Twins Remain Delusional, Make no Moves at Trade Deadline

Aargh this is frustrating.  Once again, the Twins made no moves at the trade deadline (outside of the Liriano deal) despite being irrefutably out of playoff contention and having players other teams covet but who don't or shouldn't figure in the team's future plans - you know, the perfect combination to make a whole bunch of trades (see:  Astros, Houston).  Last season the team had Jason Kubel, Michael Cuddyer, and Joe Nathan (among others) who were all going to be free agents and all could have been traded away, yet none were.  I was frustrated but understood the thinking at least, given that the Twins would receive a draft pick for each once they signed somewhere else - that isn't the case this year.

There were reports of team's after Denard Span, Justin Morneau, Josh Willingham, Jared Burton, and Glen Perkins, and there was absolutely no reason to hold on to Morneau or Burton (and maybe not Perkins either, depending on your opinion of his future).  At this point the Twins need to realize they're at least two more years if not more away from contending and it's time to figure out who is going to be a part of this team when it comes back around, assuming it does, and then trade everybody else.  Span is still a pure leadoff hitter, and although he and Revere are somewhat redundant he's also signed to a very team friendly deal through 2015 so there's no reason to trade him unless a deal knocks you on your ass, which apparently the Reds didn't do today - although if you could get Homer Bailey and a couple good prospects I'd have pulled the trigger.  Willingham's kind of in the same boat, pretty much the team's only pure power hitter who is also signed to a great contract through 2014, so I get holding on to him too.  But the rest?

Morneau has a big contract, owed $14 million next year and a pro-rated $14 for the rest of this year so it might be a litter tougher to get full value back, but it was reported the Dodgers, Giants, and Blue Jays were all after him, but the Twins were asking for too much back, including a major leaguer in return and having the team that received Morneau pick up his entire contract.  Well guess what?  If you can't get that this year you sure as shit aren't going to get it next year when he's just going to be a two month rental for some team.  At least this year whatever team traded for him would get an entire year and change out of the deal.  Now?  They've basically gambled that he can get himself back to a $14 million a year player, at which point they won't be able to afford to resign him after his contract is up because they're hamstrung by the Mauer deal.  Best case scenario at this point is he plays out of his mind, walks, and they get a pick.  Well played, Terry Ryan.

And as for Burton and Perkins?  They're relievers.  Relievers pretty much grow on trees.  Reports are the Rangers were going after Burton and that "Perkins was in high demand today."  What?  For what reason would you possibly hold on to middle relievers when you aren't a contender?  Perkins, maybe, if you've decided he's your closer of the future (foolish, but it at least makes some sense) but Burton?  The average lifespan of a middle reliever on a team is 1.2 years, a figure I completely made up but it sounds right.  From year-to-year they're notoriously unreliable, and the odds Burton is on this team when they're back in contention are basically nil.  It just doesn't make a lick of sense.

Who on this team might possibly matter in the future?  Mauer, because they're stuck with him.  Span, Revere, Willingham, Dozier, Plouffe, and Parmelee?  I mean, I like Ryan Doumit quite a bit, but on a team like the Twins he's just a placeholder so if anybody comes sniffing around him (and it sounds like nobody did this year) he's another one who should be traded.  Diamond's pretty much the only starter worth penciling in your 2014 rotation, and between their lack of value and youth they'll obviously hold on to guys like DeVries, Deduno, Walters, and Hendriks, but pretty much everybody else needs to go and if they don't trade Carl Pavano at the waiver deadline I'm going to start making Molotov Cocktails.

There's no point to being shitty with old, crappy players who are going to be out of the league by the time you stop sucking.  The Astros have it figured out, trading Chris Johnson, Wandy Rodriguez, Brett Myers, Brandon Lyon, J.A. Happ, and Carlos Lee in the last month.  Basically everybody they knew wasn't a key building block or had no chance of developing into one.  The Pirates used this basic strategy for years, and are now in line to make the playoffs for the first time since Barry Bonds couldn't throw out Sid Bream.  Their leadoff hitter for most of this season (Jose Tabata) and one of their starters (Jeff Karstens) were acquired for Damaso Marte and Xavier Nady in 2008, their second guy off the bench and super utility man was acquired from the Cubs for two middle relievers in 2009, two other starters were acquired in the Nate McLouth trade (Charlie Morton) and Octavio Dotel trade (James McDonald), and they got their closer (Joel Hanrahan) for Lastings Milledge when they gave up on him.  They've also got great organizational depth thanks to the sheer volume of prospects and minor leaguers they've acquired.  Of course, it also helps that they've nailed the draft recently (Pedro Alvarez, Andrew McCutchen, Neil Walker, Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon, Starling Marte) but the point stands.

And of course, what do Dick and Bert open up tonight's broadcast with?  How glad they are nobody other than Liriano was traded.  Honest to god I think I'd rather have Hawk Harrelson's over-the-top homer shtick than this aw shucks folksy we love these boys bullshit these two keep slingin'.  No wonder the Twins' brass can get away with this, the announcers are feeding the fans this crap and they're eating it up based on what I've heard on the radio and read on the internet.  It's like some sort of crazy collective delusion where everybody thinks this team is team is thisclose to being a contender again - like a cult like those Waco guys or the Mormons or Dyson Vacuum Cleaner Owners.  Guess what, idiots?  This is the worst version of the Twins we've seen in our lifetimes.  FACT.  The 1981 and 1982 editions were a worse combo than 2011 and 2012, but I was too young to care or even realize what was going on, and outside of then this is the worst two year stretch in team history.  There is no quick fix.  When you need to burn your house down for insurance money and then build a new, better house you don't run around swapping out a few chairs for equally shitty, but different chairs - you burn that mother down with gasoline and a bazooka.  Like Beavis would.

WAR, what is it good for?

Inspired by this post by the always awesome Joe Posnanski over on his blog (which should be required reading every day), I thought I'd have a little bit of fun with WAR - Wins Above Replacement - a stat that old fogies hate and new stat nerds love.  I sit in the middle somewhere, but am far closer to the nerd side

It's a pretty complicated formula I won't get into here, but it basically puts a number to "how many more games would you win with this guy in your lineup than the dork on the end of the bench or that career minor leaguer in AAA."  Pretty simple in concept, if not execution.  Evan Longoria leads the American League with a 6.7 number, meaning the Rays, currently 86-56, would be approximately 79-63 without him and with someone like Alexi Casilla in there instead, and would be in a dead heat with Chicago and Boston for the Wild Card and no where near the AL East crown.  Sounds about right.

So with that in mind, I took a look at some Twins, past and present, to see if I could uncover anything interesting.  You be the judge.

-  The first thing I notice about the current squad is that Denard Span has a WAR of 0.0.  That means he his the very definition of a replacement level center fielder.  At first it seems hard to believe, but he's a mediocre defensive player, a terrible base-runner, and his biggest strength as a batter - his plate patience and ability to draw a walk - has deserted him the second half of the season as pitchers realize he's not all that dangerous if you give him a strike.  His numbers are down across the board - batting average by 47 points, his OBP by 59, and his slugging by 66 - and his OPS+, a healthy 114 last year which was #2 amongst American League Outfielders, has plummeted to 87, 11th among AL center fielders, trailing the great Mitch Maier.  Jesus, I was so focused on his terrible baserunning I didn't even realize what a god awful all-around year he is having.  Maybe that contract they just signed him too wasn't such a bargain after all.  Also, I'm burning my Span T-shirt tonight.

-  Pitching-wise, Carl Pavano and Francisco Liriano are virtually tied at 4.6 and 4.7, which jibes with all the "who is the true ace?"  talk.  HINT:  It's Liriano.  In any case, this makes them the third and fourth most valuable Twins behind Morneau and Mauer at 5.4 and 5.3.  Yes, even though he's been out since July, Justin Morneau is still the most valuable Twin (and yes, WAR takes playing time into account).  Brian Duensing (3.3) and Jim Thome (3.2) round out the top six, followed by Danny Valencia (2.5) and Orlando Hudson (2.4) as the only Twins above 2.  Remember, position matters, which is why Hudson ranks better than Kubel and Delmon despite their better raw numbers.  Valencia is just a stud all the way around.

-  No shocker here, but Michael Cuddyer has to be one of the most disappointing players, ranking at a -0.1.  As an outfielder when he has a good year he's a valuable player (2ish WAR), but as a first baseman where the big hitters play, and when he's having a down year like this year, he's pretty much a liability.  It doesn't help that he's an absolutely terrible fielding first baseman, both in things quantifiable (-18 runs allowed worse this year than average) and not quantifiable (when is the last time he actually scooped a throw in the dirt?  June?)

- The all-time career Twins leader in WAR is Rod Carew, at 62.7, followed by Harmon Killebrew at 61.4.  Obviously Carew jumps ahead since he was a 2b, but that sounds pretty accurate to me.  Excluding guys who were Senators, the rest of the top five is Kirby Puckett, Tony Oliva, and.....Joe Mauer.  No joke, he's already top five in all-time WAR for Twins.  Such is the advantage of having such an outstanding offensive player at position that traditionally doesn't produce great offensive numbers.  The fact that he's a pretty damn good defensive catcher just hammers home how valuable he really is.  I like to rip on him because I hate media adoration no matter where or how it happens, but the guy is seriously amazing, and we're all lucky to watch him play.  Now if you'll excuse me, I need to go put in a new tampon and watch Vampire Diaries.

-  Shane Mack (career 18.5) was more valuable than Torii Hunter (16.9).  Ok.

-  The best season recent season was The Situation on Jersey Shore Season 1 with a 35.5, the second best mark of all-time, just ahead of Dwight Schrute Season 2 (34.4) but still behind Barney Stinson Season 3 (40.7).

-  The top pitchers in Twins history are Bert Blyleven (45.7), Brad Radke (41.4), Johan Santana (32.1), Camilo Pascual (30.5) and Jim Kaat (26.7).  But that's only if you don't count Walter Johnson on the Senators, who racked up a WAR of 127.7.

-  Speaking of the Big Train, he also has 8 of the top 10 single season by a Twin/Senator pitcher, including the top four and 8 of the top 9.  The only two guys who sneak into top 10 are Bert Blyleven in 1973 and Frank Viola in 1987.  Despite that, Johan does have more top 20s than anybody other than Walter, finishing 11th in 2004, 15th in 2006, and 19th in 2005. 

-  Amongst pitchers with at least 25 starts in a season, the worst WARs belong to Joe Mays in 2005, Jim DeShaies in 1994 and Carlos Silva in 2006.  Sounds about right.  And, funny, those guys were all way worse than Nick Blackburn this year.  I know that seems hard to believe.

-  Hitting wise, best Twins seasons belong to Rod Carew 1977, Chuck Knoblauch 1996, Joe Mauer 2008, Rod Carew 1975, and Joe Mauer 2009.  You know, the Twins really have a nice history of players at non-historically offensive positions having good/great offensive seasons.  Besides those five above, the next five have a shortstop (Zoilo Versalles 1965), a center fielder (Kirby Puckett 1988), and a second baseman (Carew 1976).  So 8 of the top 10 WAR seasons in Twins' history have come from "defensive" positions.  Then in the next 10, you get six more from either C, 2b, or CF.  Looks like the Twins have historically always gotten a large chunk of offense from these types of positions.  Or their traditional power positions suck, outside of Killebrew.  I know my opinion.

-  Kent Hrbek was pretty good though.  He never hit any amazing highs (his best season was 1984, at a WAR of 5.4 which ranks 31st in Twins history), but he also never had a full season (470+ PAs) where his WAR was less than 1.4.  That is the value of getting out early in order to spend your days fishing and drinking beer.

-  Finally, Gary Gaetti posted numbers of 2.7, 2.9, 2.1, 5.3, 2.4, and 4.2 from 1983-1988, an average of 3.0 per year.  Pretty good.  That ranks him as the 18th best 3b since 1980 during that portion of his career (years 3-8), ranked right with Edgar Martinez and Paul Molitor (and Corey Koskie!!).  Then, starting in 1989, he posted 1.1, 1.7, 1.4, -0.8, and -0.3.  Yes, at one point there he was actually worse than a journeyman AAA player.  What possibly could have happened to Gaetti between 1988 and 1989?  Yes, you guessed it.  He became a crazy religious zealot.

So the question is, did Jesus turn Gary Gaetti from the next Paul Molitor to the next Ed Sprague?  Yes, I think he did.  He's a madman who rode Dinosaurs, became an undead zombie, turned some poor broad into a table condiment, and would stone you to death for eating delicious prawns, so yes, I think it's entirely possible he'd be up for ruining a hard-nosed, hard-partying corner infielder's career.  I mean, look at this loon:

G-Man never had a chance.

By the way, if you put "Gary Gaetti Jesus" into google image search, somehow the seventh image that pops up is the picture of Baby Ben^TM flipping you people off.  I don't know how that shit works, but I love that one.

Random Thoughts whilst watching the Twins game

-  Hey Punto, when you end up on the ground after throwing the ball all the way from the infield grass over to first base you don't look like a gritty hustler, you look like a moron.

-  Text from Snacks at the game:  "I'm actually watching Matt Wieters in person.  He looks 10 feet tall."  Seems low.

-  Hey Bert, when Miguel Tejada slides into first base on a close play on a grounder, you shouldn't laud him for being a great leader for a young team at age 35.  First, he's from Latin America which means he's probably closer to 40, and second, sliding into first is literally one of the dumbest things you can do on a baseball field.  For an ex-player you are insanely dumb.

-  You know what makes me feel really grown up and classy?  The fact that I'm sitting here drinking Captain Cokes.  After this maybe I'll just wash it down with some Coors Lights from the fridge.  I can't decide if I feel more college or more trailer.

-   Do you realize that both Ron Coomer and Dan Gladden are affiliated with the Twins in some sort of broadcast capacity?  Don't you want to look for maybe more, I don't know, cerebral ex-players to fill these roles?  I get Bert, because he's very friendly and personable in both real life and on the broadcast, so his dumb little things he says are almost endearing, but Coomer and Gladden drive me crazy.  Especially Gladden.  The Dazzle Man?  The Dazzle Man?  Dear god, why?

-  So apparently on the broadcasts now they do a "Legendary Performance on this date in Twins' history" thing.  Tonight's was from 2008, when Joe Mauer doubled in the top of the ninth to break up Gavin Floyd's no-hitter - a game the Sox won 7-1.  Seriously?  That's the best thing you could find on this date in Twins' history?  Something that the White Sox could use as a legendary performance on this date in their history?  Or is this just a Joe Mauer thing?  Like, every day they have to say something Mauer did once?  So maybe tomorrow it could be "On this date in 2007 Joe Mauer actually played catcher in a day game following a night game."  Awesome.

-  I somehow missed Wieters second at-bat.  How is he 0-2?  Is Carl Pavano now Warren Spahn?  What's happening here?

-  Kubel almost got a hit!  That would have made him 2-2!  Yep, facing Brad Bergeson cures all.

-  Did you know Alexi Casilla has stole 29 bases out of 32 attempts in his career?  That's incredible.   And just now FSN flashed that same stat up, thus meaning I wasted my time looking it up on my own.  Thanks, dicks.

-  Even with that success rate, however, in the five pitches they threw Punto (which ended in him, yes, sliding headfirst into first base) they didn't send him.  Know why?  Wieters.

-  Don't you find it awfully fishy that Dick and Bert get the daily trivia question right like, 99% of the time?  I'm pretty sure if you came up to them on the street and asked who was the all-time leader in home runs they wouldn't be able to get it, yet they just nailed all four Oriole managers since Ron Gardenhire took over.  Suspicious.

-  Bert now whining about how so many players who have hit more HRs than Harmon Killebrew are "tainted."  Then he said Jim Thome "has no taint."  I'll leave that one alone.

-  Wieters with a great at-bat, falling behind 0-2 and then fighting back to work a walk.  Guy is just solid.  Like Jesus.  Just a solid dude.

-  Brad Bergeson entered tonight's game with an ERA of 10.57 and a WHIP of 2.22 over 5 starts.  He hadn't even made it to the sixth at any point this season, and got ripped by teams like Seattle and Toronto.  He was so bad he was sent to triple-A at one point this year.  He is so bad, I just realized I've been spelling his name wrong this whole time.  And yet, he's now shut the Twins out through six and allowed just five hits.  Jesus, talk about an emotional hangover after sweeping Detroit.

-   The Twins trying to hit Bergeson is like Audrina trying to look like less than a perfect 10.  Futile.

-  Well, they finally chased Bergeson, and we now have two on and two out in a 2-0 game with Morneau up facing some fat lefty they just brought in.  Since Morneau is on my fantasy team, I'm going to predict a weak ground-out.

-  Well, he got him 0-2 and then walked him.  You might say that Morneau is very Wieters-like in his ability to work the count.

-  And Thome strikes out with the bases loaded, still 2-0 Orioles.  They should have signed Jermaine Dye instead.

-  This is a really impressive outing for Pavano.  8 ips, 6 hits, 8 Ks.  Other than that home run to Wiggington he's been basically flawless.  On a related note, did you know Wigginton has 10 home runs this year?  How can that even be possible?  His career high is 24, and now he's on pace to hit 50.  Probably a roids guy.  Also, did you know he finished 8th in the rookie of the year voting in 2003?  You probably didn't.  That's why I'm here.  I'm an educator.  You're welcome.

-  Funny story.  You know that MacGruber movie that's coming out that is based on those terrible SNL sketches and seems like the worst thing you've ever heard of and how could anybody be dumb enough to make that movie?  Yeah, it's currently at 100% at Rotten Tomatoes.  It's only 7 reviews so far, but every single one has been positive.  I have no idea how this can be.  I'm flummoxed.  Also flummoxing is Jason Kubel's sudden inability to hit.

-  Text from Grand Slam:  "Is Tejada a Hall-of-Famer?"  My gut says no, so I decided to check out his actual numbers to be more accurate.  According to the Black Ink and Grey Ink tests on baseball reference (these evaluate a player based on leading the league in things or top 5) he's not even close, but according to Bill James' HOF Monitor test, which awards points for hitting over .300 or 30 home run season and such, he should be.  Looking at his career, he has had some seriously monster seasons (including a 150 rbi year) and has gotten an MVP vote in 8 different seasons, including winning one in 2002 (not even his 150 rbi year).  Being an offensive force at a position like SS definitely helps his cause.  He's third all-time in HRs by a SS and 6th in RBI.  I don't think he's got enough to get in, but he'll be an interesting case.

-  Alfredo Simon in to get the save, and lucky for him he gets to start with Casilla and Punto.  This guy is super hittable/walkable.  If I were the Twins I'd make sure to come back and win this game.  You just can't lose to the O's.

-  Ground out, Ground out, Ground out.  Game over, and the Orioles have shut out your precious Twins.

Season over.

-   God the NBA is boring.  Or at least this Orlando/Atlanta series is.

-  Jamarcus Russell was straight up cut by Oakland?  Man, I don't use this often because it's stupid but L.O.L.  I did hear a story on the radio today about how coaches always prepare a DVD of the game plan for the next game and give it to the QBs to study, and the Oakland coaches suspected that Russell wasn't watching it.  So one week they gave him a blank DVD, and then asked him what he thought of it and his answer was "it looks pretty good."  Seriously though, if he didn't blow through his money like a typical athlete, he's set.  He got $31.5 million in guaranteed money, so if he just lived even remotely frugally he'd be set for life and he would have hardly ever gotten tackled.  He could just chill for the rest of his life and never have to work again.  Of course, I'm going to assume he owns like 8 cars and has 6 kids and is probably already close to broke and we'll hear about him robbing a liquor store in three years, but I'm a stereotyper like that.

-  I just read that Russell's cousin is Marshawn Lynch.  Wow.  That family really has their shit together.

-  Also, he was actually better than both Ryan Leaf, and Akili Smith.  God there have been some really bad quarterbacks (Spergon Wynn).  And this is also a super boring conversation so I'm just going to stop now.

-  Before I go, I want to let you know that Justin Smoak went yard again today.  ROY (unless they give it to Wieters, even though it's his second year).

-  Jenna Fischer is still hot.

FACT

FACT:  Bert Blyleven is a liar - or at least has a poor memory.

If you watched tonight's game, you might have heard Bert tell a charming little story about how he threw a slider only once in his career.  He said he threw it to Cliff Johnson when Johnson was Bert was with Cleveland, and Johnson hit it "about 500 feet."  Bert said he threw it because Johnson had fouled off about seven pitches already so he tried to mix it up.

Problem.

Bert did indeed give up one home run to Cliff Johnson in his career, but it was when Bert was throwing for the Pirates in 1980.  You would also think he'd remember a bit more, considering Johnson's home run came in the top of the ninth in a 4-3 game, tying the game, which would eventually last twenty innings (Bert pitched 10).  Seems like a pretty memorable game and home run.

Just sayin'.

Thank you baseball-reference.com.

Bert gets Hosed

As I am sure you are aware of by now, Bert Blyleven once again was denied entry to the Baseball Hall of Fame, this time by a mere five votes (I heard it was six somewhere else but I'll roll with five because that sounds more dramatic).  I am still not sure why there are people not voting for him, but I'm pretty sure it's because sportswriters are idiots.  (Exhibit B would be Roberto Alomar not getting in, simply because he "isn't first ballot material" which is the dumbest shit I've ever heard.)  It's clearly because they are hung up on him not having 300 wins and/or not winning a Cy Young award.  Ok, fine.  Dumb, nonsensical, but fine.  You're an idiot.

There are also a lot of people voting for Jack Morris, who got 52% of the vote.  I also disagree with this, but whatever, you people are entitled to your own opinion even if it's stupid.  But what really boggles the mind is the people who are voting for Morris over Blyleven.  "What?", you are probably saying, "No way did anybody vote for Black Jack over Bert."  Oh but it's true.  I have proof.  Here is the ballot submitted by the ESPN writers.  Notice anything?  Buster Olney, who I thought was a pretty smart guy, voted for Morris but not for Blyleven.  At least the other three guys who didn't vote for Bert had the common decency to leave Morris off as well.  I just don't get it.

WINS:  Blyleven 287, Morris 254
ERA:  Blyleven 3.31, Morris 3.90
ERA+:  Blyleven 118, Morris 105
WHIP:  Blyleven 1.20, Morris 1.30
Strikeouts:  Blyleven 3,701, Morris 2,478
K/9:  Blyleven 6.7, Morris 5.8
K/BB:  Blyleven 2.8, Morris 1.8
Shutouts:  Blyleven 60, Morris 28
Complete Games:  Blyleven 242, Morris 175
Winning Pct:  Blyleven .534, Morris .577
Cy Young top 3 finishes:  Blyleven 2, Morris 2
Cy Young top 10 finishes:  Blyleven 4, Morris 7

I will grant that Morris's seven top-10 finishes in the Cy Young voting is impressive, but outside of that for what reason could you possibly think Morris is a more worthy candidate than Blyleven, leaving aside whether Morris is worthy or not in the first place?  He won three wings, Bert won two - that's a function of playing on better teams, as is the winning percentage and actually many of the Cy Young top 10s as well, since four of the seven times he finished that high in the voting he wasn't even in the top 10 of the American League in ERA.


Yes, the game 7 of the 1991 Series performance was still one of the greatest things I've had the pleasure of watching, and I will always love Black Jack for it and won't complain if he gets in, even though I don't think he should.  But to vote for him over Bert because he started a bunch of opening days in a row and had the most wins in an arbitrary 10-year period (and make no mistake, despite our base-10 obsessed culture a decade is still an arbitrary span of years) is ludicrous.


How could you Buster Olney?  You broke my heart.

 

Baseball Fun Facts

Even in the midst of this very exciting Gopher basketball season, and a fun college hoops season in general, the other day I found myself looking forward to opening day for YOUR Minnesota Twins (This is Twins Territory, after all). Perhaps influenced a bit by the Hall of Fame Inductions today, whereupon the inimitable Rickey Henderson and overrated Jim Rice got in, but our very own beloved birthday-lover and compulsive circler Bert Blyleven fell short again, I am very much in a baseball mood.

I don't really feel like breaking down the arguments for and against Blyleven (should be in), Black Jack Morris (out), Tim Raines (in), Tommy John (out), Mark McGwire (in), Andre Dawson (out), Lee Smith (out), Alan Trammell (in) and the rest. I also can't really break down any major Twins happenings, since that roster has seen less action than the Todd so far this winter. The only moves of even the slightest note were the Punto signing, which shouldn't have happened - not for that much money, and the R.A. Dickey signing which I already blogged about, less than enthusiastically. Although I could mention that the Egyptian was on the same plane as Punto last month, and unfortunately couldn't quite place who he was, at one point wondering if he was mildly retarded.

So what's a brother to do? I think I'll just play around with both baseball reference and Minor League Ball and see what happens. I should also note I'm having a drink right now (vodka & cranberry - with lime - naturally) but I don't plan to get drunk so this probably won't be all that funny.

- Speaking of funny, don't forget that we here at Down with Goldy are proud sponsors of the Scott Stahoviak page at baseball reference.

- Do you know who is the career leader in home runs amongst Hall of Fame eligible players other than Mark McGwire? It's Jose Canseco, with 462 steroid-free home runs. Ozzie Canseco hit zero; although he did hit 49 in his minor-league career. I read his book by the way, Jose's not Ozzie's, and it was ok. There's no review of it on this page because I finished it on February 13, 2007 but didn't start the blog until April of 2007. It was mostly Jose bitching about how the league didn't treat him fairly, very much like the Pete Rose book, actually. A lot of whining in both.

- If you're wondering how I know the exact date I finished the Canseco book, it's because I keep a very nerdy list in Excel detailing all the books I read. Yes, I'm fully aware how nerdy that is, but I don't care. For the record, it was 52 books in 2006, 62 in 2007, 43 in 2008 (stupid baby), and 1 so far this year (Zero: the biography of a dangerous idea by Charles Seife - if you like math I fully recommend it, if you're a typical mouth-breather who reads this crappy blog, stay far way and stick to your Maxim).

- The non-HOFer with the most career RBI is Harold Baines with 1,628 which surprises me a bit. He had more RBI in his career than George Brett, Mike Schmidt, Harmon Killebrew, Joe DiMaggio, Tris Speaker, Willie McCovey, Willie Stargell, and Jim Rice, among many others. That's impressive. More impressive if RBI was a stat that wasn't so largely dependent on good teammates and opportunity, but still.

- Corey Koskie had more RBI in his career than Mike Pagliarulo, although Pags kicks the Canadian's ass in non-sensical blog entries.

- How about batting average, since I know you people are so in love with it. Don't have to look far down the list, as Lefty O'Doul ranks fourth all-time with a career average of .349 and he is not a HOFer. Pretty good player, but was only around for like seven years or so, amassing just 1,140 career hits. He was basically Matt Holliday if Holliday's career ended right now, but with a higher average and slightly less power.

- By the way, I just want to let it be known that Luke Harangody cannot guard Samardo Samuels, and I mean at all.

- How about OPS+, that's a good one. You know who the top 5 guys in OPS+ all-time are? Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Barry Bonds, Lou Gehrig, and Rogers Hornsby. Yeah, it's a pretty good talent evaluator. Interestingly, Albert Pujols ranks tied for seventh on that list, I guess he's been pretty decent. The leader not in the hall of fame is Pete Browning, with an OPS+ of 162 which is tied with McGwire and better than Stan Musial, Willie Mays, and Hank Aaron. Of course, Browning's last game was played in 1894 so his numbers are a bit weird, although his 9 home runs in 1885 were third in the American Association.

- Here's something interesting I stumbled upon: Ned Williamson hit 27 home runs in a 112 game season in 1884 for the Chicago White Stockings, a record that stood for 35 years until some fat ass named Babe Ruth hit 29 in 1919. However, "Williamson benefited from a very short outfield fence in his home ballpark, Lakeshore Park. During the park's previous years, balls hit over the fence in that park were ground-rule doubles, but in 1884 (its final year) they were credited as home runs. Williamson led the pace, but several of his Chicago teammates also topped the 20 HR mark that season. Of Williamson's total, 25 were hit at home, and only 2 on the road." Interesting, looking a bit deeper, the previous year he had just 2 home runs, but 49 doubles. I'm guessing most of those were at home.

- I love how the parks were all quirky back in the day, which is why I loved the crazy hill in center field at Enron, but nothing could compare to the Baker Bowl. The home park of the Phillies until 1938, the Baker Bowl had a wall in right field that made the Green Monster look like a little girl. It was 60 feet high and was just 280 feet from home plate, compared to the Monster which is just 37 feet high and 310 feet away. So it was about 20 feet higher and 30 feet closer than the Green Monster. Crazy. And basically the reason Chuck Klein destroyed the league from 1929 - 1933.

- Ok, enough about with the history lesson. Let's take a page from Doc Brown's book and look to the future, but I warn you it's bleak.

- The Twins top 20 prospect list is out from John Sickels of Minor League Ball, and I warn you it ain't pretty. Look:

1) Ben Revere, OF, Grade B+: Picking between Revere and Hicks is tough, but I went with the guy with the bigger track record. Kenny Lofton possibilities here.
2) Aaron Hicks, OF, Grade B+. Could flip with Revere due to higher power ceiling.
3) Wilson Ramos, C, Grade B: Good glove, strong bat.
4) Shooter Hunt, RHP, Grade B: Some worries about his command.
5) Danny Valencia, 3B, Grade B-: Might have strike zone problems.
6) Jose Mijares, LHP, Grade B-: Terrific arm, erratic, has command and personality issues.
7) Kevin Mulvey, RHP, Grade B-: Exact opposite of Mijares, okay stuff but with strong command and makeup.
8) Carlos Gutierrez, RHP, Grade B-: Not going to bet against this guy after the Twins proved to be right about Revere.
9) Rob Delaney, RHP, Grade B-: Is this too high? Should he be a C+?
10) Chris Parmalee, OF, Grade C+: Got hurt, low batting average, but still young, lots of power and walks.
11) Angel Morales, OF, Grade C+: Great tools, power, but plate discipline a big problem.
12) David Bromberg, RHP, Grade C+: High ERA masks strong K/IP ratio, looks interesting to me.
13) Tyler Robertson, LHP, Grade C+: Would rank higher if not for arm problems.
14) Anthony Slama, RHP, Grade C+: Good solid relief arm.
15) Luke Hughes, 3B, Grade C+: Worried about the strike zone with this one.
16) Anthony Swarzak, RHP, Grade C+: Check out the component marks in Triple-A; they are more important than the pretty ERA.
17) Steven Tolleson, INF, Grade C+: Intriguing player, could rank higher depending on what you want to emphasize.
18) Jeff Manship, RHP, Grade C+: Could have been victim of bad luck in Double-A, as K/IP and K/BB remained steady.
19) Jason Pridie, OF, Grade C+: Interesting mix of strengths and weaknesses, still seem him as a fourth outfielder.
20) Charles Nolte, RHP, Grade C+: Favorite of ground ball fetishists.
21) Bobby Lanigan, RHP, Grade C+: Sleeper from the 2008 draft.

Before I talk about who is on this list, let's talk about who is NOT on this list: Deolis Guerra. Remember him? The second big prospect from the Santana trade (other than Carlos Gomez who Snacks says has the most talent of any Twin and that includes Mauer and Morneau) who was ranked the #2 prospect in the Mets system by Baseball Prospectus and instantly became the #1 Twins prospect? Uh, yeah, it's not good. A little deeper digging shows that Guerra had some serious problems this season, not just in his numbers - 5.47 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, disgusting 1-1 BB/K ratio - but also in his mechanics and ability. Apparently his fastball has fallen down to the 86-88 miles per hour range, and had several starts where he didn't touch 90 on the gun. What this means is the Twins pretty much traded Sandy Koufax for Vince Coleman, Les Straker, Brien Taylor (or Todd Van Poppel), and David West. THAT'S SO AWESOME.

- Should I live blog a movie again? I enjoy doing it, but is it entertaining to read?

- Back to that Santana trade, it looks like Mulvey still has a shot at least, coming in as the #7 prospect, but Humber is nowhere to be found. THAT IS ALSO SO AWESOME.

- #15 on the list, 3B-man Luke Hughes is intriguing, mostly because he was first pointed out to me by Dawger in this post. As Sickels mentions, Hughes strikes out a ton (once every 3.8 ABs last year in AA/AAA) but he still really made some leaps in hitting the baseball last year. With the black hole that seemingly will not be filled at third base, if he can duplicate his AA numbers from last year (.319/.385/.551 and 15 homers in 285 ABs) at AAA this year, we could see him with the big club. I guarantee he's better than Tony Batista.

- #11 on the list Angel Morales could be an absolute stud. He's just 18 years old, but led the Appalachian League in home runs last season with 15 in 183 at bats, racking up a line of .301/.413/.623. Seventy-two strikouts in 185 at bats is a bit troubling, but he can hit for average, takes walks, and hits for power and to the gaps. Keep your eye out for this dude.

- Lastly, you'll notice Jason Pridie at #19 despite sucking badly. Eduardo Morlan, who the Twins traded back to Tampa in that deal, checks in at #13 for the Rays and continues to put up excellent numbers as a reliever in the minors. That's depressing. Not as depressing as Matt Garza winning NLCS MVP, but still.

Hall of Players Cranky Old Dudes Like inductions announced

The Sidler can't believe Shawon Dunston got a fucking vote for the Hall of Fame. Apparently the Shawon-O-Meter gets a vote, who knew.

Anyways, the ignorant, insular organization known as the BBWAA made their Hall of Fame selection today and at least the player they picked belonged: Goose Gossage, who was either the best or second-best closer/relief ace in the league throughout most of his career.

That's the only player the BBWAA found worthy of making the Hall. No "Circle Me" Bert Blyleven, Tim Raines, Alan Trammell, or Mark McGwire. Bert and Raines should be no brainers but lack the headline numbers these fat slobs need to see, and I can handle neither Trammell or McGwire not making it yet even though both are worthy in my opinion. I would have been OK The Hawk, Andre Dawson as well, but only if he'd agree to enter the Hall with an Expos cap.

My biggest problem with the BBWAA's voting comes with the guy second on the list, Jim Rice. According to the East Coast media, pitchers were literally shitting their pants the second Rice stepped into the box in the late 70s. He had a killer 77-79, no doubt, but from there his resume gets spotty and there's no way he's more deserving than Bert, Rock, or even the Hawk. If Rice had put up those stats on the Texas Rangers, no one would care, but since he's a former marquee player from Boston, he gets votes.

But whatever, this dumb group includes Woody Paige, who apparently votes for any player on the ballot that played a game as a member of the Rockies. That fact along makes me not really care who they deem worthy...

Circle me Bert

So I've been asked by some very important people to take a look at the Bert Blyleven for the hall of fame discussion. The kind of people you don't say no to. So, of course, I will tackle it the way I always look at difficult issues: Drunk. Still drinking. Semi-coherent while I flip between the Pats/Giants and Arizona/Memphis. The only true way to evaluate anything.

Also please let the Patriots lose. I don't even care if they go ahead and win the stupid super bowl after this, just don't let those homos go undefeated.

So anyway, going into this Bert has a huge strike against him for the whole "Circle me Bert thing." It's just stupid. And, I am very sad to admit, my mother has been circled twice. She's stupid that way. Although when we flew down to Texas on a free trip to watch the Twins, Bert was really nice to my family. Not like that son-of-a-bitch Jeff Reardon. Enjoy prison, dumb fuck!

So, before getting into the stats, my impression of Bert is a very good pitcher for a very long time. Never considered the best at his position at any time, but always very good. He's basically the very definition of a borderline hall of famer. There are two arguments I'd like to dismiss right now:

1) He was never considered the best at his position: I would love to know how the F this is relevant. At all. You know who was the absolute, undisputed, most kick ass pitcher in the world and it wasn't even close in 1984 - Dwight Gooden. Does he deserve to be in? Guess who led the AL in ERA in 1988? Alan Anderson. Should he be in this conversation? Just a stupid argument and stop using it.

2) He has a "signature pitch." Really? You mean that hanging curve that gave up an all-time record 50 homeruns in 1986 and followed it up with 46 in '87? Stupid. You know who else had a great curveball? A billion other guys. The only reason you hear about Bert's stupid curveball all the time is because he announces Twins games and he can't stop talking about himself.

Ok, now that that is out of the way, let's see what we really have here by looking at what really matters, the numbers. Let's look at the most meaningless, but to many people most meaningful, stat: wins. Bert clocks in at 287 wins against 250 losses. Ouch. Those who are in love with the wins will tell you that you need 300 to get in. Not good for our buddy Bert.

Now, strikeouts, which are a pretty big deal, Bert ranks fifth. The top 17 players all are either in the hall or will be in the hall, if Schilling and Smoltz (and Clemens after the whole cheating thing) get in. That's some pretty good evidence.

I think the booze is hitting me hard because I had A LOT to say about this but now I can't seem to remember anymore, so I'll sum up quick:

Bert's strikeouts, complete games, ERA+ of 118, and WHIP of 1.20 over his career pretty clearly indicate he's a hall of fame caliber pitcher. The people not voting for him, I will almost guarantee, are doing it because he doesn't have 300 wins, which is a terribly retarded reason for not voting for someone. I realize stats like strikeouts and complete games are compiling type stats, which I ripped Brett Favre for, but in my defense, Favre is a raging homosexual.

Before I pass out in a haze of unremembering, I'd like to point out something blatantly stolen from Fire Joe Morgan - Blyleven had a ERA+ of 133 or better six times. Jack Morris = never. Or, in idiot terms, Morris never ever ever ever had an ERA less than 3. Blyleven did. Nine times.

Blyleven should seriously be in the hall. If anything should keep him out, it's his career save total of zero.

Tom Brady is also gay. I've seen it.