NFL Predictions, 2009

You asked, and thus you shall recieve.  NFL predictions, team-by-team.  As always, you can expect this to be incredibly accurate.

AFC EAST

1.  Patriots.  Brady's back, and I'm pretty sure he's all the way back, which means big seasons for him, Moss, and Welker.  The defense might be an issue this season, and the RB situation is confusing (way to go Maroney) but will probably end up with three or four guys splitting the yards and TDs, but they're certainly good enough to win the division and maybe the whole thing.

2.  Dolphins.  The preeminant Wildcat running team adds Pat White, perhaps the best dual threat QB in college football since Major Harris or Rickey Foggie?  This is going to be spectacular, whether for good or ill.  I'm betting good, and wouldn't be shocked to see the Dolphins make the playoffs and White become responsible for getting Teebo drafted in round 1 rather than round 3.

3.  Jets.  Mark Sanchez will be a good QB.  Mark Sanchez will not be a good QB this year.  Thomas Jones is 100 years old.

4.  Bills.  See, the thing is, you need a quarterback to win.  Trent Edwards is not a real quarterback.  Even worse is that the trade of Jason Peter means the Bills will have five brand new starters on the O-Line this year, and they didn't exactly sign a gang of Steve Hutchinsons.  How long do you think T.O. is going to stay well-behaved in this situation?  Honestly, this might be the most likely team to go 0-16 out of the whole bunch.

AFC NORTH

1.  Steelers.  They make almost no changes, and why should they?  The only position I see them falling off in is at RB, where Willie Parker is about to fall off a cliff into Shaun Alexander-land, they have a high quality replacement waiting in the wings in Rashard Mendenhall. 

2.  Bengals.   This is the team that I think will surprise.  Carson is back, and coming with him will be Ochocinco who is "revitalized" which really just means he's a bitchy little whiner who wouldn't try last year because they sucked and now everyone thinks they will be good again so he will be good again - and I agree.  Plus the defense isn't half bad, actually, at least not as bad as you think.  Playoffs, baby.  Believe.

3.  Ravens.  Mark Clayton still hasn't developed and Derrick Mason is hanging around, but Ray Rice should develop into a star this year.  What happened to McGahee anyway?

4.  Browns.  Ok, maybe this is the team with the best chance to go 0-16, unless Brady Quinn has a magic arm.  My sources say no.  Expect James Davis to take Jamal's job by week 8.

AFC SOUTH

1.  Colts.  Dropping Marvin Harrison is actually going to help the team, trying to shoehorn an old, broken down murderer into game plans hurt both Reggie Wayne and Anthony Gonzalez.  Need proof?  In the game Marvin missed last season, Peyton Manning threw for 364 yards and 3 TDs, completing 29 of 34 pass attempts.  After 2004 it's hard to predict Peyton to "have his best year" ever again, but this could be the season.

2.  Texans.  Is this finally the year?  It will be as long as Schaub stays healthy.  These guys are pretty much solid all around, with the best receiver in football in Andre Johnson and a good offense and defense all the way around.  If Matty can play all 16, they'll make the playoffs for the first time.

3.  Titans.  Once again, I refuse to believe in Tennessee.  Collins isn't very good and has nobody to throw to, and when he gets hurt and/or falls off the wagon Vince Young is worse than T-Jax.  LenDale White lost weight which means he's now slow and has no power instead of being slow with power, and Chris Johnson might be the most overrated running back in the league.  The defense is good though.

4.  Jags.  Tough to put them fourth, but this is a very good division this year.  MJD was going to be a star this year, but now he's banged up and will probably suck.  Way to pick him in the top 3, everybody in America.

AFC WEST

1.  Chargers.  The demise of Ladainian Tomlinson has been greatly exaggerated.  He was hampered big time by injuries last season, and still managed to put up decent numbers.  This year Sproles should cut into his touches a bit, but assuming he's healthy he should return to an elite level in a big way.  Plus, this division is absolute garbage after San Diego and they should win it without any problem.

2.  Chiefs.  Second place my default, there isn't a single other decent team in this division.  The Chiefs get the nod because they have a decent QB with a good target to throw to in Bowe, but really anybody could get second here - and likely with a losing record.

3.  Raiders.  I flip flopped the Raiders and the Broncos in this spot a bunch of times, but in the end I'm giving the Raiders the edge. Both teams have god awful defenses, ok O-Lines and questions at QB, but while Tom Cable seemingly has the Raiders showing a new dedication and a positive attitude, the Broncos seem like a complete mess right now (of course, one Raider coach punching out another has them not too far behind).  Either McFadden or Michael Bush will blow up this year, I'm just not sure which one.

4.  Broncos.  See above.  Outside of Champ Bailey and Eddie Royal, everybody on this team sucks.

NFC EAST

1.  Giants.  An already good team with an excellent running game and defense took steps to shore up it's receiving core by taking Hakeem Nicks and Ramses Barden in the draft.  Nicks has all the tools, and once he's up to speed on the mental game he should take over the #1 reciever role and remind people of Anquan Boldin. 

2.  Eagles. A very good defense needs help from the offense, and it looks like they will get it.  Pick ups of Jeremy Maclin (the second best rookie WR after Nicks) and LaSean McCoy will pay off, with McCoy able to fill in and maybe even outplay Brian Westbrook, who will inevitably get hurt at some point.

3.  Cowboys.  Who exactly is Tony Homo going to throw the ball too outside of Jason Witten?  The Cowboy receiving corps is terrible.  Patrick Crayton?  Miles Austin?  These guys are garbage, and their "#1 reciever" Roy Williams is nothing more than a highly touted mediocre player mascarading as the go-to-guy (much like Nick Blackburn).  Expect to see Felix Jones cut deeply in Marion Barber's carries, if not outright take the job away.  Then Barber and Maroney can call each other to cry.

4.  Redskins.  Another awesome defense (holy crap this division is loaded on D) gets better with Albert Haynesworth and Brian Orakpo joining the d-line - this might seriously be the best defense in the league, but it doesn't matter.  For the 10th year in a row the passing game is in the hands of Jason Campbell, Santana Moss, and Antwaan Randle-El.  That hasn't work before, and it's not going to magically click now.

NFC NORTH

1.  Vikings.  Fine, I'm in.  You got me.  I believe.  The defense is the best in history, Favre has another magic year in his arm, AP could run for 2,000+, and Percy Harvin will make everybody forget how good Randy Moss was as a rookie.  I've been sucked in.  And I hate myself for it.

2.  Packers. Aaron Rodgers looks like the real deal and Charles Woodson is apparently ageless.  However Ryan Grant sucks and the Packers switching from a 4-3 to a 3-4 defense without bothering to change any of there personnel.  Sounds like a rebuilding year.

3.  Bears.  There's a lot of chatter about the Bears being good, but just as their offense is improving, their defense is declining (16th in points allowed last year) and aren't getting any younger.  Cutler might have a good year, but with no actual receivers on the team the offensive improvement won't offset the now craptastic defense.

4.  Lions.  Rookie coach, rookie QB, and almost a completely new defensive squad doesn't add up to a very good year.  The good news is, the Lions will be improved.  The bad news is, it would be impossible not to be.  Stafford to Megatron could end up a pretty solid connection (where else is he going to throw it?)

NFC SOUTH

1.  Falcons.  Everybody is in love with Atlanta this year, and you can count me in.  Matt Ryan, Mike Turner, and Roddy White are the next Manning, Edge, and Harrison, and adding in Tony Gonzalez is going to make this one of the best offenses in the league.  If the defense is any good they could be super bowl contenders.

2.  Saints.  Break out season for Robert Meachem.  You heard it here first.

3.  Panthers.  These guys were 12-4 last season?  Must have been a huge fluke, because other than Julius Peppers, Steve Smith and DeAngelo there's nobody good here.  The defense is terrible and not improving, and Delhomme has been pretending to be an actual QB for years.  This is a crash and burn season.

4.  Bucs.  Byron Leftwich at QB?  Derrick Ward/Cadillac Williams/Earnest Graham as your RBs?  A terrible O-Line?  I have no idea what's going on here.  It's like they're tanking to get a better draft pick.  Dawger, your thoughts?

NFC WEST

1.  49ers.  Tough call in this division, but a commitment to running the ball down everybody's throat with Frank Gore sounds pretty good to me - guy is a stud. The defense is pretty decent too.  I see Shaun Hill having a caretaker Trent Dilfer-like season, which should be good enough to get San Fran into the playoffs.

2.  Seahawks.  I've written about Hasselbeck here before, no need to do it again.  I also expect Edge to give Seattle a running threat they haven't had since Shaun Alexander turned 80 - no, not to that level or even a high level, but more like a respectful level.

3.  Cardinals.  Warner gets hurt by week six and Leinart sucks - and so does their defense.

4.  Rams.  Yet another team who could threaten the 0-16 season.  It's entirely possible Steve Jackson could account for 90% of the yards gained by the Rams this year.  Don't buy into the Donnie Avery hype.


Wild Card:  Steelers over Texans, Colts over Bengals, Falcons over Eagles, Saints over 49ers.

Divisional:  Colts over Chargers, Patriots over Steelers, Vikings over Falcons,  Giants over Saints.

Championship Round:  Colts over Pats, Vikings over Giants

Super Bowl:  Colts over Vikings.

I would also just like to add here that I burned my hand two days ago with boiling water making Cup O' Noodles for lunch, so keep that in mind when reviewing these predictions.

Weekend Review

The Gopher basketball team was far, far too awesome this weekend to even be included in this review. My thoughts on the game can be found here, but it was truly an awesome, awesome victory for the soon to be nationally ranked Gophers. I expect they'll end up at about 17th, moving up to 15th or so after a couple more cupcake wins going into the big new year's eve day tilt against the Spartans, at the genius time of 11:00am. Speaking of Spartans.....


WHO WAS AWESOME

1. Michigan State Hoops. The overall profile of the Big Ten got yet another boost Saturday, as the Spartans waltzed into Houston’s Toyota Center to take on the #5 Texas Longhorns and walked out with a 67-63 victory; it’s even more impressive that although technically a neutral court, it was essentially a home game for the Longhorns, who actually led most of the way. The Spartans pulled it out on a Durrell Summers three-pointer from the corner with just 13 seconds left, despite being outrebounded 37-29. They were able to overcome that with some hot shooting, as they hit 51% from the floor compared to just 39% for Texas. Interestingly, even though this game was loaded by incredible athletes on both sides, it was a tall, gawky, doofy, foreign, white, big man who led the Spartans to victory, as Goran Suton dominated with 18 points on 7-8 shooting – and chipped in with all of two rebounds. The Spartans definitely needed a boost here after blowing their only other chance to impress by getting blown out by UNC (not to mention the loss to Maryland at home); great win for them and for the conference’s profile.

2. Peyton Manning. Don’t look now, but suddenly the Colts are looking like a legit contender for the Super Bowl again after starting the season looking like utter horsecrap, and it’s mainly due to Manning’s incredible play once again. He threw for 364 yards and 3 TDs against Jacksonville on Thursday in bring the Colts back from down 14 to a 31-24 victory. That makes the third straight game he hasn’t thrown a pick, throwing for at least 275 yards in each. He’s been way overshadowed by the amazing seasons of Drew Brees and Kurt Warner this year, both with a shot to topple Marino’s total passing yards in a season record, but he’s currently third in the NFL in both yards and touchdowns. They have already locked up a playoff spot, and are looking to be one of the hottest teams going into the post season. If I had to make a pick to win the Super Bowl right now, I’d go with the Colts with the Steelers the only other team I’d even consider.

3. Brandon Roy. I don’t generally write much about the NBA because it sucks, but when a guy is doing what Brandon Roy is doing and he should be a T-Wolf, and isn’t, I can’t help it. Roy put up 52 points against the Suns this past Thursday, and is averaging 34.5 points per game in his last five to go with 5.6 rebounds and 5 assists and is having like this written about him, calling him the player who will lead the Blazers into the next great NBA Dynasty. Great. At least the Wolves have Randy Foye and that extra million in cash, apparently used to sign superstar point guard Kevin Ollie.

4. Jodie Meeks. Kentucky’s resident gunner and leading scorer, Meeks exploded all over Appalachian State’s face on Saturday, going for a career high 46 points as the Wildcats beat the Mountaineers 93-69. Meeks, who has also scored 39 against VMI and 37 against Kansas State this season, shot 14-21 from the floor, including 9-14 from three, and 9-10 on free throws. Hmm…..46 points on just 21 shots? Are you paying attention Steve Curry? Meeks not only leads the Wildcats in scoring, but also came into the game as the SEC’s leading scorer at 21.9 ppg (on less than 16 shots per game). He had kind of a disappointing career to this point after coming to UK as the 39th best player in the country according to Rivals. He had a decent freshman year, but stagnated as a sophomore. He seems now to have put it all together, and has Kentucky looking in pretty good shape at 8-3 after a pretty rough start to the season.

5. UCONN Hoops. I was all set to write up this spot about Gonzaga, who I love this year. They are ranked 7th and were playing the 2nd ranked UCONN Huskies and seemed to be in control of the game, leading by double-digits with about 10 minutes left in the game. The UCONN did the improbable, rallying back to tie the game on a ridiculous, ill-advised three pointer by AJ Price with less than 8 seconds left. The game went to OT after Gonzaga couldn’t get a shot, where the Huskies ridiculous guard tandem of Price and Jerome Dyson took over with Thabeet fouled out and got the win for UCONN, 88-83. To go into Seattle, Gonzaga’s second home, and come out with a win is as impressive a win as there is in college basketball. Everything about this team, and particularly their guards, screams final four and national title contender. Keep your eye on these guys.


WHO SUCKED

1. Stephen Curry. Can we all chill out about Curry now? Davidson got absolutely killed this weekend by Purdue, in yet another Big Ten win over a ranked team, 76-58 in a game that saw the Boilers jump out to a 25-2 lead and coast to victory from there. Precious basketball Jehovah Stephen Curry managed to score 16 points, grab 8 boards, and dish out 6 assists, and that’s all you’ll hear about. Nobody will bother to mention his 5-26 shooting, which was 3-17 in the first half before he got “hot” and finished up 2-9. Can we please, please, relax with all the best player in the country talk. He’s good, no doubt, but, and I can’t stress this enough, HE SCORES SO MANY POINTS BECAUSE HE SHOOTS THE BALL SO GOD DAMNED MUCH. Christ, Lawrence Westbrook would score 40 a game if he shot the ball as much as Curry. Do you know Curry takes 36% of all Davidson shots? Even more shocking is that’s only 11th in the country in that stat. Who knew there were 10 worse ball hogs than him? (His brother is 39th, at 33% of Liberty’s shot attempts). He’s also first in the country in shot attempts per game, which includes that one weird game where he only took 3. Think about that. And yet the “experts” continue to praise him, like this guy from rivals who calls him, “The Most Surprising” player this year, and means it in a good way. Arg.

2. Oregon Hoops. As I said before the season started, this team is garbage. Even though they managed a win against an even more pathetic Portland team on Saturday, they needed overtime to do it against a team that had already lost to both Northern Colorado and Eastern Washington this year.. Before that win, they had dropped back-to-back home games against St. Mary’s and San Diego, and had a record of 4-6, an embarrassment for a BCS conference team. The main issue here is little man Tajuan Porter, who is like a more out of control Terrance Simmons – you read that correctly. He’s leading the team in shot attempts, despite shooting just 38% from the floor and from three. Even better, despite allegedly being a point guard he’s putting up just 1.6 assists against 2.2 turnovers. If you’re wondering about former Gopher target Josh Crittle, he’s averaging 1.6 points and 2.7 rebounds in 14 minutes per game. If you’re a betting man, go against this team every game. IT’S A LOCK.

3. Xavier hoops. There is nothing particularly wrong with losing to Duke, especially when they are ranked sixth in the country. There is, however, an issue with getting blown out when you are the seventh ranked team, the game is at a neutral site, and this is pretty much your last real chance to make an impression against a top team. The Musketeers laid an egg, getting run by the Dukies 86-68 in a game that wasn’t really that close, and now play a couple of non-conference patsies before going on to run through the A-10 schedule. I’ve mentioned the A-10 is improved this year, but Xavier still shouldn’t have a problem. They still have the win against Memphis in their pocket, which is looking less and less impressive, and the win at Cincy will hold up well, but remember this Duke loss come tourney time. OUT in the second round. Book it.

4. Memphis Hoops. The Tigers have dropped out of the top 25 after losing at home to Syracuse on Saturday, and have essentially blown every opportunity to get a big win. The lost at Xavier 63-58, and at Georgetown 79-70 before today’s home loss. Not that you can count the Tigers out completely, as they will almost certainly roll through Conference USA once again, although this year I expect a loss or two rather than another undefeated conference season. This year’s edition of the Tigers looks a little punchless, as shown by this week’s 59-51 squeaker win against Arkansas – Little Rock of all teams. They still have a couple of opportunities to reassert themselves, with non-conference games against Gonzaga and Tennessee coming up in the new year, but I haven’t seen much from them this year to make me think they have any chance of being a factor.

5. Dock Ellis. Not so much him, but the fact that this crazy son of a bitch died really sucks. That's him pictured above, and if you aren't familiar with him, he pitched from 1968 to 1979, winning 138 games mainly for the Pirates, but is more well known for some seriously crazy stories. You can read more here and especially here but he is probably most well-known for pitching a no hitter on acid, where he could only tell if the batter was left or right handed, and couldn't really see who was up after getting blitzed the night before because he thought he had the next day off. My personal favorite Ellis story is that in 1974 the Pirates were in a big-time rivalry with the Reds. Thinking his teammates were soft, he decided to make a point by hitting every batter in the Reds' lineup. After beaning Pete Rose, Joe Morgan, and Dan Driessen to load the bases to start the game, Tony Perez managed to avoid four straight pitches aimed at him to walk in a run. After throwing his next two pitches at Johnny Bench's head, his manager finally took him out of the game. He can basically be summed up by this quote, "Barry Bonds? I'd hit him at least once a game. 'Cause he's got all that shit on. Yeah, let's see that shit stop the ball from hurting him if I hit him on the motherfucking elbow or something. I'd hit him just to see, does it work?" Awesome.


Honorable mention to fantasy football. I effing quit and I hope DeAngelo Williams dies. And Matt Schaub too. Way to throw it to the best receiver in football only three times. How did continually dumping it off to backs and white receivers work out for ya, captain dipshit.

Seriously. Favre = Rose.

So there's been some chatter in the comment section of the post below, mostly disagreeing with me that Brett Favre is like Pete Rose.

Since apparently it needs to be spelled out, I did some research. I took fourteen quarterbacks who could be considered in the All-Time Greatest discussion: Brett Favre, Joe Montana, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Warren Moon, Johnny Unitas, Jim Kelly, Steve Young, Dan Marino, Terry Bradshaw, Dan Fouts, Fran Tarkenton, Roger Staubach, and John Elway and compared their stats.

But I didn't compare compiled stats, which accumulate over time based on games played and passes attempted. Those are the stats by which Rose and Favre look good, based on nothing more than longevity, by being average or slightly above average for a lot of years. I looked at Yards/Game, Yards/Attempt, Completion %, Attempts/TD, Attempts/INT, and TD/Int. Pretty standard stats. The following chart shows how each player ranked in each category, as well as a total of the rankings to show who is the best QB of all-time:

		Yds/G	Yds/Att	Comp %	Att/Td	Att/INT	Td/Int	TOTAL
1	Manning	1	3	2	1	4	3	14
2	Young	10	1	1	3	3	2	20
3	Brady	6	10	4	5	1	1	27
4	Montana	9	6	3	8	2	4	32
5	Marino	2	8	7	10	5	5	37
6	Favre	3	14	5	9	7	6	44
7	Kelly	7	7	6	11	9	8	48
8	Staubach	13	5	11	7	10	7	53
9	Fouts	4	4	8	12	12	13	53
10	Unitas	12	2	13	2	13	12	54
11	Tarkenton	11	9	10	6	11	10	57
12	Moon	5	11	9	13	8	11	57
13	Elway	8	13	12	14	6	9	62
14	Bradshaw	14	12	14	4	14	14	72

It's pretty clear when it's all laid out for you like this. Favre, while a pretty good quarterback and yes, an all-time great, is certainly not the greatest of all-time, and actually ranks number six. Manning, Young, Brady, Montana, and Marino all rank higher than him in terms of per game performance, and it's not close.

So go ahead and proclaim to everyone that you believe Favre is the greatest quarterback of all-time. That's fine, to each his own. But just know, if you are saying Favre is the greatest, you better be saying Pete Rose is the greatest as well.