Thoughts before Canada

I leave for the big Canada trip Thursday morning with Bogart, Dawger, and Bear so I won't get a chance to talk at you for quite a while.  I'll leave a few parting thoughts here and then hopefully TRE can put up a couple of posts while I'm gone.

-  At one point it seemed like the Gophers had a strong shot at landing Memphis transfer Tarik Black, but once again when the big boys come calling the Gophers have little shot as Black has decided to enroll at Kansas, who also just signed the #1 player in the class of 2013 in Andrew Wiggins, called the best pro prospect since LeBron, and have gone from lots of question marks to a pretty loaded squad.  There are still a handful of interesting big man options out there (Juco and/or transfers) with the most likely to become a Gopher still Rakeem Buckles (no clue what exactly the hold up on this one seems to be) and man somebody better be coming.  Not that anybody is a difference maker at this point, but of the four big guys (yes, only four) the only one you can relatively sure you can rely on is Eliason.  I personally think Oto will have a big year and a definite Buggs fan, but so many question marks.  Might as well make the lane at Williams look like the Riddler's suit at this point.

-  Sometimes I'm wrong about things.  Not often, but sometimes.  Roy Hibbert is one of those times.  You know how completely worthless Hasheem Thabeet has been, even getting bounced down to the D-League?  I figured Hibbert would be right there with him. I should have known better with him coming out of Georgetown who, outside of Ruben Boumtje-Boumtje, never miss on centers, but I thought he was doomed to failure.  This year he nearly averaged a double-double while finishing fourth in blocked shots (also Tim Duncan finished third.  Guy's immortal.  Immortally boring, but immortal).  So Roy, and Georgetown, I'm sorry for doubting.  And now that I've apologized and admitted my error, it's clear I am the better man here.

-  Sam Deduno is back.  Again.  After an outstanding World Baseball Classic (3 starts, 0.69 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 17 K vs. 5 BB, team won the whole thing) some Deduno related buzz was generated that maybe he had figured things out.  Unfortunately fans would have to wait as Deduno didn't make his minor league debut until early May thanks to an injury suffered at the WBC.  So who is Deduno this year?  The 28 year old rookie of last year with the 57/55 K-to-Walk ratio?  Or the WBC hero?

It's really tough to tell so far with just 3 minor league starts under his belt.  Deduno has made the K/BB ratio a bit more manageable at 17/10 with his last start the best going 6 innings and striking out 8 while walking just two.  Of course, he also gave four earned runs in that one compared to just one earned in his prior to starts which encompassed eleven innings, when, of course, he struck out 9 while walking 8.  He's almost impossible to figure out.  I think it boils down to a guy who has decent stuff but little command.  He'll have games where he'll shut teams down like he did last year, and he'll have games where he doesn't get out of the third inning like he did last year.  Is he worth more of a shot than P.J. Walters or Cole DeVries in this spot?  I don't know, but the correct answer is Kyle Gibson, who, in case you missed it, has thrown complete game shutouts with 8 Ks and 2 walks in two of his last three outings for the Rochester Red Wings.  He's coming.  I don't know when the arbitration clock kicks on or kicks off or whatever it is, but he better be up the day after it happens.

-  Lastly, for those knocking the Pitino hire because he's only had one year of head coaching experience and is now in a major conference:

• Billy Donovan:  previous head coaching experience before Florida - 2 years at Marshall
• Jim Boeheim: previous head coaching experience before Syracuse - NONE
• Roy Williams: previous head coaching experience before Kansas - NONE
• Tom Izzo: previous head coaching experience before Michigan State - NONE
• Brad Stevens: previous head coaching experience before Butler - NONE

That's a pretty good list.  People are morons.

-  And with that, I'm out for a while.  Wish me luck - mostly that I catch a lot of big fish, but also that I don't die in the wilderness.

Next Year's Twins' rotation = yucky

With another failed Twins' season nearly, mercifully, behind us it's time to look at next season and speculate on how the Twins' will suck next year.  Actually it's pretty obvious, and it's once again starting pitching.  A remarkable twelve pitchers made starts for the Twins this season, and with Pavano hopefully gone via free agency, Nick Blackburn and Jason Marquis thankfully let go, and Francisco Liriano traded it's mostly a murky future.  Scott Diamond is the only Twin right now who is assured a place in the starting rotation next year, so I figured why not look at this other dorks and try to speculate on next season's horrid rotation?
I'm going to leave aside a few candidates, like Scott Baker (who, if he resigns here is certainly going to be the #1 guy), Anthony Swarzak (only made a handful of starts and is pretty clearly a bullpen arm at this point), the guys who pitched this year out of the pen but have some starting experience in their past (Jeff Manship, etc.), the minor league guys (Kyle Gibson, etc.), free agents (Derek Lowe, who is practically destined to become a Twin, etc.) and the guy I've never even heard of (Esmerling Valdez) and instead concentrate on the five guys who have already been given an extended audition this season (Sam Deduno, P.J. Walters, Cole Devries, Liam Hendriks, and Brian Duensing).  A quick primer on some stats I'll be referencing:

ERA - duh
WHIP - also duh
FIP - Fielding Independent Pitching.  Stat which measures a pitcher's effectiveness based on the things he can control (strikeouts, walks, home runs).  Think of it as what a pitcher's ERA should be if all things (fielding, luck, ballpark) were equal across the league.
xFIP - Expected Fielding Independent Pitching - Same thing, but if you assume home runs are out of the pitcher's control and looks at it as if all pitchers allowed the same number of home runs per fly ball hit off them.
BABIP - Batting Average on Balls in Play.  Exactly what it sounds like.  An attempt to quantify a pitcher's bad luck.  League average is around .300, so anything substantially higher or lower than that is usually an indicator of some good or bad luck for the pitcher.
xBABIP - Expected BABIP.  Based off of line drives, ground balls, fly balls, and pop-ups allowed.  Used to compare to BABIP because let's face it, a high BABIP could be because of bad luck or it could be because the pitcher is just throwing meat balls and getting laced all over the yard (*cough* Nick Blackburn *cough).  If xBABIP and BABIP differ significantly it's a better indicator of luck than straight BABIP.

Got it, nerds?  And we're off (stats as of 9/12 when I started this post).

BRIAN DUENSING (5.03 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 4.05 FIP, 4.51 xFIP, .319 BABIP, xBABIP .315)
Duensing's the guy we're most familiar with given that he's appeared in (158) and started (61) more games than the other guys on this list combined (note: I didn't actually add this up, I'm assuming), and what you see is what you get:  a soft-tossing lefty who supplements that by not being particularly crafty.  He's been an effective reliever in his career (ERA 3.19) and pretty bad as a starter (ERA 4.57).  This, in large part, is due to his complete ineptitude against right-handed batters.  He has actually been very good against lefties in his career, and would be most effectively used as a late inning lefty-specialist guy and that's where he belongs.  If Duensing is in the rotation for any significant length of time in 2013 the season is probably already a failure.

SAMUEL DEDUNO (3.55 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 5.06 FIP, 4.65 xFIP, .257 BABIP, xBABIP .326)
An interesting case since he's a 28-year old rookie who never really flashed any significant potential until putting up a 2.14 ERA in 9 starts at Rochester this year, Deduno has shown some signs of brilliance but balanced it out by getting destroyed at times as well.  I like the kid because he actually has shown some ability to strike people out, as evidenced by his putting up better than a K and inning in four different minor league stints throughout his career and in his six prior career major league appearances (all in relief).  Of course, he balances that out by not being able to consistently throw strikes with a ridiculous 5.5 BB/9 and the fewest percentage of thrown strikes of any Twin still in the rotation (with the exception of this Esmerling guy) - although he also generates the most swings and misses.  And it's not as if his control issues are anything new, he's struggled with them throughout his minor league career.  Still, he shows some promise and if he can get the walks at least a little bit under or control (or get his K rate back up to his minor league numbers) he could end up being a passable #4 starter.  Cautiously optimistic, but he has gotten significantly lucky on balls hit this year, so he has some serious potential to put up a +6 ERA.

P.J. WALTERS (6.05 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 5.98 FIP, 4.62 xFIP, .302 BABIP, xBABIP .352)
Plenty of warning flags with Walters, starting with the fact that he's a 27-year old on his third team who has only once posted a sub-4.00 ERA above A ball in at least 7 starts.   That's a really oddly written sentence but the point is he was traded after 5 years in the minors with the Cardinals and then the Blue Jays just plain old let him go before the Twins grabbed him off the trash heap and none of that speaks well for his future.  He doesn't strike anybody out and walks too many guys to balance that out, and his best seasons in the minors were in A ball when he was pitching out of the pen.  In retrospect, maybe the most amazing feat of the season was when he pitched that complete game 5-hitter against the White Sox all the way back in May in his third start making everyone think "Hey, maybe we have something here."  Sadly, we do not.  That was Walters season high in innings (9) and strikeouts (8), and only once would he allow fewer than five hits again and that was the game where he didn't get out of the first against Philly.  If you can't tell,  I am not a fan of him or his stupid name.

COLE DEVRIES (4.11 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 4.90 FIP, 4.73 xFIP, .262 BABIP, xBABIP .330)
Devries has been fortunate to find a lot of the same good luck Deduno has (which is sad really considering both of their mediocre numbers), but a lot of nerd stats also say he's been the best starter other than Diamond (which is also kind of sad).  I put Devries a step above Walters because he's at least actually shown some flashes of ability here and there and his K/BB ratio is a bit more palatable.  Of course he doesn't actually strike many people out, but he doesn't walk many either which, combined with being from Minnesota, means the Twins are going to give him more chances than Blackburn to win a spot in the rotation.  He's a soft-tosser for sure, but he does at least have four pitches, and one (slider) actually rates as statistically quite good (second best pitch of all the starters listed here on the team behind Deduno's slider which I'm pretty sure is actually a curve).  His fastball is so-so and his curve and change get ripped pretty good, but it's his first season in the big league's so let's see.  He also misses more bats than anybody other than Deduno, so that's promising.  I'm not particularly encouraged that it took him to 27 to actually reach the majors, but I guess out of this group he's actually one of the better options.  Yuck.

LIAM HENDRIKS (6.20 ERA, 1.69 WHIP, 5.49 FIP, 4.70 xFIP, .344 BABIP, xBABIP .354)
Hendriks' traditional numbers look far worse than the other guys, but he hasn't had the good luck Deduno, Walters, and Devries have and his advanced metrics put him right in line with everybody else here.  That being said, I don't really hold out much hope for Hendriks unless he can figure out a breaking pitch.  His fastball and change are right around league average, but both his curve and slider get absolutely pounded to the point where are those are the two of the three worst pitches on the team (along with Duensing's fastball).  However, unlike guys like Devries and Walters, Hendriks is only 23 and as such is likely not a finished product.  Where the older guys are likely locked in to "what you see is what you get" mode, Hendriks still has time to develop one of those breaking pitches (or something else).  The complete game 3-hitter he tossed against Seattle flashed some of his potential and his minor league numbers have been outstanding (2.65 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 5 seasons) so with Hendriks patience is probably the key.  Hopefully he wins a spot in the rotation coming out of training camp next year which would be a clear sign he's continuing to improve.  If he starts the season at AAA next year it's probably a sign we can give up on him as a starter.  Although with the Twins' management in charge, maybe we actually can't get any useful info out of that.

So, to sum up:

Duensing:  left-handed bullpen option
Deduno:  could be a back of the rotation starter if he gets his walks under control
Walters:  totally sucks
Devries:  back of the rotation starter
Hendriks:  most potential of the group, could develop into a middle of the rotation guy

Man.  It's very possible the Twins' break camp with this rotation:  Diamond, Devries, Deduno, Hendriks, and Walters.  How many games would that team win in a season?  40?  50?  I have no idea how they managed to paint themselves into this corner.

Help us, Kyle Gibson.  You're our only hope.

I'm Back Now

What's up, nerds?  I've been in Denver this past week to visit Snacks, Mrs. Snacks, and new Baby Snacks and as such kept getting too drunk to post at night.  But now I'm back.  First, a few things about Denver:

1.  We went to a Rockies' game at Coors Field and I was impressed.  Very nice stadium, especially considering how old it is (relatively).  It reminded me quite a bit of the newer stadiums I've been too, including Target Field, but considering the Rockies' came into existence in 1993 and it went up a few years later, I was impressed.  Even more impressive was the security.  We had two tickets in their club level and two normal poor people tickets, so the plan was for me and the Mrs. to go into the club, then I'd go out with both tickets and get Snacks, then Mrs. W would go out and get Mrs. Snacks and everybody wins except for the Rockies.  The same scam Dawger used to get us into the Legends' Club at Target Field that worked flawlessly.  One problem - at Coors they're on the lookout for it.

When you go into the Club area they stamp the back of your ticket, and when you leave they stamp your hand.  Then when you try to get back in you can either show your stamp or you need an unstamped ticket.  If you have a stamped ticket but no stamp on your hand they won't let you back in.  Actually, Snacks managed to sweet talk his way in, but Mrs. Snacks was unable too.  So we all just went and sat somewhere else because nobody was there anyway because the Rockies totally blow.  Also Cuddyer didn't play that night which sucked because I wanted to be able to say I've booed him at two different parks for two different teams.  Ah well.

The other problem with Coors, besides the fun-hating, is that if you want to get a Rockies' shirt with one of their guy's names on the back you have almost zero options.  The only guys they had were Carlos Gonzalez, Tulowitzki, the manager, the mascot, or Giambi who I'm not even sure is on the team anymore.  I realize they're pretty faceless as a team and all, but when you can get an Alexei Casilla shirt at Target Field you'd think the Rocks would be a little more generous with the choices.

2.  Denver is right up there with Portland when it comes to homeless people, to the point where we could play the classic game, "Hippie or homeless" that we invented last time we were in Portland.  I'd give Denver the edge with the homeless dudes, but Portland wins for most hippies.  In both cities they're littered around the place to the point where you have to be careful you don't trip over anybody who is either passed our or sleeping on the ground.  Common denominators?  Horrid college basketball programs and a massive love of weed.  Drugs ruin lives, kids.  You'll either end up drunk under a bridge with a sign begging for money and claiming you're a veteran of some war or sleeping on the sidewalk with those weird holes in your ears wearing a knitted poncho and carrying around a skateboard.  Choose wisely.

3.   Denver was seemingly constructed by someone playing Sim City, and not just anyone but a child with severe ADD.  You can drive down a street and have some really nice bars next to some scary bars where you'd get murdered if you looked at them for too long.  Pretty much the same thing with houses - mansions next to houses that might actually currently be on fire.  Nothing makes sense.  A "long-term stay" business hotel a block from a Walgreen's in a neighborhood so bad the hotel clerk tells you "I wouldn't walk there."  A knock-off of Grand Avenue, but without any bars.  It was just weird and never made sense.  The only area I saw that made sense was the "Bail Bonds District", which was an intersection with seven different bail bonds places (no joke, seven.)  Normally you might feel a bit uneasy in that kind of neighborhood, but never fear because less than a block down was a restaurant that served things like duck liver mousse and escargot.  Bizarre.  Decent town, I had a lot of fun, but really kind of just ok. 

And that's that. Now for a couple real quick sports things because man am I tired:

1.  I kind of understand why the Nationals are planning on shutting Strasburg down when he hits 180 innings.  I completely disagree with it, however.   You're taking a positive (having Strasburg all year and for the playoffs) and eliminating it based on the fear of a negative (future arm issues for Strasburg).   I'm not 100% sure but I'm fairly certain there is no correlation between Tommy John surgery and future injuries, and Strasburg's surgery was basically two full years ago at this point, and it's generally said it takes 1 year to get back to normal.  His velocity is pretty close to what it was pre-surgery (pre = 97.3, current = 95.8) and although he's throwing his curve less it's been more effective - so yes, he's pretty much the same pitcher.  Smarter people and better writers than me (which is pretty much everybody) have tackled this already so I won't dwell on it, but it seems to me he's just as likely to get injured in his first Spring Training start next year, a random start in Mid-July next season, or at some point this year.  This is the opposite of taking a gamble - it's playing it safe to the extreme.  It's like having a 3-to-1 chip lead in a poker tournament and offering a 50/50 chop.  It's like getting 11 against a 6 in blackjack and not doubling down.  Horrid.

And if you're dead set on limiting him to 180 innings, why not skip a start earlier in the season here and there?  If you'd skipped a random start here or there vs. the Padres or Rockies or other shitty team he might still have 60-70 innings left instead of 40.  Or use him out of the bullpen.  Or do something.  By any metric you look at he and Gio Gonzalez have been the two most valuable players for the Nats this year, and Gio's probably been a little bit lucky while Stras is Stras.  I just don't get it.  How many shots do you really get at the playoffs?  Even if the future looks bright there's a billion things that could go wrong and this could be Washington's one and only shot.  And they're going to go into it without their best weapon.  Sad.  I almost hope Strasburg gets hurt early next year, but then I wouldn't get to watch him so I really don't.  Just almost.

-  I don't really want to talk Twins, so I won't much, but even if the lineup looks pretty much set already for next year (barring a trade of Morneau or Span) I'm very curious to see how the rotation turns out.  I mean, from 2-9 you have Mauer, Morneau, Carroll, Plouffe, Dozier, Willingham, Span, and Revere with Doumit your likely DH (along with M&M).  For better of for worse, that's probably what we're seeing next season.  They may sign a cheap free agent to help the middle infield like Jeff Keppinger (I would approve of this) or Maicer Izturis (I would not) or maybe some hitting type depth like Ty Wigginton (pass) or Ryan Spilborghs (omg gross) but basically that's your lineup.  The pitching though?

Lots of candidates.  Scott Baker will get a hell of a lot less interest as a free agent than he would have if he had, you know, pitched this year.  I can't see the Twins picking up his option at $9 million, but I can see them trying to resign him on the cheap so he could be back.  Pavano will hopefully not be around unless they can get him for super cheap, which again, may be possible since he's been injured nearly all year.  Nick Blackburn sucks donkey balls, but seeing as the Twins' are on the hook for $5.5m next year he's going to get every opportunity to be in the rotation.  Then you've got the young guys:  Scott Diamond (best pitcher on the team this and should be in the rotation next year for sure), Sam Deduno (his numbers mask how shitty he's actually been, but there is some potential here), P.J. Walters (remember when he had those couple good starts?), Cole DeVries (perfectly fits the teams no-walks no-Ks mandate), and Liam Hendriks (please god no).  Not to mention guys who have mainly been in the bullpen with starting experience in their past (Swarzak, Manship, Waldrop) and hopeful prospects (Gibson), guys picked up in trades (Pedro Hernandez), retreads (Luke French who the Twins apparently have), and guys I've never heard of (everyone at New Britain right now).

Let's be clear - it's a platter full of crap no doubt, but other than Scott Diamond nobody is guaranteed to be in the rotation next year.  You have four other spots and 13 possibilities (Baker, Pavano, Blackburn, Deduno, Walters, DeVries, Hendriks, Swarzak, Manship, Waldrop, Gibson, Hernandez, and French) not to mention a bunch of question marks at AA and the possibility the Twins sign a shitty free agent as per usual (Derek Lowe?  Joe Saunders? - both fit their shitty philosophy perfectly).  Free Agent wise your best (realistic) scenario is they find a way to sign Brandon McCarthy to a team friendly contract.  Worst case they sign one of the above dudes.  Actually worst case is they sign Dice-K, but I can't imagine even this team is that misguided.  It's a mess, but at least it's an interesting mess.  Or that's what I'm telling myself.  You have to be able to get a couple good pitchers out of 13 candidates, right?  Please?

- Lastly, can somebody help me out with the Luck vs. Robert Griffin III debate?  Luck started for three very productive years setting the single season and all-time records in the Pac-10 for completion percentage winning a dickload of awards (including two Hesiman runner-ups) and basically setting every Stanford record ever for a QB.  He also did it while running a pro-style offense under the tutelage of a former NFL QB, already known as a cerebral player, who then came in and made Alex Smith suddenly understand how to be an NFL QB, and did it while (in his senior season at least) basically calling all his own plays at the line like a second Peyton Manning.

Griffin won Big 12 freshman of the year in 2008 before missing 2009 with an injury, then had two awesome years culminating in a Heisman winning season in 2011 running the same offense under the same coach NFL superstars Case Keenum and Kevin Kolb ran in putting up insane numbers in college.  I get why Griffin is so tempting, particularly after Cam Newton's early season success, but if Newton doesn't get out to that hot start is Griffin even considered a rival to Luck at #1?  Everyone seems to point to his athleticism and runnability as to why he's so fascinating as a franchise player and granted his 4.41 forty-yard dash is a record for QBs and the 39 inch vertical is impressive, but he's not that far ahead of Luck, who ran a 4.67, had a 36 inch vertical, and actually beat RG3 in the broadjump at 10-4 vs. 10-0.  Actually Luck's measurables were very similar to Newtons (4.67 vs. 4.59, 36 inch vert vs. 35, and 10-4 vs. 10-6) and Luck's said to be a far better passer and the kind of guy who already understands the game at a veteran type level.

I'm not saying Griffin will be a bust, I'm just saying anyone comparing him to Luck is delusional at best.  And no I'm not just saying this as a fantasy smokescreen.  I'm taking Luck, assuming he's there for me.