Game Preview: Gophers vs. Illinois

Huge sigh of relief.  I've been terrified of that Northwestern game ever since it morphed into a must win thanks to that three game losing streak.  I know I usually like to do the 10 things post after the game and get all nerdy and stuff, but there was a little bit of a Sunday Fun Day going on and with the game not being until five I didn't really super pay attention.  I know Jershon Cobb hit everything, Drew Crawford hit nothing, the Gophers and their turnovers are going to be the death of me, and DeAndre Mathieu is maybe the greatest Gopher of all time.

Up next is Illinois, another must win game.  The good news is that Illinois is terrible.  They've gone 3-10 in the Big Ten, and they started out 2-0 which, if my math is right, means they're 1-10 in the last eleven games.  They did beat UNLV and Missouri in non-conference play and were even ranked in the Top 25 at one point, but a once promising season has gone completely off the rails and I really see no need for the Gophers to do anything to allow any life to seep back into the Illini.  Kill them and kill them now.

Illinois's biggest problem is on offense, where they rank 11th in the Big Ten and 201st in the country in offensive efficiency.  Their problem, and this seems like an Illinois tradition at this point, is that they do nothing but shoot jumpers.  They take only 28% of their field goal attempts at the rim, a full 10% lower than the national average.  And they don't even replace these attempts with valuable 3-point attempts, but with 2-point jumpers (10% more than the national average here too).  This is a poor strategy no matter what, but it's even worse when you can't shoot.  They rank dead last in the conference in 3-point shooting (28%) and 2-point shooting (41%) and being that bad at both is pretty impressive.  Since they never drive to the paint they also rarely get to the line (335th in the country) so sometimes it gets awfully difficult for the Illini to find points.

If they're going to score, it's most likely going to come from 6-4 senior guard Rayvonte Rice, their leading scorer (16.6 per game) and one of a few players who might occasionally drive to the rim.  He's probably their best three point shooter (33% on 5 attempts per game) but he's also very tough inside (5.9 rpg) and can use his strength and driving to get to the line (four games with 10+ FTAs this season, including 2 of the last 4), and is a big reason the Illini can play four guards as often as they do.  He can score in bunches and has eclipsed twenty points four times in Big Ten play including 3 of the last 6 games.  Most of his damage comes against teams who struggle to contain guard penetration, so it's imperative the Gophers keep him contained out to the perimeter. 

Running the offense will be "point guard" Tracy Abrams who is continuing the Illini tradition of never having a good point guard (the curse of Chester Frazier) averaging just 3 assists per game (his assist percentage is ok, in fairness) and he's just a terrible shooter at 35% on twos and 27% on threes.  He's actually their second leading scorer at 11.2 per game, but did most of his damage outside conference play and has hit double figures in just 7 Big Ten games, and one of the last four.

The other two guards will likely be a couple of highly regarded freshmen in 6-2 shooting guard Kendrick Nunn and 6-6 wing Malcolm Hill, both of whom were ranking in the 60s as incoming freshmen by ESPN.  Neither has put up monster stats this year, but Nunn is started to get more involved having played 30+ minutes in each of the last three games and scoring 19 against Penn State.  Nunn had a rep as a shooter coming in, and although he's only hitting 33% this year you just never know with these highly ranked freshmen - they could nothing all year and then just explode, but hopefully he got that out of his system against Penn State.  Hill starts, but generally gives up most of his minutes to senior sixth man Joseph Bertrand.

The super athletic Bertrand kind of scares me because if the Gophers do that thing where they let guards drive into the paint over and over again he could have a monster game.  He's usually much better in a free flowing game, so hopefully the Gophers can play that lock down defense they break out from time to time.  I expect them to play zone given the Illini's difficulty throwing the ball into the basket, so expect Bertrand to try to exploit the gaps.  If the Gophers lose, Bertrand will have a big part in it.

In the front court Illinois goes with 6-11 league leader in Ns in his name Nnanna Egwu as their lone foward quite often.  Egwu is the super athletic jump around guy who blocks a lot of shots (2.2 per game) and can grab some rebounds (5.9 per game) but is pretty limited on offense (6.7 ppg on 41% shooting which is horrendous for someone 6-11).  Their two back up bigs are 6-7 senior Jon Ekey and 6-10 freshman Maverick Morgan.  Ekey is your float around the perimeter three point shooter guy (35% on 5 attempts per game), but for a three point specialist he's in the middle of a horrendous slump (5-21 last 6 games).  If Bertrand and Rice can find the gaps in the zone he's the one they'll be looking for spotting up behind the arc.  Morgan averages only about 8 minutes per game, but he'll likely see the floor a bit considering the Gophers will generally always have either Mo Walker or Elliot Eliason in the game, Egwu can't play all 40 minutes, and there is no way in hell Ekey can guard either of them.

Despite their record and everything I've written so far Illinois really isn't a pushover.  They're a terrible shooting team, yes, and they didn't break 40 points in their last game and have only scored over 70 points once in their last 11, but they also play good defense.  Not great, but good.  I expect the Gophers to keep Illinois to around 60 points, despite all the holes in the Gopher defense I don't think Illini can exploit them to score much more than that.  So the question is, can the Gophers score more than that?  I think yes.

Minnesota 74, Illinois 60.

Game Preview: Minnesota vs. Illinois

This afternoon for lunch we went to this really cool authentic Mexican deli-type place where you could order our tacos or burritos or whatever you wanted with any one of a whole bunch of different meat choices, and I noticed that among those choices were beef tripe, beef tongue, pork stomach, and beef head.  Now, I really like trying new foods - not that long ago I had wild boar with escargot as an appetizer - and usually if there's a new type of meat (to me) on the menu I'll give it a shot.  I've never had anything like those, and I figured I could handle tongue because I know a lot of people consider tongue to be quite tasty, so that's what I was going to have.  Then I got to the counter and I ordered the adobo carnitas.  I'm such a sissy.

I opened with that because I have very little reaction to the loss at Michigan State because as I said in my preview post I didn't really care because I expected them to lose and the game essentially meant nothing as far as their NCAA Tournament hopes since I knew there was no chance they could pull an upset.  And also because I missed 90% of the game running around getting my car stuff figured out and then a torturous experience picking up dinner for the family at Zantigo that took nearly 40 minutes somehow.  But now the real season begins.  Now it's do or die time, starting with Saturday against Illinois.

Illinois is on a two-game losing skid after dropping a home game to Wisconsin and a roadie at Penn State, but are still in pretty good shape at 15-5 and 4-3 in conference thanks to big wins over Ohio State and Gonzaga and only the Penn State loss sitting in the "bad loss" column, even if it is understandable to lose a road conference game.  They certainly are ahead of the Gophers in the conference pecking order, but they may need this game as badly as Minnesota does because their next game is against Michigan State, and if they don't beat the Gophers they may be looking at a 4-game losing streak and sub-500 league record.

And make no mistake, Illinois can absolutely win this game.  If the Gophers' home losses to Iowa and Purdue don't tell you they can lose at any time, Illinois's wins at Maryland and Northwestern and neutral site victory of Richmond let you know the Illini don't shrivel up and die on the road.  Both teams are extremely evenly matched which you'd realize if you subscribed to kenpom.com and looked them up, so this one is going to come down to execution and mistakes, but if you wanted to take one thing to look at and concentrate on to decide how this game was going to go down, I'd point you towards the Illini's three-point shooting.  Actually the #1 deciding factor will probably be if Tubby decides to give a crap about this game or not, but the 3-point shooting thing is definitely #2.

The Gophers' issues with defending the three under Tubby Smith are as well known as they are perplexing, but as a refresher they allow opponents to shoot 35.8% from three, which ranks 218th in the nation - not good.  Normally I would say that's ok against Illinois because they're not a particularly good shooting team, hitting just 32.9% on the year (ranks #222) and no real great shooters, but teams continually get more of their points from three against the Gophers than they normally would, simply because they're open more often.

Plus, Illinois does have a tendency to fall in love with the shot and they have just enough mediocre, high-volume shooters that they have a high likelihood of somebody getting hot, and sometimes thats all you need.  Like in the Illini's win over Ohio State when Brandon Paul completely lost his mind and hit 8-10 from three (he's a 35% shooter this year and that includes that game) en route to 43 points and basically won that game for them.  D.J. Richardson was 4-7 in their win over Gonzaga.  Sam Maniscalco was 5-8 in their win over Maryland.  And most of their losses have come when they shoot too many threes and nobody makes them: 7-25 vs. UNLV, 4-16 vs. Missouri, 5-21 vs. Purdue, 7-22 vs. Penn State, and 3-12 vs. Wisconsin.

So that's your real key here.  Hope they shoot a lot of threes (given the Gophers' defense this is likely), miss a lot (less likely), and hope nobody gets hot (even less likely).  I have, of course, not mentioned the Illini's best player, center Meyers Leonard, but that's because he's gonna do what he does.  He's gonna go for 12-20 points and 6-10 rebounds and that's that.  I also expect that, because he and Ralph are similar, finesse type players who both lack the ability to just take the other out of the game, those two will cancel each other out like last time.

Other than the 3-point thing the other big thing the Gophers need to do is force turnovers.  Illinois still struggles with point guard (as they have since Chester Frazier graduated) and rely on an undersized shooting guard (Maniscalo) , a small forward (Paul), and a freshman (Tracy Abrams) to handle most of their ball-handling.  Abrams playing time has really increased since conference play started and I'd assume he'll get most of the ball work (he he) on Saturday, but he can be a turnover machine at times and struggled against the Gophers in Champaign (5 TOs). 

Pressure on the ball-handlers and shutting down the 3-pointer are your keys to the game.  If they can continue with the attacking, aggressive, get-in-the-lane offense they've showcased the last 3 games they'll be able to score against Illinois, but if they let the Illini get off from 3 and play that shitty stand around crapfense they did against Iowa and Purdue Illinois will win this game.  As Fred Durst once said, you gotta have faith.

Minnesota 62, Illinois 56.

Tuesday Talkings - 4/28/2011

Do you guys have any idea how  hard it is to come up with things to write for a Twins/Gopher basketball blog when there's nothing going on with Gopher basketball and the Twins suck worse than your life does?   Seriously, before long most of the blog entries here are going to be like, "Hey, have I told you about my bunions? Oh, you're gonna love this story! So, I line up my cold cuts on the couch next to me, but as I'm stacking them up, they keep falling into my foot bath!"


You just watch, it's going to happen.  Although, once again due to the  Twins' ineptitude, I don't think anybody is reading anyway.  Yes, it must be due to the Twins' ineptitude.


Anyway, I'm just going to sit here and type things as I think of them.  You monkeys will read anything.


-  Speaking of reading anything, have you been checking out Grantland.com, Bill Simmons new sports and pop culture site? I like it overall so far, mainly because it gives you 4-5 new articles every day to choose from.  It's certainly been a mixed bag, with great stuff like Klosterman's great piece about a JuCo basketball game in North Dakota from 1988 (I know it sounds weird, just read it) mixed in with some complete garbage like this (hatchet job on stats using basketball as an example), this (brutally bad and rambling article that states it's point and then never comes close to touching on it again), and this (weird attack on Blake Lively that doesn't belong on this site - or anywhere, really) as well as some weird homer shit from Simmons about the Bruins.  Overall though, there are 3 or so pretty entertaining pieces per day and more good than bad, so I'd recommend making it part of your daily internet routine.  Or not, whatever.  Like I care.


-  Twins are winning 3-1 right now in the fourth.  Kind of a weird feeling.


-  Maybe we should talk some Big 10 hoops, eh?  Since that's kind of the whole reason I started this blog - well, that and boredom....maybe a little egotism.  Going to be kind of an odd year since there's so much talent leaving.   Of the three all Big Ten teams only Jared Sullinger, Jordan Taylor, Trevor Mbakwe, William Buford, Draymond Green, and John Shurna are back.   Only 3 of the 6 honorable mentions are back as well (wait, Lewis Jackson was honorable mention all Big Ten?  How is this possible?  Is there some sort of degree of difficulty modifier added due to being 5-foot-6?)

One of the players I'm most intrigued with this year is Illinois freshman point guard Tracy Abrams, who ranks as the #13 point guard  and #58 overall recruit according to Rivals.  As you probably are aware of, for some reason when Chester Frazier graduated Bruce Weber decided Demetri McNuggets was going to be there point guard and never bothered to get another one.  This led to McCamey putting up good stats (although he couldn't put up a single rep on the bench press at the NBA Combine) and constantly unraveling at the end of games because, as anybody could tell, he wasn't a god damn point guard.  Now, still thanks to Weber's complete inattentiveness to the position (Tubby -> Hi) they are giving the job to Abrams because he's the only PG on the roster.  Illinois has plenty of talent back so basically their entire season hinges on if Abrams can handle the PG position.  Always good to have your season's success hanging on whether an 18-year old kid can play the most important position on the court in his first year jumping from High School to major College ball.


The other player who I think will have the biggest impact on a team's success or failure this year is Brandon Wood of Michigan State.  Wood was a lightly recruited combo guard out of high school who signed with Southern Illinois and then transferred to Valpo.  He blossomed with the Crusaders, averaging 17 points, 4.5 rebs, and 3 assists in his last two years and lighting up North Carolina for 30, Michigan State for 24, and Purdue for over 20 twice in those two years.  He's eligible immediately since he's already graduated, and with the Spartans losing Kalin Lucas (expected) and Korie Lucious (unexpected) they're thin in the back court (unlike Draymond Green).  I fully expect Wood to end up being their primary ball-handler.  If he's a disaster Michigan State's season will likely be as well, unless Green can run full-time point forward duties.


Finally, I am curious to see how Jordan Taylor does with nothing around him.   He obviously had a monster season last year but he had Jon Leuer to help take a lot of the defensive attention off of him, and even Keaton Nankivil to help.  Now they're both gone and I know Bo Ryan and the gay Badgers always find ways to win and somebody always steps up but I really don't see anyone on this roster capable of becoming a viable second scorer.  It's all going to be up to Taylor, and he's either going to average 24 pts/8 rebs/7 assists per game or he's going to end up shooting in the low 30s percentage-wise.  Maybe both.  


-  For the record I am VERY unhappy with Emma Stone's new blonde hair.  Very unhappy.  I'm super glad I broke up with her now.  She's 10 times hotter with red hair, and that might be a low number.


-  Russell freaking Martin leads the AL in voting at catcher?  Jesus it's almost all Yankees.  Something needs to be done about this process.  Maybe it should be like having a baby should be and you have to pass some kind of competency exam first.   First, Martin doesn't even have enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title.  Second, he's hitting just .230, 8th among AL catchers with at least 100 PAs.  He ranks 6th in HRs and RBI amongst AL catchers and 5th in OPS.  I'm guessing this is simply a case of being a Yankee and having a name people recognize as having been really really good in the NL a few years ago.  Poor Alex Avila.  He's having a monster season so far (note:  I had no idea) and he'll have to catch a break to make the All-Star game.   Derek Jeter (who is actually having a worse season at the plate than Alexi Casilla) garnering more votes than Asdrubel Cabrera is actually a bigger travesty, but writing about Jeter being overrated is like telling jokes about airplane food at this point.


-  You can go ahead and put me squarely in the camp of "Josh Selby won't get it figured out."  Guy's got AND 1 All-Star written all over him.  Skip to My Lou 2 - The Reversoning.


-  Cliff Lee shut out the Red Sox tonight and allowed just two hits, which wouldn't really be all that surprising since it is Cliff Lee after all, but I was doing some digging into this game for gambling purposes (I ended up not wagering on the game) and it's actually amazing considering how the current Sox have done in their careers against Lee.  Marco Scutaro has hit .302 against him, Pedroia has hit .364, Darnell McDonald .400, and Adrian Gonzalez an incredible .700.  Kevin Youkilis hasn't hit him that well, but he's drawn 4 walks to 2 strikeouts and has a .400 OBP against Lee.  He's dominated Ellsbury and Varitek, but really based on history the Sox should have had some success against Lee.  Which once again proves that nothing makes any sense ever. 


-  You know, Daenarys Targaryen is a dead-ringer for Claire from Lost.  Check it:

 

I speak truth.


Like always.