No Better Time for a Big Win

With all kinds of messy, confusing news coming out of the U, such as Nolen's ineligibility and Royce White practicing with the team, and nearly a week between games it was easy to forget the Gophers still play basketball.  But they do, and they're back at it again this weekend against Michigan State.  Yes, again.  These two teams played just eleven days ago, but it seems like an eternity.  Since that game, the Spartans have taken care of two mediocre opponents at home, while your beloved Gophers lost in truly dreadful fashion to the mighty Hoosiers.  I don't want to think about that, so let's get to our five questions:


1.  How will no Nolen affect the team?  Well I just wrote about this yesterday, so you can go ahead and read that, but basically either Devoe or Cobbs will need to take a huge step forward.  One is a freshman, the other is a shooting guard, so neither seems particularly likely.  The team does catch a bit of a break getting a chance to break those two in at home instead of on the road, but they also catch the opposite of a break because they immediately go against Michigan State and captain annoying Kalin Lucas.  The lost might be felt most in terms of turnovers, however.  The Spartans have been a turnover machine for much of the season, and the Gophers are usually excellent at turning teams over, especially at home, and I am pretty sure Nolen is directly responsible for half the TOs the Gophers force.  So yeah, that part really sucks.  The good news is no matter what happens, Gopher point guard shooting can't possibly get worse.

2.  Last time I said Ralph would be the key, how about this time?  Anybody stepping up and becoming an offensive threat would be a key, but I don't see any reason to believe Ralph is more likely than any other handful of Gophers.  He did show some increased aggressiveness against Indiana and got to the free throw line 15 times (making 11) but who on that team is going to stop him?  Red flags are everywhere when he only grabs five rebounds in 37 minutes against that team, not to mention how he was outmuscled, outhustled, and outworked last time they played the Spartans not only by big bruisers like Draymond Green, but by guys like Durrell Summers, too.  I'm not counting on him.

One thing I just thought of that might mean I'm stupid but I'm not sure is what about a little bit of Devron Bostick action?  He was huge last year in the big win at Madison when the team needed some offense and I know he's shot like crap this year but he had a really nice game against Iowa in limited time and showed flashes against Purdue as well.  Maybe it's time to give him some confidence, tell him to go play and he won't get yanked immediately if he makes a mistake, and see what he can do.  You have a better idea?  If they can cover up for him on defense his offensive game might be what they need.  I don't know.  And yes, I know I'm grasping.

3.  The Spartans really struggled against Iowa in East Lansing, what does that mean?  It means the Spartans aren't invinceable, but we pretty much saw that when the Gophers made the game close at the Breslin Center.  It also means that their ranking of #6 in the country is ridiculous right now.  Better than West Virginia?  Duke?  Georgetown?  No way.

I think they still have the potential to be that good, but until Kalin Lucas starts shooting better and the team starts taking better care of the basketball they are vulnerable.  The Gophers just need to take advantage.

4.  Tell me about Turnovers?  The Spartans have been a turnover prone squad most of the year, averaging around 15 a game, and the Gophers have been in the top ten nationally at forcing turnovers.  So what happened last time they played?  Sparty only turned it over 8 times and won a close contest - the type where a few more turnovers might have made the difference.  In their next two, Michigan State then turned it over 16 times against Illinois and 15 against Iowa - two teams that are absolutely wretched when it comes to forcing them (220th and 278th in the country).  This is the biggest advantage the Gophers have, and they absolutely will need to force several more than 8 if they want to pull the upset.  The press should be used all game and home court will help, but with the absence of Al Nolen the team might not be able to get it done.  Damian needs to come up big.

5.  Are the Spartans beatable at the Barn?  Absolutely.  I said it in the last preview, I said it above, and I'll say it again - I'm not impressed with Michigan State this year, or at least not as impressed as I had expected to be.  The 16-3 and 6-0 records look good, but they've struggled with some mediocre teams, their only good non-conference win was over Gonzaga, and with the exception of the home win over Wisconsin nothing in the conference record stands out as particularly impressive.  With the Gophers hanging close at the Breslin I was anticipating calling this a Gopher win.  However the loss at Indiana raised some serious questions, and Nolen's suspension raises quite a few more, so I just can't see it.

Michigan State 68, Minnesota 63.

Ralph's Coming Out Party?

You know how if you have to do some unpleasant task or there is some kind of problem and if you just ignore it sometimes it will go away?  If we all collectively agree to just ignore this game against Michigan State maybe it will just go away and we won't have to watch it.  No?  Fine, but I'm going to back to that five question style of preview I did for the Purdue game that everyone raved about.

1.  How do the Gophers match up?  It's not good.  The Spartans only go seven deep, but they cover just about everything:  big bruisers (Draymond Green), long and athletic forwards (Delvon Roe), guards who can penetrate (Kalin Lucas, Korey Lucious) and guards who can knock it down from outside (Chris Allen), all-around scorers (Raymar Morgan - although moreso his sophomore year) and hyper athletes (Durrell Summers).  Pretty much the only thing they are missing is a big-time center, and that might be a pretty big key (more on this later).

The Spartans are very balanced, with five players scoring in double-digits and four players averaging four boards or better per game.  They rank in the top 15 in offensive efficiency and top 40 in defensive efficiency.  They are a very good and very talented team who shares the ball extremely well and have a lot of guys who can hurt you at any time, and I don't think the Gophers have answers for Summers, Roe, or Green.  Yes, I'm worried.       

2.  What do we think of Blake now?  I have to say Blake is winning me over and last game against Ohio State where he put up 27 points might have been the biggest tipping point for me.  The Buckeyes are the exact type of team I expect to shut Blake down - super athletic, quick, and able to get around the perimeter in a hurry.  But he proved me wrong - he can find the space and opportunity to get his shot off against anybody (other than Purdue, apparently) with that lightning quick release.  As long as he stays hot (and please stay hot) the Gophers can play with anyone - although he is still a terrible defender and I have no clue who he is going to guard in this game.

3.  What's going on with Kalin Lucas?  Lucas, a popular pick for Big Ten Player of the Year, has had some issues with coach Tom Izzo this year, culminating in his being sent home from practice and then held out of the starting lineup for a game at the end of December due to, what Izzo called, "a lack of leadership."  Apparently on last year's team, which is nearly identical to this year's, the unquestionable leader was Travis Walton, and with him gone Izzo is looking for Lucas to fill that role and he hasn't delivered.  In the three games since the benching, Lucas has averaged 15.0 points, 3.0 assists, and 3.7 turnovers per game while shooting 44% - numbers that are all worse than his full season averages to this point.  Some of that can be attributed to those three games all being conference games and therefore tougher, but is Izzo's message getting through?  If I had to bet money, I'd guess that everything is and will be fine between Lucas and Izzo, but it's interesting to think about.

4.  Who is the key to the game?  The key to tomorrow night's game is Ralph Sampson.  Yes, you heard me.  As I mentioned above, Michigan State doesn't really have a center.  Without a key player bigger than 6-8, Michigan State is going to have to cover Ralph with either a freshman who averages eight minutes per game (Garrick Sherman) or cover him with a smaller player like Green or Roe.  I'm not including Colton here, because although I think he can be a factor on the boards - and will have to be - I do think his offensive output can be neutralized, but IF Ralph asserts himself and IF he wants it and IF the team looks for him, he could be huge.

Looking at MSU's games this season, the player I think is closest to Ralph is Robert Sacre, the center from Gonzaga.  He put up 17 on 7-12 versus a season average of 12 despite playing just 19 minutes due to foul trouble.  Sampson will need to do something similar and look to control this game.  And if he has success on the block and/or high post it's going to open up a lot of shots for Blake (and Westy and Devoe). 

5.  So are the Spartans beatable?  Actually yes, more beatable than I expected them to be when I started this preview.  Yes, they are ranked 7th and have a nice 13-3 record, but who have they beaten?  Looking at Ken Pomeroy's rankings they have only beaten two top 50 teams - Wisconsin at #5 and Gonzaga at #50 - the same amount of top 50 wins the Gophers have.  Two of Michigan State's losses are to Florida (#45) and North Carolina (#42) - both who rank worse than Texas A&M (#40).

It's interesting.  Despite having watched the Spartans dismantle a respectable Northwestern team, I have a weird feeling here.  If the Spartans have one weakness on the offensive end it's that they turn the ball over too much - which plays right into the Gopher defense's hands.  They also don't turn teams over much on the defensive end and I expect the Gophers to get many of the same looks they did against Purdue, except this time they almost have to fall.

In the end, the Spartans are probably way too good on the boards at both ends, have more talent, are extra tough at the Breslin Center, and Ralph probably isn't quite there yet where he can carry the team, so this one should be tough and down to the wire with Sparty pulling it out in the end.

But I've just got a weird feeling.

Minnesota 62, Michigan State 60.

Welcome to the National Map, Ralph.

Craptacular

Well, my emotions yesterday ranged from disappointed to wildly disappointed to anger to apathy to kind of sleepy and back to disappointed. Not because of the football game, because in all honesty I have no idea who won that game, but the god damn jerk hole basketball team. I think I've finally settled on optimistically disappointed, because although Michigan State is a better team, they still couldn've won that game but just weren't all the way there today.

Some things, of course, are out of the team's control. Kalin Lucas was completely ridiculous today, despite what, in general was pretty solid defense. Chris Allen was hotter than Tiffani-Amber Thiessen in that episode of 90210 where she wore that black lacy thing in the first half. The Spartans, seemingly like most Gopher opponents, were unconscious from the free throw line making 12 of 13. There was little doubt in my mind that MSU was both better and more athletic than Minnesota, and clearly the better team.

However, there are certain things that left me absolutely stunned and bewildered yesterday. The first among these was the complete and utter unwillingness and inability of the Gophers to get the F back on defense, whether after a miss or, even more unforgivably, after a made basket. The highlight dunk reel dunk you've seen on sportscenter that I've been too pissed off to notice who did it was a prime example. The game was still in the balance, and the Gophers had just scored. Whoever that was for the Spartans just ran up the court while three Gophers' backs were turned and put it down for the thunder dunk. And that's just the most emphatic example, because it happened over and over again, a fundamental mistake and an embarrassment on a Tubby Smith team.

Overall defense didn't seem to be much better. When the team was matched up, making the correct switches and fighting through screens when needed they played well, and overall held the Spartans to just 41% shooting, but the amount of breakdowns leading to easy baskets was an absolute killer. One guy switching and the other guy not, getting lost in screens, not helping at the right time or helping at the wrong time (such as Colton Iverson jumping out to double the horrible shooting Travis Walton's 18 foot jumper, leaving Suton open for the jump-pass to layup) all led to easy buckets for Michigan State. Another fundamental issue that just shocked me on a Tubby team.

Lastly, and no big surprise here, but the rebounding and specifically offensive rebounding was really a killer. A 41-22 edge to the Spartans, who also grabbed 16 offensive boards, is just too much to overcome. Some of it was to be expected, as The Daily Gopher says, this was a MSU strength against a Gopher weakness, but my god, how frustrating to watch. Particularly plays like when Hoffarber got Chris Allen to settle for a long jumper, then turned and watch it miss as Allen went right around him to grab his own miss for an easy put-back. Again, some of it is to be expected, the Gophers just don't have the personnel to keep guys like Morgan and Suton (5 o-boards apiece) off the glass all game, but effort plays like the one I described by Hoffarber seemed to abound all game, and that is what led to the disappointment in this team.

Last thing I want to say, because this is making me a bit sick, is that Tubby needs to find a shorter rotation. Far be it from me to criticize the black jesus, but playing 12 games like yesterday just seems excessive, and nobody can really get a rhythm. Busch has got to go. He can score when he's open, no doubt, but he gives anything he scores right back with horrible decisions, poor defense, and the inability to rebound with big ten caliber big guys. Shamala also doesn't bring much to the table, except against the right matchup. There is no reason to ever have Hoffarber and Shamala in the game at the same time, except against slow teams who are playing a zone - like Northwestern. Shamala is basically a poor man's Hoffarber, so when you need to get Hoff a rest, go with someone who gives you a different look like Paul Carter everytime, not just a watered down version of the same player. And some of the combinations Tubby came up with yesterday really give me pause. Where does he expect to find offense with Devoe, Hoff, Shamala, Busch, Bostick, and Williams? How are you going to rebound with Nolen, Westbrook, Shamala, Busch, and Carter? Just bizarre.

Three final points (I promise):

1. You might as well light my big ten predictions on fire. Already.

2. We got the Fargo-Moorhead Acro Team yesterday. Awesome as always, but I really hate it when dudes are on the team. If sexism is to be allowed anywhere, and it should probably be allowed everywhere, the FM Acro Team should be one of the first places on the list.

3. I am, quite seriously, going to kill the guy who sits next to us at Williams. Dude, no matter how loud or often you yell at the refs, it isn't going to change a thing. Also, please stop yelling at Al Nolen to "GO!" when there are still fourteen seconds left in the half. I think he knows what he's doing. The opposing teams also don't travel every time they get the ball, or commit a foul every time they get near a Gopher player. I could go on and on, but I get feel my rage starting to boil over and I don't want Mrs. W to accidentally run into that damn doorknob again, so I just need to stop.


Please, please, please beat Ohio State on Saturday. Otherwise I can't be held responsible for my actions

Gophers vs. Michigan State Preview

Aside from the fact that game is at 11am on a Wednesday, everything about this game excites me. The first ranked Gopher team in a very long time, undefeated, about to begin Big Ten play against Big Ten Giant and #10 team in the country Michigan State. This will go a long, long way towards telling fans what this year's Gopher squad is all about. Was the Louisville game a fluke? Did they catch an overrated Cardinals team at the wrong time? It's possible. The Gophers played a hell of a game, but it's tough to tell just what this Louisville team is all about. The players on the roster and the coach say they should be a giant, as does the blowout win against UAB Saturday, like the team that was ranked #9 when the Gophers played them. But that loss to Western Kentucky still lingers and shows the Cards can put up an unexplained stinker. I'm inclined to believe Louisville is a very good team, and the Gophers have come together quicker than anyone could have anticipated and belong on that level - Wednesday will tell us more.

The Spartans have a similar, yet more forgivable, blemish on their record with their loss at home to Maryland (although Maryland ranks 37th at KenPom, WKU 147th). I'm not paying much attention to their blowout loss to North Carolina, because how can you possibly evaluate anyone playing that juggernaut? That said, those two losses and no real big wins would have left me thinking Sparty was ripe for the picking, but a couple of weekends ago, the same day the Gophers beat Louisville, the Spartans grabbed a really nice victory, beating #5 Texas on the road 67-63.

The teams rank similarly, with the Spartans #42 and the Gophers #49, and are similar in a lot of ways. In terms of offensive efficiency, the Gophers rank 27th, the Spartans 28th. In defensive efficiency, the Gophers are 84th, the Spartans 69th. Neither team turns the ball over much, although the Gophers rank 2nd in blocked shot percentage on defense and 12th in steal percentage, and the Spartan offense is mediocre on both counts. The biggest statistical edge I could find either way is the Spartans' offensive rebounding prowess going against the Gophers weakness in allowing offensive rebounds. The Gophers are 268th in offensive rebounding allowed percentage, while the Spartans are 35th in grabbing offensive rebounds. Although the silver lining here is that an undersized Texas team held the Spartans to just 9 offensive boards in their game, the Gophers have more size than the Longhorns to bang with MSU.

This seems like as good a place as any to look at the Spartan personnel, and just like last year the main guy the Gophers need to worry about is Raymar Morgan, taking another big step forward this year and averaging a career high 15.3 points per game, including a 29 point outburst against Oklahoma State. Texas was able to completely neutralize him using quick players, and held him to just 8 points (on 3-3 shooting) and managed to turn him over 6 times. I'm confident DJ will be able to handle him.

The next four leaders in minutes played for the Spartans are all guards, which again plays into the Gophers strengths. Al Nolen will have his hands full with lightning quick Kalin Lucas, second on the team in scoring with 11 points per game and averaging an incredible 6.5 assists to 1.0 turnovers ratio; although I think Lucas will have his hands full with Nolen too. Travis Walton starts in the backcourt with Lucas, and he can handle the point duties as well. Don't expect a lot of turnovers from the Spartans, but the guards need to at least keep them out of a good rhythm.

The other two big scoring guards are two sophomores, 6-3 Chris Allen (10.2 ppg) and 6-4 Durrell Summers (9.4). These are the kind of guys who worry me, because I'm not sure who guards them. Westbrook can handle one or the other, probably Allen, but I'm worried if Summers gets a chance to dismantle Hoffarber he won't be shy about it. Could be an excellent opportunity for Paul Carter to shine here.

One wild card is 6-10 senior center Goran Suton, who has always been kind of ho-hum but since returning from an injury a few weeks ago has been on fire, scoring 18 and 16 in his last two games while shooting 7-8 and 7-9 in the two games. Based on the job the Gophers did against a far superior Samardo Samuels, I'm not too worried about him, but it's someone to keep an eye on.

Last thing to watch is with super freshmen Delvon Roe hurt and likely to miss the game, his minutes will flow over to perpetual disappointment Marquise Gray. Since coming to MSU after being the 21st ranked player on the Rivals 150 for 2004, Gray hasn't even come close to living up to his potential, never averaging more than 7 points per game. The thing is, that potential is still there, and he is shooting 70% this year in his 14 minutes per game. Although it's not overly likely, I can see Gray getting overlooked with all the other scorers to worry about and ending up with Travis Busch on him all game or something.

Overall, these two teams match up pretty well together. I think the biggest key to the game comes down to Al Nolen vs. Kalin Lucas. Both can distribute (#2 and #3 in assists in the Big Ten), neither turns it over (1.0 per game for Lucas, 1.5 for Nolen), both can play defense (Nolen first in steals, Lucas 14th), and both pretty much key their team on both ends. After watching Nolen the last couple of weeks, how could I possibly not believe? Gophers 66, Spartans 60.

I also plan to do some kind of Big Ten preview before the game tomorrow. It may end up being nothing more than a list, but you should be grateful I give you anything. There are kids in Africa without the internet who don't get to read DWG at all.

Top Big Ten Freshmen

It's probably a bit early, but I'm starting to feel the itch for the new college basketball season, and thought I'd kick it off by taking a look at the top Freshmen in the Big Ten this coming season:

1. Eric Gordon, SG, Indiana: The #1 ranked SG in the country by both Rivals and Scout, and Rivals has him as the #2 overall freshman. Would easily have been a lottery pick if High Schoolers were still eligible to come out, and likely would have gone top 5, possibly as high as #3. Is really an incredible, game-changing type player. Struggled with his shot a bit in the McDonald's All-American game, but you could see how good he's going to be. Wouldn't surprise me to see him end up all-conference next season.

2. Kosta Koufos, C, Ohio State: The Buckeyes lose Oden and the rest, but pick up a very intriguing player in this seven-footer with Greek Heritage. Koufos really impressed me at the McDonald's game as well as the shooting contests before it. A big man who can play down-low, but also has a very nice touch from outside, extending all the way to the three-point line. Ranked #16 overall by Rivals.

3. Durrell Summers, SF, Michigan State: Summers is a player who really shot up the rankings his junior summer, much like Rodney Williams is this year. An incredible athlete, he's a slasher who can get to the basket with ease and joins that with a nice jumper from the perimeter.

4. Kalin Lucas, PG, Michigan State: Yes, another Spartan. He should be able to step in and handle the point to take some of the pressure of Drew Neitzel. He can really push the pace of the game, and is an excellent creator. Needs some work on shooting and scoring, but will have the Spartans running and gunning.

5. E'Twaun Moore, SG, Pudure: I know, Purdue with a top five incoming freshman in the Big Ten? It's weird, but it's true - Moore is ranked as the #35 prospect by Rivals. Is already a terrific defender, and has improved his perimeter shot, which was weakness. Has a ton of potential, and could continue to get better.

HONORABLE MENTION: Chris Allen - Mich St, Corperryale Harris - Michigan, JaJuan Johnson - Purdue, Evan Turner - OSU, Jon Diebler, OSU, Demetri McCamey - Illinois, Robbie Hummell - Purdue, Scott Martin - Purdue, Jon Leuer - Wisconsin (Minnesota boy)