Game Preview: Gophers vs. Northwestern

Meh, we move on.  I'm not surprised the Gophers lost at Nebraska, but I am a little disappointed that the team seemed to be sleep walking for much of the game.  That's not something I though would happen at all this year, but they definitely came out a bit flat.  They also went away from the game plan of trying to pound the ball inside despite Mo Walker playing well again, but I suppose that can happen when your point guard turns the ball over 9 times.  I mean, that's how many times Ferris Bueller was absent in his final high school semester - it's a lot.  The main problem, however, was once again defense, with Terran Petteway and Walter Pitchfork just shredding the Gophers.  Disappointing, but not terribly damaging to post season aspirations.  I'm mostly bummed that amazing performance by Malik Smith (called by me, see Twitter) was wasted.  I said he'd probably win a game single-handedly for the Gophers this year, and that might have been supposed to be it.  Shame.

Next up is Northwestern, and luckily it's at home so I both feel good about the Gophers' chances and also we don't have to look at that hideous purple crayon court.  Not all that long ago this would have been the kind of game where you break out the snuggly and get some hot cocoa, because Northwestern was a complete dumpster fire.  Home losses to Illinois State and DePaul, non-competitive games against good teams, their best win of the season was either over Brown (NERDS!) or Western Michigan, and an offense that was currently ranked as the worst BCS conference offense in history according to kenpom.com's efficiency rating.  It was a nightmare.

Now?  Well the offense is still terrible (320th in the country) and in conference play has been even worse with the Wildcats (more like Mildcats, right?) only scoring 0.85 points per possession which ranks dead last in the conference, but the results in the win/loss column have been surprisingly good.  Home wins over Illinois and Purdue and road wins at Indiana and Wisconsin have Northwestern sitting at 4-5 and sixth in the conference.  Right now they're half a game behind a bye in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament.  This is ludicrous.  Chris Collins must be some kind of really short wizard, right?  Well kind of.

Obviously if your offense is putrid like a dead anaconda Ice Cube blew up you have to be winning with your defense, right?  Right, and Collins has turned a group of mostly questionable athletes used to playing a passive zone into a group that plays an absolute shut down man-to-man.  In their conference wins they've allowed 43, 47, 60 (in 2OTs), and 56 points.  It works, and it's also a very safe style of play.  They don't put any pressure on the ball, so they don't cause turnovers, they send everyone to the defensive glass so they don't allow many offensive rebounds but don't get many fast breaks themselves either, and they send everybody back after a shot so they don't get their own offensive rebounds but limit their opponents transition opportunities.  They play extremely fundamentally sound defense (NERDS!), and by not taking any chances they make the offense execute in the half court to score.  If this sounds a little scary considering Dre Hollins is still out and DeAndre Mathieu is coming off a nine turnover game, it should.

Not to harp on that defense, but they're really, really good.  Big Ten opponents have made just 29.7% of their three point attempts against them and 43.9% of their two pointers, and their effective field goal percentage against of 44.1% is tops in the Big Ten and would be #23 nationally over the entire season.  Those numbers reflect how the Wildcats are almost always in correct position which means few easy shots allowed.  They sacrifice creating steals and turnovers in exchange for always being in a shooter's face by never, ever taking chances (Cobb will occasionally but it's rare), and it's really a genius style of play for an undermanned squad in both the athletic and talent department.  Watching them is like watching an instructional video.  Yes, I've been very impressed by them.  So what?  No, I don't want to marry them.  Leave me alone.

Offensively Northwestern is pretty terrible but so is the Gopher defense so I'm shrugging my shoulders right now.  Drew Crawford is in his 8th season and with him showing no ill effects from his injury last year he's pretty much the same guy you remember and the top offensive threat for the Cats.  He's their highest usage player and also their most efficient, and is one of the few guys in the conference who excels at driving to the hoop but can hit the 3 as well, although his percentage is pretty shitty this year (32%).  The only other scary guy on the team is Tre Demps, simply because the man loves to shoot despite hitting just 39% this year (which is actually a career high - true story).  Hes' the most likely Wildcat to do the Sam Cassell Big Balls dance at some point, simply because he'll do something like play a bad game and then hit a gigantic three pointer right when they need it or make a super fancy pass for a lay-up or something.  He's a scary man cuz he just don't care.

The rest of the team is whatever and probably really smart (NERDS!).  Jershon Cobb is actually the team's second leading scorer and should probably be scarier than he is but he's basically just a mediocre jump shooter.  Alex Olah is big and tall and takes up lots of space and sometimes makes lay-ups.  Dave Sobolewski has been injured and who knows if he'll play, but it's probably good for the Gophers if he does since he's a turnover machine shooting 25% from the floor this year.  Sanjay Lumpkin mainly flails around and solves physics proofs in his head, Kale Abrahamson likes to throw the ball at the rim from far away and has a weird name, and their only real back-up big man, Nikola Cerina, actually looks like he's angry at his teammate anytime somebody passes him the ball.  And there's the guy with that jewish hat thing.

Seriously though, even if I'm not really scared of Northwestern's offense their defense can play well enough where they don't have to score very many points, and Crawford and Demps and if somebody else gets hot can definitely score just enough, especially against a pretty poor defensive team like the Gophers.

Minnesota will have to play smart and work the ball inside in the half court and take every advantage to run if any present themselves.  This is a game the Gophers could win by 20, but they could lose by 20 just as easily if they aren't careful.  Since I'm still counting myself as an optimist this year, I'm gonna say they get it done.

Minnesota 68, Northwestern 55.

[EDIT:  I somehow completely forgot to mention that Northwestern cannot figure out a press, at least without Sobolewski.  Gophers need to add more trapping to their press on Saturday.]

Gophers 69, Northestern 51

 Well I'm not sure I can call it a good win, but they did end up covering the spread and so just looking at the final margin everything looks good, even if that first half was some of the ugliest basketball I've ever seen and was so boring even Bo Ryan wanted them to speed up the game.   They managed to make adjustments in the second half and ended up winning easily - a pretty impressive feat that once again shows how good and experienced this team is.  I'll make a few other points, once again in list style like I did after the Michigan State game because it's easier and then I don't have to bother with those pesky transition sentences between paragraphs.  Those guys are jerks.

-  I was stunned Tubby wasn't running any kind of a press to try to jump start the tempo of the game, since it was obvious from the beginning (and should have been obvious before the game, based on stats) that Northwestern was going to try to limit the number of possessions in the game.  I give him a little bit of credit for at least figuring that out in the second half, even if the full court pressure was more of a token man-to-man the half-court man trap definitely got the game moving.  With the pressure upped it caused more steals and more shots from the Wildcats earlier in the shot clock, which led to more opportunities in transition where Northwestern got killed by Michigan and, sure enough, the Gophers had a significant advantage and it's basically what changed the game.  Once again, I'm right.

-  The Gophers' edge in athleticism also manifested itself, along with their size advantage, on the boards where Minnesota grabbed as many offensive boards as Northwestern had total, and the overall rebounding margin was 45-20 in their favor.  Northwestern just had no answer.  I will say that Alex Olah is eventually going to be really, really annoying.  He's already a beast size wise and is just a freshman, and even though he got pretty well schooled by Mbakwe in this game it'd be hard to find a freshman big man who wouldn't.  I may be overrating him a bit but it wouldn't surprise me at all if he ends up a double-double guy by the end of his career.  That's assuming he progresses in his game and gets quicker and more athletic.  If not, well, hello Luka Mirkovich v. 2.0.

-  Despite all that goodness, the turnovers are still rough.  The Gophers gave it away 15 times against a team that doesn't cause very many of them.  This needs to change, or it good be the difference between a great season and merely a very good one.

-  I think the Austin Hollins run of five three-pointers was the most fun I've had at a game all year.  The Rodney and Mbakwe dunks (and Coleman, I suppose) might be more individually exciting, but there's just something fun about a guy just being absolutely on fire from 3.  I just love watching the heat checks.  Like how Hollins' third three pointer was probably a little bit of a bad decision but who cares because he already hit two, and then his fourth was just a deep, deep three-ball he never would have taken if he hadn't hit three already.  Just fun to see.  The Gophers may not have a reliable shooter this year (sorry but no, they don't) but they have two guys who could hit eight in a game and it would phase me.  And they're both named Hollins! What are the odds?!!?!??!?

-  Speaking of Mbakwe dunks, how terrifying was that absolute monster he threw down?  This one:



I think my favorite part is how there are four Northwestern players near the lane and none of them do anything about it, especially Swopshire who just kind of chills out and watches.  Not that I can blame him, I'm actually surprised there isn't anybody actively running out of the lane, which is would I'd do.  That's one of those where if they were still using the same kind of back boards from back in the Shaq and Jerome Lane days there'd be a rain of glass and a healthy delay. 

-  Wally Ellenson certainly isn't shy.  Six shots in six minutes.  He's obviously not shy, and his amazing jumping ability means he can probably get that jumper off against almost anybody.  He looks like he's heading for an instant offense type role off the bench next season.  Assuming he makes enough shots, since the difference between instant offense and chucker is merely how many go in.

-  For Northwestern, I thought both Reggie Hearn and Jared Swopshire looked good.  Hearn had some real nice moves, although you could tell he was still hurting.  It's no surprise he's their leading scorer.  As for Swopshire, he looked really good on a few plays but then would disappear for long stretches.  He actually reminded me so much of Dan Coleman it was incredible.  Excellent tools - athletic, skilled, tall, good shooter - but for whatever reason just completely disappeared at times.  I'm convinced Northwestern has enough good role players to be at least a fringe bubble team, but nobody to pull them altogether.  Would have been interesting to see this group with Crawford. 'Tis a true shame.

-  I also can't believe they managed to find a little Shurna clone with a worse haircut.  How two different D-I caliber players can both have that same ugly jumper - but both still be good shooters - and both end up at Northwestern is uncanny.  I spent at least five minutes at the game convincing to my dad that "that guy with the funny shot" actually graduated and this was a brand new guy.  Thanks Kale (lol nice name) Abrahamson.  Looking forward to three more years of that.

-  Finally, speaking of my dad, I mentioned on Twitter that he was the Season Ticket Holder of the Game since he's had tickets since the mid-60s.   Was pretty cool overall.  We (me and Snacks got to go up with him since we're his sons) got to go to halfcourt and they made the announcement and took pictures and he got a ball autographed by Tubby that Snacks and I are already fighting over.  The only negative was that god damn Goldy.  He kept touching our heads and photo-bombing the pictures my mom was trying to take from the stands and just being a general nuisance, as mascots are known to be.  Seriously, what must be wrong in someone's head to make a grown man/woman actually want to be a mascot?  Being a cheerleader is weird enough but at least you get to grab chick's asses and hang out with them on road trips and stuff.  Being a mascot is just sociopathic.  At least Snacks got a little revenge, turning to Goldy after the pictures were done and telling him, "We're going to photoshop you right out of there."  The dumbass mascot seemed legitimately disappointed that someone didn't like him, which, again, points to sociopathic tendencies.  As usual, I'm always right.

;-  Up next is the toughest road trip of the year, and it's a good time for it.  Going to Illinois (who just crushed Ohio State) and Indiana is one hell of a test.  If the Gophers manage to win one of these you can go ahead and up your expectations of the team a bit.  Even if they lose both they still look like a Sweet 16 team, and who can complain about that other than Fat Reusse?

Preview: Gophers vs. Northwestern

First, drop whatever you're doing unless you're holding a baby or working with plutonium (1.21 JIGGAWATTS!!! - side note:  I bet that's Jay-Z's favorite unit of measurement) and go here to read four awesome Gopher fans be realists.  Matt from Fringe Bowl Team, FrothyGopher aka G'Swan from Still Got Hope (ha ha suck it TRE), and myself were invited by the From the Barn dudes to have a virtual roundtable type discussion about the Gopher hoop team.  The results were predictably cynical, yet moody.  Also predictable?  It was more entertaining than anything I've ever written, so stop being such a douchebaby and go read it.

Now, onto the business on the table, and that's Sunday's game against Northwestern, and as depressing as it is to talk about this only 7 games into the Big Ten schedule, this is a must win game.  Yes, it's a must win game.  Of course, since Northwestern has followed the Gophers' plan of not beating, nor scheduling games against, any quality opponents and then starting the B10 season at 2-4, it's close to a must win game for the Wildcats as well (although in their defense the Iowa and Purdue losses by the Gophers are far worse than anything Northwestern has done so far).  Since these two teams desperately need this one, you can expect an intense, well-played game with crisp execution and a maximum effort and focus on every possession.

I'm just kidding.  These two programs are the most likely in the conference to play like dickheads in a big game and are equally likely to rise up and crush some poor fools (Minny over Indy, NW over Mich State) so basically anything could happen in this game and it wouldn't surprise me.  But what could we see?  Let's look.  Join me on a magical adventure.  Levar Burton is here too.

The first thing I have to tell you is I really don't know much about the Wildcats this year.  Every time I sit down to watch one of their games it's at their place where that weird ass purple court (where the entire area betwixt the paint and 3-pt line is this weird purple but not quite a solid purple) eye rapes me and I can't really look at if for more than a few minutes at a time.  So I'm only going to discuss three players who I know quite well and ignore guys like Dave Sobolewski and David Curletti and Alex Marcotullio because I have no idea who they are, even though Sobolewski spent a week on my fantasy squad.

First up are Drew Crawford and John Shurna, and honestly they're like, the only two who actually matter because they score over half Northwestern's points and are top 3 in everything else.  They can both do basically anything and everything.  Crawford does it in a smooth, suave, athletic way and is kind of a poor man's Ray Allen without an immortal jumper and Shurna does it in the nerdiest way ever that is reminiscent of the weird kid who was always at the park shooting at those chain nets and double rims with his rubber ball who never had an ounce of teaching but still managed to be pretty decent.  There's no reason the Gophers shouldn't be able to shut down Shurna but let's be honest you could say that about every game he's played this year.  the guy is just a nerdtastic machine who makes Kevin Coble look like Brad Pitt.  But he gets it done.  And Crawford is a straight up stud.

Normally if there's a team who relies on two dudes this much I'd say just do everything you possibly can to stop those two but I assume Northwestern has a shit ton of white dudes who can shoot based on some of those names and since the Gophers have little to no idea how to defend the three-pointer that would probably be a bad idea.  Also Northwestern has that zone which sometimes gives the gophers fits and I'd totally go into it but there's something I really want to talk about and I can't think about anything else so let's just go:  Luka vs. Ralph.

Luka Mirkovich is the least mobile person I've ever seen.  His defense is very similar to this lamp I'm sitting next to.  His best offensive move is somehow using his fat slowness to trick the guy guarding him into thinking he's not actually moving and then suddenly make a lay-up.  If he and Stephen Hawking had a good ole fashioned athletic face-off the line would be Luka -120.  If Ralph and Luka played one-on-one there is no good reason Ralph shouldn't win 11-1.  And yet.

This what I want to see and it's my own fault for caring about Ralph so much when I've metaphorically fallen down the stairs so many times because of him, and yet I'm back for more like whatever Charlie Sheen's wife's name was.  Please Ralph.  I shouldn't even give you another chance but this is it.  Line drawn in the sand.  Must win game.  At home.  Crowd wants to get behind you.  Going up against a tree with glasses.   Please Ralph.  Give it to me.  Give it to me how I like it.  Stop being such an asshole.  This is your time. 

Also I have no idea why I wrote that Levar Burton thing earlier.  I'm not sure that made much sense.  But really, not much about this post made sense.  I'm very tired and you're annoying me.

Gophers 66, Wildcats 65.

Big Ten Preview - #8 NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS

Northwestern's outlook actually is pretty rosy this year:  John Shurna is back to look like a total spaz nerd and do a little bit of everything, Drew Crawford now has two years under his belt and should just continue to get better, Luka Mrkovich will once again be the middle moving very little, JerShon Cobb should be a breakout candidate, and most of the little bit parts are here once again as well.

Two problems.

The first being that the major piece that is gone from last season is Michael Thompson who I refuse to call juice, the guy who piloted this team for the last four years - including two of the best in the program's history - and left as the all-time leader in assists for the Wildcats.  That's not easy to replace and I don't know who is going to do it.  Actually I don't think Northwestern knows yet.  Alex Marcotullio is probably first in line, but let's be honest if he wins the job there's no chance this team makes the NCAA Tournament.  If Drew Crawford or JerShon Cobb can't transition from off the ball player to ball-handler the Wildcats will have to hope one of their promising newcomers - guards Tre Demps and David Sobolewski - are good enough to step in right away.  Both are described as combo guards which normally I'd make fun of because there's not a real PG on the roster but the Gophers are basically doing the same thing so who am I to judge?

The second problem is that, even if they work the PG spot out perfectly, I've already fallen for this.  I was convinced last year everything had come together for Northwestern to finally, mercifully, grab that first ever NCAA Tournament bid.  And how I was I rewarded for my faith?  Just like Snape was rewarded by Voldemort - a painful death.  So no, I refuse to buy in.  There's no reason to think they'll be better than last season, last season was supposed to be their perfect storm, and they sucked last season.  Boom.  The end.

DWG Over/Under Conference Wins:  7.5

Oh Snap, here come the Wildcats!

After the world's worst Minnesota sporting weekend I almost forgot that we now get to welcome Northwestern and their boring ass offense and amorphous blob of an unsolvable zone to the Barn.  Since no matter how hard I try to ignore this fact it won't go away, we might as well hit up a preview of sorts, eh?

1.  If Kevin Coble's hurt, why is Northwestern better this year than last year?  Mainly because Coble v. 2.0 is on the scene in the form of John Shurna.  He's gangly and awkward, yet fundamentally sound and effective all at the same time.  He was a three-star dork coming out of high school and wasn't heavily recruited and had a pretty non-descript freshman year but has exploded this season, more than doubling his scoring average (from 7 to 17), rebounding average (3 to 7), and assists (1 to 2.5).  Probably roid related.  Solid player (and also a member of my fantasy team, the Rick Rickert All-Stars).

Shurna isn't the only Wildcat to make a major leap this year.  Point guard Michael Thompson, who has inexplicably started going by the moniker "Juice", has increased his scoring by about 50% while increasing his assists and decreasing his turnovers and has already dropped 20+ against three good teams (Purdue, Notre Dame, NC State).  Jeremy Nash, the reptillian-like head to the aforementioned amorphous blob, is suddenly scoring almost ten points a game as a senior after averaging less than 3.5 througout his career and is stealing nearly two balls a game.  He's a major pest.  Add in major contributions from freshman Drew Crawford and it's easy to see why not only are they an NCAA contender this year, but could be real threat next year as well.

2.  Can you tell me more about this Crawford fella?  Sure.  Crawford, like most Nor'westerners, was a three-star recruit, but unlike most of them he was heavily recruited with offers from Wake Forest and Oklahoma State but chose to sign with the Wildcats due to his experience with one of the team's assistant coaches who coached his 7th grade AAU team and academic reasons (he had a 4.2 GPA in high school and scored 31 on his ACTs).  He's already made an impact at third on the team in scoring, rebounding, and three-pointers made and is a very versatile player at 6-5.  He can go off huge, with games of 35, 25, and 22 already this year, but can also be shut down (6 games of under 5 points).  Containing Crawford is going to be huge tomorrow.  Although Shurna and Thompson are the big guns, Crawford might be the most dangerous.  Like a sub-machine gun. 

3.  So who are the keys for the Gophers?  It seems pretty obvious if you ask me, and that's Devoe Joseph and Blake Hoffarber.  Joseph is the new point guard, and will be the main man responsible for dealing with that zone.  I like this, because a good way to beat a zone is to penetrate the gaps, and although Nolen could penetrate, he sure couldn't finish - just like you.  Devoe will have to balance dribble-penetration and smart passes with getting his own shot - not easy against the Wildcat zone, but I have faith.

As far as the Hoff goes, I am sure you remember how Dawger's boyfriend Jamal Abu-Shamala lit up Northwestern every time they played.  There are two reasons for that:  it's a zone and it's not an athletic team.  Well, they still play zone, they still aren't overly athletic (even with Crawford now), and Hoffarber is ten times the player Shamala was (and that might be low).  He should be able to get his shots early and often, and if he is still red hot could knock this game out in a hurry.

4.  If Minnesota manages to pull this out, is this going to end up being a win over an NCAA Tournament team?  Well, probably not, but there's a shot.  If Northwestern loses to the Gophers, that drops them to 3-5 in conference play and 14-6 overall.  Currently sitting at 56th in RPI (9 spots ahead of the Gophers) and 74th in Strenght of Schedule, they'd certainly have their work cut out for them.  They do have a signature win over Purdue and a whole host of medium-good wins (NC State, Iowa State, Stanford, Notre Dame), so I'd bet 9-9 in the conference would have a shot to get them in.  They still play Indiana, Iowa, and Penn State all twice so winning all of those gets them to 9-9.  It's not likely, but it's possible.  FYI that would mean the Gophers have a whole three wins over tournament teams.  Joy.

5.  In honor of the nerds, can you break this down numbers-wise?  Northwestern ranks 62nd in the country in offensive efficiency, 94th in defensive efficiency, and 288th in tempo.  The Gophers rank 63rd offensively, 12th defensively, and 68th in tempo.  The Wildcats biggest strengths are taking care of the basketball (24th in not turning it over), defending the three (opponents shoot just 28% against - 19th in the country), and shooting the basketball (84th in effective field goal %).  Minnesota's weaknesses are getting offensive rebounds (173rd), allowing offensive rebounds (176th), and defending the three pointer (117th).  The Gophers' strengths are causing turnovers (8th), defending the two-point shot (15th - just 41.8%), and causing steals (7th) and blocks (7th).  Northwestern's weakness are getting offensive rebounds (256th), getting their shots blocked (245th), and defending the two-point shot (205th - allowing 48.6%).

What's all that mean?  The teams matchup fairly well, and this could be a tight one.  Will Blake's hot shooting overcome a Wildcat defense that defends the three-pointer well?  Can Devoe (and Westbrook) get inside the zone and create opportunities?  Will the Gophers interior defense stifle the Cats inside players?  I don't know, but I know that things like "desperation" and "seriously need to win this one" actually go a long way in college basketball.  Plus, they're a bunch of nerds.

Gophers 70, Northwestern 64.