Wednesday Wonderings

I was going to do a statistic-laced post about the candidates for the Twins' rotation next year, but my computer kept shutting itself down due to depression so instead I'll just do that thing where I type whatever I think about.  I'll eventually get to the Twins' rotation because I've already put in too much time to just let it die, but man, looking at Cole Devries and P.J. Walters in the same night is a nightmare not even Poe could have come up with.

-  So Stephen Strasburg is officially shut-down now after 159 innings because he had a rough last outing, which really hurts the Nationals chances in the playoffs and is just, weird.  I understand the thinking behind the move, I just don't think it's the right plan.  Simply getting to the playoffs is damn hard, so when you have a chance at a special year I don't think it makes a whole lot of sense to jeopardize that when you don't even know if there's any actual benefit to doing so.

In the playoffs everybody will bump up one spot, which means the extra starts - assuming four starters - will go to Ross Detwiler instead of Strasburg.  Detwiler's a nice little pitcher - 3.23 ERA, 1.19 WHIP - nice.  But he strikes out half as many batters as Stras while walking the same amount, he's gotten a little bit lucky this year while Strasburg has gotten a tiny bit unlucky (BABIP-wise), and Detwiler throws three average pitches while Strasburg has three above average ones.  I suppose when you end up replacing your ace with your #4 you could a lot worse than Detwiler, but man, Strasburg.  Strasburg, man, Strasburg.

Honestly, is this the worst possible way they could have handled this?  If you're firmly committed to that 160-180 innings limit, however misguided, why wouldn't you at least make an attempt to maximize your value out of it?  Don't just keep running him out there every fifth day because you know come early September you've just run out of your best bullets (armor piercing, exploding, acid tipped, whatever).  Why not skip a few starts?  Why not go with a six-man rotation?  You could even go with a four man rotation and then slot him in just when you need another arm.  Or hell, spot start him part of the time and then use him in relief here and there.  Manage him so you have innings left for him in the playoffs, even if they're just bullpen innings.  Game 7, World Series:  would you rather start Strasburg or Detwiler?  Or how about Game 7, leading 3-2, 8th inning and your opponent has a man on second with zero outs - Strasburg or Craig Stammen?  Ugh.  I'd be so frustrated if I were a Nats fan, but then again I heard from some dude on the radio today that everybody in Washington is buying into this crap, so I guess they deserve what they get.  I hope Detwiler gets completely rocked.

-  I'm not generally one to make excuses for the University of Minnesota because it's more fun to just rip on stuff, but I had a conversation with some co-workers today that kind of made me think a little bit.  Think about all the cities that have all four major sports, like we do:  Boston, Chicago, Denver, Dallas, Detroit, Miami, New York, Philly, Phoenix, San Fran, and D.C.  And look at the most successful college sports program in that same city:  Boston College, Northwestern, U of Denver, Southern Methodist, Detroit-Mercy, U of Miami, St. John's, Villanova/Temple, Arizona State, Cal-Berkeley, Georgetown.  Now looking at that list, and considering success in ALL college sports, who'd you rather be than the University of Minnesota?  Miami and Cal, right?  Maybe B.C.?  Obviously St. John's and Georgetown are better in hoops, but they don't even have football teams I don't think.

So maybe, just maybe, I'm a little too hard on the teams.  After all, most college powers are located in some butthole town in the middle of nowhere so the population has really no choice but to spend all it's money and fan points on the college.  It's also how mini-cults like State College and the like happen, so I'm not saying that's a good thing, but it certainly gives you an idea of why the Gophers struggle at times.  Oh god, I don't even know who I am anymore.  Look away, I'm hideous.

This is me.

-  I'm watching this show Suburgatory for the first time and there's this chick on there named Jane Levy who is an absolute dead-ringer for Emma Stone, both appearance and line delivery-wise, which is totally awesome because I'm madly in love with Emma Stone and now there are two of her which doubles my odds.  Actually, two of her makes that pairing a contender for my dream threesome.  It's either those two, Natalie Portman and Keira Knightley, or Mila Kunis and Justin Timberlake.

It's like a slice of heaven.  Red-headed, smart, sarcastic, sexy heaven

-  I'm sure I had lots of important stuff to say but then I got distracted by Real World and booze and so here we are.

Big Ten Power Poll 11.23.2010

Here is my ballot for this week's Big 10 Power Poll, which you can find over on Myron Medcalf's blog on startribune.com each week.  Last week's is here.


1.  Ohio State Buckeyes.  That win over Florida last week is still the best win of any Big Ten team, and the 19-point win over Morehead State is nice as well.  Plus, have you seen these guys play?  Yikes.

2.  Minnesota Gophers.  North Carolina's loss to Vanderbilt took a little of the luster off the Gophers win, but the weekend in Puerto Rico served notice to the Big Ten that Minnesota is a contender with five wins over possible tournament teams already.  Even in the traditionally physical Big Ten, I'm not sure who can deal with the size and skill combination the Gophers can bring.

3.  Illinois Fighting Illini.  Nothing wrong with a third-place finish in the Coaches vs. Cancer classic, especially when your win is over Maryland and your loss was to Texas in OT.  If one of the trio of wings emerges (Brandon Paul, Jereme Richmond, DJ Richardson) they're going to be lethal.

4.  Purdue Boilermakers.   While most of the rest of the Big Ten contenders are playing in high quality tournaments against NCAA Tournament caliber competition, Purdue played Austin Peay in the Chicago Invitational Challenge.  What ever happened to challenging yourself when you think you're a national title contender?  I should knock them down another couple of spots on general principle.

5.  Michigan State Spartans.  Struggling against Chaminade and losing to UCONN in Maui shows that the Spartans aren't bulletproof, particularly since they lost to UCONN in late game meltdown fashion.  Talentwise they're still in the top 2, but results-wise they're closer to the middle; although there's little doubt Izzo will have them back at the top soon enough.

6.  Wisconsin Badgers.  Wisconsin's loss to UNLV over the weekend wasn't necessarily unexpected - on the road against a probably NCAA Tournament team - but it does drop them to the bottom of the contenders list.  They have a great opportunity to build their resume over Thanksgiving at the Old Spice Classic because they should be one of the two best teams in the field (along with Temple).

7.  Michigan Wolverines.  Bumping Michigan to the top of the lower tier this week, because even though they haven't played a quality opponent they have taken care of business with an average margin of victory of 24 points in their three games.  Tim Hardaway Jr. and Darius Morris are starting to look like a dynamic back court; it'll be interesting to see how they do against Syracuse on Friday.

8.  Northwestern Wildcats.  Still haven't played anybody, and haven't looked all that impressive in their wins over cupcakes, struggling to a win over Texas-Pan American.  With their horrid non-conference schedule, the Wildcats' margin for error is razor thin.

9.  Indiana Hoosiers.  They're beating up on bad teams, which is an improvement from last year at least.  Maurice Creek hasn't been the same player he was last year before he got hurt, but his 19 point outburst against Evansville is a sign that he may still get back to that level.

10.  Penn State Nittany Lions.  Yet another team that hasn't played anybody, and even with that soft schedule they don't have a 20-point win.  On the bright side, it's looking like Penn State might have a breakout star (and some help for Talor Battle) in forward Jeff Brooks, who's averaging 17 points a game after putting up just 7.4 last year.

11.  Iowa Hawkeyes.  When I saw Iowa beat Alabama, a supposed tournament team this year, I thought I was going to have to move them up.  Then the Tide lost to a terrible terrible terrible St. Peter's team, Iowa lost to Dan Monson and Long Beach, and everything suddenly made sense.  Even with Gatens back, this is a very poor Iowa squad.


Upcoming this week:

Michigan State will play in the third place game at the Maui Invitational against the loser of Washington and Kentucky.  That's still an opportunity to get a high quality win, and for the Spartans to reassert themselves as a final four contender.  A 1-2 trip isn't disastrous, but would be a huge disappointment.

Another tournament goer is Wisconsin, who travels to Orlando for the Old Spice Classic.  There are bunch of middling teams involved this year, and Wisconsin and Temple should end up the class of tournament, but wins over most of the other teams (Cal, Georgia, Notre Dame, and Texas A&M in particular) are going to be good wins come March.  Big opportunity for the Badgers here.

Basically only three other games of note the rest of the week:  Michigan will play Syracuse in New Jersey, Penn State will play at Ole Miss, and Northwestern welcomes Creighton to Evanston.  For the Wildcats it's their first opponent worth a damn, while Penn State needs wins of that caliber if they want to grab an NCAA bid, and for the Wolverines we get to find out if they're any good. 

I'm gonna say no.

Big Ten College Basketball 2010 Preview

With the Gophers tipping off tonight I'm beyond geeked. I am incredibly fired up for both the Gophers and college basketball in general, and in that spirit, here is my Big Ten preview.

1.  Ohio State Buckeyes.  I'm not entirely sure why everybody seems to have forgotten or overlooked these guys, but they could be every bit as good as last year or even better.  Evan Turner is a big loss, there's no doubt about that, but either or both of David Lighty or William Buford could make a leap and fill the scoring role.  They have Diebler back to do what Diebler does, the defensive presence of Dallas Lauderdale back for the 8th year, and they add a major weapon in freshman center Jared Sullinger, Rivals #5 incoming recruit for this season.  I had a chance to watch him a little bit this year, and he is absolutely the real deal and a complete beast down low.  I think we're going to see a real battle if him and Mbakwe square off.  All of that plus what ESPN ranks as the #2 recruiting class in the country and these guys are loaded again.  The real question is who handles the ball?  Remember, Turner was the de facto point guard last season and they never really developed anybody behind him.  But if one of the wings can fill the Turner role or freshman Aaron Craft (#111 overall, #28 point guard) is good enough to play right away, the Buckeyes will be in the national picture.   

2.  Michigan State Spartans.  I was pretty sure Sparty was going to be the favorite, but there is just too much negative news coming out of East Lansing these days.  Chris Allen's transfer, Kalin Lucas's injury, Korie Lucious's suspension (2 games), Durrell Summers injury, Garrick Sherman's injury, freshman Adreian Payne's injury, allegations of sexual misconduct - it's a lot to deal with.  Not that I would ever doubt Tom Izzo, who just continues to get everything out of his team and continues to routinely make Final Fours.  Not that it's all him, of course.  Don't forget Sparty did make the Final Four last year, only loses Allen and Raymar Morgan, and gains more talent with the #10 recruiting class in the country according to ESPN.  Maybe it's nothing more than me trying to be contrarian because I'm bored with Michigan State's excellence, but despite the talent it seems things may be lining up for a disappointing year.  Which, in East Lansing, means a five seed and a final four run.

3.  Illinois Fighting Illini.  I don't like this team.  I don't like them at all, and I think it's mostly because I don't like Demetri McCamey's style or his stupid face, but you can't deny they have some serious sleeper potential.  I know they missed the tournament last year and eventually lost to Dayton (yuck) in the NIT but they felt like they were just on the verge and they return everybody.  Super annoying point guard who can win or lose a game single-handedly?  Check.  Super tall white dork who prefers the perimeter to the paint?  Check.  Strong as hell power forward who grabs every rebound and makes up for having a bit of a dandy as your center?  Check.  Two super athletic freshmen (now sophomores) and all the inconsistency that comes with it but should be better this year?  Check.  And they're adding three top 100 guys, the worst of whom is ranked #84.  The Illini seem to underachieve each year under Weber since that incredible Dee Brown/Deron Williams team, but this year is probably his most talented squad since then.

4.  Purdue Boilermakers.  Tough to know exactly where to slot the Boilers after the Robbie Hummel injury, but the sneak peek last year sweet 16 run coupled with the fact that JaJuan Johnson and E'Twaun Moore still make up one hell of a 1-2 punch lead me to believe that we don't exactly need to be throwing any pity parties.  Don't forget they'll also have their point guard, Lewis Jackson, healthy and for the entire year, and what appears to be no depth looking at stats is really just a byproduct of the Big Three dominating the ball (and rightly so).  In reality, junior Ryne Smith and sophomore D.J. Byrd were Rivals top 150 players coming out of high school, Kelsey Barlow is a great athlete who I think has the potential to become a terrific all-around player, and the Boilers welcome a couple more top 100 guys this year in guards Anthony Johnson and Terone Johnson.  Yeah, losing Hummel hurts their national championship aspirations, and somebody is going to have to become the "tough guy" in the paint, but they're going to be just fine.

5.  Minnesota Gophers.  I'm actually tempted to put the Gophers as high as third, but then I remember that nothing ever goes right for a Minnesota team, my hands start to tremble, and I begin silently - but uncontrollably - weeping (not dissimilar to my reaction every time Al Nolen picks the ball up in the lane with no idea where he's going).This is the most talented Gopher team in years, and that's without any improvement from Rodney Williams. If his offensive game starts to blossom this year I'm scared to think of how good they might actually be. They've got the inside covered, scorers on the perimeter including a bona fide go-to guy, good perimeter shooting, and good defense. If Nolen is smart with the ball and/or learned how to hit a jump shot and Rodney makes that leap it could be time to start talking Sweet 16 - or even beyond.  But, because I don't/can't think positively I'm putting them at fifth - safely in the tourny with something like a six seed. Yes, I'm calling that the "worst case scenario" this year.

6.  Wisconsin Badgers.  Am I underrating Wisconsin for the 50th year in a row?  Yeah, maybe.  But screw that if you think I'm going to give those red dorks any actual credit.  Really though, replacing Jason Bohannon and Trevon Hughes is going to be awfully difficult.  Jordan Taylor is there and he will ease the transition by sliding in for Hughes, but who replaces Bohannon?  And behind Taylor and Leuer (who, by the way, is going to have an absolutely monster year - you watch) who's here?  A bunch of dorky, unproven white dudes with weird names like Jarmusz and Nankivil.  And guess what the recruiting class is made up of?  A bunch of three-star, nondescript white guys including a guy with the first name Duje.  On paper this looks like a crappy team.  Just like every year.  So they'll probably prove me wrong and be in the running for a Big Ten title.  And I'll hate every minute of it.

7.  Northwestern Wildcats.  The Kevin Coble quitting thing definitely takes their overall talent level down, but with John Shurna emerging last year Coble would be kind of redundant anyway since they're so similar, and I don't think that's the key to this team making their first ever tournament, either.  I think that mostly rests in the hands of Michael Thompson.  "Juice", as dorks like to call him, has been a quality point guard for the Wildcats for the past three years, and made a big leap forward last year to become one of the top point guards in the conference.  If he can make a similar leap this year (or if Drew Crawford is ready to be Jordan Crawford) that will be the little extra push this team needs to make the tournament, since it's mostly the same team as last year.  Of course, it also wouldn't hurt to play a little defense, because as frustrating as it can be to watch the Gophers try to figure out that 1-3-1, Northwestern was actually a terrible defensive team last year, ranking above only Iowa in the Big Ten in defensive efficiency rating.  So, I guess, yeah.  They should probably fix that.

8.  Indiana Hoosiers.  I think these guys have a little bit of sleeper potential, assuming Maurice Creek is 100% good to go.  Not so much to make the NCAA Tournament but they could knock off a couple of the conference big boys when they come to Bloomington this year.  Creek is tremendous, and I really like Christian Watford's game.  If those two, along with Jeremiah Rivers and Derek Elston, can improve this year it will make the Hoosiers dangerous, and did you know Verdell Jones scored more than 14 points per game last year?  I seriously had no idea, I guess he can score.  Indiana is on the way back, but Tom Crean brings in a subpar class this year after whiffing on basically every top target they went after.  Keep an eye on what happens with Cody Zeller, the #20 player in the class of 2011 who is from Indiana.  If Crean can keep him home that could signal that Indiana is ready to get back to the upper class of the conference.

9. Penn State Nittany Lions.  Well, this is the last chance for the sublime Talor Battle to make it to the NCAA tournament and I gotta say it doesn't look good since the team will be nearly identical to last year's team that won just 11 total games. To have a good front court in the Big Ten you need to big, experienced, and talented. Penn State's trio of David Jackson, Andrew Jones, and Jeff Brooks are big (average of 6-8 and 220 lbs.), and experienced (all three are seniors).  Two out of three ain't bad - except in this case, where it is. Battle should get some help from incoming freshman point guard Taran Buie, a Rivals top 150 recruit and Battle's half-brother. But even if he's as good as Battle, which he won't be, they're going to need something from the paint, and I don't see where it's going to come from.

10.  Michigan Wolverines.  Beilein certainly had them moving in the right direction, but now after a disappointing year that saw Michigan not play in any postseason tournament Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims are gone, along with the 53% of the teams scoring, 43% of its rebounding, 34% of its assists, 47% of its blocks, and 41% of its steals that those two provided - and the cupboard is pretty bare.  Darius Morris is going to end up being a very good point guard, but beyond him their best player is Zack Novak, and he is the very definition of average.  There's some talent coming in, including Tim Hardaway's kid, Al Horford's brother, and Evan Smotrycz, a 6-8 shooter who plays perfectly for Beilein's system, but not nearly enough to make this team relevant this year.  Somehow, Michigan is going through a rebuilding period for the second time in four years.

11.  Iowa Hawkeyes.  They already had last place locked up, and then word came out that their only good player, Matt Gatens, is out for an indefinite amount of time with a knee injury [ok, so it turns out it's only three weeks].  Honestly, they are going to struggle to win five games this year, and I don't mean in the Big Ten, I mean total.  Looking at their schedule, it's not a cake walk, and I only see four games they'll be favored in (South Dakota St, LA-Monroe, SIU-Edwardsville, and Idaho State) and one other they might be favored in (LA Tech) - that's it.  They'll be underdogs in every other game.  Now, they'll probably manage an upset here or there, but if the Hawks get to 10 total wins this year it would be a miracle.  New coach Fran McCaffery wants to play a more uptempo style so they'll be less boring now and in the future, but this year is going to be brutal.  Think 2010 Gopher football brutal.


Now let's get it on.



Other Previews:
Mountain West 
SEC 
Atlantic 10 
Big East 
Pac 10
ACC
Big 12

Full Gopher Hoop Schedule Released

I had a blog earlier breaking down the Gopher hoopsters non-conference schedule, coming to the conclusion that, once again, it was pretty easy and the team should have at least nine wins heading into big ten play.  Now the full conference schedule has been released, and this is where they are going to really have to do some damage in order to get off that 8-11 seed area in the tournament.

Let's say they go 9-2 during the non-conference slate with losses to North Carolina and then either in the Puerto Rico third-place game to Vandy or WVU, or if they were to win that one a loss to one of their lesser opponents (Virginia, Siena) in an upset.  With that going in, a 9-9 record in the Big 10 would leave them on the bubble, a 10-8 record would get them in but likely wouldn't result in any kind of big bump in seeding, while 11-7 would probably move them up into the 5 range.  That should be the goal in Year 4 of the Tubby era, at a minimum.  So let's look (Bold = home game):

	28	Tuesday	Wisconsin	6:00 p.m.	ESPN2
	31	Friday	Michigan State	3:00 p.m.	Big Ten Network
Jan.	4	Tuesday	Indiana	6:00 p.m.	ESPN2
	9	Sunday	Ohio State	1/3:00 p.m.	Big Ten Network
	13	Thursday	Purdue	6:00 p.m.	ESPN2
	16	Sunday	Iowa	5/6:00 p.m.	Big Ten Network
	22	Saturday	Michigan	6:00 p.m.	Big Ten Network
	26	Wednesday	Northwestern	7:30 p.m.	Big Ten Network
	29	Saturday	Purdue	Noon	CBS
Feb.	2	Wednesday	Indiana	5:30 p.m.	Big Ten Network
	6	Sunday	Ohio State	1:00 p.m.	ESPN
	10	Thursday	Illinois	8:00 p.m.	ESPN/2
	13	Sunday	Iowa	5:00 p.m.	Big Ten Network
	17	Thursday	Penn State	6:00 p.m.	ESPN/2
	22	Tuesday	Michigan State	8:00 p.m.	Big Ten Network
	26	Saturday	Michigan	3:30 p.m.	Big Ten Network
Mar.	2/3**	Wed./Thurs.	Northwestern	7:30/8 p.m.	ESPN/ESPN2/BTN
	6	Sunday	Penn State	Noon	Big Ten Network

Definite wins:  Iowa, @ Iowa, Penn State, Northwestern, Indiana
Likely wins:  @ Penn State, Michigan, @ Michigan, @ Indiana
Probable losses:  @ Purdue, @ Michigan State

That gives them a 9-2 record in the conference, with seven other games that I'd consider toss-ups:  @ Wisconsin, @ Ohio State, Purdue, Ohio State, Illinois, Michigan State, and @ Northwestern.

If they go 0-7 in those games then I don't think they'll get in despite the 9-9 conference, barring a big run in the B10 Tournament due to lack of marquee victories, so they'll have to get at least one of those toss-up games.  If they can win two of those games, just two, the NCAA Tournament would be a lock and likely a good seed to go with it.

Really, looking at this anything less than 11 Big Ten wins and 20 wins overall should be looked at as an abject failure this year.  The Conference is very tough at the top, but the bottom is gooey soft and a team with NCAA aspirations should be able to rip through those bottom feeders and pad itself a very nice record.  Am I setting myself up for disappointment?

I can't help but feel like I'm walking into a trap, just like Tiger when he got home and that crazy domestic abuser Elin was waiting with a golf club.  Maybe it's a lifetime of having the rug pulled out from under me as a Gopher (and Minnesota sports in general) fan.  This should be a very good year, and they should be set up for a top 3-4 finish in conference, a middle-low seed in the tournament, and a very winnable opening round game, and once you get passed that first game who knows what can happen.

I'm looking forward to it.  I feel like someone is stabbing me in the gut with a knife made out of ice, but I'm looking forward to it.  Please, Tubby.  Not you too.

Of course, not everyone shares those reservations.  New Minnesota Sports blogger MNSportsSideFX broke down the schedule and predicts the team will end up 13-5 in the tournament and 21-6 overall.  Personally, I think that's loony tunes when your point guard can't shoot and you don't have anyone who can create offense, but it's certainly not completely out of the realm of possibility.

Just mostly.