't talk for a while. Especially because you're going to say she's a plain jane, aren't you, you sick son of a bitch?
- I saw the most weirdest thing ever when watching the Diamond Head Classic over Christmas. UTEP is playing Clemson and they (the Miners) go with the Triangle-and-2 on Andre Young and Tanner Smith, their two leading scorers and only two play-makers with the ball in their hands. Not only that, but it was the most extreme T-and-2 I've ever seen. They were actually guarding them wherever they went and not looking at the ball, so at times Smith and Young would stand out by the half court line and their defenders would follow, which meant the game basically turned into 3-on-3 on one end of the court. It worked too, because those two scored just 14 points and tallied 4 assists (both about half their season average) and UTEP won by double-digits. One of the weirdest, coolest things I've ever seen.
- Let's check in real quick on my NCAA Wagers on teams to win the whole thing, and see where we stand:
- Vanderbilt 40-1 (current: 40-1). They've lost every meaningful game they've played. Consider this bet dead in the water.
- Wisconsin 50-1 (current 40-1). I have no idea why I made this bet, but it came it at 1am on a Friday when I probably had a drink or two. I think Wisconsin is incredibly overrated this year and they'll be lucky to win 10 Big 10 games so I don't think they remotely have a teeny tiny shot at winning the NCAA Tournament. I guess I can consider this a hedge against the pure agony that would result if the Badgers did, in fact, find a way to win.
- Xavier 25 -1 (current: 40-1). I have no idea why this number dropped. The Musketeers dropped 3 of their last 4 but were dealing with the suspensions and other fallout from the fight with Cincy. Prior to that they had wins over Vandy, Georgia, Purdue, and Butler. None of those teams are good, but none of them are terrible either (well, maybe Butler) so X was rolling well pre-throwdown. I don't know. I'd recommend you take a look at this one if you are looking to throw some gambling money around. I also just found that I have a little extra on these guys from even earlier at 60-1. So that's good.
- Illinois 100-1 (current: 200-1). Was purely a value play at the time. Based on the athleticism of Paul and Richardson and the great off-season reports on Leonard I thought it was worth a shot. Clearly that hasn't played itself out so far, but the win over Gonzaga and a 4-point loss to Mizzou say this team still has potential. At 200-1 any person with a gambling account should throw $1 on this.
- Texas A&M 100-1 (current: 100-1). Tough to get a read on these guys because they've spent most of the year without their best player, but he's back now and they lost to Rice. Not loving this one.
- Syracuse 15-1 (current 6-1). Feeling pretty good about this one, as the Cuse are one of the legit 5 best teams in the country.
- New Mexico 100-1 (current: 300-1). Garbage bet.
- Arizona 60-1 (current 60-1). I have no idea why this number hasn't moved. Arizona is completely awful and can't beat anybody. On the bright side, they're in the Pac-12 which is like puking on your own face so they're guaranteed to at least make the tournament. Kind of.
- Florida 40-1 (current 25-1). My favorite bet. The Gators pretty clearly had the kind of back court players that can lead you to a championship, the only question was if they'd have enough in the front court to be able to make a real push. Patric Young and Erik Murphy have answered that and Florida might be the best "sleeper" team out there. They hung right with Ohio State and Syracuse, blew out TAMU and FSU, and likely will only play 3-ranked teams the rest of the regular season (Kentucky twice and Miss State) so they'll end up with a favorable seed. There's still value here at 25-1 - in fact I just threw a few more bucks at it.
- Missouri 75-1 (current 20-1). My second favorite bet, if only because I have half the amount on Mizzou that I have on Florida. Advanced metics adore what Missouri has done this year and it's tough to argue with the results because they're 12-0, ranked in the top 10, and have blown out pretty much everybody they've played. I'm not sure there's value left here at 20-1 because that style of play can backfire hard, but if they swoon a bit and drop to 30 or 40 to 1 jump on that.
- Baylor 35-1 (current 10-1). According to current odds (and preseason odds), the most likely winner I have money on and I do feel pretty good about it. They're crushing teams, winning on the road, and winning some tough battles (including the semi-home win over a good Miss State team tonight). I don't like them much at 10-1, but at 35-1 it was a great bet.
- UCONN 30-1 (current 20-1). I grabbed this the minute it came across Twitter that Andre Drummond was going to be playing this year, before they had a chance to move the line (it moved all the way to 10-1). It's tough to know where the value should be here because they haven't really been tested yet, but there's certainly plenty of talent. And if Drummond keeps improving they could still end up snagging a 1 or 2 seed. Really. It's also my biggest bet out of all the futures I'm on, so I'd like this one to hit yes please.
- Iowa State 200-1 (current 500-1). I took this one back in May. Yes, May. Figured it was worth a shot. Oops.
- I was going to write a bunch more about the NBA (Rubio rocks, Lakers suck), the Saints (Brees's record should really have an asterisk), Jayma Mayes (sneaky hot), and Ginger Snaps (underrated movie), but I'm bored now and to be honest that comment you had about my gambling problem really hurt. I'm not mad mad, but I don't think we should talk for a little bit. Just to show you there's no hard feelings I'll leave you with a pic of Katharine Isabelle (star of Ginger Snaps), but we probably shouldn't talk for a while. Especially because you're going to say she's a plain jane, aren't you, you sick son of a bitch?
 | |
| You gonna tell me this is a plain jane too, dickfuck? |
Tuesday, December 27, 2011
Gophers lose, but almost win
I'm not generally one who goes in for moral victories, but going into Illinois and coming out with a close loss in two overtimes is a pretty good sign for the Gophers' fortunes this year. Of course, on the other hand, having your best free throw shooter brick the front end of a one-and-one in a situation where he could have iced the game, and then once again NOT getting a shot off in an end of game situation, says this is another blown opportunity. I'd like to watch more, but I've only seen the last 2 minutes of regulation and a few minutes of the overtimes. Let me explain.
My parents took the kids overnight tonight. My wife works from home and usually works from 7-midnight or so when I'm home to watch the kids. But I have the entire week off since I'm so awesome so she was able to work during the day today and so we had the entire night free. We decided to go see Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (sidenote: AWESOME) and I tivo'd the game with the intention of watching the game when we got back. When I mentioned this on the ride home wife gave me one of those looks that made it very clear that going in the basement by myself to watch basketball when we have an empty house to ourselves and she doesn't have to work would not be a very good idea. So I watched the important parts instead.
I'm considering doing a game blog tomorrow if I end up watching it, since I don't have to work like a sucker, but I'm just not sure. Knowing that's the end result may be too painful. Stay tuned.
My parents took the kids overnight tonight. My wife works from home and usually works from 7-midnight or so when I'm home to watch the kids. But I have the entire week off since I'm so awesome so she was able to work during the day today and so we had the entire night free. We decided to go see Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (sidenote: AWESOME) and I tivo'd the game with the intention of watching the game when we got back. When I mentioned this on the ride home wife gave me one of those looks that made it very clear that going in the basement by myself to watch basketball when we have an empty house to ourselves and she doesn't have to work would not be a very good idea. So I watched the important parts instead.
I'm considering doing a game blog tomorrow if I end up watching it, since I don't have to work like a sucker, but I'm just not sure. Knowing that's the end result may be too painful. Stay tuned.
For the Whiners: Gophers vs. Illini Preview
I wasn't going to do a preview because with all the running around for christmas and what not I just didn't have time. Unfortunately, however, there has been a ton of whining so I suppose I should put something up: I really don't think the Gophers can hang with Illinois.
The Gophers have that sparkling 12-1 record, but they've got there mainly by playing poorly, falling behind, and then relying on their superior talent and athleticism to come back and win - sometimes by a lot. The problem with this strategy is that Illinois is both more talented and more athletic than the Gophers. Thus the only way the Gophers can beat Illinois (at Illinois, especially) is by executing on both ends of the floor with near flawless precision. Unfortunately, there was only one game this year (Va Tech) where this team even approached that level of excellence, and I'm not so sure I see it happening again against Illinois, one of the best defensive teams in the land (#22 in defensive efficiency).
To make matters slightly worse, Illinois's only defensive weakness is defending the 3-pointer where they are merely average, but as we know the Gophers can't really exploit this because they can't shoot it and don't really even look to shoot it. On the bright side, Illinois isn't much of a three-point threat, but they love to drive to the rim - something the Gophers couldn't stop against the nerds on NDSU so I have no idea how they're going to stop Illinois. Even if they can somehow keep Brandon Paul and D.J. Richardson out of the lane (doubtful), they have no answer for Meyers Leonard in the paint unless Ralph suddenly mans up.
NOT BLOODY LIKELY.
Illinois 70, Minnesota 54
The Gophers have that sparkling 12-1 record, but they've got there mainly by playing poorly, falling behind, and then relying on their superior talent and athleticism to come back and win - sometimes by a lot. The problem with this strategy is that Illinois is both more talented and more athletic than the Gophers. Thus the only way the Gophers can beat Illinois (at Illinois, especially) is by executing on both ends of the floor with near flawless precision. Unfortunately, there was only one game this year (Va Tech) where this team even approached that level of excellence, and I'm not so sure I see it happening again against Illinois, one of the best defensive teams in the land (#22 in defensive efficiency).
To make matters slightly worse, Illinois's only defensive weakness is defending the 3-pointer where they are merely average, but as we know the Gophers can't really exploit this because they can't shoot it and don't really even look to shoot it. On the bright side, Illinois isn't much of a three-point threat, but they love to drive to the rim - something the Gophers couldn't stop against the nerds on NDSU so I have no idea how they're going to stop Illinois. Even if they can somehow keep Brandon Paul and D.J. Richardson out of the lane (doubtful), they have no answer for Meyers Leonard in the paint unless Ralph suddenly mans up.
NOT BLOODY LIKELY.
Illinois 70, Minnesota 54
Saturday, December 24, 2011
Thursday, December 22, 2011
Some Hard Truths about the Gophers
The 12-1 start is nice and shiny and everything and you probably think the Gophers are good, but it's time to face the cold hard truth: the Gophers are not an NCAA Tournament caliber team. Not even close. Take a look at these arguments and tell me where I'm wrong. No, seriously: please tell me where I'm wrong, I'd absolutely love to be convinced that I don't know what I'm talking about. Hit up the game with $nake, Dawger, and Bear tonight (there, you guys happy with the mention) and I think we all left feeling like we'd been punched in the stomach so hard we were about to vomit. Here are my comments, please comment on my comments and convince me I don't know what I'm talking about:
1) They play terrible defense. Did you see that garbage tonight? NDSU attacked the rim again and again and again, and even their mediocre guards were getting edges on the Gophers, and with zero help defense on the interior for some reason they were able to get fouled or get lay-ups way too often for their talent level. What's going to happen when Brandon Paul and D.J. Richardson come flying down the wing? Throw in some of the worst three-point defense in the country (seriously, they were 292nd in the country in 3-point defense going into the game) and how many points do you think William Buford will score? 25? 30? Hell Matt "12 points every game" Gatens will probably hit for 20. They can probably hold down Penn State, but I'm pretty sure that's the whole list of teams they can stop
2) They have zero inside presence. With Mbakwe down the Gophers inside players are now reduced to a dude who makes Jeff Hagen look like a prima ballerina and a guy who is the softest dude I've seen since the black dude in those Revenge of the Nerds movie. One plays defense with the mobility of a tree and the other is more like a weeping willow, and they're getting brutalized by a bunch of weakass low major players. Jared Sullinger is going to make them cry. Hell I'm not so sure Luka Mirkovich isn't going to go for a double-double (just kidding - sort of). The team's only prayer is for Andre Ingram to get bitten by a radioactive spider that gives him super powers. Seriously, Ralph, you cannot be pushed around by non-recruited players who are 3 inches shorter than you. It's just pathetic. I'm pretty sure every rebound "Once bounce Ralph" got tonight hit the floor first. I'm just done. I've defending him for 3+ years and I'm done. He's averaging 4 god damn rebounds per game against this shitbox level of competition. FOUR! He's fucking seven-feet tall and playing shitty teams with shitty players and he gets four rebounds per game? You know who else can get four rebounds per game? Fucking anybody.
3) There is no reliable offensive option. None. Rodney is the leading scorer but most of his offense comes off fast breaks and put-backs which may or may not translate in Big 10 play, and outside of him who do you go to? There isn't a single perimeter player who you can count on to either make a shot or penetrate which is just sad. Sometimes Welch looks like he gets it and could develop into something, but then you remember he's already a junior and slower than the fat lady with the cart full of ham at Walmart. And the one guy who is supposed to be a shooter (Oto) is so hesitant to take his shot you'd think he's a walk-on. When Maverick Ahanmisi looks like your best guard things have gone wrong in a horribly shocking way. Look, I like Mav. I think he's the best pure point guard on the team and he's looking like the best shooter (god help us), but he's a back-up. He may become a very good back-up, but he's a back-up. When he carries the offense (like tonight) it's a massive cry for help. Unfortunately due to NCAA regulations it appears you can't just magically add someone in mid-season. Commies.
4) The talent level is mediocre. I'm sorry, but how many Gopher players would start for even half of the other Big 10 teams? Rodney Williams, right? Is there even another one? Maybe Ralph just based on his height, but his passivity and wienershipitude would have most Big 10 coaches sending him to the bench. Who would you rather have, Ralph or that fat dude from Michigan State (not Draymond Green, the other one)? Sampson is more talented but at least that Spartan dude will throw his J-Lo ass into somebody and get rough in there and mix it up when the need arises. The guards? Not a chance. The Hollins's's would probably start for Penn State and Nebraska, but I don't even think they'd get the nod over Cartwright and Gatens at Iowa. 50/50 probably. How sad is that?
5) There is no offensive scheme. What, exactly, does Tubby do? Clearly he coaches defense, and the team occasionally responds, but offensively they're just awful - and I'm talking outside of the players' talent level. How many times tonight were there four dudes standing around while somebody dribbled? And why (like, WHY????) did Rodney never ever ever get the ball posting up in the second half? Not once. Not one single solitary time (I'm pretty sure). He's their only semi-reliable option to score or get fouled and against a team like NDSU they should have made him the focus, but instead the offense consisted of hoping a guard could go one-and-one and get a shot. It worked just enough for them to win tonight, but against the real grown-up defenses in the conference the combination of a lack of offensive talent and a lack of offensive imagination or even a simple game plan is going to sink them in a hurry.
I will admit it's possible I'm overreacting to one of the worst played games I've ever seen and just being a spaz, but I'm having trouble seeing more than 7 Big 10 wins. So please, somebody tell what I'm wrong about. Please.
To cheer myself up, here is a picture of J-Woww in a bikini.
1) They play terrible defense. Did you see that garbage tonight? NDSU attacked the rim again and again and again, and even their mediocre guards were getting edges on the Gophers, and with zero help defense on the interior for some reason they were able to get fouled or get lay-ups way too often for their talent level. What's going to happen when Brandon Paul and D.J. Richardson come flying down the wing? Throw in some of the worst three-point defense in the country (seriously, they were 292nd in the country in 3-point defense going into the game) and how many points do you think William Buford will score? 25? 30? Hell Matt "12 points every game" Gatens will probably hit for 20. They can probably hold down Penn State, but I'm pretty sure that's the whole list of teams they can stop
2) They have zero inside presence. With Mbakwe down the Gophers inside players are now reduced to a dude who makes Jeff Hagen look like a prima ballerina and a guy who is the softest dude I've seen since the black dude in those Revenge of the Nerds movie. One plays defense with the mobility of a tree and the other is more like a weeping willow, and they're getting brutalized by a bunch of weakass low major players. Jared Sullinger is going to make them cry. Hell I'm not so sure Luka Mirkovich isn't going to go for a double-double (just kidding - sort of). The team's only prayer is for Andre Ingram to get bitten by a radioactive spider that gives him super powers. Seriously, Ralph, you cannot be pushed around by non-recruited players who are 3 inches shorter than you. It's just pathetic. I'm pretty sure every rebound "Once bounce Ralph" got tonight hit the floor first. I'm just done. I've defending him for 3+ years and I'm done. He's averaging 4 god damn rebounds per game against this shitbox level of competition. FOUR! He's fucking seven-feet tall and playing shitty teams with shitty players and he gets four rebounds per game? You know who else can get four rebounds per game? Fucking anybody.
3) There is no reliable offensive option. None. Rodney is the leading scorer but most of his offense comes off fast breaks and put-backs which may or may not translate in Big 10 play, and outside of him who do you go to? There isn't a single perimeter player who you can count on to either make a shot or penetrate which is just sad. Sometimes Welch looks like he gets it and could develop into something, but then you remember he's already a junior and slower than the fat lady with the cart full of ham at Walmart. And the one guy who is supposed to be a shooter (Oto) is so hesitant to take his shot you'd think he's a walk-on. When Maverick Ahanmisi looks like your best guard things have gone wrong in a horribly shocking way. Look, I like Mav. I think he's the best pure point guard on the team and he's looking like the best shooter (god help us), but he's a back-up. He may become a very good back-up, but he's a back-up. When he carries the offense (like tonight) it's a massive cry for help. Unfortunately due to NCAA regulations it appears you can't just magically add someone in mid-season. Commies.
4) The talent level is mediocre. I'm sorry, but how many Gopher players would start for even half of the other Big 10 teams? Rodney Williams, right? Is there even another one? Maybe Ralph just based on his height, but his passivity and wienershipitude would have most Big 10 coaches sending him to the bench. Who would you rather have, Ralph or that fat dude from Michigan State (not Draymond Green, the other one)? Sampson is more talented but at least that Spartan dude will throw his J-Lo ass into somebody and get rough in there and mix it up when the need arises. The guards? Not a chance. The Hollins's's would probably start for Penn State and Nebraska, but I don't even think they'd get the nod over Cartwright and Gatens at Iowa. 50/50 probably. How sad is that?
5) There is no offensive scheme. What, exactly, does Tubby do? Clearly he coaches defense, and the team occasionally responds, but offensively they're just awful - and I'm talking outside of the players' talent level. How many times tonight were there four dudes standing around while somebody dribbled? And why (like, WHY????) did Rodney never ever ever get the ball posting up in the second half? Not once. Not one single solitary time (I'm pretty sure). He's their only semi-reliable option to score or get fouled and against a team like NDSU they should have made him the focus, but instead the offense consisted of hoping a guard could go one-and-one and get a shot. It worked just enough for them to win tonight, but against the real grown-up defenses in the conference the combination of a lack of offensive talent and a lack of offensive imagination or even a simple game plan is going to sink them in a hurry.
I will admit it's possible I'm overreacting to one of the worst played games I've ever seen and just being a spaz, but I'm having trouble seeing more than 7 Big 10 wins. So please, somebody tell what I'm wrong about. Please.
To cheer myself up, here is a picture of J-Woww in a bikini.
Tuesday, December 20, 2011
Preview: Minnesota Gophers vs. North Dakota State Bison or whatever
North Dakota? More like North Dasnowka, am I right? I have no idea why I just wrote that. But then again, you read it, so I think it was probably your fault. Let's just agree to disagree.
Anyway, the Bison come to the Barn Thursday to take on the Gophers and I couldn't be more pumped. Wait, no. I mean the opposite of that. Apathetic. That's not right either. Less-pumped. Something.
I guess they aren't terrible. They do have a 8-2 record and rank as the 107th best team in the country according to Ken Pomeroy's advanced metrics, but even though those take opponent into account this is still a fantastically terrible schedule. Their best opponent so far has been Arizona State (rank #144) who beat them by ten. They also have a pretty terrible loss to Western Carolina (#242) and there are only four other top 200 teams on the schedule. It's hard to get any kind of read on a team with that line of shitbox schedule, but thanks to advanced stats I'll try.
The Bison have done well this season by holding opponents to poor shooting (both from 3 and 2), shooting well themselves (particularly from 2), and taking care of the basketball. The Gophers don't shoot and can't shoot from three so that's pretty irrelevant, and the Gophers biggest weakness should at least be minimized because although the Bison are a decent three-point shooting team they don't take that many - this game will be played inside the perimeter. Both teams' strengths are shooting inside the 2-point line and both defend there well, with the Gophers having a slight edge. The Gophers also commit and cause a whole lot of turnovers, while the Bison don't cause any and commit even fewer. It's a fairly even match looking at strengths and weaknesses, and I'm going to be honest here - that makes me nervous.
On an individual basis, the Bison employ a very balanced attack with five players scoring between 8.5-14.1 points per game and being involved in at least 20% of the team's possessions. And oh my holy christ I'm boring myself to sleep. How do people do this all serious like this all the time. I'm done.
Here's what you need to know:
NDSU sucks. They suck. They don't suck like in a way where the Gophers can't possibly lose like Mt. St. Mary's or some shit, but they're terrible, they've played nobody, they've beaten nobody, and they've been beaten by some piss poor teams. There is absolutely no way the Gophers shouldn't beat them down like Stephen Davis did to Michael Westbrook. Or the other way around, I don't remember. Doesn't matter. North Dakota sucks. The team sucks, the program sucks, everything sucks. I know they had their cute little run with all those white guys who lost to Kansas, but that was a once in a lifetime experience because they just suck. The one time I somehow ended up in that stupid state even their Taco John's sucked which should be impossible.
If you wanted to be some kind of dicknose and spin things in NDSU's favor you could say that the team is really balanced and has a lot of quality players. Of course, the real reason they're balanced is because they don't have any good players and are just loaded with adequate ones. Any one of a half-dozen guys could kill the Gophers, but none of them should. As an added bonus they only have one good 3-point shooter (Mike Felt "erup"), so as long as the Gophers remember that he's the guy they need to watch (terrifying prospect) they shouldn't get beat out there, and NDSU simply doesn't have the athletes to beat them in any other way.
When lines come out I fully expect this one to be the Gophers by about 10 (that's what kenpom predicts it at and the lines are usually pretty close). If they can't beat this crap factory by at least that there's no reason to even bother with this season. Look I'm sorry. They're a cute little team who probably makes the folks in Sioux Falls feel all tingly inside when they beat up on Nebraska-Omaho at the Indian Hater Dome or whatever, but if this team can hang with the Gophers it doesn't mean "look out for the Sues" it means "the Gophers fucking suck."
I don't know. Maybe I'm just cranky because Kubel left but I'm not ok with an 8 point win or some shit. Blow these fuckers out. It's like playing five Rudys, and Rudy is one of the worst movies of my lifetime. No, I'm serious. If you like that movie you should do a cannonball onto a pitchfork. So stupid. Great, so the little wiener gets his big chance and gets a sack. And then what? HE'S SPENT HIS WHOLE FUCKING LIFE GETTING PAID TO TALK ABOUT IT. What a loser. And now it turns out he might have been stealing people's money. I don't know, google it. This shit is bananas.
Gophers 99, Sioux 30. Also I just realized at some point in this garbage rant I started referring to the Bison as the Sioux. My bad and all but also not my fault because it's irrelevant because they're both the same because they both suck and should get physically assaulted by the Gophers. Whatever. Like it's even a real state.
Anyway, the Bison come to the Barn Thursday to take on the Gophers and I couldn't be more pumped. Wait, no. I mean the opposite of that. Apathetic. That's not right either. Less-pumped. Something.
I guess they aren't terrible. They do have a 8-2 record and rank as the 107th best team in the country according to Ken Pomeroy's advanced metrics, but even though those take opponent into account this is still a fantastically terrible schedule. Their best opponent so far has been Arizona State (rank #144) who beat them by ten. They also have a pretty terrible loss to Western Carolina (#242) and there are only four other top 200 teams on the schedule. It's hard to get any kind of read on a team with that line of shitbox schedule, but thanks to advanced stats I'll try.
The Bison have done well this season by holding opponents to poor shooting (both from 3 and 2), shooting well themselves (particularly from 2), and taking care of the basketball. The Gophers don't shoot and can't shoot from three so that's pretty irrelevant, and the Gophers biggest weakness should at least be minimized because although the Bison are a decent three-point shooting team they don't take that many - this game will be played inside the perimeter. Both teams' strengths are shooting inside the 2-point line and both defend there well, with the Gophers having a slight edge. The Gophers also commit and cause a whole lot of turnovers, while the Bison don't cause any and commit even fewer. It's a fairly even match looking at strengths and weaknesses, and I'm going to be honest here - that makes me nervous.
On an individual basis, the Bison employ a very balanced attack with five players scoring between 8.5-14.1 points per game and being involved in at least 20% of the team's possessions. And oh my holy christ I'm boring myself to sleep. How do people do this all serious like this all the time. I'm done.
Here's what you need to know:
NDSU sucks. They suck. They don't suck like in a way where the Gophers can't possibly lose like Mt. St. Mary's or some shit, but they're terrible, they've played nobody, they've beaten nobody, and they've been beaten by some piss poor teams. There is absolutely no way the Gophers shouldn't beat them down like Stephen Davis did to Michael Westbrook. Or the other way around, I don't remember. Doesn't matter. North Dakota sucks. The team sucks, the program sucks, everything sucks. I know they had their cute little run with all those white guys who lost to Kansas, but that was a once in a lifetime experience because they just suck. The one time I somehow ended up in that stupid state even their Taco John's sucked which should be impossible.
If you wanted to be some kind of dicknose and spin things in NDSU's favor you could say that the team is really balanced and has a lot of quality players. Of course, the real reason they're balanced is because they don't have any good players and are just loaded with adequate ones. Any one of a half-dozen guys could kill the Gophers, but none of them should. As an added bonus they only have one good 3-point shooter (Mike Felt "erup"), so as long as the Gophers remember that he's the guy they need to watch (terrifying prospect) they shouldn't get beat out there, and NDSU simply doesn't have the athletes to beat them in any other way.
When lines come out I fully expect this one to be the Gophers by about 10 (that's what kenpom predicts it at and the lines are usually pretty close). If they can't beat this crap factory by at least that there's no reason to even bother with this season. Look I'm sorry. They're a cute little team who probably makes the folks in Sioux Falls feel all tingly inside when they beat up on Nebraska-Omaho at the Indian Hater Dome or whatever, but if this team can hang with the Gophers it doesn't mean "look out for the Sues" it means "the Gophers fucking suck."
I don't know. Maybe I'm just cranky because Kubel left but I'm not ok with an 8 point win or some shit. Blow these fuckers out. It's like playing five Rudys, and Rudy is one of the worst movies of my lifetime. No, I'm serious. If you like that movie you should do a cannonball onto a pitchfork. So stupid. Great, so the little wiener gets his big chance and gets a sack. And then what? HE'S SPENT HIS WHOLE FUCKING LIFE GETTING PAID TO TALK ABOUT IT. What a loser. And now it turns out he might have been stealing people's money. I don't know, google it. This shit is bananas.
Gophers 99, Sioux 30. Also I just realized at some point in this garbage rant I started referring to the Bison as the Sioux. My bad and all but also not my fault because it's irrelevant because they're both the same because they both suck and should get physically assaulted by the Gophers. Whatever. Like it's even a real state.
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| Will you look at this? What the shit is this? |
Monday, December 19, 2011
Monday Musings (and good-bye, my love)
You know what's crazy? I am super excited for the NBA to be back. Actually I guess that's not all that crazy because I get excited for the NBA every single year. I get all jacked up and decide that I'm going to really dedicate myself to following the NBA all season long rather than just jumping in for the playoffs, and it's finally time to really become an NBA fan. Then, at some point in the second quarter, I watch a defender not fight through a screen, the picker not roll, the wide open jump shooter clang it off the rim and the team with the ball getting a put back basket because nobody boxed out and the only one who jumped for teh rebound was the 2nd year power forward who still tried on every play. And now they're playing back-to-back-to-backs and 66 games in like, 3 months or something like that.
Yet, here I am, getting all excited to watch the NBA on Christmas Day. God I'm so dumb. Here's some other quick stuff, in lieu of a Week in Review post which I was too lazy to write.
- I guess the most obvious thing is the sad news that Jason Kubel will no longer be a Twin after signing for 2 years, $15 million with the D-Backs. I've been pissed off at signings before (when Mussina left the O's for the Yankees I swore off baseball - for some reason I grew up a rabid Oriole fan), and others moves have left me stunned (when Brunansky was traded for Herr I distinctly remember calling my dad a liar, which he wasn't pleased about), but this is the first time I've been broken hearted, or at least as broken hearted as a reasonably rational adult male can be about sports.
I can't even be mad. That 2 year, $15 million dollar deal is probably more than Kubel is worth considering he's a poor fielder, struggles against lefties, and has trouble staying healthy so I can't be mad at him for taking it or mad at the Twins for not matching/beating it (although I am a bit perturbed that they seemingly wrote him off and never seemed to care about trying to retain him). So that's why I'm just sad, not angry at anybody.
I don't even know why I love Kubel so much, but I know his is one of only two articles of clothing I own with another man's name on the back (I also have a Denard Span shirt for some reason). He is also the first player who I ever broke down and bought a shirt/jersey off with my own money (at other points I had owned a LaDainian Tomlinson jersey and a Randy Moss jersey - both gifts). He's not particularly fast, or athletic, or anything. His best skill is hitting the baseball, but he'll never be confused with Albert Pujols. He doesn't even have the small, scrappy gamer thing going for him (although that would have made me hate him). I think the reason Kubel is so loved, by me and many others, is because he seems like an every man. Just a cool, laid back dude who would love to play softball and then pounds some beers. Except in his case instead of softball he crushes pitches from the best baseball throwers in the world and gets millions to do it.
Obviously I won't be able to follow his career as closely when he ships on over to the land where games start at 10:30pm, but god knows I'll try. I'm not sure anybody will ever surpass him as my favorite Twin. And yet we're stuck with Joe fucking Mauer and his enema of a contract and Justin Morneau who may or may not know what year it is. This blows.
- On to other, less soul crushing things, you know all that talk about how great Cody Zeller was going to be right off the bat and was the kind of player who could turn Indiana's program right around? Well I think for once the hype was right because I had a chance to actually watch this dude against Notre Dame (a game the Hoosiers won by 11) and he's absolutely the real deal. There was one play where he blocked a lay-up attempt some some poor bastard on the Irish, then beat the defense down the court for an easy score. He's really athletic for his size, very polished for a freshman, and can pass like a guard, and is like whoa. I now feel very dirty for liking a Hoosier this much. I'm going to go take like, six showers and then burn myself with matches.
- As long as I'm talkin' Big Ten players who brokeout or whatever I guess we should talk DeShaun Thomas after his 30 point outburst against South Carolina (on 13-16 shooting!!) which followed his 23-point game (on 10-15 shooting). Not surprising, since if you watched Thomas last year you could see he had the potential to be a big time scorer and I'm pretty sure he led the nation in points per minute last year (and shots per minute). When he's hot and hitting he's going to put up major points since he's basically always taking a heat check, and he's been on fire lately which is good timing since Sullinger has a constant hangnail or something. Of course, it's going to also be fun when he goes 1-14 in a game and shoots the Buckeyes into a loss. Hopefully against the Gophers. Ok I laughed when I typed that.
- Sticking with the Big 10, just when you think everything is hunky dory along comes to Purdue to mess everything up by losing to Butler (Illinois lost a home game to UNLV as well, but that's at least understandable). Now, in case you haven't been paying attention this year Butler isn't the same Butler they've been for the last several seasons - they straight up suck. They were 4-6 going into the Purdue game, and that includes losses to Ball State, Valpo, and Evansville, with their wins coming against three truly dreadful teams and a D-II opponent. And yet Purdue managed to lose on a tip-in at the buzzer on a neutral court. Ouch. It's probably the worst loss by a Big Ten team other than Nebraska, Penn State, or Iowa. Nice work, dingleberries.
- Sigh. I hate this, but it's time to admit that Washington, although the most fun team to watch ever, are pretty clearly not an NCAA caliber team. A completely embarrassing loss to South Dakota State - at home by 19 - slams that home pretty clearly and drops Washington to 5-5 on the season. I suppose none of the other losses are that bad by themselves (@ St. Louis, @ Nevada in OT, and versus Marquette and Duke in Madison Square Garden) but good god, a 20 pt loss to SDSU? Maybe I'm overreacting but I'm just disgusted. South Dakota State opened up a 35-14 lead early and never looked back, riding 55% shooting (10-16 from 3), and 26-32 free throw shooting to an easy, and shocking, win. I suppose whenever a Pac-10 team loses it shouldn't be a surprise (Arizona also got blown out by Gonzaga), but damn, this is just sad. I miss Captain Circus Ball.
- Ha-ha, stupid Packers. Go around all cockin' off about how you were gonna go for the perfect season and guess what happens? You get punched in the mouth by a crappy crap team with a 40 year old running back, a QB nobody wants, very little talent, and a completely dopey head coach. On one hand, it's possible this loss refocuses them and they get better, but on the other hand a perfect Packer season is more than I could possibly take and either end up killing myself or somebody would end up dead after I raged out. It was so fun watching the last two minutes of the game where the Packers needed a stop badly but their little sissy soft defense full of nancy boy hippy girls couldn't stop the Chiefs running game even when they knew damn well a running play was coming. Seemed like all the talk about the Packer D being statistically poor only because they always had the lead might have just been wishful thinking, because these guys are freaking terrible. In conclusion, go to hell Green Bay.
Seriously though. I feel like Mel Gibson in that movie where he's all like "Give me back my Kubel!" You know what I'm talking about. The only thing cheering me up at all is I just saw the Christmas card we got from $nake and guess what? His youngest son is wearing a Yankee cap in the picture they used. A Yankee cap. The Yankees. The New York Yankees. Jesus, what an asshole.
Yet, here I am, getting all excited to watch the NBA on Christmas Day. God I'm so dumb. Here's some other quick stuff, in lieu of a Week in Review post which I was too lazy to write.
- I guess the most obvious thing is the sad news that Jason Kubel will no longer be a Twin after signing for 2 years, $15 million with the D-Backs. I've been pissed off at signings before (when Mussina left the O's for the Yankees I swore off baseball - for some reason I grew up a rabid Oriole fan), and others moves have left me stunned (when Brunansky was traded for Herr I distinctly remember calling my dad a liar, which he wasn't pleased about), but this is the first time I've been broken hearted, or at least as broken hearted as a reasonably rational adult male can be about sports.
I can't even be mad. That 2 year, $15 million dollar deal is probably more than Kubel is worth considering he's a poor fielder, struggles against lefties, and has trouble staying healthy so I can't be mad at him for taking it or mad at the Twins for not matching/beating it (although I am a bit perturbed that they seemingly wrote him off and never seemed to care about trying to retain him). So that's why I'm just sad, not angry at anybody.
I don't even know why I love Kubel so much, but I know his is one of only two articles of clothing I own with another man's name on the back (I also have a Denard Span shirt for some reason). He is also the first player who I ever broke down and bought a shirt/jersey off with my own money (at other points I had owned a LaDainian Tomlinson jersey and a Randy Moss jersey - both gifts). He's not particularly fast, or athletic, or anything. His best skill is hitting the baseball, but he'll never be confused with Albert Pujols. He doesn't even have the small, scrappy gamer thing going for him (although that would have made me hate him). I think the reason Kubel is so loved, by me and many others, is because he seems like an every man. Just a cool, laid back dude who would love to play softball and then pounds some beers. Except in his case instead of softball he crushes pitches from the best baseball throwers in the world and gets millions to do it.
Obviously I won't be able to follow his career as closely when he ships on over to the land where games start at 10:30pm, but god knows I'll try. I'm not sure anybody will ever surpass him as my favorite Twin. And yet we're stuck with Joe fucking Mauer and his enema of a contract and Justin Morneau who may or may not know what year it is. This blows.
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| Tell me this guy wouldn't love to destroy you at Beer Pong. |
- On to other, less soul crushing things, you know all that talk about how great Cody Zeller was going to be right off the bat and was the kind of player who could turn Indiana's program right around? Well I think for once the hype was right because I had a chance to actually watch this dude against Notre Dame (a game the Hoosiers won by 11) and he's absolutely the real deal. There was one play where he blocked a lay-up attempt some some poor bastard on the Irish, then beat the defense down the court for an easy score. He's really athletic for his size, very polished for a freshman, and can pass like a guard, and is like whoa. I now feel very dirty for liking a Hoosier this much. I'm going to go take like, six showers and then burn myself with matches.
- As long as I'm talkin' Big Ten players who brokeout or whatever I guess we should talk DeShaun Thomas after his 30 point outburst against South Carolina (on 13-16 shooting!!) which followed his 23-point game (on 10-15 shooting). Not surprising, since if you watched Thomas last year you could see he had the potential to be a big time scorer and I'm pretty sure he led the nation in points per minute last year (and shots per minute). When he's hot and hitting he's going to put up major points since he's basically always taking a heat check, and he's been on fire lately which is good timing since Sullinger has a constant hangnail or something. Of course, it's going to also be fun when he goes 1-14 in a game and shoots the Buckeyes into a loss. Hopefully against the Gophers. Ok I laughed when I typed that.
- Sticking with the Big 10, just when you think everything is hunky dory along comes to Purdue to mess everything up by losing to Butler (Illinois lost a home game to UNLV as well, but that's at least understandable). Now, in case you haven't been paying attention this year Butler isn't the same Butler they've been for the last several seasons - they straight up suck. They were 4-6 going into the Purdue game, and that includes losses to Ball State, Valpo, and Evansville, with their wins coming against three truly dreadful teams and a D-II opponent. And yet Purdue managed to lose on a tip-in at the buzzer on a neutral court. Ouch. It's probably the worst loss by a Big Ten team other than Nebraska, Penn State, or Iowa. Nice work, dingleberries.
- Sigh. I hate this, but it's time to admit that Washington, although the most fun team to watch ever, are pretty clearly not an NCAA caliber team. A completely embarrassing loss to South Dakota State - at home by 19 - slams that home pretty clearly and drops Washington to 5-5 on the season. I suppose none of the other losses are that bad by themselves (@ St. Louis, @ Nevada in OT, and versus Marquette and Duke in Madison Square Garden) but good god, a 20 pt loss to SDSU? Maybe I'm overreacting but I'm just disgusted. South Dakota State opened up a 35-14 lead early and never looked back, riding 55% shooting (10-16 from 3), and 26-32 free throw shooting to an easy, and shocking, win. I suppose whenever a Pac-10 team loses it shouldn't be a surprise (Arizona also got blown out by Gonzaga), but damn, this is just sad. I miss Captain Circus Ball.
- Ha-ha, stupid Packers. Go around all cockin' off about how you were gonna go for the perfect season and guess what happens? You get punched in the mouth by a crappy crap team with a 40 year old running back, a QB nobody wants, very little talent, and a completely dopey head coach. On one hand, it's possible this loss refocuses them and they get better, but on the other hand a perfect Packer season is more than I could possibly take and either end up killing myself or somebody would end up dead after I raged out. It was so fun watching the last two minutes of the game where the Packers needed a stop badly but their little sissy soft defense full of nancy boy hippy girls couldn't stop the Chiefs running game even when they knew damn well a running play was coming. Seemed like all the talk about the Packer D being statistically poor only because they always had the lead might have just been wishful thinking, because these guys are freaking terrible. In conclusion, go to hell Green Bay.
Seriously though. I feel like Mel Gibson in that movie where he's all like "Give me back my Kubel!" You know what I'm talking about. The only thing cheering me up at all is I just saw the Christmas card we got from $nake and guess what? His youngest son is wearing a Yankee cap in the picture they used. A Yankee cap. The Yankees. The New York Yankees. Jesus, what an asshole.
Wednesday, December 14, 2011
Notes from 50,000 feet (Welcome to the Twins, Willy + Paul trade reaction)
I'm on a plane. And it has wi-fi. What a glorious time to be alive. A lot has seemingly changed since I changed jobs and stop flying to random cities basically monthly and getting drunk on a bathroom sink full of Coors Lights. This is actually my first business trip since almost exactly a year ago when I went to LA (which is where I'm going today again). Of course, not that much has changed because the freaking reading lights don't work on this god forsaken plane, so I'm forced to either sleep or type. Awesome. Also Blake Lewis's version of "You Give Love a Bad Name" just started playing on my ipod, so I'm pretty sure I'm doing something wrong. Anyway. I'm bored. And you're going to listen to me, god help you.
- Biggest news is the signing of Josh Willingham by the Twins for 3 years, $21 million which I'm assuming has been finalized. (side note: Busta Rhymes now on the ipod, things are looking up). Considering this is very close to the contract they offered Michael Cuddyer (3 yrs, $25 mil) and they're both outfielders I think this signals the end of the Cuddyer era in Minnesota, for good or for ill. Let's look first at playing ability.
Both Cuddy and Willingham will be 33 to start next season, and although both are corner outfielders Cuddy is primarily a RF with a great arm and Willingham is a LF with a so-so arm, which automatically raises questions about what happens to the Twins' outfield since neither Span nor Revere can even get the ball from RF to 3B on the fly or so I assume. Fielding-wise, using UZR which is an advanced fielding stat that I couldn't begin to describe but is one of the more popular ones, both were equally shitty range-wise, which backs up what I've seen with my own two eyes. Add in Cuddy's ability to play a sub-par 1st, 2nd, or 3rd and the Twins do lose out slightly in the field with this swap, mostly due to the now lack of a true RF in my eyes.
Batting wise once again these two players are similar. Over the past 3 years, Cuddyer has a slightly higher average (.276 to .257), while Willingham has a slightly higher OBP (.360 to .341) and SLG (.479 to .465), which adds up to Willy's OPS+ of 125 trumping Cuddy's of 117, or about the difference between Troy Tulowitzki and Alex Gordon. Basically Willingham is probably a slightly better hitter, especially power and plate discipline-wise, while Cuddy might get a few more hits here and there. Plus Willingham has outhomered him each of the last two seasons, and although they have a virtually identical number of career HRs (Cuddy wins 141 to 132) Willingham has done it in about 1,300 fewer at-bats than Cuddyer (note: not a typo). So basically the Twins downgraded their defense a bit but upgraded offensively. Cool, you think, but what about the intangibles?
My answer to that question would be to punch you in the face if you were on this plane. Yes, Cuddyer filled a leadership void, but not because he's a great natural leader, but because SOMEBODY had to because Justin Morneau forgot where he was every 15 minutes and had to be reminded and every time Joe Mauer talked to anybody they fell asleep. I don't deny Cuddy provided a valuable service by becoming the face of the team by being in every single commerical, interview, event, and basically throwing himself in front of every camera he saw. I also don't deny that having a guy who is willing to play any position where he's needed, and can do so not embarrassingly, is a nice luxury to have. I also think both of those are very overrated on a baseball team. Not to mention him always chasing the press and forcing them to interview him kept the pressure off Mauer and Morneua, which at times is good but I would argue doing it to that extent during that kind of year is bad. I short, I will listen to your arguments that Cuddy is valuable in ways that have nothing to do with on-field performance, but I will also then dismiss this arguments with a roundhouse kick to our face and a condescending wave of my hand.
The Final piece of the puzzle is perhaps what pushes this from a pretty close to even swap that saves $4 million bucks to a great (well, good) decision by the Twins that saves $4 million bucks. Because Cuddyer was offered arbitration, that means that when Cuddy eventually signs with another team the Twins will receive both a first-round pick and a supplemental pick between rounds 1 and 2. That's good for any team, but for the Twins, whose list of prospects is getting thinner and thinner by the year, that's huge. That basically means two top-35 picks in the next draft, and even if Willingham was a notch below Cuddyer this swap might have been worth it. As it stands, it's the correct move. And if you're crying because Cuddy is gone, well, you're too dumb to care about anyway.
- Looks like this Chris Paul trade went down. Not to follow Bill Simmons' comments, but the Paul to Griffin combo is going to be pretty sick in the open court. I have no idea if Griffin is pick-n-rollable (and actually I don't know if Paul is either), but if they're both adept at the play look out. They also (reportedly) managed to do it without gutting their team. Paul, Billups (who they may regret adding at this point), Bledsoe, DeAndre Jordan, Griffin, and Caron Butler is absolutely a contender, especially if Bledsoe matures (and Jordan to a lesser extent). Not to mention they have decent vet rotation guys in Gomes and Foye (thanks Wolves), and a bunch of young guys (Willie Warren, Travis Leslie, Trey Thompkins). If one of those youngsters breaks out look the hell out. I grabbed some Clips to win the whole thing action at 15-1 last night when it started to look like they were close to getting Paul (heard it was 50-1 earlier in the day, dammit). Interested to see where that goes to.
And it's not like the Hornets screwed themselves either. Kaman is a serviceable center in a league with very few of them, Aminu sucks but has potential, and Eric Gordon is probably one of the best young players in the league (there's a Bill Simmons column on that but I'll be damned if I can find it now). Then there's the pick from the Wolves, which, no matter how optimistic you are, you have to admit is going to be in the lottery. Hopefully it's late, but even if it's late that doesn't mean it ends up late. Especially because the Clippers just traded it, upping the odds it ends up in the top 3 by at least triple. It's a waaaaaay better package than they were getting in the Lakers/Rockets swap so, at least for now, it kind of looks like the league knows what it's doing.
I'm sure there is plenty more to write about, but the plane is landing shortly and they're saying something about turning stuff off, so I must go. Later.
- Biggest news is the signing of Josh Willingham by the Twins for 3 years, $21 million which I'm assuming has been finalized. (side note: Busta Rhymes now on the ipod, things are looking up). Considering this is very close to the contract they offered Michael Cuddyer (3 yrs, $25 mil) and they're both outfielders I think this signals the end of the Cuddyer era in Minnesota, for good or for ill. Let's look first at playing ability.
Both Cuddy and Willingham will be 33 to start next season, and although both are corner outfielders Cuddy is primarily a RF with a great arm and Willingham is a LF with a so-so arm, which automatically raises questions about what happens to the Twins' outfield since neither Span nor Revere can even get the ball from RF to 3B on the fly or so I assume. Fielding-wise, using UZR which is an advanced fielding stat that I couldn't begin to describe but is one of the more popular ones, both were equally shitty range-wise, which backs up what I've seen with my own two eyes. Add in Cuddy's ability to play a sub-par 1st, 2nd, or 3rd and the Twins do lose out slightly in the field with this swap, mostly due to the now lack of a true RF in my eyes.
Batting wise once again these two players are similar. Over the past 3 years, Cuddyer has a slightly higher average (.276 to .257), while Willingham has a slightly higher OBP (.360 to .341) and SLG (.479 to .465), which adds up to Willy's OPS+ of 125 trumping Cuddy's of 117, or about the difference between Troy Tulowitzki and Alex Gordon. Basically Willingham is probably a slightly better hitter, especially power and plate discipline-wise, while Cuddy might get a few more hits here and there. Plus Willingham has outhomered him each of the last two seasons, and although they have a virtually identical number of career HRs (Cuddy wins 141 to 132) Willingham has done it in about 1,300 fewer at-bats than Cuddyer (note: not a typo). So basically the Twins downgraded their defense a bit but upgraded offensively. Cool, you think, but what about the intangibles?
My answer to that question would be to punch you in the face if you were on this plane. Yes, Cuddyer filled a leadership void, but not because he's a great natural leader, but because SOMEBODY had to because Justin Morneau forgot where he was every 15 minutes and had to be reminded and every time Joe Mauer talked to anybody they fell asleep. I don't deny Cuddy provided a valuable service by becoming the face of the team by being in every single commerical, interview, event, and basically throwing himself in front of every camera he saw. I also don't deny that having a guy who is willing to play any position where he's needed, and can do so not embarrassingly, is a nice luxury to have. I also think both of those are very overrated on a baseball team. Not to mention him always chasing the press and forcing them to interview him kept the pressure off Mauer and Morneua, which at times is good but I would argue doing it to that extent during that kind of year is bad. I short, I will listen to your arguments that Cuddy is valuable in ways that have nothing to do with on-field performance, but I will also then dismiss this arguments with a roundhouse kick to our face and a condescending wave of my hand.
The Final piece of the puzzle is perhaps what pushes this from a pretty close to even swap that saves $4 million bucks to a great (well, good) decision by the Twins that saves $4 million bucks. Because Cuddyer was offered arbitration, that means that when Cuddy eventually signs with another team the Twins will receive both a first-round pick and a supplemental pick between rounds 1 and 2. That's good for any team, but for the Twins, whose list of prospects is getting thinner and thinner by the year, that's huge. That basically means two top-35 picks in the next draft, and even if Willingham was a notch below Cuddyer this swap might have been worth it. As it stands, it's the correct move. And if you're crying because Cuddy is gone, well, you're too dumb to care about anyway.
- Looks like this Chris Paul trade went down. Not to follow Bill Simmons' comments, but the Paul to Griffin combo is going to be pretty sick in the open court. I have no idea if Griffin is pick-n-rollable (and actually I don't know if Paul is either), but if they're both adept at the play look out. They also (reportedly) managed to do it without gutting their team. Paul, Billups (who they may regret adding at this point), Bledsoe, DeAndre Jordan, Griffin, and Caron Butler is absolutely a contender, especially if Bledsoe matures (and Jordan to a lesser extent). Not to mention they have decent vet rotation guys in Gomes and Foye (thanks Wolves), and a bunch of young guys (Willie Warren, Travis Leslie, Trey Thompkins). If one of those youngsters breaks out look the hell out. I grabbed some Clips to win the whole thing action at 15-1 last night when it started to look like they were close to getting Paul (heard it was 50-1 earlier in the day, dammit). Interested to see where that goes to.
And it's not like the Hornets screwed themselves either. Kaman is a serviceable center in a league with very few of them, Aminu sucks but has potential, and Eric Gordon is probably one of the best young players in the league (there's a Bill Simmons column on that but I'll be damned if I can find it now). Then there's the pick from the Wolves, which, no matter how optimistic you are, you have to admit is going to be in the lottery. Hopefully it's late, but even if it's late that doesn't mean it ends up late. Especially because the Clippers just traded it, upping the odds it ends up in the top 3 by at least triple. It's a waaaaaay better package than they were getting in the Lakers/Rockets swap so, at least for now, it kind of looks like the league knows what it's doing.
I'm sure there is plenty more to write about, but the plane is landing shortly and they're saying something about turning stuff off, so I must go. Later.
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