Monday Musings

Why are weekends at the cabin always so exhausting?  Seriously, I mostly just fished and drank, yet when I got home last night I was way too tired to even think of putting words down on a screen that about 13 people will probably read and are mostly stupid anyway.  I suppose it's probably the drinking.  Anyway, that's why there was no week in review post.  I'll try to make it up to you by posting things right now instead.

-  Might as well start with the obvious: the Twins are just ridiculous.  Seven straight wins, 14-2 in their last 16, and now they're suddenly just 8 games out of first and in an actual position where the idea of them winning the division is no longer out of the question.  And they're doing it with nobody.  Kubel's on the DL.  Morneau is on the DL.  Thome is on the DL.  Span is on the DL.  Mauer just came off along with Nishioka.  Valencia is banged up.  Delmon Young is retarded.  It's just amazing.  I can't stand Gardy but maybe there's something to this "manager of the year" stuff.

Honestly I can't wrap my head around it.  The team is being carried by Alexi Casilla and a bunch of other AAAA-types.  Casilla is hitting .348 with 7 doubles over the last four weeks and even added a home run (which I thought had to have been a mis-speak when I heard it on the radio) over the weekend.  Matt Tolbert has been a competent major league hitter.  Danny Valencia is showing power.  Cuddy is almost impossible to get out.  Ben Revere has been a joy to watch, and even toothpick hitters like Jason Repko, Rene Tosoni, Hughesy, and those two dingleberry catchers are coming up with big hits.  I completely understand why the White Sox and Ozzie are so terrified of the Twins.  No matter how good the pitching has been (and it's been very, very good lately) a team regularly trotting out a lineup of Revere/Casilla/whoever is healthy and can hit/Cuddyer/Valencia/Hughes/Dinkleman/Butera/Tolbert should lose, approximately, 90% of their games.  Instead the Twins have gotten hot.  So stupid.  Honest to god they're my favorite team but even I almost hate them for their ability to somehow constantly pull this shit off.  But I don't.  Go Twins.  I'm starting to think we might even get to watch them get swept by the Yankees in the playoffs again.

-  Couple quick U.S. Open notes, one good and one bad.  First, how impressive was Rory McIlroy's win? (and no, I didn't have any money down on him to win).  I really wish I would have had a chance to watch more of his play over the weekend, but unfortunately the cabin only gets channel 4, but man everything sounded good.  He fired out with a 65 in the opener to take the lead, then followed that up with a 66 to give him the all-time best score to par through 36 holes at -11.  Saturday he shot 68 and Sunday 69, which also gave him the all-time record for 54 and 72 holes, and an 8-shot US Open win (over Jason Day, who, incidentally, is going to win the PGA this year).

Now, clearly that's an incredibly stellar performance by McIlroy, either the most impressive or second most impressive major win every (along with Tiger's Masters), but I do think we need to ease back on the "where will McIlroy rank when it's all said and done" talk.  It's still just one major.  I know, it's very exciting that he's just 22 and has been on a roll that's had him in contention in every major lately but "the next Tiger Woods"?  Really, Charch?  I like McIlroy.  Hell, he's one of my favorite golfers, but to get even halfway to Woods' major total - if he doesn't add to it - he'll need to win six more.  If you had to lay money on him being more likely to win 0 more or 6 more in his career, which side would you take?

The 6 right, but it's a toughy.  That's not the next Tiger.  There probably isn't going to be one, so relax, nerd.

Secondly, I've gotten a couple of comments from people who read this shitty blog about how I always pick Hunter Mahan to win the U.S. Open, and it's true - I do.  The reason is because his career was looking like it was built to win a US Open.  His first three times playing in it, not counting 2003 - his rookie year, he finished 13th-18th-6th.  When early in the 2010 season he broke through with his first win since 2007 at the Phoenix Open vs. a pretty good field, everything looked set for him to win his first major at the US Open at Pebble.  So what's he do?  Shoots 78-74 and misses the cut.  I was heartbroken.

Then comes this year.  He's been on fire:  Seven top 10s this year, just one missed cut, and a run of 16th-6th-10th-13th in his last four starts which included the Players and the Memorial.  Once again, looking like a good bet to win the U.S. Open.  So what's he do?   Fires a 74-73 and misses the cut again.  Honest to god, this guy has gone from looking like an inevitable US Open winner to a complete US Open choker and I hate him like Super Sioux Fan hates delicious animals. 

-  Dustin Ackley.  Look out folks, the starting second baseman for the American League All-Star Team for the next 12 years just arrived.  Think Chase Utley without the chicken legs or weinerness.  Guy can just flat out rake.  As a freshman at North Carolina in 2007 he became just the fifth player in Tar Heel history to bat .400 for a season - and then went and did it again the next two years as well before being drafted #2 by Seattle.  After a good 2-year run in the minors that included winning the MVP of the Arizona Fall League, Ackely made his Mariner debut over the weekend and collected his first major league hit, first major league triple, and first major league home run.  He is going to be a star (and I think I'm officially in love with the Mariners right side of the infield).  If you can, pick him up in your fantasy league and thank me later.  Of course, if you're in my league you can't because I already have him.  Neener neener neener.

-  So I've been hearing lately that the Timberwolves might be considering trading the #2 pick now that Cleveland officially announced they were taking Kyrie Irving #1, which was frankly the most obvious thing in the world since that dude from Twilight announcing he's gay.  The reason they are looking at trading the pick:  Derrick Williams is the obvious pick and they have too many forwards?  What.  the.  fuck.  You won 17 games all of last season and now you're turning down best player available because of Michael Beasley and Wesley Johnson?  I am not 100% against trading the pick or anything, but you better be getting a big haul - like 2 players and a top 10 pick, and that is exactly what I don't trust David Kahn to do.  I suppose you never know what to expect from a team that once drafted four PGs in the same draft, but keep in mind this information comes from Paul Charchian so I'd say there's about a 20% chance it's true and a 98% chance it's douchey.

-  Speaking of the draft, it looks like not only is Jimmer Fredette going to be a lottery pick but there are a handful of teams actively trying to trade up to get him.  Again - what.  the.  fuck.  Is the power of a white boy on the American wallet really that strong?  The guy can score and is like a poor man's The Professor with the ball - I get it.  But as I said after the NCAA Tournament, "Freaking amazing when he has the ball, right?  Amazing shooter with unlimited range and a hair-trigger release, ability to get by a defender off the dribble and get into the lane, an excellent eye to find open teammates for easy hoops, and just amazing body control.  Really an impressive player with the ball.  But did you happen to notice him when he doesn't have the ball?  I've never seen a lazier god damn player in my life.  He does one of three things if he doesn't have the ball:

1. Stand there
2. Clap his hands and call for the ball.
3. Run directly at his teammate with the ball and clap his hands while calling for the ball

That's it.  That's the entire repertoire.  My favorite though is any time he passes the ball and it doesn't directly lead to a shot for this teammate he immediately follows his own pass, naturally while clapping and calling for the ball.  There's a reason nobody on this team every gets an assist other than Jimmer, and that's because he either shoots, creates a shot for somebody else, or immediately demands the ball back.  Honestly I was pretty unimpressed, and I watched all four of his games in this tournament and they were all the same.  Add in a level of defense that would make Blake Hoffarber turn red with embarrassment and he might be the most overrated player since Adam Morrison.  If this guys wins National Player of the Year it'll be a travesty and, frankly, should probably spark off some race riots.  But that's pretty much my answer for everything."

And I stand by that.  Especially the race riot part.

-  Wait.  The NBA Draft is on Thursday?  Holy shit.  I got a lot of work to do.  And I have stupid softball that night.  DAMMIT..  I should just quit.

-  Do you know who's closing for the Rays this year?  Guess.  Give up?  It's Kyle freaking Farnsworth.  Kyle Farnsworth.  One one hand you could say he's been a quality set-up man who hasn't been given much of a shot at closing.  On the other, more accurate, hand you could say he's inconsistent as hell and his career as a set-up man has as many god awful years as decent ones.  I don't even care that he's been lights out this year there's almost no way this is going to continue.  I'd say he's going to cost them a playoff spot, but my sexy boyfriend Evan Longoria is helping to do that too.  I don't know, man, we're still going steady but with Justin Smoak and Dustin Ackley breathing down his neck and old flame Cole Hamels back in the picture I'm just not sure how much longer we'll last. I'm tempted man, tempted.  It's like co-ed softball, but with dudes.  Hot dudes.

-  Did you know the Marlins have lost like 38 straight games?  That may seem pretty irrelevant to you, but some of us took the Marlins to win over 81.5 games this year and just a few short weeks ago when they were 29-19 we were practically counting our money.  Now they're 32-41 and I'm scrambling to figure out how to pay our next mortgage bill.  Oh well.  There's always winning the lottery.  Also food stamps.  THANK YOU OBAMA!

-  Finally, it seems like a lot of people are kind of bored by this but it's the first "serious" sports movie that hasn't made me roll my eyes since He Got Game and the first sports movie period since Varsity Blues that I'm actually interested in so fuck you, Chris N.  Sports, nerd stats, and the hottest man alive (and Brad Pitt, too)?  I'm all in.  Which, since I have two kids and zero free-time, means I'll probably rent it 3 weeks after it's out on DVD.  Hooray for my stupid life.

Time for Some Golf

Do you know what tomorrow is?  It's the start of the PGA Season, and I'm fired up.  But not nearly as fired up as our golf writer here at DWG, Grandslam, who voluntarily wrote up a season preview without even being asked.  How do I have a golf writer and not a hockey writer, you ask?  Because hockey is super gay!

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It’s the most wonderful time of the year again, and NO, I’m not talking about the holidays.  The start of the 2011 PGA Tour season is right around the corner.  

The 2010 season was a season that will soon not be forgotten due to the craziness of certain events.  There are certain things we can count on every year like bad weather at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, Phil contending at Augusta, and John Daly having a mental breakdown on the golf course.  In 2010 there was as much shock value in certain events as there would be for a Minnesota Timberwolves victory.  Other than Phil’s victory at The Masters, who would have correctly picked the other three major winners in McDowell,  Oosthuizen, and Kaymer?  Who could forget the collapse of Dustin Johnson in the final round of the U.S. Open?  More importantly, who can forget what happened to Dustin Johnson on the 72^nd hole at the PGA Championship.  Matt Kuchar was this year’s leading money winner, really?  How about team USA’s near improbable comeback at the Ryder Cup?  

The 2010 PGA Tour season was full of headlines with maybe the story of the year being Tiger Woods.  No majors, not a single worldwide victory, MC’s and WD’s.  Nobody could have imagined that when Tiger announced he would return at Augusta that we would see the season we did from the once invisible, FORMER  #1 player in the world. 

We can only hope that the 2011 PGA Tour season will be as entertaining and unpredictable as the year before.  I am extremely excited for the majors this year if they are anything like last year.  Just a few years ago when the question of, who’s the best player to not win a major came up, the list of those players were short.  In 2011, with the year Tiger had in 2010 and the emergence of the “young guns”, that list may be as large as ever with the likes of….

·        Dustin Johnson

·        Rickie Fowler (0 PGA Tour wins)

·        Paul Casey

·        Ian Poulter

·        Nick Watney

·        Steve Stricker

·        Hunter Mahan

·        Luke Donald

This is just a few of the players that could be on the unofficial list, but let’s not forget about the #1 player in the world, Lee Westwood. 

Last year, we had a huge surprise with the season that Matt Kuchar had leading the PGA Tour in earnings as well as leading the tour in scoring average.  A story like this is extremely hard to ever project, however I am going to give you two guys that could be this year’s Matt Kuchar.  Jason Day and Jeff Overton are two guys that I could see having huge years.  Jason Day got his first career PGA Tour win last year and finished 8^th in the Fed Ex Cup, while Overton, although still without a victory had a hand full of runner-up finishes as well as being a key contributor for Team USA in the Ryder Cup.

Last year we had a guy in the name of Louis Oosthuizen who shocked nearly everyone in the golf world with his win at the British Open.  This year’s Louis Oosthuizen is another guy that many have not heard of, and that’s the up and coming South African Charl Schwartzel who will win his first major this year. 

I’m going to give you two guys to watch for in the 2011 season, one from the PGA Tour and the other from the European Tour.  The man on the PGA Tour you need to keep your eye out for is Jamie Lovemark.  Lovemark was a college standout at USC and dominated the Nationwide Tour last becoming the youngest player to ever finish #1 on that tour’s money list.  Lovemark nearly won in his first month as a pro, only to lose in a playoff.  I look for big things out of this rookie this year.  

The player to watch out for on the European Tour is player that almost no one has heard of and his name is Matteo Manassero.   Some may recognize the name as Manassero is the youngest player to even make the cut in The Masters.  However the reason you need to keep an eye out for this kid is the fact that he got his first career win at the age of 17 last fall, he won’t even turn 18 until later next spring.  We probably won’t see much of Manassero in the states next year, but in time we will see him in all the big events. 

Finally my predictions for the 2011 PGA Tour season are as follows….

·        Rookie of the Year, Jamie Lovemark

·        Comeback player of the year, Tiger Woods (how could it not be?)

·        Surprise player of the year, David Duval, he will be back in the winner’s circle in 2011

·        Player of the year, Rory McIlroy

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I I I can honestly say I've never heard of Jamie Lovemark.  But if Grandslam likes him, he's certain to suck.

Mauer for MVP?

Before I get to "Can Joe Mauer win the MVP?" how crazy was the end of the PGA? Going into today's final round, three players have a realistic chance at winning: Tiger Woods at -8, Padraig Harrington at -6, and Y.E. Yang at -6, with a whole bunch of other people who would need an amazing day to get into the conversation. Well, nobody even bothered to break 70, Harrington shot a +6 to drop completely out of contention, and Yang and Tiger went head-to-head (they were playing partners today) and Tiger is the one who blinked.

After Yang's chip in for Eagle at 14 to give him a 1 shot lead, Tiger had plenty of chances to at least make a run at tying it up, but coughed them up. He flubbed a 5-Wood trying to get home in two at the par-5 fifteenth, then missed the green on all three closing holes. Yang even tried to help him out by bogeying seventeen, but Tiger went ahead and bogied as well. Just an incredible thing. I won't quite jump on the "Tiger has lost his mystique" bandwagon, but it was pretty mind blowing watching the best, most intense, nerves-of-steel competitor I've ever seen (outside of Scott Norwood, of course) choke away the championship, playing at a similar level and making the same mistakes he's watched his Sunday playing partners make time after time. I'm still in a little bit of shock.

I also want to mention that Rory McIroy has the absolute hottest girlfriend on the PGA Tour. Just sick hot. Anyway, back to the question, "Can Joe Mauer win the MVP award on a losing team?"

Now, it can be done and has been before. Maybe most famously by the Hawk, Andre Dawson, who won in 1987 with the Cubs, putting up a line of .287/.328/.568 with 49 home runs (in an era when nobody hit that many) and 137 rbi for a team that finished 76-85 and dead last in the division, 18.5 games out of first. Of course, Jack Clark probably should have won the MVP that year, and he played for a division winner, so the writers don't always follow any kind of recognizable logic. That will actually play in Mauer's favor - everybody likes him. Personal bias doesn't seem to affect baseball MVP voting as much as other sports (see Bonds with 7 MVPs and Jeff Kent actually won one), but it certainly won't hurt Golden Joe.

Of course, in recent years the trend has been to only give the MVP award to someone on a division winner, with the asinine argument that the award should go to the most valuable player and not the best player and that a great player on a bad team can't be valuable, so that doesn't help since this Twins squad might be the worst baseball team in the league since the Twins of 1999. I took a look at the AL MVP winners going back to 1990, and the team's the winners played on won their division 15 times, with another two wild card winners. That mean's there were two AL MVPs on teams that didn't win their division; 1991 Cal Ripken, and 2002 Alex Rodriguez.

Ripken's Orioles were 67-95, and finished 24 games out of first place. Ripken definitely deserved the award that year, as he was clearly the best player in the league. He put up .323/.374/.566, with 34 homers and 116 rbi, finishing in the top five in pretty much every category. Frank Thomas could make an argument, with a better OBP and OPS, but Ripken has him in every other category.

A-Rod's win in 2003 isn't quite as clear cut. He definitely had an outstanding year, hitting for .298/.396/.600 with 47 homers and 118 rbi for the 71-91 Rangers, while Carlos Delgado of the 86-76 Blue Jays hit .302/.426/.593 with 42 and 145. I have no idea why A-Rod won this one, but it goes to show that a player can win the MVP while playing for a losing team, even if he isn't the best player in the league that season (as 2 of the 3 I just looked at weren't).

Of course, it can go the other way too. You just have to look back at 2006, when David Ortiz should have won the award going away, but ended up finishing third behind Morneau and Derek Jeter, simply because the Red Sox missed the playoffs. A similar thing happened in 2004, too, this time to Manny Ramirez. His team didn't win the division (although they did win the Wild Card) and he lost MVP to Vlad Guerrero despite having superior numbers. And that seems to be the way the major sports are trending to go with their MVP awards in the past 10 years, but that A-Rod outlier means you can't rule it out just yet.

Is Mauer's season good enough to win? Right now, before today's game where once again I got to watch a Twins' starter completely implode and not bother to get out of the third, he is hitting .378/.446/.630. He also has 22 home runs, and 73 rbi through May, June, July, and almost exactly half of August. If we roughly project those out, we can reasonably expect Mauer to finish with 31 homers and 104 rbi. He is currently leading the league in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging (and obviously OPS) - simply incredible, and maybe the best season a catcher has ever had.

.378 would be the highest batting average ever by a catcher (since Lave Cross's .394 in 1894). His .446 OBP would be the highest by a catcher since Mickey Cochrane's .452 in 1935, and the third best since 1900. Even his .630 slugging, long considered a weak point of his game, would rank third-best by a catcher ever, behind just 2003 Javy Lopez and 1997 Mike Piazza. All this leads up to an OPS of 1.076 - the best number a catcher has ever put up.

Even his home runs are nothing to dismiss, as if he hits 31 it would be the 31st most in a season by a catcher, and he would become just the 26th catcher to hit 30 in a season. And I'm tired of manually counting stuff up, but those 104 rbi would rank similarly in the history of catchers.

The only season that comes close is Mike Piazza's 1997, universally recognized as the best hitting season a catcher has ever had. That year Piazza hit .362/.431/.638 with 40 homers and 124 rbi, and finished second in the league in both OPS and MVP voting to Larry Walker. When you add in that Piazza had a noodle-arm, and Mauer is regarded as excellent defensively (not to mention his creepily squeaky-clean off the field reputation) there is little doubt Mauer is currently having the greatest season for a catcher in the history of baseball.

We've shown it's tough to win on a losing team, although it can be done, but we've also shown that Mauer is making history. He will have some obstacles, especially in that his three top rivals for the award either play in the cities that all media love (Youkilis and Texeira) or play on his own team and might steal votes (Morneau) but make no mistake, we are absolutely watching one of the most incredible seasons anyone has put together, and that should be enough for him to win.

All-Star Tuesday Talkings (British Open Preview)

Yep, it's all star Tuesday so I'm writing, but I don't plan to write a single thing about the All-Star game because it's just so stupid. Let me get this straight, this game counts for something pretty important now, but the starters are still voted in by idiotic fans? And they take rosters of 33 freaking players on each team, and managers are bound by some stupid unwritten rule to try to play everybody? And you can't let any pitcher go more than one or two innings because if Roy Halladay hurts his arm in his third inning of work somehow every one will be mad at you even though he routinely goes nine innings every fifth day? It's like the collective league is Regina George and the manager is Gretchen Weiners.

I just don't get how something so far removed from real baseball can give such an advantage to a team in the quest to win the World Series. Seriously, if this rule was in place in '87 and '91 and the NL won the all-star game, we'd be sitting wondering if the Twins will ever win a World Series. I mean, I'm not exactly a huge fan of the random element they used to have but it's better than this - and better than giving home field advantage to the league that has a better record in interleague play, which I've also heard bandied about. That's also idiotic.

It's really simple. Home field advantage goes to the team with the better regular season record. That's how all the other leagues do it. Why? Because it makes a lot more sense to reward a team for a great 162-game season than it does to reward a team whose league won a stupid exhibition. And if you insist on keeping that dumb rule, then Gretchen Weiners has to stick up to Regina like that time she wore sweat pants to the lunch table. Throw Halladay three innings. Then throw Greinke three. Then go through the closers and end with Rivera. Bam, game. But they won't. It'll be one inning, one inning, one inning, and eventually either Tim Wakefield or Andrew Bailey will be in and it'll be tee-off time for the NL. Stupid.

What makes it even worse is that I actually get a little bit pumped up when they do all the fanfare before the game. They always give it a nice historical perspective, whether it's tonight's little St. Louis baseball mini-history or like the year they brought out Ted Williams and Willie Mays, it's a very nice touch and I enjoy it. Then the game starts and it's a big joke. Let's just move on to something else.

- I'm mainly writing tonight to give my half-assed British Open preview, much like my half-assed Masters and US Open previews, which didn't quite get the winners right. All that really means is that I am due. In the same tradition, I will give you my top ten (after Tiger) picks to win.

1. Steve Stricker. It's weird to pick a noted non-closer to win an event like the British, but it all seems to be in place for Stricker. Two wins in his last four events, including a win last week, and recent success at the Open, finishing 8th and 7th the last two years. No reason he shouldn't be right there at the end.

2. Ian Poulter. It's almost a certainty that Ian Poulter will be winning a major at some point, probably while wearing pink pants, and it makes a lot of sense that it could be this one. Poulter is a very solid Open player, topping off with a second place finish last year at Royal Birkdale, has been very solid in the other majors (31st, 20th, and 18th) and is having a good year.

3. Lee Westwood. Westwood isn't super, duper great at the Open, but he does have two top tens in his career and has made the cut the last three years, so he's not horrible either. He's familiar with links style golf, being a communist and all, and is getting hot at the right time, with a tie for 8th last week in the Scottish Open coming on the heels of a runner-up finish in the French Open.

4. Hunter Mahan. This guy is quietly playing some of the best golf of anybody right now, but at the same time is a bit under the radar since he hasn't actually picked up a victory. He has top 10s in his last three starts, has made the cut in every event he has played this season, and has top tens in both of this year's majors. He did miss the cut last year at the Open, which gives me slight pause, but last year was a rough one for him, and not only has he found his game again but two years ago when he was playing well he pulled a sixth place finish at Carnoustie.

5. Sergio Garcia. Usually this sexy son of a bitch would be my #1 pick after Tiger, but a slow and disappointing year so far has really left me scratching my head. Still, the spaniard is a wizard when it comes to the British Open, with six top 10s in his last eight attempts and he does seem to be getting his game figured out, notching a tie for tenth at the US Open and has played better across the pond than here in the States.

6. Henrik Stenson. This guy is another one who it feels like is just waiting to win a major, and could be set up to do it this week. He already won this year at the "fifth major", the Players Championship at Sawgrass, and has been in contention at pretty much every major recently, with three top tens in the last four majors. He's a cool customer, since like most Swedes he has no soul, so if he's in contention coming down the stretch he isn't likely to Van de Velde it up.

7. Rory McIlroy. It's weird to pick a kid this young to be a top contender at the Open, but he's just tough. This year his four toughest events have resulted in a Quarterfinal finish at the Match Play, a 20th place finish at both the WGC-CA and the Masters, and a tie for tenth at the US Open - clearly he's not intimidated. Add in the fact that he is ripping it up on the European Tour (fifth in the Race to Dubai), and it wouldn't surprise me to see him right in the thick of it on Sunday.

8. Jim Furyk. Boring? Predictable? How about we go with steady instead. Top 11 in five of his last six tournaments, made the cut in fourteen of his last fifteen majors, and two top fives in his last three Opens, with a tie for twelfth in the third. He did miss five straight cuts at the British from 2001-2005, which shows me that this kind of golf can swallow him up at times and keeps me from putting him any higher on my list, but I expect him to hang around and at least make a little noise.

9. Paul Casey. I was looking back at my Masters and US Open previews, and I picked this clown first after Tiger and second after Tiger and Furyk, and he rewarded me with a T-20 and a missed cut, but I still can't drop him all the way, especially at the British where he finished seventh last year. He absolutely dominated the Euro Tour early, and still leads the Race to Dubai, but has faded in recent weeks. I expect being back in Europe will rejuvenate him.

10. Justin Leonard. This is a straight up hunch pick, which I can't really justify. He's had success at the British, but his win and his runner-up were both in the 1990s. Since then he's missed the cut as much as he's finished top twenty (three each) and he doesn't come in particularly hot, with two missed cuts in his last three tournaments. But I'm feelin' it!

And that's it. Some notable names are missing. Geoff Ogilvy, Zach Johnson, and Luke Donald are both garbage at the Open. Paddy is the two-time depending champion, but he's missed the cut in four of his last five events, and his game is just not in the right shape here again. I don't think Anthony Kim is ready just yet, and the wunderkind of the early season, Nick Watney, has fallen back to earth. Cink is still gay, and Els and Goosen are too far gone. One sleeper I've seen mentioned somewhere is Martin Kaymer, a commie who comes in hot, having won the last two Euro Tour events. Don't believe it. He doesn't have that kind of game.

- Finally, hold on to your butts people, the Sci Fi channel is having the marathon of all marathons on Saturday, July 25th, and I can't wait. Unfortunately, the Egyptian is getting married that day and I am an usher, so I can't exactly watch live, but the Tivo will be a crankin'. Check out the schedule:

8am - Kraken: Tentacles of the Deep
10am - Croc
Noon - Super Gator
2pm - Lake Placid 2
4pm - Spring Break Shark Attack (third best shark movie ever)
6pm - Deep Blue Sea
8pm - Malibu Shark Attack (World Premiere!)
10pm - Eye of the Beast (Dawson in a Squid movie)

I'm tivo'ing everything on that list except for Lake Placid 2 and Deep Blue Sea, which are super lame. Expect an influx of Live Movie Blogs in the coming weeks, as long as I can get Mrs. W to watch a few of these.

Also, Sci Fi renamed itself SyFy for some unfathomable reason. Can anyone explain this one? Cutesy for the sake of cutesy? I really hope somebody gets fired for this. This is even worse than the time Itchy ripped out Scratchy's spine and played it like a xylophone, but got two different notes from hitting the same rib.

That's it for now. I would expect to see a more indepth preview from Faldo tomorrow some time, and if we're really lucky maybe Super Sioux Fan will send in a new post.

The Masters Preview

Since we seem to lose all our golf guys (ok, maybe a golf post every week was a little excessive) I'm going to have to take the reins here for a preview of The Masters, which begins tomorrow. Don't worry, there will be plenty of Twins talk to come.





The Favorite: Tiger Woods. Obviously. Tiger would almost certainly have been the favorite no matter what happened his last time out, but winning at Bay Hill two weeks ago tells the world know that he is all the way back. If you had to choose between Tiger and the Field, who would you pick? The field, obviously, but you'd at least have to think about it.

The Top 10 Contenders:

1. Paul Casey. Yes, I consider Casey your best bet to knock off Tiger this week. He's only played in the US three times this year, but those include a win at the Shell last week and a runner up finish in the Match Play Championship. Add in a 10th and 11th at the last two Masters, and a made cut in eight straight majors, and I think he's the guy to watch out for.

2. Zach Johnson. He won here two years ago, but then followed that up with a pretty mediocre 2008. It looks like the Hangover has abated, with Joaquin Phoenix's double having a pretty nice 2009, with a win at the Sony Open and five top 17s on the year.

3. Retief Goosen. Probably the best golfer at the Masters to never win the tournament, Goosen has finished in the top 3 here four times, and his career finishes since 2002 are very impressive: 2, 13, 13, 3, 3, 2, 17. He seemed to be on the downslope of his career last year, but has seen a resurgence this season with a win already at the Transitions Championship and another top 3 on the resume. This could be the year he finally gets his green jacket.

4. Phil Mickelson. Can't put Lefty any lower than this, and it was a tough call putting him even this low. Mickelson is incredibly uneven at times, but there's no doubting his ability when he's on. He also loves this tournament, with two wins and a total of eleven top 10s in 15 tries as a pro. If that's not enough, he's already got two wins this year, including a WGC event. I'm starting to wonder why I put him fourth.

5. Padraig Harrington. Since Paddy won his second straight Major at the PGA last year, he had been in coast mode, missing the cut in the next two tournaments and not finishing in the top 50 until March this year. The good news for Paddy fans is that he seems to be rounding into shape, with a 20th, 11th, and 26th in his last three. With the last two majors under his belt, and a 7th and 5th in his last two trips to Augusta, Harrington might get one step closer to the Paddy Slam.

6. Geoff Ogilvy. Ogilvy, despite a bit of a final round collapse last week, usually thrives in big tournaments, with four of his six career wins being either Majors (1) or WGC Events (3). He's also playing well right now, with two of those six career wins coming this season already. He's never seriously contended at Augusta (career best T-16th), but he's also never missed the cut here.

7. Mike Weir. Do you remember that Weir won here in 2003? Me neither. I always forget that and then realize it right before the tournament, and then realize again that Weir is pretty damn good at Augusta, with four top 20s in five tries since he won. He's also playing solid golf so far this season, with zero missed cuts and two top 3 finishes.

8. Nick Watney. I'm as surprised as you are to see this kid on the list, but he's burst on the scene in a big way this year, and has probably been the most consistent golfer so far this year. Watney has a win at the Buick and two other top 5 finishes. In fact, Watney has finished in the top 25 in seven of his eight tournaments this year. This is his second trip to Augusta, and he proved last year that he can handle it, finishing in a tie for 11th place. Stranger things have happened.

9. Robert Karlsson. I didn't know this until I was looking up his majors record on Wikipedia, but apparently he has two nicknames: "Ivan Drago" and "The Scientist." How awesome is that? If you need more, Karlsson finished in the top 10 in three of the four majors last year, including 8th at the Masters, finished 20th in the other Major, and won the European Order of Merit (the commie Player of the Year). He's also looking good, coming into the tournament with a T-14 finish last week.

10. Brandt Snedeker. He's not exactly having the best year, with as many missed cuts as made so far, but I have a hunch about the 2007 Rookie of the Year, particularly after he finished 17th his last time out at the Arnie Palmer. Snedeker generally plays well in Majors that aren't the British Open, with two top tens last year including a T-3 at Augusta.


10 "Contenders" Who Have No Shot:

1. Sergio Garcia. This pains me. If you pay attention to the Golf posts I make round here, you know I love the Sergio, but it's not his year, at least not at the Masters. The sexy Spaniard hasn't done much this year, with just one finish in the top 30, and the Masters is not where he's going to turn it around, with three missed cuts in his last four attempts here.

2. Vijay Singh. One of the more obvious "big" names to put on the list, the big Fiji has really struggled this year coming off knee surgery in January. Since his return, he has missed three cuts and finished 53rd and 59th. The Masters is generally not a place where players return to form, and Singh's streak of 10 straight top 25 finishes here is in jeopardy.

3. Luke Donald. As long as we're talking injuries, let's talk Donald's wrist. Luke had wrist surgery and missed the second half of the season last year, and then had to withdraw from the Match Play Event due to wrist trouble again. He's played in two tournaments since then, and managed a top 20 at the WGC, but comes in with a MC at the Houston Open. He also missed the cut at Augusta last year.

4. Adam Scott. Here's another one who is trying to return from an injury, and not at all succeeding. Scott injured himself surfing last December (note: Surfing is stupid. You look like a seal from below. Sharks eat seals. Ergo, if you surf, sharks will eat you) and hasn't hit his stride in his return, coming into the Masters on the heels of missed cuts in his last two events. Considering he's never finished better than 25th here since 2003, I don't see this being his big return event.

5. Jim Furyk. I never thought there would be a tournament where I'd consider Furyk to not be a factor, but since a 3rd place finish at the last WGC event, he's played really poorly, finishing 52nd and missing the cut in his last two times out. In fact, in the last six rounds he's played he's only broken 70 once, and has carded two separate rounds of 78. Add in that he hasn't really contended at Augusta since 2003, and I don't think this is Jimmy's week.

6. Ernie Els. Unlike Goosen, who seems to have pulled himself out of a career decline, the same can't really be said for Els, who has won only once since 2004. It's not that he's playing terrible golf, but he just doesn't really seem to ever be a serious threat to win anymore, much less at a major. Particularly Augusta, considering he's missed the cut the past two years.

7. Anthony Kim. Remember when Kim was the next big thing? He was one of the hottest golfers last season, picking up two wins and finishing fourth in the Fed Ex Cup Playoffs. He started out hot again this year, with a second place finish in the first tournament of the year, but has really cooled since then with nary a top 25 finish to his name. Add in that this is his first trip to Augusta, and I'm not seeing it.

8. Stewart Cink. People like Cink. People like blood sausage, too. People are morons. I can't stand this guy. Sure, he finished 3rd last year at Augusta, but he's sucked all year, with a 24th place finish his best, has only won once since 2004, and generally chokes anytime he's in contention for anything except for biggest homo on the tour. Want more? He named his two sons Connor and Reagan, and has a twitter account or page or whatever it is. H-O-M-O.

9. Steve Stricker. Speaking of choking when the pressure is on, holy cow has Stricker had his hands around his throat this year. On paper, his three top fives already this year look great, but consider that he had the lead at one point in all three of those tournaments and gave it back. Google "Steve Stricker chokes" and you'll see a ton of hits. Sound like a guy who can handle the pressure of the final round of the Masters? Add in that he's missed the cut here in five of his eight tries, including his last three attempts, and you can rule him out.

10. Kenny Perry. The Dan Akroyd clone may have had a good year last year, but he did it playing only one round in a major: he didn't qualify for the Masters or the US Open (and didn't attempt to), declined to play in the British, and got hurt after one round at the PGA. Perry is playing well this year (four top-10s already) but his lack of success at Augusta (five missed cuts in 8 tries), unfamiliarity with the course and tournament (hasn't played in the Masters since 2005), and overall lack of Major experience (only played five rounds total in the last 8 majors) tell me to stay away.


THE WILDCARD:

- Rory McIlroy. If you pay attention to golf, you know who this is. If you don't, he's the next young challenger to Tiger Woods, or at least is being portrayed that way. He's a 19-year old kid from Northern Ireland, and has already risen to the #17 ranked golfer in the world rankings. He already won in Dubai earlier this year, and finished 5th at the Accenture Match Play to go along with three other top 20s in the states. Simply put, he's young, he's untested in a Major, and by all rights shouldn't be in contention. However he's played well this year under pressure, seems completely unflappable and in control at all times, and is supremely talented. Really, I have no idea how to place him. I had him in both the Top Contenders and Players With No Chance categories at different points when I was thinking about this. Nothing would shock me.


There you have it. As a reward, here's a fun little picture of Natalie Gulbis: