Wednesday, March 3, 2010
That was the Most Pathetic Thing I Have Ever Seen.
At least we don't have to worry about sweating on Selection Sunday anymore. I know I said I was anticipating a loss, but I couldn't have predicted this. Absolutely pathetic in every possible way. I don't know what was worse, the lay-up line they gave Michigan, the complete lack of anything resembling defensive pressure by the Gophers, or the stagnant offense. Also, can anybody tell me if Tubby ever went back to the zone, or was the one dunk allowed when Sims slipped behind the zone so damaging that he stayed in the man-to-man the entire game despite the fact that there wasn't a single Gopher who could cover any single Wolverine the entire game? I don't know, because at the 15 minute mark of the second half I put my DVR on x3 mode and never saw a reason to stop as the Michigan side of the score kept rising.
Utter and complete humiliation, and everybody - with the possible exception of Damian Johnson - is to blame. Obviously in my tenure as a Gopher fan I've seen bad defeats. I've been let down, disappointed, and even embarrassed at times, but I believe this is the first time I've been ashamed. Zero effort, poor preparation, no hustle or defense at all, and no adjustments. If there were a way to dismiss the entire team and coaching staff and start over right now, I'd be all for it.
But if the Gophers don't seem to care about getting to the NCAA Tournament I don't see why I should, so let's just move on. It's still March, and if you care about basketball there is still a lot to pay attention to (not to mention Spring Training is getting going). Cincinnati lost a game last night that knocked them off the bubble with the Gophers (possible NIT match-up?), while Florida couldn't quite pull off the upset against Vanderbilt. That loss doesn't kill them, but it would have been very helpful to get.
And congrats to UTEP, who beat Marshall last night and clinched their first Conference USA Championship, which should be good enough to clinch an NCAA bid as well. Clemson likely also punched their ticket by knocking off Georgia Tech, as did Marquette with their win over Louisville. Meanwhile, Illinois joined the Gophers in their efforts to get the Big Ten just four bids. Good work, gents!
Plenty of action going on today, including a couple of monster games involving four good teams: Kansas State @ Kansas and Maryland @ Duke. Of course, there are also a couple conference tournaments kicking off again today, and since you brought it up:
ATLANTIC SUN: The A-Sun is a lower tier conference which seems even lower because outside of Belmont none of the team's are really recognizable: Jacksonville? Lipscomb? Kennesaw State? And they are currently in a state of flux with new additions South Carolina Upstate and Florida Gulf Coast - seems like a really geographically specific conference.
FAVORITE: Belmont. There is actually a four-way tie at the top of the standings with Belmont, Campbell, Lipscomb, and Jacksonville, but I give the nod to Belmont because they have the highest ranking by Ken Pomeroy's numbers (#131) and rank in the top 170 in both offensive and defensive efficiency - the only team in the conference to do so.
SLEEPER: Lipscomb. They swept Belmont and split against the other contenders, and that's good enough for me. Plus, they rank in the top 80 in offensive efficiency, the only A-Sun team to rank that high in anything.
W's PICK: Belmont. They seem to always play tough and pushed Duke to the limit in the tournament last year, not to mention a near-upset in the regular season of Tennessee a couple of years ago.
PATRIOT LEAGUE: The Patriot ranks even worse than the A-Sun, coming in 27th out of 33 in conference ratings at Kenpom.com, but is more fun because I read John Feinstein's book about it (The Last Amateurs) a few years ago, which highlighted that this is the kind of conference where a star player has to drop off the team because he needs more time to work on his Biochem Doctorate. I don't condone that kind of quitting or having your priorities that out of whack, but it was a fun book.
FAVORITE: Lehigh. They won the regular season crown at 10-4, and Snacks has a Lehigh Hooded Sweatshirt for some reason so he could always where that when he goes to the bar to watch the play-in game.
SLEEPER: Navy. I always think team's that play a radically different style from the rest of the conference are dangerous, and Navy qualifies with a up-tempo game that ranked 14th fastest in the country when only one other team in the Patriot ranked in the top 100, even if they don't play any defense (DEf = 286th). But Navy did sweep Lehigh and they have the conference's top scorer in Chris Harris.
W's PICK: Bucknell. These team's are all terrible, so it comes down to who gets hot and Bucknell has won five of their last six. Plus, they are at least kind of a name school (Kansas = hi).
TONIGHT'S BUBBLE GAMES
Temple @ St. Louis - The Billikens need to keep winning. They are probably all the way out barring a run all the way to the A-10 final, but knocking off a RPI Top 20 team would help.
Wake Forest @ Florida State - Both teams could use this game, but FSU needs it to get a bid while Wake needs it to stop their losing streak (they're almost certainly in already).
UCONN @ Notre Dame - Not quite an elimination game, since I think even the loser can still get into the tournament, but the winner takes a big step forward.
Charlotte @ Rhode Island - A true bubble elimination game right here.
NC State @ Virginia Tech - Va Tech is in "can't lose another game" mode.
Miss State @ Auburn - I think the Bulldogs are in pretty good shape, but a loss to Auburn would put that all in jeopardy.
Memphis @ UAB - Another elimination game - certainly for Memphis, probably for UAB.
Colorado State @ San Diego State. SDSU is another team in "can't lose" mode.
I also want to mention that this post is the first time I've used the "NIT" post label in two years. That's fairly depressing. Although it brings me to a good question - which is more prestigious, the CBI or the CIT?
Utter and complete humiliation, and everybody - with the possible exception of Damian Johnson - is to blame. Obviously in my tenure as a Gopher fan I've seen bad defeats. I've been let down, disappointed, and even embarrassed at times, but I believe this is the first time I've been ashamed. Zero effort, poor preparation, no hustle or defense at all, and no adjustments. If there were a way to dismiss the entire team and coaching staff and start over right now, I'd be all for it.
But if the Gophers don't seem to care about getting to the NCAA Tournament I don't see why I should, so let's just move on. It's still March, and if you care about basketball there is still a lot to pay attention to (not to mention Spring Training is getting going). Cincinnati lost a game last night that knocked them off the bubble with the Gophers (possible NIT match-up?), while Florida couldn't quite pull off the upset against Vanderbilt. That loss doesn't kill them, but it would have been very helpful to get.
And congrats to UTEP, who beat Marshall last night and clinched their first Conference USA Championship, which should be good enough to clinch an NCAA bid as well. Clemson likely also punched their ticket by knocking off Georgia Tech, as did Marquette with their win over Louisville. Meanwhile, Illinois joined the Gophers in their efforts to get the Big Ten just four bids. Good work, gents!
Plenty of action going on today, including a couple of monster games involving four good teams: Kansas State @ Kansas and Maryland @ Duke. Of course, there are also a couple conference tournaments kicking off again today, and since you brought it up:
ATLANTIC SUN: The A-Sun is a lower tier conference which seems even lower because outside of Belmont none of the team's are really recognizable: Jacksonville? Lipscomb? Kennesaw State? And they are currently in a state of flux with new additions South Carolina Upstate and Florida Gulf Coast - seems like a really geographically specific conference.
FAVORITE: Belmont. There is actually a four-way tie at the top of the standings with Belmont, Campbell, Lipscomb, and Jacksonville, but I give the nod to Belmont because they have the highest ranking by Ken Pomeroy's numbers (#131) and rank in the top 170 in both offensive and defensive efficiency - the only team in the conference to do so.
SLEEPER: Lipscomb. They swept Belmont and split against the other contenders, and that's good enough for me. Plus, they rank in the top 80 in offensive efficiency, the only A-Sun team to rank that high in anything.
W's PICK: Belmont. They seem to always play tough and pushed Duke to the limit in the tournament last year, not to mention a near-upset in the regular season of Tennessee a couple of years ago.
PATRIOT LEAGUE: The Patriot ranks even worse than the A-Sun, coming in 27th out of 33 in conference ratings at Kenpom.com, but is more fun because I read John Feinstein's book about it (The Last Amateurs) a few years ago, which highlighted that this is the kind of conference where a star player has to drop off the team because he needs more time to work on his Biochem Doctorate. I don't condone that kind of quitting or having your priorities that out of whack, but it was a fun book.
FAVORITE: Lehigh. They won the regular season crown at 10-4, and Snacks has a Lehigh Hooded Sweatshirt for some reason so he could always where that when he goes to the bar to watch the play-in game.
SLEEPER: Navy. I always think team's that play a radically different style from the rest of the conference are dangerous, and Navy qualifies with a up-tempo game that ranked 14th fastest in the country when only one other team in the Patriot ranked in the top 100, even if they don't play any defense (DEf = 286th). But Navy did sweep Lehigh and they have the conference's top scorer in Chris Harris.
W's PICK: Bucknell. These team's are all terrible, so it comes down to who gets hot and Bucknell has won five of their last six. Plus, they are at least kind of a name school (Kansas = hi).
TONIGHT'S BUBBLE GAMES
Temple @ St. Louis - The Billikens need to keep winning. They are probably all the way out barring a run all the way to the A-10 final, but knocking off a RPI Top 20 team would help.
Wake Forest @ Florida State - Both teams could use this game, but FSU needs it to get a bid while Wake needs it to stop their losing streak (they're almost certainly in already).
UCONN @ Notre Dame - Not quite an elimination game, since I think even the loser can still get into the tournament, but the winner takes a big step forward.
Charlotte @ Rhode Island - A true bubble elimination game right here.
NC State @ Virginia Tech - Va Tech is in "can't lose another game" mode.
Miss State @ Auburn - I think the Bulldogs are in pretty good shape, but a loss to Auburn would put that all in jeopardy.
Memphis @ UAB - Another elimination game - certainly for Memphis, probably for UAB.
Colorado State @ San Diego State. SDSU is another team in "can't lose" mode.
I also want to mention that this post is the first time I've used the "NIT" post label in two years. That's fairly depressing. Although it brings me to a good question - which is more prestigious, the CBI or the CIT?
Tuesday, March 2, 2010
Welcome to March
Yep, it's the best time of the year folks - March. And although everybody knows about and loves the big tournament, I am almost as entertained by all the conference tournaments going on as well, and they start this week - today, actually. As I do every year, I'm going to run them down for you with some mini-previews - mini-previews I'm pretty sure nobody reads, but I don't really care that much about you anyway. I like doing it, and I'm kind of in charge around here, so let's get to it. And if you're looking for a Michigan preview, it's in this post I put up yesterday.
These tournaments kick-off today:
OHIO VALLEY: It seems like Murray State has dominated this conference over the past couple of decades dating all the way back to Popeye Jones and his Shrek-like ears and this year is no exception. It's also one of the slowest paced and most deliberate conferences around, with all but the 1-15 Tennessee-Martin squad ranking in the bottom 50% of the nation in terms of tempo. Also known as Yawn City.
FAVORITE: Murray State. They ripped through the league this year at 17-1 and were 24-3 overall and actually have people talking about them in consideration for an at-large bid even though their best non-conference win was over East Tennessee State. Once again, most people are morons.
SLEEPER: Morehead State. They won this thing last year (and won the play-in game in the tourney), they were the only team to beat Murray in conference play this year, and they have future NBA second-round pick Kenneth Faried.
W's PICK: Morehead State. More experience, and I think Murry State is a bit overrated this year.
BIG SOUTH: One of the worst conferences in the Country, nobody can score the basketball in the Big South. The best squad in terms of offensive efficiency, Coastal Carolina, was no better
FAVORITE: Coastal Carolina.
SLEEPER: Radford. It's not easy to find a sleeper in a conference this bad, and as tempting as VMI is to pick due to their crazy style of play (#1 tempo, #347 defense) they are just not good enough this year, so I'm going with Radford. They have the best non-conference win out of anybody in the Big South (over George Mason), they already beat Coastal Carolina once, the have the likely conference POY in Artsiom Parakhouski, and they are in second place. Good enough for me.
W's PICK: Radford. I'm not picking a team called the Chanticleers that wears teal, so Radford gets the pick by default.
HORIZON: Same situation in the Horizon that we've had the last several years - Butler is the class of the league and the only one who will get an at-large bid if they need one. If the Bulldogs go the distance and win the Horizon crown it opens up a bid for one lucky bubble team. If they get knocked off, somebody like is going to be looking at an NIT berth.
FAVORITE: Butler.
SLEEPER: Detroit. They aren't the second-place team, or even third, fourth, or so on. They are actually in 7th and were just 9-9 in the Horizon, but they are dangerous. They are an experienced, talented team (with transfers from Indiana Eli Holman and Xavier Keeling) and they gave Butler all they could handle, losing by just two (in overtime) and five in their two meetings.
W's PICK: Butler. They are so far above and beyond everyone else in this conference they can walk their way to the championship.
BUBBLE WATCH
Only one game affecting the bubble last night (although if Texas hadn't pulled it out against Oklahoma we my have found the Longhorns suddenly questioning their credentials) and that was Utah State against Fresno, and the Aggies destroyed them by about 40. Utah State doesn't have a great profile, but they've won 14 in a row and have a nice win over BYU. With only one regular season game left (against New Mexico State) at this point Gopher fans have two things to root for, either an Aggie loss in the final game or early in the WAC tournament which would knock them out of at-large consideration or that they win the tournament. If USU gets all the way to the championship and then loses, I have a feeling they are in - which obviously knocks another bubble team out.
Tonight's Bubble Games (along with the Gophers/Michigan, which is again previewed right here):
Illinois @ Ohio State - Despite the 10-6 conference record the Illini are still shaky. With just this game and then a home tilt against Wisconsin left they probably need to get one more win.
Villanova @ Cincinnati - The Bearcats are the opposite of Illinois with a nice non-conference profile but have struggled in the Big East. This chance, at home, to grab a big-time win can't be squandered.
Vanderbilt @ Florida - The Gators are in pretty good shape, but a loss to Georgia last week put them back in question mark status. Beating Vandy will probably lock up the bid.
UTEP @ Marshall - Thanks to a strong run through C-USA, the Miners are in good shape. They can't afford more than maybe one more loss and Marshall is a tough team, so this is a big one.
South Florida @ DePaul - USF isn't even in ESPN's Bubble Watch right now, but if they win this and then knock off UCONN at home on Saturday that gets them to 9-9 in the Big East with wins over UCONN, Georgetown (road), and Pitt with only one really bad loss (Central Michigan). If that happens, they become an at-large threat depending on their Big East tournament performance.
Georgia Tech @ Clemson - Both teams are in good shape, so instead of an elimination game this more like a "win and you've guaranteed yourself a bid" game.
Louisville @ Marquette - Pretty much the same as above
But really, all that matters right now is this damn Gopher game tonight. I'm peeing in my pants scared right now. Please don't hurt me again Manny.
These tournaments kick-off today:
OHIO VALLEY: It seems like Murray State has dominated this conference over the past couple of decades dating all the way back to Popeye Jones and his Shrek-like ears and this year is no exception. It's also one of the slowest paced and most deliberate conferences around, with all but the 1-15 Tennessee-Martin squad ranking in the bottom 50% of the nation in terms of tempo. Also known as Yawn City.
FAVORITE: Murray State. They ripped through the league this year at 17-1 and were 24-3 overall and actually have people talking about them in consideration for an at-large bid even though their best non-conference win was over East Tennessee State. Once again, most people are morons.
SLEEPER: Morehead State. They won this thing last year (and won the play-in game in the tourney), they were the only team to beat Murray in conference play this year, and they have future NBA second-round pick Kenneth Faried.
W's PICK: Morehead State. More experience, and I think Murry State is a bit overrated this year.
BIG SOUTH: One of the worst conferences in the Country, nobody can score the basketball in the Big South. The best squad in terms of offensive efficiency, Coastal Carolina, was no better
FAVORITE: Coastal Carolina.
SLEEPER: Radford. It's not easy to find a sleeper in a conference this bad, and as tempting as VMI is to pick due to their crazy style of play (#1 tempo, #347 defense) they are just not good enough this year, so I'm going with Radford. They have the best non-conference win out of anybody in the Big South (over George Mason), they already beat Coastal Carolina once, the have the likely conference POY in Artsiom Parakhouski, and they are in second place. Good enough for me.
W's PICK: Radford. I'm not picking a team called the Chanticleers that wears teal, so Radford gets the pick by default.
HORIZON: Same situation in the Horizon that we've had the last several years - Butler is the class of the league and the only one who will get an at-large bid if they need one. If the Bulldogs go the distance and win the Horizon crown it opens up a bid for one lucky bubble team. If they get knocked off, somebody like is going to be looking at an NIT berth.
FAVORITE: Butler.
SLEEPER: Detroit. They aren't the second-place team, or even third, fourth, or so on. They are actually in 7th and were just 9-9 in the Horizon, but they are dangerous. They are an experienced, talented team (with transfers from Indiana Eli Holman and Xavier Keeling) and they gave Butler all they could handle, losing by just two (in overtime) and five in their two meetings.
W's PICK: Butler. They are so far above and beyond everyone else in this conference they can walk their way to the championship.
BUBBLE WATCH
Only one game affecting the bubble last night (although if Texas hadn't pulled it out against Oklahoma we my have found the Longhorns suddenly questioning their credentials) and that was Utah State against Fresno, and the Aggies destroyed them by about 40. Utah State doesn't have a great profile, but they've won 14 in a row and have a nice win over BYU. With only one regular season game left (against New Mexico State) at this point Gopher fans have two things to root for, either an Aggie loss in the final game or early in the WAC tournament which would knock them out of at-large consideration or that they win the tournament. If USU gets all the way to the championship and then loses, I have a feeling they are in - which obviously knocks another bubble team out.
Tonight's Bubble Games (along with the Gophers/Michigan, which is again previewed right here):
Illinois @ Ohio State - Despite the 10-6 conference record the Illini are still shaky. With just this game and then a home tilt against Wisconsin left they probably need to get one more win.
Villanova @ Cincinnati - The Bearcats are the opposite of Illinois with a nice non-conference profile but have struggled in the Big East. This chance, at home, to grab a big-time win can't be squandered.
Vanderbilt @ Florida - The Gators are in pretty good shape, but a loss to Georgia last week put them back in question mark status. Beating Vandy will probably lock up the bid.
UTEP @ Marshall - Thanks to a strong run through C-USA, the Miners are in good shape. They can't afford more than maybe one more loss and Marshall is a tough team, so this is a big one.
South Florida @ DePaul - USF isn't even in ESPN's Bubble Watch right now, but if they win this and then knock off UCONN at home on Saturday that gets them to 9-9 in the Big East with wins over UCONN, Georgetown (road), and Pitt with only one really bad loss (Central Michigan). If that happens, they become an at-large threat depending on their Big East tournament performance.
Georgia Tech @ Clemson - Both teams are in good shape, so instead of an elimination game this more like a "win and you've guaranteed yourself a bid" game.
Louisville @ Marquette - Pretty much the same as above
But really, all that matters right now is this damn Gopher game tonight. I'm peeing in my pants scared right now. Please don't hurt me again Manny.
Monday, March 1, 2010
I am terrified to write this preview
Yes, I am terrified. The Gopher win over Illinois this weekend did just enough to get them back into bubble talks, and with two "easy" games left - at Michigan and vs. Iowa - things should be looking in decent shape for them to stay in consideration.
But my entire Minnesota rooting life has conditioned me to expect the worst and I am nearly certain they will lose one of these two games. Will they win the "tougher" one and beat Michigan just to drop the "easy" game and the end of the schedule? Or will they just drop this first one here and put everyone out of their misery? Or is it possible, just possible, they'll ask win both games, as they should, and go into the Big Ten Tournament in good enough shape to justify consideration?
I don't know, I just don't, but this feels just like watching the Vikings/Saints all over again. You don't know why or how, but you just know things aren't going to go in your favore.
1. So how has Michigan done since their soul-crushing defeat of the Gophers? They followed up that win by winning at Iowa, and since have lost three straight: versus Penn State and Illinois and at Ohio State while failing to score more than fifty-five points in any game. They have continued to be terrible at scoring the basketball, and have shot 36% or less in all three games during the losing streak while continuing to be horrible at shooting the three-pointer, hitting a combined 17-76 (22%) in the three games while shooting them with the frequency of a drunk wrestler at open gym, taking 76 of them compared to just 40 by their opponents. In short, they're still bad.
2. Remind me again how the Gophers lost last time? Michigan actually scored the ball, hitting 50% from the field and 7-14 from three, with less reliance on the three-point shot because they were able to get the ball inside, leading to DeShawn Sims doing whatever he wanted and scoring 27 points. Not to mention that the Wolverines only turned it over eight times, and the future (and the now) of the Gophers, Devoe and Sampson, combined to score just eleven points on 3-12 shooting. You can read my live blog of the game here, but I have to warn you that by the end it just degenerated into me insulting the Gophers using British slang.
3. So are we still worried about Sims? Well, he followed up that monster game against the Gophers with another good one against Iowa (27 and 10), but since then has fallen back to earth. He's gone 10 and 8, 7 and 13, and 11 and 6 in the losing streak, and has hit on just 34% of his field goal attempts. The problem isn't even that he's fallen back in love with the three-point shot, which he has a tendency to do, since he took just three attempts in those three games. Since he started since slump, Ralphie has gone in the opposite direction, and even though he didn't put up impressive numbers against Illinois he is still showing more emotion and more aggressiveness. I think Ralph dominates Sims, so I'm not worried. I mean, I'm worried, but I'm not worried.
4. Any sneaky "key-to-the-game" type players for the Gophers this time around? I'm going with Paul Carter and, to a lesser extent, Rodney Williams. Michigan has a limited number of athletes, and when they're busy trying to check the Gophers' main guys, Carter and Williams should be able to have success getting inside. Especially Carter, who has been very good lately when given the playing time. In his last three games where he's played more than 10 minutes (Michigan, Northwestern, and Illinois) he's hit double-figures in scoring and grabbed at least 3 boards while hitting 13 of 18 shot attempts. Rodney had his second-best game in the Big Ten season against Illinois, going for 8 points and 6 rebounds, and could be finally breaking out - no better time than the present.
5. So do they stay alive for a bid? There really isn't any reason to believe Michigan is going to win this game. They are a bad, bad team, and the only Big Ten wins they have grabbed in Ann Arbor this year were against Iowa, Indiana, and Ohio State without Evan Turner. Of course, they also beat UCONN in Crisler. Even more of course, the beat the Gophers in Minneapolis. And the most of course of all, is that this is the kind of game I believe in my black heart, deep down inside, that the Gophers always have and always will lose. I wish I didn't feel that way, but be honest - would you really be surprised?
Michigan 68, Minnesota 64.
But my entire Minnesota rooting life has conditioned me to expect the worst and I am nearly certain they will lose one of these two games. Will they win the "tougher" one and beat Michigan just to drop the "easy" game and the end of the schedule? Or will they just drop this first one here and put everyone out of their misery? Or is it possible, just possible, they'll ask win both games, as they should, and go into the Big Ten Tournament in good enough shape to justify consideration?
I don't know, I just don't, but this feels just like watching the Vikings/Saints all over again. You don't know why or how, but you just know things aren't going to go in your favore.
1. So how has Michigan done since their soul-crushing defeat of the Gophers? They followed up that win by winning at Iowa, and since have lost three straight: versus Penn State and Illinois and at Ohio State while failing to score more than fifty-five points in any game. They have continued to be terrible at scoring the basketball, and have shot 36% or less in all three games during the losing streak while continuing to be horrible at shooting the three-pointer, hitting a combined 17-76 (22%) in the three games while shooting them with the frequency of a drunk wrestler at open gym, taking 76 of them compared to just 40 by their opponents. In short, they're still bad.
2. Remind me again how the Gophers lost last time? Michigan actually scored the ball, hitting 50% from the field and 7-14 from three, with less reliance on the three-point shot because they were able to get the ball inside, leading to DeShawn Sims doing whatever he wanted and scoring 27 points. Not to mention that the Wolverines only turned it over eight times, and the future (and the now) of the Gophers, Devoe and Sampson, combined to score just eleven points on 3-12 shooting. You can read my live blog of the game here, but I have to warn you that by the end it just degenerated into me insulting the Gophers using British slang.
3. So are we still worried about Sims? Well, he followed up that monster game against the Gophers with another good one against Iowa (27 and 10), but since then has fallen back to earth. He's gone 10 and 8, 7 and 13, and 11 and 6 in the losing streak, and has hit on just 34% of his field goal attempts. The problem isn't even that he's fallen back in love with the three-point shot, which he has a tendency to do, since he took just three attempts in those three games. Since he started since slump, Ralphie has gone in the opposite direction, and even though he didn't put up impressive numbers against Illinois he is still showing more emotion and more aggressiveness. I think Ralph dominates Sims, so I'm not worried. I mean, I'm worried, but I'm not worried.
4. Any sneaky "key-to-the-game" type players for the Gophers this time around? I'm going with Paul Carter and, to a lesser extent, Rodney Williams. Michigan has a limited number of athletes, and when they're busy trying to check the Gophers' main guys, Carter and Williams should be able to have success getting inside. Especially Carter, who has been very good lately when given the playing time. In his last three games where he's played more than 10 minutes (Michigan, Northwestern, and Illinois) he's hit double-figures in scoring and grabbed at least 3 boards while hitting 13 of 18 shot attempts. Rodney had his second-best game in the Big Ten season against Illinois, going for 8 points and 6 rebounds, and could be finally breaking out - no better time than the present.
5. So do they stay alive for a bid? There really isn't any reason to believe Michigan is going to win this game. They are a bad, bad team, and the only Big Ten wins they have grabbed in Ann Arbor this year were against Iowa, Indiana, and Ohio State without Evan Turner. Of course, they also beat UCONN in Crisler. Even more of course, the beat the Gophers in Minneapolis. And the most of course of all, is that this is the kind of game I believe in my black heart, deep down inside, that the Gophers always have and always will lose. I wish I didn't feel that way, but be honest - would you really be surprised?
Michigan 68, Minnesota 64.
Week in Review - 3/1/2010
Well that was a pretty good win. Not good as in pretty, or good as in they finally figured out how to close out a game, but good as in that was a season saver. I can't really give you the usual brilliant, in-depth analysis you've come to expect because I was watching the game while at a beer bust, but I saw enough to know my prediction of a big gopher lead early, a gopher lead late, and a Illinois comeback and win damn near came true. That's not the important thing, however. The important thing is that they did get this win, and now are in ok shape for a tournament bid, even showing up on the "last four out" for Joe Lunardi. Win at Michigan and beat Iowa here, then win one big ten tournament game and it's very interesting.
If you just compare the Gophers and Illinois quick, they have basically the same record, although Illinois is two games better in conference play. The Gophers have the better RPI (70 to 74) and better Strength of Schedule (37 to 61). Both teams have two wins over top 25 RPI teams, while Illinois has a total of four over top 50 teams compared to just three for the Gophers and they have nearly identical records against the top 100. The Gophers have three bad losses (vs. teams over 100 in the RPI) while Illinois has two. The Gophers are 4-8 in road/neutral games, while Illinois is 6-8. The best win by either of the two teams goes to the Gophers with their win over Butler, and both team's have beaten Wisconsin.
I know the bids supposedly don't compare teams within the conference like this and look at the team's as an overall whole, but it's useful to know where the Gophers stand in comparison to the Illini. It also serves as a depressing reminder that if you reverse almost any loss on the Gopher schedule, they are ahead of Illinois, but as it stands right now they are probably slightly behind. In any case, it's time to win. There's no room for error.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Notre Dame. Bill Simmons' Ewing Theory in full effect? Seriously, has anybody has as impressive a week all year as Notre Dame had this week? They beat both Pitt and Georgetown, both by double-digits, and have gone from "probably out" to "probably in" all in a four day span - and they've done it without Luke Harangody. Since he's been out it's just been a bunch of role-players just used to deferring to him, but maybe we're finding out they aren't role players (even if Tory Jackson has the decision-making skills of a rock). Ben Hansbrough has stepped up his scoring since Harangody went out, averaging 15 per game (compared to 12), but the guy who has really helped out is junior forward Carleton Scott, who is averaging 9.3 points and 6.3 rebounds per game since the injury compared to 3.5 of each beforehand. Basically the Irish have played really well since Luke went down, and now find themselves in good shape for an NCAA bid. Which means he'll come back next week, they'll lose two, bow out early in the Big East tournament, and find themselves in the NIT again.
2. Syracuse. Wow. And also, wow. What an impressive victory over Villanova, the alleged #8 team in the land. The Orange smoked Scottie Reynolds and the rest of those dorks 95-77 which followed up their road win earlier in the week over Providence. To go out and annihilate another top ten team like the Wildcats is impressive, and I'm starting to think the Orange are the team to beat in March. I was pretty clearly wrong about Wes Johnson, who is an absolute stud, and I think Andy Rautins used my criticism of him from last year as a motivational tool because he's somehow become a top flight point guard and he's not even a point guard. I was talking to a friend who is a Syracuse alum, and he said that this isn't the Cuse's most talented team, but it is their best. He said usually they have a focal point guy who a lot of times undermines the whole team concept - it worked with Carmelo, didn't with Donte Greene - but this year it's just seven guys who have bought in to the team concept. Really good team. Right now, they're probably my #1.
3. New Mexico. If you kind of thought New Mexico wasn't anything special and just kept rising in the polls because they were basically just chillin' in the Mountain West, you aren't alone. If you still think that, you're an idiot. The Lobos put the word out that they are the real deal, going into Provo and beat BYU 83-81, the Cougars first home loss this year and one of only a handful the last few years. The win clinches at least a tie for the MWC crown for the Lobos, and brings New Mexico to 6-0 this year against ranked teams. That's right, 6-0. They've beaten BYU twice, UNLV, Cal, Texas Tech, and Texas A&M, and also have wins over decent teams like Dayton, Louisiana Tech, and New Mexico State. Three of this team's top four players are of the 6-5 to 6-8 athletic wing types, and the other dude gives them the strong and experience point play you need in March. This team is a threat.
4. Marquette. Now this is how a bubble team is supposed to respond to a challenge in late March. Marquette was probably right in the middle of the bubble, but with two wins this week, both on the road, both in overtime, and one over fellow bubble team Seton Hall, they're probably in for sure. First, the Eagles beat St. John's in their place 63-61 on a Jimmy Butler jumper as time expired in overtime, and then they went to Seton Hall and knocked the Pirates out of NCAA contention 84-83. I didn't expect much out of Marquette this year, not after losing three starting guards who were basically the whole team, but Lazar Hayward has gotten even better and Butler and Darius Johnson-Odom are very good players. And Marquette is probably better than the 19-9 record would indicate. Other than an inexplicable loss to DePaul and an early season loss to NC State every loss on the record has been by single-digits to an NCAA-caliber team.
5. Tay Waller. I know you don't know who this is, but that's why I'm here, to be nerdy enough about college hoops to know who people like Tay Waller are. And also he's on my fantasy team, which has now made the finals. Anyway, Waller had a big week but you won't hear about because he plays for crappy Auburn. The 6-2 senior guard for the Tigers was a top 10 JuCo player back in 2008 coming out of NW Florida Community College, and after being pretty solid for his year and three-quarters (way better than Bostick) he's really hit his stride, scoring more than 26 in each of Auburn's last three games, scoring 29 against Ole Miss in a loss and then 26 to lead the Tigers to a win over LSU this week. He's not on any NBA radars or anything, but he'll probably end up making a nice living overseas, and he deserves to be recognized even if he plays for the shitbox that is the Auburn Tigers. Plus, he probably gets to roll around with broads like these all the time.
WHO SUCKED
1. Wake Forest. Probably the worst week any team has had in the history of basketball. No joke. The Demon Deacons started off the week by losing at ACC bottom-feeder North Carolina State, and then followed that up by getting embarrassed at home by the embarrassing Carolina Tar Heels. To put this in Big Ten terms, that would be like losing at Indiana and then losing at home to Michigan. [NOTE: I just realized what I did there. hahahahahahahahahaha kill me.] And I had the misfortune to watch a good chunk of that Carolina game, and holy crap is Wake awful. I've never seen a team play so lazily and selfishly all at the same time. It was like watching five Westbrooks. I refuse to believe this team is 8-6 in the ACC, and was 8-3 at one point. This is a first-round upset waiting to happen, I don't care if they draw Bethune-Cookman in round one.
2. John Wall. Has the phenom hit the proverbial wall? His raw numbers are ok - 12 pts, 5 rebounds, 4 assists in a 20-point win over South Carolina and 19-5-6 in the loss to Tennessee, but if you look deeper he had a pretty sub-par week. He shot just 10-31 overall and was 0-7 from three-point range, and he turned the ball over 11 times in the two games - yes, that's more turnovers than field goals made this week. And although he has always been a bit of a turnover machine (averaging 4.0 per game) his shooting is what would really concern me - he hasn't shot better than 50% in a game since February 2nd. Maybe it's just a simple fluctuation of his numbers, but if I was a Kentucky fan I'd be pretty concerned that he seems to be struggling a bit at this time of the year. In any case, there's no way a team this young (three of the top four players are freshmen) and this volatile (both Cousins and Wall are crazy) with that coach is going to the final four. You go ahead and pick them there, but they're going to get knocked off by some seven seed. Just watch.
3. Virginia Tech. When your hopes for an at-large bid are best described as "little margin for error and only in decent shape because of an impressive ACC record" one thing you really shouldn't do is go out the next week and drop two ACC games - one at home (to Maryland) and one to a bottom-tier team (Boston College). The Hokies are still 21-7 overall and 8-6 in conference play, but there's not a whole lot to be impressed with. They have a win over Clemson, one over Wake, and a non-conference win over Seton Hall, and that's it. Everything else is against a bottom tier team. I don't know what to think about their chances, they're a super confusing team. You could make a pretty good argument spanning anywhere from "they should be easily in" to "they have no chance." Take your pick.
4. The Atlantic 10. Going into this week there were seven teams in the A-10 that had a shot at getting an at-large bid to the tournament, but things are not breaking the right way and it's starting to look more and more likely that the conference will end up with three teams going (Temple, Xavier, and Richmond are all basically locks). Dayton is probably fourth on the list, but at 8-6 in the conference might not have enough juice, and they had a huge chance to knock of Temple this week and whiffed. Another team that had a chance at a big upset and missed out was St. Louis, who has a nice 10-4 conference record but is lacking big wins, which makes their loss to Xavier this week even more damaging. Charlotte and Rhode Island both looked to have an inside track at a bid earlier this year, but both have faded coming down the stretch and both knocked themselves out of bid contention with losses they couldn't have this weekend - Charlotte lost to George Washington, Rhode Island to St. Bonaventure. So the A-10 will likely have just three teams dancing, maybe four if Dayton gets it together, which isn't bad, but isn't as lofty as it could have been. Also, Richmond and Temple are going down quickly, Xavier is the only team here that can make a run. Mark it down.
5. Purdue. Ruh roh. You kind of had to wonder just how the Boilers would respond with Robbie Hummel out. They still have E'Twaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson which still gives them one of the better 1-2 punches in the country, but Hummel was kind of the glue guy, along with being a top scorer. They certainly didn't have any time to ease into, welcoming Michigan State to Keady Court right off the bat, and the results weren't pretty. The only managed 44 points, shot just 30%, and were out-rebounded 44-16 as the Spartans won 53-44. Yes by the way, those numbers are correct they were out-rebounded 44-16. I think they'll end up being a lot better without Hummel than they showed on Sunday, and they have games against Penn State and Indiana this coming week to work on some things, but this has to be a pretty big concern for Boiler Nation.
I guess there was also some kind of big whoopity-doo hockey game between the Americans and the Commies or something, but I didn't really pay attention. I heard the commies won, so I expect Canada to start taking over Red Dawn style anytime now. WOLVERINES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (but not on Tuesday)
BUBBLE GAMES OF NOTE:
Fresno State @ Utah State. I've written about them before, but the beat rolls on. USU needs to win and keep winning. Even at 23-6 they can't really afford a loss because, outside of a win over BYU, there's not much there in the non-conference profile. They would probably be ok if they lost in the WAC final to either New Mexico State or Louisiana Tech, but any loss short of that will keep likely knock them out of at-large consideration
If you just compare the Gophers and Illinois quick, they have basically the same record, although Illinois is two games better in conference play. The Gophers have the better RPI (70 to 74) and better Strength of Schedule (37 to 61). Both teams have two wins over top 25 RPI teams, while Illinois has a total of four over top 50 teams compared to just three for the Gophers and they have nearly identical records against the top 100. The Gophers have three bad losses (vs. teams over 100 in the RPI) while Illinois has two. The Gophers are 4-8 in road/neutral games, while Illinois is 6-8. The best win by either of the two teams goes to the Gophers with their win over Butler, and both team's have beaten Wisconsin.
I know the bids supposedly don't compare teams within the conference like this and look at the team's as an overall whole, but it's useful to know where the Gophers stand in comparison to the Illini. It also serves as a depressing reminder that if you reverse almost any loss on the Gopher schedule, they are ahead of Illinois, but as it stands right now they are probably slightly behind. In any case, it's time to win. There's no room for error.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Notre Dame. Bill Simmons' Ewing Theory in full effect? Seriously, has anybody has as impressive a week all year as Notre Dame had this week? They beat both Pitt and Georgetown, both by double-digits, and have gone from "probably out" to "probably in" all in a four day span - and they've done it without Luke Harangody. Since he's been out it's just been a bunch of role-players just used to deferring to him, but maybe we're finding out they aren't role players (even if Tory Jackson has the decision-making skills of a rock). Ben Hansbrough has stepped up his scoring since Harangody went out, averaging 15 per game (compared to 12), but the guy who has really helped out is junior forward Carleton Scott, who is averaging 9.3 points and 6.3 rebounds per game since the injury compared to 3.5 of each beforehand. Basically the Irish have played really well since Luke went down, and now find themselves in good shape for an NCAA bid. Which means he'll come back next week, they'll lose two, bow out early in the Big East tournament, and find themselves in the NIT again.
2. Syracuse. Wow. And also, wow. What an impressive victory over Villanova, the alleged #8 team in the land. The Orange smoked Scottie Reynolds and the rest of those dorks 95-77 which followed up their road win earlier in the week over Providence. To go out and annihilate another top ten team like the Wildcats is impressive, and I'm starting to think the Orange are the team to beat in March. I was pretty clearly wrong about Wes Johnson, who is an absolute stud, and I think Andy Rautins used my criticism of him from last year as a motivational tool because he's somehow become a top flight point guard and he's not even a point guard. I was talking to a friend who is a Syracuse alum, and he said that this isn't the Cuse's most talented team, but it is their best. He said usually they have a focal point guy who a lot of times undermines the whole team concept - it worked with Carmelo, didn't with Donte Greene - but this year it's just seven guys who have bought in to the team concept. Really good team. Right now, they're probably my #1.
3. New Mexico. If you kind of thought New Mexico wasn't anything special and just kept rising in the polls because they were basically just chillin' in the Mountain West, you aren't alone. If you still think that, you're an idiot. The Lobos put the word out that they are the real deal, going into Provo and beat BYU 83-81, the Cougars first home loss this year and one of only a handful the last few years. The win clinches at least a tie for the MWC crown for the Lobos, and brings New Mexico to 6-0 this year against ranked teams. That's right, 6-0. They've beaten BYU twice, UNLV, Cal, Texas Tech, and Texas A&M, and also have wins over decent teams like Dayton, Louisiana Tech, and New Mexico State. Three of this team's top four players are of the 6-5 to 6-8 athletic wing types, and the other dude gives them the strong and experience point play you need in March. This team is a threat.
4. Marquette. Now this is how a bubble team is supposed to respond to a challenge in late March. Marquette was probably right in the middle of the bubble, but with two wins this week, both on the road, both in overtime, and one over fellow bubble team Seton Hall, they're probably in for sure. First, the Eagles beat St. John's in their place 63-61 on a Jimmy Butler jumper as time expired in overtime, and then they went to Seton Hall and knocked the Pirates out of NCAA contention 84-83. I didn't expect much out of Marquette this year, not after losing three starting guards who were basically the whole team, but Lazar Hayward has gotten even better and Butler and Darius Johnson-Odom are very good players. And Marquette is probably better than the 19-9 record would indicate. Other than an inexplicable loss to DePaul and an early season loss to NC State every loss on the record has been by single-digits to an NCAA-caliber team.
5. Tay Waller. I know you don't know who this is, but that's why I'm here, to be nerdy enough about college hoops to know who people like Tay Waller are. And also he's on my fantasy team, which has now made the finals. Anyway, Waller had a big week but you won't hear about because he plays for crappy Auburn. The 6-2 senior guard for the Tigers was a top 10 JuCo player back in 2008 coming out of NW Florida Community College, and after being pretty solid for his year and three-quarters (way better than Bostick) he's really hit his stride, scoring more than 26 in each of Auburn's last three games, scoring 29 against Ole Miss in a loss and then 26 to lead the Tigers to a win over LSU this week. He's not on any NBA radars or anything, but he'll probably end up making a nice living overseas, and he deserves to be recognized even if he plays for the shitbox that is the Auburn Tigers. Plus, he probably gets to roll around with broads like these all the time.
WHO SUCKED
1. Wake Forest. Probably the worst week any team has had in the history of basketball. No joke. The Demon Deacons started off the week by losing at ACC bottom-feeder North Carolina State, and then followed that up by getting embarrassed at home by the embarrassing Carolina Tar Heels. To put this in Big Ten terms, that would be like losing at Indiana and then losing at home to Michigan. [NOTE: I just realized what I did there. hahahahahahahahahaha kill me.] And I had the misfortune to watch a good chunk of that Carolina game, and holy crap is Wake awful. I've never seen a team play so lazily and selfishly all at the same time. It was like watching five Westbrooks. I refuse to believe this team is 8-6 in the ACC, and was 8-3 at one point. This is a first-round upset waiting to happen, I don't care if they draw Bethune-Cookman in round one.
2. John Wall. Has the phenom hit the proverbial wall? His raw numbers are ok - 12 pts, 5 rebounds, 4 assists in a 20-point win over South Carolina and 19-5-6 in the loss to Tennessee, but if you look deeper he had a pretty sub-par week. He shot just 10-31 overall and was 0-7 from three-point range, and he turned the ball over 11 times in the two games - yes, that's more turnovers than field goals made this week. And although he has always been a bit of a turnover machine (averaging 4.0 per game) his shooting is what would really concern me - he hasn't shot better than 50% in a game since February 2nd. Maybe it's just a simple fluctuation of his numbers, but if I was a Kentucky fan I'd be pretty concerned that he seems to be struggling a bit at this time of the year. In any case, there's no way a team this young (three of the top four players are freshmen) and this volatile (both Cousins and Wall are crazy) with that coach is going to the final four. You go ahead and pick them there, but they're going to get knocked off by some seven seed. Just watch.
3. Virginia Tech. When your hopes for an at-large bid are best described as "little margin for error and only in decent shape because of an impressive ACC record" one thing you really shouldn't do is go out the next week and drop two ACC games - one at home (to Maryland) and one to a bottom-tier team (Boston College). The Hokies are still 21-7 overall and 8-6 in conference play, but there's not a whole lot to be impressed with. They have a win over Clemson, one over Wake, and a non-conference win over Seton Hall, and that's it. Everything else is against a bottom tier team. I don't know what to think about their chances, they're a super confusing team. You could make a pretty good argument spanning anywhere from "they should be easily in" to "they have no chance." Take your pick.
4. The Atlantic 10. Going into this week there were seven teams in the A-10 that had a shot at getting an at-large bid to the tournament, but things are not breaking the right way and it's starting to look more and more likely that the conference will end up with three teams going (Temple, Xavier, and Richmond are all basically locks). Dayton is probably fourth on the list, but at 8-6 in the conference might not have enough juice, and they had a huge chance to knock of Temple this week and whiffed. Another team that had a chance at a big upset and missed out was St. Louis, who has a nice 10-4 conference record but is lacking big wins, which makes their loss to Xavier this week even more damaging. Charlotte and Rhode Island both looked to have an inside track at a bid earlier this year, but both have faded coming down the stretch and both knocked themselves out of bid contention with losses they couldn't have this weekend - Charlotte lost to George Washington, Rhode Island to St. Bonaventure. So the A-10 will likely have just three teams dancing, maybe four if Dayton gets it together, which isn't bad, but isn't as lofty as it could have been. Also, Richmond and Temple are going down quickly, Xavier is the only team here that can make a run. Mark it down.
5. Purdue. Ruh roh. You kind of had to wonder just how the Boilers would respond with Robbie Hummel out. They still have E'Twaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson which still gives them one of the better 1-2 punches in the country, but Hummel was kind of the glue guy, along with being a top scorer. They certainly didn't have any time to ease into, welcoming Michigan State to Keady Court right off the bat, and the results weren't pretty. The only managed 44 points, shot just 30%, and were out-rebounded 44-16 as the Spartans won 53-44. Yes by the way, those numbers are correct they were out-rebounded 44-16. I think they'll end up being a lot better without Hummel than they showed on Sunday, and they have games against Penn State and Indiana this coming week to work on some things, but this has to be a pretty big concern for Boiler Nation.
I guess there was also some kind of big whoopity-doo hockey game between the Americans and the Commies or something, but I didn't really pay attention. I heard the commies won, so I expect Canada to start taking over Red Dawn style anytime now. WOLVERINES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (but not on Tuesday)
BUBBLE GAMES OF NOTE:
Fresno State @ Utah State. I've written about them before, but the beat rolls on. USU needs to win and keep winning. Even at 23-6 they can't really afford a loss because, outside of a win over BYU, there's not much there in the non-conference profile. They would probably be ok if they lost in the WAC final to either New Mexico State or Louisiana Tech, but any loss short of that will keep likely knock them out of at-large consideration
Friday, February 26, 2010
Gophers head to Champaign. Great.
Yes, the Gophers head to Assembly hall, bastion of shame and losingness, with little to no hope of an NCAA bid. Hopefully they can maybe pull this one out, if only just to teases us for a bit longer before they lose at Michigan.
1. Is this a bubble elimination game? Sort of. If Minnesota loses, their chances are done. I think even if they were to win out and make the Big Ten Final and lose there, they still wouldn't get in. In that case, it's an elimination game for the Gophers. As for the Illini, they're a bit tougher to read. Although losing this game wouldn't crush their chances, it would make things more difficult for them, because their last two games are at Ohio State and then home against the Badgers. If they win even one more game it gets them to 11 Big Ten wins, and with non-conference victories over Vanderbilt and Clemson it's hard to imagine them not getting in at that point. The RPI is 64 which is a bit iffy, so they'd probably be better off getting two wins. So no, it's not an elimination game for Illinois, but it would make things a lot scarier for them if they lose.
2. Is Illinois good? Well, I picked them 7th in the conference before the season started, so they're obviously better than I thought they'd be, but it's hard to get a real read on this team. The previously mentioned wins over Vanderbilt and Clemson are both impressive, especially since the win over Clemson was on the road, but they also lost non-conference games to a couple of terrible teams in Utah (RPI 142) and Bradley (105). In conference play they've mostly beat up on the bad teams, with six of their Big Ten wins coming in season sweeps of Indiana, Iowa, and Penn State, but they also have a couple of really nice wins, one over Michigan State and a very impressive win in the Kohl Center over Sconnie. I think what it really boils down to is that they are an above average team, and the very definition of a bubble team. A couple of breaks either way (they won by three or less against Clemson, Penn State and Indiana, and lost by three or less against Gonzaga, Utah, and Georgia) and they could be firmly IN or OUT at this point.
3. What's going on with McCamey? One of the biggest concerns I had about the Illini this year was point guard play. Chester Frazier was no brilliant scorer or anything, but he could run the point, and with his graduation Illinois didn't really have a point guard, and I didn't think McCamey could become one. He seems to have made the adjustment (mostly) however, and even tossed in a 16-assist game against Purdue last week, his third game with 9+ assists in the team's last five, and he now ranks second in the country in assists per game. Second in the country. Think about that one. However he's still not brilliant with the ball, as his 3.5 turnovers per game are a problem and he's currently riding a four game streak of 5+ turnovers. I tend to think the turnovers right now have a lot to do with him trying to create, and kind of go along with assists and playmaking (Evan Turner is the worst in the Big Ten at 3.8 per game), so the real key is going to be containing the assists and his ability to create open shots for his teammates while capitalizing on the turnovers, because they will come.
4. Has Ralph arrived? I certainly like to think so. I couldn't have been more proud on Wednesday, up until the part where they lost. Ralphie went up against the best center in the Big Ten in Johnson, and not only held his own he dominated the matchup. Johnson ended up with good numbers, but after a hot start he was mostly invisible while Ralph carried the Gopher offense on his back. I'm very interesting in seeing how he handles Tisdale on Saturday. Ralph has a size and strength advantage, but at this stage of his development he's still a finesse player which plays in to the taller Tisdale's hands. Hopefully we see another step in his path towards Big Ten POY and he brutalizes him down low.
5. Can the Gophers actually win in Champaign? They never do, do they? The Gophers have been playing very well lately and if that keeps up they have a solid chance, but the Illini are no easy pushover, and somebody is going to have to keep Mike Davis off the boards. I think I can make three solid predictions for the game:
1) At some point, the Gophers will have a double-digit lead
2) At some point with ten minutes left in the game or less, the Gophers will have a lead.
3) When the final gun sounds, Gopher fans are left feeling disappointed once again by this team
Illinois 63, Minnesota 60
Princeton @ Cornell - If Cornell wins, they all but lock up the Ivy. If they lose they are tied with Princeton at the top.
Kansas @ Oklahoma State - An OSU win might be enough to put them in.
Cincinnati @ West Virginia - The Bearcats have little margin for error, and a marquee win like this would be huge.
Illinois State @ Northern Iowa - UNI can't afford another loss to a sub-par team.
Rice @ UTEP - Neither can the Miners.
Tulane @ UAB - Same deal for the Blazers.
Ole Miss @ Alabama - Can the Rebels make a late season push?
Arizona State @ Cal - I'm calling the winner of this one IN.
UNLV @ Air Force - Rebels starting to look a bit shaky, if they drop this one they might be out.
Maryland @ Virginia Tech - The Hokies must win here.
VCU @ Old Dominion - Tough game for ODU, but they can't lose another one.
Charlotte @ George Washington - Charlotte is another team that can't lose a game if they want a bid.
Penn @ Cornell - Same deal here, but this takes on even more importance if the Big Red are dropped by Princeton Friday night.
UMass @ Dayton - Dayton is on very thin ice due to a poor A-10 performance, they're another team that's probably one loss away from being dropped from consideration altogether.
Loyola-Marymount @ St. Mary's - LMU beat Gonzaga earlier this month, could they knock St. Mary's into the NIT? (Answer = no).
Richmond @ Xavier. Both these teams are almost certainly in, but it should be a pretty great game, and the winner moves to definite lock status.
Marquette @ Seton Hall - Bubble elimination game? Certainly for the Pirates.
Louisville @ UCONN - Both teams will probably make it, but the winner here takes a step up.
Busy weekend. Go Gophers.
1. Is this a bubble elimination game? Sort of. If Minnesota loses, their chances are done. I think even if they were to win out and make the Big Ten Final and lose there, they still wouldn't get in. In that case, it's an elimination game for the Gophers. As for the Illini, they're a bit tougher to read. Although losing this game wouldn't crush their chances, it would make things more difficult for them, because their last two games are at Ohio State and then home against the Badgers. If they win even one more game it gets them to 11 Big Ten wins, and with non-conference victories over Vanderbilt and Clemson it's hard to imagine them not getting in at that point. The RPI is 64 which is a bit iffy, so they'd probably be better off getting two wins. So no, it's not an elimination game for Illinois, but it would make things a lot scarier for them if they lose.
2. Is Illinois good? Well, I picked them 7th in the conference before the season started, so they're obviously better than I thought they'd be, but it's hard to get a real read on this team. The previously mentioned wins over Vanderbilt and Clemson are both impressive, especially since the win over Clemson was on the road, but they also lost non-conference games to a couple of terrible teams in Utah (RPI 142) and Bradley (105). In conference play they've mostly beat up on the bad teams, with six of their Big Ten wins coming in season sweeps of Indiana, Iowa, and Penn State, but they also have a couple of really nice wins, one over Michigan State and a very impressive win in the Kohl Center over Sconnie. I think what it really boils down to is that they are an above average team, and the very definition of a bubble team. A couple of breaks either way (they won by three or less against Clemson, Penn State and Indiana, and lost by three or less against Gonzaga, Utah, and Georgia) and they could be firmly IN or OUT at this point.
3. What's going on with McCamey? One of the biggest concerns I had about the Illini this year was point guard play. Chester Frazier was no brilliant scorer or anything, but he could run the point, and with his graduation Illinois didn't really have a point guard, and I didn't think McCamey could become one. He seems to have made the adjustment (mostly) however, and even tossed in a 16-assist game against Purdue last week, his third game with 9+ assists in the team's last five, and he now ranks second in the country in assists per game. Second in the country. Think about that one. However he's still not brilliant with the ball, as his 3.5 turnovers per game are a problem and he's currently riding a four game streak of 5+ turnovers. I tend to think the turnovers right now have a lot to do with him trying to create, and kind of go along with assists and playmaking (Evan Turner is the worst in the Big Ten at 3.8 per game), so the real key is going to be containing the assists and his ability to create open shots for his teammates while capitalizing on the turnovers, because they will come.
4. Has Ralph arrived? I certainly like to think so. I couldn't have been more proud on Wednesday, up until the part where they lost. Ralphie went up against the best center in the Big Ten in Johnson, and not only held his own he dominated the matchup. Johnson ended up with good numbers, but after a hot start he was mostly invisible while Ralph carried the Gopher offense on his back. I'm very interesting in seeing how he handles Tisdale on Saturday. Ralph has a size and strength advantage, but at this stage of his development he's still a finesse player which plays in to the taller Tisdale's hands. Hopefully we see another step in his path towards Big Ten POY and he brutalizes him down low.
5. Can the Gophers actually win in Champaign? They never do, do they? The Gophers have been playing very well lately and if that keeps up they have a solid chance, but the Illini are no easy pushover, and somebody is going to have to keep Mike Davis off the boards. I think I can make three solid predictions for the game:
1) At some point, the Gophers will have a double-digit lead
2) At some point with ten minutes left in the game or less, the Gophers will have a lead.
3) When the final gun sounds, Gopher fans are left feeling disappointed once again by this team
Illinois 63, Minnesota 60
As far as the bubble goes, last night Tulsa whiffed on their big chance to get back in consideration by losing at Duke. Nobody expected them to win, but it was still their last chance, any way you look at it (barring a win in the C-USA tournament which is certainly possible) and you can now officially cross of Louisiana Tech after their loss to Boise. Cal and Arizona State both won, increasing the chances of two Pac-10 teams making the dance, and Utah State and St. Mary's both won absolute must-have games.
THIS WEEKEND'S BUBBLE GAMES OF NOTE:
Princeton @ Cornell - If Cornell wins, they all but lock up the Ivy. If they lose they are tied with Princeton at the top.
Kansas @ Oklahoma State - An OSU win might be enough to put them in.
Cincinnati @ West Virginia - The Bearcats have little margin for error, and a marquee win like this would be huge.
Illinois State @ Northern Iowa - UNI can't afford another loss to a sub-par team.
Rice @ UTEP - Neither can the Miners.
Tulane @ UAB - Same deal for the Blazers.
Ole Miss @ Alabama - Can the Rebels make a late season push?
Arizona State @ Cal - I'm calling the winner of this one IN.
UNLV @ Air Force - Rebels starting to look a bit shaky, if they drop this one they might be out.
Maryland @ Virginia Tech - The Hokies must win here.
VCU @ Old Dominion - Tough game for ODU, but they can't lose another one.
Charlotte @ George Washington - Charlotte is another team that can't lose a game if they want a bid.
Penn @ Cornell - Same deal here, but this takes on even more importance if the Big Red are dropped by Princeton Friday night.
UMass @ Dayton - Dayton is on very thin ice due to a poor A-10 performance, they're another team that's probably one loss away from being dropped from consideration altogether.
Loyola-Marymount @ St. Mary's - LMU beat Gonzaga earlier this month, could they knock St. Mary's into the NIT? (Answer = no).
Richmond @ Xavier. Both these teams are almost certainly in, but it should be a pretty great game, and the winner moves to definite lock status.
Marquette @ Seton Hall - Bubble elimination game? Certainly for the Pirates.
Louisville @ UCONN - Both teams will probably make it, but the winner here takes a step up.
Clemson @ Florida State - Similar to the game above, but both these teams are a bit shakier than the two above.
Busy weekend. Go Gophers.
Thursday, February 25, 2010
Let's Move On - Bubble Watch
I can't bring myself to think about the Gophers anymore, so let's move on to something that has nothing to do with Minnesota basketball - the NCAA Tournament, and take a look at the bubble situation like I promised you I would do every day.
Last night there was a lot of bubble related action and your precious gophers weren't the only team who had their dreams crushed. South Florida's loss to Villanova isn't surprising, but losing by nearly 30 might be enough to keep them out. Oklahoma State, Virginia Tech, San Diego State, St. Louis, and Dayton all lost games they could have really used to bolster their cause. None of those five are dead yet, but the same can't be said for Memphis, Wichita State, and William & Mary who all lost must win games and are now in a position where they will need to win their conference tournament to make the dance.
There were also a few teams in must-win situations who came out on top: Cincinnati beat DePaul, Marquette outlasted St. John's in overtime, UTEP and fellow C-USA bubbler UAB both won on the road, Florida State won in Chapel Hill setting up a huge bubble game against Clemson on Sunday, UNLV beat TCU, and Charlotte stomped St. Joe's. The biggest win of the night was probably Notre Dame knocking off Pitt, which keeps them alive and boosts their profile with a marquee win, and they did it without Harangody. Mississippi State also helped themselves with a win over Alabama thanks to Jarvis Varnado's ridiculous 17 point, 10 rebound, 8 block performance.
THURSDAY'S BUBBLE GAMES OF NOTE:
Tulsa @ Duke. Tulsa is probably not really in bubble contention anymore, but a win over Duke puts them right back in it.
Boise St @ Louisiana Tech. Tech is almost certainly out of it, but I like them and they have a better chance than Northwestern since they torpedoed their chances, so here you go.
Arizona @ Cal. Cal might be the only team who could get an at-large from the Pac-10, so if they falter and somebody else wins the Pac-10 tournament, we're looking at a possible one-bid from a BCS conference.
Arizona State @ Stanford. Of course, if Cal does win the Pac tournament and Arizona State can't finish strong, we could be looking at one-bid from the Pac that way too.
Oregon @ USC. ESPN's bubble watch doesn't even have USC in the mix anymore, but hell, somebody has to go on a run in this league, right?
Pepperdine @ St. Mary's. The Gaels whiffed on both their chances against Gonzaga and pulled out of bracket busters which only could have helped, so their profile is pretty thin. They need to keep winning and hope to get another crack at the Zags in the WCC final.
Utah State @ Hawaii. The Aggies margin for error is razor-thin thanks to a mostly empty profile, and traveling the long distance to Hawaii is never easy. Actually that's a myth. Hawaii is awful this year and is just 2-5 at home in WAC play this year, but either way USU can't afford a loss here.
There. That was far more fun than thinking/writing/discussing the Gopher game. I feel slightly better.
And I know what else would cheer everybody up, a new picture of WonderbabyTM
Last night there was a lot of bubble related action and your precious gophers weren't the only team who had their dreams crushed. South Florida's loss to Villanova isn't surprising, but losing by nearly 30 might be enough to keep them out. Oklahoma State, Virginia Tech, San Diego State, St. Louis, and Dayton all lost games they could have really used to bolster their cause. None of those five are dead yet, but the same can't be said for Memphis, Wichita State, and William & Mary who all lost must win games and are now in a position where they will need to win their conference tournament to make the dance.
There were also a few teams in must-win situations who came out on top: Cincinnati beat DePaul, Marquette outlasted St. John's in overtime, UTEP and fellow C-USA bubbler UAB both won on the road, Florida State won in Chapel Hill setting up a huge bubble game against Clemson on Sunday, UNLV beat TCU, and Charlotte stomped St. Joe's. The biggest win of the night was probably Notre Dame knocking off Pitt, which keeps them alive and boosts their profile with a marquee win, and they did it without Harangody. Mississippi State also helped themselves with a win over Alabama thanks to Jarvis Varnado's ridiculous 17 point, 10 rebound, 8 block performance.
THURSDAY'S BUBBLE GAMES OF NOTE:
Tulsa @ Duke. Tulsa is probably not really in bubble contention anymore, but a win over Duke puts them right back in it.
Boise St @ Louisiana Tech. Tech is almost certainly out of it, but I like them and they have a better chance than Northwestern since they torpedoed their chances, so here you go.
Arizona @ Cal. Cal might be the only team who could get an at-large from the Pac-10, so if they falter and somebody else wins the Pac-10 tournament, we're looking at a possible one-bid from a BCS conference.
Arizona State @ Stanford. Of course, if Cal does win the Pac tournament and Arizona State can't finish strong, we could be looking at one-bid from the Pac that way too.
Oregon @ USC. ESPN's bubble watch doesn't even have USC in the mix anymore, but hell, somebody has to go on a run in this league, right?
Pepperdine @ St. Mary's. The Gaels whiffed on both their chances against Gonzaga and pulled out of bracket busters which only could have helped, so their profile is pretty thin. They need to keep winning and hope to get another crack at the Zags in the WCC final.
Utah State @ Hawaii. The Aggies margin for error is razor-thin thanks to a mostly empty profile, and traveling the long distance to Hawaii is never easy. Actually that's a myth. Hawaii is awful this year and is just 2-5 at home in WAC play this year, but either way USU can't afford a loss here.
There. That was far more fun than thinking/writing/discussing the Gopher game. I feel slightly better.
And I know what else would cheer everybody up, a new picture of WonderbabyTM
Wednesday, February 24, 2010
I Quit Blogging Forever [***PHOTO UPDATE***]
Ok I don't quit forever, but seriously you guys, I am absolutely heart-broken. More heartbroken than when my high school girlfriend dumped me. More heartbroken than when Kelly dumped Zack at the Costume Ball. If you're the typical white trash, snowmobiling, duck-hunting cretin who lives in this state, try to remember how you felt after the '99 NFC Championship game - that's how I feel now. In a season that has been nothing more than disappointment after disappointment, the team had one last chance to salvage the season and had it in hand. Then it slipped away like a fart in the wind.
And for one rare occasion, I'm actually not upset with any of the players. They absolutely played their asses off tonight. Ralph was the man we've always wanted him to be. As Bogart texted me at one point, "Ralph has arrived." He took on the challenge of going against JaJuan and bested him at every turn. Devoe stepped up big time and showed what he can do, taking the offense on his back down the stretch. Overall, just a great game by the players.
But at some point, we need to start thinking critically about the decisions Tubby Smith made, and it's awfully hard for me to come up with a way to not blame him for this loss.
The timeout with four seconds left is your most obvious, and most egregious error. I fail to see any reason to stop play there, because how often are you going to be able to come up with a good shot with only four seconds to play? And yes, the Gophers actually ended up with a great shot which Joseph unfortunately missed, but how can we give Tubby any credit for that? Devoe made a great one-on-one play, and that's all it was, Devoe on his own. he got no screen, there was no ball movement, there was no pick-and-roll. It was just Devoe with the ball, make something happen - which he did, but how was it any better than the shot he got before the timeout was called (which he made?) Tubby called a timeout in a similar situation late last season (Michigan, maybe?) which cost the team the game because they couldn't get a good shot in the halfcourt set. Earlier this season, he let the team just play, and even if it wasn't the best look, Westbrook hit the jumper to beat Penn State. Tubby needs to learn to let his team play, especially when the half court offense is so poor. Awful call.
Perhaps worse, and inexplicable to me, was having Colt Iverson in the game down the stretch instead of Westbrook. And I'm not even talking about the bizarre airball lay-up thing, because it's kind of like throwing a monkey a Rubik's Cube - what's more likely, that he solves it or humps it? And I'm not really even a fan of Westbrook, but any jackass knows that he is the only player who can get to the rim on this team, which he showed with thirty seconds left. He needs to be in the game down the stretch.
And defensively, what does Iverson give you that you need? I'm boggled. On Keaton Grant's huge shot with just over a minute remaining (which was a really, really tough shot, I'll grant you) Ralph was the one trying to run out on him. Why Ralph? Say Westbrook is in there instead of Colton, then Ralph is on the inside and someone like Damian is closing out on the perimeter. You think DJ couldn't get there before Grant got the shot off? And on the game winner by E'Twaun Moore, guess who the defender who got beat on the baseline was, causing the poor defensive rotation?
I won't even mention some of the groupings we saw in the first half. I mean, I think everybody knows that Rodney, Cobbs, Iverson, Sampson, and Carter isn't going to work out.
No, give credit to Purdue where it's due - both Moore and Grant hit very tough shots, and the Gopher players gave it their all and played a good game. This one is on Tubby.
You broke my heart.
[*******PHOTO UPDATE********]
I'm updating this to include a couple of really awesome pictures of Ralphie's three-pointer that Dan from Horan Horan Design sent me. He was sitting in front of us with his super fancy camera and was kind enough to share these with me. Very cool shots, and make sure to check out his site.
Needless to say, I was far more pumped up for these at the time than I am now, as I stare at the staple remover on my desk and try to decide if it would work as a cutting tool, just so I can feel again.
Thanks again, Dan. Great pictures.
And for one rare occasion, I'm actually not upset with any of the players. They absolutely played their asses off tonight. Ralph was the man we've always wanted him to be. As Bogart texted me at one point, "Ralph has arrived." He took on the challenge of going against JaJuan and bested him at every turn. Devoe stepped up big time and showed what he can do, taking the offense on his back down the stretch. Overall, just a great game by the players.
But at some point, we need to start thinking critically about the decisions Tubby Smith made, and it's awfully hard for me to come up with a way to not blame him for this loss.
The timeout with four seconds left is your most obvious, and most egregious error. I fail to see any reason to stop play there, because how often are you going to be able to come up with a good shot with only four seconds to play? And yes, the Gophers actually ended up with a great shot which Joseph unfortunately missed, but how can we give Tubby any credit for that? Devoe made a great one-on-one play, and that's all it was, Devoe on his own. he got no screen, there was no ball movement, there was no pick-and-roll. It was just Devoe with the ball, make something happen - which he did, but how was it any better than the shot he got before the timeout was called (which he made?) Tubby called a timeout in a similar situation late last season (Michigan, maybe?) which cost the team the game because they couldn't get a good shot in the halfcourt set. Earlier this season, he let the team just play, and even if it wasn't the best look, Westbrook hit the jumper to beat Penn State. Tubby needs to learn to let his team play, especially when the half court offense is so poor. Awful call.
Perhaps worse, and inexplicable to me, was having Colt Iverson in the game down the stretch instead of Westbrook. And I'm not even talking about the bizarre airball lay-up thing, because it's kind of like throwing a monkey a Rubik's Cube - what's more likely, that he solves it or humps it? And I'm not really even a fan of Westbrook, but any jackass knows that he is the only player who can get to the rim on this team, which he showed with thirty seconds left. He needs to be in the game down the stretch.
And defensively, what does Iverson give you that you need? I'm boggled. On Keaton Grant's huge shot with just over a minute remaining (which was a really, really tough shot, I'll grant you) Ralph was the one trying to run out on him. Why Ralph? Say Westbrook is in there instead of Colton, then Ralph is on the inside and someone like Damian is closing out on the perimeter. You think DJ couldn't get there before Grant got the shot off? And on the game winner by E'Twaun Moore, guess who the defender who got beat on the baseline was, causing the poor defensive rotation?
I won't even mention some of the groupings we saw in the first half. I mean, I think everybody knows that Rodney, Cobbs, Iverson, Sampson, and Carter isn't going to work out.
No, give credit to Purdue where it's due - both Moore and Grant hit very tough shots, and the Gopher players gave it their all and played a good game. This one is on Tubby.
You broke my heart.
[*******PHOTO UPDATE********]
I'm updating this to include a couple of really awesome pictures of Ralphie's three-pointer that Dan from Horan Horan Design sent me. He was sitting in front of us with his super fancy camera and was kind enough to share these with me. Very cool shots, and make sure to check out his site.
Needless to say, I was far more pumped up for these at the time than I am now, as I stare at the staple remover on my desk and try to decide if it would work as a cutting tool, just so I can feel again.
Thanks again, Dan. Great pictures.
Tuesday, February 23, 2010
Beat the Boilers
Like I said in my post from yesterday I can't believe how geeked out I am for this game, especially since Purdue is probably going to win by twenty. But I just can't help it. I can't wait for the game. I guess I'm a bit like Jennifer Aniston. She just knows that whatever guy she gets with is going to get sick of her and break her heart, but she keeps flinging herself at dudes anyway. That's me. But instead of dudes it means Gopher basketball. As far as you know.
On to your preview.
1. Mediocre team that desperately needs a win at home vs. a final four contender - what usually happens? Well, I detailed in the last post how UCONN beat WVU Monday night in a very similar position to what the Gophers are in. Checking back to last year, I found nine similar situations, where a team on the bubble is visited by a top 10 team: Maryland vs. #3 North Carolina, Cincinnati vs. #7 Louisville, Georgetown vs. #6 Louisville, Maryland vs. #7 Duke, UAB vs. #4 Memphis, VA Tech vs. #7 Duke, Maryland vs. #10 Wake Forest, Va Tech vs. #2 North Carolina, and West Virginia vs. #6 Louisville. The bubble team's record in those games: 1-9. Gulp. But hey, thanks to UCONN Bubble teams are undefeated in this type of game this year, so it's practically a lock for your precious Gophers.
2. How good is the big three of Purdue? Really, really good and getting better. E'Twaun Moore might be emerging as the real go-to guy on this team and he absolutely took over the game against Michigan State. JaJuan Johnson has added a 19-foot pull-up jumper to his already Hakim Warrick like game, and Robbie Hummel is steady as they come (except for his shooting slump the last three games which hopefully will continue). The three combine to score 65% of Purdue's points and grab 52% of the team's rebounds, and Hummel and Johnson are two of the most offensively efficient players in the country according to Ken Pom, and Moore has a higher effective field goal percentage than either of them. Oh, and Lewis Jackson is back and has seemingly solved his turnover issues from last year. Yeah, this all sounds real good.
3. What's been working for the Gophers the last two games? Offensive flow, keeping the ball moving in the half court, and the high/low. Against the Badgers they shot 48% while turning it over just 11 times and against the Hoosiers it was 56% and again just 11 turnovers, this time against 23 assists. That ball movement and just overall efficient offense is leading to a lot of open shots, as evidenced by the team's 14-29 three point shooting in the last two. Of course, Purdue is a better defensive team (6th in def. efficiency) than Wisconsin (20th) or Indiana (153rd), and I can't envision how the high/low would possibly work against the Boilers and their size, but moving the ball and finding open shots is going to be a huge key - as it is in pretty much every game of basketball since Naismith and his peach basket.
Defensively this new 3-2 zone has been very effective. Indiana and Wisconsin combined to shoot just 33% from three and 30% from two, and according to Myron Medcalf of the Star Tribune the two teams combined to score just 22 points in the paint. That's all well and good, and there's not doubt a properly executed zone with good athletes - which the Gophers have - can be a devastating defensive weapon, but Purdue ain't Wisconsin or Indiana. The Badgers are more reliant on the three for offense than Craig Hodges and Indiana flat out sucks. The Boilers don't rely on the three, and Moore, Johnson, and Hummel all attack the paint. We'll see just how good that zone is, and we'll see it in a hurry.
4. Who needs to step up? Honestly, everyone. This game isn't remotely close on talent, so it's going to take effort, smart-play, hustle, and some luck if the team is going to pull this one out. Hummel has shot just 8-26 in the last three so if he keeps that up it would be huge, but I'm not that worried about the defense, it's the scoring points part that concerns me. Westbrook is going to have to avoid the temptation to revert back to "the man", and in such a high-profile game you better believe he's going to be tempted. That's probably the #1 key to the game, how Westbrook plays within the offense. I mean, Devoe is going to have to play one of his best games of his career, Sampson is going to have to continue his evolution towards Big Man of the Century and check Johnson, Hoff is going to have to find open shots, and there will probably have to be a surprise hero here somewhere, but the Westbrook thing trumps all. If he's in "showcase my talent" mode, nothing else is going to matter.
5. Well, what do we think? I may be amped up for the game and even feeling a bit optimistic, but I am a realist at heart. Checking kenpom.com, they give the Gophers a 45% of winning this game and predict a one-point Purdue win. That's probably not too generous towards Minnesota. I think if the Gophers and Boilers play this game ten times, Purdue wins seven times - let's just hope this is one of the other three.
Purdue 66, Minnesota 62
As far as other bubble-related news goes, two huge developments last night. The first was Florida notching a huge win by beating Tennessee, and beating them by double-digits. This is everything the Gators needed, and gives them not only another win, but a big-time signature victory. They helped themselves out immensely.
Second, and even more impactful to the bubble, Northern Iowa lost to Evansville in a shocker. Not only was UNI a heavy favorite, but Evansville had lost 17 of its last 18 games and ranked #275 in the RPI going into last night's game. Prior to this all UNI would have had to do was win their last two MVC games against bottom feeders and it would have locked up a bid regardless of what happened in the conference tournament. Now? This is so huge UNI pretty much needs to get to conference final or it's going to be a very nerve-wracking Selection Sunday. What a huge whiff.
Elsewhere, Louisville didn't get a big win it was looking for against Georgetown but are still probably ok, while Illinois, Old Dominion, and Seton Hall all got wins they needed for one reason or another. Northeastern had slim, slim, slim at-large hopes, and those are now officially bye-bye with their loss at home against Hofstra.
WEDNESDAY'S BUBBLE GAMES OF NOTE:
South Florida @ Villanova - The Bulls have a couple of really good wins (beat Pitt and Georgetown earlier), but because the rest of the profile is pretty weak they could really use another.
San Diego State @ BYU - SDSU is probably about as much of a middle of the bubble team as there is. They could really use a high-profile win and this chance to beat the Cougars is as good as it gets.
Pitt @ Notre Dame - The Irish are as good as dead, any single-loss probably kills their chances and with Harangody still injured it will probably happen sooner rather than later.
Dayton @ Temple - The Flyers at-large chances are spiraling down, down, down, and they're probably fifth in the A-10 pecking order at this point. Stealing one from the Owls would help right the ship.
UTEP @ Southern Miss - The Miners lead C-USA, but are on pretty thin ice due to a weak non-conference profile. They can't afford a loss here.
Virginia Tech @ Boston College - If the Hokies lose here, they're done.
Florida State @ North Carolina - Florida State's profile is good but not great - they can't afford to lose to the craptastic Heels.
UAB @ Central Florida - I think UAB is nearing lock status for a bid, but they still have to win games like this one.
DePaul @ Cincinnati - A loss here ends the Bearcats chances.
Saint Joe's @ Charlotte - The 49ers are another team that can't afford a loss.
Marquette @ St Johns - I personally think the committee is going to reward Marquette for playing so many good teams tight even though they lost them all (Marquette has six losses against RPI top 50 teams by single-digits), but winning a game like this is still a must for the Eagles.
Xavier @ St. Louis - X is already in, but the Billikens are making a late push. Something like, say, a win over the Musketeers would be an immense help.
Auburn @ Ole Miss - Lunardi says the Rebels are out. I'm not necessarily agreeing with that, but they definitely have to win out to have a prayer.
Memphis @ Houston - Memphis probably needs to win at least three of its last four and make a run in the CUSA tournament to have a chance.
Wichita State @ Bradley - Any loss short of in the MVC Tournament final ends the Shockers' hopes.
Alabama @ Mississippi State - Varnado and company have an empty profile when it comes to big time victories, so their only chance is win a lot of games.
TCU @ UNLV - The only way UNLV doesn't get in is by losing games like this one.
Sheesh, busy night. Hopefully the Gophers win and all these other teams lose.
On to your preview.
1. Mediocre team that desperately needs a win at home vs. a final four contender - what usually happens? Well, I detailed in the last post how UCONN beat WVU Monday night in a very similar position to what the Gophers are in. Checking back to last year, I found nine similar situations, where a team on the bubble is visited by a top 10 team: Maryland vs. #3 North Carolina, Cincinnati vs. #7 Louisville, Georgetown vs. #6 Louisville, Maryland vs. #7 Duke, UAB vs. #4 Memphis, VA Tech vs. #7 Duke, Maryland vs. #10 Wake Forest, Va Tech vs. #2 North Carolina, and West Virginia vs. #6 Louisville. The bubble team's record in those games: 1-9. Gulp. But hey, thanks to UCONN Bubble teams are undefeated in this type of game this year, so it's practically a lock for your precious Gophers.
2. How good is the big three of Purdue? Really, really good and getting better. E'Twaun Moore might be emerging as the real go-to guy on this team and he absolutely took over the game against Michigan State. JaJuan Johnson has added a 19-foot pull-up jumper to his already Hakim Warrick like game, and Robbie Hummel is steady as they come (except for his shooting slump the last three games which hopefully will continue). The three combine to score 65% of Purdue's points and grab 52% of the team's rebounds, and Hummel and Johnson are two of the most offensively efficient players in the country according to Ken Pom, and Moore has a higher effective field goal percentage than either of them. Oh, and Lewis Jackson is back and has seemingly solved his turnover issues from last year. Yeah, this all sounds real good.
3. What's been working for the Gophers the last two games? Offensive flow, keeping the ball moving in the half court, and the high/low. Against the Badgers they shot 48% while turning it over just 11 times and against the Hoosiers it was 56% and again just 11 turnovers, this time against 23 assists. That ball movement and just overall efficient offense is leading to a lot of open shots, as evidenced by the team's 14-29 three point shooting in the last two. Of course, Purdue is a better defensive team (6th in def. efficiency) than Wisconsin (20th) or Indiana (153rd), and I can't envision how the high/low would possibly work against the Boilers and their size, but moving the ball and finding open shots is going to be a huge key - as it is in pretty much every game of basketball since Naismith and his peach basket.
Defensively this new 3-2 zone has been very effective. Indiana and Wisconsin combined to shoot just 33% from three and 30% from two, and according to Myron Medcalf of the Star Tribune the two teams combined to score just 22 points in the paint. That's all well and good, and there's not doubt a properly executed zone with good athletes - which the Gophers have - can be a devastating defensive weapon, but Purdue ain't Wisconsin or Indiana. The Badgers are more reliant on the three for offense than Craig Hodges and Indiana flat out sucks. The Boilers don't rely on the three, and Moore, Johnson, and Hummel all attack the paint. We'll see just how good that zone is, and we'll see it in a hurry.
4. Who needs to step up? Honestly, everyone. This game isn't remotely close on talent, so it's going to take effort, smart-play, hustle, and some luck if the team is going to pull this one out. Hummel has shot just 8-26 in the last three so if he keeps that up it would be huge, but I'm not that worried about the defense, it's the scoring points part that concerns me. Westbrook is going to have to avoid the temptation to revert back to "the man", and in such a high-profile game you better believe he's going to be tempted. That's probably the #1 key to the game, how Westbrook plays within the offense. I mean, Devoe is going to have to play one of his best games of his career, Sampson is going to have to continue his evolution towards Big Man of the Century and check Johnson, Hoff is going to have to find open shots, and there will probably have to be a surprise hero here somewhere, but the Westbrook thing trumps all. If he's in "showcase my talent" mode, nothing else is going to matter.
5. Well, what do we think? I may be amped up for the game and even feeling a bit optimistic, but I am a realist at heart. Checking kenpom.com, they give the Gophers a 45% of winning this game and predict a one-point Purdue win. That's probably not too generous towards Minnesota. I think if the Gophers and Boilers play this game ten times, Purdue wins seven times - let's just hope this is one of the other three.
Purdue 66, Minnesota 62
As far as other bubble-related news goes, two huge developments last night. The first was Florida notching a huge win by beating Tennessee, and beating them by double-digits. This is everything the Gators needed, and gives them not only another win, but a big-time signature victory. They helped themselves out immensely.
Second, and even more impactful to the bubble, Northern Iowa lost to Evansville in a shocker. Not only was UNI a heavy favorite, but Evansville had lost 17 of its last 18 games and ranked #275 in the RPI going into last night's game. Prior to this all UNI would have had to do was win their last two MVC games against bottom feeders and it would have locked up a bid regardless of what happened in the conference tournament. Now? This is so huge UNI pretty much needs to get to conference final or it's going to be a very nerve-wracking Selection Sunday. What a huge whiff.
Elsewhere, Louisville didn't get a big win it was looking for against Georgetown but are still probably ok, while Illinois, Old Dominion, and Seton Hall all got wins they needed for one reason or another. Northeastern had slim, slim, slim at-large hopes, and those are now officially bye-bye with their loss at home against Hofstra.
WEDNESDAY'S BUBBLE GAMES OF NOTE:
South Florida @ Villanova - The Bulls have a couple of really good wins (beat Pitt and Georgetown earlier), but because the rest of the profile is pretty weak they could really use another.
San Diego State @ BYU - SDSU is probably about as much of a middle of the bubble team as there is. They could really use a high-profile win and this chance to beat the Cougars is as good as it gets.
Pitt @ Notre Dame - The Irish are as good as dead, any single-loss probably kills their chances and with Harangody still injured it will probably happen sooner rather than later.
Dayton @ Temple - The Flyers at-large chances are spiraling down, down, down, and they're probably fifth in the A-10 pecking order at this point. Stealing one from the Owls would help right the ship.
UTEP @ Southern Miss - The Miners lead C-USA, but are on pretty thin ice due to a weak non-conference profile. They can't afford a loss here.
Virginia Tech @ Boston College - If the Hokies lose here, they're done.
Florida State @ North Carolina - Florida State's profile is good but not great - they can't afford to lose to the craptastic Heels.
UAB @ Central Florida - I think UAB is nearing lock status for a bid, but they still have to win games like this one.
DePaul @ Cincinnati - A loss here ends the Bearcats chances.
Saint Joe's @ Charlotte - The 49ers are another team that can't afford a loss.
Marquette @ St Johns - I personally think the committee is going to reward Marquette for playing so many good teams tight even though they lost them all (Marquette has six losses against RPI top 50 teams by single-digits), but winning a game like this is still a must for the Eagles.
Xavier @ St. Louis - X is already in, but the Billikens are making a late push. Something like, say, a win over the Musketeers would be an immense help.
Auburn @ Ole Miss - Lunardi says the Rebels are out. I'm not necessarily agreeing with that, but they definitely have to win out to have a prayer.
Memphis @ Houston - Memphis probably needs to win at least three of its last four and make a run in the CUSA tournament to have a chance.
Wichita State @ Bradley - Any loss short of in the MVC Tournament final ends the Shockers' hopes.
Alabama @ Mississippi State - Varnado and company have an empty profile when it comes to big time victories, so their only chance is win a lot of games.
TCU @ UNLV - The only way UNLV doesn't get in is by losing games like this one.
Sheesh, busy night. Hopefully the Gophers win and all these other teams lose.
Bubble Watch - 2/23/09
I've been doing a lot of thinking, and I've concluded that I'm a big giant idiot. I am completely and totally amped up for the Purdue game tomorrow (preview later today if I feel like it). As in, I can't stop thinking about it and getting excited. Why? What has this team done to make me think they have a prayer against a Purdue team ranked in the top five which has won at both Ohio State and Michigan State in the last two weeks? This is going to be a romp for the Boilers, and yet I can't stop being optimistic - and I'm not even remotely an optimistic person. I really hate myself sometimes.
Anyway, last night UCONN got the big win they needed, knocking off #7 West Virginia 72-63 and suddenly vaulting themselves back into the NCAA bracket. Hmmm, let's take a look at UCONN's season:
1. Preseason projections have the team easily making the NCAA Tournament
2. Team fails to live up to projections
3. Team has to deal with off the court drama
4. Team whiffs on chances for good non-conference wins early in the season.
5. Team struggles in conference
6. Team loses on the road to a bottom of the conference foe
7. Team loses to Michigan
8. Team seems to be hitting their stride and gelling just as a top 10 team comes to town
9. Team beats said top 10 team in order to strengthen NCAA bid chances
Sound familiar? If they can do it, why not the Gophers?
Aside from the obvious, I mean.
BUBBLE GAMES OF NOTE:
New Mexico @ Colorado State - The Lobos are pretty much a guaranteed lock, but if anything can hurt them a loss against Colorado State could.
Georgetown @ Louisville - The Hoyas are already in, but Louisville needs to keep winning. They're in very good shape so a loss won't hurt and a win probably moves them into lock status.
Tennessee @ Florida - This is a very big game for Florida since they don't have much in the way of marquee wins. Beating the Vols probably moves them from the middle of the bubble to the top.
Northern Iowa @ Evansville. The only way UNI doesn't get an at-large is if they crash and burn coming down the stretch here. And losing to Evansville would be th every definition of crashing and burning.
Illinois @ Michigan. This is suddenly a very important game for the Illini because it's their last chance and getting an easy win (other than against the Gophers, obviously).
Old Dominion @ Georgia State. ODU probably has the resume to get in, but they can't afford a loss before the CAA tournament semis.
Seton Hall @ Rutgers. A loss here ends the Hall's chances.
Hofstra @ Northeastern. The Bracket Busters loss to Louisiana Tech probably killed them, but if they win out and then lose in the CAA tournament final they'd be in the conversation.
Anyway, last night UCONN got the big win they needed, knocking off #7 West Virginia 72-63 and suddenly vaulting themselves back into the NCAA bracket. Hmmm, let's take a look at UCONN's season:
1. Preseason projections have the team easily making the NCAA Tournament
2. Team fails to live up to projections
3. Team has to deal with off the court drama
4. Team whiffs on chances for good non-conference wins early in the season.
5. Team struggles in conference
6. Team loses on the road to a bottom of the conference foe
7. Team loses to Michigan
8. Team seems to be hitting their stride and gelling just as a top 10 team comes to town
9. Team beats said top 10 team in order to strengthen NCAA bid chances
Sound familiar? If they can do it, why not the Gophers?
Aside from the obvious, I mean.
BUBBLE GAMES OF NOTE:
New Mexico @ Colorado State - The Lobos are pretty much a guaranteed lock, but if anything can hurt them a loss against Colorado State could.
Georgetown @ Louisville - The Hoyas are already in, but Louisville needs to keep winning. They're in very good shape so a loss won't hurt and a win probably moves them into lock status.
Tennessee @ Florida - This is a very big game for Florida since they don't have much in the way of marquee wins. Beating the Vols probably moves them from the middle of the bubble to the top.
Northern Iowa @ Evansville. The only way UNI doesn't get an at-large is if they crash and burn coming down the stretch here. And losing to Evansville would be th every definition of crashing and burning.
Illinois @ Michigan. This is suddenly a very important game for the Illini because it's their last chance and getting an easy win (other than against the Gophers, obviously).
Old Dominion @ Georgia State. ODU probably has the resume to get in, but they can't afford a loss before the CAA tournament semis.
Seton Hall @ Rutgers. A loss here ends the Hall's chances.
Hofstra @ Northeastern. The Bracket Busters loss to Louisiana Tech probably killed them, but if they win out and then lose in the CAA tournament final they'd be in the conversation.
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