Minnesota Timberwolves 2012-2013 Preview

Ricky Rehabbing Knee

So, I had planned on doing a little blurb about every team in the NBA leading up to a grand Timberwolves finale today.  I made it through the Eastern Conference and I'm freaking exhausted.  So, today I'm doing the Wolves season preview as planned, and maybe I'll haiku the crap out of the rest of the conference early next week.

Chance for the playoffs
Hangs in the balance by just
a few knee tendons

If I knew how to photoshop, I'd draw a face on that mole.

Say what you will about KAHN, he's certainly had his ups and downs as the GM for the Timberwolves.  One thing that continues to be a theme though is if you can't play, you're out.  Even if he drafted you and thought very highly of you (Flynn>hi) - he doesn't keep you around long if you don't perform.  Another thing that is fairly easy to see is how the Wolves have gained depth under the KAHN regime. Remember when guys like Rashad McCants, Sebastien Telfair and Craig Smith were playing major minutes?

Also, I don't know how he did it, but getting Rick Adelman was a stroke of luck/genius.  It could be as simple as Kevin Love's connection to him, but man, he is one good NBA coach.  I'm sure all of the money helps too.

Let's break down our 2012-13 Timberwolves by position.

Point Guard - There is no doubt that Ricky Rubio was a sensation in 2011...right up until the horrible knee injury that resulted in a torn ACL and LCL.  Watching that poor dude roll on the ground was pretty sad.  Seeing him now as he prepares to return (mid-December is the latest projection), he appears to be in high spirits and ready to roll.  Rubio probably won't be going for 35mpg like he did last season, rather they'll work him back slowly, so I wouldn't expect a big jump from the 10 points and 8 assists he had last year.  He truly is a player that everyone on the court better and I can't wait for him to get back.  In the meantime, Luke Ridnour and JJ Barea are more than capable backup point guards.  Ridnour (12ppg, 4.8apg) signed a 4 year, $16MM deal in 2010 that was panned by most, but he's been a solid player.  Look for the 32.2% he shot from 3 point range to jump back up to the 37-38% range.  Barea (11ppg) was banged up a lot last year, but I like his aggressive play style and he'll chip in as well.

Shooting Guard - Brandon Roy is back!  You may remember the Timberwolves briefly had his rights before we pissed them away for Randy Foye and $1MM cash money.  Roy went overseas and had super secret wolverine type procedures to repair his knees with adamantium.  He'll be playing 30+ minutes right off the bat, so we'll see how he holds up I guess.  I'm hopeful and with the injuries I can see Roy being a 17-18+ppg game until Love and Rubio return.  This guy can score and can finish games, and if he's 90% of his formal self we have a legit 2-guard.  Alexey Shved was a sneaky signing from Russia and I and many other internet knobs have compared his game to Rubio's.  It's true in that he's an excellent ball handler, he's all over on the court, he runs the floor.  It's different in that he's bigger (6'7") and he's a better shooter.  He may not play much early as Ridnour and Barea may see time at the shooting guard as well, but I see him playing more as the year progress.  Malcolm Lee is a second round pick from UCLA that is in his second year with the Wolves.  He's considered a pretty good defender and by most accounts is work hard to improve his all-around game.  I don't see him playing a lot unless they're even further decimated by injuries at this point.

Small Forward - The Wolves landed another Russian import and former all-star in Andrei Kirilenko.  One thing previous Wolves' teams have lacked is a lock-down type defender.  Kirlienko can be that guy.  He's big enough to play the small or power forward position and he's very nifty inside.  He moves well without the ball and runs the floor on the break.  He even shoots a decent percentage from the 3 (35.7%) over his career.  He's also average more than a block and a steal per game through his career.  He doesn't need to be a focal point of an offense to be effective, which is extremely useful.  Chase Budinger was also added this year when the Wolves traded their #18 pick to Houston for him.  Kevin McHale satisfied his man-crush for Royce White with that pick and the headaches have already begun. (maddencruiser)  Budinger is a good offensive player; he's athletic, he runs well and can shoot it.  Dante Cunningham was obtained in a trade to Memphis for Wayne Ellington.  Cunningham is a physical player that is known for his defense and rebounding skills.  

Power Forward - Kevin Love, work-out machine, busted his hand doing kick ass high intensity knuckle pushups and will be out until at least late November. We'll also see plenty of Derrick Williams this year and he'll start in Love's absence.  He had a couple of big pre-season games and he really needs to show something early in the year.  He had surgery on his nose of all things in the off-season to improve his breathing which apparently will allow him to work out more and just get along better in general basketball-wise.  I wouldn't be surprised if Kahn shops Williams this year as there is kind of a logjam at SF/PF, but I doubt he'd give up Williams for peanuts, but it's definitely time to put up or shut up.  Louis Amundson is a warm body at the PF position that can't shoot and is kind of a long-haired Mark Madson.

Center - Nikola Pekovic, who I've always been a fan of because I think he's probably buried a couple of bodies in Montenegro, had a big breakout last season.  He's leaner and even meaner this year and I expect big things.  In fact, Pek and Roy will likely be the main options early in the year.  Like Love, Pekovic is a monster on the offensive glass. He averaged 14 points and 7.4 rebounds last year, but that doesn't reflect how great he was when his minutes picked up.  Greg Stiemsma was brought in from the Boston Celtics and is taking a break from his acting career in the Hellboy movies.  He brings a strong defensive presence as well (recognize a theme, we have some defenders!).  

So, there you have it, a quick recap of the roster.  There's a lot to be hopeful for even with the injuries.  As long as Roy doesn't break and Rubio and Love return in December, we're going to watch some playoff basketball come spring. 

Wolves Retool, Emphasis on the Tool

It's been a wild and wacky off-season for the Wolves.  The one thing you can say about Kahn is he doesn't stand pat.  I appreciate the fact that he's wheeling and dealing and scraping for some players instead of signing the basketball equivalent of Jamey Carroll and quitting. (Yes, I know about Willingham, but stay with me.)  If you're a big dork like me an follow twitter and websites for every off-season hoops rumor you know the Wolves are involved in about half of them.  They didn't always hit on their efforts to land players, but boy are they trying.  In addition, the drafting of Rubio and the play of Kevin Love actually makes players want to come here now!  Can you believe that?  Brandon Roy talked about a white Christmas with his family moving to Minnesota.  That's freaking incredible.

By the way, the basketball equivalent of Jamey Carroll is Toronto Raptor Jose Calderon.

I can do a few things, but I am overpaid and deserve your hatred.

The Wolves moved some malcontents and underachievers for some new white guys and an embattled former star.  Beasley was allowed to walk instead of picking up his $9MM-ish qualifying offer.  He went to Phoenix where he'll likely be allowed to chuck it 20 times a game in order to get them a high lottery pick.  Martell Webster was also jettisoned; and he could be considered the first salvo in what has become a Portland/Minnesota hoops feud.  Minnesota claims that Portland knew that Martell's back was beyond jacked and did not trade in good faith.  They are actually pursuing this with the NBA and asking for a pick (assume 2nd round) for compensation.  I doubt anything comes of it other than some people laugh at Kahn.

The Wolves then made a play for Nic Batum in the hopes of getting a wing that could actually defend someone one-on-one.  They made an pretty massive offer for a player that has a lot of skill and upside, but isn't an all-star type...at least not yet.  The Blazers waited until the zero hour and then matched.  At the same time they also helped facilitate a trade for another potential Wolves target by being the 3rd party in the Courtney Lee sign and trade to the Celtics.  This isn't over, Blazers! *shakesfist*

The Wolves also got Brandon Roy, who apparently has regenerated some knee parts by visiting the Island of Dr. Moreau and getting some injections.  In cripple mode he was near worthless, but he claims he feels better than he's felt in years after the procedure, so we'll see.  If the Wovles get 25 mins a game of  not quite as good as ol' Roy, that's a steal.  Remember Ol' Roy dog food from Christmas Vacation?

So who else is gone?  Anthony Randolph, Brad Miller (retired), probably Anthony Tolliver (as they're out of spots unless they cut some dudes) and former #4 pick Wes Johnson.  Watching Wes Johnson go dunk-a-tron on everyone at Syracuse made me think this was a good pick at the time.  Turns out Wes didn't have any fire in his belly and just kind of coasted through most of his games with the Wolves.  I'm pretty sure Wes is constantly on shrooms; do they test for that? Wes goes to Phoenix (Beasley AND Wes, what could go wrong?) and will try for new life on a career that's been disapointingly poop-stained.  Oh yeah, they traded Wayne Ellington for Dante Cunningham too.

In exchange for these guys, the Wolves brought in a veritable blizzard of white guys. You already know about Chase Budinger coming aboard for the 18th overall pick. In addition the Wolves add a pair of Russians in Aleksey Shved (23) and  Andrei Kirilenko (31).  The Wes trade was to free up cap to get Kirilenko, who Kahn signed toa  2 year $20MM deal. That is a LOT of cash for a guy on the back nine of his career, but there are no other FAs left that can bring what he can and I've been given to understand the second year is a player option in case Andrei wants to go back to Mother Russia and drink wodka.  Plus, Kirlenko has a sweet nick-name (AK47) and a hot wife that lets him go off the farm on his b-day.  Shved is an upside play and I've watched enough youtube to see that he's as slippery as an eel and has good ball-handling and an OK jumper. I've seen clips where he alternates between delivering and receiving alley-oops.  He signed a 3 year deal for about $10MM and I like the play for some sneaky upside.  If he were a draft pick I'd consider him the type of guy that goes in the 15-25 range.  Could be solid; could make you punch your cat in frustration.  Lastly, the Wolves signed backup center Greg Stiemsma to fill their backup stiff position.  Stiemsa has a couple things going for him:  1) he's white and we're apparently trying to set some kind of record with that and 2) he can defend inside a bit.  I think he was a good signing.

The lack of shoulder blades allows Shved to more easily windmill dunk.

So the roster as of now is something like this:

PG:  Rubio (out w/knee), Ridnour, Barea, Jerome Dyson?
SG:  Ol' Roy, Budinger (SF), Shved, Malcom Lee?
SF:  Andrei Kirilenko, Dante Cunningham, Robbie Hummel Figurine
PF:  Love, D. Williams
C:   Pekovic, Greg Stiemsma, Paulo Prestes?

That's an incredible 11 white-ish players.  Although I'm not certain about the guys with questions marks making the team at this point.  That list has 16 and the Wolves need to get down to 15.  In addition, the Wolves had been in talks with Carl Landry to bolster their big man ranks.  I did think Prestes looked decent in summer league play, but no one tries there.  Jerome Dyson sucks (get it?) and I haven't seen much of Lee but the reason he was drafted in the 2nd in 2011 was he can defend, so it might be a good idea to hang on to him.  Dante Cunningham is kind of Jack of all trades type that should be able to provides some defense. 

This season likely hinges on Brandon Roy and Ricky Rubio's health.  As mentioned, if Roy can be 90% of his old self and play around 25 minutes, he's a weapon.  Rubio's recovery from knee surgery appears to be going great and I've heard anything from late September to December for the date of his return.  If he can come back and play like he was playing before injury, this is a team that can get in the playoffs.  There.  I said it.

Roy may not start in the beginning and I could see lineups were Budinger starts at the 2 or at the 3, pushing Kirilenko to the bench.  I also suspect AK47 and D. Williams will share a lot of time on the floor with Williams defending the lesser offensive weapon at either the 3 or 4.  There are lineup configurations here that present post options with Pek, pick an roll options with a number of players as well as some players that love to run.  Budinger, Ak47, Williams, Shved and even Stiemsma can run the floor and will get some alley-oops.  Should be fun to watch. 

Defensively, there are a few players that I consider good passing lane defenders, like Rubio and Budinger.  Pek is good on the blocks just because he's very physical.  Steimsma is a plus defender, as are Kirilenko and Cunningham.  Love is still a turnstyle but he and Pek rebound like the dickens.

Early homer projection based on a healthy Rubio return by late November is a .500 record and the 8 seed.

In closing...

Makes you want to troll the Russian Brides websites...

Weekend Review

The Gopher basketball team was far, far too awesome this weekend to even be included in this review. My thoughts on the game can be found here, but it was truly an awesome, awesome victory for the soon to be nationally ranked Gophers. I expect they'll end up at about 17th, moving up to 15th or so after a couple more cupcake wins going into the big new year's eve day tilt against the Spartans, at the genius time of 11:00am. Speaking of Spartans.....


WHO WAS AWESOME

1. Michigan State Hoops. The overall profile of the Big Ten got yet another boost Saturday, as the Spartans waltzed into Houston’s Toyota Center to take on the #5 Texas Longhorns and walked out with a 67-63 victory; it’s even more impressive that although technically a neutral court, it was essentially a home game for the Longhorns, who actually led most of the way. The Spartans pulled it out on a Durrell Summers three-pointer from the corner with just 13 seconds left, despite being outrebounded 37-29. They were able to overcome that with some hot shooting, as they hit 51% from the floor compared to just 39% for Texas. Interestingly, even though this game was loaded by incredible athletes on both sides, it was a tall, gawky, doofy, foreign, white, big man who led the Spartans to victory, as Goran Suton dominated with 18 points on 7-8 shooting – and chipped in with all of two rebounds. The Spartans definitely needed a boost here after blowing their only other chance to impress by getting blown out by UNC (not to mention the loss to Maryland at home); great win for them and for the conference’s profile.

2. Peyton Manning. Don’t look now, but suddenly the Colts are looking like a legit contender for the Super Bowl again after starting the season looking like utter horsecrap, and it’s mainly due to Manning’s incredible play once again. He threw for 364 yards and 3 TDs against Jacksonville on Thursday in bring the Colts back from down 14 to a 31-24 victory. That makes the third straight game he hasn’t thrown a pick, throwing for at least 275 yards in each. He’s been way overshadowed by the amazing seasons of Drew Brees and Kurt Warner this year, both with a shot to topple Marino’s total passing yards in a season record, but he’s currently third in the NFL in both yards and touchdowns. They have already locked up a playoff spot, and are looking to be one of the hottest teams going into the post season. If I had to make a pick to win the Super Bowl right now, I’d go with the Colts with the Steelers the only other team I’d even consider.

3. Brandon Roy. I don’t generally write much about the NBA because it sucks, but when a guy is doing what Brandon Roy is doing and he should be a T-Wolf, and isn’t, I can’t help it. Roy put up 52 points against the Suns this past Thursday, and is averaging 34.5 points per game in his last five to go with 5.6 rebounds and 5 assists and is having like this written about him, calling him the player who will lead the Blazers into the next great NBA Dynasty. Great. At least the Wolves have Randy Foye and that extra million in cash, apparently used to sign superstar point guard Kevin Ollie.

4. Jodie Meeks. Kentucky’s resident gunner and leading scorer, Meeks exploded all over Appalachian State’s face on Saturday, going for a career high 46 points as the Wildcats beat the Mountaineers 93-69. Meeks, who has also scored 39 against VMI and 37 against Kansas State this season, shot 14-21 from the floor, including 9-14 from three, and 9-10 on free throws. Hmm…..46 points on just 21 shots? Are you paying attention Steve Curry? Meeks not only leads the Wildcats in scoring, but also came into the game as the SEC’s leading scorer at 21.9 ppg (on less than 16 shots per game). He had kind of a disappointing career to this point after coming to UK as the 39th best player in the country according to Rivals. He had a decent freshman year, but stagnated as a sophomore. He seems now to have put it all together, and has Kentucky looking in pretty good shape at 8-3 after a pretty rough start to the season.

5. UCONN Hoops. I was all set to write up this spot about Gonzaga, who I love this year. They are ranked 7th and were playing the 2nd ranked UCONN Huskies and seemed to be in control of the game, leading by double-digits with about 10 minutes left in the game. The UCONN did the improbable, rallying back to tie the game on a ridiculous, ill-advised three pointer by AJ Price with less than 8 seconds left. The game went to OT after Gonzaga couldn’t get a shot, where the Huskies ridiculous guard tandem of Price and Jerome Dyson took over with Thabeet fouled out and got the win for UCONN, 88-83. To go into Seattle, Gonzaga’s second home, and come out with a win is as impressive a win as there is in college basketball. Everything about this team, and particularly their guards, screams final four and national title contender. Keep your eye on these guys.


WHO SUCKED

1. Stephen Curry. Can we all chill out about Curry now? Davidson got absolutely killed this weekend by Purdue, in yet another Big Ten win over a ranked team, 76-58 in a game that saw the Boilers jump out to a 25-2 lead and coast to victory from there. Precious basketball Jehovah Stephen Curry managed to score 16 points, grab 8 boards, and dish out 6 assists, and that’s all you’ll hear about. Nobody will bother to mention his 5-26 shooting, which was 3-17 in the first half before he got “hot” and finished up 2-9. Can we please, please, relax with all the best player in the country talk. He’s good, no doubt, but, and I can’t stress this enough, HE SCORES SO MANY POINTS BECAUSE HE SHOOTS THE BALL SO GOD DAMNED MUCH. Christ, Lawrence Westbrook would score 40 a game if he shot the ball as much as Curry. Do you know Curry takes 36% of all Davidson shots? Even more shocking is that’s only 11th in the country in that stat. Who knew there were 10 worse ball hogs than him? (His brother is 39th, at 33% of Liberty’s shot attempts). He’s also first in the country in shot attempts per game, which includes that one weird game where he only took 3. Think about that. And yet the “experts” continue to praise him, like this guy from rivals who calls him, “The Most Surprising” player this year, and means it in a good way. Arg.

2. Oregon Hoops. As I said before the season started, this team is garbage. Even though they managed a win against an even more pathetic Portland team on Saturday, they needed overtime to do it against a team that had already lost to both Northern Colorado and Eastern Washington this year.. Before that win, they had dropped back-to-back home games against St. Mary’s and San Diego, and had a record of 4-6, an embarrassment for a BCS conference team. The main issue here is little man Tajuan Porter, who is like a more out of control Terrance Simmons – you read that correctly. He’s leading the team in shot attempts, despite shooting just 38% from the floor and from three. Even better, despite allegedly being a point guard he’s putting up just 1.6 assists against 2.2 turnovers. If you’re wondering about former Gopher target Josh Crittle, he’s averaging 1.6 points and 2.7 rebounds in 14 minutes per game. If you’re a betting man, go against this team every game. IT’S A LOCK.

3. Xavier hoops. There is nothing particularly wrong with losing to Duke, especially when they are ranked sixth in the country. There is, however, an issue with getting blown out when you are the seventh ranked team, the game is at a neutral site, and this is pretty much your last real chance to make an impression against a top team. The Musketeers laid an egg, getting run by the Dukies 86-68 in a game that wasn’t really that close, and now play a couple of non-conference patsies before going on to run through the A-10 schedule. I’ve mentioned the A-10 is improved this year, but Xavier still shouldn’t have a problem. They still have the win against Memphis in their pocket, which is looking less and less impressive, and the win at Cincy will hold up well, but remember this Duke loss come tourney time. OUT in the second round. Book it.

4. Memphis Hoops. The Tigers have dropped out of the top 25 after losing at home to Syracuse on Saturday, and have essentially blown every opportunity to get a big win. The lost at Xavier 63-58, and at Georgetown 79-70 before today’s home loss. Not that you can count the Tigers out completely, as they will almost certainly roll through Conference USA once again, although this year I expect a loss or two rather than another undefeated conference season. This year’s edition of the Tigers looks a little punchless, as shown by this week’s 59-51 squeaker win against Arkansas – Little Rock of all teams. They still have a couple of opportunities to reassert themselves, with non-conference games against Gonzaga and Tennessee coming up in the new year, but I haven’t seen much from them this year to make me think they have any chance of being a factor.

5. Dock Ellis. Not so much him, but the fact that this crazy son of a bitch died really sucks. That's him pictured above, and if you aren't familiar with him, he pitched from 1968 to 1979, winning 138 games mainly for the Pirates, but is more well known for some seriously crazy stories. You can read more here and especially here but he is probably most well-known for pitching a no hitter on acid, where he could only tell if the batter was left or right handed, and couldn't really see who was up after getting blitzed the night before because he thought he had the next day off. My personal favorite Ellis story is that in 1974 the Pirates were in a big-time rivalry with the Reds. Thinking his teammates were soft, he decided to make a point by hitting every batter in the Reds' lineup. After beaning Pete Rose, Joe Morgan, and Dan Driessen to load the bases to start the game, Tony Perez managed to avoid four straight pitches aimed at him to walk in a run. After throwing his next two pitches at Johnny Bench's head, his manager finally took him out of the game. He can basically be summed up by this quote, "Barry Bonds? I'd hit him at least once a game. 'Cause he's got all that shit on. Yeah, let's see that shit stop the ball from hurting him if I hit him on the motherfucking elbow or something. I'd hit him just to see, does it work?" Awesome.


Honorable mention to fantasy football. I effing quit and I hope DeAngelo Williams dies. And Matt Schaub too. Way to throw it to the best receiver in football only three times. How did continually dumping it off to backs and white receivers work out for ya, captain dipshit.