Week in Review - 4/19/2009

I was really hoping to be able to write up how Cory Joseph decided to sign with the Gophers on Saturday since he had said he'd make his decision after the Jordan Brand game, but apparently "after" didn't mean right after like it did for Josh Selby and Doron Lamb, but instead means "eventually."  The good news is that at least he didn't declare for somebody else yet, so the Gophers are still alive.  The latest rumor is that he's already made up his mind and it's been a three team race for quite some time, which probably means it was down to Minnesota, Texas, and Villanova.  I'm still guessing he ends up at Texas, but I'm keeping my fingers crossed.  The final date to sign is May 19th, so I guess we'll know by then.


WHO WAS AWESOME

1.  Francisco Liriano.  I'm not ready to go with the whole "he's back" thing or anything, but Thursday's outing against the Gay Sox was a very good sign.  Looking a bit deeper into the numbers, Liriano seems to be closer to the 2006 version of himself than last year's.  After the injury, he was too reliant on his fastball, throwing the pitch over 50% of the time (54% in 2008 and 56% in 2009) compared to 44% in 2006 despite having lost velocity (90.9mph average in 2008 and 91.7 in 2009 compared to 94.7 in 2006).  The good news is he's very close to recapturing his 2006 numbers so far this season.  He has thrown his fastball just 46% of the time and the velocity is back up at 93.6mph on average).  He's also throwing more strikes, with 64% of his pitches going for strikes compared to just 60% last year (and he was at 66% in 2006).  He's also working the change up more often, throwing it 24% of the time, a career high by 4% thus far.  Like I said, I'm not saying he's back, but to be able to thrown 7 shutout innings with 8 Ks and to do it throwing just 96 pitches is huge for Liriano.  Backing it up with the numbers above is a good sign.  Now, his overall K/9 are down, his BB/9 is up, and his BABIP is a fluky low .238 right now so I'm not jumping into the bandwagon with both feet just yet, but things are heading in the right direction.

2.  Chase Utley.  Hey guy.  Small white second-basemen aren't supposed to rake like this, just ask Steve Lombardozzi or Wally Backman.  But instead, Utley just does his own thing and continually hits the ball out of the park, something he did five times this week in six games, including four in his three games against the Nationals.  This guy is just an absolute stud.  If you look at his last five years, and take the worst year he had in each statistic and combined them, he still ends up at .282-22-93.  Those are his worst numbers, and don't forget we''re talking about a second basemen, something that of course means nothing to Dawger who probably thinks Utley is no better than Michael Cuddyer.  That is if Dawger has even heard of Utley.  That guy's knowledge of national league players is on par with my cat.  Oh, and I looked up Utley's height and he's actually 6-1 so he's not really all that small, just seems like it because he's so white.  

3.  Matt Garza.  Two weeks into the season, and two weeks that Garza has made this list.  On Sunday all he did was shut down the Red Sox, giving up no runs and just four hits in 8 innings of work, and that followed up his outing on Monday, where he shut down the Orioles giving up just one run and six hits in 8 more spectacular innings.  That runs his season totals now to 3-0 with a 0.75 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP, and he's struck out more batters than he's allowed hits.  Sigh.  At least Delmon is starting to hit the ball - the numbers might not show it but he's raking the ball, just not getting hits out of it - but I think this trade goes down as a suck no matter what.  Ignoring the peripheral players and just look at the main pieces, Delmon would basically have to end up hitting like Albert Pujols or A-Rod to make this into a fair deal.  Seriously Garza has become a top shelf stud.  He has a fastball that reaches the mid-90s and has a foot of tail, a mid-80s slider that breaks two feet, a killer slow curve and has finally developed that change-up that caused all the drama back in the day.  Plus he has a cute little beard.  Sigh.

4.  Livan Hernandez.  I'm trying to think of things that are less likely than Livan throwing a complete game shutout, which he did on Saturday against the Brewers.  So far all I've come up with is a threesome with Brad Pitt, Rosie O'Donnell, and Roseanne, Al Nolen leading the conference in three point percentage, Colt Iverson hitting a shot from further than 8 feet out, and Snacks becoming a big fan of Mike Cuddyer.  There are a whole lot Brewers who need to be embarrassed.  Not Rickie Weeks though.  That guy is the shit.

5.  Ubaldo Jimenez.  The funny thing about Jimenez tossing a no-hitter on Saturday against the Braves is that my co-worker, Elk, was just telling me about how he was coming around and looking really good this year.  Since Elk has him on his fantasy team, I was pretty sure he was just talking up his own player, like how Gardy tries to keep telling us all that Matt Tolbert is awesome.  Turns out, the guy can sling the pill.  I caught the last inning of the game, and Ubaldo was still hitting 98 on the gun in the 9th.  That's pretty impressive.  So maybe this guy is pretty good.  If only a regular reader and commenter on this blog was a Rockies' season ticket holder, maybe we could get some real insight.  Oh, and you better hope Huston Street comes back quick, because Morales is freakin' terrible.  You can't trust a left-handed closer, everybody knows that.  

(what the holy hell is the point of this stupid thing?)


WHO SUCKED

1.  Jose Mijares.  If there is a dark lining to this silver cloud of a Twins season thus far, it was been the struggles of Jose Mijares to get anybody out, now culminating in a trip to the DL in what I suspect is as much of a "figure this thing out" kind of move as it is an injury move.  Mijares has thrown a total of 3 innings over five appearances, and is allowing nearly three base-runners per inning (6 hits, 2 walks) and currently sports a 6.00 ERA and has struck out just two batters so far this year - not exactly the kind of numbers you want to see from an eighth inning guy.  I don't know if it means anything, but his fastball is down about 1.5 mph compared to last year and he's throwing his changeup about twice as often this year as he used to.  Has he lost something off his fastball and subsequently lost faith in it?  I don't know, but I do hope whatever is going on this little DL trip can fix it, because as much as I like Duensing him and Mahay as the lefties out of the bullpen doesn't fill me with confidence.

2. Jason Marquis.  Hey, remember when the Nationals signed Marquis to a 2-year/$15 million deal this offseason coming off a 15-win season for the Rockies?  And remember how Rockies' fans were like, "take him" and everyone else was kind of like, "whoa, really?  $15 million for Marquis?"  Well, his living up to that this week.  In his two starts this week he managed just 4 and 1/3 innings, allowing thirteen base-runners - every single one of which scored.  Yes, that's 13 earned runs in 4 and 1/3 innings.  His season numbers right now are and 0-3 record with a 20.52 ERA and a 2.88 WHIP.  Yes, and ERA over 20.  He's certainly earning that $7.5 million this year.  My favorite part was when he pitched against the Brewers on Saturday and it went single-single-single-hit by pitch-walk-hit by pitch-single-Marquis yanked.  Quality outing.

3.  Jason Frasor.  You wanted him to be a Twin, which once again proves you don't know what the holy hell you're talking about. You're also probably really impressed that he has three saves, paying little attention to the fact that he's blown two also and is currently rocking a 5.68 ERA, which is already improved from the 6+ number he was carrying at the beginning of the week.  At least the Blue Jays are paying attention, and they've yanked the closer role away from Frasor and given it to the decidedly average Kevin Gregg.  What this all means is that the guy you wanted to the Twins to trade precious prospects for to close games for them was beaten out for the role on a crappy Blue Jay team by a guy who put up an ERA north of 4.70 the last time he was closing games.  Good call, genius.

4.  Cincinnati Reds.  The Reds were so awesome this week they were actually swept by the Pirates, in what was the first Pirate sweep since 1987, or so I assume without looking anything up.  And it wasn't just during that series that the Reds sucked, they've been pretty rough so far this year and sit at 5-8.  Out of their players who qualify for the batting title, Joey Votto is the only one hitting over .250 - Jay Bruce and Drew Stubbs are hitting under .200.  And it's not just the hitters.  Aaron Harang looks to have fallen off the cliff, Johnny Cueto isn't developing, and speaking of not developing Homer Bailey is starting to look like the type of prospect who has all the tools on paper but can't ever pull it together - like David West but with more talent.  They have yet another new little youngster arm in Mike Leake who has looked really good so far, but if the rest of the youngins' don't start playing and stay just "potentially good", it's going to be yet another losing season in Cincy. 

5.  Chef Boyardee.  Can someone please tell me why the Chef Boyardee spaghetti and meatballs has a different sauce than every other Chef Boyardee?  The Ravioli is top notch, and the peripheral spinoffs like Beef-a-roni and Lasagna are basically the same thing, but then you get to the spaghetti and meatballs and it's like WTF, Mr. B?  We shove this at Wonderbaby^TM every so often and she likes most of it (as do I, if we're being honest here - try the mini raviolis, top notch) but we tried the spaghetti the other day and it seriously made her angry, like an old man sending back soup at a deli.  So I tried it, and it was like eating evil.  Why would you use the exact same, deliciously sodium-filled sauce on the majority of your project and then detour into some sort of unholy combination of what I can only assume is fire and brimstone on what should probably be your flagship pasta variation?  For shame.  And did you know there isn't even an actual Chef Boyardee?  So nobody actually has to answer for this abomination.  Except for the sham executives.  You know who you are.  Between this and all the dead hookers, I bet you can't even sleep at night.

Let's Talk Closers

I wasn't planning on writing anything since I'm still so damn tired from that damn Chicago trip, but I happened to be in the car and flipped on the radio and listened to a little Twins Spring Training game.  Even though we're in the heart of the NCAA Tournament, and the two rounds where the best basketball is usually played, it still made my heart skip a beat for summer and some hardball.  Of course, I also had to hear Gordy and Gladden talk about how Jesse Crain would be a great closer if he could just throw strike one, and I don't exactly miss that, but you take the good with the bad.

And even though I know the Twins aren't going to make a move, and even though I know they are going try to go with a closer-by-committee, and even though I know it's not going to work and they're going to wait too long to try and fix it, I'm going to look at the outside possibilities anyway.  Mainly to educate myself on how many options are out there that are going to be ignored.

So here are 10 possible closers we might find wearing a Twins' jersey and working as a closer at some point this year, in the order I found information on them:

1.  John Smoltz.  I bring him up because a reader mentioned him in the comments, but the only thing I find attractive about him is that he's a free agent and wouldn't cost anything outside of the contract to acquire.  At 43 with rapidly dropping velocity and a rapidly rising flyball rate, it's tough to figure out what would be attractive here.  He just took a job with TBS, but his contract has provisions in it where he can leave to play ball if he gets a contract offer.  How badly would that move reek of desperation?  And how much does it sound like something that is going to happen around July?

2.  Kerry Wood.  In the last year of his contract (unless he finishes 55 games this year), Wood is a natural to come up in every closer-related trade rumor.  Of course, Wood is hurt again, this time with a strained back muscle, and with $10.5 million coming his way this year there's no way the Twins would make a move for him now, and nor should they.  If he comes back strong and nobody has stepped up by mid-summer, I can see this one happening, division foe or not.

3.  Mike MacDougal.  I'm not sure about this one, especially because he just got released by the freaking Marlins, but MacDougal did have 20 saves last season for the Nationals and has notched 20+ in two other seasons in his career.  He throws hard and gets a lot of groundballs, so he's an intriguing possibility, but he walks as many as he strikes out these days.  I'd be much more interested in him if he had become available prior to Spring Training, but if he's willing to sign for cheap I'd endorse this move.

4.  Heath Bell.  I've mentioned him here before, and he's probably the best possible option, but the Padres are apparently asking for Glen Perkins and two "good" prospects.  I've said it before, if by "good" they mean guys like Ben Revere, they can screw off, but if they mean guys more like Trevor Plouffe, I'd consider myself intrigued.  This team is in position to win this year, and a move like this takes that up another notch, not to mention showing a nice shift in team philosophy.  

5.  Derrick Turnbow.  Remember this guy?  He notched 39 saves for the Brewers in 2005 with a sub-2.00 ERA and looked poised to be a star, but fell off a cliff since then.  In the next three seasons he's posted a total ERA north of six and has started walking nearly as many batters as he strikes out, and hasn't pitched in the majors since 2008.  He was just released by the Marlins, who apparently stockpiled crappy relievers this Spring, and it actually sounds like he's retiring due to a shoulder injury, but I'm including him here mostly because I already typed all that stuff above before I read the part about the injury.

6.  Jason Frasor.  The other hot name behind Bell, and I'm not entirely certain why he's such a hot commodity.  He saved just 11 out of 14 opportunities, and last year was the first time he posted an ERA under 4 in the last four seasons and the first time he ever put up a WHIP under 1.2.  He's cheaper than Bell, would cost less in prospects, so I see the interest, but I'm not sure he's necessarily any better than Rauch, Neshek, or any of the other clowns the Twins have.  That said, if they can get him in a straight swap for Glen Perkins I would enthusiastically endorse it.

7.  Matt Capps.  I know the Twins had their shot to sign him this off-season if they really wanted him, and they wisely laid off, but time's have changed with Nathan's elbow issues.  I can't imagine the Nationals really need a $4.5 million closer this year when they're going to struggle to win 65-games, and with just a one-year deal it's hard to imagine them not looking to deal him around mid-season.  I fear he's really more of a middle reliever type who's been forced into a closer role, and he regressed big-time last year, so I can't imagine the Twins making this move unless he either provs himself to be back to being good or they get really desperate. 

8.  Francisco Cordero.  He's a pretty big long shot, considering he will make $12 million each of the next two years, but I'm starting to have to stretch to get to 10 and what do the Reds need with a $12 million closer?  Actually they have a pretty good young roster, but if it seems they aren't quite ready I can see the Reds moving guys like Cordero, Aaron Harang, and Bronson Arroyo - they could always try to convert Jose Arredondo into a closer.  I doubt the Twins get involved here, but it's always possible, particularly if anything further goes wrong with Nathan.

9.  Octavio Dotel.   He seems to be about 100 years old, but he keeps plugging along, putting up decent numbers.  He's now on the Pirates, making $3.5 million this year, and they have a club option for next year for $4.5 (although the option becomes team/player mutual if he's traded).  The Pirates have started to show that their front office gets it, and there's really no need for them to bother keeping him - not to mention having that trade clause in there shows they've had that in mind since they signed him.  Actually, other than Bell, Frasor, or (god help me) Smotlz, he's probably the most likely to end up a Twin.

10.  Eddie Guardado.  He's almost certainly going to retire, and there is really no point in bothering to bring him in since him getting people out is basically little more than a rumor at this point, but tell me this, as a Twins' fan, that this doesn't sound like something they'd do.

Of course, I could be wrong about all this too.  ESPN's Eric Karabell believes Jon Rauch could be the next closing star - or at least the next David Aardsma, and really if you look at the ten guys I listed above it's mostly garbage.

I don't know.  I'd still feel a lot better if they got Bell, or are at least prepared to pull the trigger on Wood if he shows he's recovered.  All I really know is that this sucks, because the Twins did basically everything I wanted them to do, and now we have to worry about this.  Arg.  At the very least, tell me they're going to pick somebody, hopefully Rauch, and just go with him.  I have less than zero interest in dealing with watching some kind of closer-by-committee garbage all year.  I prefer to focus my rage on one player at a time.


Sweet 16 predictions coming Wednesday night, so if you are still waiting on my picks to make your wagers, just sit tight.