Gophers, Twins, Golf, all kinds of crap. Joe U says, "If Joe Posnanski wasn't blogging, you'd be the most entertaining person I read" and Patrick S. says
"Your blog is just about my favorite thing ever"
Can you be an NCAA title contender with two stars and a bunch of role-players? I was one of many to write off the Boilers chances after Robbie Hummel went down with yet another injury, but they are looking awfully good thus far this year. And although I can't remember the last team that was so reliant on two players (JaJuan Johnson and E'Twaun Moore score 50% of the team's points), those two might be good enough and might have the perfect complimentary pieces around them to make a big run come March.
Johnson, the best player in the Big Ten in my estimation, is the team's leading scorer (19.4 per game), rebounder (8.3 per game), and shot-blocker (2.5 per game). He is so versatile with the ball that he's nearly impossible to stop. He has a variety of moves on the inside, can hit a stand-still jumper out to 18 feet, and has a really nice turnaround that's very reminiscent of Hakim Warrick. He's also one of the best rebounders in the conference, on either end, and he's going to make Sampson/Mbakwe work and work hard on both sides of the ball. Really the only weakness I can think of is that I don't recall him being particularly adept at putting the ball on the floor, so if the Gopher defenders can get out on him on the perimeter and force him to give up the ball, then try to keep him off the block, the Gophers do have at least an outside shot at controlling him - although he's scored in double digits every game this year.
Moore (18.8 pts, 6.0 rebs, 3.1 assists, 1.7 steals per game) is just as big a concern, if not bigger given the Gophers' lack of perimeter defense this year. Moore can score from anywhere - he's an excellent shooter from three (42%), has a quality mid-range game, and can put the ball on the ground and drive. He's struggled the last two games from the outside (1-8 from three combined, just 15 total points), and the Gophers will need that to keep up. Even if his shot isn't falling, however, he does enough other things on the court with his rebounding and ability to find open teammates that he can still have a big impact on the game.
Simply put, limit those two and you have a chance. There is, however, one other major concern I'll point out, and that's junior guard Ryne Smith. Simply put, he's Hoffarber/Diebler in black (uniform, not skin). Since fellow shooter John Hart went down to injury, Smith has really stepped up his game. Since Big Ten play started, he's been unconscious. In Purdue's four conference games he's shot 5-6, 2-7, 5-5, and 6-9 from behind the line for a 67% accuracy mark, and is averaging 17 points per game in those four contests. All he does is shoot threes, but he does it extremely well (52% overall for the season). With all the attention that Johnson and Moore draw, he's going to get open looks. Against a team like Minnesota and their poor perimeter defense, he's going to get even more.
The last two individuals I want to mention for Purdue and Lewis Jackson and D.J. Byrd. Jackson is the lightning quick midget point guard who is almost impossible to keep out of the lane. He's not much for shooting (just 1-5 on threes this year), but uses his quickness to get lay-ups and short floaters as well as set up teammates for open looks (4.2 assists per game). He's basically a slightly better offensive version of Al Nolen without the defense. Byrd, on the other hand, is the next in the Brian Cardinal/Chris Kramer line. I mention him here not for you to fear him, but rather to warn you that you are going to be annoyed by him.
As a team, the Boilers are formidable as well. They rank 24th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 2nd in defensive, and the only thing they don't do well is that they're slightly below the national average in free-throw percentage (68.1% vs. 68.6%). In fact, they are so solid on defense the only metrics they don't rank in the top 50 nationally in are blocked shot percentage (86th) and steal percentage (153rd), but that doesn't really matter since apparently they just make you throw the ball out of bounds all day (24th in turnover percentage). It's going to be tough going on the offensive end for your beloved rodents.
It's going to be tough all around. Purdue is an outstanding team, and their would be no shame in losing this one, which is why it's not a "must-win" game. It is, however, a "must-compete" game. All we've seen out of this team since the West Virginia game (other than controversy) is poor performances against bad teams at home, and decent showings against good teams on the road. This is the Gophers' first opportunity to take on a good team at home, and they need to come out strong, play well, and keep this one tight if not win it. A three-point loss will convince me we have an NCAA caliber team, while a 15-point loss will have me making my NIT ticket reservations.
If the Gophers can limit at least one of Johnson or Moore while keeping the three-point line in check, continue to be a strong rebounding team, get out in transition and run whenever they can to avoid the half-court game, and get the ball into the bigs in the paint when they are in the half-court offense, they can win this. A lot of ifs, yes, but this is the kind of game a good team can use to make a statement. I am positive I am making a mistake, but something tells me this is exactly what the Gophers are going to do. It goes against everything in my pessimistic nature, but:
1. Ohio State Buckeyes. I'm still not sure how the Gophers managed to make there matchup with OSU a three-point game, but I'm not going to fault Ohio State for it. The Buckeyes have a perfect blend of size, athleticism, shooting, ball-handling, and defense. Their seventh man (DeShaun Thomas) would be a starter on every other Big Ten team, and the best player on more than a handful. It's hard to envision any circumstance right now where they don't end up a #1 seed in March.
2. Purdue Boilermakers. They continue to impress me week after week with their play, but if you look at their schedule it's been kind of weak. Even their start in the Big Ten (4-0) can partially be attributed to poor competition (vs. Northwestern and Iowa, at Michigan and Penn State). This is a huge week for the Boilers, with trips to Minneapolis (vs. a upper division Big Ten squad) and Morgantown, WV (vs. an upper division Big East team). We'll know a lot more about the Boilers come Sunday.
3. Michigan State Spartans. Season-changing win? I'm not quite ready to go that far, but that's what the announcer on ESPN called it last night. Things certainly weren't going well in Sparty-land, and with 2:39 left in the second half against Wisconsin last night with Michigan State down seven it looked like things were going to continue to get worse. Maybe this is the win they needed to turn things around.
4. Wisconsin Badgers. An uncharacteristic late game collapse by a Bo Ryan team kept them from a huge road win last night at Michigan State, but even with that missed opportunity I think it's time to admit that Wisconsin belongs up with the contenders for the Big Ten crown. God it kills me to admit that. Bo Ryan must be some kind of wizard.
5. Illinois Fighting Illini. I'm still not quite buying into Illinois, mainly because they seem to turn the ball over at the worst times, they turn it over way too often, and Demetri McCamey is an asset for 38 minutes and then becomes a liability in the final two. They'll win their home games, lose their road games to good teams, end up a 5 seed, and be upset by Utah State or something.
6. Minnesota Gophers. Thursday's home game against Purdue maybe isn't a must win, but it's certainly a must compete. The Gophers have lost a lot of fans' confidence with lackluster play against poor teams and an understandably slow start. I think most fans are patient but anxious, and a blow out at home by the Boilers will send a lot of fans metaphorically home for the season. In any case, Sunday's match with Iowa is definitely a must-win.
7. Northwestern Wildcats. If their swiss cheese defense - worst in the conference in both scoring and shooting defense - doesn't keep them out of the NCAA Tournament, the ankle injury to John Shurna might. Despite scoring 24 points last time out against Indiana something isn't right - he's grabbed a total of zero rebounds in the last two games combined.
8. Penn State Nittany Lions. This isn't the first time Talor Battle has put the Nittany Lions on his back and nearly single-handedly won a game for Penn State over his four years there, so last night's win over Illinois isn't a huge shock. The interesting thing will be to see if it's more of an aberration (like the last 3 years) or if this mean's Penn State is really a contender for an at-large bid in March. Back-to-back wins over contending teams says they might be for real.
9. Michigan Wolverines. This is the team I'm having the hardest time ranking. They were looking like the top of the bottom, the kind of team that beats up on the teams below them, but can't quite compete with the top level teams and I was comfortable with that. Then they go and push one of the three or four best teams in the entire country, Kansas, to overtime. Add in their near-win over Syracuse earlier this year, and they could be better than we think. If they can hang with Ohio State when they come to Ann Arbor on Wednesday it may be time to start paying more attention here.
10. Iowa Hawkeyes. So far they're looking like a pesky team at home looking to finally grab an upset. This could be the week with Northwestern in town. Young guys, particularly freshmen Melsahn Basabe and Zack McCabae and sophomore Eric May, at least give Iowa hope for the future.
11. Indiana Hoosiers. I had high hopes for the Hoosiers as a sleeper coming into this year, but Maurice Creek is clearly not all the way healed and the rest of the talent is sub-par outside of Watford. Cody Zeller can't get to Bloomington fast enough. They have a rare chance to grab a Big 10 win this week with Michigan coming to town.
And of what heinous offense was Mbakwe guilty? Sending a message on facebook. FACEBOOK! Fucking facebook. He didn't attempt to bash in a door with an axe or stand outside a window with a boom box, he simply sent a message on facebook. Must have been a hell of a threatening message, no doubt? No, it was simply something along the lines of "I hope you are doing well." Now, I've looked and I've looked, but I'm having all kinds of trouble finding any kind of death threat in there, so unless this is some kind of zodiac killer code I'm thinking this was pretty innocuous.
Perhaps intent isn't part of the law, but it sure as hell should be part of the sentencing. Let the law do what the law do, but not taking all the facts into account on this is ridiculous at best, reckless at worst. Trevor Mbakwe, despite his physical attributes, is a kid. He's a kid. He made a mistake, as all kids inevitably do, and Joel Maturi is coming down on him as if he maced the vice president. I mean jesus christ it's not like he starting the Army of the Twelve Monkeys here. He sent an innocent message on a social media site which violating a restraining order against him. Whether it was a simple mistake in timing or simply a rebellious maneuver it shows more immaturity and irresponsibility than malice aforethought.
And now because of it, the great Joel Maturi is playing around with Mbakwe's future, and not for the first time. I get that you need to players to hold to a certain standard, and although I disagreed with what happened with Royce White I at least understood it, but what has happened to Mbakwe since he enrolled here is absolutely ridiculous and should really be the criminal act under investigation. Maturi needs to step back from the big picture once in a while and realize he's dealing with real people - kids, actually - and his decisions don't just affect the school, the team, and us fans, but the real people he deals with day to day.
I can only guess that if this indeed comes to pass as a suspension Mbakwe will be out of here, and who could blame him? At this point it has become apparent that Gopher athletic teams have zero chance of finding success as long as Maturi is still in power. If they grabbed a flux capacitor and brought back Bill Walsh and John Wooden to coach, he'd still find a way to fuck it all up.
Seriously, I'm one of those "don't really care about what kind of citizen the players are as long as we win" kind of guys, I'll admit that. But it's hard for me to see how even the most ardent believer in the character before winning philosophy can think this is justice.
A loss by just three, on the road against one of the best team's in the country, is definitely nothing to be ashamed of. If you look at the Gophers three Big Ten losses, all three to road teams and all three competitive games, you really don't have anything to worry about because they should be fine. I'm still a bit nervous because I don't think they've looked good and they should/could be playing better, but I can see why people could be optimistic. I don't really think we can evaluate this team until after Thursday's game, when they play Purdue at home. It will be their first time playing a Big Ten contender at home, and if they win we can all smile and say everything is going to be alright.
Of course, what is not alright is the play Tubby drew up at the end of that game against the Buckeyes. Gophers down three with 15 seconds to play and the ball, and a huge opportunity. So they run a play that consists of a single screen for Hoffarber, who, don't forget, is the only person on the team who can shoot and who everybody, including one of the best defensive teams in the country, knows is going to be the the guy they're going to run the play for. When Ohio State jumped the screen and Hoff wasn't open, nobody knew what to do because nobody was doing anything else. There was no other option on the play. It was a silly, ridiculous, and stupid play with no options other than the obvious, and no back-up plan after the Buckeyes predictably focused all their efforts on stopping Blake. Is everybody still sure that losing Devoe (heading to Oregon, BTW) isn't such a big deal?
Good final result, terrible final play. Moving on.....
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Cincinnati Bearcats. Every year, the Cincinnati vs. Xavier game is one of the most hotly contested games of the year. The "Crosstown Shootout" isn't as well known as some other rivalries, but that doesn't make it any less intense (including a double-OT thriller with multiple technicals and benches clearing last year). And lately, it's been dominated by Xavier, who had won the last three. Not this year, because the suddenly relevant Bearcats have done the old "addition by subtraction" routine, and are now 15-1 on the season after blowing out X by 20 (and losing to Nova on Sunday), despite the loss of super star Lance Stephenson to the NBA after last season. I guess he can't really have been that much of a star, if you really think about it.
2. Jeff Brooks. I've talked on here before about how Penn State missed every chance to get a signature - or even quality - win in their non-conference schedule and how that made their margin of error razor thin if they wanted to get Talor Battle into an NCAA Tournament before he graduated. An early road loss to Michigan made it look like they could forget it, but they picked up a very big win over the weekend against Michigan State that means they are still alive, and it's mainly thanks to Brooks, who had 17 points and 12 boards against Sparty, following up another double-double earlier in the week against Purdue. Brooks first three seasons at PSU were pretty nondescript, but he's taken this break-out senior thing to another level, averaging 14 points and 8 rebounds per game on the year and giving Battle a legitimate threat to take some pressure off of him. I mean, there's still pretty much no way they're going to make the NCAA Tournament, but at least they're trying.
3. Colorado Buffaloes. Colorado had been pegged as a bit of a sleeper coming into the year due to their two NBA-type players, Alec Burks and Cory Higgins, but they struggled a bit out of the gate with early losses to Georgia, San Francisco, and Harvard and it was starting to look like those two weren't going to be able to do enough to push Colorado to a bid. This weekend, however, they picked up a huge win, beating #8 Missouri 89-76 behind a combined 54 points and 18 rebounds from their two stars (who are both guards, by the way). The Big 12 should be good enough this year where if Colorado can beat everybody but Kansas at home - and Missouri was the next biggest obstacle - and beat the bad teams on the road they should be able to grab the program's first NCAA bid since Chauncey Billups was running around Boulder.
4. Georgia Bulldogs. Similar to Colorado, Georgia was another borderline tournament sleeper type team. And similarly to the Buffaloes, the Bulldogs didn't really get off to a great start. They didn't have any bad losses, but they took part in the Old Spice Classic and walked away with nothing more than a win over Manhattan after losing in OT to Notre Dame and getting dropped by Temple. Since then they've won nine straight, but there were no real good wins, and a few struggles against bad teams (1 pt win over Georgia Tech, 3 pt win over Mercer, 7 pt win over Eastern Kentucky) and were generally unimpressive. Well, they finally picked up their signature win on Saturday, knocking off the 11th ranked (though overrated) Kentucky Wildcats. And I'm going to tell you something: if you get a chance to watch Georgia, take it. Their small forward, Travis Leslie, is the kind of guy whose athleticism rivals and may surpass Rodney Williams. Plus he averages 14 points and 8 rebounds per game, and probably never gets pulled in crunch-time on the road against a nationally ranked team for a freshman.
5. Missouri State Bears. The Bears (coached by Cuonzo Martin, FYI) won a huge statement game last night, beating Wichita State in Wichita to move to 5-0 in the conference, now a game ahead of the Shockers and the Creighton Blue Jays - another team they've already beat on the road. In fact, the Bears also won at Northern Iowa, which means they've already traveled to, and beaten, three of the top 5-6 teams in the conference, so they are definitely in the driver's seat to win the Missouri Valley. Of course, it's starting to look more and more like the MVC is going to be a one-bid conference this year, so none of this really matters at all and the only thing that matters is who gets hot in March. Kind of anti-climactic and waste of time-y, if you ask me.
WHO SUCKED
1. Florida State Seminoles. Here is a list of team's Auburn has lost to this year: UNC-Asheville, Samford, Campbell, Jacksonville, Rutgers, South Florida, and Presbyterian. Only the South Florida game was on the road, which is why it is so shocking that Florida State, an NCAA Tournament caliber team, went to Auburn and lost to the Tigers this week, and then followed that up with an understandable but unfortunate loss at Virginia Tech. And all this coming on the heels of a fabulous upset win over Baylor. I think it's fairly safe to say nobody really knows what is going on with this team, other than that they play great defense and are putrid offensively. A real recipe for success.
2. Georgetown Hoyas. Losing to West Virginia isn't exactly the most embarrassing thing in the world, even if it is at home, but I'm putting the Hoyas here this week because doesn't it seem like they do this every single year? They start out hot and get themselves ranked inside or near the top 10, drop a bunch of games they should win in conference play but win enough to keep a relatively high ranking, and then get housed in the NCAA tournament. It really feels like they do this all the time to me, so I never really buy into the Hoyas. I will say that this year, rather than relying on a big, plodding center they have three very, very good guards, which is a much better recipe for success, but I think I've put G-Town in the same category as Kansas and Duke - other than an exception once in a while, they nearly always fail to perform to expectations in March.
3. David Akers. Excellent work, Akers. Way to have the worst game of your career in a the playoffs, in a game where your two missed kicks (from 41 and 34, distances that are almost automatic for him) absolutely made a massive difference in this game. It's very likely the Eagles win this game if he makes those two kicks. Instead we have to put up with the stupid Packers for another week, at least. Thanks Akers. You may now consider yourself an enemy of this blog. Make your time.
4. Butler Bulldogs. There are certain things that just can't happen when you're a mid-major trying to get a bid. One of the biggest is that you can't lose by over 20 to a conference foe who is not a contender for the league crown. So guess what Butler did? Yep, they got their clocks cleaned by Milwaukee, a team sitting at 8-9 overall with several ugly losses. So let's look at Butler. Right now the are 12-5, with an RPI of 23 and Strength of Schedule of 16. Wins over Florida State and Washington State are good, while the loss to Milwaukee and an earlier loss to Evansville are bad. Knowing that the SoS and RPI will go down as conference play continues, and knowing that Butler really doesn't have another chance at a big-time win (I don't think they're in bracket busters this year), they are very, very close to having to win out to grab at at-large. I wouldn't say they're quite there yet, but they'd do well to avoid more than 1 or 2 more losses.
5. Kansas City Chiefs. I don't even know who to blame here the most. Dwayne Bowe for not being a part of the offense (zero catches)? Matt Cassell for not even throwing to him (zero targets) and throwing three picks? Or Todd Haley for being unable to design a game plan which would find ways to get Bowe the ball, and, at the same time, when the passing game wasn't working he still managed to only give the ball to Jamaal Charles nine times. And don't forget the defense for surrendering 30 points to team known more for defense than offense. In any case, just a complete implosion by a team playing their first playoff game in like 80 years. Well done.
Honorable mention for awesomeness goes to the Seattle Seahawks. After getting down early it would have been easy to roll-over and die, but they fought back and ended up kicking the crap out of New Orleans. Although in retrospect we should have seen this coming - home team, massive underdog, not only did they get no respect, they got no respect in a "we need to change the rules because this team is too shitty to be in the playoffs" kind of no respect, and that's the worst kind. Very good win, and this run here by Marshawn Lynch is like whoa:
I decided to see how the Big Ten teams would look if we put them into a quadrant chart, using offensive and defensive efficiency as our metrics. Using the Big Ten average of these metrics as our axis, the further to the right a team is, the better they are on offense, and the higher towards the top they are, the better they are on defense.
So the top right quadrant are teams that are good on offense, good on defense. Call these the contenders. Solid teams with no real weaknesses.
The bottom right quadrant are teams that are good on offense, bad on defense. Call this the unknowns, because they could outscore a team on any given night due to their own firepower or if their opponent has a poor shooting night. This kind of team could upset anybody or go on a run at any time.
The top left quadrant are teams that are good on defense, bad on offense. Call these the defensively viable teams, because a team that plays solid defense is always dangerous.
The bottom left quadrant is teams that are bad on defense, bad on offense. Call these simply "the bad teams" because they are, in fact, really bad.
As a famous computer programmer once said, "Hold on to your butts."
Of course, he also got eaten by a velociraptor, and that's probably a good metaphor for what is likely to happen to the Gophers on Sunday in Columbus, because these guys have stomped on basically everybody, and the Gophers haven't looked good competent since Puerto Rico. I mean, really. They have no weaknesses.
Stats wise (via kenpom.com) they are scary. They are the #2 team in the country (behind Duke). They have the 3rd most efficient offense (behind Duke and Pitt), and the 2nd most efficient defense (behind Kansas). They don't turn the ball over (11th) while turning you over constantly (2nd). They don't let you get to the line (1st), grab a ton of offensive rebounds (24th), while never letting you get an offensive rebound (24th). They shoot very well (5th in effective FG%), both from 2 (56.2% - 8th) and three (39.9% - 22nd) and share the ball well (54th). The only weakness you can find in the stats is that they don't get to the line much (269th), and are only slightly above average at shooting free-throws (69.2%). They aren't the best at defending the three pointer (allow 33.1%, slightly better than the national average), but against a team like the Gophers will only one shooter, that doesn't matter?
So statswise things look bleak for the Gophers, but how about the eye test? Inside they have the size to deal with the Gophers' big men with Dallas Lauderdale and Jared Sullinger, with Lauderdale bringing the defense, Sullinger the offense, and both grabbing a shit-ton of rebounds. Lauderdale on his own would give them fits, but Sullinger is just so unbelievably good he could swing the balance of a game on his own. His stats are very similar to our own Trevor Mbakwe's, and they're built similarly, but the big difference between the two is footwork and technique. While Mbake's game is almost solely built around his strength and athletic ability, Sullinger has that plus great footwork, which leads to a lot of drop-steps into layups, and the ability to hit a jumper once in a while. I fully, fully expect this to be Mbakwe's worst statistical game this year, because I expect Sullinger to get him in foul trouble early and keep him there.
If that's not enough, their three wings - William Buford, David Lighty, and Jon Diebler - are offensive weapons as well. Diebler is the best shooter in the Big Ten, not only does he hit a high percentage (51% this year) but he also shoots at a high volume, and because of his height and athleticism (which still isn't great but is better than Hoffarber) he can get open more often, not to mention with all the attentions his teammates take away from him he has more chances to spot up. Meanwhile Lighty and Buford are essentially two mini-Evan Turners and clones of each other - they do it all. They can both handle the ball, both can drive, both can score inside, both can shoot from both three and mid-range, and both play excellent defense. Any team would be lucky to have one of these guys, and the Buckeyes have both.
And just in case you were hoping that their one question mark coming into the season (point guard play) might have developed into a weakness you can forget it. Freshman Aaron Craft has acclimated himself quickly, ranking third in the Big Ten in assists (4.9 per game) with a 2.5-1 assist-to-turnover ratio and shoots better than 50% from the floor. Yeah, they're just fine.
And if you're thinking they don't go very deep and only play seven guys so maybe getting somebody into foul trouble would help, you're wrong. First, as mentioned before, they don't really commit fouls. Only Buford and Craft have fouled out for OSU this year (once each), and neither Sullinger or Lauderdale have been in foul trouble much if at all. Second, even if somebody fouls out, they still have all those offensive weapons I mentioned above who can just step in. Third, I haven't even mentioned DeShaun Thomas, a highly regarded freshman who is averaging 11 points per game in just seventeen minutes and is looking like another Turner/Lighty/Buford type, so him playing more minutes probably isn't necessarily a good thing.
Lastly, if you're hoping simply to catch the Buckeyes napping and not giving a full effort, Iowa already did that in their last game, leading into the second half, and Ohio State pulled out the win so I wouldn't expect them to come out slowly again, especially since this time they are playing at home.
If this all makes it sound hopeless that's because it is. The Gopher defense isn't good enough to handle all Ohio State can throw at them, and I can't figure out how the Gophers are going to score any points against one of the toughest defenses in college ball, especially one whose only weakness is three-point shooting, something Minnesota can't exploit. The first unit may hang in there, but the second unit is going to get absolutely destroyed.
Do you know what tomorrow is? It's the start of the PGA Season, and I'm fired up. But not nearly as fired up as our golf writer here at DWG, Grandslam, who voluntarily wrote up a season preview without even being asked. How do I have a golf writer and not a hockey writer, you ask? Because hockey is super gay!
It’s the most wonderful time of the year again, and NO, I’m not talking about the holidays.The start of the 2011 PGA Tour season is right around the corner.
The 2010 season was a season that will soon not be forgotten due to the craziness of certain events.There are certain things we can count on every year like bad weather at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, Phil contending at Augusta, and John Daly having a mental breakdown on the golf course.In 2010 there was as much shock value in certain events as there would be for a Minnesota Timberwolves victory.Other than Phil’s victory at The Masters, who would have correctly picked the other three major winners in McDowell,Oosthuizen, and Kaymer?Who could forget the collapse of Dustin Johnson in the final round of the U.S. Open?More importantly, who can forget what happened to Dustin Johnson on the 72nd hole at the PGA Championship.Matt Kuchar was this year’s leading money winner, really?How about team USA’s near improbable comeback at the Ryder Cup?
The 2010 PGA Tour season was full of headlines with maybe the story of the year being Tiger Woods.No majors, not a single worldwide victory, MC’s and WD’s.Nobody could have imagined that when Tiger announced he would return at Augusta that we would see the season we did from the once invisible, FORMER#1 player in the world.
We can only hope that the 2011 PGA Tour season will be as entertaining and unpredictable as the year before.I am extremely excited for the majors this year if they are anything like last year.Just a few years ago when the question of, who’s the best player to not win a major came up, the list of those players were short.In 2011, with the year Tiger had in 2010 and the emergence of the “young guns”, that list may be as large as ever with the likes of….
·Dustin Johnson
·Rickie Fowler (0 PGA Tour wins)
·Paul Casey
·Ian Poulter
·Nick Watney
·Steve Stricker
·Hunter Mahan
·Luke Donald
This is just a few of the players that could be on the unofficial list, but let’s not forget about the #1 player in the world, Lee Westwood.
Last year, we had a huge surprise with the season that Matt Kuchar had leading the PGA Tour in earnings as well as leading the tour in scoring average.A story like this is extremely hard to ever project, however I am going to give you two guys that could be this year’s Matt Kuchar.Jason Day and Jeff Overton are two guys that I could see having huge years.Jason Day got his first career PGA Tour win last year and finished 8th in the Fed Ex Cup, while Overton, although still without a victory had a hand full of runner-up finishes as well as being a key contributor for Team USA in the Ryder Cup.
Last year we had a guy in the name of Louis Oosthuizen who shocked nearly everyone in the golf world with his win at the British Open.This year’s Louis Oosthuizen is another guy that many have not heard of, and that’s the up and coming South African Charl Schwartzel who will win his first major this year.
I’m going to give you two guys to watch for in the 2011 season, one from the PGA Tour and the other from the European Tour.The man on the PGA Tour you need to keep your eye out for is Jamie Lovemark.Lovemark was a college standout at USC and dominated the Nationwide Tour last becoming the youngest player to ever finish #1 on that tour’s money list.Lovemark nearly won in his first month as a pro, only to lose in a playoff.I look for big things out of this rookie this year.
The player to watch out for on the European Tour is player that almost no one has heard of and his name is Matteo Manassero.Some may recognize the name as Manassero is the youngest player to even make the cut in The Masters.However the reason you need to keep an eye out for this kid is the fact that he got his first career win at the age of 17 last fall, he won’t even turn 18 until later next spring.We probably won’t see much of Manassero in the states next year, but in time we will see him in all the big events.
Finally my predictions for the 2011 PGA Tour season are as follows….
·Rookie of the Year, Jamie Lovemark
·Comeback player of the year, Tiger Woods (how could it not be?)
·Surprise player of the year, David Duval, he will be back in the winner’s circle in 2011
Reading through the comments on the gopherhole and star tribune's website, it seemed the majority of fans thought the loss of Devoe Joseph, confirmed to be leaving the program, wasn't that big a deal, no big loss, and that the team might even be better off without him. I hope tonight's game showed everyone how ludicrous that line of thinking is, because he was desperately needed tonight.
Sure, when the offense is running smoothly, and the set plays and motion are working, he can be a bit of a ballstop, and he's never going to win any defensive awards, this is all true. But when the opposing defense packs into a tight zone, daring you to shoot because you only have one reliable shooter, you need a guy like Devoe. When you want to run a deep bench, but your second line of guards is made up of three freshman, you need a guy like Devoe. And most importantly, when the plays aren't working, and nobody can get open, you need somebody who can get their own shot, and now the Gophers have as many players capable of that as I have here on my couch. Blake Hoffarber can shoot, but he doesn't have the athleticism to shake a defender one on one. Rodney Williams is athletic as hell (how awesome was that dunk in the second half by the way) but doesn't have the ball skills to get free, and Al Nolen isn't a good enough shooter. In short, this teams needs Devoe.
But whats done is done, and whats gone is gone. I'll hold any further Devoe thoughts for if/when more information is known, however, because despite this ugly, ugly win there is one guy who deserves an amazing amount of credit for his performance tonight, and that is the often maligned Al Nolen. Not to take anything away from Trevor Mbakwe, whose 11 pt, 16 rebound, 5 block night was the best statline, and who had several blocks that should end up on Sportscenter as well as playing great defense in holding Christian Watford to just four points, but this was Al's night.
His line is good: 14 points, 6 rebounds, 4 assists, and 4 steals with 2 turnovers (and those both game in first few minutes), but he was much more than that tonight. He was leader this team needs, the leader a senior point guard can be, and his effort and play in the second made me fall in love with him, and I've been huge Nolen detractor in the past.
You can never fault his effort or his defense, and those were full on display again tonight, as he pestered Verdell Jones from end to end, harassing him into several turnovers and generally taking him off his game, but that's not what really set him apart this evening. What he did was take his two biggest weaknesses - shooting, and driving into the lane without a plan - and turned them into strengths.
He was just 1-2 from three, and he still (thankfully) doesn't look for that shot often because he knows it's not something he excels at, but the one he did hit was huge. It gave the Gophers a 46-44 lead, and came right after Indiana had retaken the lead and stemmed some of the Gophers momentum. His miss was a very good shot, just a little strong and off the back iron, but more than anything, his reaction showed he was confident and it was going in, and so was I. As long as he has the confidence to shoot when open he can help keep defenses more honest, and he'll make enough of them where he isn't a liability.
The most impressive part of night, however, was his ability to score in the lane. He's never been able to not get to the lane because he is so quick, but tonight, rather than looking like he wasn't sure what he was going to do with the ball when he got there, he attacked the basket. He even had a move at one point that looked suspiciously like Dr. J's rock the baby move, and was far more successful than the Dream Shake Jeremiah Rivers tried at one point (which missed). He'll never be a great shooter or a great scorer, but he completely controlled the game on the offensive end despite taking just 8 shots and, as per usual, controlled the game on the defensive end as well.
So was it an ugly win? Yes. Should we be happy with it overall? Probably not, but a win is a win, they needed this one, and they got it. More importantly, we may have seen a new Al Nolen, one whose sudden improvement rivals what happened to Eric Harris from his junior to his senior year. It remains to be seen if this new style of play will keep up or was just a blip, but, if you couldn't tell, I'm thrilled. Keep it up, Al. Keep it up.
Coming into this year I thought the Indiana Hoosiers had a chance to surprise some people. They certainly have some talent: Christian Watford is one of the best forwards in the league, and he, guards Maurice Creek and Jordan Hulls, and forward Derek Elston were all top 100 recruits two seasons ago. Junior Verdell Jones was a top 150 guy when he came out as well, as was freshman guard Will Sheehey. So, at least on paper, there is some talent here. For whatever reason, however, it just hasn't given stellar results.
Part of the problem stems from last year's unfortunate injury to Creek, who blew out his knee in the 12th game of his freshman year and was out for the season. Prior to that point, Creek had been averaging 16.4 points per game, including a 31 point outburst against Kentucky. Coming back this year, it seems he's not all the way back, whether it's physical or mental I don't know, because his scoring is way down at just 8.7 per game, and every other statistic is worse this season. Maybe the biggest clue something is still wrong is his steals, which have dropped from 1.4 per game last year to a grand total of 3 so far this year in 15 games. That sucks, and it's unfortunate for him, and it's a big reason the Hoosiers haven't been able to improve this year.
Not to say there isn't anybody putting up numbers here, because Christian Watford is a complete beast, and he's very good at scoring the basketball (not counting the Penn State game). He leads the team in scoring at 17.2 per game, helped out quite a bit by an ability to get to the line (second in the conference with 99 attempts) and make his shots when he gets there (83%). And although he mainly gets his points inside and mid-range, he can also hit the three-pointer when he's left open, hitting 16 of 28 attempts this year (42%).
Outside of Watford there isn't anybody who is a consistent threat. Verdell Jones is the second leading scorer at 12.2 per game, but he's just as likely to score in single-digits as double (50% of each so far this year). Behind them there are several guys who chip in a few per game, although the guys to really watch are point guard Jordan Hulls and wing Victor Oladipo, both of whom have scored in double figures in each of Indiana's last three games.
The place where the Gophers can really get some points is, and this seems to be a common theme, in the paint. Although Watford is a good rebounder (5.5 per game), nobody else on the team grabs more than 4.2 boards per game, and the only other players on the roster as tall as him at 6-8 are Elston, Bobby Capobianco and Tom Pritchard, and Pritchard and Capobianco rarely play and Elston's rarely makes his presence known on the court.
So, once again, the best way to win will be to get the ball into Sampson, Mbakwe, and Iverson and letting them go to work. Not only is that the team's best way to score, but it will also help mitigate the loss of Devoe Joseph, who at present time is still on the team but won't be playing for an indefinite period of time. I'll have more to say on this subject if he indeed ends up transferring, but for now let's just say he'll be a loss, but not a huge loss.
The most likely way the Gophers lose this one is also a familiar story, and that is once again playing poor defense. Indiana hasn't been able to put together a good game against a good team, but overall they are a good shooting team. They make 38.5% of their three-pointers, 41st in the country, and 54.5% of their two-pointers, which ranks 19th. They've compiled those numbers against some very bad teams and haven't really come close to knocking off a quality opponent. With the Gophers tendency to let teams get wide open looks, that could easily change tonight at Williams.
1. Purdue Boilermakers. Robbie Hummel's injury sucked for him and Purdue fans, but fans of every other school, both in the Big Ten and nationally, should be grateful because this team is incredibly good without him, and might legitimately have been unstoppable with him. JaJuan Johnson and E'Twaun Moore are both stars, and all the role players fit around them perfectly. White shooter guy? Ryne Smith. Athletic wing who can defend well? Kelsey Barlow. Next Brian Cardinal/Chris Kramer? D.J. Byrd. Lighting quick PG? Lewis Jackson. They beat Michigan on the road and Northwestern at home, and while those might not sound like great wins they did it in completely dominating fashion. When Hummel went down it seems Purdue was written off as a national title contender, but after seeing them play this week I'd put them right back on the list.
2. Washington Huskies. If Washington was going to stumble on their way to a nearly inevitable Pac-10 crown this would have been the week. Going into to Los Angeles to play the two L.A. teams is easily their most difficult road trip, but Washington managed to escape with a 2-0 record by beating USC in overtime and then knocking off UCLA with ease. The Huskies probably don't have enough size to be a real threat to make the final four, but they play at one of the fastest paces in the country (9th) and combine that with being very efficient on the offensive end (6th), which means they score a ton of points (3rd at 89.1 per game). That, along with their very good guards, make them a threat to pull off some upsets along the way, and they should cruise to a Pac-10 title, especially after this week's 2-0 start.
3. St. Johns Red Storm. I had said St. Johns was a bit of a sleeper in the Big East, and then they sucked. They lost back-to-back games against crappy Fordham and crappy St. Bonnies, and looked dead in the water. Well, like Jesus they're back, opening up their Big East schedule with two road wins, and impressive wins at that. First they beat West Virginia and then followed that up by taking down Providence - not a tournament team, but a team that was 11-3 coming into the game so they aren't exactly a piece of cake. This team still lines up well to be a sleeper: good guards, balanced scoring, good depth, senior leadership. Now they're finally starting to play like it.
4. Iowa State Cyclones. I would like to call your attention to Iowa State, because nobody is paying any attention to them. After going to Virginia and beating the Cavs this week, the same team that killed the Gophers here don't forget, the Cyclones are now 11-2. Now, the Virginia win is one of the only decent wins they've had, along with wins over Iowa and Creighton, and neither loss is particularly good (to Northern Iowa and Cal, neither a likely tournament team) so it's not like they're exactly lined up well for an NCAA bid or anything, but after the last few nightmarish seasons in Ames this has got to feel pretty freakin' good for fans of that program. Hoiberg seemingly has them moving in the right direction.
5. Stanford chick basketball. Thank fucking god. If I had to hear about that UCONN women's team streak one more time I was going to scream. Nobody cares, stop shoving it down my throat ESPN jerks. I don't remotely care enough about women's sports to hate a team anywhere near as much as I hated that UCONN team. Thank god our long national nightmare is finally over.
WHO SUCKED
1. Louisville Cardinals. When you're ranked #20 in the country you're not supposed to get blown out at home, and when you're Louisville, you're not supposed to get blown out at home by Kentucky, so Friday's 78-63 loss to the Wildcats was a nice big double oof. So what this means is that Louisville is ranked #20 on the strength of two notable wins: over a Butler team who has been exposed as terribly overrated, and against UNLV, who followed up that game by losing to Santa Barbara. The other impressive part of Louisville's resume right now is they only have two losses: this blowout at home and an earlier home loss vs. Drexel. So I guess what I'm saying is we probably shouldn't start printing up NCAA Tournament tickets for Louisville family and friends just yet.
2. Mississippi State Bulldogs. Holy crap is this team bad, and I don't think it has anything to do with Renardo Sidney kicking his teammates asses or getting free cars. They got smoked this week by St. Mary's, who joins Washington State, Virginia Tech, and Hawaii as teams that have absolutely smoked the Bulldogs, who also have losses to Florida Atlantic and East Tennessee State this year. They're just awful. I don't even know why, they were supposed to be the favorite for the SEC East title. Or West. Whichever division they're in that I'm not looking up. Maybe things will turn around when Dee Bost comes off his suspension, but by then Sidney may have already beaten up the entire team.
3. Siena Saints. So I know the Saints lost three very good players and their coach off last year's team, but holy crapolavich have they fallen far. They came into the week at 4-6 with some pretty terrible losses, but may have bottomed out this week by losing to crappy St. Bonaventure and crappier Saint Joseph's. With two excellent players back - Clarence Jackson and Ryan Rossiter - the Saints were supposed to be a contender for the MAAC crown once again. Instead they're an absolute disaster of gopher football-ish proportions. Yeah.
4. Big Ten Football. You know how there are a bunch of people in the world who always say stuff like "The Big Ten is too slow" and "The Big Ten sucks at football"? Well, yeah..
5. Washington State Cougars. Remember how up above there I was talking about how the LA trip went really well for Washington? Well the opposite is true for Washington State, who dropped both games. With their wins over Gonzaga and Baylor and a competitive loss against Kansas State the Cougars were looking like a possible sleeper in the Pac-10. With one of the best scorers in the country in Klay Thompson and another guard who can light it up from deep in Faisal Aden along with a solid group of big men, WSU looked really good for most of this year. Well fart on that.
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