Gophers Sweet-16 Bound?

As I'm sure you are aware, the Gophers have somehow made the NCAA tournament as an 11 seed, and now take on Xavier Friday morning.  As you may also be aware, I will be traveling with Snacks and Snake to visit Bogart and watch the first two rounds this weekend.  I'm not really sure why I bring that up, except that I'm pretty fired up about both developments.  There's nothing quite like drinking and watching March Madness all day and tonight and then drinking and playing Madden on a 12-foot TV.  And I'm almost as excited for the Gophers.  So let's hop to it, Gomer.

1.  So just how good is Xavier?  Good, but not great or unbeatable.  The record is an impressive 24-8, and going 14-2 in a very good A-10 this year is nothing to be ignored, but that shouldn't be looked at as a sign of invincibility in any way.  Although the Musketeers played a very good out-of-conference schedule, they missed out on almost every opportunity to grab a big win.  They lost to Marquette, Baylor, Kansas State, Butler, and Wake Forest, with their best wins coming over Florida and Cincinnati.  Their record against the other NCAA teams from the A-10 was just 1-2 and they lost by 25 against Dayton.  They won't beat themselves (there isn't a bad loss in the bunch) so he Gophers won' be able to stumble into a victory, but if they play as well as they can this game is eminently winnable. 

2.  That twin towers thing the Gophers have going on, will that work again?  Not only could it work, but it might have to.  Xavier has some serious size on the inside; 6-9, 265lb. Jason Love, 7-0, 265lb. Kenny Frease, and 6-8, 235lb. Jamel McLean all play at least 17 minutes a game, shoot better than 50%, and Love and McLean average around a triple-double per game each.  If you go ahead and add in the fact that Xavier is one of the best team's in the country at defending the three-pointer (opponents shoot just 29% from three against them), and it's clear that Ralph, Colton, or both are going to have to have a big game if the Gophers are going to advance.

3.  Who are the key players for the Musketeers?  Point guard Terrell Holloway and swingman Jordan Crawford.  Holloway is quick as all hell and is one of those kind of guards who seem like they are just a hair short of completely out of control, but this year he's managed to nearly double his points (to 11.8 per game) and assists (to 3.9) while leaving his turnovers at a comfortable 1.9, and has become a truly dangerous lead guard, and a great closer at the end of games with his 85% free throw shooting.  Crawford, formerly of the Hoosiers, is the the team's leading scorer at 19.7 per, and has turned himself into a hell of an all-around player.  He's hit double-figures in all but one game this season, and that was the fourth game of the year.  He's tough to handle at 6-4 because he can get to the rim and can hit the three - he's a very, very good player (and a member of my fantasy team this year).  If anybody in this game from either side could single-handedly carry their team to victory, it's Crawford.

4.  Anything else we need to know?  Pace.  Speed, and Pace.  Xavier plays a quick, uptempo game and ranked 38th in tempo, while the Gophers play far slower, ranking 205th.  I think the Gopher number is deflated a bit by playing in such a slow conference overall, but they're never going to be confused for Tarkanian's UNLV teams.  They can really push because of their athletes, and especially because of Holloway and his back-up, Mark Lyons.  They are both incredibly quick, incredibly fast with or without the ball, and generally make good decisions (particularly Holloway).  In fact, PM Thor from the Xavier message board I became a member of this offseason thanks to my incredibly accurate A-10 preview wants us to know, 

"Xs guards are going to run you ragged. Get ready to run from end to end."

We've all seen games where the Gophers seemingly refuse to get back, and refuse to play anything resembling transition defense.  If that happens against the Musketeers, this could get very ugly, very quickly. 

5.  So who wins? Make no mistake, this Xavier team is very, very good.  Don't relax because they're A-10, don't relax because, outside of Jordan Crawford, you may not recognize any names, don't relax because they are just a six seed and don't relax because the Gophers played so well against Michigan State and Purdue - this is a good team that is probably underseeded by a spot or two.  That being said, they aren't invincible either, and the Gophers have looked so, so good in the past month save for a couple games, and this game will probably come down to the very end.  I also think both teams are better than Pitt, and whoever wins here ends up advancing to the Sweet 16, minimum.  My head gives a slight edge to X, but my heart says otherwise:

Minnesota 66, Xavier 65.

There are three important things to remember here:

1.  This should be a great game.
2.  In general, the Musketeer fanbase seems like a bunch of pretty good guys, at least in my limited experience.
3.  Whoever wins, at least those assholes from Dayton are stuck in the NIT.

Week in Review - 12/14/09

 I really wish they hadn't got rid of Boof.  Why Keppel?  Why?


WHO WAS AWESOME

1.  Herb Pope.  You probably don't know who this is, but you should.  Pope was an absolute stud in high school, ranked as the #17 prospect in 2007 and Rivals had him as #23, but due to some slight "concerns" he ended up at New Mexico State.  Of course, those concerns were that he punched out his coach, got arrested for DUI, and was shot five times at a party.  After a good season at NMSU, coach Reggie Theus left to coach in the NBA, and Pope left as well, transferring to Seton Hall to be closer to his new daughter.  And what an addition to the Pirates he has been, averaging 15 and 13 without even a hint of trouble.  This week was particularly saucy, with Pope putting up 22 points and 15 rebounds in the Hall's win over UMass, and following it up with a 15 and 20 in their 134-107 whooping of VMI, who continues to never, ever play defense.  The Pirates are now 8-0, but don't have a signature win and don't really play anyone the rest of the way until we hit the Big East schedule.  They'll have to have a good run if they want to be playing in March.

2.  Craig Brackins.  Well it was pretty much inevitable that he would show up here at some point, so why not now after throwing up a 28 and 8 against Iowa with 3 assists, 4 blocks, and a steal with no turnovers and only one personal foul.  Also he shot 9-13 from the field.  Usually when a possible lottery pick goes back to school for another year he ends up hurting his draft stock (Hi Sam Bradford), but in this case Brackins has probably boosted it by proving he can play the small forward.  His scoring and rebounding are down a bit this year (from 20.2 and 9.5 to 18.2 and 7.6), but his turnovers are way down (from 2.3 to 1.0), his assists are way up (from 1.3 to 2.4) and - consider yourself terrified - he's added a three point shot.  Yep, that's right.  He's shooting 63% from three this year after a 4-5 performance in that Iowa game.  Mark my words, this guy is just biding his time in the pre-conference games and is just waiting to unleash hell all over people's heads.  NBADraft.net currently has him projected as the 18th overall pick next year.  That my friends is both a crime and a steal of Danny Granger proportions.  Remember when the Wolves took Rashad McCants over Danny Granger?  I was literally screaming at the TV.  Guess what's awesome?  I went to McCants's wikipedia page, and he's listed as "an american basketball player who is currently a free-agent" meaning he hasn't hooked on here or Europe or South America or New Zealand or anywhere.  Awesome.

3.  New Mexico.  It's time to start paying attention to the Lobos, who beat Texas A&M in Houston on Saturday to follow-up their win against San Diego earlier this season, pushing their record to 10-0.  The A&M win wasn't their only big win this season either.  They also beat Cal and won at the Pit at New Mexico State - never an easy rivalry game.  I haven't seen the Lobos play, but they have a couple of swingman-types who can light it up - Roman Martinez (averaging 17-6-2) and Darington Hobson (17-8-4) and senior point guard and former Iowa Stater Dairese Gary is having a nice season as well and the whole team lights it up from three (41% as a team).  Alford looks to have turned this program around and they have a nice path to an NCAA Tournament bid this year, which would be just their second since 1999.  Also this gives me a chance to use the "Nathen Garth" tag again, since Tubby's first ever signee who was then not signed ended up at New Mex and is averaging 6 points and 2 assists in 15 minutes per game for the Lobos.  Thrilling.

4.  Cincinnati/Xavier.  What a game.  This one had a little bit of everything, and if you missed the Musketeers' 83-79 double-OT victory over the Bearcats you missed a great one.  The benches cleared twice after flagrants, we had a double technical, Lance Stephenson of Cincy and Terrell Holloway of Xavier were both brilliant and both hit career-highs in points in their respective coming out parties.  Deonta Vaughn rebounded from a horrible shooting first half to hit a lot of clutch shots down the stretch, Jason Love battled his way to 19 rebounds against a very strong Cincy front-line, Ibrahima Thomas made his Bearcat debut and almost got tossed for trash-talking, and Cincy pissed away the game thanks to 10-22 free-throw shooting and a missed layup by Vaughn.  Great game, and even better for being within such an incredible rivalry.  Trust me boys, I told you this before and I'm telling you again, Cincinnati is absolutely a national title contender - both their losses are in overtime games and were very winnable.  A little more seasoning and this team is going to be a monster.  I got them at 200-1 two win the whole thing, and last I saw they were 75-1.  Jump on that number now, it's going to be 20-1 or worse by the time the tournament rolls around.  

5.  Chris Gaston.  You probably don't know anything about Fordham basketball and let's ok because hardly anybody does, but I do and pay attention because I'm about to drop some knowledge.  The Rams were just 3-25 last season, and 1-15 in conference play, and were every bit as terrible as that sounds.  They did, however, have one bright spot in freshman guard Jio Fontan, who averaged 15 points and 5 assists per game last season and made the conference's All-Freshman team.  After the season, however, Fontan decided that Fordham wasn't the place for him and he asked for his release - but, in a move I've never of before, Fordham declined to give it, meaning if Fontan transferred he would be ineligible to recieve a scholarship - so he was stuck.  So he came back and played in the team's first five games this season, averaging 15 points and 4 assists, but after the 1-4 start the coach was fired and Fontan once again put in his transfer papers - only this time the request was granted and he's on his way out.  I tell you this only to let you know just how much of a mess it is at Fordham right now, and so I can point out the ray of hope for the Rams - Chris Gaston.

He's a freshman who was actually a former high-school teammate of Fontan, and he started out this season well, averaging 15 points and 11 rebounds per game.  When Fontan left, instead of pouting about how the guy who basically convinced him to come to Fordham had quit on him, he put the team on his shoulders and has really stepped up his game, averaging 26 points and 13 rebounds per game, including a 32-15 on Saturday in a loss to St. Johns and 25-11 (and 5 assists) in a win over Stony Brook earlier this week.  That's right, a win.  I'm not really sure who the bad guy is here - Fontan for quitting twice or Fordham for not letting him go the first time, but I know Gaston is the good guy.  They won't be in any kind of postseason tournaments, not even the CBI, but maybe Fordham will somehow manage to be relevant in a year or two.


WHO SUCKED

1.  Pittsburgh Steelers.  Yikes.  The Steelers won the Super Bowl last year right?  Hold on, I have to look this up.  Yes, they did (also this year's Super Bowl is at Land Shark Stadium which is just awesome).  Not awesome would be the Steelers' performance this season and, even more specifically and relevant to the point of this entire post, on Thursday when they lost to the lowly Browns 13-6.  Not only did they lose embarrassingly, but they managed just six points against that crappy team despite not turning the ball over.  They just couldn't do anything.  A total of 216 yards for the game (that's total, passing + rushing).  This puts Pittsburgh on a five-game losing streak, and not just your typical five game losing streak - within it are losses to Kansas City and Oakland along with the Browns.  So basically the Steelers rolled into the easiest part of their schedule at 6-2, and are coming out 6-7 with little to no playoff hopes despite having basically the same team they had last year when they won the whole thing.  It's gotta suck to be a Steeler fan right now.  Ouch.

2.  Louisville.  Good god, what is going on over there?  Three weeks ago they lost to UNLV, and you were all like, "whoa that's weird" but no big whoop because they always seem to stumble and lose to an inferior team (like the Gophers last year).  Then two weeks ago they lost to Charlotte, and you were all like, "Wow, maybe Charlotte is way better than we thought and Louisville is worse."  Now, on Saturday they lost to Western Carolina and you are all like "these guys suck and stuff."  Let me repeat:  they lost to Western Carolina.  At Home.  By 8.  In a game that wasn't even that close.  Just as scary as the loss is the way they lost - a team and program known for playing stifling defense and having strong guard play let WCU shoot 51% and turned the ball over 20 times - 7 of them by Edgar Sosa, the biggest disappointment in terms of living up to his potential since Felipe Lopez.  This rebuilding at Louisville is looking like it's going to take longer than I thought.       

3.  Arizona.  I feel like I'm constantly highlighting these guys as being bad, but they constantly deserve it so I guess that's just how it goes.  They managed to go 1-2 this week, squeaking a win out against Louisiana Tech in between two embarrassing losses to Oklahoma and San Diego State, both games the Wildcats got blown out in.  Do you realize Arizona is now 4-5.  Arizona has a losing record this early in the season.  Crazy.  They have at least played a pretty good schedule, but there's no real point to scheduling tough if you're just going to lose every game.  They still have games left against BYU and NC State before they hit the Pac-10 season, and if they want a chance at making the dance for something like the 20th year in a row, they need to win both.  They also need their perimeter guys (Wise, Fogg, & Horne) to stop shooting like crap (42%, 39%, 43%).  Good news though - they have the entire week off so they can't end up on this list again unless the whole team quits or something.  Don't rule that out. 

4.  Boston College.  It's not common that a team from a BCS Conference goes 0-2 in a week when they aren't in some kind of tournament, but the Eagles managed to pull it off this week.  And it's not like they had a couple of road games tough opponents, they lost to Harvard and Rhode Island, both at home.  Oof.  I guess it shouldn't be that surprising considering this team lost to St. Joe's, but still - wow.  And they weren't even close games, either.  Harvard won by 7 after leading pretty much the entire game, and Rhode Island totally blew the doors off B.C. and ended up winning by eleven.  Suddenly Michigan's win over them isn't looking nearly as impressive.  Special thumbs up to Joe Trapani for shooting 1-7 from three in the game against Rhody.   

5.  UNLV.  I knew these guys were frauds, and that's why a line of Kansas State +2 was such an easy bet on Saturday.  Obviously it paid off or I wouldn't be cocking off here like I was Jimmy the Greek and you were some black dude, but the whole point is that UNLV is terrible.  That's probably too strong.  Let's say overrated.  Seriously, how the hell was UNLV ranked #17?  Because they were 7-0?  A couple of wins look like "name" wins, but these "name" schools aare awful this year - they beat Louisville and Arizona - who both sound impressive but are awful this season.  Their best win was actually over Nevada, who is ranked 74th by Pomeroy, and they don't have another top 100 win in the bunch.  Kansas State this weekend (#16) was by far their best opponent, and the Wildcats blew them rigth out of the water 95-80 in Vegas.  If, and it's a big if, UNLV does make the tournament thanks to a watered down Mountain West, I'll guarantee their first round exit.      


You know what else sucks?  Fucking welshers.  Let me tell you what I'm talking about.  Let's say I'm in a keeper league for fantasy football, and I make a trade offer to a guy in my league.  He counters with a slightly different offer.  I accept.  He backs out and says he's not trading.  What the hell is that crap?  He should have to spend a weekend in jail for something like that.  Insead he's just free to tromp around breaking people's hearts like he was Jennifer Love Hewitt in Heartbreakers.  Ain't right.

Weekend Review

Once again, in my highly educated opinion, the Gopher hoops team didn't do enough to get into the Who was Awesome bucket, but also certainly didn't suck, so they won't be making an appearance in this Weekend Review. For all my thoughts on the win at Colorado State, see the post below this one.


WHO WAS AWESOME

1. Michigan Hoops. The Big Ten basketball pecking order was pretty well set, with Purdue, Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Michigan State in one tier, and everyone else in the other. Who would step up and take that fifth spot, and likely put themselves in the bubble conversation come season’s end? I had hoped it would be the Gophers, but after this week Michigan took a big step in the right direction with their 55-52 upset win over UCLA in the Coaches vs. Cancer semifinals. They ended up losing by 15 to Duke in the final, but that win will loom large if they end up on the bubble in March, not to mention it may serve as notice that the Wolverines are back to being a legitimate team.

2. Utah Football. I had mentioned BYU in this space before as a team that had a chance to come from outside the Big Six conferences to grab a BCS bowl bid, but they’re old news now, with Utah smoking them 48-24 to finish the season 12-0, winning the Mountain West and giving them a spot in one of the BCS bowls. Utah is no joke, as they have the most wins against Big Six teams for a team outside those conferences since the BCS began with 16, and are 10-3 against those teams since 2004, with wins over Michigan and possible Pac-10 champ Oregon State this season. They are going to give some BCS team a hell of a game this bowl season.

3. Michael Turner. The Burner rushed for 4 Touchdowns and 117 yards, kicking division leading Carolina right in their stupid faces and bring Atlanta to 7-4, just one game back. I've spent a lot of time writing about the Falcons here, and rightly so as it's a hell of a story. They are likely a playoff team and a dark horse super bowl contender, all with a rookie quarterback and a pretty much revamped offense. I'm sure Bogart's guy Mike Vick is having a great time in prison though, so that's good. His team will probably win the prison bowl, so that's a ring right there.

4. Xavier. The Musketeers won the Puerto Rico Tip Off Challenge after beating Missouri, Virginia Tech, and #13 Memphis in the final. An impressive run, particularly for a team I thought had lost too much from the excellent teams of the last few years to be anything other than an Atlantic 10 contender. Just like the last few years, they are doing it with a balanced attack; they have three guys averaging double figure scoring, and six who are at 7.8 ppg or better. The big key to this team is freshman point guard Terrell Holloway, who has stepped in for Drew Lavender and is keeping the team going. He doesn't put up great numbers and isn't particularly flashy, but he runs the offense well and keeps the game in his control in the final minutes, and his 96% free throw shooting helps immensely down the stretch. Two things about Memphis: it is impossible to keep Robert Dozier and Shawn Taggert off the boards, and free throws are still going to be a problem. Oh, and Tyreke Evans is really good, and perfect for that system.

5. Down with Goldy. I know what you're thinking, "DWG is always awesome, you don't need to put it in this list to tell us that, we all know." And it's true, DWG is always awesome, but we recently received some nice praise that I want to tell you about. A site called Learning XL, which gives tips, tools, and resources for lifelong learners, has included us in the Top 100 College Sports Blogs. We here at DWG are flattered, humbled, and bewildered by our inclusion. A big thanks to LearningXL and their parent, UniXL.com


WHO SUCKED

1. Gopher Football. Embarrassing. Anyone who calls this season a success should be stabbed in the face.

2. Pac 10 Hoops. Remember last year, when the Pac was arguably the best conference in the country? Yeah, that’s not happening this year. UCLA lost to Michigan. USC lost to Seton Hall and Missouri. Washington lost to Portland. Arizona lost to UAB. Oregon lost to Oakland. Oregon State lost to Howard. Essentially, the Pac 10 has lost every significant test they’ve had this season, other than UCLA’s win over Southern Illinois. There were arguments last season that the conference could have had 8 teams in the tournament; this year it looks like four would be lucky.

3. SEC Hoops. Not quite an embarrassment to the level of the Pac 10 this year, but SEC teams aren’t exactly lighting the world on fire right now either. Kentucky has that big loss to VMI and was embarrassed pretty good by North Carolina. Georgia lost to a horrible Loyola of Chicago team, Vandy lost to Illinois, Alabama and Auburn both lost at home to Mercer, Arkansas lost to Missouri State, and Ole Miss lost their only test against Utah. They aren’t quite down to the level of the Pac 10, and Tennessee and Florida should both be fine, but the conference has not impressed thus far.

4. Philadelphia Eagles. Stick a fork in the Eagles and Donovan McNabb, they suck - as I predicted. In what may have been the ugliest game by a team this year other than the Gophers, the Eagles got rolled by Baltimore 36-7, after turning the ball over five times including a 108 yard interception return for a TD by Ed Reed. McNabb was benched after putting up a 13.4 rating for the game, replaced by Kevin Kolb who was much better with a 15.3. Even worse, the 7 points they managed to score didn't even come from the offense, and was on a kick return by Quinton Demps, who I'm going to assume is the brother of Will. According to an article on yahoo what that I can't find the link to now, McNabb is likely on his way out of Philly. Welcome to Minnesota, Donovan. The good news here is that Baltimore was my defense in one of my fantasy leagues yesterday.