Though being one game over .500 isn't exactly blowing up the league, the Twins had extremely low expectations with a Vegas over/under of 70.5 wins, so being on pace to win something like 84 games represents a substantially better season than expected. One can't help but wonder how they got here, and if we can expect it to last and maybe see some semi-meaningful baseball in September again for the first time in what feels like forever.
The offense has been about what was expected: Team overall OPS is .675, last year it was .713. They're walking a little less and hitting with a little less power so far, but overall nothing out of the ordinary and they've averaged 4.56 runs per game this year compared to 4.41 last year so the offense is fine. It'd be nice for Kurt Suzuki and Kennys Vargas to start hitting, but the offense is fine. The defense has been atrocious as expected, so the improvement must have come from the pitching.
Sure enough, team ERA in 2015 is 4.07, down a half a run from 4.58 last year. Even better, starters' ERA is 4.38, which is 10th worst in the majors but a major upgrade from last year's 5.06 and 2013's 5.26, both dead last in the majors. Twins' relievers sport an ERA of 3.58, in line with 2014's 3.73 and 2013's 3.50, so any improvement has come from the starting pitching. Might as well look at all these guys and see who might actually be, like, good.
PHIL HUGHES: Hughes had a nearly impossible task trying to replicate both a career year and a historic walk/strikeout ratio, but he hasn't come close so far putting up numbers more in line with his Yankee days than last season. He's still controlling walks well and his strikeouts, though down a bit, are at a nice number, but he's getting killed by home runs, allowing 1.91 HRs per 9 innings after allowing just 0.69 last year. The good news is that he's allowing a home run on 15.1% of all his fly balls, which is likely an outlier since it would have been the second worst in the majors among starters with at least 150 innings pitched last season, and I'm pretty sure a Phil Hughes making about his half his starts at Target Field isn't going to end up at that number. He got really lucky about home runs last year (6.2% HR/FB), but his true ability probably lies somewhere in the middle. He probably won't be as good as last year, but he'll be better than he's been thus far.
KYLE GIBSON: Gibson's ERA is down almost a full run from last season, but there are some serious red flags here. His BABIP this year is just .267, below his career average and the league average, and his runners LOB% is 75.8%, which would be a top 30 mark most seasons - both significant indicators of luck. Alarmingly his K/9 has dropped to 2.79 (from 5.37 last year) which is dead last in the majors, and his walks have jumped by 1 per nine innings at the same time to 3.86, 14th worst in the league. He's also allowing a career worst 24% line drive rate and 83.6% contact rate. Seeing as he's shown nothing at all to support his ERA improvement from last season you're looking at a serious regression candidate unless he starts missing some bats.
MIKE PELFREY: The guy who nobody wanted in the rotation except for him and his family, and Pelfrey's put up a 2.63 ERA in five starts, but don't let that fool you - he's still terrible. BABIP is .259, LOB % is 83.3%, and HR/9 is just 0.66 - there's no way this keeps up. Those numbers last season would have ranked 18th, 1st, and 18th - does Pelfrey seem like a Top 20 pitcher to you? I will say this - his 56% ground ball rate is a very good thing and his hard hit ball percentage is just 18.1%, second in the league and probably fluky but not as definitely fluky as his other peripherals I'm not buying yet, but he's throwing a ton more split fingers and sliders and isn't relying as much on the fastball, and somehow he's managed to put more than 2 mph on his fast ball compared to last year. I don't believe in Pelfrey, but I expected this paragraph to be much worse. He may actually end up a decent number 4-5 starter.
TREVOR MAY: Probably the most important of these guys given his youth and potential, May's 4.15 ERA is decent but the good news is he's probably even better than that. His BABIP is high and his LOB % is low. He's putting up a respectable 6.9 K/9 and has reigned in his massive control problems from last year to average just 1.73 walks per nine. His HR numbers are a bit fluky and he should regress there a bit, but as long as he can control his walks he should be solid. We may have something here. Get it? Control his walks? May have something? That's high comedy right there.
TOMMY MILONE: You generally don't expect much from fifth pitchers, but Milone has been more like a seventh or eighth guy so far. Among Twins' pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched he ranks last in walk rate, homer rate, FIP, and xFIP, and his ERA is second worst at 4.76. Perhaps the worst part is that Milone's BABIP is a minuscule .243 and his LOB is over 80%, so he's actually been putting up these horrid stats while getting lucky. Yuck. His control is completely out of hand with 4.37 BB/9, nearly double his career average and he's just giving up a monstrous amount of home runs. Assuming he hasn't lost it he should be better than this but he's never going to be special. A guy with a 87 mph fastball has to be pretty sharp with control and pitch mix, so it certainly is possible he's lost it. Might even work better for the Twins if he has, so they can finally get Alex Meyer up here.
So, kind of a mixed bag. Some guys should be better than they've been, some worse. Probably the kind of thing you'd expect on a team that's right around .500. And hey, maybe they'll stay there. That'd be cool.
Showing posts with label Alex Meyer. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Alex Meyer. Show all posts
Wednesday, May 6, 2015
Thursday, April 2, 2015
Twins Preview - Throwers
I really don't want to do this. The Twins' pitching has been horrible for years, and even though it might be a little bit better it's still bad and it's also boring. I guess just dive right in? Yeah ok.
Opening day starter Phil Hughes should be the ace. The Twins signed him prior to last season on the cheap, hoping he'd be a better pitcher getting out of Yankee Stadium and boy did that pay off. He slashed his walks to an insane 0.69 per 9 innings which was the third lowest mark since 1920. 1920! And he somehow managed to do that while increasing his strikeouts and giving up half as many homers per fly ball. The homers number is maybe a little fluky, but moving from Yankee Stadium to Target Field can explain a lot of that too and it's balanced by a slightly higher than it should have been BABIP.
I mean Hughes was a really, really good pitcher last year. Imagine if the Twins weren't one of the two worst fielding teams in the league last year (I can't remember the other one). Hughes' FIP, which stands for Fielding Independent Pitching and attempts to measure a pitcher based solely on things he can control, was 2.65, almost a full run lower than his ERA (that means the Twins' fielding and Hughes' luck were both really, really bad). That number was fifth among qualified starters in all of baseball. He was fifth among starters in WAR. He won 16 games on a terrible team. He finished 7th in Cy Young voting. I mean geez. I didn't even realize just how good he was.
Honestly, and it scares me to say this a little, there's really no reason not to expect him to be the same pitcher this season. None of the improvements he made are unsustainable, even if a little regression should probably be expected because that's only natural after you set an all-time freaking record for K/Walk ratio, and there's actually some room for his luck to improve. Most of the projection systems like his walk rate to about double (to a still really good number in the low 1s) and his ERA/WHIP/FIP to go up accordingly, but what if he can come closer to replicating that 0.69? Man wow. I know his extension is a bit of a risk since it's pretty much based on one season, but if he can come close to that pitcher again it'll be an absolute bargain.
After Hughes come a couple vets in new Ervin Santana and last year's new Ricky Nolasco. The latter was an unmitigated disaster, as Nolasco cashed in $12 million to put up career worsts in nearly every category to the tune of a 5.38 ERA and 1.52 WHIP, all while failing to reach 200 innings pitched. Looking into the advanced stats there's not much of a reason for optimism, though he probably won't be worse. Even so, I took him with my first pick in a horrible players fantasy league, where you're rewarded for sucking. Santana is a good signing for a contending team who needs someone in the middle of their rotation, but he doesn't make much sense for a a team like the Twins, especially if it helped push Alex Meyer and Trevor May back down to AAA. I mean, he's been a pretty good pitcher in five of the last six seasons and he'll almost certainly help the team win more games this season, but he's pretty pointless unless he's still good when this team is contending. Which will be soon, right? Whatever. The team probably thought they were signing Johan Santana anyway.
Starter four is Kyle Gibson who has pretty much lost his top prospect shine but had a pretty successful second season. He improved from his (admittedly disastrous) rookie call-up two years ago by getting better in pretty much every metric you can find. His WAR was 2.1 last season, which puts him in line with guys like Chris Tillman and Henderson Alvarez in the pretty darn good pitcher area. I'd really like to see him up his K rate to somewhere closer to what he was putting up in the minors, but you can't really argue to much with a 2:1 ground ball to fly ball ratio. He's a solid #4 or a so-so #3 with potential for more if he can whiff more dudes. Keep an eye on that.
Winning the fifth starter competition over Meyer, May, and Mike Pelfrey (who is in the bullpen in a move I'm sure will work out) is your guy Tommy Milone, who came over in the Sam Fuld trade in what was a steal because Fuld is terrible. Not that Milone is anything particularly special, but he's made himself into a serviceable major league pitcher despite a fastball that doesn't break 87 miles per hour unless there's a stiff breeze behind him. But he mixes his pitches well and generally keeps the walks down, so he's not the worst option you could have as a fifth starter - though I promise you he'll have games where he's missing his spots where you'll believe he's pretty much the worst.
That's it for the starters, so now we're on to the bullpen which is going to be awful. Glen Perkins will close of course and he's pretty awesome. I have a tendency since he's a Minnesotan on a Minnesota team (and also I'm kind of a shithead sometimes) to assume he's being locally overrated but Perkins really is an elite closer. Since he took over the closer role permanently in 2013 he ranks 9th in saves (on a terrible team), 13th in K/9, 58th in ERA, and 22nd in FIP, and 25th in WHIP among all pitchers with at least 120 innings pitched - that's pretty damn good! And he has four more extremely affordable years on his contract (including this season). I kind of love the guy, but they should probably be listening at every trade deadline. Some team in win-now mode who is desperate for a closer might do something foolish, and he's a very valuable trade chip. For now, I'm just going to love watching him, and he's young enough he could be the closer when the team is in contention again (they will!), but you know, think about it.
I'm not saying shop him, not at all. I'm just saying if say, the Dodgers and their bottomless pit of money find themselves in a dogfight for the division they could come sniffing around. What if Kenley Jansen's injury festers and he's out all year, and terrible Brandon League and unproven Chris Hatcher aren't getting the job done? Between Perkins's skills, proven closer status, and super nice contract he'd be an attractive option. Maybe you can pry Kyle Seager or Julio Urias away. That would be pretty stupid on the Dodgers' end, but that doesn't mean it can't happen. They have a super deep farm system and they clearly want to win and they want to win now.
Casey Fien will be the main setup guy after another pretty good year even if he did slip a bit. It's a smidge disconcerting, however, that his K/9 dropped from 10.6 in 2013 to 7.3 in 2014. His velocity was actually up so there's a decent chance this was just a weird blip, but there was also a huge jump in contact rate. Keep an eye on this guy.
Brian Duensing was brought back for some reason and he'll be the sole non-Perkins lefty even though he's really quite terrible at pitching. He has been decent at getting lefties out in his career, but his inability to strike anyone out drives me crazy and he should never, ever pitch to right-handed batters. I really don't know why they tendered him other than continuity and familiarity which, as you know, the Twins value to an absurd degree. I'd rather just roll the dice on Caleb Thielbar. Granted in his two seasons he's shown reverse splits and if the Twins looked at that then bravo, but I guess I don't buy the front office is that sophisticated. There aren't really any other in house options for a lefty bullpen guy which is sad in and of itself, but there's always plenty of crappy lefty arms out there you could probably snag for a minor league deal. In the long run I suppose it doesn't matter, but giving $2.7 million to a terrible Duensing is kind of gross.
The rest of the bullpen is pretty much a mess. Tim Stauffer is a failed starter who's dealt with a couple of really significant injuries and he's probably the best of the group. Mike Pelfrey is absolutely terrible and should be released but instead the Twins are putting him in the pen which also pissed him off, so this is just a great situation all around. J.R. Graham pretty much made the team because he was a Rule 5 pick and has to be on the big league roster or be sent back to his original team, and I literally have no idea who Blaine Boyer is. This is not an impressive collection of arms, and to make it even worse the only guy in the entire bullpen who is under 30 is Graham. It's a group of old, failed pitchers. I prefer my bullpen made up of hard throwing young guys with at least one who isn't sure where the ball might be going all the time. That's fun. This is a garbage fire.
It's not like the team's going anywhere anyway. You could roll with 25-year old Michael Tonkin, 25-year old Stephen Pryor, 26-year old Lester Oliveros, 22-year old Nick Burdi, and 22-year old Jake Reed and be just as well off, if not better, and it would be a lot more fun. Or hell, throw Meyer and/or May into the pen to start like the way the Orioles have handled Kevin Gausman. I don't know. I'm not entirely certain this team has a coherent plan beyond "waiting for 2016 and hoping all the prospects are good" but whatever.
All in all, the starters could be decent this year, and will most likely be the best the Twins have had in a few years. The bullpen, however, is going to blow a lot of games.
Opening day starter Phil Hughes should be the ace. The Twins signed him prior to last season on the cheap, hoping he'd be a better pitcher getting out of Yankee Stadium and boy did that pay off. He slashed his walks to an insane 0.69 per 9 innings which was the third lowest mark since 1920. 1920! And he somehow managed to do that while increasing his strikeouts and giving up half as many homers per fly ball. The homers number is maybe a little fluky, but moving from Yankee Stadium to Target Field can explain a lot of that too and it's balanced by a slightly higher than it should have been BABIP.
I mean Hughes was a really, really good pitcher last year. Imagine if the Twins weren't one of the two worst fielding teams in the league last year (I can't remember the other one). Hughes' FIP, which stands for Fielding Independent Pitching and attempts to measure a pitcher based solely on things he can control, was 2.65, almost a full run lower than his ERA (that means the Twins' fielding and Hughes' luck were both really, really bad). That number was fifth among qualified starters in all of baseball. He was fifth among starters in WAR. He won 16 games on a terrible team. He finished 7th in Cy Young voting. I mean geez. I didn't even realize just how good he was.
Honestly, and it scares me to say this a little, there's really no reason not to expect him to be the same pitcher this season. None of the improvements he made are unsustainable, even if a little regression should probably be expected because that's only natural after you set an all-time freaking record for K/Walk ratio, and there's actually some room for his luck to improve. Most of the projection systems like his walk rate to about double (to a still really good number in the low 1s) and his ERA/WHIP/FIP to go up accordingly, but what if he can come closer to replicating that 0.69? Man wow. I know his extension is a bit of a risk since it's pretty much based on one season, but if he can come close to that pitcher again it'll be an absolute bargain.
After Hughes come a couple vets in new Ervin Santana and last year's new Ricky Nolasco. The latter was an unmitigated disaster, as Nolasco cashed in $12 million to put up career worsts in nearly every category to the tune of a 5.38 ERA and 1.52 WHIP, all while failing to reach 200 innings pitched. Looking into the advanced stats there's not much of a reason for optimism, though he probably won't be worse. Even so, I took him with my first pick in a horrible players fantasy league, where you're rewarded for sucking. Santana is a good signing for a contending team who needs someone in the middle of their rotation, but he doesn't make much sense for a a team like the Twins, especially if it helped push Alex Meyer and Trevor May back down to AAA. I mean, he's been a pretty good pitcher in five of the last six seasons and he'll almost certainly help the team win more games this season, but he's pretty pointless unless he's still good when this team is contending. Which will be soon, right? Whatever. The team probably thought they were signing Johan Santana anyway.
Starter four is Kyle Gibson who has pretty much lost his top prospect shine but had a pretty successful second season. He improved from his (admittedly disastrous) rookie call-up two years ago by getting better in pretty much every metric you can find. His WAR was 2.1 last season, which puts him in line with guys like Chris Tillman and Henderson Alvarez in the pretty darn good pitcher area. I'd really like to see him up his K rate to somewhere closer to what he was putting up in the minors, but you can't really argue to much with a 2:1 ground ball to fly ball ratio. He's a solid #4 or a so-so #3 with potential for more if he can whiff more dudes. Keep an eye on that.
Winning the fifth starter competition over Meyer, May, and Mike Pelfrey (who is in the bullpen in a move I'm sure will work out) is your guy Tommy Milone, who came over in the Sam Fuld trade in what was a steal because Fuld is terrible. Not that Milone is anything particularly special, but he's made himself into a serviceable major league pitcher despite a fastball that doesn't break 87 miles per hour unless there's a stiff breeze behind him. But he mixes his pitches well and generally keeps the walks down, so he's not the worst option you could have as a fifth starter - though I promise you he'll have games where he's missing his spots where you'll believe he's pretty much the worst.
That's it for the starters, so now we're on to the bullpen which is going to be awful. Glen Perkins will close of course and he's pretty awesome. I have a tendency since he's a Minnesotan on a Minnesota team (and also I'm kind of a shithead sometimes) to assume he's being locally overrated but Perkins really is an elite closer. Since he took over the closer role permanently in 2013 he ranks 9th in saves (on a terrible team), 13th in K/9, 58th in ERA, and 22nd in FIP, and 25th in WHIP among all pitchers with at least 120 innings pitched - that's pretty damn good! And he has four more extremely affordable years on his contract (including this season). I kind of love the guy, but they should probably be listening at every trade deadline. Some team in win-now mode who is desperate for a closer might do something foolish, and he's a very valuable trade chip. For now, I'm just going to love watching him, and he's young enough he could be the closer when the team is in contention again (they will!), but you know, think about it.
I'm not saying shop him, not at all. I'm just saying if say, the Dodgers and their bottomless pit of money find themselves in a dogfight for the division they could come sniffing around. What if Kenley Jansen's injury festers and he's out all year, and terrible Brandon League and unproven Chris Hatcher aren't getting the job done? Between Perkins's skills, proven closer status, and super nice contract he'd be an attractive option. Maybe you can pry Kyle Seager or Julio Urias away. That would be pretty stupid on the Dodgers' end, but that doesn't mean it can't happen. They have a super deep farm system and they clearly want to win and they want to win now.
Casey Fien will be the main setup guy after another pretty good year even if he did slip a bit. It's a smidge disconcerting, however, that his K/9 dropped from 10.6 in 2013 to 7.3 in 2014. His velocity was actually up so there's a decent chance this was just a weird blip, but there was also a huge jump in contact rate. Keep an eye on this guy.
Brian Duensing was brought back for some reason and he'll be the sole non-Perkins lefty even though he's really quite terrible at pitching. He has been decent at getting lefties out in his career, but his inability to strike anyone out drives me crazy and he should never, ever pitch to right-handed batters. I really don't know why they tendered him other than continuity and familiarity which, as you know, the Twins value to an absurd degree. I'd rather just roll the dice on Caleb Thielbar. Granted in his two seasons he's shown reverse splits and if the Twins looked at that then bravo, but I guess I don't buy the front office is that sophisticated. There aren't really any other in house options for a lefty bullpen guy which is sad in and of itself, but there's always plenty of crappy lefty arms out there you could probably snag for a minor league deal. In the long run I suppose it doesn't matter, but giving $2.7 million to a terrible Duensing is kind of gross.
The rest of the bullpen is pretty much a mess. Tim Stauffer is a failed starter who's dealt with a couple of really significant injuries and he's probably the best of the group. Mike Pelfrey is absolutely terrible and should be released but instead the Twins are putting him in the pen which also pissed him off, so this is just a great situation all around. J.R. Graham pretty much made the team because he was a Rule 5 pick and has to be on the big league roster or be sent back to his original team, and I literally have no idea who Blaine Boyer is. This is not an impressive collection of arms, and to make it even worse the only guy in the entire bullpen who is under 30 is Graham. It's a group of old, failed pitchers. I prefer my bullpen made up of hard throwing young guys with at least one who isn't sure where the ball might be going all the time. That's fun. This is a garbage fire.
It's not like the team's going anywhere anyway. You could roll with 25-year old Michael Tonkin, 25-year old Stephen Pryor, 26-year old Lester Oliveros, 22-year old Nick Burdi, and 22-year old Jake Reed and be just as well off, if not better, and it would be a lot more fun. Or hell, throw Meyer and/or May into the pen to start like the way the Orioles have handled Kevin Gausman. I don't know. I'm not entirely certain this team has a coherent plan beyond "waiting for 2016 and hoping all the prospects are good" but whatever.
All in all, the starters could be decent this year, and will most likely be the best the Twins have had in a few years. The bullpen, however, is going to blow a lot of games.
Monday, June 24, 2013
Welcome to the Bigs, Kyle Gibson
Well it's finally happened. The day we've all been waiting for - Kyle Gibson is coming to Minneapolis with his debut scheduled for Saturday against the Royals and James Shields. By all accounts Gibson's fastball is back to the lower mid-90s where it was before he had Tommy John surgery, and with his plus slider and change I think it's been clear it's time to get Gibson to Target Field. He's put up an ERA of 3.11 this year (FIP 2.96) and has struck out 7.67 batters per nine while walking 2.72 - all numbers in line with where he was prior to his injury. Since the Super 2 deadline has passed and at this point the Twins' will control Gibson until 2019 no matter when they call him up now, the time is right.
It will be interesting - and exciting - to watch a pitcher who can actually strike out somewhere in the neighborhood of a batter per inning, but there is a big part of me that worries the Twins will try to turn him into their preferred (for some reason) mold of a strike thrower pitch to contact type, although it does look like they're actually putting their money where their mouth is when they talk about being ok with walks in exchange for more power pitching. Since 2008, only two Twins pitchers threw at least 150 innings in a season and finished with 2.5 or more walks per nine (Francisco Liriano in 2010 and Brian Duensing in 2011). This season, the Twins look like they'll have at least one if not more with Mike Pelfrey at 2.7, Vance Worley at 2.8, Sam Deduno at 3.2, and Scott Diamond not too far off the pace at 2.0. Gibson's walk numbers should fit right in, although he should strike out significantly more batters.
Since Gibson is coming up, it's worth checking in on a couple other "power pitcher" prospects the Twins acquired - Trevor May (in the Ben Revere trade) and Alex Meyer (in the Denard Span trade). May was always the kind of guy you think about when somebody uses the phrase "he's a thrower not a pitcher" and as such could actually use a little tweak towards striking out fewer in order to walk fewer if you want him to end up a starter, as long as it didn't go too far. He seems to have made some strides from earlier in his minor league career and although his Ks are down a bit from last year his walks are down as well, although at 4.2 BB/9 that's still awfully high but manageable if he can keep his strikeouts high (see: Gio Gonzalez, Matt Moore, and Ryan Dempster). With an ERA of 3.68 and WHIP of 1.43 I don't see May advancing past AA this year, and that's fine. There's nothing here that is concerning to me and I'd say he's doing what you'd expect.
Meyer, with May at New Britain, is working his way back from a shoulder injury, which frankly terrifies me because of the Twins' history with arm injuries. Prior to that, however, he was having a similar year to May with high strikeout totals (10.8 per 9) balanced by high walk totals (4.0 per 9) resulting in a decent ERA (3.68) and WHIP (1.31), all of which looking pretty solid for a 23-year old in AA for the first time. Like May, I don't see him advancing a level at any point this year, particularly with the injury, but he seems to be progressing fine through the system and will hopefully close strongly enough to start the year at AAA next year. Neither Meyer or May has been spectacular this year, but they haven't done anything to discourage Twins' fans either.
One last pitcher worth mentioning is Jose "J.O." Berrios, the dude the Twins drafted at the end of teh first round in 2012 out of a Puerto Rican High School. He put up outstanding numbers last year at both Rookie Clubs (combined ERA of 1.17 and K/BB of 49/4) earning himself a promotion to low-A Cedar Rapids this year where he made the league's all-star team. In nine starts this year he has notched an ERA of 3.17 with 56 Ks vs. 15 walks, outstanding numbers for a 19 year old. Although he's young, it wouldn't surprise me to see him at high A or even AA to start next season.
Now, potential is one thing and results another, just ask the Kansas City Royals, but the Twins' seem well positioned with these four prospects going forward. Berrios is the only one who hasn't been on a Top 100 Prospect List, but with only one year under his belt if he finishes this year strong he'll have a shot. Add in Kohl Stewart and suddenly a major weakness - starting pitching prospects - has become a strength. The future is bright, but let's hope we're looking at a Tampa kid of future rather than a Kansas City one.
Stupid Royals.
It will be interesting - and exciting - to watch a pitcher who can actually strike out somewhere in the neighborhood of a batter per inning, but there is a big part of me that worries the Twins will try to turn him into their preferred (for some reason) mold of a strike thrower pitch to contact type, although it does look like they're actually putting their money where their mouth is when they talk about being ok with walks in exchange for more power pitching. Since 2008, only two Twins pitchers threw at least 150 innings in a season and finished with 2.5 or more walks per nine (Francisco Liriano in 2010 and Brian Duensing in 2011). This season, the Twins look like they'll have at least one if not more with Mike Pelfrey at 2.7, Vance Worley at 2.8, Sam Deduno at 3.2, and Scott Diamond not too far off the pace at 2.0. Gibson's walk numbers should fit right in, although he should strike out significantly more batters.
Since Gibson is coming up, it's worth checking in on a couple other "power pitcher" prospects the Twins acquired - Trevor May (in the Ben Revere trade) and Alex Meyer (in the Denard Span trade). May was always the kind of guy you think about when somebody uses the phrase "he's a thrower not a pitcher" and as such could actually use a little tweak towards striking out fewer in order to walk fewer if you want him to end up a starter, as long as it didn't go too far. He seems to have made some strides from earlier in his minor league career and although his Ks are down a bit from last year his walks are down as well, although at 4.2 BB/9 that's still awfully high but manageable if he can keep his strikeouts high (see: Gio Gonzalez, Matt Moore, and Ryan Dempster). With an ERA of 3.68 and WHIP of 1.43 I don't see May advancing past AA this year, and that's fine. There's nothing here that is concerning to me and I'd say he's doing what you'd expect.
Meyer, with May at New Britain, is working his way back from a shoulder injury, which frankly terrifies me because of the Twins' history with arm injuries. Prior to that, however, he was having a similar year to May with high strikeout totals (10.8 per 9) balanced by high walk totals (4.0 per 9) resulting in a decent ERA (3.68) and WHIP (1.31), all of which looking pretty solid for a 23-year old in AA for the first time. Like May, I don't see him advancing a level at any point this year, particularly with the injury, but he seems to be progressing fine through the system and will hopefully close strongly enough to start the year at AAA next year. Neither Meyer or May has been spectacular this year, but they haven't done anything to discourage Twins' fans either.
One last pitcher worth mentioning is Jose "J.O." Berrios, the dude the Twins drafted at the end of teh first round in 2012 out of a Puerto Rican High School. He put up outstanding numbers last year at both Rookie Clubs (combined ERA of 1.17 and K/BB of 49/4) earning himself a promotion to low-A Cedar Rapids this year where he made the league's all-star team. In nine starts this year he has notched an ERA of 3.17 with 56 Ks vs. 15 walks, outstanding numbers for a 19 year old. Although he's young, it wouldn't surprise me to see him at high A or even AA to start next season.
Now, potential is one thing and results another, just ask the Kansas City Royals, but the Twins' seem well positioned with these four prospects going forward. Berrios is the only one who hasn't been on a Top 100 Prospect List, but with only one year under his belt if he finishes this year strong he'll have a shot. Add in Kohl Stewart and suddenly a major weakness - starting pitching prospects - has become a strength. The future is bright, but let's hope we're looking at a Tampa kid of future rather than a Kansas City one.
Stupid Royals.
Sunday, December 9, 2012
Fare thee Well, Ben Revere
The Twins, taking my advice and not standing pat, continued making moves at the Winter Meetings to improve pitching in the organization, a desperate and drastic need, this time shipping out Ben Revere to the Phillies for a couple of young arms, and in a Shyamalanian twist the return they got for him looks more impressive than what they got for his predecessor (mentor? elder?) Denard Span.
I was a little bit surprised they would trade Revere since it seeded like such a natural thing to slide him into Span's spot, but it makes a lot of sense. Revere is an elite fielder and has elite speed, but his lack of power, noodle arm, and questionable plate discipline were all major questions. With his high rate of contact and slap hitting plus the speed and no power Revere's upside was pretty much Juan Pierre, which is fine, but when you have a chance to move a possible next Pierre for two good arms under 25 you pretty much have to do it. When you also factor in that Aaron Hicks is a year away and considered a better prospect, not to mention eight billion other OFers who make up practically the Twins' entire top prospects list, it becomes a no brainer.
In getting Vance Worley from the Phillies the Twins' pick up a major league ready arm who still has upside, which is exactly what I'd hoped they'd end up getting by trading Span (although I am happy with the return they ended up getting for Denard). Worley has been in the rotation for the Phils for the past two seasons (most of the time) and has put up an ERA of 3.60 with a WHIP of 1.37 those two years while striking out 7.7 batters per 9 innings, a stat I can only assume that confused the Twins since they hate striking guys out. Worley isn't really a pure strikeout guy since his fastball maxes out in the low 90s (more like exactly 90, really) and he doesn't have a killer strikeout pitch (and actually his contact rate of 86.2% is about what Carl Pavano's was in his days as a Twin so it doesn't really make sense he strikes out nearly a batter an inning. There are plenty of pitchers, however, who continue to defy what their peripheral stats say they should morph into at some point so it wouldn't be unprecedented for him to keep this up. In any case it's not something to worry about. Worley is a 25 year old middle-of-the-rotation starter who is now either the Twins' best or second best starter, depending on your feelings about Scott Diamond. At that age there's still room for him to get better, and Worley would have been an acceptable return for Revere (or Span), but the Twins' got more. Plus, dude rocks the Rec Specs. Holla.
Perhaps because Worley is coming off elbow surgery (although should be just fine) the Twins were also able to finagle Trevor May in the deal, and this my friends is one intriguing prospect. Both Baseball America and MinorLeagueBall.com listed May as the Phillies #1 prospect coming into last year on the strength of a mid-90s fastball and some ridiculous strikeout rates (11 K/9 or better in every stop after rookie ball). He hit Double-A this year and things were a little rougher, posting an ERA of 4.87 and a WHIP of 1.45, although he still struck out more than a batter per inning (9.1 per 9). By all accounts May was struggling with location, which manifested itself both in more walks (4.7 per nine) and hits allowed (8.4 per nine). Interestingly, the 4.7 BB/9 was worse than the previous year, but was still better than 2008, 2009, and 2010 - the increased hits allowed is the real concern. Given the Twins' relative success in developing pitchers with control - although generally that manifests more as few walks rather than pinpoint control - I'm cautiously optimistic. In any case, dude has #1 stuff by all accounts and despite the issues with his command last year he's still considered the Twins #5 overall prospect by MLB.com (Sano/Buxton/Meyer/Hicks/May). Awesome.
Looking at the two trades, let's count the positives:
1. Traded a good, not great, player, but at a position where a MLB ready back-up was available with a comparable skill set to upgrade a position of weakness
2. Traded a low cost, quality but limited player for two badly needed assets with a replacement a year away.
3. Acquired a low cost, team controlled middle-of-the rotation (2-3-4 depending on development) starter under the age of 25.
4. Acquired 2 big-time prospects with the potential to develop #1 type stuff who aren't soft-tossing nancy boys and actually show an interest in making people swing and miss.
5. Recognized the team's biggest weakness (pitching throughout the organization) and biggest area of depth (Young OFers) and moved one for the other.
6. Recognized that occasionally it's good to have pitchers who throw the ball so hard that professional hitters can't catch up to hit and/or have so much movement they can't hit it.
And the negatives:
1. Denard Span was a true leadoff hitter with a lead-off hitter skill set who was very affordable.
2. Ben Revere was really fun to watch and a good guy who was super duper affordable.
3. Darin Mastroianni will probably have to play CF now and maybe even lead-off too which is kind of gross.
That's all I got. There's really no way to hate these trades, especially the Revere one. The team upgraded it's biggest weakness (organization wide) by using it's biggest strength without hurting the future, only the present where they weren't going to contend anyway, while acquiring the exact type of player they're shied away from which has proven to be the type that can make a major difference. Freaking awesome. Even that Mastroianni crack was a little overdone, because he's not that big a drop from Revere. Using WAR (and I confess I don't know what this means other than it tries to measure total value and is impacted by plate appearances) Revere was a 3.4 in 553 PAs, Mastroianni was a 1.5 in just 186. Game freaking on, brohan. We goin' Sizzla.
As far as the Gophers won pretty easily in LA, beating USC 71-57 by doing what they've done all year: tough perimeter defense (USC 1-9 on 3s, hitting the boards (out-rebounded the Trojans 36-29), turned over the opponent (17 TOs), and moved the ball (16 assists). Since the game was on the Pac-10 Network which nobody in Minneapolis gets and I went to the bar with Bogart, Bear, Snake, Dawger, and Crazy Eddie instead of staying in and watching it on my computer I don't really have much else to say. They're now poised to crusie to wins over NDSU and LaFayette and go into their December 31 game against Michigan State at 12-1 and likely ranked in or near the Top 10. Michigan State at home is pretty much the perfect test for this team if you want to know where they stand. If they're as good as I think they are they should handle Sparty at home. If they don't, you know we're looking at fool's gold once again. Pretty much the biggest game in Gopher history since the Final Four. No biggie.
I was a little bit surprised they would trade Revere since it seeded like such a natural thing to slide him into Span's spot, but it makes a lot of sense. Revere is an elite fielder and has elite speed, but his lack of power, noodle arm, and questionable plate discipline were all major questions. With his high rate of contact and slap hitting plus the speed and no power Revere's upside was pretty much Juan Pierre, which is fine, but when you have a chance to move a possible next Pierre for two good arms under 25 you pretty much have to do it. When you also factor in that Aaron Hicks is a year away and considered a better prospect, not to mention eight billion other OFers who make up practically the Twins' entire top prospects list, it becomes a no brainer.
In getting Vance Worley from the Phillies the Twins' pick up a major league ready arm who still has upside, which is exactly what I'd hoped they'd end up getting by trading Span (although I am happy with the return they ended up getting for Denard). Worley has been in the rotation for the Phils for the past two seasons (most of the time) and has put up an ERA of 3.60 with a WHIP of 1.37 those two years while striking out 7.7 batters per 9 innings, a stat I can only assume that confused the Twins since they hate striking guys out. Worley isn't really a pure strikeout guy since his fastball maxes out in the low 90s (more like exactly 90, really) and he doesn't have a killer strikeout pitch (and actually his contact rate of 86.2% is about what Carl Pavano's was in his days as a Twin so it doesn't really make sense he strikes out nearly a batter an inning. There are plenty of pitchers, however, who continue to defy what their peripheral stats say they should morph into at some point so it wouldn't be unprecedented for him to keep this up. In any case it's not something to worry about. Worley is a 25 year old middle-of-the-rotation starter who is now either the Twins' best or second best starter, depending on your feelings about Scott Diamond. At that age there's still room for him to get better, and Worley would have been an acceptable return for Revere (or Span), but the Twins' got more. Plus, dude rocks the Rec Specs. Holla.
 |
| NERD. ALERT. |
Perhaps because Worley is coming off elbow surgery (although should be just fine) the Twins were also able to finagle Trevor May in the deal, and this my friends is one intriguing prospect. Both Baseball America and MinorLeagueBall.com listed May as the Phillies #1 prospect coming into last year on the strength of a mid-90s fastball and some ridiculous strikeout rates (11 K/9 or better in every stop after rookie ball). He hit Double-A this year and things were a little rougher, posting an ERA of 4.87 and a WHIP of 1.45, although he still struck out more than a batter per inning (9.1 per 9). By all accounts May was struggling with location, which manifested itself both in more walks (4.7 per nine) and hits allowed (8.4 per nine). Interestingly, the 4.7 BB/9 was worse than the previous year, but was still better than 2008, 2009, and 2010 - the increased hits allowed is the real concern. Given the Twins' relative success in developing pitchers with control - although generally that manifests more as few walks rather than pinpoint control - I'm cautiously optimistic. In any case, dude has #1 stuff by all accounts and despite the issues with his command last year he's still considered the Twins #5 overall prospect by MLB.com (Sano/Buxton/Meyer/Hicks/May). Awesome.
Looking at the two trades, let's count the positives:
1. Traded a good, not great, player, but at a position where a MLB ready back-up was available with a comparable skill set to upgrade a position of weakness
2. Traded a low cost, quality but limited player for two badly needed assets with a replacement a year away.
3. Acquired a low cost, team controlled middle-of-the rotation (2-3-4 depending on development) starter under the age of 25.
4. Acquired 2 big-time prospects with the potential to develop #1 type stuff who aren't soft-tossing nancy boys and actually show an interest in making people swing and miss.
5. Recognized the team's biggest weakness (pitching throughout the organization) and biggest area of depth (Young OFers) and moved one for the other.
6. Recognized that occasionally it's good to have pitchers who throw the ball so hard that professional hitters can't catch up to hit and/or have so much movement they can't hit it.
And the negatives:
1. Denard Span was a true leadoff hitter with a lead-off hitter skill set who was very affordable.
2. Ben Revere was really fun to watch and a good guy who was super duper affordable.
3. Darin Mastroianni will probably have to play CF now and maybe even lead-off too which is kind of gross.
That's all I got. There's really no way to hate these trades, especially the Revere one. The team upgraded it's biggest weakness (organization wide) by using it's biggest strength without hurting the future, only the present where they weren't going to contend anyway, while acquiring the exact type of player they're shied away from which has proven to be the type that can make a major difference. Freaking awesome. Even that Mastroianni crack was a little overdone, because he's not that big a drop from Revere. Using WAR (and I confess I don't know what this means other than it tries to measure total value and is impacted by plate appearances) Revere was a 3.4 in 553 PAs, Mastroianni was a 1.5 in just 186. Game freaking on, brohan. We goin' Sizzla.
As far as the Gophers won pretty easily in LA, beating USC 71-57 by doing what they've done all year: tough perimeter defense (USC 1-9 on 3s, hitting the boards (out-rebounded the Trojans 36-29), turned over the opponent (17 TOs), and moved the ball (16 assists). Since the game was on the Pac-10 Network which nobody in Minneapolis gets and I went to the bar with Bogart, Bear, Snake, Dawger, and Crazy Eddie instead of staying in and watching it on my computer I don't really have much else to say. They're now poised to crusie to wins over NDSU and LaFayette and go into their December 31 game against Michigan State at 12-1 and likely ranked in or near the Top 10. Michigan State at home is pretty much the perfect test for this team if you want to know where they stand. If they're as good as I think they are they should handle Sparty at home. If they don't, you know we're looking at fool's gold once again. Pretty much the biggest game in Gopher history since the Final Four. No biggie.
Sunday, December 2, 2012
Fare thee Well, Denard Span
As I'm certain everyone is aware by now the Twins traded Denard Span late last week to the Nationals for minor league pitching prospect Alex Meyer. At first blush I was down on the trade, having hoped the Twins could turn the talented Span into a MLB ready mid-rotation starter type (like Jeremy Hellickson, for example) but the more I've read about it and spent time thinking about the move the more I like it.
Meyer (and you can read more about him here at Aaron Gleeman's blog or Keith Law at ESPN or really anywhere they talk Twins) is a former first round pick who lit up A and A+ ball in his first pro season last year. He's already 22 so the good numbers are not surprising for an older player at that level, but that also means that he should progress through the system fairly rapidly, hopefully landing at AAA at some point this coming season and then ready for the rotation in 2014. He throws in the mid-90s and can touch 100 at times (which means his downside is likely a pretty good reliever although hopefully it doesn't come to that) and has what one scout I read somewhere called "a truly filthy slider." He's working on a change-up as a third pitch that apparently "could become average" which doesn't sound great but as a third pitch is just fine when he already has two plus pitches. Even better, he struck out more than a batter an inning which means the Twins have recognized that having soft-tossing strike throwers is fine, but you can't have those exclusively and need some power arms. With Meyer, Kyle Gibson, and a couple of the guys they drafted this year they seem to at least be recognizing that fact. I also heard that Meyer is now the #1 pitching prospect in the system, ahead of Gibson. He's a really, really good get for the team.
Losing Span certainly hurts (he was one of my favorites after Kubel left), but a move with him had to made. He's one of the sickeningly few attractive trade pieces this team has with his elite leadoff skills, quality defense, and team friendly contract and the Twins need to rebuild the entire organization at this point. With Revere ready to step in now and hopefully Aaron Hicks in two years the Twins already have guys who have the potential to replace Span's skillset. Revere is a better outfielder already and has increased his OBP each of the last two seasons, reaching .333 in 2012 which was just shy of Span's number (.342) and actually better than Denard's OBP in 2011, and Hicks is supposed to be even better. Add in the organizational depth of top prospects in the outfield (Buxton, Arcia, Rosario, even Joe Benson plus Hicks) and it was a no brainer to get the best they could for Span, and it looks like they got a pretty good return, even if it's a lottery ticket of sorts.
From here I can see two viable directions for the Twins to go in. On one hand, you say, this team and organization is broken, time to rebuild. Trade every asset for whatever you can get. Willingham should certainly bring a decent package, and for the right team needing a first baseman Justin Morneau would be attractive - although in his case you're probably better off waiting for this year's trade deadline when other team's needs seem more urgent and hopefully he can show he's all the way (or nearly) back. I don't know if they have anybody else they could possibly trade (Doumit?). Maybe Glen Perkins if he gets a bunch of saves and somebody is desperate for a lefty reliever. It's also possible they see Perkins as their closer of the future (hint: he's not) and won't shop him, but they should if they go in this direction.
The other way to go is to try to sign the right mix of players to turn this into a competitive team, which basically means pitching. With Span gone that gives them somewhere in the neighborhood of $30 million in payroll to play with, based on their comment about a payroll target for this year. You can do some good things and become a competitive team in this horrible division for that kind of money. You could sign Brandon McCarthy ($5 mil), Edwin Jackson ($11 mil), Kevin Correia ($5 mil), and like, Marco Scutaro ($8 mil). I don't know how long you'd want to/have to extend those guys, but then you're looking at this lineup:
CF Revere
2b Scutaro
C Mauer
LF Willingham
1B Morneau
DH Doumit
3B Plouffe
RF Parmalee
SS Dozier
Not bad. Don't forget the Twins had a solid offensive team last year, and this is a pretty similar look with Revere in for Span and Scutaro in for Casilla. That's a net win.
And here's your rotation:
1. Jackson
2. McCarthy
3. Diamond
4. Correia
5. Deduno/Devries/Hendriks, etc.
Certainly better than last year.
Can that team, assuming an adequate bullpen which admittedly is a pretty big assumption, compete in the AL Central? Probably for second place, and they aren't going to be in the Wild Card race.
I can see, and make an argument for, either approach. I would probably prefer to trade away everybody and try to remake the entire team, but I can also see something like the above to stay competitive to keep bringing the rubes to the park and pocketing that sweet cash to hopefully re-invest in the team. Naturally, the Twins will probably do something like sign Freddy Garcia and Derek Lowe and Wilson Valdez and Austin Kearns and call it a day, not making any moves for the future nor significantly upgrading the team and ending up sucking again while not building for the future.
Then again, Terry Ryan is back instead of Bill Smith, so there's some reason for optimism. Either way, it's going to be an interesting off-season. Actually it already has been. Do more, Terry.
Meyer (and you can read more about him here at Aaron Gleeman's blog or Keith Law at ESPN or really anywhere they talk Twins) is a former first round pick who lit up A and A+ ball in his first pro season last year. He's already 22 so the good numbers are not surprising for an older player at that level, but that also means that he should progress through the system fairly rapidly, hopefully landing at AAA at some point this coming season and then ready for the rotation in 2014. He throws in the mid-90s and can touch 100 at times (which means his downside is likely a pretty good reliever although hopefully it doesn't come to that) and has what one scout I read somewhere called "a truly filthy slider." He's working on a change-up as a third pitch that apparently "could become average" which doesn't sound great but as a third pitch is just fine when he already has two plus pitches. Even better, he struck out more than a batter an inning which means the Twins have recognized that having soft-tossing strike throwers is fine, but you can't have those exclusively and need some power arms. With Meyer, Kyle Gibson, and a couple of the guys they drafted this year they seem to at least be recognizing that fact. I also heard that Meyer is now the #1 pitching prospect in the system, ahead of Gibson. He's a really, really good get for the team.
Losing Span certainly hurts (he was one of my favorites after Kubel left), but a move with him had to made. He's one of the sickeningly few attractive trade pieces this team has with his elite leadoff skills, quality defense, and team friendly contract and the Twins need to rebuild the entire organization at this point. With Revere ready to step in now and hopefully Aaron Hicks in two years the Twins already have guys who have the potential to replace Span's skillset. Revere is a better outfielder already and has increased his OBP each of the last two seasons, reaching .333 in 2012 which was just shy of Span's number (.342) and actually better than Denard's OBP in 2011, and Hicks is supposed to be even better. Add in the organizational depth of top prospects in the outfield (Buxton, Arcia, Rosario, even Joe Benson plus Hicks) and it was a no brainer to get the best they could for Span, and it looks like they got a pretty good return, even if it's a lottery ticket of sorts.
From here I can see two viable directions for the Twins to go in. On one hand, you say, this team and organization is broken, time to rebuild. Trade every asset for whatever you can get. Willingham should certainly bring a decent package, and for the right team needing a first baseman Justin Morneau would be attractive - although in his case you're probably better off waiting for this year's trade deadline when other team's needs seem more urgent and hopefully he can show he's all the way (or nearly) back. I don't know if they have anybody else they could possibly trade (Doumit?). Maybe Glen Perkins if he gets a bunch of saves and somebody is desperate for a lefty reliever. It's also possible they see Perkins as their closer of the future (hint: he's not) and won't shop him, but they should if they go in this direction.
The other way to go is to try to sign the right mix of players to turn this into a competitive team, which basically means pitching. With Span gone that gives them somewhere in the neighborhood of $30 million in payroll to play with, based on their comment about a payroll target for this year. You can do some good things and become a competitive team in this horrible division for that kind of money. You could sign Brandon McCarthy ($5 mil), Edwin Jackson ($11 mil), Kevin Correia ($5 mil), and like, Marco Scutaro ($8 mil). I don't know how long you'd want to/have to extend those guys, but then you're looking at this lineup:
CF Revere
2b Scutaro
C Mauer
LF Willingham
1B Morneau
DH Doumit
3B Plouffe
RF Parmalee
SS Dozier
Not bad. Don't forget the Twins had a solid offensive team last year, and this is a pretty similar look with Revere in for Span and Scutaro in for Casilla. That's a net win.
And here's your rotation:
1. Jackson
2. McCarthy
3. Diamond
4. Correia
5. Deduno/Devries/Hendriks, etc.
Certainly better than last year.
Can that team, assuming an adequate bullpen which admittedly is a pretty big assumption, compete in the AL Central? Probably for second place, and they aren't going to be in the Wild Card race.
I can see, and make an argument for, either approach. I would probably prefer to trade away everybody and try to remake the entire team, but I can also see something like the above to stay competitive to keep bringing the rubes to the park and pocketing that sweet cash to hopefully re-invest in the team. Naturally, the Twins will probably do something like sign Freddy Garcia and Derek Lowe and Wilson Valdez and Austin Kearns and call it a day, not making any moves for the future nor significantly upgrading the team and ending up sucking again while not building for the future.
Then again, Terry Ryan is back instead of Bill Smith, so there's some reason for optimism. Either way, it's going to be an interesting off-season. Actually it already has been. Do more, Terry.
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