That was the Most Pathetic Thing I Have Ever Seen.

 At least we don't have to worry about sweating on Selection Sunday anymore.  I know I said I was anticipating a loss, but I couldn't have predicted this.  Absolutely pathetic in every possible way.  I don't know what was worse, the lay-up line they gave Michigan, the complete lack of anything resembling defensive pressure by the Gophers, or the stagnant offense.  Also, can anybody tell me if Tubby ever went back to the zone, or was the one dunk allowed when Sims slipped behind the zone so damaging that he stayed in the man-to-man the entire game despite the fact that there wasn't a single Gopher who could cover any single Wolverine the entire game?  I don't know, because at the 15 minute mark of the second half I put my DVR on x3 mode and never saw a reason to stop as the Michigan side of the score kept rising. 

Utter and complete humiliation, and everybody - with the possible exception of Damian Johnson - is to blame.  Obviously in my tenure as a Gopher fan I've seen bad defeats.  I've been let down, disappointed, and even embarrassed at times, but I believe this is the first time I've been ashamed.  Zero effort, poor preparation, no hustle or defense at all, and no adjustments.  If there were a way to dismiss the entire team and coaching staff and start over right now, I'd be all for it.

But if the Gophers don't seem to care about getting to the NCAA Tournament I don't see why I should, so let's just move on.  It's still March, and if you care about basketball there is still a lot to pay attention to (not to mention Spring Training is getting going).  Cincinnati lost a game last night that knocked them off the bubble with the Gophers (possible NIT match-up?), while Florida couldn't quite pull off the upset against Vanderbilt.  That loss doesn't kill them, but it would have been very helpful to get. 

And congrats to UTEP, who beat Marshall last night and clinched their first Conference USA Championship, which should be good enough to clinch an NCAA bid as well.  Clemson likely also punched their ticket by knocking off Georgia Tech, as did Marquette with their win over Louisville.  Meanwhile, Illinois joined the Gophers in their efforts to get the Big Ten just four bids.  Good work, gents!

Plenty of action going on today, including a couple of monster games involving four good teams:  Kansas State @ Kansas and Maryland @ Duke.  Of course, there are also a couple conference tournaments kicking off again today, and since you brought it up:

ATLANTIC SUN: The A-Sun is a lower tier conference which seems even lower because outside of Belmont none of the team's are really recognizable:  Jacksonville?  Lipscomb?  Kennesaw State?  And they are currently in a state of flux with new additions South Carolina Upstate and Florida Gulf Coast - seems like a really geographically specific conference.  
FAVORITE:  Belmont.  There is actually a four-way tie at the top of the standings with Belmont, Campbell, Lipscomb, and Jacksonville, but I give the nod to Belmont because they have the highest ranking by Ken Pomeroy's numbers (#131) and rank in the top 170 in both offensive and defensive efficiency - the only team in the conference to do so.
SLEEPER: Lipscomb.  They swept Belmont and split against the other contenders, and that's good enough for me.  Plus, they rank in the top 80 in offensive efficiency, the only A-Sun team to rank that high in anything.
W's PICK: Belmont.  They seem to always play tough and pushed Duke to the limit in the tournament last year, not to mention a near-upset in the regular season of Tennessee a couple of years ago.

PATRIOT LEAGUE:  The Patriot ranks even worse than the A-Sun, coming in 27th out of 33 in conference ratings at Kenpom.com, but is more fun because I read John Feinstein's book about it (The Last Amateurs) a few years ago, which highlighted that this is the kind of conference where a star player has to drop off the team because he needs more time to work on his Biochem Doctorate.  I don't condone that kind of quitting or having your priorities that out of whack, but it was a fun book.
FAVORITE:  Lehigh.  They won the regular season crown at 10-4, and Snacks has a Lehigh Hooded Sweatshirt for some reason so he could always where that when he goes to the bar to watch the play-in game.
SLEEPER:  Navy.  I always think team's that play a radically different style from the rest of the conference are dangerous, and Navy qualifies with a up-tempo game that ranked 14th fastest in the country when only one other team in the Patriot ranked in the top 100, even if they don't play any defense (DEf = 286th).  But Navy did sweep Lehigh and they have the conference's top scorer in Chris Harris.
W's PICK:  Bucknell.  These team's are all terrible, so it comes down to who gets hot and Bucknell has won five of their last six.  Plus, they are at least kind of a name school (Kansas = hi).


TONIGHT'S BUBBLE GAMES

Temple @ St. Louis - The Billikens need to keep winning.  They are probably all the way out barring a run all the way to the A-10 final, but knocking off a RPI Top 20 team would help.

Wake Forest @ Florida State - Both teams could use this game, but FSU needs it to get a bid while Wake needs it to stop their losing streak (they're almost certainly in already).

UCONN @ Notre Dame - Not quite an elimination game, since I think even the loser can still get into the tournament, but the winner takes a big step forward.

Charlotte @ Rhode Island - A true bubble elimination game right here.

NC State @ Virginia Tech - Va Tech is in "can't lose another game" mode.

Miss State @ Auburn - I think the Bulldogs are in pretty good shape, but a loss to Auburn would put that all in jeopardy.

Memphis @ UAB - Another elimination game - certainly for Memphis, probably for UAB.

Colorado State @ San Diego State.  SDSU is another team in "can't lose" mode.


I also want to mention that this post is the first time I've used the "NIT" post label in two years.  That's fairly depressing.  Although it brings me to a good question - which is more prestigious, the CBI or the CIT?

I am terrified to write this preview

Yes, I am terrified.  The Gopher win over Illinois this weekend did just enough to get them back into bubble talks, and with two "easy" games left - at Michigan and vs. Iowa - things should be looking in decent shape for them to stay in consideration. 

But my entire Minnesota rooting life has conditioned me to expect the worst and I am nearly certain they will lose one of these two games.  Will they win the "tougher" one and beat Michigan just to drop the "easy" game and the end of the schedule?  Or will they just drop this first one here and put everyone out of their misery?  Or is it possible, just possible, they'll ask win both games, as they should, and go into the Big Ten Tournament in good enough shape to justify consideration?

I don't know, I just don't, but this feels just like watching the Vikings/Saints all over again.  You don't know why or how, but you just know things aren't going to go in your favore.

1.  So how has Michigan done since their soul-crushing defeat of the Gophers?  They followed up that win by winning at Iowa, and since have lost three straight:  versus Penn State and Illinois and at Ohio State while failing to score more than fifty-five points in any game.  They have continued to be terrible at scoring the basketball, and have shot 36% or less in all three games during the losing streak while continuing to be horrible at shooting the three-pointer, hitting a combined 17-76 (22%) in the three games while shooting them with the frequency of a drunk wrestler at open gym, taking 76 of them compared to just 40 by their opponents.  In short, they're still bad.  

2.  Remind me again how the Gophers lost last time?   Michigan actually scored the ball, hitting 50% from the field and 7-14 from three, with less reliance on the three-point shot because they were able to get the ball inside, leading to DeShawn Sims doing whatever he wanted and scoring 27 points.  Not to mention that the Wolverines only turned it over eight times, and the future (and the now) of the Gophers, Devoe and Sampson, combined to score just eleven points on 3-12 shooting.  You can read my live blog of the game here, but I have to warn you that by the end it just degenerated into me insulting the Gophers using British slang.

3.  So are we still worried about Sims?  Well, he followed up that monster game against the Gophers with another good one against Iowa (27 and 10), but since then has fallen back to earth.  He's gone 10 and 8, 7 and 13, and 11 and 6 in the losing streak, and has hit on just 34% of his field goal attempts.  The problem isn't even that he's fallen back in love with the three-point shot, which he has a tendency to do, since he took just three attempts in those three games.  Since he started since slump, Ralphie has gone in the opposite direction, and even though he didn't put up impressive numbers against Illinois he is still showing more emotion and more aggressiveness.  I think Ralph dominates Sims, so I'm not worried.  I mean, I'm worried, but I'm not worried. 

4.  Any sneaky "key-to-the-game" type players for the Gophers this time around?  I'm going with Paul Carter and, to a lesser extent, Rodney Williams.  Michigan has a limited number of athletes, and when they're busy trying to check the Gophers' main guys, Carter and Williams should be able to have success getting inside.  Especially Carter, who has been very good lately when given the playing time.  In his last three games where he's played more than 10 minutes (Michigan, Northwestern, and Illinois) he's hit double-figures in scoring and grabbed at least 3 boards while hitting 13 of 18 shot attempts.  Rodney had his second-best game in the Big Ten season against Illinois, going for 8 points and 6 rebounds, and could be finally breaking out - no better time than the present. 

5.  So do they stay alive for a bid?  There really isn't any reason to believe Michigan is going to win this game.  They are a bad, bad team, and the only Big Ten wins they have grabbed in Ann Arbor this year were against Iowa, Indiana, and Ohio State without Evan Turner.  Of course, they also beat UCONN in Crisler.  Even more of course, the beat the Gophers in Minneapolis.  And the most of course of all, is that this is the kind of game I believe in my black heart, deep down inside, that the Gophers always have and always will lose.  I wish I didn't feel that way, but be honest - would you really be surprised? 

Michigan 68, Minnesota 64.

Swamp Donkey!

 I'm sitting here watching this stupid game, and I wasn't going to type anything up but I'm watching and my blood is boiling and I just can't take it.  Why can't they figure out Michigan's man-to-man?  Why are we still seeing the "line changes" at this point in the season?  Why won't Tubby shorten the rotation when it's clear Iverson can't guard Sims and Bostick, as much as it pains me, doesn't belong out on the floor?  Why does this team constantly refuse to get back on defense?  Why is Ralph so accurate with the lob pass from the high to the low post?  Anyway, we're at the 7 minute mark of the first half and the Gophers are down 19-15 and I'm ready to kill.  It also doesn't help that Snacks is in Vegas and I'm not.  I'd much rather start drinking at 9am and then gamble for 12 hours then go to work.  I hate that guy.

5:51 -  You really can't leave the Hoff open.  This guy is ridiculous.  He's like the white Larry Bird, only if Bird was more like Craig Hodges.

5:16 -  Possibly the best quote ever by Bob Knight "Westbrook gets a little anxious to dribble the ball."  Awesome.

5:16 - Please note:  Blake was a Ginger as a kid.

5:01 - Airball by Stu Douglass on a wide open shot.  And I mean wide-open.  This team really can't shoot.  If the Gophers lose here they should be beyond embarrassed.  Even worse than Northwestern losing to Iowa.  Seriously.

4:22 - Manny almost passes too much.  There was a turnover on a pass to Sims who couldn't handle it.  Although the more I see Harris, the more I'm not sure of him as a pro.  I can watch Werewolf Turner and see how he's going to be a good NBA player, but I don't see it as much in Harris.  He might be, but I bet it will take him a lot longer than Turner.  And Sims is a lock to dominate in Turkey.

2:47 - They are up to 13 Final Fantasys now?  Man, Dawger and I played the shit out of Final Fantasy 7 in college.  Between that, the Star Wars games, NCAA Football, and Hot Shots Golf it's amazing we ever got to class.  Well, maybe one of us didn't, but I still have a degree.  SCREW YOU FOR JUDGING.

1:26 - Picture it:  Breakaway.  1-on-1.  Paul Carter versus Manny Harris, Carter with the ball.  You're picturing disaster (well I was), and yet Carter takes it at him for the lay-in and the foul (and makes the foul shot).  I think it's clear, Carter > Harris.

0:00 -  Good foul Rodney. 

19:25 -  So Devoe can't shoot now?  Awesome trend.  By the way, I'm watching this on Tivo and am fairly drunk already, so that's why this is so retarded.  Like you. 

19:00 -  More missed layups.  Sweet Juniper berries this team can't score.  Just terrible. 

18:22 -  Westbrook goes right by some dumb white guy and two passes later it's a wide open three for the Hoff, which he of course makes.  I really wish they could do that every time.  Also, playing defense would be great.  Nice layup, Sims. 

17:50 -  Musberger just described a Sampson turnaround jumper as "uncomfortable."  As much as I'd like to argue, he was right.  Ralphie really not looking comfy tonight.  Must be the uncoordinated whitey on him.  Being from the south and all, I'm sure white dudes make him extra nervous.

16:46 - Johnson beaten off the dribble as badly as I've seen in his four years by Harris.  Luckily some good help defense creates a miss, but wow.

16:38 -  Every time one of these white dudes for Michigan scores it should probably count double.

16:25 -  Eight different Gophers have an assist tonight.  Wow.  Awesome.  I'm super excited about that stat.  Michigan leads 34-31.

15:09 - Joseph misses another three.  Am I crazy or is he just missing like, all the time these days?  I'm telling you, dude is a shooting guard and when he's forced to play point it messes with his mind and screws up his shot.  You know how there are some guys who can't DH because they need to play the field in order to hit?  And it's 100% in their head but it still seems to matter?  That's Joseph when he has to play point guard. 

14:51 -  Due to some switches, Harris ends up with the ball with Cobbs on him.  He ends up passing it away, and then gets it back, and passes it away again.  Dude, you need to recognize things.  I love Cobbsy and all, but no chance in hell can he stop Harris one-on-one.  I'm not exactly sure if I should blame Beilein, Harris, or just "the system" or what, but that was a huge opportunity.  Why am I worried about this team again?  Other than that they're up 3 right now?

13:21 - Westbrook scores on a nice follow off a Ralph miss, then pickes up a really stupid (and also really ticky-tack) foul 80 feet from the basket.  Since it's his third Tubby yanks him, which causes Westbrook to pretty demonstrately show that he doesn't agree with the decision.  I don't care if you love him or hate him, but Westbrook has got to be an absolute handful to try to coach.  Also a handful:  your sister's boobs.

12:40 - Hoff with another three.

11:50 -  Brutal turnover by Joseph, basically just throwing it right to a Michigan defender.  Michigan is now up six, 44-38.  We're running out of time here fellas.  Not really all that cute anymore.  You might want to go ahead and consider stopping with the suckness.  Please?  I'm mostly kidding about the NIT stuff.  Although the opportunity to see Dominique Jones live does put a little hop in my step, I'd still rather watch the Gophers lose by twenty in the first round of the NCAA tournament.  Come on, retards.  Michigan sucks.

11:20 -  Westbrook back in.  Probably had a good cry.  And we just got about the third or fourth offensive foul called against the Gophers, and they were all kind of brutal.  Sort of some anti-home cooking going on here.  I blame Obama.  Can't trust him, you know.  He's an arab.

11:00 - Hoff misses an open three.  Musberger seems shocked, but I figure that seems about right.  When things come crashing down, they always come crashing down in a big way.  Just ask Metallica.  Hoff just missed another one while I was typing.  Ugh.

9:38 -  Some big dumb guy hits a three for Michigan, and we're now at a 9-point Michigan lead.  This is really quite depressing.  I think I'm going to stop typing.

8:57 - Uh oh.  It's looking like Westbrook has switched into "F You" mode.  He passed that one off, but I could tell it caused him physical pain to do it.  Something good better happen, because it's still a nine point game.  And now they are in the bonus.  That can only help Michigan.

8:31 -  Douglass absolutely loses Westbrook for a wide open layup and the foul.  God this is pathetic.  I'm only posting in British slang the rest of the way.

7:49 -  Bloody Hell.

7:33 - Michigan is shooting 69% in the second half.  These bunch of billy-no-mates are getting rather cheeky with the bunch of blighters who make up the Gopher squad.

6:35 - Thus far these pillocks are at least making their free throws, which gives them a hard chance about it.  Michigan still up six, but they are a bunch of charva, so I haven't given up just yet. 

6:16 -  Harris with a monster three.  Might be the kick in the goonies that ends this one.  And then Rodney turns it over and stands there like a true piss-artist.  Just pathetic.  I'm so glad the second unit is in, especially since they just let Sims hit a wide fucking open layup to put Michigan up eleven.  ELEVEN.  It's fucking Michigan at fucking home.  You are playing for your god damned tournament life you fucking morons!  Honest to christ, somebody give me a reason to believe in Tubby.  I can't come up with one.  This whole year has been a god damned nightmare and he's the man at the helm.  I feel like I'm on the Titanic and Billy Zane has already crashed it into a iceberg and I'm stuck in the freezing water and Kate Winslet is too fat to let me sit on the floating door with her so now I have to die.  BOLLOCKS!

5:14 -  Another Michigan layup.  I'm done here.

2:12 -  I'm just popping back in to mention that Michigan just got another layup.  Seriously, these prats are the worst defensive team I've ever seen, and the fact that they have a good reputation defensively is nothing but piffle.

So I tell the swamp donkey to sock it before I give her a trunky in the tradesman's entrance and have her lick me yarbles!

Seriously.  Tell me why I shouldn't be anti-Tubby.  Tell me.  I see no reason whatsoever to be on his side at this point.  What is the difference between him and Monson?  Minimal, at this point.  Minimal.  We were promised so much more, and I bought it.  I bought it hook, line, and sinker and I've ignored a lot of things that bothered me because "we got Tubby."  F that.  You can have him back.

Hello Manny.

Gopher Nation laid it out pretty simply in his post a couple of weeks ago:  there are three remaining absolute, no doubt about it, nothing else is acceptable must win games.  You need at least one and more likely two wins out of the remaining games, but there are three that if you lose you might as well just pack it in.  This is one of them.  And it's the most dangerous.

Michigan is just 11-12 and has lost to Indiana, Utah, and Boston College and been swept by Northwestern, but you really just can't sleep on this team.  This is essentially the same team that went 21-14 last year and advanced to the second round of the NCAA Tournament.  They also have Manny Harris, who is still incredible and still opened the season with a triple-double.  It's still mind-boggling how bad they are, although keep in mind they did beat UCONN last month.

Obviously, I'm a bit worried here.  Let's just get on to the five questions that I know you are so desperate to read

1.  What's wrong with Michigan?  Well I sort of broke this down a little bit with a post last week, but in a nutshell they are extremely reliant on the three point shot, but can't make it.  They are twelfth in the country in the % of their field goal attempts that come behind the line, with 43.5% of their attempts being three-pointers, but they shoot a terrible 28.9% from there.  How bad is that?  It's 324th in the country and last in the Big Ten.

The best team in the country is Marquette at 42.4%, which means if the two teams played and only shot three-pointers and each got exactly 60 possessions and there were no turnovers or offensive rebounds, Marquette would win 76-52.  That's bad.  And since Beilein is apparently incapable of altering his offensive strategies to fit his players, they lose.  And lose.  And lose.

2.  But Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims were going to be the Big Ten's answer to the Shaq & Penny from NBA Jam.  What happened?  Actually those two have been excellent.  His scoring is up a bit while his rebounding and assists are down slightly, but his turnovers are down as well and he's really upped his steals.  He has also improved his overall shooting, and outside of his three-point accuracy going from below average to "god awful", he's been every bit as good as expected and ranks in the top 10 in points, rebounds, assists, and steals.

Sims has increased his production in pretty much every metric and kept his shooting percentages nearly identical to last year, and ranks in the top six in the conference in both scoring and rebounding.  He's not the problem either.

Stu Douglass is shooting less than 32% from the floor this year.  Laval Lucas-Perry is playing 25% more minutes this year compared to last year, but is scoring less and turning it over more.  Zack Novak, maybe the most likely candidate to jump into third banana status, has stagnated/regressed, and is shooting just 28% from three.  Freshman Darius Morris has proven to be almost zero offensive threat, with more turnovers so far this year than made field goals.

Harris and Sims are going to be major handfuls, but if one of these clowns gets off and has a big game, it could be a long, long night. 

3.  So are the Wolverines the most disappointing team this year?  If it wasn't for the baby blues down in Chapel Hill, I'd say yes for sure, but it's hard to beat a Carolina team that was expected to be a sweet 16 type team but is struggling to even make the NIT for disappointment.  Using my handy-dandy Athlon preview magazine as a guide, we could put Oklahoma up in that range as well, since they were also picked as a sweet 16 team but are going to be lucky to make it to the NIT.  Toss in UCLA and (for me at least) Cincinnati and you have a hell of a starting five of disappointment.

4.  Gopher pick to click?  Which Gopher(s) can we expect to come up big?  Other than none of them, you mean?  Well, if I have to pick somebody I'm going with Hoffarber.  Although the Wolverines season-long numbers don't show them particularly deficient at defending the three, they've been shredded lately, allowing 52% to Wisconsin and 50% to Northwestern last week.  They allowed Jason Bohannon of all people to go off for 18, and he's a poor man's Hoffarber, so I'd expect the real deal (not J.D. Durbin) to have an even bigger night.  The Wolverines are not a deep team, and it takes a lot of effort and energy to keep defending the perimeter when you're playing 35+ minutes.  

5.  So what do we think?  Normally I'm pretty pessimistic, and normally I'd probably pick a Michigan win here.  In fact, I was pretty sure I was going to be predicting a Wolverine win.  Yet instead, I believe I will listen to the words written oh so elegantly on the ample rumps of the lovely young lasses below:  F Michigan.

Minnesota 67, Michigan 66.

In any case, I predict the Gophers control the game most of the way and collapse in the last five minutes.  In this case, I think they manage to pull it out.