Ponder Apology and Other Stuff

Listen up, buddy

 Ponder Apology

I think it's time I issued Christian Ponder an apology.  I watched quite a bit of Ponder when he played at Florida State and I often felt that despite being surrounded by talent, Ponder failed to live up to expectations.  He threw for 49 TDs and 30 INTs and averaged about 2200 passing yards during his 3 years as a starter.  His arm wasn't much in doubt in college, but his decision making and accuracy were.

Fast forward to the Vikings taking him 12th and Ponder starting at QB for 11 games of the 2011 season.  Again I found Ponder largely unimpressive.  Occasionally he'd make some plays, but so did Trent Dilfer.  My opinion going into this season was that Ponder's upside is a middle of the road NFL quarterback.

Ponder, I'm sorry.  I had no idea that you'd come into 2012 looking like a right-handed Steve Young.  You're completion percentage this year is 15% higher than anything you did in college or last  year.  Incredible!  Ponder did throw his first two INTs of the year against the Titans, but I think he was just bored.  Some credit has to go to the offensive line and the play-calling.  The bottom line though is with time and opportunity, Ponder has taken advantage and made some great throws.  Keep up the good work, it's fun to watch.

Ced, no!

 Gophers Owe Me an Apology

Two Saturday's back the Gophers went into Iowa with a 4-0 record and got mutilated by the hated Hawkeyes.  They came in with a number of injuries;  Gray, O-line, the secondary...  This didn't help, but I also thought the play-calling was a little wonky.  It's ok to predictable when your line and quarterback can flat run the defense over, but this offense did not seem to cater too well to our personnel.  Again, maybe this was due to injury.  Shortell missed a number of throws that I'm sure he'd love to get back and our white speed receivers had some opportunities to bail him out and they couldn't come up with the big plays.  Even worse was the defense.  The Gophers D was putrid against the run and the pass.  Ced Thompson got absolutely murdered several times in the secondary.  What's even worse though is we didn't have injuries to our DEs and OLBs and they were getting killed against runs on the edge.  Much credit has to go to the Iowa offensive line, but you can guarantee the rest of the B1G took notice and we'll see a lot of runs attacking our ends and OLBs.  

All 6'7" of Ted "The Mad Stork" Hendricks

Mega Linebacker

Over the last 10-15 years we've seen a greater prevalence of the big, play-making tight end in the NFL.  There used to be the occasional Shannon Sharpe or Tony Gonzalez or Antonio Gates, but now the league is filled with these guys.  They're generally massive and athletic.  Most of the time, NFL defensive coordinators defend these guys by roughing them up with linebackers and keeping some safety coverage over the top.  This isn't working though, and I'd contend it's because most of the time the LBs and Safeties are not tall enough to compete with these passes.  Last year, 5 of the NFL's leaders in receptions were tight ends.

Why isn't there a position to cover these guys?  Many times, a big, athletic wide receiver will convert to cornerback or safety because he's not cut out to be a wide-out or he's just more suited for the defensive side of the ball.  This should also be happening with tight-ends.  There should be a mega linebacker position that is big and fast enough to hang with these tight ends.  Mega-LB, think about it... the time has come.

That's not how you hang yourself, Gardy.

Did the Twins Play a Season?

It seems like just yesterday I was mildly disinterested in whether our Twins could win 65 games or not.  Now it's all over.  You can always tell it's all over when you receive your annual Twins management apology email.  You know the one, where they promise to work hard all off-season and bring it all together next year.  Oh, and by the way, season tickets are available, you guys!

Sadly, the Twins are in danger of being this poopy for several years.  They have no pitching.  None.  Look at DWGs post about their pitching.  Brutal.  Their other big problem is that they have set their "budget" at a point that doesn't allow the opportunity to take any big chances in free agency.  Look, they might scrape by with the offense the way it is and there really isn't much in free agency there anyway unless they're signing Josh Hamilton (they're not).  They positively cannot scrape by with that pitching staff though.  And there are several middling, not too old, starting pitchers that will be free agents, but you're going to have to give them 3+ years and maybe $7-10MM per year.  The Twins should get at least 2, if not 3 of those guys.  Losing Pavano would free up a lot of that money.  Pavano now throws 84, he's done.  Here are a few starting pitching free agents I'd take a long look at if the purse strings were opened just a little bit:

Edwin Jackson (29) $11mm - Last off-season I was saying the Twins should give Edwin 4 years and $40MM and see what happens. He had a very nice year for the Nats despite ending up with a 10-11 record.  He lowered his walk rate significantly and ended up with a 1.22 WHIP, which rules.  Apparently last year Boras was looking for $12 a year for Edwin, again if I could do 4/40 I would.  His average season over the last 3 years has been: 207 IP, 3.94 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, but a lot of his numbers continue to trend in the right direction.

Brandon McCarthy (29) $4.275 - McCarthy had an unlucky 2012, first with shoulder trouble and then being hit in the head by an Erick Aybar liner.  There is supposedly a chance of Brandon returning for the A's in the playoffs, but they're likely out the door before that comes to fruition.  Unlike Blackburn, McCarthy is a sinkerballer that actually keeps the ball down and is effective.  Since coming to Oakland from Texas he's had an ERA in the low 3s and a miniscule WHIP.  He doesn't miss a lot of bats.  The head injury could possibly get you a discount on McCarthy. 

Shaun Marcum (31) $7.725 - Marcum is damn near a 31 year old Pavano clone.  Doesn't walk anyone, 1.22 career WHIP, no fastball at all, workhorsey.  He kind of broke down last year, but if healthy he's the type of dude the Twins love.  He has much success with a good change-up and a solid slider.  2-3 year deal in the $7-8MM range probably gets him.

Anibal Sanchez (29) $8MM - Sanchez put together two and a half solid seasons with Miami before being moved to Detroit. Sanchez has a very effective change-up as well, with a fastball in the low 90s.

Kevin Correia (32) $4MM in 2012 - Correia throws around 90mph, which the Twins would love.  He sports a career 1.37 WHIP and is coming off one of his best seasons where he only threw 171IP and had a 4.21 ERA.  He's on the cheap side of middle rotation filler guys.  Maybe 2-3 years at $4-5MM a season would do it.  He could also be a 1 year contract type depending on the market.

Jorge De La Rosa (32) $10.75MM - De La Rosa only had 3 (bad) starts this year as he was coming off of arm Tommy John in May 2011.  He has an $11MM option for 2013 that the Rockies are unlikely to take, imo.  Before arm surgery, the lefty was around 93mph and was sort of a late bloomer, winning 16 games in '09.  Despite doing next to nothing for the better part of two years, I suspect a 3yr/25MM deal would be the neighborhood you'd have to be in to get Jorge.


Other jerks that would probably be a top 3 starter for the Twins: Derek Lowe (40), Jonathan Sanchez (30), Scott Feldman (30), Erik Bedard (34), Hiroki Kuroda (38), Kyle Lohse (oh god, 34), Ryan Dempster (36), Carlos Villanueva (29)

Cold MN might make Amanda McCarthy sad. :(

Why the Gophers Will Win More Games than the Vikings

  VS.

In 2012, the Minnesota Golden Gopher football team will win more games than the Minnesota Vikings


There, I said it.  Neither of these teams are going to set the world on fire, of course.  This is more like a race between me and a one-legged dog dragging his ass across the ground. (the dog wins by a stump)  This is a matter of looking at two teams and their opponents and their potential to exceed expectations.  Point blank, there is very little chance the Vikings exceed expectations, but there is a chance that the Gophers will. Here are the top 5 reasons the Gophers will win more games than the Vikings this year.

I own TRE

The Schedule 

The Vikings start with a couple of winnable games early, but unfortunately, these are games where Adrian Peterson may not play or at least will have a reduced role.  Luckily, MJD might be holding out as well, so we might see a 6-3 shootout on Sept 9 vs Jacksonville.  The biggest problem with the Vikings' schedule is that the other teams in their division are much better than they are.  They could easily go 0-6 against Detroit, Green Bay and Chicago.  Winnable games include JAC, @IND, @WAS, ARI, @SEA, @STL. Only two of those games are home games though.  On the plus side, two of their three wins last season came on the road.

2012 Golden Gopher Schedule

Date Opponent Aug. 30 at UNLV 10:00pm Sep. 8 New Hampshire 11:00am Sep. 15 Western Michigan 11:00am Sep. 22 Syracuse 7:00pm Sep. 29 at Iowa 11:00am Oct. 13 Northwestern 11:00am Oct. 20 at Wisconsin TBA Oct. 27 Purdue TBA Nov. 3 Michigan TBA Nov. 10 at Illinois TBA Nov. 17 at Nebraska TBA Nov. 24 Michigan State TBA

The Gophers start with four games that they are likely to be the favorite in, with the possible exception of a solid Western Michigan team.  Then they go to Iowa to try to hold the Floyd of Rosedale trophy for a 3rd consecutive year.  Games at Wisconsin, at home versus Michigan (58-0) and at Nebraska are all virtual locks to be losses.  They've played Michigan State well and games like Northwester, Purdue and Illinois are winnable. 


Quarterback

Christian Ponder was a first round pick by the Vikings one year ago and was thrown into the fire in 2011.  He showed flashes and ended up with 13 touchdowns and 13 interceptions, completing 158 of 291 pass attempts.  At times, he showed poor accuracy, but does appear to have an NFL caliber arm.  He has a tendency to roll out to his right side when the pocket breaks down and I wonder if/when defenses will start scheming for this.  I thought he was a reach at the time (Ryan Mallet lover alert) and although he hasn't been a total poopstain, I'm not sure there's a lot of upside there.

MarQueis Gray finally got his first full year at QB for the Gophers last year.  He only passed at a 50.7% clip and threw 8 TDs against 8 INTs, but whoa nelly can he run!  Gray ran for 966 yards and 6 TDs and had 3 games where he ran for 160+.  Not bad for your first year under center.  Think about this: he had 23 pass attempts total in the two years prior.  He's entering his senior year at the same position with the same coaches, which hasn't happened the Carter administration.  (FACT)  The Gophers' success this year will be directly attributed to how big of a leap that Quis can make in 2012.  I think it will be significant.

 

 

Young Players with Tremendous Upside

Anyone know who the Vikings drafted?  A tackle and a white defensive back from Notre Dame, right?  Anyone else?  Me either.  Actually, superfast corner Josh Robinson looks intriguing and Greg Childs out of Hawaii had some potential (RIP, Greg),  but I won't let that get in the way of a good story.  How about second year guys?  Something called Mistral is starting in the secondary I think.  One second year guy I do like is Kyle Rudolph.  That dude is a stud. Let's hope while Ponder (also a 2nd year guy) is running for his life he lobs it to Kyle from time to time. 

Virtually the entire Gopher team is young.  Many played as freshmen and more freshmen and sophomores (duh) will get time this year.  Gray and linebackers Keanon Cooper and Mike Rallis are some of the elder statesmen and hopefully they can provide leadership.  Many Gopher recruits were not super-highly rated by various publications, but we've seen Kill find diamonds in the rough at both Northern Illinois and Southern Illinois.  He poops on your publications.  Skill positions players like Harbison, McDonald, Maye and Nelson are all exciting.  There are some massive o-lineman that are underclassmen and well get opportunity.  The DEs other than Wilhite are young.  Even some of the old guys are new guys since they're Juco transfers.  This is the gift and the curse of the Brewster regime.  The slate has been virtually wiped clean there's plenty of opportunity for players to surge up the ranks like DWG climbing the Class E softball batting leaders.

Depth

I think the Vikings suffer greatly from a lack of depth.  If you look at the chart, we're an ACL away from Larry Dean and Tyrone McKenzie.  Former Minnesota Timberwolve Chris Carr is also on the two-deep.  God forbid we get into Quentin Saulsberry territory. 

On the flip side, the Gophers, while young seem to have depth at QB, offensive line and even at wide receiver (WHAT?).  My friend and honored scrub @FrothyGopher thinks the secondary is as deep as it's been since the Wacker era.  There are competitions and possible rotations all over the place, and this time I think it may not necessarily be because everyone sucks!

The Head Coaches

Leslie Frazier is just kind of a drip.  He knows football, but he kind of mopes around and bores the pants off of everyone.  My guess is there's a constant loop of the superbowl shuffle running through his head and it's driving him crazy. 

Jerry Kill gets so damned fired up that he seizes on the sidelines (please don't do that this year).  He's passionate and has a little twang in his voice that we all enjoy.  Also, he looks like a Gopher, how awesome is that?  I think that if you spend time around Kill you can see that players respect him and are buying what he is selling.  Of course, that's much easier to have happen in the college game.

Anything Can Happen in College Football

With a few big players stepping forward, teams can make titanic leaps in college football.  I'm not projecting tintanic, but I am expecting improvement.  Also, in college, big players can carry a whole team.  See Denard Robinson or Robert Griffin III or maybe a Montee Ball/Russell Wilson combo.  In the NFL, you need a great all around team to be succussful.  Adrian Peterson and Jared Allen are possibly the best players at their respective positions, and the team stunk like my dog's breath last year.  The point is, a leap by a few players can make a significant impact this year.

Prediction

Both of these teams are not going to be great.  In fact, they are probably both 4-6 win teams.  However, the beauty of a 6 win Gopher football team is they're back in a bowl!  "Postseason!" If you put a gun to my head (you wouldn't be the first, you jerk).  My months of calculations say the Gophers win 5 games this year and the Vikings win just 4.  So, watch the Vikings, hope for them to improve or for Joe Webb to take over or for the Metrodome to cave in again.  But also, watch the Gophers...who knows, they just might play an extra game at the ALAMO BOWL or something.

BOWLING

Monday Musings (World Series, Vikings, Billy Beane, Racism in football, etc.)

I'm watching the World Series right now (currently 2-0 St. Louis in the 3rd) and watching the Rangers work on imploding, which is exactly what Detroit did to hand the Cards their last World Championship, when they were once again a substantial underdog.  So far C.J. Wilson has walked Lance Berkman after being ahead 0-2, and Berkman then advanced to third on David or Daniel Murphy's error on a single to left (which scored Holliday), and then scored when Keith Moreland's kid booted a ground ball.  C.J. Wilson also threw a Furcal bunt away, but was able to pitch out of it.  And now Moreland just hit a Thome-sized home run.  Looks like a ball game.  I'm not going to live blog it like, but I'll just do that thing where I type whatever comes into my head about whatever.  I guess that's what I usually do.  Whatever.  Shut your big fat face.

-  So I suppose, for the first time in two years, there's something worthwhile to talk about with the Vikings.  Of course, this is only because they have clearly jumped into rebuilding mold and Ponder gave everyone hope, but despite being impressed with Ponder I'm not exactly looking forward to the next couple of years. 

Here's your problem - too old and/or too bad.  What do you have?  Well you have a good start because you have one bona fide superstar on each side of the ball (AP and Jared Allen), both of whom will probably be able to give you 3-5 more years at a high level.  That's an excellent start, and far better than a lot of teams can build around.  But from there it's tough.

Ponder looked very good for it being his first start.  He made his mistakes, misjudged just how fast even an old cornerback is in the NFL, and made some interesting decisions, but he also made a lot of good throws, showed a lot of poise for a rookie, and never seemed rattled.  I don't know what exactly his upside is, but, at the very least, he looks like a young QB the team can build around.  It's been a long time since this team has had that (Culpepper), and I'd say Ponder's downside is as a middle of the pack type starter.  That's very, very good.

But what else do you have?  Nothing.  On offense the only other person who has big-time potential is Percy Harvin, but it's hard for me to see him as anything more than a kick returner slot receiver type.  I think his absolute upside is the kind of guy who can have a 5 catch-180 yd-2 td day and then follow it up the next week with 1 catch for 8 yards.  Who else is there?  Kyle Rudolph I guess, but I'm pretty sure everybody loves him because he's white and he's best friends with Ponder who, it turns out, is also white and everybody loves.  We'll see. 

The real problem here is that there is absolutely nothing, and I mean nothing, on that offensive line.  There is not one single player who starts on that line who would start for any other team in the league with the possible exception of Steve Hutchinson, but that doesn't matter because he's too old to matter when this team is 2-3 years away at a minimum.  Loadholt I suppose has some potential and I wouldn't exactly give up on him, but he's not nearly as good as I had hoped and the rest of these guys are fuckin' clown shoes.

And the defense?  Who, outside of Allen is remotely interesting?  Greenway is alright and Robison is fine as long as you're ok with a mediocre DE2, but that's it.  E.J. Henderson?  Please.  Guy is so overrated and still can't move around correctly.  Maybe after another year of healing he'll be ok but I'm not betting on it.  Kevin Williams is done, I have no idea who the other DT or LB is, and the only half-way decent defensive backs are a guy who has had 2 knee surgeries and a guy who is currently in jail.  Antoine Winfield is one of my favorite players ever but he's pretty much done unless he can move to safety which they should definitely try because Hussain Abdullah's one skill seems to be allowing the big play and also because he's probably a terrorist.

The good news is there are some legitimately nice players here - AP, Allen, Harvin, Ponder, and Greenway are all quality players.  The bad news is this isn't baseball or basketball and you can't just trade veterans from prospects and/or picks.  It's unfortunate, because guys like Winfield and Hutchinson would be perfect trade bait in other sports, but not the NFL so their kind of stuck.  So I guess my point is that the Vikings will be bad for a while but should at least be fun to watch.  So I guess that's something.  The Gophers are going to be terrible and no fun to watch, so I guess point NFL.

-  You know what I'd rather watch than that Captain America movie that's coming out on DVD tomorrow?  Anything.

-  You know what I do like though?  Walking Dead.  Very good show so far.  Not exactly the most realistic, but if you're looking for realism in a show about zombies I contend you're kind of lost already. 

-  Last time Pujols came up there as a runner on third with 1 out and they walked him.  Holliday grounded into a double play.  Now there are runners on 2nd and 3rd with 2 outs.  They're walking him again.  The intrigue is so thick you could cut it with a spoon.

-  Ground out to short.  Holliday is terrible.  Billy Beane was right again.

-  Know who the A's got for Holliday?  Shane Peterson, Clay Mortensen, and Brett Wallace.  Mortensen was then traded to the Rockies for Ethan Hollingsworth, Wallace was shipped to the Jays for Michael Taylor, and Peterson is still in the minors (along with Hollingsworth and Taylor).  And Beane originally had to give up Carlos Gonzalez, Huston Street, and Greg Smith to get Holliday.  So essentially he flipped a superstar outfielder (down year notwithstanding), a still capable closer, and a young starter who is already in the majors for three minor leaguers, only one of which (Taylor) is considered a top 20 prospect in their system.  I guess Joe Morgan was right, moneyball schmoneyball.

-  So not only am I playing in the fantasy Big 10 hoops league with my friends (Snacks, Dawger, Snake, Bogart, Optimator, Elk, and Grandslam), but I'm playing in a bigger college hoops league as well, similar to the won I played in - and won - 2 years ago.  We've got 13 teams and we're using the Big Six leagues plus the meaningful outliers (UNLV, BYU, New Mexico, Memphis, Gonzaga, etc.).  It's a lot harder, and I wish I could talk about it more in depth but unfortunately TRE from Still got Hope? (which if you don't read you should) is also in the league, so I can't divulge my secrets.  We fire up the draft tomorrow and it's slowish style so I might get like 2 picks per day.  I pick 9th, and I'll give you a hint (and also TRE picks after me) - if he's there I'm going to go with a guy whose name rhymes with Shumbakwe and probably has a huge crank.

-  That "huge crank" talk is probably inappropriate but I'm going to leave it in there because it's just going to help the google search results.  Also megan fox lesbian kiss midget vagina fart ass sex nick punto.

-  Speaking of Nick Punto vagina farts, he just struck out with runners on 2nd and 3rd and 2 outs.  Big spot there.  Punto's definitely the guy I'd want up in that situation.

-  Adrian Beltre just hit a home run on a lollipop curve ball from his knees.  No lie.  That was pretty weird and impressive.  Now 2-2.  This has been a great series.

Big fuckin' deal, Beltre.  I could've done that do if that dickhead Veeck would've let me swing.

-  So this morning before work one of our Direct TV remotes stopped working.  It had been going and even when we switched batteries it didn't get any better and today it was just done.  So I looked it up on their website and I can get a replacement remote for $15.  I figured cool, that's a reasonable price and I'll swing by the nearest retailer to my house and see how much more it is, thinking I'd be willing to pay $5-$10 to have it tonight rather than waiting for it to ship.  So I get home from work, grab my damn wiener kids so Mrs. W can do her Tae Bo or yoga or whatever it is tonight, and run up to said retailer.  Almost immediately find the remote.  It's priced at $44.99.  Forty.  Five.  Fucking.  Dollars.  Naturally I walked out without it and am now watching the game with no ability to flip channels on the commercials or mute Tim McCarver, but I'm sure as shit not paying 200% more than I have to.  I'll wait a couple days, thanks.

-  Top 7, tie game.  Allen Craig or someone with a name like that, walks with one out and then tries to steal second and is out by two billion feet.  And now they're walking Pujols.  And guess what they would have done if that steal would have been successful?  Yep.  Walked him.  Since he's nearly as likely to hit an XBH as get a single, maybe you just stay put on first, ok?  I get the stolen base and it certainly has it's place, but these two managers both seem to be way to obsessed with it and have both screwed their teams over in this series.  Also let's see if Holliday can go 0-3 after getting slapped in the mouth.

-  Hey a base hit!  Way to go little buddy!  And thanks to a whole bunch of thrown the ball around-itis, we're at 2nd and 3rd with 2 outs.  20 bucks says Berkman strikes out for the 3rd time tonight.

-  I missed what happened with Berkman but the bases were loaded when David Freese struck out so I assume they walked him.

Let me guess, you were expecting a picture of Arnold as Mr. Freeze?  You probably don't even know who this is, do you you unoriginal bastard? 

-  By the way you should probably ignore everything I wrote about the Vikings above.  I made most of that up. 

-  Bottom 7, 1 out, Kinsler on first.  20 bucks says they send him here. 

-  Nope, but Elvis Andrus struck out on 3 pitches.  God they'd be so much better if they hit Napoli or Cruz or even Beltre second.  But of course, Ron Washington can't do that.  You gotta have a guy there who can handle the bat, right Gardy and every other manager in the stupid world.  And Dawger.

-  Ever want to combine racism with football?  Go nuts. 

-  After a leadoff hit by Yadier Molina I'm pretty sure the Cardinals just pinch hit for Skip Schumaker with Ryan Theriot just so he could sac bunt.  You're telling me a dude named Skip can't bunt?  You might as well tell me that sliding into first doesn't get you there faster.  I can't believe it.  I won't.

-  Punto blows it again, striking out in a still tied game with a runner on 2nd and 1 out.  Takes a special kind of guy to constantly disappoint two franchises.

-  In one fantasy league I'm in today I was offered Cam Newton and James Starks in exchange for Hakeem Nicks and LaSean McCoy.  So that was pretty fun.

-  Bases loaded.  One out.  Bottom of the 8th.  2-2 game.  Mike Napoli up.  A hit, and particularly an extra-base hit, would help my bank account tremendously.  Na-Po-Li.  Na-Po-Li.  Na-Po-Li.

-  Double, scores 2.  Damn dude, shit never works out like this for me.

-  That message board I posted earlier really thinks Peyton Hillis is being held down because he's white.  Why can't they just accept that he's terrible at football?  Probably a good blocker though.

-  I couldn't tell you one thing about Lance Lynn.  Well, other than he's a pitcher for St. Louis who is about to come into a high leverage situation in the World Series.

-  Your name is Lance Lynn and you're gonna roll out the perm?  Interesting choice.  Also he just intentionally walked Ian Kinsler and then got yanked.  Looks like LaRussa  has his overmanaging pants on again.

Oh hello.  I pitch for the Cardinals.

-  Feliz now in for the ninth and he gets 2 strikes on Craig and then plunks him right in the back shoulder on a pitch that was so zeroed in on him that there was no way Craig could've gotten out of the way even if his life was on the line.  Pujols up.  Tying run, can't walk him.  Nice.

-  Jesus Pujols has a great eye.  Now at 3-2.  Laid off three close ones but were clearly balls.  He's really good at hitting stuff. Not unlike Chris Cook, I suppose.

-  Strike 'em out throw 'em out.  Pujols whiffs on a pitch that was ball four and Craig is tossed easily and I have no clue why they sent him.  I know Albert doesn't strike out a ton, but you just took a runner out who, really, didn't matter.  If he gets to second and scores on a single who fucking cares, you're still down by a run.  Stupid play.  Tony LaRussa outsmarted himself here tonight.  I hope Holliday hits a home run here.

-  Holliday walks.  Will probably get thrown out stealing.  Stay tuned.

-  Berkman whiffs.  Texas wins.  Pretty sure we're going 7 folks.  Adios and good night.