Game Preview: Gophers vs. Western Kentucky

For what it's worth, Western Kentucky is the Gophers biggest test at home in the non-conference this season.  So I guess I'll write a preview.  For what it's not worth, the Gophers are favored by 12.5.  This is not exactly a killer slate here.  And despite that spread, this team does have the potential to score an upset.  I'll explain why.

The two best ways to pull of an upset are to slow the game way down and limit the possessions, or to shoot and make an assload of three pointers.  Well, the Hilltoppers aren't really a slow it down team and the Gophers will probably speed them up so that's out, but they do shoot an assload of threes, so that's still in play.  As a matter of fact WKU had three guys shoot over 100 treys last season, and overall 39.7% of their FG attempts were from behind the 3-point line, a number that ranked 39th in the country.  That's about as often as mad bombers Michigan last season, though far less successfully.  

Two of those three gunslingers are back in guards Chris Harrison-Docks (9.9ppg, 36% from three) and T.J. Price (15.5ppg, 36% from three).  They're joined by a third guard in the starting lineup in Trency Jackson, who isn't shy from 3 either (10.2ppg, 32% on 62 three-point attempts) and he'll get more time as their third guard with the departure of that other 3-point shooter guy. Since the Gophers have shown the ability to get torched from three before, this does worry me.  

Of course, there is a dark side to these guards besides the possibility of them combining to shoot 2-18 from 3 in a game.  Check these numbers (per game last year):  Harrison-Docks 2.2 assists, 2.3 turnovers.  Price 1.9 assists, 2.1 turnovers.  Jackson 1.8 assists, 1.8 turnovers.  Those are the Hilltoppers three starting guards combining for 5.9 assists and 6.2 turnover per game.  Gross.  They did beat Austin Peay in the opener (who isn't very good) 77-70 and the three combined 8-15 from three (15-31 overall) with 6 assists (but 8 turnovers) so it looks like not much has changed.  They're gonna bomb, they're not really gonna pass, and they're going to be sloppy.  Hope those three don't get hot, and the rest should take care of itself.

They've got four bigs, but none should be much of a concern.  George Fant, who averaged 13.3 points and 6.6 rebounds per game last season, would be but he really struggled against high major opponents this year and Eliason, Walker, and Konate should have the size to overwhelm him at just 6-6 (though at 250 lbs. if he ends up with King on him he could become an issue.  Aleksej Rostov is the muscle (6-10, 225) who fits in well since he's a turnover machine.  Rob Marberry and Justin Johnson are the promising freshmen with good size (both 6-7 to 6-8 and 230-240 lbs.).  Marberry led the team in scoring off the bench last game, and Johnson turned down teams like Auburn, BC, and Providence to stay home and be a Hilltopper.  WKU overall has the size that they won't be overwhelmed, and they rebounded extremely well last year and have the same basic big man core, but their offense in the paint shouldn't be the main scariness.

That, as I said, remains guards who love to shoot and have little to no conscience.  Once chucker is always a little scary just in case he hits that zone.  Three is slightly terrifying.  For both teams.  It's all going to come down to how often the Gophers get WKU to turn it over and how many threes the Hilltoppers hit.  If either team can win both battles this game is all theirs.  Personally, I think it's a split with the Gophers forcing plenty of turnovers, but getting torched behind the arc as well.  Talent wins out:

Minnesota 70, WKU 61.  


[NOTE:  Even though Franklin Delano Pierce threw a scare into St Johns tonight I'm still not doing a preview on Thursday and you can't make me.]

Louisville 81, Gophers 68

Say la vee.  Anyone expecting the Gophers to win was probably a raging homer so this doesn't really come as a surprise, and they kept it from a being a blowout against a Final Four contender so that's a positive.  It's tough to get a true read on a game like tonight since there were one million fouls called and Louisville made free throws and the Gophers didn't, but there's still some things we can learn.  Here are 10 things I liked and didn't like about the Louisville game, with the caveat that this opponent was probably the best team the Gophers will face all season.

1.  Dre Hollins looked good.  Or should I say Andrew Hollins, which is what the pregame announcer called him during lineups.  Dre led the team with 22 points, and more importantly did it by getting to the rim as well as jump shots which was a slight concern I still had.  He took six threes versus nine twos which is a better ratio of 2s to 3s than he's had in his career and a sign that maybe he's decided attacking the rim is the way to go, which it is.  He hit a couple of floaters in the lane which is a shot I don't remember him having in his repertoire before and is a positive.  It also looks like he'll be playing strictly off the ball this year with Mathieu and Mason doing the ball handling.  This might be a negative for his NBA potential, but a definite positive for the Gophers and should lead to more and better scoring chances coming off picks.

2.  Mo Walker has a chance to be a real force.  Man did he look good.  Like basically every Gopher who matters he spent a chunk of the game in foul trouble so his numbers were maybe suppressed a bit (10 pts, 4 rebs on 5-7 shooting) but he is tough when he's in the paint.  A nice drop step and a nice looking lefty jump hook that could become a nice pet move, and his footwork combined with his size make it really hard for a defender to get into, and even more stay into, a good guarding position.  I'm getting ahead of myself here, but there's a chance Walker has become the type of player you can't defend one-on-one.  We won't know until he plays legit competition again which is in like a month, but I'm extremely positive on Mo right now.

3.  Nate Mason is legit. He was probably pressed into more minutes than Pitino (Richard not Rick) would like due to foul trouble (I guess) but the kid looked like a player.  He was a little shaky with the ball early which made me think he was a nervous freshman in a big spot, but he quickly overcame that and flashed some high level skills and a tremendous amount of confidence.  His first collegiate bucket came taking the ball basically coast-to-coast including a stutter step move that allowed him to blow right by quality defender Wayne Blackshear, and he's good enough already on the defensive end to stick with Chris Jones - or at least as well as anybody can.  He had five rebounds in 20 minutes, which is tremendous for a guard, and after some free throw troubles settled down to hit 6-10 on the night.  If he can give you that kind of defense and rebounding and continue getting to the line he's going to be an absolute steal for the Gophers.

4.  It's ok to play guys with more fouls than you'd like earlier than you'd like when needed.  I HATE THIS.  It's not just our Pitino to be sure since most coaches follow the sit down a guy with 2 fouls in the first half mantra, but it's not necessary.  When the offense has completely stagnated because your top two shot creators in Mathieu and Morris are both on the bench with two fouls you need to get them back in before Louisville goes on a 15-2 run.  I recognize it's prudent to try to keep your best players from becoming disqualified and not being around for crunch time, but sometimes it's more important to take a chance so maybe you can get to crunch time in a competitive position.  Ugh.

5.  Montrezl Harrell is ridiculous.  How unfair was it when Harrell hit that three pointer as the first basket of the game?  I practically did a double take.  Harrell's game was always pretty much paint oriented, but I guess he worked his ass off to become a jump shooter and man that just isn't fair.  He went 3-4 from three and hit at least one other jumper, all in addition to complete dominating the glass and the paint on his way to a 30 point, 7 rebound night.  Granted, the Gophers don't have anyone who can match up with him as the only guy who could maybe do it physically is a freshman and everyone else is either too small (King) or too slow (Walker and Eliason), but he certainly took advantage.  Then again, there aren't too many players who can match up with him in the nation period.  He could very well be the best player in the country.  Super impressive.

6.  Carlos Morris is going to be an adventure.  When I wrote after the UMD exhibition game I said that Morris looks like he believes he can score on every position, but that I meant that in a good way.  I still hold that same sentiment, even after an off game.  He shot just 3-9 in this one and took some horrendous shots along the way, not to mention forcing drives where they weren't going to work.  It's hard as hell going from JuCo defenders and UMD to Louisville so it wasn't a surprise watching Morris struggle, but a big key to the season might be if Morris can adjust his game to be a more efficient and effective scorer against better defenses.  The Gophers still need his ability to create offense, but he just has to do it in the flow of the offense, transition or half court.  And no more contest long twos.

7.  Crappy long 2-point jumpers are not how you win games.  A lot of this is due to Louisville's stellar defense, but man did the Gophers take a lot of crappy shots.  When the Gophers got out in transition and ran they did fine, but in the half court it was pretty brutal.  The worst was when Mathieu, Walker, and Morris were all on the bench with two fouls in the first half (the horror!) and the Gophers simply could not initiate any kind of offense.  Hollins came around in the second half just fine, but in the first he was very passive (I actually made the note "Hollins passive" but the second half wiped it out) and there was just no offense going on at all.  Seemed more like a Tubby offense than a Pitino offense, but I suppose it doesn't really matter what you draw up if nobody can get inside that damn defense.  Though it would be nice to at least work the ball around a bit rather than throwing that crappy long 2 up with 20 seconds left on the shot clock (*coughMorriscough*).

8.  Josh Martin and Bakary Konate had rough intros to college ball.  Granite, making your debut in a modified aircraft hanger in stifling hot weather in a foreign country against one of the best teams in the country is probably pretty tough, but yikes.  They only played 10 total minutes, but in that time managed a couple of turnovers, a few bad fouls, several horrible defensive rotations, and Konate put up the single worst shot of the night by throwing up a half contested 18.5 foot jumper that shockingly didn't go in.  I'm not worried about either freshmen as I'm sure they'll be fine against normal, human teams, I'm just saying it wasn't pretty.  Even if it's understandable ugly is still ugly.  Like a chick hit in the face with a frying pan.

9.  The free throws, my god the free throws.  The Gophers ended up hitting 20 of 33 free throws which is a horrible 61%, and they only got to that number by getting hot at the end.  In a game with one billion fouls called it was maddening every time the Gophers got a chance at the line to help narrow the gap and ended up clanging away two free points again and again and yes I'm looking at you Nate Mason.  I think the team was 8-18 at one point, and even if I'm making that up it was something similarly horrible to that.  I'm sure it's stupid for a middle aged white nerd sitting on his couch to say how easy free throws are, but I'm going to anyway because I hit 83% in my high school career.  I guess what I'm saying is, I probably could have played division I high major college ball.  Probably.

10.  I don't know what to say about Joey King.  He clearly tries hard.  He's changed himself from a perimeter obsessed mincing nancy to someone who does his best to be a real life power forward, and that's really admirable.  He tries to bang around in the lane, tries to be a big time rebounder, gives it his all defensively, and has actually become a halfway decent scorer in the lane, and he still has his not horrible jumper.  He really tries, but man there are times when his physical limitations are just glaring, like against Louisville.  Anyone the Cardinals ran out there just ran and jumped circles around King, or pushed him around, or in the case of Harrell did all three.  I've stopped hating him, but man it can be tough to watch when he's just getting brutalized and there's nothing he can do about it.


All in all the Gophers stuck pretty close with a Final Four contender and didn't roll over and die when it would have been pretty easy to just give up.  I don't know how anyone can't be happy with that.  Now we move on.  Three games this week, but only Western Kentucky in the home opener Tuesday night is likely to put up any kind of fight.  Then comes the big Thanksgiving tournament in New York, where they'll play St. John's and either Georgia or Gonzaga.  Need to go 1-1 at worst.

I'll try to get a preview up for WKU, but no promises.  I will not be doing a preview for Bernard Pierce or Mildred Pierce or whatever.  I do have some standards.

Gophers vs. Louisville Preview

Well here we go.  Nothing like hitting the ground running someone said once probably.  Friday brings the coolest opener the Gophers have ever participated in when they take on #8 Louisville in Puerto Rico.

Louisville has basically turned into a basketball machine and this year should be more of the same, but there are some questions, particularly in the back court.  Russdiculous is gone and he was basically the team's rock (not to mention leading scorer at 18.2 per game), and Luke Hancock is gone from the back court as well and he was the team's third leading scorer (12.3ppg) is gone as well.  Those two hit 138 threes between the two of them last season, almost half the Cardinals' total.

Chris Jones is back though, and he's a nearly perfect guard for a Rick Pitino team.  He's absurdly quick, and if the Gophers play a lot of zone he's going to absolutely murder them by getting into the lane over and over - you watch.  He also ended up with the 8th best steal rate in the country, so he could wreck some shit, particularly against a Gopher team that struggles taking care of the ball.  Wayne Blackshear returns as well and should jump into Hancock's role as wing bomber.

Then there's the newcomers who can help fill in - PG Quentin Snider and wing Shaqquan Aaron.  Snider was ranked by ESPN as the #5 incoming point guard for 2014 (he also briefly may have considered the Gophers).  He's going to be ridiculous by the time he leaves Louisville, hopefully he'll be shaky given that it's his first game.  When he gets his feat under him he and Jones could be the next Napier/Boatright or Smith/Siva back court with two 1.5's rather than a true 1 or 2.  Aaron is a big guard who was genetically engineered for the fast break.  I read one possible issue is he's so used to having the ball in his hands from his high school days he may struggle moving without the ball in a new role.  Hopefully he'll stand around a lot and do mostly nothing. [NOTE:  looks like he'll do nothing.  Nailed it.]

In the paint the Gophers will probably get physically murdered by Montrezl Harrell who could have gone to the NBA and right now I wish he would have.  He's an absolute monster at 6-8, 240 lbs. of pure muscle who averaged 14 points and 8.5 rebounds per game last year while shooting north of 60%.  He doesn't exactly have a jump shot, but when you look like Mr. Sandman you don't need one.

This is basically him.

The Gophers who have the size to check him are Eliason, Walker, and Martin (though I would be hesitant to use the freshman on him much), but next to Harrell Louisville can roll out 6-10 Mangok Mathiang or any one of a trio of talented freshmen in 6-10 Chinanu Onuaku (#9 center in the class per ESPN), 7-1 Anas Mahmoud (#12 center and possibly almost a Gopher), or 7-2 Matz Stockman (the #19 center), not to mention 6-9 freshman Jaylen Johnson (#24 PF).  Granted these guys mostly freshmen and unproven (Mathiang played about 15 minutes per game last year), but as Benjamin Franklin once said you can't teach size, and somebody is going to have to handle a very tall man.  Assuming Pitino (the good one) wants to avoid playing Eliason and Walker together that means either Joey King or Martin will have to guard Harrell or a gigantic center, depending on how he wants to split it.  This is a thing I am not looking forward to, as I'm pretty sure Harrell could dunk over King without actually noticing he was there.

Basically Louisville has the size advantage and the speed advantage (the Gophers are getting better, but they aren't there yet), and their pressing, attacking defense causes a whole boat load of turnovers (#2 in the country last year) while the Gophers, despite an experienced back court, were a turnover machine last season.  But I still think our favorite team has a chance.  Louisville has a solid foundation in Jones and Harrell, but they're folding in a lot of new pieces this year while the Gophers are relatively stable.  In order to run the kind of system both Pitinos like you need good communication and a good grasp of where to go and where to be, especially against another team who is willing and able to run and gun, or you end up out of position and giving up easy shots in transition (remember the lay-up line that was Arkansas last year?).  The Gophers best hope is probably to run with Louisville and hope they're better prepared than the Cardinals.

Will it happen?  Although it's possible I don't see it.  The two teams want to play the same way, but one team has the better athletes, more size, the better coach (FOR NOW!), and simply fit the system better.  The Gophers only advantage is more continuity, but much of that is negated by Pitino Sr's coaching, because he's still one of the best.  I keep picturing that Arkansas game I mentioned above, but I keep seeing the Gophers as the Gophers, not as Arkansas.

Louisville 88, Minnesota 74.

[note: just learned Shaqquan Aaron is not eligible as of yet for Louisville.  This changes nothing, except for how this preview now looks stupid like your face and your mom.]

Big 10 Chucker Power Ranking Preview

Hi friends.  It's time we do a little something new, and a little something fun here at DWG, and that's celebrate my love of chuckers.  Who doesn't love the guy who comes in the game for 11 minutes and gets up 15 shots, making 3?  Who doesn't love the guard who thinks he has to do everything for his team and ends up with 7 assists and 90 turnovers on the season?  It's annoying when you're playing with that guy at the park or the Y, it's maddening when he's on your team, but when it's an opposing player?  Good freaking times, as anyone who remembers watching Morgan State's Reggie Holmes will remember.

To quickly recap, Holmes played four years at shooting guard for Morgan State and lived up to the position's name.  He averaged 15.4 points per game in his career, including 21.4 his senior season.  He did this while shooting a dismal 38% from the floor over those four years, which yes, means he shot the ball a shit load - 15.8 times per game his senior year and 12.1 over his career, good enough to finish 3rd All-Time in career MEAC shot attempts after finishing top 3 in each of his final three years.  He topped it off by refusing to pass, putting up just 76 career assists in four seasons for a whopping 0.6 per game average.  This versus 156 turnovers which is actually a really good number for someone who handled the ball that much but it looks silly compared to his assist number.  Reggie Holmes might have been the most perfect chucker ever.  We're looking for the next one.

This season I'll be doing a ranking each week of the top chuckers.  I haven't decided if it'll be a week-to-week thing or a running season long ranking, but likely it will be a blend of both.  I also was trying to come up with some kind of chucker formula, but I realized it's the kind of thing you can't really define, you just know it when you see it - like a penguin.  Anyway, there are four things that go into making a really good chucker, in descending order of importance:

1.  Takes a ton of shots.  A ton.  It doesn't matter if the guy plays 35 minutes or 10, it's all about how many times you can jack that pill towards the goal.

2.  Is a terrible shooter.  Someone who shoots a ton but makes a respectable amount is just a good player.  It's gotta be someone who just clangs clangs clangs bricks all over the place who makes you say geez we should gather up all these bricks and build a shelter for the homeless so your mother has a place to stay tonight.  Seriously, I want your mother and sister out of my house.

3.  Hates passing.  Yogi Ferrell shoots the ball like a chucker, but he ruins the whole thing by passing a lot (and actually he's a little too accurate throwing the ball in the direction of the hoop to really qualify).  You need a guy who feels a little bit physically ill when he gives up the ball.  If you see a guy refuse to pass out of a double team in a situation where the other team is trying to foul because he wants those free throws and those precious, precious points you may be looking at a primo chucker.

4.  Turns the ball over a lot.  This is the least important of the four, but it still counts.  A lot of chuckers don't turn the ball over much because they basically shoot it before they catch it, and most chuckers love that ball more than their mother so they're loathe to give it up to an opponent (or a teammate).  But there are others who rack up the TOs by trying to dribble through people or make fancy stupid passes.  Those guys are sweet.

It's rare to find someone who hits all four but we're going to try.

So in this preview I'm going to cover your potential top chuckers in the Big Ten.  Although the power rankings will cover all of college basketball I'm just going to do our favorite conference here because seriously there are a lot of teams in D-I.

I looked all the players last year and dug out those who took more than 20% of their team's shots when they were on the floor (so more than their share) and who put up an effective field goal percentage of less than 50% (metric to smooth in 3-pointers since 50% from 2 and 33% from 3 are equivalent).  I didn't use true shooting percentage since it folds in free throws and I don't want to miss out on someone good/bad who shoots 95% from the line or something.  Plus most chuckers are good free throwers because they want all the points, and those are good ways to get easy points.

So without further ado, here are my top candidates for B10 Chucker of the Year Award.

1.  TRE DEMPS, Northwestern (26.3% shots, 45.7 eFG%).  Nearly a perfect chucker, with that great chucker mentality that he can make every shot, no shot is a bad shot, and that his range is infinity (note: it's actually less than that).  With Drew Crawford gone there'll be even more shots available for him to poach.  If he can push his shot rate to 30% and continue to convert at the same levels the award is his for the taking.  The prohibitive favorite to win.

BEST GAME LY:  5pts on 1-10 shooting (0-5 from 3) with 2 assists and 2 turnovers vs. Penn State.

2.  JOHN JOHNSON, Penn State (22.6% shots, 45.6% eFG%).  He transferred into Penn State last year from Pitt with a reputation as a shooter, and though he shot plenty when he was on the court he didn't shoot well, hitting just 32% from three and 44% from two.  With Tim Frazier gone he should see a few more minutes, and though he shot more twos than threes last year (69 vs. 66) hopefully he'll take on more of the perimeter shooting burden and throw up a bunch of bricks.

BEST GAME LY:  3pts on 1-8 shooting with 2 assists and 2 turnovers vs. Siena.

3.  MARC LOVING, Ohio State (23.2% shots, 43.2% eFG%).  He's a bit under the radar since he played just 11 minutes per game last year, but those chucker statistics are sweet.  With LaQuinton Ross (31% of shots), Lenzelle Smith (23%), and Aaron Craft (15%) gone there are a whole lot of shots available this season.  The Buckeyes have a lot of other talent, both returning and new, so there's no guarantee he morphs into a chucker supreme, but here's hoping he decides he needs to be THE MAN and does just that.

BEST GAME LY:  No one game stands out since his minutes were so limited, but he did go on an 0-12 three pointer streak mid-conference spanning 14 games.

4.  BRYSON SCOTT, Purdue (23.1% shots, 37.4% eFG%).  Purdue is an interesting case seeing as they had six players last year who fit the chucker criteria (which explains why they were so terrible).  The good news is three of those six are now gone, so somebody is going to be a fixture in the chucker rankings and the best bet is Scott and his horrendous 36% 2-point field goal percentage.  He didn't shoot many threes last year (just 13) and hit a respectable 39%, so here's hoping he decides to shoot more and does it more poorly.  That eFG% is a thing of beauty, worst among all the qualified chuckers last season.

BEST GAME LY:  13pts on 4-13 shooting with 3 assists and 5 turnovers vs. Washington State

5.  RAYVONTE RICE, Illinois (28.2% shots, 48.1% eFG%).  I don't love having him on here since he does so much for that team, but his chucker numbers are fantastic, not to mention a pathetically low assist rate for a guard who has the ball in his hands so much (11%, 1.5 per game).  With all the talent the Illini have already and the 3 new key pieces there might be too many mouths to feed for a true chucker to emerge, but I have faith that his chuckerish instincts will prevail.  It's really too bad Tracy Abrams blew out his knee, because he had even better numbers (24% shots, 38% eFG%).  That's one to stash away for your chucker keeper league.

BEST GAME LY:  19pts on 7-21 (1-5 on threes) shooting with 1 turnover vs. Wisconsin, or 8pts on 2-11 (1-4 on threes) shooting with 2 assists and 2 turnovers vs. Northwestern, or 10 points on 3-13 (1-5 threes) shooting with 1 assist and 2 turnovers vs. Nebraska.

6.  PETER JOK, Iowa (25.1% shots, 48.4% eFG%).  Another off the bench chucker, but this one doesn't have as clear a path to more playing time since Iowa's guards are all back so he'll have to do his damage in a limited time - which he can.  Twice last season he had more field goal attempts than minutes played in a game, which is both terrifying and admirable.

BEST GAME LY:  3pts on 1-6 shooting (1-4 from 3) in 5 minutes (5 minutes!) vs. Villanova.

7.  DRE HOLLINS, Minnesota (24.7% shots, 47.0% eFG%).  Don't pretend like this can't happen, I mean look at those chucker stats - they're legit.  Last year Hollins got a bit too comfy shooting jumpers instead of trying to get to the rim, and though it's easy to believe it was mostly injury related, what if it wasn't?  What if he decides to let Mathieu and Mason do the driving and he just wants to fire away from the outisde?  He finished out the year (last 6 games) 14-63, which is 22%, and put up some chuckeriffic games in that stretch.  I hope he falls off this list quickly.

BEST GAME LY:  8pts on 2-14 shooting (2-7 from 3) with no assists and 2 turnovers vs. Wisconsin

8.  TRAVIS TRICE (18.4% shots, 54.8% eFG%) or DENZEL VALENTINE (16.9% shots, 48.9% eFG%), Michigan State.  Keith Appling, Adreian Payne, and Gary Harris are all gone which means someone has to step up offensively and both the freshmen and most of the returnees are pretty meh.  There are three clear guys who need to have big years and that's Trice, Valentine, and Branden Dawson.  Dawson is too efficient to end up on this list so it's either going to be Trice or Valentine.  Neither qualified last year under my completely arbitrary criteria, but the team dynamic is so different I have faith one of these two is going to become a trainwreck.  Smart money is on Valentine since he just seems more likely to become overconfident, but it's pretty close to 50/50.  OMG what if it's both?  That would be awesome, as Chris Farley once said.

BEST GAMES LY:  Trice - not a high volume shooter, but 0pts on 0-5 shooting (0-3 from 3) with 2 assists and 3 turnovers in just 16 minutes vs. Georgetown shows some potential.  Valentine - also not high volume last year, but I do like his 3pts on 1-6 shooting (1-5 from 3) with 4 assists and 5 turnovers vs. Illinois game.

9.  STANFORD ROBINSON, Indiana (22.6% shots, 45.8 eFG%).  Yogi Ferrell is gonna shoot a ton because Yogi be Yogi and Crean be Crean and there's a bunch of other talent on the perimeter coming in so he could be squeezed for minutes, but Robinson has some real potential, especially if he shoots more threes (3-16 last year).  He shoots more twos than I'd like (149 vs. 16) and is a little too efficient (48%), hence the low rating, but getting suspended for failing a drug test is a good start to the year.  I don't know that drugs and chucking correlate, but it seems like it's probably not a bad sign.

BEST GAME LY:  0pts on 0-7 shooting with 2 assists and 3 turnovers vs. Purdue.  No one should have had their worst game (best game) vs. Purdue last year.

10.  TERRAN PETTAWAY, Nebraska (32% shots, 48.2% eFG%).  Seems pretty silly to have him here given he's a top candidate for player of the year in the conference, but it's hard to ignore that shot % number of 32%, which is the kind of number usually reserved for small conference stars.  The only major conference guys with a higher shot % last year were Marshall Henderson (maybe the best chucker in history) and Jabari Parker (just dominated the ball, but efficiently).  Nebraska's rotation should be relatively unchanged this season, but the guys lost did shoot a ton so it's possible Pettaway takes his shot percentage number into another stratosphere.  Considering most of his value comes from his scoring if he has a bad shooting year man it could be epic.

BEST GAME LY:  13pts on 5-18 shooting (1-6 from 3) with 3 assists and 3 turnovers vs. Illinois.  


This is gonna be great.

Gophers 95, UMD 68

I couldn't go to the game against UMD, so for some reason that I'm not sure about but probably has to do with zero willpower and being kind of an idiot, I broke down and ordered BTN Plus for the month just so I could watch the game.  Or sort of watch the game.  I also had to pay attention to my damn wiener kids, try to see some of the Cincy/Cleveland game because gambling, and we were watching American Horror Story on the big tv.  So I would say I saw 60% of the game.  Here are 60% of my thoughts.

1.  I think I like Carlos Morris.  He's a little bit herky-jerky offensively, but it's also in a smooth way if that makes any sense at all.  Think Vincent Grier or Shawn Marion.  He led the team with 23 points last night and was super aggressive offensively looking for his shot.  The 0-4 three point calls into question his jumper, which was already in question, and dominating less athletic, less skilled players is basically what he did in JuCo so this game was tailor made for him, but I still mostly liked what I saw.  On the offensive side of the ball, that is.  Defensively.......

2.  The team defense was absolutely horrendous.  UMD should not score nearly 70 points on 45.5% shooting against this team.  But they did.  The defense was brutal in every single way.  Players were getting beat to the rim, the rotations were slow, often Gopher defenders were completely out of position (this happened to Morris at least 70 times last night, which means he's going to make me insane this year), and at times UMD was even in better rebounding position when they in no way should have been.  The Gophers got away with it because they were bigger, stronger, faster, better, and pretty much outclassed UMD in every way, but both the effort and technical parts of defense were sorely lacking, and it wasn't hard to imagine how Iowa State (allegedly) put up 100 on them in that secret (not secret) scrimmage.  Or to imagine Louisville blowing their doors off.  I am 44% less excited for that game now.

3.  Daquein McNeil looks legit.  McNeil led both teams in scoring in the big intrasquad scrimmage and he looked the part again last night, coming off the bench to score 15 points on 6-7 shooting.  Hard to believe a FIU recruit who tagged along with Richard Pitino because he needed to make sure he filled his roster now looks like a bona fide weapon off the bench in the Big Ten.  But forget the shooting for a minute, there was a moment towards the end of the game which was more important.  The Gophers had their last five in to wrap up the game and McNeil ended up at point guard since Nate Mason was hurt and didn't play.  He took the ball, dribbled it up with a distinct swagger, made a move and drove right by his man and then dished off when help came for a Josh Martin dunk.  It was beautiful, and if he's that confident, I'm that confident.

4.  Elliott Eliason is still who he is.  If you had hoped Eliason would develop a hook shot or a good drop step or a step back jumper or some kind of pet move it appears, based solely on last night, that you're out of luck.  I'm not complaining.  He brings some legit rim protection and is a high end rebounder and fills an absolutely necessary role for a Big Ten team and does it well so no complaints.  I wondered if we'd see a little more going into his last year.  Hopefully we still do.

5.  Josh Martin is going to be your energy guy.  You could probably already tell from his spastic nature on twitter and in interviews, but Martin is bundle of energy.  He will also bring the house down a few times with some spectacular dunks, as the scouting reports touting his jumping and athleticism were not exaggerating.  He completely outclassed UMD in those regards and was able to get a bunch of dunks, and his baseline cuts are going to become a fixture this year, but he didn't show much polish (didn't have to) so I'm curious to see what kind of game he can bring against a more legit opponent.  Also, I guarantee every other Big Ten fan base is going to hate him by the end of his four years.

6.  Offensive aggressiveness overall was good.  Dre and Dre were looking to attack the rim, and Joey King was always looking for a shot, not to mention Carlos Morris pretty clearly thinks he can score any time he has the ball and I mean that in a good way.  I'm still worried about Dre Hollins and hope that he continues looking to drive once they start playing the real teams, but last night was encouraging.  If Nate Mason is what we think he is that gives the Gophers six players (including McNeil) who look to get to the rim, a handful of shooters, a legit low post scorer and defender (two different guys unfortunately), Josh Martin who's going to do some spectacular things, both good and bad, and whatever the get from Bakary Konate who I manged to not notice at all in his 13 minutes last night.  Pretty solid.

Things get real in a hurry with the opener against Louisville just a week away.  I fear the Gophers are going to get killed, but they've surprised me with some big wins in the past in similar early season games so I hope I'm wrong.  Should be a fun season.  Let's rock and or roll.

Big Ten Basketball Preview: #1 Wisconsin Badgers

I truly hate to say this, you know I do, but the Badgers are by far the best team in the conference and it isn't particularly close.  I just wrote about how Ohio State has all that crazy talent, but the Badgers were an excellent team last year and have basically the entire squad back.  This is usually where I might bash them for not having that much talent on paper and stuff, but at this point that's just stupid.  Bo Ryan might never win the recruiting awards or whatever, but he knows how to get players to run his boring system and he knows how to take guys who seem like stiffs for two years suddenly blossom when he needs them to.  I can no longer deny his wizardry or his ugly grinch face, but I sure don't have to like it.

Frank Kaminsky is the best example this year, following in the footsteps of all the other ugly white stiffs and becoming a star.  Two years ago Kaminsky averaged just 10 minutes per game, shot 44% from the floor, and averaged just 4.2 points and 1.8 rebounds per game.  Then Berggren, Evans, and Bruesewitz graduated, and he suddenly averaged 13.9 points and 6.3 rebounds per game and won Big Ten honors.  It's some kind of horrible circle of life.  Well he's back, and despite being the best player on the team he's probably third in talent level, because Nigel Hayes (conference sixth man of the year as a freshman last season) and Sam Dekker are poised to breakout.  

We said the same thing about Dekker last year, and although his improvement wasn't exactly a breakout, it was a step in the right direction (from 9.6 to 12.4 points per game and from 3.4 to 6.1 rebounds).  It did come with a minute increase though, from 22 to 29 per game, and his advanced stats were basically stagnant from last season, other than rebounding.  Wisconsin's only major loss is Ben Brust, and although they have the pieces to pick up his minutes Dekker may see more time with the ball - this can only help.  Hayes is one of my favorites in the conference already, if I could have a favorite who played for Wisconsin, which I cannot.  He doesn't fit the Badger model at all since he's an athletic beast, but he's smart and fundamentally sound so he works.  He's also a defensive terror, which they like.  He doesn't have the three-point shot Sconnie loves, but he does have a smooth jumper out to the perimeter so it wouldn't surprise me if he develops it eventually, maybe this year.  He's going to be First Team All-Big Ten eventually.

Like I said, Brust is gone, but Josh Gasser (8.8ppg/1.9apg), Traevon Jackson (10.7/4.0), and Bronson Koenig (3.5/1.1) are all back so there's no shortage of perimeter players.  Jackson has turned himself into an awfully good point guard by learning to score while becoming a better distributor at the same time, and Gasser was basically back to the same player he was three years ago prior to his knee injury, so he'll look to take another step forward and take on some of Brust's scoring from last season.

Pretty solid lineup:  Jackson, Gasser, Dekker, Hayes, and Kaminsky.  This is going to suck.


OTHER PREVIEWS:
#2 OHIO STATE BUCKEYES
#3 NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS
#4 MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS
#5 ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI
#6 MICHIGAN
#7 MICHIGAN STATE
#8 IOWA HAWKEYES
#9 MARYLAND TERRAPINS
#10 INDIANA HOOSIERS
#11 PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS
#12 NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS
#13 PURDUE BOILERMAKERS
#14 RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS

Big Ten Basketball Preview: #2 Ohio State Buckeyes

In typical Thad Matta fashion the Buckeyes lose a ton from last year's team.  The three top scorers from last year are gone in LaQuinton Ross (15.2 ppg, also led the team in rebounding), Lenzelle Smith (11.0ppg, also led in 3-pointers), and annoying yet admittedly valuable Aaron Craft (9.8 ppg, also led in assists and steals).  I mean, that's a team that's been gutted.  Unfortunately, in true Thad Matta fashion, Ohio State is going to be loaded again anyway.  The #1 ranked recruiting class in the conference this year (#8 nationally) will join the #2 class last year (on a per player, basis) along with the probably top available transfer who is immediately eligible and the Buckeyes will keep rolling.  Great.

The one guy who could be fun to watch is Marc Loving, who is going to end up near the top of my B10 Chucker Power Ratings if I actually end up doing that which I plan on but I'm pretty lazy.  Loving, a 6-7 wing who ranked as the 62nd best recruit in 2013 averaged about 5 points per game last season in 11 minutes per game.  More importantly, he took 23% of the Buckeyes' shots when he was on the floor last season while shooting 37% from the floor including just 26% from three.  I don't want to get too excited here since there is so much other talent here that could end up screwing this up, but those numbers are fantastic indicators when it comes to Chucker potential, which we all know is the second most entertaining thing that can happen in basketball behind Circus Ball.  The departure of LaQuinton Ross, Lenzelle Smith, and Aaron Craft opens up 426 shots from lasts season.  I think Loving has real potential to reach 30% of the team's shots when he's on the court, a number reached only by Ross and Terran Petteway last season, though more efficiently.  This has a chance to be a truly special season.

Of course there are plenty of people who will try to get in the way of that and help the Buckeyes win games more efficiently.  There are the returning contributors:  center Amir Williams (8pts/6rebs/2blks per) who is kind of a stiff offensively but is a defensive force, wing Sam Thompson (8pts/3rebs) who is crazy athletic but is kind of Rodney Williams-ish in that he's still waiting to put all that talent together, and point guard Shannon Scott (8pts/3.5asts/2stls) who was overshadowed by Craft but might actually have been a better defensively.  It wouldn't surprise me if any of these guys ended up leading the Buckeyes in scoring since they all have the talent and the opportunity is there.  If I'm guessing I'd put Scott the most likely to break out and Williams the least, but nothing would surprise me.

Then there's the freshman:  Kameron Williams (#58 overall/#13 shooting guard in 2013), Jae'Sean Tate (#28/#8 small forward in '14), Keita Bates-Diop (#22/#6 small forward), and especially De'Angelo Russell (#13/#1 shooting guard).  I mean, I agree that's an annoying amount of punctuation in the middle of those names, but that is a damn talented group being added to an already talented group.  Russell could be a one and done type of talent, and with Diop and Loving both at 6-7 they'll have a ton of positional flexibility.  If the freshman come together quickly enough and the returnees are improved that's one hell of a top 8, and considering Thad Matta generally goes only six or seven deep this team is plenty talented.

Oh, right, and in case you forgot they also signed transfer Anthony Lee from Temple who will be immediately eligible thanks to that graduate transfer rule that is well intentioned but is really just taken advantage of as a loophole for players who outperform initial expectations to jump to better schools.  Lee is a 6-9 power forward who averaged 14 points and 9 rebounds for the Owls last season and was pretty much regarded as the top available transfer on the market this offseason after putting up eleven double-doubles last year.  So the Buckeyes second five will probably be Williams (#58 freshman - redshirt), Tate (#28 freshman), Diop (#22 freshman), Loving (sophomore, #62 last year), and Trey McDonald (senior center).  That's probably a top 5 Big 10 team right there.  These guys just don't stop.

Oh, and they already have three Top 100 guys signed for next season.  Good stuff.


OTHER PREVIEWS:
#3 NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS
#4 MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS
#5 ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI
#6 MICHIGAN
#7 MICHIGAN STATE
#8 IOWA HAWKEYES
#9 MARYLAND TERRAPINS
#10 INDIANA HOOSIERS
#11 PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS
#12 NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS
#13 PURDUE BOILERMAKERS
#14 RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS

Big Ten Basketball Preview: #3 Nebraska Cornhuskers

I thought this was going to feel weird and yep, it sure does.  Nebraska, third in the Big 10.  Wow, crazy.  At the same time it makes sense though.  The Huskers finished fourth in the conference last season and return nearly everybody from that team.  They were 11-7 in conference play and beat Ohio State and Michigan State at home.  I mean this is serious, people.  Tim Miles is obviously some kind of wizard, and it doesn't look like it's stopping any time soon because he's already inked two ESPN Top 100 dudes for 2015 (Ed Morrow, #62, and Glynn Watson, #66).  Seriously what a jerk.

The main reason Nebraska is going to be good this year is the return of Terran Petteway, one of only two All-Big Ten first teamers back this season, and his 18.1 points per game.  I love this guy's game.  At 6-6 he's the perfect size and has the perfect athleticism and ball handling skills to create his own shot whenever he wants, he can rebound (4.8 per game) and distribute a little bit (1.6 assists per game, but assist rate that was second on the team), and he has a perimeter game.  Of course, he only shot 33% from three which is acceptable but not great when you're taking nearly five per game on average.  If he's figured out the three-pointer this team suddenly has Sweet 16 potential, and sleeper ability to go further.  Not joking.

Another guy who could really help out the team by hitting more accurately from deep is Nebraska's other wing Shavon Shields, who hit less than 32% last season.  He's got a nice all around game that compliments Petteway (12.8 ppg/5.8 rpg/1.6apg), and the two of them give Nebraska a potential 1-2 punch that's up there with anyone else in the conference, even if neither of them are dead-eye from deep.  With Ray Gallegos, who you may remember from when he torched the Gophers two years ago for 30 points and 6 made three-pointers, and his 54 made 3s gone from the team this year somebody needs to give the Huskers a boost from outside, and it's likely Petteway or Shields.

Of course, things aren't all that desperate because Walter Pitchford is back at power forward and he hit at a 41% clip last season.  He's not some dandy either, with about a 50/50 two-pointer/three-pointer split and a defensive rebound rate that's up there as one of the top in the conference.  That high three-point conversion and a 54% 2-point percentage makes him one of the most efficient players in the B10.   The Huskers did get hit by a bit of blow when returning senior PF Leslee Smith went down for the year with a knee tear.  He's not much for scoring but he supplied rebounding and defense and they'll have to find a way to replace that production.  Senior David Rivers and incoming freshman Jacob Hammond will have to come up big.  There's also some grad transfer guy from Georgetown who was terrible there so who knows.

The main question for the Huskers is really at PG, where Tai Webster didn't really live up to expectations last season (4 pts/2 assists per game in 23 minutes).  The only other PGs on the roster are undersized Benny Parker (5-9) who is better served as a mini offensive energy explosion off the bench (think Microwave) and freshman Tarin Smith who may not be ready and is just 165 lbs. at 6-2 which won't really cut it right away in the Big Ten.  Webster is from New Zealand and I read somewhere last season that somebody said if he had been in the US he'd be a top 50 recruit, but that certainly didn't play out last season.  I know I already said Petteway could elevate this team another level, but Webster is probably the most important player for Nebraska this year.  Watson should be a stud PG next season and Rivers and G-Town guy are the only seniors, but Petteway could bolt to the NBA so it'd be good for them to make a run this year.

Look I don't know.  Even after writing all that it still seems weird to have Nebraska predicted to finish in third place in the conference, but after reading all that it completely makes sense.  They have a great coach, a program on the rise, a ton of experience back, and one of the top players in the conference returning.  Honestly if it wasn't Nebraska they could even go one place higher, but I'm just not ready to do it yet.  I just can't.  Hell of a turnaround by Miles though.  Gonna suck for them when Pitino and the Gophers dominate the conference every year eventually when that happens.  When not if.

OTHER PREVIEWS:
#4 MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS
#5 ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI
#6 MICHIGAN
#7 MICHIGAN STATE
#8 IOWA HAWKEYES
#9 MARYLAND TERRAPINS
#10 INDIANA HOOSIERS
#11 PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS
#12 NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS
#13 PURDUE BOILERMAKERS
#14 RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS

Big Ten Basketball Preview: #4 Minnesota Golden Gophers

Hell I don't know.  This feels both overly optimistic and totally right, so it's probably viciously wrong but I'm going with it.  Every team I have ranked below the Gophers either has serious questions or serious flaws, and it's not like the Gophers are perfect or anything, but they're more settled than almost every team in the conference, aren't they?  AREN'T THEY?  They have 64% of their minutes back from last year, which I'm guessing without doing the math is fourth behind Wisconsin, Nebraska, and Penn State.  They have their starting back court back, which can only be said by them Iowa, and kind of Northwestern and kind of Nebraska.  They also have forwards and centers and stuff back.  I hate being optimistic, but I'm optimistic.

The back court with Dre Hollins and DeAndre Mathieu might be the best in the conference.  We all know Dre was a bit off last year after the ankle injury as he pretty much turned into a jump shooter, taking just 17% of his shots at the rim last year, which also dragged his field goal percentage down to a career low 38%.  In fact, Hollins didn't make over 50% of his shots in any one of the team's last 7 games, and actually he shot just 24% from the floor during the team's NIT run.  Obviously his health and return to form is going to be the major key to the Gophers' season.  We know we don't have to worry about Mathieu, who is completely awesome and unstoppable in every way.  If he looks for and improves his outside shot he's going to be an absolute star.  I love him so much.  Freshman Nate Mason sounds like a really fun player and should be able to fill in at either guard spot.

The paint is mostly set too, with the two headed monster of Elliott Eliason and Mo Walker at center.  If the Gophers can get first half of season Elliott and second half of season Walker that's going to be one hell of a tandem.  That out of nowhere five game run where Mo averaged 14 and 6 was pretty much the most fun thing about last year (besides Honey Gopher, of course) and the fact that it didn't come against the patsies but in the heart of the Big Ten schedule tells me he's for real.  Hopefully Eliason's late season swoon isn't, or the Gophers will need more from freshman Bakary Konate than they're likely planning on, although early reports on him are positive.

Forward is where the questions lie with Minnesota, though there's plenty of bodies it's more how they'll fit.  In an ideal world newcomers Carlos Morris and Josh Martin would be able to step in and start with Joey King paying his "offense off the bench" sixth man role and Konate, Charles Buggs, and Daquein McNeil, who will also add minutes at the 2, backing them up with Gaston Diedhiou hopefully getting himself eligible for the second semester.  I think it's more likely King starts the season as the starting power forward which I don't love as he's a tweener between a 3 and 4 so it's not a perfect fit wherever you put him.  He did clearly work last year to improve his power forward type of skills and you could see the positive results by season's end, so hopefully he's been doing more work.  And getting like, more faster and jumpy and stuff.

Yep, Gophers still have plenty of questions, but they also have more answers than an awful lot of teams in the Big Ten.  It feels very strange writing something this positive, and even though I believe it I also don't believe the Gophers could possibly finish 4th in the conference and have an NCAA bid sewed up prior to the B10 Tournament.  Things never go that well for Minnesota teams, so I'm expected some kind of a major injury either around game 4, or one of the first few Big Ten games after a really good pre-conference start.  It's bound to happen.  It's science.


OTHER PREVIEWS:
#5 ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI
#6 MICHIGAN
#7 MICHIGAN STATE
#8 IOWA HAWKEYES
#9 MARYLAND TERRAPINS
#10 INDIANA HOOSIERS
#11 PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS
#12 NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS
#13 PURDUE BOILERMAKERS
#14 RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS

Big Ten Basketball Preview: #5 Illinois Fighting Illini

If you collect athletes, as John Groce has been doing since he got the Illinois job, at some point simply through their sheer numbers they'll put it altogether and have a pretty good season.  Groce now has a whole bunch of top flight athletes, a lead dog in Rayvonte Rice who can be the big man on campus, and caught a big break with Tracy Abrams going down for the year with a knee injury because he is terrible.  Rice is a better point guard, as are two transfer combo guards coming in from Oregon State and Seton Hall.  Abrams has been the point guard for four years simply because Groce has continued on with Bruce Weber's tradition of refusing to ever sign a good, true point guard.  With Abrams out the Illinois should end up with a more free flowing, faster offense that fits their athletic roster to a T (tee?).

Here's who is on the Illini's roster and their rank by 247sports when they were incoming freshmen:  senior center Nganna Egwu #81, sophomores Kendrick Nunn #56, Malcolm Hill #103, Austin Colbert #98, Maverick Morgan #180, and Jaylon Tate #130, and freshmen Leron Black #43.  Add in guys who transferred in with Rayvonte Rice, who led Illinois in scoring last season at 15.9 per game and also led in rebounding despite being just 6-4, Aaron Cosby (Seton Hall guy, averaged 13 points and 3 assists), and Ahmad Starks (Oregon State, averaged 10 and 2.3).  I mean really, that's a shitload of talent.  If Weber was here I'd say big whoop he's going to screw it all up anyway, but with Groce they should be ok and get to the NCAA Tournament, assuming they end up figuring out the PG situation.

And they should, because it should be pretty simple.  Rice, Cosby, and Starks can all handle the ball, as can Tate.  Rice is better off the ball, I think, and the transfers give him a chance to do just that the majority of the time.  The Wing spot is in good shape as well, as any of those guys can play the #2 and add in Hill and Nunn and you've got plenty of options on the perimeter.  Illinois does have a history of standing around and launching way too many horrible three-pointers and they could fall into that trap again - no returnee cracked 39% last season.  The good news is Starks and Cosby both hit 40% last season, so there's another need those two transfers help fill.  Pretty much perfect guys to transfer in, really.

Front court is pretty good shape as well, even if Egwu is the only returnee who averaged more than 7.1 minutes per game last season (7pts/6rebs/2blks in 30 mpg).  Maverick Morgan is a monster at 6-10, 250 lbs.  He didn't do much last year and he strikes me as a defense and rebounding type, but that's all this team will need from him.  Another highly rated recruit who hasn't gotten much run is Austin Colbert, and he'll get his shot this year, but the real jewel here (other than Egwu who I seem to be glossing over but who is really quite a good player) is freshman Leron Black, ESPN's #44 recruit in the country.  He's another incredible athlete Illinois can add to their surplus, but he's already got a polished offensive game with a decent mid-range jumper.  He's my pick for freshman of the year if that's an award they give.

John Groce is a good coach, and there was little doubt he'd get the Illini turned around especially with a built in recruiting base of Chicago.  He's been crushing the Chicago market and has built up two great classes in a row with a third on the way, and leveraged that with a lucrative transfer market where he's had a lot of success already.  Illinois, however, has always seemed to have a talented and athletic squad, but it seems it's always been an issue getting them to really meld together and have sustained success, at least since the Deron Williams/Dee Brown team.  Good chance Groce is the guy to do it, which means the Illini might be on the verge of becoming a Big Ten power.  Yay.


OTHER PREVIEWS
#6 MICHIGAN
#7 MICHIGAN STATE
#8 IOWA HAWKEYES
#9 MARYLAND TERRAPINS
#10 INDIANA HOOSIERS
#11 PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS
#12 NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS
#13 PURDUE BOILERMAKERS
#14 RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS