NFL Predictions, 2009

You asked, and thus you shall recieve.  NFL predictions, team-by-team.  As always, you can expect this to be incredibly accurate.

AFC EAST

1.  Patriots.  Brady's back, and I'm pretty sure he's all the way back, which means big seasons for him, Moss, and Welker.  The defense might be an issue this season, and the RB situation is confusing (way to go Maroney) but will probably end up with three or four guys splitting the yards and TDs, but they're certainly good enough to win the division and maybe the whole thing.

2.  Dolphins.  The preeminant Wildcat running team adds Pat White, perhaps the best dual threat QB in college football since Major Harris or Rickey Foggie?  This is going to be spectacular, whether for good or ill.  I'm betting good, and wouldn't be shocked to see the Dolphins make the playoffs and White become responsible for getting Teebo drafted in round 1 rather than round 3.

3.  Jets.  Mark Sanchez will be a good QB.  Mark Sanchez will not be a good QB this year.  Thomas Jones is 100 years old.

4.  Bills.  See, the thing is, you need a quarterback to win.  Trent Edwards is not a real quarterback.  Even worse is that the trade of Jason Peter means the Bills will have five brand new starters on the O-Line this year, and they didn't exactly sign a gang of Steve Hutchinsons.  How long do you think T.O. is going to stay well-behaved in this situation?  Honestly, this might be the most likely team to go 0-16 out of the whole bunch.

AFC NORTH

1.  Steelers.  They make almost no changes, and why should they?  The only position I see them falling off in is at RB, where Willie Parker is about to fall off a cliff into Shaun Alexander-land, they have a high quality replacement waiting in the wings in Rashard Mendenhall. 

2.  Bengals.   This is the team that I think will surprise.  Carson is back, and coming with him will be Ochocinco who is "revitalized" which really just means he's a bitchy little whiner who wouldn't try last year because they sucked and now everyone thinks they will be good again so he will be good again - and I agree.  Plus the defense isn't half bad, actually, at least not as bad as you think.  Playoffs, baby.  Believe.

3.  Ravens.  Mark Clayton still hasn't developed and Derrick Mason is hanging around, but Ray Rice should develop into a star this year.  What happened to McGahee anyway?

4.  Browns.  Ok, maybe this is the team with the best chance to go 0-16, unless Brady Quinn has a magic arm.  My sources say no.  Expect James Davis to take Jamal's job by week 8.

AFC SOUTH

1.  Colts.  Dropping Marvin Harrison is actually going to help the team, trying to shoehorn an old, broken down murderer into game plans hurt both Reggie Wayne and Anthony Gonzalez.  Need proof?  In the game Marvin missed last season, Peyton Manning threw for 364 yards and 3 TDs, completing 29 of 34 pass attempts.  After 2004 it's hard to predict Peyton to "have his best year" ever again, but this could be the season.

2.  Texans.  Is this finally the year?  It will be as long as Schaub stays healthy.  These guys are pretty much solid all around, with the best receiver in football in Andre Johnson and a good offense and defense all the way around.  If Matty can play all 16, they'll make the playoffs for the first time.

3.  Titans.  Once again, I refuse to believe in Tennessee.  Collins isn't very good and has nobody to throw to, and when he gets hurt and/or falls off the wagon Vince Young is worse than T-Jax.  LenDale White lost weight which means he's now slow and has no power instead of being slow with power, and Chris Johnson might be the most overrated running back in the league.  The defense is good though.

4.  Jags.  Tough to put them fourth, but this is a very good division this year.  MJD was going to be a star this year, but now he's banged up and will probably suck.  Way to pick him in the top 3, everybody in America.

AFC WEST

1.  Chargers.  The demise of Ladainian Tomlinson has been greatly exaggerated.  He was hampered big time by injuries last season, and still managed to put up decent numbers.  This year Sproles should cut into his touches a bit, but assuming he's healthy he should return to an elite level in a big way.  Plus, this division is absolute garbage after San Diego and they should win it without any problem.

2.  Chiefs.  Second place my default, there isn't a single other decent team in this division.  The Chiefs get the nod because they have a decent QB with a good target to throw to in Bowe, but really anybody could get second here - and likely with a losing record.

3.  Raiders.  I flip flopped the Raiders and the Broncos in this spot a bunch of times, but in the end I'm giving the Raiders the edge. Both teams have god awful defenses, ok O-Lines and questions at QB, but while Tom Cable seemingly has the Raiders showing a new dedication and a positive attitude, the Broncos seem like a complete mess right now (of course, one Raider coach punching out another has them not too far behind).  Either McFadden or Michael Bush will blow up this year, I'm just not sure which one.

4.  Broncos.  See above.  Outside of Champ Bailey and Eddie Royal, everybody on this team sucks.

NFC EAST

1.  Giants.  An already good team with an excellent running game and defense took steps to shore up it's receiving core by taking Hakeem Nicks and Ramses Barden in the draft.  Nicks has all the tools, and once he's up to speed on the mental game he should take over the #1 reciever role and remind people of Anquan Boldin. 

2.  Eagles. A very good defense needs help from the offense, and it looks like they will get it.  Pick ups of Jeremy Maclin (the second best rookie WR after Nicks) and LaSean McCoy will pay off, with McCoy able to fill in and maybe even outplay Brian Westbrook, who will inevitably get hurt at some point.

3.  Cowboys.  Who exactly is Tony Homo going to throw the ball too outside of Jason Witten?  The Cowboy receiving corps is terrible.  Patrick Crayton?  Miles Austin?  These guys are garbage, and their "#1 reciever" Roy Williams is nothing more than a highly touted mediocre player mascarading as the go-to-guy (much like Nick Blackburn).  Expect to see Felix Jones cut deeply in Marion Barber's carries, if not outright take the job away.  Then Barber and Maroney can call each other to cry.

4.  Redskins.  Another awesome defense (holy crap this division is loaded on D) gets better with Albert Haynesworth and Brian Orakpo joining the d-line - this might seriously be the best defense in the league, but it doesn't matter.  For the 10th year in a row the passing game is in the hands of Jason Campbell, Santana Moss, and Antwaan Randle-El.  That hasn't work before, and it's not going to magically click now.

NFC NORTH

1.  Vikings.  Fine, I'm in.  You got me.  I believe.  The defense is the best in history, Favre has another magic year in his arm, AP could run for 2,000+, and Percy Harvin will make everybody forget how good Randy Moss was as a rookie.  I've been sucked in.  And I hate myself for it.

2.  Packers. Aaron Rodgers looks like the real deal and Charles Woodson is apparently ageless.  However Ryan Grant sucks and the Packers switching from a 4-3 to a 3-4 defense without bothering to change any of there personnel.  Sounds like a rebuilding year.

3.  Bears.  There's a lot of chatter about the Bears being good, but just as their offense is improving, their defense is declining (16th in points allowed last year) and aren't getting any younger.  Cutler might have a good year, but with no actual receivers on the team the offensive improvement won't offset the now craptastic defense.

4.  Lions.  Rookie coach, rookie QB, and almost a completely new defensive squad doesn't add up to a very good year.  The good news is, the Lions will be improved.  The bad news is, it would be impossible not to be.  Stafford to Megatron could end up a pretty solid connection (where else is he going to throw it?)

NFC SOUTH

1.  Falcons.  Everybody is in love with Atlanta this year, and you can count me in.  Matt Ryan, Mike Turner, and Roddy White are the next Manning, Edge, and Harrison, and adding in Tony Gonzalez is going to make this one of the best offenses in the league.  If the defense is any good they could be super bowl contenders.

2.  Saints.  Break out season for Robert Meachem.  You heard it here first.

3.  Panthers.  These guys were 12-4 last season?  Must have been a huge fluke, because other than Julius Peppers, Steve Smith and DeAngelo there's nobody good here.  The defense is terrible and not improving, and Delhomme has been pretending to be an actual QB for years.  This is a crash and burn season.

4.  Bucs.  Byron Leftwich at QB?  Derrick Ward/Cadillac Williams/Earnest Graham as your RBs?  A terrible O-Line?  I have no idea what's going on here.  It's like they're tanking to get a better draft pick.  Dawger, your thoughts?

NFC WEST

1.  49ers.  Tough call in this division, but a commitment to running the ball down everybody's throat with Frank Gore sounds pretty good to me - guy is a stud. The defense is pretty decent too.  I see Shaun Hill having a caretaker Trent Dilfer-like season, which should be good enough to get San Fran into the playoffs.

2.  Seahawks.  I've written about Hasselbeck here before, no need to do it again.  I also expect Edge to give Seattle a running threat they haven't had since Shaun Alexander turned 80 - no, not to that level or even a high level, but more like a respectful level.

3.  Cardinals.  Warner gets hurt by week six and Leinart sucks - and so does their defense.

4.  Rams.  Yet another team who could threaten the 0-16 season.  It's entirely possible Steve Jackson could account for 90% of the yards gained by the Rams this year.  Don't buy into the Donnie Avery hype.


Wild Card:  Steelers over Texans, Colts over Bengals, Falcons over Eagles, Saints over 49ers.

Divisional:  Colts over Chargers, Patriots over Steelers, Vikings over Falcons,  Giants over Saints.

Championship Round:  Colts over Pats, Vikings over Giants

Super Bowl:  Colts over Vikings.

I would also just like to add here that I burned my hand two days ago with boiling water making Cup O' Noodles for lunch, so keep that in mind when reviewing these predictions.

Weekend Review

I'm going to try to do this every Monday now. Odds are, it won't be very consistent. Oh well.

WHO WAS AWESOME:

1. Michael Turner. Jumped head first into his new starting gig, leading all rushers with 220 yards and 2 TDs and jump starting all three of my fantasy teams to victory. Scored a 66 yd TD on one of his first few carries and it was all easy from there. On a related note, the Lions tackle like the Gophers

2. Gopher Football. Speaking of the Gophers, awesome might be a tad strong for it but they are certainly better than I expected. Let's not pretend Bowling Green is the world's greatest opponent, but I figured they were set up to blow the Gophers out of the water, especially at home. The defense turned the Eagles over five times, and the offense was good as expected. Maybe there's a little life in these guys. They should go into the Big Ten season at 4-0 now, and could easily squeak out two wins and head to a bowl. A great accomplishment this season.

3. Willie Parker. I thought he was done. A lot of people did, possibly including his own team after drafting Rashard Mendenhall. Parker served notice that he's still the man, going for +100 yds and three TDs, while Mendenhall got ten carries, mostly in garbage time, and did pretty much nothing. Pittsburgh looks very, very good, and suddenly my sleeper pick of the Texans has me worried, Andre Johnson awesomeness (10 catches, 112 yards).

4. Camilo Villegas. Pretty much lead the BMW the whole way, and didn't fold in the end despite having Jim Furyk take the lead in the final round. Came back and held off Anthony Kim in a duel that was fun to watch to take his first ever PGA tour victory.

5. Britney Spears. Watched the VMAs. She's hot again.

WHO SUCKED:

1. Tom Brady. Well, sucked is maybe not the right word, but getting hurt for the season certainly sucks for Brady, the Patriots, all of New England, all the girls (and boys) who would like to make sweet, sweet love to Mr. Brady, and several million fantasy owners (suck it, Dharma Bum). Personally, I'm bummed. I want the Patriots to fail with no excuses, not have a built in reason for failure. At least they won for me in my survivor pool.

2. Indianapolis Colts. Sorry Sidler, and if you'd like to expound on this, please do, but they looked god awful. I know the Bears are a solid-to-great defensive squad, but that was embarrassing. I have no idea if it was because Peyton was out all preseason and their timing is screwy or what, maybe it's the new stadium. I don't know, but it was awful. With them looking awful, the Chargers playing poorly, and Brady's injury, the Steelers are looking like a good pick right now.

3. Ted Ginn. I know he's not exactly a great player yet, but I was expecting a bit of a splash. 19 total yards and a fumble is not a way to take a step forward in your career. I don't know, maybe I'm just an idiot.

4. West Virginia. This is more of a pro-East Carolina thing, but I already have five positives above. The Pirates have now beaten two ranked teams in West Virginia and Virginia Tech, and with a pretty easy CUSA schedule in front of them could be in line for a BCS bowl bid. As for the Mountaineers, they have a schedule left that leaves them plenty of opportunity to get back in the BCS picture, but it's pretty clear that Pat White is no Major Harris.

5. The Twins. Way to keep sucking bullpen, great job.

MINI RANT:

Why, why, why do people lie about insignificant things nobody cares about? Here at work we have six people, most of whom get in between 7:30 - 9:00 every morning. I'm one of these. We have one guy who always tells people how he gets in before 7, usually by 6:30. Now, with a baby, no matter how genius-level her intelligence, she does some weird things in her sleep schedule and sometimes I'm up really early so I just head into work. In the approximate 100 days I've worked this job, I've ended up going in before 7 probably ten times. You know how many of those times this guy has been there when I arrived? Zero. Dude, you aren't here every day by seven. Sure, maybe sometimes. Maybe most of the time, but I find it pretty suspicious that you haven't been in even once when I get here early. Why lie? It makes no sense. Just say you try to get in before seven, ass. Nobody is impressed, and you're a damn dirty liar.